Search results for: 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Authors: Yehya Rasool, Mohit Agrawal

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The site characterization and site response analysis are the crucial steps for reliable seismic microzonation of an area. So, the basic parameters involved in these fundamental steps are required to be chosen properly in order to efficiently characterize the vulnerable sites of the study region. In this study, efforts are made to delineate the variations in the physical parameter of the soil for the summer and monsoon seasons of the year (2021) by using Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratios (HVSRs) recorded at five sites of the Indian Institute of Technology (Indian School of Mines), Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India. The data recording at each site was done in such a way that less amount of anthropogenic noise was recorded at each site. The analysis has been done for five seismic parameters like predominant frequency, H/V ratio, the phase velocity of Rayleigh waves, shear wave velocity (Vs), compressional wave velocity (Vp), and Poisson’s ratio for both the seasons of the year. From the results, it is observed that these parameters majorly vary drastically for the upper layers of soil, which in turn may affect the amplification ratios and probability of exceedance obtained from seismic hazard studies. The HVSR peak comes out to be higher in monsoon, with a shift in predominant frequency as compared to the summer season of the year 2021. Also, the drastic reduction in shear wave velocity (up to ~10 m) of approximately 7%-15% is also perceived during the monsoon period with a slight decrease in compressional wave velocity. Generally, the increase in the Poisson ratios is found to have higher values during monsoon in comparison to the summer period. Our study may be very beneficial to various agricultural and geotechnical engineering projects.

Keywords: HVSR, shear wave velocity profile, Poisson ratio, microtremor data

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Authors: Shanti Swaroop Mokkapati

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The unstruck sound, or the Anahata Nada, holds the key in elevating the consciousness levels of the practitioner. This has been well established by the great saints of the eastern tradition over the past few centuries. This paper intends to explore in-depth the common thread of the practice of Anahata Nada by the musical saints, examining the subtle mention in their compositions as well as demystifying their musical experiences that throw insights into elevated levels of consciousness. Mian Tansen, one of the greatest musicians in the North Indian Hindustani Classical Music tradition and who lived in the 15th century, is said to have brought rain through his singing of Raga Megh Malhar. The South Indian (Carnatic) Musical Saint Tyagaraja, who lived in the 18th Century, composed hundreds of musical pieces full of love for the Supreme Being. Many of these compositions unravel the secrets of Anahata Nada, the chakras in the human body that hold key to these practices, and the visions of elevated levels of consciousness that Saint Tyagaraja himself experienced through these practices. The spiritual practitioners of the Radhasoami Faith (Religion of Saints) in Dayalbagh, India, have adopted a practice called Surat Shabda Yoga (Meditational practices that unite the all-pervasive sound current with the spirit current and elevate levels of consciousness). The practitioners of this Yogic method submit that they have been able to hear mystic words including Om, Racing, Soham, Sat, and Radhasoami, along with instrumental sounds that accompany these mystic words in the form of a crescendo. These prolific experiences of elevated consciousness of musical saints are numerous, and this paper intends to explore more significant ones from many centuries in the past till the present day, where elevated consciousness levels of practitioners are being scientifically measured and analyzed using quantum computing.

Keywords: Anahata Nada, Nada Yoga, Tyagaraja, Radhasoami

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Authors: Monika Saha, A. T. M. Hasan Zobeyer, Nasreen Jahan

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El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the interaction between atmosphere and ocean in tropical Pacific which causes inconsistent warm/cold weather in tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Due to the impact of climate change, ENSO events are becoming stronger in recent times, and therefore it is very important to study the influence of ENSO in climate studies. Bangladesh, being in the low-lying deltaic floodplain, experiences the worst consequences due to flooding every year. To reduce the catastrophe of severe flooding events, non-structural measures such as flood forecasting can be helpful in taking adequate precautions and steps. Forecasting seasonal flood with a longer lead time of several months is a key component of flood damage control and water management. The objective of this research is to identify the possible strength of teleconnection between ENSO and river flow of Surma and examine the potential possibility of long lead flood forecasting in the wet season. Surma is one of the major rivers of Bangladesh and is a part of the Surma-Meghna river system. In this research, sea surface temperature (SST) has been considered as the ENSO index and the lead time is at least a few months which is greater than the basin response time. The teleconnection has been assessed by the correlation analysis between July-August-September (JAS) flow of Surma and SST of Nino 4 region of the corresponding months. Cumulative frequency distribution of standardized JAS flow of Surma has also been determined as part of assessing the possible teleconnection. Discharge data of Surma river from 1975 to 2015 is used in this analysis, and remarkable increased value of correlation coefficient between flow and ENSO has been observed from 1985. From the cumulative frequency distribution of the standardized JAS flow, it has been marked that in any year the JAS flow has approximately 50% probability of exceeding the long-term average JAS flow. During El Nino year (warm episode of ENSO) this probability of exceedance drops to 23% and while in La Nina year (cold episode of ENSO) it increases to 78%. Discriminant analysis which is known as 'Categoric Prediction' has been performed to identify the possibilities of long lead flood forecasting. It has helped to categorize the flow data (high, average and low) based on the classification of predicted SST (warm, normal and cold). From the discriminant analysis, it has been found that for Surma river, the probability of a high flood in the cold period is 75% and the probability of a low flood in the warm period is 33%. A synoptic parameter, forecasting index (FI) has also been calculated here to judge the forecast skill and to compare different forecasts. This study will help the concerned authorities and the stakeholders to take long-term water resources decisions and formulate policies on river basin management which will reduce possible damage of life, agriculture, and property.

Keywords: El Nino-Southern Oscillation, sea surface temperature, surma river, teleconnection, cumulative frequency distribution, discriminant analysis, forecasting index

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Authors: Avanika Gupta

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Education plays a significant and remedial role in balancing the socio-economic fabric of a country. Inclusive education is considered as the most appropriate mode of teaching students with hearing impairment (SwHI) by various national and international legislations. But inclusive education is still an evolving concept among the disability studies scholars and policy makers in India. The study aimed to examine accessibility of SwHI in mainstream schools if there are special provisions for SwHI. The study also intended to identify if the provisions are same for deaf and hard-of-hearing students. Using stratified random sampling technique, a school was selected from each of the six administrative zones of Nagpur city. All the selected schools had primary and secondary level education and were co-educational in nature. Interview with principals of these schools and focused-group- observation method showcased lack of accessibility for SwHI in attending schools. Not even a single school had a hearing impaired student, either deaf or hard-of-hearing depicting the double marginalization of SwHI. This is despite the fact that the right to education is a fundamental right in India, and national legislation on disability has special provisions for ensuring educational opportunities to SwHI. None of the schools even had an Indian Sign Language (ISL) instructor. Both observations seemed cause and effect of one another. One of the principals informed that they have seats for all students with disabilities but they usually lie vacant due to lack of awareness among the parents. One school had 2 students with locomotive impairment while another had a student with visual impairment. Principals of two special schools were also interviewed to understand the reason behind the low enrollment rate of SwHI in mainstream schools. Guardian preference, homogeneity, relatable faculty, familiar environment were some of the chief reasons mentioned. Few suggestions for the policymakers, teachers, guardians and the students are also recommended so that Indian education system could become inclusive in true sense.

Keywords: deaf, hard-of-hearing, inclusive education, India, Nagpur, students with hearing impairment

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Authors: Nishi Malhotra

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Art has developed as a mode of investment and saving. Art and culture of any nation is the source of foreign direct investment (FDI) generation and growth development. Several intermediaries and skill-building organizations thrive on at and culture for their earnings. Indian art market has grown to Rs. 2000 Crores. Art establishment houses access to privileged information is the main reason for arbitrariness and volatility in the market. The commercialization of art and development of the markets with refinement in the taste of the customers have led to the development of art as an investment avenue. Investors keen on investing in these products can do so, and earnings from art are taxable too, like any other capital asset. This research paper is aimed at exploring the role of art and culture as an investment avenue in India and reasons for increasing volatilities in the art market. Based on an extensive literature review and secondary research, a benchmarking study has been conducted to capture the growth of the art as an investment avenue. These studies indicate that during the financial crisis of 2008-10, the art emerged as an alternative investment avenue. The paper aims at discussing the financial engineering of various art funds and instruments. Based on secondary data available from Sotheby’s, Christies, Bonham, there is a positive correlation between strategic diversification and increasing return in the Art market. Similarly, digitization has led to disintermediation in the art markets and also helped to increase the market base. The data clearly enumerates the growing interest of the Indian investor towards art as an investment option. Much like any other broad asset class, art market too thrives on excess returns provided by diversification. Many financial intermediaries and art funds have emerged, to offer valuable investment planning advisory to a genuine investor. This paper clearly highlights the increasing returns of strategic diversification and its impact on reducing volatility in the art markets. Moreover, with coming up of e-auctions and websites, investors are able to analyse art more objectively. Digitization and commercialization of art have definitely helped in reducing volatility in world art markets.

Keywords: art, investment avenue, diversification, digitization

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Authors: Saima Sharif Nilla, Mahmudur Rahman Khan, Anisur Rahman Khan, Ghulam Mustafa1

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The microbial quality of Indian white shrimp (Peneaus indicus) from Bagerhat, Khulna and Satkhira of southwest Bangladesh was assessed where the parameters varied with different sources and the quality was found to be poor for Satkhira shrimp samples. Shrimp samples in fresh condition were collected to perform the microbial assessment and 10 pathogenic isolates for antibiotic sensitivity test to 12 antibiotics. The results show that total bacterial count of all the samples were beyond the acceptable limit 105 cfu/g. In case of total coliform and E. coli density, no substantial difference (p<0.5) was found between the different shrimp samples from different districts and also high quantity of TC exceeding the limit (>102 cfu/g) proves the poor quality of shrimp. The FC abundance found in shrimps of Bagerhat and Satkhira was similar and significantly higher (p<0.5) than that of Khulna samples. No significant difference (p<0.5) was found among the high density of Salmonella-Shigella, Vibrio spp., and Staphylococcus spp. of the shrimp samples from the source places. In case of antibiotic sensitivity patterns, all of them were resistant to ampicillin, Penicillin and sensitive to kanamycin. Most of the isolates were frequently sensitive to ciprofloxacin and streptomycin in the sensitivity test. In case of nutritional composition, no significant difference (t-test, p<0.05) was found among protein, lipid, moisture and ash contents of shrimp samples. The findings prove that shrimp under this study was more or less contaminated and samples from Satkhira were highly privileged with food borne pathogens which confirmed the unhygienic condition of the shrimp farms as well as the presence of antibiotic resistance bacteria in shrimp fish supposed to threat food safety and deteriorate the export quality.

Keywords: food borne pathogens, satkhira, penaeus indicus, antibiotic sensitivity, southwest Bangladesh, food safety

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Authors: J. Winkler, S. Chovancová

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The article deals with the relation between rainfall in selected months and subsequent weed infestation of spring barley. The field experiment was performed at Mendel University agricultural enterprise in Žabčice, Czech Republic. Weed infestation was measured in spring barley vegetation in years 2004 to 2012. Barley was grown in three tillage variants: conventional tillage technology (CT), minimization tillage technology (MT), and no tillage (NT). Precipitation was recorded in one-day intervals. Monthly precipitation was calculated from the measured values in the months of October through to April. The technique of canonical correspondence analysis was applied for further statistical processing. 41 different species of weeds were found in the course of the 9-year monitoring period. The results clearly show that precipitation affects the incidence of most weed species in the selected months, but acts differently in the monitored variants of tillage technologies.

Keywords: weeds, precipitation, tillage, weed infestation forecast

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Authors: Sanskriti Singh, Ankit Tomar

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Banks are the instrument of growth of a country. Banks mobilize the savings of the public in the form of deposits and channelize it as advances for various activities required for the development of society at large. The advance which becomes unpaid for a certain period is called Non Performing Asset of the bank. The study makes an attempt to bring out the magnitude of NPA and its impact on profit, advances. An attempt is also made to bring out the challenges NPA poses to the banks and suggestions to overcome and to manage NPA effectively.

Keywords: India, NPAs, private banks, public banks

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Authors: Sheikh Nawaz Ali, Pratima Pandey, P. Morthekai, Jyotsna Dubey, Md. Firoze Quamar

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The high mountain glaciers are one of the most sensitive recorders of climate changes, because they have the tendency to respond to the combined effect of snow fall and temperature. The Himalayan glaciers have been studied with a good pace during the last decade. However, owing to its large ecological diversity and geographical vividness, major part of the Indian Himalaya is uninvestigated, and hence the palaeoclimatic patterns as well as the chronology of past glaciations in particular remain controversial for the entire Indian Himalayan transect. Although the Himalayan glaciers are nourished by two important climatic systems viz. the southwest summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerlies, however, the influence of these systems is yet to be understood. Nevertheless, existing chronology (mostly exposure ages) indicate that irrespective of the geographical position, glaciers seem to grow during enhanced Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The Himalayan mountain glaciers are referred to the third pole or water tower of Asia as they form a huge reservoir of the fresh water supplies for the Asian countries. Mountain glaciers are sensitive probes of the local climate, and, thus, they present an opportunity and a challenge to interpret climates of the past as well as to predict future changes. The principle object of all the palaeoclimatic studies is to develop a futuristic models/scenario. However, it has been found that the glacial chronologies bracket the major phases of climatic events only, and other climatic proxies are sparse in Himalaya. This is the reason that compilation of data for rapid climatic change during the Holocene shows major gaps in this region. The sedimentation in proglacial lakes, conversely, is more continuous and, hence, can be used to reconstruct a more complete record of past climatic variability that is modulated by changing ice volume of the valley glacier. The Himalayan region has numerous proglacial lacustrine deposits formed during the late Quaternary period. However, there are only few such deposits which have been studied so far. Therefore, this is the high time when efforts have to be made to systematically map the moraines located in different climatic zones, reconstruct the local and regional moraine stratigraphy and use multiple dating techniques to bracket the events of glaciation. Besides this, emphasis must be given on carrying multiproxy studies on the lacustrine sediments that will provide a high resolution palaeoclimatic data from the alpine region of the Himalaya. Although the Himalayan glaciers fluctuated in accordance with the changing climatic conditions (natural forcing), however, it is too early to arrive at any conclusion. It is very crucial to generate multiproxy data sets covering wider geographical and ecological domains taking into consideration multiple parameters that directly or indirectly influence the glacier mass balance as well as the local climate of a region.

Keywords: glacial chronology, palaeoclimate, multiproxy, Himalaya

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Authors: Hemalatha Jain, M. Vasantha

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Patteda Anchu is one of the first variety of sari woven centuries ago in Gajendragarh village from Gadag district of north Karnataka. The sari played a significant role in bringing together the socio-cultural aspect in ancient days. It was used as wedding sari for bride and also to adorn goddess Yellamma Saundatti by the devotees. Indian traditional art and crafts were rich in culture and diversity, however with the onset of liberalisation and end of the license raj lot of traditional Indian artwork are on the verge of extinction today. Patteda Anchu is one of the examples of traditional art lost to globalisation. The main aim of the study was to document the ancient weaving tradition of the Patteda Anchu and revive by exploring the weaving possibility as yardage with different product layout. To accomplish the formulated objectives a exploratory cum diagnostic study was planned. Data was collected through observations and interviews schedule during the field visits in Gajendragarh village. There are very few weavers weaving on traditional looms and many weavers who have moved to weaving other sari's or construction work were interviewed to understand the downfall of the sari. The discussions and interviews conducted with the local weavers, shop keepers, sales agents, weaving society, NGOs and Self help groups helped in unearthing the new opportunities to develop products for the local and national market and help start weaving of Patteda Anchu and expand its market. The handloom art details in terms of raw materials, loom set up, dyeing, types of Patteda Anchu, weaving process and colors were documented through photographs, video recordings and supplemented with notes. Based on the analysis of the feedback gathered it was recommended to develop products on the handloom without changing the width frame or design of the traditional weaving methods. The weavers, weavers society and other cooperatives centres also were in consent with the new product development which will help sustain the Patteda Anchu.

Keywords: Gajendragarh, patteda Anchu sari, revival of traditional art, weaving, handloom

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Authors: Kamlesh Shashikant Dave

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The global financial crisis is rooted in the sub-prime crisis in U.S.A. During the boom years, mortgage brokers attracted by the big commission, encouraged buyers with poor credit to accept housing mortgages with little or no down payment and without credit check. A combination of low interest rates and large inflow of foreign funds during the booming years helped the banks to create easy credit conditions for many years. Banks lent money on the assumptions that housing price would continue to rise. Also the real estate bubble encouraged the demand for houses as financial assets .Banks and financial institutions later repackaged these debts with other high risk debts and sold them to worldwide investors creating financial instruments called collateral debt obligations (CDOs). With the rise in interest rate, mortgage payments rose and defaults among the subprime category of borrowers increased accordingly. Through the securitization of mortgage payments, a recession developed in the housing sector and consequently it was transmitted to the entire US economy and rest of the world. The financial credit crisis has moved the US and the global economy into recession. Indian economy has also affected by the spill over effects of the global financial crisis. Great saving habit among people, strong fundamentals, strong conservative and regulatory regime have saved Indian economy from going out of gear, though significant parts of the economy have slowed down. Industrial activity, particularly in the manufacturing and infrastructure sectors decelerated. The service sector too, slow in construction, transport, trade, communication, hotels and restaurants sub sectors. The financial crisis has some adverse impact on the IT sector. Exports had declined in absolute terms in October. Higher inputs costs and dampened demand have dented corporate margins while the uncertainty surrounding the crisis has affected business confidence. To summarize, reckless subprime lending, loose monetary policy of US, expansion of financial derivatives beyond acceptable norms and greed of Wall Street has led to this exceptional global financial and economic crisis. Thus, the global credit crisis of 2008 highlights the need to redesign both the global and domestic financial regulatory systems not only to properly address systematic risk but also to support its proper functioning (i.e financial stability).Such design requires: 1) Well managed financial institutions with effective corporate governance and risk management system 2) Disclosure requirements sufficient to support market discipline. 3)Proper mechanisms for resolving problem institution and 4) Mechanisms to protect financial services consumers in the event of financial institutions failure.

Keywords: FIIs, BSE, sensex, global impact

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Authors: SHWETA SRIKUMAR

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Winter stratospheric dynamics is a highly variable and spectacular field of research in middle atmosphere. It is well believed that the interaction of energetic planetary waves with mean flow causes the temperature to increase in the stratosphere and associated circulation reversal. This wave driven sudden disturbances in the polar stratosphere is defined as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. The main objective of the present work is to investigate the mid-winter major stratospheric warming events on equatorial dynamics over Peninsular India. To explore the effect of mid-winter stratospheric warming on Indian region (60oE -100oE), we have selected the winters 2003/04, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2012/13 and 2018/19. This study utilized the data from ERA-Interim Reanalysis, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from NOAA and TRMM satellite data from NASA mission. It is observed that a sudden drop in OLR (averaged over Indian Region) occurs during the course of warming for the winters 2005/06, 2008/09 and 2018/19. But in winters 2003/04 and 2012/13, drop in OLR happens prior to the onset of major warming. Significant amplitude of planetary wave activity is observed in equatorial lower stratosphere which indicates the propagation of extra-tropical planetary waves from high latitude to equator. During the course of warming, a strong downward propagation of EP flux convergence is observed from polar to equator region. The polar westward wind reaches upto 20oN and the weak eastward wind dominates the equator during the winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2018/19. But in 2012/13 winter, polar westward wind reaches upto equator. The equatorial wind at 2008/09 is dominated by strong westward wind. Further detailed results will be presented in the conference.

Keywords: Equatorial dynamics, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Planetary Waves

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Authors: Murari Prasad

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This paper is motivated by the implications of indentured migration depicted in Amitav Ghosh’s critically acclaimed novel, Sea of Poppies (2008). Ghosh’s perspective on the experiences of North Indian indentured labourers moving from their homeland to a distant and unknown location across the seas suggests a radical attitudinal change among the migrants on board the Ibis, a schooner chartered to carry the recruits from Calcutta to Mauritius in the late 1830s. The novel unfolds the life-altering trauma of the bonded servants, including their efforts to maintain a sense of self while negotiating significant social and cultural transformations during the voyage which leads to the breakdown of familiar life-worlds. Equally, the migrants are introduced to an alternative network of relationships to ensure their survival away from land. They relinquish their entrenched beliefs and prejudices and commit themselves to a new brotherhood formed by ‘ship siblings.’ With the official abolition of direct slavery in 1833, the supply of cheap labour to the sugar plantation in British colonies as far-flung as Mauritius and Fiji to East Africa and the Caribbean sharply declined. Around the same time, China’s attempt to prohibit the illegal importation of opium from British India into China threatened the lucrative opium trade. To run the ever-profitable plantation colonies with cheap labour, Indian peasants, wrenched from their village economies, were indentured to plantations as girmitiyas (vernacularized from ‘agreement’) by the colonial government using the ploy of an optional form of recruitment. After the British conquest of the Isle of France in 1810, Mauritius became Britain’s premier sugar colony bringing waves of Indian immigrants to the island. In the articulations of their subjectivities one notices how the recruits cope with the alienating drudgery of indenture, mitigate the hardships of the voyage and forge new ties with pragmatic acts of cultural syncretism in a forward-looking autonomous community of ‘ship-siblings’ following the fracture of traditional identities. This paper tests the hypothesis that Ghosh envisions a kind of futuristic/utopian political collectivity in a hierarchically rigid, racially segregated and identity-obsessed world. In order to ground the claim and frame the complex representations of alliance and love across the boundaries of caste, religion, gender and nation, the essential methodology here is a close textual analysis of the novel. This methodology will be geared to explicate the utopian futurity that the novel gestures towards by underlining new regulations of life during voyage and dissolution of multiple differences among the indentured migrants on board the Ibis.

Keywords: indenture, colonial, opium, sugar plantation

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Authors: J. J. Mathew

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Pulmonary tuberculosis is highly prevalent in the Indian subcontinent. Most cases of pulmonary tuberculosis are diagnosed with sputum examinations and the vast majority of these are undertaken by the government run establishments. However, mycobacterial cultures are not routinely done, unless drug resistance is detected based on clinical response. Modern diagnostic tests like bronchoscopy and Genexpert are not routinely employed in the government institutions for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis, but have been accepted widely by good private institutions. The utility of these investigations in the private sector is not yet well recognized. This retrospective study aims to assess the usefulness of bronchoscopy and Genexpert in the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in quaternary care private hospital in India. 30 patients with respiratory symptoms raising the possibility of tuberculosis based on clinical and radiological features, but without any significant sputum production, were subject to bronchoscopy and BAL samples taken for microbiological studies, including Genexpert. 6 out of the 30 patients were found to be Genexpert positive and none of them showed Rifampicin resistance. All the 6 cases had upper zone predominant disease. One of the 6 cases of tuberculosis had another co-existent bacterial infection according to the routine culture studies. 6 other cases were proven to be due to other bacterial infections alone, 2 had a malignant diagnosis and the remaining cases were thought to be non-infective pathologies. The Genexpert results were made available within 48 hours in the 6 positive cases. All of them were commenced on standard anti-tuberculous regimen with excellent clinical response. The other infective cases were also managed successfully based on the drug susceptibilities. The study has shown the usefulness of these investigations as early intervention enabled diagnosis facilitating treatment and prevention of any clinical deterioration. The study lends support to early bronchoscopy and Genexpert testing in suspected cases of pulmonary tuberculosis without significant sputum production, in a high prevalence country which normally relies on sputum examination for the diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis.

Keywords: pulmonary, tuberculosis, bronchoscopy, genexpert

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Authors: Niharul Alam

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The development of energy efficient, economic and eco-friendly synthetic protocols for metal nanoparticles (NPs) with tailor-made structural properties and biocompatibility is a highly cherished goal for researchers working in the field of nanoscience and nanotechnology. In this context, green chemistry is highly relevant and the 12 principles of Green Chemistry can be explored to develop such synthetic protocols which are practically implementable. One of the most promising green chemical synthetic methods which can serve the purpose is biogenic synthetic protocol, which utilizes non-toxic multifunctional reactants derived from natural, biological sources ranging from unicellular organisms to higher plants that are often characterized as “medicinal plants”. Over the past few years, a plethora of medicinal plants have been explored as the source of this kind of multifunctional green chemical agents. In this presentation, we focus on the syntheses of stable monometallic Au and Ag NPs and also bimetallic Au/Ag alloy NPs with highly efficient catalytic property using aqueous extract of leaves of Indian Curry leaf plat (Murraya koenigii Spreng.; Fam. Rutaceae) as green multifunctional agents which is extensively used in Indian traditional medicine and cuisine. We have also studied the interaction between the synthesized metal NPs and surface-adsorbed fluorescent moieties, quercetin and quercetin glycoside which are its chemical constituents. This helped us to understand the surface property of the metal NPs synthesized by this plant based biogenic route and to predict a plausible mechanistic pathway which may help in fine-tuning green chemical methods for the controlled synthesis of various metal NPs in future. We observed that simple experimental parameters e.g. pH and temperature of the reaction medium, concentration of multifunctional agent and precursor metal ions play important role in the biogenic synthesis of Au NPs with finely tuned structures.

Keywords: green multifunctional agent, metal nanoparticles, biogenic synthesis

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Authors: Mehar Pruthi, Manjula V.

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For the longest time, Indian households have been hosts to a variety of domestic evils such as intimate partner violence, physical abuse, sexual assaults, and more commonly gender-based violence. The prevalence of such heinous acts against women is often swept under the carpet of patriarchy and leaves women scarred. Many times, these wounds are caused by more insidious and subtle acts of violence. For this study, the choice of term for these acts is Emotional Abuse. The ill effects of emotional abuse on the victim’s sense of self and psychological health have been widely established. The current study takes a qualitative approach to explore women’s experiences at the brunt of emotional abuse. To this end, six participants (N=6) were identified using purposive and snowball sampling which was followed by a pre-screening form to assess for the presence of emotional abuse. A semi-structured interview guide was employed to investigate the victim’s perception of emotional abuse, the manifestation of emotional abuse in a patriarchal society, and the reasons women remain in abusive relationships. Each interview lasted about 50-60 mins and was accompanied by extensive note-making. A preliminary analysis of the interviews was done using the Interpretative Phenomenological Approach. Initial findings reveal the emergence of themes such as feelings of loneliness, intergenerational transmission of violence, denial, justifying the partner’s behavior, staying because of children, hoping things would change, and faith in God. The study is instrumental in conceptualizing the patterns of emotional abuse keeping in mind the patriarchal context of the Indian society. It has implications for professionals in the mental health field who work with this population so they can better understand their plight. Future research could focus on rebuilding relationships for those partners who decide to sustain such relationships and focus on various coping mechanisms with special emphasis on religious beliefs.

Keywords: emotional abuse, gender-based violence, intimate partner violence, marriage, patriarchy

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Authors: Michael S. Goodman

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The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has been the senior most analytical body in the UK since its creation in 1936. At various points in its history, most notably and recently in 2004, in the wake of the Iraq war, questions have been asked about its analytical process. In 1968 the British intelligence community saw one of its biggest transformations: the creation of an independent, central cadre of analysts. The ‘Assessments Staff’ was a novel attempt to improve the quality of analysis by fostering independence from departmental biases that had long plagued British intelligence. Seconded into the Cabinet Office, staff were allocated a ‘desk,’ and their role was to produce high level assessments for the most senior readers in the land. At the same time, efforts were made to ‘professionalise’ the analysts. This paper is based on a detailed archival examination of the JIC’s documentary files. It will recount the reasons behind this organisational reform, what the changes entailed, and whether they were a success. The changes were immediately brought to bear with the intelligence assessments prior to the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, something that the JIC failed to appreciate.

Keywords: intelligence, cold war history, analysis, united kingdom

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Authors: Sheikh Saeed Ahmad

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Electricity is vital for any state’s development that needs policy for planning the power network extension. This study is about simulation modeling for electricity in Balochistan province. Baseline data of electricity consumption was used of year 2004 and projected with the help of LEAP model up to subsequent 30 years. Three scenarios were created to run software. One scenario was baseline and other two were alternative or green scenarios i.e. solar and wind energy scenarios. Present study revealed that Balochistan has much greater potential for solar and wind energy for electricity production. By adopting these alternative energy forms, Balochistan can save energy in future nearly 23 and 48% by incorporating solar and wind power respectively. Thus, the study suggests to government planners, an aspect of integrating renewable sources in power system for ensuring sustainable development and growth.

Keywords: demand and supply, LEAP, solar energy, wind energy, households

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Authors: Luis Gimeno, Rosmeri da Rocha, Raquel Nieto, Tercio Ambrizzi, Alex Ramos, Anita Drumond

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The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents represents the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, forming the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. In this regard two large scale dynamical/meteorological structures appear to play a key role, namely Low Level Jet (LLJ) systems and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The former are particularly important in tropical and subtropical regions; the latter is mostly confined to extratropical regions. A key question relates to the anomalies in the transport of moisture observed during natural hazards related to extremes of precipitation (i.e., drought or wet spells). In this study we will be focused on these two major atmospheric moisture transport mechanisms (LLJs and ARs) and its role in precipitation extreme events (droughts and wet spells) in the Amazonia paying particular attention to i) intensification (decreasing) of moisture transport by them and its role in wet spells (droughts), and ii) changes in their positions and occurrence with associated flooding and wet spells.

Keywords: droughts, wet spells, amazonia, LLJs, atmospheric rivers

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Authors: Sudip Kumar Kundu, Charu Singh

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As a great physiographic divide, the Himalayas affecting a large system of water and air circulation which helps to determine the climatic condition in the Indian subcontinent to the south and mid-Asian highlands to the north. It creates obstacles by defending chill continental air from north side into India in winter and also defends rain-bearing southwesterly monsoon to give up maximum precipitation in that area in monsoon season. Nowadays extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation, cloudburst, flash flood, landslide and extreme avalanches are the regular happening incidents in the region of North Western Himalayan (NWH). The present study has been planned to investigate the suitable model(s) to find out the rainfall pattern over that region. For this investigation, selected models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) has been utilized in a consistent framework for the period of 1976 to 2000 (historical). The ability of these driving models from CORDEX domain and CMIP5 has been examined according to their capability of the spatial distribution as well as time series plot of rainfall over NWH in the rainy season and compared with the ground-based Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data set. It is noted from the analysis that the models like MIROC5 and MPI-ESM-LR from the both CORDEX and CMIP5 provide the best spatial distribution of rainfall over NWH region. But the driving models from CORDEX underestimates the daily rainfall amount as compared to CMIP5 driving models as it is unable to capture daily rainfall data properly when it has been plotted for time series (TS) individually for the state of Uttarakhand (UK) and Himachal Pradesh (HP). So finally it can be said that the driving models from CMIP5 are better than CORDEX domain models to investigate the rainfall pattern over NWH region.

Keywords: global warming, rainfall, CMIP5, CORDEX, NWH

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Authors: Mingbao Chen

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After Rio+20, the blue economy rises all over the world, and it has become the focus field of national development. At present, the blue economy has become a new growth point in the field of global economy and the direction of the development of ‘green’ in the ocean. However, in fact, the key factors affecting the development of the blue economy have not been explored in depth, and the development policies and performance of the blue economy have not been scientifically evaluated. This cannot provide useful guidance for the development of the blue economy. Therefore, it is urgent to establish a quantitative evaluation framework to measure the performance of the blue economic development. Based on the full understanding of the connotation and elements of the blue economy, and studying the literature, this article has built an universality and operability evaluation index system, including ecological environment, social justice, sustainable growth, policy measures, and so on. And this article also established a sound evaluation framework of blue economic development performance. At the same time, this article takes China as a sample to test the framework of the adaptability, and to assess the performance of China's blue economic.

Keywords: Blue economy, development performance, evaluation framework, assess method

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Authors: Sumita Srivastava

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Despite several measures taken by the Government of India, entrepreneurship is still not perceived as a viable career option by the young generation. Although the rate of startups has improved a little after the penetration of e portals as business platforms, still the numbers are not very significant. It is also important to note that entrepreneurial initiatives are mostly taken up by graduates of premier institutions of India like Indian Institute of Technology (IITs) and Indian Institute of Management (IIMs). The scenario is not very satisfactory amongst the masses graduating from mainstream universities of the country. Indian youth at large are not attracted towards entrepreneurship as a career choice. The reason probably lies in the social fabric of the country and inappropriate education system which does not support the entrepreneurship at large amongst youth in the country. Education is critical to the development of an economy from the poverty level to the level of self-sustenance and development. The current curriculum in the majority of business schools in India prepares the average graduate to become employed by the available firms or business owners in society. For graduates in other streams, employment opportunities are very limited. The aim of this study was to identify and design entrepreneurship education contents to encourage undergraduates to pursue entrepreneurship as a career choice. This comprehensive study was conducted in multiple stages. Extensive research was conducted at each stage with an appropriate methodology. These stages of the project study were interconnected with each other, and each preceding stage provided inputs for the following stage of the study. In the first stage of the study, an empirical analysis was conducted to understand the current state of entrepreneurial intentions of undergraduates of Agra city. Various stakeholders were contacted at the stage, including students (n = 500), entrepreneurs (n = 20) and academicians and field experts (n = 10). At the second stage of the project study, a systems science technique, Nominal Group Technique (NGT) was used to identify the critical elements of entrepreneurship education in India based upon the findings of stage 1. The application of the Nominal Group Technique involved a workshop format; 15 domain experts participated in the workshop. Throughout the process, a democratic process was followed to avoid individual dominance and premature focusing on a single idea. The study obtained 63 responses from experts for effective entrepreneurship education in India. The responses were reduced to seven elements after a few thematic iterations. These elements were then segregated into content (knowledge, skills and attitude) and learning interaction on the basis of experts’ responses. After identifying critical elements of entrepreneurship education in the previous stage, the course was designed and validated at stage 3 of the project. Scientific methods were used at this stage to validate the curriculum contents and training interventions experimentally. The educational and training interventions designed through this study would not only help in developing entrepreneurial intentions but also creating skills relevant to the local entrepreneurial opportunities in the vicinity.

Keywords: curriculum design, entrepreneurial intention, entrepreneuship education, nominal group technique

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Authors: Lubna Azmi, Ila Shukla, Shyam Sundar Gupta, Padam Kant, Ch. V. Rao

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Gastric ulcer is a major global health threat, and it is the leading cause of stomach cancer death worldwide. Helicobacter pylori bacteriumis the most important etiologic factor for gastric ulcer. This infection is highly pervasive in South Asian developing countries, especially in India, Nepal, Srilanka etc. due to diversification in geographic area. Pathophysiology of gastric mucosal damage associated with non-invasive bacterium has not justified in detail, but it leads to change in histopathology, immunochemistry of the gastric and duodenal reason of host. The mechanism responsible for bacteria tissue tropism and mucosal damage in stomach variance during the disease is not clearly described and understood scientifically in treatment and control of pathogenic organisms. Polyphenols are secondary metabolites of plants and are generally involved in defense against aggression by pathogens. 2-(3,4-dihydroxyphenyl)-3,5,7-trihydroxychromen-4-one and 1-hydroxy-5,7-dimethoxy-2-naphthalene-carboxaldehyde are polyphenolic compound obtained from popular Indian medicinal plants ghavpatta (ArgeriaspeciosaLinn.f) andBael (Aeglemarmelos) have long been used in traditional Ayurvedic Indian medicine for various diseases. They have promising effects on ulcer, as detailed investigation has made in our laboratory. Therefore, the aim of present study is to explore membrane –dependent morphogenesis of H. pylori and associated apoptosis-mediated cell death. Based on this we analyzed immune gene expression in stomach of experimental animals with H. pylori, using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction(q RT-PCR). This revealed rapid induction of prostaglandin, interferon I (INF-I), interferon II (INF-II) and INF-I associated genes in the infected animal. Ultrastructural changes associated with H. pylori will be taken for advanced studies. This investigation shows that the biomarkers eradicate H. pylori bacterium caused gastric ulcer which is a major risk factor for gastric cancer.

Keywords: gastric ulcer, Helicobacter pylori, immunochemistry, polyphenols

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Authors: Yuzhi Cai

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In this paper, we introduce a newly developed quantile function model that can be used for estimating conditional distributions of financial returns and for obtaining multi-step ahead out-of-sample predictive distributions of financial returns. Since we forecast the whole conditional distributions, any predictive quantity of interest about the future financial returns can be obtained simply as a by-product of the method. We also show an application of the model to the daily closing prices of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) series over the period from 2 January 2004 - 8 October 2010. We obtained the predictive distributions up to 15 days ahead for the DJIA returns, which were further compared with the actually observed returns and those predicted from an AR-GARCH model. The results show that the new model can capture the main features of financial returns and provide a better fitted model together with improved mean forecasts compared with conventional methods. We hope this talk will help audience to see that this new model has the potential to be very useful in practice.

Keywords: DJIA, financial returns, predictive distribution, quantile function model

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Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar

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Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization

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Authors: Shanlong Lu, Jiming Jin, Xiaochun Wang

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The Tibetan Plateau has the largest number of inland lakes with the highest elevation on the planet. These massive and large lakes are mostly in natural state and are less affected by human activities. Their shrinking or expansion can truly reflect regional climate and environmental changes and are sensitive indicators of global climate change. However, due to the sparsely populated nature of the plateau and the poor natural conditions, it is difficult to effectively obtain the change data of the lake, which has affected people's understanding of the temporal and spatial processes of lake water changes and their influencing factors. By using the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) MOD09Q1 surface reflectance images as basic data, this study produced the 8-day lake water surface data set of the Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2012 at 250 m spatial resolution, with a lake water surface extraction method of combined with lake water surface boundary buffer analyzing and lake by lake segmentation threshold determining. Then based on the dataset, the lake water surface variations and their influencing factors were analyzed, by using 4 typical natural geographical zones of Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai, Qiangtang, and Southern Tibet, and the watersheds of the top 10 lakes of Qinghai, Siling Co, Namco, Zhari NamCo, Tangra Yumco, Ngoring, UlanUla, Yamdrok Tso, Har and Gyaring as the analysis units. The accuracy analysis indicate that compared with water surface data of the 134 sample lakes extracted from the 30 m Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper ) images, the average overall accuracy of the lake water surface data set is 91.81% with average commission and omission error of 3.26% and 5.38%; the results also show strong linear (R2=0.9991) correlation with the global MODIS water mask dataset with overall accuracy of 86.30%; and the lake area difference between the Second National Lake Survey and this study is only 4.74%, respectively. This study provides reliable dataset for the lake change research of the plateau in the recent decade. The change trends and influencing factors analysis indicate that the total water surface area of lakes in the plateau showed overall increases, but only lakes with areas larger than 10 km2 had statistically significant increases. Furthermore, lakes with area larger than 100 km2 experienced an abrupt change in 2005. In addition, the annual average precipitation of Southern Tibet and Southern Qinghai experienced significant increasing and decreasing trends, and corresponding abrupt changes in 2004 and 2006, respectively. The annual average temperature of Southern Tibet and Qiangtang showed a significant increasing trend with an abrupt change in 2004. The major reason for the lake water surface variation in Eastern Qinghai and Qilian, Southern Qinghai and Southern Tibet is the changes of precipitation, and that for Qiangtang is the temperature variations.

Keywords: lake water surface variation, MODIS MOD09Q1, remote sensing, Tibetan Plateau

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Authors: Kaveri Dutta, Ratna Sharma

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Indian traditional textile is a synthesis of various cultures. Art and crafts of a country showcases the rich cultural and artistic history of that nation. Prehistorically Indian handicrafts were basically made for day to day use; the yearning for aesthetic application soon saw the development of flooding designs and motifs. Similarly, Bagh print a traditional hand block Print with natural colours an Indian handicraft practiced in Bagh, Madhya Pradesh(India). Bagh print has its roots in Sindh, which is now a part of Pakistan. The present form of Bagh printing actually started in 1962 when the craftsmen migrated from Manavar to the neighboring town of Bagh situated in Madhya Pradesh and hence Bagh has always been associated with this printing style. Bagh printing basically involved blocks that are carved onto motifs that represent flora such as Jasmine, Mushroom leheriya and so on. There are some prints that were inspired by the jaali work that embellished the Taj Mahal and various other forts. Inspiration is also drawn from the landscapes and geometrical figures. The motifs evoke various moods in the serenity of the prints and that is the catchy element of Bagh prints. The development in this traditional textile is as essential as in another field. Nowadays fashion trends are fragile and innovative changes over existing fashion field in the short span is the demand of times. We must make efforts to preserve this cultural heritage of arts and crafts and this is done either by documenting the various ancient traditions or by making a blend of it. Since this craft is well known over the world, but the need is to document the original motif, fabric, technology and colors used in contemporary fashion. Hence keeping above points in mind this study on bagh print textiles of Madhya Pradesh work has been formulated. The information incorporated in the paper was based on secondary data taken from relevant books, journals, museum visit and articles. Besides for the demographic details and working profile of the artisans dealt with printing, an interview schedule was carried out in three regions of Madhya Pradesh. This work of art was expressed in Cotton fabric. For this study selected traditional motifs for Bang printing was used. Some of the popular traditional Bagh motifs are Jasmine, Mushroom leheriya, geometrical figures and jaali work. The Bagh printed cotton fabrics were developed into a range of men’s ethic wear in combination with embroideries from Rajasthan. Products developed were bandhgala jackets, kurtas, serwani and dupattas. From the present study, it can be observed that the embellished traditional Bang printed range of ethnic men’s wear resulted in the fresh and colourful pattern. The embroidered Bagh printed cotton fabric also created a huge change in a positive way among artisans of the three regions.

Keywords: art and craft of Madhya Pradesh, evolution of printing in India, history of Bagh printing, sources of inspiration

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Authors: Victoria Y. Garnova, Vladimir G. Merzlikin, Sergey V. Khudyakov, Aleksandr A. Gajour, Andrei P. Garnov

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This paper refers to the analysis of the characteristics of industrial and lifestyle facilities heat- energy objects as a part of the thermal envelope of Earth's surface for inclusion in any database of economic forecasting. The idealized model of the Earth's surface is discussed. This model gives the opportunity to obtain the energy equivalent for each element of terrain and world ocean. Energy efficiency criterion of comfortable human existence is introduced. Dynamics of changes of this criterion offers the possibility to simulate the possible technogenic catastrophes with a spontaneous industrial development of the certain Earth areas. Calculated model with the confirmed forecast of the Gulf Stream freezing in the Polar Regions in 2011 due to the heat-energy balance disturbance for the oceanic subsurface oil polluted layer is given. Two opposing trends of human development under the limited and unlimited amount of heat-energy resources are analyzed.

Keywords: Earth's surface, heat-energy consumption, energy criteria, technogenic catastrophes

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Authors: Mahima Shrivastava, Soumya Kar, B. Swetha Malika, Lalu Saheb, M. Muthu Kumar, P. V. Ponambala Moorthi

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Natural hazards and manmade destruction causes both economic and societal losses. Generalized pre-mitigation strategies introduced and adopted for prevention of disaster all over the world are capable of augmenting the resiliency and optimizing the life-cycle cost of facilities. In countries like India where varied topographical feature exists requires location specific mitigation measures and strategies to be followed for better enhancement by event-driven and code-driven approaches. Present state of vindication measures followed and adopted, lags dominance in accomplishing the required development. In addition, serious concern and debate over climate change plays a vital role in enhancing the need and requirement for the development of time bound adaptive mitigation measures. For the development of long-term sustainable policies incorporation of future climatic variation is inevitable. This will further assist in assessing the impact brought about by the climate change on life-cycle cost of facilities. This paper develops more definite region specific and time bound pre-mitigation measures, by reviewing the present state of mitigation measures in India and all over the world for improving life-cycle cost of facilities. For the development of region specific adoptive measures, Indian regions were divided based on multiple-calamity prone regions and geo-referencing tools were used to incorporate the effect of climate changes on life-cycle cost assessment. This study puts forward significant effort in establishing sustainable policies and helps decision makers in planning for pre-mitigation measures for different regions. It will further contribute towards evaluating the life cycle cost of facilities by adopting the developed measures.

Keywords: climate change, geo-referencing tools, life-cycle cost, multiple-calamity prone regions, pre-mitigation strategies, sustainable policies

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Authors: Mario Tauzene Afonso Matangue, Ivan Andres Sanchez Ortiz

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The Metropolitan area of Maputo (Mozambique Capital City) is located in semi-arid zone (800 mm annual rainfall) with 1101170 million inhabitants. On the west side, there are the flatlands of Infulene where the Mulauze River flows towards to the Indian Ocean, receiving at this site, the storm water contaminated with sanitary sewage from Maputo, transported through a concrete open channel. In Infulene, local communities grow salads crops such as tomato, onion, garlic, lettuce, and cabbage, which are then commercialized and consumed in several markets in Maputo City. Lettuce is the most daily consumed salad crop in different meals, generally in fast-foods, breakfasts, lunches, and dinners. However, the risk of infection by several pathogens due to the consumption of lettuce, using the Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) tools, is still unknown since there are few studies or publications concerning to this matter in Mozambique. This work is aimed at determining the annual risk arising from the consumption of lettuce grown in Infulene valley, in Maputo, using QMRA tools. The exposure model was constructed upon the volume of contaminated water remaining in the lettuce leaves, the empirical relations between the number of pathogens and the indicator of microorganisms (E. coli), the consumption of lettuce (g) and reduction of pathogens (days). The reference pathogens were Vibrio cholerae, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Ascaris. The water quality samples (E. coli) were collected in the storm water channel from January 2016 to December 2018, comprising 65 samples, and the urban lettuce consumption data were collected through inquiry in Maputo Metropolis covering 350 persons. A non-parametric bootstrap was performed involving 10,000 iterations over the collected dataset, namely, water quality (E. coli) and lettuce consumption. The dose-response models were: Exponential for Cryptosporidium, Kummer Confluent hypergeomtric function (1F1) for Vibrio and Ascaris Gaussian hypergeometric function (2F1-(a,b;c;z) for norovirus. The annual infection risk estimates were performed using R 3.6.0 (CoreTeam) software by Monte Carlo (Latin hypercubes), a sampling technique involving 10,000 iterations. The annual infection risks values expressed by Median and the 95th percentile, per person per year (pppy) arising from the consumption of lettuce are as follows: Vibrio cholerae (1.00, 1.00), Cryptosporidium (3.91x10⁻³, 9.72x 10⁻³), nororvirus (5.22x10⁻¹, 9.99x10⁻¹) and Ascaris (2.59x10⁻¹, 9.65x10⁻¹). Thus, the consumption of the lettuce would result in greater risks than the tolerable levels ( < 10⁻³ pppy or 10⁻⁶ DALY) for all pathogens, and the Vibrio cholerae is the most virulent pathogens, according to the hit-single models followed by the Ascaris lumbricoides and norovirus. The sensitivity analysis carried out in this work pointed out that in the whole QMRA, the most important input variable was the reduction of pathogens (Spearman rank value was 0.69) between harvest and consumption followed by water quality (Spearman rank value was 0.69). The decision-makers (Mozambique Government) must strengthen the prevention measures related to pathogens reduction in lettuce (i.e., washing) and engage in wastewater treatment engineering.

Keywords: annual infections risk, lettuce, non-parametric bootstrapping, quantitative microbial risk assessment tools

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