Search results for: risk prioritization

Authors: Jean-Paul Kapuya Bulaba Nyembwe, John Omomoluwa Ogundiran, Manuel Carlos Gameiro da Silva

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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) remains a global concern because it impacts people's comfort, health, performance, and general well-being. People spend a significant amount of time in buildings or while commuting, hence ensuring the minimal risk in indoor spaces by ensuring suitable IEQ. IEQ studies are limited regarding developing sub-Saharan countries, whereas there is also a huge risk and concern for the current population and geometric growth as many cities in the region will become mega-cities by 2040 (World Bank report). The absence of suitable IEQ regulations and energy poverty are reasons to assess the IEQ gaps for increased awareness of sustainable interventions to minimize the associated risk. This study evaluates the gaps and potential hazards that exist in the IEQ of sub-Saharan countries using empirical studies of hospital occupants and BRT bus passengers and drivers. The Surveys were conducted in 3 cities of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Lagos metropolis of Nigeria. The results suggest that gaps exist in IEQ for these regions. The gaps indicate existential risk to people’s health, comfort, and well-being. The inferential conclusions are that there is a need for further scientific studies, improvement in IEQ conditions, and ensuring suitable regulations for developing sub-Saharan countries.

Keywords: health hazards, hospitals indoor environmental quality, indoor spaces, occupants, sub-Saharan countries, vehicles

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Authors: Avhasei Dorothy Rasifudi, Josephine Mandizha

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Cardiovascular risk factors continue to be the leading cause of death in the majority of developed and developing countries. In 2011, the World Health Organization reported that every year an estimated 17 million people globally die of CVD, representing 30% of all global deaths, particularly caused by heart attacks and strokes. The purpose of the study was to determine and describe the prevalence of selected cardiovascular risk factors among university of Venda staff. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 100 staff aged 20-65 years. The anthropometric measurements were conducted in accordance to and with standardized procedures advocated by the International Society for the Advanced Kinanthropometry. Weight, Height, waist circumference and hip circumference were measured for calculation of body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Blood pressure was measured using a Heine cuff and sphygmomanometer. Questionnaire was administered to gather demographic details and cardiovascular risk factors of hypertension and obesity. Data were analyzed using mean and standard deviation. The parameter t-test was applied to test significance level at p ≤ 0.05 between sexes. The statistical significance was set at p ≤ 0.05. The prevalence of hypertension was 23% with the highest prevalence amongst those aged 40 years and above. Factors found to be to be significantly associated with hypertension were gender, age, physical inactivity and family history. Prevalence of obesity was 43%, with the highest prevalence among those aged 40 years. The factors associated with obesity were diet, age and physical activity. The prevalence of hypertension and obesity in the study were high.

Keywords: cardiovascular, prevalence, risk factors, staff

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Authors: Maria Cherepanova, Svetlana Maximova

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Background And Aims: Suicide is among ten most common causes of death of the working-age population in the world. According to the WHO forecasts, by 2025 suicide will be the third leading cause of death, after cardiovascular diseases and cancer. In 2019, the global suicide rate in the world was 10,5 per 100,000 people. In Russia, the average figure was 11.6. However, in some depressed regions of Russia, such as Buryatia and Altai, it reaches 35.3. The aim of this study was to develop models based on the regional factors of social well-being deprivation that provoke the suicidal risk of various age groups of Russian population. We also investigated suicidal risk prevention in modern Russia, analyzed its efficacy, and developed recommendations for suicidal risk prevention improvement. Methods: In this study, we analyzed the data from sociological surveys from six regions of Russia. Totally we interviewed 4200 people, the age of the respondents was from 16 to 70 years. The results were subjected to factorial and regression analyzes. Results: The results of our study indicate that young people are especially socially vulnerable, which result in ineffective patterns of self-preservation behavior and increase the risk of suicide. That is due to lack of anti-suicidal barriers formation; low importance of vital values; the difficulty or impossibility to achieve basic needs; low satisfaction with family and professional life; and decrease in personal unconditional significance. The suicidal risk of the middle-aged population is due to a decrease in social well-being in the main aspects of life, which determines low satisfaction, decrease in ontological security, and the prevalence of auto-aggressive deviations. The suicidal risk of the elderly population is due to increased factors of social exclusion which result in narrowing the social space and limiting the richness of life. Conclusions: The existing system for lowering suicide risk in modern Russia is predominantly oriented to a medical treatment, which provides only intervention to people who already committed suicide, that significantly limits its preventive effectiveness and social control of this deviation. The national strategy for suicide risk reduction in modern Russian society should combine medical and social activities, designed to minimize possible situations resulting to suicide. The strategy for elimination of suicidal risk should include a systematic and significant improvement of the social well-being of the population and aim at overcoming the basic aspects of social disadvantages such as poverty, unemployment as well as implementing innovative mental health improvement, developing life-saving behavior that will help to counter suicides in Russia.

Keywords: social factors, suicide, prevention, Russia

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Authors: Yahya Lavafpour, Steve Sharples

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This study investigated the potential negative impacts of future UK climate change on dwellings. In particular, the risk of overheating was considered for a Passivhaus dwelling in London. The study used dynamic simulation modelling software to investigate the potential use of building geometry to control current and future overheating risks in the dwelling for London climate. Specifically, the focus was on the optimum inclination of a south façade to make use of the building’s shape to self-protect itself. A range of different inclined façades were examined to test their effectiveness in reducing the overheating risk. The research found that implementing a 115° tilted façade could completely eliminate the risk of overheating in current climate, but with some consequence for natural ventilation and daylighting. Future overheating was significantly reduced by the tilted façade. However, geometric considerations could not eradicate completely the risk of overheating particularly by the 2080s. The study also used CFD modelling and sensitivity analysis to investigate the effect of the façade geometry on the wind pressure distributions on and around the building surface. This was done to assess natural ventilation flows for alternative façade inclinations.

Keywords: climate change, tilt façade, thermal comfort, passivhaus, overheating

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Authors: Jae Hyun Park, Sangmi Chai, Minkyun Kim

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As users spend more time on the Internet, the probability of their personal information being exposed has been growing. This research has a main purpose of investigating factors and examining relationships when Internet users recognize their value of private information with a perspective of an economic asset. The study is targeted on Internet users, and the value of their private information will be converted into economic figures. Moreover, how economic value changes in relation with individual attributes, dealer’s traits, circumstantial properties will be studied. In this research, the changes in factors on private information value responding to different situations will be analyzed in an economic perspective. Additionally, this study examines the associations between users’ perceived risk and value of their personal information. By using the cost-benefit analysis framework, the hypothesis that the user’s sense in private information value can be influenced by individual attributes and situational properties will be tested. Therefore, this research will attempt to provide answers for three research objectives. First, this research will identify factors that affect value recognition of users’ personal information. Second, it provides evidences that there are differences on information system users’ economic value of information responding to personal, trade opponent, and situational attributes. Third, it investigates the impact of those attributes on individuals’ perceived risk. Based on the assumption that personal, trade opponent and situation attributes make an impact on the users’ value recognition on private information, this research will present the understandings on the different impacts of those attributes in recognizing the value of information with the economic perspective and prove the associative relationships between perceived risk and decision on the value of users’ personal information. In order to validate our research model, this research used the regression methodology. Our research results support that information breach experience and information security systems is associated with users’ perceived risk. Information control and uncertainty are also related to users’ perceived risk. Therefore, users’ perceived risk is considered as a significant factor on evaluating the value of personal information. It can be differentiated by trade opponent and situational attributes. This research presents new perspective on evaluating the value of users’ personal information in the context of perceived risk, personal, trade opponent and situational attributes. It fills the gap in the literature by providing how users’ perceived risk are associated with personal, trade opponent and situation attitudes in conducting business transactions with providing personal information. It adds to previous literature that the relationship exists between perceived risk and the value of users’ private information in the economic perspective. It also provides meaningful insights to the managers that in order to minimize the cost of information breach, managers need to recognize the value of individuals’ personal information and decide the proper amount of investments on protecting users’ online information privacy.

Keywords: private information, value, users, perceived risk, online information privacy, attributes

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Authors: S. Masud, J. Merson, D. F. Robinson

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The management of environmental resources requires engagement of a range of stakeholders including public/private agencies and different community groups to implement sustainable conservation practices. The challenge which is often ignored is the analysis of agencies involved and their power relations. One of the barriers identified is the difference in risk perceptions among the agencies involved that leads to disjointed efforts of assessing and managing risks. Wood et al 2012, explains that it is important to have an integrated approach to risk management where decision makers address stakeholder perspectives. This is critical for an effective risk management policy. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks into barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. Experiences are drawn from international practices in the UK and examined in the context of Australia through exploring the flood governance in a highly flood-prone region in Australia: the Hawkesbury Ne-pean catchment as a case study. In this research study several aspects of governance and management are explored: (i) the complexities created by the way different agencies are involved in assessing flood risks (ii) different perceptions on acceptable flood risk level; (iii) perceptions on community engagement in defining acceptable flood risk level; (iv) Views on a holistic flood risk management approach; and, (v) challenges of centralised information system. The study concludes that the complexity of managing a large catchment is exacerbated by the difference in the way professionals perceive the problem. This has led to: (a) different standards for acceptable risks; (b) inconsistent attempt to set-up a regional scale flood management plan beyond the jurisdictional boundaries: (c) absence of a regional scale agency with license to share and update information (d) Lack of forums for dialogue with insurance companies to ensure an integrated approach to flood management. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example and draws from literary evidence from around the world. In addition, conclusions were extrapolated from eighteen semi-structured interviews from agencies involved in flood risk management in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment of NSW, Australia. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of complexity in assessing risks against a rapidly changing climate and contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from insurance companies, real-estate agencies, state and regional risk managers and the affected communities.

Keywords: adaptive governance, flood management, flood risk communication, stakeholder risk perceptions

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar

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Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a holistic documentation process for operational visualization, design coordination, estimation and project scheduling. BIM software defines objects parametrically and it is a tool for virtual reality. Primary advantage of implementing BIM is the visual coordination of the building structure and systems such as Mechanical, Electrical and Plumbing (MEP) and it also identifies the possible conflicts between the building systems. This paper is an attempt to develop a risk based BIM model which would highlight the primary advantages of application of BIM pertaining to urban infrastructure transportation project. It has been observed that about 40% of the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) companies use BIM but primarily for their outsourced projects. Also, 65% of the respondents agree that BIM would be used quiet strongly for future construction projects in India. The 3D models developed with Revit 2015 software would reduce co-ordination problems amongst the architects, structural engineers, contractors and building service providers (MEP). Integration of risk management along with BIM would provide enhanced co-ordination, collaboration and high probability of successful completion of the complex infrastructure transportation project within stipulated time and cost frame.

Keywords: building information modeling (BIM), infrastructure transportation, project risk management, underground metro rail

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Authors: Nahida Sultana

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Globally, an estimated 58 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection, with about 1.5 million new infections occurring per year. The hepatitis C virus is a blood-borne virus, and most infections occur through exposure to blood from unsafe injection practices, unsafe health care, unscreened blood transfusion, injection drug use, and sexual practices that lead to exposure to blood. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic infections that mainly affect the liver leading to liver diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is any significant association between HCV transmission risk factors in relation to genotypes in HCV-infected Bangladeshi patients. After quantification of HCV viral load, 36 samples were randomly selected for HCV genotyping and risk factor measurement. A greater proportion of genotype 1 (p > 0.05) patients (40%) underwent blood transfusion compared to patients (22.6%) with genotype 3 infections. More genotype 1 patient underwent surgery and invasive procedures (20%), and rather than those with genotype 3 patients (16.1%). The history of IDUs (25.8%) and sexual exposure (3.2%) are only prevalent in genotype 3 patients and absent in patients with genotype 1 (p >0.05). There was no significant statistical difference found in HCV transmission risk factors (blood transfusion, IDUs, Surgery& interventions, sexual transmission) between patients infected with genotypes 1 and 3. In HCV infection, genotype may have no relation to transmission risk factors among Bangladeshi patients.

Keywords: HCV genotype, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HCV viral load, IDUs

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Authors: Adel Ali Elshaibani

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Risk management indicators augment the reporting infrastructure, particularly for the board and senior management, to identify, monitor, and manage risks. This enhancement facilitates improved decision-making throughout the banking organization. Decision tree analysis is a tool that visually outlines potential outcomes, costs, and consequences of complex decisions. It is particularly beneficial for analyzing quantitative data and making decisions based on numerical values. By calculating the expected value of each outcome, decision tree analysis can help assess the best course of action. In the context of banking, decision tree analysis can assist lenders in evaluating a customer’s creditworthiness, thereby preventing losses. However, applying these tools in developing countries may face several limitations, such as data availability, lack of technological infrastructure and resources, lack of skilled professionals, cultural factors, and cost. Moreover, decision trees can create overly complex models that do not generalize well to new data, known as overfitting. They can also be sensitive to small changes in the data, which can result in different tree structures and can become computationally expensive when dealing with large datasets. In conclusion, while risk management indicators and decision tree analysis are beneficial for decision-making in banks, their effectiveness is contingent upon how they are implemented and utilized by the board of directors, especially in the context of developing countries. It’s important to consider these limitations when planning to implement these tools in developing countries.

Keywords: risk management indicators, decision tree analysis, developing countries, board of directors, bank performance, risk management strategy, banking institutions

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Authors: Nguyen Thi Loan, Phan Ngoc Thanh Tra

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Container is one of the techniques used in Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EDMR) Therapy. This paper presents the positive results of applying Container technique to “high risk children”. The sample for this research is composed of 60 “high risk children” whose ages range from 11 to 18 years old, housed in Ho Chi Minh City Youth Center. They have been under the program of the Worldwide Orphans Foundation since August 2015 for various reasons such as, loss of parents, anti-social behaviors, homelessness, child labor among others. These “high risk children” are under high levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The subjects were divided into two groups: the control and the experimental with 30 members each. The experimental group was applied Container Technique and the instruments used to measure their levels of stress, anxiety, and depression are DASS-42 and ASEBA. Results show that after applying the Container Technique to the experimental group, there are significant differences between the two groups’ levels of stress, anxiety and depression. The experimental group’s levels of stress, anxiety and depression decreased significantly. The results serve as a basis for the researchers to make an appeal to psychologists to apply Container Technique in doing psychological treatment in a suitable context.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, container technique, EMDR

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Authors: Mohsen Mohammadi, Toshio Fujimi

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High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.

Keywords: earthquake risk evaluation, Kabul, mitigation, vulnerability

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Kyriacos Clerides, Panagiotis Herodotou, Constantina Polycarpou, Evagoras Xydas

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Background: Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in the workplace is a very common problem in Europe which are caused by multiple risk factors. In recent years, wearable devices and exoskeletons for the workplace have been trying to address the various risk factors that are associated with strenuous tasks in the workplace. The logistics sector is a huge sector that includes warehousing, storage, and transportation. However, the task associated with logistics is not well-studied in terms of MSDs risk. This study was aimed at looking into the MSDs affecting workers of logistics companies. It compares the prevalence of MSDs among workers and evaluates multiple risk factors that contribute to the development of MSDs. Moreover, this study seeks to obtain user feedback on the adoption of exoskeletons in such a work environment. Materials and Methods: The study was conducted among workers in logistics companies in Nicosia, Cyprus, from July to September 2022. A set of standardized questionnaires was used for collecting different types of data. Results: A high proportion of logistics professionals reported MSDs in one or more other body regions, the lower back being the most commonly affected area. Working in the same position for long periods, working in awkward postures, and handling an excessive load, were found to be the most commonly reported job risk factor that contributed to the development of MSDs, in this study. A significant number of participants consider the back region as the most to be benefited from a wearable exoskeleton device. Half of the participants would like to have at least a 50% reduction in their daily effort. The most important characteristics for the adoption of exoskeleton devices were found to be how comfortable the device is and its weight. Conclusion: Lower back and posture were the highest risk factors among all logistics professionals assessed in this study. A larger scale study using quantitative analytical tools may give a more accurate estimate of MSDs, which would pave the way for making more precise recommendations to eliminate the risk factors and thereby prevent MSDs. A follow-up study using exoskeletons in the workplace should be done to assess whether they assist in MSD prevention.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, occupational health, safety, occupational risk, logistic companies, workers, Cyprus, industrial exoskeletons, wearable devices

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Authors: Muhammad Waqar Ashraf

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Selected heavy metals, namely Cu, Zn, Fe, Mn, Cd, Pb, and As, in seven popular varieties of edible vegetable oils collected from Saudi Arabia, were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (GF-AAS) using microwave digestion. The accuracy of procedure was confirmed by certified reference materials (NIST 1577b). The concentrations for copper, zinc, iron, manganese, lead and arsenic were observed in the range of 0.035 - 0.286, 0.955 - 3.10, 17.3 - 57.8, 0.178 - 0.586, 0.011 - 0.017 and 0.011 - 0.018 µg/g, respectively. Cadmium was found to be in the range of 2.36 - 6.34 ng/g. The results are compared internationally and with standards laid down by world health agencies. A risk assessment study has been carried out to assess exposure to these metals via consumption of vegetable oils. A comparison has been made with safety intake levels for these heavy metals recommended by Institute of Medicine of the National Academies (IOM), US Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (JECFA). The results indicated that the dietary intakes of the selected heavy metals from daily consumption of 25 g of edible vegetable oils for a 70 kg individual should pose no significant health risk to local population.

Keywords: vegetable oils, heavy metals, contamination, health risk assessment

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Authors: A. Baloglu, A. Çınar

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Different tools and technologies were implemented for Crisis Response and Management (CRM) which is generally using available network infrastructure for information exchange. Depending on type of disaster or crisis, network infrastructure could be affected and it could not be able to provide reliable connectivity. Thus any tool or technology that depends on the connectivity could not be able to fulfill its functionalities. As a solution, a new message exchange framework has been developed. Framework provides offline/online information exchange platform for CRM Information Systems (CRMIS) and it uses XML compression and packet prioritization algorithms and is based on open source web technologies. By introducing offline capabilities to the web technologies, framework will be able to perform message exchange on unreliable networks. The experiments done on the simulation environment provide promising results on low bandwidth networks (56kbps and 28.8 kbps) with up to 50% packet loss and the solution is to successfully transfer all the information on these low quality networks where the traditional 2 and 3 tier applications failed.

Keywords: crisis response and management, XML messaging, web services, XML compression, mining

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Authors: Tony Jehi, Sujatha Rajaram, Nader majzoub, Joan Sabate

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Aging significantly increases the incidence of various cardiometabolic diseases, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). To combat CVD and its associated risk factors, it is imperative to adopt a healthy dietary pattern that is rife with beneficial nutrient and non-nutrient compounds. Unsaturated fats, specifically n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA), have cardio-protective effects; the opposite is true for saturated fatty acids. What role, if any, does the biomarker of fatty acid intake (specific fatty acids in the erythrocyte) play in predicting cardiometabolic risk among the elderly, a population highly susceptible to increased mortality and morbidity from CVD risk factors, remains unclear. This was a secondary analysis of the Walnuts and Healthy Aging Study. Briefly, elderly (n=192, mean age 69 y) participants followed their usual diet and were randomized into two groups to either eat walnuts daily or abstain from eating walnuts for a period of 2 years. The purpose was to identify potential associations between erythrocyte membrane fatty acids and cardiometabolic risk factors (body weight, blood pressure, blood lipids, and fasting glucose). Erythrocyte n-3 PUFA were inversely associated with total cholesterol (ß = -3.83; p= 0.02), triglycerides (ß = -7.66; p= <0.01), and fasting glucose (ß = -0.19; p=0.03). Specifically, erythrocyte ALA (ß= -1.59; P = 0.04) and DPA (ß= -0.62; P=0.04) were inversely associated with diastolic blood pressure and fasting glucose, respectively. N-6 PUFAs were positively associated with systolic blood pressure (ß=1.10; P=0.02). Mono-unsaturated fatty acids were positively associated with TAG (ß = 4.16; P=0.03). Total saturated fatty acids were not associated with any cardiometabolic risk factors. No association was found between any erythrocyte fatty acid and body weight. In conclusion, erythrocyte n-3 PUFA may be used as a biomarker to predict the cardiometabolic risk among healthy elders, providing support for the American Heart Association guidelines for including n-3 PUFA for preventing CVD.

Keywords: cardiometabolic diseases, erythrocyte fatty acids, elderly, n-3 PUFA

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Authors: Mohammad A. Alolayan, John S. Evans, James K. Hammitt

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The value of statistical life has been estimated for a middle eastern country with high economical subsidization system. In this study, in-person interviews were conducted on a stratified random sample to estimate the value of mortality risk. Double-bounded dichotomous choice questions followed by open-ended question were used in the interview to investigate the willingness to pay of the respondent for mortality risk reduction. High willingness to pay was found to be associated with high income and education. Also, females were found to have lower willingness to pay than males. The estimated value of statistical life is larger than the ones estimated for western countries where taxation system exists. This estimate provides a baseline for monetizing the health benefits for proposed policy or program to the decision makers in an eastern country. Also, the value of statistical life for a country in the region can be extrapolated from this this estimate by using the benefit transfer method.

Keywords: mortality, risk, VSL, willingness-to-pay

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Authors: Sayed Amir Hamzeh Mirkheshti

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Offshore wind energy as a strategic renewable energy, has been growing rapidly due to availability, abundance and clean nature of it. On the other hand, budget of this project is incredibly higher in comparison with other renewable energies and it takes more duration. Accordingly, precise estimation of time and cost is needed in order to promote awareness in the developers and society and to convince them to develop this kind of energy despite its difficulties. Occurrence risks during on project would cause its duration and cost constantly changed. Therefore, to develop offshore wind power, it is critical to consider all potential risks which impacted project and to simulate their impact. Hence, knowing about these risks could be useful for the selection of most influencing strategies such as avoidance, transition, and act in order to decrease their probability and impact. This paper presents an evaluation of the feasibility of 500 MV offshore wind project in the Persian Gulf and compares its situation with uncertainty resources and risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate time and cost of offshore wind project under risk circumstances and uncertain resources by using Monte Carlo simulation. We analyzed each risk and activity along with their distribution function and their effect on the project.

Keywords: wind energy project, uncertain resources, risks, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Sanari Chalin Moriri, Kwabena Kingsley Ayisi, Alina Mofokeng

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Dryland smallholder farmers in South Africa are vulnerable to all kinds of risks, and it negatively affects crop productivity and profit. Pigeonpea is a leguminous and multipurpose crop that provides food, fodder, and wood for smallholder farmers. The majority of these farmers are still growing pigeonpea from traditional unimproved seeds, which comprise a mixture of genotypes. The objectives of the study were to identify the key risk factors that affect pigeonpea productivity and to develop management strategies on how to alleviate the risk factors in pigeonpea production. The study was conducted in two provinces (Limpopo and Mpumalanga) of South Africa in six municipalities during the 2020/2021 growing seasons. The non-probability sampling method using purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used to collect data from the farmers through a structured questionnaire. A total of 114 pigeonpea producers were interviewed individually using a questionnaire. Key stakeholders in each municipality were also identified, invited, and interviewed to verify the information given by farmers. Data collected were subjected to SPSS statistical software 25 version. The findings of the study were that majority of farmers affected by risk factors were women, subsistence, and old farmers resulted in low food production. Drought, unavailability of improved pigeonpea seeds for planting, access to information, and processing equipment were found to be the main risk factors contributing to low crop productivity in farmer’s fields. Above 80% of farmers lack knowledge on the improvement of the crop and also on the processing techniques to secure high prices during the crop off-season. Market availability, pricing, and incidence of pests and diseases were found to be minor risk factors which were triggered by the major risk factors. The minor risk factors can be corrected only if the major risk factors are first given the necessary attention. About 10% of the farmers found to use the crop as a mulch to reduce soil temperatures and to improve soil fertility. The study revealed that most of the farmers were unaware of its utilisation as fodder, much, medicinal, nitrogen fixation, and many more. The risk of frequent drought in dry areas of South Africa where farmers solely depend on rainfall poses a serious threat to crop productivity. The majority of these risk factors are caused by climate change due to unrealistic, low rainfall with extreme temperatures poses a threat to food security, water, and the environment. The use of drought-tolerant, multipurpose legume crops such as pigeonpea, access to new information, provision of processing equipment, and support from all stakeholders will help in addressing food security for smallholder farmers. Policies should be revisited to address the prevailing risk factors faced by farmers and involve them in addressing the risk factors. Awareness should be prioritized in promoting the crop to improve its production and commercialization in the dryland farming system of South Africa.

Keywords: management strategies, pigeonpea, risk factors, smallholder farmers

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Authors: Asma Qudrat, Abid Ullah, Rafi Ullah, Ali Raza, Shah Zeb, Syed Ali Shan Ul-Haq, Shahkar Ahmed Shah, Attiya Hameed Khan, Saad Zaheer, Umama Qasim, Kiran Jamal, Zahoor khan

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Objectives: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the major public health issue associated with high mortality and morbidity rate worldwide. Young patients with ACS have unique characteristics with different demographic profiles and risk factors. The precise diagnosis and early risk stratification is important in guiding treatment and predicting the prognosis of young patients with ACS. To evaluate the associated demographics, risk factors, and outcomes profile of ACS in young age patients. Methods: The research follow a retrospective design, the single centre study of patients diagnosis with the first event of ACS in young age (>18 and <40) were included. Data collection included demographic profiles, risk factors, and in-hospital outcomes of young ACS patients. The patient’s data was retrieved through Electronic Medical Records (EMR) of Peshawar Institute of Cardiology (PIC), and all characteristic were assessed. Results: In this study, 77% were male, and 23% were female patients. The risk factors were assessed with CAD and shown significant results (P < 0.01). The most common presentation was STEMI, with (45%) most in ACS young patients. The angiographic pattern showed single vessel disease (SVD) in 49%, double vessel disease (DVD) in 17% and triple vessel disease (TVD) was found in 10%, and Left Artery Disease (LAD) (54%) was present to be the most common involved artery. Conclusion: It is concluded that the male sex was predominant in ACS young age patients. SVD was the common coronary angiographic finding. Risk factors showed significant results towards CAD and common presentations.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, Non-ST elevation myocardial infarction, ST elevation myocardial infarction, unstable angina, acute coronary syndrome

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Authors: Kun Huang

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This paper investigates whether the combination of local and stochastic volatility models can be calibrated exactly to any arbitrage-free implied volatility surface of European option. The risk neutral Brownian Bridge density is applied for calibration of the leverage function of our Hybrid model. Furthermore, the tails of marginal risk neutral density are generated by Generalized Extreme Value distribution in order to capture the properties of asset returns. The local volatility is generated from the arbitrage-free implied volatility surface using stochastic volatility inspired parameterization.

Keywords: arbitrage free implied volatility, calibration, extreme value distribution, hybrid model, local volatility, risk-neutral density, stochastic volatility

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Authors: L. Sierra, N. Gambetta, M. A. Garcia-Benau, M. Orta

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Financial scandals and financial crisis have led to an international debate on the value of auditing. In recent years there have been significant legislative reforms aiming to increase markets’ confidence in audit services. In particular, there has been a significant debate on the need to improve the communication of auditors with audit reports users as a way to improve its informative value and thus, to improve audit quality. The International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) has proposed changes to the audit report standards. The International Standard on Auditing 701, Communicating Key Audit Matters (KAM) in the Independent Auditor's Report, has introduced new concepts that go beyond the auditor's opinion and requires to disclose the risks that, from the auditor's point of view, are more significant in the audited company information. Focusing on the companies included in the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 index, this study aims to focus on the analysis of the determinants of the number of KAM disclosed by the auditor in the audit report and moreover, the analysis of the determinants of the different type of KAM reported during the period 2013-2015. To test the hypotheses in the empirical research, two different models have been used. The first one is a linear regression model to identify the client’s characteristics, industry sector and auditor’s characteristics that are related to the number of KAM disclosed in the audit report. Secondly, a logistic regression model is used to identify the determinants of the number of each KAM type disclosed in the audit report; in line with the risk-based approach to auditing financial statements, we categorized the KAM in 2 groups: Entity-level KAM and Accounting-level KAM. Regarding the auditor’s characteristics impact on the KAM disclosure, the results show that PwC tends to report a larger number of KAM while KPMG tends to report less KAM in the audit report. Further, PwC reports a larger number of entity-level risk KAM while KPMG reports less account-level risk KAM. The results also show that companies paying higher fees tend to have more entity-level risk KAM and less account-level risk KAM. The materiality level is positively related to the number of account-level risk KAM. Additionally, these study results show that the relationship between client’s characteristics and number of KAM is more evident in account-level risk KAM than in entity-level risk KAM. A highly leveraged company carries a great deal of risk, but due to this, they are usually subject to strong capital providers monitoring resulting in less account-level risk KAM. The results reveal that the number of account-level risk KAM is strongly related to the industry sector in which the company operates assets. This study helps to understand the UK audit market, provides information to auditors and finally, it opens new research avenues in the academia.

Keywords: FTSE 100, IAS 701, key audit matters, auditor’s characteristics, client’s characteristics

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Authors: Bronwen Wade

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Over the last half-century, child welfare systems have increasingly relied on quantitative risk assessment tools, such as actuarial or predictive risk tools. These tools are developed by performing statistical analysis of how attributes captured in administrative data are related to future child maltreatment. Some scholars argue that attributes in administrative data can serve as proxies for race and that quantitative risk assessment tools reify racial bias in decision-making. Others argue that these tools provide more “objective” and “scientific” guides for decision-making instead of subjective social worker judgment. This study performs a systematic review of the literature on the impact of quantitative risk assessment tools on racial disproportionality; it examines methodological biases in work on this topic, summarizes key findings, and provides suggestions for further work. A search of CINAHL, PsychInfo, Proquest Social Science Premium Collection, and the ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Collection was performed. Academic and grey literature were included. The review includes studies that use quasi-experimental methods and development, validation, or re-validation studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. PROBAST (Prediction model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool) and CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) were used to assess the risk of bias and guide data extraction for risk development, validation, or re-validation studies. ROBINS-I (Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions) was used to assess for bias and guide data extraction for the quasi-experimental studies identified. Due to heterogeneity among papers, a meta-analysis was not feasible, and a narrative synthesis was conducted. 11 papers met the eligibility criteria, and each has an overall high risk of bias based on the PROBAST and ROBINS-I assessments. This is deeply concerning, as major policy decisions have been made based on a limited number of studies with a high risk of bias. The findings on racial disproportionality have been mixed and depend on the tool and approach used. Authors use various definitions for racial equity, fairness, or disproportionality. These concepts of statistical fairness are connected to theories about the reason for racial disproportionality in child welfare or social definitions of fairness that are usually not stated explicitly. Most findings from these studies are unreliable, given the high degree of bias. However, some of the less biased measures within studies suggest that quantitative risk assessment tools may worsen racial disproportionality, depending on how disproportionality is mathematically defined. Authors vary widely in their approach to defining and addressing racial disproportionality within studies, making it difficult to generalize findings or approaches across studies. This review demonstrates the power of authors to shape policy or discourse around racial justice based on their choice of statistical methods; it also demonstrates the need for improved rigor and transparency in studies of quantitative risk assessment tools. Finally, this review raises concerns about the impact that these tools have on child welfare systems and racial disproportionality.

Keywords: actuarial risk, child welfare, predictive risk, racial disproportionality

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Authors: Afifa Aslam, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abid Mahmood, Muhammad Usman Alvi, Fariha Jabeen, Umara Tabassum

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Many factors cause air pollution in Pakistan, which poses a significant threat to human health. Diesel fuel and gasoline motor vehicles, as well as industrial companies, pollute the air in Pakistan's cities. The study's goal is to determine the level of air pollution in a Pakistani industrial city and to establish risk levels for the health of the population. We measured the intensity of air pollution by chemical characterization and examination of air samples collected at stationary remark sites. The PM10 levels observed at all sampling sites, including residential, commercial, high-traffic, and industrial areas were well above the limits imposed by Pakistan EPA, the United States EPA, and WHO. We assessed the health risk via chemical factors using a methodology approved for risk assessment. All Igeo index values greater than one were considered moderately contaminated or moderately to severely contaminated. Heavy metals have a substantial risk of acute adverse effects. In Faisalabad, Pakistan, there was an enormously high risk of chronic effects produced by a heavy metal acquaintance. Concerning specified toxic metals, intolerable levels of carcinogenic risks have been determined for the entire population. As a result, in most of the investigated areas of Faisalabad, the indices and hazard quotients for chronic and acute exposure exceeded the permissible level of 1.0. In the current study, re-suspended roadside mineral dust, anthropogenic exhaust emissions from traffic and industry, and industrial dust were identified as major emission sources of elemental particulate contents. Because of the unacceptable levels of risk in the research area, it is strongly suggested that a comprehensive study of the population's health status as a result of air pollution should be conducted for policies to be developed against these risks.

Keywords: elemental composition, particulate pollution, Igeo index, health risk assessment, hazard quotient

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Authors: Hui-Chen Tsai, Chien-Jen Ho, Bo-Wei Power Liang, Ying Shen, Yi-Hsin Lai

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Former Taiwan Metal Mining Corporation and its associated 3 wasted flue gas tunnels, hereinafter referred to as 'TMMC', was contaminated with heavy metals, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPHs) in soil. Since the contamination had been exposed and unmanaged in the environment for more than 40 years, the extent of the contamination area is estimated to be more than 25 acres. Additionally, TMMC is located in a remote, mountainous area where almost no residents are residing in the 1-km radius area. Thus, it was deemed necessary to conduct an ecological risk assessment in order to evaluate the details of future contaminated site management plan. According to the winter and summer, ecological investigation results, one type of endangered, multiple vulnerable and near threaten plant was discovered, as well as numerous other protected species, such as Crested Serpent Eagle, Crested Goshawk, Black Kite, Brown Shrike, Taiwan Blue Magpie were observed. Ecological soil screening level (Eco-SSLs) developed by USEPA was adopted as a reference to conduct screening assessment. Since all the protected species observed surrounding TMMC site were birds, screening ecological risk assessment was conducted on birds only. The assessment was assessed mainly based on the chemical evaluation, which the contamination in different environmental media was compared directly with the ecological impact levels (EIL) of each evaluation endpoints and the respective hazard quotient (HQ) and hazard index (HI) could be obtained. The preliminary ecological risk assessment results indicated HI is greater than 1. In other words, the biological stressors (birds) were exposed to the contamination, which was already exceeded the dosage that could cause unacceptable impacts to the ecological system. This result was mainly due to the high concentration of arsenic, metal and lead; thus it was suggested the above mention contaminants should be remediated as soon as possible or proper risk management measures should be taken.

Keywords: screening, ecological risk assessment, ecological impact levels, risk management

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Authors: Soha Saad, Jean Bigeon, Florence Ossart, Etienne Sourdille

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Developing better solutions for train rescheduling problems has been drawing the attention of researchers for decades. Most researches in this field deal with minor incidents that affect a large number of trains due to cascading effects. They focus on timetables, rolling stock and crew duties, but do not take into account infrastructure limits. The present work addresses electric infrastructure incidents that limit the power available for train traction, and hence the transportation capacity of the railway system. Rescheduling is needed in order to optimally share the available power among the different trains. We propose a rescheduling process based on dynamic multiphysics railway simulations that include the mechanical and electrical properties of all the system components and calculate physical quantities such as the train speed profiles, voltage along the catenary lines, temperatures, etc. The optimization problem to solve has a large number of continuous and discrete variables, several output constraints due to physical limitations of the system, and a high computation cost. Our approach includes a phase of sensitivity analysis in order to analyze the behavior of the system and help the decision making process and/or more precise optimization. This approach is a quantitative method based on simulation statistics of the dynamic railway system, considering a predefined range of variation of the input parameters. Three important settings are defined. Factor prioritization detects the input variables that contribute the most to the outputs variation. Then, factor fixing allows calibrating the input variables which do not influence the outputs. Lastly, factor mapping is used to study which ranges of input values lead to model realizations that correspond to feasible solutions according to defined criteria or objectives. Generalized Sobol indexes are used for factor prioritization and factor fixing. The approach is tested in the case of a simple railway system, with a nominal traffic running on a single track line. The considered incident is the loss of a feeding power substation, which limits the power available and the train speed. Rescheduling is needed and the variables to be adjusted are the trains departure times, train speed reduction at a given position and the number of trains (cancellation of some trains if needed). The results show that the spacing between train departure times is the most critical variable, contributing to more than 50% of the variation of the model outputs. In addition, we identify the reduced range of variation of this variable which guarantees that the output constraints are respected. Optimal solutions are extracted, according to different potential objectives: minimizing the traveling time, the train delays, the traction energy, etc. Pareto front is also built.

Keywords: optimization, rescheduling, railway system, sensitivity analysis, train timetable

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Authors: Beng Yew Low, Cher Liang Cha, Cheng Yong Teoh

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Due to a lack of continual assessment or grade related data, identifying first-year engineering students in a polytechnic education at risk of failing is challenging. Our experience over the years tells us that there is no strong correlation between having good entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences and excelling in hardcore engineering subjects. Hence, identifying students at risk of failure cannot be on the basis of entry grades in Mathematics and the Sciences alone. These factors compound the difficulty of early identification and intervention. This paper describes the development of a predictive analytics model in the early detection of students at risk of failing and evaluates its effectiveness. Data from continual assessments conducted in term one, supplemented by data of student psychological profiles such as interests and study habits, were used. Three classification techniques, namely Logistic Regression, K Nearest Neighbour, and Random Forest, were used in our predictive model. Based on our findings, Random Forest was determined to be the strongest predictor with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.994. Correspondingly, the Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F-Score were also highest among these three classifiers. Using this Random Forest Classification technique, students at risk of failure could be identified at the end of term one. They could then be assigned to a Learning Support Programme at the beginning of term two. This paper gathers the results of our findings. It also proposes further improvements that can be made to the model.

Keywords: continual assessment, predictive analytics, random forest, student psychological profile

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Fatemeh Rezaei, Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshnas

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Background: Failure Modes and Effect Analysis is now having known as the main methods of risk assessment and the accreditation requirements for many organizations. The Risk Priority Number (RPN) approach is generally preferred, especially for its easiness of use. Indeed it does not require statistical data, but it is based on subjective evaluations given by the experts about the Occurrence (O i), the Severity (Si) and the Detectability (D i) of each cause of failure. Methods: This study is a quantitative – qualitative research. In terms of qualitative dimension, method of focus groups with inductive approach is used. To evaluate the results of the qualitative study, quantitative assessment was conducted to calculate RPN score. Results; We have studied patient’s journey process in surgery ward and the most important phase of the process determined Transport of the patient from the holding area to the operating room. Failures of the phase with the highest priority determined by defining inclusion criteria included severity (clinical effect, claim consequence, waste of time and financial loss), occurrence (time- unit occurrence and degree of exposure to risk) and preventability (degree of preventability and defensive barriers) and quantifying risks priority criteria in the context of RPN index. Ability of improved RPN reassess by root cause (RCA) analysis showed some variations. Conclusions: Finally, It could be concluded that understandable criteria should have been developed according to personnel specialized language and communication field. Therefore, participation of both technical and clinical groups is necessary to modify and apply these models.

Keywords: failure mode, effects analysis, risk priority number(RPN), health system, risk assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 313

Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

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Introduction: It is well known that patients with Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) are at increased risk of subsequent head and neck cancers due to various aetiologies. Aim: We sought to determine the factors contributing to an increased risk of subsequent HNC primaries, and also to evaluate whether Aboriginal patients are at increased risk. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single centre in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal patients and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by site, histology, rurality, and age. We collected patient data including smoking and alcohol consumption, tumour and treatment data, and data on subsequent HNC primaries. Results: A subsequent HNC primary was seen in 37 patients (11.6%) overall. There was no significant difference in the rate of second primary HNCs between Aboriginal patients (12.5%) and nonAboriginal patients (11.2%) (p=0.408). Subsequent HNCs, were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol consumption however, with 95% of patients with a second primary being ever-smokers, and 54% of patients with a second primary having a history of excessive alcohol consumption. In the 37 patients with multiple HNC primaries, there were a total of 57 HNCs, with 29 patients having two primaries, six patients having 3 HNC primaries, one patient with four, and one with six. 54 out of the 57 cancers were in ever smokers (94.7%). There were only two multiple HNC primaries in a never smoker, non-drinker, and these cases were of unknown etiology with HPV/p16 status unknown in both cases. In the whole study population, there were 32 HPV-positive HNCs, and 67 p16-positive HNCs, with only two 2 nd HNCs in a p16-positive case, giving a rate of 3% in the p16+ population, which is actually much lower than the rate of second primaries seen in the overall population (11.6%), and was highest in the p16-negative population (15.7%). This suggests that p16-positivity is not a strong risk factor for subsequent primaries, and in fact p16-negativity appeared to be associated with increased risk, however this data is limited by the large number of patients without documented p16 status (45.3% overall, 12% for oropharyngeal, and 59.6% for oral cavity primaries had unknown p16 status). Summary: Subsequent HNC primaries were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol excess. Second and later HNC primaries did not appear to occur at increased rates in Aboriginal patients compared with non-Aboriginal patients, and p16-positivity did not predict increased risk, however p16-negativity was associated with an increased risk of subsequent HNCs.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, multiple primaries, aboriginal, p16 status, smoking, alcohol

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Authors: Mehrdad Abkenari, Mehmet Kunt, Mahdi Nourollahi

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Evaluating the environmental risk factors is a combination of analysis of transportation effects. Various definitions for risk can be found in different scientific sources. Each definition depends on a specific and particular perspective or dimension. The effects of potential risks present along the new proposed routes and existing infrastructures of large transportation projects like railways should be studied under comprehensive engineering frameworks. Despite various definitions provided for ‘risk’, all include a uniform concept. Two obvious aspects, loss and unreliability, have always been pointed in all definitions of this term. But, selection as the third aspect is usually implied and means how one notices it. Currently, conducting engineering studies on the environmental effects of railway projects have become obligatory according to the Environmental Assessment Act in developing countries. Considering the longitudinal nature of these projects and probable passage of railways through various ecosystems, scientific research on the environmental risk of these projects have become of great interest. Although many areas of expertise such as road construction in developing countries have not seriously committed to these studies yet, attention to these subjects in establishment or implementation of different systems have become an inseparable part of this wave of research. The present study used environmental risks identified and existing in previous studies and stations to use in next step. The second step proposes a new hybrid approach of analytical network process (ANP) and DEMATEL in fuzzy conditions for assessment of determined risks. Since evaluation of identified risks was not an easy touch, mesh structure was an appropriate approach for analyzing complex systems which were accordingly employed for problem description and modeling. Researchers faced the shortage of real space data and also due to the ambiguity of experts’ opinions and judgments, they were declared in language variables instead of numerical ones. Since fuzzy logic is appropriate for ambiguity and uncertainty, formulation of experts’ opinions in the form of fuzzy numbers seemed an appropriate approach. Fuzzy DEMATEL method was used to extract the relations between major and minor risk factors. Considering the internal relations of risk major factors and its sub-factors in the analysis of fuzzy network, the weight of risk’s main factors and sub-factors were determined. In general, findings of the present study, in which effective railway environmental risk indicators were theoretically identified and rated through the first usage of combined model of DEMATEL and fuzzy network analysis, indicate that environmental risks can be evaluated more accurately and also employed in railway projects.

Keywords: DEMATEL, ANP, fuzzy, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 413