Search results for: physical risk factors
18896 The Role of Tax Management Components in Creating Value or Increasing Risk of Tehran Stock Exchange Firms
Authors: Fereshteh Darash
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Reflective tax management corresponds to the Agency Theory since it determines the motivation of managers for tax management actions and short-term and long-term consequences. Therefore, selection of tax strategy contributes to the tax and financial position of the firm in the future. The aim of the present research is to evaluate the effect of tax management components on risk-taking of firms listed in Tehran stock exchange by using regression analysis method. Results show that tax effective rate, tax risk and tax planning have no significant effect on the firm's future risk. Results suggest that stakeholders assess the effective tax rate and delay in tax payment in line with their benefits. They tend to accept the higher risk cost for reduction of tax payments and benefits of higher liquidity in current period. Hence, effective tax rate and tax risk have no significant effect on future risk of the firm. Moreover, tax planning yields no information regarding the predictability of the future profits and as a result, it has no significant effect on the future risk of the firm since specific goals of financial reporting are in priority for the stakeholders and regardless of the firm’s data analysis, they take investment decisions and they less intend to purchase the stocks in a rational manner.Keywords: tax management, tax effective rate, tax risk, tax planning, firm risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 13418895 Identifying the Determinants of the Shariah Non-Compliance Risk via Principal Axis Factoring
Authors: Muhammad Arzim Naim, Saiful Azhar Rosly, Mohamad Sahari Nordin
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The objective of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the rise of Shariah non-compliance risk that can bring Islamic banks to succumb to monetary loss. Prior literatures have never analyzed such risk in details despite lots of it arguing on the validity of some Shariah compliance products. The Shariah non-compliance risk in this context is looking to the potentially failure of the facility to stand from the court test say that if the banks bring it to the court for compensation from the defaulted clients. The risk may also arise if the customers refuse to make the financing payments on the grounds of the validity of the contracts, for example, when relinquishing critical requirement of Islamic contract such as ownership, the risk that may lead the banks to suffer loss when the customer invalidate the contract through the court. The impact of Shariah non-compliance risk to Islamic banks is similar to that of legal risks faced by the conventional banks. Both resulted into monetary losses to the banks respectively. In conventional banking environment, losses can be in the forms of summons paid to the customers if they won the case. In banking environment, this normally can be in very huge amount. However, it is right to mention that for Islamic banks, the subsequent impact to them can be rigorously big because it will affect their reputation. If the customers do not perceive them to be Shariah compliant, they will take their money and bank it in other places. This paper provides new insights of risks faced by credit intensive Islamic banks by providing a new extension of knowledge with regards to the Shariah non-compliance risk by identifying its individual components that directly affecting the risk together with empirical evidences. Not limited to the Islamic banking fraternities, the regulators and policy makers should be able to use findings in this paper to evaluate the components of the Shariah non-compliance risk and make the necessary actions. The paper is written based on Malaysia’s Islamic banking practices which may not directly related to other jurisdictions. Even though the focuses of this study is directly towards to the Bay Bithaman Ajil or popularly known as BBA (i.e. sale with deferred payments) financing modality, the result from this study may be applicable to other Islamic financing vehicles.Keywords: Islamic banking, Islamic finance, Shariah Non-compliance risk, Bay Bithaman Ajil (BBA), principal axis factoring
Procedia PDF Downloads 29818894 Young People, Well-Being and Risk-Taking: Doing Gender in Relation to Health and Heavy Drinking
Authors: Jukka Torronen
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Introduction: Alcohol consumption and health are areas where gender binaries have persisted. By intoxication, men have displayed their masculinity as strong, while matters of health have formed a feminine undertaking. However, in recent years young people’s alcohol consumption has declined and been challenged by competing activities, including the rising health trend. This makes the comparison of young people’s masculinities and femininities in health and heavy drinking an important case to study. Methods: The data consists of semi-structured interviews about alcohol, health, and leisure activities among young people aged between 15 and 19 (N=56). By drawing on Butler’s work on “gender as performative” and Connell’s understanding of gendered identities as “configurations of practices,” the paper analyzes how the interviewees are doing masculinities and femininities in relation to health and heavy drinking, and how their gender performances are dichotomous, naturalized and contested. Results: The interviewees approach health from two perspectives, which are called “social health” and “physical health” approaches. They are both gendered. Especially in the “social health” approach, in which intoxication and risk-taking are used to increase well-being, the interviewees perform stereotypical gender binaries. The interviewees’ gendered performances in the “physical health” approach show more variability and are more reflective and critical. In contrast to intoxication, in relation to which the interviewees perform biologically driven gender binaries, they perform culturally driven genders in relation to health. Conclusions: Health seems to provide for the interviewees a field in which they feel more liberated to perform flexible and alternative genders.Keywords: young people, decline in drinking, qualitative interviews, gender, health, risk-taking
Procedia PDF Downloads 13418893 The Magnitude and Associated Factors of Coagulation Abnormalities Among Liver Disease Patients at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital Northwest, Ethiopia
Authors: Melkamu A., Woldu B., Sitotaw C., Seyoum M., Aynalem M.
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Background: Liver disease is any condition that affects the liver cells and their function. It is directly linked to coagulation disorders since most coagulation factors are produced by the liver. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude and associated factors of coagulation abnormalities among liver disease patients. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October 2022 among 307 consecutively selected study participants at the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire and data extraction sheet, respectively. About 2.7 mL of venous blood was collected and analyzed by the Genrui CA51 coagulation analyzer. Data was entered into Epi-data and exported to STATA version 14 software for analysis. The finding was described in terms of frequencies and proportions. Factors associated with coagulation abnormalities were analyzed by bivariable and multivariable logistic regression. Result: In this study, a total of 307 study participants were included. Of them, the magnitude of prolonged Prothrombin Time (PT) and Activated Partial Thromboplastin Time (APTT) were 68.08% and 63.51%, respectively. The presence of anemia (AOR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.26, 7.03), a lack of a vegetable feeding habit (AOR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.42, 6.24), no history of blood transfusion (AOR = 3.72, 95% CI: 1.78, 7.78), and lack of physical exercise (AOR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.60, 6.52) were significantly associated with prolonged PT. While the presence of anaemia (AOR = 3.02; 95% CI: 1.34, 6.76), lack of vegetable feeding habit (AOR = 2.64; 95% CI: 1.34, 5.20), no history of blood transfusion (AOR = 2.28; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.79), and a lack of physical exercise (AOR = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.16, 4.78) were significantly associated with abnormal APTT. Conclusion: Patients with liver disease had substantial coagulation problems. Being anemic, having a transfusion history, lack of physical activity, and lack of vegetables showed significant association with coagulopathy. Therefore, early detection and management of coagulation abnormalities in liver disease patients are critical.Keywords: coagulation, liver disease, PT, Aptt
Procedia PDF Downloads 5818892 Combined Safety and Cybersecurity Risk Assessment for Intelligent Distributed Grids
Authors: Anders Thorsén, Behrooz Sangchoolie, Peter Folkesson, Ted Strandberg
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As more parts of the power grid become connected to the internet, the risk of cyberattacks increases. To identify the cybersecurity threats and subsequently reduce vulnerabilities, the common practice is to carry out a cybersecurity risk assessment. For safety classified systems and products, there is also a need for safety risk assessments in addition to the cybersecurity risk assessment in order to identify and reduce safety risks. These two risk assessments are usually done separately, but since cybersecurity and functional safety are often related, a more comprehensive method covering both aspects is needed. Some work addressing this has been done for specific domains like the automotive domain, but more general methods suitable for, e.g., intelligent distributed grids, are still missing. One such method from the automotive domain is the Security-Aware Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (SAHARA) method that combines safety and cybersecurity risk assessments. This paper presents an approach where the SAHARA method has been modified in order to be more suitable for larger distributed systems. The adapted SAHARA method has a more general risk assessment approach than the original SAHARA. The proposed method has been successfully applied on two use cases of an intelligent distributed grid.Keywords: intelligent distribution grids, threat analysis, risk assessment, safety, cybersecurity
Procedia PDF Downloads 15118891 Vitamin D Status in Tunisian Obese Patients
Authors: O. Berriche, R. Ben Othmen, H. Sfar, H. Abdesslam, S. Bou Meftah, S. Bhouri, F. Mahjoub, C. Amrouche, H. Jamoussi
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Introduction: Although current evidence emphasizes a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and an inverse association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) concentration and obesity, no studies have been conducted in Tunisian obese. The objectives of our study were to estimate the vitamin D deficiency in obese, identify risk factors for vitamin D deficiency, demonstrating a possible association between vitamin D levels and metabolic parameters. Methods: This was a descriptive study of 100 obese 18-65 year-old. Anthropometric measurements were determined. Fasting blood samples were assessed for the following essays : serum calcium, 25 OH vitamin D, inorganic phosphorus, fasting glucose, HDL, LDL cholesterol and triglyceride. Insulin resistance was evaluated by fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and HOMA-ß. Consumption of foods riche in vitamin D, sunscreen use, wearing protective clothes and exposed surface were assessed through applied questionnaires. Results: The deficit of vitamin D (< 30 ng/ml) among obese was 98,8%. Half of them had a rate < 10ng/ml. Environmental factors involved in vitamin D deficiency are : the veil (p = 0,001), wearing protective clothes (p = 0,04) and the exposed surface (p = 0,011) and dietary factors are represented by the daily caloric intake (p = 0,0001). The percent of fat mass was negatively related to vitamin D levels (p = 0,01) but not with BMI (p = 0,11) or waist circumference (p = 0,88). Similarly, lipid and glucose profile had no link with vitamin D. We found no relationship between Insulin resistance and vitamin D levels. Conclusion: At the end of our study, we have identified a very important vitamin D deficiency among obese. Dosage and systematic supplementation should be applied and for that physician awareness is needed.Keywords: insulinresistance, risk factors, obesity, vitamin D
Procedia PDF Downloads 65218890 Stock Characteristics and Herding Formation: Evidence from the United States Equity Market
Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Fang-Jyun Su
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This paper explores whether stock characteristics influence the herding formation among investors in the US equity market. To extend the research scope of the existing literature, this paper further examines the role that stock risk characteristics play in the US equity market, and the way they influence investors’ decision-making. First, empirical results show that whether general stocks or high-risk stocks, there are no herding behaviors among the investors in the US equity market during the whole research period or during four great events. Moreover, stock characteristics have great influence on investors’ trading decisions. Finally, there is a bidirectional lead-lag relationship of the herding formation between high-risk stocks and low-risk stocks, but the influence of high-risk stocks on the low-risk stocks is stronger than that of low-risk stocks on the high-risk stocks.Keywords: stock characteristics, herding formation, investment decision, US equity market, lead-lag relationship
Procedia PDF Downloads 27318889 Physical Inactivity and Junk Food Consumption Consequent Obesity among University Girls: A Cross Sectional Study Unveils the Mayhem
Authors: Shahid Mahmood, Ghulam Mueen-Ud-Din, Farah Naz Akbar, Yousaf Quddoos, Syeda Mahvish Zahra, Wajiha Saeed, Tayyaba Sami Ullah
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Obesity is an epidemic across the globe that affects all the segments of the population. Physical inactivity, passionate consumption of junk food, inadequate water intake and an unhealthy lifestyle are evident among university girls that are ruining their health gravely especially fat accumulation. The study was carried out to investigate the potential etiological factors of obesity development in university girls. The cross sectional study was carried out after approval of the Departmental Review Committee for Ethics (DRCE) as the par Declaration of Helsinki at Institute of Food Science and Nutrition (IFSN), University of Sargodha, Sargodha-Pakistan and Department of Food Science and Home Economics, G. C. Women University, Faisalabad-Pakistan. 400 girls were selected randomly from different departments of both universities. Nutritional status of the volunteers was assessed through approved protocols for demographics, anthropometrics, body composition, energetics, vital signs, clinical signs and symptoms, medical/family history, and dietary intake assessment (FFQ), water intake and physical activity level. The obesity was determined on body fat (%). Alarming and unheeded etiological factors for the development of obesity in girls were explored by the study. About 93 % girls had a sedentary level of physical activity, zealous consumption of junk food (5.31±1.23 servings), drank little water (1.09±0.26 L/day) that consequent high heaps of fat (35.06±3.02 %), measly body water (52.38±3.4 %), poor bone mass (05.14±0.31 Kg), and high BMI (26.68±1.14 Kg/m²) in 34% girls. The malnutrition also depicted by poor vital signs i.e. low body temperature (97.11±0.93 °F), slightly higher blood pressure (124.19±4.08 / 85.25±2.97 mmHg), rapid pulse rate (99.2 ± 6.85 beats/min), reduced blood O₂ saturation (96.53±0.96 %), scanty peak expiratory flow rate (297 ± 15.7 L /min). The outcomes of the research articulated that physical inactivity; extreme intakes of junk food, insufficient water consumption are etiological factors for obesity development among girls which are usually overlooked in Pakistan.Keywords: informed consent, junk food, obesity, physical inactivity
Procedia PDF Downloads 18818888 Investigating the Effective Physical Factors in the Development of Coastal Ecotourism in Southern Islands of Iran: A Case Study of Hendurabi Island, Iran
Authors: Zahra Khodaee
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Background and Objective: The attractive potential for tourism in the southern islands of Iran, Kish, and Qeshm and recently Hendurabi, are becoming more and more popular and object of increased attention from the investors. The Iranian coral reef islands, with the exception of Kish and Qeshm, have not undergone sufficient development. The southern islands of Iran have faced two problems with climate change and the desire for the presence of tourists. The lack of proper planning, inefficient management, and lack of adequate knowledge of ecosystems of offshore regions have severely damaged the world natural heritage. This study was conducted to consider the correlation of tourism, development, and ecosystem because there is a need for further addressing the ecotourism in coral islands. Method: Through qualitative research, this paper was used of library studies and field studies and surveying to study the physical (objective-subjective) physical factors of ecotourism development in Honduran Island. Using SPSS software and descriptive-analytical method was shown the results. The survey was conducted with the participation of 150 tourists on Kish islands, who were chosen at random and who expressed their desire to travel to Hendurabi Island. Information was gathered using SPSS software and unique statistical T-test. The questionnaire was put together using AMOS software to ensure that the questions asked were sufficiently relevant. Findings: The results of this study presented that physical factors affecting the development of ecotourism in two categories are objective and subjective factors because IFI factor = 0.911 and CFI Factor = 0.907 into the target community. Discussion and conclusion: The results were satisfactory in that they showed that eco-tourists attached importance to see views, quiet, secluded areas, tranquility security, quality of the area being visited, easy access to services these were the top criteria for those visiting the area while they adhere to environmental compliance. Developing Management of these regions should maintain appropriate utilization along with sustainable and ecological responsibility.Keywords: ecotourism, coral reef island, development management, Hendurabi Island
Procedia PDF Downloads 14018887 Relationship between Job Satisfaction, Job Stressors and Long Term Physical Morbidities among University Employees in Pakistan
Authors: Shahzad A. Mughal, Ameer A. P. Ghaloo, Faisal Laghari, Mohsin A. Mirza
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Job satisfaction and level of job stressors among employees of a university are considered as essential factors responsible for institutional success. Job satisfaction is usually believed as a single baseline variable for the evaluation of a university human resource area. The objectives of this study were to assess the level of job satisfaction and influence of job stressors among university teachers and their association with long term physical health of the employees in government sector universities in Pakistan. A cross-sectional study was conducted on university employees including faculty members and administrative staff of three government sector universities in Sindh province of Pakistan who have completed at least ten years of their job. The study period was six months. All the employees were randomly selected. The job satisfaction scale Questionnaire with yes and no options, together with questions regarding demographic factors, job stress or other working factors and physical health issues were administered in questionnaires. These questionnaires were handed out to 100 faculty members of both genders with permanent job and 50 non faculty staff of grade 17 and above with permanent employment status. Students’ T test and one way ANOVA was applied to categorical variables and Pearson’s correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the correlations between study variables. 121 successful responses were obtained (effective respondent rate 80.6%). The average score of overall job satisfaction was 65.6%. Statistical analysis revealed that the job satisfaction and work related stressors had negative impact on overall health status of the employees with resultant less efficacy and mental stress. The positive relation was perceived by employees for organizational support and high income with job satisfaction. Demographic features such as age and female gender were also linked to the level of job satisfaction and health related issues. The total variation among all responses regarding correlation between job satisfaction job stressors and health related issues was 55%. A study was conducted on University employees of government sector Universities in Pakistan, regarding association of job satisfaction and job stressors with long term physical health of the employees. Study revealed a moderate level of job satisfaction among the employees of all universities included in this study. Attitude and personal relations with heads of the departments and institution along with salary packages were considered as biggest job stressors related correlated directly with physical health. Demographic features and gender were associated factors for job satisfaction. Organizational support was the strongest factor for job satisfaction and results pointed out that by improving support level from University may improve the quality of job satisfaction and overall health of employees.Keywords: job satisfaction, organizational support, physical health, university employees
Procedia PDF Downloads 25218886 Perception of Nurses and Caregivers on Fall Preventive Management for Hospitalized Children Based on Ecological Model
Authors: Mirim Kim, Won-Oak Oh
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Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify hospitalized children's fall risk factors, fall prevention status and fall prevention strategies recognized by nurses and caregivers of hospitalized children and present an ecological model for fall preventive management in hospitalized children. Method: The participants of this study were 14 nurses working in medical institutions and having more than one year of child care experience and 14 adult caregivers of children under 6 years of age receiving inpatient treatment at a medical institution. One to one interview was attempted to identify their perception of fall preventive management. Transcribed data were analyzed through latent content analysis method. Results: Fall risk factors in hospitalized children were 'unpredictable behavior', 'instability', 'lack of awareness about danger', 'lack of awareness about falls', 'lack of child control ability', 'lack of awareness about the importance of fall prevention', 'lack of sensitivity to children', 'untidy environment around children', 'lack of personalized facilities for children', 'unsafe facility', 'lack of partnership between healthcare provider and caregiver', 'lack of human resources', 'inadequate fall prevention policy', 'lack of promotion about fall prevention', 'a performanceism oriented culture'. Fall preventive management status of hospitalized children were 'absence of fall prevention capability', 'efforts not to fall', 'blocking fall risk situation', 'limit the scope of children's activity when there is no caregiver', 'encourage caregivers' fall prevention activities', 'creating a safe environment surrounding hospitalized children', 'special management for fall high risk children', 'mutual cooperation between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'implementation of fall prevention policy', 'providing guide signs about fall risk'. Fall preventive management strategies of hospitalized children were 'restrain dangerous behavior', 'inspiring awareness about fall', 'providing fall preventive education considering the child's eye level', 'efforts to become an active subject of fall prevention activities', 'providing customed fall prevention education', 'open communication between healthcare providers and caregivers', 'infrastructure and personnel management to create safe hospital environment', 'expansion fall prevention campaign', 'development and application of a valid fall assessment instrument', 'conversion of awareness about safety'. Conclusion: In this study, the ecological model of fall preventive management for hospitalized children reflects various factors that directly or indirectly affect the fall prevention of hospitalized children. Therefore, these results can be considered as useful baseline data for developing systematic fall prevention programs and hospital policies to prevent fall accident in hospitalized children. Funding: This study was funded by the National Research Foundation of South Korea (grant number NRF-2016R1A2B1015455).Keywords: fall down, safety culture, hospitalized children, risk factors
Procedia PDF Downloads 16318885 Health Promoting Behaviors among Thai Older Adults: Trend and Association with Health Status
Authors: Alongkorn Pekalee, Rossarin Gray
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Various determinants associated with older health include socio-demographic factors and health-promoting behaviors but lack in scholars recommended what factors associated with health status in specific sub-groups of older adults. The current study aims to explore the health-promoting behaviors and to examine and compare the associations of these factors with self-rated health status among three older age cohorts in Thai traditional context. Methods: This study is based on the Survey of Older Persons in Thailand (SOPT), in 2017, conducted by the National Statistical Office (NSO) of Thailand. Participants were classified into three groups by using the Thai contextual recommendation: youngest-old cohort (60-69), old-old cohort (70-79) and oldest old cohort (80 or older). Health promoting behaviors are the behaviors which associated with the health status of older adults include alcohol consumption, smoking, diet, and physical activity. Health status was defined as a subjective measurement by using self-rated health, a simple measure of general health. The socio-demographic factors, health-promoting behaviors, and health status were explained and summarized by descriptive statistics. The binary logistic regression was performed to analyze the data and evaluate the associations between independent and dependent variables. Results: Increase of age contributes to a higher proportion of health-promoting behaviors. All variables were associated with self-reported health status as good health among three older age cohorts statistically significant (p-value = 0.000). However, the influence of income sufficiency on health status is more notable, especially in older adults who aged 60-69 and 70-79. The influence of dietary and physical activity on health status became greater as age increased. Conclusion: the results suggest that income sufficiency should be noted in a plan to promote healthy aging, and co-residence should be more concerned especially in the oldest old cohort. Moreover, the interventions or policies to promote older health behaviors like diet and physical activity should be emphasized in the oldest old cohort more than others.Keywords: health-promoting behaviors, older adults, self- rated health, Thailand
Procedia PDF Downloads 13818884 Comparison of the Anthropometric Obesity Indices in Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli
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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices
Procedia PDF Downloads 10118883 Development of Risk-Based Ambient Air Quality Standards in the Russian Federation on the Basis of Risk Assessment Procedures Harmonized with International Approaches
Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova
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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese
Procedia PDF Downloads 38918882 Modelling the Dynamics of Corporate Bonds Spreads with Asymmetric GARCH Models
Authors: Sélima Baccar, Ephraim Clark
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This paper can be considered as a new perspective to analyse credit spreads. A comprehensive empirical analysis of conditional variance of credit spreads indices is performed using various GARCH models. Based on a comparison between traditional and asymmetric GARCH models with alternative functional forms of the conditional density, we intend to identify what macroeconomic and financial factors have driven daily changes in the US Dollar credit spreads in the period from January 2011 through January 2013. The results provide a strong interdependence between credit spreads and the explanatory factors related to the conditions of interest rates, the state of the stock market, the bond market liquidity and the exchange risk. The empirical findings support the use of asymmetric GARCH models. The AGARCH and GJR models outperform the traditional GARCH in credit spreads modelling. We show, also, that the leptokurtic Student-t assumption is better than the Gaussian distribution and improves the quality of the estimates, whatever the rating or maturity.Keywords: corporate bonds, default risk, credit spreads, asymmetric garch models, student-t distribution
Procedia PDF Downloads 47318881 Household Socioeconomic Factors Associated with Teenage Pregnancies in Kigali City, Rwanda
Authors: Dieudonne Uwizeye, Reuben Muhayiteto
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Teenage pregnancy is a challenging problem for sustainable development due to restrictions it poses to socioeconomic opportunities for young mothers, their children and families. Being unable to take appropriate economic and social responsibilities, teen mothers get trapped into poverty and become economic burden to their family and country. Besides, teenage pregnancy is also a health problem because children born to very young mothers are vulnerable with greater risk of illnesses and deaths, and teenage mothers are more likely to be exposed to greater risk of maternal mortality and to other health and psychological problems. In Kigali city, in Rwanda, teenage pregnancy rate is currently high and its increase in recent years is worrisome. However, only individual factors influencing the teenage pregnancy tend to be the basis of interventions. It is important to understand the important socioeconomic factors at the household level that are associated with teenage pregnancy to help government, parents, and other stakeholders to appropriately address the problem with sustainable measures. This study analyzed secondary data from the Fifth Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey (RDHS-V 2014-2015) conducted by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR). The aim was to examine household socio-economic factors that are associated with incidence of teenage pregnancies in Kigali city. In addition to descriptive analysis, Pearson’s Chi Square and Binary Logistic Regression were used in the analysis. Findings indicate that marital status and age of household head, number of members in a household, number of rooms used for sleeping, educational level of the household head and household's wealth are significantly associated with teenage pregnancy in Rwanda ( p< 0.05). It was found that teenagers living with parents, those having parents with higher education and those from richer families are less likely to become pregnant. Age of household head was pinpointed as factor to teenage pregnancy, with teenage-headed households being more vulnerable. The findings also revealed that household composition correlates with the probability of teenage pregnancy (p < 0.05) with teenagers from households with less number of members being more vulnerable. Regarding the size of the house, the study suggested that the more rooms available in households, the less incidences of teenage pregnancy are likely to be observed (p < 0.05). However, teenage pregnancy was not significantly associated with physical violence among parents (p = 0.65) and sex of household heads (p = 0.52), except in teen-headed households of which female are predominantly heads. The study concludes that teenage pregnancy remains a serious social, economic and health problem in Rwanda. The study informs government officials, parents and other stakeholders to take interventions and preventive measures through community sex education, policies and strategies to foster effective parental guidance, care and control of young girls through meeting their necessary social and financial needs within households.Keywords: household socio-economic factors, Rwanda, Rwanda demographic and health survey, teenage pregnancy
Procedia PDF Downloads 17818880 Risk Assessment Tools Applied to Deep Vein Thrombosis Patients Treated with Warfarin
Authors: Kylie Mueller, Nijole Bernaitis, Shailendra Anoopkumar-Dukie
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Background: Vitamin K antagonists particularly warfarin is the most frequently used oral medication for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) treatment and prophylaxis. Time in therapeutic range (TITR) of the international normalised ratio (INR) is widely accepted as a measure to assess the quality of warfarin therapy. Multiple factors can affect warfarin control and the subsequent adverse outcomes including thromboembolic and bleeding events. Predictor models have been developed to assess potential contributing factors and measure the individual risk of these adverse events. These predictive models have been validated in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, however, there is a lack of literature on whether these can be successfully applied to other warfarin users including DVT patients. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the ability of these risk models (HAS BLED and CHADS2) to predict haemorrhagic and ischaemic incidences in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Methods: A retrospective analysis of DVT patients receiving warfarin management by a private pathology clinic was conducted. Data was collected from November 2007 to September 2014 and included demographics, medical and drug history, INR targets and test results. Patients receiving continuous warfarin therapy with an INR reference range between 2.0 and 3.0 were included in the study with mean TITR calculated using the Rosendaal method. Bleeding and thromboembolic events were recorded and reported as incidences per patient. The haemorrhagic risk model HAS BLED and ischaemic risk model CHADS2 were applied to the data. Patients were then stratified into either the low, moderate, or high-risk categories. The analysis was conducted to determine if a correlation existed between risk assessment tool and patient outcomes. Data was analysed using GraphPad Instat Version 3 with a p value of <0.05 considered to be statistically significant. Patient characteristics were reported as mean and standard deviation for continuous data and categorical data reported as number and percentage. Results: Of the 533 patients included in the study, there were 268 (50.2%) female and 265 (49.8%) male patients with a mean age of 62.5 years (±16.4). The overall mean TITR was 78.3% (±12.7) with an overall haemorrhagic incidence of 0.41 events per patient. For the HAS BLED model, there was a haemorrhagic incidence of 0.08, 0.53, and 0.54 per patient in the low, moderate and high-risk categories respectively showing a statistically significant increase in incidence with increasing risk category. The CHADS2 model showed an increase in ischaemic events according to risk category with no ischaemic events in the low category, and an ischaemic incidence of 0.03 in the moderate category and 0.47 high-risk categories. Conclusion: An increasing haemorrhagic incidence correlated to an increase in the HAS BLED risk score in DVT patients treated with warfarin. Furthermore, a greater incidence of ischaemic events occurred in patients with an increase in CHADS2 category. In an Australian population of DVT patients, the HAS BLED and CHADS2 accurately predicts incidences of haemorrhage and ischaemic events respectively.Keywords: anticoagulant agent, deep vein thrombosis, risk assessment, warfarin
Procedia PDF Downloads 26218879 The Impact of Shariah Non-Compliance Risk on Islamic Financial Institutions
Authors: Ibtissam Mharzi Alaoui, Camélia Sehaqui
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The success of a bank depends upon its effective risk management. With the growing complexity and diversity of financial products and services, as well as the accelerating pace of globalization over the past decade, risk management is becoming increasingly difficult. thus, all measurement and monitoring functions must be much more vigorous, relevant and adequate. The Shariah non-compliance risk is specific aspect of Islamic finance which ipso facto, deserves particular attention. It affects the validity of all Islamic financial contracts and it turns out to be likely to result in considerable losses on the overall Islamic financial institutions (IFIs). The purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical literature on Shariah non-compliance risk in order to give a clearer understanding of its sources, causes and consequences. Our intention through this work is to bring added value to the Islamic finance industry all over the world. The findings provide a useful reference work for the Islamic banks in structuring (or restructuring) of their own system of shariah risk management and internal control.Keywords: Shariah non-compliance, risk management, financial products, Islamic finance.
Procedia PDF Downloads 8518878 The Investigation of Correlation between Body Composition and Physical Activity in University Students
Authors: Ferruh Taspinar, Gulce K. Seyyar, Gamze Kurt, Eda O. Okur, Emrah Afsar, Ismail Saracoglu, Betul Taspinar
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Alterations of physical activity can effect body composition (especially body fat ratio); however body mass index may not sufficient to indicate these minimal differences. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between body composition and physical activity in university students. In this study, 132 university students (mean age; 21.21±1.51) were included. Tanita BC-418 and International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) were used to evaluate participants. The correlation between the parameters was analysed via Spearman correlation analysis. Significance level in statistical analyses was accepted is 0.05. The results showed that there was no correlation between body mass index and physical activity (p>0.05). There was a positive correlation between body muscle ratio and physical activity, whereas a negative correlation between body fat ratio and physical activity (p<0.05). This study showed that body fat and muscle ratio affects the level of physical activity in healthy university students. Therefore, we thought that physical activity might reduce effects of the diseases caused by disturbed body composition. Further studies are required to support this idea.Keywords: body composition, body mass index, physical activity, university student
Procedia PDF Downloads 35318877 Stuttering Persistence in Children: Effectiveness of the Psicodizione Method in a Small Italian Cohort
Authors: Corinna Zeli, Silvia Calati, Marco Simeoni, Chiara Comastri
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Developmental stuttering affects about 10% of preschool children; although the high percentage of natural recovery, a quarter of them will become an adult who stutters. An effective early intervention should help those children with high persistence risk for the future. The Psicodizione method for early stuttering is an Italian behavior indirect treatment for preschool children who stutter in which method parents act as good guides for communication, modeling their own fluency. In this study, we give a preliminary measure to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of Psicodizione method on stuttering preschool children with a high persistence risk. Among all Italian children treated with the Psicodizione method between 2018 and 2019, we selected 8 kids with at least 3 high risk persistence factors from the Illinois Prediction Criteria proposed by Yairi and Seery. The factors chosen for the selection were: one parent who stutters (1pt mother; 1.5pt father), male gender, ≥ 4 years old at onset; ≥ 12 months from onset of symptoms before treatment. For this study, the families were contacted after an average period of time of 14,7 months (range 3 - 26 months). Parental reports were gathered with a standard online questionnaire in order to obtain data reflecting fluency from a wide range of the children’s life situations. The minimum worthwhile outcome was set at "mild evidence" in a 5 point Likert scale (1 mild evidence- 5 high severity evidence). A second group of 6 children, among those treated with the Piscodizione method, was selected as high potential for spontaneous remission (low persistence risk). The children in this group had to fulfill all the following criteria: female gender, symptoms for less than 12 months (before treatment), age of onset <4 years old, none of the parents with persistent stuttering. At the time of this follow-up, the children were aged 6–9 years, with a mean of 15 months post-treatment. Among the children in the high persistence risk group, 2 (25%) hadn’t had stutter anymore, and 3 (37,5%) had mild stutter based on parental reports. In the low persistency risk group, the children were aged 4–6 years, with a mean of 14 months post-treatment, and 5 (84%) hadn’t had stutter anymore (for the past 16 months on average).62,5% of children at high risk of persistence after Psicodizione treatment showed mild evidence of stutter at most. 75% of parents confirmed a better fluency than before the treatment. The low persistence risk group seemed to be representative of spontaneous recovery. This study’s design could help to better evaluate the success of the proposed interventions for stuttering preschool children and provides a preliminary measure of the effectiveness of the Psicodizione method on high persistence risk children.Keywords: early treatment, fluency, preschool children, stuttering
Procedia PDF Downloads 21418876 Relationship between Growth of Non-Performing Assets and Credit Risk Management Practices in Indian Banks
Authors: Sirus Sharifi, Arunima Haldar, S. V. D. Nageswara Rao
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The study attempts to analyze the impact of credit risk management practices of Indian scheduled commercial banks on their non-performing assets (NPAs). The data on credit risk practices was collected by administering a questionnaire to risk managers/executives at different banks. The data on NPAs (from 2012 to 2016) is sourced from Prowess, a database compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). The model was estimated using cross-sectional regression method. As expected, the findings suggest that there is a negative relationship between credit risk management and NPA growth in Indian banks. The study has implications for Indian banks given the high level of losses, and the implementation of Basel III norms by the central bank, i.e. Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Evidence on credit risk management in Indian banks, and their relationship with non-performing assets held by them.Keywords: credit risk, identification, Indian Banks, NPAs, ownership
Procedia PDF Downloads 40618875 Mobile Device Applications in Physical Education: Investigating New Pedagogical Possibilities
Authors: Danica Vidotto
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Digital technology is continuing to disrupt and challenge local conventions of teaching and education. As mobile devices continue to make their way into contemporary classrooms, educators need new pedagogies incorporating information communication technology to help reform the learning environment. In physical education, however, this can seem controversial as physical inactivity is often related to an excess of screen-time. This qualitative research project is an investigation on how physical educators use mobile device applications (apps) in their pedagogy and to what end. A comprehensive literature review is included to examine and engage current academic research of new pedagogies and technology, and their relevance to physical activity. Data were collected through five semi-structured interviews resulting in three overarching themes; i) changing pedagogies in physical education; ii) the perceived benefits and experienced challenges of using apps; and iii) apps, physical activity, and physical education. This study concludes with a discussion of the findings engaging the literature, discussing the implications of findings, and recommendations for future research.Keywords: applications (apps), mobile devices, new pedagogies, physical education
Procedia PDF Downloads 19218874 Physical Fitness Activities for Elementary School Pupils of Matacon Elementary School
Authors: Ariel B. Domagsang
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This study dealt with the physical fitness activities for elementary school pupils of Matacon Elementary School, Polangui South District, Albay Division are presented in this chapter. Specifically, it looked into the pre-post test performance based on the Physical Fitness Test which were subjected to statistical significant test of difference including health- and skill-related improvement. Finally, it came up with physical fitness activities to improve the physical fitness performance of the pupils. The descriptive method through survey using questionnaire-checklist, unstructured interview and document(ary) analysis were utilized in this research. There were 171 grades five and six pupil participants in this undertaking.Keywords: Matakon, fitness acitivities, elementary schools, physical fitness of pupils
Procedia PDF Downloads 53418873 The Effects of an Intervention Program on Psychosocial Factors and Consequences during the COVID-19 Pandemic in a Chilean Technology Services Company: A Quasi-Experimental Study
Authors: Julio Lavarello-Salinas, Verónica Kramm-Vergara, Pedro Gil-La Orden
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During the COVID-19 pandemic, mental health became a relevant factor in people’s performance within organizations. The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of an organizational intervention program on the psychosocial factors of demands, resources, and the consequences of psychosocial risks in a technology services company during the COVID-19 pandemic. A quasi-experimental study was carried out with 105 employees who took part in an eight-week intervention program divided into two large stages. Pre- and post- measurements were collected using the UNIPSICO Questionnaire, considering its factors of demands, resources, and consequences of psychosocial risks. The Spanish Burnout Inventory (SBI) was also included. The results showed significant improvements in the perception of some psychosocial demand factors, all the resource factors, and all the consequences of psychosocial risks, except the guilt dimension of the SBI. Thus, we can conclude that the program was effective and that the study limitations should be improved in future studies.Keywords: UNIPSICO questionnaire, occupational health, work stress, work psychosocial risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 10418872 Effectiveness of Intraoperative Heparinization in Neonatal and Pediatric Patients with Congenital Heart Diseases: Focus in Heparin Resistance
Authors: Karakhalis N. B.
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This study aimed to determine the prevalence of heparin resistance among cardiac surgical pediatric and neonatal patients and identify associated risk factors. Materials and Methods: The study included 306 pediatric and neonatal patients undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery. Patients whose activated clotting time (ACT) targets were achieved after the first administration of heparin formed the 1st group (n=280); the 2nd group (n=26) included patients with heparin resistance. The initial assessment of the haemostasiological profile included determining the PT, aPPT, FG, AT III activity, and INR. Intraoperative control of heparinization was carried out with a definition of ACT using a kaolin activator. A weight-associated protocol at the rate of 300 U/kg with target values of ACT >480 sec was used for intraoperative heparinization. Results: The heparin resistance was verified in 8.5% of patients included in the study. Repeated heparin administration at the maximum dose of≥600 U/kg is required in 80.77% of cases. Despite additional heparinization, 19.23% of patients had FFP infusion. There was reduced antithrombin activity in the heparin resistance group (p=0.01). Most patients with heparin resistance (57.7%) were pretreated with low molecular weight heparins during the preoperative period. Conclusion: Determining the initial level of antithrombin activity can predict the risk of developing heparin resistance. The factor analysis verified hidden risk factors for heparin resistance to the heparin pretreatment, chronic hypoxia, and chronic heart failure.Keywords: congenital heart disease, heparin, antithrombin, activated clotting time, heparin resistance
Procedia PDF Downloads 7918871 Birth Weight, Weight Gain and Feeding Pattern as Predictors for the Onset of Obesity in School Children
Authors: Thimira Pasas P, Nirmala Priyadarshani M, Ishani R
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Obesity is a global health issue. Early identification is essential to plan interventions and intervene than to reduce the worsening of obesity and its consequences on the health issues of the individual. Childhood obesity is multifactorial, with both modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors. A genetically susceptible individual (unmodifiable), when placed in an obesogenic environment (modifiable), is likely to become obese in onset and progression. The present study was conducted to identify the age of onset of childhood obesity and the influence of modifiable risk factors for childhood obesity among school children living in a suburban area of Sri Lanka. The study population was aged 11-12 years of Piliyandala Educational Zone. Data were collected from 11–12-year-old school children attending government schools in the Piliyandala Educational Zone. They were using a validated, pre-tested self-administered questionnaire. A stratified random sampling method was performed to select schools and to select a representative sample to include all 3 types of government schools of students due to the prevailing pandemic situation, information from the last school medical inspection on data from 2020used for this purpose. For each obese child identified, 2 non-obese children were selected as controls. A single representative from the area was selected by using a systematic random sampling method with a sampling interval of 3. Data was collected using a validated, pre-tested self-administered questionnaire and the Child Health Development Record of the child. An introduction, which included explanations and instructions for filing the questionnaire, was carried out as a group activity prior to distributing the questionnaire among the sample. The results of the present study aligned with the hypothesis that the age of onset of childhood obesity and prediction must be within the first two years of child life. A total of 130 children (66 males: 64 females) participated in the study. The age of onset of obesity was seen to be within the first two years of life. The risk of obesity at 11-12 years of age was Obesity risk was identified at 3-time s higher among females who underwent rapid weight gain within their infancy period. Consuming milk prior to breakfast emerged as a risk factor that increases the risk of obesity by three times. The current study found that the drink before breakfast tends to increase the obesity risk by 3-folds, especially among obese females. Proper monitoring must be carried out to identify the rapid weight gain, especially within the first 2 years of life. Consumption of mug milk before breakfast tends to increase the obesity risk by 3 times. Identification of the confounding factors, proper awareness of the mothers/guardians and effective proper interventions need to be carried out to reduce the obesity risk among school children in the future.Keywords: childhood obesity, school children, age of onset, weight gain, feeding pattern, activity level
Procedia PDF Downloads 13918870 Utilization of Safety Measures in Prevention of Site Accidents in Nigerian Construction Industry
Authors: Samuel Opeyemi Williams, Razali Adul Hamid, Mohd Saidin Misman, Dominic Ileyemi Ajayi, Taki Eddine Seghier
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Construction industry is famous with hazardous and high-risk environment with operatives facing a greater risk of work-related fatality or injury than operatives in other industries. It is characterised with different types of accident, ranging from electrocution, trip and slip, fall from height, struck-by, explosion, trench collapse, to scaffolding accidents, with each type being caused by different factors. However, accidents are unplanned, unforeseeable and unexpected events, but regardless of the high-risk nature of the industry, accidents are preventable. The aim of the paper is to determine the extent of the utilization of the safety measures, as well as identifying the factors underlining the non-usage. A research methodology consisting of a literature review was used to identify the types and causes of site accidents, while a well-structured questionnaire was used to determine the level of the usage of safety measures on site. The data were analysed with the results revealing the use of protective clothing, safety helmet, first aid, protective shoe, safety belt, and face shield to aid safety of workers, as well as ascribing non-usage of safety measures to cost, ignorance, lack of experts and non-inclusion in contract document. Recommendations are included in the paper suggesting the enforcement of the utilization of safety measures in reducing the spate of accident occurrence on construction sites.Keywords: construction industry, safety measures, accident, prevention
Procedia PDF Downloads 31318869 Calculating Collision Risk Exposures and Risk Probabilities at Container Terminals
Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde
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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure
Procedia PDF Downloads 38418868 Posterior Circulation Ischemic Strokes in Olympic and Division 1 Wrestlers
Authors: Christen Kutz
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Objective: The aim of this study is to review a case series of 4 high-level Olympic and Division 1 wrestlers who experienced debilitating posterior circulation ischemic strokes during or after a competitive wrestling event and to identify risk factors, etiology and outcomes of stroke in young, healthy elite wrestlers. Background: Stroke occurs in one in 10,000 people under age 64. In young adults, the most common causes of stroke are cardiac embolism, hypercoagulable state, and vasculopathy. One-third of these strokes occur in young, fit individuals. There is little published literature about ischemic strokes that occur in wrestlers. Based on the nature of wrestling, the risk of injury or dissection to neurovascular structures may be a possible theory, but very few case reports exist. Methodology: 4 wrestlers under the age of 44 with a known history of ischemic stroke participated in individual interviews either in person or virtually. Each of the wrestlers provided their demographic information, wrestling background, clinical presentation at the time of stroke, imaging results, identification of potential risk factors, acute treatment and recovery. Results: 3 white male Division 1 wrestlers (2 Lehigh University, 1 Lock Haven University) and 1 black male 2008 Olympian experienced posterior circulation strokes. Case #1 felt a “pop” while wrestling (lateral medullary infarct, possible vertebral artery dissection); Case #2 awoke with severe vertigo, sweating, and vomiting after wrestling the previous day (left cerebellar infarct, (+) protein S deficiency); Case #3 severe vertigo, ataxia, and sensation of impending doom after wrestling earlier that week (left cerebellar infarct, hypoplastic left vertebral artery (+) anti-cardiolipin antibodies). Case #4 severe dizziness, confusion (left cerebellar stroke, vertebral artery dissection, small PFO). Conclusion: 3 wrestlers were started on anti-platelet therapy, risk factors were modified, and returned to their sport. 1 wrestler was placed on anti-coagulation and retired from competition.Keywords: stroke, wrestling, Olympic, posterior circulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 7518867 Future Research on the Resilience of Tehran’s Urban Areas Against Pandemic Crises Horizon 2050
Authors: Farzaneh Sasanpour, Saeed Amini Varaki
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Resilience is an important goal for cities as urban areas face an increasing range of challenges in the 21st century; therefore, according to the characteristics of risks, adopting an approach that responds to sensitive conditions in the risk management process is the resilience of cities. In the meantime, most of the resilience assessments have dealt with natural hazards and less attention has been paid to pandemics.In the covid-19 pandemic, the country of Iran and especially the metropolis of Tehran, was not immune from the crisis caused by its effects and consequences and faced many challenges. One of the methods that can increase the resilience of Tehran's metropolis against possible crises in the future is future studies. This research is practical in terms of type. The general pattern of the research will be descriptive-analytical and from the point of view that it is trying to communicate between the components and provide urban resilience indicators with pandemic crises and explain the scenarios, its future studies method is exploratory. In order to extract and determine the key factors and driving forces effective on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), the method of structural analysis of mutual effects and Micmac software was used. Therefore, the primary factors and variables affecting the resilience of Tehran's urban areas were set in 5 main factors, including physical-infrastructural (transportation, spatial and physical organization, streets and roads, multi-purpose development) with 39 variables based on mutual effects analysis. Finally, key factors and variables in five main areas, including managerial-institutional with five variables; Technology (intelligence) with 3 variables; economic with 2 variables; socio-cultural with 3 variables; and physical infrastructure, were categorized with 7 variables. These factors and variables have been used as key factors and effective driving forces on the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), in explaining and developing scenarios. In order to develop the scenarios for the resilience of Tehran's urban areas against pandemic crises (Covid-19), intuitive logic, scenario planning as one of the future research methods and the Global Business Network (GBN) model were used. Finally, four scenarios have been drawn and selected with a creative method using the metaphor of weather conditions, which is indicative of the general outline of the conditions of the metropolis of Tehran in that situation. Therefore, the scenarios of Tehran metropolis were obtained in the form of four scenarios: 1- solar scenario (optimal governance and management leading in smart technology) 2- cloud scenario (optimal governance and management following in intelligent technology) 3- dark scenario (optimal governance and management Unfavorable leader in intelligence technology) 4- Storm scenario (unfavorable governance and management of follower in intelligence technology). The solar scenario shows the best situation and the stormy scenario shows the worst situation for the Tehran metropolis. According to the findings obtained in this research, city managers can, in order to achieve a better tomorrow for the metropolis of Tehran, in all the factors and components of urban resilience against pandemic crises by using future research methods, a coherent picture with the long-term horizon of 2050, from the path Provide urban resilience movement and platforms for upgrading and increasing the capacity to deal with the crisis. To create the necessary platforms for the realization, development and evolution of the urban areas of Tehran in a way that guarantees long-term balance and stability in all dimensions and levels.Keywords: future research, resilience, crisis, pandemic, covid-19, Tehran
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