Search results for: Lapindo mudflow disaster

Authors: M. J. Ponnambalam

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Physics Outreach in Jamaica has nearly tripled the number of students doing Introductory Calculus-based Physics at the University of the West Indies (UWI, Mona) within 5 years, and thus has shown the importance of Physics Teaching & Learning in Informal Settings. In 1899, the first president of the American Physical Society called Physics, “the science above all sciences.” Sure enough, exactly one hundred years later, Time magazine proclaims Albert Einstein, “Person of the Century.” Unfortunately, Physics seems to be losing that glow in this century. Many countries, big and small, are finding it difficult to attract bright young minds to pursue Physics. At UWI, Mona, the number of students in first year Physics dropped to an all-time low of 81 in 2006, from more than 200 in the nineteen eighties, spelling disaster for the Physics Department! The author of this paper launched an aggressive Physics Outreach that same year, aimed at conveying to the students and the general public the following messages: i) Physics is an exciting intellectual enterprise, full of fun and delight. ii) Physics is very helpful in understanding how things like TV, CD player, car, computer, X-ray, CT scan, MRI, etc. work. iii) The critical and analytical thinking developed in the study of Physics is of inestimable value in almost any field. iv) Physics is the core subject for Science and Technology, and hence of national development. Science Literacy is a ‘must’ for any nation in the 21st century. Hence, the Physics Outreach aims at reaching out to every person, through every possible means. The Outreach work is split into the following target groups: i) Universities, ii) High Schools iii) Middle Schools, iv) Primary Schools, v) General Public, and vi) Physics teachers in High Schools. The programmes, tools and best practices are adjusted to suit each target group. The feedback from each group is highly positive. e.g. In February 2014, the author conducted in 3 Primary Schools the Interactive Show on ‘Science Is Fun’ to stimulate 290 students’ interest in Science – with lively and interesting demonstrations and experiments in a highly interactive way, using dramatization, story-telling and dancing. The feedback: 47% found the Show ‘Exciting’ and 51% found it ‘Interesting’ – totaling an impressive 98%. When asked to describe the Show in their own words, the leading 4 responses were: ‘Fun’ (26%), ‘Interesting’ (20%), ‘Exciting’ (14%) and ‘Educational’ (10%) – confirming that ‘fun’ & ‘education’ can go together. The success of Physics Outreach in Jamaica verifies the following words of Chodos, Associate Executive Officer of the American Physical Society: “If we could get members to go to K-12 schools and levitate a magnet or something, we really think these efforts would bring great rewards.”

Keywords: physics education, physics popularization, UWI, Jamaica

Procedia PDF Downloads 407

Authors: Cemil Akcay, Goksun Yerlikaya

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Buildings are the living spaces of people with an active role in every aspect of life in today's world. While some structures have survived from the early ages, most of the buildings that completed their lifetime have not transported to the present day. Nowadays, buildings that do not meet the social, economic, and safety requirements of the age return to life with a transformation process. This transformation is called urban transformation. Urban transformation is the renewal of the areas with a risk of disaster and the technological infrastructure required by the structure. The transformation aims to prevent damage to earthquakes and other disasters by rebuilding buildings that have completed their non-earthquake-resistant economic life. It is essential to decide on other issues related to conversion and transformation in places where most of the building stock should transform into the first-degree earthquake belt, such as Istanbul. In urban transformation, property owners, local authority, and contractor must deal at a common point. Considering that hundreds of thousands of property owners are sometimes in the areas of transformation, it is evident how difficult it is to make the deal and decide. For the optimization of these decisions, the use of game theory is foreseeing. The main problem in this study is that the urban transformation is carried out in place, or the building or buildings are transport to a different location. There are many stakeholders in the Istanbul University Cerrahpaşa Medical Faculty Campus, which is planned to be carried out in the process of urban transformation, was tried to solve the game theory applications. An analysis of the decisions given on a real urban transformation project and the logical suitability of decisions taken without the use of game theory were also supervised using game theory. In each step of this study, many decision-makers are classifying according to a specific logical sequence, and in the game trees that emerged as a result of this classification, Nash balances were tried to observe, and optimum decisions were determined. All decisions taken for this project have been subjected to two significant differentiated comparisons using game theory, and as decisions are taken without the use of game theory, and according to the results, solutions for the decision phase of the urban transformation process introduced. The game theory model developed from beginning to the end of the urban transformation process, particularly as a solution to the difficulty of making rational decisions in large-scale projects with many participants in the decision-making process. The use of a decision-making mechanism can provide an optimum answer to the demands of the stakeholders. In today's world for the construction sector, it is also seeing that the game theory is a non-surprising consequence of the fact that it is the most critical issues of planning and making the right decision in future years.

Keywords: urban transformation, the game theory, decision making, multi-actor project

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Authors: Mingjiang Dai, Qian Shi, Fang Hu, Songsheng Lin, Huijun Hou, Chunbei Wei

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A diamond-like carbon (DLC) is considered as a promising protective film since its high hardness and excellent tribological properties. However, DLC films are very sensitive to the environmental condition, its friction coefficient could dramatic change in high humidity, therefore, limited their further application in aerospace, the watch industry, and micro/nano-electromechanical systems. Therefore, most studies focus on the low friction coefficient of DLC films at a high humid environment. However, this is out of satisfied in practical application. An important thing was ignored is that the DLC coated components are usually used in the diversed environment, which means its friction coefficient may evidently change in different humid condition. As a result, the invalidation of DLC coated components or even sometimes disaster occurred. For example, DLC coated minisize gears were used in the watch industry, and the customer may frequently transform their locations with different weather and humidity even in one day. If friction coefficient is not stable in dry and high moisture conditions, the watch will be inaccurate. Thus, it is necessary to investigate the stable tribological behavior of DLC films in various environments. In this study, a-C:H:Si films were deposited by multi-function magnetron sputtering system, containing one ion source device and a pair of SiC dual mid-frequent targets and two direct current Ti/C targets. Hydrogenated carbon layers were manufactured by sputtering the graphite target in argon and methane gasses. The silicon was doped in DLC coatings by sputtering silicon carbide targets and the doping content were adjusted by mid-frequent sputtering current. The microstructure of the film was characterized by Raman spectrometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy while its friction behavior under different humidity conditions was studied using a ball-on-disc tribometer. The a-C:H films with Si content from 0 to 17at.% were obtained and the influence of Si content on the structure and tribological properties under the relative humidity of 50% and 85% were investigated. Results show that the a-C:H:Si film has typical diamond-like characteristics, in which Si mainly existed in the form of Si, SiC, and SiO2. As expected, the friction coefficient of a-C:H films can be effectively changed after Si doping, from 0.302 to 0.176 in RH 50%. The further test shows that the friction coefficient value of a-C:H:Si film in RH 85% is first increase and then decrease as a function of Si content. We found that the a-C:H:Si films with a Si content of 3.75 at.% show a stable friction coefficient of 0.13 in different humidity environment. It is suggestion that the sp3/sp2 ratio of a-C:H films with 3.75 at.% Si was higher than others, which tend to form the silica-gel-like sacrificial layers during friction tests. Therefore, the films deliver stable low friction coefficient under controlled RH value of 50 and 85%.

Keywords: diamond-like carbon, Si doping, moisture environment, table low friction coefficient

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Earthquake is known as one of the most frequent natural hazards in Iran. Therefore, policy making to improve the strengthening of structures is one of the requirements of the approach to prevent and reduce the risk of the destructive effects of earthquakes. In order to choose the optimal policy in the face of earthquakes, this article tries to examine the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compare it with the costs of retrofitting. In this study, the results of adopting the scenario of "action after the earthquake" and the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before the earthquake" have been collected, calculated and finally analyzed by putting them together. Methodologically, data received from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes occurred in the geographical area of Iran, and among them, eight earthquakes have been specifically studied: Miane, Ahar and Haris, Qator, Momor, Khorasan, Damghan and Shahroud, Gohran, Hormozgan and Ezgole. The main basis of the calculations is the data obtained from retrofitting companies regarding the cost per square meter of building retrofitting and the data of the governorate regarding the power of earthquake destruction, the realized costs for the reconstruction and construction of residential units. The estimated costs have been converted to the value of 2021 using the time value of money method to enable comparison and aggregation. The cost-benefit comparison of the two policies of action after the earthquake and retrofitting before the earthquake in the eight earthquakes investigated shows that the country has suffered five thousand billion Tomans of losses due to the lack of retrofitting of buildings against earthquakes. Based on the data of the Budget Law's of Iran, this figure was approximately twice the budget of the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and five times the budget of the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation in 2021. The results show that the policy of retrofitting structures before an earthquake is significantly more optimal than the competing scenario. The comparison of the two policy scenarios examined in this study shows that the policy of retrofitting buildings before an earthquake, on the one hand, prevents huge losses, and on the other hand, by increasing the number of earthquake-resistant houses, it reduces the amount of earthquake destruction. In addition to other positive effects of retrofitting, such as the reduction of mortality due to earthquake resistance of buildings and the reduction of other economic and social effects caused by earthquakes. These are things that can prove the cost-effectiveness of the policy scenario of "strengthening structures before earthquakes" in Iran.

Keywords: disaster economy, earthquake economy, cost-benefit analysis, resilience

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Authors: M. De Iuliis, O. Kammouh, G. P. Cimellaro, S. Tesfamariam

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Community Resilience has gained a significant attention due to the recent unexpected natural and man-made disasters. Resilience is the process of maintaining livable conditions in the event of interruptions in normally available services. Estimating the resilience of systems, ranging from individuals to communities, is a formidable task due to the complexity involved in the process. The most challenging parameter involved in the resilience assessment is the 'downtime'. Downtime is the time needed for a system to recover its services following a disaster event. Estimating the exact downtime of a system requires a lot of inputs and resources that are not always obtainable. The uncertainties in the downtime estimation are usually handled using probabilistic methods, which necessitates acquiring large historical data. The estimation process also involves ignorance, imprecision, vagueness, and subjective judgment. In this paper, a fuzzy-based approach to estimate the downtime of building structures following earthquake events is proposed. Fuzzy logic can integrate descriptive (linguistic) knowledge and numerical data into the fuzzy system. This ability allows the use of walk down surveys, which collect data in a linguistic or a numerical form. The use of fuzzy logic permits a fast and economical estimation of parameters that involve uncertainties. The first step of the method is to determine the building’s vulnerability. A rapid visual screening is designed to acquire information about the analyzed building (e.g. year of construction, structural system, site seismicity, etc.). Then, a fuzzy logic is implemented using a hierarchical scheme to determine the building damageability, which is the main ingredient to estimate the downtime. Generally, the downtime can be divided into three main components: downtime due to the actual damage (DT1); downtime caused by rational and irrational delays (DT2); and downtime due to utilities disruption (DT3). In this work, DT1 is computed by relating the building damageability results obtained from the visual screening to some already-defined components repair times available in the literature. DT2 and DT3 are estimated using the REDITM Guidelines. The Downtime of the building is finally obtained by combining the three components. The proposed method also allows identifying the downtime corresponding to each of the three recovery states: re-occupancy; functional recovery; and full recovery. Future work is aimed at improving the current methodology to pass from the downtime to the resilience of buildings. This will provide a simple tool that can be used by the authorities for decision making.

Keywords: resilience, restoration, downtime, community resilience, fuzzy logic, recovery, damage, built environment

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Authors: Hj Mohd Sidek bin Hj Mohd Yusof

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More than 1.5 billion people around the world are adversely affected by floods. Floods account for about a third of all natural catastrophes, cause more than half of all fatalities and are responsible for a third of overall economic loss around the world. Giving advanced warning of impending disasters can reduce or even avoid the number of deaths, social and economic hardships that are so commonly reported after the event. Integrated catchment management recognizes that it is not practical or viable to provide structural measures that will keep floodwater away from the community and their property. Non-structural measures are therefore required to assist the community to cope when flooding occurs which exceeds the capacity of the structural measures. Non-structural measures may need to be used to influence the way land is used or buildings are constructed, or they may be used to improve the community’s preparedness and response to flooding. The development and implementation of non-structural measures may be guided and encouraged by policy and legislation, or through voluntary action by the community based on knowledge gained from public education programs. There is a range of non-structural measures that can be used for flood hazard mitigation which can be the use measures includes policies and rules applied by government to regulate the kinds of activities that are carried out in various flood-prone areas, including minimum floor levels and the type of development approved. Voluntary actions taken by the authorities and by the community living and working on the flood plain to lessen flooding effects on themselves and their properties including monitoring land use changes, monitoring and investigating the effects of bush / forest clearing in the catchment and providing relevant flood related information to the community. Response modification measures may include: flood warning system, flood education, community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan. A Civil Defense Emergency Management needs to be established for Brunei Darussalam in order to plan, co-ordinate and undertake flood emergency management. This responsibility may be taken by the Ministry of Home Affairs, Brunei Darussalam who is already responsible for Fire Fighting and Rescue services. Several pieces of legislation and planning instruments are in place to assist flood management, particularly: flood warning system, flood education Community awareness and readiness, evacuation arrangements and recovery plan.

Keywords: RTB, radio television brunei, DDMC, district disaster management center, FIR, flood incidence report, PWD, public works department

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Authors: Gustavo Cruz-Bello

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Progreso is a coastal community in Yucatan, Mexico, highly exposed to floods produced by severe storms and tropical cyclones. A participatory cartography approach was conducted to help to reduce floods disasters and assess social vulnerability within the community. The first step was to engage local authorities in risk management to facilitate the process. Two workshop were conducted, in the first, a poster size printed high spatial resolution satellite image of the town was used to gather information from the participants: eight women and seven men, among them construction workers, students, government employees and fishermen, their ages ranged between 23 and 58 years old. For the first task, participants were asked to locate emblematic places and place them in the image to familiarize with it. Then, they were asked to locate areas that get flooded, the buildings that they use as refuges, and to list actions that they usually take to reduce vulnerability, as well as to collectively come up with others that might reduce disasters. The spatial information generated at the workshops was digitized and integrated into a GIS environment. A printed version of the map was reviewed by local risk management experts, who validated feasibility of proposed actions. For the second workshop, we retrieved the information back to the community for feedback. Additionally a survey was applied in one household per block in the community to obtain socioeconomic, prevention and adaptation data. The information generated from the workshops was contrasted, through T and Chi Squared tests, with the survey data in order to probe the hypothesis that poorer or less educated people, are less prepared to face floods (more vulnerable) and live near or among higher presence of floods. Results showed that a great majority of people in the community are aware of the hazard and are prepared to face it. However, there was not a consistent relationship between regularly flooded areas with people’s average years of education, house services, or house modifications against heavy rains to be prepared to hazards. We could say that the participatory cartography intervention made participants aware of their vulnerability and made them collectively reflect about actions that can reduce disasters produced by floods. They also considered that the final map could be used as a communication and negotiation instrument with NGO and government authorities. It was not found that poorer and less educated people are located in areas with higher presence of floods.

Keywords: climate change, floods, Mexico, participatory mapping, social vulnerability

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Authors: Kazi Ashief Mahmood

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Geographically Bangladesh is located in a natural hazard prone area. Compared to the rest of the areas, the coastal sub-districts are more vulnerable to climate variability and change. However, the hydro-geophysical reality of the sub-districts predominantly determines their contexts of vulnerability and its nature differs accordingly. Intriguingly enough, the poorest of the areas appear to be the most cornered among the different vulnerable sectors. Among of these deprived segments; however, the women, the persons with disability and the minorities are generally more vulnerable and they face a high risk of marginalized. The most threatening hydro-geophysical climate vulnerability have been created by prolonged dry season as observed at Koyra Upazilla in Khulna districts and Shyamnagar in Satkhira districts. The prolonged dry season creates severe surface salinity by which farmers cannot produce or use their to cultivate. The absence of land-based production and employment in the area has led to severe food insecurity. As a result, farmers tend to change their livelihood option and many of them are forced to migrate to the other areas of the country in search of livelihood. Besides salinity intrusion, water logging, drought and different climate change induced hazards are endangering safe drinking water sources and putting small-holders out of agriculture-based livelihoods in the Koyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla. A sizeable fraction of small-holders are still trying to hold on to their small scale shrimp production, despite being under pressure to sell off their cultivating lands to their influential shrimp merchants. While their desperate effort to take advantage of the increasing salinity is somewhat successful, their families still face a greater risk of health hazards owing to the lack of safe drinking water. Unless the issues of salinity in drinking water cannot be redressed, the state of the affected people will be in great jeopardy. Most of the inhabitants of oKyra and Shyamnagar Upazilla are living under the poverty line. Thus, poverty is a major factor that intensifies the vulnerability caused by hydro-geophysical climatic conditions. The government and different NGOs are trying to improve the present scenario by implementing different disaster risk reduction projects along with poverty reduction for community empowerment.

Keywords: assessment, climate change, climate induced hazards, coastal zone

Procedia PDF Downloads 403

Authors: X. Wang

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Timely and accurate information on urban building damage caused by earthquake is important basis for disaster assessment and emergency relief. Very high resolution (VHR) remotely sensed imagery containing abundant fine-scale information offers a large quantity of data for detecting and assessing urban building damage in the aftermath of earthquake disasters. However, the accuracy obtained using spectral features alone is comparatively low, since building damage, intact buildings and pavements are spectrally similar. Therefore, it is of great significance to detect urban building damage effectively using multi-source data. Considering that in general height or geometric structure of buildings change dramatically in the devastated areas, a novel multi-stage urban building damage detection method, using bi-temporal spectral, height and corner information, was proposed in this study. The pre-event height information was generated using stereo VHR images acquired from two different satellites, while the post-event height information was produced from airborne LiDAR data. The corner information was extracted from pre- and post-event panchromatic images. The proposed method can be summarized as follows. To reduce the classification errors caused by spectral similarity and errors in extracting height information, ground surface, shadows, and vegetation were first extracted using the post-event VHR image and height data and were masked out. Two different types of building damage were then extracted from the remaining areas: the height difference between pre- and post-event was used for detecting building damage showing significant height change; the difference in the density of corners between pre- and post-event was used for extracting building damage showing drastic change in geometric structure. The initial building damage result was generated by combining above two building damage results. Finally, a post-processing procedure was adopted to refine the obtained initial result. The proposed method was quantitatively evaluated and compared to two existing methods in Port au Prince, Haiti, which was heavily hit by an earthquake in January 2010, using pre-event GeoEye-1 image, pre-event WorldView-2 image, post-event QuickBird image and post-event LiDAR data. The results showed that the method proposed in this study significantly outperformed the two comparative methods in terms of urban building damage extraction accuracy. The proposed method provides a fast and reliable method to detect urban building collapse, which is also applicable to relevant applications.

Keywords: building damage, corner, earthquake, height, very high resolution (VHR)

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Authors: Youlu Huang, Huanjun Jiang

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A large number of old masonry buildings built in the last century still remain in the city. It generates the problems of unsafety, obsolescence, and non-habitability. In recent years, many old buildings have been reconstructed through renovating façade, strengthening, and adding floors. However, most projects only provide a solution for a single problem. It is difficult to comprehensively solve problems of poor safety and lack of building functions. Therefore, a comprehensive functional renovation program of adding reinforced concrete frame story at the bottom via integrally lifting the building and then strengthening the building was put forward. Based on field measurement and YJK calculation software, the seismic performance of an actual three-story masonry structure in Shanghai was identified. The results show that the material strength of masonry is low, and the bearing capacity of some masonry walls could not meet the code requirements. The elastoplastic time history analysis of the structure was carried out by using SAP2000 software. The results show that under the 7 degrees rare earthquake, the seismic performance of the structure reaches 'serious damage' performance level. Based on the code requirements of the stiffness ration of the bottom frame (lateral stiffness ration of the transition masonry story and frame story), the bottom frame story was designed. The integral lifting process of the masonry building was introduced based on many engineering examples. The reinforced methods for the bottom frame structure strengthened by the steel-reinforced mesh mortar surface layer (SRMM) and base isolators, respectively, were proposed. The time history analysis of the two kinds of structures, under the frequent earthquake, the fortification earthquake, and the rare earthquake, was conducted by SAP2000 software. For the bottom frame structure, the results show that the seismic response of the masonry floor is significantly reduced after reinforced by the two methods compared to the masonry structure. The previous earthquake disaster indicated that the bottom frame is vulnerable to serious damage under a strong earthquake. The analysis results showed that under the rare earthquake, the inter-story displacement angle of the bottom frame floor meets the 1/100 limit value of the seismic code. The inter-story drift of the masonry floor for the base isolated structure under different levels of earthquakes is similar to that of structure with SRMM, while the base-isolated program is better to protect the bottom frame. Both reinforced methods could significantly improve the seismic performance of the bottom frame structure.

Keywords: old buildings, adding story, seismic strengthening, seismic performance

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Authors: Jan Schmitt, Sophie Fischer

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After the Corona pandemic, climate change is a further, long-lasting challenge the society must deal with. An ongoing climate change need to be prevented. Nevertheless, the adoption tothe already changed climate conditionshas to be focused in many sectors. Recently, the decisive role of the economic sector with high value added can be seen in the Corona crisis. Hence, manufacturing industry as such a sector, needs to be prepared for climate change and adaption. Several examples from the manufacturing industry show the importance of a strategic effort in this field: The outsourcing of a major parts of the value chain to suppliers in other countries and optimizing procurement logistics in a time-, storage- and cost-efficient manner within a network of global value creation, can lead vulnerable impacts due to climate-related disruptions. E.g. the total damage costs after the 2011 flood disaster in Thailand, including costs for delivery failures, were estimated at 45 billion US dollars worldwide. German car manufacturers were also affected by supply bottlenecks andhave close its plant in Thailand for a short time. Another OEM must reduce the production output. In this contribution, a game-based learning approach is presented, which should enable manufacturing companies to derive their own strategies for climate adaption out of a mix of different actions. Based on data from a regional study of small, medium and large manufacturing companies in Mainfranken, a strongly industrialized region of northern Bavaria (Germany) the game-based learning approach is designed. Out of this, the actual state of efforts due to climate adaption is evaluated. First, the results are used to collect single actions for manufacturing companies and second, further actions can be identified. Then, a variety of climate adaption activities can be clustered according to the scope of activity of the company. The combination of different actions e.g. the renewal of the building envelope with regard to thermal insulation, its benefits and drawbacks leads to a specific strategy for climate adaption for each company. Within the game-based approach, the players take on different roles in a fictionalcompany and discuss the order and the characteristics of each action taken into their climate adaption strategy. Different indicators such as economic, ecologic and stakeholder satisfaction compare the success of the respective measures in a competitive format with other virtual companies deriving their own strategy. A "play through" climate change scenarios with targeted adaptation actions illustrate the impact of different actions and their combination onthefictional company.

Keywords: business strategy, climate change, climate adaption, game-based learning

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Authors: Naohiro Nakamura, Takuya Kinoshita, Hiroshi Fukuyama

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The 2011 off The Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake caused considerable damage to wide areas of eastern Japan. A large number of earthquake observation records were obtained at various places. To design more earthquake-resistant buildings and improve earthquake disaster prevention, it is necessary to utilize these data to analyze and evaluate the behavior of a building during an earthquake. This paper presents an earthquake response simulation analysis (hereafter a seismic response analysis) that was conducted using data recorded during the main earthquake (hereafter the main shock) as well as the earthquakes before and after it. The data were obtained at a high-rise steel-reinforced concrete (SRC) building in the bay area of Tokyo. We first give an overview of the building, along with the characteristics of the earthquake motion and the building during the main shock. The data indicate that there was a change in the natural period before and after the earthquake. Next, we present the results of our seismic response analysis. First, the analysis model and conditions are shown, and then, the analysis result is compared with the observational records. Using the analysis result, we then study the effect of soil-structure interaction on the response of the building. By identifying the characteristics of the building during the earthquake (i.e., the 1st natural period and the 1st damping ratio) by the Auto-Regressive eXogenous (ARX) model, we compare the analysis result with the observational records so as to evaluate the accuracy of the response analysis. In this study, a lumped-mass system SR model was used to conduct a seismic response analysis using observational data as input waves. The main results of this study are as follows: 1) The observational records of the 3/11 main shock put it between a level 1 and level 2 earthquake. The result of the ground response analysis showed that the maximum shear strain in the ground was about 0.1% and that the possibility of liquefaction occurring was low. 2) During the 3/11 main shock, the observed wave showed that the eigenperiod of the building became longer; this behavior could be generally reproduced in the response analysis. This prolonged eigenperiod was due to the nonlinearity of the superstructure, and the effect of the nonlinearity of the ground seems to have been small. 3) As for the 4/11 aftershock, a continuous analysis in which the subject seismic wave was input after the 3/11 main shock was input was conducted. The analyzed values generally corresponded well with the observed values. This means that the effect of the nonlinearity of the main shock was retained by the building. It is important to consider this when conducting the response evaluation. 4) The first period and the damping ratio during a vibration were evaluated by an ARX model. Our results show that the response analysis model in this study is generally good at estimating a change in the response of the building during a vibration.

Keywords: ARX model, response analysis, SRC building, the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake

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Authors: Cesar Vazquez-Gonzalez, Sophie Avila-Foucat, Leonardo Ortiz-Lozano, Patricia Moreno-Casasola, Alejandro Granados-Barba

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In the last twenty years, academic and scientific literature has been focused on understanding the processes and factors of coastal social-ecological systems vulnerability and resilience. Some scholars argue that resilience and vulnerability are isolated concepts due to their epistemological origin, while others note the existence of a strong resilience-vulnerability relationship. Here we present an ordinal logistic regression model based on the analytical framework about dynamic resilience-vulnerability interaction along adaptive cycle of complex systems and disasters process phases (during, recovery and learning). In this way, we demonstrate that 1) during the disturbance, absorptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to diminish the damage, and exposure sets the thresholds about the amount of disturbance that households can absorb, 2) at recovery, absorptive capacity and external response capacity explain the probability of households capitals to recovery faster (resilience as an outcome) from damage, and 3) at learning, adaptive capacity (resilience as a core of attributes) explains the probability of households adaptation measures based on the enhancement of physical capital. As a result, during the disturbance phase, exposure has the greatest weight in the probability of capital’s damage, and households with absorptive and external response capacity elements absorbed the impact of floods in comparison with households without these elements. At the recovery phase, households with absorptive and external response capacity showed a faster recovery on their capital; however, the damage sets the thresholds of recovery time. More importantly, diversity in financial capital increases the probability of recovering other capital, but it becomes a liability so that the probability of recovering the household finances in a longer time increases. At learning-reorganizing phase, adaptation (modifications to the house) increases the probability of having less damage on physical capital; however, it is not very relevant. As conclusion, resilience is an outcome but also core of attributes that interacts with vulnerability along the adaptive cycle and disaster process phases. Absorptive capacity can diminish the damage experienced by floods; however, when exposure overcomes thresholds, both absorptive and external response capacity are not enough. In the same way, absorptive and external response capacity diminish the recovery time of capital, but the damage sets the thresholds in where households are not capable of recovering their capital.

Keywords: absorptive capacity, adaptive capacity, capital, floods, recovery-learning, social-ecological systems

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Authors: Pin-Ling Yin, Dung-Ying Lin

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Satellites play an important role in our daily lives, from monitoring the Earth's environment and providing real-time disaster imagery to predicting extreme weather events. As technology advances and demands increase, the tasks undertaken by satellites have become increasingly complex, with more stringent resource management requirements. A common challenge in satellite mission scheduling is the limited availability of resources, including onboard memory, ground station accessibility, and satellite power. In this context, efficiently scheduling and managing the increasingly complex satellite missions under constrained resources has become a critical issue that needs to be addressed. The core of Satellite Onboard Activity Planning (SOAP) lies in optimizing the scheduling of the received tasks, arranging them on a timeline to form an executable onboard mission plan. This study aims to develop an optimization model that considers the various constraints involved in satellite mission scheduling, such as the non-overlapping execution periods for certain types of tasks, the requirement that tasks must fall within the contact range of specified types of ground stations during their execution, onboard memory capacity limits, and the collaborative constraints between different types of tasks. Specifically, this research constructs a mixed-integer programming mathematical model and solves it with a commercial optimization package. Simultaneously, as the problem size increases, the problem becomes more difficult to solve. Therefore, in this study, a heuristic algorithm has been developed to address the challenges of using commercial optimization package as the scale increases. The goal is to effectively plan satellite missions, maximizing the total number of executable tasks while considering task priorities and ensuring that tasks can be completed as early as possible without violating feasibility constraints. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm, test instances of various sizes were generated, and the results were validated through feedback from on-site users and compared against solutions obtained from a commercial optimization package. Numerical results show that the algorithm performs well under various scenarios, consistently meeting user requirements. The satellite mission scheduling algorithm proposed in this study can be flexibly extended to different types of satellite mission demands, achieving optimal resource allocation and enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of satellite mission execution.

Keywords: mixed-integer programming, meta-heuristics, optimization, resource management, satellite mission scheduling

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Authors: Sudikshya Bhandari, Jonathan K. London

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Barpak in northern Nepal represents a unique identity expressed through the local rituals, values, lifeways and the styles of vernacular architecture. The traditional residential buildings and construction practices adopted by the dominant ethnic groups: Ghales and Gurungs, reflect environmental, social, cultural and economic concerns. However, most of these buildings did not survive the Gorkha earthquake in 2015 that made many residents skeptical about their strength to resist future disasters. This led Barpak residents to prefer modern housing designs primarily for the strength but additionally for convenience and access to earthquake relief funds. Post-earthquake reconstruction has transformed the cohesive community, developed over hundreds of years into a haphazard settlement with the imposition of externally-driven building models. Housing guidelines provided for the community reconstruction and earthquake resilience have been used as a singular template, similar to other communities on different geographical locations. The design and construction of these buildings do not take into account the local, historical, environmental, social, cultural and economic context of Barpak. In addition to the physical transformation of houses and the settlement, the consequences continue to develop challenges to sustainability. This paper identifies the major challenges for environmental sustainability with the construction of new houses in post-earthquake Barpak. Mixed methods such as interviews, focus groups, site observation, and documentation, and analysis of housing and neighborhood design have been used for data collection. The discernible changing situation of this settlement due to the new housing has included reduced climatic adaptation and thermal comfort, increased consumption of agricultural land and water, minimized use of local building materials, and an increase in energy demand. The research has identified that reconstruction housing practices happening in Barpak, while responding to crucial needs for disaster recovery and resilience, are also leading this community towards an unsustainable future. This study has also integrated environmental, social, cultural and economic parameters into an assessment framework that could be used to develop place-based design guidelines in the context of other post-earthquake reconstruction efforts. This framework seeks to minimize the unintended repercussions of unsustainable reconstruction interventions, support the vitality of vernacular architecture and traditional lifeways and respond to context-based needs in coordination with residents.

Keywords: earthquake, environment, reconstruction, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Nadeem Yousuf Khan

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This paper proposes the formation of a digital emergency response system (dERS) in the aged, long-term care, and chronic disease setups in the post-COVID healthcare ecosystem, focusing on the Asia Pacific market where the aging population is increasing significantly. It focuses on the use of digital technologies such as wearables, a global positioning system (GPS), and mobile applications to build an integrated care system for old folks with co-morbidities and other chronic diseases. The paper presents a conceptual framework of a connected digital health ecosystem that not only provides proactive care to registered patients but also prevents the damages due to sudden conditions such as strokes by alerting and treating the patients in a digitally connected and coordinated manner. A detailed review of existing digital health technologies such as wearables, GPS, and mobile apps was conducted in context with the new post-COVID healthcare paradigm, along with a detailed literature review on the digital health policies and usability. A good amount of research papers is available in the application of digital health, but very few of them discuss the formation of a new framework for a connected digital ecosystem for the aged care population, which is increasing around the globe. A connected digital emergency response system has been proposed by the author whereby all registered patients (chronic disease and aged/long term care) will be connected to the proposed digital emergency response system (dERS). In the proposed ecosystem, patients will be provided with a tracking wrist band and a mobile app through which the control room will be monitoring the mobility and vitals such as atrial fibrillation (AF), blood sugar, blood pressure, and other vital signs. In addition to that, an alert in case if the patient falls down will add value to this system. In case of any variation in the vitals, an alert is sent to the dERS 24/7, and dERS clinical staff immediately trigger that alert which goes to the connected hospital and the adulatory service providers, and the patient is escorted to the nearest connected tertiary care hospital. By the time, the patient reaches the hospital, dERS team is ready to take appropriate clinical action to save the life of the patient. Strokes or myocardial infarction patients can be prevented from disaster if they are accessible to engagement healthcare. This dERS will play an effective role in saving the lives of aged patients or patients with chronic co-morbidities.

Keywords: aged care, atrial fibrillation, digital health, digital emergency response system, digital technology

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: B. Kriheli, E. Levner, T. C. E. Cheng, C. T. Ng

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During the last decades, research interest in planning, scheduling, and control of emergency response operations, especially people rescue and evacuation from the dangerous zone of marine accidents, has increased dramatically. Until the survivors (called ‘targets’) are found and saved, it may cause loss or damage whose extent depends on the location of the targets and the search duration. The problem is to efficiently search for and detect/rescue the targets as soon as possible with the help of intelligent mobile robots so as to maximize the number of saved people and/or minimize the search cost under restrictions on the amount of saved people within the allowable response time. We consider a special situation when the autonomous mobile robots (AMR), e.g., unmanned aerial vehicles and remote-controlled robo-ships have no operator on board as they are guided and completely controlled by on-board sensors and computer programs. We construct a mathematical model for the search process in an uncertain environment and provide a new fast algorithm for scheduling the activities of the autonomous robots during the search-and rescue missions after an accident at sea. We presume that in the unknown environments, the AMR’s search-and-rescue activity is subject to two types of error: (i) a 'false-negative' detection error where a target object is not discovered (‘overlooked') by the AMR’s sensors in spite that the AMR is in a close neighborhood of the latter and (ii) a 'false-positive' detection error, also known as ‘a false alarm’, in which a clean place or area is wrongly classified by the AMR’s sensors as a correct target. As the general resource-constrained discrete search problem is NP-hard, we restrict our study to finding local-optimal strategies. A specificity of the considered operational research problem in comparison with the traditional Kadane-De Groot-Stone search models is that in our model the probability of the successful search outcome depends not only on cost/time/probability parameters assigned to each individual location but, as well, on parameters characterizing the entire history of (unsuccessful) search before selecting any next location. We provide a fast approximation algorithm for finding the AMR route adopting a greedy search strategy in which, in each step, the on-board computer computes a current search effectiveness value for each location in the zone and sequentially searches for a location with the highest search effectiveness value. Extensive experiments with random and real-life data provide strong evidence in favor of the suggested operations research model and corresponding algorithm.

Keywords: disaster management, intelligent robots, scheduling algorithm, search-and-rescue at sea

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Karima Adilla

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Aceh province, into which Islam convinced to have entered Indonesia in the 12th Century before spreading throughout the archipelago and the rest of Southeast Asia, has several early Islamic mosques that still exist until today. However, due to some circumstances, the restoration and rehabilitation towards those mosques have been made in some periods, while the background was diverse. Concerning this, the research will examine the physical changing aspects of 3 prominent historical mosques in Aceh Besar and Banda Aceh; those are, Indrapuri Mosque, Baiturrahman Grand Mosque, and Baiturrahim Mosque built coincided with the beginning of Islam’s development in Aceh and regarded as eventful mosques. The existence of Indrapuri Mosque built on the remains of the Lamuri Kingdom’s temple is a historical trace that there was Hindu-Buddhist civilization in Aceh before Islam entered and became the majority religion about 98% from Aceh total population. Also, there was the Dutch who colonialized Aceh behind the existence of two famous mosques in Aceh, namely Baiturrahman Grand Mosque and Baiturrahim Mosque, as the colonizer also assisted to rebuild those 2 sacred Mosques to quell the anger of the Acehnese people because their mosque was burnt by the Dutch. Interestingly, despite underwent a long history successively since the rise of Islam after the Hindu-Buddhist kingdom had collapsed, colonialization, conflict, in Aceh, and even experienced the earthquake and tsunami disaster in 2004, those mosques still exist. Therefore, those mosques have been considered as historical silent witnesses. However, it was not merely those reasons that led the mosques underwent several physical changes, otherwise economic, political, social, cultural and religious factors were also highly influential. Instead of directly illustrating the physical changing of those three mosques, this research intends to identify under what condition the physical appearance continuously changing during the sultanate era, the colonial period until post-independent in terms of the architectural style, detail elements, design philosophy, and how the remnants buildings act as medium to bridge the history. A framework will use qualitative research methods by collecting actual data of the mosque's physical change figures through field studies, investigations, library studies and interviews. This research aims to define every trace of historical issues embedded in the physical changing of those mosques as they are intertwined in collecting historical proof. Thus, the result will reveal the characteristic interrelation between history, the mosque architectural style in a certain period, the physical changes background and its impact. Eventually, this research will also explicate a clear inference of each mosque’s role in representing history in Aceh Besar and Banda Aceh specifically, as well as Aceh generally through architectural design concepts.

Keywords: Aceh ancient mosques, Aceh history, Islamic architecture, physical changing

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Authors: Amin Asgarian, Ghyslaine McClure

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Proper seismic evaluation of Non-Structural Components (NSCs) mandates an accurate estimation of floor seismic demands (i.e. acceleration and displacement demands). Most of the current international codes incorporate empirical equations to calculate equivalent static seismic force for which NSCs and their anchorage system must be designed. These equations, in general, are functions of component mass and peak seismic acceleration to which NSCs are subjected to during the earthquake. However, recent studies have shown that these recommendations are suffered from several shortcomings such as neglecting the higher mode effect, tuning effect, NSCs damping effect, etc. which cause underestimation of the component seismic acceleration demand. This work is aimed to circumvent the aforementioned shortcomings of code provisions as well as improving them by proposing a simplified, practical, and yet accurate approach to generate acceleration Floor Design Spectra (FDS) directly from corresponding Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) (i.e. design spectra for structural components). A database of 27 Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings in which Ambient Vibration Measurements (AVM) have been conducted. The database comprises 12 low-rise, 10 medium-rise, and 5 high-rise buildings all located in Montréal, Canada and designated as post-disaster buildings or emergency shelters. The buildings are subjected to a set of 20 compatible seismic records and Floor Response Spectra (FRS) in terms of pseudo acceleration are derived using the proposed approach for every floor of the building in both horizontal directions considering 4 different damping ratios of NSCs (i.e. 2, 5, 10, and 20% viscous damping). Several effective parameters on NSCs response are evaluated statistically. These parameters comprise NSCs damping ratios, tuning of NSCs natural period with one of the natural periods of supporting structure, higher modes of supporting structures, and location of NSCs. The entire spectral region is divided into three distinct segments namely short-period, fundamental period, and long period region. The derived roof floor response spectra for NSCs with 5% damping are compared with the 5% damping UHS and procedure are proposed to generate roof FDS for NSCs with 5% damping directly from 5% damped UHS in each spectral region. The generated FDS is a powerful, practical, and accurate tool for seismic design and assessment of acceleration-sensitive NSCs particularly in existing post-critical buildings which have to remain functional even after the earthquake and cannot tolerate any damage to NSCs.

Keywords: earthquake engineering, operational and functional components (OFCs), operational modal analysis (OMA), seismic assessment and design

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: Ishrat Zakia Sultana

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The consistent persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide against the Rohingya in Burma resulted four major influxes of the Rohingya people to the neighboring country Bangladesh. After the latest influx of October 2016 and August 2017, the total number of Rohingya in Bangladesh stands somewhere between 900,000 to over one million, placing Bangladesh much ahead with the number of refugees compared to Dadaab and Kakuma in Kenya, Bidibidi in Uganda and Zaatari in Jordan. While Bangladesh received recognition and appreciation for receiving a huge number of the Rohingya, one of the fundamental human rights of the Rohingya – education – has never been fulfilled in Bangladesh. The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief of the government of Bangladesh has been looking after the Rohingya and managing various programs for the Rohingya. On its website, the Ministry claims that it provides the basic supports/services to the Rohingya, including providing education. In practice, however, education for the Rohingya include only the provisions for registered Rohingya refugees – who are a very small number of populations among the entire Rohingya hosted in Bangladesh – and that is only up to grade 7 within the registered camps at Teknaf and Ukhia of Cox’s Bazar district of the country. There is no answer of the question, ‘What’s next’? Although refugees in Canada, Sudan, Turkey and other countries have been allowed to go to mainstream schools, Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh are not allowed to do so legally. Due to the lack of proof of nationality of the Rohingya, the government of Bangladesh imposes restrictions on their access to Bangladeshi schools. However, despite their vulnerability and statelessness, many Rohingyas are desperate to pursue education outside the camps and find their own way not only within Cox’s Bazar but also even in the capital city of the country. But they must hide their refugee identity to accomplish this. My research aims to explore how they manage to get admission amid government restrictions on their access to education in the mainstream institutions in Bangladesh. It will reveal how Rohingya people use adopted identity to get access to education in Bangladesh, and how they apply their own techniques to achieve their goals without having government approved identity. This research examined the strategies the Rohingya applied to manage documents related to their identity to ensure their admission to Bangladeshi education institutions – in schools, colleges, and universities. The research employed a qualitative approach. It used semi structured individual interviews and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) with 20 male and female Rohingya refugees who are 18 years old and above, and have enrolled in Bangladeshi education institutions with adopted identity. Also I interviewed 5 local community members and policy makers to understand their perceptions and roles in this process. The findings of this research will allow the policy makers to rethink the outcomes of the restrictions on Rohingya’s education in Bangladesh, the ramifications of the denial of Rohingya’s access to education, and initiate policy dialogues on how to allow Rohingya refugees to pursue education in Bangladesh in legal way.

Keywords: Rohingya, Refugee, Bangladesh, Education

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: Agnetha Schuchardt, Jennifer Hartmann, Laura Schulte, Roman Peperhove, Lars Gerhold

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If critical infrastructures fail, even for a short period of time, it can have significant negative consequences for the affected population. This is especially true for the food sector that is strongly interlinked with other sectors like the power supply. A blackout could lead to several cities being without food supply for numerous days, simply because cash register systems do no longer work properly. Following the public opinion, securing the food supply in emergencies is considered a task of the state, however, in the German context, the key players are private enterprises and private households. Both are not aware of their responsibility and both cannot be forced to take any preventive measures prior to an emergency. This problem became evident to officials and politicians so that the law covering food security was revised in order to include private stakeholders into mitigation processes. The paper will present a scientific review of governmental and regulatory literature. The focus is the inclusion of the food industry through a law reform and the challenges that still exist. Together with legal experts, an analysis of regulations will be presented that explains the development of the law reform concerning food security and emergency storage in Germany. The main findings are that the existing public food emergency storage is out-dated, insufficient and too expensive. The state is required to protect food as a critical infrastructure but does not have the capacities to live up to this role. Through a law reform in 2017, new structures should to established. The innovation was to include the private sector into the civil defense concept since it has the required knowledge and experience. But the food industry is still reluctant. Preventive measures do not serve economic purposes – on the contrary, they cost money. The paper will discuss respective examples like equipping supermarkets with emergency power supply or self-sufficient cash register systems and why the state is not willing to cover the costs of these measures, but neither is the economy. The biggest problem with the new law is that private enterprises can only be forced to support food security if the state of emergency has occurred already and not one minute earlier. The paper will cover two main results: the literature review and an expert workshop that will be conducted in summer 2018 with stakeholders from different parts of the food supply chain as well as officials of the public food emergency concept. The results from this participative process will be presented and recommendations will be offered that show how the private economy could be better included into a modern food emergency concept (e. g. tax reductions for stockpiling).

Keywords: critical infrastructure, disaster control, emergency food storage, food security, private economy, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Raman Sharma, Ashok Kumar, Vipin Koushal

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Healthcare facilities are always seen as places of haven and protection for managing the external incidents, but the situation becomes more difficult and challenging when such facilities themselves are affected from internal hazards. Such internal hazards are arguably more disruptive than external incidents affecting vulnerable ones, as patients are always dependent on supportive measures and are neither in a position to respond to such crisis situation nor do they know how to respond. The situation becomes more arduous and exigent to manage if, in case critical care areas like Intensive Care Units (ICUs) and Operating Rooms (OR) are convoluted. And, due to these complexities of patients’ in-housed there, it becomes difficult to move such critically ill patients on immediate basis. Healthcare organisations use different types of electrical equipment, inflammable liquids, and medical gases often at a single point of use, hence, any sort of error can spark the fire. Even though healthcare facilities face many fire hazards, damage caused by smoke rather than flames is often more severe. Besides burns, smoke inhalation is primary cause of fatality in fire-related incidents. The greatest cause of illness and mortality in fire victims, particularly in enclosed places, appears to be the inhalation of fire smoke, which contains a complex mixture of gases in addition to carbon monoxide. Therefore, healthcare organizations are required to have a well-planned disaster mitigation strategy, proactive and well prepared manpower to cater all types of exigencies resulting from internal as well as external hazards. This case report delineates a true OR fire incident in Emergency Operation Theatre (OT) of a tertiary care multispecialty hospital and details the real life evidence of the challenges encountered by OR staff in preserving both life and property. No adverse event was reported during or after this fire commotion, yet, this case report aimed to congregate the lessons identified of the incident in a sequential and logical manner. Also, timely smoke evacuation and preventing the spread of smoke to adjoining patient care areas by opting appropriate measures, viz. compartmentation, pressurisation, dilution, ventilation, buoyancy, and airflow, helped to reduce smoke-related fatalities. Henceforth, precautionary measures may be implemented to mitigate such incidents. Careful coordination, continuous training, and fire drill exercises can improve the overall outcomes and minimize the possibility of these potentially fatal problems, thereby making a safer healthcare environment for every worker and patient.

Keywords: healthcare, fires, smoke, management, strategies

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Linta Rose, Prasad K. Bhaskaran

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Water-level information along the coast is very important for disaster management, navigation, planning shoreline management, coastal engineering and protection works, port and harbour activities, and for a better understanding of near-shore ocean dynamics. The water-level variation along a coast attributes from various factors like astronomical tides, meteorological and hydrological forcing. The study area is the Head Bay of Bengal which is highly vulnerable to flooding events caused by monsoons, cyclones and sea-level rise. The study aims to explore the extent to which wind and surface pressure can influence water-level elevation, in view of the low-lying topography of the coastal zones in the region. The ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been customized for the Head Bay of Bengal, discretized using flexible finite elements and validated against tide gauge observations. Monthly mean climatological wind and mean sea level pressure fields of ERA Interim reanalysis data was used as input forcing to simulate water-level variation in the Head Bay of Bengal, in addition to tidal forcing. The output water-level was compared against that produced using tidal forcing alone, so as to quantify the contribution of meteorological forcing to water-level. The average contribution of meteorological fields to water-level in January is 5.5% at a deep-water location and 13.3% at a coastal location. During the month of July, when the monsoon winds are strongest in this region, this increases to 10.7% and 43.1% respectively at the deep-water and coastal locations. The model output was tested by varying the input conditions of the meteorological fields in an attempt to quantify the relative significance of wind speed and wind direction on water-level. Under uniform wind conditions, the results showed a higher contribution of meteorological fields for south-west winds than north-east winds, when the wind speed was higher. A comparison of the spectral characteristics of output water-level with that generated due to tidal forcing alone showed additional modes with seasonal and annual signatures. Moreover, non-linear monthly mode was found to be weaker than during tidal simulation, all of which point out that meteorological fields do not cause much effect on the water-level at periods less than a day and that it induces non-linear interactions between existing modes of oscillations. The study signifies the role of meteorological forcing under fair weather conditions and points out that a combination of multiple forcing fields including tides, wind, atmospheric pressure, waves, precipitation and river discharge is essential for efficient and effective forecast modelling, especially during extreme weather events.

Keywords: ADCIRC, head Bay of Bengal, mean sea level pressure, meteorological forcing, water-level, wind

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Anwesha Pathak

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With the increasing number of satellites and space debris, space traffic management (STM) becomes crucial. AI can aid in STM by predicting and preventing potential collisions, optimizing satellite trajectories, and managing orbital slots. Governance frameworks need to address the integration of AI algorithms in STM to ensure safe and sustainable satellite activities. AI and governance play significant roles in the context of satellite activities in space. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, such as machine learning and computer vision, can be utilized to process vast amounts of data received from satellites. AI algorithms can analyse satellite imagery, detect patterns, and extract valuable information for applications like weather forecasting, urban planning, agriculture, disaster management, and environmental monitoring. AI can assist in automating and optimizing satellite operations. Autonomous decision-making systems can be developed using AI to handle routine tasks like orbit control, collision avoidance, and antenna pointing. These systems can improve efficiency, reduce human error, and enable real-time responsiveness in satellite operations. AI technologies can be leveraged to enhance the security of satellite systems. AI algorithms can analyze satellite telemetry data to detect anomalies, identify potential cyber threats, and mitigate vulnerabilities. Governance frameworks should encompass regulations and standards for securing satellite systems against cyberattacks and ensuring data privacy. AI can optimize resource allocation and utilization in satellite constellations. By analyzing user demands, traffic patterns, and satellite performance data, AI algorithms can dynamically adjust the deployment and routing of satellites to maximize coverage and minimize latency. Governance frameworks need to address fair and efficient resource allocation among satellite operators to avoid monopolistic practices. Satellite activities involve multiple countries and organizations. Governance frameworks should encourage international cooperation, information sharing, and standardization to address common challenges, ensure interoperability, and prevent conflicts. AI can facilitate cross-border collaborations by providing data analytics and decision support tools for shared satellite missions and data sharing initiatives. AI and governance are critical aspects of satellite activities in space. They enable efficient and secure operations, ensure responsible and ethical use of AI technologies, and promote international cooperation for the benefit of all stakeholders involved in the satellite industry.

Keywords: satellite, space debris, traffic, threats, cyber security.

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Aminul Haque, Quazi Zahangir Hossain, Dilshad Sharmin Chowdhury

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The human migration is getting growing concern around the world, and recurrent disasters and climate change impact have great influence on migration. Bangladesh is one of the disaster prone countries that/and has greater susceptibility to stress migration by recurrent disasters and climate change. The study was conducted to investigate the factors that have a strong influence on current migration and changing pattern of life and livelihood means of the southwest coastal part of Bangladesh. Moreover, the study also revealed a strong relationship between disasters and migration and appropriate policy concern. To explore this relation, both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to a questionnaire survey at household level and simple random sampling technique used in the sampling process along with different secondary data sources for understanding policy concern and practices. The study explores the most influential driver of migration and its relationship with social, economic and environmental drivers. The study denotes that, the environmental driver has a greater effect on the intention of permanent migration (t=1.481, p-value=0.000) at the 1 percent significance level. The significant number of respondents denotes that abrupt pattern of cyclone, flood, salinity intrusion and rainfall are the most significant environmental driver to make a decision on permanent migration. The study also found that the temporary migration pattern has 2-fold increased compared to last ten (10) years. It also appears from the study that environmental factors have a great implication on the changing pattern of the occupation of the study area and it has reported that about 76% of the respondent now in the changing modality of livelihood compare to their traditional practices. The study bares that the migration has foremost impact on children and women by increasing hardship and creating critical social security. The exposure-route of permanent migration is not smooth indeed, these migrations creating urban and conflict in Chittagong hill tracks of Bangladesh. The study denotes that there is not any safeguard of the stress migrant on existing policy and not have any measures for safe migration and resettlement rather considering the emergency response and shelter. The majority of (98%) people believes that migration is not to be the adoption strategies, but contrary to this young group of respondent believes that safe migration could be the adaptation strategy which could bring a positive result compare to the other resilience strategies. On the other hand, the significant number of respondents uttered that appropriate policy measure could be an adaptation strategy for being the formation of a resilient community and reduce the migration by meaningful livelihood options with appropriate protection measure.

Keywords: environmental driver, livelihood, migration, resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Remy Mpulumba Badiambile, Paul Musa Obadia, Malick Useni Mutayo, Jeef Numbi Mukanya, Patient Nkulu Banza, Tony Kayembe Kitenge, Erik Smolders, Jean-François Picron, Vincent Haufroid, Célestin Banza Lubaba Nkulu, Benoit Nemery

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Background: In July 2021, the Tshikapa river became heavily polluted by mining wastes from a diamond mine in neighboring Angola, leading to massive killing of fish, as well as disease and even deaths among residents living along the Tshikapa and Kasai rivers, a major contributory of the Congo river. The exact nature of the pollutants was unknown. Methods: In a cross-sectional study conducted in the city of Tshikapa in August 2021, we enrolled by opportunistic sampling 65 residents (11 children < 16y) living alongside the polluted rivers and 65 control residents (5 children) living alongside a non-affected portion of the Kasai river (upstream from the Tshikapa-Kasai confluence). We administered a questionnaire and obtained spot urine samples for measurements of thiocyanate (a metabolite of cyanide) and 26 trace metals (by ICP-MS). Metals (and pH) were also measured in samples of river water. Results: Participants from both groups consumed river water. In the area affected by the pollution, most participants had eaten dead fish. Prevalences of reported health symptoms were higher in the exposed group than among controls: skin rashes (52% vs 0%), diarrhea (40% vs 8%), abdominal pain (8% vs 3%), nausea (3% vs 0%). In polluted water, concentrations [median (range)] were only higher for nickel [(2.2(1.4–3.5)µg/L] and uranium [78(71–91)ng/L] than in non-polluted water [0.8(0.6–1.9)µg/L; 9(7–19)ng/L]. In urine, concentrations [µg/g creatinine, median(IQR)] were significantly higher in the exposed group than in controls for lithium [19.5(12.4–27.3) vs 6.9(5.9–12.1)], thallium [0.41(0.31–0.57) vs 0.19(0.16–0.39)], and uranium [0.026(0.013–0.037)] vs 0.012(0.006–0.024)]. Other elements did not differ between the groups, but levels were higher than reference values for several metals (including manganese, cobalt, nickel, and lead). Urinary thiocyanate concentrations did not differ. Conclusion: This study, after an ecological disaster in the DRC, has documented contamination of river water by nickel and uranium and high urinary levels of some trace metals among affected riverine populations. However, the exact cause of the massive fish kill and disease among residents remains elusive. The capacity to rapidly investigate toxic pollution events must be increased in the area.

Keywords: metal contaminants, river water and human urine, pollution by mining wastes, DR Congo

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Authors: Muteb Alotaibi, Graham Clarke, Nick Malleson

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The Hajj religious festival at Mina in Saudi Arabia has always presented the opportunity for injuries or deaths. For example, in 1990, a stampede killed 1426 pilgrims, whilst in 1997, 343 people were killed and 1500 injured due to a fire fuelled by high winds sweeping through the tent city in Mina.Many more minor incidents have occurred since then. It is predicted that 5 million pilgrims will soon perform the ritual at Mina (which is, in effect, a temporary city built each year in the desert), which might lead in the future to severe congestion and accidents unless the research is conducted on actions that contribute positively to improving the management of the crowd and facilitating the flow of pilgrims safely and securely. To help prevent further disasters, it is important to first plan better, more accessible locations for emergency services across Mina to ensure a good service for pilgrims. In this paper, we first use a Location Allocation Model (LAM) within a network GIS to examine the optimal locations for key services in the temporary city of Mina. This has been undertaken in relation to the location and movement of the pilgrims during the six day religious festival. The results of various what-if scenarios have been compared against the current location of services. A major argument is that planners should be flexible and locate facilities at different locations throughout the day and night. The use of location-allocation models in this type of comparative static mode has rarely been operationalised in the literature. Second, we model pilgrim movements and behaviours along with the most crowded parts of the network. This has been modelled using an agent-based model. This model allows planners to understand the key bottlenecks in the network and at what usage levels the paths become critically congested. Thus the paper has important implications and recommendations for future disaster planning strategies. This will enable planners to see at what stage in the movements of pilgrims problems occur in terms of potential crushes and trampling incidents. The main application of this research was only customised for pedestrians as the concentration only for pedestrians who move to Jamarat via foot. Further, the network in the middle of Mina was only dedicated for pedestrians for safety, so no Buses, trains and private cars were allowed in this area to prevent the congestion within this network. Initially, this research focus on Mina city as ‘temporary city’ and also about service provision in temporary cities, which is not highlighted in literature so far. Further, it is the first study which use the dynamic demand to optimise the services in the case of day and night time. Moreover, it is the first study which link the location allocation model for optimising services with ABM to find out whether or not the service location is located in the proper location in which it’s not affecting on crowd movement in mainstream flow where some pilgrims need to have health services.

Keywords: ABM, crowd management, hajj, temporary city

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Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

Abstract:

As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Kim Anema, Matthias Max, Chris Zevenbergen

Abstract:

For any flood risk manager the 'safety paradox' has to be a familiar concept: low probability leads to a sense of safety, which leads to more investments in the area, which leads to higher potential consequences: keeping the aggregated risk (probability*consequences) at the same level. Therefore, it is important to mitigate potential consequences apart from probability. However, when the (perceived) probability is so low that there is no recognizable trend for society to adapt to, addressing the potential consequences will always be the lagging point on the agenda. Preparedness programs fail because of lack of interest and urgency, policy makers are distracted by their day to day business and there's always a more urgent issue to spend the taxpayer's money on. The leading question in this study was how to address the social consequences of flooding in a context of (perceived) low probability. Disruptions of everyday urban life, large or small, can be caused by a variety of (un)expected things - of which flooding is only one possibility. Variability like this is typically addressed with resilience - and we used the concept of Community Resilience as the framework for this study. Drawing on face to face interviews, an extensive questionnaire and publicly available statistical data we explored the 'whole society response' to two recent urban flood events; the Brisbane Floods (AUS) in 2011 and the Dresden Floods (GE) in 2013. In Brisbane, we studied how the societal impacts of the floods were counteracted by both authorities and the public, and in Dresden we were able to validate our findings. A large part of the reactions, both public as institutional, to these two urban flood events were not fuelled by preparedness or proper planning. Instead, more important success factors in counteracting social impacts like demographic changes in neighborhoods and (non-)economic losses were dynamics like community action, flexibility and creativity from authorities, leadership, informal connections and a shared narrative. These proved to be the determining factors for the quality and speed of recovery in both cities. The resilience of the community in Brisbane was good, due to (i) the approachability of (local) authorities, (ii) a big group of ‘secondary victims’ and (iii) clear leadership. All three of these elements were amplified by the use of social media and/ or web 2.0 by both the communities and the authorities involved. The numerous contacts and social connections made through the web were fast, need driven and, in their own way, orderly. Similarly in Dresden large groups of 'unprepared', ad hoc organized citizens managed to work together with authorities in a way that was effective and speeded up recovery. The concept of community resilience is better fitted than 'social adaptation' to deal with the potential consequences of an (im)probable flood. Community resilience is built on capacities and dynamics that are part of everyday life and which can be invested in pre-event to minimize the social impact of urban flooding. Investing in these might even have beneficial trade-offs in other policy fields.

Keywords: community resilience, disaster response, social consequences, preparedness

Procedia PDF Downloads 352