Search results for: flood risk perception

Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Scott Andersen

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Perhaps simply and rather unadornedly, consciousness is having multiple goals for action and the continuously adjudication of such goals to implement action, referred to as the Maps of Meaning (MoM) Consciousness Theory. The MoM theory triangulates through three parallel corollaries, action (behavior), mechanism (morphology/pathophysiology), and goals (teleology). (1) An organism’s consciousness contains a fluid, nested goals. These goals are not intentionality, but intersectionality, embodiment meeting the world. i.e., Darwinian inclusive fitness or randomization, then survival of the fittest. These goals form via gradual descent under inclusive fitness, the goals being the abstraction of a ‘match’ between the evolutionary environment and organism. Human consciousness implements the brain efficiency hypothesis, genetics, epigenetics, and experience crystallize efficiencies, not necessitating best or objective but fitness, i.e., perceived efficiency based on one’s adaptive environment. These efficiencies are objectively arbitrary, but determine the operation and level of one’s consciousness, termed extreme thrownness. Since inclusive fitness drives efficiencies in physiologic mechanism, morphology and behavior (action) and originates one’s goals, embodiment is necessarily entangled to human consciousness as its the intersection of mechanism or action (both necessitating embodiment) occurring in the world that determines fitness. Perception is the operant process of consciousness and is the consciousness’ de facto goal adjudication process. Goal operationalization is fundamentally efficiency-based via one’s unique neuronal mapping as a byproduct of genetics, epigenetics, and experience. Perception involves information intake and information discrimination, equally underpinned by efficiencies of inclusive fitness via extreme thrownness. Perception isn’t a ‘frame rate,’ but Bayesian priors of efficiency based on one’s extreme thrownness. Consciousness and human consciousness is a modular (i.e., a scalar level of richness, which builds up like building blocks) and dimensionalized (i.e., cognitive abilities become possibilities as emergent phenomena at various modularities, like stratified factors in factor analysis). The meta dimensions of human consciousness seemingly include intelligence quotient, personality (five-factor model), richness of perception intake, and richness of perception discrimination, among other potentialities. Future consciousness research should utilize factor analysis to parse modularities and dimensions of human consciousness and animal models.

Keywords: consciousness, perception, prospection, embodiment

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Hossein Shabanali Fami, Omid Sharifi, Javad Ghasemi, Mahtab Pouratashi, Mona Sadat Moghadasian

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The main purpose of this study was to investigate perception of greenhouse vegetable growers regarding use of biological control practices during the growing season. The statistical population of the study included greenhouse vegetable growers in Jiroft county (N=1862). A sample of 137 vegetable growers was selected, using random sampling method. Data were collected via a questionnaire. The validity of the instrument was obtained by the faculty members of the Department of Agricultural Development and Management in the University of Tehran. Cronbach’s alpha was applied to estimate the reliability which showed a high reliability for the instrument. Data was analyzed using SPSS/Windows 13.5. The results revealed that greenhouse vegetable growers had moderate level of perception regarding biological control practices. Levels of vegetable growers’ perceptions regarding biological control practices were different on the basis of their academic qualifications as well as educational level and job. In addition, the results indicated that about 54.1% of variations in vegetable growers’ perceptions could be explained by variables such as awareness of biological control practices, knowledge on pests, annual production and age.

Keywords: greenhouse, biological control, biological agents, perception, vegetable grower

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Authors: Rylyne Mande Nchu, Robertson Tengeh, Chux Iwu

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Blended learning is a global phenomenon and is essential to many institutes of learning as an additional method of teaching that complements more traditional methods of learning. In this paper, the lack of practice of a blended learning approach to entrepreneurship education and how it impacts learners' perception of being entrepreneurial. E-learning is in its infancy within the secondary and high school sectors in South Africa. The conceptual framework of the study is based on theoretical aspects of systemic-constructivist learning implemented in an interactive online learning environment in an entrepreneurship education subject. The formative evaluation research was conducted implementing mixed methods of research (quantitative and qualitative) and it comprised a survey of high school learners and informant interviewing with entrepreneurs. Theoretical analysis of literature provides features necessary for creating interactive blended learning environments to be used in entrepreneurship education subject. Findings of the study show that learners do not always objectively evaluate their capacities. Special attention has to be paid to the development of learners’ computer literacy as well as to the activities that would bring online learning to practical training. Needs analysis shows that incorporating blended learning in entrepreneurship education may have a positive perception of entrepreneurship.

Keywords: blended learning, entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurship intention, entrepreneurial skills

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Authors: Ibrahim Alreshidi, Aseel Albrekeit, Ruaa Alharthi

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Background: As a result of the spread of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, many governments, including Saudi Arabia, have suspended operations in many agencies. Most dermatologists have restricted their practice, including cosmetic procedures, to ensure social distancing. On the 7th of May 2020, Saudi authorities reduced the restriction of COVID-19 virus preventative measures, allowing clinics to start accepting patients following the ministry of health protocols. Objectives: Evaluation of the public's perception and willingness to undergo cosmetic procedures during COVID-19 outbreaks in Saudi Arabia. Materials and methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study was carried out among the individuals who lack typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection in Saudi Arabia. A self-designed web-based questionnaire was developed; content face validity and a pilot study were done. The questionnaire was distributed electronically from the 8th of May until the 31st of May 2020. Results: A total of 656 individuals who lack typical symptoms of COVID-19 infection were included in this analysis. Only 10.5% of participants expressed their will to do cosmetic procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 90% of the participants believed that the COVID-19 pandemic was either somewhat serious (52.9%) or very serious (38.7%). The willingness to do cosmetic procedures during the COVID-19 pandemic remained unaltered when the price was discounted (p<0.001) and when infection control measures were ensured (p<0.001). Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic had a negative impact on the practice of cosmetic dermatology. Fear of transferring the infection to a beloved home member is the main reason to avoid these procedures. Generating well-structured safety guidelines to decrease the risk of this unusual virus transmission in dermatology practice and creating financial incentives may help increase the public willingness to do these cosmetic procedures during this pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, cosmetic procedures, questionnaire, dermatology

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Authors: Najeeb Ullah Khan

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Background: The receptor activator NF-κβ ligand (RANKL) and Osteoprotegerin (OPG) polymorphisms have been associated with the progression of breast cancer to bone metastasis. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of RANKL and OPG gene polymorphism with breast to bone metastasis in the Pashtun population, Pakistan. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from all the study subjects (106 breast cancer, 58 breast to bone metastasis, and 51 healthy controls). RANKL (rs9533156) and OPG (rs2073618, rs3102735) polymorphisms were genotyped using Tetra-ARMS PCR. Results: Our results indicated that the frequencies of OPG (rs3102735) risk allele and genotypes carrying risk allele in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.005; CC- p=0.0208; TC- p=0.0181), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0211; CC- p=0.0153; TC- p=0.0775), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.001) were found significantly associated with disease risk. However, there was no significant association observed for OPG (rs2073618) risk allele and risk allele containing genotypes in all study groups. Similarly, RANKL (rs9533156) risk alleles and corresponding genotypes in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.0084), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.5593), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0185; CC- p=0.6077; TC- p=0.1436) showed significant association except for the risk allele carrying genotypes in breast cancer to bone metastasis (TC, p=0.1436; CC, p=0.6077). Conclusion: OPG (rs3102735) and RANKL (rs9533156) showed significant association with breast to bone metastasis, while OPG (rs2073618) didn’t show a significant association with breast to bone metastasis in Pashtun population of Pakistan. However, more investigation will be required to disseminate the results while gene sequencing or whole-exome sequencing.

Keywords: breast cancer, bone metastasis, OPG, RANKL, polymorphism

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Authors: Martina Kanciruk, Jac J. W. Andrews, Tyrone Donnon

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The purpose of this study was to determine the significance of maternal smoking for the development of childhood overweight and/or obesity. Accordingly, a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from 1980 to 2012 using the following data bases: MEDLINE, PsychINFO, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Dissertation Abstracts International was conducted. The following terms were used in the search: pregnancy, overweight, obesity, smoking, parents, childhood, risk factors. Eighteen studies of maternal smoking during pregnancy and obesity conducted in Europe, Asia, North America, and South America met the inclusion criteria. A meta-analysis of these studies indicated that maternal smoking during pregnancy is a significant risk factor for overweight and obesity; mothers who smoke during pregnancy are at a greater risk for developing obesity or overweight; the quantity of cigarettes consumed by the mother during pregnancy influenced the odds of offspring overweight and/or obesity. In addition, the results from moderator analyses suggest that part of the heterogeneity discovered between the studies can be explained by the region of world that the study occurred in and the age of the child at the time of weight assessment.

Keywords: childhood obesity, overweight, smoking, parents, risk factors

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Authors: Wesam Darawsheh

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Background: there are scarcity of studies done to investigate the level of knowledge and the level of awareness and perception of Jordanians about occupational therapy (OT). Aim: to investigate the level of awareness of lay people, clients receiving services and healthcare professionals of OT, identify the common misconceptions about OT, and to explore ways whereby the knowledge and awareness about OT can be increased. Methodology: a cross sectional design was employed in this study where a survey was distributed in the Northern, Southern, Western, Eastern provinces and the Middle (capital city: Amman) province of Jordan. The survey consisted of eight section and 61 questions that aims to investigate the demographics of participants, self evaluation concerning knowledge and awareness about OT, sources of knowledge about OT, the perception of the aims, fields of practice, OT settings, misconceptions about OT, and suggestion to improve knowledge and awareness about OT. Results: A total of 829 participants were enrolled in this study: 459 lay people, 155 clients who are currently receiving OT services, 215 healthcare professionals. About 57% of the participants did not hear about OT, and 48% of those who reported to hear about OT did not have sufficient knowledge about it. There are several misconceptions associated with OT. The statistical analysis was executed using IBM SPSS software, Version 22.0 (SPSS, Chicago, USA). Conclusion: it is the responsibility of OTRs to increase the knowledge and awareness about OT in Jordan. This is required for the profession to proliferate and to be given its status.

Keywords: knowledge, occupational therapy misconceptions, healthcare professionals, lay people, Jordan

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Authors: Senay Yitmen

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This research investigated individual’s support and helping intentions towards Syrian refugees in Turkey. This is examined in relation to perceived threat and negative emotions, and also to the perceptions of whether one’s intimate social network (family and friends) considers Syrians a threat (descriptive network norm) and whether this network morally supports Syrian refugees (injunctive norms). A questionnaire study was conducted among Turkish participants (n= 565) and the results showed that perception of threat was associated with negative emotions which, in turn, were related to less support of Syrian refugees. Additionally, descriptive norms moderated the relationship between perceived threat and negative emotions towards Syrian refugees. Furthermore, injunctive norms moderated the relationship between negative emotions and support to Syrian refugees. Specifically, the findings indicate that perceived threat is associated with less support of Syrian refugees through negative emotions when descriptive norms are weak and injunctive norms are strong. Injunctive norms appear to trigger a dilemma over the decision to conform or not to conform: when one has negative emotions as a result of perceived threat, it becomes more difficult to conform to the moral obligation of injunctive norms which is associated with less support of Syrian refugees. Hence, these findings demonstrate that both descriptive and injunctive norms are important and play different roles in individual’s support of Syrian refugees.

Keywords: descriptive norms, emotions, injunctive norms, the perception of threat

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Authors: Henry Lau, Dilupa Nakandala, Li Zhao

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In today’s business, it is well-recognized that risk is an important factor that needs to be taken into consideration before a decision is made. Studies indicate that both the number of risks faced by organizations and their potential consequences are growing. Supply chain risk management has become one of the major concerns for practitioners and researchers. Supply chain leaders and scholars are now focusing on the importance of managing supply chain risk. In order to meet the challenge of managing and mitigating supply chain risk (SCR), we must first identify the different dimensions of SCR and assess its relevant probability and severity. SCR has been classified in many different ways, and there are no consistently accepted dimensions of SCRs and several different classifications are reported in the literature. Basically, supply chain risks can be classified into two dimensions namely disruption risk and operational risk. Disruption risks are those caused by events such as bankruptcy, natural disasters and terrorist attack. Operational risks are related to supply and demand coordination and uncertainty, such as uncertain demand and uncertain supply. Disruption risks are rare but severe and hard to manage, while operational risk can be reduced through effective SCM activities. Other SCRs include supply risk, process risk, demand risk and technology risk. In fact, the disorganized classification of SCR has created confusion for SCR scholars. Moreover, practitioners need to identify and assess SCR. As such, it is important to have an overarching framework tying all these SCR dimensions together for two reasons. First, it helps researchers use these terms for communication of ideas based on the same concept. Second, a shared understanding of the SCR dimensions will support the researchers to focus on the more important research objective: operationalization of SCR, which is very important for assessing SCR. In general, fresh food supply chain is subject to certain level of risks, such as supply risk (low quality, delivery failure, hot weather etc.) and demand risk (season food imbalance, new competitors). Effective strategies to mitigate fresh food supply chain risk are required to enhance operations. Before implementing effective mitigation strategies, we need to identify the risk sources and evaluate the risk level. However, assessing the supply chain risk is not an easy matter, and existing research mainly use qualitative method, such as risk assessment matrix. To address the relevant issues, this paper aims to analyze the risk factor of the fresh food supply chain using an approach comprising both fuzzy logic and hierarchical holographic modeling techniques. This novel approach is able to take advantage the benefits of both of these well-known techniques and at the same time offset their drawbacks in certain aspects. In order to develop this integrated approach, substantial research work is needed to effectively combine these two techniques in a seamless way, To validate the proposed integrated approach, a case study in a fresh food supply chain company was conducted to verify the feasibility of its functionality in a real environment.

Keywords: fresh food supply chain, fuzzy logic, hierarchical holographic modelling, operationalization, supply chain risk

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Authors: Imen Dhaou

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This study examines conditional Value at Risk by applying the GJR-EVT-Copula model, and finds the optimal portfolio for eight Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. Our methodology consists of modeling the data by a bivariate GJR-GARCH model in which we extract the filtered residuals and then apply the Peak over threshold model (POT) to fit the residual tails in order to model marginal distributions. After that, we use pair-copula to find the optimal portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, with Monte Carlo simulations, we estimate the Value at Risk (VaR) and the conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). The empirical results show the VaR and CVaR values for an equally weighted portfolio of Dow Jones Islamic-conventional pairs. In sum, we found that the optimal investment focuses on Islamic-conventional US Market index pairs because of high investment proportion; however, all other index pairs have low investment proportion. These results deliver some real repercussions for portfolio managers and policymakers concerning to optimal asset allocations, portfolio risk management and the diversification advantages of these markets.

Keywords: CVaR, Dow Jones Islamic index, GJR-GARCH-EVT-pair copula, portfolio optimization

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Authors: Weiming Hu, Xu Li, Xiaonan Li, Zhong Xu, Li Yuan, Xuan Dong

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Maneuver decision-making plays a critical role in high-performance intelligent driving. This paper proposes a risk assessment-based decision-making network (RADMN) to address the problem of driving strategy for the commercial vehicle. RADMN integrates two networks, aiming at identifying the risk degree of collision and rollover and providing decisions to ensure the effectiveness and reliability of driving strategy. In the risk assessment module, risk degrees of the backward collision, forward collision and rollover are quantified for hazard recognition. In the decision module, a deep reinforcement learning based on multi-objective optimization (DRL-MOO) algorithm is designed, which comprehensively considers the risk degree and motion states of each traffic participant. To evaluate the performance of the proposed framework, Prescan/Simulink joint simulation was conducted in highway scenarios. Experimental results validate the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed RADMN. The output driving strategy can guarantee the safety and provide key technical support for the realization of autonomous driving of commercial vehicles.

Keywords: decision-making strategy, risk assessment, multi-objective optimization, commercial vehicle

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Authors: Paschal Ohalehi

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Purpose - The purpose of this paper, which is part of a PhD thesis is to examine the role of risk based approach in minimising financial crime in the charity sector as well as offer recommendations to improving the quality of charity regulation whilst still retaining risk based approach as a regulatory framework and also making a case for a new regulatory model. Increase in financial crimes in the charity sector has put the role of regulation in minimising financial crime up for debates amongst researchers and practitioners. Although previous research has addressed the regulation of charities, research on the role of risk based approach to minimising financial crime in the charity sector is limited. Financial crime is a concern for all organisation including charities. Design/methodology/approach - This research adopts a social constructionist’s epistemological position. This research is carried out using semi structured in-depth interviews amongst randomly selected 24 charity trustees divided into three classes: 10 small charities, 10 medium charities and 4 large charities. The researcher also interviewed 4 stakeholders (NFA, Charity Commission and two different police forces in terms of size and area of coverage) in the charity sector. Findings - The results of this research show that reliance on risk based approach to financial crime in the sector is weak and fragmented with the research pointing to a clear evidence of disconnect between the regulator and the regulated leading to little or lack of regulation of trustees’ activities, limited monitoring of charities and lack of training and awareness on financial crime in the sector. Originality – This paper shows how regulation of charities in general and risk based approach in particular can be improved in order to meet the expectations of the stakeholders, the public, the regulator and the regulated.

Keywords: risk, risk based approach, financial crime, fraud, self-regulation

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Authors: Paul W. Murray, Marco Barajas

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Recent changes in supply chains, especially globalization and collaboration, have created new risks for enterprises of all sizes. A variety of complex frameworks, often based on enterprise risk management strategies have been presented under the heading of Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM). The literature on promotes the benefits of a robust SCRM strategy; however, implementing SCRM is difficult and resource demanding for Large Enterprises (LEs), and essentially out of reach for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). This research debunks the idea that SCRM is necessary for all enterprises and instead proposes a simple and effective Vendor Selection Template (VST). Empirical testing and a survey of supply chain practitioners provide a measure of validation to the VST. The resulting VSTis a valuable contribution because is easy to use, provides practical results, and is sufficiently flexible to be universally applied to SMEs.

Keywords: multiple regression analysis, supply chain management, risk assessment, vendor selection

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Authors: Herng-Sheng Lee, Chi-Yi Chen, Wan-Ting Huang, Li-Jen Chang, Solomon Chih-Cheng Chen, Hsin-Yi Yang

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A variety of gastrointestinal disorders, such as Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and coeliac disease, are recognized as risk factors for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. One recent study suggests that individuals with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) might also be at increased risk of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. Up to now, the association between IBS and the risk of fractures at different anatomic sites occurrences is not completely clear. We conducted a population-based cohort analysis to investigate the fracture risk of IBS in comparison with non-IBS group. We identified 29,505 adults aged ≥ 20 years with newly diagnosed IBS using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database in 2000-2012. A comparison group was constructed of patients without IBS who were matched according to gender and age. The occurrence of fracture was monitored until the end of 2013. We analyzed the risk of fracture events to occur in IBS by using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Patients with IBS had a higher incidence of osteoporotic fractures compared with non-IBS group (12.34 versus 9.45 per 1,000 person-years) and an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.27, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.20 – 1.35). Site specific analysis showed that the IBS group had a higher risk of fractures for spine, forearm, hip and hand than did the non-IBS group. With further stratification for gender and age, a higher aHR value for osteoporotic fractures in IBS group was seen across all age groups in males, but seen in elderly females. In addition, female, elderly, low income, hypertension, coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, and depressive disorders as independent osteoporotic fracture risk factors in IBS patients. The IBS is considered as a risk factor for osteoporotic fractures, particularly in female individuals and fracture sites located at the spine, forearm, hip and hand.

Keywords: irritable bowel syndrome, fracture, gender difference, longitudinal health insurance database, public health

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Authors: Daniel Alfonso Reséndiz-García, Luis Antonio García-Villanueva

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As a result of the high industrial activity, which arises from the search to satisfy the needs of products and services for society, several chemical accidents have occurred, causing serious damage to different sectors: human, economic, infrastructure and environmental losses. Historically, with the study of this chemical accidents, it has been determined that the causes are mainly due to human errors (inexperienced personnel, negligence, lack of maintenance and deficient risk analysis). The industries have the aim to increase production and reduce costs. However, it should be kept in mind that the costs involved in risk studies, implementation of barriers and safety systems is much cheaper than paying for the possible damages that could occur in the event of an accident, without forgetting that there are things that cannot be replaced, such as human lives.Therefore, it is of utmost importance to implement risk studies in all industries, which provide information for prevention and planning. The aim of this study is to compare risk methodologies by identifying the consequences of accidents related to the storage of flammable, dangerous goods for decision making and emergency response.The methodologies considered in this study are qualitative and quantitative risk analysis and consequence analysis. The latter, by means of modeling software, which provides radius of affectation and the possible scope and magnitude of damages.By using risk analysis, possible scenarios of occurrence of chemical accidents in the storage of flammable substances are identified. Once the possible risk scenarios have been identified, the characteristics of the substances, their storage and atmospheric conditions are entered into the software.The results provide information that allows the implementation of prevention, detection, control, and combat elements for emergency response, thus having the necessary tools to avoid the occurrence of accidents and, if they do occur, to significantly reduce the magnitude of the damage.This study highlights the importance of risk studies applying tools that best suited to each case study. It also proves the importance of knowing the risk exposure of industrial activities for a better prevention, planning and emergency response.

Keywords: chemical accidents, emergency response, flammable substances, risk analysis, modeling

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Authors: Sachin, Shantanu Arya, Gunjan Mehta, Md. Shamim Ansari

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The cross-modal influence of visual information on speech perception can be illustrated by the McGurk effect which is an illusion of hearing of syllable /ta/ when a listener listens one syllable, e.g.: /pa/ while watching a synchronized video recording of syllable, /ka/. The McGurk effect is an excellent tool to investigate multisensory integration in speech perception in both normal hearing and hearing impaired populations. As the visual cue is unaffected by noise, individuals with hearing impairment rely more than normal listeners on the visual cues.However, when non congruent visual and auditory cues are processed together, audiovisual interaction seems to occur differently in normal and persons with hearing impairment. Therefore, this study aims to observe the audiovisual interaction in speech perception in Cochlear Implant users compares the same with normal hearing children. Auditory stimuli was routed through calibrated Clinical audiometer in sound field condition, and visual stimuli were presented on laptop screen placed at a distance of 1m at 0 degree azimuth. Out of 4 presentations, if 3 responses were a fusion, then McGurk effect was considered to be present. The congruent audiovisual stimuli /pa/ /pa/ and /ka/ /ka/ were perceived correctly as ‘‘pa’’ and ‘‘ka,’’ respectively by both the groups. For the non- congruent stimuli /da/ /pa/, 23 children out of 35 with normal hearing and 9 children out of 35 with cochlear implant had a fusion of sounds i.e. McGurk effect was present. For the non-congruent stimulus /pa/ /ka/, 25 children out of 35 with normal hearing and 8 children out of 35 with cochlear implant had fusion of sounds.The children who used cochlear implants for less than three years did not exhibit fusion of sound i.e. McGurk effect was absent in this group of children. To conclude, the results demonstrate that consistent fusion of visual with auditory information for speech perception is shaped by experience with bimodal spoken language during early life. When auditory experience with speech is mediated by cochlear implant, the likelihood of acquiring bimodal fusion is increased and it greatly depends on the age of implantation. All the above results strongly support the need for screening children for hearing capabilities and providing cochlear implants and aural rehabilitation as early as possible.

Keywords: cochlear implant, congruent stimuli, mcgurk effect, non-congruent stimuli

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Authors: A. A. Adebayo, A. O. Ogunkeyede, A. O. Adeigbe

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Digital globalisation and yarn of Nigeria society to overcome the digital divide have resulted in contamination of soil by heavy metals (HMs) from e-waste activities at Alaba international market, Lagos, Nigeria. The aim of this research was to determine the concentration of various metals {Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Copper (Cu), and Lead (Pb)} and identify their ecological and health risks for the people within the study area. A total of 60 soil samples were collected at Alaba market study area. Two types of samples were collected from each sampling points: topsoil (0-15 cm), subsoil (15 -30 cm). The metal concentration results showed that the soils were heavily contaminated by HMs at topsoil and subsoil. The geoaccummulation and ecological risk indices revealed high pollution level from all studied site. The health risk assessment results suggested that there is high possibility of carcinogenic risk to humans because the carcinogenic risk via corresponding exposure pathways exceeded the safety limit of 10-6 (the acceptable level of carcinogenic risk for human). Furthermore, inhalation of soil particles is the main exposure pathway for Cr to enter the human body for all ages. Children in the vicinity are exposed more to ingestion of Pb since they tend to eat earth (pica) and repeatedly suck their fingers. This study provides basic information to create awareness for a need to introduce pollution control measures and the need to protect the ecosystem and human health within the study area at Alaba international market.

Keywords: contaminated soil, ecological risk, hazard index, risk factor, exposure pathways, heavy metals

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Authors: Heping Wang

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Social interaction has increased as a result of rapid economic expansion. Particularly in China, gift exchanges have developed into a social tradition of showing gratitude. Most gifts, on the other hand, are lavishly presented or overpacked to impress or demonstrate respect to the gift receiver. Overpackaging wastes enormous resources and produces a lot of municipal solid waste (MSW), which can seriously harm the environment if it is not handled properly. The purpose of this study is to investigate consumers' perceptions, preferences, and perspectives regarding gifts overpackaging in order to identify potential solutions for reducing gifts overpackaging to achieve sustainable packaging objectives. The research was conducted by means of an online survey focusing on residents in Shanghai, China, and the data was quantitatively analyzed by SPSS software. According to research, consumers' perception of excessive packaging is approximately 3.5 points out of 5, and this perception has a significant impact on consumers' behavioral intentions; The preferences of givers and receivers for gift packaging are significantly different in three aspects; Customers prefer incentives for eco-packaging when it comes to measures to reduce gift overpackaging. Finally, the study also identifies suitable gift packaging options for customers.

Keywords: gift packaging, consumer perception, consumer preference, consumer perspective, overpackaging, solutions

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Authors: Onur Arugaslan, Ajay Samant, Devrim Yaman

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Financial advisors and investors seek new assets which could potentially increase portfolio returns and decrease portfolio risk. Cryptocurrencies represent a relatively new asset class which could serve in both these roles. There has been very little research done in the area of the risk/return tradeoff in a portfolio consisting of fixed income assets, stocks, and cryptocurrency. The objective of this study is a rigorous examination of this issue. The data used in the study are the monthly returns on 4-week US Treasury Bills, S&P Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Stock Index. The methodology used in the study is the application Modern Portfolio Theory to evaluate the risk-adjusted returns of portfolios with varying combinations of these assets, using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Indexes, as well as the Sortino and Modigliani measures. The results of the study would include the ranking of various investment portfolios based on their risk/return characteristics. The conclusions of the study would include objective empirical inference for investors who are interested in including cryptocurrency in their asset portfolios but are unsure of the risk/return implications.

Keywords: financial economics, portfolio diversification, fixed income securities, cryptocurrency, stock indexes

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Authors: Giulia I. Pintea

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The Roma people are a nomadic ethnic group native to India, and they are one of the most prevalent minorities in Europe. In the past, Roma were enslaved and they were imprisoned in concentration camps during the Holocaust; today, Roma are subject to hate crimes and are denied access to healthcare, education, and proper housing. The aim of this project is to analyze how the public perception of the Roma people may be influenced by antiziganist and pro-Roma institutions in Europe. In order to carry out this project, we used social network analysis to build two large social networks: The antiziganist network, which is composed of institutions that oppress and racialize Roma, and the pro-Roma network, which is composed of institutions that advocate for and protect Roma rights. Measures of centrality, density, and modularity were obtained to determine which of the two social networks is exerting the greatest influence on the public’s perception of Roma in European societies. Furthermore, data on hate crimes on Roma were gathered from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). We analyzed the trends in hate crimes on Roma for several European countries for 2009-2015 in order to see whether or not there have been changes in the public’s perception of Roma, thus helping us evaluate which of the two social networks has been more influential. Overall, the results suggest that there is a greater and faster exchange of information in the pro-Roma network. However, when taking the hate crimes into account, the impact of the pro-Roma institutions is ambiguous, due to differing patterns among European countries, suggesting that the impact of the pro-Roma network is inconsistent. Despite antiziganist institutions having a slower flow of information, the hate crime patterns also suggest that the antiziganist network has a higher impact on certain countries, which may be due to institutions outside the political sphere boosting the spread of antiziganist ideas and information to the European public.

Keywords: applied mathematics, oppression, Roma people, social network analysis

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Authors: Amanda R. R. Oliveira, Caio F. F. C. Cunha, Juan C. L. Junior, Amorim H. P. Junior

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Children deaths are traumatic events that most often can be prevented. The technology of prevention and intervention in cases of infant deaths is available at low cost and with solid evidence and favorable results, however, with low access cover. Weight is one of the main factors related to death in the neonatal period, so the newborns of low birth weight are a population at high risk of death in the neonatal period, especially early neonatal period. This paper describes the development of a model based in neural network analysis to predict the mortality risk rating in the early neonatal period for newborns of low birth weight to identify the individuals of this population with increased risk of death. The neural network applied was trained with a set of newborns data obtained from Brazilian health system. The resulting network presented great success rate in identifying newborns with high chances of death, which demonstrates the potential for using this tool in an integrated manner to the health system, in order to direct specific actions for improving prognosis of newborns.

Keywords: low birth weight, neonatal death risk, neural network, newborn

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Authors: Jennifer Reese, Josh Biber, Howard Weeks, Rachel Hess

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Aim: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Screen (EPDS) is a mental health screening for pregnant women that has been widely used over the last 30 years. This screen is typically given in clinic on paper to patients throughout pregnancy and postpartum. The screen helps identify patients who may be at risk for pregnancy related depression or postpartum depression. In early 2016, University of Utah Health implemented an electronic version of the EPDS as well as the PROMIS Depression v1.0 instrument for all pregnant and postpartum patients. We asked patients both instruments to understand coverage of patients identified as at risk for each instrument. Methods: The EPDS is currently administered as part of our PRO template for pregnant and postpartum women. We also administer the PROMIS Depression as part of a standard PRO assessment to all patients. Patients are asked to complete an assessment no more often than every eight weeks. PRO assessments are either completed at home or in clinic with a tablet computer. Patients with a PROMIS score of ≥ 65 or a EPDS score of ≥ 10 were identified as at risk for depression Results: From April 2016 to April 2017, 1,330 unique patients were screened at University of Utah Health in OBGYN clinics with both the EPDS and PROMIS depression instrument on the same day. There were 28 (2.1%) patients were identified as at risk for depression using the PROMIS depression screen, while 262 (19.7%) patients were identified as at risk for postpartum depression using the EPDS screen. Overall, 27 (2%) patients were identified as at risk on both instruments. Conclusion: The EPDS identified a higher percent (19.7%) of patients at risk for depression when compared to the PROMIS depression (2.1%). Ninety-six percent of patients who screened positive on the PROMIS depression screen also screened positive on the EPDS screen. Mental health is an important component to a patient’s overall wellbeing. We want to ensure all patients, particularly pregnant or post-partum women, receive screening and treatment when necessary. A combination of screenings may be necessary to provide the overall best care for patients and to identify the highest percentage of patients at risk.

Keywords: patient reported outcomes, mental health, maternal, depression

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin

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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.

Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring

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Authors: Daniel Mokatsanyane, Johnny Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper is a concise introduction of the risk management on the water derivatives market. Water, a new commodity in the market, is one of the most important commodity on earth. As important to life and planet as crops, metals, and energy, none of them matters without water. This paper presents a brief overview of water as a tradable commodity via a new first of its kind futures contract on the Nasdaq Veles California Water Index (NQH2O) derivative instrument, TheGeneralised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be the used to measure the water price volatility of the instrument and its performance since it’s been traded. describe the main products and illustrate their usage in risk management and also discuss key challenges with modeling and valuation of water as a traded commodity and finally discuss how water derivatives may be taken as an alternative asset investment class.

Keywords: water derivatives, commodity market, nasdaq veles california water Index (NQH2O, water price, risk management

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Authors: Izabela L. Ciesielska-Wrόbel

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This paper presents finite element models of the fingertip skin which have been created to simulate the contact of textile objects with the skin to gain a better understanding of the perception of textiles through the skin, so-called Hand of Textiles (HoT). Many objective and subjective techniques have been developed to analyze HoT, however none of them provide exact overall information concerning the sensation of textiles through the skin. As the human skin is a complex heterogeneous hyperelastic body composed of many particles, some simplifications had to be made at the stage of building the models. The same concerns models of woven structures, however their utilitarian value was maintained. The models reflect only friction between skin and woven textiles, deformation of the skin and fabrics when “touching” textiles and heat transfer from the surface of the skin into direction of textiles.

Keywords: fingertip skin models, finite element models, modelling of textiles, sensation of textiles through the skin

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: Muhammad Ridho Fakhrin, Leni Sagita Riantini, Yusuf Latief

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Based on the 2015-2019 RPJMN data, the realization of toll road infrastructure development in Indonesia experienced a delay of 49% or 904 km of the total plan. One of the major causes of delays in development is caused by institutional factors. The case study taken in this research is the construction of the Trans Sumatra Toll Road (JTTS). The purpose of this research is to identify the institutional forms, functions, roles, duties, and responsibilities of each stakeholder and the risks that occur in the Trans Sumatra Toll Road Infrastructure Development. Risk analysis is implemented on functions, roles, duties, responsibilities of each existing stakeholder and is carried out at the Funding Stage, Technical Planning Stage, and Construction Implementation Stage in JTTS. This research is conducted by collecting data through a questionnaire survey, then processed using statistical methods, such as homogeneity, data adequacy, validity, and reliability test, continued with risk assessment based on a risk matrix. The results of this study are the evaluation and development of institutional functions in risk-based JTTS development can improve time performance and minimize delays in the construction process.

Keywords: institutional, risk management, time performance, toll road

Procedia PDF Downloads 135