Search results for: equivalence analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 27138

Search results for: equivalence analysis

19338 Numerical Simulations of Fire in Typical Air Conditioned Railway Coach

Authors: Manoj Sarda, Abhishek Agarwal, Juhi Kaushik, Vatsal Sanjay, Arup Kumar Das

Abstract:

Railways in India remain primary mode of transport having one of the largest networks in the world and catering to billions of transits yearly. Catastrophic economic damage and loss to life is encountered over the past few decades due to fire to locomotives. Study of fire dynamics and fire propagation plays an important role in evacuation planning and reducing losses. Simulation based study of propagation of fire and soot inside an air conditioned coach of Indian locomotive is done in this paper. Finite difference based solver, Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) version 6 has been used for analysis. A single air conditioned 3 tier coupe closed to ambient surroundings by glass windows having occupancy for 8 people is the basic unit of the domain. A system of three such coupes combined is taken to be fundamental unit for the entire study to resemble effect to an entire coach. Analysis of flame and soot contours and concentrations is done corresponding to variations in heat release rate per unit volume (HRRPUA) of fire source, variations in conditioned air velocity being circulated inside coupes by vents and an alternate fire initiation and propagation mechanism via ducts. Quantitative results of fractional area in top and front view of the three coupes under fire and smoke are obtained using MATLAB (IMT). Present simulations and its findings will be useful for organizations like Commission of Railway Safety and others in designing and implementing safety and evacuation measures.

Keywords: air conditioned coaches, fire propagation, flame contour, soot flow, train fire

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19337 Variability of the Speaker's Verbal and Non-Verbal Behaviour in the Process of Changing Social Roles in the English Marketing Discourse

Authors: Yuliia Skrynnik

Abstract:

This research focuses on the interaction of verbal, non-verbal, and super-verbal communicative components used by the speaker changing social roles in the marketing discourse. The changing/performing of social roles is implemented through communicative strategies and tactics, the structural, semantic, and linguo-pragmatic means of which are characterized by specific features and differ for the performance of either a role of a supplier or a customer. Communication within the marketing discourse is characterized by symmetrical roles’ relation between communicative opponents. The strategy of a supplier’s social role realization and the strategy of a customer’s role realization influence the discursive personality's linguistic repertoire in the marketing discourse. This study takes into account that one person can be both a supplier and a customer under different circumstances, thus, exploring the one individual who can be both a supplier and a customer. Cooperative and non-cooperative tactics are the instruments for the implementation of these strategies. In the marketing discourse, verbal and non-verbal behaviour of the speaker performing a customer’s social role is highly informative for speakers who perform the role of a supplier. The research methods include discourse, context-situational, pragmalinguistic, pragmasemantic analyses, the method of non-verbal components analysis. The methodology of the study includes 5 steps: 1) defining the configurations of speakers’ social roles on the selected material; 2) establishing the type of the discourse (marketing discourse); 3) describing the specific features of a discursive personality as a subject of the communication in the process of social roles realization; 4) selecting the strategies and tactics which direct the interaction in different roles configurations; 5) characterizing the structural, semantic and pragmatic features of the strategies and tactics realization, including the analysis of interaction between verbal and non-verbal components of communication. In the marketing discourse, non-verbal behaviour is usually spontaneous but not purposeful. Thus, the adequate decoding of a partner’s non-verbal behavior provides more opportunities both for the supplier and the customer. Super-verbal characteristics in the marketing discourse are crucial in defining the opponent's social status and social role at the initial stage of interaction. The research provides the scenario of stereotypical situations of the play of a supplier and a customer. The performed analysis has perspectives for further research connected with the study of discursive variativity of speakers' verbal and non-verbal behaviour considering the intercultural factor influencing the process of performing the social roles in the marketing discourse; and the formation of the methods for the scenario construction of non-stereotypical situations of social roles realization/change in the marketing discourse.

Keywords: discursive personality, marketing discourse, non-verbal component of communication, social role, strategy, super-verbal component of communication, tactic, verbal component of communication

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19336 Web-Based Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Decision-Making: A Systematic Analysis

Authors: Serhat Tüzün, Tufan Demirel

Abstract:

Decision Support Systems (DSS) have been investigated by researchers and technologists for more than 35 years. This paper analyses the developments in the architecture and software of these systems, provides a systematic analysis for different Web-based DSS approaches and Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT), with the suggestion for future studies. Decision Support Systems literature begins with building model-oriented DSS in the late 1960s, theory developments in the 1970s, and the implementation of financial planning systems and Group DSS in the early and mid-80s. Then it documents the origins of Executive Information Systems, online analytic processing (OLAP) and Business Intelligence. The implementation of Web-based DSS occurred in the mid-1990s. With the beginning of the new millennia, intelligence is the main focus on DSS studies. Web-based technologies are having a major impact on design, development and implementation processes for all types of DSS. Web technologies are being utilized for the development of DSS tools by leading developers of decision support technologies. Major companies are encouraging its customers to port their DSS applications, such as data mining, customer relationship management (CRM) and OLAP systems, to a web-based environment. Similarly, real-time data fed from manufacturing plants are now helping floor managers make decisions regarding production adjustment to ensure that high-quality products are produced and delivered. Web-based DSS are being employed by organizations as decision aids for employees as well as customers. A common usage of Web-based DSS has been to assist customers configure product and service according to their needs. These systems allow individual customers to design their own products by choosing from a menu of attributes, components, prices and delivery options. The Intelligent Decision-making Technologies (IDT) domain is a fast growing area of research that integrates various aspects of computer science and information systems. This includes intelligent systems, intelligent technology, intelligent agents, artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neural networks, machine learning, knowledge discovery, computational intelligence, data science, big data analytics, inference engines, recommender systems or engines, and a variety of related disciplines. Innovative applications that emerge using IDT often have a significant impact on decision-making processes in government, industry, business, and academia in general. This is particularly pronounced in finance, accounting, healthcare, computer networks, real-time safety monitoring and crisis response systems. Similarly, IDT is commonly used in military decision-making systems, security, marketing, stock market prediction, and robotics. Even though lots of research studies have been conducted on Decision Support Systems, a systematic analysis on the subject is still missing. Because of this necessity, this paper has been prepared to search recent articles about the DSS. The literature has been deeply reviewed and by classifying previous studies according to their preferences, taxonomy for DSS has been prepared. With the aid of the taxonomic review and the recent developments over the subject, this study aims to analyze the future trends in decision support systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, intelligent decision-making, systematic analysis, taxonomic review

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19335 Development of the Religious Out-Group Aggression Scale

Authors: Rylle Evan Gabriel Zamora, Micah Dennise Malia, Abygail Deniese Villabona

Abstract:

When examining studies on aggression, the studies about individual aggression vastly outnumbers those studies on group aggression. Given the nature of aggression to be violent and cyclical, and the amount violent events that have occurred in the near present, the study of group aggression is relevant now more than ever. This discrepancy is parallel with the number of valid and reliable psychological tests that measure group aggression. Throughout history, one of the biggest causes of group based violence and aggression is religion. This is particularly true within the context of the Philippines as there are a large number of religious groups. Thus, this study aimed to develop a standardized test that measures an individual’s tendency to be aggressive to those who are in conflict with his or her religious beliefs. This study employs a test development design that employs a qualitative phase to ensure the validity of the scale. Thus, the study was divided into three phases. First is a pilot test wherein an instrument was designed from existing literature which was then administered to 173 respondents from the four largest religious groups in the Philippines. After extensive factor analysis and reliability testing, new items were then formed from the qualitative data collected from eight participants, consisting of two individuals per religious group. The final testing integrates all statistically significant items from the first phase, and the newly formed items from the second phase, which was then administered to 200 respondents. The results were then tested further for reliability using Cronbach’s alpha and validity through factor analysis. The items that were proven to be significant were then combined to create a final instrument that may be used by future studies.

Keywords: religious aggression, group aggression, test development, psychological assessment, social psychology

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19334 Sustainable Agriculture of Tribal Farmers: An Analysis in Koraput and Malkangiri Districts of Odisha, India

Authors: Amrita Mishra, Tushar Kanti Das

Abstract:

Agriculture is the backbone of the economy of Odisha. Sustainability of agriculture holds the key for the development of Odisha. The Sustainable Development Goals are a framework of 17 goals and 169 targets across social, economical and environmental areas of sustainable development. Among all the seventeen goals the second goal is focusing on the promotion of Sustainable Agriculture. In this research our main aim is also to contribute an understanding of effectiveness of sustainable agriculture as a tool for rural development in the selected tribal district (i.e. Koraput and Malkangiri) of Odisha. These two districts are comes under KBK districts of Odisha which are identified as most backward districts of Odisha. The objectives of our study are to investigate the effect of sustainable agriculture on the lives of tribal farmers, to study whether the farmers are empowered by their participation in sustainable agriculture initiatives to move towards their own vision of development and to study the investment and profit ratio in sustainable agriculture. This research will help in filling the major gaps in sociological studies of sustainable agriculture. This information will helpful for farmers, development organisations, donors and policy makers in formulating the development of effective initiatives and policies to support the development of sustainable agriculture. In this study, we have taken 210 respondents and used various statistical techniques like chi-square test, one-way ANOVA and percentage analysis. This research shows that sustainable agriculture is an effective development strategy that benefits the tribal farmers to move towards their own vision of Good Fortune. The poor farmers who struggle to feed their families and maintain viable livelihoods on shrinking land for them sustainable agriculture are really benefited. The farmers are using homemade pesticides, manure and also getting the seeds from different development organisations and Government. So the investment in Sustainable Agriculture is very less. All farmers said their lives are now better than before. The creation of farmers groups for training and marketing for the produces was shown to be very important for empowerment.

Keywords: sustainable, agriculture, tribal farmers, development, empowerment

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19333 Water Treatment Using Eichhornia crassipes and Avifauna Control in The "La Mansión" Pond

Authors: Milda A. Cruz-Huaranga, Natalí Carbo-Bustinza, Javier Linkolk López-Gonzales, K. Depaz, Gina M. Tito T., Soledad Torres-Calderón

Abstract:

The objective of this study was to improve water quality in the “La Mansión” pond in order to irrigate green spaces on the Peruvian Union University campus (Lima, Peru) using the aquatic species Eichhornia Crassipes. Furthermore, tree trimming and cleaning activities were performed that reduced water pollution caused by organic deposits and feathers from wild birds. The impaired waterbody is located on the campus of the Peruvian Union University, 580 meters above sea level, with a volume of 6,405.336 m3, an area of 3,050.16 m2, 256.81 m perimeter, and 0.12 m3/s input flow. Seven 1.8 m2 floating systems were implemented, with 12 common water hyacinth plants in each system. Before implementing this system, a water quality analysis was performed to analyse the physical-chemical, microbiological, and organoleptic parameters. The pre-analysis revealed the pond’s critical condition, with electrical conductivity: 556 mg/l; phosphate: < 0.5; pH: 7.06; total solids: 412 mg/l; arsenic: <0.01; lead: 0.115; BOD5: 14; COD: 16.94; dissolved oxygen: 13; total coliforms: 24000 MCL/100 ml; and thermo-tolerant coliforms: 11000 MCL/100 ml. After implementing the system, the following results were obtained: EC: 495 mg/l; DO:9.2 mg/l; TS: 235 mg/l; BOD5: 7.7; COD: 8.47; Pb: 0.001 mg/l; TC: 460 MCL/100 ml; FC: 240 MCL/100 ml. Thus, we confirmed that the system is 78.79% efficient regarding the Peruvian ECA (Environmental Quality Standards) established for water according to DS #015-2015-MINAM. Therefore, the water is suitable for plant irrigation. Finally, we concluded that treating wastewater with the species Eichhornia Crassipes is efficient since an improvement was achieved in the impaired waterbody.

Keywords: Eichhornia crassipes, plantlets, cleaning, impaired waterbody, pond

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19332 Query in Grammatical Forms and Corpus Error Analysis

Authors: Katerina Florou

Abstract:

Two decades after coined the term "learner corpora" as collections of texts created by foreign or second language learners across various language contexts, and some years following suggestion to incorporate "focusing on form" within a Task-Based Learning framework, this study aims to explore how learner corpora, whether annotated with errors or not, can facilitate a focus on form in an educational setting. Argues that analyzing linguistic form serves the purpose of enabling students to delve into language and gain an understanding of different facets of the foreign language. This same objective is applicable when analyzing learner corpora marked with errors or in their raw state, but in this scenario, the emphasis lies on identifying incorrect forms. Teachers should aim to address errors or gaps in the students' second language knowledge while they engage in a task. Building on this recommendation, we compared the written output of two student groups: the first group (G1) employed the focusing on form phase by studying a specific aspect of the Italian language, namely the past participle, through examples from native speakers and grammar rules; the second group (G2) focused on form by scrutinizing their own errors and comparing them with analogous examples from a native speaker corpus. In order to test our hypothesis, we created four learner corpora. The initial two were generated during the task phase, with one representing each group of students, while the remaining two were produced as a follow-up activity at the end of the lesson. The results of the first comparison indicated that students' exposure to their own errors can enhance their grasp of a grammatical element. The study is in its second stage and more results are to be announced.

Keywords: Corpus interlanguage analysis, task based learning, Italian language as F1, learner corpora

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19331 Prospects and Challenges of Sports Culture in India: A Case Study of Gujarat

Authors: Jay Raval

Abstract:

Sports and physical fitness have been a vital component of our civilization. It is such a power which, motivates and inspires every individual, communities and even countries to be aware of the physical and mental health. All though, sports play vital role in the overall development of the nation, but in the developing countries such as India, this culture of sports is yet to be motivated. However, in India lack of sporting culture has held back the growth of a similar industry in the past, despite the growing awareness and interest in various different sports besides cricket. Hence, due to a lack of sporting culture, corporate investments in India’s sports have traditionally been limited to only non-profit corporate social responsibility activities and initiatives. From past couple of years, India has come up with new initiatives such as Indian Premier League (Cricket), Hockey India League, Indian Badminton League, Pro Kabaddi League, and Indian Super League (Football) which help to boost Indian sports culture and thereby increase economy of the country. Out of 29 states of India, among all of those competitive states, Gujarat is showing very rapid increase in sports participation. Khel Mahakumbh, the competition conducted for the last six years has been a giant step in this direction and covers rural and urban areas of Gujarat. The objective of the research is to address the overall development of the sports system. Sports system includes infrastructure, coaches, resources, and participants. The current existing system is not disabled friendly. This research paper highlights adequate steps in order to improve and sort out pressing issues in the sports system. Education system is highly academic-centric with a definite trend towards reducing school sports and extra-curricular sports in the Gujarat state. Constituents of this research work make an attempt to evaluate the framework of the Olympic Charter, the Sports Authority of India, the Indian Olympics Association and the National Sports Federations. It explores the areas that need to be revamped, rejuvenated and reoriented to function in an open, democratic, equitable, transparent and accountable manner. Research is based on mixed method approach. It is used for the data collection which includes the personal interviews, document analysis and the use of news article. Quality assurance is also tested by conducting the trustworthiness of the paper. Mixed method helps to strengthen the analysis part and give strong base for the discussion during the analysis.

Keywords: physical development, sports authority of India, sports policy, women empowerment

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19330 Effect of Aquatic and Land Plyometric Training on Selected Physical Fitness Variables in Intercollegiate Male Handball Players

Authors: Nisith K. Datta, Rakesh Bharti

Abstract:

The purpose of the study was to find out the effects of Aquatic and Land plyometric training on selected physical variables in intercollegiate male handball players. To achieve this purpose of the study, forty five handball players of Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, Gujarat were selected as players at random and their age ranged between 18 to 21 years. The selected players were divided into three equal groups of fifteen players each. Group I underwent Aquatic plyometric training, Group II underwent Land plyometric training and Group III Control group for three days per week for twelve weeks. Control Group did not participate in any special training programme apart from their regular activities as per their curriculum. The following physical fitness variables namely speed; leg explosive power and agility were selected as dependent variables. All the players of three groups were tested on selected dependent variables prior to and immediately after the training programme. The analysis of covariance was used to analyze the significant difference, if any among the groups. Since, three groups were compared, whenever the obtained ‘F’ ratio for adjusted post test was found to be significant, the Scheffe’s test to find out the paired mean differences, if any. The 0.05 level of confidence was fixed as the level of significance to test the ‘F’ ratio obtained by the analysis of covariance, which was considered as an appropriate. The result of the study indicates due to Aquatic and Land plyometric training on speed, explosive power, and agility has been improved significantly.

Keywords: aquatic training, explosive power, plyometric training, speed

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19329 Effectiveness of Acceptance and Commitment Therapy on Reducing Corona Disease Anxiety in the Staff Working in Shahid Beheshti Hospital of Shiraz

Authors: Gholam Reza Mirzaei

Abstract:

This research aimed to investigate the effectiveness of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) in reducing corona disease anxiety in the staff working at Shahid Beheshti Hospital of Shiraz. The current research was a quasi-experimental study having pre-test and post-test with two experimental and control groups. The statistical population of the research included all the staff of Shahid Beheshti Hospital of Shiraz in 2021. From among the statistical population, 30 participants (N =15 in the experimental group and N =15 in the control group) were selected by available sampling. The materials used in the study comprised the Cognitive Emotion Regulation Questionnaire (CERQ) and Corona Disease Anxiety Scale (CDAS). Following data collection, the participants’ scores were analyzed using SPSS 20 at both descriptive (mean and standard deviation) and inferential (analysis of covariance) levels. The results of the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) showed that acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) is effective in reducing Corona disease anxiety (mental and physical symptoms) in the staff working at Shahid Beheshti Hospital of Shiraz. The effectiveness of acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) on reducing mental symptoms was 25.5% and on physical symptoms was 13.8%. The mean scores of the experimental group in the sub-scales of Corona disease anxiety (mental and physical symptoms) in the post-test were lower than the mean scores of the control group.

Keywords: acceptance and commitment therapy, corona disease anxiety, hospital staff, Shiraz

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19328 Assessing the Effect of the Position of the Cavities on the Inner Plate of the Steel Shear Wall under Time History Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Masoud Mahdavi, Mojtaba Farzaneh Moghadam

Abstract:

The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the RCS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between RCS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and RCS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.

Keywords: hollow steel plate shear wall, time history analysis, finite element method, abaqus software

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19327 The Moment of Departure: Redefining Self and Space in Literacy Activism

Authors: Sofie Dewayani, Pratiwi Retnaningdyah

Abstract:

Literacy practice is situated within the identity enactment in a particular time and space. The literacy practices in public places, ranging from city parks, urban slums to city roads are meeting places of discursive practices produced by dynamic interactions, and sometimes contestations, of social powers and capitals. The present paper examines the ways the literacy activists construct their sense of space in attempts to develop possibilities for literacy programs as they are sent to work with marginalized communities far away from their hometowns in Indonesia. In particular, this paper analyzes the activists’ reflections of identity enactment - othering, familiarity, and sense of comfort - as they are trying to make meaning of the communities’ literacy capitals and practices in the process of adapting with the communities. Data collected for this paper were travel diaries - serving as literacy narratives - obtained from a literacy residency program sponsored by the Indonesian Ministry of Education and Culture. The residency program itself involved 30 youths (18 to 30 years old) to work with marginalized communities in literacy activism programs. This paper analyzes the written narratives of four focal participants using Bakhtin’s chronotopes - the configurations of time and space - that figure into the youth’s meaning-making of literacy as well as their exercise of power and identity. Follow-up interviews were added to enrich the analysis. The analysis considers the youth’s ‘moment of departure’ a critical point in their reconstructions of self and space. This paper expands the discussions of literacy discourse and spatiality while lending its supports to literacy activism in highly diverse multicultural settings.

Keywords: chronotopes, discourse, identity, literacy activism

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19326 A U-Net Based Architecture for Fast and Accurate Diagram Extraction

Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Saurabh Yadav, Nikita Katyal

Abstract:

In the context of educational data mining, the use case of extracting information from images containing both text and diagrams is of high importance. Hence, document analysis requires the extraction of diagrams from such images and processes the text and diagrams separately. To the author’s best knowledge, none among plenty of approaches for extracting tables, figures, etc., suffice the need for real-time processing with high accuracy as needed in multiple applications. In the education domain, diagrams can be of varied characteristics viz. line-based i.e. geometric diagrams, chemical bonds, mathematical formulas, etc. There are two broad categories of approaches that try to solve similar problems viz. traditional computer vision based approaches and deep learning approaches. The traditional computer vision based approaches mainly leverage connected components and distance transform based processing and hence perform well in very limited scenarios. The existing deep learning approaches either leverage YOLO or faster-RCNN architectures. These approaches suffer from a performance-accuracy tradeoff. This paper proposes a U-Net based architecture that formulates the diagram extraction as a segmentation problem. The proposed method provides similar accuracy with a much faster extraction time as compared to the mentioned state-of-the-art approaches. Further, the segmentation mask in this approach allows the extraction of diagrams of irregular shapes.

Keywords: computer vision, deep-learning, educational data mining, faster-RCNN, figure extraction, image segmentation, real-time document analysis, text extraction, U-Net, YOLO

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19325 Spatial Comparative Analysis on Travels of Mackay in Taiwan

Authors: Shao-Chi Chien, Ying-Ju Chen, Chiao-Yu Tseng, Wan-Ting Lee, Yi-Wen Cheng

Abstract:

Dr. George Leslie Mackay arrived at Takoukang (now Port of Kaohsiung) in Taiwan on December 30, 1871. When Dr. Mackay dedicated at Taiwan for 30 years, he has been an important factor in such areas as preaching, medical and engaged in education. Many researchers have thoroughly studied Dr. Mackay's travels to understand his impact on the state of education, medicine and religion in Taiwan. In the 30-year period of hard work, Dr. Mackay's made outstanding influence on the church in Taiwan. Therefore, the present study will be the mission of the establishment of hospitals, schools, churches which preaching, education, and medicine whether there are related the number of comparisons to explore. According to The Diaries of George Leslie Mackay, our research uses the Geographic Information System (GIS) to map the location of Dr. Mackay's travel in Taiwan and compares it with today's local churches, hospitals, and schools whether there are related the number of comparisons to explore. Therefore, our research focuses on the whole of Taiwan, divided into missionary, medical and education as the main content of the three major parts. Additionally, use of point layer, the surface layer of the property table to establish, in-depth mission of Dr. Mackay's development in Taiwan and Today's comparison. The results will be based on the classification of three different colors pictures that the distance of Mackay's contribution of preaching, medicine, and education. Our research will be compared with the current churches, hospitals, schools and the past churches, hospitals, schools. The results of the present study will provide a reference for future research.

Keywords: George Leslie Mackay, geographic information system, spatial distribution, color categories analysis

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19324 Cigarette Smoking and Alcohol Use among Mauritian Adolescents: Analysis of 2017 WHO Global School-Based Student Health Survey

Authors: Iyanujesu Adereti, Tajudeen Basiru, Ayodamola Olanipekun

Abstract:

Background: Substance abuse among adolescents is of public health concern globally. Despite being the most abused by adolescents, there are limited studies on the prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking among adolescents in Mauritius. Objectives: To determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking, alcohol use and associated correlates among school-going adolescents in Mauritius. Methodology: Data obtained from 2017 WHO Global School-based Student Health Survey (GSHS) survey of 3,012 school-going adolescents in Mauritius was analyzed using STATA. Descriptive statistics were used to obtain prevalence. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate predictors of cigarette smoking and alcohol use. Results: Prevalence of alcohol consumption and cigarette smoking were 26.0% and 17.1%, respectively. Smoking and alcohol use was more prevalent among males, younger adolescents, and those in higher school grades (p-value <.000). In multivariable logistic regression, male gender was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) [95%Confidence Interval (CI)]= 1.51[1.06-2.14]) but lower risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.53-0.90]) while older age (mid and late adolescence) and parental smoking were found to be associated with increased risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 1.94[1.34-2.99] and 1.36[1.05-1.78] respectively). Marijuana use, truancy, being in a fight and suicide ideation were associated with increased odds of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 3.82[3.39-6.09]; 2.15[1.62-2.87]; 1.83[1.34-2.49] and 1.93[1.38-2.69] respectively) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 17.28[10.4 - 28.51]; 1.73[1.21-2. 49]; 1.67[1.14-2.45] and 2.17[1.43-3.28] respectively) while involvement in sexual activity was associated with reduced risk of alcohol use (aOR[95%CI]= 0.50[0.37-0.68]) and cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.47[0.33-0.69]). Parental support and parental monitoring were uniquely associated with lower risk of cigarette smoking (aOR[95%CI]= 0.69[0.47-0.99] and 0.62[0.43-0.91] respectively). Conclusion: The high prevalence of alcohol use and cigarette smoking in this study shows the need for the government of Mauritius to enhance policies that will help address this issue putting into accounts the various risk and protective factors.

Keywords: adolescent health, alcohol use, cigarette smoking, global school-based student health survey

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19323 Designing Presentational Writing Assessments for the Advanced Placement World Language and Culture Exams

Authors: Mette Pedersen

Abstract:

This paper outlines the criteria that assessment specialists use when they design the 'Persuasive Essay' task for the four Advanced Placement World Language and Culture Exams (AP French, German, Italian, and Spanish). The 'Persuasive Essay' is a free-response, source-based, standardized measure of presentational writing. Each 'Persuasive Essay' item consists of three sources (an article, a chart, and an audio) and a prompt, which is a statement of the topic phrased as an interrogative sentence. Due to its richness of source materials and due to the amount of time that test takers are given to prepare for and write their responses (a total of 55 minutes), the 'Persuasive Essay' is the free-response task on the AP World Language and Culture Exams that goes to the greatest lengths to unleash the test takers' proficiency potential. The author focuses on the work that goes into designing the 'Persuasive Essay' task, outlining best practices for the selection of topics and sources, the interplay that needs to be present among the sources and the thinking behind the articulation of prompts for the 'Persuasive Essay' task. Using released 'Persuasive Essay' items from the AP World Language and Culture Exams and accompanying data on test taker performance, the author shows how different passages, and features of passages, have succeeded (and sometimes not succeeded) in eliciting writing proficiency among test takers over time. Data from approximately 215.000 test takers per year from 2014 to 2017 and approximately 35.000 test takers per year from 2012 to 2013 form the basis of this analysis. The conclusion of the study is that test taker performance improves significantly when the sources that test takers are presented with express directly opposing viewpoints. Test taker performance also improves when the interrogative prompt that the test takers respond to is phrased as a yes/no question. Finally, an analysis of linguistic difficulty and complexity levels of the printed sources reveals that test taker performance does not decrease when the complexity level of the article of the 'Persuasive Essay' increases. This last text complexity analysis is performed with the help of the 'ETS TextEvaluator' tool and the 'Complexity Scale for Information Texts (Scale)', two tools, which, in combination, provide a rubric and a fully-automated technology for evaluating nonfiction and informational texts in English translation.

Keywords: advanced placement world language and culture exams, designing presentational writing assessments, large-scale standardized assessments of written language proficiency, source-based language testing

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19322 PARP1 Links Transcription of a Subset of RBL2-Dependent Genes with Cell Cycle Progression

Authors: Ewelina Wisnik, Zsolt Regdon, Kinga Chmielewska, Laszlo Virag, Agnieszka Robaszkiewicz

Abstract:

Apart from protecting genome, PARP1 has been documented to regulate many intracellular processes inter alia gene transcription by physically interacting with chromatin bound proteins and by their ADP-ribosylation. Our recent findings indicate that expression of PARP1 decreases during the differentiation of human CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells to monocytes as a consequence of differentiation-associated cell growth arrest and formation of E2F4-RBL2-HDAC1-SWI/SNF repressive complex at the promoter of this gene. Since the RBL2 complexes repress genes in a E2F-dependent manner and are widespread in the genome in G0 arrested cells, we asked (a) if RBL2 directly contributes to defining monocyte phenotype and function by targeting gene promoters and (b) if RBL2 controls gene transcription indirectly by repressing PARP1. For identification of genes controlled by RBL2 and/or PARP1,we used primer libraries for surface receptors and TLR signaling mediators, genes were silenced by siRNA or shRNA, analysis of gene promoter occupation by selected proteins was carried out by ChIP-qPCR, while statistical analysis in GraphPad Prism 5 and STATISTICA, ChIP-Seq data were analysed in Galaxy 2.5.0.0. On the list of 28 genes regulated by RBL2, we identified only four solely repressed by RBL2-E2F4-HDAC1-BRM complex. Surprisingly, 24 out of 28 emerged genes controlled by RBL2 were co-regulated by PARP1 in six different manners. In one mode of RBL2/PARP1 co-operation, represented by MAP2K6 and MAPK3, PARP1 was found to associate with gene promoters upon RBL2 silencing, which was previously shown to restore PARP1 expression in monocytes. PARP1 effect on gene transcription was observed only in the presence of active EP300, which acetylated gene promoters and activated transcription. Further analysis revealed that PARP1 binding to MA2K6 and MAPK3 promoters enabled recruitment of EP300 in monocytes, while in proliferating cancer cell lines, which actively transcribe PARP1, this protein maintained EP300 at the promoters of MA2K6 and MAPK3. Genome-wide analysis revealed a similar distribution of PARP1 and EP300 around transcription start sites and the co-occupancy of some gene promoters by PARP1 and EP300 in cancer cells. Here, we described a new RBL2/PARP1/EP300 axis which controls gene transcription regardless of the cell type. In this model cell, cycle-dependent transcription of PARP1 regulates expression of some genes repressed by RBL2 upon cell cycle limitation. Thus, RBL2 may indirectly regulate transcription of some genes by controlling the expression of EP300-recruiting PARP1. Acknowledgement: This work was financed by Polish National Science Centre grants nr DEC-2013/11/D/NZ2/00033 and DEC-2015/19/N/NZ2/01735. L.V. is funded by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office grants GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00020 TUMORDNS, GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00048-STAYALIVE and OTKA K112336. AR is supported by Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education 776/STYP/11/2016.

Keywords: retinoblastoma transcriptional co-repressor like 2 (RBL2), poly(ADP-ribose) polymerase 1 (PARP1), E1A binding protein p300 (EP300), monocytes

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19321 Role and Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Sales and Distribution Management

Authors: Kiran Nair, Jincy George, Suhaib Anagreh

Abstract:

Artificial intelligence (AI) in a marketing context is a form of a deterministic tool designed to optimize and enhance marketing tasks, research tools, and techniques. It is on the verge of transforming marketing roles and revolutionize the entire industry. This paper aims to explore the current dissemination of the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the marketing mix, reviewing the scope and application of AI in various aspects of sales and distribution management. The paper also aims at identifying the areas of the strong impact of AI in factors of sales and distribution management such as distribution channel, purchase automation, customer service, merchandising automation, and shopping experiences. This is a qualitative research paper that aims to examine the impact of AI on sales and distribution management of 30 multinational brands in six different industries, namely: airline; automobile; banking and insurance; education; information technology; retail and telecom. Primary data is collected by means of interviews and questionnaires from a sample of 100 marketing managers that have been selected using convenient sampling method. The data is then analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The study reveals that AI applications are extensively used in sales and distribution management, with a strong impact on various factors such as identifying new distribution channels, automation in merchandising, customer service, and purchase automation as well as sales processes. International brands have already integrated AI extensively in their day-to-day operations for better efficiency and improved market share while others are investing heavily in new AI applications for gaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, sales and distribution, marketing mix, distribution channel, customer service

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19320 Dipole and Quadrupole Scattering of Ultra Short Pulses on Metal Nanospheres

Authors: Sergey Svita, Valeriy Astapenko

Abstract:

The presentation is devoted to the theoretical analysis of ultrashort electromagnetic pulses (USP) scattering on metallic nanospheres in a dielectric medium in the vicinity of surface plasmon resonance due to excitation of dipole and quadrupole surface plasmons.

Keywords: surface plasmon, scattering, metallic nanosphere

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19319 An Initial Evaluation of Newly Proposed Biomarker of Zinc Status in Humans: The Erythrocyte Linoleic Acid: Dihomo-γ-Linolenic Acid (LA:DGLA) Ratio

Authors: Marija Knez, James C.R. Stangoulis, Manja Zec, Zoran Pavlovic, Jasmina D. Martacic, Mirjana Gurinovic, Maria Glibetic

Abstract:

Background: Zinc is an essential micronutrient for humans with important physiological functions. A sensitive and specific biomarker for assessing Zn status is still needed. Objective: The major aim of this study was to examine if the changes in the content of plasma phospholipid LA, DGLA and LA: DGLA ratio can be used to efficiently predict the dietary Zn intake and plasma Zn status of humans. Methods: The study was performed on apparently healthy human volunteers. The dietary Zn intake was assessed using 24h recall questionnaires. Plasma phospholipid fatty acid analysis was done by gas chromatography and plasma analysis of minerals by atomic absorption spectrometry. Biochemical, anthropometrical and hematological parameters were assessed. Results: No significant relationship was found between the dietary and plasma zinc status (r=0.07; p=0.6). There is a statistically significant correlation between DGLA and plasma Zn (r=0.39, p=0.00). No relationship was observed between the linoleic acid and plasma Zn, while there was a significant negative correlation between LA: DGLA ratio and plasma Zn status (r=-0.35, p=0.01). Similarly, there were statistically significant difference in DGLA status (p=0.004) and LA: DGLA ratio (p=0.042) between the Zn formed groups. Conclusions: This study is an initial step in evaluating LA: DGLA ratio as a biomarker of Zn status in humans. The results are encouraging as they show that concentration of DGLA is decreased and LA: DGLA ratio increased in people with lower dietary Zn intake. However, additional studies are needed to fully examine the sensitivity of this biomarker.

Keywords: dietary Zn intake Zinc, fatty acid composition, LA: DGLA, healthy population, plasma Zn status, Zn biomarker

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19318 Varieties of Capitalism and Small Business CSR: A Comparative Overview

Authors: Stéphanie Looser, Walter Wehrmeyer

Abstract:

Given the limited research on Small and Mediumsized Enterprises’ (SMEs) contribution to Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and even scarcer research on Swiss SMEs, this paper helps to fill these gaps by enabling the identification of supranational SME parameters and to make a contribution to the evolving field of these topics. Thus, the paper investigates the current state of SME practices in Switzerland and across 15 other countries. Combining the degree to which SMEs demonstrate an explicit (or business case) approach or see CSR as an implicit moral activity with the assessment of their attributes for “variety of capitalism” defines the framework of this comparative analysis. According to previous studies, liberal market economies, e.g. in the United States (US) or United Kingdom (UK), are aligned with extrinsic CSR, while coordinated market systems (in Central European or Asian countries) evolve implicit CSR agendas. To outline Swiss small business CSR patterns in particular, 40 SME owner-managers were interviewed. The transcribed interviews were coded utilising MAXQDA for qualitative content analysis. A secondary data analysis of results from different countries (i.e., Australia, Austria, Chile, Cameroon, Catalonia (notably a part of Spain that seeks autonomy), China, Finland, Germany, Hong Kong (a special administrative region of China), Italy, Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Taiwan, UK, US) lays groundwork for this comparative study on small business CSR. Applying the same coding categories (in MAXQDA) for the interview analysis as well as for the secondary data research while following grounded theory rules to refine and keep track of ideas generated testable hypotheses and comparative power on implicit (and the lower likelihood of explicit) CSR in SMEs retrospectively. The paper identifies Swiss small business CSR as deep, profound, “soul”, and an implicit part of the day-to-day business. Similar to most Central European, Mediterranean, Nordic, and Asian countries, explicit CSR is still very rare in Swiss SMEs. Astonishingly, also UK and US SMEs follow this pattern in spite of their strong and distinct liberal market economies. Though other findings show that nationality matters this research concludes that SME culture and its informal CSR agenda are strongly formative and superseding even forces of market economies, nationally cultural patterns, and language. In a world of “big business”, explicit “business case” CSR, and the mantra that “CSR must pay”, this study points to a distinctly implicit small business CSR model built on trust, physical closeness, and virtues that is largely detached from the bottom line. This pattern holds for different cultural contexts and it is concluded that SME culture is stronger than nationality leading to a supra-national, monolithic SME CSR approach. Hence, classifications of countries by their market system or capitalism, as found in the comparative capitalism literature, do not match the CSR practices in SMEs as they do not mirror the peculiarities of their business. This raises questions on the universality and generalisability of management concepts.

Keywords: CSR, comparative study, cultures of capitalism, small, medium-sized enterprises

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19317 3D Geomechanical Model the Best Solution of the 21st Century for Perforation's Problems

Authors: Luis Guiliana, Andrea Osorio

Abstract:

The lack of comprehension of the reservoir geomechanics conditions may cause operational problems that cost to the industry billions of dollars per year. The drilling operations at the Ceuta Field, Area 2 South, Maracaibo Lake, have been very expensive due to problems associated with drilling. The principal objective of this investigation is to develop a 3D geomechanical model in this area, in order to optimize the future drillings in the field. For this purpose, a 1D geomechanical model was built at first instance, following the workflow of the MEM (Mechanical Earth Model), this consists of the following steps: 1) Data auditing, 2) Analysis of drilling events and structural model, 3) Mechanical stratigraphy, 4) Overburden stress, 5) Pore pressure, 6) Rock mechanical properties, 7) Horizontal stresses, 8) Direction of the horizontal stresses, 9) Wellbore stability. The 3D MEM was developed through the geostatistic model of the Eocene C-SUP VLG-3676 reservoir and the 1D MEM. With this data the geomechanical grid was embedded. The analysis of the results threw, that the problems occurred in the wells that were examined were mainly due to wellbore stability issues. It was determined that the stress field change as the stratigraphic column deepens, it is normal to strike-slip at the Middle Miocene and Lower Miocene, and strike-slipe to reverse at the Eocene. In agreement to this, at the level of the Eocene, the most advantageous direction to drill is parallel to the maximum horizontal stress (157º). The 3D MEM allowed having a tridimensional visualization of the rock mechanical properties, stresses and operational windows (mud weight and pressures) variations. This will facilitate the optimization of the future drillings in the area, including those zones without any geomechanics information.

Keywords: geomechanics, MEM, drilling, stress

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19316 Leaf Image Processing: Review

Authors: T. Vijayashree, A. Gopal

Abstract:

The aim of the work is to classify and authenticate medicinal plant materials and herbs widely used for Indian herbal medicinal preparation. The quality and authenticity of these raw materials are to be ensured for the preparation of herbal medicines. These raw materials are to be carefully screened, analyzed and documented due to mistaken of look-alike materials which do not have medicinal characteristics.

Keywords: authenticity, standardization, principal component analysis, imaging processing, signal processing

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19315 Applying Failure Modes and Effect Analysis Concept in a Global Software Development Process

Authors: Camilo Souza, Lidia Melo, Fernanda Terra, Francisco Caio, Marcelo Reis

Abstract:

SIDIA is a research and development (R&D) institute that belongs to Samsung’s global software development process. The SIDIA’s Model Team (MT) is a part of Samsung’s Mobile Division Area, which is responsible for the development of Android releases embedded in Samsung mobile devices. Basically, in this software development process, the kickoff occurs in some strategic countries (e.g., South Korea) where some software requirements are applied and the initial software tests are performed. When the software achieves a more mature level, a new branch is derived, and the development continues in subsidiaries from other strategic countries (e.g., SIDIA-Brazil). However, even in the newly created branches, there are several interactions between developers from different nationalities in order to fix bugs reported during test activities, apply some specific requirements from partners and develop new features as well. Despite the GSD strategy contributes to improving software development, some challenges are also introduced as well. In this paper, we share the initial results about the application of the failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) concept in the software development process followed by the SIDIA’s model team. The main goal was to identify and mitigate the process potential failures through the application of recommended actions. The initial results show that the application of the FMEA concept allows us to identify the potential failures in our GSD process as well as to propose corrective actions to mitigate them. Finally, FMEA encouraged members of different teams to take actions that contribute to improving our GSD process.

Keywords: global software development, potential failures, FMEA, recommended actions

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19314 Neuroimaging Markers for Screening Former NFL Players at Risk for Developing Alzheimer's Disease / Dementia Later in Life

Authors: Vijaykumar M. Baragi, Ramtilak Gattu, Gabriela Trifan, John L. Woodard, K. Meyers, Tim S. Halstead, Eric Hipple, Ewart Mark Haacke, Randall R. Benson

Abstract:

NFL players, by virtue of their exposure to repetitive head injury, are at least twice as likely to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) and dementia as the general population. Early recognition and intervention prior to onset of clinical symptoms could potentially avert/delay the long-term consequences of these diseases. Since AD is thought to have a long preclinical incubation period, the aim of the current research was to determine whether former NFL players, referred to a depression center, showed evidence of incipient dementia in their structural imaging prior to diagnosis of dementia. Thus, to identify neuroimaging markers of AD, against which former NFL players would be compared, we conducted a comprehensive volumetric analysis using a cohort of early stage AD patients (ADNI) to produce a set of brain regions demonstrating sensitivity to early AD pathology (i.e., the “AD fingerprint”). A cohort of 46 former NFL players’ brain MRIs were then interrogated using the AD fingerprint. Brain scans were done using a T1-weighted MPRAGE sequence. The Free Surfer image analysis suite (version 6.0) was used to obtain the volumetric and cortical thickness data. A total of 55 brain regions demonstrated significant atrophy or ex vacuo dilatation bilaterally in AD patients vs. healthy controls. Of the 46 former NFL players, 19 (41%) demonstrated a greater than expected number of atrophied/dilated AD regions when compared with age-matched controls, presumably reflecting AD pathology.

Keywords: alzheimers, neuroimaging biomarkers, traumatic brain injury, free surfer, ADNI

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19313 Communication in Inclusive Education: A Qualitative Study in Poland

Authors: Klara Królewiak-Detsi, Anna Orylska, Anna Gorgolewska, Marta Boczkowska, Agata Graczykowska

Abstract:

This study investigates the communication between students and teachers in inclusive education in Poland. Specifically, we examine the communication and interaction of students with special educational needs during online learning compared to traditional face-to-face instruction. Our research questions are (1) how children with special educational needs communicate with their teachers and peers during online learning, and (2) what strategies can improve their communication skills. We conducted five focus groups with: (1) 55 children with special educational needs, (2) 65 typically developing pupils, (3) 28 professionals (psychologists and special education therapists), (4) 16 teachers, and (5) 16 parents of children with special educational needs. Our analysis focused on primary schools and used thematic analysis according to the 6-step procedure of Braun and Clarke. Our findings reveal that children with disabilities faced more difficulties communicating and interacting with others online than in face-to-face lessons. The online tools used for education were not adapted to the needs of children with disabilities, and schools lacked clear guidelines on how to pursue inclusive education online. Based on the results, we offer recommendations for online communication training and tools that are dedicated to children with special educational needs. Additionally, our results demonstrate that typically developing pupils are better in interpersonal relations and more often and effectively use social support. Children with special educational needs had similar emotional and communication challenges compared to their typically developing peers. In conclusion, our study highlights the importance of providing adequate support for the online education of children with special educational needs in inclusive classrooms.

Keywords: Inclusive education, Special educational needs, Social skills development, Online communication

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19312 The Influences of Facies and Fine Kaolinite Formation Migration on Sandstones’ Reservoir Quality, Sarir Formation, Sirt Basin Libya

Authors: Faraj M. Elkhatri, Hana Ali Alafi

Abstract:

The spatial and temporal distribution of diagenetic alterations related impact on the reservoir quality of the Sarir Formation. (present-day burial depth of about 9000 feet) Depositional facies and diagenetic alterations are the main controls on reservoir quality of Sarir Formation Sirt Basin Libya; these based on lithology and grain size as well as authigenic clay mineral types and their distributions. However, petrology investigation obtained on study area with five sandstone wells concentrated on main rock components and the parameters that may have impacts on reservoirs. the main authigenic clay minerals are kaolinite and dickite, these investigations have confirmed by X.R.D analysis and clay fraction. mainly Kaolinite and Dickite were extensively presented on all of wells with high amounts. As well as trace of detrital smectite and less amounts of illitized mud-matrix are possibly found by SEM image. Thin layers of clay presented as clay-grain coatings in local depth interpreted as remains of dissolved clay matrix is partly transformed into kaolinite adjacent and towards pore throat. This also may have impacts on most of the pore throats of this sandstone which are open and relatively clean with some of fine martial have been formed on occluded pores. This material is identified by EDS analysis to be collections of not only kaolinite booklets but also small disaggregated kaolinite platelets derived from the disaggregation of larger kaolinite booklets. These patches of kaolinite not only fill this pore, but also coat some of the surrounding framework grains. Quartz grains often enlarged by authigenic quartz overgrowths partially occlude and reduce porosity. Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (SEM) was conducted on the post-test samples to examine any mud filtrate particles that may be in the pore throats. Semi-qualitative elemental data on selected minerals observed during the SEM study were obtained through the use of an Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) unit. The samples showed mostly clean open pore throats, with limited occlusion by kaolinite. very fine-grained elemental combinations (Si/Al/Na/Cl, Si/Al Ca/Cl/Ti, and Qtz/Ti) have been identified and conformed by EDS analysis. However, the identification of the fine grained disaggregated material as mainly kaolinite though study area.

Keywords: fine migration, formation damage, kaolinite, soled bulging.

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19311 Inversion of the Spectral Analysis of Surface Waves Dispersion Curves through the Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Authors: A. Cerrato Casado, C. Guigou, P. Jean

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In this investigation, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to perform the inversion of the dispersion curves in the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) method. This inverse problem usually presents complicated solution spaces with many local minima that make difficult the convergence to the correct solution. PSO is a metaheuristic method that was originally designed to simulate social behavior but has demonstrated powerful capabilities to solve inverse problems with complex space solution and a high number of variables. The dispersion curve of the synthetic soils is constructed by the vertical flexibility coefficient method, which is especially convenient for soils where the stiffness does not increase gradually with depth. The reason is that these types of soil profiles are not normally dispersive since the dominant mode of Rayleigh waves is usually not coincident with the fundamental mode. Multiple synthetic soil profiles have been tested to show the characteristics of the convergence process and assess the accuracy of the final soil profile. In addition, the inversion procedure is applied to multiple real soils and the final profile compared with the available information. The combination of the vertical flexibility coefficient method to obtain the dispersion curve and the PSO algorithm to carry out the inversion process proves to be a robust procedure that is able to provide good solutions for complex soil profiles even with scarce prior information.

Keywords: dispersion, inverse problem, particle swarm optimization, SASW, soil profile

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19310 Predicting the Human Impact of Natural Onset Disasters Using Pattern Recognition Techniques and Rule Based Clustering

Authors: Sara Hasani

Abstract:

This research focuses on natural sudden onset disasters characterised as ‘occurring with little or no warning and often cause excessive injuries far surpassing the national response capacities’. Based on the panel analysis of the historic record of 4,252 natural onset disasters between 1980 to 2015, a predictive method was developed to predict the human impact of the disaster (fatality, injured, homeless) with less than 3% of errors. The geographical dispersion of the disasters includes every country where the data were available and cross-examined from various humanitarian sources. The records were then filtered into 4252 records of the disasters where the five predictive variables (disaster type, HDI, DRI, population, and population density) were clearly stated. The procedure was designed based on a combination of pattern recognition techniques and rule-based clustering for prediction and discrimination analysis to validate the results further. The result indicates that there is a relationship between the disaster human impact and the five socio-economic characteristics of the affected country mentioned above. As a result, a framework was put forward, which could predict the disaster’s human impact based on their severity rank in the early hours of disaster strike. The predictions in this model were outlined in two worst and best-case scenarios, which respectively inform the lower range and higher range of the prediction. A necessity to develop the predictive framework can be highlighted by noticing that despite the existing research in literature, a framework for predicting the human impact and estimating the needs at the time of the disaster is yet to be developed. This can further be used to allocate the resources at the response phase of the disaster where the data is scarce.

Keywords: disaster management, natural disaster, pattern recognition, prediction

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19309 Innovations and Agricultural Development Potential in Georgia

Authors: Tamar Lazariashvili

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Introduction: The growth and development of the economy in the country depend on many factors, the most important of which is the use of innovation. The article analyzes the innovations and the potential of agricultural development in Georgia, presents the problems in the field, justifies the need to introduce innovations, shows the policy of innovation development, evaluates the positive and negative factors of the use of innovations in agriculture. Methodology: The article uses general and specific research methods, namely, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison and statistical ones: selection, grouping, observation, trend. All these methods used together in the article reveal the main problems and challenges and their development trends. Main Findings: The introduction of innovations for the country has an impact if there is established state support system for business development and the State creates an effective environment for innovation development. As a result, the appropriate establishment gives incentives to increase budget revenues, create new jobs, increase export turnover and improve the overall economic situation in the country. Georgia has sufficient resource potential to create and develop new businesses in agriculture by introducing innovations and contribute to the further socio-economic development of the country. Political and economic stability, the existing legislation in the country, infrastructure, the proper functioning of financial institutions and the qualification of the workforce are crucial for the development of innovations. These criteria determine the political and economic ratings of all countries of the world, which are of great importance to foreign investors in the implementation of innovations. Conclusion: Enactment of agro-insurance will increase the interest and confidence of financial institutions in the farming sector, financial resources will be accessible to the farmers that will facilitate the stable development of the sector in the country. The size of the agro-insurance market in the country should be increased and the new territories should be covered. The State must have an obligation to ensure the risk of farmers and subsidize insurance companies. Based on an analysis of the insurance market the conclusions on agro-insurance issues and the relevant recommendations are proposed. The introduction of innovations in agriculture will have a great impact on the Georgian economy: it will improve the technological base, establish enterprises equipped with modern equipment and methodologies, retrain existing enterprises, promote to improve skills of workers and improve management systems. Based on the analysis, conclusions are made about the prospects for the development of innovation in agriculture and relevant recommendations are proposed.

Keywords: agriculture, development potential, innovation, optimal environment

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