Search results for: beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution

Authors: Guncel Ozturk

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Background: Rhinoplasty is the most commonly performed cosmetic operations in plastic surgery. Maneuvers used in rhinoplasty lead to a firm and stiff nasal tip in the early postoperative months. This unnatural stability of the nose may easily cause distortion in the reshaped nose after severe trauma. Moreover, a firm nasal tip may cause difficulties in performing activities such as touching, hugging, or kissing. Decreasing the stability and increasing the mobility of the nasal tip would help rhinoplasty patients to avoid these small but relatively important problems. Methods: We use delivery approach with closed rhinoplasty and changed positions of intranasal incisions to reach a dynamic and mobile nose. A total of 203 patients who had undergone primary closed rhinoplasty in private practice were inspected retrospectively. Posterior strut flap that was connected with connective tissues in the caudal of septum and the medial crurals were formed. Cartilage of the posterior strut graft was left 2 mm thick in the distal part of septum, it was cut vertically, and the connective tissue in the distal part was preserved. Results: The median patient age was 24 (range 17-42) years. The median follow-up period was15.2 (range12-26) months. Patient satisfaction was assessed with the 'Rhinoplasty Outcome Evaluation' (ROE) questionnaire. Twelve months after surgeries, 87.5% of patients reported excellent outcomes, according to ROE. Conclusion: The soft tissue connections between that segment and surrounding structures should be preserved to save the support of the tip while having a mobile tip at the same time with this method. These modifications would access to a mobile, non-stiff, and dynamic nasal tip in the early postoperative months. Further and prospective studies should be performed for supporting this method.

Keywords: closed rhinoplasty, dynamic, mobile, tip

Procedia PDF Downloads 133

Authors: Shilkin A.G., Goncharov D.V., Rotanov D.A., Voitecha M.A., Kulyagina Y.I., Mochalova U.E.

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Context: Phacoemulsification is a surgical technique used to remove cataracts, but it has a higher number of complications when dense cataracts are present. The risk factors include thin posterior capsule, dense nucleus fragments, and prolonged exposure to high-power ultrasound. To minimize these complications, various methods are used. Research aim: The aim of this study is to develop and implement optimal methods of ultrasound phacoemulsification for dense cataracts in order to minimize postoperative complications. Methodology: The study involved 36 eyes of dogs with dense cataracts over a period of 5 years. The surgeries were performed using a LEICA 844 surgical microscope and an Oertli Faros phacoemulsifier. The surgical techniques included the optimal technique for breaking the nucleus, bimanual surgery, and the use of Akahoshi prechoppers. Findings: The complications observed during the surgery included rupture of the posterior capsule and the need for anterior vitrectomy. Complications in the postoperative period included corneal edema and uveitis. Theoretical importance: This study contributes to the field by providing insights into the special features of phacoemulsification for dense cataracts. It highlights the importance of using specific techniques and settings to minimize complications. Data collection and analysis procedures: The data for the study were collected from surgeries performed on dogs with dense cataracts. The complications were documented and analyzed. Question addressed: The study addressed the question of how to minimize complications during phacoemulsification surgery for dense cataracts. Conclusion: By following the optimal techniques, settings, and using prechoppers, the surgery for dense cataracts can be made safer and faster, minimizing the risks and complications.

Keywords: dense cataracts, phacoemulsification, phacoemulsification of cataracts in elderly dogs, осложнения факоэмульсификации

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Erdal Eroğlu, Özhan Çetinkaya

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The purpose of this paper is to show how state plays a regulatory role in the relations of distribution by analyzing tax and expenditure in Turkey. This paper has two main arguments. First, state intervenes in economic and social life via budget policies and steers the relations of distribution within the scope of the reproduction of the capital accumulation and legitimacy. Secondly, a great amount of public expenditure benefits capital owners while state gains its tax income mainly from low and middle income groups.

Keywords: distribution, public expenditure, state budget, taxes

Procedia PDF Downloads 531

Authors: A. Kherraf, M. Bouziane, L. Azzouzi, R. Habbal

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Introduction: Hypocalcaemia is a rare cause of heart failure. We report the clinical case of a young patient with reversible dilated cardiomyopathy secondary to hypocalcaemia in the context of hyperparathyroidism. Clinical case: We report the clinical case of a 23-year-old patient with a history of thyroidectomy for papillary thyroid carcinoma 3 years previously, who presented to the emergency room with a progressive onset dyspnea and edema of the lower limbs. Clinical examination showed hypotension at 90/70 mmHg, tachycardia at 102 bpm, and edema of the lower limbs. The ECG showed a regular sinus rhythm with a prolonged corrected QT interval to 520ms. The chest x-ray showed cardiomegaly. Echocardiography revealed dilated cardiomyopathy with biventricular dysfunction and a left ventricular ejection fraction of 45%, as well as moderate mitral insufficiency by restriction of the posterior mitral leaflet, moderate tricuspid insufficiency, and a dilated inferior vena cava with a pulmonary arterial pressure estimated at 46 mmHg. Blood tests revealed severe hypocalcemia at 38 mg / l with normal albumin and thyroxine levels, as well as hyperphosphatemia and increased TSH. The patient received calcium intake and vitamin D supplementation and was treated with beta blockers, ACE inhibitors, and diuretics with good progress and progressive normalization of cardiac function. Discussion: The cardiovascular manifestations of hypocalcaemia usually appear with deeply low serum calcium levels. This can lead to hypotension, arrhythmias, ventricular fibrillation, prolonged QT interval, or even heart failure. Heart failure is a rare and serious complication of hypocalcemia but most often characterized by complete normalization of myocardial function after treatment. The etiology of the hypocalcaemia, in this case, was probably related to accidental parathyroid removal during thyroidectomy. This is why careful monitoring of calcium levels is recommended after surgery. Conclusion: Hypocalcemic heart failure is rare but reversible heart disease. Systematic monitoring of serum calcium should be performed in all patients after thyroid surgery to avoid any complications related to hypoparathyroidism.

Keywords: hypocalcemia, heart failure, thyroid surgery, hypoparathyroidism

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Shu-Pin Huang, Pai-Chi Teng, Hao-Han Chang, Chia-Hsin Liu, Yung-Lun Lin, Shu-Chi Wang, Hsin-Chih Yeh, Chih-Pin Chuu, Jiun-Hung Geng, Li-Hsin Chang, Wei-Chung Cheng, Chia-Yang Li

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The emergence of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting proteins like PD-1 and PD-L1 has changed the treatment paradigm of bladder cancer. However, not all patients benefit from ICIs, with some experiencing early death. There's a significant need for biomarkers associated with the PD-1 pathway in bladder cancer. Current biomarkers focus on tumor PD-L1 expression, but a more comprehensive understanding of PD-1-related biology is needed. Our study has developed a seven-gene risk score panel, employing a comprehensive bioinformatics strategy, which could serve as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker for bladder cancer. This panel incorporates the FYN, GRAP2, TRIB3, MAP3K8, AKT3, CD274, and CD80 genes. Additionally, we examined the relationship between this panel and immune cell function, utilizing validated tools such as ESTIMATE, TIDE, and CIBERSORT. Our seven-genes panel has been found to be significantly associated with bladder cancer survival in two independent cohorts. The panel was also significantly correlated with tumor infiltration lymphocytes, immune scores, and tumor purity. These factors have been previously reported to have clinical implications on ICIs. The findings suggest the potential of a PD-1 pathway-based transcriptomic panel as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in bladder cancer, which could help optimize treatment strategies and improve patient outcomes.

Keywords: bladder cancer, programmed cell death protein 1, prognostic biomarker, immune checkpoint inhibitors, predictive biomarker

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Abdorreza Rabiee, Shahla Mohammad Hoseini Mirzaei

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The advantages of distributed generations (DGs) based on renewable energy sources (RESs) leads to high penetration level of DGs in distribution network. With incorporation of DGs in distribution systems, the system reliability and security, as well as voltage profile, is improved. However, the protection of such systems is still challenging. In this paper, at first, the related papers are reviewed and then a practical scheme is proposed for coordination of OCRs in distribution system with DGs. The coordination problem is formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) optimization problem with the object function of minimizing total operating time of OCRs. The proposed method is studied based on a simple test system. The optimization problem is solved by General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) to calculate the optimal time dial setting (TDS) and also pickup current setting of OCRs. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed method and its applicability.

Keywords: distributed generation, DG, distribution network, over current relay, OCR, protection coordination, pickup current, time dial setting, TDS

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: O. Anan, D. Böhning, A. Maruotti

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The purpose of the study is to estimate the elusive target population size under a truncated count model that accounts for heterogeneity. The purposed estimator is based on the generalized Poisson distribution (GPD), which extends the Poisson distribution by adding a dispersion parameter. Thus, it becomes an useful model for capture-recapture data where concurrent events are not homogeneous. In addition, it can account for over-dispersion and under-dispersion. The ratios of neighboring frequency counts are used as a tool for investigating the validity of whether generalized Poisson or Poisson distribution. Since capture-recapture approaches do not provide the zero counts, the estimated parameters can be achieved by modifying the EM-algorithm technique for the zero-truncated generalized Poisson distribution. The properties and the comparative performance of proposed estimator were investigated through simulation studies. Furthermore, some empirical examples are represented insights on the behavior of the estimators.

Keywords: capture, recapture methods, ratio plot, heterogeneous population, zero-truncated count

Procedia PDF Downloads 435

Authors: Madani Chahinaz

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This study aims to shed light on the impact of dividend policy on corporate profitability and its relationship to growth, considering the economic developments taking place. The study was conducted on a sample of seven companies for the period from 2014 to 2020, based on a set of determinants to select variables affecting dividend distribution, where the descriptive analytical approach relied upon using graphical data models. The study concluded that companies that follow a well-studied dividend distribution policy enjoy higher profitability rates, which contributes to enhancing their growth in light of the economic developments taking place. There is also no statistically significant relationship between the variables of total asset growth and fixed asset growth and profitability. The study also concluded that there is statistical significance for the relationship between the sales volume growth variable, the self-financing ratio variable, and dividend distribution at a significance level of 0.05, as the random effects model was able to explain 68% of the changes in dividend distribution policy.

Keywords: dividend distribution policy, profitability, growth, self-financing ratio

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Authors: Tayebeh Jameh-Bozorgi, M. Soleymani

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In this research, the role of social networks in promoting ethics in Iranian sports was investigated. The research adopted a descriptive-analytic method, and the survey’s population consisted of all the athletes invited to the national football, volleyball, wrestling and taekwondo teams. Considering the limited population, the size of the society was considered as the sample size. After the distribution of the questionnaires, 167 respondents answered the questionnaires correctly. The data collection tool was chosen according to Hamid Ghasemi`s, standard questionnaire for social networking and mass media, which has 28 questions. Reliability of the questionnaire was calculated using Cronbach's alpha coefficient (94%). The content validity of the questionnaire was also approved by the professors. In this study, descriptive statistics and inferential statistical methods were used to analyze the data using statistical software. The benchmark tests used in this research included the following: Binomial test, Friedman test, Spearman correlation coefficient, Vermont Creamers, Good fit test and comparative prototypes. The results showed that athletes believed that social network has a significant role in promoting sport ethics in the community. Telegram has been known to play a big role than other social networks. Moreover, the respondents' view on the role of social networks in promoting sport ethics was significantly different in both men and women groups. In fact, women had a more positive attitude towards the role of social networks in promoting sport ethics than men. The respondents' view of the role of social networks in promoting the ethics of sports in the study groups also had a significant difference. Additionally, there was a significant and reverse relationship between the sports experience and the attitude of national athletes regarding the role of social networks in promoting ethics in sports.

Keywords: ethics, social networks, mass media, Iranian sports, internet

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: Sivakumar Kottapalli, Abdesselam Abdelouas, Christoph Hartnack

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Spent nuclear fuel generates a mixed field of ionizing radiation to the water. This radiation field is generally dominated by gamma rays and a limited flux of fast neutrons. The fuel cladding effectively attenuates beta and alpha particle radiation. Small fraction of the spent nuclear fuel exhibits some degree of fuel cladding penetration due to pitting corrosion and mechanical failure. Breaches in the fuel cladding allow the exposure of small volumes of water in the cask to alpha and beta ionizing radiation. The safety of the transport of radioactive material is assured by the package complying with the IAEA Requirements for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material SSR-6. It is of high interest to avoid generation of hydrogen inside the cavity which may to an explosive mixture. The risk of hydrogen production along with other radiation gases should be analyzed for a typical spent fuel for safety issues. This work aims to perform a realistic study of the production of hydrogen by radiolysis assuming most penalizing initial conditions. It consists in the calculation of the radionuclide inventory of a pellet taking into account the burn up and decays. Westinghouse 17X17 PWR fuel has been chosen and data has been analyzed for different sets of enrichment, burnup, cycles of irradiation and storage conditions. The inventory is calculated as the entry point for the simulation studies of hydrogen production by radiolysis kinetic models by MAKSIMA-CHEMIST. Dose rates decrease strongly within ~45 μm from the fuel surface towards the solution(water) in case of alpha radiation, while the dose rate decrease is lower in case of beta and even slower in case of gamma radiation. Calculations are carried out to obtain spectra as a function of time. Radiation dose rate profiles are taken as the input data for the iterative calculations. Hydrogen yield has been found to be around 0.02 mol/L. Calculations have been performed for a realistic scenario considering a capsule containing the spent fuel rod. Thus, hydrogen yield has been debated. Experiments are under progress to validate the hydrogen production rate using cyclotron at > 5MeV (at ARRONAX, Nantes).

Keywords: radiolysis, spent fuel, hydrogen, cyclotron

Procedia PDF Downloads 521

Authors: Yanyan Yu, Haiping Ding, Pengjun Chen, Yiou Sun

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Fault depth is an important parameter to be determined in ground motion simulation, and peak ground velocity (PGV) demonstrates good application prospect. Using numerical simulation method, the variations of distribution and peak value of near-fault PGV with different fault depth were studied in detail, and the reason of some phenomena were discussed. The simulation results show that the distribution characteristics of PGV of fault-parallel (FP) component and fault-normal (FN) component are distinctly different; the value of PGV FN component is much larger than that of FP component. With the increase of fault depth, the distribution region of the FN component strong PGV moves forward along the rupture direction, while the strong PGV zone of FP component becomes gradually far away from the fault trace along the direction perpendicular to the strike. However, no matter FN component or FP component, the strong PGV distribution area and its value are both quickly reduced with increased fault depth. The results above suggest that the fault depth have significant effect on both FN component and FP component of near-fault PGV.

Keywords: fault depth, near-fault, PGV, numerical simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 346

Authors: Abhimanyu Kumar, Chirag Gupta

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This work presents a comprehensive study on the employment of Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a three-phase voltage-source inverter to regulate the output voltage efficiently. The inverter is modeled via the Clarke Transformation, considering a scenario where the load is unknown. An LC filter model is developed, demonstrating its efficacy in Total Harmonic Distortion (THD) reduction. The system, when implemented with fault-tolerant multilevel inverter topologies, ensures reliable operation even under fault conditions, a requirement that is paramount with the increasing dependence on renewable energy sources. The research also integrates a Fuzzy Logic based fault tolerance system which identifies and manages faults, ensuring consistent inverter performance. The efficacy of the proposed methodology is substantiated through rigorous simulations and comparative results, shedding light on the voltage prediction efficiency and the robustness of the model even under fault conditions.

Keywords: total harmonic distortion, fuzzy logic, renewable energy sources, MLI

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: T. A. Adesiyan, J. A. Adekoya A. Akinlua, N. Torto

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One hundred and eighty six in situ soil samples of the B–horizon were collected around Gbongan–Odeyinka-Orileowu area, southwestern Nigeria, delineated by longitude 4°15l and 4°30l and latitude 7°14l and 7°31 for a reconnaissance geochemical soil survey. The objective was to determine the distribution pattern of some trace metals in the area with a view to discovering any indication of metallic mineralization. The samples were air–dried and sieved to obtain the minus 230 µ fractions which were used for pH determinations and subjected to hot aqua regia acid digestion. The solutions obtained were analyzed for Ag, As, Au, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Sn, and Zn using atomic absorption spectrometric methods. The resulting data were subjected to simple statistical treatment and used in preparing distribution maps of the elements. With these, the spatial distributions of the elements in the area were discussed. The pH of the soils range from 4.70 to 7.59 and this reflects the geochemical distribution patterns of trace metals in the area. The spatial distribution maps of the elements showed similarity in the distributions of Co, Cr, Fe, Ni, Mn and Pb. This suggests close associations between these elements none of which showed any significant anomaly in the study. The associations might be due to the scavenging actions of Fe–Mn oxides on the elements. Only Ag, Au and Sn on one hand and Zn on the other hand showed significant anomalies, which are thought to be due to mineralization and anthropogenic activities respectively.

Keywords: distribution, metals, Gbongan, Nigeria, mineralization anthropogenic

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Massoud Farag Abouklaish

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The main aim of the present study is to investigate and classify the particle size distribution of sandy soils in Libya. More than fifty soil samples collected from many regions in North, West and South of Libya. Laboratory sieve analysis tests performed on disturbed soil samples to determine grain size distribution. As well as to provide an indicator of general engineering behavior and good understanding, test results are presented and analysed. In addition, conclusions, recommendations are made.

Keywords: Libya, grain size, sandy soils, sieve analysis tests

Procedia PDF Downloads 612

Authors: B. Kekezoglu, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan, Y. Hacialiefendioglu, G. Ucar

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One of the significant problems of energy systems is to supply economic and efficient energy to consumers. Therefore studies has been continued to reduce technical losses in the network. In this paper, the technical losses analyzed for a portion of European side of Istanbul MV distribution network for different compensation scenarios by considering real system and load data and results are presented. Investigated system is modeled with CYME Power Engineering Software and optimal capacity placement has been proposed to minimize losses.

Keywords: distribution system, optimal capacitor placement, reactive power compensation, technical losses

Procedia PDF Downloads 674

Authors: Mary Moner Botros Fanawel

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Many companies use the statistical tool named as statistical quality control, and which can have a high cost for the companies interested on these statistical tools. The evaluation of the quality of products and services is an important topic, but the reduction of the cost of the implantation of the statistical quality control also has important benefits for the companies. For this reason, it is important to implement a economic design for the various steps included into the statistical quality control. In this paper, we describe some relevant aspects related to the economic design of a quality control chart for the proportion of defective items. They are very important because the suggested issues can reduce the cost of implementing a quality control chart for the proportion of defective items. Note that the main purpose of this chart is to evaluate and control the proportion of defective items of a production process.

Keywords: model predictive control, hierarchical control structure, genetic algorithm, water quality with DBPs objectives proportion, type I error, economic plan, distribution function bootstrap control limit, p-value method, out-of-control signals, p-value, quality characteristics

Procedia PDF Downloads 62

Authors: Hanjun Zhao, Ke Zhang, Bojian Zheng

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Background: So far, there is no universal antiviral agent which can inhibit multiple viral infections. More and more drug-resistant viral strains emerge after the antiviral drug application for treatment. Defensins are the front line of host innate immunity and have broad spectrum antibacterial and antiviral effects. However, there is limited data to show if these defensins have good antiviral activity in vivo and what the antiviral mechanism is. Subjects: To investigate a peptide with widespread antivirus activity in vitro and in vivo and illustrate the antiviral mechanism. Methods: Antiviral peptide library designed from mouse beta defensins was synthesized by the company. Recombinant beta defensin was obtained from E. coli. Antiviral activity in vitro was assayed by plaque assay, qPCR. Antiviral activity in vivo was detected by animal challenge with 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. The antiviral mechanism was assayed by western blot, ELISA, and qPCR. Conclusions: We identify a new peptide which has widespread effects against multiple viruses (H1N1, H5N1, H7N9, MERS-CoV) in vitro and has efficient antivirus activity in vivo. This peptide inhibits viral entry into target cells and subsequently blocks viral replication. The in vivo study of the antiviral peptide against other viral infections and the investigation of its more detail antiviral mechanism are ongoing.

Keywords: antiviral peptide, defensin, Influenza A virus, mechanism

Procedia PDF Downloads 400

Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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It is necessary to predict a fatigue crack propagation life for estimation of structural integrity. Because of an uncertainty and a randomness of a structural behavior, it is also required to analyze stochastic characteristics of the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life at a specified fatigue crack size in magnesium alloys under various fatigue load ratio conditions. To investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior, fatigue crack propagation experiments are performed in laboratory air under several conditions of fatigue load ratio using AZ31. By Anderson-Darling test, a goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of the fatigue crack propagation life is performed and the good probability distribution fit for the fatigue crack propagation life is presented. The effect of load ratio on variability of fatigue crack propagation life is also investigated.

Keywords: fatigue crack propagation life, load ratio, magnesium alloys, probability distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 649

Authors: Fawwaz Eniola Fajingbesi, Nur Shahida Midia, Elsheikh M. A. Elsheikh, Siti Hajar Yusoff

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Empirical analysis of lightning related phenomena in real time is extremely dangerous due to the relatively high electric discharge involved. Hence, design and optimization of efficient grounding systems depending on real time empirical methods are impeded. Using numerical methods, the dynamics of complex systems could be modeled hence solved as sets of linear and non-linear systems . In this work, the induced current distribution as lightning strike traverses the soil have been numerically modeled in a 2D axial-symmetry and solved using finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2 AC/DC module. Stratified and non- stratified electrode system were considered in the solved model and soil conductivity (σ) varied between 10 – 58 mS/m. The result discussed therein were the electric field distribution, current distribution and soil ionization phenomena. It can be concluded that the electric field and current distribution is influenced by the injected electric potential and the non-linearity in soil conductivity. The result from numerical calculation also agrees with previously laboratory scale empirical results.

Keywords: current distribution, grounding systems, lightning discharge, numerical model, soil conductivity, soil ionization

Procedia PDF Downloads 312

Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Sijing Xiong, Ran Su, Lit-Hsin Loo, Daniele Zink

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The kidney is a major target for toxic effects of drugs, industrial and environmental chemicals and other compounds. Typically, nephrotoxicity is detected late during drug development, and regulatory animal models could not solve this problem. Validated or accepted in silico or in vitro methods for the prediction of nephrotoxicity are not available. We have established the first and currently only pre-validated in vitro models for the accurate prediction of nephrotoxicity in humans and the first predictive platforms based on renal cells derived from human pluripotent stem cells. In order to further improve the efficiency of our predictive models, we recently developed a high content screening (HCS) platform. This platform employed automated imaging in combination with automated quantitative phenotypic profiling and machine learning methods. 129 image-based phenotypic features were analyzed with respect to their predictive performance in combination with 44 compounds with different chemical structures that included drugs, environmental and industrial chemicals and herbal and fungal compounds. The nephrotoxicity of these compounds in humans is well characterized. A combination of chromatin and cytoskeletal features resulted in high predictivity with respect to nephrotoxicity in humans. Test balanced accuracies of 82% or 89% were obtained with human primary or immortalized renal proximal tubular cells, respectively. Furthermore, our results revealed that a DNA damage response is commonly induced by different PTC-toxicants with diverse chemical structures and injury mechanisms. Together, the results show that the automated HCS platform allows efficient and accurate nephrotoxicity prediction for compounds with diverse chemical structures.

Keywords: high content screening, in vitro models, nephrotoxicity, toxicity prediction

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Authors: Ashish James, Anusha James

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The impressive predictive performance of deep learning techniques on a wide range of tasks has led to its widespread use. Estimating the confidence of these predictions is paramount for improving the safety and reliability of such systems. However, the uncertainty estimates provided by neural networks (NNs) tend to be overconfident and unreasonable. Ensemble of NNs typically produce good predictions but uncertainty estimates tend to be inconsistent. Inspired by these, this paper presents a framework that can quantitatively estimate the uncertainties by leveraging the advances in transfer learning through slight modification to the existing training pipelines. This promising algorithm is developed with an intention of deployment in real world problems which already boast a good predictive performance by reusing those pretrained models. The idea is to capture the behavior of the trained NNs for the base task by augmenting it with the uncertainty estimates from a supplementary network. A series of experiments with known and unknown distributions show that the proposed approach produces well calibrated uncertainty estimates with high quality predictions.

Keywords: uncertainty estimation, neural networks, transfer learning, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

Procedia PDF Downloads 87

Authors: Magdy Abouzeid, Nancy Abouzeid, Afaf Salem

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Background: The elite child athletes are one who has superior athletic talent. Monofin (a single surface swim fin) swimming already proved to be the most efficient method of swimming for human being. This is a novel descriptive study examining myocardial function indices in prepubertal monofin children. The aim of the present study was to determine the influence of long-term monofin training (LTMT), 36 weeks, 6 times per week, 90 min per unit on Myocardial function adaptation in elite child monofin athletes. Methods: 14 elite monofin children aged 11.95 years (± 1.09 yr) took part for (LTMT). All subjects underwent two-dimension, M-mode, and Doppler echocardiography before and after training to evaluate cardiac dimensions and function; septal and posterior wall thickness. Statistical methods of SPSS, means ± SD and paired t test, % of improvement were used. Findings: There was significant difference (p<0.01) and % improvement for all echocardiography parameter after (LTMT). Inter ventricular septal thickness in diastole and in systole increased by 27.9 % and 42.75 %. Left ventricular end systolic dimension and diastole increased by 16.81 % and 42.7 % respectively. Posterior wall thickness in systole very highly increased by 283.3 % and in diastole increased by 51.78 %. Left ventricular mass in diastole and in systole increased by 44.8 % and 40.1 % respectively. Stroke volume (SV) and resting heart rate (HR) significant changed (sv) 25 %, (HR) 14.7 %. Interpretation: the unique swim fin tool and create propulsion and overcome resistance. Further researches are needed to determine the effects of monofin training on right ventricular in child athletes.

Keywords: prepubertal, monofin training, heart athlete's, elite child athlete, echocardiography

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: P. Wlodarczak, J. Soar, M. Ally

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The dramatic rise in the use of Social Media (SM) platforms such as Facebook and Twitter provide access to an unprecedented amount of user data. Users may post reviews on products and services they bought, write about their interests, share ideas or give their opinions and views on political issues. There is a growing interest in the analysis of SM data from organisations for detecting new trends, obtaining user opinions on their products and services or finding out about their online reputations. A recent research trend in SM analysis is making predictions based on sentiment analysis of SM. Often indicators of historic SM data are represented as time series and correlated with a variety of real world phenomena like the outcome of elections, the development of financial indicators, box office revenue and disease outbreaks. This paper examines the current state of research in the area of SM mining and predictive analysis and gives an overview of the analysis methods using opinion mining and machine learning techniques.

Keywords: social media, text mining, knowledge discovery, predictive analysis, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

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The main aim of the paper is to implement a technique using distributed generation in distribution systems to reduce the distribution system losses and to improve voltage profiles. The fuzzy logic technique is used to select the proper location of DG and an analytical method is proposed to calculate the size of DG unit at any power factor. The optimal sizes of DG units are compared with optimal sizes obtained using the genetic algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under Matlab software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: DG Units, sizing of DG units, analytical methods, optimum size

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Adewusi Adeoluwawale, Oronti Iyabosola Busola, Akinola Iretiayo, Komolafe Olusola Aderibigbe

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The complex and radial structure of the low voltage distribution network (415V) makes it vulnerable to faults which are due to system and the environmental related factors. Besides these, the protective scheme employed on the low voltage network which is the fuse cannot be monitored remotely such that in the event of sustained fault, the utility will have to rely solely on the complaint brought by customers for loss of supply and this tends to increase the length of outages. A microcontroller based fault detection scheme is hereby developed to detect low voltage and high voltage fault conditions which are common faults on this network. Voltages below 198V and above 242V on the distribution feeders are classified and detected as low voltage and high voltages respectively. Results shows that the developed scheme produced a good response time in the detection of these faults.

Keywords: fault detection, low voltage distribution feeders, outage times, sustained faults

Procedia PDF Downloads 543

Authors: Soojin Kim, Jiwon Yang, Sungzoon Cho

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As a seasonal product is only in demand for a short time, inventory management is critical to profits. Both markdowns and stockouts decrease the return on perishable products; therefore, researchers have been interested in the distribution of seasonal products with the aim of maximizing profits. In this study, we propose a data-driven seasonal product sales pattern analysis method for individual retail outlets based on observed sales data clustering; the proposed method helps in determining distribution strategies.

Keywords: clustering, distribution, sales pattern, seasonal product

Procedia PDF Downloads 595

Authors: Monika Chuchro

Abstract:

This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain a subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from inflow into waste water treatment plant data which Composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms: K-mean and EM were chosen as a clustering method. The rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of subgroups models. The quality of obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables but with no clustering of data. Results were compared by determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on linear chart. Preliminary results allows to foresee the potential of the presented technique.

Keywords: clustering, data analysis, data mining, predictive models

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