Search results for: stochastic uncertainty analysis

Authors: Benjamin Sonnenreich

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Brittle fracture failure probability is best described using a stochastic approach which is based on the 'weakest link concept' and the connection between a microstructure and macroscopic fracture scale. A general theoretical and experimental framework is presented to predict the uniaxial strength distribution according to independent uniaxial test data. The framework takes as input the applied stresses, the geometry, the materials, the defect distributions and the relevant random variables from uniaxial test results and gives as output an overall failure probability that can be used to improve the reliability of practical designs. Additionally, the method facilitates comparisons of strength data from several sources, uniaxial tests, and sample geometries.

Keywords: brittle fracture, strength distribution, uniaxial, weakest link concept

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Authors: Shu Tao, Rong Wang, Huizhong Shen, Ye Huang

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High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion is essential for reducing uncertainties in assessments of greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Such inventories provide valuable information for inferring carbon sinks, modeling pollutant transport, and developing control strategies. Previous inventories included only a few fuel types and were derived using national population proxies which may distort the geographical variation within countries. In this study, a global 0.1 degree by 0.1 degree geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL-2007) was developed for 64 fuel sub-types along with uncertainty analysis for the year 2007. Sub-national fuel consumption of large countries and major power-station locations were used. The disaggregation error can be reduced significantly by using the sub-nationally energy data, because the uneven distribution of per-capita fuel consumption within countries is taken into consideration. The PKU-FUEL was used to generate global emission inventories of CO2 (PKU-CO2-2007), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PKU-PAHs-2007), and black carbons (PKU-BC-2007). Atmospheric transport modeling and expsoure assessment were conducted for BC and PAHs based on the inventory.

Keywords: fuel, emission, BC, PAHs, atmospheric transport, exposure

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Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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Authors: Sahand Golmohammadi, Sana Hosseini Shirazi

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Because the status and mechanical parameters of discontinuities in the rock mass are included in the calculations, various methods of rock engineering classification are often used as a starting point for the design of different types of structures. The Q-system is one of the most frequently used methods for stability analysis and determination of support systems of underground structures in rock, including tunnel. In this method, six main parameters of the rock mass, namely, the rock quality designation (RQD), joint set number (Jn), joint roughness number (Jr), joint alteration number (Ja), joint water parameter (Jw) and stress reduction factor (SRF) are required. In this regard, in order to achieve a reasonable and optimal design, identifying the effective parameters for the stability of the mentioned structures is one of the most important goals and the most necessary actions in rock engineering. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between the parameters of a system and how they interact with each other and, ultimately, the whole system. In this research, it has attempted to determine the most effective parameters (key parameters) from the six parameters of rock mass in the Q-system using the rock engineering system (RES) method to improve the relationships between the parameters in the calculation of the Q value. The RES system is, in fact, a method by which one can determine the degree of cause and effect of a system's parameters by making an interaction matrix. In this research, the geomechanical data collected from the water conveyor tunnel of Azad Dam were used to make the interaction matrix of the Q-system. For this purpose, instead of using the conventional methods that are always accompanied by defects such as uncertainty, the Q-system interaction matrix is coded using a technique that is actually a statistical analysis of the data and determining the correlation coefficient between them. So, the effect of each parameter on the system is evaluated with greater certainty. The results of this study show that the formed interaction matrix provides a reasonable estimate of the effective parameters in the Q-system. Among the six parameters of the Q-system, the SRF and Jr parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively, and also the RQD and Jw parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively. Therefore, by developing this method, we can obtain a more accurate relation to the rock mass classification by weighting the required parameters in the Q-system.

Keywords: Q-system, rock engineering system, statistical analysis, rock mass, tunnel

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Authors: Bliss Singhal

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Epilepsy is a prevalent neurological disorder affecting approximately 50 million individuals worldwide and 1.2 million Americans. There exist millions of pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy, a condition in which seizures fail to come under control. The occurrence of seizures can result in physical injury, disorientation, unconsciousness, and additional symptoms that could impede children's ability to participate in everyday tasks. Predicting seizures can help parents and healthcare providers take precautions, prevent risky situations, and mentally prepare children to minimize anxiety and nervousness associated with the uncertainty of a seizure. This research proposes a comprehensive framework to predict seizures in pediatric patients by evaluating machine learning algorithms on unimodal neuroimaging data consisting of electroencephalogram signals. The bandpass filtering and independent component analysis proved to be effective in reducing the noise and artifacts from the dataset. Various machine learning algorithms’ performance is evaluated on important metrics such as accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score and MCC. The results show that the deep learning algorithms are more successful in predicting seizures than logistic Regression, and k nearest neighbors. The recurrent neural network (RNN) gave the highest precision and F1 Score, long short-term memory (LSTM) outperformed RNN in accuracy and convolutional neural network (CNN) resulted in the highest Specificity. This research has significant implications for healthcare providers in proactively managing seizure occurrence in pediatric patients, potentially transforming clinical practices, and improving pediatric care.

Keywords: intractable epilepsy, seizure, deep learning, prediction, electroencephalogram channels

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Authors: A. Golshani, M. Gharizade Varnusefaderani, S. Majidian

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Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

Keywords: NATM, surface displacement history, numerical back-analysis, geotechnical parameters

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Authors: A. Abbasi Moshaii, M. Soltan Rezaee, M. Mohammadi Moghaddam

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Control of some mechanisms is hard because of their complex dynamic equations. If part of the complexity is resulting from uncertainties, an efficient way for solving that is robust control. By this way, the control procedure could be simple and fast and finally, a simple controller can be designed. One kind of these mechanisms is 3-RRR which is a parallel mechanism and has three revolute joints. This paper aims to robust control a 3-RRR planner mechanism and it presents that this could be used for other mechanisms. So, a significant problem in mechanisms control could be solved. The relevant diagrams are drawn and they show the correctness of control process.

Keywords: 3-RRR, dynamic equations, mechanisms control, structural uncertainty

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Authors: Ran Etgar, Yuval Cohen, Erel Avineri

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One of the major challenges of transportation in medium sized inner-cities (such as Tel-Aviv) is the last-mile solution. Personal rapid transit (PRT) seems like an applicable candidate for this, as it combines the benefits of personal (car) travel with the operational benefits of transit. However, the investment required for large area PRT grid is significant and there is a need to economically justify such investment by correctly evaluating the grid capacity. PRT main elements are small automated vehicles (sometimes referred to as podcars) operating on a network of specially built guideways. The research is looking at a specific concept of elevated PRT system. Literature review has revealed the drawbacks PRT modelling and simulation approaches, mainly due to the lack of consideration of technical and operational features of the system (such as headways, acceleration, safety issues); the detailed design of infrastructure (guideways, stations, and docks); the stochastic and sessional characteristics of demand; and safety regulations – all of them have a strong effect on the system performance. A highly detailed model of the system, developed in this research, is applying a discrete event simulation combined with an agent-based approach, to represent the system elements and the podecars movement logic. Applying a case study approach, the simulation model is used to study the capacity of the system, the expected throughput of the system, the utilization, and the level of service (journey time, waiting time, etc.).

Keywords: capacity, productivity measurement, PRT, simulation, transportation

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Authors: A. Bentabet, A. Aydin, N. Fenineche

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In this work, we try to determine the best analytical approximation of differential cross sections, used generally in Monte Carlo simulation, to study the electron/positron slowing down in solid targets in the energy range up to 10 keV. Actually, our comparative study was carried out on the angular distribution of the scattering angle, the elastic total and the first transport cross sections which are the essential quantities used generally in the electron/positron transport study by using both stochastic and deterministic methods. Indeed, the obtained results using the relativistic partial wave expansion method and the backscattering coefficient experimental data are used as criteria to evaluate the used model.

Keywords: differential cross-section, backscattering coefficient, Rutherford cross-section, Vicanek and Urbassek theory

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Authors: Zhou Jianhong

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Model averaging is a desirable approach to deal with model uncertainty, which, however, has rarely been explored for Poisson regression. In this paper, we propose a model averaging procedure based on an unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler distance for the Poisson regression. Simulation study shows that the proposed model average estimator outperforms some other commonly used model selection and model average estimators in some situations. Our proposed methods are further applied to a real data example and the advantage of this method is demonstrated again.

Keywords: model averaging, poission regression, Kullback-Leibler distance, statistics

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Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting

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Authors: S. Łęgowik-Świącik

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This article is a contribution to the research into the determinants of value creation via digital platforms in variable operating conditions. The dynamics of the market environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made enterprises built on digital platforms financially successful. While many classic companies are struggling with the uncertainty of conducting a business and difficulties in the process of value creation, digital platforms create value by modifying the existing business model to meet the changing needs of customers. Therefore, the objective of this publication is to understand and explain the relationship between value creation and the conversion of the business model built on digital platforms under pandemic conditions. The considerations relating to the conceptual framework and determining the research objective allowed for adopting the hypothesis, assuming that the processes of value creation are evolving, and the measurement of these processes allows for the protection of value created and enables its growth in changing circumstances. The research methods, such as critical literature analysis and case study, were applied to accomplish the objective pursued and verify the hypothesis formulated. The empirical research was carried out based on the data from enterprises listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange: Amazon, Alibaba, and Facebook. The research period was the years 2018-2021. The surveyed enterprises were chosen based on the targeted selection. The problem discussed is important and current since the lack of in-depth theoretical research results in few attempts to identify the determinants of value creation via digital platforms. The above arguments led to an attempt at theoretical analysis and empirical research to fill in the gap perceived by deepening the understanding of the process of value creation through network effects via digital platforms under pandemic conditions.

Keywords: business model, digital platforms, enterprise management, pandemic conditions, value creation process

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Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Raufu Olusola Sanusi

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This study determined the perceived effect of livelihood diversification on welfare of rural household in Niger state, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was adopted for sampling the respondents. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source. Structured questionnaire with interview schedule was administered to 180 randomly selected rural farmers in the study area. Descriptive statistics analysis and z-test statistics were used to analyse the data collected. The study revealed the mean age of the household to be 43 years, mean years of schooling was 8.5, mean household size was 6 people, mean farming experience of 17.5 years and mean farm size of 1.8 hectares. The effect of livelihood diversification revealed that livelihood diversification had positive and significant effect on food security (65.6%) and income generation (66.8%) in the study area. The major constraints to diversification in the study area were poor infrastructure, unavailability of credit and climatic risk and uncertainty. The study, therefore, recommended that rural household should be sensitised to diversify their income source into non-farm activities.

Keywords: income, livelihood diversification , rural household, welfare

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Authors: Mesias Alfeus, Kirsty Fitzhenry, Alessia Lederer

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The present paper provides empirical studies to estimate defaultable bonds in the South African financial market. The main goal is to estimate the unobservable factors affecting bond yields for South African major banks. The maximum likelihood approach is adopted for the estimation methodology. Extended Kalman filtering techniques are employed in order to tackle the situation that the factors cannot be observed directly. Multi-dimensional Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR)-type factor models are considered. Results show that default risk increased sharply in the South African financial market during COVID-19 and the CIR model with jumps exhibits a better performance.

Keywords: default intensity, unobservable state variables, CIR, α-CIR, extended kalman filtering

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Authors: Eylem G. Cengiz, Ersin Çilek, Gözde Başkaya, Havva Nur Taş

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It is possible to define the abuse and neglect of the child as a social problem. Such adverse experiences of the child are witnessed by wider social circles as well as his or her immediate environment. The most effective institution among these social circles is the school. The awareness of teachers, administrators, and even auxiliary personnel on this issue can act as a protective and preventive buffer because teachers have the opportunity to be with children every day and constantly observe them; therefore, they can notice the physical and mental changes in students. Furthermore, school administrators have an undeniable role in recognizing and responding to the risk of neglect and abuse. This study aims to evaluate the awareness of school administrators on the risk factors, clues, and ways of intervention towards abuse and neglect through the scenarios given to them. Data were collected from 37 primary, secondary, and high school administrators working in various provinces of Turkey through descriptive and scenario-based questions to determine their general knowledge of the concepts of neglect and abuse and their general tendencies towards practice. Descriptive questions were evaluated with content analysis, and scenario-based questions were evaluated with numerical qualitative data analysis. Concepts and themes were tried to be reached by content analysis from the descriptive data collected. When the results are evaluated in general, it is striking that the concept of child abuse means only sexual abuse for some school administrators. There is an important uncertainty for school administrators in the content of the idea of neglect. When the views on the causes of neglect and abuse are examined, the family factor was seen as the primary source of both neglect and abuse. In addition, among the prevention strategies applied by school administrators, intervention for the family -interviewing and informing- was recommended by only 9 (29%) out of 31 administrators. When the responses to the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse scenarios are examined, it is revealed that the administrators generally realize the abuse but fail to develop an appropriate/whole intervention method. The research results show that school administrators' awareness should be increased. Although administrators have sensitivity towards children, they should be empowered to recognize all types of neglect and abuse and develop appropriate intervention tools.

Keywords: assessment child abuse and neglect, child abuse, child neglect, school administrators

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Authors: Farhat Ullah

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It is very unfortunate that in Pakistani public schools political interference is on its peak. The present study tries to find out the effect of the interference of political elected members in the affairs of public schools. The objectives of the study were to find out, the degree of interference of political members in public school, the positive and negative effects of political members, influence in public schools, students, and its administrators. This study was quantitative in nature. All the public schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were the population of this study. A sample of 400 teachers and 100 schools heads were selected for this study. A survey questionnaire consisted of 50 items related to objectives, was used for this study. The questionnaire consisted of five options based on Likert scale. Data were collected by the researcher himself from the respondents. Data were analyzed using chi square test. It was concluded from the analysis of data that recently the political members are involved in the process of school activities, which had badly affected the freedom and autonomy of school administrators. Mostly teachers are transferred from schools on political influence, which had created uncertainty among the schools teachers. Further, the student’s academic performance was also affected badly. It is recommended that schools must be free from political involvement for the smooth running of schools.

Keywords: public schools, politics, interference, performance

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: F. Felipe

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Air Defense Systems contain high-value assets that are expected to fulfill their mission for several years - in many cases, even decades - while operating in a fast-changing, technology-driven environment. Thus, it is paramount that decision-makers can assess how effective an Air Defense System is in the face of new developing threats, as well as to identify the bottlenecks that could jeopardize the security of the airspace of a country. Given the broad extent of activities and the great variety of assets necessary to achieve the strategic objectives, a systems approach was taken in order to delineate the core requirements and the physical architecture of an Air Defense System. Then, value-focused thinking helped in the definition of the measures of effectiveness. Furthermore, analytical methods were applied to create a formal structure that preliminarily assesses such measures. To validate the proposed methodology, a powerful simulation was also used to determine the measures of effectiveness, now in more complex environments that incorporate both uncertainty and multiple interactions of the entities. The results regarding the validity of this methodology suggest that the approach can support decisions aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Air Defense Systems. In conclusion, this paper sheds some light on how consolidated approaches of Systems Engineering and Operations Research can be used as valid techniques for solving problems regarding a complex and yet vital matter.

Keywords: air defense, effectiveness, system, simulation, decision-support

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Authors: Amberly Brigden, Ali Heawood, Emma C. Anderson, Richard Morris, Esther Crawley

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Background: Paediatric chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)/myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) is characterised by persistent, disabling fatigue. Health services see patients below the age of 12. This age group experience high levels of disability, with low levels of school attendance, high levels of fatigue, anxiety, functional disability and pain. CFS/ME interventions have been developed for adolescents, but the developmental needs of younger children suggest treatment should be tailored to this age group. Little is known about how intervention should be delivered to this age group, and further work is needed to explore this. Qualitative research aids patient-centered design of health intervention. Methods: Five to 11-year-olds and their parents were recruited from a specialist CFS/ME service. Semi-structured interviews explored the families’ experience of the condition and perspectives on treatment. Interactive and arts-based methods were used. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Qualitative Results: 14 parents and 7 children were interviewed. Early analysis of the interviews revealed the importance of the social-ecological setting of the child, which led to themes being developed in the context of Systems Theory. Theme one relates to the level of the child, theme two the family system, theme three the organisational and societal systems, and theme four cuts-across all levels. Theme1: The child’s capacity to describe, understand and manage their condition. Younger children struggled to describe their internal experiences, such as physical symptoms. Parents felt younger children did not understand some concepts of CFS/ME and did not have the capabilities to monitor and self-regulate their behaviour, as required by treatment. A spectrum of abilities was described; older children (10-11-year-olds) were more involved in clinical sessions and had more responsibility for self-management. Theme2: Parents’ responsibility for managing their child’s condition. Parents took responsibility for regulating their child’s behaviour in accordance with the treatment programme. They structured their child’s environment, gave direct instructions to their child, and communicated the needs of their child to others involved in care. Parents wanted their child to experience a 'normal' childhood and took steps to shield their child from medicalization, including diagnostic labels and clinical discussions. Theme3: Parental isolation and the role of organisational and societal systems. Parents felt unsupported in their role of managing the condition and felt negative responses from primary care health services and schools were underpinned by a lack of awareness and knowledge about CFS/ME in younger children. This sometimes led to a protracted time to diagnosis. Parents felt that schools have the potential important role in managing the child’s condition. Theme4: Complexity and uncertainty. Many parents valued specialist treatment (which included activity management, physiotherapy, sleep management, dietary advice, medical management and psychological support), but felt it needed to account for the complexity of the condition in younger children. Some parents expressed uncertainty about the diagnosis and the treatment programme. Conclusions: Interventions for younger children need to consider the 'systems' (family, organisational and societal) involved in the child’s care. Future research will include interviews with clinicians and schools supporting younger children with CFS/ME.

Keywords: chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)/myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), pediatric, qualitative, treatment

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Authors: Dominique Arrouays, Songchao Chen, Anne C. Richer-De-Forges

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Soils are at the crossing of many issues such as food and water security, sustainable energy, climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity protection, human health and well-being. They deliver many ecosystem services that are essential to life on Earth. Therefore, there is a growing demand for soil information on a national and global scale. Unfortunately, many countries do not have detailed soil maps, and, when existing, these maps are generally based on more or less complex and often non-harmonized soil classifications. An estimate of their uncertainty is also often missing. Thus, there are not easy to understand and often not properly used by end-users. Therefore, there is an urgent need to provide end-users with spatially exhaustive grids of essential soil properties, together with an estimate of their uncertainty. One way to achieve this is digital soil mapping (DSM). The concept of DSM relies on the hypothesis that soils and their properties are not randomly distributed, but that they depend on the main soil-forming factors that are climate, organisms, relief, parent material, time (age), and position in space. All these forming factors can be approximated using several exhaustive spatial products such as climatic grids, remote sensing products or vegetation maps, digital elevation models, geological or lithological maps, spatial coordinates of soil information, etc. Thus, DSM generally relies on models calibrated with existing observed soil data (point observations or maps) and so-called “ancillary co-variates” that come from other available spatial products. Then the model is generalized on grids where soil parameters are unknown in order to predict them, and the prediction performances are validated using various methods. With the growing demand for soil information at a national and global scale and the increase of available spatial co-variates national and continental DSM initiatives are continuously increasing. This short review illustrates the main national and continental advances in Europe, the diversity of the approaches and the databases that are used, the validation techniques and the main scientific and other issues. Examples from several countries illustrate the variety of products that were delivered during the last ten years. The scientific production on this topic is continuously increasing and new models and approaches are developed at an incredible speed. Most of the digital soil mapping (DSM) products rely mainly on machine learning (ML) prediction models and/or the use or pedotransfer functions (PTF) in which calibration data come from soil analyses performed in labs or for existing conventional maps. However, some scientific issues remain to be solved and also political and legal ones related, for instance, to data sharing and to different laws in different countries. Other issues related to communication to end-users and education, especially on the use of uncertainty. Overall, the progress is very important and the willingness of institutes and countries to join their efforts is increasing. Harmonization issues are still remaining, mainly due to differences in classifications or in laboratory standards between countries. However numerous initiatives are ongoing at the EU level and also at the global level. All these progress are scientifically stimulating and also promissing to provide tools to improve and monitor soil quality in countries, EU and at the global level.

Keywords: digital soil mapping, global soil mapping, national and European initiatives, global soil mapping products, mini-review

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Authors: Tomáš Vyčítal

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In a simulation model of a railway system it is important, besides other crucial algorithms, to have correct behaviour of train overtaking in stochastic conditions. This problem is being addressed in many simulation tools focused on railway traffic, however these are not very human-realistic. The goal of this paper is to create a more human-realistic overtaking decision support system for the use in railway traffic simulations. A fuzzy system has been chosen for this task as fuzzy systems are well-suited for human-like decision making. The fuzzy system designed takes into account timetables, train positions, delays and buffer times as inputs and provides an instruction to overtake or not overtake.

Keywords: decision-making support, fuzzy systems, simulation, railway, transport

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Authors: E. T. Carvalho Filho, J. T. N. Medeiros, L. G. Martinez

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Residual stresses are self equilibrating in a rigid body that acts on the microstructure of the material without application of an external load. They are elastic stresses and can be induced by mechanical, thermal and chemical processes causing a deformation gradient in the crystal lattice favoring premature failure in mechanicals components. The search for measurements with good reliability has been of great importance for the manufacturing industries. Several methods are able to quantify these stresses according to physical principles and the response of the mechanical behavior of the material. The diffraction X-ray technique is one of the most sensitive techniques for small variations of the crystalline lattice since the X-ray beam interacts with the interplanar distance. Being very sensitive technique is also susceptible to variations in measurements requiring a study of the factors that influence the final result of the measurement. Instrumental, operational factors, form deviations of the samples and geometry of analyzes are some variables that need to be considered and analyzed in order for the true measurement. The aim of this work is to analyze the sources of errors inherent to the residual stress measurement process by X-ray diffraction technique making an interlaboratory comparison to verify the reproducibility of the measurements. In this work, two specimens were machined, differing from each other by the surface finishing: grinding and polishing. Additionally, iron powder with particle size less than 45 µm was selected in order to be a reference (as recommended by ASTM E915 standard) for the tests. To verify the deviations caused by the equipment, those specimens were positioned and with the same analysis condition, seven measurements were carried out at 11Ψ tilts. To verify sample positioning errors, seven measurements were performed by positioning the sample at each measurement. To check geometry errors, measurements were repeated for the geometry and Bragg Brentano parallel beams. In order to verify the reproducibility of the method, the measurements were performed in two different laboratories and equipments. The results were statistically worked out and the quantification of the errors.

Keywords: residual stress, x-ray diffraction, repeatability, reproducibility, error analysis

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Authors: Alfredo R. Roa-Henriquez

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This paper is about organizational-level resilience and decision-making in the face of natural hazards. Research on resilience emerged to explain systems’ ability to absorb and recover in the midst of adversity and uncertainty from natural disasters, crises, and other disruptive events. While interest in resilience has accelerated, research multiplied, and the number of policies and implementations of resilience to natural hazards has increased over the last several years, mainly at the level of communities and regions, there has been a dearth of empirical work on resilience at the level of the firm. This paper uses empirical data and a sample selection model to test some hypotheses related to the firm’s dependence on critical resources, the sharing of resources and its economic resilience. The objective is to understand how the sharing of resources among organizations is related to economic resilience. Empirical results that are obtained from a sample of firms affected by Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Harvey indicate that there is unobserved heterogeneity that explains the strategic behavior of firms in the post-disaster and that those firms that are more likely to resource share are also the ones that exhibit higher economic resilience. The impact of property damage on the sharing of resources and economic resilience is explored.

Keywords: economic resilience, resource sharing, critical resources, strategic management

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: D. Osborn, L. Easthope

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The increasing threat of ‘marauding terror,' utilising improvised explosive devices and firearms, has focused the attention of policy makers and emergency responders once again on the treatment of the critically injured patient in a highly volatile scenario. Whilst there have been significant improvements made in the response and lessons learned from recent disasters in the international disaster community there still remain areas of uncertainty and a lack of clarity in the care of the critically injured. This innovative, longitudinal study has at its heart the aim of using ethnographic methods to ‘slow down’ the journey such patients will take and make visible the ethical complexities that 2017 technologies, expectations and over a decade of improved combat medicine techniques have brought. The primary researcher, previously employed in the hospital emergency management environment, has closely followed responders as they managed casualties with life-threatening injuries. Ethnographic observation of Exercise Unified Response in March 2016, exposed the ethical and legal 'vacuums' within a mass casualty and fatality setting, specifically the extrication, treatment and care of critically injured patients from crushed and overturned train carriages. This article highlights a gap in the debate, evaluation, planning and response to an incident of this nature specifically the incapacitated, unidentified patients and the ethics of submitting them to the invasive ‘Disaster Victim Identification’ process. Using a qualitative ethnographic analysis, triangulating observation, interviews and documentation, this analysis explores the gaps and highlights the next stages in the researcher’s pathway as she continues to explore with emergency practitioners some of this century’s most difficult questions in relation to the medico-legal and ethical challenges faced by emergency services in the wake of new and emerging threats and medical treatment expectations.

Keywords: ethics, disaster, Disaster Victim Identification (DVI), legality, unidentified

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Marin Senila, Oana Cadar, Thorsten Janisch, Patrick Lacroix-Desmazes

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The study presents the analytical capability and validation of a method based on microwave-assisted acid digestion for quantitative determination of platinum and palladium in catalysts using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP-OES). In order to validate the method, the main figures of merit such as limit of detection and limit of quantification, precision and accuracy were considered and the measurement uncertainty was estimated based on the bottom-up approach according to the international guidelines of ISO/IEC 17025. Limit of detections, estimated from blank signal using 3 s criterion, were 3.0 mg/kg for Pt and respectively 3.6 mg/kg for Pd, while limits of quantification were 9.0 mg/kg for Pt and respectively 10.8 mg/kg for Pd. Precisions, evaluated as standard deviations of repeatability (n=5 parallel samples), were less than 10% for both precious metals. Accuracies of the method, verified by recovery estimation certified reference material NIST SRM 2557 - pulverized recycled monolith, were 99.4 % for Pt and 101% for Pd. The obtained limit of quantifications and accuracy were satisfactory for the intended purpose. The paper offers all the steps necessary to validate the determination method for Pt and Pd in catalysts using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry.

Keywords: catalyst analysis, ICP-OES, method validation, platinum, palladium

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Rawan K. Al-Duaij, Salem A. Al-Salem

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Projects, the unique and temporary process of achieving a set of requirements have always been challenging; Planning the schedule and budget, managing the resources and risks are mostly driven by a similar past experience or the technical consultations of experts in the matter. With that complexity of Projects in Scope, Time, and execution environment, Adjustment Orders are tools to reflect changes to the original project parameters after Contract signature. Adjustment Orders are the official/legal amendments to the terms and conditions of a live Contract. Reasons for issuing Adjustment Orders arise from changes in Contract scope, technical requirement and specification resulting in scope addition, deletion, or alteration. It can be as well a combination of most of these parameters resulting in an increase or decrease in time and/or cost. Most business leaders (handling projects in the interest of the owner) refrain from using Adjustment Orders considering their main objectives of staying within budget and on schedule. Success in managing the changes results in uninterrupted execution and agreed project costs as well as schedule. Nevertheless, this is not always practically achievable. In this paper, a detailed study through utilizing Industrial Engineering & Systems Management tools such as Six Sigma, Data Analysis, and Quality Control were implemented on the organization’s five years records of the issued Adjustment Orders in order to investigate their prevalence, and time and cost impact. The analysis outcome revealed and helped to identify and categorize the predominant causations with the highest impacts, which were considered most in recommending the corrective measures to reach the objective of minimizing the Adjustment Orders impacts. Data analysis demonstrated no specific trend in the AO frequency in past five years; however, time impact is more than the cost impact. Although Adjustment Orders might never be avoidable; this analysis offers’ some insight to the procedural gaps, and where it is highly impacting the organization. Possible solutions are concluded such as improving project handling team’s coordination and communication, utilizing a blanket service contract, and modifying the projects gate system procedures to minimize the possibility of having similar struggles in future. Projects in the Oil and Gas sector are always evolving and demand a certain amount of flexibility to sustain the goals of the field. As it will be demonstrated, the uncertainty of project parameters, in adequate project definition, operational constraints and stringent procedures are main factors resulting in the need for Adjustment Orders and accordingly the recommendation will be to address that challenge.

Keywords: adjustment orders, data analysis, oil and gas sector, systems management

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Jayanth Abishek Subramanian, Ramin Dabirian, Ilias Gavrielatos, Ram Mohan, Ovadia Shoham

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Downcomers are important conduits for multiphase flow transfer from offshore platforms to the seabed. Uncertainty in the predictions of the pressure drop of multiphase flow between platforms is often dominated by the uncertainty associated with the prediction of holdup and pressure drop in the downcomer. The objectives of this study are to conduct experimental and theoretical scale-up study of the downcomer. A 4-in. diameter vertical test section was designed and constructed to study two-phase flow in downcomer. The facility is equipped with baffles for flow area restriction, enabling interchangeable annular slot openings between 30% and 61.7%. Also, state-of-the-art instrumentation, the capacitance Wire-Mesh Sensor (WMS) was utilized to acquire the experimental data. A total of 76 experimental data points were acquired, including falling film under 30% and 61.7% annular slot opening for air-water and air-Conosol C200 oil cases as well as gas carry-under for 30% and 61.7% opening utilizing air-Conosol C200 oil. For all experiments, the parameters such as falling film thickness and velocity, entrained liquid holdup in the core, gas void fraction profiles at the cross-sectional area of the liquid column, the void fraction and the gas carry under were measured. The experimental results indicated that the film thickness and film velocity increase as the flow area reduces. Also, the increase in film velocity increases the gas entrainment process. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the increase of gas entrainment for the same liquid flow rate leads to an increase in the gas carry-under. A power comparison method was developed to enable evaluation of the Lopez (2011) model, which was created for full bore downcomer, with the novel scale-up experiment data acquired from the downcomer with the restricted area for flow. Comparison between the experimental data and the model predictions shows a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.9% and 21.8% for the falling film thickness and velocity, respectively; and a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.2% for fraction of gas carried with the liquid (oil).

Keywords: two phase flow, falling film, downcomer, wire-mesh sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Mazura Mokhtar, Adibah Shuib, Daud Mohamad

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Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.

Keywords: portfolio optimization, mathematical programming, multi-objective programming, solution approaches

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Ida Shafinaz Mohamed Kamil, Mohd Dahlan Abdul Malek

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Today, the whole world is facing a catastrophe called the novel coronavirus disease known as COVID-19. As of October 2021, it has been reported that more than 248 million cases and 5 million deaths have been recorded worldwide. In Malaysia, 2,466,663 cases were reported, with 28,876 deaths recorded on 30 October 2021. Unfortunately, the world is not only facing the COVID-19 pandemic but the COVID-19 infodemic as well, where fake news about COVID-19 disease is spreading faster and more widely than from the virus itself. The spread of fake news is amplified through various social media platforms, which is causing concern among the community. The uncertainty in understanding what fake news really is has caused difficulties and challenges in providing a solution to the hazards that it creates. This article discusses what constitutes fake news and examines the current legal framework put in place to combat fake news in Malaysia. Employing a doctrinal research methodology, this article thoroughly analyzes the relevant legal provisions under the Communications and Multimedia Act 1998, the Penal Code and the Emergency (Essential Powers) Ordinance (No.2) 2021, which came into force on 12 March 2021 as well as related case laws, for offenses and punishments with regards to fake news. The findings from the analysis indicate that there is still room for improvement in regulating fake news, in particular concerning COVID-19.

Keywords: fake news, legal pespective, covid 19, pendemic

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Alluri Swaroopa, L. V. N. Prasad

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Alone with fast urbanization in world, traffic control problem became a big issue in urban construction. Having an efficient and reliable traffic control system is crucial to macro-traffic control. Traffic signal is used to manage conflicting requirement by allocating different sets of mutually compatible traffic movement during distinct time interval. Many approaches have been made proposed to solve this discrete stochastic problem. Recognizing the need to minimize right-of-way impacts while efficiently handling the anticipated high traffic volumes, the proposed alternative system gives effective design. This model allows for increased traffic capacity and reduces delays by eliminating a step in maneuvering through the freeway interchange. The concept proposed in this paper involves construction of bridges and ramps at intersection of four roads to control the vehicular congestion and to prevent traffic breakdown.

Keywords: bridges, junctions, ramps, urban traffic control

Procedia PDF Downloads 553