Search results for: climate mitigation

Authors: H. M. Liman, Y. M. Suleiman A. A. David

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Poor air quality often considered one of the greatest environmental threats facing the world today is caused majorly by the emission of carbon monoxide into the atmosphere. The principal air pollutant is carbon monoxide. One prominent source of carbon monoxide emission is the transportation sector. Not much was known about the emission levels of carbon monoxide, the primary pollutant from the road transportation in the study area. Therefore, this study assessed the levels of carbon monoxide emission from road transportation in the Minna, Niger State. The database shows the carbon monoxide data collected. MSA Altair gas alert detector was used to take the carbon monoxide emission readings in Parts per Million for the peak and off-peak periods of vehicular movement at the road intersections. Their Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates were recorded in the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM). Bar chart graphs were plotted by using the emissions level of carbon dioxide as recorded on the field against the scientifically established internationally accepted safe limit of 8.7 Parts per Million of carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. Further statistical analysis was also carried out on the data recorded from the field using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software and Microsoft excel to show the variance of the emission levels of each of the parameters in the study area. The results established that emissions’ level of atmospheric carbon monoxide from the road transportation in the study area exceeded the internationally accepted safe limits of 8.7 parts per million. In addition, the variations in the average emission levels of CO between the four parameters showed that morning peak is having the highest average emission level of 24.5PPM followed by evening peak with 22.84PPM while morning off peak is having 15.33 and the least is evening off peak 12.94PPM. Based on these results, recommendations made for poor air quality mitigation via carbon monoxide emissions reduction from transportation include Introduction of the urban mass transit would definitely reduce the number of traffic on the roads, hence the emissions from several vehicles that would have been on the road. This would also be a cheaper means of transportation for the masses and Encouraging the use of vehicles using alternative sources of energy like solar, electric and biofuel will also result in less emission levels as the these alternative energy sources other than fossil fuel originated diesel and petrol vehicles do not emit especially carbon monoxide.

Keywords: carbon monoxide, climate change emissions, road transportation, vehicular

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Authors: Jayson Cheyne, David Butler, Iain Bomphray

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In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been used increasingly for electric vehicles and large energy storage systems due to their high-power density and long lifespan. Despite this, thermal runaway remains a significant safety problem because of its uncontrollable and irreversible nature - which can lead to fires and explosions. In large-scale lithium-ion packs and modules, thermal runaway propagation between cells can escalate fire hazards and cause significant damage. Thus, safety measures are required to mitigate thermal runaway propagation. The current research explores composite phase change materials (PCM) containing expanded graphite (EG) for thermal runaway mitigation. PCMs are an area of significant interest for battery thermal management due to their ability to absorb substantial quantities of heat during phase change. Moreover, the introduction of EG can support heat transfer from the cells to the PCM (owing to its high thermal conductivity) and provide shape stability to the PCM during phase change. During the research, a thermal model was established for an array of 16 cylindrical cells to simulate heat dissipation with and without the composite PCM. Two conditions were modeled, including the behavior during charge/discharge cycles (i.e., throughout regular operation) and thermal runaway. Furthermore, parameters including cell spacing, composite PCM thickness, and EG weight percentage (WT%) were varied to establish the optimal material parameters for enabling thermal runaway mitigation and effective thermal management. Although numerical modeling is still ongoing, initial findings suggest that a 3mm PCM containing 15WT% EG can effectively suppress thermal runaway propagation while maintaining shape stability. The next step in the research is to validate the model through controlled experimental tests. Additionally, with the perceived fire safety concerns relating to PCM materials, fire safety tests, including UL-94 and Limiting Oxygen Index (LOI), shall be conducted to explore the flammability risk.

Keywords: battery safety, electric vehicles, phase change materials, thermal management, thermal runaway

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Authors: Hilman Agil Satria, Rezky Naufan Hendrawan

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Indonesia is vulnerable to geological hazard because of its location in subduction zone and have tropical climate. Landslide is one of the most happened geological hazard in Indonesia, based on Indonesia Geospasial data, at least 194 landslides recorded in 2013. In fact, research location is placed as the third city that most happened landslide in Indonesia. Landslide caused damage of many houses and wrecked the road. The purpose of this research is to make a landslide zone therefore can be used as one of mitigation consideration. The location is in Bruno, Porworejo district Central Java Province Indonesia at 109.903 – 109.99 and -7.59 – -7.50 with 10 Km x 10 Km wide. Based on geological mapping result, the research location consist of Late Miocene sandstone and claystone, and Pleistocene volcanic breccia and tuff. Those landslide happened in the lithology that close with fault zone. This location has so many geological structures: joints, faults and folds. There are 3 thrust faults, 1 normal faults, 4 strike slip faults and 6 folds. This geological structure movement is interpreted as the main factor that has triggered landslide in this location. This research use field data as well as samples of rock, joint, slicken side and landslide location which is combined with DEM SRTM to analyze geomorphology. As the final result of combined data will be presented as geological map, geological structure map and landslide zone map. From this research we can assume that there is correlation between geological structure and landslide locations.

Keywords: geological structure, landslide, Porworejo, Indonesia

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Authors: Vimala Rani P, Narasimha Malikarjunan, Mercy Shalinie S

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Data Networking was brought forth as an instantiation of information-centric networking. The attackers can send a colossal number of spoofs to take hold of the Pending Interest Table (PIT) named an Interest Flooding attack (IFA) since the in- interests are recorded in the PITs of the intermediate routers until they receive corresponding Data Packets are go beyond the time limit. These attacks can be detrimental to network performance. PIT expiration rate or the Interest satisfaction rate, which cannot differentiate the IFA from attacks, is the criterion Traditional IFA detection techniques are concerned with. Threshold values can casually affect Threshold-based traditional methods. This article proposes an accurate IFA detection mechanism based on a Multiple Feature-based Extreme Learning Machine (MF-ELM). Accuracy of the attack detection can be increased by presenting the entropy of Internet names, Interest satisfaction rate and PIT usage as features extracted in the MF-ELM classifier. Furthermore, we deploy a queue-based hostile Interest prefix mitigation mechanism. The inference of this real-time test bed is that the mechanism can help the network to resist IFA with higher accuracy and efficiency.

Keywords: information-centric network, pending interest table, interest flooding attack, MF-ELM classifier, queue-based mitigation strategy

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Authors: Allaeddine Athmani, Abdelhacine Gouasmia, Tiago Ferreira, Romeu Vicente

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The seismic risk mitigation from the perspective of the old buildings stock is truly essential in Algerian urban areas, particularly those located in seismic prone regions, such as Annaba city, and which the old buildings present high levels of degradation associated with no seismic strengthening and/or rehabilitation concerns. In this sense, the present paper approaches the issue of the seismic vulnerability assessment of old masonry building stocks through the adaptation of a simplified methodology developed for a European context area similar to that of Annaba city, Algeria. Therefore, this method is used for the first level of seismic vulnerability assessment of the masonry buildings stock of the old city center of Annaba. This methodology is based on a vulnerability index that is suitable for the evaluation of damage and for the creation of large-scale loss scenarios. Over 380 buildings were evaluated in accordance with the referred methodology and the results obtained were then integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS) tool. Such results can be used by the Annaba city council for supporting management decisions, based on a global view of the site under analysis, which led to more accurate and faster decisions for the risk mitigation strategies and rehabilitation plans.

Keywords: Damage scenarios, masonry buildings, old city center, seismic vulnerability, vulnerability index

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Authors: Aziza S. Al Adhoobi, Amna Al Ruheili, Saud M. Al Jufaili

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This study investigates the potential effects of climate change on the habitat suitability of two Aphaniops species (Teleostei: Aphaniidae) found in the Oman Mountains and the Southwestern Arabian Coast. Aphaniops kruppi, an endemic species, is found in various water bodies such as wadis, springs, aflaj, spring-fed streams, and some coastal backwaters. Aphaniops stoliczkanus, on the other hand, inhabits brackish and freshwater habitats, particularly in the lower parts of wadies and aflaj, and exhibits euryhaline characteristics. Using Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) in conjunction with ArcGIS (10.8.2) and CHELSA bioclimatic variables, topographic indices, and other pertinent environmental factors, the study modeled the potential impacts of climate change based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 7.0, 8.5) for the periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. The model demonstrated exceptional predictive accuracy, achieving AUC values of 0.992 for A. kruppi and 0.983 for A. stoliczkanus. For A. kruppi, the most influential variables were the mean monthly climate moisture index (Cmi_m), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and the sediment transport index (STI), accounting for 39.9%, 18.3%, and 8.4%, respectively. As for A. stoliczkanus, the key variables were the sediment transport index (STI), stream power index (SPI), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), contributing 31%, 20.2%, and 13.3%, respectively. A. kruppi showed an increase in habitat suitability, especially in low and medium suitability areas. By 2071-2100, high suitability areas increased slightly by 0.05% under RCP 2.6, but declined by -0.02% and -0.04% under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, respectively. A. stoliczkanus exhibited a broader range of responses. Under RCP 2.6, all suitability categories increased by 2071-2100, with high suitability areas increasing by 0.01%. However, low and medium suitability areas showed mixed trends under RCP 7.0 and 8.5, with declines of -0.17% and -0.16%, respectively. The study highlights that climatic and topographical factors significantly influence the habitat suitability of Aphaniops species in Oman. Therefore, species-specific conservation strategies are crucial to address the impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Aphaniops kruppi, Aphaniops stoliczkanus, Climate change, Habitat suitability, MaxEnt

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Authors: Rong Wang, Sandra Hasanefendic, Elizabeth von Hauff, Bart Bossink

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Technological learning and learning curve models have been continuously used to estimate the photovoltaics (PV) cost development over time for the climate mitigation targets. They can integrate a number of technological learning sources which influence the learning process. Yet the accuracy and realistic predictions for cost estimations of PV development are still difficult to achieve. This paper develops four hypothetical-alternative learning curve models by proposing different combinations of technological learning sources, including both local and global technology experience and the knowledge stock. This paper specifically focuses on the non-linear relationship between the costs and technological learning source and their dynamic interaction and uses the system dynamics approach to predict a more accurate PV cost estimation for future development. As the case study, the data from China is gathered and drawn to illustrate that the learning curve model that incorporates both the global and local experience is more accurate and realistic than the other three models for PV cost estimation. Further, absorbing and integrating the global experience into the local industry has a positive impact on PV cost reduction. Although the learning curve model incorporating knowledge stock is not realistic for current PV cost deployment in China, it still plays an effective positive role in future PV cost reduction.

Keywords: photovoltaic, system dynamics, technological learning, learning curve

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Authors: Yuanyuan Liu, Yuanqing Wang, Di Li

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Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions mitigation from road construction activities is one of the potential pathways to deal with climate change due to its higher use of materials, machinery energy consumption, and high quantity of vehicle and equipment fuels for transportation and on-site construction activities. Aiming to assess the environmental impact of the road infrastructure construction activities and to identify hotspots of emissions sources, this study developed a life-cycle CO2 emissions assessment framework covering three stages of material production, to-site and on-site transportation under the guidance of the principle of LCA ISO14040. Then streamlined inventory analysis on sub-processes of each stage was conducted based on the budget files from cases of highway projects in China. The calculation results were normalized into functional unit represented as ton per km per lane. Then a comparison between the amount of emissions from each stage, and sub-process was made to identify the major contributor in the whole highway lifecycle. In addition, the calculating results were used to be compared with results in other countries for understanding the level of CO2 emissions associated with Chinese road infrastructure in the world. The results showed that materials production stage produces the most of the CO2 emissions (for more than 80%), and the production of cement and steel accounts for large quantities of carbon emissions. Life cycle CO2 emissions of fuel and electric energy associated with to-site and on-site transportation vehicle and equipment are a minor component of total life cycle CO2 emissions from highway project construction activities. Bridges and tunnels are dominant large carbon contributor compared to the road segments. The life cycle CO2 emissions of road segment in highway project in China are slightly higher than the estimation results of highways in European countries and USA, about 1500 ton per km per lane. In particularly, the life cycle CO2 emissions of road pavement in majority cities all over the world are about 500 ton per km per lane. However, there is obvious difference between the cities when the estimation on life cycle CO2 emissions of highway projects included bridge and tunnel. The findings of the study could offer decision makers a more comprehensive reference to understand the contribution of road infrastructure to climate change, especially understand the contribution from road infrastructure construction activities in China. In addition, the identified hotspots of emissions sources provide the insights of how to reduce road carbon emissions for development of sustainable transportation.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, construction activities, highway, life cycle assessment

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Authors: Zhen Li, Chang Liu, Ping Zhang

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These Glaciers are thought of as natural water reservoirs and are of vital importance to hydrological models and industrial production, and glacial changes act as significant indicators of climate change. The glacier snowline can be used as an indicator of the equilibrium line, which may be a key parameter to study the effect of climate change on glaciers. Using Google Earth Engine, we select optical satellite imageries and implement the Otsu thresholding method on a near-infrared band to detect snowline altitudes (SLAs) of 26 glaciers in three regions of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Three different study regions in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have different climate regimes, which are Sepu Kangri (SK, maritime glacier), Bu’Gyai Kangri (BK, continental glacier) and west of Qiajajima (WQ, continental glacier), along a latitudinal transect from south to north. We analyzed the effects of climatic factors on the SLA changes from 1995 to 2016. SLAs are fluctuating upward, and the rising values are 100 m, 60 m, and 34 m from south to north during the 22 years. We also observed that the climatic factor that affects the variability of SLA gradually changes from precipitation to temperature from south to north. The northern continental glaciers are mainly affected by temperature, and the southern maritime glaciers affected by precipitation. Owing to the influence of primary climatic factors, continental glaciers are found to have higher SLAs on the south slope, while maritime glaciers have higher SLAs on the north slope.

Keywords: climate change, glacier, snowline altitude, tibetan plateau

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Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

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Authors: Artur Krukowski, Emmanouela Vogiatzaki

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The article presents an ongoing work in research projects such as SCAN4RECO or ARCH, both funded by the European Commission under Horizon 2020 program. The former one concerns multimodal and multispectral scanning of Cultural Heritage assets for their digitization and conservation via spatiotemporal reconstruction and 3D printing, while the latter one aims to better preserve areas of cultural heritage from hazards and risks. It co-creates tools that would help pilot cities to save cultural heritage from the effects of climate change. It develops a disaster risk management framework for assessing and improving the resilience of historic areas to climate change and natural hazards. Tools and methodologies are designed for local authorities and practitioners, urban population, as well as national and international expert communities, aiding authorities in knowledge-aware decision making. In this article we focus on 3D modelling of object geometry using primarily photogrammetric methods to achieve very high model accuracy using consumer types of devices, attractive both to professions and hobbyists alike.

Keywords: 3D modelling, UAS, cultural heritage, preservation

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Authors: Carmen E. Zapata, José F. Jiménez, Mauricio Ramiréz, Natalia A. Cano

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The majority of the urban areas in Latin America face the challenges associated with city planning and development problems, attributed to human, technical, and economical factors; therefore, we cannot ignore the issues related to climate change because the city modifies the natural landscape in a significant way transforming the radiation balance and heat content in the urbanized areas. These modifications provoke changes in the temperature distribution known as “the heat island effect”. According to this phenomenon, we have the need to conceive the urban planning based on climatological patterns that will assure its sustainable functioning, including the particularities of the climate variability. In the present study, it is identified the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) in the Metropolitan Area of the Aburrá Valley (Colombia) with the objective of relocate the air quality monitoring stations as a partial solution to the problem of how to measure representative air quality levels in a city for a local scale, but with instruments that measure in the microscale.

Keywords: air quality, monitoring, local climatic zones, valley, monitoring stations

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Authors: Titilope F. Onaolapo, Christiana A. Breed, Maya Pasgaard, Kristine E. Jensen, Peta Brom

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In the face of fast-growing urbanization in most of the world's developing countries, there is a need to understand and address the risk and consequences involved in the indiscriminate use of urban green space. Tshwane city in South Africa has the potential to become one of the world's top biodiversity cities as South Africa is ranked one of the mega countries in biodiversity conservation, and Tshwane metropolitan municipality is the city with the wealthiest biodiversity with grassland biomes. In this study, we focus on the potentials and challenges of urban green transitioning from the Global South perspective with Tshwane city as the case study. We also address the issue of management conflicts that have resulted in informal and illegal activities in and around green spaces, with consequences such as land degradation, loss of livelihoods and biodiversity, and socio-ecological imbalances. A desk study review of eight policy frameworks related to green urban planning and development was done based on four GI principles: multifunctionality, connectivity, interdisciplinary and social inclusion. We interviewed 15 key informants in related departments in the city and administered 200 survey questionnaires among residents. We also had several workshops the other researchers and experts on biodiversity and ecosystem. We found out there is no specific document dedicated to green space management, and where green infrastructure was mentioned, it was focused on as an approach to climate mitigation and adaptation. Also, residents perceive green and open spaces as extra land that could be developed at will. We demonstrated the use of collaborative learning approaches in ecological and development research and the tying research to the existing frameworks, programs, and strategies. Based on this understanding. We outlined the need to incorporate principles of green infrastructure in policy frameworks on spatial planning and environmental development. Furthermore, we develop a model for co-management of green infrastructures by stakeholders, such as residents, developers, policymakers, and decision-makers, to maximize benefits. Our collaborative, interdisciplinary projects pursue SDG multifunctionality of goals 11 and 15 by simultaneously addressing issues around Sustainable Cities and Communities, Climate Action, Life on Land, and Strong Institutions, and halt and reverse land degradation and biodiversity.

Keywords: governance, green infrastructure, South Africa, sustainable development, urban planning, Tshwane

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Authors: Abdelghani Qadem

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Urbanization in Morocco has ushered in profound shifts in hydrological dynamics, presenting a spectrum of challenges and avenues for sustainable water management. This abstract delves into the nuances of urban hydrology in Morocco, spotlighting the ramifications of rapid urban expansion, the imprint of climate change, and the imperative for cohesive water management strategies. The swift urban sprawl across Morocco has engendered a surge in impermeable surfaces, reshaping the natural hydrological cycle and amplifying quandaries such as urban inundations and water scarcity. Moreover, the specter of climate change looms large, heralding alterations in precipitation regimes and a heightened frequency of extreme meteorological events, thus compounding the hydrological conundrum. However, amidst these challenges, urban hydrology in Morocco also unfolds vistas of innovation and sustainability. The integration of green infrastructure, encompassing solutions like permeable pavements and vegetated roofs, emerges as a linchpin in ameliorating the hydrological imbalances wrought by urbanization, fostering infiltration, and curbing surface runoff. Additionally, embracing the tenets of water-sensitive urban design promises to fortify water efficiency and resilience in urban landscapes. Effectively navigating urban hydrology in Morocco mandates a cross-disciplinary approach that interweaves urban planning, water resource governance, and climate resilience strategies. A collaborative ethos, bridging governmental entities, academic institutions, and grassroots communities, assumes paramount importance in crafting and executing comprehensive solutions that grapple with the intricate interplay of urbanization, hydrology, and climate dynamics. In summation, confronting the labyrinthine challenges of urban hydrology in Morocco necessitates proactive strides toward fostering sustainable urban growth and bolstering resilience to climate vagaries. By embracing cutting-edge technologies and embracing an ethos of integrated water management, Morocco can forge a path toward a more water-secure and resilient urban future.

Keywords: urban hydrology, Morocco, urbanization, climate change, water management, green infrastructure, sustainable development

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Authors: Sofiya Rao, Sagnik Dey

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Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction continues to be one of the largest sources of uncertainty in quantifying the aerosol climate forcing. The uncertainty is increasing from global to regional scale. This problem remains unresolved due to the large discrepancy in the representation of cloud processes in the climate models. Most of the studies on aerosol-cloud-climate interaction and aerosol-cloud-precipitation over Indian Ocean (like INDOEX, CAIPEEX campaign etc.) are restricted to either particular to one season or particular to one region. Here we developed a theoretical framework to quantify aerosol indirect radiative forcing using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products of 15 years (2000-2015) period over the Indian Ocean. This framework relies on the observationally constrained estimate of the aerosol-induced change in cloud albedo. We partitioned the change in cloud albedo into the change in Liquid Water Path (LWP) and Effective Radius of Clouds (Reff) in response to an aerosol optical depth (AOD). Cloud albedo response to an increase in AOD is most sensitive in the range of LWP between 120-300 gm/m² for a range of Reff varying from 8-24 micrometer, which means aerosols are most sensitive to this range of LWP and Reff. Using this framework, aerosol forcing during a transition from indirect to semi-direct effect is also calculated. The outcome of this analysis shows best results over the Arabian Sea in comparison with the Bay of Bengal and the South Indian Ocean because of heterogeneity in aerosol spices over the Arabian Sea. Over the Arabian Sea during Winter Season the more absorbing aerosols are dominating, during Pre-monsoon dust (coarse mode aerosol particles) are more dominating. In winter and pre-monsoon majorly the aerosol forcing is more dominating while during monsoon and post-monsoon season meteorological forcing is more dominating. Over the South Indian Ocean, more or less same types of aerosol (Sea salt) are present. Over the Arabian Sea the Aerosol Indirect Radiative forcing are varying from -5 ± 4.5 W/m² for winter season while in other seasons it is reducing. The results provide observationally constrained estimates of aerosol indirect forcing in the Indian Ocean which can be helpful in evaluating the climate model performance in the context of such complex interactions.

Keywords: aerosol-cloud-precipitation interaction, aerosol-cloud-climate interaction, indirect radiative forcing, climate model

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Authors: Zahra Bakhtiari

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Middle East countries confront a multitude of main environmental challenges which are inevitable. The unstable economic and political structure which dominates numerous middle East countries makes it difficult to react effectively to unfavorable climate change impacts. This study applies a qualitative methodology and relies on secondary literature aimed to investigate how countries in the Middle East are balancing economic security and climatic security in terms of budgeting, infrastructure investment, political engagement (domestically through discourses or internationally in terms of participation in international organizations or bargaining, etc.) There has been provided an outline of innovative measures in both economic and environmental fields that are in progress in the Middle East countries and what capacity they have for economic development and environmental adaptation, as well as what has already been performed. The primary outcome is that countries that rely more on infrastructure investment such as negative emissions technologies (NET) through green social capital enterprises and political engagement, especially nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commitments and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), experience more economic and climatological security balance in the Middle East. Since implementing these measures is not the same in all countries in the region, we see different levels of balance between climate security and economic security. The overall suggestion is that the collaboration of both the bottom-up and top-down approaches helps create strategic environmental strategies which are in line with the economic circumstances of each country and creates the desired balance.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, sustainability, the Middle East, green economy, renewable energy

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Authors: Hany Mustafa, Mahmoud Roushdi, Khaled Kheireldin

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Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates. Climate change is very likely to increase the frequency, magnitude, and variability of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The Blue Nile Basin is facing extreme climate change-related events such as floods and droughts and its possible impacts on ecosystem, livelihood, agriculture, livestock, and biodiversity are expected. Rainfall variability is a threat to food production in the Blue Nile Basin countries. This study investigates the long-term variations and trends of seasonal and annual precipitation over the Blue Nile Basin for 102-year period (1901-2002). Six statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. On the other hands, four statistical absolute homogeneity tests: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, Buishand Range test, Pettitt test and the Von Neumann ratio test were applied to test the homogeneity of the rainfall data, using XLSTAT software, which results of p-valueless than alpha=0.05, were significant. The percentages of significant trends obtained for each parameter in the different seasons are presented. The study recommends adaptation strategies to be streamlined to relevant policies, enhancing local farmers’ adaptive capacity for facing future climate change effects.

Keywords: Blue Nile basin, climate change, Mann-Kendall test, trend analysis

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Authors: Mireille Elhajj, Washington Ochieng, Deeph Chana

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The challenges of the rapid growth in the demand for transport has traditionally been seen within the context of the problems of congestion, air quality, climate change, safety, and affordability. However, there are increasing threats including those related to crime such as cyber-attacks that threaten the security of the transport of people and goods. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents for the first time, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of the current and future security issues of multi-modal transport systems. The approach or method proposed is based on a structured framework starting with a detailed specification of the transport asset map (transport system architecture), followed by the identification of vulnerabilities. The asset map and vulnerabilities are used to identify the various approaches for exploitation of the vulnerabilities, leading to the creation of a set of threat scenarios. The threat scenarios are then transformed into risks and their categories, and include insights for their mitigation. The consideration of the mitigation space is holistic and includes the formulation of appropriate policies and tactics and/or technical interventions. The quality of the framework is ensured through a structured and logical process that identifies the stakeholders, reviews the relevant documents including policies and identifies gaps, incorporates targeted surveys to augment the reviews, and uses subject matter experts for validation. The approach to categorising security risks is an extension of the current methods that are typically employed. Specifically, the partitioning of risks into either physical or cyber categories is too limited for developing mitigation policies and tactics/interventions for transport systems where an interplay between physical and cyber processes is very often the norm. This interplay is rapidly taking on increasing significance for security as the emergence of cyber-physical technologies, are shaping the future of all transport modes. Examples include: Connected Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) in road transport; the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) in rail transport; Automatic Identification System (AIS) in maritime transport; advanced Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) technologies in air transport; and the Internet of Things (IoT). The framework adopts a risk categorisation scheme that considers risks as falling within the following threat→impact relationships: Physical→Physical, Cyber→Cyber, Cyber→Physical, and Physical→Cyber). Thus the framework enables a more complete risk picture to be developed for today’s transport systems and, more importantly, is readily extendable to account for emerging trends in the sector that will define future transport systems. The framework facilitates the audit and retro-fitting of mitigations in current transport operations and the analysis of security management options for the next generation of Transport enabling strategic aspirations such as systems with security-by-design and co-design of safety and security to be achieved. An initial application of the framework to transport systems has shown that intra-modal consideration of security measures is sub-optimal and that a holistic and multi-modal approach that also addresses the intersections/transition points of such networks is required as their vulnerability is high. This is in-line with traveler-centric transport service provision, widely accepted as the future of mobility services. In summary, a risk-based framework is proposed for use by the stakeholders to comprehensively and holistically assess the security of transport systems. It requires a detailed understanding of the transport architecture to enable a detailed vulnerabilities analysis to be undertaken, creates threat scenarios and transforms them into risks which form the basis for the formulation of interventions.

Keywords: mitigations, risk, transport, security, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Evgeniia Surkova, Manal Assaad, Hleb Makeyeu, Juho Makio

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The main objective of STIMEY (Science, Technology, Innovation, Mathematics, Engineering for the Young) project is the delivery of a hybrid learning environment that combines multi-level components such as social media concepts, robotic artefacts, and radio, among others. It is based on a well-researched pedagogical framework to attract European youths to STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education and careers. To develop and integrate these various components, STIMEY is executed in iterative research cycles leading to progressive improvements. Scrum was the development methodology of choice in the project, as studies indicated its benefits as an agile methodology in global software development, especially of e-learning and integrated learning projects. This paper describes the project partners’ experience with the Scrum framework, discussing the challenges faced in its implementation and the mitigation practices employed. The authors conclude with exploring user experience tools and principles for future research, as a novel direction in supporting the Scrum development team.

Keywords: e-learning, global software development, scrum, STEM education

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Authors: Xin Li

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The uncertainty and the complexity of the urban environment combining with the threat of climate change are contributing factors to the vulnerability in multiple-dimensions in Chinese megacities, especially in Shanghai. The urban area occupied high valuable technological infrastructure and density buildings is under the threats of climate change and can provide insufficient ecological service to remain the trade-off on urban sustainable development. Urban ecological-based adaptation (UEbA) combines practices and theoretical work and integrates ecological services into multiple-layers of urban environment planning in order to reduce the impact of the complexity and uncertainty. To understand and to respond to the challenges in the urban level, this paper considers Shanghai as the research objective. It is necessary that its urban adaptation strategies should be reflected and contain the concept and knowledge of EbA. In this paper, we firstly use software to illustrates the visualizing patterns and trends of UEBA research in the current 10 years. Specifically, Citespace software was used for interpreting the significant hubs, landmarks points of peer-reviewed literature on the context of ecological service research in recent 10 years. Secondly, 135 evidence-based EbA literature were reviewed for categorizing the methodologies and framework of evidence-based EbA by the systematic map protocol. Finally, a conceptual framework combined with culture, economic and social components was developed in order to assess the current adaptation strategies in Shanghai. This research founds that the key to reducing urban vulnerability does not only focus on co-benefit arguments but also should pay more attention to the concept of trade-off. This research concludes that the designed framework can provide key knowledge and indicates the essential gap as a valuable tool against climate variability in the process of urban adaptation in Shanghai.

Keywords: urban ecological-based adaptation, climate change, sustainable development, climate variability

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Authors: Azeez O. Ganiyu

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Climate change is expected to lead to substantial changes in rainfall patterns in southwest Nigeria, and this may have substantial consequence for forest management and for conservation outcomes throughout the region. We examine three different forest types across an environmental spectrum from semi-arid to humid subtropical and consider their response to water shortages and other environmental stresses; we also explore the potential consequence for conservation and timber production by considering impacts on forest structure and limiting stand density. Analysis of a series of scenarios provides the basis for a critique of existing management practices and suggests practical alternatives to develop resilient forests with minimal diminution of production and environmental services. We specifically discuss practical silviculture interventions that are feasible at the landscape-scale, that are economically viable, and that have the potential to enhance resilience of forest stands. We also discuss incentives to encourage adoption of these approaches by private forest owners. We draw on these case studies in southwestern Nigeria to offer generic principle to assist forest researchers and managers faced with similar challenges elsewhere.

Keywords: climate change, forest, future, silviculture, Nigeria

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Authors: Pawas Suren

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The conflict between livelihood and forest protection has been a perpetual phenomenon in India. In the era of climate change, the problem is expected to aggravate the declining trend of dense forest in the country, creating impediments in the climate change adaptation by the forest dependent communities. In order to access the complexity of the problem, Hazarinagh and Chatra districts of Jharkhand were selected as a case study. To identify norms practiced by the communities to manage community forestry, the ethnographic study was designed to understand the values, traditions, and cultures of forest dependent communities, most of whom were tribal. It was observed that internalization of efficient forest norms is reflected in the pride and honor of such behavior while violators are sanctioned through guilt and shame. The study analyzes the effect of norms being practiced in the management and ecology of community forestry as common property resource. The light of the findings led towards the gaps in the prevalent forest laws to address efficient allocation of property rights. The conclusion embarks on reconsidering accepted factors of forest degradation in India.

Keywords: climate change, common property resource, community forestry, norms

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Authors: Stamatis Zoras, Vasilis Evagelopoulos, Theodoros Staurakas

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The association between elevated air pollution levels and extreme climate conditions (temperature, particulate matter, ozone levels, etc.) and mental consequences has been, recently, the focus of significant number of studies. It varies depending on the time of the year it occurs either during the hot period or cold periods but, specifically, when extreme air pollution and weather events are observed, e.g. air pollution episodes and persistent heatwaves. It also varies spatially due to different effects of air quality and climate extremes to human health when considering metropolitan or rural areas. An air pollutant concentration and a climate extreme are taking a different form of impact if the focus area is countryside or in the urban environment. In the built environment the climate extreme effects are driven through the formed microclimate which must be studied more efficiently. Variables such as biological, age groups etc may be implicated by different environmental factors such as increased air pollution/noise levels and overheating of buildings in comparison to rural areas. Gridded air quality and climate variables derived from the land surface observations network of West Macedonia in Greece will be analysed against mortality data in a spatial format in the region of West Macedonia. Artificial intelligence (AI) tools will be used for data correction and prediction of health deterioration with climatic conditions and air pollution at local scale. This would reveal the built environment implications against the countryside. The air pollution and climatic data have been collected from meteorological stations and span the period from 2000 to 2009. These will be projected against the mortality rates data in daily, monthly, seasonal and annual grids. The grids will be operated as AI-based warning models for decision makers in order to map the health conditions in rural and urban areas to ensure improved awareness of the healthcare system by taken into account the predicted changing climate conditions. Gridded data of climate conditions, air quality levels against mortality rates will be presented by AI-analysed gridded indicators of the implicated variables. An Al-based gridded warning platform at local scales is then developed for future system awareness platform for regional level.

Keywords: air quality, artificial inteligence, climatic conditions, mortality

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: S. Surapa Raju

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In Andhra Pradesh, the symptoms of climate variations in coastal villages can be observed from various studies. The Andhra Pradesh coast is known its frequent tropical cyclones and associated floods and tidal surges causing loss of life and property in the region. In the last decade alone, the state experienced 18 devastating storms causing huge loss to coastal people. The year 2007 was the fourth warmest year on record since 1901 and 2009 witnessed the heat wave conditions prevailing over the coastal Andhra Pradesh. With regarding to sea level rise (SLR), 43 percent of the coastal areas considered to be at high risk. The main objectives of the study are: to know the perceptions of fisher people on climate variations and to find out the awareness of the fisher people on climate variations and its effects at village and on fishing households. Altogether 150 households were chosen purposively for this study and collected information from the households based on semi-structured schedule. The present field-based study observed that most of the fisher people are experienced about the changes in climate variations in their villages. The first generation fisher people expressed that the at least 1/2km of sea erosion taken place from the last 20 years and most of them displaced. With regard to fishing activities, first generation fisher people revealed that 20 years back they were fishing in near-shore areas, but now availability of near shore is decreased at a large extent. The present study observed the lot of variations in growth of species in marine districts of Andhra Pradesh from the year 2005-2010. Some species like Silver pomfret, Sole (flat fish), Chriocentrus, Thrisocies, Stakes, Rays etc. are in decaling. The results of the study indicate that huge variation observed in growth rates of fish species. Small and traditional fishers have drastically effected in El NiNo years than the normal years as they have not own suitable equipment such as crafts and nets. The study discovered that many changes taken place in the fishing activities and they are: go for long distance for fishing which increases the cost of fishing operations; decrease in fish catches. Need to take up in-depth studies in the marine villages and tackle the situation by creating more awareness about the negative effects of climate variations among fishing households. Suitable fish craft technology is to be supplied and create more employment opportunities for the fishers in other than fishery.

Keywords: climate, Andhra Pradesh, El nino years, India

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Victor Oyewumi Ogunbiyi

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Food waste is recognised as one of the major global challenges in achieving a sustainable future. Currently, very little is known about the multi-stakeholder approach to food waste management downstream of the supply chain, particularly in the foodservice sector. In order to better understand and explain the complex issues of food waste, a qualitative study was conducted on the generation of food waste in food services (restaurants, catering, canteens, and local food vendors) and policy initiatives to mitigate it from the perspective of the stakeholders. A semi-structured interview approach and observation were used to collect data from some 32 selected stakeholders in Garki, Abuja, Nigeria. Thematic analysis was employed to analyse the data from the qualitative instrument adopted in this study. Results revealed that the attitude of stakeholders, poor environmental hygiene, poor food cooking skills and handling, and lack of communication are the major causes of food waste. This study identified seven policy initiatives: regulations, information and education campaigns, economic instruments, mobile applications, stakeholders’ collaboration, firm internal action, and training. Finally, we link policy initiatives to food waste mitigation to provide a response to the damaging shock of food waste.

Keywords: food waste, foodservices, emerging opportunities, policy initiatives, food waste prevention, multistakeholder. garki district-abuja

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Authors: Malihe Ahmadi

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Nowadays, stress, tension and neural problems are among the most important concerns of the present age. The environment plays key role on improving mental health and reducing stress of citizens. Establishing balance and appropriate relationship between city and natural environment is of the most important approaches of present century. Type of approach and logical planning for urban green spaces as one of the basic sections of integration with nature, not only plays key role on quality and efficiency of comprehensive urban planning; but also it increases the system of distributing social activities and happiness and lively property of urban environments that leads to permanent urban development. The main purpose of recovering urban identity is considering culture, history and human life style in past. This is a documentary-library research that evaluates the historical properties of Iranian gardens in compliance with climate condition. Results of this research reveal that in addition to following Iranian gardens from common principles of land lot, structure of flowers and plants, water, specific buildings during different ages, the role of climate at different urban areas is among the basics of determining method of designing green spaces and different buildings located at diverse areas i.e. Iranian gardens are a space for merging natural and artificial elements that has inseparable connection with semantic principles and guarantees different functions. Some of the necessities of designing present urban gardens are including: recognition and recreation.

Keywords: historical gardens, climate, properties of Iranian gardens, Iran

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Authors: Md Kamrul Hassan

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Adaptation interventions are the common response to manage the vulnerabilities of climate change. The nature of adaptation intervention depends on the degree of vulnerability and the capacity of a society. The coping interventions can take the form of hard adaptation – utilising technologies and capital goods like dykes, embankments, seawalls, and/or soft adaptation – engaging knowledge and information sharing, capacity building, policy and strategy development, and innovation. Hard adaptation is quite capital intensive but provides immediate relief from climate change vulnerabilities. This type of adaptation is not real development, as the investment for the adaptation cannot improve the performance – just maintain the status quo of a social or ecological system, and often lead to maladaptation in the long-term. Maladaptation creates a two-way loss for a society – interventions bring further vulnerability on top of the existing vulnerability and investment for getting rid of the consequence of interventions. Hard adaptation is popular to the vulnerable groups, but it focuses so much on the immediate solution and often ignores the environmental issues and future risks of climate change. On the other hand, soft adaptation is education oriented where vulnerable groups learn how to live with climate change impacts. Soft adaptation interventions build the capacity of vulnerable groups through training, innovation, and support, which might enhance the resilience of a system. In consideration of long-term sustainability, soft adaptation can contribute more to resilience than hard adaptation. Taking a developing society as the study context, this study aims to investigate and understand the effectiveness of the adaptation interventions of the coastal community of Sundarbans mangrove forest in Bangladesh. Applying semi-structured interviews with a range of Sundarbans stakeholders including community residents, tourism demand-supply side stakeholders, and conservation and management agencies (e.g., Government, NGOs and international agencies) and document analysis, this paper reports several key insights regarding climate change adaptation. Firstly, while adaptation interventions may offer a short-term to medium-term solution to climate change vulnerabilities, interventions need to be revised for long-term sustainability. Secondly, soft adaptation offers advantages in terms of resilience in a rapidly changing environment, as it is flexible and dynamic. Thirdly, there is a challenge to communicate to educate vulnerable groups to understand more about the future effects of hard adaptation interventions (and the potential for maladaptation). Fourthly, hard adaptation can be used if the interventions do not degrade the environmental balance and if the investment of interventions does not exceed the economic benefit of the interventions. Overall, the goal of an adaptation intervention should be to enhance the resilience of a social or ecological system so that the system can with stand present vulnerabilities and future risks. In order to be sustainable, adaptation interventions should be designed in such way that those can address vulnerabilities and risks of climate change in a long-term timeframe.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, maladaptation, resilience, Sundarbans, sustainability, vulnerability

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Authors: Rose-Michelle Smith, Musandji Fuamba, Salomon Salumu

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Water is vital for life. Access to drinking water and sanitation for humans is one of the Sustainable Development Goals (specifically the sixth) approved by United Nations Member States in September 2015. There are various problems identified relating to water: insufficient fresh water, inequitable distribution of water resources, poor water management in certain places on the planet, detection of water-borne diseases due to poor water quality, and the negative impacts of climate change on water. One of the major challenges in the world is finding ways to ensure that people and the environment have enough water resources to sustain and support their existence. Thus, this research project aims to develop a tool to assess the availability, quality and needs of water in current and future situations with regard to climate change. This tool was tested using threshold values for three regions in three countries: the Metropolitan Community of Montreal (Canada), Normandie Region (France) and North Department (Haiti). The WEAP software was used to evaluate the available quantity of water resources. For water quality, two models were performed: the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) and the Malaysian Water Quality Index (WQI). Preliminary results showed that the ratio of the needs could be estimated at 155, 308 and 644 m3/capita in 2023 for Normandie, Cap-Haitian and CMM, respectively. Then, the Water Quality Index (WQI) varied from one country to another. Other simulations regarding the water availability and quality are still in progress. This tool will be very useful in decision-making on projects relating to water use in the future; it will make it possible to estimate whether the available resources will be able to satisfy the needs.

Keywords: climate change, water needs, balance sheet, water quality

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