Search results for: climate physics
2561 Bayesian Networks Scoping the Climate Change Impact on Winter Wheat Freezing Injury Disasters in Hebei Province, China
Authors: Xiping Wang,Shuran Yao, Liqin Dai
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Many studies report the winter is getting warmer and the minimum air temperature is obviously rising as the important climate warming evidences. The exacerbated air temperature fluctuation tending to bring more severe weather variation is another important consequence of recent climate change which induced more disasters to crop growth in quite a certain regions. Hebei Province is an important winter wheat growing province in North of China that recently endures more winter freezing injury influencing the local winter wheat crop management. A winter wheat freezing injury assessment Bayesian Network framework was established for the objectives of estimating, assessing and predicting winter wheat freezing disasters in Hebei Province. In this framework, the freezing disasters was classified as three severity degrees (SI) among all the three types of freezing, i.e., freezing caused by severe cold in anytime in the winter, long extremely cold duration in the winter and freeze-after-thaw in early season after winter. The factors influencing winter wheat freezing SI include time of freezing occurrence, growth status of seedlings, soil moisture, winter wheat variety, the longitude of target region and, the most variable climate factors. The climate factors included in this framework are daily mean and range of air temperature, extreme minimum temperature and number of days during a severe cold weather process, the number of days with the temperature lower than the critical temperature values, accumulated negative temperature in a potential freezing event. The Bayesian Network model was evaluated using actual weather data and crop records at selected sites in Hebei Province using real data. With the multi-stage influences from the various factors, the forecast and assessment of the event-based target variables, freezing injury occurrence and its damage to winter wheat production, were shown better scoped by Bayesian Network model.Keywords: bayesian networks, climatic change, freezing Injury, winter wheat
Procedia PDF Downloads 4012560 Soil Carbon Stock in Sub-Optimal Land for the Development of Cymbopogon Nardus L. At Simawang Village, West Sumatera, Indonesia
Authors: Juniarti, Yusniwati, Anwar. A, Armansyah, Febriamansyah, R.
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Simawang area is one of the critical areas (sub-optimal) that experienced drought from climate changes. Potential dry land belonging to sub-optimal in Simawang, West Sumatera, Indonesia not been fully utilized for agricultural cultivation. Simawang village, West Sumatera, Indonesia is formerly known as the rice barn, due to the climate change area is experiencing a drought, so the rice fields that were once productive now a grazing paddock because of lack of water. This study aims to calculate the soil carbon stock in Simawang village, West Sumatera Indonesia. The study was conducted in Simawang village, Tanah Datar regency, West Sumatera from October 2014 until December 2017. The study was conducted on sub-optimal land to be planted with Cymbopogon nardus L. (Sereh wangi in Indonesian language). Composite soil sampling conducted at a depth of 0-20 cm, 20 – 40 cm. Based on the depth of soil carbon stocks gained higher ground 6473 t ha-1 at a depth of 0-20 cm at a depth of 20-40 cm. Efforts to increase soil carbon is expected to be cultivated through Cymbopogon nardus L. planting has been done.Keywords: climate changes, sereh wangi (Cymbopogon nardus L.), soil carbon stock, sub optimal land
Procedia PDF Downloads 4552559 Physics-Informed Convolutional Neural Networks for Reservoir Simulation
Authors: Jiangxia Han, Liang Xue, Keda Chen
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Despite the significant progress over the last decades in reservoir simulation using numerical discretization, meshing is complex. Moreover, the high degree of freedom of the space-time flow field makes the solution process very time-consuming. Therefore, we present Physics-Informed Convolutional Neural Networks(PICNN) as a hybrid scientific theory and data method for reservoir modeling. Besides labeled data, the model is driven by the scientific theories of the underlying problem, such as governing equations, boundary conditions, and initial conditions. PICNN integrates governing equations and boundary conditions into the network architecture in the form of a customized convolution kernel. The loss function is composed of data matching, initial conditions, and other measurable prior knowledge. By customizing the convolution kernel and minimizing the loss function, the neural network parameters not only fit the data but also honor the governing equation. The PICNN provides a methodology to model and history-match flow and transport problems in porous media. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed PICNN can provide an accurate physical solution from a limited dataset. We show how this method can be applied in the context of a forward simulation for continuous problems. Furthermore, several complex scenarios are tested, including the existence of data noise, different work schedules, and different good patterns.Keywords: convolutional neural networks, deep learning, flow and transport in porous media, physics-informed neural networks, reservoir simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 1342558 Religion and Risk: Unmasking Noah's Narratives in the Pacific Islands
Authors: A. Kolendo
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Pacific Islands are one of the most vulnerable areas to climate change. Sea level rise and accelerating storm surge continuously threaten the communities' habitats on low-lying atolls. With scientific predictions of encroaching tides on their land, the Islanders have been informed about the need for future relocation planning. However, some communities oppose such retreat strategies through the reasoning that comprehends current climatic changes through the lenses of the biblical ark of Noah. This parable states God's promise never to flood the Earth again and never deprive people of their land and habitats. Several interpretations of this parable emerged in Oceania, prompting either climate action or denial. Resistance to relocation planning expressed through Christian thoughts led religion to be perceived as a barrier to dialogue between the Islanders and scientists. Since climate change concerns natural processes, the attitudes towards environmental stewardship prompt the communities' responses to it; some Christian teachings indicate humanity's responsibility over the environment, whereas others ascertain the people's dominion, which prompts resistance and sometimes denial. With church denominations and their various environmental standpoints, competing responses to climate change emerged in Oceania. Before miss-ionization, traditional knowledge had guided the environmental sphere, influencing current Christian teachings. Each atoll characterizes a distinctive manner of traditional knowledge; however, the unique relationship with nature unites all islands. The interconnectedness between the land, sea and people indicates the integrity between the communities and their environments. Such a factor influences the comprehension of Noah's story in the context of climate change that threatens their habitats. Pacific Islanders experience climate change through the slow disappearance of their homelands. However, the Western world perceives it as a global issue that will affect the population in the long-term perspective. Therefore, the Islanders seek to comprehend this global phenomenon in a local context that reads climate change as the Great Deluge. Accordingly, the safety measures that this parable promotes compensate for the danger of climate change. The rainbow covenant gives hope in God's promise never to flood the Earth again. At the same time, Noah's survival relates to the Islanders' current situation. Since these communities have the lowest carbon emissions rate, their contribution to anthropogenic climate change is scarce. Therefore, the lack of environmental sin would contextualize them as contemporary Noah with the ultimate survival of sea level rise. This study aims to defy religion constituting a barrier through secondary data analysis from a risk compensation perspective. Instead, religion is portrayed as a source of knowledge that enables comprehension of the communities' situation. By demonstrating that the Pacific Islanders utilize Noah's story as a vessel for coping with the danger of climate change, the study argues that religion provides safety measures that compensate for the future projections of land's disappearance. The purpose is to build a bridge between religious communities and scientific bodies and ultimately bring an understanding of two diverse perspectives. By addressing the practical challenges of interdisciplinary research with faith-based systems, this study uplifts the voices of communities and portrays their experiences expressed through Christian thoughts.Keywords: Christianity, climate change, existential threat, Pacific Islands, story of Noah
Procedia PDF Downloads 872557 Implementing Smart Climate Change Measures for Effective Management of Primary Schools in Benue State, Nigeria
Authors: Justina Jor, Mahmud Pinga
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Climate change has become a significant worldwide environmental challenge with extensive implications, compelling both governments and non-governmental organizations to remain vigilant, as it seemingly impacts various sectors of the global economy, including education. The study investigates the implementation of smart climate change measures for effective primary school management in Benue State, Nigeria. Theorized by the diffusion of innovations, the study was guided by two research questions, and two null hypotheses were formulated and tested. The study used a descriptive survey design. The population comprised 12,364 teachers from 2,721 primary schools, with a sample of 618 teachers from 136 schools selected through a multistage sampling procedure. Smart climate change measures questionnaire (SCCMQ) and key informant interview (KII) were used for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using mean and standard deviation to answer the research questions, while the Chi-square (χ2) test of goodness-of-fit was used to test the hypotheses at a 0.05 level of significance, with qualitative data analyzed using simple percentages, tables, and bar charts. The findings highlight the significant positive impact of green building practices on the efficient administration of primary schools in Benue State, Nigeria. The crucial integration of environmentally sustainable construction methods is emphasized for enhancing overall management in these educational institutions. In addition, the research demonstrates a favorable impact on the adoption of renewable energy solutions and effective school management. The utilization of renewable energy not only aligns with eco-friendly practices but also contributes to the overall operational efficiency and sustainability of primary schools in the region. The study recommends that educational authorities and policymakers prioritize integrating green building practices and renewable energy solutions, pointing towards the prospect of improved governance and functionality for primary education facilities not only in Benue but throughout Nigeria.Keywords: smart, climate change, effective management, green building, renewable energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 582556 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Management System of Green Climate Fund's Accredited Entities: A Qualitative Approach Applied to Environmental and Social System
Authors: Sima Majnooni
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This paper discusses the Green Climate Fund's environmental and social management framework (GCF). The environmental and social management framework ensures the accredited entity considers the GCF's accreditation standards and effectively implements each of the GCF-funded projects. The GCF requires all accredited entities to meet basic transparency and accountability standards as well as environmental and social safeguards (ESMS). In doing so, the accredited entity sets up different independent units. One of these units is called the Grievance Mechanism. When allegations of environmental and social harms are raised in association with GCF-funded activities, affected parties can contact the entity’s grievance unit. One of the most challenging things about the accredited entity's grievance unit is the lack of available information and resources on the entities' websites. Many AEs have anti-corruption or anti-money laundering unit, but they do not have the environmental and social unit for affected people. This paper will argue the effectiveness of environmental and social grievance mechanisms of AEs by using a qualitative approach to indicate how many of AEs have a poor or an effective GRM. Some ESMSs seem highly effective. On the other hand, other mechanisms lack basic requirements such as a clear, transparent, uniform procedure and a definitive timetable. We have looked at each AE mechanism not only in light of how the website goes into detail regarding the process of grievance mechanism but also in light of their risk category. Many mechanisms appear inadequate for the lower level risk category entities (C) and, even surprisingly, for many higher-risk categories (A). We found; in most cases, the grievance mechanism of AEs seems vague.Keywords: grievance mechanism, vague environmental and social policies, green climate fund, international climate finance, lower and higher risk category
Procedia PDF Downloads 1172555 Leveraging Remote Sensing Information for Drought Disaster Risk Management
Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade
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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment
Procedia PDF Downloads 1832554 Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Change-Induced Climatic Effects
Authors: Mahesh K. Jat, Ankan Jana, Mahender Choudhary
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Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) are used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.Keywords: LULC, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, SEBAL, landsat, precipitation, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 1132553 Establishing a Model of the Environmental Behavior of College Students: The Example of Global Climate Change
Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu
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Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 4232552 Strategies to Achieve Deep Decarbonisation in Power Generation: A Review
Authors: Abdullah Alotaiq
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The transition to low-carbon power generation is essential for mitigating climate change and achieving sustainability. This process, however, entails considerable costs, and understanding the factors influencing these costs is critical. This is necessary to cater to the increasing demand for low-carbon electricity across the heating, industry, and transportation sectors. A crucial aspect of this transition is identifying cost-effective and feasible paths for decarbonization, which is integral to global climate mitigation efforts. It is concluded that hybrid solutions, combining different low-carbon technologies, are optimal for minimizing costs and enhancing flexibility. These solutions also address the challenges associated with phasing out existing fossil fuel-based power plants and broadening the spectrum of low-carbon power generation options.Keywords: review, power generation, energy transition, decarbonisation
Procedia PDF Downloads 462551 Climate Change Scenario Phenomenon in Malaysia: A Case Study in MADA Area
Authors: Shaidatul Azdawiyah Abdul Talib, Wan Mohd Razi Idris, Liew Ju Neng, Tukimat Lihan, Muhammad Zamir Abdul Rasid
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Climate change has received great attention worldwide due to the impact of weather causing extreme events. Rainfall and temperature are crucial weather components associated with climate change. In Malaysia, increasing temperatures and changes in rainfall distribution patterns lead to drought and flood events involving agricultural areas, especially rice fields. Muda Agricultural Development Authority (MADA) is the largest rice growing area among the 10 granary areas in Malaysia and has faced floods and droughts in the past due to changing climate. Changes in rainfall and temperature patter affect rice yield. Therefore, trend analysis is important to identify changes in temperature and rainfall patterns as it gives an initial overview for further analysis. Six locations across the MADA area were selected based on the availability of meteorological station (MetMalaysia) data. Historical data (1991 to 2020) collected from MetMalaysia and future climate projection by multi-model ensemble of climate model from CMIP5 (CNRM-CM5, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M and IPSL-CM5A-LR) have been analyzed using Mann-Kendall test to detect the time series trend, together with standardized precipitation anomaly, rainfall anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and temperature anomaly. Future projection data were analyzed based on 3 different periods; early century (2020 – 2046), middle century (2047 – 2073) and late-century (2074 – 2099). Results indicate that the MADA area does encounter extremely wet and dry conditions, leading to drought and flood events in the past. The Mann-Kendall (MK) trend analysis test discovered a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) in annual rainfall (z = 0.40; s = 15.12) and temperature (z = 0.61; s = 0.04) during the historical period. Similarly, for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, a significant increasing trend (p < 0.05) was found for rainfall (RCP 4.5: z = 0.15; s = 2.55; RCP 8.5: z = 0.41; s = 8.05;) and temperature (RCP 4.5: z = 0.84; s = 0.02; RCP 8.5: z = 0.94; s = 0.05). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.6 °C in early century, 2.0 °C in the middle century and 2.4 °C in the late century. In contrast, under RCP 8.5 scenario, the average temperature is projected to increase up to 1.8 °C in the early century, 3.1 °C in the middle century and 4.3 °C in late century. Drought is projected to occur in 2038 and 2043 (early century); 2052 and 2069 (middle century); and 2095, 2097 to 2099 (late century) under RCP 4.5 scenario. As for RCP 8.5 scenario, drought is projected to occur in 2021, 2031 and 2034 (early century); and 2069 (middle century). No drought is projected to occur in the late century under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Thus, this information can be used for the analysis of the impact of climate change scenarios on rice growth and yield besides other crops found in MADA area. Additionally, this study, it would be helpful for researchers and decision-makers in developing applicable adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change.Keywords: climate projection, drought, flood, rainfall, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 712550 The Role of Agroforestry Practices in Climate Change Mitigation in Western Kenya
Authors: Humphrey Agevi, Harrison Tsingalia, Richard Onwonga, Shem Kuyah
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Most of the world ecosystems have been affected by the effects of climate change. Efforts have been made to mitigate against climate change effects. While most studies have been done in forest ecosystems and pure plant plantations, trees on farms including agroforestry have only received attention recently. Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural lands make an important contribution to climate change mitigation but are not systematically accounted for in the global carbon budgets. This study sought to: (i) determine tree diversity in different agroforestry practices; (ii) determine tree biomass in different agroforestry practices. Study area was determined according to the Land degradation surveillance framework (LSDF). Two study sites were established. At each of the site, a 5km x 10km block was established on a map using Google maps and satellite images. Way points were then uploaded in a GPS helped locate the blocks on the ground. In each of the blocks, Nine (8) sentinel clusters measuring 1km x 1km were randomized. Randomization was done in a common spreadsheet program and later be downloaded to a Global Positioning System (GPS) so that during surveys the researchers were able to navigate to the sampling points. In each of the sentinel cluster, two farm boundaries were randomly identified for convenience and to avoid bias. This led to 16 farms in Kakamega South and 16 farms in Kakamega North totalling to 32 farms in Kakamega Site. Species diversity was determined using Shannon wiener index. Tree biomass was determined using allometric equation. Two agroforestry practices were found; homegarden and hedgerow. Species diversity ranged from 0.25-2.7 with a mean of 1.8 ± 0.10. Species diversity in homegarden ranged from 1-2.7 with a mean of 1.98± 0.14. Hedgerow species diversity ranged from 0.25-2.52 with a mean of 1.74± 0.11. Total Aboveground Biomass (AGB) determined was 13.96±0.37 Mgha-1. Homegarden with the highest abundance of trees had higher above ground biomass (AGB) compared to hedgerow agroforestry. This study is timely as carbon budgets in the agroforestry can be incorporated in the global carbon budgets and improve the accuracy of national reporting of greenhouse gases.Keywords: agroforestry, allometric equations, biomass, climate change
Procedia PDF Downloads 3522549 Indeterminacy: An Urban Design Tool to Measure Resilience to Climate Change, a Caribbean Case Study
Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar
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How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form
Procedia PDF Downloads 3612548 Impact of Climate Change on Forest Ecosystem Services: In situ Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of Forest Resources in Tropical Forests
Authors: Rajendra Kumar Pandey
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Forest genetic resources not only represent regional biodiversity but also have immense value as the wealth for securing livelihood of poor people. These are vulnerable to ecological due to depletion/deforestation and /or impact of climate change. These resources of various plant categories are vulnerable on the floor of natural tropical forests, and leading to the threat on the growth and development of future forests. More than 170 species, including NTFPs, are in critical condition for their survival in natural tropical forests of Central India. Forest degradation, commensurate with biodiversity loss, is now pervasive, disproportionately affecting the rural poor who directly depend on forests for their subsistence. Looking ahead the interaction between forest and water, soil, precipitation, climate change, etc. and its impact on biodiversity of tropical forests, it is inevitable to develop co-operation policies and programmes to address new emerging realities. Forests ecosystem also known as the 'wealth of poor' providing goods and ecosystem services on a sustainable basis, are now recognized as a stepping stone to move poor people beyond subsistence. Poverty alleviation is the prime objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, environmental sustainability including other MDGs, is essential to ensure successful elimination of poverty and well being of human society. Loss and degradation of ecosystem are the most serious threats to achieving development goals worldwide. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) was an attempt to identify provisioning and regulating cultural and supporting ecosystem services to provide livelihood security of human beings. Climate change may have a substantial impact on ecological structure and function of forests, provisioning, regulations and management of resources which can affect sustainable flow of ecosystem services. To overcome these limitations, policy guidelines with respect to planning and consistent research strategy need to be framed for conservation and sustainable development of forest genetic resources.Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem services, sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2912547 An Appraisal of Mitigation and Adaptation Measures under Paris Agreement 2015: Developing Nations' Pie
Authors: Olubisi Friday Oluduro
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The Paris Agreement 2015, the result of negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), after Kyoto Protocol expiration, sets a long-term goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and of pursuing efforts to limiting this temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. An advancement on the erstwhile Kyoto Protocol which sets commitments to only a limited number of Parties to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, it includes the goal to increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and to make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHGs emissions. For it achieve these goals, the Agreement requires all Parties to undertake efforts towards reaching global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and towards achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of the twenty-first century. In addition to climate change mitigation, the Agreement aims at enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing the vulnerability to climate change in different parts of the world. It acknowledges the importance of addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse of climate change. The Agreement also contains comprehensive provisions on support to be provided to developing countries, which includes finance, technology transfer and capacity building. To ensure that such supports and actions are transparent, the Agreement contains a number reporting provisions, requiring parties to choose the efforts and measures that mostly suit them (Nationally Determined Contributions), providing for a mechanism of assessing progress and increasing global ambition over time by a regular global stocktake. Despite the somewhat global look of the Agreement, it has been fraught with manifold limitations threatening its very existential capability to produce any meaningful result. Considering these obvious limitations some of which were the very cause of the failure of its predecessor—the Kyoto Protocol—such as the non-participation of the United States, non-payment of funds into the various coffers for appropriate strategic purposes, among others. These have left the developing countries largely threatened eve the more, being more vulnerable than the developed countries, which are really responsible for the climate change scourge. The paper seeks to examine the mitigation and adaptation measures under the Paris Agreement 2015, appraise the present situation since the Agreement was concluded and ascertain whether the developing countries have been better or worse off since the Agreement was concluded, and examine why and how, while projecting a way forward in the present circumstance. It would conclude with recommendations towards ameliorating the situation.Keywords: mitigation, adaptation, climate change, Paris agreement 2015, framework
Procedia PDF Downloads 1542546 Predictions of Dynamic Behaviors for Gas Foil Bearings Operating at Steady-State Based on Multi-Physics Coupling Computer Aided Engineering Simulations
Authors: Tai Yuan Yu, Pei-Jen Wang
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A simulation scheme of rotational motions for predictions of bump-type gas foil bearings operating at steady-state is proposed; and, the scheme is based on multi-physics coupling computer aided engineering packages modularized with computational fluid dynamic model and structure elasticity model to numerically solve the dynamic equation of motions of a hydrodynamic loaded shaft supported by an elastic bump foil. The bump foil is assumed to be modelled as infinite number of Hookean springs mounted on stiff wall. Hence, the top foil stiffness is constant on the periphery of the bearing housing. The hydrodynamic pressure generated by the air film lubrication transfers to the top foil and induces elastic deformation needed to be solved by a finite element method program, whereas the pressure profile applied on the top foil must be solved by a finite element method program based on Reynolds Equation in lubrication theory. As a result, the equation of motions for the bearing shaft are iteratively solved via coupling of the two finite element method programs simultaneously. In conclusion, the two-dimensional center trajectory of the shaft plus the deformation map on top foil at constant rotational speed are calculated for comparisons with the experimental results.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, fluid structure interaction multi-physics simulations, gas foil bearing, load capacity
Procedia PDF Downloads 1542545 Examining the Links between Fish Behaviour and Physiology for Resilience in the Anthropocene
Authors: Lauren A. Bailey, Amber R. Childs, Nicola C. James, Murray I. Duncan, Alexander Winkler, Warren M. Potts
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Changes in behaviour and physiology are the most important responses of marine life to anthropogenic impacts such as climate change and over-fishing. Behavioural changes (such as a shift in distribution or changes in phenology) can ensure that a species remains in an environment suited for its optimal physiological performance. However, if marine life is unable to shift their distribution, they are reliant on physiological adaptation (either by broadening their metabolic curves to tolerate a range of stressors or by shifting their metabolic curves to maximize their performance at extreme stressors). However, since there are links between fish physiology and behaviour, changes to either of these traits may have reciprocal interactions. This paper reviews the current knowledge of the links between the behaviour and physiology of fishes, discusses these in the context of exploitation and climate change, and makes recommendations for future research needs. The review revealed that our understanding of the links between fish behaviour and physiology is rudimentary. However, both are hypothesized to be linked to stress responses along the hypothalamic pituitary axis. The link between physiological capacity and behaviour is particularly important as both determine the response of an individual to a changing climate and are under selection by fisheries. While it appears that all types of capture fisheries are likely to reduce the adaptive potential of fished populations to climate stressors, angling, which is primarily associated with recreational fishing, may induce fission of natural populations by removing individuals with bold behavioural traits and potentially the physiological traits required to facilitate behavioural change. Future research should focus on assessing how the links between physiological capacity and behaviour influence catchability, the response to climate change drivers, and post-release recovery. The plasticity of phenotypic traits should be examined under a range of stressors of differing intensity in several species and life history stages. Future studies should also assess plasticity (fission or fusion) in the phenotypic structuring of social hierarchy and how this influences habitat selection. Ultimately, to fully understand how physiology is influenced by the selective processes driven by fisheries, long-term monitoring of the physiological and behavioural structure of fished populations, their fitness, and catch rates are required.Keywords: climate change, metabolic shifts, over-fishing, phenotypic plasticity, stress response
Procedia PDF Downloads 1122544 Monitoring Future Climate Changes Pattern over Major Cities in Ghana Using Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest Modeling
Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li
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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM
Procedia PDF Downloads 1962543 Spatio-Temporal Variability and Trends in Frost-Free Season Parameters in Finland: Influence of Climate Teleconnections
Authors: Masoud Irannezhad, Sirpa Rasmus, Saghar Ahmadian, Deliang Chen, Bjorn Klove
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Variability and changes in thermal conditions play a crucial role in functioning of human society, particularly over cold climate regions like Finland. Accordingly, the frost-free season (FFS) parameters in terms of start (FFSS), end (FFSE) and length (FFSL) have substantial effects not only on natural environment (e.g. flora and fauna), but also on human requirements (e.g. agriculture, forestry and energy generation). Applying the 0°C threshold of minimum temperature (Tmin), the FFS was defined as the period between the last spring frost as FFSS and the first fall frost as FFSE. For this study, gridded (10 x 10 km2) daily minimum temperature datasets throughout Finland during 1961-2011 was used to investigate recent spatio-temporal variations and trends in frost-free season (FFS) parameters and their relationships with the well-known large-scale climate teleconnections (CTs). The FFS in Finland naturally increases from north (~60 days) to south (~190 days), in association with earlier FFSS (~24 April) and later FFSE (~30 October). Statistically significant (p<0.05) trends in FFSL were all positive (increasing) ranged between 0 and 13.5 (days/decade) and mainly observed in the east, upper west, centre and upper north of Finland. Such lengthening trends in FFS were attributable to both earlier FFSS and later FFSE mostly over central and upper northern Finland, while only to later FFSE in eastern and upper western parts. Variations in both FFSL and FFSS were significantly associated with the Polar (POL) pattern over northern Finland, while with the East Atlantic (EA) pattern over eastern and upper western areas. However, the POL and Scandinavia (SCA) patterns were most influential CTs for FFSE variability over northern Finland.Keywords: climate teleconnections, Finland, frost-free season, trend analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 1972542 The Future of Adventure Tourism in a Warmer World: An Exploratory Study of Mountain Guides’ Perception of Environmental Change in Canada
Authors: Brooklyn Rushton, Michelle Rutty, Natalie Knowles, Daniel Scott
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As people are increasingly on the search for extraordinary experiences and connections with nature, adventure tourism is experiencing significant growth and providing tourists with life-changing experiences. Unlike built attraction-based tourism, adventure tourism relies entirely on natural heritage, which leaves communities dependent on adventure tourism extremely vulnerable to environmental and climatic changes. A growing body of evidence suggests that global climate change will influence the future of adventure tourism and mountain outdoor recreation opportunities on a global scale. Across Canada, more specifically, climate change is broadly anticipated to present risks for winter-snow sports, while opportunities are anticipated to arise for green season activities. These broad seasonal shifts do not account for the indirect impacts of climate change on adventure tourism, such as the cost of adaptation or the increase of natural hazards and the associated likelihood of accidents. While some research has examined the impact of climate change on natural environments that adventure tourism relies on, a very small body of research has specifically focused on guides’ perspectives or included hard adventure tourism activities. The guiding industry is unique, as guides are trained through an elegant blend of art and science to make decisions based on experience, observation, and intuition. While quantitative research can monitor change in natural environments, guides local knowledge can provide eye-witness accounts and outline what environmental changes mean for the future sustainability of adventure tourism. This research will capture the extensive knowledge of mountain guides to better understand the implications of climate change for mountain adventure and potential adaptive responses for the adventure tourism industry. This study uses a structured online survey with open and close-ended questions that will be administered using Qualtrics (an online survey platform). This survey is disseminated to current members of the Association of Canadian Mountain Guides (ACMG). Participation in this study will be exclusive to members of the ACMG operating in the outdoor guiding streams. The 25 survey questions are organized into four sections: demographic and professional operation (9 questions), physical change (4 questions), climate change perception (6 questions), and climate change adaptation (6 questions). How mountain guides perceive and respond to climate change is important knowledge for the future of the expanding adventure tourism industry. Results from this study are expected to provide important information to mountain destinations on climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Expected results of this study include guides insight into: (1) experience-safety relevant observed physical changes in guided regions (i.e. glacial coverage, permafrost coverage, precipitation, temperature, and slope instability) (2) changes in hazards within the guiding environment (i.e. avalanches, rockfall, icefall, forest fires, flooding, and extreme weather events), (3) existing and potential adaptation strategies, and (4) key information and other barriers for adaptation. By gaining insight from the knowledge of mountain guides, this research can help the tourism industry at large understand climate risk and create adaptation strategies to ensure the resiliency of the adventure tourism industry.Keywords: adventure tourism, climate change, environmental change, mountain hazards
Procedia PDF Downloads 1882541 Mathematical Knowledge a Prerequisite for Science Education Courses in Tertiary Institution
Authors: Esther Yemisi Akinjiola
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Mathematics has been regarded as the backbone of science and technological development, without which no nation can achieve any sustainable growth and development. Mathematics is a useful tool to simplify science by quantification of phenomena; hence physics and chemistry cannot be done without Calculus and Statistics. Mathematics is used in physical science to calculate the measurement of objects and their characteristics, as well as to show the relationship between different functions and properties. Mathematics is the building block for everything in our daily lives, including the use of mobile devices, architecture design, ancient arts, engineering sports, and. among others. Therefore the study of Mathematics is made compulsory at primary, basic, and secondary school levels. Thus, this paper discusses the concepts of Mathematics, science, and their relationships. Also, it discusses Mathematics contents needed to study science-oriented courses such as physics education, chemistry education, and biology education in the tertiary institution. The paper concluded that without adequate knowledge of Mathematics, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for science education students to cope in their field of study.Keywords: mathematical knowledge, prerequisite, science education, tertiary institution
Procedia PDF Downloads 832540 Evaluation of NASA POWER and CRU Precipitation and Temperature Datasets over a Desert-prone Yobe River Basin: An Investigation of the Impact of Drought in the North-East Arid Zone of Nigeria
Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi
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The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 782539 Potential Impacts of Warming Climate on Contributions of Runoff Components from Two Catchments of Upper Indus Basin, Karakoram, Pakistan
Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano
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The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000 meters above sea level where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow-ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential, water resources management and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability in these catchments.Keywords: future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management
Procedia PDF Downloads 3412538 Assessment and Adaptation Strategy of Climate Change to Water Quality in the Erren River and Its Impact to Health
Authors: Pei-Chih Wu, Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Hsien-Chang Wang
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The impact of climate change to health has always been well documented. Amongst them, water-borne infectious diseases, chronic adverse effects or cancer risks due to chemical contamination in flooding or drought events are especially important in river basin. This study therefore utilizes GIS and different models to integrate demographic, land use, disaster prevention, social-economic factors, and human health assessment in the Erren River basin. Therefore, through the collecting of climatic, demographic, health surveillance, water quality and other water monitoring data, potential risks associated with the Erren River Basin are established and to understand human exposure and vulnerability in response to climate extremes. This study assesses the temporal and spatial patterns of melioidosis (2000-2015) and various cancer incidents in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities. The next step is to analyze the spatial association between diseases incidences, climatic factors, land uses, and other demographic factors by using ArcMap and GeoDa. The study results show that amongst all melioidosis cases in Taiwan, 24% cases (115) residence occurred in the Erren River basin. The relationship between the cases and in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities are associated with population density, aging indicator, and residence in Erren River basin. Risks from flooding due to heavy rainfall and fish farms in spatial lag regression are also related. Through liver cancer, the preliminary analysis in temporal and spatial pattern shows an increases pattern in annual incidence without clusters in Erren River basin. Further analysis of potential cancers connected to heavy metal contamination from water pollution in Erren River is established. The final step is to develop an assessment tool for human exposure from water contamination and vulnerability in response to climate extremes for the second year.Keywords: climate change, health impact, health adaptation, Erren River Basin
Procedia PDF Downloads 2992537 Performances of the Double-Crystal Setup at CERN SPS Accelerator for Physics beyond Colliders Experiments
Authors: Andrii Natochii
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We are currently presenting the recent results from the CERN accelerator facilities obtained in the frame of the UA9 Collaboration. The UA9 experiment investigates how a tiny silicon bent crystal (few millimeters long) can be used for various high-energy physics applications. Due to the huge electrostatic field (tens of GV/cm) between crystalline planes, there is a probability for charged particles, impinging the crystal, to be trapped in the channeling regime. It gives a possibility to steer a high intensity and momentum beam by bending the crystal: channeled particles will follow the crystal curvature and deflect on the certain angle (from tens microradians for LHC to few milliradians for SPS energy ranges). The measurements at SPS, performed in 2017 and 2018, confirmed that the protons deflected by the first crystal, inserted in the primary beam halo, can be caught and channeled by the second crystal. In this configuration, we measure the single pass deflection efficiency of the second crystal and prove our opportunity to perform the fixed target experiment at SPS accelerator (LHC in the future).Keywords: channeling, double-crystal setup, fixed target experiment, Timepix detector
Procedia PDF Downloads 1462536 Resilient Design Solutions for Megathermal Climates of the Global South
Authors: Bobuchi Ken-Opurum
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The impacts of climate change on urban settlements is growing. In the global south, communities are even more vulnerable and suffer there is an increased vulnerability from due to climate change disasters such as flooding and high temperatures. This is primarily due to high intensity rainfall, low-lying coasts, inadequate infrastructure, and limited resources. According to the Emergency Events Database, floods were the leading cause of disaster -based deaths in the global south between 2006 and 2015. This includes deaths from heat stress related health outcomes. Adapting to climate vulnerabilities is paramount in reducing the significant redevelopment costs from climate disasters. Governments and urban planners provide top-down approaches such as evacuation, and disaster and emergency communication. While they address infrastructure and public services, they are not always able to address the immediate and critical day to day needs of poor and vulnerable populations. There is growing evidence that some bottom-up strategies and grassroots initiatives of self-build housing such as in urban informal settlements are successful in coping and adapting to hydroclimatic impacts. However, these research findings are not consolidated and the evaluation of the resilience outcomes of the bottom-up strategies are limited. Using self-build housing as a model for sustainable and resilient urban planning, this research aimed to consolidate the flood and heat stress resilient design solutions, analyze the effectiveness of these solutions, and develop guidelines and methods for adopting these design solutions into mainstream housing in megathermal climates. The methodological approach comprised of analyses of over 40 ethnographic based peer reviewed literature, white papers, and reports between the years 2000 and 2019 to identify coping strategies and grassroots initiatives that have been applied by occupants and communities of the global south. The results of the research provide a consolidated source and prioritized list of the best bottom-up strategies for communities in megathermal climates to improve the lives of people in some of the most vulnerable places in the world.Keywords: resilient, design, megathermal, climate change
Procedia PDF Downloads 1212535 Integration of Agroforestry Shrub for Diversification and Improved Smallholder Production: A Case of Cajanus cajan-Zea Mays (Pigeonpea-Maize) Production in Ghana
Authors: F. O. Danquah, F. Frimpong, E. Owusu Danquah, T. Frimpong, J. Adu, S. K. Amposah, P. Amankwaa-Yeboah, N. E. Amengor
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In the face of global concerns such as population increase, climate change, and limited natural resources, sustainable agriculture practices are critical for ensuring food security and environmental stewardship. The study was conducted in the Forest zones of Ghana during the major and minor seasons of 2023 cropping seasons to evaluate maize yield productivity improvement and profitability of integrating Cajanus cajan (pigeonpea) into a maize production system described as a pigeonpea-maize cropping system. This is towards an integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) with a legume shrub pigeonpea for sustainable maize production while improving smallholder farmers' resilience to climate change. A split-plot design with maize-pigeonpea (Pigeonpea-Maize intercrop – MPP and No pigeonpea/ Sole maize – NPP) and inorganic fertilizer rate (250 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 250 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Full rate (FR), 125 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 125 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Half rate (HR) and no inorganic fertilizer (NF) as control) was used as the main plot and subplot treatments respectively. The results indicated a significant interaction of the pigeonpea-maize cropping system and inorganic fertilizer rate on the growth and yield of the maize with better and similar maize productivity when HR and FR were used with pigeonpea biomass. Thus, the integration of pigeonpea and its biomass would result in the reduction of recommended fertiliser rate to half. This would improve farmers’ income and profitability for sustainable maize production in the face of climate change.Keywords: agroforestry tree, climate change, integrated soil fertility management, resource use efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 492534 Climate Change Impact on Mortality from Cardiovascular Diseases: Case Study of Bucharest, Romania
Authors: Zenaida Chitu, Roxana Bojariu, Liliana Velea, Roxana Burcea
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A number of studies show that extreme air temperature affects mortality related to cardiovascular diseases, particularly among elderly people. In Romania, the summer thermal discomfort expressed by Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is highest in the Southern part of the country, where Bucharest, the largest Romanian urban agglomeration, is also located. The urban characteristics such as high building density and reduced green areas enhance the increase of the air temperature during summer. In Bucharest, as in many other large cities, the effect of heat urban island is present and determines an increase of air temperature compared to surrounding areas. This increase is particularly important during heat wave periods in summer. In this context, the researchers performed a temperature-mortality analysis based on daily deaths related to cardiovascular diseases, recorded between 2010 and 2019 in Bucharest. The temperature-mortality relationship was modeled by applying distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) that includes a bi-dimensional cross-basis function and flexible natural cubic spline functions with three internal knots in the 10th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the temperature distribution, for modelling both exposure-response and lagged-response dimensions. Firstly, this study applied this analysis for the present climate. Extrapolation of the exposure-response associations beyond the observed data allowed us to estimate future effects on mortality due to temperature changes under climate change scenarios and specific assumptions. We used future projections of air temperature from five numerical experiments with regional climate models included in the EURO-CORDEX initiative under the relatively moderate (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) concentration scenarios. The results of this analysis show for RCP 8.5 an ensemble-averaged increase with 6.1% of heat-attributable mortality fraction in future in comparison with present climate (2090-2100 vs. 2010-219), corresponding to an increase of 640 deaths/year, while mortality fraction due to the cold conditions will be reduced by 2.76%, corresponding to a decrease by 288 deaths/year. When mortality data is stratified according to the age, the ensemble-averaged increase of heat-attributable mortality fraction for elderly people (> 75 years) in the future is even higher (6.5 %). These findings reveal the necessity to carefully plan urban development in Bucharest to face the public health challenges raised by the climate change. Paper Details: This work is financed by the project URCLIM which is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by Ministry of Environment, Romania with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462). A part of this work performed by one of the authors has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme from the project EXHAUSTION under grant agreement No 820655.Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, climate change, extreme air temperature, mortality
Procedia PDF Downloads 1212533 Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Management in the Mahi River Basin of India
Authors: Y. B. Sharma, K. B. Biswas
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This research project examines a 5000 cal yr BP sediment core record to reveal the consequences of human impact and climate variability on the tropical dry forests of the Mahi river basin, western India. To date there has been little research to assess the impact of climate variability and human impact on the vegetation dynamics of this region. There has also been little work to link changes in vegetation cover to documented changes in the basin hydrology over the past 100 years – although it is assumed that the two are closely linked. The key objective of this research project therefore is to understand the driving mechanisms responsible for the abrupt changes in the Mahi river basin as detailed in historical documentation and its impact on water resource management. The Mahi river basin is located in western India (22° 11’-24° 35’ N 72° 46’-74° 52’ E). Mahi river arises in the Malwa Plateau, Madhya Pradesh near Moripara and flows through the uplands and alluvial plain of Rajasthan and Gujarat provinces before draining into the Gulf of Cambay. Palaeoecological procedures (sedimentology, geochemical analysis, C&N isotopes and fossil pollen evidences) have been applied on sedimentary sequences collected from lakes in the Mahi basin. These techniques then facilitate to reconstruct the soil erosion, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes and climatic variability over the last 5000 years. Historical documentation detailing changes in demography, climate and landscape use over the past 100 years in this region will also be collated to compare with the most recent palaeoecological records. The results of the research work provide a detailed record of vegetation change, soil erosion, changes in aridity, and rainfall patterns in the region over the past 5000 years. This research therefore aims to determine the drivers of change and natural variability in the basin. Such information is essential for its current and future management including restoration.Keywords: human impact, climate variability, vegetation cover, hydrology, water resource management, Mahi river basin, sedimentology, geochemistry, fossil pollen, nutrient cycling, vegetation changes, palaeoecology, aridity, rainfall, drivers of change
Procedia PDF Downloads 3662532 Climate Change and Its Impacts: The Case of Coastal Fishing Communities of the Meghna River in South-Central Bangladesh
Authors: Md. Royhanur Islam, Thomas Cansse, Md. Sahidul Islam, Atiqur Rahman Sunny
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The geographical location of Bangladesh makes it one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. Climate-induced phenomena mainly affect the south-central region of Bangladesh (Laxmipur district) where they have begun to occur more frequently. The aim of the study was to identify the hydro-climatic factors that lead to weather-related disasters in the coastal areas and analyse the consequences of these factors on coastal livelihoods, with possible adaptation options using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) tools. The present study showed several disasters such as land erosion, depressions and cyclones, coastal flooding, storm surge, and precipitation. The frequency of these disasters is of a noticeable rate. Surveys have also discovered that land erosion is ongoing. Tidal water is being introduced directly into the mainland, and as a result of the salt intrusion, production capacity is declining. The coastal belt is an important area for fishing activities, but due to changed fishing times and a lack of Alternative Income Generating Activities (AIGAs), people have been forced to search for alternative livelihood options by taking both short-term and long-term adaptation options. Therefore, in order to increase awareness and minimize the losses, vulnerable communities must be fully incorporated into disaster response strategies. The government as well as national and international donor organizations should come forward and resolve the present situation of these vulnerable groups since otherwise, they will have to endure endless and miserable suffering due to the effects of climate change ahead in their lives.Keywords: adaptation, community, fishery development, livelihood
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