Search results for: longitudinal model

Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

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Authors: Jamshaid Ul Rahman, Faiza Makhdoom, Dianchen Lu

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Activation functions play a decisive role in determining the capacity of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) as they enable neural networks to capture inherent nonlinearities present in data fed to them. The prior research on activation functions primarily focused on the utility of monotonic or non-oscillatory functions, until Growing Cosine Unit (GCU) broke the taboo for a number of applications. In this paper, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model named as ASU-CNN is proposed which utilizes recently designed activation function ASU across its layers. The effect of this non-monotonic and oscillatory function is inspected through feature map visualizations from different convolutional layers. The optimization of proposed network is offered by Adam with a fine-tuned adjustment of learning rate. The network achieved promising results on both training and testing data for the classification of CIFAR-10. The experimental results affirm the computational feasibility and efficacy of the proposed model for performing tasks related to the field of computer vision.

Keywords: amplifying sine unit, activation function, convolutional neural networks, oscillatory activation, image classification, CIFAR-10

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Authors: Kaaryn M. Cater

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Students with sensory processing sensitivity (SPS), Meares-Irlen Syndrome (MIS) and dyslexia can become overwhelmed and struggle to thrive in traditional tertiary learning environments. An estimated 50% of tertiary students who disclose learning related issues are dyslexic. This study explores the relationship between SPS, MIS and dyslexia. Baseline measures will be analysed to establish any correlation between these three minority methods of information processing. SPS is an innate sensitivity trait found in 15-20% of the population and has been identified in over 100 species of animals. Humans with SPS are referred to as Highly Sensitive People (HSP) and the measure of HSP is a 27 point self-test known as the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (HSPS). A 2016 study conducted by the author established base-line data for HSP students in a tertiary institution in New Zealand. The results of the study showed that all participating HSP students believed the knowledge of SPS to be life-changing and useful in managing life and study, in addition, they believed that all tutors and in-coming students should be given information on SPS. MIS is a visual processing and perception disorder that is found in approximately 10% of the population and has a variety of symptoms including visual fatigue, headaches and nausea. One way to ease some of these symptoms is through the use of colored lenses or overlays. Dyslexia is a complex phonological based information processing variation present in approximately 10% of the population. An estimated 50% of dyslexics are thought to have MIS. The study exploring possible correlations between these minority forms of information processing is due to begin in February 2017. An invitation will be extended to all first year students enrolled in degree programmes across all faculties and schools within the institution. An estimated 900 students will be eligible to participate in the study. Participants will be asked to complete a battery of on-line questionnaires including the Highly Sensitive Person Scale, the International Dyslexia Association adult self-assessment and the adapted Irlen indicator. All three scales have been used extensively in literature and have been validated among many populations. All participants whose score on any (or some) of the three questionnaires suggest a minority method of information processing will receive an invitation to meet with a learning advisor, and given access to counselling services if they choose. Meeting with a learning advisor is not mandatory, and some participants may choose not to receive help. Data will be collected using the Question Pro platform and base-line data will be analysed using correlation and regression analysis to identify relationships and predictors between SPS, MIS and dyslexia. This study forms part of a larger three year longitudinal study and participants will be required to complete questionnaires at annual intervals in subsequent years of the study until completion of (or withdrawal from) their degree. At these data collection points, participants will be questioned on any additional support received relating to their minority method(s) of information processing. Data from this study will be available by April 2017.

Keywords: dyslexia, highly sensitive person (HSP), Meares-Irlen Syndrome (MIS), minority forms of information processing, sensory processing sensitivity (SPS)

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Authors: Guannan Ren, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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Electric vehicle battery recycling has emerged as a critical process in the transition toward sustainable transportation. As the demand for electric vehicles continues to rise, so does the need to address the end-of-life management of their batteries. Electric vehicle battery recycling benefits resource recovery and supply chain stability by reclaiming valuable metals like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite. The reclaimed materials can then be reintroduced into the battery manufacturing process, reducing the reliance on raw material extraction and the environmental impacts of waste. Current battery recycling rates are insufficient to meet the growing demands for raw materials. While significant progress has been made in electric vehicle battery recycling, many areas can still improve. Standardization of battery designs, increased collection and recycling infrastructures, and improved efficiency in recycling processes are essential for scaling up recycling efforts and maximizing material recovery. This work delves into key factors, such as regulatory frameworks, economic incentives, and technological processes, that influence the cost-effectiveness and efficiency of battery recycling systems. A system dynamics model that considers variables such as battery production rates, demand and price fluctuations, recycling infrastructure capacity, and the effectiveness of recycling processes is created to study how these variables are interconnected, forming feedback loops that affect the overall supply chain efficiency. Such a model can also help simulate the effects of stricter regulations on battery disposal, incentives for recycling, or investments in research and development for battery designs and advanced recycling technologies. By using the developed model, policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers may gain insights into the effects of applying different policies or process updates on electric vehicle battery recycling rates.

Keywords: environmental engineering, modeling and simulation, circular economy, sustainability, transportation science, policy

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Authors: Choi Younshick, Lee Wonseok, Lee Jaemeun, Park Sun-Hyun, Kim Sunwoung, Park Sua, Kim Eun Ho, Kim Jong-Ki

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Iron accumulation in the brain accelerates Alzheimer’s disease progression. To cure iron toxicity, we assessed the therapeutic effects of noncontact transcranial electric field stimulation to the brain on toxic iron deposits in either the Aβ-fibril structure or the Aβ plaque in a mouse model of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). A capacitive electrode-based alternating electric field (AEF) was applied to a suspension of magnetite (Fe₃O₄) to measure the field-sensitized electro-Fenton effect and resultant reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation. The increase in ROS generation compared to the untreated control was both exposure-time and AEF-frequency dependent. The frequency-specific exposure of AEF to 0.7–1.4 V/cm on a magnetite-bound Aβ-fibril or a transgenic Alzheimer’s disease (AD) mouse model revealed the removal of intraplaque ferrous magnetite iron deposit and Aβ-plaque burden together at the same time compared to the untreated control. The results of the behavioral tests show an improvement in impaired cognitive function following AEF treatment on the AD mouse model. Western blot assay found some disease-modifying biological responses, including down-regulating ferroptosis, neuroinflammation and reactive astrocytes that eventually made cognitive improvement feasible. Tissue clearing and 3D-imaging analysis revealed no induced damage to the neuronal structures of normal brain tissue following AEF treatment. In conclusion, our results suggest that the effective degradation of magnetite-bound amyloid fibrils or plaques in the AD brain by the electro-Fenton effect from electric field-sensitized magnetite offers a potential electroceutical treatment option for AD.

Keywords: electroceutical, intraplaque magnetite, alzheimer’s disease, transcranial electric field, electro-fenton effect

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Authors: Augustine Okolie, Johannes Müller, Mirjam Kretzchmar

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We adopt a maximum-likelihood framework to estimate parameters of a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with contact tracing on a rooted random tree. Given the number of detectees per index case, our estimator allows to determine the degree distribution of the random tree as well as the tracing probability. Since we do not discover all infectees via contact tracing, this estimation is non-trivial. To keep things simple and stable, we develop an approximation suited for realistic situations (contract tracing probability small, or the probability for the detection of index cases small). In this approximation, the only epidemiological parameter entering the estimator is the basic reproduction number R0. The estimator is tested in a simulation study and applied to covid-19 contact tracing data from India. The simulation study underlines the efficiency of the method. For the empirical covid-19 data, we are able to compare different degree distributions and perform a sensitivity analysis. We find that particularly a power-law and a negative binomial degree distribution meet the data well and that the tracing probability is rather large. The sensitivity analysis shows no strong dependency on the reproduction number.

Keywords: stochastic SIR model on graph, contact tracing, branching process, parameter inference

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Priyadarsini Samal, Rajesh Singla

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Many mobile games come with the benefits of entertainment by introducing stress to the human brain. In recognizing this mental stress, the brain-computer interface (BCI) plays an important role. It has various neuroimaging approaches which help in analyzing the brain signals. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most commonly used method among them as it is non-invasive, portable, and economical. Here, this paper investigates the pattern in brain signals when introduced with mental stress. Two healthy volunteers played a game whose aim was to search hidden words from the grid, and the levels were chosen randomly. The EEG signals during gameplay were recorded to investigate the impacts of stress with the changing levels from easy to medium to hard. A total of 16 features of EEG were analyzed for this experiment which includes power band features with relative powers, event-related desynchronization, along statistical features. Support vector machine was used as the classifier, which resulted in an accuracy of 93.9% for three-level stress analysis; for two levels, the accuracy of 92% and 98% are achieved. In addition to that, another game that was similar in nature was played by the volunteers. A suitable regression model was designed for prediction where the feature sets of the first and second game were used for testing and training purposes, respectively, and an accuracy of 73% was found.

Keywords: brain computer interface, electroencephalogram, regression model, stress, word search

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Authors: Manam Hanfi

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Pakistan is a victim of terrorism since 9/11 attacks. Since then it is a home for violence and extremism. One of the major reasons behind rising violence and extremism in Pakistan is radicalization. Pakistan has seen and suffered from the modification of terrorism from old to new. In new terrorism, the terrorist organizations incorporated internet to disseminate propaganda, to recruit and train people. The study focuses on the relationship between Pakistan and new terrorism and examines how the internet is being used by terrorist organizations. The study investigates radicalization through social media by terrorist organizations in Pakistan with the help of case studies. The study suggests five ways to counter radicalization, including, counter narrative on social media, content analysis of the data on the internet, curriculum and madrassa reforms, teaching peace education in the educational institutions and use of technical software such as eGLYPH to quickly remove violent data from social media. Lastly, the research attempted to contribute in counter-radicalization by combining the media dependency model and ideas for counter-radicalization. The dependency model elaborates the impact of mass media content on the audience. If media dependency is high, it will cause cognitive, affective and behavioral changes. In order to counter radicalization through social media, it is important to make cognitive, affective and behavioral changes with the help of counter-radicalization suggestions.

Keywords: counter radicalization, extremism, social media, terrorism

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Authors: Abdulrahman S. Alqahtani

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The revolution of computing and networks could revolutionise terrorism in the same way that it has brought about changes in other aspects of life. The modern technological era has faced countries with a new set of security challenges. There are many states and potential adversaries who have the potential and capacity in cyberspace, which makes them able to carry out cyber-attacks in the future. Some of them are currently conducting surveillance, gathering and analysis of technical information, and mapping of networks and nodes and infrastructure of opponents, which may be exploited in future conflicts. This poster presents the results of the quantitative study (survey) to test the validity of the proposed theoretical framework for the cyber terrorist threats. This theoretical framework will help to in-depth understand these new digital terrorist threats. It may also be a practical guide for managers and technicians in critical infrastructure, to understand and assess the threats they face. It might also be the foundation for building a national strategy to counter cyberterrorism. In the beginning, it provides basic information about the data. To purify the data, reliability and exploratory factor analysis, as well as confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed. Then, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was utilised to test the final model of the theory and to assess the overall goodness-of-fit between the proposed model and the collected data set.

Keywords: cyberterrorism, critical infrastructure, , national security, theoretical framework, terrorism

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Authors: Yunqi Wang

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Benefiting from the demographic dividend, China has enjoyed export-led economic growth since 1978. While Lewis's model marks the structural transformation from the low-wage 'subsistence' sector to the 'modern sector' as the end of labour surplus, the Chinese government seems eager to extend such benefit by promoting a series of fertility encouragement policies, contrasting to its firm and strict birth control since last century. Based on a Attride-Stirling’s thematic analysis of interviews with unmarried female millennials in China, this paper argues that the young female generation responded to current fertility policies negatively, where the policy ineffectiveness and irresponsiveness have further worsened their marriage and childbirth reluctance. Instead of focusing on changes in wage level, this research contributes a qualitative perspective to the existing theoretical debate on the Lewis turning point, implying an inevitable end of demographic dividend in China. Highlighting the greater focus on female consciousness among the younger generation, it also suggests a policy orientation towards resolving outdated social norms to accommodate the rising female consciousness since millennials will become the childbirth mainstay in forthcoming years.

Keywords: lewis model, fertility policy, demographic dividend, one-child policy

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Authors: Asma Rebaya, Kaouther Gasmi, Imen Amari, Salem Hasnaoui

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Over these last years, applications such as telecommunications, signal processing, digital communication with advanced features (Multi-antenna, equalization..) witness a rapid evaluation accompanied with an increase of user exigencies in terms of latency, the power of computation… To satisfy these requirements, the use of hardware/software systems is a common solution; where hardware is composed of multi-cores and software is represented by models of computation, synchronous data flow (SDF) graph for instance. Otherwise, the most of the embedded system designers utilize Simulink for modeling. The issue is how to simplify the c code generation, for a multi-cores platform, of an application modeled by Simulink. To overcome this problem, we propose a workflow allowing an automatic transformation from the Simulink model to the SDF graph and providing an efficient schedule permitting to optimize the number of cores and to minimize latency. This workflow goes from a Simulink application and a hardware architecture described by IP.XACT language. Based on the synchronous and hierarchical behavior of both models, the Simulink block diagram is automatically transformed into an SDF graph. Once this process is successfully achieved, the scheduler calculates the optimal cores’ number needful by minimizing the maximum density of the whole application. Then, a core is chosen to execute a specific graph task in a specific order and, subsequently, a compatible C code is generated. In order to perform this proposal, we extend Preesm, a rapid prototyping tool, to take the Simulink model as entry input and to support the optimal schedule. Afterward, we compared our results to this tool results, using a simple illustrative application. The comparison shows that our results strictly dominate the Preesm results in terms of number of cores and latency. In fact, if Preesm needs m processors and latency L, our workflow need processors and latency L'< L.

Keywords: hardware/software system, latency, modeling, multi-cores platform, scheduler, SDF graph, Simulink model, workflow

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Authors: Balarabe Z. Ahmad, Anne-Lorène Vernay

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The emergence of electricity in Nigeria was dated back to 1896. The power plants have the potential to generate 12,522 MW of electric power. Whereas current dispatch is about 4,000 MW, access to electrification is about 60%, with consumption at 0.14 MWh/capita. The government embarked on energy reforms to mitigate energy poverty. The reform targeted the provision of electricity access to 75% of the population by 2020 and 90% by 2030. Growth of total electricity demand by a factor of 5 by 2035 had been projected. This means that Nigeria will require almost 530 TWh of electricity which can be delivered through generators with a capacity of 65 GW. Analogously, the geographical location of Nigeria has placed it in an advantageous position as the source of solar energy; the availability of a high sunshine belt is obvious in the country. The implication is that the far North, where energy poverty is high, equally has about twice the solar radiation as against southern Nigeria. Hence, the chance of generating solar electricity is 66% possible at 11850 x 103 GWh per year, which is one hundred times the current electricity consumption rate in the country. Harvesting these huge potentials may be a mirage if the entrepreneurs in the solar panel business are left with the conventional business models that are not uncertainty resilient. Currently, business entities in RE in Nigeria are uncertain of; accessing the national grid, purchasing potentials of cooperating organizations, currency fluctuation and interest rate increases. Uncertainties such as the security of projects and government policy are issues entrepreneurs must navigate to remain sustainable in the solar panel industry in Nigeria. The aim of this paper is to identify how entrepreneurial firms consider uncertainties in developing workable business models for commercializing solar energy projects in Nigeria. In an attempt to develop a novel business model, the paper investigated how entrepreneurial firms assess and navigate uncertainties. The roles of key stakeholders in helping entrepreneurs to manage uncertainties in the Nigeria RE sector were probed in the ongoing study. The study explored empirical uncertainties that are peculiar to RE entrepreneurs in Nigeria. A mixed-mode of research was embraced using qualitative data from face-to-face interviews conducted on the Solar Energy Entrepreneurs and the experts drawn from key stakeholders. Content analysis of the interview was done using Atlas. It is a nine qualitative tool. The result suggested that all stakeholders are required to synergize in developing an uncertainty resilient business model. It was opined that the RE entrepreneurs need modifications in the business recommendations encapsulated in the energy policy in Nigeria to strengthen their capability in delivering solar energy solutions to the yawning Nigerians.

Keywords: uncertainties, entrepreneurial, business model, solar-panel

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Authors: Haixu Yu, Wenhui Cao

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Tailoring Large Language Models (LLMs) to perform legal reasoning has been a popular trend in the study of AI and law. Researchers have mainly employed two methods to unlock the potential of LLMs, namely by finetuning the LLMs to expand their knowledge of law and by restructuring the prompts (In-Context Learning) to optimize the LLMs’ understanding of the legal questions. Although claiming the finetuning and renovated prompting can make LLMs more competent in legal reasoning, most state-of-the-art studies show quite limited improvements of practicability. In this paper, drawing on the study of the complexity and low interpretability of legal texts, we propose a prompting strategy based on the Chain of Thought (CoT) method. Instead of merely instructing the LLM to reason “step by step”, the prompting strategy requires the tested LLM to identify the ambiguity in the questions as the first step and then allows the LLM to generate corresponding answers in line with different understandings of the identified terms as the following step. The proposed prompting strategy attempts to encourage LLMs to "interpret" the given text from various aspects. Experiments that require the LLMs to answer “case analysis” questions of bar examination with general LLMs such as GPT 4 and legal LLMs such as LawGPT show that the prompting strategy can improve LLMs’ ability to better understand complex legal texts.

Keywords: ambiguity-identification, prompt, large language model, legal text understanding

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Authors: Obiora E. Anisiji, Jeremiah L. Chukwuneke, Chinonso H. Achebe, Paul C. Okolie

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This work developed a mathematical model of a biogas plant from a mechanistic point of view, for urban area clean energy requirement. It aimed at integrating thermodynamics; which deals with the direction in which a process occurs and Biochemical kinetics; which gives the understanding of the rates of biochemical reaction. The mathematical formulation of the proposed gas plant follows the fundamental principles of thermodynamics, and further analysis were accomplished to develop an algorithm for evaluating the plant performance preferably in terms of daily production capacity. In addition, the capacity of the plant is equally estimated for a given cycle of operation and presented in time histories. A nominal 1500m3 biogas plant was studied characteristically and its performance efficiency evaluated. It was observed that the rate of biogas production is essentially a function of enthalpy ratio, the reactor temperature, pH, substrate concentration, rate of degradation of the biomass, and the accumulation of matter in the system due to bacteria growth. The results of this study conform to a very large extent with reported empirical data of some existing plant and further model validations were conducted in line with classical records found in literature.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas plant, biogas production, bio-reactor, energy, fermentation, rate of production, temperature, therm

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Authors: F. A. Olutoge, O.R. Olulope, M. O. Odelola

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This study investigates the strength potentials of groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement in mortar and also develops a predictive model using Artificial Neural Network. Groundnut husks sourced from Ogbomoso, Nigeria, was sun dried, calcined to ash in a furnace at a controlled temperature of 600⁰ C for a period of 6 hours, and sieved through the 75 microns. The ash was subjected to chemical analysis and setting time test. Fine aggregate (sand) for the mortar was sourced from Ado Ekiti, Nigeria. The cement: GHA constituents were blended in ratios 100:0, 95:5, 90:10, 85:15 and 80:20 %. The sum of SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and Fe₂O₃ content in GHA is 26.98%. The compressive strength for mortars PC, GHA5, GHA10, GHA15, and GHA20 ranged from 6.3-10.2 N/mm² at 7days, 7.5-12.3 N/mm² at 14 days, 9.31-13.7 N/mm² at 28 days, 10.4-16.7 N/mm² at 56days and 13.35- 22.3 N/mm² at 90 days respectively, PC, GHA5 and GHA10 had competitive values up to 28 days, but GHA10 gave the highest values at 56 and 90 days while GHA20 had the lowest values at all ages due to dilution effect. Flexural strengths values at 28 days ranged from 1.08 to 1.87 N/mm² and increased to a range of 1.53-4.10 N/mm² at 90 days. The ANN model gave good prediction for compressive strength of the mortars. This study has shown that groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement improves the strength properties of mortar.

Keywords: compressive strength, groundnut husk ash, mortar, pozzolanic index

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Authors: Raja Al-Ghamdi

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This paper aims to systematically assess the translation of key cultural texts. The paper, therefore, proposes a modification of the discourse analysis model for translation quality assessment introduced by the linguist Juliane House (1977, 1997, 2015). The data for analysis has been chosen from a religious text that has never been investigated before. It is an overt translation of the biography of Prophet Mohammad. The book is written originally in Arabic and translated into English. A soft copy of the translation, entitled The Sealed Nectar, is posted on numerous websites including the Internet Archive library which offers a free access to everyone. The text abounds with linguistic and cultural phenomena relevant to Islamic and Arab lingua-cultural context which make its translation a challenge, as well as its assessment. Interesting findings show that (1) culturemes are rich points and both the translator’s subjectivity and intervention are apparent in mediating them, (2) given the nature of historical narration, the source text reflects the author’s positive shading, whereas the target text reflects the translator’s axiological orientation as neutrally shaded, and, (3) linguistic gaps, metaphorical expressions and intertextuality are major stimuli to compensation strategies.

Keywords: Arabic-English discourse analysis, key cultural texts, overt translation, quality assessment

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Authors: M. Bahari Mehrabani, Hua-Peng Chen

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Management and maintenance of coastal defence structures during the expected life cycle have become a real challenge for decision makers and engineers. Accurate evaluation of the current condition and future performance of flood defence structures is essential for effective practical maintenance strategies on the basis of available field inspection data. Moreover, as coastal defence structures age, it becomes more challenging to implement maintenance and management plans to avoid structural failure. Therefore, condition inspection data are essential for assessing damage and forecasting deterioration of ageing flood defence structures in order to keep the structures in an acceptable condition. The inspection data for flood defence structures are often collected using discrete visual condition rating schemes. In order to evaluate future condition of the structure, a probabilistic deterioration model needs to be utilised. However, existing deterioration models may not provide a reliable prediction of performance deterioration for a long period due to uncertainties. To tackle the limitation, a time-dependent condition-based model associated with a transition probability needs to be developed on the basis of condition grade scheme for flood defences. This paper presents a probabilistic method for predicting future performance deterioration of coastal flood defence structures based on condition grading inspection data and deterioration curves estimated by expert judgement. In condition-based deterioration modelling, the main task is to estimate transition probability matrices. The deterioration process of the structure related to the transition states is modelled according to Markov chain process, and a reliability-based approach is used to estimate the probability of structural failure. Visual inspection data according to the United Kingdom Condition Assessment Manual are used to obtain the initial condition grade curve of the coastal flood defences. The initial curves then modified in order to develop transition probabilities through non-linear regression based optimisation algorithms. The Monte Carlo simulations are then used to evaluate the future performance of the structure on the basis of the estimated transition probabilities. Finally, a case study is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method under no-maintenance and medium-maintenance scenarios. Results show that the proposed method can provide an effective predictive model for various situations in terms of available condition grading data. The proposed model also provides useful information on time-dependent probability of failure in coastal flood defences.

Keywords: condition grading, flood defense, performance assessment, stochastic deterioration modelling

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Authors: Tikumporn Rodkhunmuang

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The importance of ‘international law of governance’ is the means and end to deal with international affairs. This research paper seeks to first study the historical development of international law of governance from the classical period of the international legal framework of global governance until the contemporary period of its framework. Second, the international law of governance is extremely turning into the crucial point in its long history because of the changing of China's foreign policies towards ‘One Belt One Road Initiative’. Third, the proposing model of the existing international law of governance within Chinese characteristics will be the new rules and modalities of modern diplomacy and governed international affairs. Methodologically speaking, this research paper is conducting under mixed methods research, which are also included numerical analysis and theoretical considerations. As a result, this research paper is the critical point of the international legal framework of global governance that changing the diplomatic paradigm as well as turning China into a great-power in international politics. So, this research paper is useful for international legal scholars and diplomats for slightly changing their understanding of the rapidly changing their norms from western norms to the eastern norms of international law. Therefore, the outcome of the research is the modern model of China to make a diplomatic relationship with other countries in the global society.

Keywords: global governance, international law, landscape, one belt one road

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Authors: Pyar Singh Jassal, Priti Rani, Rajni Johar

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The adsorption of Pb(II) ions from wastewater using ethylene glycol diglycidyl ether cross-linked magnetic chitosan beads (EGDE-MCB) was carried out by considering a number of parameters. The removal efficiency of the metal ion by magnetic chitosan beads (MCB) and its cross-linked derivatives depended on viz contact time, dose of the adsorbent, pH, temperature, etc. The concentration of Cd( II) at different time intervals was estimated by differential pulse anodic stripping voltammetry (DPSAV) using 797 voltametric analyzer computrace. The adsorption data could be well interpreted by Langmuir and Freundlich adsorption model. The equilibrium parameter, RL values, support that the adsorption (0Keywords: magnetic chitosan beads, ethylene glycol diglycidyl ether, equilibrium parameters, desorption

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Authors: Amel Hannech, Mehdi Adda, Hamid Mcheick

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In computer science, the purpose of finding useful information is still one of the most active and important research topics. The most popular application of information retrieval (IR) are Search Engines, they meet users' specific needs and aim to locate the effective information in the web. However, these search engines have some limitations related to the relevancy of the results and the ease to explore those results. In this context, we proposed in previous works a Multi-Space Search Engine model that is based on a multidimensional interpretation universe. In the present paper, we integrate an additional dimension that allows to offer users new research experiences. The added component is based on creating user profiles and calculating the similarity between them that then allow the use of collaborative filtering in retrieving search results. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, a prototype is developed. The experiments showed that the additional dimension has improved the relevancy of results by predicting the interesting items of users based on their experiences and the experiences of other similar users. The offered personalization service allows users to approve the pertinent items, which allows to enrich their profiles and further improve research.

Keywords: information retrieval, v-facets, user behavior analysis, user profiles, topical ontology, association rules, data personalization

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Authors: Mohammed Cherifi, Abderrahmane Benbrik, Siham Laouar-Meftah, Denis Lemonnier

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The present study was conducted to numerically investigate the interaction of non-gray-gas radiation with opposed mixed convection in a vertical two-sided lid-driven square cavity. The opposing flows are simultaneously generated by the vertical boundary walls which slide at a constant speed and the natural convection due to the gradient temperature of differentially heated cavity. The horizontal walls are thermally insulated and perfectly reflective. The enclosure is filled with air-H2O-CO2 gas mixture, which is considered as a non-gray, absorbing, emitting and not scattering medium. The governing differential equations are solved by a finite-volume method, by adopting the SIMPLER algorithm for pressure–velocity coupling. The radiative transfer equation (RTE) is solved by the discrete ordinates method (DOM). The spectral line weighted sum of gray gases model (SLW) is used to account for non-gray radiation properties. Three cases of the effects of radiation (transparent, gray and non-gray medium) are studied. Comparison is also made with the parametric studies of the effect of the mixed convection parameter, Ri (0.1, 1, 10), on the fluid flow and heat transfer have been performed.

Keywords: opposed mixed convection, non-gray-gas radiation, two-sided lid-driven cavity, discrete ordinate method, SLW model

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Authors: Gina Cecilia Pistol, Loredana Calin, Mariana Stancu, Veronica Chedea, Ionelia Taranu

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Inflammatory-associated diseases have an increased trend in the past decades. The pharmacological strategies aimed to treat these inflammatory diseases are very expensive and with non-beneficial results. The current trend is to find alternative strategies to counteract or to control inflammatory component of diseases. The grape by-products either seeds or pomace are rich in bioactive compounds (e.g. polyphenols) which may be beneficial in prevention of inflammation associated with cancer progression and other pathologies with inflammatory component. The in vivo models are very useful for studying the immune and inflammatory status. The domestic pig (Sus scrofa domesticus) is related to human from anatomic and physiologic point of view, representing a feasible model for studying the human inflammatory pathologies. Starting from these data, we evaluated the effect of a diet containing 5% grape seed cakes (GS) on piglets blood biochemical parameters and immune pro- and anti-inflammatory biomarkers (IL-1 beta, IL-8, TNF-alpha, IL-6, IFN-gamma, IL-10, IL-4) in spleen and lymph nodes. 12 weaned piglets were fed for 30 days with a control diet or an experimental diet containing 5% GS. At the end of trial, plasma and tissue samples (spleen and lymph nodes) were collected and the biochemical and inflammatory markers were analysed by using biochemistry analyser and ELISA techniques. Our results showed that diet included 5% GS did not influence the health status determined by plasma biochemical parameters. Only a tendency for a slight increase of the biochemical parameters associated with energetic profile (glucose, cholesterol, triglycerides) was observed. Also, GS diet had no effect on pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines content in spleen and lymph nodes tissue. Further experiments are needed in order to investigate other rate of dietary inclusion which could provide more evidence about the effect of grape bioactive compounds on pigs used as animal model.

Keywords: animal model, inflammation, grape seed by-product, immune organs

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Authors: Roghieh Eskandari, Ali Motamedi

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There is a significant demand for renovation as-built assets are aging. To plan for a desirable and comfortable indoor environment, stakeholders use simulation technics to assess potential renovation scenarios with the innovative designs. Diminished Reality (DR), which is a technique of visually removing unwanted objects from the real-world scene in real-time, can contribute to the renovation design visualization for stakeholders by removing existing structures and assets from the scene. Using DR, the objects to be demolished or changed will be visually removed from the scene for a better understanding of the intended design scenarios for stakeholders. This research proposes an integrated system for renovation plan visualization using Building Information Modelling (BIM) data and mixed reality (MR) technologies. It presents a BIM-based DR method that utilizes a textured BIM model of the environment to accurately register the virtual model of the occluded background to the physical world in real-time. This system can facilitate the simulation of the renovation plan by visually diminishing building elements in an indoor environment.

Keywords: diminished reality, building information modelling, mixed reality, stock renovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Jiemiao Chen, Shuoxun Xu

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The main goal of our research is to apply the Vine copula measuring dependency between price, temperature, and precipitation indices to calculate a fair crop insurance premium. This research is focused on Worth, Iowa, United States, over the period from 2000 to 2020, where the farmers are dependent on precipitation and average temperature during the growth period of corn. Our proposed insurance considers both the natural risk and the price risk in agricultural production. We first estimate the distributions of crops using parametric methods based on Goodness of Fit tests, and then Vine Copula is applied to model dependence between yield price, crop yield, and weather indices. Once the vine structure and its parameters are determined based on AIC/BIC criteria and forecasting price and yield are obtained from the ARIMA model, we calculate this crop insurance premium using the simulation data generated from the vine copula by the Monte Carlo Simulation method. It is shown that, compared with traditional crop insurance, our proposed insurance is more fair and thus less costly for the farmers and government.

Keywords: vine copula, weather index, crop insurance premium, insurance risk management, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are expected to alter agricultural productivity patterns worldwide. The interactive effects of soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that determine crop yield and are sensitive to climatic changes. The study assessed the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and corresponding water productivity and nutrient use efficiency under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid (2041-2070) and end century (2071-2100). Projected impacts were evaluated using climate scenarios generated from four General Circulation Models (GCMs) dynamically downscaled by the Swedish RCA4 Regional Climate Model (RCM) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5). Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate yield, water and nutrient use for the study periods. Results indicate that rainfed maize yield might decrease on average by 16.5 and 23% by the 2050s and 2080s, respectively, due to climate change. Water productivity is expected to decline on average by 2.2 and 12% in the CRV by mid and end centuries with respect to the baseline. Nutrient uptake and corresponding nutrient use efficiency (NUE) might also be negatively affected by climate change. Phosphorus uptake probably will decrease in the CRV on average by 14.5 to 18% by 2050s, while N uptake may not change significantly at Melkassa. Nitrogen and P use efficiency indicators showed decreases in the range between 8.5 to 10.5% and between 9.3 to 10.5%, respectively, by 2050s relative to the baseline average. The simulation results further indicated that a combination of increased water availability and optimum nutrient application might increase both water productivity and nutrient use efficiency in the changed climate, which can ensure modest production in the future. Potential options that can improve water availability and nutrient uptake should be identified for the study locations using a crop modeling approach.

Keywords: crop model, climate change scenario, nutrient uptake, nutrient use efficiency, water productivity

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Authors: Srinivasa Rao Idapalapati, Manssour Habbash

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As mobile connectedness continues to sweep across the landscape, the value of deploying mobile technology to the service of learning and teaching appears to be both self-evident and unavoidable. To this end, this study explores the reasons for the reluctance of teachers in Saudi Arabia to use mobiles in EFL (English as a Foreign Language) classes for teaching and learning purposes. The main objective of this study is a qualitative analysis of the responses of the views of the teachers at a university in Saudi Arabia about the use of mobile phones in classrooms for educational purposes. Driven by the hypothesis that the teachers in Saudi Arabian universities aren’t prepared well enough to use mobile phones in classrooms for educational purposes, this study examines the data obtained through a questionnaire provided to about hundred teachers working at a university in Saudi Arabia through convenient sampling method. The responses are analyzed by qualitative interpretive method and found that teachers and the students are in confusion whether to use mobiles, and need some training sessions on the use of mobile phones in classrooms for educational purposes. The outcome of the analysis is discussed in light of the concerns bases adoption model and the inferences are provided in a descriptive mode.

Keywords: mobile assisted language learning, technology adoption, classroom instruction, concerns based adoption model

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Authors: Basit Aftab, Zhichao Wang, Feng Zhongke

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Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) is a critical environmental issue that has significant effects on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and climate change. This study examines the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) across a three-decade period (1992–2022) in a district area. The goal is to support sustainable land management and urban planning by utilizing the combination of remote sensing, GIS data, and observations from Landsat satellites 5 and 8 to provide precise predictions of the trajectory of urban sprawl. In order to forecast the LULCC patterns, this study suggests a hybrid strategy that combines the Random Forest method with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Markov Chain analysis. To predict the dynamics of LULC change for the year 2035, a hybrid technique based on multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Model Analysis (MLP-MCA) was employed. The area of developed land has increased significantly, while the amount of bare land, vegetation, and forest cover have all decreased. This is because the principal land types have changed due to population growth and economic expansion. The study also discovered that between 1998 and 2023, the built-up area increased by 468 km² as a result of the replacement of natural resources. It is estimated that 25.04% of the study area's urbanization will be increased by 2035. The performance of the model was confirmed with an overall accuracy of 90% and a kappa coefficient of around 0.89. It is important to use advanced predictive models to guide sustainable urban development strategies. It provides valuable insights for policymakers, land managers, and researchers to support sustainable land use planning, conservation efforts, and climate change mitigation strategies.

Keywords: land use land cover, Markov chain model, multi-layer perceptron, random forest, sustainable land, remote sensing.

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Authors: Sheila Santharamohana, Susan Bennett

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Historically, the attrition rates in secondary schools of Indigenous people or Orang Asli of Malaysia have been a cause for nationwide concern. Efforts to increase student engagement focusing on curriculum re-design and aid have not had the targeted impact. The scope of the research explored a change model incorporating project-based learning and wrap-around support through school-community partnerships to increase Orang Asli engagement, student outcomes and improve cultural connectedness. The evaluation methodology was mixed-method comprising a student questionnaire, interviews, and document analysis. Data and evidence were gathered from school staff, community, the Orang Asli governmental authority (JAKOA) and external agencies. Findings from the year-long research suggests shared values and goals in school-community partnerships foster responsive leadership and is key to safeguarding vulnerable Orang Asli, resulting in improved student outcomes. The research highlighted the barriers to the recognition and distinct needs and unique values of the Orang Asli that impact their educational equity and outcomes.

Keywords: Indigenous Education, Cultural Connectedness, School-Community Partnership, Student Outcomes

Procedia PDF Downloads 140