Search results for: vulnerability discoverers

Authors: John Hardy

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A range of future-oriented intelligence techniques is commonly used by states to assess their national security and develop strategies to detect and manage threats, to develop and sustain capabilities, and to recover from attacks and disasters. Although homeland security organizations use future's intelligence tools to generate scenarios and simulations which inform their planning, there have been relatively few studies of the methods available or their applications for homeland security purposes. This study presents an assessment of one category of strategic intelligence techniques, termed Multi-Path Futures Analyses (MPFA), and how it can be applied to three distinct tasks for the purpose of analyzing homeland security issues. Within this study, MPFA are categorized as a suite of analytic techniques which can include effects-based operations principles, general morphological analysis, multi-path mapping, and multi-criteria decision analysis techniques. These techniques generate multiple pathways to potential futures and thereby generate insight into the relative influence of individual drivers of change, the desirability of particular combinations of pathways, and the kinds of capabilities which may be required to influence or mitigate certain outcomes. The study assessed eighteen uses of MPFA for homeland security purposes and found that there are five key applications of MPFA which add significant value to analysis. The first application is generating measures of success and associated progress indicators for strategic planning. The second application is identifying homeland security vulnerabilities and relationships between individual drivers of vulnerability which may amplify or dampen their effects. The third application is selecting appropriate resources and methods of action to influence individual drivers. The fourth application is prioritizing and optimizing path selection preferences and decisions. The fifth application is informing capability development and procurement decisions to build and sustain homeland security organizations. Each of these applications provides a unique perspective of a homeland security issue by comparing a range of potential future outcomes at a set number of intervals and by contrasting the relative resource requirements, opportunity costs, and effectiveness measures of alternative courses of action. These findings indicate that MPFA enhances analysts’ ability to generate tangible measures of success, identify vulnerabilities, select effective courses of action, prioritize future pathway preferences, and contribute to ongoing capability development in homeland security assessments.

Keywords: homeland security, intelligence, national security, operational design, strategic intelligence, strategic planning

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Authors: Asma Omri, Noureddine Benothman, Sofiane Sayahi, Fethi Tlili, Hichem Besbes

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Cycling, a popular mode of transportation, can also be perilous due to cyclists' vulnerability to collisions with vehicles and obstacles. This paper presents an innovative cyclist safety system based on radar technology designed to offer real-time collision risk warnings to cyclists. The system incorporates a low-power radar sensor affixed to the bicycle and connected to a microcontroller. It leverages radar point cloud detections, a clustering algorithm, and a supervised classifier. These algorithms are optimized for efficiency to run on the TI’s AWR 1843 BOOST radar, utilizing a coarse classification approach distinguishing between cars, trucks, two-wheeled vehicles, and other objects. To enhance the performance of clustering techniques, we propose a 2-Level clustering approach. This approach builds on the state-of-the-art Density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN). The objective is to first cluster objects based on their velocity, then refine the analysis by clustering based on position. The initial level identifies groups of objects with similar velocities and movement patterns. The subsequent level refines the analysis by considering the spatial distribution of these objects. The clusters obtained from the first level serve as input for the second level of clustering. Our proposed technique surpasses the classical DBSCAN algorithm in terms of geometrical metrics, including homogeneity, completeness, and V-score. Relevant cluster features are extracted and utilized to classify objects using an SVM classifier. Potential obstacles are identified based on their velocity and proximity to the cyclist. To optimize the system, we used the View of Delft dataset for hyperparameter selection and SVM classifier training. The system's performance was assessed using our collected dataset of radar point clouds synchronized with a camera on an Nvidia Jetson Nano board. The radar-based cyclist safety system is a practical solution that can be easily installed on any bicycle and connected to smartphones or other devices, offering real-time feedback and navigation assistance to cyclists. We conducted experiments to validate the system's feasibility, achieving an impressive 85% accuracy in the classification task. This system has the potential to significantly reduce the number of accidents involving cyclists and enhance their safety on the road.

Keywords: 2-level clustering, coarse classification, cyclist safety, warning system based on radar technology

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Theofanis Fotis, Nineta Polemi

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The European Union (EU) directive Artificial Intelligence (AI) Act in Article 9 requires that risk management of AI systems includes both technical and human oversight, while according to NIST_AI_RFM (Appendix C) and ENISA AI Framework recommendations, claim that further research is needed to understand the current limitations of social threats and human-AI interaction. AI threats within social contexts significantly affect the security and trustworthiness of the AI systems; they are interrelated and trigger technical threats as well. For example, lack of explainability (e.g. the complexity of models can be challenging for stakeholders to grasp) leads to misunderstandings, biases, and erroneous decisions. Which in turn impact the privacy, security, accountability of the AI systems. Based on the NIST four fundamental criteria for explainability it can also classify the explainability threats into four (4) sub-categories: a) Lack of supporting evidence: AI systems must provide supporting evidence or reasons for all their outputs. b) Lack of Understandability: Explanations offered by systems should be comprehensible to individual users. c) Lack of Accuracy: The provided explanation should accurately represent the system's process of generating outputs. d) Out of scope: The system should only function within its designated conditions or when it possesses sufficient confidence in its outputs. Biases may also stem from historical data reflecting undesired behaviors. When present in the data, biases can permeate the models trained on them, thereby influencing the security and trustworthiness of the of AI systems. Social related AI threats are recognized by various initiatives (e.g., EU Ethics Guidelines for Trustworthy AI), standards (e.g. ISO/IEC TR 24368:2022 on AI ethical concerns, ISO/IEC AWI 42105 on guidance for human oversight of AI systems) and EU legislation (e.g. the General Data Protection Regulation 2016/679, the NIS 2 Directive 2022/2555, the Directive on the Resilience of Critical Entities 2022/2557, the EU AI Act, the Cyber Resilience Act). Measuring social threats, estimating the risks to AI systems associated to these threats and mitigating them is a research challenge. In this paper it will present the efforts of two European Commission Projects (FAITH and THEMIS) from the HorizonEurope programme that analyse the social threats by building cyber-social exercises in order to study human behaviour, traits, cognitive ability, personality, attitudes, interests, and other socio-technical profile characteristics. The research in these projects also include the development of measurements and scales (psychometrics) for human-related vulnerabilities that can be used in estimating more realistically the vulnerability severity, enhancing the CVSS4.0 measurement.

Keywords: social threats, artificial Intelligence, mitigation, social experiment

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Authors: Sylvie Michel, Sylvie Gerbaix, Marc Bidan

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The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major and global disruption that has affected all supply chains on a worldwide scale. Consequently, the question posed by this communication is to understand how - in the face of such disruptions - supply chains, including their actors, management tools, and processes, react, survive, adapt, and even improve. To do so, the concepts of resilience and antifragility applied to a supply chain have been leveraged. This article proposes to perceive resilience as a step to surpass in moving towards antifragility. The research objective is to propose an analytical framework to measure and compare resilience and antifragility, with antifragility seen as a property of a system that improves when subjected to disruptions rather than merely resisting these disruptions, as is the case with resilience. A unique case study was studied - MSF logistics (France) - using a qualitative methodology. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in person and remotely in multiple phases: during and immediately after the COVID crisis (8 interviews from March 2020 to April 2021), followed by a new round from September to November 2023. A Delphi method was employed. The interviews were analyzed using coding and a thematic framework. One of the theoretical contributions is consolidating the field of supply chain resilience research by precisely characterizing the dimensions of resilience for a humanitarian supply chain (Reorganization, Collaboration mediated by IS, Humanitarian culture). In this regard, a managerial contribution of this study is providing a guide for managers to identify the four dimensions and sub-dimensions of supply chain resilience. This enables managers to focus their decisions and actions on dimensions that will enhance resilience. Most importantly, another contribution is comparing the concepts of resilience and antifragility and proposing an analytical framework for antifragility—namely, the mechanisms on which MSF logistics relied to capitalize on uncertainties, contingencies, and shocks rather than simply enduring them. For MSF Logistics, antifragility manifested through the ability to identify opportunities hidden behind the uncertainties and shocks of COVID-19, reducing vulnerability, and fostering a culture that encourages innovation and the testing of new ideas. Logistics, particularly in the humanitarian domain, must be able to adapt to environmental disruptions. In this sense, this study identifies and characterizes the dimensions of resilience implemented by humanitarian logistics. Moreover, this research goes beyond the concept of resilience to propose an analytical framework for the concept of antifragility. The organization studied emerged stronger from the COVID-19 crisis due to the mechanisms we identified, allowing us to characterize antifragility. Finally, the results show that the information system plays a key role in antifragility.

Keywords: antifragility, humanitarian supply chain, information systems, qualitative research, resilience.

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Authors: Fadi Saleh, Çığdem Sezer Zhmurov

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Biopharmaceuticals represent one of the wildest developing fields within biotechnology, and the biological macromolecules being produced inside cells have a variety of applications for therapies. In the past, mammalian cells, especially CHO cells, have been employed in the production of biopharmaceuticals. This is because these cells can achieve human-like completion of PTM. These systems, however, carry apparent disadvantages like high production costs, vulnerability to contamination, and limitations in scalability. This research is focused on the utilization of microalgae as a bioreactor system for the synthesis of biopharmaceutical glycoproteins in relation to PTMs, particularly N-glycosylation. The research points to a growing interest in microalgae as a potential substitute for more conventional expression systems. A number of advantages exist in the use of microalgae, including rapid growth rates, the lack of common human pathogens, controlled scalability in bioreactors, and the ability of some PTMs to take place. Thus, the potential of microalgae to produce recombinant proteins with favorable characteristics makes this a promising platform in order to produce biopharmaceuticals. The study focuses on the examination of the N-glycosylation pathways across different species of microalgae. This investigation is important as N-glycosylation—the process by which carbohydrate groups are linked to proteins—profoundly influences the stability, activity, and general performance of glycoproteins. Additionally, bioinformatics methodologies are employed to explain the genetic pathways implicated in N-glycosylation within microalgae, with the intention of modifying these organisms to produce glycoproteins suitable for human consumption. In this way, the present comparative analysis of the N-glycosylation pathway in humans and microalgae can be used to bridge both systems in order to produce biopharmaceuticals with humanized glycosylation profiles within the microalgal organisms. The results of the research underline microalgae's potential to help improve some of the limitations associated with traditional biopharmaceutical production systems. The study may help in the creation of a cost-effective and scale-up means of producing quality biopharmaceuticals by modifying microalgae genetically to produce glycoproteins with N-glycosylation that is compatible with humans. Improvements in effectiveness will benefit biopharmaceutical production and the biopharmaceutical sector with this novel, green, and efficient expression platform. This thesis, therefore, is thorough research into the viability of microalgae as an efficient platform for producing biopharmaceutical glycoproteins. Based on the in-depth bioinformatic analysis of microalgal N-glycosylation pathways, a platform for their engineering to produce human-compatible glycoproteins is set out in this work. The findings obtained in this research will have significant implications for the biopharmaceutical industry by opening up a new way of developing safer, more efficient, and economically more feasible biopharmaceutical manufacturing platforms.

Keywords: microalgae, glycoproteins, post-translational modification, genome

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Authors: Peter Williams

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Mobile digital technology, in the form of smart phones, tablets, laptops and their accompanying functionality/apps etc., is becoming ever more used by people with Learning Disabilities (LD) - for entertainment, to communicate and socialize, and enjoy self-expression. Despite this, there has been very little research into the experiences of such technology by this cohort, it’s role in articulating personal identity and self-advocacy and the barriers encountered in negotiating technology in everyday life. The proposed talk describes research funded by the British Academy addressing these issues. It aims to explore: i) the experiences of people with LD in using mobile technology in their everyday lives – the benefits, in terms of entertainment, self-expression and socialising, and possible greater autonomy; and the barriers, such as accessibility or usability issues, privacy or vulnerability concerns etc. ii) how the technology, and in particular the software/apps and interfaces, can be improved to enable the greater access to entertainment, information, communication and other benefits it can offer. It is also hoped that results will inform parents, carers and other supporters regarding how they can use the technology with their charges. Rather than the project simply following the standard research procedure of gathering and analysing ‘data’ to which individual ‘research subjects’ have no access, people with Learning Disabilities (and their supporters) will help co-produce an accessible, annotated and hyperlinked living e-archive of their experiences. Involving people with LD as informants, contributors and, in effect, co-researchers will facilitate digital inclusion and empowerment. The project is working with approximately 80 adults of all ages who have ‘mild’ learning disabilities (people who are able to read basic texts and write simple sentences). A variety of methods is being used. Small groups of participants have engaged in simple discussions or storytelling about some aspect of technology (such as ‘when my phone saved me’ or ‘my digital photos’ etc.). Some individuals have been ‘interviewed’ at a PC, laptop or with a mobile device etc., and asked to demonstrate their usage and interests. Social media users have shown their Facebook pages, Pinterest uploads or other material – giving them an additional focus they have used to discuss their ‘digital’ lives. During these sessions, participants have recorded (or employed the researcher to record) their observations on to the e-archive. Parents, carers and other supporters are also being interviewed to explore their experiences of using mobile technology with the cohort, including any difficulties they have observed their charges having. The archive is supplemented with these observations. The presentation will outline the methods described above, highlighting some of the special considerations required when working inclusively with people with LD. It will describe some of the preliminary findings and demonstrate the e-archive with a commentary on the pages shown.

Keywords: inclusive research, learning disabilities, methods, technology

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Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma resulted four major influxes of the Rohingya people to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving a huge number of the Rohingya, one of the fundamental human rights of the Rohingya – education – has never been fulfilled in Bangladesh. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief of the government of Bangladesh has been looking after the Rohingya and managing various programs for the Rohingya. On its website, the Ministry claims that it provides the basic supports/services to the Rohingya, including providing education. In practice, however, education for the Rohingya include only the provisions for registered Rohingya refugees – who are a very small number of populations among the entire Rohingya hosted in Bangladesh – and that is only up to grade 7 within the registered camps at Teknaf and Ukhia of Cox’s Bazar district of the country. There is no answer of the question, ‘What’s next’? Although refugees in Canada, Sudan, Turkey and other countries have been allowed to go to mainstream schools, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are not allowed to do so legally. Due to the lack of proof of nationality of the Rohingya, the government of Bangladesh imposes restrictions on their access to Bangladeshi schools. However, despite their vulnerability and statelessness, many Rohingyas are desperate to pursue education outside the camps and find their own way not only within Cox’s Bazar but also even in the capital city of the country. But they must hide their refugee identity to accomplish this. My research aims to explore how they manage to get admission amid government restrictions on their access to education in the mainstream institutions in Bangladesh. It will reveal how Rohingya people use adopted identity to get access to education in Bangladesh, and how they apply their own techniques to achieve their goals without having government approved identity. This research examined the strategies the Rohingya applied to manage documents related to their identity to ensure their admission to Bangladeshi education institutions – in schools, colleges, and universities. The research employed a qualitative approach. It used semi structured individual interviews and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) with 20 male and female Rohingya refugees who are 18 years old and above, and have enrolled in Bangladeshi education institutions with adopted identity. Also I interviewed 5 local community members and policy makers to understand their perceptions and roles in this process. The findings of this research will allow the policy makers to rethink the outcomes of the restrictions on Rohingya’s education in Bangladesh, the ramifications of the denial of Rohingya’s access to education, and initiate policy dialogues on how to allow Rohingya refugees to pursue education in Bangladesh in legal way.

Keywords: Rohingya, Refugee, Bangladesh, Education

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Authors: A. Shakoor, M. Arshad

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The utilization of groundwater resources in irrigation has significantly increased during the last two decades due to constrained canal water supplies. More than 70% of the farmers in the Punjab, Pakistan, depend directly or indirectly on groundwater to meet their crop water demands and hence, an unchecked paradigm shift has resulted in aquifer depletion and deterioration. Therefore, a comprehensive research was carried at central Punjab-Pakistan, regarding spatiotemporal variation in groundwater level and quality. Processing MODFLOW for window (PMWIN) and MT3D (solute transport model) models were used for existing and future prediction of groundwater level and quality till 2030. The comprehensive data set of aquifer lithology, canal network, groundwater level, groundwater salinity, evapotranspiration, groundwater abstraction, recharge etc. were used in PMWIN model development. The model was thus, successfully calibrated and validated with respect to groundwater level for the periods of 2003 to 2007 and 2008 to 2012, respectively. The coefficient of determination (R2) and model efficiency (MEF) for calibration and validation period were calculated as 0.89 and 0.98, respectively, which argued a high level of correlation between the calculated and measured data. For solute transport model (MT3D), the values of advection and dispersion parameters were used. The model used for future scenario up to 2030, by assuming that there would be no uncertain change in climate and groundwater abstraction rate would increase gradually. The model predicted results revealed that the groundwater would decline from 0.0131 to 1.68m/year during 2013 to 2030 and the maximum decline would be on the lower side of the study area, where infrastructure of canal system is very less. This lowering of groundwater level might cause an increase in the tubewell installation and pumping cost. Similarly, the predicted total dissolved solids (TDS) of the groundwater would increase from 6.88 to 69.88mg/L/year during 2013 to 2030 and the maximum increase would be on lower side. It was found that in 2030, the good quality would reduce by 21.4%, while marginal and hazardous quality water increased by 19.28 and 2%, respectively. It was found from the simulated results that the salinity of the study area had increased due to the intrusion of salts. The deterioration of groundwater quality would cause soil salinity and ultimately the reduction in crop productivity. It was concluded from the predicted results of groundwater model that the groundwater deteriorated with the depth of water table i.e. TDS increased with declining groundwater level. It is recommended that agronomic and engineering practices i.e. land leveling, rainwater harvesting, skimming well, ASR (Aquifer Storage and Recovery Wells) etc. should be integrated to meliorate management of groundwater for higher crop production in salt affected soils.

Keywords: groundwater quality, groundwater management, PMWIN, MT3D model

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Rajni Singh, Rakesh Mishra, Mukunda Upadhyay

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India is among the nations born out of partition that led to one of the greatest forced migrations that marked the past century. The Indian subcontinent got partitioned into two nation-states, namely India and Pakistan. This led to an unexampled mass displacement of people accounting for about 20 million in the subcontinent as a whole. This exemplifies the socio-political version of displacement, but there are other identified reasons leading to human displacement viz., natural calamities, development projects and people-trafficking and smuggling. Although forced migrations are rare in incidence, they are mostly region-specific and a very less percentage of population appears to be affected by it. However, when this percentage is transcripted in terms of volume, the real impact created by such migration can be realized. Forced migration is thus an issue related to the lives of many people and requires to be addressed with proper intervention. Forced or involuntary migration decimates peoples' assets while taking from them their most basic resources and makes them migrate without planning and intention. This in most cases proves to be a burden on the destination resources. Thus, the question related to their security concerns arise profoundly with regard to the protection and safeguards to these migrants who need help at the place of destination. This brings the human security dimension of forced migration into picture. The present study is an analysis of a sample of 1501 persons by NSSO in India (National Sample Survey Organisation), which identifies three reasons for forced migration- natural disaster, social/political problem and displacement by development projects. It was observed that, of the total forced migrants, about 4/5th comprised of the internally displaced persons. However, there was a huge inflow of such migrants to the country from across the borders also, the major contributing countries being Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Gulf countries and Nepal. Among the three reasons for involuntary migration, social and political problem is the most prominent in displacing huge masses of population; it is also the reason where the share of international migrants to that of internally displaced is higher compared to the other two factors /reasons. Second to political and social problems, natural calamities displaced a high portion of the involuntary migrants. The present paper examines the factors which increase people's vulnerability to forced migration. On perusing the background characteristics of the migrants it was seen that those who were economically weak and socially fragile are more susceptible to migration. Therefore, getting an insight about this fragile group of society is required so that government policies can benefit these in the most efficient and targeted manner.

Keywords: involuntary migration, displacement, natural disaster, social and political problem

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Authors: Madhavi-Priya Singh, Liam Lowe, Farouk Arnaout, Ludmilla Pillay, Giordan Perez, Luke Mischker, Steve Costa

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Introduction: An Emergency Department consultant identified the failure of medical students to complete the task of clerking a patient in its entirety. As six medical students on our first clinical placement, we recognised our own failure and endeavored to examine why this failure was consistent among all medical students that had been given this task, despite our best motivations as adult learners. Aim: Our aim is to understand and investigate the elements which impeded our ability to learn and perform as medical students in the clinical environment, with reference to the prescribed task. We also aim to generate a discussion around the delivery of medical education with potential solutions to these barriers. Methods: Six medical students gathered together to have a comprehensive reflective discussion to identify possible factors leading to the failure of the task. First, we thoroughly analysed the delivery of the instructions with reference to the literature to identify potential flaws. We then examined personal, social, ethical, and cultural factors which may have impacted our ability to complete the task in its entirety. Results: Through collation of our shared experiences, with support from discussion in the field of medical education and ethics, we identified two major areas that impacted our ability to complete the set task. First, we experienced an ethical conflict where we believed the inconvenience and potential harm inflicted on patients did not justify the positive impact the patient interaction would have on our medical learning. Second, we identified a lack of confidence stemming from multiple factors, including the conflict between preclinical and clinical learning, perceptions of perfectionism in the culture of medicine, and the influence of upward social comparison. Discussion: After discussions, we found that the various factors we identified exacerbated the fears and doubts we already had about our own abilities and that of the medical education system. This doubt led us to avoid completing certain aspects of the tasks that were prescribed and further reinforced our vulnerability and perceived incompetence. Exploration of philosophical theories identified the importance of the role of doubt in education. We propose the need for further discussion around incorporating both pedagogic and andragogic teaching styles in clinical medical education and the acceptance of doubt as a driver of our learning. Conclusion: Doubt will continue to permeate our thoughts and actions no matter what. The moral or psychological distress that arises from this is the key motivating factor for our avoidance of tasks. If we accept this doubt and education embraces this doubt, it will no longer linger in the shadows as a negative and restrictive emotion but fuel a brighter dialogue and positive learning experience, ultimately assisting us in achieving our full potential.

Keywords: ethics, medical student, doubt, medical education, faith

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Authors: Naveed Ali

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Under the construct of the ‘traditional family’ set-up (male and female parent) in the United Kingdom, the absence of a male parental figure remains a critical factor associated with an elevated risk of criminal behavior among youths. Empirical evidence suggests that father absence significantly correlates with increased rates of juvenile delinquency and criminality. For instance, data reveals that approximately 63% of young offenders in the United Kingdom originate from single-parent households, predominantly those without a father. Moreover, research displays that boys from father-absent homes are three times more likely to exhibit antisocial behavior compared to their peers from two-parent families. This absence can negatively impact educational attainment, with children from fatherless homes being twice as likely to leave school prematurely, thereby increasing their vulnerability to peer influence and gang affiliation- key pathways into criminal activities. Both legal frameworks and social policies in the United Kingdom acknowledge the pivotal role of family stability in crime prevention. Initiatives including parenting support programs, community-based interventions, and targeted youth services seek to address the challenges faced by single-parent families and mitigate the criminogenic effects of father absence. Despite these efforts, persistent challenges remain, including the need to address the broader socioeconomic determinants of family instability and to refine legal strategies that effectively address the root causes of youth offending linked to the absence of a male parental figure. A nuanced understanding of these dynamics is essential for developing more effective legal and social interventions aimed at reducing juvenile delinquency and supporting at-risk populations within the United Kingdom. This paper will highlight the significant impact of the absence of a male parental figure on youth crime rates in the United Kingdom, underlining the need for enhanced legal and social responses. By examining the interplay between family structure and juvenile offending, the paper will underline the importance of developing more comprehensive interventions that address both familial factors and the wider socioeconomic context. The findings aim to guide policymakers and practitioners in creating more effective strategies to reduce youth crime, ultimately strengthening support systems for vulnerable families and mitigating the adverse effects of father absence on young individuals.

Keywords: criminality, family law, legal framework, the united kingdom perspective

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Authors: Heribert R. Kaijage, Samuel N. A. Codjoe, Simon H. D. Mamuya, Mangi J. Ezekiel

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There is strong evidence that climate has changed significantly affecting various sectors including public health. The recommended feasible solution is adopting development trajectories which combine both mitigation and adaptation measures for improving resilience pathways. This approach demands a consideration for complex interactions between climate and social-ecological systems. While other sectors such as agriculture and water have developed climate resilience indices, the public health sector in Tanzania is still lagging behind. The aim of this study was to find out how can we use Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) linked with Remote Sensing (RS) technology and metrological information as tools to inform climate change resilient development and evaluation for the health sector. Methodological review was conducted whereby a number of studies were content analyzed to find appropriate indicators and indices for climate resilience household and their integration approach. These indicators were critically reviewed, listed, filtered and their sources determined. Preliminary identification and ranking of indicators were conducted using participatory approach of pairwise weighting by selected national stakeholders from meeting/conferences on human health and climate change sciences in Tanzania. DHS datasets were retrieved from Measure Evaluation project, processed and critically analyzed for possible climate change indicators. Other sources for indicators of climate change exposure were also identified. For the purpose of preliminary reporting, operationalization of selected indicators was discussed to produce methodological approach to be used in resilience comparative analysis study. It was found that household climate resilient index depends on the combination of three indices namely Household Adaptive and Mitigation Capacity (HC), Household Health Sensitivity (HHS) and Household Exposure Status (HES). It was also found that, DHS alone cannot complement resilient evaluation unless integrated with other data sources notably flooding data as a measure of vulnerability, remote sensing image of Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Metrological data (deviation from rainfall pattern). It can be concluded that if these indices retrieved from DHS data sets are computed and scientifically integrated can produce single climate resilience index and resilience maps could be generated at different spatial and time scales to enhance targeted interventions for climate resilient development and evaluations. However, further studies are need to test for the sensitivity of index in resilience comparative analysis among selected regions.

Keywords: climate change, resilience, remote sensing, demographic and health surveys

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Authors: Alba Ballester Ciuró, Marc Pares Franzi

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While coming decades are likely to see a higher flood risk in Europe and greater socio-economic damages, traditional flood risk management has become inefficient. In response to that, new approaches such as capacity building and public participation have recently been incorporated in natural hazards mitigation policy (i.e. Sendai Framework for Action, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and EU Floods Directive). By integrating capacity building and public participation, we present a research concerning the promotion of participatory social capacity building actions for flood risk mitigation at the local level. Social capacities have been defined as the resources and abilities available at individual and collective level that can be used to anticipate, respond to, cope with, recover from and adapt to external stressors. Social capacity building is understood as a process of identifying communities’ social capacities and of applying collaborative strategies to improve them. This paper presents a proposal of systematization of participatory social capacity building process for flood risk mitigation, and its implementation in a high risk of flooding area in the Ebro river basin: Ribera Alta del Ebro. To develop this process, we designed and tested a tool that allows measuring and building five types of social capacities: knowledge, motivation, networks, participation and finance. The tool implementation has allowed us to assess social capacities in the area. Upon the results of the assessment we have developed a co-decision process with stakeholders and flood risk management authorities on which participatory activities could be employed to improve social capacities for flood risk mitigation. Based on the results of this process, and focused on the weaker social capacities, we developed a set of participatory actions in the area oriented to general public and stakeholders: informative sessions on flood risk management plan and flood insurances, interpretative river descents on flood risk management (with journalists, teachers, and general public), interpretative visit to the floodplain, workshop on agricultural insurance, deliberative workshop on project funding, deliberative workshops in schools on flood risk management (playing with a flood risk model). The combination of obtaining data through a mixed-methods approach of qualitative inquiry and quantitative surveys, as well as action research through co-decision processes and pilot participatory activities, show us the significant impact of public participation on social capacity building for flood risk mitigation and contributes to the understanding of which main factors intervene in this process.

Keywords: flood risk management, public participation, risk reduction, social capacities, vulnerability assessment

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Authors: Izabella Szollosi, Klara Marton

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Aphasia can be defined as a weakness in accessing linguistic information. Accessing linguistic information is strongly related to information processing, which in turn is associated with the cognitive control system. According to the literature, a deficit in the cognitive control system interferes with language processing and contributes to non-fluent speech performance. The aim of our study was to explore this hypothesis by investigating how cognitive control interacts with language performance in participants with non-fluent aphasia. Cognitive control is a complex construct that includes working memory (WM) and the ability to resist proactive interference (PI). Based on previous research, we hypothesized that impairments in domain-general (DG) cognitive control abilities have negative effects on language processing. In contrast, better DG cognitive control functioning supports goal-directed behavior in language-related processes as well. Since stroke itself might slow down information processing, it is important to examine its negative effects on both cognitive control and language processing. Participants (N=52) in our study were individuals with non-fluent Broca’s aphasia (N = 13), with transcortical motor aphasia (N=13), individuals with stroke damage without aphasia (N=13), and unimpaired speakers (N = 13). All participants performed various computer-based tasks targeting cognitive control functions such as WM and resistance to PI in both linguistic and non-linguistic domains. Non-linguistic tasks targeted primarily DG functions, while linguistic tasks targeted more domain specific (DS) processes. The results showed that participants with Broca’s aphasia differed from the other three groups in the non-linguistic tasks. They performed significantly worse even in the baseline conditions. In contrast, we found a different performance profile in the linguistic domain, where the control group differed from all three stroke-related groups. The three groups with impairment performed more poorly than the controls but similar to each other in the verbal baseline condition. In the more complex verbal PI condition, however, participants with Broca’s aphasia performed significantly worse than all the other groups. Participants with Broca’s aphasia demonstrated the most severe language impairment and the highest vulnerability in tasks measuring DG cognitive control functions. Results support the notion that the more severe the cognitive control impairment, the more severe the aphasia. Thus, our findings suggest a strong interaction between cognitive control and language. Individuals with the most severe and most general cognitive control deficit - participants with Broca’s aphasia - showed the most severe language impairment. Individuals with better DG cognitive control functions demonstrated better language performance. While all participants with stroke damage showed impaired cognitive control functions in the linguistic domain, participants with better language skills performed also better in tasks that measured non-linguistic cognitive control functions. The overall results indicate that the level of cognitive control deficit interacts with the language functions in individuals along with the language spectrum (from severe to no impairment). However, future research is needed to determine any directionality.

Keywords: cognitive control, information processing, language performance, non-fluent aphasia

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Authors: Ayesha Akbar

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Pakistan is moving from a security state to a welfare state despite several security challenges both internal and external. Human security signifies a varied approach in different regions depending upon the leadership and policy priorities. The link between human development and economic growth is not automatic. It has to be created consciously by forward-looking policies and strategies by national governments. There are seven components or categories of human security these include: Economic Security, Personal Security, Health Security, Environmental Security, Food Security, Community Security and Political Security. The increasing interest of the international community to clearly understand the dimensions of human security provided the grounds to Pakistani scholars as well to ponder on the issue and delineate lines of human security. A great deal of work has been either done or in process to evaluate human security indicators in Pakistan. Notwithstanding, after having been done a great deal of work the human security in Pakistan is not satisfactory. A range of deteriorating indicators of human development that lies under the domain of human security leaves certain inquiries to be answered. What are the dimensions of human security in Pakistan? And how are they being dealt from the perspective of policy and institution in terms of its operationalization in Pakistan? Is the human security discourse reflects evidence-based policy changes. The methodology is broadly based on qualitative methods that include interviews, content analysis of policy documents. Pakistan is among the most populous countries in the world and faces high vulnerability to climate change. Literacy rate has gone down with the surge of youth bulge to accommodate in the job market. Increasing population is creating food problems as the resources have not been able to compete with the raising demands of food and other social amenities of life. Majority of the people are facing acute poverty. Health outcomes are also not satisfactory with the high infant and maternal mortality rate. Pakistan is on the verge of facing water crisis as the water resources are depleting so fast with the high demand in agriculture and energy sector. Pakistan is striving hard to deal with the declining state of human security but the dilemma is lack of resources that hinders in meeting up with the emerging demands. The government requires to bring about more change with scaling-up economic growth avenues with enhancing the capacity of human resources. A modern performance drive culture with the integration of technology is required to deliver efficient and effective service delivery. On an already fast track process of reforms; e-governance and evidence based policy mechanism is being instilled in the government process for better governance and evidence based decisions.

Keywords: governance, human development index, human security, Pakistan, policy

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Authors: Bharti Singh, Shri K. Singh

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Child malnutrition is a multifaceted issue that transcends geographical boundaries. Malnutrition not only stunts physical growth but also leads to a spectrum of morbidities and child mortality. It is one of the leading causes of death (~50 %) among children under age five. Despite economic progress and advancements in healthcare, child malnutrition remains a formidable challenge for India. The objective is to investigate the impact of women's empowerment on child nutrition outcomes in India from 2006 to 2021. A composite index of women's empowerment was constructed using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA), a rigorous technique that validates the measurement model by assessing how well-observed variables represent latent constructs. This approach ensures the reliability and validity of the empowerment index. Secondly, kernel density plots were utilised to visualise the distribution of key nutritional indicators, such as stunting, wasting, and overweight. These plots offer insights into the shape and spread of data distributions, aiding in understanding the prevalence and severity of malnutrition. Thirdly, linear polynomial graphs were employed to analyse how nutritional parameters evolved with the child's age. This technique enables the visualisation of trends and patterns over time, allowing for a deeper understanding of nutritional dynamics during different stages of childhood. Lastly, multilevel analysis was conducted to identify vulnerable levels, including State-level, PSU-level, and household-level factors impacting undernutrition. This approach accounts for hierarchical data structures and allows for the examination of factors at multiple levels, providing a comprehensive understanding of the determinants of child malnutrition. Overall, the utilisation of these statistical methodologies enhances the transparency and replicability of the study by providing clear and robust analytical frameworks for data analysis and interpretation. Our study reveals that NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 exhibit an equal density of severely stunted cases. NFHS-5 indicates a limited decline in wasting among children aged five, while the density of severely wasted children remains consistent across NFHS-3, 4, and 5. In 2019-21, women with higher empowerment had a lower risk of their children being undernourished (Regression coefficient= -0.10***; Confidence Interval [-0.18, -0.04]). Gender dynamics also play a significant role, with male children exhibiting a higher susceptibility to undernourishment. Multilevel analysis suggests household-level vulnerability (intra-class correlation=0.21), highlighting the need to address child undernutrition at the household level.

Keywords: child nutrition, India, NFHS, women’s empowerment

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Authors: Aditi Madan, Jayant Kumar Routray

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Purpose: Over the years flood related risks have compounded due to increasing vulnerability caused by rapid urbanisation and growing population. This increase is an indication of the need for enhancing the preparedness of institutions to respond to floods. The study describes disaster management structure and its linkages with institutions involved in managing disasters. It addresses issues and challenges associated with readiness of disaster management institutions to respond to floods. It suggests policy options for enhancing the current state of readiness of institutions to respond by considering factors like institutional, manpower, financial, technical, leadership & networking, training and awareness programs, monitoring and evaluation. Methodology: The study is based on qualitative data with statements and outputs from primary and secondary sources to understand the institutional framework for disaster management in India. Primary data included field visits, interviews with officials from institutions managing disasters and the affected community to identify the challenges faced in engaging national, state, district and local level institutions in managing disasters. For focus group discussions, meetings were held with district project officers and coordinators, local officials, community based organisation, civil defence volunteers and community heads. These discussions were held to identify the challenges associated with preparedness to respond of institutions to floods. Findings: Results show that disasters are handled by district authority and the role of local institutions is limited to a reactive role during disaster. Data also indicates that although the existing institutional setup is well coordinated at the district level but needs improvement at the local level. Wide variations exist in awareness and perception among the officials engaged in managing disasters. Additionally, their roles and responsibilities need to be clearly defined with adequate budget and dedicated permanent staff for managing disasters. Institutions need to utilise the existing manpower through proper delegation of work. Originality: The study suggests that disaster risk reduction needs to focus more towards inclusivity of the local urban bodies. Wide variations exist in awareness and perception among the officials engaged in managing disasters. In order to ensure community participation, it is important to address their social and economic problems since such issues can overshadow attempts made for reducing risks. Thus, this paper suggests development of direct linkages among institutions and community for enhancing preparedness to respond to floods.

Keywords: preparedness, response, disaster, flood, community, institution

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Authors: Jiro Takagi

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Approximately 90 percent of the casualties in the near-fault-type Kobe earthquake in 1995 resulted from the collapse of wooden houses, although a limited number of collapses of this type of building were reported in the more recent off-shore-type Tohoku Earthquake in 2011 (excluding direct damage by the Tsunami). Kumamoto earthquake in 2016 also revealed the vulnerability of old wooden houses in Japan. There are approximately 24.5 million wooden houses in Japan and roughly 40 percent of them are considered to have the inadequate seismic-resisting capacity. Therefore, seismic strengthening of these wooden houses is an urgent task. However, it has not been quickly done for various reasons, including cost and inconvenience during the reinforcing work. Residents typically spend their money on improvements that more directly affect their daily housing environment (such as interior renovation, equipment renewal, and placement of thermal insulation) rather than on strengthening against extremely rare events such as large earthquakes. Considering this tendency of residents, a new approach to developing a seismic strengthening method for wooden houses is needed. The seismic reinforcement method developed in this research uses folded galvanized thin steel plates as both shear walls and the new exterior architectural finish. The existing finish is not removed. Because galvanized steel plates are aesthetic and durable, they are commonly used in modern Japanese buildings on roofs and walls. Residents could feel a physical change through the reinforcement, covering existing exterior walls with steel plates. Also, this exterior reinforcement can be installed with only outdoor work, thereby reducing inconvenience for residents since they would not be required to move out temporarily during construction. The Durability of the exterior is enhanced, and the reinforcing work can be done efficiently since perfect water protection is not required for the new finish. In this method, the entire exterior surface would function as shear walls and thus the pull-out force induced by seismic lateral load would be significantly reduced as compared with a typical reinforcement scheme of adding braces in selected frames. Consequently, reinforcing details of anchors to the foundations would be less difficult. In order to attach the exterior galvanized thin steel plates to the houses, new wooden beams are placed next to the existing beams. In this research, steel connections between the existing and new beams are developed, which contain a gap for the existing finish between the two beams. The thin steel plates are screwed to the new beams and the connecting vertical members. The seismic-resisting performance of the shear walls with thin steel plates is experimentally verified both for the frames and connections. It is confirmed that the performance is high enough for bracing general wooden houses.

Keywords: experiment, seismic reinforcement, thin steel plates, wooden houses

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Authors: Olubisi Friday Oluduro

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The Paris Agreement 2015, the result of negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), after Kyoto Protocol expiration, sets a long-term goal of limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and of pursuing efforts to limiting this temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. An advancement on the erstwhile Kyoto Protocol which sets commitments to only a limited number of Parties to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, it includes the goal to increase the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and to make finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low GHGs emissions. For it achieve these goals, the Agreement requires all Parties to undertake efforts towards reaching global peaking of GHG emissions as soon as possible and towards achieving a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks in the second half of the twenty-first century. In addition to climate change mitigation, the Agreement aims at enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing the vulnerability to climate change in different parts of the world. It acknowledges the importance of addressing loss and damage associated with the adverse of climate change. The Agreement also contains comprehensive provisions on support to be provided to developing countries, which includes finance, technology transfer and capacity building. To ensure that such supports and actions are transparent, the Agreement contains a number reporting provisions, requiring parties to choose the efforts and measures that mostly suit them (Nationally Determined Contributions), providing for a mechanism of assessing progress and increasing global ambition over time by a regular global stocktake. Despite the somewhat global look of the Agreement, it has been fraught with manifold limitations threatening its very existential capability to produce any meaningful result. Considering these obvious limitations some of which were the very cause of the failure of its predecessor—the Kyoto Protocol—such as the non-participation of the United States, non-payment of funds into the various coffers for appropriate strategic purposes, among others. These have left the developing countries largely threatened eve the more, being more vulnerable than the developed countries, which are really responsible for the climate change scourge. The paper seeks to examine the mitigation and adaptation measures under the Paris Agreement 2015, appraise the present situation since the Agreement was concluded and ascertain whether the developing countries have been better or worse off since the Agreement was concluded, and examine why and how, while projecting a way forward in the present circumstance. It would conclude with recommendations towards ameliorating the situation.

Keywords: mitigation, adaptation, climate change, Paris agreement 2015, framework

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Authors: Ravi Kant Anand, Nikkey Keshri

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The Great Barrier Reef of Australia is known for its beautiful landscapes and seascapes with ecological importance. This site was selected as a World Heritage site in 1981 and popularized internationally for tourism, recreational activities and fishing. But the major environmental hazards such as climate change, pollution, overfishing and shipping are making worst the site of marine ecosystem. Climate change is directly hitting on Great Barrier Reef through increasing level of sea, acidification of ocean, increasing in temperature, uneven precipitation, changes in the El Nino and increasing level of cyclones and storms. Apart from that pollution is second biggest factor which vanishing the coral reef ecosystem. Pollution including over increasement of pesticides and chemicals, eutrophication, pollution through mining, sediment runoff, loss of coastal wetland and oil spills. Coral bleaching is the biggest problem because of the environmental threatening agents. Acidification of ocean water reduced the formation of calcium carbonate skeleton. The floral ecosystem (including sea grasses and mangroves) of ocean water is the key source of food for fishes and other faunal organisms but the powerful waves, extreme temperature, destructive storms and river run- off causing the threat for them. If one natural system is under threat, it means the whole marine food web is affected from algae to whale. Poisoning of marine water through different polluting agents have been affecting the production of corals, breeding of fishes, weakening of marine health and increased in death of fishes and corals. In lieu of World Heritage site, tourism sector is directly affected and causing increasement in unemployment. Fishing sector also affected. Fluctuation in the temperature of ocean water affects the production of corals because it needs desolate place, proper sunlight and temperature up to 21 degree centigrade. But storms, El Nino, rise in temperature and sea level are induced for continuous reduction of the coral production. If we do not restrict the environmental problems of Great Barrier Reef than the best known ecological beauty with coral reefs, pelagic environments, algal meadows, coasts and estuaries, mangroves forests and sea grasses, fish species, coral gardens and the one of the best tourist spots will lost in upcoming years. My research will focus on the different environmental threats, its socio-economic impacts and different conservative measures.

Keywords: climate change, overfishing, acidification, eutrophication

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Authors: Mohsen Hababalahi, Morteza Bastami

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Buried pipeline damage correlations are critical part of loss estimation procedures applied to lifelines for future earthquakes. The vulnerability of buried pipelines against earthquake and liquefaction has been observed during some of previous earthquakes and there are a lot of comprehensive reports about this event. One of the main reasons for impairment of buried pipelines during earthquake is liquefaction. Necessary conditions for this phenomenon are loose sandy soil, saturation of soil layer and earthquake intensity. Because of this fact that pipelines structure are very different from other structures (being long and having light mass) by paying attention to the results of previous earthquakes and compare them with other structures, it is obvious that the danger of liquefaction for buried pipelines is not high risked, unless effective parameters like earthquake intensity and non-dense soil and other factors be high. Recent liquefaction researches for buried pipeline include experimental and theoretical ones as well as damage investigations during actual earthquakes. The damage investigations have revealed that a damage ratio of pipelines (Number/km ) has much larger values in liquefied grounds compared with one in shaking grounds without liquefaction according to damage statistics during past severe earthquakes, and that damages of joints and pipelines connected with manholes were remarkable. The purpose of this research is numerical study of buried pipelines under the effect of liquefaction by case study of the 2013 Dashti (Iran) earthquake. Water supply and electrical distribution systems of this township interrupted during earthquake and water transmission pipelines were damaged severely due to occurrence of liquefaction. The model consists of a polyethylene pipeline with 100 meters length and 0.8 meter diameter which is covered by light sandy soil and the depth of burial is 2.5 meters from surface. Since finite element method is used relatively successfully in order to solve geotechnical problems, we used this method for numerical analysis. For evaluating this case, some information like geotechnical information, classification of earthquakes levels, determining the effective parameters in probability of liquefaction, three dimensional numerical finite element modeling of interaction between soil and pipelines are necessary. The results of this study on buried pipelines indicate that the effect of liquefaction is function of pipe diameter, type of soil, and peak ground acceleration. There is a clear increase in percentage of damage with increasing the liquefaction severity. The results indicate that although in this form of the analysis, the damage is always associated to a certain pipe material, but the nominally defined “failures” include by failures of particular components (joints, connections, fire hydrant details, crossovers, laterals) rather than material failures. At the end, there are some retrofit suggestions in order to decrease the risk of liquefaction on buried pipelines.

Keywords: liquefaction, buried pipelines, lifelines, earthquake, finite element method

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Authors: Marko Živanović, Jovana Bjekić, Maša Vukčević Marković

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Professionals and volunteers involved in refugee protection and support are on a daily basis faced with people who have experienced numerous traumatic experiences and, as such, are subjected to secondary traumatization (ST). The aim of this study was to provide insight into risk factors for ST in helpers working with refugees in Serbia. A total of 175 participants working with refugees fulfilled: Secondary Traumatization Questionnaire, checklist of refugees’ traumatic experiences, Hopkins Symptoms Checklist (HSCL) assessing depression and anxiety symptoms, quality of life questionnaire (MANSA), HEXACO personality inventory, and COPE assessing coping mechanisms. In addition, participants provided information on work-related problems. Qualitative analysis of answers to the question about most difficult part of their job has shown that burnout-related issues are clustered around three recurrent topics that can be considered as the most prominent generators of stress, namely: ‘lack of organization and cooperation’, ‘not been able to do enough’, and ‘hard to take it and to process it’. Factor analysis (Maximum likelihood extraction, Promax rotation) have shown that ST comprises of two correlated factors (r = .533, p < .01), namely Psychological deficits and Intrusions. Results have shown that risk factor for ST could be find in three interrelated sources: 1) work-related problems; 2) personality-related risk factors and 3) clients’ traumatic experiences. Among personality related factors, it was shown that risk factor for Intrusions could be find in – high Emotionality (β = .221, p < .05), and Altruism (β = .322, p < .01), while low Extraversion (β = -.365, p < .01) represents risk factor for Psychological deficits. In addition, usage of maladaptive coping mechanisms –mental disengagement (r = .253, p < .01), behavioral disengagement (r = .274, p < .01), focusing on distress and venting of emotions (r = .220, p < .05), denial (r = .164, p < .05), and substance use (r = .232, p < .01) correlate with Psychological deficits while Intrusions corelate with Mental disengagement (r = .251, p < .01) and denial (r = .183, p < .05). Regarding clients’ traumatic experiences it was shown that both quantity of traumatic events in country of origin (for Deficits r = .226, p < .01; for Intrusions r = .174, p < .05) and in transit (for Deficits r = .288, p < .01), as well as certain content-related features of such experiences (especially experiences which are severely dislocated from ‘everyday reality’) are related to ST. In addition, Psychological deficits and Intrusions have shown to be accompanied by symptoms of depression (r = .760, p < .01; r = .552, p < .01) and anxiety (r = .740, p < .01; r = .447, p < .01) and overall lower life quality (r = -.454, p < .01; r = .256, p < .01). Results indicate that psychological vulnerability of persons who are working with traumatized individuals can be found in certain personality traits, and usage of maladaptive coping mechanisms, which disable one to deal with work-related issues, and to cope with quantity and quality of traumatic experiences they were faced with, affecting ones’ psychological well-being. Acknowledgement: This research was funded by IRC Serbia.

Keywords: mental health, refugees, secondary traumatization, traumatic experiences

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Authors: Neyzielle Ronnicque Cadiz

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The Philippine is a hotbed of disasters and is a locus of natural hazards. With an average of 20 typhoons entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year, seven to eight (7-8) of which makes landfall. The country rather inevitably suffers from climate-related calamities. With this vulnerability to natural hazards, the relevant hazard-related issues that come along with the potential threat and occurrence of a disaster oftentimes garners lesser media attention than when a disaster actually occurred. Post-disaster news and events flood the content of news networks primarily focusing on, but not limited to, the efforts of the national government in resolving post-disaster displacement, and all the more on the community leaders’ incompetence in disaster mitigation-- even though the University of the Philippines’ NOAH Center work hand in hand with different stakeholders for disaster mitigation communication efforts. Disaster risk communication is actually a perennial dilemma. There are so many efforts to reach the grassroots level but emergency and disaster preparedness messages inevitably fall short.. The Philippines is very vulnerable to hazards risk and disasters but social media posts and communication efforts mostly go unnoticed, if not argued upon. This study illustrates the outcomes of a research focusing on the print, broadcast, and social media’s role on disaster communication involving the natural catastrophic events that took place in the Philippines from 2009 to present. Considering the country’s state of development, this study looks on the rapid and reliable communication between the government, and the relief/rescue workers in the affected regions; and how the media portrays these efforts effectively. Learning from the disasters that have occurred in the Philippines over the past decade, effective communication can ensure that any efforts to prepare and respond to disasters can make a significant difference. It can potentially either break or save lives. Recognizing the role of communications is not only in improving the coordination of vital services for post disaster; organizations gave priority in reexamining disaster preparedness mechanisms through the Communication with Communities (CwC) programs. This study, however, looks at the CwC efforts of the Philippine media platforms. CwC, if properly utilized by the media, is an essential tool in ensuring accountability and transparency which require effective exchange of information between disasters and survivors and responders. However, in this study, it shows that the perennial dilemma of the Philippine media is that the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) efforts of the country lie in the clouded judgment of political aims. This kind of habit is a multiplier of the country’s risk and insecurity. Sometimes the efforts in urging the public to take action seem useless because the challenge lies on how to achieve social, economic, and political unity using the tri-media platform.

Keywords: Philippines at risk, pre/post disaster communication, tri-media platform, UP NOAH

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Authors: Farah Islam, Md. Monirul Islam, Mosammat Salma Akter, Goutam Kumar Kundu

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The continuous variability of climate and the risk associated with it have a significant impact on the fisheries leading to a global concern for about half a billion fishery-based livelihoods. Though in the context of Bangladesh mounting evidence on the impacts of climate change on fishery-based livelihoods or their socioeconomic conditions are present, the country’s inland fisheries sector remains in a negligible corner as compared to the coastal areas which are spotted on the highlight due to its higher vulnerability to climatic hazards. The available research on inland fisheries, particularly river fisheries, has focussed mainly on fish production, pollution, fishing gear, fish biodiversity and livelihoods of the fishers. This study assesses the impacts of climate variability and changes on the Jamuna (a transboundary river called Brahmaputra in India) River fishing communities and their coping and adaptation strategies. This study has used primary data collected from Kalitola Ghat and Debdanga fishing communities of the Jamuna River during May, August and December 2015 using semi-structured interviews, oral history interviews, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and impact matrix as well as secondary data. This study has found that both communities are exposed to storms, floods and land erosions which impact on fishery-based livelihood assets, strategies, and outcomes. The impact matrix shows that human and physical capitals are more affected by climate hazards which in turn affect financial capital. Both communities have been responding to these exposures through multiple coping and adaptation strategies. The coping strategies include making dam with soil, putting jute sac on the yard, taking shelter on boat or embankment, making raised platform or ‘Kheua’ and involving with temporary jobs. While, adaptation strategies include permanent migration, change of livelihood activities and strategies, changing fishing practices and making robust houses. The study shows that migration is the most common adaptation strategy for the fishers which resulted in mostly positive outcomes for the migrants. However, this migration has impacted negatively on the livelihoods of existing fishers in the communities. In sum, the Jamuna river fishing communities have been impacted by several climatic hazards and they have traditionally coped with or adapted to the impacts which are not sufficient to maintain sustainable livelihoods and fisheries. In coming decades, this situation may become worse as predicted by latest scientific research and an enhanced level of response would be needed.

Keywords: climatic hazards, impacts and adaptation, fisherfolk, the Jamuna River

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Authors: Rebecca Bach, Evgenia Kanli, Nihat Kiziltoprak, Linda Hildebrand, Ulrich Knaack, Jens Schneider

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The building industry has a high demand for resources and at the same time is responsible for a significant amount of waste created worldwide. Today's building components need to contribute to the protection of natural resources without creating waste. This is defined in the product development phase and impacts the product’s degree of being cycle-oriented. Paper-based materials show advantage due to their renewable origin and their ability to incorporate different functions. Besides the ecological aspects like renewable origin and recyclability the main advantages of paper materials are its light-weight but stiff structure, the optimized production processes and good insulation values. The main deficits from building technology’s perspective are the material's vulnerability to humidity and water as well as inflammability. On material level, those problems can be solved by coatings or through material modification. On construction level intelligent setup and layering of a building component can improve and also solve these issues. The target of the present work is to provide an overview of developed building components and construction typologies mainly made from paper materials. The research is structured in four parts: (1) functions and requirements, (2) preselection of paper-based materials, (3) development of building components and (4) evaluation. As part of the research methodology at first the needs of the building sector are analyzed with the aim to define the main areas of application and consequently the requirements. Various paper materials are tested in order to identify to what extent the requirements are satisfied and determine potential optimizations or modifications, also in combination with other construction materials. By making use of the material’s potentials and solving the deficits on material and on construction level, building components and construction typologies are developed. The evaluation and the calculation of the structural mechanics and structural principals will show that different construction typologies can be derived. Profiles like paper tubes can be used at best for skeleton constructions. Massive structures on the other hand can be formed by plate-shaped elements like solid board or honeycomb. For insulation purposes corrugated cardboard or cellulose flakes have the best properties, while layered solid board can be applied to prevent inner condensation. Enhancing these properties by material combinations for instance with mineral coatings functional constructions mainly out of paper materials were developed. In summary paper materials offer a huge variety of possible applications in the building sector. By these studies a general base of knowledge about how to build with paper was developed and is to be reinforced by further research.

Keywords: construction typologies, cycle-oriented construction, innovative building material, paper materials, renewable resources

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Authors: Zhao Jiashen, Serene Goh, Jerry Goo, Anthony Li, Lim Woan Wui, Paul Drakeford, Chen Qing Yan

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Introduction: Emergency laparotomy (EL) is one of the most common surgeries done in Singapore to treat acute abdominal pathologies. A significant proportion of these surgeries are performed in the geriatric population (65 years and older), who tend to have the highest postoperative morbidity, mortality, and highest utilization of intensive care resources. Frailty, the state of vulnerability to adverse outcomes from an accumulation of physiological deficits, has been shown to be associated with poorer outcomes after surgery and remains a strong driver of healthcare utilization and costs. To date, there is little understanding of the impact it has on emergency laparotomy outcomes. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of frailty on postoperative morbidity, mortality, and length of stay after EL. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted in two tertiary centres in Singapore, Tan Tock Seng Hospital and Khoo Teck Puat Hospital the period from January to December 2019. Patients aged 65 years and above who underwent emergency laparotomy for intestinal obstruction, perforated viscus, bowel ischaemia, adhesiolysis, gastrointestinal bleed, or another suspected acute abdomen were included. Laparotomies performed for trauma, cholecystectomy, appendectomy, vascular surgery, and non-GI surgery were excluded. The Clinical Frailty Score (CFS) developed by the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) was used. A score of 1 to 4 was defined as non-frail and 5 to 7 as frail. We compared the clinical outcomes of elderly patients in the frail and non-frail groups. Results: There were 233 elderly patients who underwent EL during the study period. Up to 26.2% of patients were frail. Patients who were frail (CFS 5-9) tend to be older, 79 ± 7 vs 79 ± 5 years of age, p <0.01. Gender distribution was equal in both groups. Indication for emergency laparotomies, time from diagnosis to surgery, and presence of consultant surgeons and anaesthetists in the operating theatre were comparable (p>0.05). Patients in the frail group were more likely to receive postoperative geriatric assessment than in the non-frail group, 49.2% vs. 27.9% (p<0.01). The postoperative complications were comparable (p>0.05). The length of stay in the critical care unit was longer for the frail patients, 2 (IQR 1-6.5) versus 1 (IQR 0-4) days, p<0.01. Frailty was found to be an independent predictor of 90-day mortality but not age, OR 2.9 (1.1-7.4), p=0.03. Conclusion: Up to one-fourth of the elderly who underwent EL were frail. Patients who were frail were associated with a longer length of stay in the critical care unit and a 90-day mortality rate of more than three times that of their non-frail counterparts. PPOSSUM was a better predictor of 90-day mortality in the non-frail group than in the frail group. As frailty scoring was a significant predictor of 90-day mortality, its integration into acute surgical units to facilitate shared decision-making and discharge planning should be considered.

Keywords: frailty elderly, emergency, laparotomy

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Authors: Lakshmidevi Sreeramareddy, Komalpreet Kaur, Nane Pothier

Abstract:

Graphical-based passwords have existed for decades. Their major advantage is that they are easier to remember than an alphanumeric password. However, their disadvantage (especially recognition-based passwords) is the smaller password space, making them more vulnerable to brute force attacks. Graphical passwords are also highly susceptible to the shoulder-surfing effect. The gesture-based password method that we developed is a grid-free, template-free method. In this study, we evaluated the gesture-based passwords for usability and vulnerability. The results of the study are significant. We developed a gesture-based password application for data collection. Two modes of data collection were used: Creation mode and Replication mode. In creation mode (Session 1), users were asked to create six different passwords and reenter each password five times. In replication mode, users saw a password image created by some other user for a fixed duration of time. Three different duration timers, such as 5 seconds (Session 2), 10 seconds (Session 3), and 15 seconds (Session 4), were used to mimic the shoulder-surfing attack. After the timer expired, the password image was removed, and users were asked to replicate the password. There were 74, 57, 50, and 44 users participated in Session 1, Session 2, Session 3, and Session 4 respectfully. In this study, the machine learning algorithms have been applied to determine whether the person is a genuine user or an imposter based on the password entered. Five different machine learning algorithms were deployed to compare the performance in user authentication: namely, Decision Trees, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Naive Bayes Classifier, Support Vector Machines (SVMs) with Gaussian Radial Basis Kernel function, and K-Nearest Neighbor. Gesture-based password features vary from one entry to the next. It is difficult to distinguish between a creator and an intruder for authentication. For each password entered by the user, four features were extracted: password score, password length, password speed, and password size. All four features were normalized before being fed to a classifier. Three different classifiers were trained using data from all four sessions. Classifiers A, B, and C were trained and tested using data from the password creation session and the password replication with a timer of 5 seconds, 10 seconds, and 15 seconds, respectively. The classification accuracies for Classifier A using five ML algorithms are 72.5%, 71.3%, 71.9%, 74.4%, and 72.9%, respectively. The classification accuracies for Classifier B using five ML algorithms are 69.7%, 67.9%, 70.2%, 73.8%, and 71.2%, respectively. The classification accuracies for Classifier C using five ML algorithms are 68.1%, 64.9%, 68.4%, 71.5%, and 69.8%, respectively. SVMs with Gaussian Radial Basis Kernel outperform other ML algorithms for gesture-based password authentication. Results confirm that the shorter the duration of the shoulder-surfing attack, the higher the authentication accuracy. In conclusion, behavioral features extracted from the gesture-based passwords lead to less vulnerable user authentication.

Keywords: authentication, gesture-based passwords, machine learning algorithms, shoulder-surfing attacks, usability

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Authors: Sima Hajiazizi

Abstract:

Tehran is a capital of Iran, with the capitals of the world to natural disasters such as earthquake and flood vulnerable has known. City has stated on three faults, Ray, Mosha, and north according to report of JICA in 2000, the most casualties and destruction was the result of active fault Ray. In 2003, the prevention and management of crisis in Tehran to conduct prevention and rehabilitation of the city, under the Ministry has active. Given the breadth and lack of appropriate access in the city, was considered decentralized management for crisis management support, in each region, in order to position the crisis management headquarters at the time of crises and implementation of programs for prevention and education of the citizens and also to position the bases given in some areas of the neighboring provinces at the time of the accident for help and a number of databases to store food and equipment needed at the time of the disaster. In this study, the bases for one, six, nine and eleven regions of Tehran in the field of management and training are evaluated. Selected areas had local accident and experience of practice for disaster management and local training has been experiencing challenges. The research approach was used qualitative research methods underlying Ground theory. At first, the information obtained through the study of documents and Semi-structured interviews by administrators, officials of training and participant observation in the classroom, line by line, and then it was coded in two stages, by comparing and questioning concepts, categories and extract according to the indicators is obtained from literature studies, subjects were been central. Main articles according to the frequency and importance of the phenomenon were called and they were drawn diagram paradigm and at the end with the intersections phenomena and their causes with indicators extracted from the texts, approach each phenomenon and the effectiveness of the bases was measured. There are two phenomenons in management; 1. The inability to manage the vast and complex crisis events and to resolve minor incidents due to the mismatch between managers. 2. Weaknesses in the implementation of preventive measures and preparedness to manage crisis is causal of situations, fields and intervening. There are five phenomenons in the field of education; 1. In the six-region participation and interest is high. 2. In eleven-region training partnerships for crisis management were to low that next by maneuver in schools and local initiatives such as advertising and use of aid groups have increased. 3. In nine-region, contributions to education in the area of crisis management at the beginning were low that initiatives like maneuver in schools and communities to stimulate and increase participation have increased sensitivity. 4. Managers have been disagreement with the same training in all areas. Finally for the issues that are causing the main issues, with the help of concepts extracted from the literature, recommendations are provided.

Keywords: crises management, crisis management support bases, vulnerability, crisis management headquarters, prevention

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: F. L. Benu, I. W. Mudita, R. L. Natonis

Abstract:

East Nusa Tenggara, together with part of East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku, has been included as part of global drylands defined according to the ratio of annual precipitation (P) and annual potential evaporation (PET) and major vegetation types of grassland and savannah ecosystems. These tropical drylands are unique because, whereas drylands in other countries are mostly continental, here they are archipelagic. These archipelagic drylands are also unique in terms of being included because of more on their major vegetation types than of their P/PET ratio. Slash-and-burn cultivation and free roaming animal husbandry are two major livelihoods being widely practiced, along with alternative seasonal livelihood such as traditional fishing. Such livelihoods are vulnerable in various respects, especially because of drought, which becomes more unpredictable in the face of climate changes. To cope with such vulnerability, semi-intensive farming using drip irrigation is implemented as an appropriate technology with the goal of promoting a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods. The implementation was started in 2016 with a pilot system at the university field laboratory in Kupang in which various designs of installation were tested. The modified system consisting of an uplifted water reservoir and solar-powered pump was tested in Papela, the District of Rote-Ndao, in 2017 to convince fishermen who had been involved in illegal fishing in Australia-Indonesia transboundary waters, to adopt small-scale farming as a more sustainable alternative to their existing livelihoods. The system was again tested in a larger coverage in Oesena, the District of Kupang, in 2018 to convince slash-and-burn cultivators to adopt an environmentally friendlier cultivation system. From the implementation of the modified system in both sites, the participating fishermen in Papela were able to manage the system under tight water supply to grow chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon and the slash-and-burn cultivators in Oesena to grow chili pepper in a more efficient water use than water use in a conventional irrigation system. The gross margin obtained from growing chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon in Papela and from growing chili pepper in Oesena showed that small-scale farming using drip irrigation system was a promising alternative to local people in generating cash income to support their livelihoods. However, before promoting this appropriate technology as a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods elsewhere in the region, better understanding on social-related contexts of the implementation is needed.

Keywords: archipelagic drylands, drip irrigation system, East Nusa Tenggara, sustainable livelihoods

Procedia PDF Downloads 114