Search results for: risk exposure

Authors: P. Serpytis, K. Azukaitis, U. Gargalskaite, R. Navickas, J. Badariene, V. Dzenkeviciute

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Purpose: Total longitudinal displacement (tLoD) of the common carotid artery (CCA) wall is a novel ultrasound marker of vascular function that can be evaluated using modified speckle tracking techniques. Decreased CCA tLoD has already been shown to be associated with diabetes and was shown to predict one year cardiovascular outcome in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) . The aim of our study was to evaluate if CCA tLoD differ between patients with moderate or high cardiovascular (CV) risk and patients after recent acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Methods: 49 patients (54±6 years) with moderate or high CV risk and 42 patients (58±7 years) after recent AMI were included. All patients were non-diabetic. CCA tLoD was evaluated using GE EchoPAC speckle tracking software and expressed as mean of both sides. Data on systolic blood pressure, total and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) level, smoking status and family history of early CV events was evaluated and assessed for association with CCA tLoD. Results: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after MI (0.265±0.128 mm vs. 0.237±0.103 mm, p>0.05). Lower tLoD was associated with lower HDL cholesterol levels (r=0.211, p=0.04) and male sex (0.228±0.1 vs. 0.297±0.134, p=0.01). Conclusions: tLoD of CCA did not differ between patients with moderate or high CV risk and patients with very high CV risk after AMI. However, lower CCA tLoD was significantly associated with low HDL cholesterol levels and male sex.

Keywords: total longitudinal displacement, carotid artery, cardiovascular risk, acute myocardial infarction

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Authors: Bouba Oumarou Aboubakar, HongXia Li, Sardar Annes Farooq

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The Belt and Road Initiative’s success strongly depends on the safety of all the million workers on construction projects sites. As the new BRI is directed toward Africa and meets a completely different culture from the Chinese project managers, maintaining low risk for workers risks shall be closely related to cultural sharing and mutual understanding. This is why this work introduces a cultural-wise safety management framework for Chinese Construction projects in Africa. The theoretical contribution of this paper is an improved risk assessment framework that integrates language, culture and difficulty of controlling risk factors into one approach. Practically, this study provides not only a useful tool for project safety management practitioners but the full understanding of all risks that may arise in the BRI projects in Africa.

Keywords: cultural-wise, safety culture, risk assessment, Chinese construction, BRI projects, Africa

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Authors: Boularas El-Alia, Arbi Raja, Bachir Bouiadjra Sara, Rezk-Kallah Haciba, Rezkkallah Baghdad

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Objectives : To determine the handling practices of cytotoxic drugs and to describe clinical manifestations expressed by hospital personnel of Sidi Bel Abbes during the year 2014. Methods: Sectional descriptive study conducted in 3 center university hospital units (Hematology, Oncology and Urology) and Gynecology of EHS Sidi Bel Abbes. A questionnaire was administered to hospital workers regulary exposed to cytotoxic drugs. A work-place visit was performed to have an overview about working conditions. The Cytotoxic Contact Index (CCI) was calculated for each nurse on a period of 15 working days. Treatment of the results was done using SPSS software. Results: The survey reveals that 22 men and 58 women are exposed to cytotoxic drugs for an average of 7 years. Many symptoms such as ocular irritation (38,75%), throat irritation (56,25%), headache (68,75%), dizziness (43,75%), nausea (37,5%), metallic taste (30%), were reported with high frequency. Are noted in the offspring, 3 congenital anomalies,2 diaphragmatic hernia and a cleft palate. The Cytotoxic Contact Index (CCI) was higher than 3 among Oncology nurses and higher than 1 for most of the nurses of Hematology and Gynecology service. The wearing of personal protective clothing was not respected by all workers: (22/23) wear gloves and (20/23) wear a mask,(5/23) wear a cap, (2/23) wear glasses. Only 3 nurses have benefited from continuous training on handling cytotoxic drugs. Conclusion: This study shows a high occupational exposure risk to cytotoxic drugs among persons handling these drugs and the necessity to apply rigorously all measures related to personal protection awareness and training of personnel to minimize these exposure.

Keywords: cytotoxic drugs, handling, clinical manifestations, hospital staff

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: N. Moradi, C. M. Lopez-Vazquez, H. Garcia Hernandez, F. Rubio Rincon, D. Brdanovic, Mark van Loosdrecht

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Advanced oxidation processes have been widely used for disinfection, removal of residual organic material, and for the removal of emerging contaminants from drinking water and wastewater. Yet, the application of these technologies to sludge treatment processes has not gained enough attention, mostly, considering the complexity of the sludge matrix. In this research, ozone and UV/H₂O₂ treatment were applied for the removal of emerging contaminants from a digestate supernatant. The removal of the following compounds was assessed:(i) salicylic acid (SA) (a surrogate of non-stradiol anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs)), and (ii) sulfamethoxazole (SMX), sulfamethazine (SMN), and tetracycline (TCN) (the most frequent human and animal antibiotics). The ozone treatment was carried out in a plexiglass bubble column reactor with a capacity of 2.7 L; the system was equipped with a stirrer and a gas diffuser. The UV and UV/H₂O₂ treatments were done using a LED set-up (PearlLab beam device) dosing H₂O₂. In the ozone treatment evaluations, 95 % of the three antibiotics were removed during the first 20 min of exposure time, while an SA removal of 91 % occurred after 8 hours of exposure time. In the UV treatment evaluations, when adding the optimum dose of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂:COD molar ratio of 0.634), 36% of SA, 82% of TCN, and more than 90 % of both SMX and SMN were removed after 8 hours of exposure time. This study concluded that O₃ was more effective than UV/H₂O₂ in removing emerging contaminants from the digestate supernatant.

Keywords: digestate sludge, emerging contaminants, ozone, UV-AOP

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Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

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Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Juliana da Silva Cardoso, Cláudia Correia, Rita Gomes, Carolina Fraga, Inês Cascais, Sara Monteiro, Beatriz Teixeira, Sandra Ribeiro, Carolina Andrade, Cláudia Oliveira, Diana Gonzaga, Catarina Prior, Inês Vaz Matos

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The average daily screen time (ST) has been increasing in children, even at young ages. This seems to be associated with a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental disorders, and as the time of exposure increases, the greater is the functional impact. This study aims to compare the daily ST of toddlers and preschoolers previously and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A questionnaire was applied by telephone to parents/caregivers of children between 1 and 5 years old, followed up at 4 primary care units belonging to the Group of Primary Health Care Centers of Western Porto, Portugal. 520 children were included: 52.9% male, mean age 39.4 ± 13.9 months. The mean age of first exposure to screens was 13.9 ± 8.0 months, and most of the children were exposed to more than one screen daily. Considering the WHO recommendations, before the COVID-19 pandemic, 385 (74.0%) and 408 (78.5%) children had excessive ST during the week and the weekend, respectively; during the lockdown, these values increased to 495 (95.2%) and 482 (92.7%). Maternal education and both the child's median age and the median age of first exposure to screens had a statistically significant association with excessive ST, with OR 0.2 (p = 0.03, CI 95% 0.07-0.86), OR 1.1 (p = 0.01, 95% CI 1.05-1.14) and OR 0.9 (p = 0.05, 95% CI 0. 87-0.98), respectively. Most children in this sample had a higher than recommended ST, which increased with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. These results are worrisome and point to the need for urgent intervention.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, preschoolers, screen time, toddlers

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Authors: Jawdhari Abdulhusein, Dan Mihăilescu, Cristian-Emilian Pop, Nicolai Crăciun

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Cyprinus Carpio adult specimens were captured from a single spot location from the Danube River and transported to the Laboratory of Faculty of Biology, University of Bucharest. The specimens were measured, weighed and randomly divided in five groups for later Copper Sulphate (CuSO4) exposure, as well as one control group. From the control group, 3 specimens were immediately sacrificed and microscopically inspected for parasite’s presence in the gills. During the histological inspection of the control group specimens, Ichthyophthiriusmultifiliis, Gyrodactylu ssp., MyxobolusOviforis, and Trichodinacottidarumwere abundantly identified in the gills. The exposure to a single dose of CuSO4 per group took place for 7 days under controlled conditions: water alkalinity ≈ 100 mg/L, temperature 23–24 °C, oxygenation 7.40–7.80 mg/L, and pH 6.10–6.40, the parameters were monitored on an hourly basis and adjusted when needed. After the exposure, all specimens were sacrificed, and the gill tissues were inspected. It was found that concentrations of 0.10, 0.25 and 0.30 ppm of CuSO4 did not affect the presence of parasites, as for 0.40 ppm of CuSO4 it significantly affected onlyIchthyophthiriusmultifiliisandMyxobolusOviforis, while concentration 0.50 ppm of CuSO4 (≈0.20 ppm of Cu2+) eliminated all 4 parasites species previously present in the fish gills, also, there were some histopathological changes to the gills tissue. These findings suggest that low concentrations of CuSO4 treatment for fish parasites are a safe and economical option if used correctly for a brief length of time.

Keywords: copper sulphate, cyprinus carpio, parasites, danube river

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Satoko Yamasaki, Hiromi Kawasaki, Kotomi Yamashita, Susumu Fukita, Kei Sounai

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People are susceptible to rumors when the cause of their health problems is unknown or invisible. In order for individuals to be unaffected by rumors, they need basic knowledge and correct information. Community health nursing classes use cases where basic knowledge of radiation can be utilized on a regular basis, thereby teaching that basic knowledge is important in preventing anxiety caused by rumors. Nursing students need to learn that preventive activities are essential for public health nursing care. This is the same methodology used to reduce COVID-19 anxiety among individuals. This study verifies the learning effect concerning the basic knowledge of radiation necessary for case consultation by emergency distance learning. Sixty third-year nursing college students agreed to participate in this research. The knowledge tests conducted before and after classes were compared, with the chi-square test used for testing. There were five knowledge questions regarding distance lessons. This was considered to be 5% significant. The students’ reports which describe the results of responding to health consultations, were analyzed qualitatively and descriptively. In this case study, a person living in an area not affected by radiation was anxious about drinking water and, thus, consulted with a student. The contents of the lecture were selected the minimum amount of knowledge used for the answers of the consultant; specifically hot spots, internal exposure risk, food safety, characteristics of cesium-137, and precautions for counselors. Before taking the class, the most correctly answered question by students concerned daily behavior at risk of internal exposure (52.2%). The question with the fewest correct answers was the selection of places that are likely to be hot spots (3.4%). All responses increased significantly after taking the class (p < 0.001). The answers to the counselors, as written by the students, were 'Cesium is strongly bound to the soil, so it is difficult to transfer to water' and 'Water quality test results of tap water are posted on the city's website.' These were concrete answers obtained by using specialized knowledge. Even in emergency distance learning, the students gained basic knowledge regarding radiation and created a document to utilize said knowledge while assuming the situation concretely. It was thought that the flipped classroom method, even if conducted remotely, could maintain students' learning. It was thought that setting specific knowledge and scenes to be used would enhance the learning effect. By changing the case to concern that of the anxiety caused by infectious diseases, students may be able to effectively gain the basic knowledge to decrease the anxiety of residents due to infectious diseases.

Keywords: effect of class, emergency distance learning, nursing student, radiation

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Authors: David Ahiamadia, Ramilan Thiagarajah, Peter Tozer

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In Sub Saharan Africa, farm typologies have been used as a practical way to address heterogeneity among farming systems which is mostly done by grouping farms into subsets with similar characteristics. Due to the complexity in farming systems among farm households, it is not possible to formulate policy recommendations for individual farmers. As a result, this study employs a multivariate statistical approach using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis to reduce heterogeneity in a 615-household data set from the Africa Rising Baseline Evaluation Survey for 25 farming communities in Northern Ghana. Variables selected for the study were mostly socio-economic, production potential, production intensity, production orientation, crop diversity, food security, resource endowments, and climate risk variables. To avoid making some individuals in the subpopulation worse off when aclimate risk intervention is broadly implemented, the findings of the study also account for diversity in climate risk perception among the different farm types identified and their response strategies towards climate risk. The climate risk variables used in this study involve the most severeclimate shock types perceived by the household, household response to climate shock type, and reason for crop failure (i.e., maize, rice, and groundnut). Eventually, four farm types, each with an adequate level of homogeneity in climate risk perception and response strategies, were identified. Farm type 1 and 3 were wealthy with a lower degree of climate risk perception compared to farm type 2 and 4. Also, relatively wealthy farmers used asset liquidation as a climate risk management strategy, whereas poor farmers resorted to engaging in spiritual activities such as prayers, sacrifices, and divine consultations.

Keywords: smallholder, households, climate risk, variables, typologies

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: E. Von Cheong, Carol Sinnott, Darren Dahly, Patricia M. Kearney

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Introduction and Aim: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are all too common and have been linked to poorer health and wellbeing across the life course. While the prevention of ACEs is a worthy goal, it is important that we also try to lessen the impact of ACEs for those who do experience them. This study aims to investigate associations between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and later-life depressive symptoms; and to explore whether perceived social support (PSS) moderates these. Method: We analysed baseline data from the Mitchelstown (Ireland) 2010-11 cohort involving 2047 men and women aged 50–69 years. Self-reported assessments included ACEs (Centre for Disease Control ACE questionnaire), PSS (Oslo Social Support Scale), and depressive symptoms (CES-D). The primary exposure was self-report of at least one ACE. We also investigated the effects of ACE exposure by the subtypes abuse, neglect, and household dysfunction. Associations between each of these exposures and depressive symptoms were estimated using logistic regression, adjusted for socio-demographic factors that were selected using the Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) approach. We also tested whether the estimated associations varied across levels of PSS (poor, moderate, and good). Results: 23.7% of participants reported at least one ACE (95% CI: 21.9% to 25.6%). ACE exposures (overall or subtype) were associated with a higher odds of depressive symptoms, but only among individuals with poor PSS. For example, exposure to any ACE (vs. none) was associated with 3 times the odds of depressive symptoms (Adjusted OR 2.97; 95% CI 1.63 to 5.40) among individuals reporting poor PSS, while among those reporting moderate PSS, the adjusted OR was 1.18 (95% CI 0.72 to 1.94). Discussion: ACEs are common among older adults in Ireland and are associated with higher odds of later-life depressive symptoms among those also reporting poor PSS. Interventions that enhance perception of social support following ACE exposure may help reduce the burden of depression in older populations.

Keywords: adverse childhood experiences, depression, later-life, perceived social support

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Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

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The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

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Authors: Chaoge Wang, Xiquan Weng, Yan Meng, Wentao Lin

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Objective: Cold exposure and exercise serve as two physiological stimuli to glycolipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. So far, it remains to be elucidated whether exercise plus cold exposure can produce an addictive effect on promoting glycolipid metabolism and insulin sensitivity. Methods: 64 SD rats were subjected to high-fat and high-sugar diets for 9-week and sucessfully to establish an obesity model. They were randomly divided into 8 groups: normal control group (NC), normal exercise group (NE), continuous cold control group (CC), continuous cold exercise group (CE), acute clod control group (AC), acute cold exercise group (AE), intermittent cold control group (IC) and intermittent cold exercise group (IE). For continuous cold exposure, the rats stayed in a cold environment all day; for acute cold exposure, the rats were exposed to cold for only 4h before the end of the experiment; for intermittent cold exposure, the rats were exposed to cold for 4h per day. The protocol for treadmill runnings were as follows: 25m/min (speed), 0°C (slope), 30 mins each time, an interval for 10 mins between two runnings, twice/two days, lasting for 5 weeks. Sampling were conducted on the 5th weekend. Blood lipids, free fatty acids, blood glucose (FBG), and serum insulin (FINS) were examined, and the insulin resistance index (HOMA-IR = FBG (mmol/L)×FINS(mIU/L)/22.5) was calculated. SPSS 22.0 was used for statistical analysis of the experimental results, and the ANOVA analysis was performed between groups (p < 0.05 was significant). Results: (1) Compared with the NC group, the FBG of the rats was significantly declined in the NE, CE, AC, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05), the FINS of the rats was significantly declined in the AE group (p < 0.05), the HOMA-IR of the rats was significantly declined in the NE, CE, AC, AE and IE groups (p < 0.05). Compared with the NE group, the FBG of the rats was significantly declined in the CE, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05), the FINS and HOMA-IR of the rats were significantly declined in the AE group (p < 0.05). (2) Compared with the NC group, the CHO, TG, LDL-C, and FFA of the rats were significantly declined in CE and IE groups (p < 0.05), the HDL-C of the rats was significantly higher in NE, CC, CE, AE, and IE groups (p < 0.05). Compared with the NE group, the HDL-C of the rats was significantly higher in the CE and IE groups (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Sedentariness or exercise in the acute cold doesn't make sense in the treatment of type 2 diabetes, which led to one-off increases of the body's insulin sensitivity. Exercise in the continuous and intermittent cold can effectively decline the FBG, TC, TG, LDL-C, and FFA levels and increase the HDL-C level and insulin sensitivity in obese rats. These results can impact the prevention and treatment of type 2 diabetes.

Keywords: cold, exercise, insulin sensitivity, obesity

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