Search results for: elderly drivers

Authors: Ashneel Ajay Singh, Naoki Suzuki, Kazumi Sakuramoto, Swastika Roshni, Paras Nath, Alok Kalla

Abstract:

Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) is one of the commercially important species of tuna in the North Pacific region. Despite the long history of albacore fisheries in the Pacific, its ecological characteristics are not sufficiently understood. The effects of changing climate on numerous commercially and ecologically important fish species including albacore tuna have been documented over the past decades. The objective of this study was to explore and elucidate the relationship of environmental variables with the stock parameters of albacore tuna. The relationship of the North Pacific albacore tuna recruitment (R), spawning stock biomass (SSB) and recruits per spawning biomass (RPS) from 1970 to 2012 with the environmental factors of sea surface temperature (SST), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific warm pool index (PWI) was construed. SST and PDO were used as independent variables with SSB to construct stock reproduction models for R and RPS as they showed most significant relationship with the dependent variables. ENSO and PWI were excluded due to collinearity effects with SST and PDO. Model selections were based on R2 values, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and significant parameter estimates at p<0.05. Models with single independent variables of SST, PDO, ENSO and PWI were also constructed to illuminate their individual effect on albacore R and RPS. From the results it can be said that SST and PDO resulted in the most significant models for reproducing North Pacific albacore tuna R and RPS time series. SST has the highest impact on albacore R and RPS when comparing models with single environmental variables. It is important for fishery managers and decision makers to incorporate the findings into their albacore tuna management plans for the North Pacific Oceanic region.

Keywords: Albacore tuna, El Niño southern oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, sea surface temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 207

Authors: Waleed Ahmed, Huang Xiaohua, Wilayat Ali

Abstract:

The wheelchair users are generally exposed to physical and psychological health problems, e.g., pressure sores and pain in the hip joint, associated with seating posture or being inactive in a wheelchair for a long time. Reclining Wheelchair with back, thigh, and leg adjustment helps in daily life activities and health preservation. The seat elevating function of an electric wheelchair allows the user (lower limb amputation) to reach different heights. An electric wheelchair is expected to ease the lives of the elderly and disable people by giving them mobility support and decreasing the percentage of accidents caused by users’ narrow sight or joystick operation errors. Thus, this paper proposed the design, analysis and obstacle avoidance control of an electric wheelchair with sit-sleep-seat elevation functions. A 3D model of a wheelchair is designed in SolidWorks that was later used for multi-body dynamic (MBD) analysis and to verify driving control system. The control system uses the fuzzy algorithm to avoid the obstacle by getting information in the form of distance from the ultrasonic sensor and user-specified direction from the joystick’s operation. The proposed fuzzy driving control system focuses on the direction and velocity of the wheelchair. The wheelchair model has been examined and proven in MSC Adams (Automated Dynamic Analysis of Mechanical Systems). The designed fuzzy control algorithm is implemented on Gazebo robotic 3D simulator using Robotic Operating System (ROS) middleware. The proposed wheelchair design enhanced mobility and quality of life by improving the user’s functional capabilities. Simulation results verify the non-accidental behavior of the electric wheelchair.

Keywords: fuzzy logic control, joystick, multi body dynamics, obstacle avoidance, scissor mechanism, sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Alokananda Nath

Abstract:

Land is an important issue anywhere in the world as it is one of the fundamental elements in human settlements. Since the urban areas are considered to be the drivers of economy for any country across the world and the phenomenon of ‘urbanization’ happening everywhere, there is always a greater pressure on urban land and its management. Many states in India have realized the importance of land as a valuable resource and have implemented certain framework for managing and developing land. But in West Bengal no such statutory framework has been formulated till now and a very out dated model of land acquisition for public purpose is practiced. Due to the lop-sided character of urban growth in the entire eastern region of India, the city of Kolkata continues to bear the burden of excessive growth of population and consequent urbanization of the adjoining areas at a rapid pace. This research tries to look into these conflicts with respect to the present pattern of development in the context of Kolkata and suggest a system for land management in order to implement the planning processes. For this purpose, five case study areas were taken up within the Kolkata Metropolitan Area and subsequent analysis of their present land management and development techniques was done. The findings reveal that there is a lack of political will as well as administrative inefficiency on part of both the development authority and the local bodies. Mostly the local bodies lack the financial resources and technical expertise to work out any kind of land management framework or work out any kind of model in order to manage the development that is happening. All these place undue strain on city infrastructure systems and reduce the potential of cities to contribute as engines of economic growth. The focus of reforms, therefore, ought to be on streamlining the urban planning process, judicious and optimal land use, efficient plan implementation mechanisms, improvement of titling and registration processes.

Keywords: urbanization, land management framework, land development, policy reforms, land-use planning processes

Procedia PDF Downloads 246

Authors: Moh’d A. AL-Shboul

Abstract:

Recently, and due to Arab spring and terrorism around the globe, pushing and driving most governments potentially to harmonize their border measures particularly the regional and an international transit trade within and among Customs Unions. The main purpose of this study is to investigate and provide an insight for monitoring and controlling the trade supply chain within and among different countries by using technological advancement (i.e. an electronic tracking system, etc.); furthermore, facilitate the local and intra-regional trade among countries through reviewing the recent trends and practical implementation of an electronic transit traffic and cargo that related to customs measures by introducing and supporting some case studies of several international and landlocked transit trade countries. The research methodology employed in this study was described as qualitative by conducting few interviews with managers, transit truck drivers, and traders and reviewing the related literature to collect qualitative data from secondary sources such as statistical reports, previous studies, etc. The results in this study show that Jordan and other countries around the globe that used an electronic tracking system for monitoring transit trade has led to a significant reduction in cost, effort and time in physical movement of goods internally and crossing through other countries. Therefore, there is no need to escort transit trucks by customs staff; hence, the rate of escort transit trucks is reduced by more than ninety percent, except the bulky and high duty goods. Electronic transit traffic has been increased; the average transit time journey has been reduced by more than seventy percent and has led to decrease in rates of smuggling up to fifty percent. The researcher recommends considering Jordan as regional and international office for tracking electronically and monitoring the transit trade for many considerations.

Keywords: electronic tracking system, facilitation system, regional and international corridor, supply chain security, transit trade

Procedia PDF Downloads 473

Authors: Kgopa Bontle, Tholen Sodi

Abstract:

Climate change poses a major threat to the well-being of both people and the environment, with subsistence farmers most affected as they rely on local supply systems that are sensitive to climate variation. This study documented psychological resilience factors associated with climate change adaptations by subsistence farmers in Maruleng Municipality, Limpopo Province. A qualitative study was conducted to examine the notions of climate change by subsistence farmers, the psychological resilience factors, the strategies to cope with climate change, adaptation methods, and the development of subsistence farmers’ psychological resilience factors model. Data were collected through direct interactions with participants using a grounded theory research design. An open-ended interview was used to collect data with a sample of 15 participants selected through theoretical sampling in Maruleng Municipality. The participants were both Sepedi and Xitsonga speaking from 2 villages, mostly unemployed, pensioners and dependent on social grants. The study included both males and females who were predominately the elderly. The research findings indicate that farmers have limited knowledge of what climate change is and what causes it. Furthermore, the research reflects that although their responses were non-scientific but sensible enough to know what they were dealing with. They mentioned extreme weather, which includes hot days and less rainfall and changes in seasons, as some of the impacts brought by climate change. The results also indicated that participants have learned to adapt through several adaptation strategies, including mulching, changes in irrigation time slots and being innovative. The resilience factors that emerged from the study were a passion for farming, hope, enthusiasm, courage, acceptance/tolerance, livelihood and belief systems. Looking at the socio-economic factors of the current study setting argumentation leads to the conclusion that it is important that government should assist the subsistence farmers as it was observed from the participants that they felt neglected by the government and policymakers as they are small scale farmers and are not included like commercial farmers.

Keywords: climate change, psychological resilience factors, human adaptation, subsistence farmers

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Styliani Kotrotsiou, Evagelia Kotrotsiou, Fani Mokia, Theodosis Paralikas, Konstantinos Tsaras

Abstract:

Objective: The objective of this study was the investigation of the mental health of patients undergoing chronic or transient hemodialysis at Artificial Kidney Unit, as well as its relationship to the demographic characteristic of patients. Material and Method: The study took place in Larisa during the month of December in 2016 and the sample was composed of 60 patients undergoing in chronic or transient hemodialysis at Artificial Kidney Unit of the University General Hospital of Larisa. For the investigation of the physical and mental health of patients who participated in the study, the tool measurement << General Health Questionnaire- 28 >> (GHQ-28) was used. The questionnaires were administered with the interview method during the hemodialysis. This survey is designed for the existence or not of a mental disorder. It examines four factors (physical symptoms, anxiety, social dysfunction and depression). Results: The hemodialysis patients gave the following scores: -to the physical symptoms, women showed a higher average value than men (1,16 ± 1,26 against 0,49 ± 0,93), -at the anxiety scale, it seems that women are superior to men (1,68 ± 1,20 against 0,90 ± 1,22), -at the social dysfunction scale, the elderly patients ( > 65 years old) were presented a with higher average (2,59), and -at the depression scale, patients with a higher average value were those who lived in non-urban areas. The appearance of mental disorder, in relation to patient characteristics, did not show significant statistical correlation. The sex, the age and the place of residence affect more the assessment of mental health, while education did not seem to have any significant effect on the other. Conclusions: The hemodialysis process can significantly affect the patient’s Quality of Life and it can bring adverse changes in lifestyle, affecting the physical, social and psychological state of the individual. For that reason, hemodialysis should be aimed not only at extending life but in upgrading the Quality of Life.

Keywords: hemodialysis, chronic kidney disease, depression, social dysfunction, physical condition

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Tansa Nisan Gunerhan

Abstract:

Dementia comes in different forms, including Alzheimer's disease. The most common dementia diagnosis among elderly individuals is Alzheimer's disease. On average, for patients with Alzheimer’s, life expectancy is around 4-8 years after the diagnosis; however, expectancy can go as high as twenty years or more, depending on the shrinkage of the brain. Normally, along with aging, the brain shrinks at some level but doesn’t lose a vast amount of neurons. However, Alzheimer's patients' neurons are destroyed rapidly; hence problems with loss of memory, communication, and other metabolic activities begin. The toxic changes in the brain affect the stability of the neurons. Beta-amyloid and tau are two proteins that are believed to play a role in the development of Alzheimer's disease through their toxic changes. Beta-amyloid is a protein that is produced in the brain and is normally broken down and removed from the body. However, in people with Alzheimer's disease, the production of beta-amyloid increases, and it begins to accumulate in the brain. These plaques are thought to disrupt communication between nerve cells and may contribute to the death of brain cells. Tau is a protein that helps to stabilize microtubules, which are essential for the transportation of nutrients and other substances within brain cells. In people with Alzheimer's disease, tau becomes abnormal and begins to accumulate inside brain cells, forming neurofibrillary tangles. These tangles disrupt the normal functioning of brain cells and may contribute to their death, forming amyloid plaques which are deposits of a protein called amyloid-beta that build up between nerve cells in the brain. The accumulation of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain is thought to contribute to the shrinkage of brain tissue. As the brain shrinks, the size of the brain may decrease, leading to a reduction in brain volume. Brain atrophy in Alzheimer's disease is often accompanied by changes in the structure and function of brain cells and the connections between them, leading to a decline in brain function. These toxic changes that accumulate can cause symptoms such as memory loss, difficulty with thinking and problem-solving, and changes in behavior and personality.

Keywords: Alzheimer, amyloid-beta, brain atrophy, neuron, shrinkage

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Nithra Kitreerawutiwong, Sunsanee Mekrungrongwong, Artitaya Wongwonsin, Chakkraphan Phetphoom, Buaploy Phromjang

Abstract:

Background: Thailand has implemented a district health system based on the concept of primary health care. Since 2014, Family Care Team (FCT) was launched to improve the quality of care through a multidisciplinary team include not only the health sector but also social sector work together. FCT classified into 3 levels: district, sub-district, and community. This system now consists of 66,353 teams, including 3,890 teams at district level, 12,237 teams at the sub-district level, and 50,326 teams at the community level. There is a report regarding assessment the situation and perception on FCT, however, relatively few examined the operationality of this policy. This study aimed to explore the perception of district manager on the process of the implementation of FCT policy and the factors associating to implement FCT in the district health system. Methods/Results: Forty in-depth interviews were performed: 5 of primary care manager at the provincial medical health office, 5 of community hospital director, 5 of district administrative health office, 10 of sub-district health promoting hospital, and 10 of local organization. Semi-structure interview guidelines were used in the discussions. The data was analyzed by thematic analysis. This policy was formulated based on the demographic change and epidemiology transition to serve a long term care for elderly. Facilitator factors are social capital in district health systems such as family health leader and multidisciplinary team. Barrier factors are communication to the frontline provider and local organization. The output of this policy in relation to the structure of FCT is well-defined. Unanticipated effects include training of FCT in community level. Conclusion: Early feedback from healthcare manager is valuable information for the improvement of FCT to function optimally. Moreover, in the long term, health outcome need to be evaluated.

Keywords: family care team, district health system, primary care, qualitative study

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Geeta, Richa, M. L. Sharma

Abstract:

Himachal Pradesh, a hilly State of India located in the Western Himalayas, with varied altitudinal gradients and climatic conditions, is a repository of plant diversity and the traditional knowledge associated with plants. The State is inhabited by various tribal communities who usually depend upon local plants for curing various ailments. Utilization of plant resources in their day-to-day life has been an age old practice of the people inhabiting this State. The present study pertains to the tribal district Kinnaur of Himachal Pradesh, located between 77°45’ and 79°00’35” east longitudes and between 31°05’50” and 32°05’15” north altitudes. Being a remote area with only very basic medical facilities, local people mostly use traditional herbal medicines for primary healthcare needs. Traditional healers called “Amji” are usually very secretive in revealing their medicinal knowledge to novice and pass on their knowledge to next generation orally. As a result, no written records of healing herbs are available. The aim of present study was to collect and consolidate the ethno-medicinal knowledge of local people of the district about the use of plants for treating gastrointestinal ailments. The ethnobotanical information was collected from the local practitioners, herbal healers and elderly people having rich knowledge about the medicinal herbs through semi-structured questionnaire and key informant discussions. A total 46 plant species belonging to 40 genera and 24 families have been identified which are used as cure for gastrointestinal ailments. Among the parts used for gastointestinal ailments, aerial parts (14%) were followed by the whole plant (13%), root (8%), leaves (6%), flower (5%), fruit and seed (3%) and tuber (1%). These plant species could be prioritized for conservation and subject to further studies related to phytochemical screening for their authenticity. Most of the medicinal plants of the region are collected from the wild and are often harvested for trade. Sustainable harvesting and domestication of the highly traded species from the study area is needed.

Keywords: Amji, gastrointestinal, Kinnaur, medicinal plants, traditional knowledge

Procedia PDF Downloads 370

Authors: Harini Aiyer, Kalyani Premkumar

Abstract:

Health professionals are the key players who can help achieve the goals of population health equity. Social accountability (SA) of health professionals emphasizes their role in addressing issues of equity in the population they serve. Therefore, health professional education must focus on instilling SA in health professionals. There is limited literature offering a longitudinal perspective of how students sustain the practice of SA in later life. This project aims to identify the drivers of social accountability among physicians. This study employed an exploratory mixed methods design (QUAL-> Quant) to explore alumni perceptions and experiences. The qualitative data, collected via 20 in-depth, semi-structured interviews, provided an understanding of the perceptions of the alumni regarding the influence of their undergraduate learning environment on their SA. This was followed by a quantitative portion -a questionnaire designed from the themes identified from the qualitative data. Emerging themes from the study highlighted community-centered education and a focus on social and preventative medicine in both curricular and non-curricular facilitators of SA among physicians. Curricular components included opportunities to engage with the community, such as roadside clinics, community-orientation programs, and postings at a secondary hospital. Other facilitators that emerged were the faculty leading by example, a subsidized fee structure, and a system that prepared students for practice in rural and remote areas. The study offers a fresh perspective and dimension on how SA is addressed by medical schools. The findings may be adapted by medical schools to understand how their own SA initiatives have been sustained among physicians over the long run.

Keywords: community-based work, global health, health education, medical education, providing health in remote areas, social accountability

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Oluwayemisi Femi-Pius, Kazeem Arogundade, Eberechukwu Eke, Jimmy Eko

Abstract:

Introduction: Globally, community involvement in improving their own health has been widely adopted as a strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa principally to ensure equitable access to essential health care as well as improve the uptake of maternal and newborn health services especially in poor-resource settings. Method: The Saving Mother Giving Life (SMGL) Initiative implemented by Pathfinder International with funding support from USAID conducted a Health Facility Assessment (HFA) and found out that maternal mortality ratio in Cross River State was 812 per 100,000 live birth and perinatal mortality was 160 per 1000 live birth. To reduce maternal and perinatal mortality, Pathfinder International mobilized, selected and trained community members as community volunteers, traditional birth attendants, and emergency transport service volunteer drivers mainly to address the delay in decision making and reaching the health facility among pregnant women. Results: The results showed that maternal mortality ratio in Cross River State decrease by 25% from 812 per 100,000 live birth at baseline to 206 per 100,000 live birth at June 2018 and perinatal mortality reduced by 35% from 160 per 100,000 at baseline to 58 per 1000 live birth at June 2018. Data also show that ANC visit increased from 7,451 to 11,344; institutional delivery increased from 8,931 at baseline to 10,784 in June 2018. There was also a remarkable uptake of post-partum family planning from 0 at baseline to 233 in June 2018. Conclusion: There is clear evidence that community involvement yields positive maternal outcomes and is pivotal for sustaining most health interventions.

Keywords: maternal mortality, Nigeria, pathfinder international, perinatal mortality, saving mother giving life

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Dona Pamoda W. Jayatunga, Veer Bala Gupta, Eugene Hone, Ralph N. Martins

Abstract:

Being a neurodegenerative disorder, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) affects a majority of the elderly demented worldwide. The key risk factors for AD are age, metabolic syndrome, allele status of APOE gene, head injuries and lifestyle. The progressive nature of AD is characterized by symptoms of multiple cognitive deficits exacerbated over time, leading to death within a decade from clinical diagnosis. However, it is revealed that AD originates via a prodromal phase that spans from one to few decades before symptoms first manifest. The key pathological hallmarks of AD brains are deposition of amyloid beta (Aβ) plaques and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT). However, the yet unknown etiology of the disease fails to distinguish mitochondrial dysfunction between a cause or an outcome. The absence of early diagnosis tools and definite therapies for AD have permitted recruits of nutraceutical-based approaches aimed at reducing the risk of AD by modulating lifestyle or be used as preventive tools during AD prodromal state before widespread neurodegeneration begins. The objective of the present study was to investigate beneficial effects of luteolin, a plant-based flavone compound, against AD. The neuroprotective effects of luteolin on amyloid beta (Aβ) (1-42)-induced neurotoxicity was measured using cultured human neuroblastoma BE(2)-M17 cells. After exposure to 20μM Aβ (1-42) for 48 h, the neuroblastoma cells exhibited marked apoptotic death. Co-treatment of 20μM Aβ (1-42) with luteolin (0.5-5μM) significantly protected the cells against Aβ (1-42)-induced toxicity, as assessed by the MTS [3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-5-(3-carboxymethoxyphenyl)-2(4sulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium, inner salt; MTS] reduction assay and the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) cell death assay. The results suggest that luteolin prevents Aβ (1-42)-induced apoptotic neuronal death. However, further studies are underway to determine its protective mechanisms in AD including the activity against tau hyperphosphorylation and mitochondrial dysfunction.

Keywords: Aβ (1-42)-induced toxicity, Alzheimer’s disease, luteolin, neuroblastoma cells

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Joseph F. Cabrera, Rachael Dela Cruz

Abstract:

This study specifically examines patterns that define ethnoracially diverse neighborhoods. Ethnoracial diversity is important as it facilitates cross-racial interactions within neighborhoods which have been theorized to be associated with such outcomes as intergroup harmony, the reduction of racial and ethnic prejudice and discrimination, and increases in racial tolerance. Los Angeles (LA) is an ideal location to study ethnoracial spatial patterns as it is one of the most ethnoracially diverse cities in the world. A large influx of Latinos, as well as Asians, have contributed to LA’s urban landscape becoming increasingly diverse over several decades. Our dataset contains all census tracts in Los Angeles County in 2016 and incorporates Census and ACS demographic and spatial data. We quantify ethnoracial diversity using a derivative of Simpson’s Diversity Index and utilize this measure to test previous literature that suggests Latinos are one of the key drivers of changing ethnoracial spatial patterns in Los Angeles. Preliminary results suggest that there has been an overall increase in ethnoracial diversity in Los Angeles neighborhoods over the past sixteen years. Patterns associated with this trend include decreases in predominantly white and black neighborhoods, increases in predominantly Latino and Asian neighborhoods, and a general decrease in the white populations of the most diverse neighborhoods. A similar pattern is seen in neighborhoods with large Latino increases- a decrease in white population, but with an increase in Asian and black populations. We also found support for previous research that suggests increases in Latino and Asian populations act as a buffer, allowing for black population increases without a sizeable decrease in the white population. Future research is needed to understand the underlying causes involved in many of the patterns and trends highlighted in this study.

Keywords: race, race and interaction, racial harmony, social interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 110

Authors: Ankush M. Dewle, Suditi Bhattacharya, Prachi R. Abhang, Savita Datar, Ajay J. Jog, Rupesh K. Srivastava, Geetanjali Tomar

Abstract:

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate the quality of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) obtained from ageing gingival tissues, in order to suggest their potential role in autologous stem cell therapy for old individuals. Methods: MSCs were isolated from gingival tissues of young (18-45 years) and old (above 45 years) donors by enzymatic digestion. MSCs were analysed for cfu-f, surface marker expression by flow-cytometry and multilineage differentiation potential. The angiogenic potential was compared in a chick embryo yolk sac membrane model. The aging and differentiation markers including SA-β-galactosidase and p21 respectively were analysed by staining and flow-cytometry analysis. Additionally, osteogenic markers such as glucocorticoid receptor (GR), vitamin D receptor (VDR) were measured by flow-cytometry and RT-qPCR was performed for quantification of osteogenic gene expression. Alizarin Red S and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity were also quantitated. Results: Gingival MSCs (GMSCs) from both the age groups were similar in their morphology and displayed cfu-f. They had similar expression of MSC surface markers and p21, comparable rate of proliferation and differentiated to all the four lineages. GMSCs from young donors had a higher adipogenic differentiation potential as compared to the old GMSCs. Moreover, these cells did not display a significant difference in ALP activity probably due to comparable expression of GR, VDR, and osteogenic genes. Conclusions: Ageing of GMSCs occurs at a much slower rate than stem cells from other sources. Thus we suggest GMSCs as an excellent candidate for autologous stem cell therapy in degenerative diseases of elderly individuals. Clinical Significance: GMSCs could help overcome the setbacks in clinical implementation of autologous stem cell therapy for regenerative medicine in all age group of patient.

Keywords: bone regeneration, cell therapy, senescence, stem cell

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Salimah Hasnah, Namratha Radhakrishnan

Abstract:

Communities play a vital role in mobilizing people and resources for the benefit of all. Since time immemorial, communities have been spear heading different activities ranging from disaster management, palliative care, local economic development and many more with laudable success. Urban agriculture is one such activity where communities can prove to make a real difference. Farming activities in cities across different developed countries have proved to have favorable outcomes in the form of increased food security, neighborhood revitalization, health benefits and local economic growth. However, urban agriculture in the developing nations have never been prioritized as an important planning tool to cater to the basic needs of the public. Urban agricultural practices are being carried out in a fragmented fashion without a formal backing. The urban dwellers rely heavily on their far-off rural counterparts for daily food requirements. With the onset of the pandemic and the recurring lockdowns, the significance of geographic proximity and its impact on the availability of food to the public are gradually being realized around the globe. This warrants a need for localized food systems by shortening the distance between production and consumption of food. The significance of communities in realizing these urban farming benefits is explored in this paper. A case-study approach is adopted to understand how different communities have overcome barriers to urban farming in cities. The applicability of these practices is validated against the state of Kerala in India wherein different community centered approaches have been successful in the past. The existing barriers are assessed and way forward to achieve a self-sufficient localized food systems is formulated with the key lessons from the case studies. These recommendations will be helpful to successfully establish and sustain farming activities in urban areas by leveraging the power of communities.

Keywords: community-centric, COVID-19, drivers and barriers, local food system, urban agriculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Firoozeh Ghazanfari, Kourosh Amraei, Parisa Poorabadi

Abstract:

Mild cognitive impairment is one of the neurocognitive disorders that go beyond age-related decline in cognitive functions, but in fact, it is not so severe which affects daily activities. This study aimed to investigate and compare the effectiveness of treatment with cranial electrical stimulation, brain training and their double combination on the language and verbal fluency of the elderly with mild cognitive impairment. This is a single-subject method with comparative intervention designs. Four patients with a definitive diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment by a psychiatrist were selected via purposive and convenience sampling method. Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination Scale (2017) was used to assess language and verbal fluency. Two groups were formed with different order of cranial electrical stimulation treatment, brain training by pencil and paper method and their double combination, and two patients were randomly replaced in each group. The arrangement of the first group included cranial electrical stimulation, brain training, double combination and the second group included double combination, cranial electrical stimulation and brain training, respectively. Treatment plan included: A1, B, A2, C, A3, D, A4, where electrical stimulation treatment was given in ten 30-minutes sessions (5 mA and frequency of 0.5-500 Hz) and brain training in ten 30-minutes sessions. Each baseline lasted four weeks. Patients in first group who first received cranial electrical stimulation treatment showed a higher percentage of improvement in the language and verbal fluency subscale of Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination in comparison to patients of the second group. Based on the results, it seems that cranial electrical stimulation with its effect on neurotransmitters and brain blood flow, especially in the brain stem, may prepare the brain at the neurochemical and molecular level for a better effectiveness of brain training at the behavioral level, and the selective treatment of electrical stimulation solitude in the first place may be more effective than combining it with paper-pencil brain training.

Keywords: cranial electrical stimulation, treatment, brain training, verbal fluency, cognitive impairment

Procedia PDF Downloads 65

Authors: Vito Telesca, Giuseppina A. Giorgio

Abstract:

The earth system is subject to a wide range of human activities that have changed the ecosystem more rapidly and extensively in the last five decades. These global changes have a large impact on human health. The relationship between extreme weather events and mortality are widely documented in different studies. In particular, a number of studies have investigated the relationship between climatological variations and the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The researchers have become interested in the evaluation of the effect of environmental variations on the occurrence of different diseases (such as infarction, ischemic heart disease, asthma, respiratory problems, etc.) and mortality. Among changes in weather conditions, the heat waves have been used for investigating the association between weather conditions and cardiovascular events and cerebrovascular, using thermal indices, which combine air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The effects of heat waves on human health are mainly found in the urban areas and they are aggravated by the presence of atmospheric pollution. The consequences of these changes for human health are of growing concern. In particular, meteorological conditions are one of the environmental aspects because cardiovascular diseases are more common among the elderly population, and such people are more sensitive to weather changes. In addition, heat waves, or extreme heat events, are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, and duration with climate change. In this context, are very important public health and climate change connections increasingly being recognized by the medical research, because these might help in informing the public at large. Policy experts claim that a growing awareness of the relationships of public health and climate change could be a key in breaking through political logjams impeding action on mitigation and adaptation. The aims of this study are to investigate about the importance of interactions between weather variables and your effects on human health, focusing on Italy. Also highlighting the need to define strategies and practical actions of monitoring, adaptation and mitigation of the phenomenon.

Keywords: climate change, illness, Italy, temperature, weather

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Armand Okende, Benjamin Beaumont

Abstract:

Introduction: Deforestation is a change in the structure and composition of flora and fauna, which leads to a loss of biodiversity, production of goods and services and an increase in fires. It concerns vast territories in tropical zones particularly; this is the case of the territory of Bolobo in the current province of Maï- Ndombe in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Indeed, through this study between 2001 and 2018, we believe that it was important to show and analyze quantitatively the important forests changes and analyze quantitatively. It’s the overall objective of this study because, in this area, we are witnessing significant deforestation. Methodology: Mapping and quantification are the methodological approaches that we have put forward to assess the deforestation or forest changes through satellite images or raster layers. These satellites data from Global Forest Watch are integrated into the GIS software (GRASS GIS and Quantum GIS) to represent the loss of forest cover that has occurred and the various changes recorded (e.g., forest gain) in the territory of Bolobo. Results: The results obtained show, in terms of quantifying deforestation for the periods 2001-2006, 2007-2012 and 2013-2018, the loss of forest area in hectares each year. The different change maps produced during different study periods mentioned above show that the loss of forest areas is gradually increasing. Conclusion: With this study, knowledge of forest management and protection is a challenge to ensure good management of forest resources. To do this, it is wise to carry out more studies that would optimize the monitoring of forests to guarantee the ecological and economic functions they provide in the Congo Basin, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In addition, the cartographic approach, coupled with the geographic information system and remote sensing proposed by Global Forest Watch using raster layers, provides interesting information to explain the loss of forest areas.

Keywords: deforestation, loss year, forest change, remote sensing, drivers of deforestation

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Janusz Bobulski, Mariusz Kubanek

Abstract:

The main goal of the research is to develop a multimedia container structure containing three types of images: RGB, lidar and infrared, properly calibrated to each other. An additional goal is to develop program libraries for creating and saving this type of file and for restoring it. It will also be necessary to develop a method of data synchronization from lidar and RGB cameras as well as infrared. This type of file could be used in autonomous vehicles, which would certainly facilitate data processing by the intelligent autonomous vehicle management system. Autonomous cars are increasingly breaking into our consciousness. No one seems to have any doubts that self-driving cars are the future of motoring. Manufacturers promise that moving the first of them to showrooms is the prospect of the next few years. Many experts believe that creating a network of communicating autonomous cars will be able to completely eliminate accidents. However, to make this possible, it is necessary to develop effective methods of detection of objects around the moving vehicle. In bad weather conditions, this task is difficult on the basis of the RGB(red, green, blue) image. Therefore, in such situations, you should be supported by information from other sources, such as lidar or infrared cameras. The problem is the different data formats that individual types of devices return. In addition to these differences, there is a problem with the synchronization of these data and the formatting of this data. The goal of the project is to develop a file structure that could be containing a different type of data. This type of file is calling a multimedia container. A multimedia container is a container that contains many data streams, which allows you to store complete multimedia material in one file. Among the data streams located in such a container should be indicated streams of images, films, sounds, subtitles, as well as additional information, i.e., metadata. This type of file could be used in autonomous vehicles, which would certainly facilitate data processing by the intelligent autonomous vehicle management system. As shown by preliminary studies, the use of combining RGB and InfraRed images with Lidar data allows for easier data analysis. Thanks to this application, it will be possible to display the distance to the object in a color photo. Such information can be very useful for drivers and for systems in autonomous cars.

Keywords: an autonomous car, image processing, lidar, obstacle detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Wei Yao

Abstract:

A steerable and flexible drill is needed in orthopaedic surgery. For example, osteoarthritis is a common condition affecting millions of people for which joint replacement is an effective treatment which improves the quality and duration of life in elderly sufferers. Conventional surgery is not very accurate. Computer navigation and robotics can help increase the accuracy. For example, In Total Hip Arthroplasty (THA), robotic surgery is currently practiced mainly on acetabular side helping cup positioning and orientation. However, femoral stem positioning mostly uses hand-rasping method rather than robots for accurate positioning. The other case for using a flexible drill in surgery is Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) Reconstruction. The majority of ACL Reconstruction failures are primarily caused by technical mistakes and surgical errors resulting from drilling the anatomical bone tunnels required to accommodate the ligament graft. The proposed new steerable drill system will perform orthopedic surgery through curved tunneling leading to better accuracy and patient outcomes. It may reduce intra-operative fractures, dislocations, early failure and leg length discrepancy by making possible a new level of precision. This technology is based on a robotically assisted, steerable, hand-held flexible drill, with a drill-tip tracking device and a multi-modality navigation system. The critical differentiator is that this robotically assisted surgical technology now allows the surgeon to prepare 'patient specific' and more anatomically correct 'curved' bone tunnels during orthopedic surgery rather than drilling straight holes as occurs currently with existing surgical tools. The flexible and steerable drill and its navigation system for femoral milling in total hip arthroplasty had been tested on sawbones to evaluate the accuracy of the positioning and orientation of femoral stem relative to the pre-operative plan. The data show the accuracy of the navigation system is better than traditional hand-rasping method.

Keywords: navigation, robotic orthopedic surgery, steerable drill, tracking

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Suhathai Tosangwarn, Philip Clissett, Holly Blake

Abstract:

Background: High prevalence of depression has been reported among older adults living in care homes in Thailand, associated with physical impairment, low social support, low self-esteem and particularly stigma associated with living in a care home. However, little is understood about how such stigma is experienced among Thai care home residents. This study examines residents’ perceptions of stigma and their strategies for coping with stigma. Method/Design: Case study research was used to gain an in-depth view about the stigma of residents’ perspectives and experiences from two care homes in the northeast of Thailand by conducting an in-depth interview and non-participant observation. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 30 older residents (aged >60 years), purposively sampled from both care homes. Non-participant observation was conducted in various public spaces of the care homes, including the dining room, corridors, and activities areas for approximately one to two hours per day at different times; morning and afternoon including weekdays and weekend in both care homes for one month. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Results: The study identified three major themes related to the causes of stigma, the reactions towards stigma and the mitigating factors. Negative beliefs about care homes, negative attitudes, and stereotypes toward the elderly and perceptions of unequal power relations between staff and residents were the main factors precipitating stigma. Consequently, residents exhibited negative emotions and behaviours, including depressive symptoms, while living in care homes. Residents reported the use of particular coping strategies, including accessing support from the public and staff and engaging in care home activities which these helped them to cope with their perception of stigma. Conclusion: Improved understanding of the underlying factors behind perceived stigma in care home residents may help to prevent depression and reduce perceptions of stigma associated with living in a care home, by informing strategy, supportive intervention and guidelines for appropriate care for older Thai residents.

Keywords: care home, depression, older adult, stigma, Thailand

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Louis Hickman

Abstract:

Stakeholder theory is a powerful conception of the firm based on the notion that a primary focus on shareholders is inadequate and, in fact, detrimental to the long-term health of the firm. As such it represents a departure from prevalent business school teachings with their focus on accounting and cost controls. Herein, it is argued that stakeholder theory can be better conceptualized as a critical theory, or one which represents a fundamental change in business behavior and can transform the behavior of businesses if accepted. By arguing that financial interests underdetermine the success of the firm, stakeholder theory further democratizes business by endorsing an increased awareness of the importance of non-shareholder stakeholders. Stakeholder theory requires new, non-financial, measures of success that provide a new consciousness for management and businesses when conceiving their actions and place in society. Thereby, stakeholder theory can show individuals through self-reflection that the capitalist impulses to generate wealth cannot act as primary drivers of business behavior, but rather, that we would choose to support interests outside ourselves if we made the decision in free discussion. This is due to the false consciousness embedded in our capitalism that the firm’s finances are the foremost concern of modern organizations at the expense of other goals. A focus on non-shareholder stakeholders in addition to shareholders generates greater benefits for society by improving the state of customers, employees, suppliers, the community, and shareholders alike. These positive effects generate further positive gains in well-being for stakeholders and translate into increased health for the future firm. Additionally, shareholders are the only stakeholder group that does not provide long-term firm value since there are not always communities with qualified employees, suppliers capable of providing the quality of product needed, or persons with purchasing power for all conceivable products. Therefore, the firm’s long-term health is benefited most greatly by improving the greatest possible parts of the society in which it inhabits, rather than solely the shareholder.

Keywords: capitalism, critical theory, self-reflection, stakeholder theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Seyi Olalekan Olawuyi, Abbyssiania Mushunje

Abstract:

The potential benefits of agricultural production to improve the welfare condition of smallholder farmers in developing countries is no more a news because it has been widely documented. Yet majority of these farming households suffer from shortfall in production output to meet both the consumption needs and market demand which adversely affects output market participation and by extension welfare condition. Therefore, this study investigated the impacts of output market participation on households’ welfare of cassava-based farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 324 sample size used for this study. The findings from the data obtained and analyzed through composite score and crosstab analysis revealed that there is varying degree of output market participation among the farmers which also translate to the observed welfare profile differentials in the study area. The probit model analysis with respect to the selection equation identified gender of household head, household size, access to remittance, off-farm income and ownership of farmland as significant drivers of output market participation in the study area. Furthermore, the treatment effect model of the welfare equation and propensity score matching (PSM) technique were used as robust checks; and the findings attest to the fact that, complimentarily with other significant variables highlighted in this study, output market participation indeed has a significant impact on farming households’ welfare. As policy implication inferences, the study recommends female active inclusiveness and empowerment in farming activities, birth control strategies, secondary income smoothing activities and discouragement of land fragmentation habits, to boost productivity and output market participation, which by extension can significantly improve farming households’ welfare.

Keywords: Cassava market participation, households' welfare, propensity score matching, treatment effect model

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Mahera Abdulrahman, Satish Chandrasekhar Nair

Abstract:

Growing demand for human health research in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has prompted the need to develop a robust research ethics oversight, particularly given the large unskilled-worker immigrant population and the elderly citizens utilizing health services. Examination of the structure, function, practices and outcomes of the human research ethics committees (HREC) was conducted using two survey instruments, reliable and validated. Results indicate that in the absence of a national ethics regulatory body, the individual emirate’s governed 21 HRECs covering health facilities and academic institutions in the UAE. Among the HRECs, 86% followed International Council for Harmonization-Good Clinical Practice guidelines, 57% have been in operation for more than five years, 81% reviewed proposals within eight weeks, 48% reviewed for clinical and scientific merit apart from ethics, and 43% handled more than 50 research proposals per year. However, researcher recognition, funding transparency, adverse event reporting systems were widespread in less than one-third of all HRECs. Surprisingly, intellectual property right was not included as a research output. Research was incorporated into the vision and mission statements of many (62%) organizations and, mechanisms such as research publications, collaborations, and recognitions were employed as key performance indicators to measure research output. In spite, resources to generate research output such as dedicated budget (19%), support staff (19%) and continuous training and mentoring program for medical residents and HREC members were somehow lacking. HREC structure and operations in the UAE are similar to other regions of the world, resources allocation for efficient, quality monitoring, continuous training, and the creation of a clinical research network are needed to strengthen the clinical research enterprise to scale up for the future. It is anticipated that the results of this study will benefit investigators, regulators, pharmaceutical sponsors and the policy makers in the region.

Keywords: institutional review board, ethics committee, human research ethics, United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

Abstract:

Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

Procedia PDF Downloads 445

Authors: Ferdi Sönmez, Nihal Yorulmaz

Abstract:

Decision making on the true planning of the public transportation systems to serve potential users is a must for metropolitan areas. To take attraction of travelers to projected modes of transport, adequately fair overall travel times should be provided. In this fashion, other benefits such as lower traffic congestion, road safety and lower noise and atmospheric pollution may be earned. The congestion which comes with increasing demand of public transportation is becoming a part of our lives and making residents’ life difficult. Hence, regulations should be done to reduce this congestion. To provide a constructive and balanced regulation in public transportation systems, right stations should be located in right places. In this study, it is aimed to design and implement a Decision Support System (DSS) Application to determine the optimal bus stop places for public transport in Istanbul which is one of the biggest and oldest cities in the world. Required information is gathered from IETT (Istanbul Electricity, Tram and Tunnel) Enterprises which manages all public transportation services in Istanbul Metropolitan Area. By using the most real-like values, cost assignments are made. The cost is calculated with the help of equations produced by bi-level optimization model. For this study, 300 buses, 300 drivers, 10 lines and 110 stops are used. The user cost of each station and the operator cost taken place in lines are calculated. Some components like cost, security and noise pollution are considered as significant factors affecting the solution of set covering problem which is mentioned for identifying and locating the minimum number of possible bus stops. Preliminary research and model development for this study refers to previously published article of the corresponding author. Model results are represented with the intent of decision support to the specialists on locating stops effectively.

Keywords: operator cost, bi-level optimization model, user cost, urban transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: C. B. Masera, M. Imprialou, L. Budd, C. Morton

Abstract:

Even though signalised intersections are necessary for urban road traffic management, they can act as bottlenecks and disrupt traffic operations. Interrupted traffic flow causes congestion, delays, stop-and-go conditions (i.e. excessive acceleration/deceleration) and longer journey times. Vehicle and infrastructure connectivity offers the potential to provide improved new services with additional functions of assisting drivers. This paper focuses on one of the applications of vehicle-to-infrastructure communication namely Green Light Optimal Speed Advisory (GLOSA). To assess the effectiveness of GLOSA in the urban road network, an integrated microscopic traffic simulation framework is built into VISSIM software. Vehicle movements and vehicle-infrastructure communications are simulated through the interface of External Driver Model. A control algorithm is developed for recommending an optimal speed that is continuously updated in every time step for all vehicles approaching a signal-controlled point. This algorithm allows vehicles to pass a traffic signal without stopping or to minimise stopping times at a red phase. This study is performed with all connected vehicles at 100% penetration rate. Conventional vehicles are also simulated in the same network as a reference. A straight road segment composed of two opposite directions with two traffic lights per lane is studied. The simulation is implemented under 150 vehicles per hour and 200 per hour traffic volume conditions to identify how different traffic densities influence the benefits of GLOSA. The results indicate that traffic flow is improved by the application of GLOSA. According to this study, vehicles passed through the traffic lights more smoothly, and waiting times were reduced by up to 28 seconds. Average delays decreased for the entire network by 86.46% and 83.84% under traffic densities of 150 vehicles per hour per lane and 200 vehicles per hour per lane, respectively.

Keywords: connected vehicles, GLOSA, intelligent transport systems, vehicle-to-infrastructure communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Balbasatu Ibrahim

Abstract:

In the 19th century, Hausaland an Islamic revolution known as the Sokoto Jihad took place that led to the establishment of the Sokoto Caliphate in 1804 under the leadership of the famous Sheik Uthman Bn Fodiye. Before the Jihad movement in Hausaland (now Northern Nigeria), women were left in ignorance and were used and dumped like old kitchen utensils. The sheik and his followers did their best to actualising women’s right to education by using their female family members as role models who were highly educated and renowned scholars. After the Jihad with the establishment of an Islamic state, the women scholars initiated different strategies to teach the generality of the women. The most efficient strategy was the ‘Yantaru Movement founded by Nana Asma’u the daughter of Sheikh Uthman Bn Fodiye in collaboration with her sisters around 1840. The ‘Yantaru movement is a women’s educational movement aimed at enlightening women in rural and urban areas. The move helped in massively mobilizing women for education. In addition to town pupils, women from villages and throughout the nooks and crannies of metropolitan Sokoto participated in the movement in the search for knowledge. Thus, the birth of the ‘Yantaru system of women’s education. The ‘Yantaru operates the three-tier system at village, town and the metropolitan capital of Sokoto. ‘Yantaru functions include imparting knowledge to elderly women and young girls. Step down enlightenment program on returning home. The most effective medium of communication in the ‘Yantaru movement was through poetry where scholars composed educational poems which were memorized by the ‘Yantaru, who on return recite it to fellow women at home. Through this system, many women were educated. This paper translated and examines one of such educative poems written by the second leader of the ‘Yantaru Movement Maryam Bn Uthman Bn Fodiye in 1855.

Keywords: English, Hausa language, public enlightenment, Maryam Bint Uthman Ibn Foduye

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Molla Tadesse Lakew

Abstract:

This study was intended to identify the factors influencing the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing in Fogera district. The use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing and factors influencing mobile phone use were specific objectives of the study. Three kebeles from the Fogera district were selected purposively based on their vegetable production potential. A simple random sampling technique (lottery method) was used to select 153 vegetable producer farmers. Interview schedule and key informants interviews were used to collect primary data. For analyzing the data, descriptive statistics like frequency and percentage, two independent t-tests, and chi-square were used. Furthermore, econometric analysis (binary logistic model) was used to assess the factors influencing mobile phone use for vegetable market information. Contingency coefficient and variance inflation factor were used to check multicollinearity problems between the independent variables. Of 153 respondents, 82 (61.72%) were mobile phone users, while 71 (38.28 %) were mobile phone nonusers. Moreover, the main use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing includes communicating at a distance to save time and minimizing transport costs, getting vegetable marketing price information, identifying markets and buyers to sell the vegetable, deciding when to sell the vegetable, negotiating with buyers for better vegetable prices and for searching of the fast market to avoid from losing of product through perishing. The model result indicated that the level of education, size of land, income, access to credit, and age were significant variables affecting the use of mobile phones in vegetable marketing. It could be recommended to encourage adult education or give training for farmers on how to operate mobile phones and create awareness for the elderly rural farmers as they are able to use the mobile phone for their vegetable marketing. Moreover, farmers should be aware that mobile phones are very important for those who own very small land to get maximum returns from their production. Lastly, providing access to credit and improving and diversifying income sources for the farmers to have mobile phones were recommended to improve the livelihood of farmers.

Keywords: mobile phone, farmers, vegetable marketing, Fogera District

Procedia PDF Downloads 43

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

Abstract:

The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 134