Search results for: formative evaluation

Authors: Jessica Neri, Elena Faccio

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In Europe, except for Denmark and Malta, the legal gender change and the stages of the possible process of gender transition are bound to the diagnosis of a gender identity disorder. The requirement of the evaluation of a mental disorder might have many implications on trans people’s self-representations, interpersonal relations in different social contexts and the therapeutic relations with clinicians during the transition. Psychopathological language may contribute to define the individual’s reality from normative presuppositions with value implications related to the dominant cultural principles. In an effort to mark the boundaries between sanity and pathology, it concurs to the definition of the management procedures of the constructed diversities and deviances, legitimizing the operational practices of particular professional figures. The aim of this research concerns the analysis of the diagnostic category of gender dysphoria contained in the last edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. In particular, this study focuses on the relationship between the implicit and explicit assumptions related to the expressions of gender non-conformity, that sustain the language and the criteria characterizing the Manual, and the possible implications on people’s narratives of transition. In order to achieve this objective two main research methods were used: historical reconstruction of the diagnostic category in the different versions of the Manual and content analysis of that category in the present version. From the historical analysis, in the medical and psychiatric field gender non-conformity has been predominantly explicated by naturalistic perspectives, naming it ‘transsexualism’ and collocating it in the category of gender identity disorder. Currently, pathological judged experiences are represented by gender dysphoria, described in the DSM-5 as the distress that may accompany the incongruence between one's experienced or expressed gender and one's assigned gender, specifying that there must be ‘evidence’ of this. Implicit theories about gender binary, parallelism between gender identity, sex and sexuality and the understanding of the mental health and the subject’s agency as subordinated to the expert knowledge, can be found in the process of designation of the category. A lack of awareness of the historical, social and political aspects connected to the cultural and normative dimensions at the basis of these implicit theories, can be noticed and data given by culture and data given by supposed -biological or psychological- nature, are often confused. This reductionist interpretation of gender and its presumed diversities legitimize the clinician to assume the role of searching and orienting, in a correctional perspective, the biographical elements that correspond to him specific expectations, with no space for other possibilities and identity configurations for people in transition. This research may contribute to the current critical debate about the epistemological foundation of the psychodiagnosis, emphasizing the pragmatic effects on the individuals and on the psychological practice in its wider social context. This work also permits to underline the risks due to the lack of awareness of the processes of social construction of the diagnostic system and its essential role of defence of the values that hold up the symbolic universe of reference.

Keywords: diagnosis, gender dysphoria, narratives, social constructionism

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Authors: Gabriel Malgaresi, Sara Borazjani, Hadi Madani, Pavel Bedrikovetsky

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Suspension-Colloidal flow in porous media occurs in numerous engineering fields, such as industrial water treatment, the disposal of industrial wastes into aquifers with the propagation of contaminants and low salinity water injection into petroleum reservoirs. The main effects are particle mobilization and captured by the porous rock, which can cause pore plugging and permeability reduction which is known as formation damage. Various factors such as fluid salinity, pH, temperature, and rock properties affect particle detachment. Formation damage is unfavorable specifically near injection and production wells. One way to control formation damage is pre-treatment of the rock with nanoparticles. Adsorption of nanoparticles on fines and rock surfaces alters zeta-potential of the surfaces and enhances the attachment force between the rock and fine particles. The main objective of this study is to develop a two-stage mathematical model for (1) flow and adsorption of nanoparticles on the rock in the pre-treatment stage and (2) fines migration and permeability reduction during the water production after the pre-treatment. The model accounts for adsorption and desorption of nanoparticles, fines migration, and kinetics of particle capture. The system of equations allows for the exact solution. The non-self-similar wave-interaction problem was solved by the Method of Characteristics. The analytical model is new in two ways: First, it accounts for the specific boundary and initial condition describing the injection of nanoparticle and production from the pre-treated porous media; second, it contains the effect of nanoparticle sorption hysteresis. The derived analytical model contains explicit formulae for the concentration fronts along with pressure drop. The solution is used to determine the optimal injection concentration of nanoparticle to avoid formation damage. The mathematical model was validated via an innovative laboratory program. The laboratory study includes two sets of core-flood experiments: (1) production of water without nanoparticle pre-treatment; (2) pre-treatment of a similar core with nanoparticles followed by water production. Positively-charged Alumina nanoparticles with the average particle size of 100 nm were used for the rock pre-treatment. The core was saturated with the nanoparticles and then flushed with low salinity water; pressure drop across the core and the outlet fine concentration was monitored and used for model validation. The results of the analytical modeling showed a significant reduction in the fine outlet concentration and formation damage. This observation was in great agreement with the results of core-flood data. The exact solution accurately describes fines particle breakthroughs and evaluates the positive effect of nanoparticles in formation damage. We show that the adsorbed concentration of nanoparticle highly affects the permeability of the porous media. For the laboratory case presented, the reduction of permeability after 1 PVI production in the pre-treated scenario is 50% lower than the reference case. The main outcome of this study is to provide a validated mathematical model to evaluate the effect of nanoparticles on formation damage.

Keywords: nano-particles, formation damage, permeability, fines migration

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Authors: Prescilla Lambert, Christophe Roos, Mounim Lebrini

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For several years, the Caribbean islands and West Africa have had to deal with the massive arrival of the brown seaweed Sargassum. Overall, this macroalgae, which constitutes a habitat for a great diversity of marine organisms, is also an additional stress factor for the marine environment (e.g., coral reefs). In addition, the accumulation followed by the significant decomposition of the Sargassum spp. biomass on the coast leads to the release of toxic gases (H₂S and NH₃), which calls into question the functioning of the economic, health and tourist life of the island and the other interested territories. Originally, these algae are formed by the eutrophication of the oceans accentuated by global warming. Unfortunately, scientists predict a significant recurrence of these Sargassum strandings for years to come. It is therefore more than necessary to find solutions by putting in place a sustainable management plan for this phenomenon. Martinique, a small island in the Caribbean arc, is one of the many areas impacted by Sargassum seaweed strandings. Since 2011, there has been a constant increase in the degradation of the materials present in this region, largely due to toxic/corrosive gases released by the algae decomposition. In order to protect the structures and the vulnerable building materials while limiting the use of synthetic/petroleum based molecules as much as possible, research is being conducted on molecules of natural origin. Thus, thanks to the chemical composition, which comprise molecules with interesting properties, algae such as Sargassum could potentially help to solve many issues. Therefore, this study focuses on the green extraction and characterization of molecules from the species Sargassum fluitans and Sargassum natans present in Martinique. The secondary metabolites found in these extracts showed variability in yield rates due to local climatic conditions. The tests carried out shed light on the anticorrosive and antibacterial potential of the algae. These extracts can thus be described as natural inhibitors. The effect of variation in inhibitor concentrations was tested in electrochemistry using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and polarization curves. The analysis of electrochemical results obtained by direct immersion in the extracts and self-assembled molecular layers (SAMs) for Sargassum fluitans III, Sargassum natans I and VIII species was conclusive in acid and alkaline environments. The excellent results obtained reveal an inhibitory efficacy of 88% at 50mg/L for the crude extract of Sargassum fluitans III and efficacies greater than 97% for the chemical families of Sargassum fluitans III. Similarly, microbiological tests also suggest a bactericidal character. Results for Sargassum fluitans III crude extract show a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 0.005 mg/mL on Gram-negative bacteria and a MIC greater than 0.6 mg/mL on Gram-positive bacteria. These results make it possible to consider the management of local and international issues while valuing a biomass rich in biodegradable molecules. The next step in this study will therefore be the evaluation of the toxicity of Sargassum spp..

Keywords: Sargassum, secondary metabolites, anticorrosive, antibacterial, natural inhibitors

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Authors: Riadh Zorgati, Thomas Triboulet

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In quite diverse application areas such as astronomy, medical imaging, geophysics or nondestructive evaluation, many problems related to calibration, fitting or estimation of a large number of input parameters of a model from a small amount of output noisy data, can be cast as inverse problems. Due to noisy data corruption, insufficient data and model errors, most inverse problems are ill-posed in a Hadamard sense, i.e. existence, uniqueness and stability of the solution are not guaranteed. A wide class of inverse problems in physics relates to the Fredholm equation of the first kind. The ill-posedness of such inverse problem results, after discretization, in a very ill-conditioned linear system of equations, the condition number of the associated matrix can typically range from 109 to 1018. This condition number plays the role of an amplifier of uncertainties on data during inversion and then, renders the inverse problem difficult to handle numerically. Similar problems appear in other areas such as numerical optimization when using interior points algorithms for solving linear programs leads to face ill-conditioned systems of linear equations. Devising efficient solution approaches for such system of equations is therefore of great practical interest. Efficient iterative algorithms are proposed for solving a system of linear equations. The approach is based on a preconditioning of the initial matrix of the system with an approximation of a generalized inverse leading to a stochastic preconditioned matrix. This approach, valid for non-negative matrices, is first extended to hermitian, semi-definite positive matrices and then generalized to any complex rectangular matrices. The main results obtained are as follows: 1) We are able to build a generalized inverse of any complex rectangular matrix which satisfies the convergence condition requested in iterative algorithms for solving a system of linear equations. This completes the (short) list of generalized inverse having this property, after Kaczmarz and Cimmino matrices. Theoretical results on both the characterization of the type of generalized inverse obtained and the convergence are derived. 2) Thanks to its properties, this matrix can be efficiently used in different solving schemes as Richardson-Tanabe or preconditioned conjugate gradients. 3) By using Lp norms, we propose generalized Kaczmarz’s type matrices. We also show how Cimmino's matrix can be considered as a particular case consisting in choosing the Euclidian norm in an asymmetrical structure. 4) Regarding numerical results obtained on some pathological well-known test-cases (Hilbert, Nakasaka, …), some of the proposed algorithms are empirically shown to be more efficient on ill-conditioned problems and more robust to error propagation than the known classical techniques we have tested (Gauss, Moore-Penrose inverse, minimum residue, conjugate gradients, Kaczmarz, Cimmino). We end on a very early prospective application of our approach based on stochastic matrices aiming at computing some parameters (such as the extreme values, the mean, the variance, …) of the solution of a linear system prior to its resolution. Such an approach, if it were to be efficient, would be a source of information on the solution of a system of linear equations.

Keywords: conditioning, generalized inverse, linear system, norms, stochastic matrix

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Authors: Hong Mengdi, Li Jianan, Ji Fei, Chen Aiting, Wang Qian

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Objective: To overcome the communication barriers that audiologists encounter during cochlear implant mapping, particularly the challenge of eliciting subjective feedback from recipients regarding electrical stimulation, and to enhance the capabilities of existing technologies, we teamed up with software engineers to design an interactive approach for patient-audiologist communication. This approach employs a tablet (PAD) as the interface for a communication and feedback system between patients and audiologists during the mapping process, known as the Cochlear Implant Mapping Assistance System. Methods: Capitalizing on the touchscreen functionality of the PAD, the recipients' subjective feedback during cochlear implant mapping is instantly transmitted to the audiologist's mapping computer. The system acts as a platform for auditory assessment instruments, facilitating immediate evaluation of recipients' post-mapping hearing and speech discrimination capabilities. Furthermore, the system is designed to augment the visual reinforcement audiometry (VRA) process. The system consists of six modules, including three testing projects: loudness testing, hearing threshold testing, and loudness balance testing; two assessment projects: warble tone testing and digit speech testing; and one VRA animation project. It also incorporates speech-to-text and text input display functions tailored to accommodate speech communication difficulties in hearing-impaired individuals, with pre-installed common exchange content between audiologists and recipients. Audiologists can input sentences by selecting options. The system supports switching between Chinese and English versions, suitable for audiologists and recipients who use English, facilitating international application of the system. Results: The Cochlear Implant Mapping Assistance System has been in use for over a year in the Auditory Implant Center of the Department of Otology and Neurotology, Medical Center of Otology and Head & Neck Surgery, Chinese PLA General Hospital, with more than 300 recipients using this mapping system. Currently, the system operates stably, with both audiologists and recipients providing positive feedback, indicating a significant improvement over previous methods. It is particularly well-received by pediatric recipients, significantly enhancing the work efficiency of audiologists and improving the feedback efficiency and accuracy of recipients. The system enhances the comprehensibility for cochlear implant recipients, improves wearing comfort and user experience, facilitates cochlear implant auditory mapping, and increases the collection of previously challenging-to-obtain data during the existing assisted mapping process, such as loudness testing data, electrical stimulation testing data, warble tone testing data, loudness balance testing data, digit speech testing data, and visual reinforcement audiometry testing data. Real-time data recording improves the accuracy of assisted mapping. The interface design is meticulously crafted to accommodate patients of varying ages and cognitive abilities, featuring an intuitive design that allows for effortless, guidance-free use by patients.

Keywords: audiologist, subjective feedback, mapping, cochlear implant

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Authors: Irene Kalemaki, Ioanna Garefi

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Social Innovation Education (SIE) is a new educational approach that aims to empower students to take action for a more democratic and sustainable society. Conceptually and pedagogically wise, it is situated at the intersection of Enterprise Education and Citizenship Education as it aspires to i) combine action with activism, ii) personal development with collective efficacy, iii) entrepreneurial mindsets with democratic values and iv) individual competences with collective competences. This paper abstract presents the work of the NEMESIS project, funded by H2020, that aims to design, test and validate the first consolidated approach for embedding Social Innovation Education in schools of primary and secondary education. During the academic year 2018-2019, eight schools from five European countries experimented with different approaches and methodologies to incorporate SIE in their settings. This paper reports briefly on these attempts and discusses the wider educational philosophy underlying these interventions with a particular focus on analyzing the learning outcomes and impact on students. That said, this paper doesn’t only report on the theoretical and practical underpinnings of SIE, but most importantly, it provides evidence on the impact of SIE on students. In terms of methodology, the study took place from September 2018 to July 2019 in eight schools from Greece, Spain, Portugal, France, and the UK involving directly 56 teachers, 1030 students and 69 community stakeholders. Focus groups, semi-structured interviews, classroom observations as well as students' written narratives were used to extract data on the impact of SIE on students. The overall design of the evaluation activities was informed by a realist approach, which enabled us to go beyond “what happened” and towards understanding “why it happened”. Research findings suggested that SIE can benefit students in terms of their emotional, cognitive, behavioral and agentic engagement. Specifically, the emotional engagement of students was increased because through SIE interventions; students voice was heard, valued, and acted upon. This made students feel important to their school, increasing their sense of belonging, confidence and level of autonomy. As regards cognitive engagement, both students and teachers reported positive outcomes as SIE enabled students to take ownership of their ideas to drive their projects forward and thus felt more motivated to perform in class because it felt personal, important and relevant to them. In terms of behavioral engagement, the inclusive environment and the collective relationships that were reinforced through the SIE interventions had a direct positive impact on behaviors among peers. Finally, with regard to agentic engagement, it has been observed that students became very proactive which was connected to the strong sense of ownership and enthusiasm developed during collective efforts to deliver real-life social innovations. Concluding, from a practical and policy point of view these research findings could encourage the inclusion of SIE in schools, while from a research point of view, they could contribute to the scientific discourse providing evidence and clarity on the emergent field of SIE.

Keywords: education, engagement, social innovation, students

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Authors: Dahna Alkahtani, Faryal Suraya, Fadah Alanazi

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Background: Buccal mucosal graft for urethral augmentation has surpassed other grafting options, and is now considered the standard of choice for substitution Urethroplasty. The graft has gained its popularity due to its excellent short and long-term results, easy harvesting as well as its ability in withstanding wet environments. However, although Buccal mucosal grafts are an excellent option, it is not free of complications, potential intraoral complications are bleeding, pain, swelling, injury to the nerve resulting in numbness, lip deviation or retraction. Objectives: The current study aims to evaluate the intraoral complications of buccal mucosa grafts harvested from one cheek, and used in Augmentation Urethroplasty. Methodology: The study was conducted retrospectively using the medical records of patients who underwent open augmentation urethroplasty with a buccal mucosa graft at King Khalid University Hospital, Saudi Arabia. Data collection of demographics included the type of graft used, presence or absence of strictures and its etiological factors. Pre-operative and post-operative evaluations were carried out on the subjects including the medical history, physical examination, uroflowmetry, retrograde urethrography, voiding cystourethrography and urine cultures were also noted. Further, the quality of life and complications of the procedure including the presence or occurrence of bleeding within 3-days post-procedure, the severity of pain, oral swelling after grafting, length of return to normal daily diet, painful surgical site, intake of painkillers, presence or absence of speech disturbance, numbness in the cheeks and lips were documented. Results: Thirty-two male subjects with ages ranging from 15 years to 72 years were included in the current study. Following the procedure, a hundred percent of the subjects returned to their normal daily diet by the sixth postoperative day. Further, the majority of the patients reported experiencing mild pain accounting for 61.3%, and 90.3% of the subjects reported using painkillers to control the pain. Surgical wound Pain was reportedly more common at the perineal site as 48.4% of the subjects experienced it; on the other hand, 41.9% of the patients experienced pain in the oral mucosa. The presence of speech disorders, as assessed through medical history, was found to be present in 3.2% of patients. The presence of numbness in the cheeks and lips was found in 3.2% of patients. Other complications such as parotid duct injury, delayed wound healing, non-healing wound and suture granuloma were rare as 90.3% of the subjects denied experiencing any of them, there were nonetheless reports of parotid duct injury by 6.5% of the patients, and non-healing wound by the 3.2% of patients. Conclusion: Buccal Mucosa Graft in Augmentation Urethroplasty is an ideal source of allograft, although not entirely painless; it is considerably safe with minimal intra-oral complication and undetectable strain on the patients’ quality of life.

Keywords: augmentation, buccal, graft, oral

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Authors: Akeel A. Shah, Tong Zhang

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Computational approaches to learning the properties of materials are commonplace, motivated by the need to screen or design materials for a given application, e.g., semiconductors and energy storage. Experimental approaches can be both time consuming and costly. Unfortunately, computational approaches such as ab-initio electronic structure calculations and classical or ab-initio molecular dynamics are themselves can be too slow for the rapid evaluation of materials, often involving thousands to hundreds of thousands of candidates. Machine learning assisted approaches have been developed to overcome the time limitations of purely physics-based approaches. These approaches, on the other hand, require large volumes of data for training (hundreds of thousands on many standard data sets such as QM7b). This means that they are limited by how quickly such a large data set of physics-based simulations can be established. At high fidelity, such as configuration interaction, composite methods such as G4, and coupled cluster theory, gathering such a large data set can become infeasible, which can compromise the accuracy of the predictions - many applications require high accuracy, for example band structures and energy levels in semiconductor materials and the energetics of charge transfer in energy storage materials. In order to circumvent this problem, multi-fidelity approaches can be adopted, for example the Δ-ML method, which learns a high-fidelity output from a low-fidelity result such as Hartree-Fock or density functional theory (DFT). The general strategy is to learn a map between the low and high fidelity outputs, so that the high-fidelity output is obtained a simple sum of the physics-based low-fidelity and correction, Although this requires a low-fidelity calculation, it typically requires far fewer high-fidelity results to learn the correction map, and furthermore, the low-fidelity result, such as Hartree-Fock or semi-empirical ZINDO, is typically quick to obtain, For high-fidelity outputs the result can be an order of magnitude or more in speed up. In this work, a new multi-fidelity approach is developed, based on a graph convolutional network (GCN) combined with semi-supervised learning. The GCN allows for the material or molecule to be represented as a graph, which is known to improve accuracy, for example SchNet and MEGNET. The graph incorporates information regarding the numbers of, types and properties of atoms; the types of bonds; and bond angles. They key to the accuracy in multi-fidelity methods, however, is the incorporation of low-fidelity output to learn the high-fidelity equivalent, in this case by learning their difference. Semi-supervised learning is employed to allow for different numbers of low and high-fidelity training points, by using an additional GCN-based low-fidelity map to predict high fidelity outputs. It is shown on 4 different data sets that a significant (at least one order of magnitude) increase in accuracy is obtained, using one to two orders of magnitude fewer low and high fidelity training points. One of the data sets is developed in this work, pertaining to 1000 simulations of quinone molecules (up to 24 atoms) at 5 different levels of fidelity, furnishing the energy, dipole moment and HOMO/LUMO.

Keywords: .materials screening, computational materials, machine learning, multi-fidelity, graph convolutional network, semi-supervised learning

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Authors: Ana Rodrigues, Maria Cadilhe, Filipa Ferreira, Claudia Pereira, Marta Santos

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Professional paths must be understood in the multiplicity of their possible configurations. While some actors tend to represent their path as a harmonious succession of positions in the life cycle, most recognize the existence of unforeseen and uncontrollable bifurcations, caused, for example, by a work accident or by going through a period of unemployment. Considering the intensified challenges posed by the ongoing societal changes (e.g., technological and demographic), and looking at the Portuguese context, where the unemployment rate continues to be more evident in certain age groups, like in individuals aged 45 years or over, it is essential to support those adults by providing strategies capable of supporting them during professional transitions, being this a joint responsibility of governments, employers, workers, educational institutions, among others. Concerned about those issues, Porto City Council launched the challenge of designing and implementing a Lifelong Career Guidance program, which was answered with the presentation of a customized conceptual and operational model: groWing|Lifelong Career Guidance. A pilot project targeting working-age adults (35 or older) who were unemployed was carried out, aiming to support them to reconstruct their professional paths, through the recovery of their past experiences and through a reflection about dimensions such as skills, interests, constraints, and labor market. A research action approach was used to assess the proposed model, namely the perceived relevance of the theme and of the project, by adults themselves (N=44), employment professionals (N=15) and local companies (N=15), in an integrated manner. A set of activities were carried out: a train the trainer course and a monitoring session with employment professionals; collective and individual sessions with adults, including a monitoring session as well; and a workshop with local companies. Support materials for individual/collective reflection about professional paths were created and adjusted for each involved agent. An evaluation model was co-build by different stakeholders. Assessment was carried through a form created for the purpose, completed at the end of the different activities, which allowed us to collect quantitative and qualitative data. Statistical analysis was carried through SPSS software. Results showed that the participants, as well as the employment professionals and the companies involved, considered both the topic and the project as extremely relevant. Also, adults saw the project as an opportunity to reflect on their paths and become aware of the opportunities and the necessary conditions to achieve their goals; the professionals highlighted the support given by an integrated methodology and the existence of tools to assist the process; companies valued the opportunity to think about the topic and the possible initiatives they could implement within the company to diversify their recruitment pool. The results allow us to conclude that, in the local context under study, there is an alignment between different agents regarding the pertinence of supporting adults with work experience in professional transitions, seeing the project as a relevant strategy to address this issue, which justifies that it can be extended in time and to other working-age adults in the future.

Keywords: professional paths, research action, turning points, lifelong career guidance, relevance

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Authors: Rishana Bilimoria, Selina Tang, Sajni Shah, Marianne Henien, Christopher Sproat

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Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) may affect up to a third of the general population, and there is evidence demonstrating the majority of Myofascial TMD cases improve after education and conservative measures. In 2015 our department implemented a modified care pathway for myofascial TMD patients in an attempt to improve the patient journey. This involved the use of an interactive group therapy approach to deliver education, reinforce conservative measures and promote self-management. Patient reported experience measures from the new group clinic revealed 71% patient satisfaction. This service is efficient in improving aspects of health status while reducing health-care costs and redistributing clinical time. Since its’ establishment, 52 hours of clinical time, resources and funding have been redirected effectively. This Quality Improvement Project was initiated because it was felt that this new service was being underutilised by our surgical teams. The ‘Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle’ (PDSA) framework was employed to analyse utilisation of the service: The ‘plan’ stage involved outlining our aims: to raise awareness amongst clinicians of the unified care pathway and to increase referral to this clinic. The ‘do’ stage involved collecting data from a sample of 96 patients over 4 month period to ascertain the proportion of Myofascial TMD patients who were correctly referred to the designated clinic. ‘Suitable’ patients who weren’t referred were identified. The ‘Study’ phase involved analysis of results, which revealed that 77% of suitable patients weren’t referred to the designated clinic. They were reviewed on other clinics, which are often overbooked, or managed by junior staff members. This correlated with our original prediction. Barriers to referral included: lack of awareness of the clinic, individual consultant treatment preferences and patient, reluctance to be referred to a ‘group’ clinic. The ‘Act’ stage involved presenting our findings to the team at a clinical governance meeting. This included demonstration of the clinical effectiveness of the care-pathway and explaining the referral route and criteria. In light of the evaluation results, it was decided to keep the group clinic and maximize utilisation. The second cycle of data collection following these changes revealed that of 66 Myofascial TMD patients over a 4 month period, only 9% of suitable patients were not seen via the designated pathway; therefore this QIP was successful in meeting the set objectives. Overall, employing the PDSA cycle in this QIP resulted in appropriate utilisation of the modified care pathway for patients with myofascial TMD in Guy’s Oral Surgery Department. In turn, this leads to high patient satisfaction with the service and effectively redirected 52 hours of clinical time. It permitted adoption of a collaborative working style with oral surgery colleagues to investigate problems, identify solutions, and collectively raise standards of clinical care to ensure we adopt a unified care pathway in secondary care management of Myofascial TMD patients.

Keywords: myofascial, quality Improvement, PDSA, TMD

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Authors: Suliman Al-Fayoumi, Sherri Amberg, Huafeng Zhou, Jack W. Singer, James P. Dean

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Pacritinib is an oral kinase inhibitor with specificity for JAK2, FLT3, IRAK1, and CSF1R. In clinical studies, pacritinib was well tolerated with clinical activity in patients with myelofibrosis. The most frequent adverse events (AEs) observed with pacritinib are gastrointestinal (diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting; mostly grade 1-2 in severity) and typically resolve within 2 weeks. A human ADME mass balance study demonstrated that pacritinib is predominantly cleared via hepatic metabolism and biliary excretion (>85% of administered dose). The major hepatic metabolite identified, M1, is not thought to materially contribute to the pharmacological activity of pacritinib. Hepatic diseases are known to impair hepatic blood flow, drug-metabolizing enzymes, and biliary transport systems and may affect drug absorption, disposition, efficacy, and toxicity. This phase 1 study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of pacritinib and the M1 metabolite in study subjects with mild, moderate, or severe hepatic impairment (HI) and matched healthy subjects with normal liver function to determine if pacritinib dosage adjustments are necessary for patients with varying degrees of hepatic insufficiency. Study participants (aged 18-85 y) were enrolled into 4 groups based on their degree of HI as defined by Child-Pugh Clinical Assessment Score: mild (n=8), moderate (n=8), severe (n=4), and healthy volunteers (n=8) matched for age, BMI, and sex. Individuals with concomitant renal dysfunction or progressive liver disease were excluded. A single 400 mg dose of pacritinib was administered to all participants. Blood samples were obtained for PK evaluation predose and at multiple time points postdose through 168 h. Key PK parameters evaluated included maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), time to Cmax (Tmax), area under the plasma concentration time curve (AUC) from hour zero to last measurable concentration (AUC0-t), AUC extrapolated to infinity (AUC0-∞), and apparent terminal elimination half-life (t1/2). Following treatment, pacritinib was quantifiable for all study participants at 1 h through 168 h postdose. Systemic pacritinib exposure was similar between healthy volunteers and individuals with mild HI. However, there was a significant difference between those with moderate and severe HI and healthy volunteers with respect to peak concentration (Cmax) and plasma exposure (AUC0-t, AUC0-∞). Mean Cmax decreased by 47% and 57% respectively in participants with moderate and severe HI vs matched healthy volunteers. Similarly, mean AUC0-t decreased by 36% and 45% and mean AUC0-∞ decreased by 46% and 48%, respectively in individuals with moderate and severe HI vs healthy volunteers. Mean t1/2 ranged from 51.5 to 74.9 h across all groups. The variability on exposure ranged from 17.8% to 51.8% across all groups. Systemic exposure of M1 was also significantly decreased in study participants with moderate or severe HI vs. healthy participants and individuals with mild HI. These changes were not significantly dissimilar from the inter-patient variability in these parameters observed in healthy volunteers. All AEs were grade 1-2 in severity. Diarrhea and headache were the only AEs reported in >1 participant (n=4 each). Based on these observations, it is unlikely that dosage adjustments would be warranted in patients with mild, moderate, or severe HI treated with pacritinib.

Keywords: pacritinib, myelofibrosis, hepatic impairment, pharmacokinetics

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Authors: Gyu-Dong Kim, Wuk-Jae Yoo, Sang-Youl Lee

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Composite structures offer numerous advantages over conventional structural systems in the form of higher specific stiffness and strength, lower life-cycle costs, and benefits such as easy installation and improved safety. Recently, there has been a considerable increase in the use of composites in engineering applications and as wraps for seismic upgrading and repairs. However, these composites deteriorate with time because of outdated materials, excessive use, repetitive loading, climatic conditions, manufacturing errors, and deficiencies in inspection methods. In particular, damaged fibers in a composite result in significant degradation of structural performance. In order to reduce the failure probability of composites in service, techniques to assess the condition of the composites to prevent continual growth of fiber damage are required. Condition assessment technology and nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques have provided various solutions for the safety of structures by means of detecting damage or defects from static or dynamic responses induced by external loading. A variety of techniques based on detecting the changes in static or dynamic behavior of isotropic structures has been developed in the last two decades. These methods, based on analytical approaches, are limited in their capabilities in dealing with complex systems, primarily because of their limitations in handling different loading and boundary conditions. Recently, investigators have introduced direct search methods based on metaheuristics techniques and artificial intelligence, such as genetic algorithms (GA), simulated annealing (SA) methods, and neural networks (NN), and have promisingly applied these methods to the field of structural identification. Among them, GAs attract our attention because they do not require a considerable amount of data in advance in dealing with complex problems and can make a global solution search possible as opposed to classical gradient-based optimization techniques. In this study, we propose an alternative damage-detection technique that can determine the degraded stiffness distribution of vibrating laminated composites made of Glass Fiber-reinforced Polymer (GFRP). The proposed method uses a modified form of the bivariate Gaussian distribution function to detect degraded stiffness characteristics. In addition, this study presents a method to detect the fiber property variation of laminated composite plates from the micromechanical point of view. The finite element model is used to study free vibrations of laminated composite plates for fiber stiffness degradation. In order to solve the inverse problem using the combined method, this study uses only first mode shapes in a structure for the measured frequency data. In particular, this study focuses on the effect of the interaction among various parameters, such as fiber angles, layup sequences, and damage distributions, on fiber-stiffness damage detection.

Keywords: stiffness detection, fiber damage, genetic algorithm, layup sequences

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Authors: Nynne Nørup, Julie Helles Eriksen, Rikke M. Moalem, Else Skjold

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Despite a growing focus on the high environmental impact of textiles, textile waste is only recently considered as part of the waste field. Consequently, there is a general lack of knowledge and data within this field. Particularly the lack of a common perception of textiles generates several problems e.g., to recognize the full material potential the fraction contains, which is cruel if the textile must enter the circular economy. This study aims to qualify a method to make the resources in textile waste visible in a way that makes it possible to move them as high up in the waste hierarchy as possible. Textiles are complex and cover many different types of products, fibers and combinations of fibers and production methods. In garments alone, there is a great variety, even when narrowing it to only undergarments. However, textile waste is often reduced to one fraction, assessed solely by quantity, and compared to quantities of other waste fractions. Disregarding the complexity and reducing textiles to a single fraction that covers everything made of textiles increase the risk of neglecting the value of the materials, both with regards to their properties and economical. Instead of trying to fit textile waste into the current primarily linear waste system where volume is a key part of the business models, this study focused on integrating textile waste as a resource in the design and production phase. The study combined interdisciplinary methods for determining replacement rates used in Life Cycle Assessments and Mass Flow Analysis methods with the designer’s toolbox to hereby activate the properties of textile waste in a way that can unleash its potential optimally. It was hypothesized that by activating Denmark's tradition for design and high level of craftsmanship, it is possible to find solutions that can be used today and create circular resource models that reduce the use of virgin fibers. Through waste samples, case studies, and testing of various design approaches, this study explored how to functionalize the method so that the product after the end-use is kept as a material and only then processed at fiber level to obtain the best environmental utilization. The study showed that the designers' ability to decode the properties of the materials and understanding of craftsmanship were decisive for how well the materials could be utilized today. The later in the life cycle the textiles appeared as waste, the more demanding the description of the materials to be sufficient, especially if to achieve the best possible use of the resources and thus a higher replacement rate. In addition, it also required adaptation in relation to the current production because the materials often varied more. The study found good indications that part of the solution is to use geodata i.e., where in the life cycle the materials were discarded. An important conclusion is that a fully developed method can help support better utilization of textile resources. However, it stills requires a better understanding of materials by the designers, as well as structural changes in business and society.

Keywords: circular economy, development of sustainable processes, environmental impacts, environmental management of textiles, environmental sustainability through textile recycling, interdisciplinary method development, resource optimization, recycled textile materials and the evaluation of recycling, sustainability and recycling opportunities in the textile and apparel sector

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Authors: Sigal Portnoy, Yael Kaufman-Cohen, Yafa Levanon

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Introduction: Rehabilitation following wrist fractures often includes exercising flexion-extension movements with a dynamic splint. However, during daily activities, we combine most of our wrist movements with radial and ulnar deviations. Also, the multi-plane wrist motion, named the ‘dart throw motion’ (DTM), was found to be a more stable motion in healthy individuals, in term of the motion of the proximal carpal bones, compared with sagittal wrist motion. The aim of this study was therefore to explore the pathomechanics of the wrist in a common multi-plane movement pattern (DTM) and design a novel splint for rehabilitation following distal radius fractures. Methods: First, a multi-axis electro-goniometer was used to quantify the plane angle of motion of the dominant and non-dominant wrists during various activities, e.g. drinking from a glass of water and answering a phone in 43 healthy individuals. The following protocols were then implemented with a population following distal radius fracture. Two dynamic scans were performed, one of the sagittal wrist motion and DTM, in a 3T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) device, bilaterally. The scaphoid and lunate carpal bones, as well as the surface of the distal radius, were manually-segmented in SolidWorks and the angles of motion of the scaphoid and lunate bones were calculated. Subsequently, a patient-specific splint was designed using 3D scans of the hand. The brace design comprises of a proximal attachment to the arm and a distal envelope of the palm. An axle with two wheels is attached to the proximal part. Two wires attach the proximal part with the medial-palmar and lateral-ventral aspects of the distal part: when the wrist extends, the first wire is released and the second wire is strained towards the radius. The opposite occurs when the wrist flexes. The splint was attached to the wrist using Velcro and constrained the wrist movement to the desired calculated multi-plane of motion. Results: No significant differences were found between the multi-plane angles of the dominant and non-dominant wrists. The most common daily activities occurred at a plane angle of approximately 20° to 45° from the sagittal plane and the MRI studies show individual angles of the plane of motion. The printed splint fitted the wrist of the subjects and constricted movement to the desired multi-plane of motion. Hooks were inserted on each part to allow the addition of springs or rubber bands for resistance training towards muscle strengthening in the rehabilitation setting. Conclusions: It has been hypothesized that activation of the wrist in a multi-plane movement pattern following distal radius fractures will accelerate the recovery of the patient. Our results show that this motion can be determined from either the dominant or non-dominant wrists. The design of the patient-specific dynamic splint is the first step towards assessing whether splinting to induce combined movement is beneficial to the rehabilitation process, compared to conventional treatment. The evaluation of the clinical benefits of this method, compared to conventional rehabilitation methods following wrist fracture, are a part of a PhD work, currently conducted by an occupational therapist.

Keywords: distal radius fracture, rehabilitation, dynamic magnetic resonance imaging, dart throw motion

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Authors: Sarah Reker, Christiane H. Kellner

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From the perspective of people with disabilities, inequalities can also emerge from spatial segregation, the lack of social contacts or limited economic resources. In order to reduce or even eliminate these disadvantages and increase general well-being, community-based participation as well as decentralisation efforts within exclusively residential homes is essential. Therefore, the new research project “Index for participation development and quality of life for persons with disabilities”(TeLe-Index, 2014-2016), which is anchored at the Technische Universität München in Munich and at a large residential complex and service provider for persons with disabilities in the outskirts of Munich aims to assist the development of community-based living environments. People with disabilities should be able to participate in social life beyond the confines of the institution. Since a diverse society is a society in which different individual needs and wishes can emerge and be catered to, the ultimate goal of the project is to create an environment for all citizens–regardless of disability, age or ethnic background–that accommodates their daily activities and requirements. The UN-Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which Germany also ratified, postulates the necessity of user-centered design, especially when it comes to evaluating the individual needs and wishes of all citizens. Therefore, a multidimensional approach is required. Based on this insight, the structure of the town-like center will be remodeled to open up the community to all people. This strategy should lead to more equal opportunities and open the way for a much more diverse community. Therefore, macro-level research questions were inspired by quality of life theory and were formulated as follows for different dimensions: •The user dimension: what needs and necessities can we identify? Are needs person-related? Are there any options to choose from? What type of quality of life can we identify? The economic dimension: what resources (both material and staff-related) are available in the region? (How) are they used? What costs (can) arise and what effects do they entail? •The environment dimension: what “environmental factors” such as access (mobility and absence of barriers) prove beneficial or impedimental? In this context, we have provided academic supervision and support for three projects (the construction of a new school, inclusive housing for children and teenagers with disabilities and the professionalization of employees with person-centered thinking). Since we cannot present all the issues of the umbrella-project within the conference framework, we will be focusing on one project more in-depth, namely “Outpatient Housing Options for Children and Teenagers with Disabilities”. The insights we have obtained until now will enable us to present the intermediary results of our evaluation. The most central questions pertaining to this part of the research were the following: •How have the existing network relations been designed? •What meaning (or significance) does the existing service offers and structures have for the everyday life of an external residential group? These issues underpinned the environmental analyses as well as the qualitative guided interviews and qualitative network analyses we carried out.

Keywords: decentralisation, environmental analyses, outpatient housing options for children and teenagers with disabilities, qualitative network analyses

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Authors: Mohammad M. Khan, Pankaj Agarwal

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The present investigation deals with the microstructures, mechanical and detailed wear characteristics of in situ TiC particles reinforced zinc aluminum-based metal matrix composites. The composites have been synthesized by liquid metallurgy route using vortex technique. The composite was found to be harder than the matrix alloy due to high hardness of the dispersoid particles therein. The former was also lower in ultimate tensile strength and ductility as compared to the matrix alloy. This could be explained to be due to the use of coarser size dispersoid and larger interparticle spacing. Reasonably uniform distribution of the dispersoid phase in the alloy matrix and good interfacial bonding between the dispersoid and matrix was observed. The composite exhibited predominantly brittle mode of fracture with microcracking in the dispersoid phase indicating effective easy transfer of load from matrix to the dispersoid particles. To study the wear behavior of the samples three different types of tests were performed namely: (i) sliding wear tests using a pin on disc machine under dry condition, (ii) high stress (two-body) abrasive wear tests using different combinations of abrasive media and specimen surfaces under the conditions of varying abrasive size, traversal distance and load, and (iii) low-stress (three-body) abrasion tests using a rubber wheel abrasion tester at various loads and traversal distances using different abrasive media. In sliding wear test, significantly lower wear rates were observed in the case of base alloy over that of the composites. This has been attributed to the poor room temperature strength as a result of increased microcracking tendency of the composite over the matrix alloy. Wear surfaces of the composite revealed the presence of fragmented dispersoid particles and microcracking whereas the wear surface of matrix alloy was observed to be smooth with shallow grooves. During high-stress abrasion, the presence of the reinforcement offered increased resistance to the destructive action of the abrasive particles. Microcracking tendency was also enhanced because of the reinforcement in the matrix. The negative effect of the microcracking tendency was predominant by the abrasion resistance of the dispersoid. As a result, the composite attained improved wear resistance than the matrix alloy. The wear rate increased with load and abrasive size due to a larger depth of cut made by the abrasive medium. The wear surfaces revealed fine grooves, and damaged reinforcement particles while subsurface regions revealed limited plastic deformation and microcracking and fracturing of the dispersoid phase. During low-stress abrasion, the composite experienced significantly less wear rate than the matrix alloy irrespective of the test conditions. This could be explained to be due to wear resistance offered by the hard dispersoid phase thereby protecting the softer matrix against the destructive action of the abrasive medium. Abraded surfaces of the composite showed protrusion of dispersoid phase. The subsurface regions of the composites exhibited decohesion of the dispersoid phase along with its microcracking and limited plastic deformation in the vicinity of the abraded surfaces.

Keywords: abrasive wear, liquid metallurgy, metal martix composite, SEM

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Authors: Abdou Elhendy

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Numerous study have shown the efficacy of the percutaneous intervention (PCI) and coronary stenting in improving left ventricular function and relieving exertional angina. Furthermore, PCI remains the main line of therapy in acute myocardial infarction. Improvement of procedural techniques and new devices have resulted in an increased number of PCI in those with difficult and extensive lesions, multivessel disease as well as total occlusion. Immediate and late outcome may be compromised by acute thrombosis or the development of fibro-intimal hyperplasia. In addition, progression of coronary artery disease proximal or distal to the stent as well as in non-stented arteries is not uncommon. As a result, complications can occur, such as acute myocardial infarction, worsened heart failure or recurrence of angina. In a stent, restenosis can occur without symptoms or with atypical complaints rendering the clinical diagnosis difficult. Routine invasive angiography is not appropriate as a follow up tool due to associated risk and cost and the limited functional assessment. Exercise and pharmacologic stress testing are increasingly used to evaluate the myocardial function, perfusion and adequacy of revascularization. Information obtained by these techniques provide important clues regarding presence and severity of compromise in myocardial blood flow. Stress echocardiography can be performed in conjunction with exercise or dobutamine infusion. The diagnostic accuracy has been moderate, but the results provide excellent prognostic stratification. Adding myocardial contrast agents can improve imaging quality and allows assessment of both function and perfusion. Stress radionuclide myocardial perfusion imaging is an alternative to evaluate these patients. The extent and severity of wall motion and perfusion abnormalities observed during exercise or pharmacologic stress are predictors of survival and risk of cardiac events. According to current guidelines, stress echocardiography and radionuclide imaging are considered to have appropriate indication among patients after PCI who have cardiac symptoms and those who underwent incomplete revascularization. Stress testing is not recommended in asymptomatic patients, particularly early after revascularization, Coronary CT angiography is increasingly used and provides high sensitive for the diagnosis of coronary artery stenosis. Average sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of in stent stenosis in pooled data are 79% and 81%, respectively. Limitations include blooming artifacts and low feasibility in patients with small stents or thick struts. Anatomical and functional cardiac imaging modalities are corner stone for the assessment of patients after PCI and provide salient diagnostic and prognostic information. Current imaging techniques cans serve as gate keeper for coronary angiography, thus limiting the risk of invasive procedures to those who are likely to benefit from subsequent revascularization. The determination of which modality to apply requires careful identification of merits and limitation of each technique as well as the unique characteristic of each individual patient.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, stress testing, cardiac imaging, restenosis

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Ivy Chen XQ

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This research places a much-needed focus on the conservation of the Blue Economy (BE) by focusing on the design and development of monitoring systems to track critical indicators on the status of the BE. In this process, local experiences provide an insight into important community issues, as well as the necessity to cooperate and collaborate in order to achieve sustainable options. Researchers worldwide and industry initiatives over the last decade show that the exploitation of marine resources has resulted in a significant decrease in the share of total allowable catch (TAC). The result has been strengthening law enforcement, yet the results have shown that problems were related to poor policies, a lack of understanding of over-exploitation, biological uncertainty and political pressures. This reality and other statistics that show a significant negative impact on the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), warrant an emphasis on the development of national M&E systems, in order to provide evidence-based information, on the nature and scale of especially transnational fisheries crime and under-sea marine resources in the BE. In particular, a need exists to establish a compendium of relevant BE indicators to assess such impact against the SDGs by using selected SDG indicators for this purpose. The research methodology consists of ATLAS.ti qualitative approach and a case study will be developed of Illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) poaching and Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT) as component of the BE as it relates to the case of abalone in southern Africa and Far East. This research project will make an original contribution through the analysis and comparative assessment of available indicators, in the design process of M&E systems and developing indicators and monitoring frameworks in order to track critical trends and tendencies on the status of the BE, to ensure specific objectives to be aligned with the indicators of the SDGs framework. The research will provide a set of recommendations to governments and stakeholders involved in such projects on lessons learned, as well as priorities for future research. The research findings will enable scholars, civil society institutions, donors and public servants, to understand the capability of the M&E systems, the importance of showing multi-level governance, in the coordination of information management, together with knowledge management (KM) and M&E at the international, regional, national and local levels. This coordination should focus on a sustainable development management approach, based on addressing socio-economic challenges to the potential and sustainability of BE, with an emphasis on ecosystem resilience, social equity and resource efficiency. This research and study focus are timely as the opportunities of the post-Covid-19 crisis recovery package will be grasped to set the economy on a path to sustainable development in line with the UN 2030 Agenda. The pandemic raises more awareness for the world to eliminate IUU poaching and illegal wildlife trade (IWT).

Keywords: Blue Economy (BE), transnational governance, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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Authors: Carin Chuang, Kuan-Chou Chen

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An Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system is an integrated information system that supports the seamless integration of all the business processes of a company. Implementing an ERP system can increase efficiencies and decrease the costs while helping improve productivity. Many organizations including large, medium and small-sized companies have already adopted an ERP system for decades. Although ERP system can bring competitive advantages to organizations, the lack of proper training approach in ERP implementation is still a major concern. Organizations understand the importance of ERP training to adequately prepare managers and users. The low return on investment, however, for the ERP training makes the training difficult for knowledgeable workers to transfer what is learned in training to the jobs at workplace. Inadequate and inefficient ERP training limits the value realization and success of an ERP system. That is the need to call for a profound change and innovation for ERP training in both workplace at industry and the Information Systems (IS) education in academia. The innovated ERP training approach can improve the users’ knowledge in business processes and hands-on skills in mastering ERP system. It also can be instructed as educational material for IS students in universities. The purpose of the study is to examine the use of ERP simulation games via the ERPsim system to train the IS students in learning ERP implementation. The ERPsim is the business simulation game developed by ERPsim Lab at HEC Montréal, and the game is a real-life SAP (Systems Applications and Products) ERP system. The training uses the ERPsim system as the tool for the Internet-based simulation games and is designed as online student competitions during the class. The competitions involve student teams with the facilitation of instructor and put the students’ business skills to the test via intensive simulation games on a real-world SAP ERP system. The teams run the full business cycle of a manufacturing company while interacting with suppliers, vendors, and customers through sending and receiving orders, delivering products and completing the entire cash-to-cash cycle. To learn a range of business skills, student needs to adopt individual business role and make business decisions around the products and business processes. Based on the training experiences learned from rounds of business simulations, the findings show that learners have reduced risk in making mistakes that help learners build self-confidence in problem-solving. In addition, the learners’ reflections from their mistakes can speculate the root causes of the problems and further improve the efficiency of the training. ERP instructors teaching with the innovative approach report significant improvements in student evaluation, learner motivation, attendance, engagement as well as increased learner technology competency. The findings of the study can provide ERP instructors with guidelines to create an effective learning environment and can be transferred to a variety of other educational fields in which trainers are migrating towards a more active learning approach.

Keywords: business simulations, ERP implementation training, ERPsim, game-based learning, instructional strategy, training innovation

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Muhammad Shuaibu Birniwa

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Automobile Independent Workshop Service Technicians (popularly called roadside mechanics) are technical personals that repairs most of the automobile vehicles in Nigeria. Majority of these mechanics acquired their skills through apprenticeship training. Modern vehicle imported into the country posed greater challenges to the present automobile technicians particularly in the area of carrying out maintenance repairs of these latest automobile vehicles (autotronics vehicle) due to their inability to possessed autotronic skills competency. To source for solution to the above mentioned problems, therefore a research is carried out in North – Western region of Nigeria to produce a suitable maintenance training modules that can be used to train the technicians for them to upgrade/acquire the needed competencies for successful maintenance repair of the autotronic vehicles that were running everyday on the nation’s roads. A cluster sampling technique is used to obtain a sample from the population. The population of the study is all autotronic inclined lecturers, instructors and independent workshop service technicians that are within North – Western region of Nigeria. There are seven states (Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara) in the study area, these serves as clusters in the population. Five (5) states were randomly selected to serve as the sample size. The five states are Jigawa, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi and Zamfara, the entire population of the five states which serves as clusters is (183), lecturers (44), instructors (49) and autotronic independent workshop service technicians (90), all of them were used in the study because of their manageable size. 183 copies of autotronic maintenance training module questionnaires (AMTMQ) with 174 and 149 question items respectively were administered and collected by the researcher with the help of an assistants, they are administered to 44 Polytechnic lecturers in the department of mechanical engineering, 49 instructors in skills acquisition centres/polytechnics and 90 master craftsmen of an independent workshops that are autotronic inclined. Data collected for answering research questions 1, 3, 4 and 5 were analysed using SPSS software version 22, Grand Mean and standard deviation were used to answer the research questions. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to test null hypotheses one (1) to three (3) and t-test statistical tool is used to analyzed hypotheses four (4) and five (5) all at 0.05 level of significance. The research conducted revealed that; all the objectives, contents/tasks, facilities, delivery systems and evaluation techniques contained in the questionnaire were required for the development of the autotronic maintenance training modules for independent workshop service technicians in the north – western zone of Nigeria. The skills upgrade training conducted by federal government in collaboration with SURE-P, NAC and SMEDEN was not successful because the educational status of the target population was not considered in drafting the needed training modules. The mode of training used does not also take cognizance of the theoretical aspect of the trainees, especially basic science which rendered the programme ineffective and insufficient for the tasks on ground.

Keywords: autotronics, roadside, mechanics, technicians, independent

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Authors: Begona del Pino, Beatriz Prieto, Alberto Prieto

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Two opposite approaches to teaching can be considered: in-class learning (teacher-oriented) versus virtual learning (student-oriented). The most known example of the latter is Massive Online Open Courses (MOOCs). Both methodologies have pros and cons. Nowadays there is an increasing trend towards combining both of them. Blending learning is considered a valuable tool for improving learning since it combines student-centred interactive e-learning and face to face instruction. The aim of this contribution is to exchange and share the experience and research results of a blended-learning project that took place in the University of Granada (Spain). The research objective was to prove how combining didactic resources of a MOOC with in-class teaching, interacting directly with students, can substantially improve academic results, as well as student acceptance. The proposed methodology is based on the use of flipped learning technics applied to the subject ‘Fundamentals of Computer Science’ of the first course of two degrees: Telecommunications Engineering, and Industrial Electronics. In this proposal, students acquire the theoretical knowledges at home through a MOOC platform, where they watch video-lectures, do self-evaluation tests, and use other academic multimedia online resources. Afterwards, they have to attend to in-class teaching where they do other activities in order to interact with teachers and the rest of students (discussing of the videos, solving of doubts and practical exercises, etc.), trying to overcome the disadvantages of self-regulated learning. The results are obtained through the grades of the students and their assessment of the blended experience, based on an opinion survey conducted at the end of the course. The major findings of the study are the following: The percentage of students passing the subject has grown from 53% (average from 2011 to 2014 using traditional learning methodology) to 76% (average from 2015 to 2018 using blended methodology). The average grade has improved from 5.20±1.99 to 6.38±1.66. The results of the opinion survey indicate that most students preferred blended methodology to traditional approaches, and positively valued both courses. In fact, 69% of students felt ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the classroom activities; 65% of students preferred the flipped classroom methodology to traditional in-class lectures, and finally, 79% said they were ‘quite’ or ‘very’ satisfied with the course in general. The main conclusions of the experience are the improvement in academic results, as well as the highly satisfactory assessments obtained in the opinion surveys. The results confirm the huge potential of combining MOOCs in formal undergraduate studies with on-campus learning activities. Nevertheless, the results in terms of students’ participation and follow-up have a wide margin for improvement. The method is highly demanding for both students and teachers. As a recommendation, students must perform the assigned tasks with perseverance, every week, in order to take advantage of the face-to-face classes. This perseverance is precisely what needs to be promoted among students because it clearly brings about an improvement in learning.

Keywords: blended learning, educational paradigm, flipped classroom, flipped learning technologies, lessons learned, massive online open course, MOOC, teacher roles through technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Abdelmessih Malak Sadek Labib

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Ceramic materials are known for their stability in harsh environments and excellent electrical, mechanical, and thermal properties. They have been widely used in various applications despite the emergence of new materials such as plastics and composites. However, ceramics are often brittle, which can lead to catastrophic failure. The fragility of ceramics and the mechanisms behind their failure have been a topic of extensive research, particularly in load-bearing applications like veneers. Porcelain, a type of traditional pottery, is commonly used in such applications. Traditional pottery consists of clay, silica, and feldspar, and the presence of quartz in the ceramic body can lead to microcracks and stress concentrations. The mullite hypothesis suggests that the strength of porcelain can be improved by increasing the interlocking of mullite needles in the ceramic body. However, there is a lack of reports on Young's moduli in the literature, leading to erroneous conclusions about the mechanical behavior of porcelain. This project aims to investigate the role of quartz and mullite on the mechanical strength of various porcelains while considering factors such as particle size, flexural strength, and fractographic forces. Research Aim: The aim of this research project is to assess the role of quartz and mullite in enhancing the mechanical strength of different porcelains. The project will also explore the effect of reducing particle size on the properties of porcelain, as well as investigate flexural strength and fractographic techniques. Methodology: The methodology for this project involves using scientific expressions and a mix of modern English to ensure the understanding of all attendees. It will include the measurement of Young's modulus and the evaluation of the mechanical behavior of porcelains through various experimental techniques. Findings: The findings of this study will provide a realistic assessment of the role of quartz and mullite in strengthening and reducing the fragility of porcelain. The research will also contribute to a better understanding of the mechanical behavior of ceramics, specifically in load-bearing applications. Theoretical Importance: The theoretical importance of this research lies in its contribution to the understanding of the factors influencing the mechanical strength and fragility of ceramics, particularly porcelain. By investigating the interplay between quartz, mullite, and other variables, this study will enhance our knowledge of the properties and behavior of traditional ceramics. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: Data for this research will be collected through experiments involving the measurement of Young's modulus and other mechanical properties of porcelains. The effects of quartz, mullite, particle size, flexural strength, and fractographic forces will be examined and analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques and fractographic analysis. Questions Addressed: This research project aims to address the following questions: (1) How does the presence of quartz and mullite affect the mechanical strength of porcelain? (2) What is the impact of reducing particle size on the properties of porcelain? (3) How do flexural strength and fractographic forces influence the behavior of porcelains? Conclusion: In conclusion, this research project aims to enhance the understanding of the role of quartz and mullite in strengthening and reducing the fragility of porcelain. By investigating the mechanical properties of porcelains and considering factors such as particle size, flexural strength, and fractographic forces, this study will contribute to the knowledge of traditional ceramics and their potential applications. The findings will have practical implications for the use of ceramics in various fields.

Keywords: stability, harsh environments, electrical, techniques, mechanical disadvantages, materials

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Authors: Vaibhav Baliyan, S. S. Parihar

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With the rise in temperature during reproductive phase and moisture stress, winter wheat yields are likely to decrease because of limited plant growth, higher rate of night respiration, higher spikelet sterility or number of grains per spike and restricted embryo development thereby reducing grain number. Crop management practices play a pivotal role in minimizing adverse effects of terminal heat stress on wheat production. Amongst various agronomic management practices, adjusting sowing date, crop cultivars and irrigation scheduling have been realized to be simple yet powerful, implementable and eco-friendly mitigation strategies to sustain yields under elevated temperature conditions. Taking into account, large variability in wheat production in space and time, a study was conducted to identify the suitable wheat varieties under both early and late planting with suitable irrigation schedule for minimizing terminal heat stress effect and thereby improving wheat production. Experiments were conducted at research farms of Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India, separately for timely and late sown conditions with suitable varieties with staggering dates of sowing from 1st November to 30th November in case of timely sown and from 1st December to 31st December for late sown condition. The irrigation schedule followed for both the experiments were 100% of ETc (evapotranspiration of crop), 80% of ETc and 60% of ETc. Results of the timely sown experiment indicated that 1st November sowing resulted in higher grain yield followed by 10th November. However, delay in sowing thereafter resulted in gradual decrease in yield and the maximum reduction was noticed under 30th November sowing. Amongst the varieties, HD3086 produced higher grain yield compared to other varieties. Irrigation applied based on 100% of ETc gave higher yield comparable to 80% of ETc but both were significantly higher than 60% of ETc. It was further observed that even liberal irrigation under 100% of ETc could not compensate the yield under delayed sowing suggesting that rise in temperature beyond January adversely affected the growth and development of crop as well as forced maturity resulting in significant reduction of yield attributing characters due to terminal heat stress. Similar observations were recorded under late sown experiment too. Planting on 1st December along with 100% ETc of irrigation schedule resulted in significantly higher grain yield as compared to other dates and irrigation regimes. Further, it was observed that reduction in yield under late sown conditions was significantly large than the timely sown conditions irrespective of the variety grown and irrigation schedule followed. Delayed sowing resulted in reducing crop growth period and forced maturity in turn led to significant deterioration in all the yield attributing characters and there by reduction in yield suggesting that terminal heat stress had greater impact on yield under late sown crop than timely sown due to temperature rise coinciding with reproductive phase of the crop.

Keywords: climate, irrigation, mitigation, wheat

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Authors: Milada Krejci, Martin Hill, Vaclav Hosek, Dobroslava Jandova, Jiri Kajzar, Pavel Blaha

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The paper declares effects of exercise intervention of the research project “Basic research of balance changes in seniors”, granted by the Czech Science Foundation. The objective of the presented study is to define predictors, which influence bio-psycho-social consequences and effects of balance ability in senior 65 years old and above. We focused on the Fall-Efficacy Scale changes evaluation in seniors. Comprehensive hypothesis of the project declares, that motion uncertainty (dyskinesia) can negatively affect the well-being of a senior in bio-psycho-social context. In total, random selection and testing of 100 seniors (30 males, 70 females) from Prague and Central Bohemian region was provided. The sample was divided by stratified random selection into experimental and control groups, who underwent input and output testing. For diagnostics the methods of Medical Anamnesis, Functional anthropological examinations, Tinetti Balance Assessment Tool, SF-36 Health Survey, Anamnestic comparative self-assessment scale were used. Intervention method called "Life in Balance" based on yoga techniques was applied in four-week cycle. Results of multivariate regression were verified by repeated measures ANOVA: subject factor, phase of intervention (between-subject factor), body fluid (within-subject factor) and phase of intervention × body fluid interaction). ANOVA was performed with a repetition involving the factors of subjects, experimental/control group, phase of intervention (independent variable), and x phase interaction followed by Bonferroni multiple comparison assays with a test strength of at least 0.8 on the probability level p < 0.05. In the paper results of the first-year investigation of the three years running project are analysed. Results of balance tests confirmed no significant difference between females and males in pre-test. Significant improvements in balance and walking ability were observed in experimental group in females comparing to males (F = 128.4, p < 0.001). In the females control group, there was no significant change in post- test, while in the female experimental group positive changes in posture and spine flexibility in post-tests were found. It seems that females even in senior age react better to incentives of intervention in balance and spine flexibility. On the base of results analyses, we can declare the significant improvement in social balance markers after intervention in the experimental group (F = 10.5, p < 0.001). In average, seniors are used to take four drugs daily. Number of drugs can contribute to allergy symptoms and balance problems. It can be concluded that static balance and walking ability of seniors according Tinetti Balance scale correlate significantly with psychic and social monitored markers.

Keywords: exercises, balance, seniors 65+, health, mental and social balance

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: Serena Salvi

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Ageistic stereotypes and practices have become a normal and therefore pervasive phenomenon in various aspects of everyday life. Over the past years, renewed awareness towards self-directed age stereotyping in older adults has given rise to a line of research focused on the potential role of attitudes towards ageing on seniors’ health and functioning. This set of studies has showed how a negative internalisation of ageistic stereotypes would discourage older adults in seeking medical advice, in addition to be associated to negative subjective health evaluation. An important dimension of mental health that is often affected in older adults is represented by sleep quality. Self-reported sleep quality among older adults has shown to be often unreliable when compared to their objective sleep measures. Investigations focused on self-reported sleep quality among older adults have suggested how this portion of the population would tend to accept disrupted sleep if believed to be up to standard for their age. On the other hand, unrealistic expectations, and dysfunctional beliefs towards sleep in ageing, might prompt older adults to report sleep disruption even in the absence of objective disrupted sleep. Objective of this study is to examine an association between personal attitudes towards ageing in adults aged 60+ and dysfunctional sleep related cognition. More in detail, this study aims to investigate a potential association between personal attitudes towards ageing, sleep locus of control and dysfunctional beliefs towards sleep among this portion of the population. Data in this study were statistically analysed in SPSS software. Participants were recruited through the online participants recruitment system Prolific. Inclusion of attention check questions throughout the questionnaire and consistency of responses were looked at. Prior to the commencement of this study, Ethical Approval was granted (ref. 39396). Descriptive statistics were used to determine the frequency, mean, and SDs of the variables. Pearson coefficient was used for interval variables, independent T-test for comparing means between two independent groups, analysis of variance (ANOVA) test for comparing the means in several independent groups, and hierarchical linear regression models for predicting criterion variables based on predictor variables. In this study self-perceptions of ageing were assessed using APQ-B’s subscales, while dysfunctional sleep related cognition was operationalised using the SLOC and the DBAS16 scales. Of the final subscales taken in consideration in the brief version of the APQ questionnaire, Emotional Representations (ER), Control Positive (PC) and Control and Consequences Negative (NC) have shown to be of particularly relevance for the remits of this study. Regression analysis show how an increase in the APQ-B subscale Emotional Representations (ER) predicts an increase in dysfunctional beliefs and attitudes towards sleep in this sample, after controlling for subjective sleep quality, level of depression and chronological age. A second regression analysis showed that APQ-B subscales Control Positive (PC) and Control and Consequences Negative (NC) were significant predictors in the change of variance of SLOC, after controlling for subjective sleep quality, level of depression and dysfunctional beliefs about sleep.

Keywords: sleep-related cognition, perceptions of aging, older adults, sleep quality

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Authors: Recep Kesli, Cengiz Demir, Onur Turkyilmaz, Hayriye Tokay

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Objective: Gram-negative rods are a large group of bacteria, and include many families, genera, and species. Most clinical isolates belong to the family Enterobacteriaceae. Resistance due to the production of extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBLs) is a difficulty in the handling of Enterobacteriaceae infections, but other mechanisms of resistance are also emerging, leading to multidrug resistance and threatening to create panresistant species. We aimed in this study to evaluate resistance rates of Gram-negative rods bacteria isolated from clinical specimens in Microbiology Laboratory, Afyon Kocatepe University, ANS Research and Practice Hospital, between October 2012 and September 2015. Methods: The Gram-negative rods strains were identified by conventional methods and VITEK 2 automated identification system (bio-Mérieux, Marcy l’etoile, France). Antibiotic resistance tests were performed by both the Kirby-Bauer disk-diffusion and automated Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (AST, bio-Mérieux, Marcy l’etoile, France) methods. Disk diffusion results were evaluated according to the standards of Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI). Results: Of the totally isolated 1.701 Enterobacteriaceae strains 1434 (84,3%) were Klebsiella pneumoniae, 171 (10%) were Enterobacter spp., 96 (5.6%) were Proteus spp., and 639 Nonfermenting gram negatives, 477 (74.6%) were identified as Pseudomonas aeruginosa, 135 (21.1%) were Acinetobacter baumannii and 27 (4.3%) were Stenotrophomonas maltophilia. The ESBL positivity rate of the totally studied Enterobacteriaceae group were 30.4%. Antibiotic resistance rates for Klebsiella pneumoniae were as follows: amikacin 30.4%, gentamicin 40.1%, ampicillin-sulbactam 64.5%, cefepime 56.7%, cefoxitin 35.3%, ceftazidime 66.8%, ciprofloxacin 65.2%, ertapenem 22.8%, imipenem 20.5%, meropenem 20.5 %, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole 50.1%, and for 114 Enterobacter spp were detected as; amikacin 26.3%, gentamicin 31.5%, cefepime 26.3%, ceftazidime 61.4%, ciprofloxacin 8.7%, ertapenem 8.7%, imipenem 12.2%, meropenem 12.2%, and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole 19.2 %. Resistance rates for Proteus spp. were: 24,3% meropenem, 26.2% imipenem, 20.2% amikacin 10.5% cefepim, 33.3% ciprofloxacin and levofloxacine, 31.6% ceftazidime, 20% ceftriaxone, 15.2% gentamicin, 26.6% amoxicillin-clavulanate, and 26.2% trimethoprim-sulfamethoxale. Resistance rates of P. aeruginosa was found as follows: Amikacin 32%, gentamicin 42 %, imipenem 43%, merpenem 43%, ciprofloxacin 50%, levofloxacin 52%, cefepim 38%, ceftazidim 63%, piperacillin/tacobactam 85%, for Acinetobacter baumannii; Amikacin 53.3%, gentamicin 56.6 %, imipenem 83%, merpenem 86%, ciprofloxacin 100%, ceftazidim 100%, piperacillin/tacobactam 85 %, colisitn 0 %, and for S. malthophilia; levofloxacin 66.6 % and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxozole 0 %. Conclusions: This study showed that resistance in Gram-negative rods was a serious clinical problem in our hospital and suggested the need to perform typification of the isolated bacteria with susceptibility testing regularly in the routine laboratory procedures. This application guided to empirical antibiotic treatment choices truly, as a consequence of the reality that each hospital shows different resistance profiles.

Keywords: antibiotic resistance, gram negative rods, ESBL, VITEK 2

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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