Search results for: risk of infection
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6995

Search results for: risk of infection

6365 A Literature Review on the Effect of Financial Knowledge toward Corporate Growth: The Important Role of Financial Risk Attitude

Authors: Risna Wijayanti, Sumiati, Hanif Iswari

Abstract:

This study aims to analyze the role of financial risk attitude as a mediation between financial knowledge and business growth. The ability of human resources in managing capital (financial literacy) can be a major milestone for a company's business to grow and build its competitive advantage. This study analyzed the important role of financial risk attitude in bringing about financial knowledge on corporate growth. There have been many discussions arguing that financial knowledge is one of the main abilities of corporate managers in determining the success of managing a company. However, a contrary argument of other scholars also enlightened that financial knowledge did not have a significant influence on corporate growth. This study used literatures' review to analyze whether there is another variable that can mediate the effect of financial knowledge toward corporate growth. Research mapping was conducted to analyze the concept of risk tolerance. This concept was related to people's risk aversion effects when making a decision under risk and the role of financial knowledge on changes in financial income. Understanding and managing risks and investments are complicated, in particular for corporate managers, who are always demanded to maintain their corporate growth. Substantial financial knowledge is extremely needed to identify and take accurate information for corporate financial decision-making. By reviewing several literature, this study hypothesized that financial knowledge of corporate managers would be meaningless without manager's courage to bear risks for taking favorable business opportunities. Therefore, the level of risk aversion from corporate managers will determine corporate action, which is a reflection of corporate-level investment behavior leading to attain corporate success or failure for achieving the company's expected growth rate.

Keywords: financial knowledge, financial risk attitude, corporate growth, risk tolerance

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6364 The Impact of Financial Literacy, Perception of Debt, and Perception of Risk Toward Student Willingness to Use Online Student Loan

Authors: Irni Rahmayani Johan, Ira Kamelia

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One of the impacts of the rapid advancement of technology is the rise of digital finance, including peer-to-peer lending (P2P). P2P lending has been widely marketed, including an online student loan that used the P2P platform. This study aims to analyze the effect of financial literacy, perception of debt, and perception of risk toward student willingness to use the online student loan (P2P lending). Using a cross-sectional study design, in collecting the data this study employed an online survey method, with a total sample of 280 undergraduate students of IPB university, Indonesia. This study found that financial literacy, perception of debt, perception of risk, and interest in using online student loans are categorized as low level. While the level of knowledge is found to be the lowest, the first-year students showed a higher level in terms of willingness to use the online student loan. In addition, the second year students recorded a positive perception toward debt. This study showed that level of study, attendance in personal finance course, and student’ GPA is positively related to financial knowledge. While debt perception is negatively related to financial attitudes. Similarly, the negative relationship is found between risk perception and the willingness to use the online student loan. The determinant factor of the willingness to use online student loans is the level of study, debt perception, financial risk perception, and time risk perception. Students with a higher level of study are more likely to have a lower interest in using online student loans. Moreover, students who perceived debt as a financial stimulator, as well as those with higher level of financial risk perceptions and time risk perceptions, tend to show more interest to use the loan.

Keywords: financial literacy, willingness to use, online student loan, perception of risk, perception of debt

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6363 Detecting Overdispersion for Mortality AIDS in Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Death Rate (ZINBDR) Co-infection Patients in Kelantan

Authors: Mohd Asrul Affedi, Nyi Nyi Naing

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Overdispersion is present in count data, and basically when a phenomenon happened, a Negative Binomial (NB) is commonly used to replace a standard Poisson model. Analysis of count data event, such as mortality cases basically Poisson regression model is appropriate. Hence, the model is not appropriate when existing a zero values. The zero-inflated negative binomial model is appropriate. In this article, we modelled the mortality cases as a dependent variable by age categorical. The objective of this study to determine existing overdispersion in mortality data of AIDS co-infection patients in Kelantan.

Keywords: negative binomial death rate, overdispersion, zero-inflation negative binomial death rate, AIDS

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6362 Contingency Screening Using Risk Factor Considering Transmission Line Outage

Authors: M. Marsadek, A. Mohamed

Abstract:

Power system security analysis is the most time demanding process due to large number of possible contingencies that need to be analyzed.  In a power system, any contingency resulting in security violation such as line overload or low voltage may occur for a number of reasons at any time.  To efficiently rank a contingency, both probability and the extent of security violation must be considered so as not to underestimate the risk associated with the contingency. This paper proposed a contingency ranking method that take into account the probabilistic nature of power system and the severity of contingency by using a newly developed method based on risk factor.  The proposed technique is implemented on IEEE 24-bus system.

Keywords: line overload, low voltage, probability, risk factor, severity

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6361 Control of Asthma in Children with Asthma during the Containment Period following the Covid-19 Pandemic

Authors: Meryam Labyad, Karima Fakiri, Widad Lahmini, Ghizlane Draiss, Mohamed Bouskraoui, Nadia Ouzennou

Abstract:

Background: Asthma is the most common chronic disease in children, affecting nearly 235 million people worldwide (OMS). In Morocco, asthma is much more common in children than in adults; the prevalence rate in children between 13 and 14 years of age is 20%.1 This pathology is marked by high morbidity, a significant impact on the quality of life and development of children 2 This requires a rigorous management strategy in order to achieve clinical control and reduce any risk to the patient 3 A search for aggravating factors is mandatory if a child has difficulty maintaining good asthma control. The objective of the present study is to describe asthma control during this confinement period in children aged 4 to 11 years followed by a pneumo-paediatric consultation. For children whose asthma is not controlled, a search for associations with promoting factors and adherence to treatment is also among the objectives of the study. Knowing the level of asthma control and influencing factors is a therapeutic priority in order to reduce hospitalizations and emergency care use. Objective: To assess asthma control and determine the factors influencing asthma levels in children with asthma during confinement following the COVID 19 pandemic. Method: Prospective cross-sectional study by questionnaire and structured interview among 66 asthmatic children followed in pediatric pneumology consultation at the CHU MED VI of Marrakech from 13/06/2020 to 13/07/2020, asthma control was assessed by the Childhood Asthma Control Test (C-ACT). Results: 66 children and their parents were included (mean age is 7.5 years), asthma was associated with allergic rhinitis (13.5% of cases), conjunctivitis (9% of cases), eczema (12% of cases), occurrence of infection (10.5% of cases). The period of confinement was marked by a decrease in the number of asthma attacks translated by a decrease in the number of emergency room visits (7.5%) of these asthmatic children, control was well controlled in 71% of the children, this control was significantly associated with good adherence to treatment (p<0.001), no infection (p<0.001) and no conjunctivitis (p=002) or rhinitis (p<0.001). This improvement in asthma control during confinement can be explained by the measures taken in the Kingdom to prevent the spread of COVID 19 (school closures, reduction in industrial activity, fewer means of transport, etc.), leading to a decrease in children's exposure to triggers, which justifies the decrease in the number of children having had an infection, allergic rhinitis or conjunctivitis during this period. In addition, the close monitoring of parents resulted in better therapeutic adherence (42.4% were fully observant). Confinement was positively perceived by 68% of the parents; this perception is significantly associated with the level of asthma control (p<0.001). Conclusion: Maintaining good control can be achieved through improved therapeutic adherence and avoidance of triggers, both of which were achieved during the containment period following the VIDOC pandemic 19.

Keywords: Asthma, control , COVID-19 , children

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
6360 Apricot Insurance Portfolio Risk

Authors: Kasirga Yildirak, Ismail Gur

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We propose a model to measure hail risk of an Agricultural Insurance portfolio. Hail is one of the major catastrophic event that causes big amount of loss to an insurer. Moreover, it is very hard to predict due to its strange atmospheric characteristics. We make use of parcel based claims data on apricot damage collected by the Turkish Agricultural Insurance Pool (TARSIM). As our ultimate aim is to compute the loadings assigned to specific parcels, we build a portfolio risk model that makes use of PD and the severity of the exposures. PD is computed by Spherical-Linear and Circular –Linear regression models as the data carries coordinate information and seasonality. Severity is mapped into integer brackets so that Probability Generation Function could be employed. Individual regressions are run on each clusters estimated on different criteria. Loss distribution is constructed by Panjer Recursion technique. We also show that one risk-one crop model can easily be extended to the multi risk–multi crop model by assuming conditional independency.

Keywords: hail insurance, spherical regression, circular regression, spherical clustering

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6359 A Risk-Based Approach to Construction Management

Authors: Chloe E. Edwards, Yasaman Shahtaheri

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Risk management plays a fundamental role in project planning and delivery. The purpose of incorporating risk management into project management practices is to identify and address uncertainties related to key project-related activities. The uncertainties, known as risk events, can relate to project deliverables that are quantifiable and are often measured by impact to project schedule, cost, or environmental impact. Risk management should be incorporated as an iterative practice throughout the planning, execution, and commissioning phases of a project. This paper specifically examines how risk management contributes to effective project planning and delivery through a case study of a transportation project. This case study focused solely on impacts to project schedule regarding three milestones: readiness for delivery, readiness for testing and commissioning, and completion of the facility. The case study followed the ISO 31000: Risk Management – Guidelines. The key factors that are outlined by these guidelines include understanding the scope and context of the project, conducting a risk assessment including identification, analysis, and evaluation, and lastly, risk treatment through mitigation measures. This process requires continuous consultation with subject matter experts and monitoring to iteratively update the risks accordingly. The risk identification process led to a total of fourteen risks related to design, permitting, construction, and commissioning. The analysis involved running 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations through @RISK 8.0 Industrial software to determine potential milestone completion dates based on the project baseline schedule. These dates include the best case, most likely case, and worst case to provide an estimated delay for each milestone. Evaluation of these results provided insight into which risks were the highest contributors to the projected milestone completion dates. Based on the analysis results, the risk management team was able to provide recommendations for mitigation measures to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring. The risk management team also provided recommendations for managing the identified risks and project activities moving forward to meet the most likely or best-case milestone completion dates.

Keywords: construction management, monte carlo simulation, project delivery, risk assessment, transportation engineering

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6358 Assessment of Mortgage Applications Using Fuzzy Logic

Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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6357 Varietal Behavior of Some Chickpea Genotypes to Wilt Disease Induced by Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. ciceris

Authors: Rouag N., Khalifa M. W., Bencheikh A., Abed H.

Abstract:

The behavior study of forty-two varieties and genotypes of chickpeas regarding root wilt disease induced by Fusarium oxysporum under the natural conditions of infection was conducted at the ITGC experimental station in Sétif. The infected plants of the different chickpea genotypes have shown multiple symptoms in the field caused by the local strain of Fusarium oxysporum f.sp.cecris belonging to race II of the pathogen. These symptoms ranged from lateral or partial wilting of some ramifications to total desiccation of the plant, sometimes combined with the very slow growth of symptomatic plants. The results of the search for sources of resistance to Fusarium wilt of chickpeas in the 42 genotypes tested revealed that in terms of infection rate, the presence of 7 groups and no genotype showed absolute resistance. While in terms of severity, the results revealed the presence of three homogeneous groups. The first group formed by the most resistant genotypes, in this case, Flip10-368C; Flip11-77C; Flip11-186C; Flip11-124C; Flip11-142C, Flip11-152C; Flip11-69C; Ghab 05; Flip11-159C; Flip11-90C; Flip10-357C and Flip11-37C while the second group is the FLIP genotype 10-382C which was found to be the most sensitive for the natural infection test. Thus, the genotypes of Cicer arietinum L., which have shown significant levels of resistance to Fusarium wilt, can be integrated into breeding and improvement programs.

Keywords: chickpea, Cicer arietinum, Fusarium oxysporum, genotype resistance

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6356 Risk Management in Construction Projects

Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

Abstract:

Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 309
6355 Comparison of Food Products Contaminated by DDTs in South Africa and Mozambique

Authors: Lesa A. Thompson, Yoshinori Ikenaka, Victor Wepener, Mayumi Ishizuka

Abstract:

One method for controlling malaria in endemic regions is the killing of vector mosquitoes using pesticides such as DDT in indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study was carried out to investigate the presence of and human health risk due to DDT and its metabolites (collectively, DDTs) contaminating human food sources in areas where DDT is used for IRS. Free-range chicken products (meat and eggs) were collected from homesteads in KwaZulu-Natal Province in the northeast of South Africa, and fish meat samples from Maputo Bay in neighbouring Mozambique. Samples were analysed for DDTs (o,p’-DDT, p,p’-DDT, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDE and p,p’-DDE) using a gas chromatograph with electron capture detector (GC-ECD). DDTs were detected in all food types, with the predominant congener being p,p’-DDE. The presence of p,p’-DDT confirmed recent release of DDT into the environment. By using concentration levels detected in foods and national consumption levels, the risk to human health through consumption of such food products was calculated. In order of risk level, these were: chicken eggs > chicken meat > fish meat. Human risk (carcinogenic) values greater than one suggest there is an increased health risk through consumption of these foods.

Keywords: DDT, food contamination, human health risk, Mozambique, South Africa

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6354 Treatment of Isosporiasis in Neonate Dogs – Case Report

Authors: Maria Lucia G. Lourenco, Viviane Y. Hibaru, Keylla H. N. P. Pereira, Fabiana F. Souza, Joao C. P. Ferreira, Simone B. Chiacchio, Luiz H. A. Machado

Abstract:

Isosporiasis is an affliction caused by coccidial protozoa belonging to genera Isospora spp. or Cystoisospora spp., which may parasitize the small and large intestines of dogs, of which neonates and young animals present higher risk of infection. This study aims at reporting a case of isosporiasis in neonate Pitbull dogs, as well as the diagnosis and treatment. Seven Pitbull puppies were admitted to the São Paulo State University (UNESP) Veterinary Hospital, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil, with history of yellowish diarrhea without mucus or blood for the past two days. The animals were five days old. The history of the mother, a primiparous two-year-old, revealed that she was properly vaccinated, not de-wormed and did not present diarrhea. The clinical examination revealed that the neonates weighted between 308 and 360 grams, and presented normal reflexes, moderate dehydration, body temperatures between 36.8 and 37.2 ºC, blood sugar between 103 and 124 mg/dL and normal appetite. A full blood count and a parasitology assay were performed to aid in the diagnosis. The full blood count detected eosinophilia, without any other relevant alterations. The parasitology assay (Willis-Molly & Faust) revealed the presence of Cystoisospora spp. The treatment was instituted with heated fluid therapy with Ringer’s Lactate (4 mL/100 g, subcutaneous) and antibiotic therapy with sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (15 mg/kg, orally) every 12 hours for ten days. The mother and other dogs that came in contact with the newborns were also treated. The environment was disinfected for 10 minutes with 1.6% quaternary ammonium. After 10 days, the newborns presented normal clinical signs and no alterations in the full blood count. Isosporiasis is an affliction with high mortality rates in litters that should be diagnosed and treated as soon as possible to increase the survival rates in these patients.

Keywords: Cystoisospora spp., neonatal infection, puppies, diarrhea,

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6353 SiO2-Ag+Chlorex vs SilverSulfaDiazine: An 'in vitro' and 'in vivo' Silver Challenge

Authors: Roberto Cassino, Valeria Dissette, Carlo Alberto Bignozzi, Daniele Pazzi

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Background and Aims: The aim of this work was to investigate, both ‘in vitro’ and ‘in vivo’, if the new SCX technology (SiO2-Ag+Chlorex) can easily defeat infections and it is really more effective than SSD (SilverSulfaDiazine). ‘In vitro’ methods: we tested ‘in vitro’ the effectiveness of both silver materials using a pool of 5 strains: Pseudomonas Aeruginosa, Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia Coli, Enterococcus hirae and Candida Albicans. 100 µl of this pool have been seeded on Petri dishes and kept for 24 hours in incubation at 37 C°. ‘In vivo’ methods: we enrolled patients with multiple infectious chronic wounds (according with cutting & harding criteria for infection); after a qualitative evaluation of the wounds bacterial population, taking a sample by plug, we included in the study 6 patients for a total of 10 wounds, infected by one or more of the microorganisms used for the ‘in vitro’ test. The protocol consisted of a treatment with a spray powder of SSD every 48 hours for 14 days; in case of worsening we should have to start a new treatment with a spray powder containing silicon dioxide, ionic silver and chlorexidine (SiO2-Ag+Chlorex) every 48 hours for 14 days. We evaluated the number of clinical signs of infection and the disappearance or not of the wound edge erithema. ‘In vitro’ results: SSD demonstrated a wide zone of inhibition within 24 hours, but after 5 days there was no more signs of inhibition; on the contrary SCX had a good inhibition ring that lasted more than 5 days. ‘In vivo’ results: all wounds treated with SSD got worse; the signs of infection increased and the wound edge erithema did not disappear. According with the protocol, we treated then all wounds with SCX and they all improved within the period of observation with complete disappearance of clinical signs of infection and no more wound edge erithema. Conclusions: the study demonstrated the effectiveness of SiO2-Ag+Chlorex, especially in terms of long lasting antimicrobial action. We had the same results ‘in vitro’, so that there has been a perfect correspondence between the laboratory outcomes and the clinical ones.

Keywords: chronic wounds, infections, ionic silver, SSD

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6352 Total Longitudinal Displacement (tLoD) of the Common Carotid Artery (CCA) Does Not Differ between Patients with Moderate or High Cardiovascular Risk (CV) and Patients after Acute Myocardial Infarction (AMI)

Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

Abstract:

Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

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6351 A Development of a Conceptual Framework for Safety Culture and Safety Risk Assessment: The Case of Chinese International Construction Projects under the “New Belt and Road” Initiative in Africa

Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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6350 Scale up of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy: A Quality Management Approach in Nairobi County, Kenya

Authors: E. Omanya, E. Mueni, G. Makau, M. Kariuki

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HIV infection is the strongest risk factor for a person to develop TB. Isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for People Living with HIV (PLWHIV) not only reduces the individual patients’ risk of developing active TB but mitigates cross infection. In Kenya, IPT for six months was recommended through the National TB, Leprosy and Lung Disease Program to treat latent TB. In spite of this recommendation by the national government, uptake of IPT among PLHIV remained low in Kenya by the end of 2015. The USAID/Kenya and East Africa Afya Jijini project, which supports 42 TBHIV health facilities in Nairobi County, began addressing low uptake of IPT through Quality Improvement (QI) teams set up at the facility level. Quality is characterized by WHO as one of the four main connectors between health systems building blocks and health systems outputs. Afya Jijini implements the Kenya Quality Model for Health, which involves QI teams being formed at the county, sub-county and facility levels. The teams review facility performance to identify gaps in service delivery and use QI tools to monitor and improve performance. Afya Jijini supported the formation of these teams in 42 facilities and built the teams’ capacity to review data and use QI principles to identify and address performance gaps. When the QI teams began working on improving IPT uptake among PLHIV, uptake was at 31.8%. The teams first conducted a root cause analysis using cause and effect diagrams, which help the teams to brainstorm on and to identify barriers to IPT uptake among PLHIV at the facility level. This is a participatory process where program staff provides technical support to the QI teams in problem identification and problem-solving. The gaps identified were inadequate knowledge and skills on the use of IPT among health care workers, lack of awareness of IPT by patients, inadequate monitoring and evaluation tools, and poor quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities. In response, Afya Jijini trained over 300 health care workers on the administration of IPT, supported patient education, supported quantification and forecasting of IPT commodities, and provided IPT data collection tools to help facilities monitor their performance. The facility QI teams conducted monthly meetings to monitor progress on implementation of IPT and took corrective action when necessary. IPT uptake improved from 31.8% to 61.2% during the second year of the Afya Jijini project and improved to 80.1% during the third year of the project’s support. Use of QI teams and root cause analysis to identify and address service delivery gaps, in addition to targeted program interventions and continual performance reviews, can be successful in increasing TB related service delivery uptake at health facilities.

Keywords: isoniazid, quality, health care workers, people leaving with HIV

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6349 Correlation between Seismic Risk Insurance Indexes and Uninhabitability Indexes of Buildings in Morocco

Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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6348 A Deep-Learning Based Prediction of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma with Electronic Health Records from the State of Maine

Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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6347 Blood Clot Emulsification via Ultrasonic Thrombolysis Device

Authors: Sun Tao, Lou Liang, Tan Xing Haw Marvin, Gu Yuandong Alex

Abstract:

Patients with blood clots in their brains can experience problems with their vision or speech, seizures and general weakness. To treat blood clots, clinicians presently have two options. The first involves drug therapy to thin the blood and thus reduce the clot. The second choice is to invasively remove the clot using a plastic tube called a catheter. Both approaches carry a high risk of bleeding, and invasive procedures, such as catheter intervention, can also damage the blood vessel wall and cause infection. Ultrasonic treatment as a potential alternative therapy to break down clots is attracting growing interests due to the reduced adverse effects. To demonstrate the concept, in this investigation a microfabricated ultrasonic device was electrically packaged with printed circuit board to treat healthy human blood. The red blood cells could be broken down after 3-hour ultrasonic treatment.

Keywords: microfabrication, blood clot, ultrasonic thrombolysis device, ultrasonic device

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6346 Comparison of Serological and Molecular Diagnosis of Cerebral Toxoplasmosis in Blood and Cerebrospinal Fluid in HIV Infected Patients

Authors: Berredjem Hajira, Benlaifa Meriem, Becheker Imene, Bardi Rafika, Djebar Med Reda

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Recent acquired or reactivation T.gondii infection is a serious complication in HIV patients. Classical serological diagnosis relies on the detection of anti-Toxoplasma immunoglobulin ; however, serology may be unreliable in HIV immunodeficient patients who fail to produce significant titers of specific antibodies. PCR assays allow a rapid diagnosis of Toxoplasma infection. In this study, we compared the value of the PCR for diagnosing active toxoplasmosis in cerebrospinal fluid and blood samples from HIV patients. Anti-Toxoplasma antibodies IgG and IgM titers were determined by ELISA. In parallel, nested PCR targeting B1 gene and conventional PCR-ELISA targeting P30 gene were used to detect T. gondii DNA in 25 blood samples and 12 cerebrospinal fluid samples from patients in whom toxoplasmic encephalitis was confirmed by clinical investigations. A total of 15 negative controls were used. Serology did not contribute to confirm toxoplasmic infection, as IgG and IgM titers decreased early. Only 8 out 25 blood samples and 5 out 12 cerebrospinal fluid samples PCRs yielded a positive result. 5 patients with confirmed toxoplasmosis had positive PCR results in either blood or cerebrospinal fluid samples. However, conventional nested B1 PCR gave best results than the P30 gene one for the detection of T.gondii DNA in both samples. All samples from control patients were negative. This study demonstrates the unusefulness of the serological tests and the high sensitivity and specificity of PCR in the diagnosis of toxoplasmic encephalitis in HIV patients.

Keywords: cerebrospinal fluid, HIV, Toxoplasmosis, PCR

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6345 Mitigating Supply Chain Risk for Sustainability Using Big Data Knowledge: Evidence from the Manufacturing Supply Chain

Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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6344 A Case of Prosthetic Vascular-Graft Infection Due to Mycobacterium fortuitum

Authors: Takaaki Nemoto

Abstract:

Case presentation: A 69-year-old Japanese man presented with a low-grade fever and fatigue that had persisted for one month. The patient had an aortic dissection on the aortic arch 13 years prior, an abdominal aortic aneurysm seven years prior, and an aortic dissection on the distal aortic arch one year prior, which were all treated with artificial blood-vessel replacement surgery. Laboratory tests revealed an inflammatory response (CRP 7.61 mg/dl), high serum creatinine (Cr 1.4 mg/dL), and elevated transaminase (AST 47 IU/L, ALT 45 IU/L). The patient was admitted to our hospital on suspicion of prosthetic vascular graft infection. Following further workups on the inflammatory response, an enhanced chest computed tomography (CT) and a non-enhanced chest DWI (MRI) were performed. The patient was diagnosed with a pulmonary fistula and a prosthetic vascular graft infection on the distal aortic arch. After admission, the patient was administered Ceftriaxion and Vancomycine for 10 days, but his fever and inflammatory response did not improve. On day 13 of hospitalization, a lung fistula repair surgery and an omental filling operation were performed, and Meropenem and Vancomycine were administered. The fever and inflammatory response continued, and therefore we took repeated blood cultures. M. fortuitum was detected in a blood culture on day 16 of hospitalization. As a result, we changed the treatment regimen to Amikacin (400 mg/day), Meropenem (2 g/day), and Cefmetazole (4 g/day), and the fever and inflammatory response began to decrease gradually. We performed a test of sensitivity for Mycobacterium fortuitum, and found that the MIC was low for fluoroquinolone antibacterial agent. The clinical course was good, and the patient was discharged after a total of 8 weeks of intravenous drug administration. At discharge, we changed the treatment regimen to Levofloxacin (500 mg/day) and Clarithromycin (800 mg/day), and prescribed these two drugs as a long life suppressive therapy. Discussion: There are few cases of prosthetic vascular graft infection caused by mycobacteria, and a standard therapy remains to be established. For prosthetic vascular graft infections, it is ideal to provide surgical and medical treatment in parallel, but in this case, surgical treatment was difficult and, therefore, a conservative treatment was chosen. We attempted to increase the treatment success rate of this refractory disease by conducting a susceptibility test for mycobacteria and treating with different combinations of antimicrobial agents, which was ultimately effective. With our treatment approach, a good clinical course was obtained and continues at the present stage. Conclusion: Although prosthetic vascular graft infection resulting from mycobacteria is a refractory infectious disease, it may be curative to administer appropriate antibiotics based on the susceptibility test in addition to surgical treatment.

Keywords: prosthetic vascular graft infection, lung fistula, Mycobacterium fortuitum, conservative treatment

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6343 The Nursing Profession in Algeria between Humane Treatment and Work Environment Problems - A Field Study

Authors: Bacha Zakaria

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the reality of humane treatment and work environment problems for nurses in public hospitals and their repercussions on the patients arriving there. In this curve, our field study was based on a sample of nurses in Algiers hospitals estimated at 100 nurses. The questionnaire prepared by the two researchers was applied face to face with the nurses, and after obtaining and analyzing the data, we concluded the most important results: The presence of many problems in the work environment, such as work pressures, lack of appreciation, verbal and physical violence, risk of infection, poor salary and incentives, working during fatigue, administrative problems etc. And accordingly, The embodiment of humane dealing with patients requires providing a humane work environment for nurses and dealing with them humanely so that they embody positive behaviors while dealing with patients.

Keywords: nursing, future, family-focused care, health equity

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6342 The Differences between Direct Examination and ELISA Test during the Diagnosis of Fasciolosis in Jaundiced Slaughtered Sheep in Iraq

Authors: Azad A. Meerkhan, Alaa Hani Razak, Bayan M. S. Younis

Abstract:

The efficiency of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in sheep infected with Fasciola hepatica was studied. 232 jaundiced sheep among 5208 sheep slaughter in the Duhok abattoir (regardless of the age and gender) between the period of May. 2012 to Oct. 2012 were examined by direct examination (Searching of adult flukes in the bile duct) and by Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect the prevalence of fascioliasis in the studied population which showed a high observed infection ratio in Sep. 2012 (12.2%) with the high (ELISA) result of infection in May. 2012 (25.36%). Significant differences were found between the two ways in all of the months with the highest difference in May. 2012 and the net deference between the both ways was 6.91%.

Keywords: fascioliasis, Fasciola hepatica, layers, liver fluk, ELISA, direct examination

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6341 Assessing Psycho-Social Stressors for Chronically Infected Hepatitis C Virus Patients in Egypt

Authors: Ammal M. Metwally, Dalia M. Elmosalami, Walaa A. Fouad, Abla G. Khalifa, Lobna A. El Etreby, Mohamed AbdelRahman

Abstract:

People with hepatitis C are likely to experience psychological distress related to adjustment issues following diagnosis. Objective: The study was conducted to determine the psycho-social stressors accompanying Hepatitis C virus (HCV) chronic infection. The study focused on immediate and later on reactions to being diagnosed as infected HCV patients. Effect of HCV on disruption of patients’ relationships in term of family relationship and friendship, employment and financial status was assessed. The magnitude and causes of the social stigma and its relation to awareness about illness, level of education were also assessed. Methods: During this study the subjective experiences of people having HCV was explored through a designed questionnaire targeted 540 cases; 359 males and 181 females from ten out of 21 National Treatment Reference Centers of National Hepatology and Tropical Medicine Research Institutes of Ministry of Health (MOH) hospitals. The study was conducted along a period of six months from September 2011 to March 2012. Results: The study revealed that the financial problems are the commonest problems faced by 75.5 % of the cases. More than 70% of the cases suffered from immediate sadness versus 67.4% suffered from worry. Social stigma was reported by 13 % of HCV +patients, the majority of which were females. Conclusions: Exploring the psychosocial consequences of HCV infection can act as pressing motivators for behavior change needed for limiting HCV endemicity in Egypt.

Keywords: Egypt, HCV infection, psycho-social adjustment, stigma

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6340 Risk Factors for Severe Typhoid Fever in Children: A French Retrospective Study about 78 Cases from 2000-2017 in Six Parisian Hospitals

Authors: Jonathan Soliman, Thomas Cavasino, Virginie Pommelet, Lahouari Amor, Pierre Mornand, Simon Escoda, Nina Droz, Soraya Matczak, Julie Toubiana, François Angoulvant, Etienne Carbonnelle, Albert Faye, Loic de Pontual, Luu-Ly Pham

Abstract:

Background: Typhoid and paratyphoid fever are systemic infections caused by Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi or paratyphi (A, B, C). Children traveling to tropical areas are at risk to contract these diseases which can be complicated. Methods: Clinical, biological and bacteriological data were collected from 78 pediatric cases reported between 2000 and 2017 in six Parisian hospitals. Children aged 0 to 18 years old, with a diagnosis of typhoid or paratyphoid fever confirmed by bacteriological exams, were included. Epidemiologic, clinical, biological features and presence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria or intermediate susceptibility to ciprofloxacin (nalidixic acid resistant) were examined by univariate analysis and by logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors of severe typhoid in children. Results: 84,6% of the children were imported cases of typhoid fever (n=66/78) and 15,4% were autochthonous cases (n=12/78). 89,7% were caused by S.typhi (n=70/78) and 12,8% by S.paratyphi (n=10/78) including 2 co-infections. 19,2% were intrafamilial cases (n=15/78). Median age at diagnosis was 6,4 years-old [6 months-17,9 years]. 28,2% of the cases were complicated forms (n=22/78): digestive (n=8; 10,3%), neurological (n=7; 9%), pulmonary complications (n=4; 5,1%) and hemophagocytic syndrome (n=4; 5,1%). Only 5% of the children had prior immunization with typhoid non-conjugated vaccine (n=4/78). 28% of the cases (n=22/78) were caused by resistant bacteria. Thrombocytopenia and diagnosis delay was significantly associated with severe infection (p= 0.029 and p=0,01). Complicated forms were more common with MDR (p=0,1) and not statistically associated with a young age or sex in this study. Conclusions: Typhoid and paratyphoid fever are not rare in children back from tropical areas. This multicentric pediatric study seems to show that thrombocytopenia, diagnosis delay, and multidrug resistant bacteria are associated with severe typhoid fever and complicated forms in children.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, children, Salmonella enterica typhi and paratyphi, severe typhoid

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6339 Planning Strategies for Urban Flood Mitigation through Different Case Studies of Best Practices across the World

Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

Abstract:

Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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6338 Development of Peptide Inhibitors against Dengue Virus Infection by in Silico Design

Authors: Aussara Panya, Nunghathai Sawasdee, Mutita Junking, Chatchawan Srisawat, Kiattawee Choowongkomon, Pa-Thai Yenchitsomanus

Abstract:

Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global public health problem with approximately 100 million infected cases a year. Presently, there is no approved vaccine or effective drug available; therefore, the development of anti-DENV drug is urgently needed. The clinical reports revealing the positive association between the disease severity and viral titer has been reported previously suggesting that the anti-DENV drug therapy can possibly ameliorate the disease severity. Although several anti-DENV agents showed inhibitory activities against DENV infection, to date none of them accomplishes clinical use in the patients. The surface envelope (E) protein of DENV is critical for the viral entry step, which includes attachment and membrane fusion; thus, the blocking of envelope protein is an attractive strategy for anti-DENV drug development. To search the safe anti-DENV agent, this study aimed to search for novel peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the targeting of E protein using a structure-based in silico design. Two selected strategies has been used including to identify the peptide inhibitor which interfere the membrane fusion process whereby the hydrophobic pocket on the E protein was the target, the destabilization of virion structure organization through the disruption of the interaction between the envelope and membrane proteins, respectively. The molecular docking technique has been used in the first strategy to search for the peptide inhibitors that specifically bind to the hydrophobic pocket. The second strategy, the peptide inhibitor has been designed to mimic the ectodomain portion of membrane protein to disrupt the protein-protein interaction. The designed peptides were tested for the effects on cell viability to measure the toxic to peptide to the cells and their inhibitory assay to inhibit the DENV infection in Vero cells. Furthermore, their antiviral effects on viral replication, intracellular protein level and viral production have been observed by using the qPCR, cell-based flavivirus immunodetection and immunofluorescence assay. None of tested peptides showed the significant effect on cell viability. The small peptide inhibitors achieved from molecular docking, Glu-Phe (EF), effectively inhibited DENV infection in cell culture system. Its most potential effect was observed for DENV2 with a half maximal inhibition concentration (IC50) of 96 μM, but it partially inhibited other serotypes. Treatment of EF at 200 µM on infected cells also significantly reduced the viral genome and protein to 83.47% and 84.15%, respectively, corresponding to the reduction of infected cell numbers. An additional approach was carried out by using peptide mimicking membrane (M) protein, namely MLH40. Treatment of MLH40 caused the reduction of foci formation in four individual DENV serotype (DENV1-4) with IC50 of 24-31 μM. Further characterization suggested that the MLH40 specifically blocked viral attachment to host membrane, and treatment with 100 μM could diminish 80% of viral attachment. In summary, targeting the hydrophobic pocket and M-binding site on the E protein by using the peptide inhibitors could inhibit DENV infection. The results provide proof of-concept for the development of antiviral therapeutic peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the use of a structure-based design targeting conserved viral protein.

Keywords: dengue virus, dengue virus infection, drug design, peptide inhibitor

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6337 Determination of Metalaxyl Efficacy in Controlling Phytophthora palmivora Infection of Durian Using Bioassay

Authors: Supawadee Phetkhajone, Wisuwat Songnuan

Abstract:

Metalaxyl is one of the most common and effective fungicides used to control Phytophthora palmivora infection in durian (Durio zibethinus L.). The efficacy of metalaxyl residue in durian under greenhouse condition was evaluated using bioassay. Durian seedlings were treated with 2 methods of application, spraying, and soil drenching of metalaxyl, at recommended concentration (1000 mg/L). Mock treated samples were treated with 0.1% Tween20 and water for spraying and soil drenching methods, respectively. The experiment was performed in triplicates. Leaves were detached from treated plants at 0, 1, 7, 15, 20, 30, and 60 days after application, inoculated with metalaxyl-resistant and metalaxyl-sensitive isolates of P. palmivora, and incubated in a high humidity chamber for 5 days at room temperature. Metalaxyl efficacy was determined by measuring the lesion size on metalaxyl treated and mock treated samples. The results showed that metalaxyl can control metalaxyl-sensitive isolate of P. palmivora for at least 30 days after application in both methods of application. The metalaxyl-resistant isolate was not inhibited in all treatments. Leaf samples from spraying method showed larger lesions compared to soil drench method. These results demonstrated that metalaxyl applications, especially soil drenching methods showed high efficacy to control metalaxyl-sensitive isolates of P. palmivora, although it cannot control metalaxyl-resistant isolates of P. palmivora in all treatments. These qualitative data indicate that metalaxyl may suitable to control metalaxyl-sensitive isolates of P. palmivora infection.

Keywords: bioassay, degradation, durian, metalaxyl

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6336 Anisakidosis in Turkey: Serological Survey and Risk for Humans

Authors: E. Akdur Öztürk, F. İrvasa Bilgiç, A. Ludovisi , O. Gülbahar, D. Dirim Erdoğan, M. Korkmaz, M. Á. Gómez Morales

Abstract:

Anisakidosis is a zoonotic human fish-borne parasitic disease caused by accidental ingestion of anisakid third-stage larvae (L3) of members of the Anisakidae family present in infected marine fish or cephalopods. Infection with anisakid larvae can lead to gastric, intestinal, extra-gastrointestinal and gastroallergic forms of the disease. Anisakid parasites have been reported in almost all seas, particularly in the Mediterranean Sea. There is a remarkably high level of risk exposure to these zoonotic parasites as they are present in economically and ecologically important fish of Europe. Anisakid L3 larvae have been also detected in several fish species from the Aegean Sea. Turkey is a peninsular country surrounded by Black, Aegean and the Mediterranean Sea. In this country, fishing habit and fishery product consumption are highly common. In recent years, there was also an increase in the consumption of raw fish due to the increasing interest in the cuisine of the Far East countries. In different regions of Turkey, A. simplex (inMerluccius Merluccius Scomber japonicus, Trachurus mediterraneus, Sardina pilchardus, Engraulis encrasicolus, etc.), Anisakis spp., Contraceucum spp., Pseudoterronova spp. and, C. aduncum were identified as well. Although it is accepted both the presence of anisakid parasites in fish and fishery products in Turkey and the presence of Turkish people with allergic manifestations after fish consumption, there are no reports of human anisakiasis in this country. Given the high prevalence of anisakid parasites in the country, the absence of reports is likely not due to the absence of clinical cases rather to the unavailability of diagnostic tools and the low awareness of the presence of this infection. The aim of the study was to set up an IgE-Western Blot (WB) based test to detect the anisakidosis sensitization among Turkish people with a history of allergic manifestation related to fish consumption. To this end, crude worm antigens (CWA) and allergen enriched fraction (50-66% ) were prepared from L3 of A. simplex (s.l.) collected from Lepidopus caudatus fished in the Mediterranean Sea. These proteins were electrophoretically separated and transferred into the nitrocellulose membranes. By WB, specific proteins recognized by positive control serum samples from sensitized patients were visualized on nitrocellulose membranes by a colorimetric reaction. The CWA and 50–66% fraction showed specific bands, mainly due to Ani s 1 (20-22 kD) and Ani s 4 (9-10 kD). So far, a total of 7 serum samples from people with allergic manifestation and positive skin prick test (SPT) after fish consumption, have been tested and all of them resulted negative by WB, indicating the lack of sensitization to anisakids. This preliminary study allowed to set up a specific test and evidence the lack of correlation between both tests, SPT and WB. However, the sample size should be increased to estimate the anisakidosis burden in Turkish people.

Keywords: anisakidosis, fish parasite, serodiagnosis, Turkey

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