Search results for: production distribution scenario

Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

Abstract:

These papers describe the Bayesian Estimator using Markov Chain Monte Carlo and Lindley’s approximation and the maximum likelihood estimation of the Weibull distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood method can’t estimate the shape parameter in closed forms, although it can be solved by numerical methods. Moreover, the Bayesian estimates of the parameters, the survival and hazard functions cannot be solved analytically. Hence Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and Lindley’s approximation are used, where the full conditional distribution for the parameters of Weibull distribution are obtained via Gibbs sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (HM) followed by estimate the survival and hazard functions. The methods are compared to Maximum Likelihood counterparts and the comparisons are made with respect to the Mean Square Error (MSE) and absolute bias to determine the better method in scale and shape parameters, the survival and hazard functions.

Keywords: weibull distribution, bayesian method, markov chain mote carlo, survival and hazard functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Kalyan Sundar Som, Ghanshyam Prasad Jhariya

Abstract:

Population growth is an important pervasive phenomenon in the world. Its survival depends upon many daily needs and food is one of them. Population factors play a decisive role in the human endeavor to attain food. Nutrition and health status compose integral part of human development and progress of a society. Therefore, the neglect any one of these components may leads to the deterioration of the quality of life. Food is also intimately related with economic growth and social progress as well as with political stability and peace. It refers to the availability of food and its access to it. It can be observed from global to local level. Food scarcity has emerged as a matter of great concern all over the world due to uncontrolled and unregulated growth of population .For this purpose this study try to find out the deficit or surplus production of food availability in terms of their total population in the study area. It also ascertains the population pressure, demand and supply of food stuff and demarcation of insecure areas.The data base of the study under discussion includes government published data regarding agriculture production, yield and cropped area in 2005-06 to 2011-12 available at commissioner land record Madhya Pradesh, Gwalior. It also includes the census of India for population data. For measuring food security or insecurity regions is based on the consumption of net food available in terms caloric value minus the consumption by the weighted total population. This approach has been adopted because the direct estimate of production and consumption is the only reliable way to ascertain food security in a unit area and to compare one area with another (Noor Mohammad, dec. 2002). The scenario in 2005-06 is 57.78 percent district has food insufficient in terms of their population. On the other hand after 5 years, there are only 22 % districts are deficit in term of food availability where Burhanpur is the most deficit (56 percent) district. While 20% district are highly surplus district in the state where Harda and Hoshangabad districts are very high surplus district (5 times and 3.95 times) in term of food availability(2011). The drastic change (agriculture transformation) is happen due government good intervention in the agricultural sector.

Keywords: agriculture transformation, caloric value method, deficit or surplus region, population pressure

Procedia PDF Downloads 430

Authors: Serge B. Provost, Yishan Zhang

Abstract:

A moment-based adjustment to the saddlepoint approximation is introduced in the context of density estimation. First applied to univariate distributions, this methodology is extended to the bivariate case. It then entails estimating the density function associated with each marginal distribution by means of the saddlepoint approximation and applying a bivariate adjustment to the product of the resulting density estimates. The connection to the distribution of empirical copulas will be pointed out. As well, a novel approach is proposed for estimating the support of distribution. As these results solely rely on sample moments and empirical cumulant-generating functions, they are particularly well suited for modeling massive data sets. Several illustrative applications will be presented.

Keywords: empirical cumulant-generating function, endpoints identification, saddlepoint approximation, sample moments, density estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: M. Barsa

Abstract:

This paper argues that current liberal trade regimes have had the unfortunate effect of concentrating food production by area and by crop. While such hyper-specialization and standardization might be efficient under ordinary climate conditions, the increasing severity of climate shocks makes such a food production system especially vulnerable. Examining domestic US crop production, and the fact that similar patterns are evident worldwide, this paper explores the vulnerabilities of several major crops and suggests that the academic arguments surrounding increasing liberalization of trade are ill-suited to the climate challenges to come. Indeed, a case can be made that protectionist measures—especially by developing countries whose agricultural sectors are vulnerable to the cheap US and European exports—are increasingly necessary to scatter food production geographically and to retain a resilient diversity of crop varieties.

Keywords: climate change, crop resilience, diversity, international trade

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Parinaz Tavakoli Zaniani, Dimitrios Balomenos

Abstract:

Mitochondrial reactive oxygen species (mROS) play a crucial role in macrophage pro-inflammatory activation, although a detailed understanding of the mechanism and kinetics by which mROS drive signaling molecules is still lacking. In general, it is thought that NF-κB activation drives mROS and general ROS production. Here, We performed a detailed kinetic analysis of mROS production during macrophage activation. We found early mROS generation after LPS (lipopolysaccharide) stimulation. Remarkably as early as 5 minutes, mROS signaling promoted initial NF-κB, MAPK activation and pro-inflammatory cytokine production, as established through inhibition or quenching of mROS. On the contrary, NF-κB inhibition had no effect on mROS production. Our findings point to a mechanism by which mROS increase TRAF-6 ubiquitination and, thus NF-κB activity. mROS inhibition reduced LPS-induced lethality in an in vivo septic shock model by controlling pro-inflammatory cytokine production. Overall, our research provides novel insights into the role of mROS as a primary messenger in the pathway of macrophage and as a regulator of inflammatory responses. We found that early mROS production promotes initial NF-κB, and MAPK activation by regulating TRAF-6 ubiquitination and that mROS inhibition can reduce LPS-induced inflammatory cytokines and lethality in a septic shock model. These findings might lead to novel immunotherapeutic strategies targeting early mROS production and control of extreme inflammation in the context of sepsis and other inflammatory diseases.

Keywords: mitochondria, reactive oxygen species, nuclear factor κB, lipopolysaccharide, macrophages

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: A. M. Omoare, E. O. Fakoya

Abstract:

This study sought to determine the use of indigenous knowledge for selected arable crops production in Ondo Sate. A multistage sampling method was used and 112 arable crops farmers were systematically selected. Data were analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The results showed that majority of the sampled farmers were male (75.90%). About 75% were married with children. Large proportion of them (62.61%) were within the ages of 30-49 years. Most of them have spent about 10 years in farming (58.92%). The highest raw scores of use of indigenous knowledge were found in planting on mound in yam production, use of native medicine and scare crow method in controlling birds in rice production, timely planting of locally developed resistant varieties in cassava production and soaking of maize seeds in water to determine their viability with raw scores of 313, 310, 305, 303, and 300 respectively, while the lowest raw scores was obtained in use of bell method in controlling birds in rice production with raw scores of 210. The findings established that proverbs (59.8%) and taboos (55.36%) were the most commonly used media in transmitting indigenous knowledge by arable crop farmers. The multiple regression analysis result revealed that age of the farmers and farming experience had a significant relationship with the use of indigenous knowledge of the farmers which gave R2 = 0.83 for semi log function form of equation which is the land equation. The policy implication is that indigenous knowledge should provide basis for designing modern technologies to enhance sustainable agricultural development.

Keywords: crop production, extent of use, indigenous knowledge, arable crops

Procedia PDF Downloads 651

Authors: Renata P. Lopes

Abstract:

The current art exhibit scenario presents a multitude of visualization features deployed in experiences that instigate a process of art production and design. The exhibition design through multimedia devices - from the audiovisual to the touch screen - has become a medium from which art can be understood and contemplated. Artistic practices articulated, during the modern period, the spectator's perception in the exhibition space, often challenging the architecture of museums and galleries. In turn, the museum institution seeks to respond to the challenge of welcoming the viewer whose experience is mediated by technological artifacts. When the beholder, together with the technology, interacts with the exhibition space, important displacements happen. In this work, we will analyze the migrations of the exhibition space to the digital environment through mobile devices triggered by the viewer. Based not on technological determinism, but on the conditions of the appearance of this spectator, this work is developed, with the aim of apprehending the way in which technology demarcates the differences between what the spectator was and what becomes in the contemporary atmosphere of the museums and galleries. These notions, we believe, will contribute to the formation of an exhibition design space in conformity with this participant.

Keywords: exhibition, museum, exhibition design, digital media

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: I. M. Sakr, Ali M. Abdelsalam, K. A. Ibrahim, W. A. El-Askary

Abstract:

This paper presents an experimental study for hydrogen production using alkaline water electrolysis operated by solar energy. Two methods are used and compared for separation between the cathode and anode, which are acrylic separator and polymeric membrane. Further, the effects of electrolyte concentration, solar insolation, and space between the pair of electrodes on the amount of hydrogen produced and consequently on the overall electrolysis efficiency are investigated. It is found that the rate of hydrogen production increases using the polymeric membrane installed between the electrodes. The experimental results show also that, the performance of alkaline water electrolysis unit is dominated by the electrolyte concentration and the gap between the electrodes. Smaller gaps between the pair of electrodes are demonstrated to produce higher rates of hydrogen with higher system efficiency.

Keywords: hydrogen production, water electrolysis, solar energy, concentration

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: B. Unnikrishnan, Tanuj Kanchan, Ramesh Holla, Nithin Kumar

Abstract:

Euthanasia has been debated for the ethical, legal, social, and religious implications associated with it. The present research was conducted to study the perceptions of doctors and nurses about ethical and legal aspects of Euthanasia in Indian scenario. The study was carried out at three tertiary care hospitals of Kasturba Medical College (KMC), Mangalore, India. Practicing doctors and nurses working in the hospitals associated with KMC were included in the study after taking written informed consent from the participants. The data was analyzed using SPSS version 11.5. Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the responses of doctors and nurses. P-value of <0.05 was taken as statistically significant. A total of 144 doctors and nurses participated in the study. Both doctors and nurses agreed that if a terminally ill patient wishes to die, the wish cannot be honored ethically and legally. A significantly larger number of nurses agreed that patient’s wish for euthanasia cannot be honored ethically and legally when compared to the doctors. Though the doctors and nurses were broadly in agreement with the existing legal and ethical views on the issue, their knowledge on the issue with regard to the legal status of euthanasia in India and ethical aspects relating to it needs to be strengthened.

Keywords: euthanasia, ethical aspects, legal aspects, India

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

Abstract:

Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 88

Authors: Surasak Siripornadulsil, Nutt Poomai, Wilailak Siripornadulsil

Abstract:

Due to a high ethanol demand, the approach for effective ethanol production is important and has been developed rapidly worldwide. Several agricultural wastes are highly abundant in celluloses and the effective cellulose enzymes do exist widely among microorganisms. Accordingly, the cellulose degradation using microbial cellulose to produce a low-cost substrate for ethanol production has attracted more attention. In this study, the cellulose producing bacterial strain has been isolated from rich straw and identified by 16S rDNA sequence analysis as Acinetobacter sp. KKU44. This strain is able to grow and exhibit the cellulose activity. The optimal temperature for its growth and cellulose production is 37 °C. The optimal temperature of bacterial cellulose activity is 60 °C. The cellulose enzyme from Acinetobacter sp. KKU44 is heat-tolerant enzyme. The bacterial culture of 36 h. showed highest cellulose activity at 120 U/mL when grown in LB medium containing 2% (w/v). The capability of Acinetobacter sp. KKU44 to grow in cellulosic agricultural wastes as a sole carbon source and exhibiting the high cellulose activity at high temperature suggested that this strain could be potentially developed further as a cellulose degrading strain for a production of low-cost substrate used in ethanol production.

Keywords: cellulose enzyme, bagasse, rice straw, rice husk, acinetobacter sp. KKU44

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Pengcheng Quan, Shan Zhong

Abstract:

Double ramp geometry is widely used in supersonic and hypersonic environments as it presents unique flow patterns for shock wave-boundary layer interaction studies as well as for two-dimensional inlets and deflected control surfaces for re-entry vehicles. Hence, the surface pressure distribution is critical for optimum design. Though when the model is wide enough on spanwise direction the flow can be regarded as a two-dimensional flow, in actual applications a finite width would normally cause some three-dimensional spillage effects. No research has been found addressed this problem, hence the primary interest of this study is to set up a liable surface pressure distribution on a double ramp with three-dimensional effects. Both numerical and experimental (pressure sensitive paints) are applied to obtain the pressure distribution; the results agree well except that the numerical computation doesn’t capture the Gortler vortices. The pressure variations on the spanwise planes are used to analyse the development of the Gortler vortices and the effects of three-dimensional spillage on the vortices. Results indicate that the three-dimensionl spillage effects not only enhance the developing of the Gortler vortice, but also increase the periodic distance between vortice pairs.

Keywords: spillage effects, pressure sensitive paints, hypersonic, double ramp

Procedia PDF Downloads 325

Authors: Mohamed Barbary, Mohamed H. Abd El-Azeem

Abstract:

Maneuvering extended object tracking (M-EOT) using high-resolution inverse synthetic aperture radar (ISAR) observations has been gaining momentum recently. This work presents a new robust implementation of the multiple models (MM) multi-Bernoulli (MB) filter for M-EOT, where the M-EOT’s ISAR observations are characterized using a skewed (SK) non-symmetrically normal distribution. To cope with the possible abrupt change of kinematic state, extension, and observation distribution over an extended object when a target maneuvers, a multiple model technique is represented based on MB-track-before-detect (TBD) filter supported by SK-sub-random matrix model (RMM) or sub-ellipses framework. Simulation results demonstrate this remarkable impact.

Keywords: maneuvering extended objects, ISAR, skewed normal distribution, sub-RMM, MM-MB-TBD filter

Procedia PDF Downloads 71

Authors: Milton Jusu

Abstract:

Efforts by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and its development partners to introduce “modern” aquaculture in Sierra Leone since the 1970s have not been successful. A number of reasons have been hypothesized, including the suggestion that the market infrastructure and demand for farmed fish were inadequate to stimulate large-scale and widespread aquaculture production in the country. We have assessed the size, structure, networks, and opportunities in fish markets using a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) and questionnaire surveys conducted in a sample of 29 markets (urban, weekly, wholesale, and retail) and two hundred traders. The study showed that the local fish markets were dynamic, with very high variations in demand and supply. The markets sampled supplied between 135.2 and 9947.6 tonnes/year. Mean prices for fresh fish varied between US$1.12 and US$3.89/kg depending on species, with smoked catfish and shrimps commanding prices as high as US$7.4/kg. It is unlikely that marine capture fisheries can increase their current production levels, and these may, in fact, already be over-exploited and declining. Marine fish supplies are particularly low between July and September. More careful attention to the timing of harvests (rainy season, not dry season) and to species (catfish, not tilapia) (could help in the successful adoption of aquaculture.

Keywords: fisheries, aquaculture, marine, fish ponds

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Shih-Ming Wang, Chun-Kai Yeh, Ming-Hwang Shie, Tai-Wei Lin, Chieh-Fu Chang

Abstract:

This paper introduces a FPGA-based baseband signals generator (BSG) of X-band transmitter developed by National Space Organization (NSPO), Taiwan, for earth observation. In order to gain more flexibility for various applications, a number of modulation schemes, QPSK, DeQPSK and 8PSK 4D-TCM are included. For micro satellite scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 150Mbsps, and the EVM is as low as 1.9%. For CubeSat scenario, the maximum symbol rate is up to 60Mbsps, and the EVM is less than 1.7%. The maximum data rates are 412.5Mbps and 165Mbps, respectively. Besides, triple modular redundancy (TMR) scheme is implemented in order to reduce single event effect (SEE) induced by radiation. Finally, the theoretical error performance is provided based on comprehensive analysis, especially when BER is lower and much lower than 10⁻⁶ due to low error bit requirement of modern high-resolution earth remote-sensing instruments.

Keywords: X-band transmitter, FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array), CubeSat, micro satellite

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Abir Yahya, Hacen Dhahri, Khalifa Slimi

Abstract:

The present paper deals with a numerical simulation of temperature field inside a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) components. The temperature distribution is investigated using a co-flow planar SOFC comprising the air and fuel channel and two-ceramic electrodes, anode and cathode, separated by a dense ceramic electrolyte. The Lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used for the numerical simulation of the physical problem. The effects of inlet temperature, anode thermal conductivity and current density on temperature distribution are discussed. It was found that temperature distribution is very sensitive to the inlet temperature and the current density.

Keywords: heat sources, Lattice Boltzmann method, solid oxide fuel cell, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 304

Authors: Frantisek Bozek, Pavel Budinsky, Ignac Hoza, Alexandr Bozek, Magdalena Naplavova

Abstract:

A cleaner production project was implemented in a bakery. The project is based on the substitution of the best available technique for an obsolete leaven production technology. The new technology enables production of durable, high-quality leavens. Moreover, 25% of flour as the original raw material can be replaced by pastry from the previous day production which has not been sold. That pastry was previously disposed in a waste incineration plant. Besides the environmental benefits resulting from less waste, lower consumption of energy, reduction of sewage waters quantity and floury dustiness there are also significant economic benefits. Payback period of investment was calculated with help of static method of financial analysis about 2.6 years, using dynamic method 3.5 years and an internal rate of return more than 29%. The supposed annual average profit after taxation in the second year of operation was incompliance with the real profit.

Keywords: bakery, best available technology, cleaner production, costs, economic benefit, efficiency, energy, environmental benefit, investment, savings

Procedia PDF Downloads 362

Authors: Shruti Chopra, Vikas Rao Vadi

Abstract:

In the era of the digital world, the Internet of Things (IoT) has been receiving significant attention. Its ubiquitous connectivity between humans, machines to machines (M2M) and machines to humans provides it a potential to transform the society and establish an ecosystem to serve new dimensions to the economy of the country. Thereby, this study has attempted to identify the challenges that seem prevalent in IoT adoption in India through the literature survey. Further, the data has been collected by taking the opinions of experts to conduct the foresight analysis and it has been analyzed with the help of scenario planning process – Micmac, Mactor, Multipol, and Smic-Prob. As a methodology, the study has identified the relationship between variables through variable analysis using Micmac and actor analysis using Mactor, this paper has attempted to generate the entire field of possibilities in terms of hypotheses and construct various scenarios through Multipol. And lastly, the findings of the study include final scenarios that are selected using Smic-Prob by assigning the probability to all the scenarios (including the conditional probability). This study may help the practitioners and policymakers to remove the obstacles to successfully implement the IoT in India.

Keywords: Internet of Thing (IoT), foresight analysis, scenario planning, challenges, policymaking

Procedia PDF Downloads 144

Authors: P. Azimi, B. Behtoiy, A. A. Najafi, H. R. Charmchi

Abstract:

According to the previous studies, one of the most famous techniques which affect the efficiency of a production line is the assembly line balancing (ALB) technique. This paper examines the balancing effect of a whole production line of a real auto glass manufacturer in three steps. In the first step, processing time of each activity in the workstations is generated according to a practical approach. In the second step, the whole production process is simulated and the bottleneck stations have been identified, and finally in the third step, several improvement scenarios are generated to optimize the system throughput, and the best one is proposed. The main contribution of the current research is the proposed framework which combines two famous approaches including Assembly Line Balancing and Optimization via Simulation technique (OvS). The results show that the proposed framework could be applied in practical environments, easily.

Keywords: assembly line balancing problem, optimization via simulation, production planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 519

Authors: Andrey Vinajera-Zamora, Norge Coello-Machado, Elke Glistau

Abstract:

The objective of this research is calculate the added value in operations of electric power meters (EPM) supply chains, specifically the EPM of 220v. The tool used is composed by six steps allowing at same time the identification of calibration of EPM as the bottleneck operation according the net added value being at same time the process of higher added value. On the other hand, this methodology allows calculate the amount of money to buy the raw material. The main conclusions are related to the analyze ‘s way and calculating of added value in supply chain integrated by the echelons procurement, production and distribution or any of these.

Keywords: economic value added, supply chain management, value chain, bottleneck detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 291

Authors: V. Reyes, P. Ferreira

Abstract:

In response to high levels of competitiveness, industrial systems have evolved to improve productivity. As a consequence, a rapid increase in volume production and simultaneously, a customization process require lower costs, more variety, and accurate quality of products. Reducing time-cycle production, enabling customizability, and ensure continuous quality improvement are key features in advance intelligent industry. In this scenario, customers and producers will be able to participate in the ongoing production life cycle through real-time interaction. To achieve this vision, transparency, predictability, and adaptability are key features that provide the industrial systems the capability to adapt to customer demands modifying the manufacturing process through an autonomous response and acting preventively to avoid errors. The industrial system incorporates a diversified number of components that in advanced industry are expected to be decentralized, end to end communicating, and with the capability to make own decisions through feedback. The evolving process towards advanced intelligent industry defines a set of stages to empower components of intelligence and enhancing efficiency to achieve the decision-making stage. The integrated system follows an industrial cyber-physical system (CPS) architecture whose real-time integration, based on a set of enabler technologies, links the physical and virtual world generating the digital twin (DT). This instance allows incorporating sensor data from real to virtual world and the required transparency for real-time monitoring and control, contributing to address important features of the advanced intelligent industry and simultaneously improve sustainability. Assuming the industrial CPS as the core technology toward the latest advanced intelligent industry stage, this paper reviews and highlights the correlation and contributions of the enabler technologies for the operationalization of each stage in the path toward advanced intelligent industry. From this research, a real-time integration architecture for a cyber-physical system with applications to collaborative robotics is proposed. The required functionalities and issues to endow the industrial system of adaptability are identified.

Keywords: cyber-physical systems, digital twin, sensor data, system integration, virtual model

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: Andra Blumberga, Armands Gravelsins, Haralds Vigants, Dagnija Blumberga

Abstract:

The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this research study was to build a framework to analyse development perspectives for wood pellet production. To reach the goal, a system dynamics model of energy wood supplies, processing, and consumption is built. Production capacity, energy consumption, changes in energy and technology efficiency, required labour source, prices of wood, energy and labour are taken into account. Validation and verification tests with available data and information have been carried out and indicate that the model constitutes the dynamic hypothesis. It is found that the more is invested into pellets production, the higher the specific profit per production unit compared to wood logs and wood chips. As a result, wood chips production is decreasing dramatically and is replaced by wood pellets. The limiting factor for pellet industry growth is availability of wood sources. This is governed by felling limit set by the government based on sustainable forestry principles.

Keywords: bioenergy, biotechonomy, system dynamics modelling, wood pellets

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Hilary Rutto, Linda Sibali

Abstract:

In these modern times, we constantly search for new and innovative technologies to lift the burden of our extreme energy demand. The overall purpose of biofuel production research is to source an alternative energy source to replace the normal use of fossil fuel as liquid petroleum products. This experiment looks at the basis of biodiesel production with regards to alternative catalysts that can be used to produce biodiesel. The key factors that will be addressed during the experiments will focus on temperature variation, catalyst additions to the overall reaction, methanol to oil ratio, and the impact of agitation on the reaction. Brine samples sources from nearby plants will be evaluated and tested thoroughly and the key characteristics of these brine samples analysed for the verification of its use as a possible catalyst in biodiesel production. The one factor at a time experimental approach was used in this experiment, and the recycle and reuse characteristics of the heterogeneous catalyst was evaluated.

Keywords: brine sludge, heterogenous catalyst, biodiesel, one factor

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Anton Serov, Alan Maslani, Michal Hlina, Vladimir Kopecky, Milan Hrabovsky

Abstract:

Recycling of organic waste is an increasingly hot topic in recent years. This issue becomes even more interesting if the raw material for the fuel production can be obtained as the result of that recycling. A process of high-temperature decomposition of a lignite (a non-hydrolysable complex organic compound) was studied on the plasma gasification reactor PLASGAS, where water-stabilized plasma torch was used as a source of high enthalpy plasma. The plasma torch power was 120 kW and allowed heating of the reactor to more than 1000 °C. The material feeding rate in the gasification reactor was selected 30 and 60 kg per hour that could be compared with small industrial production. An efficiency estimation of the thermal decomposition process was done. A balance of the torch energy distribution was studied as well as an influence of the lignite particle size and an addition of methane (CH4) in a reaction volume on the syngas composition (H2+CO). It was found that the ratio H2:CO had values in the range of 1,5 to 2,5 depending on the experimental conditions. The recycling process occurred at atmospheric pressure that was one of the important benefits because of the lack of expensive vacuum pump systems. The work was supported by the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic under the project GA15-19444S.

Keywords: atmospheric pressure, lignite, plasma treatment, water-stabilized plasma torch

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: M. S. Tajul Islam, Md. Zahangir Alam

Abstract:

To enhance biogas production through anaerobic digestion, the application of various type of pre-treatment method has some limitations in terms of sustainable environmental management. Many studies on pretreatments especially chemical and physical processes are carried out to evaluate the anaerobic digestion for enhanced biogas production. Among the pretreatment methods acid and alkali pre-treatments gained the highest importance. Previous studies have showed that although acid and alkali pretreatment has significant effect on degradation of biomass, these methods have some negative impact on environment due to their hazard in nature while enzymatic pre-treatment is environmentally friendly. One of the constrains to use of enzyme in pretreatment process for biogas production is high cost which is currently focused to reduce cost through fermentation of waste-based media. As such palm oil mill effluent (POME) as an abundant resource generated during palm oil processing at mill is being used a potential fermentation media for enzyme production. This low cost of enzyme could be an alternative to biogas pretreatment process. This review is to focus direct application of enzyme as enzymatic pre-treatment on POME to enhanced production of biogas.

Keywords: POME, enzymatic pre-treatment, biogas, lignocellulosic biomass, anaerobic digestion

Procedia PDF Downloads 542

Authors: Sánchez Acuña, Juan Camilo, Granados Gómez, Mildred Magaly, Navarrete Rodríguez, Luisa Fernanda

Abstract:

Nowadays, the main biofuels source production as bioethanol is food crops. This means a high competition between foods and energy production. For this reason, it is necessary to take into account the use of new raw materials friendly to the environment. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the potential of the agro-industrial banana crop residues in the production of bioethanol. A factorial design of 2⁴ was used, the design has variables such as pH, time and concentration of hydrolysis, another variable is the time of fermentation that is of 7 or 15 days. In the hydrolysis phase, the pH is acidic (H₂SO₄) or basic (NaOH), the time is 30 or 15 minutes and the concentration is 0.1 or 0.5 M. It was observed that basic media, low concentrations, fermentation, and higher pretreatment times produced better performance in terms of biofuel obtained.

Keywords: bioethanol, biofuels, banana waste, hydrolysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 422

Authors: Weichao Yu, Kai Wen, Weihe Huang, Yang Yang, Jing Gong

Abstract:

Metal-loss corrosion is a major threat to the safety and integrity of gas pipelines as it may result in the burst failures which can cause severe consequences that may include enormous economic losses as well as the personnel casualties. Therefore, it is important to ensure the corroding pipeline integrity and efficiency, considering the value of wall thickness, which plays an important role in the failure probability of corroding pipeline. Actually, the wall thickness is controlled during pipe purchase stage. For example, the API_SPEC_5L standard regulates the allowable tolerance of the wall thickness from the specified value during the pipe purchase. The allowable wall thickness tolerance will be used to determine the wall thickness distribution characteristic such as the mean value, standard deviation and distribution. Taking the uncertainties of the input variables in the burst limit-state function into account, the reliability approach rather than the deterministic approach will be used to evaluate the failure probability. Moreover, the cost of pipe purchase will be influenced by the allowable wall thickness tolerance. More strict control of the wall thickness usually corresponds to a higher pipe purchase cost. Therefore changing the wall thickness tolerance will vary both the probability of a burst failure and the cost of the pipe. This paper describes an approach to optimize the wall thickness tolerance considering both the safety and economy of corroding pipelines. In this paper, the corrosion burst limit-state function in Annex O of CSAZ662-7 is employed to evaluate the failure probability using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. By changing the allowable wall thickness tolerance, the parameters of the wall thickness distribution in the limit-state function will be changed. Using the reliability approach, the corresponding variations in the burst failure probability will be shown. On the other hand, changing the wall thickness tolerance will lead to a change in cost in pipe purchase. Using the variation of the failure probability and pipe cost caused by changing wall thickness tolerance specification, the optimal allowable tolerance can be obtained, and used to define pipe purchase specifications.

Keywords: allowable tolerance, corroding pipeline segment, operation cost, production cost, reliability approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Y. Yılmaz, C. Ünal, A. Dursun

Abstract:

Distribution channels play significant role for hotels. Direct and indirect selling options of hotel rooms have been increased especially with the help of new technologies, i.e. hotel’s own web sites and online booking sites. Although these options emerged as tools for diversifying the distribution channels, vast number of hotels -mostly resort hotels- is still heavily dependent upon international tour operators when selling their products. On the other hand, hotel sector is so vulnerable against crises. Economic, political or any other crisis can affect hotels very badly and so it is critical to have the right balance of distribution channel to avoid the adverse impacts of a crisis. In this study, it is aimed to search the impacts of a general crisis on the selling prices of hotels which have different weights of distribution channels. The study was done in Turkey where various crises occurred in 2015 and 2016 which had great negative impacts on Turkish tourism and led enormous occupancy rate and selling price reductions. 112 upscale resort hotel in Antalya, which is the most popular tourism destination of Turkey, joined to the research. According to the results, hotels with high dependency to international tour operators are more forced to reduce their room prices in crisis time compared to the ones which use their own web sites more. It was also found that the decline in room prices is limited for hotels which are working with national tour operators and travel agencies in crisis time.

Keywords: marketing channels, crisis, hotel, international tour operators, online travel agencies

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

Abstract:

The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

Abstract:

Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

Procedia PDF Downloads 156