Search results for: load and price uncertainties

Authors: Aphinan Phukaoluan, Surachai Dechkunakorn, Niwat Anuwongnukroh, Anak Khantachawana, Pongpan Kaewtathip, Julathep Kajornchaiyakul, Peerapong Tua-Ngam

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Aims: The objectives of this study was to determine the load-deflecting characteristics of a fabricated orthodontic wire with alloy composition of 50.6% (atomic weight) Ni and 49.4% (atomic weight) Ti and to compare the results with Ormco, a commercially available pre-formed NiTi orthodontic archwire. Materials and Methods: The ingots alloys with atomic weight ratio 50.6 Ni: 49.4 Ti alloy were used in this study. Three specimens were cut to have wire dimensions of 0.016 inch x0.022 inch. For comparison, a commercially available pre-formed NiTi archwire, Ormco, with dimensions of 0.016 inch x 0.022 inch was used. Three-point bending tests were performed at the temperature 36+1 °C using a Universal Testing Machine on the newly fabricated and commercial archwires to assess the characteristics of the load-deflection curve with loading and unloading forces. The loading and unloading features at the deflection points 0.25, 0.50, 0.75. 1.0, 1.25, and 1.5 mm were compared. Descriptive statistics was used to evaluate each variables, and independent t-test at p < 0.05 was used to analyze the mean differences between the two groups. Results: The load-deflection curve of the 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wires exhibited the characteristic features of superelasticity. The curves at the loading and unloading slope of Ormco NiTi archwire were more parallel than the newly fabricated NiTi wires. The average deflection force of the 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wire was 304.98 g and 208.08 g for loading and unloading, respectively. Similarly, the values were 358.02 g loading and 253.98 g for unloading of Ormco NiTi archwire. The interval difference forces between each deflection points were in the range 20.40-121.38 g and 36.72-92.82 g for the loading and unloading curve of 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wire, respectively, and 4.08-157.08 g and 14.28-90.78 g for the loading and unloading curve of commercial wire, respectively. The average deflection force of the 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wire was less than that of Ormco NiTi archwire, which could have been due to variations in the wire dimensions. Although a greater force was required for each deflection point of loading and unloading for the 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wire as compared to Ormco NiTi archwire, the values were still within the acceptable limits to be clinically used in orthodontic treatment. Conclusion: The 50.6Ni: 49.4Ti wires presented the characteristics of a superelastic orthodontic wire. The loading and unloading force were also suitable for orthodontic tooth movement. These results serve as a suitable foundation for further studies in the development of new orthodontic NiTi archwires.

Keywords: 50.6 ni 49.4 Ti alloy wire, load deflection curve, loading and unloading force, orthodontic

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Wei Yao, Constantinos Alexiou

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In the existing literature, many studies have focused on the implementation and effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, but only a few have evaluated QE’s effect on commodity prices. In this context, by following Frankel’s (1986) commodity price overshooting model, we study the dynamic covariation between the expected real interest rates and six agricultural commodities’ real returns over the period from 2000:1 to 2018 for the US economy. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the causal relationship and co-movement of time series data by calculating the coefficient of determination in different frequencies. We find that a) US unconventional monetary policy may cause more positive and significant covariation between the expected real interest rates and agricultural commodities’ real returns over the short horizons; b) a lead-lag relationship that runs from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real short-term interest rates over the long horizons; and c) a lead-lag relationship from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real long-term interest rates over short horizons. In the realm of monetary policy, we argue that QE may shift the negative relationship between most commodities’ real returns and the expected real interest rates to a positive one over a short horizon.

Keywords: QE, commodity price, interest rate, wavelet coherence

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Ahmad Zamzam

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With the development of the economy in recent years, Saudi Arabia has been maintaining high economic growth. Therefore, its energy consumption has increased dramatically. This economic growth reflected on the expansion of high-rise tower's construction. Jeddah coastal strip (cornice) has many high-rise buildings planned to start next few years. These projects required a massive amount of electricity that was not planned to be supplied by the old infrastructure. This research studies the effect of the building envelope on its thermal performance. It follows a parametric simulation methodology using Ecotect software to analyze the effect of the building envelope design on its cooling energy load for an office high-rise building in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which includes building geometrical form, massing treatments, orientation and glazing type effect. The research describes an integrated passive design approach to reduce the cooling requirement for high-rise building through an improved building envelope design. The research used Ecotect to make four simulation studies; the first simulation compares the thermal performance of five high-rise buildings, presenting the basic shape of the plan. All the buildings have the same plan area and same floor height. The goal of this simulation is to find out the best shape for the thermal performance. The second simulation studies the effect of orientation on the thermal performance by rotating the same building model to find out the best and the worst angle for the building thermal performance. The third simulation studies the effect of the massing treatment on the total cooling load. It compared five models with different massing treatment, but with the same total built up area. The last simulation studied the effect of the glazing type by comparing the total cooling load of the same building using five different glass type and also studies the feasibility of using these glass types by studying the glass cost effect. The results indicate that using the circle shape as building plan could reduce the thermal cooling load by 40%. Also, using shading devices could reduce the cooling loads by 5%. The study states that using any of the massing grooving, recess or any treatment that could increase the outer exposed surface is not preferred and will decrease the building thermal performance. Also, the result shows that the best direction for glazing and openings from thermal performance viewpoint in Jeddah is the North direction while the worst direction is the East one. The best direction angle for openings - regarding the thermal performance in Jeddah- is 15 deg West and the worst is 250 deg West (110 deg East). Regarding the glass type effect, comparing to the double glass with air fill type as a reference case, the double glass with Air-Low-E will save 14% from the required amount of the thermal cooling load annually. Argon fill and triple glass will save 16% and 17% from the total thermal cooling load respectively, but for the glass cost purpose, using the Argon fill and triple glass is not feasible.

Keywords: passive cooling, reduce thermal load, Jeddah, building shape, energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Shady Adib, Vladimir Vinogradov, Peter Gosling

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Digital Twin (DT) technology is a new technology that appeared in the early 21st century. The DT is defined as the digital representation of living and non-living physical assets. By connecting the physical and virtual assets, data are transmitted smoothly, allowing the virtual asset to fully represent the physical asset. Although there are lots of studies conducted on the DT concept, there is still limited information about the ability of the DT models for monitoring and detecting unexpected changes in structural behaviour in real time. This is due to the large computational efforts required for the analysis and an excessively large amount of data transferred from sensors. This paper aims to develop the DT concept to be able to detect the abnormal changes in structural behaviour in real time using advanced modelling techniques, deep learning algorithms, and data acquisition systems, taking into consideration model uncertainties. finite element (FE) models were first developed offline to be used with a reduced basis (RB) model order reduction technique for the construction of low-dimensional space to speed the analysis during the online stage. The RB model was validated against experimental test results for the establishment of a DT model of a two-dimensional truss. The established DT model and deep learning algorithms were used to identify the location of damage once it has appeared during the online stage. Finally, the RB model was used again to identify the damage severity. It was found that using the RB model, constructed offline, speeds the FE analysis during the online stage. The constructed RB model showed higher accuracy for predicting the damage severity, while deep learning algorithms were found to be useful for estimating the location of damage with small severity.

Keywords: data acquisition system, deep learning, digital twin, model uncertainties, reduced basis, reduced order model

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Polina Prokopovich

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Despite the well-established dependence of cartilage mechanical properties on the frequency of the applied load, most research in the field is carried out in either load-free or constant load conditions because of the complexity of the equipment required for the determination of time-dependent properties. These simpler analyses provide a limited representation of cartilage properties thus greatly reducing the impact of the information gathered hindering the understanding of the mechanisms involved in this tissue replacement, development and pathology. More complex techniques could represent better investigative methods, but their uptake in cartilage research is limited by the highly specialised training required and cost of the equipment. There is, therefore, a clear need for alternative experimental approaches to cartilage testing to be deployed in research and clinical settings using more user-friendly and financial accessible devices. Frequency dependent material properties can be determined through rheometry that is an easy to use requiring a relatively inexpensive device; we present how a commercial rheometer can be adapted to determine the viscoelastic properties of articular cartilage. Frequency-sweep tests were run at various applied normal loads on immature, mature and trypsinased (as model of osteoarthritis) cartilage samples to determine the dynamic shear moduli (G*, G′ G″) of the tissues. Moduli increased with increasing frequency and applied load; mature cartilage had generally the highest moduli and GAG depleted samples the lowest. Hydraulic permeability (KH) was estimated from the rheological data and decreased with applied load; GAG depleted cartilage exhibited higher hydraulic permeability than either immature or mature tissues. The rheometer-based methodology developed was validated by the close comparison of the rheometer-obtained cartilage characteristics (G*, G′, G″, KH) with results obtained with more complex testing techniques available in literature. Rheometry is relatively simpler and does not require highly capital intensive machinery and staff training is more accessible; thus the use of a rheometer would represent a cost-effective approach for the determination of frequency-dependent properties of cartilage for more comprehensive and impactful results for both healthcare professional and R&D.

Keywords: tissue, rheometer, biomaterial, cartilage

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: B. S. Jayashankarbabu, Karisiddappa

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The finite element method is used to obtain the elastic buckling load factor for square isotropic plate containing circular, square and rectangular cutouts. ANSYS commercial finite element software had been used in the study. The applied inplane loads considered are uniaxial and biaxial compressions. In all the cases the load is distributed uniformly along the plate outer edges. The effects of the size and shape of concentric cutouts with different plate thickness ratios and the influence of plate edge condition, such as SSSS, CCCC and mixed boundary condition SCSC on the plate buckling strength have been considered in the analysis.

Keywords: concentric cutout, elastic buckling, finite element method, inplane loads, thickness ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Yo-Seph Byun, Gyu-Phil Lee, Young-Bin Park, Gye-Chun Cho, Seong-Won Lee

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In Korea, a study on Limit State Design (LSD) for underground structures is being conducted in order to perform more effective design. In this study, as a result of MCS (Monte-Carlo Simulation) technique, failure probabilities of the structure during normal and earthquake are estimated in reliability analysis. Target reliability indexes are determined depending on load combinations for underground structure, and then, design variables such as load and material factors in LSD are decided. As a result, through the research in order to determine more reliable design variables, a specification of LSD for underground structures is able to be developed.

Keywords: design variable, limit state design, target reliability index, underground structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Arjun Paul, Adrijit Goswami

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In our present work, an economic order quantity inventory model with shortages is developed where holding cost is expressed as linearly increasing function of time and demand rate is a ramp type function of time. The items considered in the model are deteriorating in nature so that a small fraction of the items is depleted with the passage of time. In order to consider a more realistic situation, the deterioration rate is assumed to follow a continuous uniform distribution with the parameters involved being triangular fuzzy numbers. The inventory manager offers his customer a discount in case he is willing to backorder his demand when there is a stock-out. The optimum ordering policy and the optimum discount offered for each backorder are determined by minimizing the total cost in a replenishment interval. For better illustration of our proposed model in both the crisp and fuzzy sense and for providing richer insights, a numerical example is cited to exemplify the policy and to analyze the sensitivity of the model parameters.

Keywords: fuzzy deterioration rate, price discount on backorder, ramp type demand, shortage, time varying holding cost

Procedia PDF Downloads 173

Authors: W. A. Nalaka Wijesooriya

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The increasing paddy production, stabilization of domestic rice consumption and the increasing dynamism of rice processing and domestic markets call for a rethinking of the general direction of the rice milling industry in Sri Lanka. The main purpose of the study was to explore levels of concentration in rice milling industry in Polonnaruwa and Hambanthota which are the major hubs of the country for rice milling. Concentration indices reveal that the rice milling industry in Polonnaruwa operates weak oligopsony and is highly competitive in Hambanthota. According to the actual quantity of paddy milling per day, 47 % is less than 8Mt/Day, while 34 % is 8-20 Mt/day, and the rest (19%) is greater than 20 Mt/day. In Hambanthota, nearly 50% of the mills belong to the range of 8-20 Mt/day. Lack of experience of the milling industry, poor knowledge on milling technology, lack of capital and finding an output market are the major entry barriers to the industry. Major problems faced by all the rice millers are the lack of a uniform electricity supply and low quality paddy. Many of the millers emphasized that the rice ceiling price is a constraint to produce quality rice. More than 80% of the millers in Polonnaruwa which is the major parboiling rice producing area have mechanical dryers. Nearly 22% millers have modern machineries like color sorters, water jet polishers. Major paddy purchasing method of large scale millers in Polonnaruwa is through brokers. In Hambanthota major channel is miller purchasing from paddy farmers. Millers in both districts have major rice selling markets in Colombo and suburbs. Huge variation can be observed in the amount of pledge (for paddy storage) loans. There is a strong relationship among the storage ability, credit affordability and the scale of operation of rice millers. The inter annual price fluctuation ranged 30%-35%. Analysis of market margins by using series of secondary data shows that farmers’ share on rice consumer price is stable or slightly increases in both districts. In Hambanthota a greater share goes to the farmer. Only four mills which have obtained the Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) certification from Sri Lanka Standards Institution can be found. All those millers are small quantity rice exporters. Priority should be given for the Small and medium scale millers in distribution of storage paddy of PMB during the off season. The industry needs a proper rice grading system, and it is recommended to introduce a ceiling price based on graded rice according to the standards. Both husk and rice bran were underutilized. Encouraging investment for establishing rice oil manufacturing plant in Polonnaruwa area is highly recommended. The current taxation procedure needs to be restructured in order to ensure the sustainability of the industry.

Keywords: conduct, performance, structure (SCP), rice millers

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Seyran Naghdi

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Background: Orphan drug development is limited by very high costs attributed to the research and development and small size market. How health policymakers address this challenge to consider both supply and demand sides need to be explored for directing the policies and plans in the right way. The price is an important signal for pharmaceutical companies’ profitability and the patients’ accessibility as well. Objective: This study aims to find out the orphan drugs' price-setting patterns and approaches in health systems through a systematic review of the available evidence. Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) approach was used. MedLine, Embase, and Web of Sciences were searched via appropriate search strategies. Through Medical Subject Headings (MeSH), the appropriate terms for pricing were 'cost and cost analysis', and it was 'orphan drug production', and 'orphan drug', for orphan drugs. The critical appraisal was performed by the Joanna-Briggs tool. A Cochrane data extraction form was used to obtain the data about the studies' characteristics, results, and conclusions. Results: Totally, 1,197 records were found. It included 640 hits from Embase, 327 from Web of Sciences, and 230 MedLine. After removing the duplicates, 1,056 studies remained. Of them, 924 studies were removed in the primary screening phase. Of them, 26 studies were included for data extraction. The majority of the studies (>75%) are from developed countries, among them, approximately 80% of the studies are from European countries. Approximately 85% of evidence has been produced in the recent decade. Conclusions: There is a huge variation of price-setting among countries, and this is related to the specific pharmacological market structure and the thresholds that governments want to intervene in the process of pricing. On the other hand, there is some evidence on the availability of spaces to reduce the very high costs of orphan drugs development through an early agreement between pharmacological firms and governments. Further studies need to focus on how the governments could incentivize the companies to agree on providing the drugs at lower prices.

Keywords: orphan drugs, orphan drug production, pricing, costs, cost analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: R. M. Shabbir Ahmed, Mohamed Haneef, A. R. Anwar Khan

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Analysis of stresses plays important role in the optimization of structures. Prior stress estimation helps in better design of the products. Composites find wide usage in the industrial and home applications due to its strength to weight ratio. Especially in the air craft industry, the usage of composites is more due to its advantages over the conventional materials. Composites are mainly made of orthotropic materials having unequal strength in the different directions. Composite materials have the drawback of delamination and debonding due to the weaker bond materials compared to the parent materials. So proper analysis should be done to the composite joints before using it in the practical conditions. In the present work, a composite plate with elastic pin is considered for analysis using finite element software Ansys. Basically the geometry is built using Ansys software using top down approach with different Boolean operations. The modelled object is meshed with three dimensional layered element solid46 for composite plate and solid element (Solid45) for pin material. Various combinations are considered to find the strength of the composite joint under uniaxial loading conditions. Due to symmetry of the problem, only quarter geometry is built and results are presented for full model using Ansys expansion options. The results show effect of pin diameter on the joint strength. Here the deflection and load sharing of the pin are increasing and other parameters like overall stress, pin stress and contact pressure are reducing due to lesser load on the plate material. Further material effect shows, higher young modulus material has little deflection, but other parameters are increasing. Interference analysis shows increasing of overall stress, pin stress, contact stress along with pin bearing load. This increase should be understood properly for increasing the load carrying capacity of the joint. Generally every structure is preloaded to increase the compressive stress in the joint to increase the load carrying capacity. But the stress increase should be properly analysed for composite due to its delamination and debonding effects due to failure of the bond materials. When results for an isotropic combination is compared with composite joint, isotropic joint shows uniformity of the results with lesser values for all parameters. This is mainly due to applied layer angle combinations. All the results are represented with necessasary pictorial plots.

Keywords: bearing force, frictional force, finite element analysis, ANSYS

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Authors: Seyedehzahra Mirrahimi

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This paper investigates the effect of variations in window and ceiling heights on cooling inside an architectural training studio with a full-width window. For architectural training, students use the studio more often than they use ordinary classrooms. Therefore, studio dimensions and size, and the window position, directly influence the cooling load. Energy for cooling is one of the most expensive costs in the studio because of the high activity levels of students during the warm season. The methodology of analysis involves measuring energy changes in the Energy Plus software in Kish Island. It was proved that the cooling energy in an architecture studio can be increased by changing window levels and ceiling heights to add a range of cooling energy.

Keywords: cooling energy, Energy Plus, studio classroom, window position

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Tetsuji Tanaka, Jin Guo

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The extant literature has not succeeded in uncovering the common determinants of price volatility transmissions of agricultural commodities from international to local markets, and further, has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed various factors to determine the degree of price volatility transmissions of wheat, rice, and maize between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specifications and panel-feasible generalized least square models. We found that the grain autarky system has the potential to diminish volatility pass-throughs for three grain commodities. Furthermore, it was discovered that the substitutive commodity consumption behavior between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, but rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element, either for the volatilities of wheat or maize. The effectiveness of grain consumption substitution to insulate the pass-throughs from global markets is greater than that of cereal self-sufficiency. These implications are extremely beneficial for developing governments to protect their domestic food markets from uncertainty in foreign countries and as such, improves food security.

Keywords: food security, GARCH, grain self-sufficiency, volatility transmission

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Cristian Păuna

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In the first decades of the 21st century, in the electronic trading environment, algorithmic capital investments became the primary tool to make a profit by speculations in financial markets. A significant number of traders, private or institutional investors are participating in the capital markets every day using automated algorithms. The autonomous trading software is today a considerable part in the business intelligence system of any modern financial activity. The trading decisions and orders are made automatically by computers using different mathematical models. This paper will present one of these models called Price Prediction Line. A mathematical algorithm will be revealed to build a reliable trend line, which is the base for limit conditions and automated investment signals, the core for a computerized investment system. The paper will guide how to apply these tools to generate entry and exit investment signals, limit conditions to build a mathematical filter for the investment opportunities, and the methodology to integrate all of these in automated investment software. The paper will also present trading results obtained for the leading German financial market index with the presented methods to analyze and to compare different automated investment algorithms. It was found that a specific mathematical algorithm can be optimized and integrated into an automated trading system with good and sustained results for the leading German Market. Investment results will be compared in order to qualify the presented model. In conclusion, a 1:6.12 risk was obtained to reward ratio applying the trigonometric method to the DAX Deutscher Aktienindex on 24 months investment. These results are superior to those obtained with other similar models as this paper reveal. The general idea sustained by this paper is that the Price Prediction Line model presented is a reliable capital investment methodology that can be successfully applied to build an automated investment system with excellent results.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, high-frequency trading, DAX Deutscher Aktienindex

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Fuat Korkut, Soner Guler

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The concrete filled steel tube (CFST) columns are commonly used in construction applications such as high-rise buildings and bridges owing to its lots of remarkable benefits. The use of concrete filled steel tube columns provides large areas by reduction in cross-sectional area of columns. The main aim of this study is to examine the axial load capacities of circular high strength concrete filled steel tube columns according to Eurocode 4 (EC4) and Chinese Code (DL/T). The results showed that the predictions of EC4 and Chinese Code DL/T are unsafe for all specimens.

Keywords: concrete-filled steel tube column, axial load capacity, Chinese code, Australian Standard

Procedia PDF Downloads 491

Authors: Batool Ismaeel, Umair Farooq, Saad Mushtaq

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Construction projects in the oil industry can be very complex, having unknown outcomes and uncertainties that cannot be easily predicted. Each project has its unique risks generated by a number of factors which, if not controlled, will impact the successful completion of the project mainly in terms of schedule, cost, quality, and safety. This paper highlights the historic risks associated with projects in the south and east region of Kuwait Oil Company (KOC) collated from the company’s lessons learned database. Starting from Contract Award through to handover of the project to the Asset owner, the gaps in project execution in terms of managing risk will be brought to discussion and where a well-defined systematic approach in project risk management reflecting many claims, change of scope, exceeding budget, delays in engineering phase as well as in the procurement and fabrication of long lead items should be adopted. This study focuses on a proposed feasible approach in risk management for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) level projects including the various stakeholders involved in executing the works from International to local contractors and vendors in KOC. The proposed approach covers the areas categorized into organizational, design, procurement, construction, pre-commissioning, commissioning and project management in which the risks are identified and require management and mitigation. With the effective deployment and implementation of the proposed risk management system and the consideration of it as a vital key in achieving the project’s target, the outcomes will be more predictable in the future, and the risk triggers will be managed and controlled. The correct resources can be allocated on a timely basis for the company for avoiding any unpredictable outcomes during the execution of the project. It is recommended in this paper to apply this risk management approach as an integral part of project management and investigate further in the future, the effectiveness of this proposed system for newly awarded projects and compare the same with those projects of similar budget/complexity that have not applied this approach to risk management.

Keywords: construction, project completion, risk management, uncertainties

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Md.Noman Habib Khan, M. S. Tajul Islam, T. S. Gunawan, M. Hasanuzzaman

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The photovoltaic (PV) panel with no galvanic isolation system is well-known technique in the world which is effective and deliver power with enhanced efficiency. The PV generation presented here is for stand-alone system installed in remote areas when as the resulting power gets connected to electronic load installation instead of being tied to the grid. Though very small, even then transformer-less topology is shown to be with leakage in pico-ampere range. By using PWM technique PWM, leakage current in different situations is shown. The results that are demonstrated in this paper show how the pico-ampere current is reduced to femto-ampere through use of inductors and capacitors of suitable values of inductor and capacitors with the load.

Keywords: photovoltaic (PV) panel, duty cycle, pulse duration modulation (PDM), leakage current

Procedia PDF Downloads 516

Authors: Nasim Fallahi, Erasmo Carrera, Alfonso Pagani

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Variable angle tow describes the fibres which are curvilinearly steered in a composite lamina. Significantly, stiffness tailoring freedom of VAT composite laminate can be enlarged and enabled. Composite structures with curvilinear fibres have been shown to improve the buckling load carrying capability in contrast with the straight laminate composites. However, the optimal design and analysis of VAT are faced with high computational efforts due to the increasing number of variables. In this article, an efficient optimum solution has been used in combination with 1D Carrera’s Unified Formulation (CUF) to investigate the optimum fibre orientation angles for buckling analysis. The particular emphasis is on the LE-based CUF models, which provide a Lagrange Expansions to address a layerwise description of the problem unknowns. The first critical buckling load has been considered under simply supported boundary conditions. Special attention is lead to the sensitivity of buckling load corresponding to the fibre orientation angle in comparison with the results which obtain through the Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimization frame and then Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is applied to investigate the accuracy of the optimized model. As a result, numerical CUF approach with an optimal solution demonstrates the robustness and computational efficiency of proposed optimum methodology.

Keywords: beam structures, layerwise, optimization, variable stiffness

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Orod Zarrinkafsh, Mohsen Ramezan Shirazi

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Construction projects initiate in complicated dynamic environments and, due to the close relationships between project parameters and the unknown outer environment, they are faced with several uncertainties and risks. Success in time, cost and quality in large scale construction projects is uncertain in consequence of technological constraints, large number of stakeholders, too much time required, great capital requirements and poor definition of the extent and scope of the project. Projects that are faced with such environments and uncertainties can be well managed through utilization of the concept of risk management in project’s life cycle. Although the concept of risk is dependent on the opinion and idea of management, it suggests the risks of not achieving the project objectives as well. Furthermore, project’s risk analysis discusses the risks of development of inappropriate reactions. Since evaluation and prioritization of construction projects has been a difficult task, the network structure is considered to be an appropriate approach to analyze complex systems; therefore, we have used this structure for analyzing and modeling the issue. On the other hand, we face inadequacy of data in deterministic circumstances, and additionally the expert’s opinions are usually mathematically vague and are introduced in the form of linguistic variables instead of numerical expression. Owing to the fact that fuzzy logic is used for expressing the vagueness and uncertainty, formulation of expert’s opinion in the form of fuzzy numbers can be an appropriate approach. In other words, the evaluation and prioritization of construction projects on the basis of risk factors in real world is a complicated issue with lots of ambiguous qualitative characteristics. In this study, evaluated and prioritization the risk parameters and factors with fuzzy logy method by combination of three method DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation), ANP (Analytic Network Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order-Preference by Similarity Ideal Solution) on Construction Management.

Keywords: fuzzy logy, risk, prioritization, assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 571

Authors: Ljiljana Seric, Vladimir Divic, Marin Bugaric

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This paper presents methodology for spatial analysis of GIS data that is used for assessing the microlocation risk index from potential damages of high winds. The analysis is performed on freely available GIS data comprising information about wind load, terrain cover and topography of the area. The methodology utilizes the legislation of Eurocode norms for determination of wind load of buildings and constructions. The core of the methodology is adoption of the wind load parameters related to location on geographical spatial grid. Presented work is a part of the Wind Risk Project, supported by the European Commission under the Civil Protection Financial Instrument of the European Union (ECHO). The partners involved in Wind Risk project performed Wind Risk assessment and proposed action plan for three European countries – Slovenia, Croatia and Germany. The proposed method is implemented in GRASS GIS open source GIS software and demonstrated for Case study area of wider area of Split, Croatia. Obtained Wind Risk Index is visualized and correlated with critical infrastructures like buildings, roads and power lines. The results show good correlation between high Wind Risk Index with recent incidents related to wind.

Keywords: Eurocode norms, GIS, spatial analysis, wind distribution, wind risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: S. M. Mahdi Niktabara, K. Seshagiri Raob, Amit Kumar Shrivastavac, Jiří Ščučkaa

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The presence of the discontinuity in the form of joints is one of the most significant factors causing instability in the rock mass. On the other hand, dynamic loads, including earthquake and blasting induce cyclic shear loads along the joints in rock masses; therefore, failure of rock mass exacerbates along the joints due to changing shear resistance. Joints are under constant normal load (CNL) and constant normal stiffness (CNS) conditions. Normal stiffness increases on the joints with increasing depth, and it can affect shear resistance. For correct assessment of joint shear resistance under varying normal stiffness and number of cycles, advanced laboratory shear machine is essential for the shear test. Conventional direct shear equipment has limitations such as boundary conditions, working under monotonic movements only, or cyclic shear loads with constant frequency and amplitude of shear loads. Hence, a large-scale servo-controlled direct shear testing machine was designed and fabricated to perform shear test under the both CNL and CNS conditions with varying normal stiffness at different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads. In this study, laboratory cyclic shear tests were conducted on non-planar joints under varying normal stiffness. In addition, the effects of different frequencies and amplitudes of shear loads were investigated. The test results indicate that shear resistance increases with increasing normal stiffness at the first cycle, but the influence of normal stiffness significantly decreases with an increase in the number of shear cycles. The frequency of shear load influences on shear resistance, i.e. shear resistance increases with increasing frequency. However, at low shear amplitude the number of cycles does not affect shear resistance on the joints, but it decreases with higher amplitude.

Keywords: cyclic shear load, frequency of load, amplitude of displacement, normal stiffness

Procedia PDF Downloads 124

Authors: Yanping He-Ulbricht, Marc Oliver Rieger

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Based on survey data collected from people with Chinese roots living in Germany, this paper examines the impact of assimilation degree and language priming (Chinese or German) on individuals’ perceived fairness of economic and social differences and their attitude towards these. The results show that both the language used and the length of time spent in a foreign culture have a significant impact. Subjects who had spent less than 10 years in Germany demonstrated a higher readiness to accept government intervention in markets with price limits than those who had lived there longer. Subjects who were asked and answered in German perceived the current economic situation as less fair and were also less inclined to accept inequality, even when it leads to a Pareto improvement. While the difference in fairness perception of inequality was a cultural effect, the difference in attitudes towards government intervention was rather a result of learning process. The findings imply that both learning processes of individuals and culture play an important role in perception and preferences regarding social and economic differences.

Keywords: assimilation, bilingualism, cross-cultural comparison, income inequality, language priming, price fairness

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Authors: Chusit Apirumanekul, Chayanis Krittasudthacheewa, Ratchapat Ratanavaraha, Yanyong Inmuong

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Rapid economic development in the Lower Mekong region is leading to changes in water quantity and quality. Changes in land- and forest-use, infrastructure development, increasing urbanization, migration patterns and climate risks are increasing demands for water, within various sectors, placing pressure on scarce water resources. Appropriate policies, strategies, and planning are urgently needed for improved water resource management. Over the last decade, Thailand has experienced more frequent and intense drought situations, affecting the level of water storage in reservoirs along with insufficient water allocation for agriculture during the dry season. The Huay Saibat River Basin, one of the well-known water-scarce areas in the northeastern region of Thailand, is experiencing ongoing water scarcity that affects both farming livelihoods and household consumption. Drought management in Thailand mainly focuses on emergency responses, rather than advance preparation and mitigation for long-term solutions. Despite many efforts from local authorities to mitigate the drought situation, there is yet no long-term comprehensive water management strategy, that integrates climate risks alongside other uncertainties. This paper assesses the application in the Huay Saibat River Basin, of the Robust Decision Support framework, to explore the feasibility of multiple drought management policies; including a shift in cropping season, in crop changes, in infrastructural operations and in the use of groundwater, under a wide range of uncertainties, including climate and land-use change. A series of consultative meetings were organized with relevant agencies and experts at the local level, to understand and explore plausible water resources strategies and identify thresholds to evaluate the performance of those strategies. Three different climate conditions were identified (dry, normal and wet). Other non-climatic factors influencing water allocation were further identified, including changes from sugarcane to rubber, delaying rice planting, increasing natural retention storage and using groundwater to supply demands for household consumption and small-scale gardening. Water allocation and water use in various sectors, such as in agriculture, domestic, industry and the environment, were estimated by utilising the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) system, under various scenarios developed from the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors mentioned earlier. Water coverage (i.e. percentage of water demand being successfully supplied) was defined as a threshold for water resource strategy assessment. Thresholds for different sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) were specified during multi-stakeholder engagements. Plausible water strategies (e.g. increasing natural retention storage, change of crop type and use of groundwater as an alternative source) were evaluated based on specified thresholds in 4 sectors (agriculture, domestic, industry, and environment) under 3 climate conditions. 'Business as usual' was evaluated for comparison. The strategies considered robust, emerge when performance is assessed as successful, under a wide range of uncertainties across the river basin. Without adopting any strategy, the water scarcity situation is likely to escalate in the future. Among the strategies identified, the use of groundwater as an alternative source was considered a potential option in combating water scarcity for the basin. Further studies are needed to explore the feasibility for groundwater use as a potential sustainable source.

Keywords: climate change, robust decision support, scenarios, water resources management

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Authors: Mucip Tapan, Ali Ozvan, Ismail Akkaya

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This study investigated how the concrete confinement strength and axial load carrying capacity of reinforced concrete columns are affected by corrosion damage to the stirrups. A total of small-scale 12 test specimens were cast for evaluating the effect of stirrup corrosion on confinement strength of concrete. The results of this study show that the stirrup corrosion alone dramatically decreases the axial load carrying capacity of corroded reinforced concrete columns. Recommendations were presented for improved inspection practices which will allow estimating concrete confinement strength of corrosion-damaged reinforced concrete bridge columns.

Keywords: bridge, column, concrete, corrosion, inspection, stirrup reinforcement

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Authors: Agatha Padma Laksitaningtyas, Sumiyati Gunawan

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Mataram Irrigation Canal has 31,2 km length, is the main irrigation canal in Special Region Province of Yogyakarta, connecting Progo River on the west side and Opak River on the east side. It has an important role as the main water carrier distribution for various purposes such as agriculture, fishery, and plantation which should be free from sediment material. Bed Load Sediment is the basic sediment that will make the sediment process on the irrigation canal. Sediment process is a simultaneous event that can make deposition sediment at the base of irrigation canal and can make the height of elevation water change, it will affect the availability of water to be used for irrigation functions. To predict the amount of drowning sediments in the irrigation canal using two methods: Meyer-Peter and Muller’s Method which is an energy approach method and Einstein Method which is a probabilistic approach. Speed measurement using floating method and using current meters. The channel geometry is measured directly in the field. The basic sediment of the channel is taken in the field by taking three samples from three different points. The result of the research shows that by using the formula Meyer -Peter Muller get the result of 60,75799 kg/s, whereas with Einsten’s Method get result of 13,06461 kg/s. the results may serve as a reference for dredging the sediments on the channel so as not to disrupt the flow of water in irrigation canal.

Keywords: bed load, sediment, irrigation, Mataram canal

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Authors: Nini Johana Marin Rodriguez

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This paper applies DCC, EWMA and OGARCH models to compare the dynamic correlations between exchange rates, oil prices, exchange rates and stock markets to examine the time-varying conditional correlations to the daily oil prices and index returns in relation to the US dollar/local currency for developed (Canada and Mexico) and emerging Latin American markets (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru). Changes in correlation interactions are indicative of structural changes in market linkages with implications to contagion and interdependence. For each pair of stock price-exchange rate and oil price-US dollar/local currency, empirical evidence confirms of a strengthening negative correlation in the last decade. Methodologies suggest only two events have significatively impact in the countries analyzed: global financial crisis and Europe crisis, both events are associated with shifts of correlations to stronger negative level for most of the pairs analyzed. While, the first event has a shifting effect on mainly emerging members, the latter affects developed members. The identification of these relationships provides benefits in risk diversification and inflation targeting.

Keywords: crude oil, dynamic conditional correlation, exchange rates, interdependence, stock prices

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Authors: Anosh Arshad Sundhu, Francesco Giordano, Giacomo Della Croce, Maurizio Arnone

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Digital Twin (DT) is a technology that generates a virtual representation of a physical system or process, enabling real-time monitoring, analysis, and simulation. DT of an Electrical Distribution System (EDS) can perform online analysis by integrating the static and real-time data in order to show the current grid status and predictions about the future status to the Distribution System Operator (DSO), producers and consumers. DT technology for EDS also offers the opportunity to DSO to test hypothetical scenarios. This paper discusses the development of a DT of an EDS by Smart Grid Controller (SGC) application, which is developed using open-source libraries and languages. The developed application can be integrated with Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System (SCADA) of any EDS for creating the DT. The paper shows the performance of developed tools inside the application, tested on real EDS for grid observability, Smart Recursive Load Flow (SRLF) calculation and state estimation of loads in MV feeders.

Keywords: digital twin, distributed energy resources, remote terminal units, supervisory control and data acquisition system, smart recursive load flow

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Authors: Morgan Johansson, Joosef Leppanen, Mathias Flansbjer, Fabio Lozano, Josef Makdesi

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Concrete is commonly used for protective structures and how impact loading affects different types of concrete structures is an important issue. Often the knowledge gained from static loading is also used in the design of impulse loaded structures. A large plastic deformation capacity is essential to obtain a large energy absorption in an impulse loaded structure. However, the structural response of an impact loaded concrete beam may be very different compared to a statically loaded beam. Consequently, the plastic deformation capacity and failure modes of the concrete structure can be different when subjected to dynamic loads; and hence it is not sure that the observations obtained from static loading are also valid for dynamic loading. The aim of this paper is to investigate the residual plastic deformation capacity in reinforced concrete beams subjected to drop weight impact tests. A test-series consisting of 18 simply supported beams (0.1 x 0.1 x 1.18 m, ρs = 0.7%) with a span length of 1.0 m and subjected to a point load in the beam mid-point, was carried out. 2x6 beams were first subjected to drop weight impact tests, and thereafter statically tested until failure. The drop in weight had a mass of 10 kg and was dropped from 2.5 m or 5.0 m. During the impact tests, a high-speed camera was used with 5 000 fps and for the static tests, a camera was used with 0.5 fps. Digital image correlation (DIC) analyses were conducted and from these the velocities of the beam and the drop weight, as well as the deformations and crack propagation of the beam, were effectively measured. Additionally, for the static tests, the applied load and midspan deformation were measured. The load-deformation relations for the beams subjected to an impact load were compared with 6 reference beams that were subjected to static loading only. The crack pattern obtained were compared using DIC, and it was concluded that the resulting crack formation depended much on the test method used. For the static tests, only bending cracks occurred. For the impact loaded beams, though, distinctive diagonal shear cracks also formed below the zone of impact and less wide shear cracks were observed in the region half-way to the support. Furthermore, due to wave propagation effects, bending cracks developed in the upper part of the beam during initial loading. The results showed that the plastic deformation capacity increased for beams subjected to drop weight impact tests from a high drop height of 5.0 m. For beams subjected to an impact from a low drop height of 2.5 m, though, the plastic deformation capacity was in the same order of magnitude as for the statically loaded reference beams. The beams tested were designed to fail due to bending when subjected to a static load. However, for the impact tested beams, one beam exhibited a shear failure at a significantly reduced load level when it was tested statically; indicating that there might be a risk of reduced residual load capacity for impact loaded structures.

Keywords: digital image correlation (DIC), drop weight impact, experiments, plastic deformation capacity, reinforced concrete

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Maria Amaia Iza Padilla, Ibai Ostolozaga

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The objective of this paper is to analyze how transportation costs between regions within a country can affect not only domestic trade but also the allocation of resources in a given region, aggregate productivity, and relative domestic prices (tradable versus non-tradable). On the one hand, there is a vast literature that analyzes the transportation costs faced by countries when trading with the rest of the world. However, this paper focuses on the effect of transportation costs on domestic trade. Countries differ in their domestic road infrastructure and transport quality. There is also some literature that focuses on the effect of road infrastructure on the price difference between regions but not on relative prices at the aggregate level. On the other hand, this work is also related to the literature on resource misallocation. Finally, the paper is also related to the literature analyzing the effect of trade on the development of the manufacturing sector. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey database, it is observed cross-country differences in the proportion of firms that consider transportation as an obstacle. From the International Comparison Program, we obtain a significant negative correlation between GDP per worker and relative prices (manufacturing sector prices relative to the service sector). Furthermore, there is a significant negative correlation between a country’s transportation quality and the relative price of manufactured goods with respect to the price of services in that country. This is consistent with the empirical evidence of a negative correlation between transportation quality and GDP per worker, on the one hand, and the negative correlation between GDP per worker and domestic relative prices, on the other. It is also shown that in a country, the share of manufacturing firms whose main market is at the local (regional) level is negatively related to the quality of the transportation infrastructure within the country. Similarly, this index is positively related to the share of manufacturing firms whose main market is national or international. The data also shows that those countries with a higher proportion of manufacturing firms operating locally have higher relative prices. With this information in hand, the paper attempts to quantify the effects of the allocation of resources between and within sectors. The higher the trade barriers caused by transportation costs, the less efficient allocation, which causes lower aggregate productivity. Second, it is built a two-sector model where regions within a country trade with each other. On the one hand, it is found that with respect to the manufacturing sector, those countries with less trade between their regions will be characterized by a smaller variety of goods, less productive manufacturing firms on average, and higher relative prices for manufactured goods relative to service sector prices. Thus, the decline in the relative price of manufactured goods in more advanced countries could also be explained by the degree of trade between regions. This trade allows for efficient intra-industry allocation (traders are more productive, and resources are allocated more efficiently)).

Keywords: misallocation, relative prices, TFP, transportation cost

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