Search results for: threat modelling

Authors: Mohammad Y. Alfaifi

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Anything that poses a challenge or a threat to our well-being is a stress. Understanding the genetic material and cellular response of rats threatened with Repeated swimming stress provides insights that can influence human health. The aim of the present study was to assess the genetical damage and cytological changes caused by exposure of the test organism (Rattus rattus) to forced swimming stress. For this purpose, animals have been submerged in water path 15 minutes daily for 2 weeks. Following that, we performed a micronuclei (MN) test using MNNCE (Micronucleated normocromatic erythrocytes) and MNPCE (Micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes), NDI (Nuclear division index) and cytological parameters using NDCI (nuclear division cytotoxicity index), necrotic and apoptotic cells in rat's bone marrow samples. Results showed that there was a slightly but not significant increase in the frequency of micronucleated as well as in cytological parameters in bone marrow cells.

Keywords: submergence stress, micronucleus, NDI, NDCI, toxicity, chromosomal aberrations

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Authors: Dongchuan Su, Hai Xie, Naibin Jiang

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Under severe accident cases, the nuclear reactor core may meltdown inside the lower head of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). Retaining the melt pool inside the RPV is an important strategy of severe accident management. During this process, the inner wall of the lower head will be heated to high temperature of a thousand centigrade, and the outer wall is immersed in a large amount of cooling water. The material of the lower head will have serious creep damage under the high temperature and the temperature difference, and this produces a great threat to the integrity of the RPV. In this paper, the ANSYS program is employed to build the finite element method (FEM) model of the lower head, the creep phenomena is simulated under the severe accident case, the time dependent strain and stress distribution is obtained, the creep damage of the lower head is investigated, the integrity of the RPV is evaluated and the theoretical basis is provided for the optimized design and safety assessment of the RPV.

Keywords: severe accident, lower head of RPV, creep, FEM

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Authors: Priti Bajpai, Mohammed Shibil

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This paper utilizes a comparative case study design to examine a regional onion market. The particular case of onion markets is used to understand perishable product supply chains. The site for the study is Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Results from a six-month field study are outlined. In particular, the findings suggest that firms should examine adding additional destinations to their supply chain. Further, we argue that utilizing Dubai as a supply chain hub is in certain cases counterproductive. Implications for food supply chains and regional trade are discussed.

Keywords: supply chains, food markets, onion trade, field study

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Authors: Y. S. Yusoff, G. Streftaris, H. R Waters

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Death within 30 days is an important factor to be looked into, as there is a significant risk of deaths immediately following or soon after, Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke. In this paper, we will model the deaths within 30 days following a Myocardial Infarction (MI) or stroke in the UK. We will see how the probabilities of sudden deaths from MI or stroke have changed over the period 1981-2000. We will model the sudden deaths using a Generalized Linear Model (GLM), fitted using the R statistical package, under a Binomial distribution for the number of sudden deaths. We parameterize our model using the extensive and detailed data from the Framingham Heart Study, adjusted to match UK rates. The results show that there is a reduction for the sudden deaths following a MI over time but no significant improvement for sudden deaths following a stroke.

Keywords: sudden deaths, myocardial infarction, stroke, ischemic heart disease

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Authors: Ali Muhammad

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The purpose of this study is to develop and test a theoretical framework which demonstrates the effect of procedural justice on four work outcomes: effective organizational commitmentو organizational trust, organizational citizenship behaviour, and adherence to rules. The new model attempts to explain how procedural justice effects work outcomes. Data were collected from 267 employees working in nine Kuwaiti business organizations. Structural equation modelling was used to analysis the data. A discussion of issues related to procedural justice is presented, as well as recommendations for future research.

Keywords: procedural justice, affective organizational commitment, organizational citizenship behaviour, organizational trust, adherence to rules

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Authors: Nithya Devi

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Poverty, hunger and water scarcity are threats to human rights and are assaults on human dignity. The very existence of man is questioned when his basic rights are violated. Addressing this social phenomenon should be a key objective of any human rights discourse. The origins of these problems have various root causes. For Asia, colonisation was an essential factor that caused great inequalities in the distribution of wealth. In the post-colonial era, the colonised states were developing nations grappling with these issues. Today, some of the developing states have progressed to developed nations. However, others remain as economically vulnerable countries. Within states, the widening income gap poses further threat to human rights. Hence ASEAN states have prioritised socio-economic rights, particularly basic needs, in the human rights discourse in this region. To date, poverty and development goals are given primary importance. This paper seeks to show how a human rights approach has dealt with poverty and development goals in this region and evaluates its effectiveness in addressing these concerns.

Keywords: ASEAN, development, human rights, poverty

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Authors: Calister Wingang Makebe, Wilson Ambindei Agwanande, Emmanuel Jong Nso, P. Nisha

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Traditional liquid-state fermentation processes of Annona muricata L. juice can result in fluctuating product quality and quantity due to difficulties in control and scale up. This work describes a laboratory-scale batch fermentation process to produce a probiotic Annona muricata L. enzymatically extracted juice, which was modeled using the Doehlert design with independent extraction factors being incubation time, temperature, and enzyme concentration. It aimed at a better understanding of the traditional process as an initial step for future optimization. Annona muricata L. juice was fermented with L. acidophilus (NCDC 291) (LA), L. casei (NCDC 17) (LC), and a blend of LA and LC (LCA) for 72 h at 37 °C. Experimental data were fitted into mathematical models (Monod, Logistic and Luedeking and Piret models) using MATLAB software, to describe biomass growth, sugar utilization, and organic acid production. The optimal fermentation time was obtained based on cell viability, which was 24 h for LC and 36 h for LA and LCA. The model was particularly effective in estimating biomass growth, reducing sugar consumption, and lactic acid production. The values of the determination coefficient, R2, were 0.9946, 0.9913 and 0.9946, while the residual sum of square error, SSE, was 0.2876, 0.1738 and 0.1589 for LC, LA and LCA, respectively. The growth kinetic parameters included the maximum specific growth rate, µm, which was 0.2876 h-1, 0.1738 h-1 and 0.1589 h-1 as well as the substrate saturation, Ks, with 9.0680 g/L, 9.9337 g/L and 9.0709 g/L respectively for LC, LA and LCA. For the stoichiometric parameters, the yield of biomass based on utilized substrate (YXS) was 50.7932, 3.3940 and 61.0202, and the yield of product based on utilized substrate (YPS) was 2.4524, 0.2307 and 0.7415 for LC, LA, and LCA, respectively. In addition, the maintenance energy parameter (ms) was 0.0128, 0.0001 and 0.0004 with respect to LC, LA and LCA. With the kinetic model proposed by Luedeking and Piret for lactic acid production rate, the growth associated, and non-growth associated coefficients were determined as 1.0028 and 0.0109, respectively. The model was demonstrated for batch growth of LA, LC, and LCA in Annona muricata L. juice. The present investigation validates the potential of Annona muricata L. based medium for heightened economical production of a probiotic medium.

Keywords: L. acidophilus, L. casei, fermentation, modelling, kinetics

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Authors: Chastiti Mediafira Wulolo

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Our Eyes is a cooperation pact in the field of intelligence information exchanges initiated by the Indonesian Ministry of Defense, which has been signed by Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Thailand, and Singapore. This cooperation mostly engages the military acts as a central role, but this pact still requires the involvement of various parties such as police and other linear institution. This paper will use a qualitative content analysis method by doing some deep analyzing the pattern of cooperation itself. As the implementation of translantic counter-terrorism cooperation, this research will address how the role of Our Eyes can be optimized as a form of government’s response towards the contemporary threat in the Dynamics of Strategic Environmental Security in the Asia Pacific Region. Optimizing the role of this cooperation will also acquire from the previous counter-terrorism cooperation in ASEAN region, so it expects that Our Eyes collaboration can be the most effective cooperation in overcoming terrorism issues in ASEAN, eventually in Asia Pacific.

Keywords: our eyes, Defense Ministry of Indonesia, ASEAN, counter-terrorism

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Authors: Asegid Belay Kebede, Getachew Biru Worku

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The Earth and its inhabitants have faced an existential threat as a result of severe manmade actions. Global warming and climate change have been the most apparent manifestations of this threat throughout the world, with increasingly intense heat waves, temperature rises, flooding, sea-level rise, ice sheet melting, and so on. One of the major contributors to this disaster is the ever-increasing production and consumption of energy, which is still primarily fossil-based and emits billions of tons of hazardous GHG. The transportation industry is recognized as the biggest actor in terms of emissions, accounting for 24% of direct CO2 emissions and being one of the few worldwide sectors where CO2 emissions are still growing. Rail transportation, which includes all from light rail transit to high-speed rail services, is regarded as one of the most efficient modes of transportation, accounting for 9% of total passenger travel and 7% of total freight transit. Nonetheless, there is still room for improvement in the transportation sector, which might be done by incorporating alternative and/or renewable energy sources. As a result of these rapidly changing global energy situations and rapidly dwindling fossil fuel supplies, we were driven to analyze the possibility of renewable energy sources for traction applications. Even a small achievement in energy conservation or harnessing might significantly influence the total railway system and have the potential to transform the railway sector like never before. As a result, the paper begins by assessing the potential for photovoltaic (PV) power generation on train rooftops and existing infrastructure such as railway depots, passenger stations, traction substation rooftops, and accessible land along rail lines. As a result, a method based on a Google Earth system (using Helioscopes software) is developed to assess the PV potential along rail lines and on train station roofs. As an example, the Addis Ababa light rail transit system (AA-LRTS) is utilized. The case study examines the electricity-generating potential and economic performance of photovoltaics installed on AALRTS. As a consequence, the overall capacity of solar systems on all stations, including train rooftops, reaches 72.6 MWh per day, with an annual power output of 10.6 GWh. Throughout a 25-year lifespan, the overall CO2 emission reduction and total profit from PV-AA-LRTS can reach 180,000 tons and 892 million Ethiopian birrs, respectively. The PV-AA-LRTS has a 200% return on investment. All PV stations have a payback time of less than 13 years, and the price of solar-generated power is less than $0.08/kWh, which can compete with the benchmark price of coal-fired electricity. Our findings indicate that PV-AA-LRTS has tremendous potential, with both energy and economic advantages.

Keywords: sustainable development, global warming, energy crisis, photovoltaic energy conversion, techno-economic analysis, transportation system, light rail transit

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Authors: Fatema Akram, Mohammad G. Rasul, M. Masud K. Khan, M. Sharif I. I. Amir

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Australia is a country of some 7,700 million square kilometres with a population of about 22.6 million. At present water security is a major challenge for Australia. In some areas the use of water resources is approaching and in some parts it is exceeding the limits of sustainability. A focal point of proposed national water conservation programs is the recycling of both urban storm-water and treated wastewater. But till now it is not widely practiced in Australia, and particularly storm-water is neglected. In Australia, only 4% of storm-water and rainwater is recycled, whereas less than 1% of reclaimed wastewater is reused within urban areas. Therefore, accurately monitoring, assessing and predicting the availability, quality and use of this precious resource are required for better management. As storm-water is usually of better quality than untreated sewage or industrial discharge, it has better public acceptance for recycling and reuse, particularly for non-potable use such as irrigation, watering lawns, gardens, etc. Existing storm-water recycling practice is far behind of research and no robust technologies developed for this purpose. Therefore, there is a clear need for using modern technologies for assessing feasibility of storm-water harvesting and reuse. Numerical modelling has, in recent times, become a popular tool for doing this job. It includes complex hydrological and hydraulic processes of the study area. The hydrologic model computes storm-water quantity to design the system components, and the hydraulic model helps to route the flow through storm-water infrastructures. Nowadays water quality module is incorporated with these models. Integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) with these models provides extra advantage of managing spatial information. However for the overall management of a storm-water harvesting project, Decision Support System (DSS) plays an important role incorporating database with model and GIS for the proper management of temporal information. Additionally DSS includes evaluation tools and Graphical user interface. This research aims to critically review and discuss all the aspects of storm-water harvesting and reuse such as available guidelines of storm-water harvesting and reuse, public acceptance of water reuse, the scopes and recommendation for future studies. In addition to these, this paper identifies, understand and address the importance of modern technologies capable of proper management of storm-water harvesting and reuse.

Keywords: storm-water management, storm-water harvesting and reuse, numerical modelling, geographic information system, decision support system, database

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Authors: Pınar Yardımcı

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This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or not trade openness cause economic growth and trade policy changes is good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy before and after 1980. We employ Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests with error correction modelling based on vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra complementary economic reforms.

Keywords: globalization, trade policy, economic growth, openness, cointegration, Turkey

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Authors: Nasir Baba Ahmed, Nicolas Daclin, Marc Olivaux, Gilles Dusserre

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The Mobile field hospital is critical in terms of managing emergencies in crisis. It is a sub-section of the main hospitals and the health sector, tasked with delivering responsive, immediate, and efficient medical services during a crisis. With the aim to prevent further crisis, the assessment of the cyber assets follows different methods, to distinguish its strengths and weaknesses, and in turn achieve cyber resiliency. The work focuses on assessments of cyber resilience in field hospitals with trends growing in both the field hospital and the health sector in general. This creates opportunities for the adverse attackers and the response improvement objectives for attaining cyber resilience, as the assessments allow users and stakeholders to know the level of risks with regards to its cyber assets. Thus, the purpose is to show the possible threat vectors which open up opportunities, with contrast to current trends in the assessment of the mobile field hospitals’ cyber assets.

Keywords: assessment framework, cyber resilience, cyber security, mobile field hospital

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Authors: Dursun Kalebaşi

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When we examine the history of mankind (from the past up to the present), we see that millions of people died because of the wars. Especially, since the beginning of 19th century, the increase of the human death rate is caused mostly by the regional conflicts and natural disasters rather than the wars. From that point of view, the biggest threat humanity face today is temperature increase and climate change that started to emerge in recent years. When we take into account the natural disasters on one hand and refuges that flee from regional conflicts on the other, it stands out as a dramatic situation because of the huge human losses. In this context, most of the countries started to give more importance to Search and Rescue (SAR) operations to stop the loss of lives or decrease the death rate. This article will tell about the SAR activities in Turkey since 2000 and discuss the Turkey’s contributions to Rescue Missions after the natural disasters in different parts of the world. Moreover, there will be some new highlights to a more habitable and more peaceful world through the SAR missions.

Keywords: search and rescue, natural disasters, migration and world peace, Turkish army forces

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Authors: Tina Abrefa-Gyan

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Background: In Ghana and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS is a public health threat and also causes medical crises for many who are infected with the virus. Objective: This study tested a social care intervention developed to help improve the quality of life of those living with HIV/AIDS in Ghana. Method: Adult respondents (N = 248) were assigned to receive the intervention or usual care for six weeks. Results: Results of the study revealed significant differences between the treatment and control groups in their reports of quality of life. Respondents reported better quality of life upon receiving the intervention. Implication: This study sheds light on the positive relationship between the intervention and quality of life among those living with HIV/AIDS in Ghana. Conclusion: The intervention is innovative and novel in the setting. It will, therefore, help to reduce the risks such as depression, low cognitive functioning, and low physical functioning associated with low quality of life among people living with HIV/AIDS in Ghana in specific, and in sub-Saharan Africa in general.

Keywords: social care intervention, HIV/AIDS, Ghana, quality of life

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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Authors: Syed Mahbubuz Zaman, A. B. M. Abrar Haque, Mehedi Hassan Nayeem, Misbah Uddin Sagor

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Everyday e-mails are being used by millions of people as an effective form of communication over the Internet. Although e-mails allow high-speed communication, there is a constant threat known as spam. Spam e-mail is often called junk e-mails which are unsolicited and sent in bulk. These unsolicited emails cause security concerns among internet users because they are being exposed to inappropriate content. There is no guaranteed way to stop spammers who use static filters as they are bypassed very easily. In this paper, a smart system is proposed that will be using neural networks to approach spam in a different way, and meanwhile, this will also detect the most relevant features that will help to design the spam filter. Also, a comparison of different parameters for different neural network models has been shown to determine which model works best within suitable parameters.

Keywords: long short-term memory, bidirectional long short-term memory, gated recurrent unit, natural language processing, natural language processing

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Authors: J. Cwiklak, M. Grzegorzewski, M. Adamski

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The paper presents results of the project conducted in Poland devoted to study on bird strikes at military airfields. The main aim of this project was to develop methods of aircraft protection against threats from birds. The studies were carried out using two methods. One by transect and the other one by selected sector scanning. During the research, it was recorded, that 104 species of birds in the number about of 36000 were observed. The most frequent ones were starling Sturnus vulgaris (31.0%), jackdaw Corvus monedula (18.3%), rook Corvus frugilegus (15.9 %), lapwing Vanellus vanellus (6.2%). Moreover, it was found, that starlings constituted the most serious threat. It resulted from their relatively high attendance at the runway (about 300 individuals). Possible repellent techniques concerning of the Deblin military airfield were discussed. The analysis of the birds’ concentration depending on the altitude, part of the day, year, part of the airfield constituted a base to work out critical flight phase and appropriate procedures to prevent bird strikes.

Keywords: airport, bird strikes, flight safety, preventive methods

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Authors: Eshta Ranyal, Kamal Jain, Vikrant Ranyal

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Potholes are a severe threat to road safety and a major contributing factor towards road distress. In the Indian context, they are a major road hazard. Timely detection of potholes and subsequent repair can prevent the roads from deteriorating. To facilitate the roadway authorities in the timely detection and repair of potholes, we propose a pothole detection methodology using convolutional neural networks. The YOLOv3 model is used as it is fast and accurate in comparison to other state-of-the-art models. You only look once v3 (YOLOv3) is a state-of-the-art, real-time object detection system that features multi-scale detection. A mean average precision(mAP) of 73% was obtained on a training dataset of 200 images. The dataset was then increased to 500 images, resulting in an increase in mAP. We further calculated the depth of the potholes using stereoscopic vision by reconstruction of 3D potholes. This enables calculating pothole volume, its extent, which can then be used to evaluate the pothole severity as low, moderate, high.

Keywords: CNN, pothole detection, pothole severity, YOLO, stereovision

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Authors: Moustapha H. Ibrahim, Dahir Abdourahman

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This document presents a short-circuit fault detection process in a photovoltaic (PV) system. The proposed method is developed in MATLAB/Simulink. It determines whatever the size of the installation number of the short circuit module. The proposed algorithm indicates the presence or absence of an abnormality on the power of the PV system through measures of hourly global irradiation, power output, and ambient temperature. In case a fault is detected, it displays the number of modules in a short circuit. This fault detection method has been successfully tested on two different PV installations.

Keywords: PV system, short-circuit, fault detection, modelling, MATLAB-Simulink

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Authors: Ali K. M. Al-Nasrawi, Uday A. Al-Hamdany, Sarah M. Hamylton, Brian G. Jones, Yasir M. Alyazichi

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Surface elevation dynamics have always responded to disturbance regimes. Creating Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to detect surface dynamics has led to the development of several methods, devices and data clouds. DEMs can provide accurate and quick results with cost efficiency, in comparison to the inherited geomatics survey techniques. Nowadays, remote sensing datasets have become a primary source to create DEMs, including LiDAR point clouds with GIS analytic tools. However, these data need to be tested for error detection and correction. This paper evaluates various DEMs from different data sources over time for Apple Orchard Island, a coastal site in southeastern Australia, in order to detect surface dynamics. Subsequently, 30 chosen locations were examined in the field to test the error of the DEMs surface detection using high resolution global positioning systems (GPSs). Results show significant surface elevation changes on Apple Orchard Island. Accretion occurred on most of the island while surface elevation loss due to erosion is limited to the northern and southern parts. Concurrently, the projected differential correction and validation method aimed to identify errors in the dataset. The resultant DEMs demonstrated a small error ratio (≤ 3%) from the gathered datasets when compared with the fieldwork survey using RTK-GPS. As modern modelling approaches need to become more effective and accurate, applying several tools to create different DEMs on a multi-temporal scale would allow easy predictions in time-cost-frames with more comprehensive coverage and greater accuracy. With a DEM technique for the eco-geomorphic context, such insights about the ecosystem dynamic detection, at such a coastal intertidal system, would be valuable to assess the accuracy of the predicted eco-geomorphic risk for the conservation management sustainability. Demonstrating this framework to evaluate the historical and current anthropogenic and environmental stressors on coastal surface elevation dynamism could be profitably applied worldwide.

Keywords: DEMs, eco-geomorphic-dynamic processes, geospatial Information Science, remote sensing, surface elevation changes,

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Authors: Hammad Majeed, Hanna Knuutila, Magne Hilestad, Hallvard Svendsen

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Formation of aerosols can cause serious complications in industrial exhaust gas CO2 capture processes. SO3 present in the flue gas can cause aerosol formation in an absorption based capture process. Small mist droplets and fog formed can normally not be removed in conventional demisting equipment because their submicron size allows the particles or droplets to follow the gas flow. As a consequence of this aerosol based emissions in the order of grams per Nm3 have been identified from PCCC plants. In absorption processes aerosols are generated by spontaneous condensation or desublimation processes in supersaturated gas phases. Undesired aerosol development may lead to amine emissions many times larger than what would be encountered in a mist free gas phase in PCCC development. It is thus of crucial importance to understand the formation and build-up of these aerosols in order to mitigate the problem.Rigorous modelling of aerosol dynamics leads to a system of partial differential equations. In order to understand mechanics of a particle entering an absorber an implementation of the model is created in Matlab. The model predicts the droplet size, the droplet internal variable profiles and the mass transfer fluxes as function of position in the absorber. The Matlab model is based on a subclass method of weighted residuals for boundary value problems named, orthogonal collocation method. The model comprises a set of mass transfer equations for transferring components and the essential diffusion reaction equations to describe the droplet internal profiles for all relevant constituents. Also included is heat transfer across the interface and inside the droplet. This paper presents results describing the basic simulation tool for the characterization of aerosols formed in CO2 absorption columns and gives examples as to how various entering droplets grow or shrink through an absorber and how their composition changes with respect to time. Below are given some preliminary simulation results for an aerosol droplet composition and temperature profiles. Results: As an example a droplet of initial size of 3 microns, initially containing a 5M MEA, solution is exposed to an atmosphere free of MEA. Composition of the gas phase and temperature is changing with respect to time throughout the absorber.

Keywords: amine solvents, emissions, global climate change, simulation and modelling, aerosol generation

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Authors: Retno A. Vinarti, Lucy M. Hederman

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This research describes a knowledge model for a system which give personalized alert to users about infectious disease risks in the context of weather, location and time. The knowledge model is based on established epidemiological concepts augmented by information gleaned from infection-related data repositories. The existing disease risk prediction research has more focuses on utilizing raw historical data and yield seasonal patterns of infectious disease risk emergence. This research incorporates both data and epidemiological concepts gathered from Atlas of Human Infectious Disease (AHID) and Centre of Disease Control (CDC) as basic reasoning of infectious disease risk prediction. Using CommonKADS methodology, the disease risk prediction task is an assignment synthetic task, starting from knowledge identification through specification, refinement to implementation. First, knowledge is gathered from AHID primarily from the epidemiology and risk group chapters for each infectious disease. The result of this stage is five major elements (Person, Infectious Disease, Weather, Location and Time) and their properties. At the knowledge specification stage, the initial tree model of each element and detailed relationships are produced. This research also includes a validation step as part of knowledge refinement: on the basis that the best model is formed using the most common features, Frequency-based Selection (FBS) is applied. The portion of the Infectious Disease risk model relating to Person comes out strongest, with Location next, and Weather weaker. For Person attribute, Age is the strongest, Activity and Habits are moderate, and Blood type is weakest. At the Location attribute, General category (e.g. continents, region, country, and island) results much stronger than Specific category (i.e. terrain feature). For Weather attribute, Less Precise category (i.e. season) comes out stronger than Precise category (i.e. exact temperature or humidity interval). However, given that some infectious diseases are significantly more serious than others, a frequency based metric may not be appropriate. Future work will incorporate epidemiological measurements of disease seriousness (e.g. odds ratio, hazard ratio and fatality rate) into the validation metrics. This research is limited to modelling existing knowledge about epidemiology and chain of infection concepts. Further step, verification in knowledge refinement stage, might cause some minor changes on the shape of tree.

Keywords: epidemiology, knowledge modelling, infectious disease, prediction, risk

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Authors: Lukas Reznak, Maria Reznakova

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Recession of an economy has a profound negative effect on all involved stakeholders. It follows that timely prediction of recessions has been of utmost interest both in the theoretical research and in practical macroeconomic modelling. Current mainstream of recession prediction is based on standard OLS models of continuous GDP using macroeconomic data. This approach is not suitable for two reasons: the standard continuous models are proving to be obsolete and the macroeconomic data are unreliable, often revised many years retroactively. The aim of the paper is to explore a different branch of recession forecasting research theory and verify the findings on real data of the Czech Republic and Germany. In the paper, the authors present a family of discrete choice probit models with parameters estimated by the method of maximum likelihood. In the basic form, the probits model a univariate series of recessions and expansions in the economic cycle for a given country. The majority of the paper deals with more complex model structures, namely dynamic and bivariate extensions. The dynamic structure models the autoregressive nature of recessions, taking into consideration previous economic activity to predict the development in subsequent periods. Bivariate extensions utilize information from a foreign economy by incorporating correlation of error terms and thus modelling the dependencies of the two countries. Bivariate models predict a bivariate time series of economic states in both economies and thus enhance the predictive performance. A vital enabler of timely and successful recession forecasting are reliable and readily available data. Leading indicators, namely the yield curve and the stock market indices, represent an ideal data base, as the pieces of information is available in advance and do not undergo any retroactive revisions. As importantly, the combination of yield curve and stock market indices reflect a range of macroeconomic and financial market investors’ trends which influence the economic cycle. These theoretical approaches are applied on real data of Czech Republic and Germany. Two models for each country were identified – each for in-sample and out-of-sample predictive purposes. All four followed a bivariate structure, while three contained a dynamic component.

Keywords: bivariate probit, leading indicators, recession forecasting, Czech Republic, Germany

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Authors: Valeria Bondarenko

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We proposed algorithms for: estimation of parameters fBm (volatility and Hurst exponent) and for the approximation of random time series by functional of fBm. We proved the consistency of the estimators, which constitute the above algorithms, and proved the optimal forecast of approximated time series. The adequacy of estimation algorithms, approximation, and forecasting is proved by numerical experiment. During the process of creating software, the system has been created, which is displayed by the hierarchical structure. The comparative analysis of proposed algorithms with the other methods gives evidence of the advantage of approximation method. The results can be used to develop methods for the analysis and modeling of time series describing the economic, physical, biological and other processes.

Keywords: mathematical model, random process, Wiener process, fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: Grace Titilayo, Kolawole-Amao

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Influence and authority of law within society should be respected by all and sundry regardless of individual status. Rule of law implies that every citizen is subject to the law. In a society governed by the rule of law, government and its officials and agents are also held subject to and accountable under the law. Law should not be employed to suit individual tenets. Where the rule of law operates, the government is the government of law and not of men. Corruption is a factor that kills the growth of the rule of law. Where corruption flourishes, the rule of law fails, simply put, corruption is a threat to the rule of law. It bastardized and undermines the rule of law and good governance principles - where men rule at their discretion rather than the use of the rule of law which makes governance processes ineffective. Corruption is prevalent all over the world, and has extremely far reaching effects. Many of the world’s greatest challenges have been amplified by corruption, for example poverty, unequal distribution of wealth and resources, and world hunger and it weakens the application and the entrenchment of the rule of law. It saps citizens' trust in their governments and undercuts government credibility. This paper will discuss the rule of law in the present democratic system in Nigeria, the impact of corruption on the rule of law in Nigeria and how corruption undermines and subverts the entrenchment of the rule of law in the present day Nigeria.

Keywords: rule of law, corruption, Nigeria, influence, authority

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Authors: U. Chattaraj, K. Dhusiya, M. Raviteja

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Perception reaction time of drivers is an outcome of human thought process, which is vague and approximate in nature and also varies from driver to driver. So, in this study a fuzzy logic based model for prediction of the same has been presented, which seems suitable. The control factors, like, age, experience, intensity of driving of the driver, speed of the vehicle and distance of stimulus have been considered as premise variables in the model, in which the perception reaction time is the consequence variable. Results show that the model is able to explain the impacts of the control factors on perception reaction time properly.

Keywords: driver, fuzzy logic, perception reaction time, premise variable

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Authors: A. Brahma

Abstract:

Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

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Authors: R. S. Remya, U. S. Sethulekshmi

Abstract:

Detecting the authenticity of a video is an important issue in digital forensics as Video is used as a silent evidence in court such as in child pornography, movie piracy cases, insurance claims, cases involving scientific fraud, traffic monitoring etc. The biggest threat to video data is the availability of modern open video editing tools which enable easy editing of videos without leaving any trace of tampering. In this paper, we propose an efficient passive method for inter-frame video tampering detection, its type and location by estimating the optical flow of wavelet features of adjacent frames and thresholding the variation in the estimated feature. The performance of the algorithm is compared with the z-score thresholding and achieved an efficiency above 95% on all the tested databases. The proposed method works well for videos with dynamic (forensics) as well as static (surveillance) background.

Keywords: discrete wavelet transform, optical flow, optical flow variation, video tampering

Procedia PDF Downloads 344

Authors: Isa Muhammad Zumo

Abstract:

Malaria is one of the worst illnesses that may affect humans. It is typically transmitted by the bite of a female Anopheles mosquito and is caused by parasitic protozoans from the Plasmodium parasite. Government and non-governmental organizations made numerous initiatives to combat the threat of malaria in communities. Nevertheless, the necessary attention was not paid to accurate and current information regarding the size and location of these favourable locations for mosquito development. Because mosquitoes can only reproduce in specific habitats with surface water, this study will locate and map those favourable sites that act as mosquito breeding grounds. Spatial and attribute data relating to favourable mosquito breeding places will be collected and analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The major findings will be in five classes, showing the vulnerable and risky areas for malaria cases. These risk categories are very high, high, moderate, low, and extremely low vulnerable areas. The maps produced by this study will be of great use to the health department in combating the malaria pandemic.

Keywords: Malaria, vulnerability, mapping, space, Damaturu

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Authors: Muzammil Dar

Abstract:

The confluence of trans-national interests and divergent approaches followed by multiple actors has surrounded the Indo-Pacific region with myriad of strategic complexes- Geo-Political, Geo-economic, and security. This paper has thus made a humble attempt to understand the Indo-Pacific strategic predicament from Asia-Pacific perspective. The portmanteau of Indo-Pacific strategic gamble has multiple actors from global powers to regional actors. On the indo-pacific waters, not only flow trade relations, but the tides of conflicts and controversies are striking these actors against each other. The alliance formation and infrastructure building has built-in threat perceptions from rivals vice-versa. The assertiveness of China as a reality and India’s ideological doctrine of peace and friendship, as well as American rebalancing against China, could be seen as clear and bright on the Indo-Pacific strategic portmanteau. ASEAN and Japan, too, have oscillating posturing in the strategic dilemma. The aim and objective of the paper are to sketch out the prospectus and prejudices of Indo-pacific strategic complex.

Keywords: Indo Pacific, Asia Pacific, security and growth for all in the region, SAGAR, ASEAN China

Procedia PDF Downloads 133