Search results for: large hadron electron collider
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 9266

Search results for: large hadron electron collider

626 Implication of Woman’s Status on Child Health in India

Authors: Rakesh Mishra

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India’s Demography has always amazed the world because of its unprecedented outcomes in the presence of multifaceted socioeconomic and geographical characteristics. Being the first one to implement family panning in 1952, it occupies 2nd largest population of the world, with some of its state like Uttar Pradesh contributing 5th largest population to the world population surpassing Brazil. Being the one with higher in number it is more prone to the demographic disparity persisting into its territories brought upon by the inequalities in availability, accessibility and attainability of socioeconomic and various other resources. Fifth goal of Millennium Development Goal emphasis to improve maternal and child health across the world as Children’s development is very important for the overall development of society and the best way to develop national human resources is to take care of children. The target is to reduce the infant deaths by three quarters between 1990 and 2015. Child health status depends on the care and delivery by trained personnel, particularly through institutional facilities which is further associated with the status of the mother. However, delivery in institutional facilities and delivery by skilled personnel are rising slowly in India. The main objective of the present study is to measure the child health status on based on the educational and occupational background of the women in India. Study indicates that women education plays a very crucial role in deciding the health of the new born care and access to family planning, but the women autonomy indicates to have mixed results in different states of India. It is observed that rural women are 1.61 times more likely to exclusive breastfed their children compared to urban women. With respect to Hindu category, women belonging to other religious community were 21 percent less likely to exclusive breastfed their child. Taking scheduled caste as reference category, the odds of exclusive breastfeeding is found to be decreasing in comparison to other castes, and it is found to be significant among general category. Women of high education status have higher odds of using family planning methods in most of the southern states of India. By and large, girls and boys are about equally undernourished. Under nutrition is generally lower for first births than for subsequent births and consistently increases with increasing birth order for all measures of nutritional status. It is to be noted that at age 12-23 months, when many children are being weaned from breast milk, 30 percent of children are severely stunted and around 21 percent are severely underweight. So, this paper presents the evidence on the patterns of prevailing child health status in India and its states with reference to the mother socioeconomics and biological characteristics and examines trends in these, and discusses plausible explanations.

Keywords: immunization, exclusive breastfeeding, under five mortality, binary logistic regression, ordinal regression and life table

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625 Genome-Wide Homozygosity Analysis of the Longevous Phenotype in the Amish Population

Authors: Sandra Smieszek, Jonathan Haines

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Introduction: Numerous research efforts have focused on searching for ‘longevity genes’. However, attempting to decipher the genetic component of the longevous phenotype have resulted in limited success and the mechanisms governing longevity remain to be explained. We conducted a genome-wide homozygosity analysis (GWHA) of the founder population of the Amish community in central Ohio. While genome-wide association studies using unrelated individuals have revealed many interesting longevity associated variants, these variants are typically of small effect and cannot explain the observed patterns of heritability for this complex trait. The Amish provide a large cohort of extended kinships allowing for in depth analysis via family-based approach excellent population due to its. Heritability of longevity increases with age with significant genetic contribution being seen in individuals living beyond 60 years of age. In our present analysis we show that the heritability of longevity is estimated to be increasing with age particularly on the paternal side. Methods: The present analysis integrated both phenotypic and genotypic data and led to the discovery of a series of variants, distinct for stratified populations across ages and distinct for paternal and maternal cohorts. Specifically 5437 subjects were analyzed and a subset of 893 successfully genotyped individuals was used to assess CHIP heritability. We have conducted the homozygosity analysis to examine if homozygosity is associated with increased risk of living beyond 90. We analyzed AMISH cohort genotyped for 614,957 SNPs. Results: We delineated 10 significant regions of homozygosity (ROH) specific for the age group of interest (>90). Of particular interest was ROH on chromosome 13, P < 0.0001. The lead SNPs rs7318486 and rs9645914 point to COL4A2 and our lead SNP. COL25A1 encodes one of the six subunits of type IV collagen, the C-terminal portion of the protein, known as canstatin, is an inhibitor of angiogenesis and tumor growth. COL4A2 mutations have been reported with a broader spectrum of cerebrovascular, renal, ophthalmological, cardiac, and muscular abnormalities. The second region of interest points to IRS2. Furthermore we built a classifier using the obtained SNPs from the significant ROH region with 0.945 AUC giving ability to discriminate between those living beyond to 90 years of age and beyond. Conclusion: In conclusion our results suggest that a history of longevity does indeed contribute to increasing the odds of individual longevity. Preliminary results are consistent with conjecture that heritability of longevity is substantial when we start looking at oldest fifth and smaller percentiles of survival specifically in males. We will validate all the candidate variants in independent cohorts of centenarians, to test whether they are robustly associated with human longevity. The identified regions of interest via ROH analysis could be of profound importance for the understanding of genetic underpinnings of longevity.

Keywords: regions of homozygosity, longevity, SNP, Amish

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624 Integration of a Protective Film to Enhance the Longevity and Performance of Miniaturized Ion Sensors

Authors: Antonio Ruiz Gonzalez, Kwang-Leong Choy

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The measurement of electrolytes has a high value in the clinical routine. Ions are present in all body fluids with variable concentrations and are involved in multiple pathologies such as heart failures and chronic kidney disease. In the case of dissolved potassium, although a high concentration in the blood (hyperkalemia) is relatively uncommon in the general population, it is one of the most frequent acute electrolyte abnormalities. In recent years, the integration of thin films technologies in this field has allowed the development of highly sensitive biosensors with ultra-low limits of detection for the assessment of metals in liquid samples. However, despite the current efforts in the miniaturization of sensitive devices and their integration into portable systems, only a limited number of successful examples used commercially can be found. This fact can be attributed to a high cost involved in their production and the sustained degradation of the electrodes over time, which causes a signal drift in the measurements. Thus, there is an unmet necessity for the development of low-cost and robust sensors for the real-time monitoring of analyte concentrations in patients to allow the early detection and diagnosis of diseases. This paper reports a thin film ion-selective sensor for the evaluation of potassium ions in aqueous samples. As an alternative for this fabrication method, aerosol assisted chemical vapor deposition (AACVD), was applied due to cost-effectivity and fine control over the film deposition. Such a technique does not require vacuum and is suitable for the coating of large surface areas and structures with complex geometries. This approach allowed the fabrication of highly homogeneous surfaces with well-defined microstructures onto 50 nm thin gold layers. The degradative processes of the ubiquitously employed poly (vinyl chloride) membranes in contact with an electrolyte solution were studied, including the polymer leaching process, mechanical desorption of nanoparticles and chemical degradation over time. Rational design of a protective coating based on an organosilicon material in combination with cellulose to improve the long-term stability of the sensors was then carried out, showing an improvement in the performance after 5 weeks. The antifouling properties of such coating were assessed using a cutting-edge quartz microbalance sensor, allowing the quantification of the adsorbed proteins in the nanogram range. A correlation between the microstructural properties of the films with the surface energy and biomolecules adhesion was then found and used to optimize the protective film.

Keywords: hyperkalemia, drift, AACVD, organosilicon

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623 Production of Bacillus Lipopeptides for Biocontrol of Postharvest Crops

Authors: Vivek Rangarajan, Kim G. Klarke

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With overpopulation threatening the world’s ability to feed itself, food production and protection has become a major issue, especially in developing countries. Almost one-third of the food produced for human consumption, around 1.3 billion tonnes, is either wasted or lost annually. Postharvest decay in particular constitutes a major cause of crop loss with about 20% of fruits and vegetables produced lost during postharvest storage, mainly due to fungal disease. Some of the major phytopathogenic fungi affecting postharvest fruit crops in South Africa include Aspergillus, Botrytis, Penicillium, Alternaria and Sclerotinia spp. To date control of fungal phytopathogens has primarily been dependent on synthetic chemical fungicides, but these chemicals pose a significant threat to the environment, mainly due to their xenobiotic properties and tendency to generate resistance in the phytopathogens. Here, an environmentally benign alternative approach to control postharvest fungal phytopathogens in perishable fruit crops has been presented, namely the application of a bio-fungicide in the form of lipopeptide molecules. Lipopeptides are biosurfactants produced by Bacillus spp. which have been established as green, nontoxic and biodegradable molecules with antimicrobial properties. However, since the Bacillus are capable of producing a large number of lipopeptide homologues with differing efficacies against distinct target organisms, the lipopeptide production conditions and strategy are critical to produce the maximum lipopeptide concentration with homologue ratios to specification for optimum bio-fungicide efficacy. Process conditions, and their impact on Bacillus lipopeptide production, were evaluated in fully instrumented laboratory scale bioreactors under well-regulated controlled and defined environments. Factors such as the oxygen availability and trace element and nitrate concentrations had profound influences on lipopeptide yield, productivity and selectivity. Lipopeptide yield and homologue selectivity were enhanced in cultures where the oxygen in the sparge gas was increased from 21 to 30 mole%. The addition of trace elements, particularly Fe2+, increased the total concentration of lipopeptides and a nitrate concentration equivalent to 8 g/L ammonium nitrate resulted in optimum lipopeptide yield and homologue selectivity. Efficacy studies of the culture supernatant containing the crude lipopeptide mixture were conducted using phytopathogens isolated from fruit in the field, identified using genetic sequencing. The supernatant exhibited antifungal activity against all the test-isolates, namely Lewia, Botrytis, Penicillium, Alternaria and Sclerotinia spp., even in this crude form. Thus the lipopeptide product efficacy has been confirmed to control the main diseases, even in the basic crude form. Future studies will be directed towards purification of the lipopeptide product and enhancement of efficacy.

Keywords: antifungal efficacy, biocontrol, lipopeptide production, perishable crops

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622 Examination of Porcine Gastric Biomechanics in the Antrum Region

Authors: Sif J. Friis, Mette Poulsen, Torben Strom Hansen, Peter Herskind, Jens V. Nygaard

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Gastric biomechanics governs a large range of scientific and engineering fields, from gastric health issues to interaction mechanisms between external devices and the tissue. Determination of mechanical properties of the stomach is, thus, crucial, both for understanding gastric pathologies as well as for the development of medical concepts and device designs. Although the field of gastric biomechanics is emerging, advances within medical devices interacting with the gastric tissue could greatly benefit from an increased understanding of tissue anisotropy and heterogeneity. Thus, in this study, uniaxial tensile tests of gastric tissue were executed in order to study biomechanical properties within the same individual as well as across individuals. With biomechanical tests in the strain domain, tissue from the antrum region of six porcine stomachs was tested using eight samples from each stomach (n = 48). The samples were cut so that they followed dominant fiber orientations. Accordingly, from each stomach, four samples were longitudinally oriented, and four samples were circumferentially oriented. A step-wise stress relaxation test with five incremental steps up to 25 % strain with 200 s rest periods for each step was performed, followed by a 25 % strain ramp test with three different strain rates. Theoretical analysis of the data provided stress-strain/time curves as well as 20 material parameters (e.g., stiffness coefficients, dissipative energy densities, and relaxation time coefficients) used for statistical comparisons between samples from the same stomach as well as in between stomachs. Results showed that, for the 20 material parameters, heterogeneity across individuals, when extracting samples from the same area, was in the same order of variation as the samples within the same stomach. For samples from the same stomach, the mean deviation percentage for all 20 parameters was 21 % and 18 % for longitudinal and circumferential orientations, compared to 25 % and 19 %, respectively, for samples across individuals. This observation was also supported by a nonparametric one-way ANOVA analysis, where results showed that the 20 material parameters from each of the six stomachs came from the same distribution with a level of statistical significance of P > 0.05. Direction-dependency was also examined, and it was found that the maximum stress for longitudinal samples was significantly higher than for circumferential samples. However, there were no significant differences in the 20 material parameters, with the exception of the equilibrium stiffness coefficient (P = 0.0039) and two other stiffness coefficients found from the relaxation tests (P = 0.0065, 0.0374). Nor did the stomach tissue show any significant differences between the three strain-rates used in the ramp test. Heterogeneity within the same region has not been examined earlier, yet, the importance of the sampling area has been demonstrated in this study. All material parameters found are essential to understand the passive mechanics of the stomach and may be used for mathematical and computational modeling. Additionally, an extension of the protocol used may be relevant for compiling a comparative study between the human stomach and the pig stomach.

Keywords: antrum region, gastric biomechanics, loading-unloading, stress relaxation, uniaxial tensile testing

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621 Lifespan Assessment of the Fish Crossing System of Itaipu Power Plant (Brazil/Paraguay) Based on the Reaching of Its Sedimentological Equilibrium Computed by 3D Modeling and Churchill Trapping Efficiency

Authors: Anderson Braga Mendes, Wallington Felipe de Almeida, Cicero Medeiros da Silva

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This study aimed to assess the lifespan of the fish transposition system of the Itaipu Power Plant (Brazil/Paraguay) by using 3D hydrodynamic modeling and Churchill trapping effiency in order to identify the sedimentological equilibrium configuration in the main pond of the Piracema Channel, which is part of a 10 km hydraulic circuit that enables fish migration from downstream to upstream (and vice-versa) the Itaipu Dam, overcoming a 120 m water drop. For that, bottom data from 2002 (its opening year) and 2015 were collected and analyzed, besides bed material at 12 stations to the purpose of identifying their granulometric profiles. The Shields and Yalin and Karahan diagrams for initiation of motion of bed material were used to determine the critical bed shear stress for the sedimentological equilibrium state based on the sort of sediment (grain size) to be found at the bottom once the balance is reached. Such granulometry was inferred by analyzing the grosser material (fine and medium sands) which inflows the pond and deposits in its backwater zone, being adopted a range of diameters within the upper and lower limits of that sand stratification. The software Delft 3D was used in an attempt to compute the bed shear stress at every station under analysis. By modifying the input bathymetry of the main pond of the Piracema Channel so as to the computed bed shear stress at each station fell within the intervals of acceptable critical stresses simultaneously, it was possible to foresee the bed configuration of the main pond when the sedimentological equilibrium is reached. Under such condition, 97% of the whole pond capacity will be silted, and a shallow water course with depths ranging from 0.2 m to 1.5 m will be formed; in 2002, depths ranged from 2 m to 10 m. Out of that water path, the new bottom will be practically flat and covered by a layer of water 0.05 m thick. Thus, in the future the main pond of the Piracema Channel will lack its purpose of providing a resting place for migrating fish species, added to the fact that it may become an insurmountable barrier for medium and large sized specimens. Everything considered, it was estimated that its lifespan, from the year of its opening to the moment of the sedimentological equilibrium configuration, will be approximately 95 years–almost half of the computed lifespan of Itaipu Power Plant itself. However, it is worth mentioning that drawbacks concerning the silting in the main pond will start being noticed much earlier than such time interval owing to the reasons previously mentioned.

Keywords: 3D hydrodynamic modeling, Churchill trapping efficiency, fish crossing system, Itaipu power plant, lifespan, sedimentological equilibrium

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620 Changing the Landscape of Fungal Genomics: New Trends

Authors: Igor V. Grigoriev

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Understanding of biological processes encoded in fungi is instrumental in addressing future food, feed, and energy demands of the growing human population. Genomics is a powerful and quickly evolving tool to understand these processes. The Fungal Genomics Program of the US Department of Energy Joint Genome Institute (JGI) partners with researchers around the world to explore fungi in several large scale genomics projects, changing the fungal genomics landscape. The key trends of these changes include: (i) rapidly increasing scale of sequencing and analysis, (ii) developing approaches to go beyond culturable fungi and explore fungal ‘dark matter,’ or unculturables, and (iii) functional genomics and multi-omics data integration. Power of comparative genomics has been recently demonstrated in several JGI projects targeting mycorrhizae, plant pathogens, wood decay fungi, and sugar fermenting yeasts. The largest JGI project ‘1000 Fungal Genomes’ aims at exploring the diversity across the Fungal Tree of Life in order to better understand fungal evolution and to build a catalogue of genes, enzymes, and pathways for biotechnological applications. At this point, at least 65% of over 700 known families have one or more reference genomes sequenced, enabling metagenomics studies of microbial communities and their interactions with plants. For many of the remaining families no representative species are available from culture collections. To sequence genomes of unculturable fungi two approaches have been developed: (a) sequencing DNA from fruiting bodies of ‘macro’ and (b) single cell genomics using fungal spores. The latter has been tested using zoospores from the early diverging fungi and resulted in several near-complete genomes from underexplored branches of the Fungal Tree, including the first genomes of Zoopagomycotina. Genome sequence serves as a reference for transcriptomics studies, the first step towards functional genomics. In the JGI fungal mini-ENCODE project transcriptomes of the model fungus Neurospora crassa grown on a spectrum of carbon sources have been collected to build regulatory gene networks. Epigenomics is another tool to understand gene regulation and recently introduced single molecule sequencing platforms not only provide better genome assemblies but can also detect DNA modifications. For example, 6mC methylome was surveyed across many diverse fungi and the highest among Eukaryota levels of 6mC methylation has been reported. Finally, data production at such scale requires data integration to enable efficient data analysis. Over 700 fungal genomes and other -omes have been integrated in JGI MycoCosm portal and equipped with comparative genomics tools to enable researchers addressing a broad spectrum of biological questions and applications for bioenergy and biotechnology.

Keywords: fungal genomics, single cell genomics, DNA methylation, comparative genomics

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619 Application of Deep Learning Algorithms in Agriculture: Early Detection of Crop Diseases

Authors: Manaranjan Pradhan, Shailaja Grover, U. Dinesh Kumar

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Farming community in India, as well as other parts of the world, is one of the highly stressed communities due to reasons such as increasing input costs (cost of seeds, fertilizers, pesticide), droughts, reduced revenue leading to farmer suicides. Lack of integrated farm advisory system in India adds to the farmers problems. Farmers need right information during the early stages of crop’s lifecycle to prevent damage and loss in revenue. In this paper, we use deep learning techniques to develop an early warning system for detection of crop diseases using images taken by farmers using their smart phone. The research work leads to building a smart assistant using analytics and big data which could help the farmers with early diagnosis of the crop diseases and corrective actions. The classical approach for crop disease management has been to identify diseases at crop level. Recently, ImageNet Classification using the convolutional neural network (CNN) has been successfully used to identify diseases at individual plant level. Our model uses convolution filters, max pooling, dense layers and dropouts (to avoid overfitting). The models are built for binary classification (healthy or not healthy) and multi class classification (identifying which disease). Transfer learning is used to modify the weights of parameters learnt through ImageNet dataset and apply them on crop diseases, which reduces number of epochs to learn. One shot learning is used to learn from very few images, while data augmentation techniques are used to improve accuracy with images taken from farms by using techniques such as rotation, zoom, shift and blurred images. Models built using combination of these techniques are more robust for deploying in the real world. Our model is validated using tomato crop. In India, tomato is affected by 10 different diseases. Our model achieves an accuracy of more than 95% in correctly classifying the diseases. The main contribution of our research is to create a personal assistant for farmers for managing plant disease, although the model was validated using tomato crop, it can be easily extended to other crops. The advancement of technology in computing and availability of large data has made possible the success of deep learning applications in computer vision, natural language processing, image recognition, etc. With these robust models and huge smartphone penetration, feasibility of implementation of these models is high resulting in timely advise to the farmers and thus increasing the farmers' income and reducing the input costs.

Keywords: analytics in agriculture, CNN, crop disease detection, data augmentation, image recognition, one shot learning, transfer learning

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618 Conceptual Design of Gravity Anchor Focusing on Anchor Towing and Lowering

Authors: Vinay Kumar Vanjakula, Frank Adam, Nils Goseberg

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Wind power is one of the leading renewable energy generation methods. Due to abundant higher wind speeds far away from shore, the construction of offshore wind turbines began in the last decades. However, installation of offshore foundation-based (monopiles) wind turbines in deep waters are often associated with technical and financial challenges. To overcome such challenges, the concept of floating wind turbines is expanded as the basis from the oil and gas industry. The unfolding of Universal heavyweight gravity anchor (UGA) for floating based foundation for floating Tension Leg Platform (TLP) sub-structures is developed in this research work. It is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research) for a three-year (2019-2022) research program called “Offshore Wind Solutions Plus (OWSplus) - Floating Offshore Wind Solutions Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.” It’s a group consists of German institutions (Universities, laboratories, and consulting companies). The part of the project is focused on the numerical modeling of gravity anchor that involves to analyze and solve fluid flow problems. Compared to gravity-based torpedo anchors, these UGA will be towed and lowered via controlled machines (tug boats) at lower speeds. This kind of installation of UGA are new to the offshore wind industry, particularly for TLP, and very few research works have been carried out in recent years. Conventional methods for transporting the anchor requires a large transportation crane vessel which involves a greater cost. This conceptual UGA anchors consists of ballasting chambers which utilizes the concept of buoyancy forces; the inside chambers are filled with the required amount of water in a way that they can float on the water for towing. After reaching the installation site, those chambers are ballasted with water for lowering. After it’s lifetime, these UGA can be unballasted (for erection or replacement) results in self-rising to the sea surface; buoyancy chambers give an advantage for using an UGA without the need of heavy machinery. However, while lowering/rising the UGA towards/away from the seabed, it experiences difficult, harsh marine environments due to the interaction of waves and currents. This leads to drifting of the anchor from the desired installation position and damage to the lowering machines. To overcome such harsh environments problems, a numerical model is built to investigate the influences of different outer contours and other fluid governing shapes that can be installed on the UGA to overcome the turbulence and drifting. The presentation will highlight the importance of the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) numerical model in OpenFOAM, which is open-source programming software.

Keywords: anchor lowering, towing, waves, currrents, computational fluid dynamics

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617 Implementing the WHO Air Quality Guideline for PM2.5 Worldwide can Prevent Millions of Premature Deaths Per Year

Authors: Despina Giannadaki, Jos Lelieveld, Andrea Pozzer, John Evans

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Outdoor air pollution by fine particles ranks among the top ten global health risk factors that can lead to premature mortality. Epidemiological cohort studies, mainly conducted in United States and Europe, have shown that the long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5μm) is associated with increased mortality from cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and lung cancer. Fine particulates can cause health impacts even at very low concentrations. Previously, no concentration level has been defined below which health damage can be fully prevented. The World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines suggest an annual mean PM2.5 concentration limit of 10μg/m3. Populations in large parts of the world, especially in East and Southeast Asia, and in the Middle East, are exposed to high levels of fine particulate pollution that by far exceeds the World Health Organization guidelines. The aim of this work is to evaluate the implementation of recent air quality standards for PM2.5 in the EU, the US and other countries worldwide and estimate what measures will be needed to substantially reduce premature mortality. We investigated premature mortality attributed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under adults ≥ 30yrs and children < 5yrs, applying a high-resolution global atmospheric chemistry model combined with epidemiological concentration-response functions. The latter are based on the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease for 2010, assuming a ‘safe’ annual mean PM2.5 threshold of 7.3μg/m3. We estimate the global premature mortality by PM2.5 at 3.15 million/year in 2010. China is the leading country with about 1.33 million, followed by India with 575 thousand and Pakistan with 105 thousand. For the European Union (EU) we estimate 173 thousand and the United States (US) 52 thousand in 2010. Based on sensitivity calculations we tested the gains from PM2.5 control by applying the air quality guidelines (AQG) and standards of the World Health Organization (WHO), the EU, the US and other countries. To estimate potential reductions in mortality rates we take into consideration the deaths that cannot be avoided after the implementation of PM2.5 upper limits, due to the contribution of natural sources to total PM2.5 and therefore to mortality (mainly airborne desert dust). The annual mean EU limit of 25μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 18%, while within the EU the effect is negligible, indicating that the standard is largely met and that stricter limits are needed. The new US standard of 12μg/m3 would reduce premature mortality by 46% worldwide, 4% in the US and 20% in the EU. Implementing the AQG by the WHO of 10μg/m3 would reduce global premature mortality by 54%, 76% in China and 59% in India. In the EU and US, the mortality would be reduced by 36% and 14%, respectively. Hence, following the WHO guideline will prevent 1.7 million premature deaths per year. Sensitivity calculations indicate that even small changes at the lower PM2.5 standards can have major impacts on global mortality rates.

Keywords: air quality guidelines, outdoor air pollution, particulate matter, premature mortality

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616 Analysing the Stability of Electrical Grid for Increased Renewable Energy Penetration by Focussing on LI-Ion Battery Storage Technology

Authors: Hemendra Singh Rathod

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Frequency is, among other factors, one of the governing parameters for maintaining electrical grid stability. The quality of an electrical transmission and supply system is mainly described by the stability of the grid frequency. Over the past few decades, energy generation by intermittent sustainable sources like wind and solar has seen a significant increase globally. Consequently, controlling the associated deviations in grid frequency within safe limits has been gaining momentum so that the balance between demand and supply can be maintained. Lithium-ion battery energy storage system (Li-Ion BESS) has been a promising technology to tackle the challenges associated with grid instability. BESS is, therefore, an effective response to the ongoing debate whether it is feasible to have an electrical grid constantly functioning on a hundred percent renewable power in the near future. In recent years, large-scale manufacturing and capital investment into battery production processes have made the Li-ion battery systems cost-effective and increasingly efficient. The Li-ion systems require very low maintenance and are also independent of geographical constraints while being easily scalable. The paper highlights the use of stationary and moving BESS for balancing electrical energy, thereby maintaining grid frequency at a rapid rate. Moving BESS technology, as implemented in the selected railway network in Germany, is here considered as an exemplary concept for demonstrating the same functionality in the electrical grid system. Further, using certain applications of Li-ion batteries, such as self-consumption of wind and solar parks or their ancillary services, wind and solar energy storage during low demand, black start, island operation, residential home storage, etc. offers a solution to effectively integrate the renewables and support Europe’s future smart grid. EMT software tool DIgSILENT PowerFactory has been utilised to model an electrical transmission system with 100% renewable energy penetration. The stability of such a transmission system has been evaluated together with BESS within a defined frequency band. The transmission system operators (TSO) have the superordinate responsibility for system stability and must also coordinate with the other European transmission system operators. Frequency control is implemented by TSO by maintaining a balance between electricity generation and consumption. Li-ion battery systems are here seen as flexible, controllable loads and flexible, controllable generation for balancing energy pools. Thus using Li-ion battery storage solution, frequency-dependent load shedding, i.e., automatic gradual disconnection of loads from the grid, and frequency-dependent electricity generation, i.e., automatic gradual connection of BESS to the grid, is used as a perfect security measure to maintain grid stability in any case scenario. The paper emphasizes the use of stationary and moving Li-ion battery storage for meeting the demands of maintaining grid frequency and stability for near future operations.

Keywords: frequency control, grid stability, li-ion battery storage, smart grid

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615 Predicting OpenStreetMap Coverage by Means of Remote Sensing: The Case of Haiti

Authors: Ran Goldblatt, Nicholas Jones, Jennifer Mannix, Brad Bottoms

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Accurate, complete, and up-to-date geospatial information is the foundation of successful disaster management. When the 2010 Haiti Earthquake struck, accurate and timely information on the distribution of critical infrastructure was essential for the disaster response community for effective search and rescue operations. Existing geospatial datasets such as Google Maps did not have comprehensive coverage of these features. In the days following the earthquake, many organizations released high-resolution satellite imagery, catalyzing a worldwide effort to map Haiti and support the recovery operations. Of these organizations, OpenStreetMap (OSM), a collaborative project to create a free editable map of the world, used the imagery to support volunteers to digitize roads, buildings, and other features, creating the most detailed map of Haiti in existence in just a few weeks. However, large portions of the island are still not fully covered by OSM. There is an increasing need for a tool to automatically identify which areas in Haiti, as well as in other countries vulnerable to disasters, that are not fully mapped. The objective of this project is to leverage different types of remote sensing measurements, together with machine learning approaches, in order to identify geographical areas where OSM coverage of building footprints is incomplete. Several remote sensing measures and derived products were assessed as potential predictors of OSM building footprints coverage, including: intensity of light emitted at night (based on VIIRS measurements), spectral indices derived from Sentinel-2 satellite (normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), urban index (UI)), surface texture (based on Sentinel-1 SAR measurements)), elevation and slope. Additional remote sensing derived products, such as Hansen Global Forest Change, DLR`s Global Urban Footprint (GUF), and World Settlement Footprint (WSF), were also evaluated as predictors, as well as OSM street and road network (including junctions). Using a supervised classification with a random forest classifier resulted in the prediction of 89% of the variation of OSM building footprint area in a given cell. These predictions allowed for the identification of cells that are predicted to be covered but are actually not mapped yet. With these results, this methodology could be adapted to any location to assist with preparing for future disastrous events and assure that essential geospatial information is available to support the response and recovery efforts during and following major disasters.

Keywords: disaster management, Haiti, machine learning, OpenStreetMap, remote sensing

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614 The Digital Divide: Examining the Use and Access to E-Health Based Technologies by Millennials and Older Adults

Authors: Delana Theiventhiran, Wally J. Bartfay

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Background and Significance: As the Internet is becoming the epitome of modern communications, there are many pragmatic reasons why the digital divide matters in terms of accessing and using E-health based technologies. With the rise of technology usage globally, those in the older adult generation may not be as familiar and comfortable with technology usage and are thus put at a disadvantage compared to other generations such as millennials when examining and using E-health based platforms and technology. Currently, little is known about how older adults and millennials access and use e-health based technologies. Methods: A systemic review of the literature was undertaken employing the following three databases: (i) PubMed, (ii) ERIC, and (iii) CINAHL; employing the search term 'digital divide and generations' to identify potential articles. To extract required data from the studies, a data abstraction tool was created to obtain the following information: (a) author, (b) year of publication, (c) sample size, (d) country of origin, (e) design/methods, (f) major findings/outcomes obtained. Inclusion criteria included publication dates between the years of Jan 2009 to Aug 2018, written in the English language, target populations of older adults aged 65 and above and millennials, and peer reviewed quantitative studies only. Major Findings: PubMed provided 505 potential articles, where 23 of those articles met the inclusion criteria. Specifically, ERIC provided 53 potential articles, where no articles met criteria following data extraction. CINAHL provided 14 potential articles, where eight articles met criteria following data extraction. Conclusion: Practically speaking, identifying how newer E-health based technologies can be integrated into society and identifying why there is a gap with digital technology will help reduce the impact on generations and individuals who are not as familiar with technology and Internet usage. The largest concern of all is how to prepare older adults for new and emerging E-health technologies. Currently, there is a dearth of literature in this area because it is a newer area of research and little is known about it. The benefits and consequences of technology being integrated into daily living are being investigated as a newer area of research. Several of the articles (N=11) indicated that age is one of the larger factors contributing to the digital divide. Similarly, many of the examined articles (N=5) identify that privacy concerns were one of the main deterrents of technology usage for elderly individuals aged 65 and above. The older adult generation feels that privacy is one of the major concerns, especially in regards to how data is collected, used and possibly sold to third party groups by various websites. Additionally, access to technology, the Internet, and infrastructure also plays a large part in the way that individuals are able to receive and use information. Lastly, a change in the way that healthcare is currently used, received and distributed would also help attribute to the change to ensure that no generation is left behind in a technologically advanced society.

Keywords: digital divide, e-health, millennials, older adults

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
613 Optical and Structural Characterization of Rare Earth Doped Phosphate Glasses

Authors: Zélia Maria Da Costa Ludwig, Maria José Valenzuela Bell, Geraldo Henriques Da Silva, Thales Alves Faraco, Victor Rocha Da Silva, Daniel Rotmeister Teixeira, Vírgilio De Carvalho Dos Anjos, Valdemir Ludwig

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Advances in telecommunications grow with the development of optical amplifiers based on rare earth ions. The focus has been concentrated in silicate glasses although their amplified spontaneous emission is limited to a few tens of nanometers (~ 40nm). Recently, phosphate glasses have received great attention due to their potential application in optical data transmission, detection, sensors and laser detector, waveguide and optical fibers, besides its excellent physical properties such as high thermal expansion coefficients and low melting temperature. Compared with the silica glasses, phosphate glasses provide different optical properties such as, large transmission window of infrared, and good density. Research on the improvement of physical and chemical durability of phosphate glass by addition of heavy metals oxides in P2O5 has been performed. The addition of Na2O further improves the solubility of rare earths, while increasing the Al2O3 links in the P2O5 tetrahedral results in increased durability and aqueous transition temperature and a decrease of the coefficient of thermal expansion. This work describes the structural and spectroscopic characterization of a phosphate glass matrix doped with different Er (Erbium) concentrations. The phosphate glasses containing Er3+ ions have been prepared by melt technique. A study of the optical absorption, luminescence and lifetime was conducted in order to characterize the infrared emission of Er3+ ions at 1540 nm, due to the radiative transition 4I13/2 → 4I15/2. Our results indicate that the present glass is a quite good matrix for Er3+ ions, and the quantum efficiency of the 1540 nm emission was high. A quenching mechanism for the mentioned luminescence was not observed up to 2,0 mol% of Er concentration. The Judd-Ofelt parameters, radiative lifetime and quantum efficiency have been determined in order to evaluate the potential of Er3+ ions in new phosphate glass. The parameters follow the trend as Ω2 > Ω4 > Ω6. It is well known that the parameter Ω2 is an indication of the dominant covalent nature and/or structural changes in the vicinity of the ion (short range effects), while Ω4 and Ω6 intensity parameters are long range parameters that can be related to the bulk properties such as viscosity and rigidity of the glass. From the PL measurements, no red or green upconversion was measured when pumping the samples with laser excitation at 980 nm. As future prospects: Synthesize this glass system with silver in order to determine the influence of silver nanoparticles on the Er3+ ions.

Keywords: phosphate glass, erbium, luminescence, glass system

Procedia PDF Downloads 510
612 Carbon Capture and Storage by Continuous Production of CO₂ Hydrates Using a Network Mixing Technology

Authors: João Costa, Francisco Albuquerque, Ricardo J. Santos, Madalena M. Dias, José Carlos B. Lopes, Marcelo Costa

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Nowadays, it is well recognized that carbon dioxide emissions, together with other greenhouse gases, are responsible for the dramatic climate changes that have been occurring over the past decades. Gas hydrates are currently seen as a promising and disruptive set of materials that can be used as a basis for developing new technologies for CO₂ capture and storage. Its potential as a clean and safe pathway for CCS is tremendous since it requires only water and gas to be mixed under favorable temperatures and mild high pressures. However, the hydrates formation process is highly exothermic; it releases about 2 MJ per kilogram of CO₂, and it only occurs in a narrow window of operational temperatures (0 - 10 °C) and pressures (15 to 40 bar). Efficient continuous hydrate production at a specific temperature range necessitates high heat transfer rates in mixing processes. Past technologies often struggled to meet this requirement, resulting in low productivity or extended mixing/contact times due to inadequate heat transfer rates, which consistently posed a limitation. Consequently, there is a need for more effective continuous hydrate production technologies in industrial applications. In this work, a network mixing continuous production technology has been shown to be viable for producing CO₂ hydrates. The structured mixer used throughout this work consists of a network of unit cells comprising mixing chambers interconnected by transport channels. These mixing features result in enhanced heat and mass transfer rates and high interfacial surface area. The mixer capacity emerges from the fact that, under proper hydrodynamic conditions, the flow inside the mixing chambers becomes fully chaotic and self-sustained oscillatory flow, inducing intense local laminar mixing. The device presents specific heat transfer rates ranging from 107 to 108 W⋅m⁻³⋅K⁻¹. A laboratory scale pilot installation was built using a device capable of continuously capturing 1 kg⋅h⁻¹ of CO₂, in an aqueous slurry of up to 20% in mass. The strong mixing intensity has proven to be sufficient to enhance dissolution and initiate hydrate crystallization without the need for external seeding mechanisms and to achieve, at the device outlet, conversions of 99% in CO₂. CO₂ dissolution experiments revealed that the overall liquid mass transfer coefficient is orders of magnitude larger than in similar devices with the same purpose, ranging from 1 000 to 12 000 h⁻¹. The present technology has shown itself to be capable of continuously producing CO₂ hydrates. Furthermore, the modular characteristics of the technology, where scalability is straightforward, underline the potential development of a modular hydrate-based CO₂ capture process for large-scale applications.

Keywords: network, mixing, hydrates, continuous process, carbon dioxide

Procedia PDF Downloads 52
611 The Effect of the Performance Evolution System on the Productivity of Administrating and a Case Study

Authors: Ertuğrul Ferhat Yilmaz, Ali Riza Perçin

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In the business enterprises implemented modern business enterprise principles, the most important issues are increasing the performance of workers and getting maximum income. Through the twentieth century, rapid development of the sectors of data processing and communication and because of the free trade politics arising of multilateral business enterprises have canceled the economical borders and changed the local rivalry into the spherical rivalry. In this rivalry conditions, the business enterprises have to work active and productive in order to continue their existences. The employees worked at business enterprises have formed the most important factor of product. Therefore, the business enterprises inferring the importance of the human factors in order to increase the profit have used “the performance evolution system” to increase the success and development of the employees. The evolution of the performance is aimed to increase the manpower productive by using the employees in an active way. Furthermore, this system assists the wage politics implemented in business enterprise, determining the strategically plans in business enterprises through the short and long terms, being promoted and determining the educational needs of employees, making decisions as dismissing and work rotation. It requires a great deal of effort to catch the pace of change in the working realm and to keep up ourselves up-to-date. To get the quality in people,to have an effect in workplace depends largely on the knowledge and competence of managers and prospective managers. Therefore,managers need to use the performance evaluation systems in order to base their managerial decisions on sound data. This study aims at finding whether the organizations effectively use performance evaluation systms,how much importance is put on this issue and how much the results of the evaulations have an effect on employees. Whether the organizations have the advantage of competition and can keep on their activities depend to a large extent on how they effectively and efficiently use their employees.Therefore,it is of vital importance to evaluate employees' performance and to make them better according to the results of that evaluation. The performance evaluation system which evaluates the employees according to the criteria related to that organization has become one of the most important topics for management. By means of those important ends mentioned above,performance evaluation system seems to be a tool that can be used to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of organization. Because of its contribution to organizational success, thinking performance evaluation on the axis of efficiency shows the importance of this study on a different angle. In this study, we have explained performance evaluation system ,efficiency and the relation between those two concepts. We have also analyzed the results of questionnaires conducted on the textile workers in Edirne city.We have got positive answers from the questions about the effects of performance evaluation on efficiency.After factor analysis ,the efficiency and motivation which are determined as factors of performance evaluation system have the biggest variance (%19.703) in our sample. Thus, this study shows that objective performance evaluation increases the efficiency and motivation of employees.

Keywords: performance, performance evolution system, productivity, Edirne region

Procedia PDF Downloads 303
610 Design Flood Estimation in Satluj Basin-Challenges for Sunni Dam Hydro Electric Project, Himachal Pradesh-India

Authors: Navneet Kalia, Lalit Mohan Verma, Vinay Guleria

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Introduction: Design Flood studies are essential for effective planning and functioning of water resource projects. Design flood estimation for Sunni Dam Hydro Electric Project located in State of Himachal Pradesh, India, on the river Satluj, was a big challenge in view of the river flowing in the Himalayan region from Tibet to India, having a large catchment area of varying topography, climate, and vegetation. No Discharge data was available for the part of the river in Tibet, whereas, for India, it was available only at Khab, Rampur, and Luhri. The estimation of Design Flood using standard methods was not possible. This challenge was met using two different approaches for upper (snow-fed) and lower (rainfed) catchment using Flood Frequency Approach and Hydro-metrological approach. i) For catchment up to Khab Gauging site (Sub-Catchment, C1), Flood Frequency approach was used. Around 90% of the catchment area (46300 sqkm) up to Khab is snow-fed which lies above 4200m. In view of the predominant area being snow-fed area, 1 in 10000 years return period flood estimated using Flood Frequency analysis at Khab was considered as Probable Maximum Flood (PMF). The flood peaks were taken from daily observed discharges at Khab, which were increased by 10% to make them instantaneous. Design Flood of 4184 cumec thus obtained was considered as PMF at Khab. ii) For catchment between Khab and Sunni Dam (Sub-Catchment, C2), Hydro-metrological approach was used. This method is based upon the catchment response to the rainfall pattern observed (Probable Maximum Precipitation - PMP) in a particular catchment area. The design flood computation mainly involves the estimation of a design storm hyetograph and derivation of the catchment response function. A unit hydrograph is assumed to represent the response of the entire catchment area to a unit rainfall. The main advantage of the hydro-metrological approach is that it gives a complete flood hydrograph which allows us to make a realistic determination of its moderation effect while passing through a reservoir or a river reach. These studies were carried out to derive PMF for the catchment area between Khab and Sunni Dam site using a 1-day and 2-day PMP values of 232 and 416 cm respectively. The PMF so obtained was 12920.60 cumec. Final Result: As the Catchment area up to Sunni Dam has been divided into 2 sub-catchments, the Flood Hydrograph for the Catchment C1 has been routed through the connecting channel reach (River Satluj) using Muskingum method and accordingly, the Design Flood was computed after adding the routed flood ordinates with flood ordinates of catchment C2. The total Design Flood (i.e. 2-Day PMF) with a peak of 15473 cumec was obtained. Conclusion: Even though, several factors are relevant while deciding the method to be used for design flood estimation, data availability and the purpose of study are the most important factors. Since, generally, we cannot wait for the hydrological data of adequate quality and quantity to be available, flood estimation has to be done using whatever data is available. Depending upon the type of data available for a particular catchment, the method to be used is to be selected.

Keywords: design flood, design storm, flood frequency, PMF, PMP, unit hydrograph

Procedia PDF Downloads 326
609 Fuzzy Availability Analysis of a Battery Production System

Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz

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In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.

Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
608 A Numerical Hybrid Finite Element Model for Lattice Structures Using 3D/Beam Elements

Authors: Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Xavier Lorang

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Thanks to the additive manufacturing process, lattice structures are replacing the traditional structures in aeronautical and automobile industries. In order to evaluate the mechanical response of the lattice structures, one has to resort to numerical techniques. Ansys is a globally well-known and trusted commercial software that allows us to model the lattice structures and analyze their mechanical responses using either solid or beam elements. In this software, a script may be used to systematically generate the lattice structures for any size. On the one hand, solid elements allow us to correctly model the contact between the substrates (the supports of the lattice structure) and the lattice structure, the local plasticity, and the junctions of the microbeams. However, their computational cost increases rapidly with the size of the lattice structure. On the other hand, although beam elements reduce the computational cost drastically, it doesn’t correctly model the contact between the lattice structures and the substrates nor the junctions of the microbeams. Also, the notion of local plasticity is not valid anymore. Moreover, the deformed shape of the lattice structure doesn’t correspond to the deformed shape of the lattice structure using 3D solid elements. In this work, motivated by the pros and cons of the 3D and beam models, a numerically hybrid model is presented for the lattice structures to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while avoiding the aforementioned drawbacks of the beam elements. This approach consists of the utilization of solid elements for the junctions and beam elements for the microbeams connecting the corresponding junctions to each other. When the global response of the structure is linear, the results from the hybrid models are in good agreement with the ones from the 3D models for body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) and body-centered cubic without z-struts (BCC) lattice structures. However, the hybrid models have difficulty to converge when the effect of large deformation and local plasticity are considerable in the BCCZ structures. Furthermore, the effect of the junction’s size of the hybrid models on the results is investigated. For BCCZ lattice structures, the results are not affected by the junction’s size. This is also valid for BCC lattice structures as long as the ratio of the junction’s size to the diameter of the microbeams is greater than 2. The hybrid model can take into account the geometric defects. As a demonstration, the point clouds of two lattice structures are parametrized in a platform called LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX. In this process, for each microbeam of the lattice structures, an ellipse is fitted to capture the effect of shape variation and roughness. Each ellipse is represented by three parameters; semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, and angle of rotation. Having the parameters of the ellipses, the lattice structures are constructed in Spaceclaim (ANSYS) using the geometrical hybrid approach. The results show a negligible discrepancy between the hybrid and 3D models, while the computational cost of the hybrid model is lower than the computational cost of the 3D model.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, Ansys, geometric defects, hybrid finite element model, lattice structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 112
607 SME Internationalisation and Its Financing: An Exploratory Study That Analyses Government Support and Funding Mechanisms for Irish and Scottish International SMEs

Authors: L. Spencer, S. O’ Donohoe

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Much of the research to date on internationalisation relates to large firms with much less known about how small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) engage in internationalisation. Given the crucial role of SMEs in contributing to economic growth, there is now an emphasis on the need for SMEs internationalise. Yet little is known about how SMEs undertake and finance such expansion and whether or not internationalisation actually hinders or helps them in securing finance. The purpose of this research is to explore the internationalisation process for SMEs, the sources of funding used in financing this expansion and support received from the state agencies in assisting their overseas expansion. A conceptual framework has been devised which marries the two strands of literature together (internationalisation and financing the firm). The exploratory nature of this research dictates that the most appropriate methodology was to use semi-structured interviews with SME owners; bank representatives and support agencies. In essence, a triangulated approach to the research problem facilitates assessment of the perceptions and experiences from firms, the state and the financial institutions. Our sample is drawn from SMEs operating in Ireland and Scotland, two small but very open economies where SMEs are the dominant form of organisation. The sample includes a range of industry sectors. Key findings to date suggest some SMEs are born global; others are born again global whilst a significant cohort can be classed as traditional internationalisers. Unsurprisingly there is a strong industry effect with firms in the high tech sector more likely to be faster internationalisers in contrast to those in the traditional manufacturing sectors. Owner manager’s own funds are deemed key to financing initial internationalisation lending support for the financial growth life cycle model albeit more important for the faster internationalisers in contrast to the slower cohort who are more likely to deploy external sources especially bank finance. Retained earnings remain the predominant source of on-going financing for internationalising firms but trade credit is often used and invoice discounting is utilised quite frequently. In terms of lending, asset based lending backed by personal guarantees appears paramount for securing bank finance. Whilst the lack of diversified sources of funding for internationalising SMEs was found in both jurisdictions there appears no evidence to suggest that internationalisation impedes firms in securing finance. Finally state supports were cited as important to the internationalisation process, in particular those provided by Enterprise Ireland were deemed very valuable. Considering the paucity of studies to date on SME internationalisation and in particular the funding mechanisms deployed by them; this study seeks to contribute to the body of knowledge in both the international business and finance disciplines.

Keywords: funding, government support, international pathways, modes of entry

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
606 Pediatric Drug Resistance Tuberculosis Pattern, Side Effect Profile and Treatment Outcome: North India Experience

Authors: Sarika Gupta, Harshika Khanna, Ajay K Verma, Surya Kant

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Background: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is a growing health challenge to global TB control efforts. Pediatric DR-TB is one of the neglected infectious diseases. In our previously published report, we have notified an increased prevalence of DR-TB in the pediatric population at a tertiary health care centre in North India which was estimated as 17.4%, 15.1%, 18.4%, and 20.3% in (%) in the year 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Limited evidence exists about a pattern of drug resistance, side effect profile and programmatic outcomes of Paediatric DR-TB treatment. Therefore, this study was done to find out the pattern of resistance, side effect profile and treatment outcome. Methodology: This was a prospective cohort study conducted at the nodal drug-resistant tuberculosis centre of a tertiary care hospital in North India from January 2021 to December 2022. Subjects included children aged between 0-18 years of age with a diagnosis of DR-TB, on the basis of GeneXpert (rifampicin [RIF] resistance detected), line probe assay and drug sensitivity testing (DST) of M. tuberculosis (MTB) grown on a culture of body fluids. Children were classified as monoresistant TB, polyresistant TB (resistance to more than 1 first-line anti-TB drug, other than both INH and RIF), MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB and XDR-TB, as per the WHO classification. All the patients were prescribed DR TB treatment as per the standard guidelines, either shorter oral DR-TB regimen or a longer all-oral MDR/XDR-TB regimen (age below five years needed modification). All the patients were followed up for side effects of treatment once per month. The patient outcomes were categorized as good outcomes if they had completed treatment and cured or were improving during the course of treatment, while bad outcomes included death or not improving during the course of treatment. Results: Of the 50 pediatric patients included in the study, 34 were females (66.7%) and 16 were male (31.4%). Around 33 patients (64.7%) were suffering from pulmonary TB, while 17 (33.3%) were suffering from extrapulmonary TB. The proportions of monoresistant TB, polyresistant TB, MDR-TB, pre-XDR-TB and XDR-TB were 2.0%, 0%, 50.0%, 30.0% and 18.0%, respectively. Good outcome was reported in 40 patients (80.0%). The 10 bad outcomes were 7 deaths (14%) and 3 (6.0%) children who were not improving. Adverse events (single or multiple) were reported in all the patients, most of which were mild in nature. The most common adverse events were metallic taste 16(31.4%), rash and allergic reaction 15(29.4%), nausea and vomiting 13(26.0%), arthralgia 11 (21.6%) and alopecia 11 (21.6%). Serious adverse event of QTc prolongation was reported in 4 cases (7.8%), but neither arrhythmias nor symptomatic cardiac side effects occurred. Vestibular toxicity was reported in 2(3.9%), and psychotic symptoms in 4(7.8%). Hepatotoxicity, hypothyroidism, peripheral neuropathy, gynaecomastia, and amenorrhea were reported in 2 (4.0%), 4 (7.8%), 2 (3.9%), 1(2.0%), and 2 (3.9%) respectively. None of the drugs needed to be withdrawn due to uncontrolled adverse events. Conclusion: Paediatric DR TB treatment achieved favorable outcomes in a large proportion of children. DR TB treatment regimen drugs were overall well tolerated in this cohort.

Keywords: pediatric, drug-resistant, tuberculosis, adverse events, treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 66
605 Implications of Internationalization for Management and Practice in Higher Education

Authors: Naziema Begum Jappie

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The internationalization of higher education has become a focal point for academic institutions worldwide, including those in South Africa. This paper explores the multifaceted implications of internationalization on management and practice within the South African higher education landscape. Universities all over the world are increasingly recognizing the challenges of globalization and the pressures towards internationalization. Internationalization in higher education encompasses a range of activities, including academic exchange programs, research collaborations, joint degree programs, and the recruitment of international students and faculty. In South Africa, this process is driven by various factors, including the quest for global competitiveness, the pursuit of academic excellence, and the promotion of cultural diversity. However, while internationalization presents numerous opportunities, it also brings forth significant challenges that require careful consideration by management and practitioners in higher education institutions. Furthermore, the internationalization of higher education in South Africa has significant implications for teaching and learning practices. With an increasingly diverse student body, educators must employ innovative pedagogical approaches that cater to the needs and preferences of a multicultural cohort. This may involve the integration of global perspectives into the curriculum, the use of technology-enhanced learning platforms, and the promotion of intercultural competence among students and faculty. Additionally, the exchange of knowledge and ideas with international partners can enrich research activities and contribute to the advancement of knowledge in various fields. The internationalization of higher education in South Africa has profound implications for management and practice within academic institutions. While it offers opportunities for enhancing academic quality, promoting cultural exchange, and advancing research agendas, it also presents challenges that require strategic planning, resource allocation, and stakeholder engagement. By addressing these challenges proactively and leveraging the opportunities presented by internationalization, South African universities can position themselves as global leaders in higher education while contributing to the socio-economic development of the country and the continent at large. This paper draws together the international experience in South Africa to explore the emerging patterns of strategy and practice in internationalizing Higher Education and will highlight some critical notions of how the concepts of internationalization and globalization in the context of higher education are understood by those who lead universities and what new challenges are being created as universities seek to become more international. Institutions cannot simply have bullet points in the strategic plan for the recruitment of international students; there has to be a complete commitment to a national strategy of inclusivity. This paper will further examine the leadership styles that ensure transformation together with the goals set out for internationalization. Discussions around adding the international relations dimension to the curriculum. Addressing the issues relevant to cross-border delivery of higher education.

Keywords: challenges, higher education, internationalization, strategic focus

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
604 Abuse against Elderly Widows in India and Selected States: An Exploration

Authors: Rasmita Mishra, Chander Shekher

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Background: Population ageing is an inevitable outcome of demographic transition. Due to increased life expectancy, the old age population in India and worldwide has increased, and it will continue to grow more alarmingly in the near future. There are redundant austerity that has been bestowed upon the widows, thus, the life of widows is never been easy in India. The loss of spouse along with other disadvantaged socioeconomic intermediaries like illiteracy and poverty often make the life of widows more difficult to live. Methodology: Ethical statement: The study used secondary data available in the public domain for its wider use in social research. Thus, there was no requirement of ethical consent in the present study. Data source: Building a Knowledge Base on Population Aging in India (BKPAI), 2011 dataset is used to fulfill the objectives of this study. It was carried out in seven states – Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal – having a higher percentage of the population in the age group 60 years and above compared to the national average. Statistical analysis: Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to understand the level of elderly widows and incidence of abuse against them in India and selected states. Bivariate and Trivariate analysis were carried out to check the pattern of abuse by selected covariates. Chi-Square test is used to verify the significance of the association. Further, Discriminant Analysis (DA) is carried out to understand which factor can separate out group of neglect and non-neglect elderly. Result: With the addition of 27 million from 2001 to 2011, the total elderly population in India is more than 100 million. Elderly females aged 60+ were more widows than their counterpart elderly males. This pattern was observed across selected states and at national level. At national level, more than one tenth (12 percent) of elderly experienced abuse in their lifetime. Incidence of abuse against elderly widows within family was considerably higher than the outside the family. This pattern was observed across the selected place and abuse in the study. In discriminant analysis, the significant difference between neglected and non-neglected elderly on each of the independent variables was examined using group mean and ANOVA. Discussion: The study is the first of its kind to assess the incidence of abuse against elderly widows using large-scale survey data. Another novelty of this study is that it has assessed for those states in India whereby the proportion of elderly is higher than the national average. Place and perpetrators involved in the abuse against elderly widows certainly envisaged the safeness in the present living arrangement of elderly widows. Conclusion: Due to the increasing life expectancy it is expected that the number of elderly will increase much faster than before. As biologically women live longer than men, there will be more women elderly than men. With respect to the living arrangement, after the demise of the spouse, elderly widows are more likely to live with their children who emerged as the main perpetrator of abuse.

Keywords: elderly abuse, emotional abuse physical abuse, material abuse, psychological abuse, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 426
603 Molecular Dynamics Simulation Study of the Influence of Potassium Salts on the Adsorption and Surface Hydration Inhibition Performance of Hexane, 1,6 - Diamine Clay Mineral Inhibitor onto Sodium Montmorillonite

Authors: Justine Kiiza, Xu Jiafang

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The world’s demand for energy is increasing rapidly due to population growth and a reduction in shallow conventional oil and gas reservoirs, resorting to deeper and mostly unconventional reserves like shale oil and gas. Most shale formations contain a large amount of expansive sodium montmorillonite (Na-Mnt), due to high water adsorption, hydration, and when the drilling fluid filtrate enters the formation with high Mnt content, the wellbore wall can be unstable due to hydration and swelling, resulting to shrinkage, sticking, balling, time wasting etc., and well collapse in extreme cases causing complex downhole accidents and high well costs. Recently, polyamines like 1, 6 – hexane diamine (HEDA) have been used as typical drilling fluid shale inhibitors to minimize and/or cab clay mineral swelling and maintain the wellbore stability. However, their application is limited to shallow drilling due to their sensitivity to elevated temperature and pressure. Inorganic potassium salts i.e., KCl, have long been applied for restriction of shale formation hydration expansion in deep wells, but their use is limited due to toxicity. Understanding the adsorption behaviour of HEDA on Na-Mnt surfaces in present of organo-salts, organic K-salts e.g., HCO₂K - main component of organo-salt drilling fluid, is of great significance in explaining the inhibitory performance of polyamine inhibitors. Molecular dynamic simulations (MD) were applied to investigate the influence of HCO₂K and KCl on the adsorption mechanism of HEDA on the Na-Mnt surface. Simulation results showed that adsorption configurations of HEDA are mainly by terminal amine groups with a flat-lying alkyl hydrophobic chain. Its interaction with the clay surface decreased the H-bond number between H₂O-clay and neutralized the negative charge of the Mnt surface, thus weakening the surface hydration ability of Na-Mnt. The introduction of HCO₂K greatly improved inhibition ability, coordination of interlayer ions with H₂O as they were replaced by K+, and H₂O-HCOO- coordination reduced H₂O-Mnt interactions, mobility and transport capability of H₂O molecules were more decreased. While KCl showed little ability and also caused more hydration with time, HCO₂K can be used as an alternative for offshore drilling instead of toxic KCl, with a maximum concentration noted in this study as 1.65 wt%. This study provides a theoretical elucidation for the inhibition mechanism and adsorption characteristics of HEDA inhibitor on Na-Mnt surfaces in the presence of K+-salts and may provide more insight into the evaluation, selection, and molecular design of new clay-swelling high-performance WBDF systems used in oil and gas complex offshore drilling well sections.

Keywords: shale, hydration, inhibition, polyamines, organo-salts, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 47
602 Sentiment Analysis on University Students’ Evaluation of Teaching and Their Emotional Engagement

Authors: Elisa Santana-Monagas, Juan L. Núñez, Jaime León, Samuel Falcón, Celia Fernández, Rocío P. Solís

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Teaching practices have been widely studied in relation to students' outcomes, positioning themselves as one of their strongest catalysts and influencing students' emotional experiences. In the higher education context, teachers become even more crucial as many students ground their decisions on which courses to enroll in based on opinions and ratings of teachers from other students. Unfortunately, sometimes universities do not provide the personal, social, and academic stimulation students demand to be actively engaged. To evaluate their teachers, universities often rely on students' evaluations of teaching (SET) collected via Likert scale surveys. Despite its usefulness, such a method has been questioned in terms of validity and reliability. Alternatively, researchers can rely on qualitative answers to open-ended questions. However, the unstructured nature of the answers and a large amount of information obtained requires an overwhelming amount of work. The present work presents an alternative approach to analyse such data: sentiment analysis. To the best of our knowledge, no research before has included results from SA into an explanatory model to test how students' sentiments affect their emotional engagement in class. The sample of the present study included a total of 225 university students (Mean age = 26.16, SD = 7.4, 78.7 % women) from the Educational Sciences faculty of a public university in Spain. Data collection took place during the academic year 2021-2022. Students accessed an online questionnaire using a QR code. They were asked to answer the following open-ended question: "If you had to explain to a peer who doesn't know your teacher how he or she communicates in class, what would you tell them?". Sentiment analysis was performed using Microsoft's pre-trained model. The reliability of the measure was estimated between the tool and one of the researchers who coded all answers independently. The Cohen's kappa and the average pairwise percent agreement were estimated with ReCal2. Cohen's kappa was .68, and the agreement reached was 90.8%, both considered satisfactory. To test the hypothesis relations among SA and students' emotional engagement, a structural equation model (SEM) was estimated. Results demonstrated a good fit of the data: RMSEA = .04, SRMR = .03, TLI = .99, CFI = .99. Specifically, the results showed that student’s sentiment regarding their teachers’ teaching positively predicted their emotional engagement (β == .16 [.02, -.30]). In other words, when students' opinion toward their instructors' teaching practices is positive, it is more likely for students to engage emotionally in the subject. Altogether, the results show a promising future for sentiment analysis techniques in the field of education. They suggest the usefulness of this tool when evaluating relations among teaching practices and student outcomes.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, students' evaluation of teaching, structural-equation modelling, emotional engagement

Procedia PDF Downloads 85
601 Regularizing Software for Aerosol Particles

Authors: Christine Böckmann, Julia Rosemann

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We present an inversion algorithm that is used in the European Aerosol Lidar Network for the inversion of data collected with multi-wavelength Raman lidar. These instruments measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm, and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm. The algorithm is based on manually controlled inversion of optical data which allows for detailed sensitivity studies and thus provides us with comparably high quality of the derived data products. The algorithm allows us to derive particle effective radius, volume, surface-area concentration with comparably high confidence. The retrieval of the real and imaginary parts of the complex refractive index still is a challenge in view of the accuracy required for these parameters in climate change studies in which light-absorption needs to be known with high accuracy. Single-scattering albedo (SSA) can be computed from the retrieve microphysical parameters and allows us to categorize aerosols into high and low absorbing aerosols. From mathematical point of view the algorithm is based on the concept of using truncated singular value decomposition as regularization method. This method was adapted to work for the retrieval of the particle size distribution function (PSD) and is called hybrid regularization technique since it is using a triple of regularization parameters. The inversion of an ill-posed problem, such as the retrieval of the PSD, is always a challenging task because very small measurement errors will be amplified most often hugely during the solution process unless an appropriate regularization method is used. Even using a regularization method is difficult since appropriate regularization parameters have to be determined. Therefore, in a next stage of our work we decided to use two regularization techniques in parallel for comparison purpose. The second method is an iterative regularization method based on Pade iteration. Here, the number of iteration steps serves as the regularization parameter. We successfully developed a semi-automated software for spherical particles which is able to run even on a parallel processor machine. From a mathematical point of view, it is also very important (as selection criteria for an appropriate regularization method) to investigate the degree of ill-posedness of the problem which we found is a moderate ill-posedness. We computed the optical data from mono-modal logarithmic PSD and investigated particles of spherical shape in our simulations. We considered particle radii as large as 6 nm which does not only cover the size range of particles in the fine-mode fraction of naturally occurring PSD but also covers a part of the coarse-mode fraction of PSD. We considered errors of 15% in the simulation studies. For the SSA, 100% of all cases achieve relative errors below 12%. In more detail, 87% of all cases for 355 nm and 88% of all cases for 532 nm are well below 6%. With respect to the absolute error for non- and weak-absorbing particles with real parts 1.5 and 1.6 in all modes the accuracy limit +/- 0.03 is achieved. In sum, 70% of all cases stay below +/-0.03 which is sufficient for climate change studies.

Keywords: aerosol particles, inverse problem, microphysical particle properties, regularization

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600 Evaluation of the Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion Thermal Effects in Hassi R'Mel Gas Processing Plant Using Fire Dynamics Simulator

Authors: Brady Manescau, Ilyas Sellami, Khaled Chetehouna, Charles De Izarra, Rachid Nait-Said, Fati Zidani

Abstract:

During a fire in an oil and gas refinery, several thermal accidents can occur and cause serious damage to people and environment. Among these accidents, the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) is most observed and remains a major concern for risk decision-makers. It corresponds to a violent vaporization of explosive nature following the rupture of a vessel containing a liquid at a temperature significantly higher than its normal boiling point at atmospheric pressure. Their effects on the environment generally appear in three ways: blast overpressure, radiation from the fireball if the liquid involved is flammable and fragment hazards. In order to estimate the potential damage that would be caused by such an explosion, risk decision-makers often use quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This analysis is a rigorous and advanced approach that requires a reliable data in order to obtain a good estimate and control of risks. However, in most cases, the data used in QRA are obtained from the empirical correlations. These empirical correlations generally overestimate BLEVE effects because they are based on simplifications and do not take into account real parameters like the geometry effect. Considering that these risk analyses are based on an assessment of BLEVE effects on human life and plant equipment, more precise and reliable data should be provided. From this point of view, the CFD modeling of BLEVE effects appears as a solution to the empirical law limitations. In this context, the main objective is to develop a numerical tool in order to predict BLEVE thermal effects using the CFD code FDS version 6. Simulations are carried out with a mesh size of 1 m. The fireball source is modeled as a vertical release of hot fuel in a short time. The modeling of fireball dynamics is based on a single step combustion using an EDC model coupled with the default LES turbulence model. Fireball characteristics (diameter, height, heat flux and lifetime) issued from the large scale BAM experiment are used to demonstrate the ability of FDS to simulate the various steps of the BLEVE phenomenon from ignition up to total burnout. The influence of release parameters such as the injection rate and the radiative fraction on the fireball heat flux is also presented. Predictions are very encouraging and show good agreement in comparison with BAM experiment data. In addition, a numerical study is carried out on an operational propane accumulator in an Algerian gas processing plant of SONATRACH company located in the Hassi R’Mel Gas Field (the largest gas field in Algeria).

Keywords: BLEVE effects, CFD, FDS, fireball, LES, QRA

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599 Bone Mineralization in Children with Wilson’s Disease

Authors: Shiamaa Eltantawy, Gihan Sobhy, Alif Alaam

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Wilson disease, or hepatolenticular degeneration, is an autosomal recessive disease that results in excess copper buildup in the body. It primarily affects the liver and basal ganglia of the brain, but it can affect other organ systems. Musculoskeletal abnormalities, including premature osteoarthritis, skeletal deformity, and pathological bone fractures, can occasionally be found in WD patients with a hepatic or neurologic type. The aim was to assess the prevalence of osteoporosis and osteopenia in Wilson’s disease patients. This case-control study was conducted on ninety children recruited from the inpatient ward and outpatient clinic of the Paediatric Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Nutrition department of the National Liver Institute at Menofia University, aged from 1 to 18 years. Males were 49, and females were 41. Children were divided into three groups: (Group I) consisted of thirty patients with WD; (Group II) consisted of thirty patients with chronic liver disease other than WD; (Group III) consisted of thirty age- and sex-matched healthy The exclusion criteria were patients with hyperparathyroidism, hyperthyroidism, renal failure, Cushing's syndrome, and patients on certain drugs such as chemotherapy, anticonvulsants, or steroids. All patients were subjected to the following: 1- Full history-taking and clinical examination. 2-Laboratory investigations: (FBC,ALT,AST,serum albumin, total protein, total serum bilirubin,direct bilirubin,alkaline phosphatase, prothrombin time, serum critine,parathyroid hormone, serum calcium, serum phosphrus). 3-Bone mineral density (BMD, gm/cm2) values were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA). The results revealed that there was a highly statistically significant difference between the three groups regarding the DEXA scan, and there was no statistically significant difference between groups I and II, but the WD group had the lowest bone mineral density. The WD group had a large number of cases of osteopenia and osteoporosis, but there was no statistically significant difference with the group II mean, while a high statistically significant difference was found when compared to group III. In the WD group, there were 20 patients with osteopenia, 4 patients with osteoporosis, and 6 patients who were normal. The percentages were 66.7%, 13.3%, and 20%, respectively. Therefore, the largest number of cases in the WD group had osteopenia. There was no statistically significant difference found between WD patients on different treatment regimens regarding DEXA scan results (Z-Score). There was no statistically significant difference found between patients in the WD group (normal, osteopenic, or osteoporotic) regarding phosphorus (mg/dL), but there was a highly statistically significant difference found between them regarding ionised Ca (mmol/L). Therefore, there was a decrease in bone mineral density when the Ca level was decreased. In summary, Wilson disease is associated with bone demineralization. The largest number of cases in the WD group in our study had osteopenia (66.7%). Different treatment regimens (zinc monotherapy, Artamin, and zinc) as well as different laboratory parameters have no effect on bone mineralization in WD cases. Decreased ionised Ca is associated with low BMD in WD patients. Children with WD should be investigated for BMD.

Keywords: wilson disease, Bone mineral density, liver disease, osteoporosis

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598 Potential of Water Purification of Turbid Surface Water Sources in Remote Arid and Semi-Arid Rural Areas of Rajasthan by Moringa Oleifera (Drumstick) Tree Seeds

Authors: Pomila Sharma

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Rajasthan is among regions with greatest climate sensitivity and lowest adaptive capabilities. In many parts of the Rajasthan surface water which can be highly turbid and contaminated with fecal coliform bacteria is used for drinking purposes. The majority rely almost exclusively upon traditional sources of highly turbid and untreated pathogenic surface water for their domestic water needs. In many parts of rural areas of Rajasthan, it is still difficult to obtain clean water, especially remote habitations with no groundwater due to quality issues or depletion and limited feasibility to connect with surface water schemes due to low density of population in these areas to justify large infrastructure investment. The most viable sources are rain water harvesting, community managed open wells, private wells, ponds and small-scale irrigation reservoirs have often been the main traditional sources of rural drinking water. Turbidity is conventionally removed by treating the water with expensive chemicals. This study has to investigate the use of crushed seeds from the tree Moringa oleifera (drumstick) as a natural alternative to conventional coagulant chemicals. The use of Moringa oleifera seed powder can produce potable water of higher quality than the original source. Moringa oleifera a native species of northern India, the tree is now grown extensively throughout the tropics and found in many countries of Africa, Asia & South America. The seeds of tree contains significant quantities of low molecular weight, water soluble proteins which carries the positive charge when the crushed seeds are added to water. This protein binds in raw water with negatively charged turbid water with bacteria, clay, algae, etc. Under proper mixing, these particles make flocks, which may be left to settle by gravity or be removed by filtration. Using Moringa oleifera as a replacement coagulation in such surface sources of arid and semi-arid areas can meet the need for water purification in remote places of Rajasthan state of India. The present study accesses to find out laboratory based investigation of the effect of seeds of Moringa tree on its coagulation effectiveness (purification) using turbid water samples of surface source of the Rajasthan state. In this study, moringa seed powder showed that filtering with seed powder may diminish water pollution and bacterial counts. Results showed Moringa oleifera seeds coagulate 90-95% of turbidity and color efficiently leading to an aesthetically clear supernatant & reduced about 85-90% of bacterial load reduction in samples.

Keywords: bacterial load, coagulant, turbidity, water purification

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597 Belarus Rivers Runoff: Current State, Prospects

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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