Search results for: project progress prediction

Authors: S. Ahmed, P. Dlask, B. Hasan

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There are several ways to estimate the cost of the construction project: simple and detailed. The process of estimating cost is usually done during the design stage, which should take long-time and the designer must give attention to all details. This paper explain the causes of the deviations occurring in the cost of the construction project, and determines the reasons of these differences between contractual cost and final cost of the construction project, through the study of literature review related to this field, and benefiting from the experience of workers in the field of building (owners, contractors) through designing a questionnaire, and finding the most ten important reasons and explain the relation between the contractual cost and the final cost according to these reasons. The difference between those values will be showed through diagrams drawn using the statistical program. In addition to studying the effects of overrun costs on the advancing of the project, and identify the most five important effects. According to the results, we can propose the right direction for the final cost evaluation and propose some measures that would help to control and adjust the deviation in the costs.

Keywords: construction projects, building, cost, estimating costs, delay, overrun

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Authors: Amira Abdelrasoul, Huu Doan, Ali Lohi

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An efficient and well-planned ultrafiltration process is becoming a necessity for monetary returns in the industrial settings. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical model for an accurate prediction of ultrafiltration membrane fouling of latex effluent applied to homogeneous and heterogeneous membranes with uniform and non-uniform pore sizes, respectively. The models were also developed for an accurate prediction of power consumption that can handle the large-scale purposes. The model incorporated the fouling attachments as well as chemical and physical factors in membrane fouling for accurate prediction and scale-up application. Both Polycarbonate and Polysulfone flat membranes, with pore sizes of 0.05 µm and a molecular weight cut-off of 60,000, respectively, were used under a constant feed flow rate and a cross-flow mode in ultrafiltration of the simulated paint effluent. Furthermore, hydrophilic ultrafilic and hydrophobic PVDF membranes with MWCO of 100,000 were used to test the reliability of the models. Monodisperse particles of 50 nm and 100 nm in diameter, and a latex effluent with a wide range of particle size distributions were utilized to validate the models. The aggregation and the sphericity of the particles indicated a significant effect on membrane fouling.

Keywords: membrane fouling, mathematical modeling, power consumption, attachments, ultrafiltration

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Authors: Ulrike Dowie, Ralph Grothmann

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Rational planning decisions are based upon forecasts. Precise forecasting has, therefore, a central role in business. The prediction of customer demand is a prime example. This paper introduces recurrent neural networks to model customer demand and combines the forecast with uncertainty measures to derive decision support of the demand planning department. It identifies and describes the keys to the successful implementation of an AI-based solution: bringing together data with business knowledge, AI methods, and user experience, and applying agile software development practices.

Keywords: agile software development, AI project success factors, deep learning, demand forecasting, forecast uncertainty, neural networks, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 189

Authors: Prathiksha Kamath, Pratibha Jamkhandi, Prateek Ghanti, Priyanshu Gupta, M. Lakshmi Neelima

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Combining Image Captioning and Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks have emerged as a new and exciting research area. The image captioning task involves generating a textual description that summarizes the content of the image. VQA aims to answer a natural language question about the image. Both these tasks include computer vision and natural language processing (NLP) and require a deep understanding of the content of the image and semantic relationship within the image and the ability to generate a response in natural language. There has been remarkable growth in both these tasks with rapid advancement in deep learning. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of recent progress in combining image captioning and visual question-answering (VQA) tasks. We first discuss both image captioning and VQA tasks individually and then the various ways in which both these tasks can be integrated. We also analyze the challenges associated with these tasks and ways to overcome them. We finally discuss the various datasets and evaluation metrics used in these tasks. This paper concludes with the need for generating captions based on the context and captions that are able to answer the most likely asked questions about the image so as to aid the VQA task. Overall, this review highlights the significant progress made in combining image captioning and VQA, as well as the ongoing challenges and opportunities for further research in this exciting and rapidly evolving field, which has the potential to improve the performance of real-world applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, and image search.

Keywords: image captioning, visual question answering, deep learning, natural language processing

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Authors: Marzieh Karimihaghighi, Carlos Castillo

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This work studies how Machine Learning (ML) may be used to increase the effectiveness of a criminal recidivism risk assessment tool, RisCanvi. The two key dimensions of this analysis are predictive accuracy and algorithmic fairness. ML-based prediction models obtained in this study are more accurate at predicting criminal recidivism than the manually-created formula used in RisCanvi, achieving an AUC of 0.76 and 0.73 in predicting violent and general recidivism respectively. However, the improvements are small, and it is noticed that algorithmic discrimination can easily be introduced between groups such as national vs foreigner, or young vs old. It is described how effectiveness and algorithmic fairness objectives can be balanced, applying a method in which a single error disparity in terms of generalized false positive rate is minimized, while calibration is maintained across groups. Obtained results show that this bias mitigation procedure can substantially reduce generalized false positive rate disparities across multiple groups. Based on these results, it is proposed that ML-based criminal recidivism risk prediction should not be introduced without applying algorithmic bias mitigation procedures.

Keywords: algorithmic fairness, criminal risk assessment, equalized odds, recidivism

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Authors: Esra Polat

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Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLSDA) is a statistical method for classification and consists a classical Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) in which the dependent variable is a categorical one expressing the class membership of each observation. PLSDA can be applied in many cases when classical discriminant analysis cannot be applied. For example, when the number of observations is low and when the number of independent variables is high. When there are missing values, PLSDA can be applied on the data that is available. Finally, it is adapted when multicollinearity between independent variables is high. The aim of this study is to determine the economic and/or demographic indicators, which are effective in grouping the 28 European Union (EU) member countries and 7 candidate countries (including potential candidates Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Kosova) by using the data set obtained from database of the World Bank for 2014. Leaving the political issues aside, the analysis is only concerned with the economic and demographic variables that have the potential influence on country’s eligibility for EU entrance. Hence, in this study, both the performance of PLSDA method in classifying the countries correctly to their pre-defined groups (candidate or member) and the differences between the EU countries and candidate countries in terms of these indicators are analyzed. As a result of the PLSDA, the value of percentage correctness of 100 % indicates that overall of the 35 countries is classified correctly. Moreover, the most important variables that determine the statuses of member and candidate countries in terms of economic indicators are identified as 'external balance on goods and services (% GDP)', 'gross domestic savings (% GDP)' and 'gross national expenditure (% GDP)' that means for the 2014 economical structure of countries is the most important determinant of EU membership. Subsequently, the model validated to prove the predictive ability by using the data set for 2015. For prediction sample, %97,14 of the countries are correctly classified. An interesting result is obtained for only BiH, which is still a potential candidate for EU, predicted as a member of EU by using the indicators data set for 2015 as a prediction sample. Although BiH has made a significant transformation from a war-torn country to a semi-functional state, ethnic tensions, nationalistic rhetoric and political disagreements are still evident, which inhibit Bosnian progress towards the EU.

Keywords: classification, demographic indicators, economic indicators, European Union, partial least squares discriminant analysis

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Authors: Rolla Monib, Chris I. Goodier, Alistair Gibbs

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the key drivers in planning the construction phase for infrastructure projects to reduce project delays. To achieve this aim, the research conducted three case studies using semi-structured and unstructured interviews (n=36). The results conclude that a lack of modularisation awareness is among the key factors attributed to project delays. The current emotive and ill-informed approach to decision-making, coupled with the lack of knowledge regarding appropriate construction method selection, prevents the potential benefits of modularisation being fully realised. To assist with decision-making for the best construction method, the research presents project management tools to help decision makers to choose the most appropriate construction approach through optimising the use of modularisation in EC. A decision-making checklist and diagram are presented in this paper. These checklist tools and diagrams assist the project team in determining the best construction method, taking into consideration the module type.

Keywords: infrastructure, modularization, decision support, decision-making

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Authors: Nipun Agarwal, David Paul, Fareed Un Din

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Strategy development and implementation is the key to an organization’s success in today’s competitive marketplace. Many organizations develop excellent strategy but are unable to implement this strategy in order to succeed. The difference between strategic goals and its implementation is called strategic error. Strategic error occurs when an organization does not have structures in place to implement their strategy. Strategy implementation happens through projects and having a project management method that provides certainty and agility will help an organization become more competitive in implementing strategy. Numerous project management methods exist in theory and practice. However, projects mainly used the Waterfall method in the past that provides certainty in terms of budget, delivery date and resourcing. It is common practice now to utilise Agile based methods. However, Agile based methods do not provide specific deadlines and budgets. But provide agility in product design and project delivery, which is useful to companies. Both Waterfall and Agile methods in some forms are the opposites of each other. Executive management prefer agility in delivery projects as the competitive landscape changes frequently. However, they also appreciate certainty in the projects being able to quantify budgets, deadlines and resources that is harder for an Agile based method to provide. This paper attempts to develop a hybrid project management method that attempts to merge these Waterfall and Agile methods to provide the positives from both these approaches.

Keywords: strategy, project management, strategy implementation, agile

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Authors: Tomas Berhanu Bekele

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Traffic congestion is one of the main problems related to transportation in developed as well as developing countries. Traffic control systems are based on the idea of avoiding traffic instabilities and homogenizing traffic flow in such a way that the risk of accidents is minimized and traffic flow is maximized. Lately, Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) has become an important area of research to solve such road traffic-related issues for making smart decisions. It links people, roads and vehicles together using communication technologies to increase safety and mobility. Moreover, accurate prediction of road traffic is important to manage traffic congestion. The aim of this study is to develop an ANN model for the prediction of traffic flow and to compare the ANN model with the linear regression model of traffic flow predictions. Data extraction was carried out in intervals of 15 minutes from the video player. Video of mixed traffic flow was taken and then counted during office work in order to determine the traffic volume. Vehicles were classified into six categories, namely Car, Motorcycle, Minibus, mid-bus, Bus, and Truck vehicles. The average time taken by each vehicle type to travel the trap length was measured by time displayed on a video screen.

Keywords: intelligent transport system (ITS), traffic flow prediction, artificial neural network (ANN), linear regression

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Authors: Andrey Lebedev, Ilya Dmitrenok, JooYoung Lee, Leonard Johard

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Top-k shortest path routing problem is an extension of finding the shortest path in a given network. Shortest path is one of the most essential measures as it reveals the relations between two nodes in a network. However, in many real world networks, whose diameters are small, top-k shortest path is more interesting as it contains more information about the network topology. Many variations to compute top-k shortest paths have been studied. In this paper, we apply an efficient top-k shortest distance routing algorithm to the link prediction problem and test its efficacy. We compare the results with other base line and state-of-the-art methods as well as with the shortest path. Then, we also propose a top-k distance based graph matching algorithm.

Keywords: graph matching, link prediction, shortest path, similarity

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Authors: Elena M. Capitanul, Carlos A. Nunes Cosenza, Walid El Moudani, Felix Mora Camino

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The construction of a new airport or the extension of an existing one requires massive investments and many times public private partnerships were considered in order to make feasible such projects. One characteristic of these projects is uncertainty with respect to financial and environmental impacts on the medium to long term. Another one is the multistage nature of these types of projects. While many airport development projects have been a success, some others have turned into a nightmare for their promoters. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming. An illustration of the proposed approach is provided.

Keywords: airports, fuzzy logic, risk, uncertainty

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Authors: Michael Gerges, Ograbe Ahiakwo, Martin Jaeger, Ahmad Asaad

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Recent advances of Building Information Modeling (BIM) especially in the Middle East have increased remarkably. Dubai has been taking a lead on this by making it mandatory for BIM to be adopted for all projects that involve complex architecture designs. This is because BIM is a dynamic process that assists all stakeholders in monitoring the project status throughout different project phases with great transparency. It focuses on utilizing information technology to improve collaboration among project participants during the entire life cycle of the project from the initial design, to the supply chain, resource allocation, construction and all productivity requirements. In view of this trend, the paper examines the extent of applying BIM in the State of Kuwait, by exploring practitioners’ perspectives on BIM, especially their perspectives on main barriers and main advantages. To this end structured interviews were carried out based on questionnaires and with a range of different construction professionals. The results revealed that practitioners perceive improved communication and mitigated project risks by encouraged collaboration between project participants. However, it was also observed that the full implementation of BIM in the State of Kuwait requires concerted efforts to make clients demanding BIM, counteract resistance to change among construction professionals and offer more training for design team members. This paper forms part of an on-going research effort on BIM and its application in the State of Kuwait and it is on this basis that further research on the topic is proposed.

Keywords: building information modeling, BIM, construction industry, Kuwait

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Authors: Faizul Azly Abd Dzubir, Muhammad F. Othman

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Conventional structural health monitoring approach for mechanical equipment uses inspection data from Non-Destructive Testing (NDT) during plant shut down window and fitness for service evaluation to estimate the integrity of the equipment that is prone to crack damage. Yet, this forecast is fraught with uncertainty because it is often based on assumptions of future operational parameters, and the prediction is not continuous or online. Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Technology (ADaPT) uses Acoustic Emission (AE) technology and a stochastic prognostic model to provide real-time monitoring and prediction of mechanical defects or cracks. The forecast can help the plant authority handle their cracked equipment before it ruptures, causing an unscheduled shutdown of the facility. The ADaPT employs process historical data trending, finite element analysis, fitness for service, and probabilistic statistical analysis to develop a prediction model for crack initiation and growth due to mechanical damage. The prediction model is combined with live equipment operating data for real-time prediction of the remaining life span owing to fracture. ADaPT was devised at a hot combined feed exchanger (HCFE) that had suffered creep crack damage. The ADaPT tool predicts the initiation of a crack at the top weldment area by April 2019. During the shutdown window in April 2019, a crack was discovered and repaired. Furthermore, ADaPT successfully advised the plant owner to run at full capacity and improve output by up to 7% by April 2019. ADaPT was also used on a coke drum that had extensive fatigue cracking. The initial cracks are declared safe with ADaPT, with remaining crack lifetimes extended another five (5) months, just in time for another planned facility downtime to execute repair. The prediction model, when combined with plant information data, allows plant operators to continuously monitor crack propagation caused by mechanical damage for improved maintenance planning and to avoid costly shutdowns to repair immediately.

Keywords: mechanical damage, cracks, continuous monitoring tool, remaining life, acoustic emission, prognostic model

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Authors: Prashant Verma

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Commercial banks are facing immense pressure, including financial disintermediation, interest rate volatility and digital ways of finance. Retaining an existing customer is 5 to 25 less expensive than acquiring a new one. This paper explores customer churn prediction, based on various statistical & machine learning models and uses under-sampling, to improve the predictive power of these models. The results show that out of the various machine learning models, Random Forest which predicts the churn with 78% accuracy, has been found to be the most powerful model for the scenario. Customer vintage, customer’s age, average balance, occupation code, population code, average withdrawal amount, and an average number of transactions were found to be the variables with high predictive power for the churn prediction model. The model can be deployed by the commercial banks in order to avoid the customer churn so that they may retain the funds, which are kept by savings bank (SB) customers. The article suggests a customized campaign to be initiated by commercial banks to avoid SB customer churn. Hence, by giving better customer satisfaction and experience, the commercial banks can limit the customer churn and maintain their deposits.

Keywords: savings bank, customer churn, customer retention, random forests, machine learning, under-sampling

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Authors: Pitchayanin Sukholthaman

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Gradually accumulated, the enormous amount of waste has caused tremendous adverse impacts to the world. Bangkok, Thailand, is chosen as an urban city of a developing country having coped with serious MSW problems due to the vast amount of waste generated, ineffective and improper waste management problems. Waste generation is the most important factor for successful planning of MSW management system. Thus, the prediction of MSW is a very important role to understand MSW distribution and characteristic; to be used for strategic planning issues. This study aims to find influencing variables that affect the amount of Bangkok MSW generation quantity.

Keywords: MSW generation, MSW quantity prediction, MSW management, multiple regression, Bangkok

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Authors: Kudzanayi Chiteka, Wellington Makondo

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The whole world is on the drive to go green owing to the negative effects of burning fossil fuels. Therefore, there is immediate need to identify and utilise alternative renewable energy sources. Among these energy sources solar energy is one of the most dominant in Zimbabwe. Solar power plants used to generate electricity are entirely dependent on solar radiation. For planning purposes, solar radiation values should be known in advance to make necessary arrangements to minimise the negative effects of the absence of solar radiation due to cloud cover and other naturally occurring phenomena. This research focused on the prediction of Global Horizontal Irradiation values for the sixth day given values for the past five days. Artificial intelligence techniques were used in this research. Three models were developed based on Support Vector Machines, Radial Basis Function, and Feed Forward Back-Propagation Artificial neural network. Results revealed that Support Vector Machines gives the best results compared to the other two with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2%, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.05kWh/m²/day root mean square (RMS) error of 0.15kWh/m²/day and a coefficient of determination of 0.990. The other predictive models had prediction accuracies of MAPEs of 4.5% and 6% respectively for Radial Basis Function and Feed Forward Back-propagation Artificial neural network. These two models also had coefficients of determination of 0.975 and 0.970 respectively. It was found that prediction of GHI values for the future days is possible using artificial intelligence-based predictive models.

Keywords: solar energy, global horizontal irradiation, artificial intelligence, predictive models

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Authors: J. H. Ahn, J. W. Moon, S. J. Noh, H. K. Kim

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Nowadays, as the ecology of Lake Shihwa has been restored significantly, the urban development is in progress around Lake Shihwa areas. Each development project includes a plan on utilizing waterfront areas, but there exist a difference on waterfront design criteria between experts and users. Therefore, it is significant to analyze preferences in design elements of existing waterfront parks around Lake Shihwa (Ansan Waterfront Park, Shihwa Reed Wetland Park, and T-Light Park) based on users’ perspectives and to reflect the result on upcoming waterfront developments. This study derives design elements on waterfront parks from literature reviews. The survey questionnaires are created based on these classified elements and the surveys are conducted to experts and users with in-depth interviews. For all three parks, several park facilities appear to be not recognized by users. Therefore, the circulation path should be introduced in guide maps and information activities and furthermore in disposition of park facilities.

Keywords: design elements, lake Shihwa, preference, waterfront park

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Authors: Ying Yuken, Pengfei Wang, Zhang Qilin, Xiao Ben

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Based on the main entrance and garden area (ME&G) project of Shanghai Disneyland, this paper introduces the application of BIM technology in this kind of low-rise comprehensive building with complex facade system, electromechanical system and decoration system. BIM technology is applied to the whole process of design, construction and completion of the whole project. With the construction of BIM application framework of the whole project, the key points of BIM modeling methods of different systems and the integration and coordination of BIM models are elaborated in detail. The specific application methods of BIM technology in similar complex low-rise building projects are sorted out. Finally, the paper summarizes the benefits of BIM technology application, and puts forward some suggestions for BIM management mode and practical application of similar projects in the future.

Keywords: BIM, complex low-rise building, BIM modeling, model integration and coordination, 3D scanning

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Authors: Narjes Ebrahimi, Soheila Alyasin, Navid Nezafat, Hossein Esmailzadeh, Younes Ghasemi, Seyed Hesamodin Nabavizadeh

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Immunotherapy with allergy vaccines is of great importance in allergen-specific immunotherapy. In recent years, B-cell epitope-based vaccines have attracted considerable attention and the prediction of epitopes is crucial to design these types of allergy vaccines. B-cell epitopes might be linear or conformational. The prerequisite for the identification of conformational epitopes is the information about allergens' tertiary structures. Bioinformatics approaches have paved the way towards the design of epitope-based allergy vaccines through the prediction of tertiary structures and epitopes. Mite allergens are one of the major allergy contributors. Several mite allergens can elicit allergic reactions; however, their structures and epitopes are not well established. So, B-cell epitopes of various groups of mite allergens (24 allergens in 6 allergen groups) were predicted in the present work. Tertiary structures of 17 allergens with unknown structure were predicted and refined with RaptorX and GalaxyRefine servers, respectively. The predicted structures were further evaluated by Rampage, ProSA-web, ERRAT and Verify 3D servers. Linear and conformational B-cell epitopes were identified with Ellipro, Bcepred, and DiscoTope 2 servers. To improve the accuracy level, consensus epitopes were selected. Fifty-four conformational and 133 linear consensus epitopes were predicted. Furthermore, overlapping epitopes in each allergen group were defined, following the sequence alignment of the allergens in each group. The predicted epitopes were also compared with the experimentally identified epitopes. The presented results provide valuable information for further studies about allergy vaccine design.

Keywords: B-cell epitope, Immunotherapy, In silico prediction, Mite allergens, Tertiary structure

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Authors: Nieves M. C. Talavera-Prieto, Abel G. M. Ferreira, António T. G. Portugal, Rui J. Moreira, Jaime B. Santos

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The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1 MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg.m^-3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg•m-3 corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about 3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application. These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of density prediction at high pressure when compared with other equations of state.

Keywords: biodiesel density, correlation, equation of state, prediction

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Authors: A. Brahma

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Analysis of deferred deformations of concrete under sustained load shows that the creep has a leading role on deferred deformations of concrete structures. Knowledge of the creep characteristics of concrete is a Necessary starting point in the design of structures for crack control. Such knowledge will enable the designer to estimate the probable deformation in pre-stressed concrete or reinforced and the appropriate steps can be taken in design to accommodate this movement. In this study, we propose a prediction model that involves the acting principal parameters on the deferred behaviour of concrete structures. For the estimation of the model parameters Levenberg-Marquardt method has proven very satisfactory. A confrontation between the experimental results and the predictions of models designed shows that it is well suited to describe the evolution of the creep of concrete structures.

Keywords: concrete structure, creep, modelling, prediction

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Authors: Wei Tian, Jie Liang, Hammad Naveed

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Beta-barrel membrane proteins are found in the outer membrane of gram-negative bacteria, mitochondria, and chloroplasts. They carry out diverse biological functions, including pore formation, membrane anchoring, enzyme activity, and bacterial virulence. In addition, beta-barrel membrane proteins increasingly serve as scaffolds for bacterial surface display and nanopore-based DNA sequencing. Due to difficulties in experimental structure determination, they are sparsely represented in the protein structure databank and computational methods can help to understand their biophysical principles. We have developed a novel computational method to predict the 3D structure of beta-barrel membrane proteins using evolutionary coupling (EC) constraints and a reduced state space. Combined with an empirical potential function, we can successfully predict strand register at > 80% accuracy for a set of 49 non-homologous proteins with known structures. This is a significant improvement from previous results using EC alone (44%) and using empirical potential function alone (73%). Our method is general and can be applied to genome-wide structural prediction.

Keywords: beta-barrel membrane proteins, structure prediction, evolutionary constraints, reduced state space

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Authors: Ghaleb Y. Abbasi, Satanay Alhiary

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This paper focused on software testing phase of activities, types, techniques, teams and methods under agile project management (APM) in the Jordanian software industry. The effect of using agile principles and practices on testing process in software development life cycle (SDLC) was analyzed in order to create full view of the agile testing aspects such as phases, levels, types, methods, team and customers. Qualitative and quantitative research methods were utilized to cover earlier literature and collect data via web survey and short interviews in Jordanian software companies. Results indicated that agile testing had positive influence on quality of product, team performance, and customer satisfaction with a rate above 80%. APM is a powerful practice of moving software project forward in current markets with a rate above 51% by early involvement of testing activities in development.

Keywords: agile project management, software development life cycle, agile methods, agile testing, software testing

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Authors: Firas Mohamad Al-Sabek

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The Purpose of the paper is to examine the most critical and important factor which will affect the implementation of Total Quality Management (TQM) in the construction industry in the United Arab Emirates. It also examines the most effected Project outcome from implementing TQM. A framework was also proposed depending on the literature studies. The method used in this paper is a quantitative study. A survey with a sample of 60 respondents was created and distributed in a construction company in Abu Dhabi, which includes 15 questions to examine the most critical factor that will affect the implementation of TQM in addition to the most effected project outcome from implementing TQM. The survey showed that management commitment is the most important factor in implementing TQM in a construction company. Also it showed that Project cost is most effected outcome from the implementation of TQM. Management commitment is very important for implementing TQM in any company. If the management loose interest in quality then everyone in the organization will do so. The success of TQM will depend mostly on the top of the pyramid. Also cost is reduced and money is saved when the project team implement TQM. While if no quality measures are present within the team, the project will suffer a commercial failure. Based on literature, more factors can be examined and added to the model. In addition, more construction companies could be surveyed in order to obtain more accurate results. Also this study could be conducted outside the United Arab Emirates for further enchantment.

Keywords: construction project, total quality management, management commitment, cost, theoretical framework

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Authors: E. Akpinar, A. Erol, M.F. Cakir

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Precast reinforced concrete (RC) structures are excellent alternatives for construction world all over the globe, thanks to their rapid erection phase, ease mounting process, better quality and reasonable prices. Such structures are rather popular for industrial buildings. For the sake of economic importance of such industrial buildings as well as significance of safety, like every other type of structures, performance assessment and structural risk analysis are important. Fragility curves are powerful tools for damage projection and assessment for any sort of building as well as precast structures. In this study, a comparative review of current knowledge on fragility analysis of industrial precast RC structures were presented and findings in previous studies were compiled. Effects of different structural variables, parameters and building geometries as well as soil conditions on fragility analysis of precast structures are reviewed. It was aimed to briefly present the information in the literature about the procedure of damage probability prediction including fragility curves for such industrial facilities. It is found that determination of the aforementioned structural parameters as well as selecting analysis procedure are critically important for damage prediction of industrial precast RC structures using fragility curves.

Keywords: damage prediction, fragility curve, industrial buildings, precast reinforced concrete structures

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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In the dynamic landscape of project management, scope changes are an inevitable reality that can significantly impact project performance. These changes, whether initiated by stakeholders, external factors, or internal project dynamics, can lead to cost overruns and schedule delays. Accurately predicting the consequences of these changes is crucial for effective project control and informed decision-making. This study aims to develop predictive models to estimate the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule using machine learning techniques. The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing detailed information on project tasks, including the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), task type, productivity rate, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, task dependencies, scope change magnitude, and scope change timing. Multiple machine learning models are developed and evaluated to predict the impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. These models include Linear Regression, Decision Tree, Ridge Regression, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and XGBoost. The dataset is split into training and testing sets, and the models are trained using the preprocessed data. Cross-validation techniques are employed to assess the robustness and generalization ability of the models. The performance of the models is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared. Residual plots are generated to assess the goodness of fit and identify any patterns or outliers. Hyperparameter tuning is performed to optimize the XGBoost model and improve its predictive accuracy. The feature importance analysis reveals the relative significance of different project attributes in predicting the impact on cost and schedule. Key factors such as productivity rate, scope change magnitude, task dependencies, estimated cost, actual cost, duration, and specific WBS elements are identified as influential predictors. The study highlights the importance of considering both cost and schedule implications when managing scope changes. The developed predictive models provide project managers with a data-driven tool to proactively assess the potential impact of scope changes on project cost and schedule. By leveraging these insights, project managers can make informed decisions, optimize resource allocation, and develop effective mitigation strategies. The findings of this research contribute to improved project planning, risk management, and overall project success.

Keywords: cost impact, machine learning, predictive modeling, schedule impact, scope changes

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Authors: Marjan Golmaryami, Marzieh Behzadi

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Recent developments in stock exchange highlight the need for an efficient and accurate method that helps stockholders make better decision. Since stock markets have lots of fluctuations during the time and different effective parameters, it is difficult to make good decisions. The purpose of this study is to employ artificial neural network (ANN) which can deal with time series data and nonlinear relation among variables to forecast next day stock price. Unlike other evolutionary algorithms which were utilized in stock exchange prediction, we trained our proposed neural network with metaheuristic bat algorithm, with fast and powerful convergence and applied it in stock price prediction for the first time. In order to prove the performance of the proposed method, this research selected a 7 year dataset from Parsian Bank stocks and after imposing data preprocessing, used 3 types of ANN (back propagation-ANN, particle swarm optimization-ANN and bat-ANN) to predict the closed price of stocks. Afterwards, this study engaged MATLAB to simulate 3 types of ANN, with the scoring target of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results may be adapted to other companies stocks too.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), bat algorithm, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO), stock exchange

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Authors: Rosdyana Mangir Irawan Kusuma, Wei-Chun Kao, Ho-Thi Trang, Yu-Yen Ou, Kai-Lung Hua

Abstract:

Stock market prediction is still a challenging problem because there are many factors that affect the stock market price such as company news and performance, industry performance, investor sentiment, social media sentiment, and economic factors. This work explores the predictability in the stock market using deep convolutional network and candlestick charts. The outcome is utilized to design a decision support framework that can be used by traders to provide suggested indications of future stock price direction. We perform this work using various types of neural networks like convolutional neural network, residual network and visual geometry group network. From stock market historical data, we converted it to candlestick charts. Finally, these candlestick charts will be feed as input for training a convolutional neural network model. This convolutional neural network model will help us to analyze the patterns inside the candlestick chart and predict the future movements of the stock market. The effectiveness of our method is evaluated in stock market prediction with promising results; 92.2% and 92.1 % accuracy for Taiwan and Indonesian stock market dataset respectively.

Keywords: candlestick chart, deep learning, neural network, stock market prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: Pornpote Nusen, Manop Kaewmoracharoen

Abstract:

In recent years, there was an observable shift in fully developed countries from constructing new buildings to modifying existing buildings. The issue was that although an effective instrument like BIM (Building Information Modeling) was well developed for constructing new buildings, it was not widely used to renovate old buildings. BIM was accepted as an effective means to overcome common managerial problems such as project delay, cost overrun, and poor quality of the project life cycle. It was recently introduced in Thailand and rarely used in a renovation project. Today, in Thailand, BIM is mostly used for creating aesthetic 3D models and quantity takeoff purposes, though it can be an effective tool to use as a project management tool in planning and scheduling. Now the governmental sector in Thailand begins to recognize the uses of using BIM to manage a construction project, but the knowledge about the BIM implementation to governmental construction projects is underdeveloped. Further studies need to be conducted to maximize its advantages for the governmental sector. An educational extra large governmental building of 17,000 square-meters was used in this research. It is currently under construction for a two-year renovation project. BIM models of the building for the exterior and interior areas were created for the whole five floors. Then 4D BIM with combination of 3D BIM plus time was created for planning and scheduling. Three focus groups had been done with executive committee, contractors, and officers of the building to discuss the possibility of usage and usefulness of BIM approach over the traditional process. Several aspects were discussed in the positive sides, especially several foreseen problems, such as the inadequate accessibility of ways, the altered ceiling levels, the impractical construction plan created through a traditional approach, and the lack of constructability information. However, for some parties, the cost of BIM implementation was a concern, though, this study believes, its uses outweigh the cost.

Keywords: building information modeling, extra large building, governmental building renovation, project management, renovation, 4D BIM

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Charles Amoatey

Abstract:

The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 452