Search results for: risk and safety

Authors: Prasanna Kumar Khaund, Sukanya Talukdar

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A concrete gravity dam is a major hydraulic structure and it is very essential to consider the earthquake forces, to get a proper design base width, so that the entire weight of the dam resists the overturning moment due to earthquake and other forces. The main objective of this study is to obtain the design base width of a dam for different seismic conditions by varying the earthquake coefficients in both vertical and horizontal directions. This shall be done by equating the factor of safety against overturning, factor of safety against sliding and factor of safety against shear friction factor for a dam with their limiting values, under both tail water and no tail water condition. The shape of the Mettur dam in India is considered for the study. The study has been done taking a constant head of water at the reservoir, which is the maximum reservoir water level and a constant height of tail water. Using linear approximation method of Newton Raphson, the obtained equations against different factors of safety under different earthquake conditions are solved using a programme in C++ to get different values of base width of dam for varying earthquake conditions.

Keywords: design base width, horizontal earthquake coefficient, tail water, vertical earthquake coefficient

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Marjan Naderan Tahan, Arman Kadkhodai

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An efficient optimization approach, called feasible gate (FG), is developed to enhance the computation efficiency and solution quality of the previously developed highway alignment optimization (HAO) model. This approach seeks to realistically represent various user preferences and environmentally sensitive areas and consider them along with geometric design constraints in the optimization process. This is done by avoiding the generation of infeasible solutions that violate various constraints and thus focusing the search on the feasible solutions. The proposed method is simple, but improves significantly the model’s computation time and solution quality. On the other, highway alignment optimization through Feasible Gates, eventuates only economic model by considering minimum design constrains includes minimum reduce of circular curves, minimum length of vertical curves and road maximum gradient. This modelling can reduce passenger comfort and road safety. In most of highway optimization models, by adding penalty function for each constraint, final result handles to satisfy minimum constraint. In this paper, we want to propose a safety-function solution by introducing gift function.

Keywords: safety, highway geometry, optimization, alignment

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Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

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The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: Korbi Fakhri

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The management of assets and liability is a vital task for every bank as far as a good direction allows its stability; however, a bad running forewarns its disappearance. Equity of a bank is among the most important rubrics in the liability side because, actually, these funds ensure three notably primordial functions for the survival of the bank. From one hand, equity is useful to bankroll the investments and cover the unexpected losses. From another hand, they attract the fund lessors since they inspire trust. So we are going to tackle some points including whether equity of the Islamic banks are oversized. In spite of the efforts made on the subject, the relationship between the capital and the deficiency probability has not been defined with certainty. In this article, we have elaborated a study over the nature of financial intermediation in Islamic banks by comparison to those of conventional ones. We have found a striking difference between two kinds of intermediation. We tried, from another side, to study the relationship between the capital level and deficiency risk relying on econometric model, and we have obtained a positive and significant relation between the capital and the deficiency risk for the conventional banks. This means that when the capital of these banks increases, the deficiency risk increases as well. In return, since the Islamic banks are constrained to respect the Sharia Committee as well as customers’ demands who may, in certain contracts, choose to invest their capitals in projects they are interested in. These constraints have as effects to reduce the deficiency risk even when the capital increases.

Keywords: Islamic bank, conventional bank, deficiency risk, financial intermediation

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Authors: Aline M. Dantas, Alexander T. Sack, Elisabeth Bruggen, Peiran Jiao, Teresa Schuhmann

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Risk-taking behavior has been associated with the activity of specific prefrontal regions of the brain, namely the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). While the deactivation of the rDLPFC has been shown to lead to increased risk-taking behavior, the functional relationship between VMPFC activity and risk-taking behavior is yet to be clarified. Correlational evidence suggests that the VMPFC is involved in valuation processes that involve risky choices, but evidence on the functional relationship is lacking. Therefore, this study uses brain stimulation to investigate the role of the VMPFC during risk-taking behavior and replicate the current findings regarding the role of the rDLPFC in this same phenomenon. We used continuous theta-burst stimulation (cTBS) to inhibit either the VMPFC or DLPFC during the execution of the computerized Maastricht Gambling Task (MGT) in a within-subject design with 30 participants. We analyzed the effects of such stimulation on risk-taking behavior, participants’ choices of probabilities and average values, and response time. We hypothesized that, compared to sham stimulation, VMPFC inhibition leads to a reduction in risk-taking behavior by reducing the appeal to higher-value options and, consequently, the attractiveness of riskier options. Right DLPFC (rDLPFC) inhibition, on the other hand, should lead to an increase in risk-taking due to a reduction in cognitive control, confirming existent findings. Stimulation of both the rDLPFC and the VMPFC led to an increase in risk-taking behavior and an increase in the average value chosen after both rDLPFC and VMPFC stimulation compared to sham. No significant effect on chosen probabilities was found. A significant increase in response time was observed exclusively after rDLPFC stimulation. Our results indicate that inhibiting DLPFC and VMPFC separately leads to similar effects, increasing both risk-taking behavior and average value choices, which is likely due to the strong anatomical and functional interconnection of the VMPFC and rDLPFC.

Keywords: decision-making, risk-taking behavior, brain stimulation, TMS

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Authors: Issam Alnader, Aboubaker Lasebae, Rand Raheem

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Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) are distributed network systems used in a wide range of applications, including safety-critical systems. The latter provide critical services, often concerned with human life or assets. Therefore, ensuring the dependability requirements of Safety critical systems is of paramount importance. The purpose of this paper is to utilize the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to elongate the service availability of WSNs by increasing the time it takes a node to become obsolete via optimal load balancing. We propose an HMM algorithm that, given a WSN, analyses and predicts undesirable situations, notably, nodes dying unexpectedly or prematurely. We apply this technique to improve on C. Lius’ algorithm, a scheduling-based algorithm which has served to improve the lifetime of WSNs. Our experiments show that our HMM technique improves the lifetime of the network, achieved by detecting nodes that die early and rebalancing their load. Our technique can also be used for diagnosis and provide maintenance warnings to WSN system administrators. Finally, our technique can be used to improve algorithms other than C. Liu’s.

Keywords: wireless sensor networks, IoT, dependability of safety WSNs, energy conservation, sleep awake schedule

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Authors: Ava Zarif Sanayei, Sedigheh Sina

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During fluoroscopically guided procedures, healthcare workers, especially radiology trainees, are at risk of exposure to elevated radiation exposure. It is vital to prioritize their safety in such settings. However, there is limited data on their monthly or annual doses. This study aimed to evaluate the equivalent dose to the eyes of the student trainee, utilizing LiF: Mg, Ti (TLD-100) chips at the radiology department of a hospital in Shiraz, Iran. Initially, the dosimeters underwent calibration procedures with the assistance of ISO-PTW calibrated phantoms. Following this, a set of dosimeters was prepared To determine HP(3) value for a trainee involved in the main operation room and controlled area utilized for two months. Three TLD chips were placed in a holder and attached to her eyeglasses. Upon completion of the duration, the TLDs were read out using a Harshaw TLD reader. Results revealed that Hp(3) value was 0.31±0.04 mSv. Based on international recommendations, students in radiology training above 18 have an annual dose limit of 0.6 rem (6 mSv). Assuming a 12-month workload, staff radiation exposure stayed below the annual limit. However, the Trainee workload may vary due to different deeds. This study's findings indicate the need for consistent, precise dose monitoring in IR facilities. Students can undertake supervised internships for up to 500 hours, depending on their institution. These internships take place in health-focused environments offering radiology services, such as clinics, diagnostic imaging centers, and hospitals. Failure to do so might result in exceeding occupational radiation dose limits. A 0.5 mm lead apron effectively absorbs 99% of radiation. To ensure safety, technologists and staff need to wear this protective gear whenever they are in the room during procedures. Furthermore, maintaining a safe distance from the primary beam is crucial. In cases where patients need assistance and must be held for imaging, additional protective equipment, including lead goggles, gloves, and thyroid shields, should be utilized for optimal safety.

Keywords: annual dose limits, Hp(3), individual monitoring, radiation protection, TLD-100

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Authors: Ferdi Afian, Inne Yuliawati

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Background: The change in causes of death from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases also occurs in the aviation community in Indonesia. Non-communicable diseases are influenced by several internal risk factors, such as age, lifestyle changes and the presence of other diseases. These risk factors will increase the incidence of heart diseases resulting in the incapacity of Indonesian aviators which will disrupt flight safety. Method: The study was conducted by collecting secondary data. The retrieval of primary data was obtained from medical records at the Indonesian Aviation Health Center in 2016-2017. The subjects in this study were all cases of incapacity in Indonesian aviators medical conditions. Results: In this study, there were 15 cases of aviators in Indonesia who experienced incapacity of medical conditions related to heart and lung diseases in 2016-2017. Based on the secondary data contained in the flight medical records at the Aviation Health Center Aviation, it was found that several factors related to aviators incapacity causing its inability to carried out flight duties. Conclusion: Incapacity of Indonesian aviators medical conditions are most affected by the high value of Body Mass Index (86%) and less affected by high of Uric Acid in the blood (26%) and Hyperglycemia (26%).

Keywords: incapacity, aviators, flight, Indonesia

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Authors: Iris W. A. Boot, Anke Wesselius, Maurice P. Zeegers

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Diet may play an essential role in the aetiology of bladder cancer (BC). Vitamin D is involved in various biological functions which have the potential to prevent BC development. Besides, vitamin D also influences the uptake of calcium and phosphorus , thereby possibly indirectly influencing the risk of BC. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relation between vitamin D intake and BC risk. Individual dietary data were pooled from three cohort studies. Food item intake was converted to daily intakes of vitamin D, calcium and phosphorus. Pooled multivariate hazard ratios (HRs), with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained using Cox-regression models. Analyses were adjusted for gender, age and smoking status (Model 1), and additionally for the food groups fruit, vegetables and meat (Model 2). Dose–response relationships (Model 1) were examined using a nonparametric test for trend. In total, 2,871 cases and 522,364 non-cases were included in the analyses. The present study showed an overall increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake (HR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03-1.26). A similar increase BC risk with high vitamin D intake was observed among women and for the non-muscle invasive BC subtype, (HR: 1.41, 95% CI: 1.15-1.72, HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.01-1.27, respectively). High calcium intake decreased the BC risk among women (HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.67-0.97). A combined inverse effect on BC risk was observed for low vitamin D intake and high calcium intake (HR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.48-0.93), while a positive effect was observed for high vitamin D intake in combination with low, moderate and high phosphorus (HR: 1.31, 95% CI: 1.09-1.59, HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.01-1.36, HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.03-1.31, respectively). Combining all nutrients showed a decreased BC risk for low vitamin D intake, high calcium and moderate phosphor intake (HR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.18-0.75), and an increased BC risk for moderate intake of all the nutrients (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.02-1.38), for high vitamin D and low calcium and phosphor intake (HR: 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01-1.62), and for moderate vitamin D and calcium and high phosphorus intake (HR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59). No significant dose-response analyses were observed. The findings of this study show an increased BC risk for high dietary vitamin D intake and a decreased risk for high calcium intake. Besides, the study highlights the importance of examining the effect of a nutrient in combination with complementary nutrients for risk assessment. Future research should focus on nutrients in a wider context and in nutritional patterns.

Keywords: bladder cancer, nutritional oncology, pooled cohort analysis, vitamin D

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Authors: Arundhati Devi Maibam, K. Ingocha Singh

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Cervical cancer is preventable if detected early. Determination of risk factors is essential to plan screening programmes to prevent the disease. To study the demographic risk factors of cervical cancer among Manipuri women, information on age, marital status, educational level, monthly family income and socioeconomic status were collected through a pre-tested interview schedule. In this study, 64 incident cases registered at the RT Dept, RIMS (Regional Institute of Medical Sciences), Imphal, Manipur, India during 2008-09 participated. Data were entered in Microsoft Excel and the results were expressed in percentages. Among the 64 patients with cervical cancer, 56 (88.9%) were in the age group of 40+ years. The majority of the patients were from rural areas (68.75%) and 31.25% were from urban areas. The majority of the patients were Hindus (73%), 55(85.9%) were of low educational level, 43(67.2%) were married, and 36 (56.25%) belonged to Class IV socioeconomic status. In conclusion, if detected early, cervical cancer is preventable and curable. The potential risk factors need to be identified and women in the risk group need to be motivated for screening. Affordable screening programmes and health care resources will help in lessening the burden of the disease.

Keywords: cervical cancer, Manipuri women, RIIMS, socio-demographic risk factors

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Authors: Anna Bjällmark, Victoria Persson, Bodil Karlsson, May Bazzi

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Introduction: Interventional radiology (IR) is a continuously growing discipline that allows minimally invasive treatments of various medical conditions. The IR environment is, in several ways, comparable to the complex and accident-prone operation room (OR) environment. This implies that the IR environment may also be associated with various types of risks related to the work process and communication in the team. Patient safety is a central aspect of healthcare and involves the prevention and reduction of adverse events related to patient care. To maintain patient safety, it is crucial to build a safety culture where the staff are encouraged to report events and incidents that may have affected patient safety. It is also important to continuously evaluate the staff´s attitudes to patient safety. Despite the increasing number of IR procedures, research on the staff´s view regarding patients is lacking. Therefore, the main aim of the study was to describe and compare the IR team members' attitudes to patient safety. The secondary aim was to evaluate whether the WHO safety checklist was routinely used for IR procedures. Methods: An electronic survey was distributed to 25 interventional units in Sweden. The target population was the staff working in the IR team, i.e., physicians, radiographers, nurses, and assistant nurses. A modified version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) was used. Responses from 19 of 25 IR units (44 radiographers, 18 physicians, 5 assistant nurses, and 1 nurse) were received. The respondents rated their level of agreement for 27 items related to safety culture on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “Disagree strongly” to “Agree strongly.” Data were analyzed statistically using SPSS. The percentage of positive responses (PPR) was calculated by taking the percentage of respondents who got a scale score of 75 or higher. The respondents rated which corresponded to response options “Agree slightly” or “Agree strongly”. Thus, average scores ≥ 75% were classified as “positive” and average scores < 75% were classified as “non-positive”. Findings: The results indicated that the IR team had the highest factor scores and the highest percentages of positive responses in relation to job satisfaction (90/94%), followed by teamwork climate (85/92%). In contrast, stress recognition received the lowest ratings (54/25%). Attitudes related to these factors were relatively consistent between different professions, with only a few significant differences noted (Factor score: p=0.039 for job satisfaction, p=0.050 for working conditions. Percentage of positive responses: p=0.027 for perception of management). Radiographers tended to report slightly lower values compared to other professions for these factors (p<0.05). The respondents reported that the WHO safety checklist was not routinely used at their IR unit but acknowledged its importance for patient safety. Conclusion: This study reported high scores concerning job satisfaction and teamwork climate but lower scores concerning perception of management and stress recognition indicating that the latter are areas of improvement. Attitudes remained relatively consistent among the professions, but the radiographers reported slightly lower values in terms of job satisfaction and perception of the management. The WHO safety checklist was considered important for patient safety.

Keywords: interventional radiology, patient safety, safety attitudes questionnaire, WHO safety checklist

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Authors: Fahrur Rozi, Daniswara Krisna Prabatha, Latief Zulfikar Chusaini

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Amidst the backdrop of Pertamina Plaju Refinery, which stands as the oldest and historically less technologically advanced among Pertamina's refineries, lies a unique challenge. Originally integrating facilities established by Shell in 1904 and Stanvac (originally Standard Oil) in 1926, the primary challenge at Plaju Refinery does not solely revolve around complexity; instead, it lies in ensuring reliability, considering its operational history of over a century. After centuries of existence, Plaju Refinery has never undergone a comprehensive major turnaround encompassing all its units. The usual practice involves partial turnarounds that are sequentially conducted across its primary, secondary, and tertiary units (utilities and offsite). However, a significant shift is on the horizon. In the Q-IV of 2023, the refinery embarks on its first-ever major turnaround since its establishment. This decision was driven by the alignment of maintenance timelines across various units. Plaju Refinery's major turnaround was scheduled for October-November 2023, spanning 45 calendar days, with the objective of enhancing the operational reliability of all refinery units. The extensive job list for this turnaround encompasses 1583 tasks across 18 units/areas, involving approximately 9000 contracted workers. In this context, the Strategy of Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS) execution emerges as a pivotal tool to optimize time efficiency and ensure safety. A Hazard Effect Management Process (HEMP) has been employed to assess the risk ratings of each task within the turnaround. Out of the tasks assessed, 22 are deemed high-risk and necessitate mitigation. The SIMOPS approach serves as a preventive measure against potential incidents. It is noteworthy that every turnaround period at Pertamina Plaju Refinery involves SIMOPS-related tasks. In this context, enhancing the implementation strategy of "Simultaneous Operations (SIMOPS)" becomes imperative to minimize the occurrence of incidents. At least four improvements have been introduced in the enhancement process for the major turnaround at Refinery Plaju. The first improvement involves conducting systematic risk assessment and potential hazard mitigation studies for SIMOPS tasks before task execution, as opposed to the previous on-site approach. The second improvement includes the completion of SIMOPS Job Mitigation and Work Matrices Sheets, which was often neglected in the past. The third improvement emphasizes comprehensive awareness to workers/contractors regarding potential hazards and mitigation strategies for SIMOPS tasks before and during the major turnaround. The final improvement is the introduction of a daily program for inspecting and observing work in progress for SIMOPS tasks. Prior to these improvements, there was no established program for monitoring ongoing activities related to SIMOPS tasks during the turnaround. This study elucidates the steps taken to enhance SIMOPS within Pertamina, drawing from the experiences of Plaju Refinery as a guide. A real actual case study will be provided from our experience in the operational unit. In conclusion, these efforts are essential for the success of the first-ever major turnaround at Plaju Refinery, with the SIMOPS strategy serving as a central component. Based on these experiences, enhancements have been made to Pertamina's official Internal Guidelines for Executing SIMOPS Risk Mitigation, benefiting all Pertamina units.

Keywords: process safety management, turn around, oil refinery, risk assessment

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Authors: Arej Alhemimah

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This study investigates the influence of tourists’ perceptions of destination image on their intention to use a tourism app. It examines the roles played by tourists’ perceptions of app/website usability, information quality, and risk in shaping tourism destination image and, subsequently, their app use intention. Using an online questionnaire, the study surveyed 194 international tourists in Saudi Arabia. Results were analysed using PLS-SEM. All the proposed hypotheses were supported and significant. Perceived risk had the strongest influence, followed by the influence of tourists’ perceptions of information quality, then app usability. Additionally, perceived risk was found to have a strong effect on the application use intention. The study makes a significant contribution to the tourism website/application literature; its implications provide practical insights and recommendations for destination marketers and managers to improve their online and social media presence in terms of enhancing e-platform usability, quality of provided information, and most importantly, to create a destination strategy to manage tourists’ risk perceptions.

Keywords: destination image, perceived risk, use intention, tourism app, information quality

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Authors: Navah Z. Ratzon, Rachel Shichrur

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Background: Many studies have assessed and identified the risk factors of safe driving, but there is relatively little research-based evidence concerning the ability to improve the driving skills of drivers in general and in particular of bus drivers, who are defined as a population at risk. Accidents involving bus drivers can endanger dozens of passengers and cause high direct and indirect damages. Objective: To examine the effectiveness of a metacognitive-functional intervention program for the reduction of risk factors among professional drivers relative to a control group. Methods: The study examined 77 bus drivers working for a large public company in the center of the country, aged 27-69. Twenty-one drivers continued to the intervention stage; four of them dropped out before the end of the intervention. The intervention program we developed was based on previous driving models and the guiding occupational therapy practice framework model in Israel, while adjusting the model to the professional driving in public transportation and its particular risk factors. Treatment focused on raising awareness to safe driving risk factors identified at prescreening (ergonomic, perceptual-cognitive and on-road driving data), with reference to the difficulties that the driver raises and providing coping strategies. The intervention has been customized for each driver and included three sessions of two hours. The effectiveness of the intervention was tested using objective measures: In-Vehicle Data Recorders (IVDR) for monitoring natural driving data, traffic accident data before and after the intervention, and subjective measures (occupational performance questionnaire for bus drivers). Results: Statistical analysis found a significant difference between the degree of change in the rate of IVDR perilous events (t(17)=2.14, p=0.046), before and after the intervention. There was significant difference in the number of accidents per year before and after the intervention in the intervention group (t(17)=2.11, p=0.05), but no significant change in the control group. Subjective ratings of the level of performance and of satisfaction with performance improved in all areas tested following the intervention. The change in the ‘human factors/person’ field, was significant (performance : t=- 2.30, p=0.04; satisfaction with performance : t=-3.18, p=0.009). The change in the ‘driving occupation/tasks’ field, was not significant but showed a tendency toward significance (t=-1.94, p=0.07,). No significant differences were found in driving environment-related variables. Conclusions: The metacognitive-functional intervention significantly improved the objective and subjective measures of safety of bus drivers’ driving. These novel results highlight the potential contribution of occupational therapists, using metacognitive functional treatment, to preventing car accidents among the healthy drivers population and improving the well-being of these drivers. This study also enables familiarity with advanced technologies of IVDR systems and enriches the knowledge of occupational therapists in regards to using a wide variety of driving assessment tools and making the best practice decisions.

Keywords: bus drivers, IVDR, human risk factors, metacognitive-functional intervention

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Authors: Mohammad Lutfur Rahman

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School students of Dhaka are in extreme risk of natural disasters. However, the study on assessment of the real scenario of high school students about perceptions of earthquake is very little. The purpose of this cross-sectional study is to assess the seismic risk perception and preparedness levels about earthquake among high school students in Shavar, Dhaka. A questionnaire was developed, and data collection was done about a group of high school students in seven classrooms. The author uses a method of surveying high school students to identify and describe the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions about earthquake. This study examines gender and grade differences in perceived risk and communication behavior in response to the earthquake. Female students’ preparation, participation, and communication with family are more frequent than that of male students. Female students have been found to be more likely to learn about a disaster than male students. Higher grade students have more awareness but less preparedness about earthquake than that of the younger one. This research concludes that irrespective of grades, high school students are vulnerable to earthquake due to the lack of a seismic education program.

Keywords: awareness, earthquake, risk perception, seismic

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Ismail Muratoglu, Ahmet Meyveci, Abdurrahman Tuncer, Erkan Demirci

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This study is dedicated to the analysis of the problems of occupational safety in Turkey, Italy and Poland. The need analysis was applied to three different countries which are Turkey; 4, Poland; 1, Italy; 1 state. The number of the subjects is 891 in Turkey. The number of the subjects is 26 in Italy and the number of the subjects is 19 in Poland. The total number of samples of study is 936. Four different forms (Job Security Experts Form, Student Form, Teacher Form and Company Form) were applied. Results of experts of job security forms are rate of 7.1%. Then, the students’ forms are rate of 34.3%, teacher or instructor forms are rate of 9.9%. The last corporation forms are rate of 48.7%.

Keywords: Europe, need analysis, occupational safety, Turkey, vocational education

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Authors: Hassan S. Naeini

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Nowadays a lot of people are working in several sorts of industrial sectors in which there are some risk factors which threaten human being especially in developing countries. One of the main problems which effect on workers’ health refers to Ergonomics. Ergonomics as multidisciplinary science concerns workers’ health and safety in terms of somatic and mental concepts. Surely ergonomics interventions and improvement make a better condition for workers and change the quality of working life to better condition. In this study, one of the factories in Iran which is producing some kinds of small and medium size of refrigerators was chosen as the sample. The preliminary ergonomics observation of the mentioned factory showed that there are some risk factors in terms of ergonomics aspects, so an ergonomic intervention was defined, then some ergonomic assessment methods such as NMQ,OWAS, and Environmental Ergonomic Assessment were used. Also Anthropometric measurement was done. This study shows that there are some workstations and plants which suffer some degrees of ergonomic problems. Considering with the gathered data, illumination, noise control and workstation design in metal workstation are known as the priority actions. Some parts of the mentioned interventions are ongoing actions. it seems that the mentioned intervention and workstations design make a better condition for workers, because ergonomics make a safer and more sustainable environments for human being.

Keywords: anthropometry, ergonomics, health, NMQ, OWAS

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Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

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Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

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Authors: Manthan Patel, Vinit Ahlawat, Anshh Singh Claire, Pijush Samui

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This paper focuses on the analysis of quicksand condition for a dam foundation. The quicksand condition occurs in cohesion less soil when effective stress of soil becomes zero. In a dam, the saturated sediment may appear quite solid until a sudden change in pressure or shock initiates liquefaction. This causes the sand to form a suspension and lose strength hence resulting in failure of dam. A soil profile shows different properties at different points and the values obtained are uncertain thus reliability analysis is performed. The reliability is defined as probability of safety of a system in a given environment and loading condition and it is assessed as Reliability Index. The reliability analysis of dams under quicksand condition is carried by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Reliability index and factor of safety relating to liquefaction of soil is analysed using GPR. The results of reliability analysis by GPR is compared to that of conventional method and it is demonstrated that on applying GPR the probabilistic analysis reduces the computational time and efforts.

Keywords: factor of safety, GPR, reliability index, quicksand

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Authors: Omar Amoudi, Latifa Al Brashdi

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Construction projects are always subject to risks and uncertainties due to its unique and dynamic nature, outdoor work environment, the wide range of skills employed, various parties involved in addition to situation of construction business environment at large. Altogether, these risks and uncertainties affect projects objectives and lead to cost overruns, delay, and poor quality. Construction projects in Oman often experience cost overruns and delay. Managing these risks and reducing their impacts on construction cost requires firstly identifying these risks, and then analyzing their severity on project cost to obtain deep understanding about these risks. This in turn will assist construction managers in managing and tacking these risks. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors that affect construction projects cost in the Sultanate of Oman. In order to achieve the main aim, literature review was carried out to identify the main risk factors affecting construction cost. Thirty-three risk factors were identified from the literature. Then, a questionnaire survey was designed and distributed among construction professionals (i.e., client, contractor and consultant) to obtain their opinion toward the probability of occurrence for each risk factor and its possible impact on construction project cost. The collected data was analyzed based on qualitative aspects and in several ways. The severity of each risk factor was obtained by multiplying the probability occurrence of a risk factor with its impact. The findings of this study reveal that the most significant risk factors that have high severity impact on construction project cost are: Change of Oil Price, Delay of Materials and Equipment Delivery, Changes in Laws and Regulations, Improper Budgeting, and Contingencies, Lack of Skilled Workforce and Personnel, Delays Caused by Contractor, Delays of Owner Payments, Delays Caused by Client, and Funding Risk. The results can be used as a basis for construction managers to make informed decisions and produce risk response procedures and strategies to tackle these risks and reduce their negative impacts on construction project cost.

Keywords: construction cost, construction projects, Oman, risk factors, risk management

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Authors: Rauno Pääkkönen, Fabriziomaria Gobba, Leena Korpinen

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The objective of the study is to assess the implementation of LED lighting into forest machine work in the dark. In addition, the paper includes a wide variety of important and relevant safety and health parameters. In modern, computerized work in the cab of forest machines, artificial illumination is a demanding task when performing duties, such as the visual inspections of wood and computer calculations. We interviewed entrepreneurs and gathered the following as the most pertinent themes: (1) safety, (2) practical problems, and (3) work with LED lighting. The most important comments were in regards to the practical problems of LED lighting. We found indications of technical problems in implementing LED lighting, like snow and dirt on the surfaces of lamps that dim the emission of light. Moreover, service work in the dark forest is dangerous and increases the risks of on-site accidents. We also concluded that the amount of blue light to the eyes should be assessed, especially, when the drivers are working in a semi-dark cab.

Keywords: forest machines, health, LED, safety

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Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

Procedia PDF Downloads 439

Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

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Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

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Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

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Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of 83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and disobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed a greater detection rate compared to other PAE monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in sediment samples compared to water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 mg/kg and 0.00 to 0.028 mg/l, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be approaching permissible limit which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthalates, endocrine disruptor, risk assessment, ecological risk, health risk

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Authors: Moshiur Rahman, Tahmida Jakia

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Bangladesh, a densely populated South Asian country is home to more than 160 million people. In two decades ago, the people of this developing nation drank heavily contaminated surface water. Over the past thirty years, the country, and its development partners, has undertaken extensive efforts to provide microbiologically safe groundwater based drinking water through the use of tube-wells. About 85% of the people now drink tube-well water from about 11 million tube-wells/hand pumps. However, diarrhoeal and other water-related diseases are still reported among the major causes of morbidity and mortality among Bangladeshi children. This implies that the mode of transmission of pathogens through water and/or other modes continue. In addition, massive scale arsenic contamination has been recently reported in the ground water. Thirty five million people may be at risk of consuming arsenic contaminated water exceeding 0.05 mg/l in Bangladesh. Drinking of arsenic contaminated water has been linked with skin problems, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, neurological diseases, eye problems, cancer of the internal organs, and other diseases. In the study area, Narail district, recent investigations about existing water quality situations indicated presence of low to high levels of arsenic, salinity, iron, manganese and bacteriological contamination risks. As challenges for safe water exist; it is likely that sanitation and food hygiene practices are poor which lead threat to ensure food security.The main attempt of this study is to find out the challenges to ensure food security andprovide probable solutions to ensure food safety towards 0.7 million of people in study area. A survey has been conducted at Lohagara and Kalia sub district of Narail district with a pretested questionnaire. Primary data are collected through a questionnaire, while secondary data are collected from pertinent offices as well as academic journals. FGD has also been done to know the knowledge regarding water, sanitation as well as food preparation and consumption practice of community people in study area. The major focus of this study is to assess the state of sanitation and food hygiene condition of rural people. It is found that most of the villagers have lack of knowledge about food safety. Open defecation rate is high which lead threat to ensure food security.

Keywords: food safety, challenges, hygiene, Bangladesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 315