Search results for: unit root test

Authors: Seyeh Hassan Eftekhar Afzali, Hamid Mohammadi

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Pistachio is like almond but the second cycle of growth (third phase) has rather fast growth. This is caused to add final mass of product. When the germ grows, it and its cover are reached to the final size during six week period. As starting the second phase, the lignifications of pericarp is begun and continued for 4 or 6 weeks. Physiological maturity or easy separation of green from scutum is specified. This test was done according to random blocks of 6 orchards in the type of Ahmad Aghaie with 4 iterations. Vegetative properties of branch are investigated. The results of the bunch numbers on the growth of branch in current year are shown that the most growth of branch is happened by trimming of one and two bunches of the branch and the most diameter of the branch is happened by trimming of one to four bunches of branch. Trimming of a bunch is caused the most number of pistachio products in the bunch.

Keywords: pistachio, cluster, bud, fruit, branch

Procedia PDF Downloads 479

Authors: Farhana Arzu, Roslan Hashim

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Renewable energy is the only alternative sources of energy to meet the current energy demand, healthy environment and future growth which is considered essential for essential sustainable development. Marine renewable energy is one of the major means to meet this demand. Turbines (both horizontal and vertical) play a vital role for extraction of tidal energy. The influence of swept area on the performance improvement of tidal turbine is a vital factor to study for the reduction of relatively high power generation cost in marine industry. This study concentrates on performance investigation of variable length blade tidal turbine concept that has already been proved as an efficient way to improve energy extraction in the wind industry. The concept of variable blade length utilizes the idea of increasing swept area through the turbine blade extension when the tidal stream velocity falls below the rated condition to maximize energy capture while blade retracts above rated condition. A three bladed horizontal axis variable length blade horizontal axis tidal turbine was modelled by modifying a standard fixed length blade turbine. Classical blade element momentum theory based numerical investigation has been carried out using QBlade software to predict performance. The results obtained from QBlade were compared with the available published results and found very good agreement. Three major performance parameters (i.e., thrust, moment, and power coefficients) and power output for different blade extensions were studied and compared with a standard fixed bladed baseline turbine at certain operational conditions. Substantial improvement in performance coefficient is observed with the increase in swept area of the turbine rotor. Power generation is found to increase in great extent when operating at below rated tidal stream velocity reducing the associated cost per unit electric power generation.

Keywords: variable length blade, performance, tidal turbine, power generation

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Authors: B. Sellami, M. Belloufi

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Conjugate gradient methods are an important class of methods for unconstrained optimization, especially for large-scale problems. Recently, they have been much studied. In this paper, we propose a new two-parameter family of conjugate gradient methods for unconstrained optimization. The two-parameter family of methods not only includes the already existing three practical nonlinear conjugate gradient methods, but also has other family of conjugate gradient methods as subfamily. The two-parameter family of methods with the Wolfe line search is shown to ensure the descent property of each search direction. Some general convergence results are also established for the two-parameter family of methods. The numerical results show that this method is efficient for the given test problems. In addition, the methods related to this family are uniformly discussed.

Keywords: unconstrained optimization, conjugate gradient method, line search, global convergence

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Authors: Haluk Altay, Bilal Yücel, Berkcan Ulcay, Yücel Aydın

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In this study, the design, integration, and testing of measurement systems required for performance tests of jet engines used in small-scale unmanned aerial vehicles are described. Performance tests are carried out as thrust and fuel consumption. For thrust tests, measurements are made using a load cell. Amplifier and filter designs have been made for the load cell to measure accurately to meet the desired sensitivity. It was calibrated by making multiple measurements at different thrust levels. As a result of these processes, the cycle thrust graph was obtained. For fuel consumption tests, tests are carried out using a flow meter. Performance graphics were obtained by finding the fuel consumption for different RPM levels of the engine.

Keywords: jet engine, UAV, experimental test, loadcell, thrust, fuel consumption

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Authors: Anil Kumar, Diwakar Aggarwal, M. Sudhakara Reddy

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The wood of Eucalyptus, Populus and bamboos are some important species used as raw material for the manufacture of pulp. However, higher levels of lignin pose a problem during Kraft pulping and yield of pulp is also lower. In order to increase the yield of pulp per unit wood and reduce the use of chemicals during kraft pulping it is important to reduce the lignin content and/or increase cellulose content in wood. Cellulose biosynthesis in wood takes place by the coordinated action of many enzymes. The two important enzymes are KORRIGAN and SUCROSE SYNTHASE. KORRIGAN (Endo-1,4--glucanase) is implicated in the process of editing growing cellulose chains and improvement of the crystallinity of produced cellulose, whereas SUCROSE SYNTHASE is involved in providing substrate (UDP-glucose) for growing cellulose chains. The present study was aimed at the cloning, characterization and overexpression of these genes in Eucalyptus and Populus. An efficient shoot organogenesis protocol from leaf explants taken from micro shoots of the species has been developed. Agrobacterium mediated genetic transformation using Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain EHA105 and LBA4404 harboring binary vector pBI121 was achieved. Both the genes were cloned from cDNA library of Populus deltoides. These were subsequently characterized using various bioinformatics tools. The cloned genes were then inserted into pBI121 under the CaMV35S promotors replacing GUS gene. The constructs were then mobilized into above strains of Agrobacterium and used for the transformation work. Subsequently, genetic transformation of these clones with target genes following already developed protocol is in progress. Four transgenic lines of Eucalyptus tereticornis overexpressing Korrigan gene under the strong constitutive promoters CaMV35S have been developed, which are being further evaluated. Work on development of more transgenic lines overexpressing these genes in Populus and Eucalyptus is also in progress. This presentation will focus on important developments in this direction.

Keywords: Eucalyptus tereticornis, genetic transformation, Kraft pulping Populus deltoides

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Authors: Indujeeva Keerthila Peiris

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The secular view of mindfulness has some connotation to the original meaning of mindfulness mentioned in the Theravada Buddhist texts (Pāli Canon), but there is a substantial difference in the meaning of the two. Secular Mindfulness Based Interventions (MBI) focus on stilling the mind, which may provide short-term benefits and help individuals to deal with physical pain, grief, and distress. However, as with many popular educational innovations, the foundational values of mindfulness strategies have been distorted and subverted in a number of instances in which ‘McMindfulness’ programmes have been implemented with a view to reducing mindfulness mediation as a self-help technique that is easily misappropriated for the exclusive pursuit of corporate objectives, employee pacification, and commercial profit. The intention of this paper is not to critique the misappropriations of mindfulness. Instead, to go back to the root source and bring insights from the Buddhist Pāli Canon and its associated teachings on mindfulness in its own terms. In the Buddha’s discourses, as preserved in the Pāli Canon, there is nothing more significant than the understanding and practice of ‘Satipatthãna’. The Satipatthāna Sutta , the ‘Discourse on the Establishment of Mindfulness,’ opens with a proclamation highlighting both the purpose of this training and its methodology. The right practice of mindfulness is the gateway to understanding the Buddha’s teaching. However, although this concept is widely discussed among the Dhamma practitioners, it is the least understood one of them all. The purpose of this paper is to understand deeper meaning of mindfulness as it was originally intended by the Teacher. The natural state of mind is that it wanders. It wanders into the past, the present, and the future. One’s ability to hold attention to a mind object (emotion, thought, feeling, sensation, sense impression) called ‘concentration’. The intentional concentration process does not lead to wisdom. However, the development of wisdom starts when the mind is calm, concentrated, and unified. The practice of insight contemplation aims at gaining a direct understanding of the real nature of phenomena. According to the Buddha’s teaching, there are three basic facts of all existence: 1) impermanence (anicca in Pāli) ; 2) fabrication (also commonly known as suffering, unsatisfactoriness, sankhara or dukka in Pāli); 3) not-self (insubstantiality or impersonality, annatta in Pāli ). The entire Buddhist doctrine is based on these three facts. The problem is our ignorance covers reality. It is not that a person sees the emptiness of them or that we try to see the emptiness of our experience by conceptually thinking that they are empty. It is an experiential outcome that happens when the cause-and- effect overrides the self-view (sakkaya dhitti), and ignorance is known as ignorance and eradicated once and for all. Therefore, the right view (samma dhitti) is the starting point of the path, not ethical conduct (sila) or samadhi (jhana). In order to develop the right view, we need to first listen to the correct Dhamma and possess Yoniso manasikara (right comprehension) to know the five aggregates as five aggregates.

Keywords: mindfulness, spirituality, buddhism, pali canon

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Authors: Firooz Bakhtiari-Nejad, Hamidreza Rostami, Meysam Mirzaee, Mona Zandbaf

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Dynamic tests are an important step of the design of engineering structures, because the accuracy of predictions of theoretical–numerical procedures can be assessed. In experimental test of moving loads that is one of the major research topics, the load is modeled as a simple moving mass or a small vehicle. This paper deals with the applicability of Non-Contact Moving Load (NML) for vibration analysis. For this purpose, an experimental set-up is designed to generate the different types of NML including constant and harmonic. The proposed method relies on pressurized air which is useful, especially when dealing with fragile or sensitive structures. To demonstrate the performance of this system, the set-up is employed for a modal analysis of a beam and detecting crack of the beam. The obtained results indicate that the experimental set-up for NML can be an attractive alternative to the moving load problems.

Keywords: experimental analysis, moving load, non-contact excitation, materials engineering

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Authors: Arvind Salem

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Voters across the country are transferring the power of redistricting from the state legislatures to commissions to secure “fairer” districts by curbing the influence of gerrymandering on redistricting. Gerrymandering, intentionally drawing distorted districts to achieve political advantage, has become extremely prevalent, generating widespread voter dissatisfaction and resulting in states adopting commissions for redistricting. However, the efficacy of these commissions is dubious, with some arguing that they constitute a panacea for gerrymandering, while others contend that commissions have relatively little effect on gerrymandering. A result showing that commissions are effective would allay these fears, supplying ammunition for activists across the country to advocate for commissions in their state and reducing the influence of gerrymandering across the nation. However, a result against commissions may reaffirm doubts about commissions and pressure lawmakers to make improvements to commissions or even abandon the commission system entirely. Additionally, these commissions are publicly funded: so voters have a financial interest and responsibility to know if these commissions are effective. Currently, nine states place commissions in charge of redistricting, Arizona, California, Colorado, Michigan, Idaho, Montana, Washington, and New Jersey (Hawaii also has a commission but will be excluded for reasons mentioned later). This study compares the degree of gerrymandering in the 2022 election (“after”) to the election in which voters decided to adopt commissions (“before”). The before-election provides a valuable benchmark for assessing the efficacy of commissions since voters in those elections clearly found the districts to be unfair; therefore, comparing the current election to that one is a good way to determine if commissions have improved the situation. At the time Hawaii adopted commissions, it was merely a single at-large district, so it is before metrics could not be calculated, and it was excluded. This study will use three methods to quantify the degree of gerrymandering: the efficiency gap, the percentage of seats and the percentage of votes difference, and the mean-median difference. Each of these metrics has unique advantages and disadvantages, but together, they form a balanced approach to quantifying gerrymandering. The study uses a Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test with a null hypothesis that the value of the metrics is greater than or equal to after the election than before and an alternative hypothesis that the value of these metrics is greater in the before the election than after using a 0.05 significance level and an expected difference of 0. Accepting the alternative hypothesis would constitute evidence that commissions reduce gerrymandering to a statistically significant degree. However, this study could not conclude that commissions are effective. The p values obtained for all three metrics (p=0.42 for the efficiency gap, p=0.94 for the percentage of seats and percentage of votes difference, and p=0.47 for the mean-median difference) were extremely high and far from the necessary value needed to conclude that commissions are effective. These results halt optimism about commissions and should spur serious discussion about the effectiveness of these commissions and ways to change them moving forward so that they can accomplish their goal of generating fairer districts.

Keywords: commissions, elections, gerrymandering, redistricting

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Authors: Mohammed S. Bhader, Abdullah A. Ghaddaf, Anas Alamoudi, Amal Abualola, Renad Kalantan, Noura Alkhulaifi, Ibrahim Halawani, Mohammed Alhindi

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Background: Noninvasive neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) is a relatively new mode of noninvasive ventilation with promising clinical and patient-ventilator outcomes for preterm infants. The aim of this systematic review was to compare NAVA to nasal continuous or positive airway pressure (NCPAP) or intermittent positive airway pressure (NIPP) for preterm infants. Methods: We searched the online databases Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared NAVA to NCPAP or NIPP for preterm infants < 37 weeks gestational age. We sought to evaluate the following outcomes: noninvasive intubation failure rate, desaturation rate, the fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2), and length of stay in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). We used the mean difference (MD) to represent continuous outcomes, while the odds ratio (OR) was used to represent dichotomous outcomes. Results: A total of 11 RCTs that enrolled 429 preterm infants were deemed eligible. NAVA showed similar clinical outcomes to NCPAP or NIPP with respect to noninvasive intubation failure (RR for NAVA versus NCPAP: 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.49 to 1.37), desaturation rate (RR for NAVA versus NCPAP: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.36 to 1.29; RR for NAVA versus NIPP: 0.58, 95%CI: 0.08 to 4.25), FiO2 (MD for NAVA versus NCPAP: –0.01, 95%CI: –0.04 to 0.02; MD for NAVA versus NIPP: –7.16, 95%CI: –22.63 to 8.31), and length of stay in the NICU (MD for NAVA versus NCPAP: 1.34, 95%CI: –4.17 to 6.85). Conclusion: NAVA showed similar clinical and ventilator-related outcomes compared to the usual care noninvasive respiratory support measures NCPAP or NIPP for preterm infants.

Keywords: preterm infants, noninvasive neurally adjusted ventilatory assist, NIV-NAVA, non-invasive ventilation, nasal continuous or positive airway pressure, NCPAP, intermittent positive airway pressure ventilation, NIPP, respiratory distress syndrome, RDS

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Authors: Zhuoran Li, Guan Qin

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A robust and efficient compositional equilibrium characterization model for hydrate-containing systems is required, especially for time-critical simulations such as subsea pipeline flow assurance analysis, compositional simulation in hydrate reservoirs etc. A multiphase flash calculation framework, which combines Gibbs energy minimization function and cubic plus association (CPA) EoS, is developed to describe the highly non-ideal phase behavior of hydrate-containing systems. A non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach for the trust-region sub-problem is selected to guarantee efficiency. The developed flash model is based on the state-of-the-art objective function proposed by Michelsen to minimize the Gibbs energy of the multiphase system. It is conceivable that a hydrate-containing system always contains polar components (such as water and hydrate inhibitors), introducing hydrogen bonds to influence phase behavior. Thus, the cubic plus associating (CPA) EoS is utilized to compute the thermodynamic parameters. The solid solution theory proposed by van der Waals and Platteeuw is applied to represent hydrate phase parameters. The trust-region method combined with the trust-region sub-problem non-iterative eigenvalue problem-solving approach is utilized to ensure fast convergence. The developed multiphase flash model's accuracy performance is validated by three available models (one published and two commercial models). Hundreds of published hydrate-containing system equilibrium experimental data are collected to act as the standard group for the accuracy test. The accuracy comparing results show that our model has superior performances over two models and comparable calculation accuracy to CSMGem. Efficiency performance test also has been carried out. Because the trust-region method can determine the optimization step's direction and size simultaneously, fast solution progress can be obtained. The comparison results show that less iteration number is needed to optimize the objective function by utilizing trust-region methods than applying line search methods. The non-iterative eigenvalue problem approach also performs faster computation speed than the conventional iterative solving algorithm for the trust-region sub-problem, further improving the calculation efficiency. A new thermodynamic framework of the multiphase flash model for the hydrate-containing system has been constructed in this work. Sensitive analysis and numerical experiments have been carried out to prove the accuracy and efficiency of this model. Furthermore, based on the current thermodynamic model in the oil and gas industry, implementing this model is simple.

Keywords: equation of state, hydrates, multiphase equilibrium, trust-region method

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Authors: Jiao F. Huang, Shi Chen, Shu C. Duan, Gang H. Wang

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Due to its complex spatial structure as well as dynamic temporal evolution, an analytic solution of an X-pinch process is out of question, and numerical simulation becomes an important tool in X-pinch studies. Intrinsically, simulations of X-pinch are three-dimensional (3D) because of the specific structure of its load. Furthermore, in order to resolve both its μm-scales and ns-durations, fine spatial mesh grid and short time steps are usually adopted. The resulting large computational scales make the parallelization of codes a vital problem to be solved if any practical simulations are to be carried out. In this work, we report OpenMP parallelization of our 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code FOI-PERFECT. Results of test runs confirm that computational efficiency has been improved after parallelization, and both the sequential and parallel versions give the same physical results under the same initial conditions.

Keywords: MHD simulation, OpenMP, parallelization, X-pinch

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Authors: P. Serrano-Pérez, M. C. Rodríguez-Molina, C. Palo, E. Palo, A. Lacasa

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Phytophthora nicotianae is the principal causal agent of root and crown rot disease of red pepper plants in Extremadura (Western Spain). There is a need to develop a biologically-based method of soil disinfestation that facilitates profitable and sustainable production without the use of chemical fumigants. Anaerobic Soil Disinfestation (ASD), as well know as biodisinfestation, has been shown to control a wide range of soil-borne pathogens and nematodes in numerous crop production systems. This method implies soil wetting, incorporation of a easily decomposable carbon-rich organic amendment and covering with plastic film for several weeks. ASD with rapeseed cake (var. Tocatta, a glucosinolates-free variety) used as C-source was assayed in spring 2014, before the pepper crop establishment. The field experiment was conducted at the Agricultural Research Centre Finca La Orden (Southwestern Spain) and the treatments were: rapeseed cake (RCP); rapeseed cake without plastic cover (RC); control non-amendment (CP) and control non-amendment without plastic cover (C). The experimental design was a randomized complete block design with four replicates and a plot size of 5 x 5 m. On 26 March, rapeseed cake (1 kg·m-2) was incorporated into the soil with a rotovator. Biological probes with the inoculum were buried at 15 and 30-cm depth (biological probes were previously prepared with 100 g of disinfected soil inoculated with chlamydospores (chlam) of P. nicotianae P13 isolate [100 chlam·g-1 of soil] and wrapped in agryl cloth). Sprinkler irrigation was run until field capacity and the corresponding plots were covered with transparent plastic (PE 0.05 mm). On 6 May plastics were removed, the biological probes were dug out and a bioassay was established. One pepper seedling at the 2 to 4 true-leaves stage was transplanted in the soil from each biological probe. Plants were grown in a climatic chamber and disease symptoms were recorded every week during 2 months. Fragments of roots and crown of symptomatic plants were analyzed on NARPH media and soil from rizospheres was analyzed using carnation petals as baits. Results of “survival” were expressed as the percentage of soil samples where P. nicotianae was detected and results of “infectivity” were expressed as the percentage of diseased plants. No differences were detected in deep effect. Infectivity of P. nicotianae chlamydospores was successfully reduced in RCP treatment (4.2% of infectivity) compared with the controls (41.7% of infectivity). The pattern of survival was similar to infectivity observed by the bioassay: 21% of survival in RCP; 79% in CP; 83% in C and 87% in RC. Although ASD may be an effective alternative to chemical fumigants to pest management, more research is necessary to show their impact on the microbial community and chemistry of the soil.

Keywords: biodisinfestation, BSD, soil fumigant alternatives, organic amendments

Procedia PDF Downloads 222

Authors: M. Mashiur Rahman, Ulrik Birk Henriksen, Jesper Ahrenfeldt, Maria Puig Arnavat

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Using biomass gasification to make producer gas is one of the promising sustainable energy options available for small scale plant and rural applications for power and electricity. Tar content in producer gas is the main problem if it is used directly as a fuel. A low-tar biomass (LTB) gasifier of approximately 30 kW capacity has been developed to solve this. Moving bed gasifier with internal recirculation of pyrolysis gas has been the basic principle of the LTB gasifier. The gasifier focuses on the concept of mixing the pyrolysis gases with gasifying air and burning the mixture in separate combustion chamber. Five tests were carried out with the use of wood pellets and wood chips separately, with moisture content of 9-34%. The LTB gasifier offers excellent opportunities for handling extremely low-tar in the producer gas. The gasifiers producer gas had an extremely low tar content of 21.2 mg/Nm³ (avg.) and an average lower heating value (LHV) of 4.69 MJ/Nm³. Tar content found in different tests in the ranges of 10.6-29.8 mg/Nm³. This low tar content makes the producer gas suitable for direct use in internal combustion engine. Using mass and energy balances, the average gasifier capacity and cold gas efficiency (CGE) observed 23.1 kW and 82.7% for wood chips, and 33.1 kW and 60.5% for wood pellets, respectively. Average heat loss in term of higher heating value (HHV) observed 3.2% of thermal input for wood chips and 1% for wood pellets, where heat loss was found 1% of thermal input in term of enthalpy. Thus, the LTB gasifier performs better compared to typical gasifiers in term of heat loss. Equivalence ratio (ER) in the range of 0.29 to 0.41 gives better performance in terms of heating value and CGE. The specific gas production yields at the above ER range were in the range of 2.1-3.2 Nm³/kg. Heating value and CGE changes proportionally with the producer gas yield. The average gas compositions (H₂-19%, CO-19%, CO₂-10%, CH₄-0.7% and N₂-51%) obtained for wood chips are higher than the typical producer gas composition. Again, the temperature profile of the LTB gasifier observed relatively low temperature compared to typical moving bed gasifier. The average partial oxidation zone temperature of 970°C observed for wood chips. The use of separate combustor in the partial oxidation zone substantially lowers the bed temperature to 750°C. During the test, the engine was started and operated completely with the producer gas. The engine operated well on the produced gas, and no deposits were observed in the engine afterwards. Part of the producer gas flow was used for engine operation, and corresponding electrical power was found to be 1.5 kW continuously, and maximum power of 2.5 kW was also observed, while maximum generator capacity is 3 kW. A thermodynamic equilibrium model is good agreement with the experimental results and correctly predicts the equilibrium bed temperature, gas composition, LHV of the producer gas and ER with the experimental data, when the heat loss of 4% of the energy input is considered.

Keywords: biomass gasification, low-tar biomass gasifier, tar elimination, engine, deposits, condensate

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Authors: Sihyun Park, Hyunwoo Kim, Wooyoung Jung, Dongwoo You

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Regular maintenance works are very important on the axial forces of the cable-band bolts in suspension bridges. The band bolts show stress reduction for several reasons, including cable wire creep, the bolt relaxation, load fluctuation and cable rearrangements, etc., with time. In this study, with respect to the stress reduction that occurs over time, we carried out the theoretical review of the main cause based on the field measurements. As a result, the main cause of reduction in the cable-band bolt axial force was confirmed by the plastic deformation of the zinc plating layer used in the main cable wire, and thus, the theoretical process was established for the practical use in the field.

Keywords: cable-band Bolts, field test, maintenance, stress reduction

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Authors: Johannes T. Tsoku, Teboho J. Mosikari, Diteboho Xaba, Thatoyaone Modise

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This paper examines the relationship between manufacturing growth and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data ranging from 2001 to 2014. The paper employed the Johansen cointegration to test the Kaldor’s hypothesis. The Johansen cointegration results revealed that there is a long run relationship between GDP, manufacturing, service and employment. The Granger causality results revealed that there is a unidirectional causality running from manufacturing growth to GDP growth. The overall findings of the study confirm that Kaldor’s first law of growth is applicable in South African economy. Therefore, investment strategies and policies should be alignment towards promoting growth in the manufacturing sector in order to boost the economic growth of South Africa.

Keywords: cointegration, economic growth, Kaldor’s law, manufacturing growth

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Authors: Amin Salighehdar, Ziwen Ye, Mingzhe Liu, Ionut Florescu, Alan F. Blumberg

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Storm surge is an abnormal water level caused by a storm. Accurate prediction of a storm surge is a challenging problem. Researchers developed various ensemble modeling techniques to combine several individual forecasts to produce an overall presumably better forecast. There exist some simple ensemble modeling techniques in literature. For instance, Model Output Statistics (MOS), and running mean-bias removal are widely used techniques in storm surge prediction domain. However, these methods have some drawbacks. For instance, MOS is based on multiple linear regression and it needs a long period of training data. To overcome the shortcomings of these simple methods, researchers propose some advanced methods. For instance, ENSURF (Ensemble SURge Forecast) is a multi-model application for sea level forecast. This application creates a better forecast of sea level using a combination of several instances of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). An ensemble dressing method is based on identifying best member forecast and using it for prediction. Our contribution in this paper can be summarized as follows. First, we investigate whether the ensemble models perform better than any single forecast. Therefore, we need to identify the single best forecast. We present a methodology based on a simple Bayesian selection method to select the best single forecast. Second, we present several new and simple ways to construct ensemble models. We use correlation and standard deviation as weights in combining different forecast models. Third, we use these ensembles and compare with several existing models in literature to forecast storm surge level. We then investigate whether developing a complex ensemble model is indeed needed. To achieve this goal, we use a simple average (one of the simplest and widely used ensemble model) as benchmark. Predicting the peak level of Surge during a storm as well as the precise time at which this peak level takes place is crucial, thus we develop a statistical platform to compare the performance of various ensemble methods. This statistical analysis is based on root mean square error of the ensemble forecast during the testing period and on the magnitude and timing of the forecasted peak surge compared to the actual time and peak. In this work, we analyze four hurricanes: hurricanes Irene and Lee in 2011, hurricane Sandy in 2012, and hurricane Joaquin in 2015. Since hurricane Irene developed at the end of August 2011 and hurricane Lee started just after Irene at the beginning of September 2011, in this study we consider them as a single contiguous hurricane event. The data set used for this study is generated by the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System (NYHOPS). We find that even the simplest possible way of creating an ensemble produces results superior to any single forecast. We also show that the ensemble models we propose generally have better performance compared to the simple average ensemble technique.

Keywords: Bayesian learning, ensemble model, statistical analysis, storm surge prediction

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Authors: Esam Jassim

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Industries using conventional fossil fuels have an interest in better understanding the mechanism of particulate formation during combustion since such is responsible for emission of undesired inorganic elements that directly impact the atmospheric pollution level. Fine and ultrafine particulates have tendency to escape the flue gas cleaning devices to the atmosphere. They also preferentially collect on surfaces in power systems resulting in ascending in corrosion inclination, descending in the heat transfer thermal unit, and severe impact on human health. This adverseness manifests particularly in the regions of world where coal is the dominated source of energy for consumption. This study highlights the behavior of calcium transformation as mineral grains verses organically associated inorganic components during pulverized coal combustion. The influence of existing type of calcium on the coarse, fine and ultrafine mode formation mechanisms is also presented. The impact of two sub-bituminous coals on particle size and calcium composition evolution during combustion is to be assessed. Three mixed blends named Blends 1, 2, and 3 are selected according to the ration of coal A to coal B by weight. Calcium percentage in original coal increases as going from Blend 1 to 3. A mathematical model and a new approach of describing constituent distribution are proposed. Analysis of experiments of calcium distribution in ash is also modeled using Poisson distribution. A novel parameter, called elemental index λ, is introduced as a measuring factor of element distribution. Results show that calcium in ash that originally in coal as mineral grains has index of 17, whereas organically associated calcium transformed to fly ash shown to be best described when elemental index λ is 7. As an alkaline-earth element, calcium is considered the fundamental element responsible for boiler deficiency since it is the major player in the mechanism of ash slagging process. The mechanism of particle size distribution and mineral species of ash particles are presented using CCSEM and size-segregated ash characteristics. Conclusions are drawn from the analysis of pulverized coal ash generated from a utility-scale boiler.

Keywords: coal combustion, inorganic element, calcium evolution, fluid dynamics

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Authors: Mejri Achref

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This paper proposes an energy management strategy for an electrical hybrid vehicle which is composed of a Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) fuel cell and a supercapacitor storage device. In this paper, the mathematical model for the proposed power train, comprising the PEM Fuel Cell, supercapacitor, boost converter, inverter, and vehicular structure, was modeled in MATLAB/Simulink. The proposed algorithm is evaluated for the Highway Fuel Economy Test (HWFET) driving cycle. The obtained results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed energy management strategy in reduction of hydrogen consumption.

Keywords: proton exchange membrane fuel cell, hybrid vehicle, hydrogen consumption, energy management strategy

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Authors: Noppadon Sintuboon, Benjamas Sawatdipong, Anchalee Kongsuk

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This study was conducted to investigate the engineering parameters: compressional wave: Vp, shear wave: Vs, and density: ρ related to the dynamically geotechnical properties of soils compaction in the core of earth-filled dam located in northern part of Thailand by using multichannel analysis of surface wave (MASW) techniques. The Vp, Vs, and ρ from MASW were 1,624 - 1,649 m/s, 301-323 m/s, and 1,829 kg/m3, respectively. Those parameters were calculated to Poison’s ratio: ν (0.48), shear modulus: G (1.66 x 108 - 1.92 x 108 kg/m2), Vp/Vs ratio (5.10 – 5.39) and Standard Penetration Test (SPT) showing the dynamic characteristics of soil deformation and stress resulting from dynamic loads. The results of this study will be useful in primary evaluating the current condition and foundation of the dam and can be compared to the data from the laboratory in the future.

Keywords: earth-filled dam, MASW, dynamic elastic constant, shear wave

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Authors: Aishvarya Gupta, Keerthana Anand, Sasirekha Rengaraj, Latha Chathurvedula

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Introduction: Advances in assisted reproductive technology and increase in the proportion of infertile couples have both contributed to the steep increase in the incidence of twin pregnancies in past decades. Maternal and perinatal complications are higher in twins than in singleton pregnancies. Studies comparing the maternal and perinatal outcomes of ART twin pregnancies versus spontaneously conceived twin pregnancies report heterogeneous results making it unclear whether the complications are due to twin gestation per se or because of assisted reproductive techniques. The present study aims to compare both maternal and perinatal outcomes in twin pregnancies which are spontaneously conceived and after assisted conception methods, so that targeted steps can be undertaken in order to improve maternal and perinatal outcome of twins. Objectives: To study perinatal and maternal outcome in twin pregnancies conceived spontaneously as well as with assisted methods and compare the outcomes between the two groups. Setting: Women delivering at JIPMER (tertiary care institute), Pondicherry. Population: 380 women with twin pregnancies who delivered in JIPMER between June 2015 and March 2017 were included in the study. Methods: The study population was divided into two cohorts – one conceived by spontaneous conception and other by assisted reproductive methods. Association of various maternal and perinatal outcomes with the method of conception was assessed using chi square test or Student's t test as appropriate. Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to assess the independent association of assisted conception with maternal outcomes after adjusting for age, parity and BMI. Multiple logistic regression analysis was done to assess the independent association of assisted conception with perinatal outcomes after adjusting for age, parity, BMI, chorionicity, gestational age at delivery and presence of hypertension or gestational diabetes in the mother. A p value of < 0.05 was considered as significant. Result: There was increased proportion of women with GDM (21% v/s 4.29%) and premature rupture of membranes (35% v/s 22.85%) in the assisted conception group and more anemic women in the spontaneous group (71.27% v/s 55.1%). However assisted conception per se increased the incidence of GDM among twin gestations (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.34 – 8.61) and did not influence any of the other maternal outcomes. Among the perinatal outcomes, assisted conception per se increased the risk of having very preterm (<32 weeks) neonates (OR 3.013, 95% CI 1.432 – 6.337). The mean birth weight did not significantly differ between the two groups (p = 0.429). Though there were higher proportion of babies admitted to NICU in the assisted conception group (48.48% v/s 36.43%), assisted conception per se did not increase the risk of admission to NICU (OR 1.23, 95% CI 0.76 – 1.98). There was no significant difference in perinatal mortality rates between the two groups (p = 0.829). Conclusion: Assisted conception per se increases the risk of developing GDM in women with twin gestation and increases the risk of delivering very preterm babies. Hence measures should be taken to ensure appropriate screening methods for GDM and suitable neonatal care in such pregnancies.

Keywords: assisted conception, maternal outcomes, perinatal outcomes, twin gestation

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Authors: Dragan Ribarić

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We employ the so-called problem-dependent linked interpolation concept to develop two cubic 4-node quadrilateral Mindlin plate finite elements with 12 external degrees of freedom. In the problem-independent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions are independent of any problem material parameters and the rotation fields are not expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. On the contrary, in the problem-dependent linked interpolation, the interpolation functions depend on the material parameters and the rotation fields are expressed in terms of the nodal displacement parameters. Two cubic 4-node quadrilateral plate elements are presented, named Q4-U3 and Q4-U3R5. The first one is modelled with one displacement and two rotation degrees of freedom in every of the four element nodes and the second element has five additional internal degrees of freedom to get polynomial completeness of the cubic form and which can be statically condensed within the element. Both elements are able to pass the constant-bending patch test exactly as well as the non-zero constant-shear patch test on the oriented regular mesh geometry in the case of cylindrical bending. In any mesh shape, the elements have the correct rank and only the three eigenvalues, corresponding to the solid body motions are zero. There are no additional spurious zero modes responsible for instability of the finite element models. In comparison with the problem-independent cubic linked interpolation implemented in Q9-U3, the nine-node plate element, significantly less degrees of freedom are employed in the model while retaining the interpolation conformity between adjacent elements. The presented elements are also compared to the existing problem-independent quadratic linked-interpolation element Q4-U2 and to the other known elements that also use the quadratic or the cubic linked interpolation, by testing them on several benchmark examples. Simple functional upgrading from the quadratic to the cubic linked interpolation, implemented in Q4-U3 element, showed no significant improvement compared to the quadratic linked form of the Q4-U2 element. Only when the additional bubble terms are incorporated in the displacement and rotation function fields, which complete the full cubic linked interpolation form, qualitative improvement is fulfilled in the Q4-U3R5 element. Nevertheless, the locking problem exists even for the both presented elements, like in all pure displacement elements when applied to very thin plates modelled by coarse meshes. But good and even slightly better performance can be noticed for the Q4-U3R5 element when compared with elements from the literature, if the model meshes are moderately dense and the plate thickness not extremely thin. In some cases, it is comparable to or even better than Q9-U3 element which has as many as 12 more external degrees of freedom. A significant improvement can be noticed in particular when modeling very skew plates and models with singularities in the stress fields as well as circular plates with distorted meshes.

Keywords: Mindlin plate theory, problem-independent linked interpolation, problem-dependent interpolation, quadrilateral displacement-based plate finite elements

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Authors: Benchiha Walid, Mahroug Samira

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Rhamnus alaternus L. is a shrub that belongs to the family of Rhamnaceae. It is a medicinal plant that is largely used in traditional medicine in Algeria. Five flavonoic extracts obtained of Rhamnus alaternus L. leaves. The flavonoids were evaluated by a method that uses aluminum chloride AlCl3 of each extract; the content is estimated at 19.33 (Hexanic. Extract), 18.42 (Chlroformic.extract), 16.75 (Acetate. Extract), 3.9 (Brute. Extract), and 3.02 (Aqueous. Extract) mg Equivalent quercetine/gram of extract (mg QE/ g extract). The antioxidant activity was realized by the antiradical test that was evaluated by using DPHH (2.2 diphenyl-1-1picrylhdrazile), the inhibitory concentration at 50% (CI50) were estimated at 74.78 (Vitamin.C), 143.78 (Catechine), 101.78 (Gallic acid), 205.41 (Tannic acid), 210 (Caffeic acid) µg/ml; 74.16 (Br.extr), 9.98 (Aq.extr), 54.08 (Hèx.extr), 8.64 (Ac.extr), 30.49 (Ch.extr) mg/ml.

Keywords: Rhamnus alaternus L., flavonoids, antioxydant activity, Tessala

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Authors: Razieh Khalafi

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Myocardial infarction (MI) or acute myocardial infarction (AMI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow stops to part of the heart causing damage to the heart muscle. An ECG can often show evidence of a previous heart attack or one that's in progress. The patterns on the ECG may indicate which part of your heart has been damaged, as well as the extent of the damage. In chaos theory, the correlation dimension is a measure of the dimensionality of the space occupied by a set of random points, often referred to as a type of fractal dimension. In this research by considering ECG signal as a random walk we work on forecasting the oncoming heart attack by analyzing the ECG signals using the correlation dimension. In order to test the model a set of ECG signals for patients before and after heart attack was used and the strength of model for forecasting the behavior of these signals were checked. Results shows this methodology can forecast the ECG and accordingly heart attack with high accuracy.

Keywords: heart attack, ECG, random walk, correlation dimension, forecasting

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Authors: Mohammad R. Bhuyan, Mohammad J. Khattak

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Deterioration of flexible pavements due to crack reflection from its soil-cement base layer is a major concern around the globe. The service life of flexible pavement diminishes significantly because of the reflective cracks. Highway agencies are struggling for decades to prevent or mitigate these cracks in order to increase pavement service lives. The root cause of reflective cracks is the shrinkage crack which occurs in the soil-cement bases during the cement hydration process. The primary factor that causes the shrinkage is the cement content of the soil-cement mixture. With the increase of cement content, the soil-cement base gains strength and durability, which is necessary to withstand the traffic loads. But at the same time, higher cement content creates more shrinkage resulting in more reflective cracks in pavements. Historically, various states of USA have used the soil-cement bases for constructing flexile pavements. State of Louisiana (USA) had been using 8 to 10 percent of cement content to manufacture the soil-cement bases. Such traditional soil-cement bases yield 2.0 MPa (300 psi) 7-day compressive strength and are termed as cement stabilized design (CSD). As these CSD bases generate significant reflective cracks, another design of soil-cement base has been utilized by adding 4 to 6 percent of cement content called cement treated design (CTD), which yields 1.0 MPa (150 psi) 7-day compressive strength. The reduction of cement content in the CTD base is expected to minimize shrinkage cracks thus increasing pavement service lives. Hence, this research study evaluates the long-term field performance of CTD bases with respect to CSD bases used in flexible pavements. Pavement Management System of the state of Louisiana was utilized to select flexible pavement projects with CSD and CTD bases that had good historical record and time-series distress performance data. It should be noted that the state collects roughness and distress data for 1/10th mile section every 2-year period. In total, 120 CSD and CTD projects were analyzed in this research, where more than 145 miles (CTD) and 175 miles (CSD) of roadways data were accepted for performance evaluation and benefit-cost analyses. Here, the service life extension and area based on distress performance were considered as benefits. It was found that CTD bases increased 1 to 5 years of pavement service lives based on transverse cracking as compared to CSD bases. On the other hand, the service lives based on longitudinal and alligator cracking, rutting and roughness index remain the same. Hence, CTD bases provide some service life extension (2.6 years, on average) to the controlling distress; transverse cracking, but it was inexpensive due to its lesser cement content. Consequently, CTD bases become 20% more cost-effective than the traditional CSD bases, when both bases were compared by net benefit-cost ratio obtained from all distress types.

Keywords: cement treated base, cement stabilized base, reflective cracking , service life, flexible pavement

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Authors: M. Hadji, A. Haddad, Y. Hadji

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The effects of boronizing treatment on the friction coefficient and wear behavior of 0.35 Vf TiC- Ti3 SiC2 composite were investigated. In order to modify the surface properties of Ti3SiC2, boronizing treatment was carried out through powder pack cementation in the 1150-1350 °C temperature range. After boronizing treatment, one mixture layer, composed of TiB2 and SiC, forms on the surface of Ti3SiC2. The growth of the coating is processed by inward diffusion of Boron and obeys a linear rule. The Boronizing treatment increases the hardness of Ti3SiC2 from 6 GPa to 13 GPa. In the pin-on-disc test, i twas found that the material undergoes a steady-state coefficient of friction of around 0.8 and 0.45 in case of Ti3SiC2/Al2O3 tribocouple under 7 N load for the non treated and the boronized samples, respectively. The wear resistance of Ti3SiC2 under Al2O3 ball sliding has been significantly improved, which indicated that the boronizing treatment is a promising surface modification way of Ti3SiC2.

Keywords: MAX phase, boronizing, hardness, wear

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Authors: Majid Omidikhankahdani, Maryam Omidikhankahdani

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Chabahar city located southeast of Iran and is one of strategic regional port in Oman sea aim of this study was measuring Chabahar city resident perceptions about tourism positive and negative effect. 322 participants selected via random sampling and fill questionnaire about their attitude toward tourism economic, social cultural and environment positive and negative impact. the result showed perspective of resident tourism have more positive effect than negative effect, also pair sample t test showed significant difference between positive and negative effect of tourism in favor positive effect.

Keywords: tourism economic effect, tourism environment, residents attitude, tourism social-cultural

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Authors: N. Ravikumar, S. Krishnan, B. Yokeshkumar

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In present days, the power quality issues are increases due to non-linear loads like fridge, AC, washing machines, induction motor, etc. This power quality issues will affects the output voltages, output current, and output power of the total performance of the generator. This paper explains how to test the generator using the Fluke 435 II series power quality analyser. This Fluke 435 II series power quality analyser is used to measure the voltage, current, power, energy, total harmonic distortion (THD), current harmonics, voltage harmonics, power factor, and frequency. The Fluke 435 II series power quality analyser have several advantages. They are i) it will records output in analog and digital format. ii) the fluke analyzer will records at every 0.25 sec. iii) it will also measure all the electrical parameter at a time.

Keywords: THD, harmonics, power quality, TNEB, Fluke 435

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Authors: Zelikha Labbani

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Durum wheat represents an attractive species to study androgenesis via isolated microspore culture in order to increase the efficiency of androgenic yield in recalcitrant species such as in induction embryogenesis. We describe here an efficient method for inducing embryos from isolated microspores of durum wheat. It is shown that this method, associated with cold alone or cold plus mannitol pretreatment, or mannitol alone of the spikes kept within their sheath leaves during different times, has significant positive effects on embryo production. The aim of this study was, therefore, to test the effect of mannitol 0,3M and cold pretreatment on the quality and quantity of embryos produced from microspore culture from wheat cultivars.

Keywords: in vitro embryogenesis, isolated microspores culture, durum wheat, pretreatments, mannitol 0.3m, cold pretreatment

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Authors: S. K. Gupta, Richa Bansal

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In a deregulated power system structure, power producers, and customers share a common transmission network for wheeling power from the point of generation to the point of consumption. All parties in this open access environment may try to purchase the energy from the cheaper source for greater profit margins, which may lead to overloading and congestion of certain corridors of the transmission network. This may result in violation of line flow, voltage and stability limits and thereby undermine the system security. Utilities therefore need to determine adequately their Available Transfer Capability (ATC) to ensure that system reliability is maintained while serving a wide range of bilateral and multilateral transactions. This paper presents power transfer distribution factor based on AC load flow for the determination and enhancement of ATC. The study has been carried out for IEEE 24 bus Reliability Test System.

Keywords: available transfer capability, FACTS devices, power transfer distribution factors, electric

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Authors: Alireza Barari, Ahmad Abdi

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Regular body trainings cause adaption in various system in body. One of the important effect of body training is its effect on immune system. It seems that cytokines usually release after long period exercises or some exercises which cause skeletal muscular damages. If some of the cytokines which cause responses such as inflammation of cells in skeletal muscles, with manipulating of training program, it can be avoided or limited from those exercises which induct cytokines release. Ginger plant is a kind of medicinal plants which is known as a anti inflammation plant. This plant is as most precedence medicinal plants in medicine science especially in inflammation cure. The aim of the present study was the effect of selected resistance training and consumption of ginger extract on IL-1α and TNFα untrained young women. The population includes young women interested in participating in the study with the average of 30±2 years old from Abbas Abad city among which 32 participants were chosen randomly and divided into 4 four groups, resistance training (R), resistance training and ginger consumption(RG), Ginger consumption(G)and Control group(C). The training groups performed circuit resistance training at the intensity of 65-75% one repeat maximum, 3 days a week for 6 weeks. Besides resistance training, subjects were given either ginseng (5 mg/kg per day) or placebo. Prior to and 48 hours after interventions body composition was measured and blood samples were taken in order to assess serum levels of IL-1α and TNFα. Plasma levels of cytokines were measured with commercially available ELISA Kits.IL-1α kit and TNFα kit were used in this research. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the independent variable and the comparison between groups, t-test and ANOVA were used. To determine differences between the groups, the Scheffe test was used that showed significant changes in any of the variables. we observed that circuit resistance training in R and RG groups can significant decreased in weight and body mass index in untrained females (p<0.05). The results showed a significant decreased in the mean level of IL-1α levels before and after the training period in G group (p=0.046) and RG group (p=0.022). Comparison between groups also showed there was significant difference between groups R-RG and RG-C. Intergroup comparison results showed that the mean levels of TNFα before and after the training in group G (p=0.044) and RG (p=0.037), significantly decreased. Comparison between groups also showed there was significant difference between groups R–RG , R-G ,RG-C and G-C. The research shows that circuit resistance training with reducing overload method results in systemic inflammation had significant effect on IL-1α levels and TNFα. Of course, Ginger can counteract the negative effects of resistance training exercise on immune function and stability of the mast cell membrane. Considerable evidence supported the anti-inflammatory properties of ginger for several constituents, especially gingerols, shogaols, paradols, and zingerones, through decreased cytokine gene TNF α and IL-1Α expression and inhibition of cyclooxygenase 1 and 2. These established biological actions suggest that ingested ginger could block the increase in IL-1α.

Keywords: resistance training, ginger, IL-1α , TNFα

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