Search results for: urban sustainability assessment

Authors: Alison Brown

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Through stories, children make sense of their world, see themselves through the eyes of another, and process emotions and lived experiences in a non-threatening and indirect manner. Building on research around the use of narrative techniques with adults and families, this research looked directly at the use of narratives as a therapeutic technique with children in counseling. Based on individual therapy sessions with children over a six-year period, this work of collective case studies tells the story of a practice incorporating children’s narratives, of children’s experiences in writing and sharing their narratives, and of the clinical impact of the use of narratives with children. Not all stories were narratives of success or happiness. Children documented their fears and anger as well as their achievements and hope for the future. What emerged through this study was an awareness of recurring themes in the way children responded to the narrative process and in the benefits and limitations of story writing with children. Consistent with previous studies focusing on narrative work with adults and families, the use of narratives with children provided opportunities for healing, acceptance, developing greater understanding, externalizing, and re-authoring a preferred future. In terms of the children’s experiences in writing and sharing their narratives, consistent themes emerged again, with many children finding the experience cathartic and liberating, empowering and hopeful, but most importantly, an opportunity that allowed them to feel and understand that they were not alone. Whilst a small collection of case studies tells the stories of a limited number of children, it is hoped that this research provides both a model and inspiration for others to explore similar uses of narratives with children. As a greater number of children’s narratives are created, the potential to share and benefit from the many rich stories and experiences of other children becomes more of a reality. Across cultures, economic and social settings, rural and urban environments, and varying family structures, it is important that we hear the voices of our children – ‘In their own words’.

Keywords: narrative therapy children counselling, social, emotional, zone of proximal development, scaffolding

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Authors: Clara Stella Anugerah

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This study actually is a reflection of the general election in 2014. The researcher was interested in this case as the assessment of several phenomenons that happened recently. One of them is the use of social media for the campaign. By this modern era, social media becomes closer with society. It gains the communication process, and by the time being communicating others also becomes easier than before. Furthermore, social media can minimize the cost of communication with many people as a far distance that often comes to be an obstacle of communication does not become a big problem anymore. In Indonesia, the advantages of social media were used by a political party, Gerindra, to face the election that was held on 2014. Actually Gerindra is a newly formed political party that was established in 2008. In spite of Gerindra is the new comer in the election, according to the General Election Committee’s data in Indonesia, Gerindra has the biggest budget than others to cost campaign in social media. Because of that, this research wants to look “how is the pattern of Gerindra party’s campaign to face the general election in 2014? To ask that question, the theory used for this research is campaign method based on ICT (Information Communication Technology) by Rummele. According to the rummele, Gerindra was a party that used a product of social media massively, mainly facebook and twitter. According to that observation, this research focus on campaign that had been done by Gerindra in both of those social media by the time window given by KPU (General Election Committee) on Maret 16th until April 5th, 2014. The conclusion was derived by content analysis method that was used in the methodology. In this context, that method was used while interpreting the content uploaded by Gerindra to facebook or twitter, such as picture and writing. Finally, by that method and reflecting the rummele theory, this research inferred that the patern used for Gerindra’s campaign in social media tends to be top-down. It means: Gerindra showed uncommunicative tendency in social media and only want to catch much mass without mentioned a mission and vision clearly.

Keywords: Gerindra party, political party, social media, campaign, general election on 2014

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Authors: Ali Asgary, Haopeng Zhou, Ghassem Tofighi

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Use of virtual (VR), augmented reality (AR), and extended reality technologies for training and education has increased in recent years as more hardware and software tools have become available and accessible to larger groups of users. Similarly, the applications of these technologies in earthquake related training and education are on the rise. Several studies have reported promising results for the use of VR and AR for evacuation behaviour and training under earthquake situations. They simulate the impacts that earthquake has on buildings, buildings’ contents, and how building occupants and users can find safe spots or open paths to outside. Considering that considerable number of earthquake injuries and fatalities are linked to the behaviour, our goal is to use these technologies to reduce the impacts of building contents on people. Building on our artificial intelligence (AI) based indoor earthquake risk assessment application that enables users to use their mobile device to assess the risks associated with building contents during earthquakes, we develop a virtual reality application to demonstrate the behavior of different building contents during earthquakes, their associate moving, spreading, falling, and collapsing risks, and their risk mitigation methods. We integrate realistic seismic models, building contents behavior with and without risk mitigation measures in virtual reality environment. The application can be used for training of architects, interior design experts, and building users to enhance indoor safety of the buildings that can sustain earthquakes. This paper describes and demonstrates the application development background, structure, components, and usage.

Keywords: virtual reality, earthquake damage, building content, indoor risks, earthquake risk mitigation, interior design, unity game engine, oculus

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Authors: Christakis Chatzichristou, Elias Kranos

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Architectural awards, especially if they are given by the state, recognize excellence in the field and, at the same time, strongly contribute to the making of the architectural culture of a place. The present research looks at the houses that have been awarded through such a system in Cyprus in order to discuss the values promoted, directly or not, by such a setup which is quite similar to other prestigious award systems such as the Mies van de Rohe Prize in Europe. In fact, many of the projects signed out through the state award system end up being selected to represent the country for the European awards. The residential architecture encouraged by such systems is quite interesting in that the most public of institutions influence how the most private unit of society is architecturally accommodated. The methodology uses both qualitative as well as quantitative research tools in order to analyze: the official state call for entries to the competition; the final report of the evaluation committee; the spatial characteristics of the houses through the Space Syntax methodology; the statements of the architects regarding their intentions and the final outcome; the feelings of the owners and users of the houses regarding the design process as well as the degree of satisfaction regarding the final product. The above-mentioned analyses allow for a more thorough discussion regarding not only the values promoted explicitly by the system through the brief that describes what the evaluation committee is looking for but also the values that are actually being promoted indirectly through the results of the actual evaluation itself. The findings suggest that: the strong emphasis in brief on bioclimatic design and issues of sustainability weakens significantly, if at all present, in the actual selection process; continuous improvement seems to be fuzzily used as a concept; most of the houses tend to have a similar spatial genotype; most of the houses have similar aesthetic qualities; discrepancies between the proposed lifestyle through the design and the actual use of the spaces do not seem to be acknowledged in the evaluation as an issue; the temporal factor seems to be ignored as the projects are required to be ‘finished projects’ as though the users and their needs do not change through time. The research suggests that, rather than preserving a critical attitude regarding the role of the architect in society, the state award system tends, like any other non-reflective social organism, to simply promote its own unexamined values as well as prejudices. This is perhaps more evident in the shared aesthetic character of the awarded houses and less so in the hidden spatial genotype to which they belong. If the design of houses is indeed a great opportunity for architecture to contribute in a more deliberate manner to the evolution of society, then what the present study shows is that this opportunity seems to be largely missed. The findings may serve better less as a verdict and more as a chance for introspection and discussion.

Keywords: award systems, houses, spatial genotype, aesthetic qualities

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Authors: Nima Safaei, Arezoo Masoud, Babak Safaei

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In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on the role of urban planning in walking capability and the effects of individual and socioeconomic factors on the physical activity levels of city dwellers. Although considerable number of studies are conducted about walkability and for identifying the effective factors in walking mode choice in developed countries, to our best knowledge, literature lacks in the study of factors affecting choice of walking mode in developing countries. Due to the high importance of health aspects of human societies and in order to make insights and incentives for reducing traffic during rush hours, many researchers and policy makers in the field of transportation planning have devoted much attention to walkability studies; they have tried to improve the effective factors in the choice of walking mode in city neighborhoods. In this study, effective factors in walkability that have proven to have significant impact on the choice of walking mode, are studied at the same time in work trips. The data for the study is collected from the employees in their workplaces by well-instructed people using questionnaires; the statistical population of the study consists of 117 employed people who commute daily from work to home in Rasht city of Iran during the beginning of spring 2015. Results of the study which are found through the linear regression modeling, show that people who do not have freedom of choice for choosing their living locations and need to be present at their workplaces in certain hours have lower levels of walking. Additionally, unlike some of the previous studies which were conducted in developed countries, coincidental effects of Body Mass Index (BMI) and the income level of employees, do not have a significant effect on the walking level in work travels.

Keywords: BMI, linear regression, transportation, walking, work trips

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Authors: Alvin Uchenna Ugwu

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The United Nation’s 2030 agenda and Global Action Programme (GAP) for implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), has mandated all sectors in the societies, including education, to develop strategies towards actualizing sustainability in all facets of the society, by the year 2030. Education is no doubt a key tool for social change. However, educational institutions in most African nations need a paradigmatic shift to strike a balance between policies (curricular) and practices, with regards to Education for Sustainable Development (ESD). The paradigm shift in this regard is described as whole-institution/school approach. The whole institution approaches advocate action-focused ESD. In other words, ESD policy and curriculum makers, formal and non-formal education institutions, need to ‘practice what they preach’. This paper is developed from an ongoing study carried out by the author and guided by two research questions: -What are the views of intermediate phase science and technology preservice teachers on the ESD content included in the science and technology modules? -What challenges or enable intermediate phase science and technology pre-service teachers to learn about ESD in science and technology modules? The study drew from the views and experiences of preservice science teachers, learning about ESD in a university’s college of education in South Africa. Using qualitative case study research design, the research data were generated via questionnaires and focus group discussions. Analysis of generated data indicates that universities and institutions of higher learning need to demonstrate practical involvement while implementing ESD in societies, rather than just standing as knowledge media. Findings of the study further suggest that natural sciences and technology courses in teacher education programmes and other institutions of higher learning, should be perceived as key transformative tools in shaping the consciousness of students towards integrating and fostering ESD in developing countries such as South Africa. Thus, this paper seeks to promote ‘Whole Institution Involvement’ in teacher education colleges in South Africa, as a measure of improving ESD in higher education settings. The paper suggests that in order to achieve ESD in higher education settings and beyond, policies and practices should be reexamined beyond rhetoric and buzzwords. The paper further argues that implementation of ESD is largely influenced by context, hence two different contexts should be examined empirically.

Keywords: education for sustainable development, higher education institutions, pre-service science teachers, qualitative case study research, whole institution involvement

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Authors: Barham J. Nareeman, Ilham I. Mohammed

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Excavations in urban developed area are generally supported by deep excavation walls such as; diaphragm wall, bored piles, soldier piles and sheet piles. In some cases, these walls may be braced by internal braces or tie back anchors. Tie back anchors are by far the predominant method for wall support, the large working space inside the excavation provided by a tieback anchor system has a significant construction advantage. This paper aims to analyze a deep excavation bracing system of contiguous pile wall braced by pre-stressed tie back anchors, which is a part of a huge residential building project, located in Turkey/Gaziantep province. The contiguous pile wall will be constructed with a length of 270 m that consists of 285 piles, each having a diameter of 80 cm, and a center to center spacing of 95 cm. The deformation analysis was carried out by a finite element analysis tool using PLAXIS. In the analysis, beam element method together with an elastic perfect plastic soil model and Soil Hardening Model was used to design the contiguous pile wall, the tieback anchor system, and the soil. The two soil clusters which are limestone and a filled soil were modelled with both Hardening soil and Mohr Coulomb models. According to the basic design, both soil clusters are modelled as drained condition. The simulation results show that the maximum horizontal movement of the walls and the maximum settlement of the ground are convenient with 300 individual case histories which are ranging between 1.2mm and 2.3mm for walls, and 15mm and 6.5mm for the settlements. It was concluded that tied-back contiguous pile wall can be satisfactorily modelled using Hardening soil model.

Keywords: deep excavation, finite element, pre-stressed tie back anchors, contiguous pile wall, PLAXIS, horizontal deflection, ground settlement

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Authors: Haggag H. Mohamed, Ghatass F. Zekry, Shalaby A. Elsayed

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Most sources of air pollution in Egypt are of anthropogenic origin. Alexandria Governorate is located at north of Egypt. The main contributing sectors of air pollution in Alexandria are industry, transportation and area source due to human activities. Alexandria includes more than 40% of the industrial activities in Egypt. Cement manufacture contributes a significant amount to the particulate pollution load. Alexandria Portland Cement Company (APCC) surrounding was selected to be the study area. APCC main kiln stack Total Suspended Particulate (TSP) continuous monitoring data was collected for assessment of dust emission control technology. Electro Static Precipitator (ESP) was fixed on the cement kiln since 2002. The collected data of TSP for first quarter of 2012 was compared to that one in first quarter of 2013 after installation of new bag house filter. In the present study, based on these monitoring data and metrological data a detailed air dispersion modeling investigation was carried out using the Industrial Source Complex Short Term model (ISC3-ST) to find out the impact of applying new bag house filter control technology on the neighborhood ambient air quality. The model results show a drastic reduction of the ambient TSP hourly average concentration from 44.94μg/m3 to 5.78μg/m3 which assures the huge positive impact on the ambient air quality by applying bag house filter technology on APCC cement kiln

Keywords: air pollution modeling, ambient air quality, baghouse filter, cement industry

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Authors: Ahmad Rabby

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The demographic trend analyses of Bombay-duck from time series catch data using CMSY and BSM for the first time in Bangladesh. During 2000-2018, CMSY indicates average lowest production in 2000 and highest in 2018. This has been used in the estimation of prior biomass by the default rules. Possible 31030 viable trajectories for 3422 r-k pairs were found by the CMSY analysis and the final estimates for intrinsic rate of population increase (r) was 1.19 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.957-1.48 year-1. The carrying capacity(k) of Bombay-duck was 283×103 tons with 95% CL=173×103 - 464×103 tons and MSY was 84.3×103tons year-1, 95% CL=49.1×103-145×103 tons year-1. Results from Bayesian state-space implementation of the Schaefer production model (BSM) using catch & CPUE data, found catchabilitiy coefficient(q) was 1.63 ×10-6 from lcl=1.27×10-6 to ucl=2.10×10-6 and r= 1.06 year-1 with 95% CL= 0.727 - 1.55 year-1, k was 226×103 tons with 95% CL=170×103-301×103 tons and MSY was 60×103 tons year-1 with 95% CL=49.9 ×103- 72.2 ×103 tons year-1. Results for Bombay-duck fishery management based on BSM assessment from time series catch data illustrated that, Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364 - 0.775 (if B > 1/2 Bmsy then Fmsy =0.5r); Fmsy=0.531 with 95% CL =0.364-0.775 (r and Fmsy are linearly reduced if B < 1/2Bmsy). Biomass in 2018 was 110×103 tons with 2.5th to 97.5th percentile=82.3-155×103 tons. Relative biomass (B/Bmsy) in last year was 0.972 from 2.5th percentile to 97.5th percentile=0.728 -1.37. Fishing mortality in last year was 0.738 with 2.5th-97.5th percentile=0.525-1.37. Exploitation F/Fmsy was 1.39, from 2.5th to 97.5th percentile it was 0.988 -1.86. The biological reference points of B/BMSY was smaller than 1.0, while F/FMSY was higher than 1.0 revealed an over-exploitation of the fishery, indicating that more conservative management strategies are required for Bombay-duck fishery.

Keywords: biological reference points, catchability coefficient, carrying capacity, intrinsic rate of population increase

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Authors: Obaidul Fattah Tanvir, Zinat Ara Afroze

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Community living adjacent to forests and Protected Areas, especially in South Asian countries, have a common practice in extracting resources for their living and livelihoods. This extraction of resources, because the way it is done, destroys the biophysical features of the area. Deforestation, wildlife poaching, illegal logging, unauthorized hill cutting etc. are some of the serious issues of concern for the sustainability of the natural resources that has a direct impact on environment and climate as a whole. To ensure community involvement in conservation initiatives of the state, community based forest management, commonly known as Comanagement, has been in practice in 6 South Asian countries. These are -India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh. Involving community in forestry management was initiated first in Bangladesh in 1979 and reached as an effective co-management approach through a several paradigm shifts. This idea of Comanagement has been institutionalized through a Government Order (GO) by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of Bangladesh on November 23, 2009. This GO clearly defines the structure and functions of Co-management and its different bodies. Bangladesh Forest Department has been working in association with community to conserve and manage the Forests and Protected areas of Bangladesh following this legal document. Demographically young people constitute the largest segment of population in Bangladesh. This group, if properly sensitized, can produce valuable impacts on the conservation initiatives, both by community and government. This study traced the major factors that motivate community youths to work effectively with different tiers of comanagement organizations in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of Bangladesh. For the purpose of this study, 3 FGDs were conducted with 30 youths from the community living around the Protected Areas of Cox’s bazar, South East corner of Bangladesh, who are actively involved in Co-management organizations. KII were conducted with 5 key officials of Forest Department stationed at Cox’s Bazar. 2 FGDs were conducted with the representatives of 7 Co-management organizations working in Cox’s Bazar region and approaches of different community outreach activities conducted for forest conservation by 3 private organizations and Projects have been reviewed. Also secondary literatures were reviewed for the history and evolution of Co-management in Bangladesh and six South Asian countries. This study found that innovative community outreach activities that are financed by public and private sectors involving youths and community as a whole have played a pivotal role in conservation of forests and Protected Areas of the region. This approach can be replicated in other regions of Bangladesh as well as other countries of South Asia where Co-Management exists in practice.

Keywords: community, co-management, conservation, forests, protected areas, youth

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Authors: Ting Hsiang Chang

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Nowadays in Taiwan, higher education, which was previously more emphasized on teaching-oriented approaches, has gradually shifted to an approach more focusing on students learning outcomes. With student employment rate as an important indicator for University Program Evaluation periodically held by the Ministry of Education, it becomes extremely critical for a university to build up a teaching and learning quality assurance system to bridge the gap between learning and practice. Teaching and Learning Quality Assurance System has been built and implemented at Chaoyang University of Technology for years and has received substantial results. By employing various forms of evaluation and performance appraisals, the effectiveness of teaching and learning can consistently be tracked as a means of ensuring teaching and learning quality. This study aims to explore the evaluation system of teaching and learning quality assurance system at the Chaoyang University of Technology by means of content analysis. The study contents the evaluation reports on the teaching and learning quality assurance at the Chaoyang University of Technology in the Academic Year 2013-2015. The quantitative results of the assessment were analyzed using the five-point Likert Scale. Quality assurance Committee meetings were further held for examining and discussions on the results. To the end, the annual evaluation report is to be produced as references used to improve approaches in both teaching and learning. The findings indicate that there is a respective relationship between the overall teaching evaluation items and the teaching goals and core competencies. In addition, graduates’ feedbacks were also collected for further analysis to examine if the current educational planning is able to achieve the university’s teaching goal and cultivation of core competencies.

Keywords: core competencies, teaching and learning quality assurance system, teaching goals, university program evaluation

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Authors: Igna Brajevic-Gizdic, Magda Pletikosa Pavić

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Introduction: Research in opiate addiction is increasingly indicating the importance of substitution therapy in opiate addicts. Opiate addiction is a chronic relapsing disease that includes craving as a criterion. Craving has been considered a predictor of a relapse, which is defined as a strong desire with an excessive need to take a substance. The study aimed to measure the intensity of craving using the VAS (visual analog scale) in opioid addicts taking Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST). Method: The total sample compromised of 30 participants in outpatient treatment. Two groups of opiate addicts were considered: Methadone-maintenance and buprenorphine-maintenance addicts. The participants completed the survey questionnaire during the outpatient treatment. Results: The results indicated high levels of cravings in patients during the treatment of OST, which is considered an important destabilization factor in abstinence. Thus, the use of methadone/buprenorphine dose should be considered. Conclusion: These findings provided an objective measurement of methadone /buprenorphine dosage and therapy options. The underdoes of OST can put patients at high risk of relapse, resulting in high levels of craving. Thus, when determining the therapeutic dose of OST, it is crucial to consider patients' cravings. This would achieve stabilization more quickly and avoid relapse in abstinence. Subjective physician assessment and patients' statement are the main criteria to determine OST dosage. Future studies should use larger sample sizes and focus on the importance of intensity craving measurement on OST to objectify methadone /buprenorphine dosage.

Keywords: buprenorphine, craving, heroin addicts, methadone, OST

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Authors: Rodrigo De A. Ferrazza, Henry D. M. Garcia, Viviana H. V. Aristizabal, Camilla De S. Nogueira, Cecilia J. Verissimo, Jose Roberto Sartori, Roberto Sartori, Joao Carlos P. Ferreira

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Environmental factors adversely influence sustainability in livestock production system. Dairy herds are the most affected by heat stress among livestock industries. This clearly implies in development of new strategies for mitigating heat, which should be based on physiological and metabolic adaptations of the animal. In this study, we incorporated the effect of climate variables and heat exposure time on the thermoregulatory responses in order to clarify the adaptive mechanisms for bovine heat dissipation under intense thermal stress induced experimentally in climate chamber. Non-lactating Holstein cows were contemporaneously and randomly assigned to thermoneutral (TN; n=12) or heat stress (HS; n=12) treatments during 16 days. Vaginal temperature (VT) was measured every 15 min with a microprocessor-controlled data logger (HOBO®, Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne, MA, USA) attached to a modified vaginal controlled internal drug release insert (Sincrogest®, Ourofino, Brazil). Rectal temperature (RT), respiratory rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) were measured twice a day (0700 and 1500h) and dry matter intake (DMI) was estimated daily. The ambient temperature and air relative humidity were 25.9±0.2°C and 73.0±0.8%, respectively for TN, and 36.3± 0.3°C and 60.9±0.9%, respectively for HS. Respiratory rate of HS cows increased immediately after exposure to heat and was higher (76.02±1.70bpm; P<0.001) than TN (39.70±0.71bpm), followed by rising of RT (39.87°C±0.07 for HS versus 38.56±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001) and VT (39.82±0.10°C for HS versus 38.26±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001). A diurnal pattern was detected, with higher (P<0.01) afternoon temperatures than morning and this effect was aggravated for HS cows. There was decrease (P<0.05) of HR for HS cows (62.13±0.99bpm) compared to TN (66.23±0.79bpm), but the magnitude of the differences was not the same over time. From the third day, there was a decrease of DMI for HS in attempt to maintain homeothermy, while TN cows increased DMI (8.27kg±0.33kg d-1 for HS versus 14.03±0.29kg d-1 for TN; P<0.001). By regression analysis, RT and RR better reflected the response of cows to changes in the Temperature Humidity Index and the effect of climate variables from the previous day to influence the physiological parameters and DMI was more important than the current day, with ambient temperature the most important factor. Comparison between acute (0 to 3 days) and chronic (13 to 16 days) exposure to heat stress showed decreasing of the slope of the regression equations for RR and DMI, suggesting an adaptive adjustment, however with no change for RT. In conclusion, intense heat stress exerted strong influence on the thermoregulatory mechanisms, but the acclimation process was only partial.

Keywords: acclimation, bovine, climate chamber, hyperthermia, thermoregulation

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Authors: Taner Cindik, Ferya Tas Ciftci

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Mobbing in the public sector and specific issues (i.e., the demand for non-pecuniary damages) regarding mobbing have become very important in the light of the precedents constituted by the Turkish Council of State in 2010. The legal scope of mobbing is not able to be determined since the concept of mobbing is not defined in Turkish law system. This study aims to reveal three major problems caused by the lack of laws related to mobbing in the Turkish legal system. First, the absence of an arrangement for disciplinary penalties leads that general provisions in the disciplinary law are implemented. This situation, therefore, causes difficulties in practice. Second, not being drawn of the lines in the topic concerning mobbing in public sector leads confusions in being direction of hostility. Third, the fact that there is a legal gap on seeking non-pecuniary compensation when employees in public sector are exposed to mobbing might make it difficult to obtain non-pecuniary compensation. Within the context of these major problems, civil servants in Turkey do not have enough protection mechanism. However, some possible legal arrangements will help civil servants to protect against mobbing. This study may be considered important because of the fact that mobbing in the public sector is at a significant level and has not been evaluated in this context before. This research is mainly a study of Turkish legal system and evaluates critically law case to determine legal problems. As a result of this study, three main problems might be identified because there is legal gap regarding mobbing in the public sector. In conclusion, the introduction of the major problems related to mobbing in this study might shed light on making the proper regulations of this subject in Turkish law system. In this respect, the plaintiff will be provided convenience in the point of non-pecuniary damages and this study will guide the assessment of legal liability of those who implement mobbing.

Keywords: human rights violations, mobbing, public sector, direction of hostility, non-pecuniary compensation, disciplinary law

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Authors: Dwitya Elvira, Eryati Darwin

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Background: Graves’ disease (GD) is an autoimmune thyroid disease. Imbalance of Th1/Th2 cells and T-regulatory (Treg)/Th17 cells was thought to play pivotal role in the pathogenesis of GD. Treg FoxP3 produced TGF-β to maintain regulatory function, and Th17 cells produced IL-17 as cytokines that were thought in mediating several autoimmune diseases. The aim of this study is to assess the role of IL-17 and TGF-β in the pathogenesis of GD and to investigate its correlation with Thyroid Stimulating Hormone Receptor Antibody (TRAb) and Treg FoxP3 expression. Method: 30 GD patients and 27 age and sex-matched controls were enrolled in this study. Diagnosis of GD was based on clinical and biochemical of GD. Serum IL-17, TGF-β, TRAb, and FoxP3 were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Data were analyzed by using SPSS 21.0 (SPSS Inc.). Spearman rank correlation test was used for assessment of correlation. The statistical significance was accepted as P<0.05. Result: There was no significant correlation between IL-17 and TGF-β serum with expression of FoxP3 level in GD, but there was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb serum level (P<0.05). Serum levels of IL-17 and TGF-β were found to be elevated in patient group compared to control, where mean values of IL-17 were 14.43±2.15 pg/mL and TGF-β were 10.44±3.19 pg/mL in patients group; and in control group, level of IL-17 were 7.1±1.45 pg/mL and TGF-β were 4.95±1.35 pg/mL. Conclusion: Serum Il-17 and TGF-β were elevated in GD patients that reflect the role of inflammatory and regulatory cytokines activation in pathogenesis of GD. There was significant correlation between TGF-β and TRAb, revealing that Treg cytokines may play a role in pathogenesis of GD.

Keywords: IL-17, TGF-B, FoxP3, TRAb, Graves’ disease

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Authors: Martins Onyekwelu Onuorah, Jnr Dahiru Usman

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Introduction: In the realm of public health, the threat posed by Monkeypox continues to elicit concern, prompting rigorous studies to understand its dynamics and devise effective containment strategies. Particularly significant is its recurrence in variable populations, such as the observed outbreak in Nigeria in 2022. In light of this, our study undertakes a meticulous analysis, employing a data-driven approach to explore, validate, and propose optimized intervention strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of Monkeypox within varying demographic structures. Utilizing a deterministic mathematical model, we delved into the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox, with a particular focus on a variable population context. Our qualitative analysis provided insights into the disease-free equilibrium, revealing its stability when R0 is less than one and discounting the possibility of backward bifurcation, as substantiated by the presence of a single stable endemic equilibrium. The model was rigorously validated using real-time data from the Nigerian 2022 recorded cases for Epi weeks 1 – 52. Transitioning from qualitative to quantitative, we augmented our deterministic model with optimal control, introducing three time-dependent interventions to scrutinize their efficacy and influence on the epidemic's trajectory. Numerical simulations unveiled a pronounced impact of the interventions, offering a data-supported blueprint for informed decision-making in containing the disease. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis employing the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR), Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) facilitated a balanced evaluation of the interventions’ economic and health impacts. In essence, our study epitomizes a holistic approach to understanding and mitigating Monkeypox, intertwining rigorous mathematical modeling, empirical validation, and economic evaluation. The insights derived not only bolster our comprehension of Monkeypox's intricate dynamics but also unveil optimized, cost-effective interventions. This integration of methodologies and findings underscores a pivotal stride towards aligning public health imperatives with economic sustainability, marking a significant contribution to global efforts in combating infectious diseases.

Keywords: monkeypox, equilibrium states, stability, bifurcation, optimal control, cost-effectiveness

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Authors: Anyaphat Srithanasuwan, Noppason Pangprasit, Montira Intanon, Phongsakorn Chuammitri, Witaya Suriyasathaporn, Ynte H. Schukken

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Streptococcus uberis is one of the most common mastitis-causing pathogens, with a wide range of intramammary infection (IMI) durations and pathogenicity. This study aimed to compare shared or unique virulence factor gene clusters distinguishing persistent and transient strains of S. uberis. A total of 139 S. uberis strains were isolated from three small-holder dairy herds with a high prevalence of S. uberis mastitis. The duration of IMI was used to categorize bacteria into two groups: transient and persistent strains with an IMI duration of less than 1 month and longer than 2 months, respectively. Six representative S. uberis strains, three from each group (transience and persistence) were selected for analysis. All transient strains exhibited multi-locus sequence types (MLST), indicating a highly diverse population of transient S. uberis. In contrast, MLST of persistent strains was available in an online database (pubMLST). Identification of virulence genes was performed using whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data. Differences in genomic size and number of virulent genes were found. For example, the BCA gene or alpha-c protein and the gene associated with capsule formation (hasAB), found in persistent strains, are important for attachment and invasion, as well as the evasion of the antimicrobial mechanisms and survival persistence, respectively. These findings suggest a genetic-level difference between the two strain types. Consequently, a comprehensive study of 139 S. uberis isolates will be conducted to perform an in-depth genetic assessment through WGS analysis on an Illumina platform.

Keywords: Streptococcus Uberis, mastitis, whole genome sequence, intramammary infection, persistent S. Uberis, transient s. Uberis

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Authors: Sarada Prasad Pradhan, Vikram Vishal, Tariq Siddique

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With a vast area of India comprising of hilly terrain and road cut slopes, landslides and rockfalls are a common phenomenon. However, while landslide studies have received much attention in the past in India, very little literature and analysis is available regarding rockfall hazard of many rockfall prone areas, specifically in Uttarakhand Himalaya, India. The subsequent lack of knowledge and understanding of the rockfall phenomenon as well as frequent incidences of rockfall led fatalities urge the necessity of conducting site-specific rockfall studies to highlight the importance of addressing this issue as well as to provide data for safe design of preventive structures. The present study has been conducted across 10 rockfall prone road cut slopes for a distance of 15 km starting from Devprayag, India along National Highway 58 (NH-58). In order to make a qualitative assessment of Rockfall Hazard posed by these slopes, Rockfall Hazard Rating using standards for Indian Rockmass has been conducted at 10 locations under different slope conditions. Moreover, to accurately predict the characteristics of the possible rockfall phenomenon, numerical simulation was carried out to calculate the maximum bounce heights, total kinetic energies, translational velocities and trajectories of the falling rockmass blocks when simulated on each of these slopes according to real-life conditions. As it was observed that varying slope geometry had more fatal impacts on Rockfall hazard than size of rock masses, several optimizations have been suggested for each slope regarding location of barriers and modification of slope geometries in order to minimize damage by falling rocks. This study can be extremely useful in emphasizing the significance of rockfall studies and construction of mitigative barriers and structures along NH-58 around Devprayag.

Keywords: rockfall, slope stability, rockmass, hazard

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Authors: Evrim Buyukaslan, Simona Jevsnik, Fatma Kalaoglu

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Simulation of fabrics is more difficult than any other simulation due to complex mechanics of fabrics. Most of the virtual garment simulation software use mass-spring model and incorporate fabric mechanics into simulation models. The accuracy and fidelity of these virtual garment simulation software is a question mark. Drape is a subjective phenomenon and evaluation of drape has been studied since 1950’s. On the other hand, fabric and garment simulation is relatively new. Understanding drape perception of subjects when looking at fabric simulations is critical as virtual try-on becomes more of an issue by enhanced online apparel sales. Projected future of online apparel retailing is that users may view their avatars and try-on the garment on their avatars in the virtual environment. It is a well-known fact that users will not be eager to accept this innovative technology unless it is realistic enough. Therefore, it is essential to understand what users see when they are displaying fabrics in a virtual environment. Are they able to distinguish the differences between various fabrics in virtual environment? The purpose of this study is to investigate human perception when looking at a virtual fabric and determine the most visually noticeable drape parameter. To this end, five different fabrics are mechanically tested, and their drape simulations are generated by commercial garment simulation software (Optitex®). The simulation images are processed by an image analysis software to calculate drape parameters namely; drape coefficient, node severity, and peak angles. A questionnaire is developed to evaluate drape properties subjectively in a virtual environment. Drape simulation images are shown to 27 subjects and asked to rank the samples according to their questioned drape property. The answers are compared to the calculated drape parameters. The results show that subjects are quite sensitive to drape coefficient changes while they are not very sensitive to changes in node dimensions and node distributions.

Keywords: drape simulation, drape evaluation, fabric mechanics, virtual fabric

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Authors: Nail Nazarov, Alexandra Vyshtakalyuk, Vyacheslav Semenov, Irina Galyametdinova, Vladimir Zobov, Vladimir Reznik

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Among hepatic pyrimidine used as a means of stimulating protein synthesis and recovery of liver cells in her damaged toxic and infectious etiology. When an experimental toxic hepatitis hepatoprotective activity detected some pyrimidine derivatives. There are literature data on oksimetiluratcila hepatoprotective effect. For analogs of pyrimidine nucleobases - drugs Methyluracilum pentoxy and hepatoprotective effect of weakly expressed. According to the American scientists broad spectrum of biological activity, including hepatoprotective properties, have a 2,4-dioxo-5-arilidenimino uracils. Influenced Xymedon medicinal preparation (1- (beta-hydroxyethyl) -4,6-dimethyl-1,2-dihydro-2-oksopirimidin) developed as a means of stimulating the regeneration of tissue revealed increased activity of microsomal oxidases human liver. In studies on the model of toxic liver damage in rats have shown hepatoprotective effect xymedon and stimulating its impact on the recovery of the liver tissue. Hepatoprotective properties of the new compound in the series of pyrimidine derivatives L-ascorbate 1-(2-hydroxyethyl)-4,6-dimethyl-1,2-dihydropirimidine-2-one synthesized on the basis Xymedon preparation were firstly investigated on rats under the carbon tetrachloride action. It was shown the differences of biochemical parameters from the reference value and severity of structural-morphological liver violations decreased in comparison with control group under the influence of the compound injected before exposure carbon tetrachloride. Hepatoprotective properties of the investigated compound were more pronounced in comparison with Xymedon.

Keywords: hepatoprotectors, pyrimidine derivatives, toxic liver damage, xymedon

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Authors: Ayesha Siddiqua

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Background: Hypertension is a silent killer disease and a common risk factor for considerable morbidity and mortality. Its effects can be seen on the organs like Heart; Brain; Kidneys. In Saudi Arabia, hypertension affects a sizeable enough proportion of the population, with a prevalence of 27.9% in urban and 22.4 in rural population. Despite these features, the magnitude and epidemiological characteristics of this disease have been rarely studied in Saudi Arabia. To fill this gap, we conducted a survey in Abha to study the KAP of hypertension. KAP study shows what people know about certain things, their feelings and behavior towards the disease management. An improvement in the Knowledge and Attitudes towards disease management can reform the kinds of practices which are followed. Objectives: To assess the level of Knowledge, Attitude and Practice of patients who suffer from Hypertension. To improve the Quality of life of patients. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional survey was conducted on a sample size of 130 Hypertensive patients of both the genders enrolled by simple random sampling technique admitted in the Aseer Central Hospital of Abha during the period from October 2016 to December 2016. Results: Altogether 130 hypertensive patients were enrolled in this study with equal no. of Males and Females. Most of the respondents were aged between 18-40 years (45%). On assessing the KAP of the patients, we found that the Knowledge and Attitude score was good but the Practice scores were moderate in both the genders. Conclusion: Our study concludes that a significant proportion of hypertensive patients show less Practice towards the disease management which can lead to severe complications in time being and also result in damage of other vital organs. So there is a need of intense educational intervention for the patients which can be done by Patient counselling by the clinical pharmacist. Strategies to modify lifestyle which help in control of hypertension can include providing leaflets as well as direct educational programs.

Keywords: Attitude, hypertension, Knowledge, practices

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Authors: Ghulam Sohail, Christopher Hawkes

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Pakistan has been facing a growing energy crisis for the last decade, and the government is seeking new horizons for increasing oil and gas production to reduce the gap between supply and demand. Recent developments in technologies to produce natural gas from shales at economical rates has unlocked new horizons for hydrocarbon exploration and development throughout the world. Operating companies in the U.S.A. and Canada have been particularly successful at producing shale gas, so comparing against the properties of shale gas reservoirs in these countries is used for an initial assessment of prospective shale gas reservoirs in other parts of the world. In this study, selected source rocks of Pakistan are evaluated for their shale gas potential using analogs selected from various North American shales for which data have been published. Published data for Pakistani shales were compiled, then assessed and supplemented through consultation with industry professionals. Pakistani formations reviewed are the Datta (shaly sandstone), Hangu (sandy shale), Patala (sandy shale), Ranikot (shaly sandstone), Sembar (sandy shale) and Lower Goru (shaly sandstone) formations, all of which are known source rocks in the Indus Basin. For this study, available geological, geochemical, petrophysical and elastic parameters have been investigated and are correlated specifically with the eight most active shale gas plays of the U.S.A., while data for other North American shale gas plays are used for general discussion on prospective Pakistani shales. The results show that the geological and geochemical parameters of all the Pakistani shales reviewed in this work are promising regarding their shale gas. However, more petrophysical and geomechanical data are required before conclusions on economic production from these shales can be made with confidence.

Keywords: Canada shale gas, Indus Basin, Pakistani shales, U.S.A shale gas

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Authors: Usman Tunde Saadu, Adedayo Adesokan, Raseed Adewale Hamsat

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This study examined the influence of procrastination on the academic achievement of students in tertiary institutions in Kwara State, Nigeria. Descriptive survey was adopted for this study and the total number of 300 respondents participated in the study. Stratified and simple random sampling techniques were used to select 3 institutions and 30 departments respectively. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 10 final year students in each department. Two instruments were used to obtain data from the respondents. Procrastination Assessment Scale adapted from Solomon and Rothblum (1984) and a proforma designed by researchers to obtain students CGPA in 2013/2014 academic session. The reliability score of 0.80 was obtained for the instrument using split half method. One research question and one hypothesis were postulated for this study. Percentage was employed to answer research question while research hypothesis was tested with t-test statistical analysis at 0.05 level of significant. The findings of this study revealed that most of final year students in tertiary institutions in Kwara State procrastinated because 82.3% engaged in procrastination while 17.7% did not procrastinate. Also, the study revealed that there was a significant difference between the academic achievement of tertiary institution students who procrastinate and those who did not procrastinate (cal. t-value =2.634 < critical t-value = 1.960). Students who did not engage in act of procrastinate achieved better academically than students who engage in procrastination. Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations were made; procrastination as a concept, should be taught at the various institutions so that students will understand what the concept is all about. Guidance and counsellor and educational psychologists should be employed at various institutions to handle students who procrastinate so that appropriate methods will be recommended so solve the problem.

Keywords: academic, achievement, procrastination, institution

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Authors: Ghada M. El-Kassas, Maged A. El Wakeel, Salwa R. El-Zayat

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Background: Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is asymptomatic villous atrophy of the small bowel that is prevalent in the developing world and is associated with altered intestinal function and integrity. Evidence has suggested that supplementary omega-3 might ameliorate this damage by reducing gastrointestinal inflammation and may also benefit cognitive development. Objective: We tested whether omega-3 supplementation improves intestinal integrity, growth, and cognitive function in stunted children predicted to have EED. Methodology: 100 Egyptian stunted children aged 1-5 years and 100 age and gender-matched normal children as controls. At the primary phase of the study, we assessed anthropometric measures and fecal markers such as myeloperoxidase (MPO), neopterin (NEO), and alpha-1-anti-trypsin (AAT) (as predictors of EED). Cognitive development was assessed (Bayley or Wechsler scores). Oral n-3 (omega-3) LC-PUFA at a dosage of 500 mg/d was supplemented to all cases and followed up for 6 months after which the 2ry phase of the study included the previous clinical, laboratory and cognitive assessment. Results: Fecal inflammatory markers were significantly higher in cases compared to controls. (MPO), (NEO) and (AAT) showed a significant decline in cases at the end of the 2ry phase (P < 0.001 for all). Omega-3 supplementation resulted also in a significant increase in mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) (P < 0.01), weight for age z-score, and skinfold thicknesses (P< 0.05 for both). Cases showed significant improvement of cognitive function at phase 2 of the study. Conclusions: Omega-3 supplementation successfully improved intestinal inflammatory state related to EED. Also, some improvement of anthropometric and cognitive parameters showed obvious improvement with omega-3 supplementation.

Keywords: cognitive functions, EED, omega-3, stunting

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Authors: Suchana Marahatta, Sabina Bhattarai, Bishnu Hari Paudel, Dilip Thakur

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Background: Every year thousands of patients develop nerve damage and disabilities as a result of leprosy which can be prevented by early detection and treatment. So, early detection and treatment of nerve function impairment is of paramount importance in leprosy. Objectives: To assess the electrophysiological pattern of the peripheral nerves in leprosy patients and to compare it with clinical assessment tools. Materials and Methods: In this comparative cross-sectional study, 74 newly diagnosed leprosy patients without reaction were enrolled. They underwent thorough evaluation for peripheral nerve function impairment using clinical tests [i.e. nerve palpation (NP), monofilament (MF) testing, voluntary muscle testing (VMT)] and nerve conduction study (NCS). Clinical findings were compared with that of NCS using SPSS version 11.5. Results: NCS was impaired in 43.24% of leprosy patient at the baseline. Among them, sensory NCS was impaired in more patients (32.4%) in comparison to motor NCS (20.3%). NP, MF, and VMT were impaired in 58.1%, 25.7%, and 9.4% of the patients, respectively. Maximum concordance of monofilament testing and sensory NCS was found for sural nerve (14.7%). Likewise, the concordance of motor NP and motor NCS was the maximum for ulnar nerve (14.9%). When individual parameters of the NCS were considered, amplitude was found to be the most frequently affected parameter for both sensory and motor NCS. It was impaired in 100% of cases with abnormal NCS findings. Conclusion: Since there was no acceptable concordance between NCS findings and clinical findings, we should consider NCS whenever feasible for early detection of neuropathy in leprosy. The amplitude of both sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) and compound nerve action potential (CAMP) could be important determinants of the abnormal NCS if supported by further studies.

Keywords: leprosy, nerve function impairment, neuropathy, nerve conduction study

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Authors: Chun-Hao Lai, Yu-Fang Huang, Pei-Wei Wang, Meng-Han Lin, Mei-Lien Chen

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Nonylphenol (NP) is a degradation product of nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEOs). It is a well-known endocrine disruptor which may cause estrogenic effects. The growing fetus and infants are more vulnerable to exposure to NP than adults. It is important to know the levels and influences of prenatal exposure to NP. The aims of this study were (1) to determine the levels of prenatal exposure among Taiwanese, (2) to evaluate the potential risk for the infants who were breastfed and exposed to NP through the milk. (3) To investigate the correlation between birth outcomes and prenatal exposure to NP. We analyzed thirty one pairs of maternal urines, placentas, first month’ breast milk by high-performance liquid chromatography coupling with fluorescence detector. The questionnaire included socio- demographics, lifestyle, delivery method, dietary and work history. Information about the birth outcomes were obtained from medical records. The daily intake of NP from breast milk was calculated using deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment methods. The geometric means and geometric standard deviation of NP levels in placenta, and breast milk in the first month were 31.2 (1.8) ng/g, 17.2 (1.6) ng/g, respectively. The medium of daily intake NP in breast milk was 1.33 μg/kg-bw/day in the first month. We found negative association between NP levels of placenta and birth height. And we observed negative correlation between maternal urine NP levels and birth weight. In this study, we could provide the NP exposure profile among Taiwan pregnant women and the daily intake of NP in Taiwan infants. Prenatal exposure to higher levels of NP may increase the risk of lower birth weight and shorter birth height.

Keywords: nonylphenol, mother, fetus, placenta, breast milk, urine

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand in the region of Marlborough. The region is cut by many active crustal faults such as the Wairau, Awatere, and Clarence faults, which give rise to frequent seismic events. This paper presents the preliminary results of the overall project in which liquefaction-induced ground damage maps are developed in the Wairau Plains based on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment NZ guidance. A suite of maps has been developed in relation to the level of details that was available to inform the liquefaction hazard mapping. Maps at the coarsest level of detail make use of regional geologic information, applying semi-quantitative criteria based on geological age, design peak ground accelerations and depth to the water table. The next level of detail incorporates higher resolution surface geomorphologic characteristics to better delineate potentially liquefiable and non-liquefiable deposits across the region. The most detailed assessment utilised CPT sounding data to develop ground damage response curves for areas across the region and provide a finer level of categorisation of liquefaction vulnerability. Linking these with design level earthquakes defined through NZGS guidelines will enable detailed classification to be carried out at CPT investigation locations, from very low through to high liquefaction vulnerability. To update classifications to these detailed levels, CPT investigations in geomorphic regions are grouped together to provide an indication of the representative performance of the soils in these areas making use of the geomorphic mapping outlined above.

Keywords: hazard, liquefaction, mapping, seismicity

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Authors: Lily Ye

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The contemporary fashion industry has witnessed the global rise of Chinese fashion designers. China plays more and more important role in this sector globally. One of the key debates in contemporary time is the conception of Chinese fashion. A close look at previous discussions on Chinese fashion reveals that most of them are explored through the lens of cultural knowledge and assumptions, using the dichotomous models of East and West. The results of these studies generate an essentialist and orientalist notion of Chinoiserie and Chinese fashion, which sees individual designers from China as undifferential collective members marked by a unique and fixed set of cultural scripts. This study challenges this essentialist conceptualization and brings fresh insights to the discussion of Chinese fashion identity against the backdrop of globalisation. Different from a culturalist approach to researching Chinese fashion, this paper presents an alternative position to address the research agenda through the mobilisation of Giddens’ (1991) theory of reflexive identity formation, privileging individuals’ agency and reflexivity. This approach to the discussion of identity formation not only challenges the traditional view seeing identity as the distinctive and essential characteristics belonging to any given individual or shared by all members of a particular social category or group but highlights fashion designers’ strategic agency and their role as fashion activist. This study draws evidence from a textual analysis of published stories of a group of established Chinese designers such as Guo Pei, Huishan Zhang, Masha Ma, Uma Wang, and Ma Ke. In line with Giddens’ concept of 'reflexive project of the self', this study uses a narrative methodology. Narratives are verbal accounts or stories relating to experiences of Chinese fashion designers. This approach offers the fashion designers a chance to 'speak' for themselves and show the depths and complexities of their experiences. It also emphasises the nuances of identity formation in fashion designers, whose experiences cannot be captured in neat typologies. Thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke, 2006) is adopted to identify and investigate common themes across the whole dataset. At the centre of the analysis is individuals’ self-articulation of their perceptions, experiences and themselves in relation to culture, fashion and identity. The finding indicates that identity is constructed around anchors such as agency, cultural hybridity, reflexivity and sustainability rather than traditional collective categories such as culture and ethnicity. Thus, the old East-West dichotomy is broken down, and essentialised social categories are challenged by the multiplicity and fragmentation of self and cultural hybridity created within designers’ 'small narratives'.

Keywords: Chinoiserie, fashion identity, fashion activism, narrative inquiry

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Authors: Noori Shafiqullah

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Millions of people reside downstream of river basins that heavily rely on snowmelt originating from the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Snowmelt plays a critical role as a primary water source in these areas. This study aimed to evaluate snowfall and snowmelt characteristics in the HK region across altitudes ranging from 2019m to 4533m. To achieve this, the study employed a combination of remote sensing techniques and the Snow Model (SM) to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). By integrating the simulated Snow-cover Area (SCA) with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the study optimized the Precipitation Gradient (PG), snowfall assessment, and the degree-day factor (DDF) for snowmelt distribution. Ground observed data from various elevations were used to calculate a temperature lapse rate of -7.0 (°C km-1). Consequently, the DDF value was determined as 3 (mm °C-1 d-1) for altitudes below 3000m and 3 to 4 (mm °C-1 d-1) for higher altitudes above 3000m. Moreover, the distribution of precipitation varies with elevation, with the PG being 0.001 (m-1) at lower elevations below 4000m and 0 (m-1) at higher elevations above 4000m. This study successfully utilized the SM to assess SCA and SWE by incorporating the two optimized parameters. The analysis of simulated SCA and MODIS data yielded coefficient determinations of R2, resulting in values of 0.95 and 0.97 for the years 2014-2015, 2015-2016, and 2016-2017, respectively. These results demonstrate that the SM is a valuable tool for managing water resources in mountainous watersheds such as the HK, where data scarcity poses a challenge."

Keywords: improved MODIS, experiment, snow water equivalent, snowmelt

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

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There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

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