Search results for: long term investment

Authors: Aleksandra Szunke

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Monetary policy is an important pillar of the economy, directly affecting on the condition of banking sector. Depending on the strategy may both support functioning of banking institutions, as well as limit their excessively risky activities. The literature studies indicate a large number of publications, which include characteristics of initiatives, implemented by central banks during the global financial crisis and the potential effects of the use of non-standard monetary policy instruments. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for the financial markets are still not final. Even before the escalation of instability, Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of various unconventional monetary tools in lowering long-term interest rates in the United States and Japan. The obtained results largely confirmed the effectiveness of the zero-interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing (QE) in achieving the goal of reducing long-term interest rates. Japan, considered as the precursor of QE policy, also conducted research about the consequences of non-standard instruments, implemented to restore financial stability of the country. Although the literature about the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan is extensive, it does not uniquely specify whether it brought permanent effects. The main aim of the study is to identify the implications of non-standard monetary policy, implemented by selected central banks (the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England and European Central Bank), paying particular attention to the consequences into three areas: the size of money supply, financial markets, and the real economy.

Keywords: consequences of modern monetary policy, quantitative easing policy, banking sector instability, global financial crisis

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Authors: Olayinka Ariba, Abe Oudshoorn, Steve Rolfe, Carrie Anne Marshall, Deanna Befus, Jason Gilliland, Miranda Crockett, Susana Caxaj, Sarah McLean, Amy Van Berkum, Natasha Thuemler

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Background: Secure housing is a platform for health and well-being. Those who struggle with housing stability have complex life and health histories and often require some support services such as the provision of permanent supportive housing. Poor access to supportive resources creates an exacerbation of chronic homelessness, particularly affecting individuals who need immediate access to mental health and addiction supports. This paper presents the first phase of a three-part study examining how on-site support impacts housing stability for recently-re-housed persons. Method: This study utilized a community-based participatory research methodology. Twenty in-depth interviews were conducted with permanent supportive housing residents from a single-site dwelling. Interpretative description analysis was used to draw common themes and understand the experiences and challenges of housing support. Results: Three interconnected themes were identified: 1) Available and timely supports; 2) Affordability; and 3) Community, but with independence as desired. These interconnected components are helping residents transition from homelessness or long-term mental health inpatient care to live in the community. Despite some participant concerns about resident conflicts, staff availability, and affordability, this has been a welcome and successful move for most. Conclusion: Supportive housing is essential for successful tenancies as a platform for health and well-being among Canada’s most vulnerable and, from the perspective of persons recently re-housed, permanent supportive housing is a worthwhile investment.

Keywords: homelessness, supportive housing, rehoused, housing stability

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Authors: Ayanda Ndokwana, Stanley Fore

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Industrial prosperity and rapid expansion of human population in South Africa over the past two decades, have increased the use of conventional fossil fuels such as crude oil, coal and natural gas to meet the country’s energy demands. However, the inevitable depletion of fossil fuel reserves, global volatile oil price and large carbon footprint are some of the crucial reasons the South African Government needs to make a considerable investment in the development of the biofuel industry. In South Africa, this industry is still at the introductory stage with no large scale manufacturing plant that has been commissioned yet. Bioethanol is a potential replacement of gasoline which is a fossil fuel that is used in motor vehicles. Using bioethanol for the transport sector as a source of fuel will help Government to save heavy foreign exchange incurred during importation of oil and create many job opportunities in rural farming. In 2007, the South African Government developed the National Biofuels Industrial Strategy in an effort to make provision for support and attract investment in bioethanol production. However, capital investment in the production of bioethanol on a large scale, depends on the sound economic assessment of the available manufacturing technologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the profitability of an advanced bioethanol manufacturing technology which uses maize as a feedstock in South Africa. The impact of fiber or bran fractionation in this technology causes it to possess a number of merits such as energy efficiency, low capital expenditure, and profitability compared to a conventional dry-mill bioethanol technology. Quantitative techniques will be used to collect and analyze numerical data from suitable organisations in South Africa. The dependence of three profitability indicators such as the Discounted Payback Period (DPP), Net Present Value (NPV) and Return On Investment (ROI) on plant capacity will be evaluated. Profitability analysis will be done on the following plant capacities: 100 000 ton/year, 150 000 ton/year and 200 000 ton/year. The plant capacity with the shortest Discounted Payback Period, positive Net Present Value and highest Return On Investment implies that a further consideration in terms of capital investment is warranted.

Keywords: bioethanol, economic evaluation, maize, profitability indicators

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Authors: Paromik Bhattacharyya, Vijay Kumar, Johannes Van Staden

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Micropropagation is an important tool for the conservation of threatened and commercially important plant species of which orchids deserve special attention. Ansellia africana is one such medicinally important orchid species having much commercial significance. Thus, development of regeneration protocols for producing clonally stable regenerates using axillary buds is of much importance. However, for large-scale micropropagation to become not only successful but also acceptable by end-users, somaclonal variations occurring in the plantlets need to be eliminated. In the light of the various factors (genotype, ploidy level, in vitro culture age, explant and culture type, etc.) that may account for the somaclonal variations of divergent genetic changes at the cellular and molecular levels, genetic analysis of micropropagated plants using a multidisciplinary approach is of utmost importance. In the present study, the clonal integrity of the long term micropropagated A. africana plants were assessed using advanced molecular marker system i.e. Start Codon Targeted Polymorphism (SCoT). Our studies recorded a clonally stable regeneration protocol for A. africana with a very high degree of clonal fidelity amongst the regenerates. The results obtained from these molecular analyses could help in modifying the regeneration protocols for obtaining clonally stable true to type plantlets for sustainable commercial use.

Keywords: medicinal orchid micropropagation, start codon targeted polymorphism (SCoT), RAP), traditional African pharmacopoeia, genetic fidelity

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Authors: Yooncheol Lee, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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This paper deals with the establishment of a short-term operational plan for an air conditioner for efficient energy management of exhibition hall. The short-term operational plan is composed of a time series of operational schedules, which we have searched using genetic algorithms. Establishing operational schedule should be considered the future trends of the variables affecting the exhibition hall environment. To reflect continuously changing factors such as external temperature and occupant, short-term operational plans should be updated in real time. But it takes too much time to evaluate a short-term operational plan using EnergyPlus, a building emulation tool. For that reason, it is difficult to update the operational plan in real time. To evaluate the short-term operational plan, we designed prediction models based on machine learning with fast evaluation speed. This model, which was created by learning the past operational data, is accurate and fast. The collection of operational data and the verification of operational plans were made using EnergyPlus. Experimental results show that the proposed method can save energy compared to the reactive control method.

Keywords: exhibition hall, energy management, predictive model, simulation-based optimization

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Authors: Philasande Runeli, Lynn Jonas

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Empowerment suggests participation is working collaboratively towards shared objectives, obtaining resources and critically analysing one’s social and political differences are all necessary steps in the empowering process. The aim of leadership empowerment is to give a team the resources and encouragement they need to work more productively together. This study explores potential ways to increase local empowerment and participation in blue tourism activities in an urban coastal context in South Africa. Blue tourism, which refers to the application of sustainability practices to tourism activities in coastal and marine settings, has the potential to significantly improve socioeconomic conditions in coastal communities. However, people's engagement in these activities remain restricted. The study uses a constructivist research paradigm and employs a qualitative method, conducting semi-structured interviews with community members from three different communities gaining in-depth perspectives from them. The study's goal is to identify impediments and potential for community participation in blue tourism, as well as offering practical solutions for promoting long-term and inclusive participation. Initial key findings highlight critical barriers to participation, emphasising the importance of skills development, policy alignment with local needs, and public-private partnerships as key components of community empowerment. This study offers policymakers and stakeholders recommendations for promoting inclusive blue tourism initiatives. The recommended initiatives emphasise the significance of skills development, infrastructure investment, and sustainable tourism models in ensuring economic empowerment and environmental conservation in urban coastal communities in developing states.

Keywords: blue tourism, community empowerment and participation, sustainable tourism models, inclusive participation

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Authors: Lucian J. Pitt

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The primary purpose of this study is to understand the differences in the relationship between working capital management efficiency, working capital investment decisions and working capital finance decisions and the profitability of firms within the context of two African developing economies, Kenya and Nigeria. The study finds that there is a significant difference in the relationship between the firm’s profitability and the working capital variables which suggests different challenges for working capital management in each of these countries.

Keywords: working capital management, working capital investment, working capital finance, profitability, cash conversion cycle

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Authors: Dante J. Dorantes-González, Aldrin Balsa-Yepes

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Existing learning techniques such as problem-based learning, project-based learning, or case study learning are learning techniques that focus mainly on technical details, but give no specific guidelines on learner’s experience and emotional learning aspects such as arousal salience and valence, being emotional states important factors affecting engagement and retention. Some approaches involving emotion in educational settings, such as social and emotional learning, lack neuroscientific rigorousness and use of specific neurobiological mechanisms. On the other hand, neurobiology approaches lack educational applicability. And educational approaches mainly focus on cognitive aspects and disregard conditioning learning. First, authors start explaining the reasons why it is hard to learn thoughtfully, then they use the method of neurobiological mapping to track the main limbic system functions, such as the reward circuit, and its relations with perception, memories, motivations, sympathetic and parasympathetic reactions, and sensations, as well as the brain cortex. The authors conclude explaining the major finding: The mechanisms of nonconscious learning and the triggers that guarantee long-term memory potentiation. Afterward, the educational framework for practical application and the instructors’ guidelines are established. An implementation example in engineering education is given, namely, the study of tuned-mass dampers for earthquake oscillations attenuation in skyscrapers. This work represents an original learning technique based on nonconscious learning mechanisms to enhance long-term memories that complement existing cognitive learning methods.

Keywords: emotion, emotion-enhanced memory, learning technique, STEM

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Authors: Syed Ali Shahbaz Shah

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In the last few years, Bituminous Asphaltic roads are becoming popular day by day in the world. Plenty of research has been carried out to identify many advantages like safety, environmental effects, and comfort. Some other benefits are minimal noise and skid resistance enhancement. Besides the benefits of asphaltic roads, the permeable structure of the road also causes some distress, and raveling is one of the crucial defects. The main reason behind this distress is the failure of adhesion between bitumen mortar, specifically due to excessive load from heavy traffic. The main focus of this study is to identify the root cause and propose both the long-term and the short-term solutions of raveling on a specific road section depicting the overall road situation from the bridge of Kahuta road towards the intersection of the Islamabad express highway. The methodology adopted for this purpose is visual inspections in-situ. It was noted that there were chunks of debris on the road surface, which indicates that the asphalt binder is aged the most probably. Further laboratory testing would confirm that either asphalt binder is aged or inadequate compaction was adept during cold weather paving.

Keywords: asphaltic roads, asphalt binder, distress, raveling

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Authors: Cansu Gülser, Tuğce Ercan

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The construction sector is a key driver of the global economy, contributing significantly to growth and employment through a diverse array of sub-sectors. However, it faces challenges due to its project-based nature, which often hampers long-term collaboration and broader incentives beyond individual projects. These limitations are frequently discussed in scientific literature as obstacles to innovation and industry-wide change. Traditional practices and unwritten rules further hinder the adoption of new processes within the construction industry. The disadvantages of the construction industry’s project-based structure in fostering innovation and long-term relationships include limited continuity, fragmented collaborations, and a focus on short-term goals, which collectively hinder the development of sustained partnerships, inhibit the sharing of knowledge and best practices, and reduce incentives for investing in innovative processes and technologies. This structure typically emphasizes specific projects, which restricts broader collaborations and incentives that extend beyond individual projects, thus impeding innovation and change. The temporal complexities inherent in project-based sectors like construction make it difficult to address societal challenges through collaborative efforts. Traditional management approaches are inadequate for scaling up innovations and adapting to significant changes. For systemic transformation in the construction sector, there is a need for more collaborative relationships and activities beyond traditional supply chains. This study delves into the concept of an innovation ecosystem within the construction sector, highlighting various research findings. It aims to explore key questions about the components that enhance innovation capacity, the relationship between a robust innovation ecosystem and this capacity, and the reasons why innovation is less prevalent and implemented in this sector compared to others. Additionally, it examines the main factors hindering innovation within companies and identifies strategies to improve these efforts, particularly in developing countries. The innovation ecosystem in the construction sector generates various outputs through interactions between business resources and external components. These outputs include innovative value creation, sustainable practices, robust collaborations, knowledge sharing, competitiveness, and advanced project management, all of which contribute significantly to company market performance and competitive advantage. This article offers insights and strategic recommendations for industry professionals, policymakers, and researchers interested in developing and sustaining innovation ecosystems in the construction sector. Future research should focus on broader samples for generalization, comparative sector analysis, and application-focused studies addressing real industry challenges. Additionally, studying the long-term impacts of innovation ecosystems, integrating advanced technologies like AI and machine learning into project management, and developing future application strategies and policies are also important.

Keywords: construction industry, innovation ecosystem, innovation ecosystem components, project management

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Authors: L. I. Shanshan

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Beginning with the debate of concept, this essay explains the historical source and development of flexible housing in China. In the former part, the flexibility contained in traditional house is explored. While in the latter, the relevant practices in modern times are systematically analyzed as three phases–the Embryonic Period (1949 - 1980), the Systematic Practice (1981 - 2000), as well as the Integrated Trend and Prosperity (2001 - present). As a conclusion, the generalized flexibility is tentatively discussed.

Keywords: flexibility, long-term effectiveness, variety, social background

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Authors: Abdulkarim Yusuf

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Motivation: A crucial but difficult goal for governments and policymakers in Nigeria in recent years has been the sustainability of economic growth. This goal must be accomplished by regulating or lowering greenhouse gas emissions, which calls for switching to a low- or zero-carbon production system. The lack of in-depth empirical studies on the environmental impact of socioeconomic variables on Nigeria and a number of unresolved issues from earlier research is what led to the current study. Objective: This study fills an important empirical gap by investigating the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis and the long and short-run dynamic impact of socioeconomic variables on ecological sustainability in Nigeria. Data and method: Annual time series data covering the period 1980 to 2020 and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique in the presence of structural breaks were adopted for this study. Results: The empirical findings support the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Nigeria in the long and short run. Energy consumption and total import exacerbate environmental deterioration in the long and short run, whereas total export improves environmental quality in the long and short run. Financial development, which contributed to a conspicuous decrease in the level of environmental destruction in the long run, escalated it in the short run. In contrast, urbanization caused a significant increase in environmental damage in the long run but motivated a decrease in biodiversity loss in the short run. Implications: The government, policymakers, and all energy stakeholders should take additional measures to ensure the implementation and diversification of energy sources to accommodate more renewable energy sources that emit less carbon in order to promote efficiency in Nigeria's production processes and lower carbon emissions. In order to promote the production and trade of environmentally friendly goods, they should also revise and strengthen environmental policies. With affordable, dependable, and sustainable energy use for higher productivity and inclusive growth, Nigeria will be able to achieve its long-term development goals of good health and wellbeing.

Keywords: economic growth, energy consumption, environmental degradation, environmental Kuznets curve, urbanization, Nigeria

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Authors: Jackson Niyongabo

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This study addresses a notable gap in the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions, particularly within the African context. While numerous studies have explored these dynamics globally and regionally across various development levels, few have delved into the nuances of regions and income levels specific to African countries. Furthermore, the evaluation of the interplay between green growth policies, green energy technologies, and their impact on environmental quality has been underexplored. This research aims to fill these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the transition from conventional economic growth and energy consumption to a paradigm of green growth coupled with green energy utilization across the African continent from 1980 to 2018. The study is structured into three main parts: an empirical examination of the long-term effects of energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions across diverse African regions and income levels; an estimation of the long-term impact of green growth and green energy use on CO₂ emissions for countries implementing green policies within Africa, as well as at regional and global levels; and a comparative analysis of the impact of green growth policies on environmental degradation before and after implementation. Employing advanced econometric methods and panel estimators, the study utilizes a testing framework, panel unit tests, and various estimators to derive meaningful insights. The anticipated results and conclusions will be elucidated through causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyses, contributing valuable knowledge to the discourse on sustainable development in the African context.

Keywords: economic growth, green growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, econometric models, green energy

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Authors: Bahareh Golchin, Nooshin Riahi

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One of the most significant issues as attended a lot in recent years is that of recognizing the sentiments and emotions in social media texts. The analysis of sentiments and emotions is intended to recognize the conceptual information such as the opinions, feelings, attitudes and emotions of people towards the products, services, organizations, people, topics, events and features in the written text. These indicate the greatness of the problem space. In the real world, businesses and organizations are always looking for tools to gather ideas, emotions, and directions of people about their products, services, or events related to their own. This article uses the Twitter social network, one of the most popular social networks with about 420 million active users, to extract data. Using this social network, users can share their information and opinions about personal issues, policies, products, events, etc. It can be used with appropriate classification of emotional states due to the availability of its data. In this study, supervised learning and deep neural network algorithms are used to classify the emotional states of Twitter users. The use of deep learning methods to increase the learning capacity of the model is an advantage due to the large amount of available data. Tweets collected on various topics are classified into four classes using a combination of two Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory network and a Convolutional network. The results obtained from this study with an average accuracy of 93%, show good results extracted from the proposed framework and improved accuracy compared to previous work.

Keywords: emotion classification, sentiment analysis, social networks, deep neural networks

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Authors: D. De Matías Batalla

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This paper develops and extended eclectic paradigm to fit the firm internationalization process with the real international business world. The approach is based on Dunning´s, introducing new concepts like mode of entry, international joint venture o international mergers and acquisitions. At the same time is presented a model to describe the Spanish international mergers and acquisitions in order to determinate the most important factor that influence in this type of foreign direct investment.

Keywords: dunning, eclectic paradigm, foreign direct investment, IJV, international business, international management, multinational firms, firm internationalization process, M&A

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Authors: Nihal Kartaltepe Behram, Göksel Ataman, Dila Okçu

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With the development of foreign direct investments, the social, cultural, political and economic interactions between countries and institutions have become visible and they have become determining factors for the strategic structuring and market goals. In this context the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of cultural distance and institutions on foreign direct investment choices in terms of location and investment model. For international establishments, the concept of culture, as well as the concept of cultural distance, is taken specifically into consideration, especially in the selection of methods for entering the market. In the researches and empirical studies conducted, a direct relationship between cultural distance and foreign direct investments is set and institutions and effective variable factors are examined at the level of defining the investment types. When the detailed calculation strategies and empirical researches and studies are taken into consideration, the most common methods for determining the direct investment model, considering the cultural distances, are full-ownership enterprises and joint ventures. Also, when all of the factors affecting the investments are taken into consideration, it was seen that the effect of institutions such as Government Intervention, Intellectual Property Rights, Corruption and Contract Enforcements is very important. Furthermore agglomeration is more intense and effective on the investment, compared to other factors. China has been selected as the target country, due to its effectiveness in world economy and its contributions to developing countries, which has commercial relationships with. Qualitative research methods are used for this study conducted, to measure the effects of determinative variable factors in the hypotheses of study, on the direct foreign investors and to evaluate the findings. In this study in-depth interview is used as a data collection method and the data analysis is made through descriptive analysis. Foreign Direct Investments are so reactive to institutions and cultural distance is identified by all interviews and analysis. On the other hand, agglomeration is the most strong determiner factor on foreign direct investors in Chinese Market. The reason of this factors, which comprise the sectorial aggregate, are not the strongest factors as agglomeration that the most important finding. We expect that this study became a beneficial guideline for developed and developing countries and local and national institutions’ strategic plans.

Keywords: China, cultural distance, Foreign Direct Investments, institutions

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Authors: Sarah Crawford, Gerry Lesley

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This research is a pre-clinical assessment of anti-cancer effects of novel non-steroidal diethyl stilbestrol-like estrogen analogs in estrogen-receptor positive/ progesterone-receptor positive human breast cancer microtumors of MCF 7 cell line. Tamoxifen analog formulation (Tam A1) was used as a single agent or in combination with therapeutic concentrations of 4-hydroxytamoxifen, currently used as a long-term treatment for the prevention of breast cancer recurrence in women with estrogen receptor positive/ progesterone receptor positive malignancies. At concentrations ranging from 30-50 microM, Tam A1 induced microtumor disaggregation and cell death. Incremental cytotoxic effects correlated with increasing concentrations of Tam A1. Live tumor microscopy showed that microtumos displayed diffuse borders and substrate-attached cells were rounded-up and poorly adherent. A complete cytotoxic effect was observed using 40-50 microM Tam A1 with time course kinetics similar to 4-hydroxytamoxifen. Combined treatment with TamA1 (30-50 microM) and 4-hydroxytamoxifen (10-15 microM) induced a highly cytotoxic, synergistic combined treatment response that was more rapid and complete than using 4-hydroxytamoxifen as a single agent therapeutic. Microtumors completely dispersed or formed necrotic foci indicating a highly cytotoxic combined treatment response. Moreover, breast cancer microtumors treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed lower levels of long-term post-treatment regrowth, a critical parameter of primary drug resistance, than observed for 4-hydroxytamoxifen when used as a single agent therapeutic. Tumor regrowth at 6 weeks post-treatment with either single agent 4-hydroxy tamoxifen, Tam A1 or a combined treatment was assessed for the development of drug resistance. Breast cancer cells treated with both 4-hydroxytamoxifen and Tam A1 displayed significantly lower levels of post-treatment regrowth, indicative of decreased drug resistance, than observed for either single treatment modality. The preclinical data suggest that combined treatment involving the use of tamoxifen analogs may be a novel clinical approach for long-term maintenance therapy in patients with estrogen-receptor positive/progesterone-receptor positive breast cancer receiving hormonal therapy to prevent disease recurrence. Detailed data on time-course, IC50 and tumor regrowth assays post- treatment as well as a proposed mechanism of action to account for observed synergistic drug effects will be presented.

Keywords: 4-hydroxytamoxifen, tamoxifen analog, drug-resistance, microtumors

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Authors: Ephraim Ugwu, Christopher Ehinomen

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Despite efforts by the Nigerian government to harmonize the macroeconomic policy implementations by establishing various committees to resolve disputes between the fiscal and monetary authorities, it is still evident that the federal government had continued its expansionary policy by increasing spending, thus creating huge budget deficit. This study evaluates the effect of macroeconomic policy coordination on economic growth uncertainty in Nigeria from 1980 to 2020. Employing the Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing procedures, the empirical results shows that the error correction term, ECM(-1), indicates a negative sign and is significant statistically with the t-statistic value of (-5.612882 ). Therefore, the gap between long run equilibrium value and the actual value of the dependent variable is corrected with speed of adjustment equal to 77% yearly. The long run coefficient results showed that the estimated coefficients of the intercept term indicates that other things remains the same (ceteris paribus), the economics growth uncertainty will continue reduce by 7.32%. The coefficient of the fiscal policy variable, PUBEXP, indicates a positive sign and significant statistically. This implies that as the government expenditure increases by 1%, economic growth uncertainty will increase by 1.67%. The coefficient of monetary policy variable MS also indicates a positive sign and insignificant statistically. The coefficients of merchandise trade variable, TRADE and exchange rate EXR show negative signs and significant statistically. This indicate that as the country’s merchandise trade and the rate of exchange increases by 1%, the economic growth uncertainty reduces by 0.38% and 0.06%, respectively. This study, therefore, advocate for proper coordination of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies in order to actualize the goal of achieving a stable economic growth.

Keywords: macroeconomic, policy coordination, growth uncertainty, ARDL, Nigeria

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Authors: Kimberly Tasha Jiayi Tang, Changqing Lin, Zhe Wang, Tze-Wai Wong, Md. Shakhaoat Hossain, Jian Yu, Alexis Lau

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Hong Kong has practiced a risk-based Air Quality Health Index (AQHI) system that sums hospitalization risks associated with short-term exposure to air pollu-tants. As an air pollution risk communication tool, it informs the public about the current air quality, anchoring around the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2005 Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs). Given the WHO's recent update in 2021, assessing how Hong Kong’s air quality risk communication can be en-hanced using these updated guidelines is essential. Hong Kong’s AQHI is lim-ited by solely focusing on short-term health risks, which could lead the public to underestimate cumulative health impacts. Therefore, we propose the intro-duction of a composite AQHI that reports both long-term and short-term health risks. Additionally, the WHO interim targets will be considered as anchor points for various health risk categories. Furthermore, with the increasing ozone levels in Hong Kong and Southern China due to improved NOx mitigation measures, it has been a challenging task in balancing health protection against climate mitigation. However, our findings present a promising outlook. Despite the rise in ozone levels, the combined health risks in Hong Kong and Guang-dong have seen a decline, largely due to reductions in NO2 and PM concentra-tions, both having significant health implications. By shifting from a concentra-tion-based approach to a health risk-based system like the AQHI, our study highlights the prospective of harmonizing health protection and climate mitiga-tion goals. This health-focused framework suggests that rigorous NOx controls can effective-ly serve both objectives in parallel.

Keywords: air quality management, air quality health index, health risk management, air pollution

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Authors: Fazıl Gökgöz, Fahrettin Filiz

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Load forecasting has become crucial in recent years and become popular in forecasting area. Many different power forecasting models have been tried out for this purpose. Electricity load forecasting is necessary for energy policies, healthy and reliable grid systems. Effective power forecasting of renewable energy load leads the decision makers to minimize the costs of electric utilities and power plants. Forecasting tools are required that can be used to predict how much renewable energy can be utilized. The purpose of this study is to explore the effectiveness of LSTM-based neural networks for estimating renewable energy loads. In this study, we present models for predicting renewable energy loads based on deep neural networks, especially the Long Term Memory (LSTM) algorithms. Deep learning allows multiple layers of models to learn representation of data. LSTM algorithms are able to store information for long periods of time. Deep learning models have recently been used to forecast the renewable energy sources such as predicting wind and solar energy power. Historical load and weather information represent the most important variables for the inputs within the power forecasting models. The dataset contained power consumption measurements are gathered between January 2016 and December 2017 with one-hour resolution. Models use publicly available data from the Turkish Renewable Energy Resources Support Mechanism. Forecasting studies have been carried out with these data via deep neural networks approach including LSTM technique for Turkish electricity markets. 432 different models are created by changing layers cell count and dropout. The adaptive moment estimation (ADAM) algorithm is used for training as a gradient-based optimizer instead of SGD (stochastic gradient). ADAM performed better than SGD in terms of faster convergence and lower error rates. Models performance is compared according to MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error). Best five MAE results out of 432 tested models are 0.66, 0.74, 0.85 and 1.09. The forecasting performance of the proposed LSTM models gives successful results compared to literature searches.

Keywords: deep learning, long short term memory, energy, renewable energy load forecasting

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Authors: Khadija Kraiem, Salma Bessadok, Dorra Tabassi, Atef Jaouani

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This study investigated the long-term impact of incorporating biowaste (i.e., cork and date stones) as a natural and cost-effective alternative to traditional substrates (e.g., gravel) in constructed wetlands (CWs). Results showed that pollutant removal efficiency was significantly improved after the addition of biowaste under different hydraulic retention time (HRT) conditions. The addition of cork in vertical flow constructed wetlands (VFCWs) improved chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal from 64% to 86%. Similarly, in horizontal flow constructed wetlands (HFCWs), COD removal increased from 67% to 81% with cork and 85% with date seeds. In terms of ammonium removal, cork in VFCWs increased efficiency from 34% to 56%, while in HFCWs, it improved from 24% to 47% with cork and reached 44% with date stones. Furthermore, our data showed that the addition of biowastes improved the removal of micropollutants, such as bisphenol A (BPA) and diclofenac (DFC), with the highest removal of BPA of 86% and DFC of 89% observed in the date seeds wetland. However, no significant changes were observed in pathogens removal. The evaluation of the impact of biowaste addition on the contribution of plant species and its interaction with hydraulic retention time (HRT) was also conducted for pollutant removal. The addition of biowaste resulted in a decrease in the required HRT for effective contaminant elimination, but it had no notable impact on the contribution of plant species. To summarize, our findings indicate that utilizing biowastes in artificial wetlands for the treatment of wastewater with various pollutants can result in synergistic effects, presenting potential benefits in terms of both efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: constructed wetlands, cork, date stones, pollutant removal, wastewater

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Authors: Caio E. G. Reis, Sara Wassell, Adriana L. Porto, Angélica A. Amato, Leslie J. C. Bluck, Teresa H. M. da Costa

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Background: Multiple epidemiologic studies have consistently reported association between increased coffee consumption and a lowered risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. However, the mechanisms behind this finding have not been fully elucidated. Objective: We investigate the effect of coffee (caffeinated and decaffeinated) on glucose effectiveness and insulin sensitivity using the stable isotope minimal model protocol with oral glucose administration in healthy men. Design: Fifteen healthy men underwent 5 arms randomized crossover single-blinding (researchers) clinical trial. They consumed decaffeinated coffee, caffeinated coffee (with and without sugar), and controls – water (with and without sugar) followed 1 hour by an oral glucose tolerance test (75 g of available carbohydrate) with intravenous labeled dosing interpreted by the two compartment minimal model (225 minutes). One-way ANOVA with Bonferroni adjustment were used to compare the effects of the tested beverages on glucose metabolism parameters. Results: Decaffeinated coffee resulted in 29% and 85% higher insulin sensitivity compared with caffeinated coffee and water, respectively, and the caffeinated coffee showed 15% and 60% higher glucose effectiveness compared with decaffeinated coffee and water, respectively. However, these differences were not significant (p > 0.10). In overall analyze (0 – 225 min) there were no significant differences on glucose effectiveness, insulin sensitivity, and glucose and insulin area under the curve between the groups. The beneficial effects of coffee did not seem to act in the short-term (hours) on glucose metabolism parameters mainly on insulin sensitivity indices. The benefits of coffee consumption occur in the long-term (years) as has been shown in the reduction of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus risk in epidemiological studies. The clinical relevance of the present findings is that there is no need to avoid coffee as the drink choice for healthy people. Conclusions: The findings of this study demonstrate that the consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee with or without sugar has no acute effects on glucose metabolism in healthy men. Further researches, including long-term interventional studies, are needed to fully elucidate the mechanisms behind the coffee effects on reduced risk for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

Keywords: coffee, diabetes mellitus type 2, glucose, insulin

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Authors: Lu Zhao, Nadir Farhi, Yeltsin Valero, Zoi Christoforou, Nadia Haddadou

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In this paper, a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model is proposed to replicate simultaneously car-following and lane-changing behaviors in road networks. By combining two kinds of LSTM layers and three input designs of the neural network, six variants of the LSTM model have been created. These models were trained and tested on the NGSIM 101 dataset, and the results were evaluated in terms of longitudinal speed and lateral position, respectively. Then, we compared the LSTM model with a classical car-following model (the intelligent driving model (IDM)) in the part of speed decision. In addition, the LSTM model is compared with a model using classical neural networks. After the comparison, the LSTM model demonstrates higher accuracy than the physical model IDM in terms of car-following behavior and displays better performance with regard to both car-following and lane-changing behavior compared to the classical neural network model.

Keywords: traffic modeling, neural networks, LSTM, car-following, lane-change

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Authors: Ese Urhie, Olabisi Popoola, Obindah Gershon

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Several policies and programs initiated to address the challenge of unemployment in Nigeria seem to be inadequate. The desired structural transformation which is expected to absorb the excess labour in the economy is yet to be achieved. The agricultural sector accounts for almost half of the labour force with very low productivity. This could partly explain why the much anticipated structural transformation has not been achieved. A major reason for the low productivity is the fact that the production process is predominantly based on the use of traditional tools. In view of the underdeveloped nature of the agricultural sector, Nigeria still has huge potentials for productivity enhancement through modern technology. Aside from productivity enhancement, modern agriculture also stimulates both backward and forward linkages that promote investment and thus generate employment. Contrary to the apprehension usually expressed by many stake-holders about the adoption of modern technology by labour-abundant less-developed countries, this study showed that though there will be job loss initially, the reverse will be the case in the long-run. The outcome of this study will enhance the understanding of all stakeholders in the sector and also encourage them to adopt modern techniques of farming. It will also aid policy formulation at both sectoral and national levels. The recursive model and analysis adopted in the study is useful because it exhibits a unilateral cause-and-effect relationship which most simultaneous equation models do not. It enables the structural equations to be ordered in such a way that the first equation includes only predetermined variables on the right-hand side, while the solution for the final endogenous variable is completely determined by all equations of the system. The study examines the transmission channels and effect of modern agriculture on agricultural productivity and employment growth in Nigeria, via its forward and backward linkages. Using time series data spanning 1980 to 2014, the result of the analyses shows that: (i) a significant and positive relationship between agricultural productivity growth and modern agriculture; (ii) a significant and negative relationship between export price index and agricultural productivity growth; (iii) a significant and positive relationship between export and investment; and (iv) a significant and positive relationship between investment and employment growth. The unbalanced growth theory will be a good strategy to adopt by developing countries such as Nigeria.

Keywords: employment, modern agriculture, productivity, recursive model

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Authors: Lim Poh Im

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This paper examines the current strategic and planning issues in the provision of affordable housing in urban centres in Malaysia from the perspective of sustainability. Sustainability here refers to social sustainability such as the need to address urban poverty and ensure better quality of life; economic sustainability in ensuring that the financial mechanisms are healthy and stable in the long-run, and to a lesser extent, environmental sustainability in reducing pollution related problems and building footprint. The Malaysian affordable housing sector has undergone tremendous transformations since the sixties, transcending from the earlier social housing catering to the poorer strata of the society, to the current state of housing woes plaguing the young urban middle class. The increase in urban land prices and construction costs, coupled with rampant property speculative and manipulative activities have resulted in situations of housing that are largely unaffordable even to the middle income sector of the urban populations. To overcome such scenario, the public as well as private sectors in the recent years, have came up with various intermediate, as well as medium-term policies aimed to curb the burning housing needs of the urban populations. Key strategies include financial intervention in regulating the interests rates, imposing property gain taxes; loosening the requirement for density and other planning requirements, faster approval of projects, compulsory contribution from developers, etc. Some of the policies are commendable, while others are ad-hoc by nature, and are not able to resolve the long-term socio-economic challenges. This paper discusses and examines the issues from the ‘sustainability’ perspective, focusing on key fiscal, land use and planning policies, as well as the more subtle (but important) political and institutional factors shaping the provision of mass housing for the urban populations in Malaysia.

Keywords: affordable housing, urban housing, sustainable housing, planning for urban housing

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Authors: Camille Alexis-Garsee, Nicola Payne

Abstract:

One consequence of the pandemic has been the debilitating health impact that some people experience over a longer period of time, known as long-COVID. This has been predominately researched in adults; however, there is emerging evidence on the effects of long-COVID in children. Research has indicated over half of children who contracted COVID-19 experienced persistent symptoms four months after a confirmed diagnosis. There is little research on the impact of this on children and their families. This study aimed to explore the experiences of children with long-COVID, to enable further understanding of the impacts and needs within this group. Semi-structured interviews, facilitated by children’s drawings, were conducted with 15 children (aged 9-16, 9 females). Inductive thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. The findings tell a story of loss, change and of resilience. Many children were unable to engage in normal daily activities and were unable to attend school, however, all employed self-management techniques to cope with symptoms and were positive for the future. Four main themes were identified: (1) Education challenges: although some schools tried to accommodate the child’s new limitations with provision of flexi-attendance, online classes and a reduced timetable, children struggled to keep up with their schoolwork and needed more support; (2) Disrupted relationships: children felt socially isolated; they were forced to give up co and extra-curricular activities, were no longer in contact with friendship groups and missed out on key experiences with friends and family; (3) Diverse health-related challenges: children’s symptoms affected daily functioning but were also triggers for changes in thoughts and mood; (4) Coping and resilience: children actively engaged in symptom management and were able to ‘self-pace’ and/or employ distraction activities to cope. They were also focused on living a ‘normal’ life and looked to the future with great positivity. A key challenge of the long-term effects of COVID is recognizing and treating the illness in children and the subsequent impact on multiple aspects of their lives. Even though children described feeling disconnected in many ways, their life goals were still important. A multi-faceted approach is needed for management of this illness, with a focus on helping these children successfully reintegrate into society and achieve their dreams.

Keywords: children’s illness experience, COVID-19, long-COVID in children, long-COVID kids, qualitative research

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Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed

Abstract:

This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.

Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT

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Authors: Peng Yew Wong

Abstract:

House prices in the Australian capital cities were at record levels subsequent to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 and many believed that foreign investors, especially the Chinese investors, were the main reason for the Australian capital cities’ house prices escalation. This research conducted an Australian cross border semi-structured interviews in Shanghai, China to uncover historical evidence and emerging trend supporting the existence of a significant relationship between overseas investors and residential housing markets performance in Australia subsequent to the GFC 2008. Some unique investment strategies of private investors from China which emphasised on non-capitalist factors such as early education were identified, alongside with some insights on the significant China government policies that have incentivised the cross border investments from China. It is believed that this understanding will assist policy makers to effectively manage the overheated Australian residential property market without compromising the steady flow of FREI.

Keywords: Australian housing market, residential property, foreign real estate investment, education, China investor

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Authors: Chueh Chi-An, Chan Hui-Ya

Abstract:

Background and Aim: National Health Insurance (NHI) Administration released a new reimbursement policy for hospital patients who received a superior discharge plan on April 1, 2016. Each case could be claimed 1,500 points for fee-of service with related documents. The policy is considered a solution to help reducing the crowding in the emergency department, the length of stay of hospital, unplanned readmission rate and unplanned ER visit. This study aim is to explore the effect of the new reimbursement policy for discharge planning service in a medical center. Methods: The discharge team explained to general wards the new policy and encouraged early assessment, communication and connecting to community care for patients. They stated the benefit from the policy and asked documenting for reimbursement claiming from April to May 2016. The imbursement fee of NHI declaration from June 2015 to October 2017 was collected. The indicators included hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction were analyzed after the policy implemented. Results: The results showed that the amount of service declaration was increasing from 2 cases in February 2016 to 110 cases in October 2017, the application rate was increasing from 0.029% to 1.576% of all inpatient cases, and the average payment from NHI was around 148,500 NT dollars per month in 2017. There are no significant differences in the indicators among hospital occupancy rate, hospital bed turnover rate, long-term hospitalization rate, and patients’ satisfaction. Conclusion: To provide a good discharge plan require a specialized case manager, the new reimbursement policy is too complicated and the total fee-of-service hospital could claim is too limited to hiring one. The results suggest more strategies combine with the new reimbursement policy will be needed.

Keywords: discharge planning, reimbursement, unplanned ER visit, readmission rate

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Authors: Koryukaeva Ksenia, Jinfeng Sun

Abstract:

Europe has been a traditional importer of Russian natural gas for more than 50 years. In 2021, Russian state-owned company Gazprom supplied about a third of all gas consumed in Europe. The Russia-Europe mutual dependence in terms of natural gas supplies has been causing many concerns about the energy security of the two sides for a long period of time. These days the issue has become more urgent than ever considering recent Russian invasion in Ukraine followed by increased large-scale geopolitical conflicts, making the future of Russian natural gas supplies and global gas markets as well highly uncertain. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to get insight into the possible futures of Russian pipeline natural gas exports by a scenario planning method based on Monte-Carlo simulation within LUSS model framework, and propose Russian pipeline natural gas export strategies based on the obtained scenario planning results. The scenario analysis revealed that recent geopolitical disputes disturbed the traditional, longstanding model of Russian pipeline gas exports, and, as a result, the prospects and the pathways for Russian pipeline gas on the world markets will differ significantly from those before 2022. Specifically, our main findings show, that (i) the events of 2022 generated many uncertainties for the long-term future of Russian pipeline gas export perspectives on both western and eastern supply directions, including geopolitical, regulatory, economic, infrastructure and other uncertainties; (ii) according to scenario modelling results, Russian pipeline exports will face many challenges in the future, both on western and eastern directions. A decrease in pipeline gas exports will inevitably affect country’s natural gas production and significantly reduce fossil fuel export revenues, jeopardizing the energy security of the country; (iii) according to proposed strategies, in order to ensure the long-term stable export supplies in the changing environment, Russia may need to adjust its traditional export strategy by performing export flows and product diversification, entering new markets, adapting its contracting mechanism, increasing competitiveness and gaining a reputation of a reliable gas supplier.

Keywords: Russian natural gas, Pipeline natural gas, Uncertainty, Scenario simulation, Export strategy

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