Search results for: forecast combination

Authors: Marpaleni

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The intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared in 2007 that global warming and climate change are not just a series of events caused by nature, but rather caused by human behaviour. Thus, to reduce the impact of human activities on climate change it is required to have information about how people respond to the environmental issues and what constraints they face. However, information on these and other phenomena remains largely missing, or not fully integrated within the existing data systems. The proposed study is aimed at filling the gap in this knowledge by focusing on Environmentally Friendly Behaviour (EFB) of the people of Indonesia, by taking the province of South Sumatera as a case of study. EFB is defined as any activity in which people engage to improve the conditions of the natural resources and/or to diminish the impact of their behaviour on the environment. This activity is measured in terms of consumption in five areas at the household level, namely housing, energy, water usage, recycling and transportation. By adopting the Indonesia’s Environmentally Friendly Behaviour conducted by Statistics Indonesia in 2013, this study aims to precisely identify one’s orientation towards EFB based on socio demographic characteristics such as: age, income, occupation, location, education, gender and family size. The results of this research will be useful to precisely identify what support people require to strengthen their EFB, to help identify specific constraints that different actors and groups face and to uncover a more holistic understanding of EFB in relation to particular demographic and socio-economics contexts. As the empirical data are examined from the national data sample framework, which will continue to be collected, it can be used to forecast and monitor the future of EFB.

Keywords: environmentally friendly behavior, demographic, South Sumatera, Indonesia

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Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

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The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

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Authors: S. Yousefi Oderji, B. Chen

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According to the ASTM C1018 toughness index method, the single and combined toughness effects of copper coated steel fiber and polypropylene (pp) fiber on reactive powder concrete (RPC) were investigated. Through flexural toughness test of RPC with different fiber volume dosages, the corresponding load-deflection curves were also drawn. Test results indicate that the binary combination of fibers provide the best flexural toughness, and improve the post-peak load-deflection characteristics of RPC. However, the single effect of pp fibers was not pronounced on improving the flexural toughness of RPC.

Keywords: RPC, PP, flexural toughness, toughness index

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Authors: Ji-Chan Jang

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Tuberculosis is still major health problem because there is an increase of multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant forms of the disease. Therefore, the most urgent clinical need is to discover potent agents and develop novel drug combination capable of reducing the duration of MDR and XDR tuberculosis therapy. Three reference strains H37Rv, CDC1551, W-Beijing GC1237 and six clinical isolates of MDRTB were tested to daptomycin in the range of 0.013 to 256 mg/L. Daptomycin is resistant to all tested M. tuberculosis strains not only laboratory strains but also clinical MDR strains that were isolated at different source. Daptomycin will not be an antibiotic of choice for treating infection of Gram positive atypical slowly growing M. tuberculosis.

Keywords: tuberculosis, daptomycin, resistance, Mycobacterium tuberculosis

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Authors: Qianqian Chen

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The article intends to design a new research perspective on a linguistic landscape with the research background on multilingual urban tourism by analyzing the collected data, including a number of surveys on current urban tourism and the possibility of internationalization. The language usage analysis focuses on terms of English, Japanese and Spanish, which is based on the previous investigations. The analysis highlights the fact that contemporary tourism management and planning emphasizes cultural memories and heritage, and the combination between culture and tourism recalls the importance of "re-humanity" inhuman activities.

Keywords: multilingualism, culture, linguistic landscape, Hangzhou

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Authors: A.N. Moulay Khatir, A. Guen-Bouazza, B. Bouazza

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SOI-Multifin-FET shows excellent transistor characteristics, ideal sub-threshold swing, low drain induced barrier lowering (DIBL) without pocket implantation and negligible body bias dependency. In this work, we analyzed this combination by a three-dimensional numerical device simulator to investigate the influence of fins number on corner effect by analyzing its electrical characteristics and potential distribution in the oxide and the silicon in the section perpendicular to the flow of the current for SOI-single-fin FET, three-fin and five-fin, and we provide a comparison with a Trigate SOI Multi-FinFET structure.

Keywords: SOI, FinFET, corner effect, dual-gate, tri-gate, Multi-Fin FET

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Authors: D. S. Gomes, A. T. Silva

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Analysis of the uncertainty quantification related to nuclear safety margins applied to the nuclear reactor is an important concept to prevent future radioactive accidents. The nuclear fuel performance code may involve the tolerance level determined by traditional deterministic models producing acceptable results at burn cycles under 62 GWd/MTU. The behavior of nuclear fuel can simulate applying a series of material properties under irradiation and physics models to calculate the safety limits. In this study, theoretical predictions of nuclear fuel failure under transient conditions investigate extended radiation cycles at 75 GWd/MTU, considering the behavior of fuel rods in light-water reactors under reactivity accident conditions. The fuel pellet can melt due to the quick increase of reactivity during a transient. Large power excursions in the reactor are the subject of interest bringing to a treatment that is known as the Fuchs-Hansen model. The point kinetic neutron equations show similar characteristics of non-linear differential equations. In this investigation, the multivariate logistic regression is employed to a probabilistic forecast of fuel failure. A comparison of computational simulation and experimental results was acceptable. The experiments carried out use the pre-irradiated fuels rods subjected to a rapid energy pulse which exhibits the same behavior during a nuclear accident. The propagation of uncertainty utilizes the Wilk's formulation. The variables chosen as essential to failure prediction were the fuel burnup, the applied peak power, the pulse width, the oxidation layer thickness, and the cladding type.

Keywords: logistic regression, reactivity-initiated accident, safety margins, uncertainty propagation

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Authors: Mohamed Mounir Tellache, Hiroyuki Kambara, Yasuharu Koike, Makoto Miyakoshi, Natsue Yoshimura

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This study explores the practicality of using electroencephalographic (EEG) independent components to predict eight-direction finger movements in pseudo-real-time. Six healthy participants with individual-head MRI images performed finger movements in eight directions with two different arm configurations. The analysis was performed in two stages. The first stage consisted of using independent component analysis (ICA) to separate the signals representing brain activity from non-brain activity signals and to obtain the unmixing matrix. The resulting independent components (ICs) were checked, and those reflecting brain-activity were selected. Finally, the time series of the selected ICs were used to predict eight finger-movement directions using Sparse Logistic Regression (SLR). The second stage consisted of using the previously obtained unmixing matrix, the selected ICs, and the model obtained by applying SLR to classify a different EEG dataset. This method was applied to two different settings, namely the single-participant level and the group-level. For the single-participant level, the EEG dataset used in the first stage and the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the same participant. For the group-level, the EEG datasets used in the first stage were constructed by temporally concatenating each combination without repetition of the EEG datasets of five participants out of six, whereas the EEG dataset used in the second stage originated from the remaining participants. The average test classification results across datasets (mean ± S.D.) were 38.62 ± 8.36% for the single-participant, which was significantly higher than the chance level (12.50 ± 0.01%), and 27.26 ± 4.39% for the group-level which was also significantly higher than the chance level (12.49% ± 0.01%). The classification accuracy within [–45°, 45°] of the true direction is 70.03 ± 8.14% for single-participant and 62.63 ± 6.07% for group-level which may be promising for some real-life applications. Clustering and contribution analyses further revealed the brain regions involved in finger movement and the temporal aspect of their contribution to the classification. These results showed the possibility of using the ICA-based method in combination with other methods to build a real-time system to control prostheses.

Keywords: brain-computer interface, electroencephalography, finger motion decoding, independent component analysis, pseudo real-time motion decoding

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Authors: Khatia Tavidashvili, Nino Jamrishvili, Valerian Omsarashvili

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Studies of the vertical distribution of the air temperature in the atmosphere have great value for the solution of different problems of meteorology and climatology (meteorological forecast of showers, thunderstorms, and hail, weather modification, estimation of climate change, etc.). From the end of May 2015 in Kakheti after 25-year interruption, the work of anti-hail service was restored. Therefore, in connection with climate change, the need for the detailed study of the contemporary regime of the vertical distribution of the air temperature above this territory arose. In particular, the indicated information is necessary for the optimum selection of rocket means with the works on the weather modification (fight with the hail, the regulation of atmospheric precipitations, etc.). Construction of the detailed maps of the potential damage distribution of agricultural crops from the hail, etc. taking into account the dimensions of hailstones in the clouds according to the data of radar measurements and height of locality are the most important factors. For now, in Georgia, there is no aerological probing of atmosphere. To solve given problem we processed information about air temperature profiles above Telavi, at 27 km above earth's surface. Information was gathered during four observation time (4, 10, 16, 22 hours with local time. After research, we found vertical distribution of the average monthly values of the air temperature above Kakheti in ‎2012-2017 from January to December. Research was conducted from 0.543 to 27 km above sea level during four periods of research. In particular, it is obtained: -during January the monthly average air temperature linearly diminishes with 2.6 °C on the earth's surface to -57.1 °C at the height of 10 km, then little it changes up to the height of 26 km; the gradient of the air temperature in the layer of the atmosphere from 0.543 to 8 km - 6.3 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 1.33 km. -during July the air temperature linearly diminishes with 23.5 °C to -64.7 °C at the height of 17 km, then it grows to -47.5 °C at the height of 27 km; the gradient of the air temperature of - 6.1 °C/km; height of zero isotherm - is 4.39 km, which on 0.16 km is higher than in the sixties of past century.

Keywords: hail, Kakheti, meteorology, vertical distribution of the air temperature

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Authors: Ravinder Bahl, Jamini Sharma

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The paper demonstrates analysis of the cervical cancer based on a probabilistic model. It involves technique for classification and prediction by recognizing typical and diagnostically most important test features relating to cervical cancer. The main contributions of the research include predicting the probability of recurrences in no recurrence (first time detection) cases. The combination of the conventional statistical and machine learning tools is applied for the analysis. Experimental study with real data demonstrates the feasibility and potential of the proposed approach for the said cause.

Keywords: cervical cancer, recurrence, no recurrence, probabilistic, classification, prediction, machine learning

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Authors: Despina Yiakoumi, Agathe Rouaix

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Laboratory experiments were run to investigate the impact of different design characteristics of the auctions, which have been implemented to procure capacity in the UK’s reformed electricity markets. The experiment studies competition among bidders in procurement multi-unit discrete descending clock auctions under different feedback policies and pricing rules. Theory indicates that feedback policy in combination with the two common pricing rules; last-accepted bid (LAB) and first-rejected bid (FRB), could affect significantly the auction outcome. Two information feedback policies regarding the bidding prices of the participants are considered; with feedback and without feedback. With feedback, after each round participants are informed of the number of items still in the auction and without feedback, after each round participants have no information about the aggregate supply. Under LAB, winning bidders receive the amount of the highest successful bid and under the FRB the winning bidders receive the lowest unsuccessful bid. Based on the theoretical predictions of the alternative auction designs, it was decided to run three treatments. First treatment considers LAB with feedback; second treatment studies LAB without feedback; third treatment investigates FRB without feedback. Theoretical predictions of the game showed that under FRB, the alternative feedback policies are indifferent to the auction outcome. Preliminary results indicate that LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback achieve on average higher clearing prices in comparison to the LAB treatment without feedback. However, the clearing prices under LAB with feedback and FRB without feedback are on average lower compared to the theoretical predictions. Although under LAB without feedback theory predicts the clearing price will drop to the competitive equilibrium, experimental results indicate that participants could still engage in cooperative behavior and drive up the price of the auction. It is showed, both theoretically and experimentally, that the pricing rules and the feedback policy, affect the bidding competitiveness of the auction by providing opportunities to participants to engage in cooperative behavior and exercise market power. LAB without feedback seems to be less vulnerable to market power opportunities compared to the alternative auction designs. This could be an argument for the use of LAB pricing rule in combination with limited feedback in the UK capacity market in an attempt to improve affordability for consumers.

Keywords: descending clock auctions, experiments, feedback policy, market design, multi-unit auctions, pricing rules, procurement auctions

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Authors: Zhan Panpan, Lu Lan, Sun Yong, He Xiongwen, Yan Dong, Gu Ming

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The function of the two spacecraft docking network, the communication and control of a docking target with various spacecrafts is realized in the space lab data management system. In order to solve the problem of the complex data communication mode between the space lab and various spaceships, and the problem of software reuse caused by non-standard protocol, a data management software system supporting rendezvous and docking with various spaceships has been designed. The software system is based on CCSDS Spcecraft Onboard Interface Service(SOIS). It consists of Software Driver Layer, Middleware Layer and Appliaction Layer. The Software Driver Layer hides the various device interfaces using the uniform device driver framework. The Middleware Layer is divided into three lays, including transfer layer, application support layer and system business layer. The communication of space lab plaform bus and the docking bus is realized in transfer layer. Application support layer provides the inter tasks communitaion and the function of unified time management for the software system. The data management software functions are realized in system business layer, which contains telemetry management service, telecontrol management service, flight status management service, rendezvous and docking management service and so on. The Appliaction Layer accomplishes the space lab data management system defined tasks using the standard interface supplied by the Middleware Layer. On the basis of layered architecture, rendezvous and docking tasks and the rendezvous and docking management service are independent in the software system. The rendezvous and docking tasks will be activated and executed according to the different spaceships. In this way, the communication management functions in the independent flight mode, the combination mode of the manned spaceship and the combination mode of the cargo spaceship are achieved separately. The software architecture designed standard appliction interface for the services in each layer. Different requirements of the space lab can be supported by the use of standard services per layer, and the scalability and flexibility of the data management software can be effectively improved. It can also dynamically expand the number and adapt to the protocol of visiting spaceships. The software system has been applied in the data management subsystem of the space lab, and has been verified in the flight of the space lab. The research results of this paper can provide the basis for the design of the data manage system in the future space station.

Keywords: space lab, rendezvous and docking, data management, software system

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Authors: Sourav Biswas, Goutam Prasanna Kar, Suryasarathi Bose

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In order to obtain better materials, control in the precise location of nanoparticles is indispensable. It was shown here that ordered arrangement of nanoparticles, possessing different characteristics (electrical/magnetic dipoles), in the blend structure can result in excellent microwave absorption. This is manifested from a high reflection loss of ca. -67 dB for the best blend structure designed here. To attenuate electromagnetic radiations, the key parameters i.e. high electrical conductivity and large dielectric/magnetic loss are targeted here using a conducting inclusion [multiwall carbon nanotubes, MWNTs]; ferroelectric nanostructured material with associated relaxations in the GHz frequency [barium titanate, BT]; and a loss ferromagnetic nanoparticles [nickel ferrite, NF]. In this study, bi-continuous structures were designed using 50/50 (by wt) blends of polycarbonate (PC) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF). The MWNTs was modified using an electron acceptor molecule; a derivative of perylenediimide, which facilitates π-π stacking with the nanotubes and stimulates efficient charge transport in the blends. The nanoscopic materials have specific affinity towards the PVDF phase. Hence, by introducing surface-active groups, ordered arrangement can be tailored. To accomplish this, both BT and NF was first hydroxylated followed by introducing amine-terminal groups on the surface. The latter facilitated in nucleophilic substitution reaction with PC and resulted in their precise location. In this study, we have shown for the first time that by compartmentalized approach, superior EM attenuation can be achieved. For instance, when the nanoparticles were localized exclusively in the PVDF phase or in both the phases, the minimum reflection loss was ca. -18 dB (for MWNT/BT mixture) and -29 dB (for MWNT/NF mixture), and the shielding was primarily through reflection. Interestingly, by adopting the compartmentalized approach where in, the lossy materials were in the PC phase and the conducting inclusion (MWNT) in PVDF, an outstanding reflection loss of ca. -57 dB (for BT and MWNT combination) and -67 dB (for NF and MWNT combination) was noted and the shielding was primarily through absorption. Thus, the approach demonstrates that nanoscopic structuring in the blends can be achieved under macroscopic processing conditions and this strategy can further be explored to design microwave absorbers.

Keywords: barium titanate, EMI shielding, MWNTs, nickel ferrite

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Authors: O. Vlcek

Abstract:

The paper deals with current issues in research of advanced methods to increase reliability of traditional timber structural elements. It analyses the issue of strengthening of bent timber beams, such as ceiling beams in old (historical) buildings with additional concrete slab in combination with externally bonded fibre - reinforced polymer. The paper describes experimental testing of composite timber-concrete beam with FRP reinforcement and compares results with FEM analysis.

Keywords: timber-concrete composite, strengthening, fibre-reinforced polymer, experimental analysis

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Authors: Jihane Mossalim

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This study proposes a methodological framework that combines Participatory Action Research (PAR) with Arts-Based Research (ABR) to explore the potential of generative AI in elementary art education. By integrating PAR, this framework emphasizes elementary school students’ active participation as co-researchers, engaging with AI technologies and reflecting on their creative journeys. PAR’s iterative cycles of planning, action, observation, and reflection provide a solid structure for involving children in the research process, ensuring that the study is inclusive and reflective of the children’s perspectives. Arts-Based Research, on the other hand, allows for the exploration of AI not just as a tool but as a medium of creative expression. ABR’s emphasis on visual, performative, and creative outputs complements PAR’s inclusive approach, offering a dynamic and flexible way of studying the intersection of technology and art in educational contexts. This combination is particularly valuable as it encourages students to express their ideas and emotions through art, making the learning process more engaging and personally meaningful. Despite the recognized benefits of both PAR and ABR, there remains a notable gap in research that applies these methodologies in combination with elementary school students, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like generative AI. Addressing this gap is crucial, as integrating these approaches can lead to more inclusive and innovative educational practices that cater to the diverse needs of young learners. This chapter seeks to demonstrate how integrating PAR and ABR can empower young learners, giving them a voice in the research process while enriching their creative and critical thinking skills. This chapter will develop a methodology that integrates both theoretical and practical aspects of PAR and ABR, highlighting the challenges and opportunities that emerge when these approaches are integrated. It will also discuss how to adapt these methods for research in the elementary art education, providing a foundation for future inquiry. Further, the chapter will focus on situating these methodological developments in relation to a study that seeks to understand the potential of generative AI in fostering creativity, collaboration, and critical thinking among young learners. Ultimately, this work aims to provide a pioneering example that inspires further exploration and development of educational practices in the digital age.

Keywords: participatory action research, arts-based research, generative AI, elementary art education

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Authors: Navid Mohammadzadeh, Huy Truong-Ba, Michael Cholette

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The solar tower (ST) plant is a promising technology to exploit large-scale solar irradiation. With thermal energy storage, ST plant has the potential to shift generation to high electricity price periods. However, the size of storage limits the dispatchability of the plant, particularly when it should compete with uncertainty in forecasts of solar irradiation and electricity prices. The purpose of this study is to explore the size of storage when Rolling Horizon Control (RHC) is employed for dispatch scheduling. To this end, RHC is benchmarked against perfect knowledge (PK) forecast and two day-ahead dispatching policies. With optimisation of dispatch planning using PK policy, the optimal achievable profit for a specific size of the storage is determined. A sensitivity analysis using Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted, and the size of storage for RHC and day-ahead policies is determined with the objective of reaching the profit obtained from the PK policy. A case study is conducted for a hypothetical ST plant with thermal storage located in South Australia and intends to dispatch under two market scenarios: 1) fixed price and 2) wholesale spot price. The impact of each individual source of uncertainty on storage size is examined for January and August. The exploration of results shows that dispatching with RH controller reaches optimal achievable profit with ~15% smaller storage compared to that in day-ahead policies. The results of this study may be applied to the CSP plant design procedure.

Keywords: solar tower plant, spot market, thermal storage system, optimized dispatch planning, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Laid Degaa, Bachir Bendjedia, Nassim Rizoug, Abdelkader Saidane

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Energy storage system is a key aspect for the development of clean cars. The work proposed here deals with the modeling of hybrid storage sources composed of a combination of lithium-ion battery and supercapacitors. Simulation results show the performance of the active model for a hybrid source and confirm the feasibility of our approach. In this context, sizing of the electrical energy supply is carried out. The aim of this sizing is to propose an 'optimal' solution that improves the performance of electric vehicles in term of weight, cost and aging.

Keywords: battery, electric vehicles, energy, hybrid storage, supercapacitor

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Authors: Karima Megdouli

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The ejector, a central element within the CO₂ transcritical ejection refrigeration system, holds significant importance in enhancing refrigeration capacity and minimizing compressor power usage. This study's objective is to introduce a technique for enhancing the effectiveness of the CO₂ transcritical two-phase ejector, utilizing Taguchi and ANOVA analysis. The investigation delves into the impact of geometric parameters, secondary flow temperature, and primary flow pressure on the efficiency of the ejector. Results indicate that employing a combination of Taguchi and ANOVA offers increased reliability and superior performance when optimizing the design of the CO₂ two-phase ejector.

Keywords: ejector, supersonic, Taguchi, ANOVA, optimization

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Authors: Kanchan Mondal, Dasharath Koulage, Dattatray Manerikar, Asmita Ghate

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This paper presents an additive reliability model using warranty data and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) data. Warranty data for any product gives insight to its underlying issues. This is often used by Reliability Engineers to build prediction model to forecast failure rate of parts. But there is one major limitation in using warranty data for prediction. Warranty periods constitute only a small fraction of total lifetime of a product, most of the time it covers only the infant mortality and useful life zone of a bathtub curve. Predicting with warranty data alone in these cases is not generally provide results with desired accuracy. Failure rate of a mechanical part is driven by random issues initially and wear-out or usage related issues at later stages of the lifetime. For better predictability of failure rate, one need to explore the failure rate behavior at wear out zone of a bathtub curve. Due to cost and time constraints, it is not always possible to test samples till failure, but FEA-Fatigue analysis can provide the failure rate behavior of a part much beyond warranty period in a quicker time and at lesser cost. In this work, the authors proposed an Additive Weibull Model, which make use of both warranty and FEA fatigue analysis data for predicting failure rates. It involves modeling of two data sets of a part, one with existing warranty claims and other with fatigue life data. Hazard rate base Weibull estimation has been used for the modeling the warranty data whereas S-N curved based Weibull parameter estimation is used for FEA data. Two separate Weibull models’ parameters are estimated and combined to form the proposed Additive Weibull Model for prediction.

Keywords: bathtub curve, fatigue, FEA, reliability, warranty, Weibull

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Authors: Mustafa A. Al-Refai

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This paper investigates the energy storage technologies that can potentially enhance the use of solar energy. Water electrolysis systems are seen as the principal means of producing a large amount of hydrogen in the future. Starting from the analysis of the models of the system components, a complete simulation model was realized in the Matlab-Simulink environment. Results of the numerical simulations are provided. The operation of electrolysis and photovoltaic array combination is verified at various insulation levels. It is pointed out that solar cell arrays and electrolysers are producing the expected results with solar energy inputs that are continuously varying.

Keywords: electrolyzer, simulink, solar energy, storage system

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Authors: Jihan Abdulazeez Ahmed, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani

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This paper suggests a new internal architecture of holon based on feature selection model using the combination of Bees Algorithm (BA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). BA is used to generate features while ANN is used as a classifier to evaluate the produced features. Proposed system is applied on the Wine data set, the statistical result proves that the proposed system is effective and has the ability to choose informative features with high accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, bees algorithm, feature selection, Holon

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Authors: Jayanta Kumar Mahato, Partha Sarathi De, Amrita Kundu, P. C. Chakraborti

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Ratcheting is one of the most important phenomena to be considered for design and safety assessment of structural components subjected to stress controlled asymmetric cyclic loading in the elasto-plastic domain. In the present study uniaxial ratcheting behavior of commercially pure annealed OFHC copper and aluminium with two different grain sizes has been investigated. Stress-controlled tests have been conducted at various combinations of stress amplitude and mean stress. These stresses were selected in such a way that the ratio of equivalent stress amplitude (σₐeq) to ultimate tensile strength (σUTS) of the selected materials remains constant. It is found that irrespective of grain size the ratcheting fatigue lives decrease with the increase of both stress amplitude and mean stress following power relationships. However, the effect of stress amplitude on ratcheting lives is observed higher as compared to mean stress for both the FCC metals. It is also found that for both FCC metals ratcheting fatigue lives at a constant ratio of equivalent stress amplitude (σ ₐeq) to ultimate tensile strength (σUTS) are more in case fine grain size. So far ratcheting strain rate is concerned, it decreases rapidly within first few cycles and then a steady state is reached. Finally, the ratcheting strain rate increases up to the complete failure of the specimens due to a very large increase of true stress for a substantial reduction in cross-sectional area. The steady state ratcheting strain rate increases with the increase in both stress amplitude and mean stress. Interestingly, a unique perfectly power relationship between steady state ratcheting strain rate and cycles to failure has been found irrespective of stress combination for both FCC metals. Similar to ratcheting strain rate, the strain energy density decreases rapidly within first few cycles followed by steady state and then increases up to a failure of the specimens irrespective of stress combinations for both FCC metals; but strain energy density at steady state decreases with increase in mean stress and increases with the increase of stress amplitude. From the fractography study, it is found that the void density increases with the increase of maximum stress, but the void size and void density are almost same for any combination of stress parameters considering constant maximum stress.

Keywords: ratcheting phenomena, grain size, stress parameter, ratcheting lives, ratcheting strain rate

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Authors: Sergey Chirun

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Using of a combination of institutional analysis and network access has allowed the author to identify the characteristics of the informal institutions of regional political power and political regimes. According to the author, ‘field’ of activity of post-Soviet regimes, formed under the influence of informal institutions, often contradicts democratic institutional regional changes which are aimed at creating of a legal-rational type of political domination and balanced model of separation of powers. This leads to the gap between the formal structure of institutions and the real nature of power, predetermining the specific character of the existing political regimes.

Keywords: authoritarianism, institutions, political regime, social networks, transformation

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Authors: Akimitsu Kugimiya, Kouhei Iwato, Toru Saito, Jiro Kohda, Yasuhisa Nakano, Yu Takano

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The measurement of amino acid content is reported to be useful for the diagnosis of several types of diseases, including lung cancer, gastric cancer, colorectal cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, and diabetes. The conventional detection methods for amino acid are high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS), but they have several drawbacks as the equipment is cumbersome and the techniques are costly in terms of time and costs. In contrast, biosensors and biosensing methods provide more rapid and facile detection strategies that use simple equipment. The authors have reported a novel approach for the detection of each amino acid that involved the use of aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase (aaRS) as a molecular recognition element because aaRS is expected to a selective binding ability for corresponding amino acid. The consecutive enzymatic reactions used in this study are as follows: aaRS binds to its cognate amino acid and releases inorganic pyrophosphate. Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) was produced by the enzyme reactions of inorganic pyrophosphatase and pyruvate oxidase. The Trinder’s reagent was added into the reaction mixture, and the absorbance change at 556 nm was measured using a microplate reader. In this study, an amino acid-sensing method using histidyl-tRNA synthetase (HisRS; histidine-specific aaRS) as molecular recognition element in combination with the Trinder’s reagent spectrophotometric method was developed. The quantitative performance and selectivity of the method were evaluated, and the optimal enzyme reaction and detection conditions were determined. The authors developed a simple and rapid method for detecting histidine with a combination of enzymatic reaction and spectrophotometric detection. In this study, HisRS was used to detect histidine, and the reaction and detection conditions were optimized for quantitation of these amino acids in the ranges of 1–100 µM histidine. The detection limits are sufficient to analyze these amino acids in biological fluids. This work was partly supported by Hiroshima City University Grant for Special Academic Research (General Studies).

Keywords: amino acid, aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase, biosensing, enzyme reaction

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Authors: Ali Showail Ali Alasmari

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Introduction: Cataract is the loss of transparency of the lens inside the eye. It is the most common cause of visual loss and blindness worldwide. This study provides a systemic review of the recent findings on the association of vitamin D, and vitamin B12, and their possible role in preventing cataracts in senile (S) and diabetic mellitus (DM) patient groups. Objective: This study was intended to establish and investigate if there is any role between vitamin D and vitamin B12? Secondly, the connection between serum level of vitamin D and vitamin B12 in cataract incidence senile (s) vs. diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patient groups. Furthermore, to evaluate and analyze cataract occurrence regarding vitamin D and vitamin B12 levels with other risk factors. Finally, to evaluate lens opacities pre and post treatment with vitamin D and vitaminB12 linked to age and visual acuity loss in both senile(S) and diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patients’ groups. Methods: This study conducted at the ophthalmology clinic at Muhyail General Hospital. Select a prospective case-control to study the effect of vitamin D and Vit B12 on senile(S) cataracts that caused by age and diabetic mellitus (DM)cataract patients; then we compare these two groups. This study prospectively enrolled a total of 50 samples, 25 with senile cataract and 25 with diabetic cataract, from ophthalmology clinic at Muhyail General Hospital. Measuring 25-hydroxy vitamin D and vitamin B12 level concentrations in the assigned samples. Analyses were performed using SAS (statistical analysis software) program. Results: The most important finding in this study was that the senile(s) cataract patients’ group greatly benefited by the combination therapy of vitamin D, and Vitamin B12 reached (28.5±1.50 and 521.1±21.10) respectively; on the contrary, the diabetic cataract patient group hardly shows any significant improvement (21.5 ± 1.00 and 197.2 ± 7.20) respectively. This is because of the Metformin, the first line drug for treating diabetes, has been reported to potentially decrease vitamin B-12 status. This epigenetic modification was correlated with the diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patients’ group not responding. Vitamin B12 deficiency also leads to an impairment of the conversion of methylmalonyl-CoA to succinyl-CoA, which has been associated with insulin resistance. There was no significant difference between the age, body mass index (BMI), the mean of Vit-D pre-treatments, and the mean values of Hemoglobin A1C of both senile (S) and diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patient groups. On other hand, there was a highly significant difference between the mean values of glucose levels in both senile (S) and diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patient groups. Conclusion: Here we conclude that diabetic mellitus (DM) cataract patient group hardly benefited from this combination therapy vitamin D and vitamin B12; on the other hand senile patient group (s) benefited a lot from the therapy.

Keywords: cataract patients, senile, diabetes mellitus, vitamin B12, vitamin D, Muhyail General Hospital, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Jugal K. Prajapat, Manivannan M.

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In this article we have studied a class of sense preserving harmonic mappings in the unit disk D. Let B⁰H (α, β) denote the class of sense-preserving harmonic mappings f=h+g ̅ in the open unit disk D and satisfying the condition |z h״(z)+α (h׳(z)-1) | ≤ β - |z g″(z)+α g′(z)| (α > -1, β > 0). We have proved that B⁰H (α, β) is close-to-convex in D. We also prove that the functions in B⁰H (α, β) are stable harmonic univalent, stable harmonic starlike and stable harmonic convex in D for different values of its parameters. Further, the coefficient estimates, growth results, area theorem, boundary behavior, convolution and convex combination properties of the class B⁰H (α, β) of harmonic mapping are obtained.

Keywords: analytic, univalent, starlike, convex and close-to-convex

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Authors: A. Manallah, C. Meier

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Confocal spectral interferometry (CSI) is an innovative optical method for determining microtopography of surfaces and thickness of transparent layers, based on the combination of two optical principles: confocal imaging, and spectral interferometry. Confocal optical system images at each instant a single point of the sample. The whole surface is reconstructed by plan scanning. The interference signal generated by mixing two white-light beams is analyzed using a spectrometer. In this work, five ‘rugotests’ of known standard roughnesses are investigated. The topography is then measured and illustrated, and the equivalent roughness is determined and compared with the standard values.

Keywords: confocal spectral interferometry, nondestructive testing, optical metrology, surface topography, roughness

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Authors: Firsan Nova

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The average Indonesian watches 5.5 hours of TV a day. With a population of 242 million people and a Free-to-Air (FTA) TV penetration rate of 56%, that equates to 745 million hours of television watched each day. With such potential, it is no wonder that many companies are now attempting to get into the Pay TV market. Research firm Media Partner Asia has forecast in its study that the number of Indonesian pay-television subscribers will climb from 2.4 million in 2012 to 8.7 million by 2020, with penetration scaling up from 7 percent to 21 percent. Key drivers of market growth, the study says, include macro trends built around higher disposable income and a rising middle class, with leading players continuing to invest significantly in sales, distribution and content. New entrants, in the meantime, will boost overall prospects. This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of Market Attractiveness and the Core Competence on Value Creation and Competitive Advantage and its impact to Business Performance in the pay TV industry in Indonesia. The study using strategic management science approach with the census method in which all members of the population are as sample. Verification method is used to examine the relationship between variables. The unit of analysis in this research is all Indonesian Pay TV business units totaling 19 business units. The unit of observation is the director and managers of each business unit. Hypothesis testing is performed by using statistical Partial Least Square (PLS). The conclusion of the study shows that the market attractiveness affects business performance through value creation and competitive advantage. The appropriate value creation comes from the company ability to optimize its core competence and exploit market attractiveness. Value creation affects competitive advantage. The competitive advantage can be determined based on the company's ability to create value for customers and the competitive advantage has an impact on business performance.

Keywords: market attractiveness, core competence, value creation, competitive advantage, business performance

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Authors: Michele Catalano, Jacopo Di Domenico, Luca Riccetti, Andrea Teglio

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We develop a data-driven agent based model (ABM) for the Italian economy. We calibrate the model for the initial condition and parameters. As a preliminary step, we replicate the Monte-Carlo simulation for the Austrian economy. Then, we evaluate the dynamic properties of the model: the long-run equilibrium and the allocative efficiency in terms of disequilibrium patterns arising in the search and matching process for final goods, capital, intermediate goods, and credit markets. In this perspective, we use a randomized initial condition approach. We perform a robustness analysis perturbing the system for different parameter setups. We explore the empirical properties of the model using a rolling window forecast exercise from 2010 to 2022 to observe the model’s forecasting ability in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. We perform an analysis of the properties of the model with a different number of agents, that is, with different scales of the model compared to the real economy. The model generally displays transient dynamics that properly fit macroeconomic data regarding forecasting ability. We stress the model with a large set of shocks, namely interest policy, fiscal policy, and exogenous factors, such as external foreign demand for export. In this way, we can explore the most exposed sectors of the economy. Finally, we modify the technology mix of the various sectors and, consequently, the underlying input-output sectoral interdependence to stress the economy and observe the long-run projections. In this way, we can include in the model the generation of endogenous crisis due to the implied structural change, technological unemployment, and potential lack of aggregate demand creating the condition for cyclical endogenous crises reproduced in this artificial economy.

Keywords: agent-based models, behavioral macro, macroeconomic forecasting, micro data

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Authors: A. P. Pashkov

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The number of environmental factors that adversely affect children's health is growing every year; their combination in each territory is different. The contribution of socio-economic factors to the health status of the younger generation is increasing. It is the child’s body that is most sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, responding to this with a deterioration in health. Over the past years, scientists have determined the influence of environmental factors and the incidence of children. Currently, there is a tendency to study regional characteristics of the interaction of a combination of environmental factors with the child's body. The aim of the work was to identify trends in the primary non-infectious morbidity of the children of the Altai Territory as a unique region that combines territories with different levels of environmental quality indicators, as well as to assess the effect of atmospheric air, drinking water and socio-economic indicators on the incidence of children in the region. An unfavorable tendency has been revealed in the region for incidence of such nosological groups as neoplasms, including malignant ones, diseases of the endocrine system, including obesity and thyroid disease, diseases of the circulatory system, digestive diseases, diseases of the genitourinary system, congenital anomalies, and respiratory diseases. Between some groups of diseases revealed a pattern of geographical distribution during mapping and a significant correlation. Some nosologies have a relationship with socio-economic indicators for an integrated assessment: circulatory system diseases, respiratory diseases (direct connection), endocrine system diseases, eating disorders, and metabolic disorders (feedback). The analysis of associations of the incidence of children with average annual concentrations of substances that pollute the air and drinking water showed the existence of reliable correlation in areas of critical and intense degree of environmental quality. This fact confirms that the population living in contaminated areas is subject to the negative influence of environmental factors, which immediately affects the health status of children. The results obtained indicate the need for a detailed assessment of the influence of environmental factors on the incidence of children in the regional aspect, the formation of a database, and the development of automated programs that can predict the incidence in each specific territory. This will increase the effectiveness, including economic of preventive measures.

Keywords: incidence of children, regional features, socio-economic factors, environmental factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 115