Search results for: risk of natural disasters in Italy and abroad

Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

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Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of 83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and disobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed a greater detection rate compared to other PAE monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in sediment samples compared to water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 mg/kg and 0.00 to 0.028 mg/l, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be approaching permissible limit which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthalates, endocrine disruptor, risk assessment, ecological risk, health risk

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

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Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

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Authors: Deepak Raj Bhat, Akihiko Wakai, Shigeru Ogita, Yorihiro Tanaka, Kazushige Hayashi, Shinro Abe

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In this study, the newly developed finite element methods are used for numerical analysis ofa landslide triggered by the fluctuations of ground-water levels in different cases I-IV. In case I, the ground-water level is fixed in such a way that the overall factor of safety (Fs) would be greater or equal to 1 (i.e., stable condition). Then, the ground-water level is gradually increased up to 1.0 m for, making the overall factor of safety (Fs) less than one (i.e., stable or moving condition). Then, the newly developed finite element model is applied for numerical simulation of the slope for each case. Based on the numerical analysis results of each Cases I-IV, the details of the deformation pattern and shear strain pattern are compared to each other. Moreover, the change in mobilized shear strength and local factor of safety along the slip surface of the landslide for each case are discussed to understand the triggering behaviors of a landslide due to the increased in ground water level. It is expected that this study will help to better understand the role of groundwater fluctuation for triggering of a landslide or slope failure disasters, and it would be also helpful for the judgment of the countermeasure works for the prevention and mitigation of landslide and slope failure disasters in near future.

Keywords: finite element method, ground water fluctuations, constitutive model, landslides, long-term disaster management system

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Authors: Di Han, Lingfeng Li, Peixue Zhang, Yuzhuo Zhang

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Since natural gas extracted from the wellhead of a gas well, after passing through the throttle valve, causes a rapid decrease in temperature along with a decrease in pressure, which creates conditions for hydrate generation. In order to solve the problem of hydrate generation in the process of wellhead gathering, effective measures should be taken to prevent hydrate generation. In this paper, we firstly introduce the principle of natural gas throttling temperature drop and the theoretical basis of hydrate inhibitor injection calculation, and then use HYSYS software to simulate and calculate the three processes and determine the key process parameters. The hydrate control process applicable to the skid design of natural gas wellhead gathering skids was determined by comparing the hydrate control effect, energy consumption of key equipment and process adaptability.

Keywords: natural gas, hydrate control, skid design, HYSYS

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

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Introduction: The problems of unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many research papers found that the performance of existing classifier tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k -nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is one method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. Hence, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest to us in investigating misclassification error rates for class-imbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification application of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Methods: Data from a healthy project for 599 staffs in a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The staffs were diagnosed into one of three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data along with the variables; diabetes risk group, age, gender, cholesterol, and BMI was analyzed and bootstrapped up to 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples show non-normality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. In finding the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions with three choices of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) or (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). Results: The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k = 3 or k = 4 and the prior probabilities of {non-risk:risk:diabetic} as {0.90:0.05:0.05} or {0.80:0.10:0.10} gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. Conclusion: The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: error rate, bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, k-nearest neighbors

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Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

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Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: A. D. Abdellatif, A. N. Ahmed, M. E. Abdelaziz

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The main purpose of this paper is to design a double acceptance sampling plan under the time truncated life test when the product lifetime follows an exponentiated transmuted Weibull distribution. Here, the motive is to meet both the consumer’s risk and producer’s risk simultaneously at the specified quality levels, while the termination time is specified. A comparison between the results of the double and single acceptance sampling plans is conducted. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to real data sets.

Keywords: double sampling plan, single sampling plan, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution, time truncated experiment, single, double, Marshal-Olkin

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Authors: Mamiza Haq

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This paper examines the relevance of bank capital and charter value on bank insolvency and liquidity risks. Using an unbalanced panel of 2,111 unique local banks across 22 countries over 1998-2012, we find that both bank capital and charter value lower insolvency and liquidity risks, but this effect varies among conventional, Islamic, and Islamic-window banks. The risk constraining effect of bank capital becomes more prominent in the post 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, the relationships vary when conditioned upon other key bank-specific characteristics. For instance, the effect of capital on risk-reduction diminishes in the presence of high charter value for conventional-G7 and Islamic-window banks, during-GFC and pre-GFC period; respectively. Our findings have important policy implications related to bank safety. The results are robust to a range of robustness tests.

Keywords: bank capital, charter value, risk, financial crisis

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Authors: Ammar Neshati, Elham Hamidi Shishavan

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Background and Aim: Enamel wear is among the main disadvantages of ceramic restorations. Recently, use of full zirconia crowns without dental porcelain has been suggested. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of feldspathic porcelain and zirconia on the wear of natural teeth. Materials and Methods: In this experimental study, 22 zirconia specimens were fabricated; out of which, 11 specimens were polished and used as zirconia specimens while the remaining 11 were used to fabricate porcelain specimens. A total of 22 natural human teeth were also collected. The natural teeth were photographed by a stereomicroscope in a fixed position and the distance from the cusp tip to a reference point was measured. Next, 11 teeth opposed zirconia and the remaining 11 opposed porcelain specimens in a chewing simulator and subjected to 120,000 masticatory cycles. The teeth were photographed again and the greatest difference between the before and after values was recorded. Results: The mean (± standard deviation) wear rate was 153.8±95.68 and 306.3±127.74, in the zirconia and porcelain groups, respectively; and the two groups had a statistically significant difference in this respect (P=0.007). Conclusion: The mean wear was significantly lower in teeth opposing zirconia than in those opposing feldspathic porcelain.

Keywords: natural tooth wear, feldspathic porcelain, zirconia, effect

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: G. P. Gunasinghe, Lilani Ruhunage, N. P. Ratnayake, G. V. I. Samaradivakara, H. M. R. Premasiri, A. S. Ratnayake, Nimila Dushantha, W. A. P. Weerakoon, K. B. A. Silva

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Sri Lanka is affected by different natural disasters such as tsunami, landslides, lightning, and riverine flood. Out of them, riverine floods act as a major disaster in the country. Different strategies are applied to control the impacts of flood hazards, and the expansion of river mouth is considered as one of the main activities for flood mitigation and disaster reduction. However, due to this expansion process, natural sand barriers including sand spits, barrier islands, and tidal planes are destroyed or subjected to change. This, in turn, can change the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of the area leading to other damages to the natural coastal features. The removal of a considerable portion of naturally formed sand barrier at Kaluganga River outlet (Calido Beach), Sri Lanka to control flooding event at Kaluthara urban area on May 2017, has become a serious issue in the area causing complete collapse of river mouth barrier spit bar system leading to rapid coastal erosion Kaluganga river outlet area and saltwater intrusion into the Kaluganga River. The present investigation is focused on assessing effects due to the removal of a considerable portion of naturally formed sand barrier at Kaluganga river mouth. For this study, the beach profiles, the bathymetric surveys, and Google Earth historical satellite images, before and after the flood event were collected and analyzed. Furthermore, a beach boundary survey was also carried out in October 2018 to support the satellite image data. The results of Google Earth satellite images and beach boundary survey data analyzed show a chronological breakdown of the sand barrier at the river outlet. The comparisons of pre and post-disaster bathymetric maps and beach profiles analysis revealed a noticeable deepening of the sea bed at the nearshore zone as well. Such deepening in the nearshore zone can cause the sea waves to break very near to the coastline. This might also lead to generate new diffraction patterns resulting in differential coastal accretion and erosion scenarios. Unless immediate mitigatory measures were not taken, the impacts may cause severe problems to the sensitive Kaluganag river mouth system.

Keywords: bathymetry, beach profiles, coastal features, river outlet, sand barrier, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Bozena Dohnalkova, Jakub Hodul, Rostislav Drochytka, Jana Kosikova

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This paper deals with a proposal of a new methodology for durability assessment of solidification product for its safe further use. The new methodology is based on a review of the current state of assessment of treated waste in Czech Republic and abroad. The aim of the paper is to propose an optimal evaluation methodology for verifying properties of solidification product to ensure its safe further use in building industry.

Keywords: solidification, stabilization, durability, waste

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Authors: Sepinoud Hamedi

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Over the past few decades, companies have appeared developing concerns in connection to the natural affect of their fabricating exercises. Green supply chain administration has been considered by the producers as a attainable choice to decrease the natural affect of operations whereas at the same time moving forward their operational execution. Contemporaneously the coming of digitalization and globalization within the supply chain space has driven to a developing acknowledgment of the importance of data preparing methodologies, such as enormous information analytics and fake insights innovations, in improving and optimizing supply chain execution. Also, supply chain collaboration in part intervenes the relationship between manufactured innovation and supply chain execution Ponders appear that the use of BDA-AI advances includes a significant impact on natural handle integration and green supply chain collaboration conjointly underlines that both natural handle integration and green supply chain collaboration have a critical affect on natural execution. Correspondingly savvy supply chain contributes to green execution through overseeing green connections and setting up green operations.

Keywords: green supply chain, artificial intelligence, manufacturers, technology, environmental

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Authors: Orla Muldoon, Tamaryn Nicolson, Mike Quayle, Aisling O'Donnell

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Psychology most often considers the role of experience and behaviour in shaping health at the individual level. On the other hand epidemiology has long considered risk at the wider group or structural level. Here we use the social identity approach to integrate group-level risk with individual level behaviour. Using a social identity approach we demonstrate that group or macro-level factors impact implicitly and profoundly in everyday ways at the level of individuals, via social identities. We illustrate how identities related to race, gender and inequality intersect to affect HIV/AIDS risk and AIDS treatment behaviours; how social identity processes drive stigmatising consequences of HIV and AIDS, and promote positive and effective interventions. We conclude by arguing that the social identity approach offers the field an explanatory framework that conceptualizes how social and political forces intersect with individual identity and agency to affect human health.

Keywords: social identity approach, HIV/AIDS, Africa, HIV risk, race, gender

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Authors: Rami S. Alasmari, Abdullah Al Zahrani, Hattan A. Hassani, Hattan A. Hassani, Nawwaf A. Almalky, Abdullah F. Bokhari, Alwalied A. Hafez

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Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2) is a major chronic condition that is considered common among elderly people, with multiple potential complications that could contribute to falls. However, this concept is not well understood, thus, the aim of this study is to determine whether diabetes is an independent risk factor for falls in elderly. In this observational cross-sectional study, 309 diabetic patients aged 60 or more who visited the primary healthcare centers of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs in Jeddah were chosen via convenience sampling method. To collect the data, Semi-structured Fall Risk Assessment questionnaire and Fall Efficacy Score scale were used. The mean age of the participants was estimated to be 68.5 (SD:7.4) years. Among the participants, 48.2% experienced falling before, and 63.1% of them suffered falls in the past 12-months. The results showed that gait problems were independently associated with a higher likelihood of fall among the elderly patients (OR = 1.98, 95%CI, 1.08 to 3.62, p = 0.026. This paper suggests that diabetes mellitus is an independent fall risk factor among elderly. Therefore, identifying such patients as being at higher risk and prompt referral to a specialist falls clinic is recommended.

Keywords: diabetes, fall, elderly, risk factors

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

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Authors: Constâncio Augusto Machanguana, Luís Miguel Estevão Cristóvão

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In Mozambique, over 80% of the rural population relies on agriculture, livestock, and silviculture for their livelihoods. Unfortunately, these communities face persistent food shortages, which are exacerbated by natural disasters and post-harvest losses due to inadequate storage facilities. Addressing post-harvest loss is critical not only for ensuring food security but also for preventing financial hardships faced by farmers. The study delves into the perceptions of beneficiary communities regarding the construction of three food dryer models made from metal, wood, and clay brick. These solar dryers are part of the project titled ‘Solar Dryer Integrated with Natural Rocks as Energy Storage for Drying Fruits and Vegetables in Mozambique.’ The overarching goal is to enhance food availability beyond the typical growing season, particularly for fruits and vegetables, while simultaneously combating hunger. Given the context of climate change impacts on agriculture, this project becomes even more relevant. Structured interviews conducted with 45 members of beneficiary associations in Manica Province—primarily female heads of households—revealed that rural communities are aware of various food drying alternatives. However, reliance on traditional methods often comes at a cost: compromised product quality and reduced shelf life. To address these challenges, the project implemented energy storage solutions like rock-based thermal energy storage for food drying. This result underscores the urgent need to foster innovation and extend these sustainable practices —such as solar dryers integrated with thermal energy-storage systems made of locally abundant and affordable materials— to more local communities, especially those with significant agricultural potential within the country. By taking these actions, we can improve food security and alleviate hunger.

Keywords: solar dryer, food security, rural community, small technology

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

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Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

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The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Moh’d Anwer Al-Shboul

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The year 2011 was a challenging year for Jordanian economy, which felt a variety of effects from the Arab Spring which took place in neighboring countries. Since February, 5th 2012, the Arab Gas Supply Pipeline, which carries natural gas from Egypt through the Sinai Peninsula and to Jordan and Israel, has been attacked more than 39 times. Jordan imported about 80 percent of its necessity of natural gas (about 250 million cubic feet of natural gas per day) from Egypt to generate particularly electricity, with the reminder of being produced locally. Jordan has utilized multiple alternatives to address the interruption of available natural gas supply from Egypt. The Jordanian distributed power plants now rely on the use of heavy fuel oil and diesel for electricity generation, in this case, it costs Jordan about four times than natural gas. The substitution of Egyptian natural gas supplies by fuel oil and diesel, coupled with the 32 percent rise in global fuel prices, has increased Jordan’s energy import bill by over 50 percent in 2011, reaching more than 16 percent of the 2011 GDP. The increase in the cost of electricity generation pushed the Jordanian economy to borrow from multiple internal and external resource channels, thus increasing the public debt. The Jordanian government’s short-term solution to the reduced natural gas supply from Egypt was alternatively purchasing the necessary quantities from some Gulf countries such as Qatar and/or Saudi Arabia, which can be imported with two possible methods. The first method is to rent a ship equipped with a liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, which is currently operating. The second method requires equipping the Aqaba port with an LNG terminal, which also currently is operating. In the long-term, a viable solution to depending on importing expensive and often unreliable natural gas supplies from surrounding countries is to depend more heavily on renewable supply energy, including solar, wind, and water energy.

Keywords: energy supply resources, Arab spring, liquefied natural gas, pipeline, Jordan

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Authors: Debabrata Biswas

Abstract:

The current trend in the development of antibiotic resistance by multiple bacterial pathogens has resulted in a troubling loss of effective antibiotic options for human. The emergence of multi-drug-resistant pathogens has necessitated higher dosages and combinations of multiple antibiotics, further exacerbating the problem of antibiotic resistance. Zoonotic bacterial pathogens, such as Salmonella, Campylobacter, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (such as enterohaemorrhagic E. coli or EHEC), and Listeria are the most common and predominant foodborne enteric infectious agents. It was observed that these pathogens gained/developed their ability to survive in the presence of antibiotics either in farm animal gut or farm environment and researchers believe that therapeutic and sub-therapeutic antibiotic use in farm animal production might play an important role in it. The mechanism of action of antimicrobial components used in farm animal production in genomic interplay in the gut and farm environment, has not been fully characterized. Even the risk of promoting the exchange of mobile genetic elements between microbes specifically pathogens needs to be evaluated in depth, to ensure sustainable farm animal production, safety of our food and to mitigate/limit the enteric infection with multiple antibiotic resistant bacterial pathogens. Due to the consumer’s demand and considering the current emerging situation, many countries are in process to withdraw antibiotic use in farm animal production. Before withdrawing use of the sub-therapeutic antibiotic or restricting the use of therapeutic antibiotics in farm animal production, it is essential to find alternative natural antimicrobials for promoting the growth of farm animal and/or treating animal diseases. Further, it is also necessary to consider whether that compound(s) has the potential to trigger the acquisition or loss of genetic materials in zoonotic and any other bacterial pathogens. Development of alternative therapeutic and sub-therapeutic antimicrobials for farm animal production and food processing and preservation and their effective implementation for sustainable strategies for farm animal production as well as the possible risk for horizontal gene transfer in major enteric pathogens will be focus in the study.

Keywords: food safety, natural antimicrobial, sustainable farming, antibiotic resistance

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Authors: Lim Pey Huan

Abstract:

Yi-Kuan-Tao has been developing in Malaysia for nearly 60 years. It was initially introduced from mainland China and later from Taiwan starting from the 1970s. Yi-Kuan-Tao was considered a 'new religion' for the local Chinese community in Malaysia in its early stages, as Chinese immigrants primarily practiced Taoism, Buddhism, Christianity, or Catholicism upon settling in the region. The overseas propagation and development of Yi-Kuan-Tao today primarily occur through Taiwanese temples, which began spreading abroad as early as 1949. Particularly since the 1970s, with the rapid economic growth of Taiwan, various branches of Taiwanese Yi-Kuan-Tao have gained economic strength to propagate abroad, further expanding the influence of Yi-Kuan-Tao overseas. Southeast Asia is the region out from Taiwan where the propagation and development of Yi-Kuan-Tao are fastest and most concentrated. With approximately over 6 million Chinese inhabitants, Malaysia's pursuit of traditional Chinese culture has led to a flourishing interest in Yi-Kuan-Tao, particularly its advocacy of the unity of Confucianism, Buddhism, and Taoism, with an emphasis on promoting Confucian thought. Moreover, Taiwan's rapid economic development since the 1970s has enabled Yi-Kuan-Tao to allocate significant human and financial resources for external propagation efforts. Additionally, Malaysia's government has adopted a relatively tolerant policy towards religion since that time, further fostering the flourishing development of Yi-Kuan-Tao in Malaysia. Furthermore, this thesis aims to strengthen the lineage and continuity of the Yi-Kuan-Tao tradition, particularly the branch of Fa Yi Chong De, through the perspective of Heavenly Mandate (天命). By examining the different origins and ethnic backgrounds, it investigates how the Malaysian Chinese community has experienced different changes through the cultural baptism of religion, thus delving into the religious influence of Yi-Kuan-Tao. Given that the Fa Yi Chong De Academy in Taiwan is currently in an active development and construction phase, academic works related to Yi-Kuan-Tao will lay a more solid academic foundation for the future establishment of the academy.

Keywords: initial exploration, cultural shifts, Yi-Kuan-Tao, Malaysian Chinese community

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Authors: Patraporn Kaewkhanitarak, Weerawan Marangkun

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to explore the establishment and to investigate the relationship between the gender (male or female) of SME owner-managers/ entrepreneurs and their risk perception in business activity. The study examines the data by interviewing 76 SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs’ responses (37 males, 39 females) in manufacturing, finance, human resources and marketing sector in the economic regions of Songkhla province, Thailand. This study found that four tools which were operation, cash flow, staff, and new market were perceived by the SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs at high level. However, male and female SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs perceived some factors such as the age of SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs, the duration of firm operation, type of firm, and type of business without significant differences. In contrast, the gender affected the risk perception about increasing cost, fierce competition, leapfrog development of firm, substandard staff, namely that male and female perceived these factors with significant differences. According to the research, SME owner-managers/entrepreneurs should develop their risk management competency to deal with the risk efficiently. Secondly, SME firms should gather into groups. Furthermore, it was shown that the five key tools used to manage these risky situations were the use of managerial competencies and clustering.

Keywords: risk perception, owner-managers/entrepreneurs, SME, Songkhla, Thailand

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Authors: Brian Kristopher Cambra

Abstract:

Millions of displaced families are seeking refuge in countries that are not their own due to war, violence, persecution, political unrest, and natural disasters. This global crisis is forcing researchers and practitioners to consider how refugees are coping with the trauma associated with their migration process. Effective therapeutic approaches are needed in a global effort to address the traumatic impact of forced migration. This meta-analytical study investigates the effectiveness of expressive therapeutic modalities, including play, art, music, sandplay, theatre, and writing therapies, in helping children and adolescents cope with refugee trauma. Seventeen pre-post and between-group comparison studies were analyzed using a random-effects model. The combined effect size for pre-post comparisons was medium (g = 0.58), whereas the combined effect size for between-group comparisons was small (g = 0.32). Overall, art therapy was found to be most effective in treating stress symptoms. Heterogeneity tests, however, suggest effect sizes cannot be interpreted as meaningful due to substantial variance. Nevertheless, findings of this meta-analysis indicate that expressive therapies may be among beneficial modalities to integrate with other trauma-informed approaches.

Keywords: expressive therapies, forced migration, meta-analysis, refugees, trauma

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Mehran Zarghami, Jamshid Yazdani Jarati, Mun-Sunn Lye

Abstract:

Fathers may be at risk of depression during the postpartum period. Some studies have been reported maternal depression is the key predictor of paternal postpartum depression (PPD). This study aimed to explore this association. Using a cross-sectional study design, 591 couples referring to primary health centers at 2-8 weeks postpartum (during 2017) were recruited. Couples screened for depression using Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Data on socio-demographic characteristics and psychosocial factors was also gathered. Paternal PPD was analyzed in relation to maternal PPD and other related factors using multiple regressions. The prevalence of Paternal and maternal postpartum depression was 15.7% (93) and 31.8% (188), respectively. The regression model showed that there was increased risk of PPD in fathers whose wives experienced PPD [OR=1.15, (95%CI: 1.04-1.27)], who had a lower state of general health [OR=1.21, (95%CI: 1.11-1.33)], who experienced increased number of life events [OR=1.42, (95%CI: 1.01-1.2.00)], and who were at older age [OR=1.20, (95%CI: 1.05- 1.36)]. Also, there was a decreased risk of depression in fathers with more children compared with those with fewer children [OR=0.20, (95%CI: 0.07-0.53)]. Maternal PPD and psychosocial risk factors were the strong predictors of parental PPD. Being grown up in a family with two depressed parents are an important issue for children and needs futher research and attention.

Keywords: Father, Mother, Postpartum depression, Risk factors

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Authors: Khushboo Ejaz

Abstract:

Community Resilience to Violent Extremism gain importance in the post 9/11 scenario. Resilience is a word that came from the engineering domain. Prior to 9/11, this word community resilience has been used in disasters and natural hazards. The literature on Community Resilience has been published in different multiethnic and multi-religious communities. There is less data and research done on Pakistan’s Community resilience experience. This research is a case study; how local community showed resilience against violent extremism of Tehrik-e-Taliban Swat in the wake of Operation Rah-e- Raast. Qualitative research based on interviews and focus group discussions from male and female groups of different Tehsils of Swat has been carried out to highlight the Community Resilience to Violent Extremism of Tehrik- e- Taliban and Tehrik- e- Nifaz- e -Shariat- e-Muhamadi (TNSM) .NVivo software has been used for data analysis and highlighting all factors of Community Resilience to Violent extremism (CRVE) in Swat . Recommendations has been made in the end to suggest Civil Society Organizations, NGOs and government departments in order to facilitate and enhance community resilience of tribal and rural areas affected by violent elements in Pakistan. This study will fill the gap in literature related to CRVE policies in Pakistani context.

Keywords: community resilience, operation Rah -e Raast, counter extremism, swat, Pakistan

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Authors: Nabila Mohamed, Santiago Aparicio, Bahman Tohidi, Mert Atilhan

Abstract:

Qatar's one of the biggest problem in processing its natural resource, which is natural gas, is the often occurring blockage in the pipelines caused due to uncontrolled gas hydrate formation in the pipelines. Several millions of dollars are being spent at the process site to dehydrate the blockage safely by using chemical inhibitors. We aim to establish national database, which addresses the physical conditions that promotes Qatari natural gas to form gas hydrates in the pipelines. Moreover, we aim to design and test novel hydrate inhibitors that are suitable for Qatari natural gas and its processing facilities. From these perspectives we are aiming to provide more effective and sustainable reservoir utilization and processing of Qatari natural gas. In this work, we present the initial findings of a QNRF funded project, which deals with the natural gas hydrate formation characteristics of Qatari type gas in both experimental (PVTx) and computational (molecular simulations) methods. We present the data from the two fully automated apparatus: a gas hydrate autoclave and a rocking cell. Hydrate equilibrium curves including growth/dissociation conditions for multi-component systems for several gas mixtures that represent Qatari type natural gas with and without the presence of well known kinetic and thermodynamic hydrate inhibitors. Ionic liquids were designed and used for testing their inhibition performance and their DFT and molecular modeling simulation results were also obtained and compared with the experimental results. Results showed significant performance of ionic liquids with up to 0.5 % in volume with up to 2 to 4 0C inhibition at high pressures.

Keywords: gas hydrates, natural gas, ionic liquids, inhibition, thermodynamic inhibitors, kinetic inhibitors

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