Search results for: income smoothing perspective

Authors: Anastasiia Yu. Timofeeva

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Two new algorithms for nonparametric estimation of errors-in-variables models are proposed. The first algorithm is based on penalized regression spline. The spline is represented as a piecewise-linear function and for each linear portion orthogonal regression is estimated. This algorithm is iterative. The second algorithm involves locally weighted regression estimation. When the independent variable is measured with error such estimation is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. The simulation results have shown the advantage of the second algorithm under the assumption that true smoothing parameters values are known. Nevertheless the use of some indexes of fit to smoothing parameters selection gives the similar results and has an oversmoothing effect.

Keywords: grade point average, orthogonal regression, penalized regression spline, locally weighted regression

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

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It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: N. Sopipan

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In this paper, we study of rainfall time series of weather stations in Nakhon Ratchasima province in Thailand using various statistical methods enabled to analyse the behaviour of rainfall in the study areas. Time-series analysis is an important tool in modelling and forecasting rainfall. ARIMA and Holt-Winter models based on exponential smoothing were built. All the models proved to be adequate. Therefore, could give information that can help decision makers establish strategies for proper planning of agriculture, drainage system and other water resource applications in Nakhon Ratchasima province. We found the best perform for forecasting is ARIMA(1,0,1)(1,0,1)12.

Keywords: ARIMA Models, exponential smoothing, Holt-Winter model

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Authors: Quang Dong Dang

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This paper examines the possible effects of stock market developments by channels on income and wealth inequality. We use the Bayesian Multilevel Model with the explanatory variables of the market’s channels, such as accessibility, efficiency, and market health in six selected countries: the US, UK, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia. We found that generally, the improvements in the stock market alleviate income inequality. However, stock market expansions in higher-income countries are likely to trigger income inequality. We also found that while enhancing the quality of channels of the stock market has counter-effects on wealth equality distributions, open accessibilities help reduce wealth inequality distributions within the scope of the study. In addition, the inverted U-shaped hypothesis seems not to be valid in six selected countries between the period from 2006 to 2020.

Keywords: Bayesian multilevel model, income inequality, inverted u-shaped hypothesis, stock market development, wealth inequality

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Authors: Kevin Wongleedee

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The objective of this research was to study the level of importance of motivation factors from the perspective of international tourist who visited Bangkok, Thailand. The independent variables included gender, age, levels of education, occupation, and income while the dependent variables were ten motivation factors. A simple random sampling method was utilized to get 200 respondents. The majority of respondents were both male and female in almost the same proportion and most were between 21-40 years old. Most were married and had a graduate degree. The average income of the respondents was between $30,000-50,000. The findings revealed the ranking levels of importance by highest mean to lowest mean as follows: Thai food, nature-beaches, spa, tradition markets, shopping places, museums, festivals, night entertainment, conference/expo, and visiting friends. In addition, the overall means is 4.11 with 0.812 SD.

Keywords: international tourist, motivation, revisit, Thailand

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Authors: Hasan Bulent Kantarci

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This paper examine how Zakat provide a fair income redistribution and struggle with poverty. To provide a fair income redistribution and struggle with poverty take place among the fundamental tasks of all countries. Each country seeks a solution for this problem according to their political, economical and administrative styles through applying various economic and financial policies. The same situation gets handled via zakat association in the Islam. Nowadays, we observe different versions of zakat in developed countries. The applications such as negative income tax denote merely a difference from the zakat being applied almost the same way under changed names. But the minimum values to donate the zakat (e.g. 85 gr. gold and 40 animals) get altered and various amounts are put into practice. It might be named as negative income tax instead of zakat, nonetheless, these applications are based on the Holy Koran and the hadith released 1400 years ago. Besides, considering the savage and slavery in the world at those times, we might easily recognize the true value of the zakat applied the first time then in Islamic system. Through zakat is enabled an income transfer by the government so that the poor could reach the minimum level of life standard. To whom the zakat would be donated was not left to people’s heart and encouraged to determine according to objective criteria. Since the zakat is obligatory, the transfer do not get forward by hand but via the government and get distributed, which requires a vast government organization. Through applying the zakat as it must be would achieve to reduce the poverty mostly and ensuring the fair income redistribution.

Keywords: Islamic finance, zakat, income redistribution, circle of poverty, negatif income tax

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Authors: Vikram Singh

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This paper aims to take into account carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation to manage Delhi carbon emissions after a post-Kyoto treaty. This report estimated the influence of the carbon taxes or rebate/compensation cost at the household level. Here, the three possible scenarios will help to comprehend the difference between a straightforward compensation/rebate, and two clearly denoting progressive formula. The straightforward compensation is basically minimizing the regressive applications that will bears on cost. On the other hand, both the progressive formula will generate extra revenue, which will help for feasibility of more efficient, vehicles, appliances and buildings in the low-income household. For the hypothetical case of carbon price $40/tonne, low-income household for both urban and rural region could experience price burden up to 5% and 9% on their income as compared to 3% and 7% for high-income household respectively. The survey report also shown that carbon emission due low-income household are primarily by the substantive requirement like housing and transportation whereas almost 40% emission due to high-income household are by luxurious and non-essential items. The equal distribution of revenue cum incentives will not completely overcome high-income household’s investment in inessential items. However, it will merely help in investing their income in energy efficient and less carbon intensive items. Therefore, the rebate distribution on per capita basis instead on per households will benefit more especially large families at low-income group.

Keywords: household emission, carbon credit, carbon intensity, green house gas emission, carbon generation based insentives

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Authors: Siti Aiysyah Tumin

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This paper looks at the nature of structural changes—the transition of employment from agriculture, to manufacturing, then to different types of services—in different states in Malaysia and links it to income outcomes for households and workers. Specifically, this paper investigates the conditional association between the concentration of different economic activities and income outcomes (household incomes and employee wages) in almost four decades. Using publicly available state-level employment and income data, we found that significant wage premium was associated with “modern” services (finance, real estate, professional, information and communication), which are urban-based services sectors that employ a larger proportion of skilled and educated workers. However, employment in manufacturing and other services subsectors was significantly associated with a lower income dispersion and inequality, alluding to their importance in welfare improvements.

Keywords: employment, labor market, structural change, wage

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Authors: Dimitri Golenko-Ginzburg

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A CPM network project with deterministic activity durations, in which activities require homogenous resources with fixed capacities, is considered. The problem is to determine the optimal schedule of starting times for all network activities within their maximal allowable limits (in order not to exceed the network's critical time) to minimize the maximum required resources for the project at any point in time. In case when a non-critical activity may start only at discrete moments with the pregiven time span, the problem becomes NP-complete and an optimal solution may be obtained via a look-over algorithm. For the case when a look-over requires much computational time an approximate algorithm is suggested. The algorithm's performance ratio, i.e., the relative accuracy error, is determined. Experimentation has been undertaken to verify the suggested algorithm.

Keywords: resource smoothing problem, CPM network, lookover algorithm, lexicographical order, approximate algorithm, accuracy estimate

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Authors: Tania Sharmin

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Energy use, overheating and thermal discomfort in low-income tropical housing remains an under-researched area. This research attempts to explore these aspects in the Loving Community, a housing colony created for former leprosy patients and their families in Ahmedabad in India. The living conditions in these households and working practices of the inhabitants in terms of how the building and its internal and external spaces are used, will be explored through interviews and monitoring which will be based on a household survey and a focus group discussion (FGD). The findings from the study will provide a unique and in-depth account of how the relocation of the affected households to the new, flood-resistant and architecturally-designed buildings may have affected the dwellers’ household routines (health and well-being, comfort, satisfaction and working practices) and overall living conditions compared to those living in poorly-designed, existing low-income housings. The new houses were built under an innovative building project supported by De Montfort University Leicester (DMU)’s Square Mile India project. A comparison of newly-built and existing building typologies will reveal how building design can affect people’s use of space and energy use. The findings will be helpful to design healthier, energy efficient and socially acceptable low-income housing in future, thus addressing United Nation’s sustainable development goals on three aspects: 3 (health and well-being), 7 (energy) and 11 (safe, resilient and sustainable human settlements). This will further facilitate knowledge exchange between policy makers, developers, designers and occupants focused on strategies to increase stakeholders’ participation in the design process.

Keywords: thermal comfort, energy use, low-income housing, tropical climate

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Authors: Sumudu Sameera Perera Kimmantudawage, Chapal Khasnabis

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Technology is changing at a rapid rate, with innovations in robotics being hailed and tested in countries such as Japan, the United States and Australia, however the conversation in a public health context is stagnant. While obvious barriers to robotics use in low and middle-income countries and regions exist, the avoidance of attempting to address these regions of the world may potentially lead to an ever-increasing divide between those of high income countries and those of less. A systematic review was undertaken to determine the number of projects involving research, development and testing of robotics considered low and middle-income regions. Major findings indicate that an overwhelmingly significant number of projects failed to consider low and middle-income countries or regions. These results are unsurprising however alarming, as bridging the divide is an important step forward in achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. It is hoped that this research would spawn future robotics research that focusses on lower and middle-income regions.

Keywords: assistive technology, health equality, robotics, socioeconomic

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Authors: Daoudi Abdelaziz, Mahmoudi Saïd, Chikh Mohamed Amine

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This paper presents a fully automatic segmentation method of the left ventricle at End Systolic (ES) and End Diastolic (ED) in the ultrasound images by means of an implicit deformable model (level set) based on Geodesic Active Contour model. A pre-processing Gaussian smoothing stage is applied to the image, which is essential for a good segmentation. Before the segmentation phase, we locate automatically the area of the left ventricle by using a detection approach based on the Hough Transform method. Consequently, the result obtained is used to automate the initialization of the level set model. This initial curve (zero level set) deforms to search the Endocardial border in the image. On the other hand, quantitative evaluation was performed on a data set composed of 15 subjects with a comparison to ground truth (manual segmentation).

Keywords: level set method, transform Hough, Gaussian smoothing, left ventricle, ultrasound images.

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Authors: D. Sigirli

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The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a commonly used statistical tool for evaluating the diagnostic performance of screening and diagnostic test with continuous or ordinal scale results which aims to predict the presence or absence probability of a condition, usually a disease. When the test results were measured as numeric values, sensitivity and specificity can be computed across all possible threshold values which discriminate the subjects as diseased and non-diseased. There are infinite numbers of possible decision thresholds along the continuum of the test results. The ROC curve presents the trade-off between sensitivity and the 1-specificity as the threshold changes. The empirical ROC curve which is a non-parametric estimator of the ROC curve is robust and it represents data accurately. However, especially for small sample sizes, it has a problem of variability and as it is a step function there can be different false positive rates for a true positive rate value and vice versa. Besides, the estimated ROC curve being in a jagged form, since the true ROC curve is a smooth curve, it underestimates the true ROC curve. Since the true ROC curve is assumed to be smooth, several smoothing methods have been explored to smooth a ROC curve. These include using kernel estimates, using log-concave densities, to fit parameters for the specified density function to the data with the maximum-likelihood fitting of univariate distributions or to create a probability distribution by fitting the specified distribution to the data nd using smooth versions of the empirical distribution functions. In the present paper, we aimed to propose a smooth ROC curve estimation based on the boundary corrected kernel function and to compare the performances of ROC curve smoothing methods for the diagnostic test results coming from different distributions in different sample sizes. We performed simulation study to compare the performances of different methods for different scenarios with 1000 repetitions. It is seen that the performance of the proposed method was typically better than that of the empirical ROC curve and only slightly worse compared to the binormal model when in fact the underlying samples were generated from the normal distribution.

Keywords: empirical estimator, kernel function, smoothing, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Diep Thanh Tung

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This study aims to measure technical efficiency and examine productivity performance of livestock production in regions of Vietnam based on a panel data of 2008–2012. After four years, although there are improvements in efficiency of some regions, low technical efficiency, poor performance of productivity and its compositions are dominant features in almost regions. Households which much depend on livestock income in agricultural income or agricultural income in total income are more vulnerable than the others in term of livestock production.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, meta-frontier, Malmquist, technical efficiency, livestock production

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Authors: Daniel Etim Jacob, Samuel Onadeko, Edem A. Eniang, Imaobong Ufot Nelson

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This paper examined determinants of income diversification among households in support zones communities of national parks in Nigeria. This involved the use household data collected through questionnaires administered randomly among 1009 household heads in the study area. The data obtained were analyzed using probability and non-probability statistical analysis such as regression and analysis of variance to test for mean difference between parks. The result obtained indicates that majority of the household heads were male (92.57%0, between the age class of 21 – 40 years (44.90%), had non-formal education (38.16%), were farmers (65.21%), owned land (95.44%), with a household size of 1 – 5 (36.67%) and an annual income range of ₦401,000 - ₦600,000 (24.58%). Mean Simpson index of diversity showed a general low (0.375) level of income diversification among the households. Income, age, off-farm dependence, education, household size and occupation where significant (p<0.01) factors that affected households’ income diversification. The study recommends improvement in the existing infrastructures and social capital in the communities as avenues to improve the livelihood and ensure positive conservation behaviors in the study area.

Keywords: income diversification, protected area, livelihood, poverty, Nigeria

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Authors: S. Sundarasen, I. Ibrahim

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This study examines whether the legal origin of a country alters the association between corruption and corporate performance in the East Asia and South East Asia Region. A total of 18,286 companies from 14 countries in the East Asia and South East Asia Region are tested using Generalized Least Square (GLS) panel and pool data analysis with the cross-section being the income level. The data is further analyzed in terms of high income, upper middle income and low-income countries within the East and South Asia region. The empirical results indicate that legal origin positively moderates the relationship between a country’s corruption level and firm performance. As for the sub-analysis, legal origin positively moderates only in the high and upper middle-income countries. As for the low-income countries, no significance is documented in both the common and civil law.

Keywords: corruption, performance, legal origin, East Asia and South East Asia Region

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Authors: Affordability, Expenditure Patterns towards Sustainable Consumption in Malaysia

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Safe drinking water is needed for survival. Households have to pay the water bill monthly. However, lower income households are sometimes unable to afford the cost. This study examines water access and affordability among households in Malaysia and the determinants of water affordability using cross-sectional data and multiple regression. The paper expects that the bill for basic water consumption is inversely related to average income. This means that policy makers need to redesign the water tariff to improve the quality of life of lower income households.

Keywords: affordability, sustainable consumption, income, water tariff

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Authors: Muhammad Gillfran Samual, Rinaldy Dalimi, Fauzan Hanif Jufri, Budi Sudiarto, Ismi Rosyiana Fitri

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Solar energy is increasingly recognized as an important future energy source due to its abundant availability and renewable nature. However, the intermittent nature of solar energy can cause fluctuations in the electricity produced, making it difficult to guarantee a stable and reliable electricity supply. One solution that can be implemented is to use batteries in a photovoltaic solar power plant system with a Moving Average control algorithm, which can help smooth and reduce fluctuations in solar power output power. The parameter that can be adjusted in the Moving Average algorithm is the window size or the arithmetic average width of the photovoltaic output power over time. This research evaluates the effect of a change of window size parameter in the Moving Average algorithm on the resulting smoothed photovoltaic output power and the technical effects on batteries, i.e., power and energy usage. Based on the evaluation, it is found that the increase of window size parameter will slow down the response of photovoltaic output power to changes in irradiation and increase the smoothing quality of the intermittent photovoltaic output power. In addition, increasing the window size will reduce the maximum power received on the load side, and the amount of energy used by the battery during the power smoothing process will increase, which, in turn, increases the required battery capacity.

Keywords: battery, intermittent, moving average, photovoltaic, power smoothing

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Authors: Sami Adwan, Alaa Alhaj Ismail, Claudia Girardone

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This paper examines the changes in the value relevance of book value of equity and net income of financial firms over the crisis period. It also examines how these changes vary with three variables, namely, fair value exposure, ownership concentration, and regulatory capital ratios. Using a sample of financial firms operating in the European Economic Area over 2005-2011, our findings suggest that the value relevance of book value of equity increases while that of net income decreases during the financial crisis. We find that more exposure to fair value accounting mitigates the impact of the crisis on the value relevance of book value of equity and net income. We also find that more concentrated ownership appears to have a mitigating impact on the changes in the value relevance of both book value of equity and net income in times of financial crisis. Finally, we find evidence that the level of regulatory capital ratios tends to have an attenuating effect on the changes in the value relevance of net income (but not book value of equity) in times of financial crisis.

Keywords: value relevance, financial crisis, financial firms, fair value, ownership concentration, regulatory capital

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Authors: Chisakan Papapankiad

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The purpose of this research was to study the level of satisfaction from the perspective of inbound tourists who visited Bangkok, Thailand during January to March of 2014. While the independent variables included gender, age, levels of education, occupation, and income, the dependent variables were ten reasons for their visiting Thailand. A quota sampling method was utilized to get 200 respondents with 50 percent male and 50 percent female respondents. The majority of respondents were between 30-40 years old. Most were married and had an undergraduate degree. The average income of the respondents was between $30,000-50,000 per year. The findings revealed the ranking levels of satisfaction by highest mean to lowest mean as follows: Thai food and beverage, nature-beach-mountain, spa-massage-beauty, malls-shopping places, souvenir and handcraft, festivals and activities, tradition markets, museum-art-history, night entertainment, and conference-expo. In addition, the overall means is 4.19 with 0.790 SD.

Keywords: inbound tourists, satisfaction, visiting, Thailand

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Authors: Junhang Luo

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With the transformation of spatial structure and the deepening of urban development, the demand for a better life and the concerns for social resources equities of residents are increasing. As an important social resource, park plays an essential role in building environmentally sustainable cities. Thus, it is important to examine park accessibility for low-income and how it works in relative deprivation, so as to provide all residents with equitable services. Using the network and buffer methods of GIS, this paper analyzes urban park accessibility for low-income residents in Chongqing, China. And then conduct a satisfaction evaluation of park resource accessibility with low-incomes through questionnaire surveys from deprivation dimensions. Results show that the level of park accessibility in Chongqing varies significantly and the degree of relative deprivation is relatively high. Public transportation convenience improves and the number of community park increases contribute positively to improving park accessibility and alleviating the relative deprivation of public resources. Combined with the innovation pattern of social governance in China, it suggests that urban park accessibility needs to be jointly governed and optimized by multiple social resources from the government to the public, and the service efficiency needs the index system and planning standards according to local conditions to improve quality and promote equity. At the same time, building a perfect park system and complete legislation assurance system will also play a positive role in ensuring that all residents can enjoy the urban public space more fairly, especially low-income groups.

Keywords: urban park, accessibility, relative deprivation, GIS network analysis, chongqing

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Authors: M. Shah Alamgir, Jun Furuya, Shintaro Kobayashi, M. Abdus Salam

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Farmers’ environmental and economic situations are very diverse. In order to develop effective policies and technologies to improve farmers’ life standard, it is important to understand which factors induce the diversity of agricultural income. Analyze both primary and secondary data, this study applied descriptive, inferential statistical tools, and econometric techniques. From the study, farmers of Sylhet Division produce potato as one of the main cash crop with other seasonal crops. The total costs of potato production per hectare varied in different districts of Sylhet division in addition seed and hired labor cost has the biggest share of the full cost. To grasp the diversity of income, the study decomposes the variance of net income into different factors of potato production. Through this decomposition, seed cost is the important factors of income variability and it is the most important sector to induce total cost disparity for potato production. The result shows that 73% of net income variation is explained by gross income. It implies that potato yield or potato price (quality) or both vary widely among farmers. This finding is important of policymaking and technology development of agricultural farming in Bangladesh.

Keywords: agricultural income, seed, hired labor, technology development

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Authors: Wenfen Bi, Zeng Lin

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As a developing country, China is badly in need of capital and talents to develop the socialist country with Chinese characteristics. However, a large proportion of high income people with know-how technique, wealth and management experience have immigrated or plan to immigrate to other countries. Of course, this phenomenon has attracted the attention from both the government and researchers. One explanation might be that these high-income people lack confidence in China’s social development. Based on the data on W city’s comprehensive social situation surveyed by center for the social survey research of Wuhan university (CSSR) in 2014, this paper employed the structural equation model (SEM) to evaluate whether personal income affects social confidence, via the mediating effect of the sense of social equity (sense of right equity and sense of distributive equity). Bootstrap mediation analysis revealed that after controlling Demographic variables, personal income had a significant negative influence on sense of right equity and in turn, sense of rights equity can significantly positively predict social confidence. While personal income had no significant effect on sense of distributive equity, and sense of distributive equity did not significantly affect macro social confidence. Also, the direct effects of personal income on social confidence became not significant. These findings revealed the inner mechanism of the relationship between the personal income and social confidence in contemporary China, which was caused by mediating effect of sense of rights equity. That is, the higher the personal income, the lower the sense of rights equity, the lower the social confidence. Thus, the boost of the social confidence, especially for the rich, does not only depend on the equitable distribution of material wealth, but also on the right equity and making people feel rights equally in common life.

Keywords: personal income, sense of right equity, sense of social equity, social confidence

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Authors: Erez Kita, Gil Luria

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This study examines gender as a boundary condition for the relationship between the psychological variable of mindfulness and the social variable of income with regards to the use of smartphones by young drivers. The use of smartphones while driving increases the likelihood of a car accident, endangering young drivers and other road users. The study sample included 186 young drivers who were legally permitted to drive without supervision. The subjects were first asked to complete questionnaires on mindfulness and income. Next, their smartphone use while driving was monitored over a one-month period. This study is unique as it used an objective smartphone monitoring application (rather than self-reporting) to count the number of times the young participants actually touched their smartphones while driving. The findings show that gender moderates the effects of social and personal factors (i.e., income and mindfulness) on the use of smartphones while driving. The pattern of moderation was similar for both social and personal factors. For men, mindfulness and income are negatively associated with the use of smartphones while driving. These factors are not related to the use of smartphones by women drivers. Mindfulness and income can be used to identify male populations that are at risk of using smartphones while driving. Interventions that improve mindfulness can be used to reduce the use of smartphones by male drivers.

Keywords: mindfulness, using smartphones while driving, income, gender, young drivers

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Authors: Pouneh Soleimaninejadian, Chengyu Yang

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In this paper, we use data on Household Income and Expenditure survey of Statistics Centre of Iran, conducted from 2005-2014, to calculate several inequality measures and to estimate the effects of Iran’s targeted subsidy reform act on consumption and income inequality. We first calculate Gini coefficients for income and consumption in order to study the relation between the two and also the effects of subsidy reform. Results show that consumption inequality has not been always mirroring changes in income inequality. However, both Gini coefficients indicate that subsidy reform caused improvement in inequality. Then we calculate Generalized Entropy Index based on consumption and income for years before and after the Subsidy Reform Act of 2010 in order to have a closer look into the changes in internal structure of inequality after subsidy reforms. We find that the improvement in income inequality is mostly caused by the decrease in inequality of lower income individuals. At the same time consumption inequality has been decreased as a result of more equal consumption in both lower and higher income groups. Moreover, the increase in Engle coefficient after the subsidy reform shows that a bigger portion of income is allocated to consumption on food which is a sign of lower living standard in general. This increase in Engle coefficient is due to rise in inflation rate and relative increase in price of food which partially is another consequence of subsidy reform. We have conducted some experiments on effect of subsidy payments and possible effects of change on distribution pattern and amount of cash subsidy payments on income inequality. Result of the effect of cash payments on income inequality shows that it leads to a definite decrease in income inequality and had a bigger share in improvement of rural areas compared to those of urban households. We also examine the possible effect of constant payments on the increasing income inequality for years after 2011. We conclude that reduction in value of payments as a result of inflation plays an important role regardless of the fact that there may be other reasons. We finally experiment with alternative allocations of transfers while keeping the total amount of cash transfers constant or make it smaller through eliminating three higher deciles from the cash payment program, the result shows that income equality would be improved significantly.

Keywords: consumption inequality, generalized entropy index, income inequality, Irans subsidy reform

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Authors: Watcharin Sangma, Onsiri Chanmuang, Pitsanu Tongkhow

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A forecasting model for steel demand uncertainty in Thailand is proposed. It consists of trend, autocorrelation, and outliers in a hierarchical Bayesian frame work. The proposed model uses a cumulative Weibull distribution function, latent first-order autocorrelation, and binary selection, to account for trend, time-varying autocorrelation, and outliers, respectively. The Gibbs sampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is used for parameter estimation. The proposed model is applied to steel demand index data in Thailand. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean absolute error (MAE) criteria are used for model comparison. The study reveals that the proposed model is more appropriate than the exponential smoothing method.

Keywords: forecasting model, steel demand uncertainty, hierarchical Bayesian framework, exponential smoothing method

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Authors: Malkanthi S. H. P., Ishana A. S. F., Sivashankar P.

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This research was conducted to study prospective visitors’ expectation and future behavior regarding agro tourism destinations in spice gardens (spice tourism) in Kolonna. A field survey was conducted for the 40 randomly selected local and foreign visitors who have come to visit three famous tourism destinations in Kolonna namely “Maduwanwela Walawwa”, “Wawulpane Limestone cave” and “Panamure Eth gala” during three month of time period from February to April 2014. Descriptive and Chi square statistical tests were used to analyze the data. The results revealed that 98% of visitors were willing to visit the spice tourism destinations. Furthermore, visitors with urban residency, higher education level and employment opportunities revealed an association with having awareness on agro tourism. Moreover, visitors having higher age, higher level of education and higher amount of monthly income revealed an association with the willingness to visit spice tourism destinations. Nevertheless, out of eight demographic factors, three factors; gender, occupation and income had significant effect on willingness to purchase spice products from Kolonna. According to research findings it can be concluded that there are large number of perspective visitors for spice tourism and they are middle aged, educated and having significant monthly income and they are also very much interest to visit spice tourism destinations and buy spice products (high demand). Therefore, it is significantly beneficial to establish spice tourism destinations in spice gardens by successful spice cultivating farmers or owners as an extra income earning activity in Kolonna area.

Keywords: agro tourism, spice gardens, perception, prospective visitors, Sri Lanka

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Authors: Ross Guest, Bjarne Jensen

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This paper analyses a potentially new consumption dividend from lower fertility arising from imperfect labour substitution by age. A smaller proportion of young workers relative to older workers raises relative youth wages given imperfect labour substitution by age. Discounted lifetime labour income rises which provides a consumption dividend. Simulation results are reported for the four Scandinavian countries, adopting a simple overlapping generations model. Imperfect labour substitution is modelled using a CRESH functional form of an aggregate labour index. The magnitudes of this new consumption dividend from a Low fertility projection compared with a high fertility projection are found to be approximately 4 percent annually, on average over the Scandinavian countries in the very long run, but somewhat lower in the short term. There is some sensitivity to the interest rate and the degree of consumption smoothing.

Keywords: fertility, consumption, productivity, labour substitution

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Authors: B. Hamidu, A. Abdulhamid, S. Mohammed, S. Idi

Abstract:

This study examined the household expenditure pattern on animal products in Bauchi metropolis. A cross-sectional data were collected from 157 households using systematic sampling technique. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, correlation and regression models. The results reveal that the mean age, mean household size, mean monthly income and mean total expenditure on animal products were found to be 39 years, 7 persons, N28,749 and N1,740 respectively. It was also found that household monthly income, number of children and educational level of the household heads (P<0.01) significantly influence the level of household expenditure on animal products. Similarly, income was found to be the most important factor determining the proportion of total expenditure on animal products (20.91%). Income elasticity was found to be 0.66 indicating that for every 1% increase in income, expenditure on animal products would increase by 0.66%. Furthermore, beef was found to be the most preferred (54.83%) and most regularly consumed (61.84%) animal products. However, it was discovered that the major constraints affecting the consumption of animal products were low-income level of the households (29.85%), high cost of animal products (15.82%) and increase in prices of necessities (15.82%). Therefore to improve household expenditure on animal products per capita real income of the households should be improved through creation of employment opportunities. Also stabilization of market prices of animal products and other foods items of necessities through increased production are recommended.

Keywords: animal products, economics, expenditure, households

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Authors: Nikolaos Vassilas, Theocharis Tsenoglou, Djamchid Ghazanfarpour

Abstract:

In this work we explore the capability of the mean shift algorithm as a powerful preprocessing tool for improving the quality of spatial data, acquired from airborne scanners, from densely built urban areas. On one hand, high resolution image data corrupted by noise caused by lossy compression techniques are appropriately smoothed while at the same time preserving the optical edges and, on the other, low resolution LiDAR data in the form of normalized Digital Surface Map (nDSM) is upsampled through the joint mean shift algorithm. Experiments on both the edge-preserving smoothing and upsampling capabilities using synthetic RGB-z data show that the mean shift algorithm is superior to bilateral filtering as well as to other classical smoothing and upsampling algorithms. Application of the proposed methodology for 3D reconstruction of buildings of a pilot region of Athens, Greece results in a significant visual improvement of the 3D building block model.

Keywords: 3D buildings reconstruction, data fusion, data upsampling, mean shift

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