Search results for: cumulative incidence function (CIF)

Authors: Dong Chen, Han Song, Tingting Wei

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Industrial zones have made significant contributions to the economic development of Chinese urban areas for decades. In the background of China's New Normal, numbers of mature industrial zones are stepping into a new stage of inventory development instead of increment development. The aim of this study is to discover new characteristics and problems and corresponding inventory planning guidance of mature industrial zones. A case of Yangzhou Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone is reported in this study. Based on a historical analysis and data analysis of land-use, it is found that land-use of the zone is near saturation and signs of land updating have begun to appear. It is observed that the zone is facing problems including disorder of land development, low economic productivity and single function. Through the data of economic output, tax contribution, industrial category, industry life cycle and environmental influence, a comprehensive assessment based on two dimensions, economic benefits and industrial matchup, is made upon every parcel in the zone. According to the assessment, the zone is divided into spatial units of the update with specific planning guidance. It comes to a conclusion as four directions of inventory planning guidance in mature industrial zones: moving industries with poor economic benefit and negative environmental influence, adding urban function and new industrial function to the zone, optimizing the function of important space, and restricting the mass layout of the real estate industry to provide space for industrial upgrading.

Keywords: China's new normal, mature industrial zones, land-use, inventory planning

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

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Authors: Ghada Esheba, Ghadeer Aldoobi, Salwa Almalk, Abrar Alshareef, Eman Al-khairi, Eman Yaseen

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Background: In Saudi Arabia, ovarian cancer ranked seventh among female population and is the most common female genital tract malignancy after endometrial cancer. A slight increase in the incidence of ovarian cancer was observed from 2001–2008. Makkah, Riyadh, and the eastern region of Saudi Arabia had the highest incidence rate ratio for the number of ovarian cancer cases (1). Differentiating metastatic adenocarcinomas from primary ovarian carcinomas, especially those of endometrioid and mucinous type is clinically significant and a challenge for clinicians and pathologists, yet the distinction has important therapeutic and prognostic implications. Aim: To clarify the most important histopathological criteria to differentiate between primary ovarian surface epithelial tumors especially mucinous and endometrioid subtypes, and metastatic adenocarcinoma and to evaluate the value of a panel of antibodies consisting of CK7, CK20, and CDX-2 in the distinction between primary ovarian surface epithelial tumors and metastatic adenocarcinoma. Material and methods: This study was carried out on 26 cases of primary ovarian surface epithelial neoplasms and 14 cases of metastatic ovarian adenocarcinoma. All cases were studied immunohistochemically using CK7, CK20, and CDX-2. Results: All cases of primary ovarian adenocarcinoma were positive for CK7. 25% and 58% of mucinous borderline mucinous tumor and mucinous carcinoma respectively were positive for CK20. Only 42% of mucinous carcinoma were positive for CDX-2. All cases of endometrioid carcinomas were negative for both CK20 and CDX-2. All cases of metastatic adenocarcinoma from the colon were negative for CK7 and positive for CK20 and CDX-2. Conclusions: CK7 is an important positive marker for primary ovarian tumors, while CK20 and CDX-2 are useful markers for colorectal carcinoma metastatic to the ovary. Caution should be taken as primary ovarian mucinous tumors may stain positive for CK20, CDX-2, or both, however, they usually exhibit a focal pattern of reactivity.

Keywords: adenoma, endometrioid, malignancy, ovarian

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Authors: Md. Moinul Islam, N. M. Golam Zakaria

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Seakeeping analysis of catamaran vessels in the earlier stages of design has become an important issue as it dictates the seakeeping characteristics, and it ensures safe navigation during the voyage. In the present paper, a 3D numerical method for the seakeeping prediction of catamaran vessel is presented using the 3D Green Function method. Both steady and unsteady potential flow problem is dealt with here. Using 3D linearized potential theory, the dynamic wave loads and the subsequent response of the vessel is computed. For validation of the numerical procedure catamaran vessel composed of twin, Wigley form demi-hull is used. The results of the present calculation are compared with the available experimental data and also with other calculations. The numerical procedure is also carried out for NPL-based round bilge catamaran, and hydrodynamic coefficients along with heave and pitch motion responses are presented for various Froude number. The results obtained by the present numerical method are found to be in fairly good agreement with the available data. This can be used as a design tool for predicting the seakeeping behavior of catamaran ships in waves.

Keywords: catamaran, hydrodynamic coefficients , motion response, 3D green function

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Authors: M. R. Akbari, M. Sadeghi, R. Faghihi, M. A. Mosleh-Shirazi, A. R. Khorrami-Moghadam

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Proton radiotherapy (PRT) is becoming an established treatment modality for cancer. The localized tumors, the same as undifferentiated thyroid tumors are insufficiently handled by conventional radiotherapy, while protons would propose the prospect of increasing the tumor dose without exceeding the tolerance of the surrounding healthy tissues. In spite of relatively high advantages in giving localized radiation dose to the tumor region, in proton therapy, secondary neutron production can have significant contribution on integral dose and lessen advantages of this modality contrast to conventional radiotherapy techniques. Furthermore, neutrons have high quality factor, therefore, even a small physical dose can cause considerable biological effects. Measuring of this neutron dose is a very critical step in prediction of secondary cancer incidence. It has been found that FLUKA Monte Carlo code simulations have been used to evaluate dose due to secondaries in proton therapy. In this study, first, by validating simulated proton beam range in water phantom with CSDA range from NIST for the studied proton energy range (34-54 MeV), a proton therapy in thyroid gland cancer was simulated using FLUKA code. Secondary neutron dose equivalent of some organs and tissues after the target volume caused by 34 and 54 MeV proton interactions were calculated in order to evaluate secondary cancer incidence. A multilayer cylindrical neck phantom considering all the layers of neck tissues and a proton beam impinging normally on the phantom were also simulated. Trachea (accompanied by Larynx) had the greatest dose equivalent (1.24×10-1 and 1.45 pSv per primary 34 and 54 MeV protons, respectively) among the simulated tissues after the target volume in the neck region.

Keywords: FLUKA code, neutron dose equivalent, proton therapy, thyroid gland

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Authors: T. T. Tham

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The aim of this study is to propose an integrated approach to determine the most suitable programs, based on Quality Function Deployment (QFD), Sensitivity Analysis (SA) and Multi-Objective Linear Programming model (MOLP). Firstly, QFD is used to determine business requirements and transform them into business and supply chain programs. From the QFD, technical scores of all programs are obtained. All programs are then evaluated through five criteria (productivity, quality, cost, technical score, and feasibility). Sets of weight of these criteria are built using Sensitivity Analysis. Multi-Objective Linear Programming model is applied to select suitable programs according to multiple conflicting objectives under a budget constraint. A case study from the Sai Gon-Mien Tay Beer Company is given to illustrate the proposed methodology. The outcome of the study provides a comprehensive picture for companies to select suitable programs to obtain the optimal solution according to their preference.

Keywords: business program, multi-objective linear programming model, quality function deployment, sensitivity analysis, supply chain management

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Authors: Sajid Hussain

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The complex domain approach for image segmentation based on active contour has been designed, which deforms step by step to partition an image into numerous expedient regions. A novel region-based trigonometric complex pressure force function is proposed, which propagates around the region of interest using image forces. The signed trigonometric force function controls the propagation of the active contour and the active contour stops on the exact edges of the object accurately. The proposed model makes the level set function binary and uses Gaussian smoothing kernel to adjust and escape the re-initialization procedure. The working principle of the proposed model is as follows: The real image data is transformed into complex data by iota (i) times of image data and the average iota (i) times of horizontal and vertical components of the gradient of image data is inserted in the proposed model to catch complex gradient of the image data. A simple finite difference mathematical technique has been used to implement the proposed model. The efficiency and robustness of the proposed model have been verified and compared with other state-of-the-art models.

Keywords: image segmentation, active contour, level set, Mumford and Shah model

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Authors: Likewin Thomas, M. V. Manoj Kumar, B. Annappa

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The aim of this study was to develop an Artificial Neural Network0 s recommendation model for an online process using the complexity of load, performance, and average servicing time of the resources. Here, the proposed model investigates the resource performance using stochastic gradient decent method for learning ranking function. A probabilistic cost function is implemented to identify the optimal θ values (load) on each resource. Based on this result the recommendation of resource suitable for performing the currently executing task is made. The test result of CoSeLoG project is presented with an accuracy of 72.856%.

Keywords: ADALINE, neural network, gradient decent, process mining, resource behaviour, polynomial regression model

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Authors: Adji Achmad Rinaldo Fernandes, Usriatur Rohma

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Nonparametric path analysis is a statistical method that does not rely on the assumption that the curve is known. The purpose of this study is to determine the best truncated spline nonparametric path function between linear and quadratic polynomial degrees with 1, 2, and 3 knot points and to determine the significance of estimating the best truncated spline nonparametric path function in the model of the effect of perceived benefits and perceived convenience on behavior to convert waste into economic value through the intention variable of changing people's mindset about waste using the t test statistic at the jackknife resampling stage. The data used in this study are primary data obtained from research grants. The results showed that the best model of nonparametric truncated spline path analysis is quadratic polynomial degree with 3 knot points. In addition, the significance of the best truncated spline nonparametric path function estimation using jackknife resampling shows that all exogenous variables have a significant influence on the endogenous variables.

Keywords: nonparametric path analysis, truncated spline, linear, kuadratic, behavior to turn waste into economic value, jackknife resampling

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Authors: Jatinderdeep Kaur

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In this paper, the results of Kano from one-dimensional cosine and sine series are extended to two-dimensional cosine and sine series. To extend these results, some classes of coefficient sequences such as the class of semi convexity and class R are extended from one dimension to two dimensions. Under these extended classes, I have checked the function f(x,y) is two dimensional Fourier Cosine and Sine series or equivalently it represents an integrable function. Further, some results are obtained which are the generalization of Moricz's results.

Keywords: conjugate dirichlet kernel, conjugate fejer kernel, fourier series, semi-convexity

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Jakub Gren

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The recent transfer of banking supervision to the ECB has expanded its influence as of a non-majoritarian and technocratic policy-shaper in EU supervisory policies. To fulfil the main policy objectives of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, the ECB has been tasked with building a single supervisory approach to supervised banks across the euro area and is now exclusively responsible for direct supervision of the largest ‘significant’ euro area banks and the oversight of the remaining ‘less significant’ banks. This enhanced supranational position of the ECB significantly alters the EU institutional order and creates powerful incentives to actively pursue integrationist agenda by the ECB. However, this drastic shift has a little impact upon adapting the ECB’s new supervisory mandate to the requirements of democratic legitimacy. Whereas the ECB’s strong pre-crisis independence and limited accountability could be reconciled with democratic principles through a clearly articulated price stability mandate, independence and limited accountability in the context of a more complex supervisory mandate is problematic. Hence, in order to ensure the democratic legitimacy of the ECB/SSM’s supervisory policies, the ECB’s supervisory mandate requires both a lower scope of independence and higher accountability requirements. To address this situation, organizational separation (“Chinese Wall”) between the ECB monetary and supervisory arms was introduced. This separation includes different reporting lines and the relocation of the ECB’s monetary function to a new building complex while leaving its supervisory function at the Euro-tower (“Two Towers”). This paper argues that these measures are not sufficient to establish proper checks and balances on the ECB’s powers to pursue euro zone’s wide supervisory policies. As a remedy, this contribution suggests that the ECB’s Treaties-embedded independence, as set out by art. 130 TFEU, designed to carry out its monetary function shall not be fully applicable to its supervisory function. Indeed functional and conditional reading of this provision to ECB supervisory function could enhance the legitimacy of future ECB’s supervisory action.

Keywords: accountability and transparency, democratic governance, financial management, rule of law

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Authors: Seyed Abbas Tabatabaei, Marjan Naderan Tahan, Arman Kadkhodai

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An efficient optimization approach, called feasible gate (FG), is developed to enhance the computation efficiency and solution quality of the previously developed highway alignment optimization (HAO) model. This approach seeks to realistically represent various user preferences and environmentally sensitive areas and consider them along with geometric design constraints in the optimization process. This is done by avoiding the generation of infeasible solutions that violate various constraints and thus focusing the search on the feasible solutions. The proposed method is simple, but improves significantly the model’s computation time and solution quality. On the other, highway alignment optimization through Feasible Gates, eventuates only economic model by considering minimum design constrains includes minimum reduce of circular curves, minimum length of vertical curves and road maximum gradient. This modelling can reduce passenger comfort and road safety. In most of highway optimization models, by adding penalty function for each constraint, final result handles to satisfy minimum constraint. In this paper, we want to propose a safety-function solution by introducing gift function.

Keywords: safety, highway geometry, optimization, alignment

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Authors: Hudson Akewe

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This research presents complementary results with wider applications on convergence and rate of convergence of classical fixed point theory in Banach spaces to the world of the theory of fixed points of mappings defined in classes of spaces of measurable functions, known in the literature as modular function spaces. The study gives a comprehensive survey of various iterative fixed point results for the classes of multivalued ρ-contractive-like, ρ-quasi-contractive-like, ρ-quasi-contractive, ρ-Zamfirescu and ρ-contraction mappings in the framework of modular function spaces. An example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the implicit-type iterative schemes to the system of ordinary differential equations. Furthermore, numerical examples are given to show the rate of convergence of the various explicit Kirk-type and implicit Kirk-type iterative schemes under consideration. Our results complement the results obtained on normed and metric spaces in the literature. Also, our methods of proof serve as a guide to obtain several similar improved results for nonexpansive, pseudo-contractive, and accretive type mappings.

Keywords: implicit Kirk-type iterative schemes, multivalued mappings, convergence results, fixed point

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Authors: Dong Xie, Leah Howard, Yiming Weng

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The objective of this study was to synthesize and characterize 5-acryloyloxy-3,4-dichlorocrotonolactone (a furanone derivative), use this derivative to modify a dental restorative, and study the effect of the derivative on the antibacterial activity and compressive strength of the formed restorative. In this study, a furanone derivative was synthesized, characterized, and used to formulate a dental restorative. Compressive strength (CS) and S. mutans viability were used to evaluate the mechanical strength and antibacterial activity of the formed restorative. The fabricated restorative specimens were photocured and conditioned in distilled water at 37oC for 24 h, followed by direct testing for CS or/and incubating with S. mutans for 48 h for antibacterial testing. The results show that the modified dental restorative showed a significant antibacterial activity without substantially decreasing the mechanical strengths. With addition of the antibacterial derivative up to 30%, the restorative kept its original CS nearly unchanged but showed a significant antibacterial activity with 68% reduction in the S. mutans viability. Furthermore, the antibacterial function of the modified restorative was not affected by human saliva. The aging study also indicates that the modified restorative may have a long-lasting antibacterial function. It is concluded that this experimental antibacterial restorative may potentially be developed into a clinically attractive dental filling restorative due to its high mechanical strength and antibacterial function.

Keywords: antibacterial, dental restorative, compressive strength, S. mutans viability

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Authors: Hussain Hameed Mayuuf

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We may find multiple functions that are required to exist in order for meaning, in any certain context, to manifest and act accordingly. Pragmatic function and symbolic function need to be contributing in a combined effort towards that manifestation in order for meaning to be acquired or achieved from within a structure too complex to detect meaning in it by employing any other means. This paper inspects symbolism pragma-stylistically in literary texts. Thus, it principally aims at showing the ways writers utilize symbolism to contribute to the themes of their works and, consequently, pinpointing the most frequently flouted maxim involved in symbolic interpretations in addition to the reason(s) behind the writer's exploitation of that maxim in the literary work. E. E. Cummings' play Him constitutes rich data for the present study. Thus, to achieve its aims, the present study hypothesizes that the descriptions of scenes, the playwright’s remarks, and the characters’ references are all manipulated symbolically to contribute to the themes of the play. It is also hypothesized that the maxim of manner is the most frequently flouted maxim involved in symbolic interpretations in the play, which comes as a result of the intended ambiguity and obscurity manipulated in the descriptions of the scenes, the playwright’s remarks and the characters’ references. In order to achieve the aims of the study and test its hypotheses, a theoretical background about symbolism in general and symbolism from pragma-stylistic points of view is presented. Then, (six) extracts of Him according to Eco’s (1984) model Semiotics and the Philosophy of Language are analyzed. The findings of the analysis verify the above-mentioned hypotheses.

Keywords: pragmatic function, stylistic function, Symbolism, pragma-stylistics, Cummings

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Authors: Pan Hongxia, Wang Zhenhua

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In this paper, the EMD decomposition in the process of endpoint effect adopted data based on AR model to predict the continuation and window function method of combining the two effective inhibition. Proven by simulation of the simulation signal obtained the ideal effect, then, apply this method to the gearbox test data is also achieved good effect in the process, for the analysis of the subsequent data processing to improve the calculation accuracy. In the end, under various working conditions for the gearbox fault diagnosis laid a good foundation.

Keywords: gearbox, fault diagnosis, ar model, end effect

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Authors: Arman Kishan, Mark Haft, Steve Li, Duc Nguyen, Dawn Laporte

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Objective: Patients with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) often face higher postoperative complication rates. Limited data exist on outcomes in T2DM patients undergoing carpal tunnel release (CTR). This study aims to compare complication rates between endoscopic CTR (ECTR) and open CTR (OCTR) in patients with T2DM. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX database of 56741 patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR (N= 14,949) or OCTR (N= 41,792). Demographic data, medical comorbidities, and complication rates were analyzed. We used multivariable analysis to identify differences in postoperative complication rates between the two treatment methods in patients with T2DM. Results: Patients with T2DM undergoing ECTR had a significantly lower incidence of 90-day wound infection (p < 0.001), 90-day wound dehiscence (p < 0.001), and nerve injury (p < 0.001) when compared to patients who underwent OCTR. After matching, there was a significantly higher number of T2DM patients undergoing ECTR who had peripheral vascular disease (p = 0.045) and hypertension (p = 0.020) when compared to the OCTR group. These patients also had a lower incidence of fluid and electrolyte disorders (p = 0.002) and chronic blood loss anemia (p = 0.025). Conclusion: ECTR presents a superior choice for T2DM patients undergoing CTR, yielding significantly lower rates of wound infection, wound dehiscence, and nerve injury within 90 days post-surgery—reducing the risk by 31%, 48%, and 59%, respectively. These findings support the adoption of ECTR as the preferred method in this patient population, potentially leading to improved postoperative outcomes.

Keywords: endoscopic treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, open treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome, carpal tunnel syndrome, postoperative complications in patients with diabetes mellitus

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Authors: Tet H. Yeap

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An analog restricted Hopfield Network is presented in this paper. It consists of two layers of nodes, visible and hidden nodes, connected by directional weighted paths forming a bipartite graph with no intralayer connection. An energy or Lyapunov function was derived to show that the proposed network will converge to stable states. By introducing hidden nodes, the proposed network can be trained to store patterns and has increased memory capacity. Training to be an associative memory, simulation results show that the associative memory performs better than a classical Hopfield network by being able to perform better memory recall when the input is noisy.

Keywords: restricted Hopfield network, Lyapunov function, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation

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Authors: Djeridi Rachid, Ould Ouali Mohand

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The search of a mechanism for the elastomer abrasive wear study is an open issue. The practice difficulties are complex due to the complexity of deformation mechanism, to the complex mechanism of the material tearing and to the marked interactions between the tribological parameters. In this work, we present an experimental technique to study the elastomers abrasive wear. The interaction 'elastomer/indenter' implicate dependant ant temporary of different tribological parameters. Consequently, the phenomenon that governs this interaction is not easy to explain. An optimal elastomers compounding and an adequate utilization conditions of these materials that define its resistance at the abrasion is discussed. The results are confronted to theoretical models: the weight loss variation in function of blade angle or in function of cycle number is in agreement with rupture models and with the mechanism of fissures propagation during the material tearing in abrasive wear of filler elastomers. The weight loss in function of the sliding velocity shows the existence of a critical velocity that corresponds to the maximal wear. The adding of silica or black carbon influences in a different manner on wear abrasive behavior of filler elastomers.

Keywords: abrasion wear, filler elastomer, tribology, hyperelastic

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Authors: Abdulwhab Alotaibi, Abdullah Alzahrani, Ziyad Bokhari, Abdulelah Alghamdi

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First described in 1975 by Dr. Miller, Medical dressings are uncommon but possible cause of hand digital ischemia due the tourniquet-like effect. The incident of this complication has been reported across wide range of age-groups, yet it seems like that the pediatric population are specifically vulnerable. Multiple dressing types were reported to have caused ischemic injury, such as elastic wrap, tubular gauze, and self-adherent dressings. We present a case of medical dressing induced digital ischemia in patient with Congenital insensitivity to pain and anhidrosis (CIPA), which further challenge the discovery of the condition. An 8-year-old girl known case of CIPA. Brought by her mother to the ER after nail bed injury, which she managed by application of elastic wrap that was left for 24 hours. When the mother found out she immediately removed the elastic band, and noticed the fingertip was black and cold with tense bullae. The color then changed later when she arrived to the ER to dark purple with bluish discoloration on the tip. On examination there was well demarcated tense bullae on the distal right fifth finger. Neurovascular intact, pulse oximetry on distal digit 100%, capillary refill time was delayed. She was seen under Plastic surgery and conservative management recommended, and patient was discharged with safety netting. Two days later the patient came as follow-up visit at which her condition demonstrated significant improvement, the bullae has since ruptured leaving behind sloughed skin, capillary refill and pulse oximetry were both within normal limits, sensory function couldn’t be assessed but her motor function and ROM were normal, topical bacitracin and bandage dressings were applied for the eroded skin. Patient was scheduled for a follow-up in 2 weeks. Preventatively it’s advisable to avoid the commonly implicated dressings such as elastic, tubular gauze or self-adherent wraps in hand or digital injuries when possible, but in cases where the use of these dressings is of necessity the appropriate precautions must be taken, Dr. Makarewich proposed the following 5 measures to help minimize the incidence of the injury: 1-Unwrapping 12 inches of the dressing before rolling the injured finger. 2-Wrapping from distal to proximal with minimal tension to avoid vascular embarrassment. 3-The use of 5-25 inch to overlap the entire wrap. 4-Maintaining light pressure over the wrap to allow adherence of the dressing. 5-Minimization of the number of layers used to wrap the affected digit. Also assessing the capillary refill after the application can help in determining the patency of the supplying blood vessels. It’s also important to selectively determine if the patient is a candidate for conservative management, as tailored approach can help in maximizing the positive outcomes for our patients.

Keywords: congenital insensitivity to pain, digital ischemia, medical dressing, conservative management

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Authors: Einat E. Peles, Shaul Schreiber, Miriam Adelson

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Background: Since established more than 50 years ago, methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) is the most effective treatment for opioid addiction, a chronic relapsing brain disorder that became an epidemic in western societies. Treatment includes daily individual optimal medication methadone dose (a long acting mu opioid receptor full agonist), accompanied with psychosocial therapy. It is well established that the longer retention in treatment the better outcome and survival occur. It reduces the likelihood to infectious diseases and overdose death that associated with drug injecting, enhanced social rehabilitation and eliminate criminal activity, and lead to healthy productive life. Aim: To evaluate predictors for long term retention in treatment we analyzed our prospective follow up of a major MMT clinic affiliated to a big tertiary medical center. Population Methods: Between June 25, 1993, and June 24, 2016, all 889 patients ( ≥ 18y) who ever admitted to the clinic were prospectively followed-up until May 2017. Duration in treatment from the first admission until the patient quit treatment or until the end of follow-up (24 years) was taken for calculating cumulative retention in treatment using survival analyses (Kaplan Meier) with log-rank and Cox regression for multivariate analyses. Results: Of the 889 patients, 25.2% were females who admitted to treatment at younger age (35.0 ± 7.9 vs. 40.6 ± 9.8, p < .0005), but started opioid usage at same age (22.3 ± 6.9). In addition to opioid use, on admission to MMT 58.5% had positive urine for benzodiazepines, 25% to cocaine, 12.4% to cannabis and 6.9% to amphetamines. Hepatitis C antibody tested positive in 55%, and HIV in 7.8% of the patients and 40%. Of all patients, 75.7% stayed at least one year in treatment, and of them, 67.7% stopped opioid usage (based on urine tests), and a net reduction observed in all other substance abuse (proportion of those who stopped minus proportion of those who have started). Long term retention up to 24 years was 8.0 years (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 7.4-8.6). Predictors for longer retention in treatment (Cox regression) were being older on admission ( ≥ 30y) Odds Ratio (OR) =1.4 (CI 1.1-1.8), not abusing opioids after one year OR=1.8 (CI 1.5-2.1), not abusing benzodiazepine after one year OR=1.7 (CI 1.4-2.1) and treating with methadone dose ≥ 100mg/day OR =1.8 (CI 1.5-2.3). Conclusions: Treating and following patients over 24 years indicate success of two main outcomes, high rate of retention after one year (75.7%) and high proportion of opiate abuse cessation (67.7%). As expected, longer cumulative retention was associated with patients treated with high adequate methadone dose that successfully result in opioid cessation. Based on these findings, in order to reduce morbidity and mortality, we find the establishment of more MMT clinics within a general hospital, a most urgent necessity.

Keywords: methadone maintenance treatment, epidemic, opioids, retention

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Authors: Behnaz Zolfaghari

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In civilized societies, linguists seek to find suitable equivalents for scientific terms in the common language of their society. Many researches have conducted surveys about language of science on one hand and media discourse on the other, but the goal of this research is the comparative analysis of science discourse in Persian academic media and public discourse in the general Persian media by applying experimental meta-function as one of the four theoretical tools introduced by Holiday’s Systemic Functional Grammar .The said analysis aims to explore the processes that can convert the language in which scientific facts are published to a language well suited to the interested layman. The results of comparison show that these two discourses use differently six processes of experimental meta-function. Comparing the redundancy of different processes, the researcher tried to re-identify these differences in these two discourses and present a model for the procedures of converting science discourse to popularized discourse. This model can be useful for those journalists and textbook authors who want to restate scientific technical texts in a simple style for inexpert addresser including general people and students.

Keywords: systemic functional grammar, discourse analysis, science language, popularization, media discourse

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

Abstract:

Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Kin On Kwok, Vivian Wei, Benjamin Cowling, Steven Riley, Jonathan Read

Abstract:

Background: The role of social contact behavior measured in different contact constructs in the transmission of respiratory pathogens with acute respiratory illness (ARI) remains unclear. We, therefore, aim to depict the individual pattern of ARI in the community and investigate the association between different contact dimensions and ARI in Hong Kong. Methods: Between June 2013 and September 2013, 620 subjects participated in the last two waves of recruitment of the population based longitudinal phone social contact survey. Some of the subjects in this study are from the same household. They are also provided with the symptom diaries to self-report any acute respiratory illness related symptoms between the two days of phone recruitment. Data from 491 individuals who were not infected on the day of phone recruitment and returned the symptom diaries after the last phone recruitment were used for analysis. Results: After adjusting different follow-up periods among individuals, the overall incidence rate of ARI was 1.77 per 100 person-weeks. Over 75% ARI episodes involve running nose, cough, sore throat, which are followed by headache (55%), malagia (35%) and fever (18%). Using a generalized estimating equation framework accounting for the cluster effect of subjects living in the same household, we showed that both daily number of locations visited with contacts and the number of contacts, explained the ARI incidence rate better than only one single contact construct. Conclusion: Our result suggests that it is the intertwining property of contact quantity (number of contacts) and contact intensity (ratio of subject-to-contact) that governs the infection risk by a collective set of respiratory pathogens. Our results provide empirical evidence that multiple contact constructs should be incorporated in the mathematical transmission models to feature a more realistic dynamics of respiratory disease.

Keywords: acute respiratory illness, longitudinal study, social contact, symptom diaries

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Authors: Razia Anjum, Zaqia Bano, Chan Wai

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Temperament has been described as a multifaceted and potentially value-laden construct in literature but there is scarcity of research work in area of forensic psychology predominantly in south Asian countries. Present exposition explored the mediated effect of temperament towards the childhood maltreatment and delinquency. Further the moderated effect of prisoner’s age and education will be examined. Variable System for Windows 1.3 version was used to analyze the data provided by 517 prisoners (407 males, 110 females) from four districts prisons situated at Pakistan. Cross sectional research design was used in this study and representative sample was approached through purposive sampling technique. Only those prisoners were the part of study who maltreated in their childhood in form of physical abuse, psychological abuse, sexual abuse or experienced the emotional neglect. After exploration the childhood adversities through ‘Child Abuse Self-Report Scale’, then the prisoner’s temperament styles were explored through ‘Adult Temperament Scale’. Later on, the investigation with particular to the delinquent behaviors was carried out. The findings suggested that the presence of four temperamental styles (choleric, melancholic, phlegmatic, and sanguine) mediated the childhood maltreatment-delinquency relationship in late adulthood but not in early adulthood. Marked exploration was the significant moderated effect of Prisoner’s age and their level of education that effect the relationship of temperament towards the childhood maltreatment and the delinquency, in this way results are consistent with views on cumulative pathways to delinquency that undergone through the effect of childhood maltreatment. Results indicated that Choleric, Melancholic temperament was the positive predictor of delinquency, whereas. The Phlegmatic and Sanguine temperament were the negative predictor of delinquency, in this way, different types of temperament left an indelible trace on delinquency that can work out by modifying the individual temperament. On the basis of results, it could be concluded that inclination towards the delinquent behaviors including theft, drug abuse, lying, noncompliance behavior, police encounter, violence, cheating, gambling, harassment, homosexuality and heterosexuality could be minimized if properly screen out the temperament. Moreover, study determined the two other significant moderated effect of age towards the involvement in delinquent behaviors and moderated effect of education towards childhood maltreatment and the temperament. Findings suggested that with marked increase in number of years in age the probability to get involve in delinquent behaviors will decrease and the result was consistent with the assumption that education can work as buffered to maximize or minimize the effect of trauma and can shape the temperament accordingly. Results are consistent with views on cumulative disadvantage with the socio-psychological faultiness of community.

Keywords: delinquent behaviors, temperament, prisoners, moderated mediation analysis

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Authors: K. K. Bolarinwa, A. F. O. Ayinde, B. B. Abiona, O. Oyekunle

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Conflict and HIV/AIDS infection have had a profound impact on the Sub-Saharan African societies, individually and collectively. Nigeria has been experiencing several violent conflicts in many communities across the geographical spread of the country. These conflicts which often lead to loss of lives, properties and loss of livelihoods are mainly felt by women in terms of increased responsibility towards affected family members with attendant decrease in livelihood options. Despite these, conflict issues have not really received enough focal attention by Nigerian academics. It is against this backdrop that this study was undertaken to describe the respondents, the most prevalent conflict repercussions and most prevalent STDs, in conflict areas. Data were collected using interview schedule to elicit a response from 122 respondents in Southwest Nigeria, through a multi-stage sampling technique involving stratification of respondents into violent conflict areas (VCA) and non-violent conflict areas (NVCA). The data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics and correlation analysis. Results revealed that majority (86.5% and 70.5 %) of the respondents were in the age bracket of 10-39 years in both the VCA and NVCA respectively; 35.5% and 40.2% of the respondents were literate in VCA and NVCA, respectively while 76.5% and 55.8% of the respondents were in the lower income groups in VCA and NVCA, respectively. HIV/AIDS and gonorrhoea were the more predominant (75.2% and 55.6% respectively) STDs in the VCA as against 33.2% and 38.3% respectively in the NVCA. Further, significant (p<0.05) correlation existed between conflict incidence and spread of HIV/AIDS, rape and torture, maltreatment of women as well as sexual harassment; in both VCA and NVCA among others. The study concluded that conflict situations in the study area aggravated incidence of HIV/AIDS and made the women more vulnerable to inhuman treatments such as rape, torture and harassment with attendant reduction in sources of livelihoods. The study recommended among others that sensitisation on control and preventive measures of HIV/AID and other sexually transmitted diseases should be included in programme designed to mitigate against conflicts in the study areas.

Keywords: conflict, gender dimension, HIV/AIDS epidemiology, Nigeria

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Authors: Mahesh Kothari, K. D. Gharde

Abstract:

The ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) models were developed to predict the runoff and sediment yield for catchment of Kal river, India using 21 years (1991 to 2011) rainfall and other hydrological data (evaporation, temperature and streamflow lag by one and two day) and 7 years data for sediment yield modelling. The ANN model performance improved with increasing the input vectors. The fuzzy logic model was performing with R value more than 0.95 during developmental stage and validation stage. The comparatively FL model found to be performing well to ANN in prediction of runoff and sediment yield for Kal river.

Keywords: transferred function, sigmoid, backpropagation, membership function, defuzzification

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Authors: J. T. Koininga, J. E. Teigen, A. Wilkinson, D. Kanneh, F. Kanneh, M. Foday, D. S. Grant, M. Leach, L. M. Moses

Abstract:

Lassa fever (LF) is a severe febrile illness endemic to West Africa. While human-to-human transmission occurs, evidence suggests most LF cases originate from exposure to rodents, particularly the Natal multimammate mouse, Mastomys natalensis. Within West Africa, LF occurs primarily in rural communities where agriculture is the main economic activity. Seasonality of LF has also been linked to agricultural cycles, with peak incidence occurring in the dry season when fields are burned and plowed. To investigate this pattern of seasonality, four agricultural communities were selected for this two-year longitudinal study. Each community was to be sampled four times each year, but this was interrupted by the Ebola virus disease outbreak. Agricultural land use, forested, and fallow areas were identified through participatory mapping. Transects were plotted in each area and Sherman traps were set for four nights. Captured small mammals were identified, ear tagged, and released. Mastomys natalensis abundance was found to be highest in areas of converted fallow land and rice swamps in the dry season and upland mixed crop areas toward the onset of the rainy season. All peak times were associated with heavy perturbation of soil. All ages and genders were present during these time points. These results suggest that peak abundance of the Mastomys natalensis in agricultural areas coincides with peak incidence of LF reported in this region. Although contact with rodents may be higher in villages, our study suggests human behaviors in agricultural areas may increase risk of transmission of Lassa virus.

Keywords: agriculture, land use, Lassa Fever, rodent abundance

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