Search results for: failure detection and prediction

Authors: Yang Zhang, Jian He

Abstract:

Heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, and coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major heart diseases. Electrocardiogram (ECG) is widely used in the detection of heart diseases, but the traditional manual method for CHD prediction by analyzing ECG requires lots of professional knowledge for doctors. This paper introduces sliding window and continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to transform ECG signals into images, and then ResNet and Bi-LSTM are introduced to build the ECG feature extraction network (namely ECGNet). At last, an auxiliary system for coronary heart disease prediction was developed based on modified ResNet18 and Bi-LSTM, and the public ECG dataset of CHD from MIMIC-3 was used to train and test the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the method is 83%, and the F1-score is 83%. Compared with the available methods for CHD prediction based on ECG, such as kNN, decision tree, VGGNet, etc., this method not only improves the prediction accuracy but also could avoid the degradation phenomenon of the deep learning network.

Keywords: Bi-LSTM, CHD, ECG, ResNet, sliding window

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Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan

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Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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Authors: R. Burahee, B. Chassinat, T. de Laclos, A. Dépée, A. Sastim

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The purpose of this paper is to propose a solution to detect, predict and reconstitute rain drops in real time – during the night – using an embedded material with an infrared camera. To prevent the system from needing too high hardware resources, simple models are considered in a powerful image treatment algorithm reducing considerably calculation time in OpenCV software. Using a smart model – drops will be matched thanks to a process running through two consecutive pictures for implementing a sophisticated tracking system. With this system drops computed trajectory gives information for predicting their future location. Thanks to this technique, treatment part can be reduced. The hardware system composed by a Raspberry Pi is optimized to host efficiently this code for real time execution.

Keywords: reconstitution, prediction, detection, rain drop, real time, raspberry, infrared

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: N. H. Adenan, M. S. M. Noorani

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River flow prediction is an essential to ensure proper management of water resources can be optimally distribute water to consumers. This study presents an analysis and prediction by using nonlinear prediction method involving monthly river flow data in Tanjung Tualang from 1976 to 2006. Nonlinear prediction method involves the reconstruction of phase space and local linear approximation approach. The phase space reconstruction involves the reconstruction of one-dimensional (the observed 287 months of data) in a multidimensional phase space to reveal the dynamics of the system. Revenue of phase space reconstruction is used to predict the next 72 months. A comparison of prediction performance based on correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) have been employed to compare prediction performance for nonlinear prediction method, ARIMA and SVM. Prediction performance comparisons show the prediction results using nonlinear prediction method is better than ARIMA and SVM. Therefore, the result of this study could be used to developed an efficient water management system to optimize the allocation water resources.

Keywords: river flow, nonlinear prediction method, phase space, local linear approximation

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Authors: Bendiabdellah Azzeddine, Cherif Bilal Djamal Eddine

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The three-phase power converter voltage structure is widely used in many power applications but its failure can lead to partial or total loss of control of the phase currents and can cause serious system malfunctions or even a complete system shutdown. To ensure continuity of service in all circumstances, effective and rapid techniques of detection and location of inverter fault is to be implemented. The present paper is dedicated to open-circuit fault detection in a three-phase two-level inverter fed induction motor. For detection purpose, the proposed contribution addresses the Park’s current vectors associated to a polar coordinates calculation tool to compute the exact value of the fault angle corresponding directly to the faulty IGBT switch. The merit of the proposed contribution is illustrated by experimental results.

Keywords: diagnosis, detection, Park’s vectors, polar coordinates, open-circuit fault, inverter, IGBT switch

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Authors: Chun-Wei Huang, Jyh-Cherng Gu, Ming-Ta Yang

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Non-synchronous breakage or line failure in power systems with light or no loads can lead to core saturation in transformers or potential transformers. This can cause component and capacitance matching resulting in the formation of resonant circuits, which trigger ferroresonance. This study employed a wavelet transform for the detection of ferroresonance. Simulation results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.

Keywords: ferroresonance, wavelet transform, intelligent electronic device, transformer

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Authors: Volkmar Nolting

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Fatigue crack growth prediction has become an important topic in both engineering and non-destructive evaluation. Crack propagation is influenced by the mechanical properties of the material and is conveniently modelled by the Paris-Erdogan equation. The critical crack size and the total number of load cycles are calculated. From a Larson-Miller plot the maximum operational temperature can for a given stress level be determined so that failure does not occur within a given time interval t. The study is used to determine a reasonable inspection cycle and thus enhances operational safety and reduces costs.

Keywords: fracturemechanics, crack growth prediction, lifetime of a component, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Muhammet Baldan, Emel Timuçin

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Generally, absorption and bioavailability increase if solubility increases; therefore, it is crucial to predict them in drug discovery applications. Molecular descriptors and Molecular properties are traditionally used for the prediction of water solubility. There are various key descriptors that are used for this purpose, namely Drogan Descriptors, Morgan Descriptors, Maccs keys, etc., and each has different prediction capabilities with differentiating successes between different data sets. Another source for the prediction of solubility is structural features; they are commonly used for the prediction of solubility. However, there are little to no studies that combine three or more properties or descriptors for prediction to produce a more powerful prediction model. Unlike available models, we used a combination of those features in a random forest machine learning model for improved solubility prediction to better predict and, therefore, contribute to drug discovery systems.

Keywords: solubility, molecular descriptors, machine learning, random forest

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Authors: Konja Knüppel, Gerrit Meyer, Peter Nyhuis

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The increasing interconnectedness and complexity of production processes raise the susceptibility of production systems to failure. Therefore, the ability to respond quickly to failures is increasingly becoming a competitive factor. The research project "Sustainable failure management in manufacturing SMEs" is developing a methodology to identify failures in the production and select preventive and reactive measures in order to correct failures and to establish sustainable failure management systems.

Keywords: failure categorization, failure management, logistic performance, production optimization

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Authors: Sumaira Ashraf, Elisabete G.S. Félix, Zélia Serrasqueiro

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Traditional financial distress prediction models performed well to predict bankrupt and insolvent firms of the developed markets. Previous studies particularly focused on the predictability of financial distress, financial failure, and bankruptcy of firms. This paper contributes to the literature by extending the definition of financial distress with the inclusion of early warning signs related to quotation of face value, dividend/bonus declaration, annual general meeting, and listing fee. The study used five well-known distress prediction models to see if they have the ability to predict early warning signs of financial distress. Results showed that the predictive ability of the models varies over time and decreases specifically for the sample with early warning signs of financial distress. Furthermore, the study checked the differences in the predictive ability of the models with respect to the financial crisis. The results conclude that the predictive ability of the traditional financial distress prediction models decreases for the firms with early warning signs of financial distress and during the time of financial crisis. The study developed a new model comprising significant variables from the five models and one new variable earning response. This new model outperforms the old distress prediction models before, during and after the financial crisis. Thus, it can be used by researchers, organizations and all other concerned parties to indicate early warning signs for the emerging markets.

Keywords: financial distress, emerging market, prediction models, Z-Score, logit analysis, probit model

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Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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Authors: Roham Rafiee, Hadi Hesamsadat

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In this study, a parametric finite element modeling is developed to analyze failure modes of FRP pipes subjected to internal pressure. First-ply failure pressure and functional failure pressure was determined by a progressive damage modeling and then it is validated using experimental observations. The influence of both winding angle and fiber volume fraction is studied on the functional failure of FRP pipes and it corresponding pressure. It is observed that despite the fact that increasing fiber volume fraction will enhance the mechanical properties, it will be resulted in lower values for functional failure pressure. This shortcoming can be compensated by modifying the winding angle in angle plies of pipe wall structure.

Keywords: composite pipe, functional failure, progressive modeling, winding angle

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Authors: Sang-Woo Kim, Young-Seon Lee

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An important concern in metal forming, even at elevated temperatures, is whether a desired deformation can be accomplished without any failure of the material. A detailed understanding of the critical condition for crack initiation provides not only the workability limit of a material but also a guide-line for process design. This paper describes the utilization of ductile fracture criteria in conjunction with the finite element method (FEM) for predicting the onset of fracture in warm metal working processes of magnesium alloy sheets. Critical damage values for various ductile fracture criteria were determined from uniaxial tensile tests and were expressed as the function of strain rate and temperature. In order to find the best criterion for failure prediction, Erichsen cupping tests under isothermal conditions and FE simulations combined with ductile fracture criteria were carried out. Based on the plastic deformation histories obtained from the FE analyses of the Erichsen cupping tests and the critical damage value curves, the initiation time and location of fracture were predicted under a bi-axial tensile condition. The results were compared with experimental results and the best criterion was recommended. In addition, the proposed methodology was used to predict the onset of fracture in non-isothermal deep drawing processes using an irregular shaped blank, and the results were verified experimentally.

Keywords: magnesium, AZ31 alloy, ductile fracture, FEM, sheet forming, Erichsen cupping test

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

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Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: central machine learning, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local machine learning, wireless sensor networks, WSN

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Authors: Yong Zhao, Jian He, Cheng Zhang

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Cardiovascular diseases caused by hypertension are extremely threatening to human health, and early diagnosis of hypertension can save a large number of lives. Traditional hypertension detection methods require special equipment and are difficult to detect continuous blood pressure changes. In this regard, this paper first analyzes the principle of heart rate variability (HRV) and introduces sliding window and power spectral density (PSD) to analyze the time domain features and frequency domain features of HRV, and secondly, designs an HRV-based hypertension prediction network by combining Resnet, attention mechanism, and multilayer perceptron, which extracts the frequency domain through the improved ResNet18 features through a modified ResNet18, its fusion with time-domain features through an attention mechanism, and the auxiliary prediction of hypertension through a multilayer perceptron. Finally, the network was trained and tested using the publicly available SHAREE dataset on PhysioNet, and the test results showed that this network achieved 92.06% prediction accuracy for hypertension and outperformed K Near Neighbor(KNN), Bayes, Logistic, and traditional Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) models in prediction performance.

Keywords: feature extraction, heart rate variability, hypertension, residual networks

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Authors: Muhammad Saqlain, Nazar Abbas Saqib, Muazzam A. Khan

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Heart Failure (HF) has become the major health problem in our society. The prevalence of HF has increased as the patient’s ages and it is the major cause of the high mortality rate in adults. A successful identification and progression of HF can be helpful to reduce the individual and social burden from this syndrome. In this study, we use a real data set of cardiac patients to propose a classification model for the identification and progression of HF. The data set has divided into three age groups, namely young, adult, and old and then each age group have further classified into four classes according to patient’s current physical condition. Contemporary Data Mining classification algorithms have been applied to each individual class of every age group to identify the HF. Decision Tree (DT) gives the highest accuracy of 90% and outperform all other algorithms. Our model accurately diagnoses different stages of HF for each age group and it can be very useful for the early prediction of HF.

Keywords: decision tree, heart failure, data mining, classification model

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Authors: Emre Ozaslan, Bulent Acar, Mehmet Ali Guler

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Unidirectional composites are very popular structural materials used in aerospace, marine, energy and automotive industries thanks to their superior material properties. However, the mechanical behavior of composite materials is more complicated than isotropic materials because of their anisotropic nature. Also, a stress concentration availability on the structure, like a hole, makes the problem further complicated. Therefore, enormous number of tests require to understand the mechanical behavior and strength of composites which contain stress concentration. Accurate finite element analysis and analytical models enable to understand mechanical behavior and predict the strength of composites without enormous number of tests which cost serious time and money. In this study, unidirectional Carbon/Epoxy composite specimens with central circular hole were investigated in terms of stress concentration factor and strength prediction. The composite specimens which had different specimen wide (W) to hole diameter (D) ratio were tested to investigate the effect of hole size on the stress concentration and strength. Also, specimens which had same specimen wide to hole diameter ratio, but varied sizes were tested to investigate the size effect. Finite element analysis was performed to determine stress concentration factor for all specimen configurations. For quasi-isotropic laminate, it was found that the stress concentration factor increased approximately %15 with decreasing of W/D ratio from 6 to 3. Point stress criteria (PSC), inherent flaw method and progressive failure analysis were compared in terms of predicting the strength of specimens. All methods could predict the strength of specimens with maximum %8 error. PSC was better than other methods for high values of W/D ratio, however, inherent flaw method was successful for low values of W/D. Also, it is seen that increasing by 4 times of the W/D ratio rises the failure strength of composite specimen as %62.4. For constant W/D ratio specimens, all the strength prediction methods were more successful for smaller size specimens than larger ones. Increasing the specimen width and hole diameter together by 2 times reduces the specimen failure strength as %13.2.

Keywords: failure, strength, stress concentration, unidirectional composites

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Authors: Jae-Jeong Kim, Ki-Ro Kim, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In this paper, we propose an efficient signal detector that switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme is proposed for MIMO-OFDM system. The proposed detection scheme calculates the threshold by 1-norm condition number and then switches M parameter of QRD-M detection scheme according to channel information. If channel condition is bad, the parameter M is set to high value to increase the accuracy of detection. If channel condition is good, the parameter M is set to low value to reduce complexity of detection. Therefore, the proposed detection scheme has better trade off between BER performance and complexity than the conventional detection scheme. The simulation result shows that the complexity of proposed detection scheme is lower than QRD-M detection scheme with similar BER performance.

Keywords: MIMO-OFDM, QRD-M, channel condition, BER

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Authors: Jae-Hyun Ro, Yong-Jun Kim, Chang-Bin Ha, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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In multiple input multiple output-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) systems, many detection schemes have been developed to improve the error performance and to reduce the complexity. Maximum likelihood (ML) detection has optimal error performance but it has very high complexity. Thus, this paper proposes reduced complexity of ML detection combined with decision feedback equalizer (DFE). The error performance of the proposed detection scheme is higher than the conventional DFE. But the complexity of the proposed scheme is lower than the conventional ML detection.

Keywords: detection, DFE, MIMO-OFDM, ML

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Authors: S. W. Liu, J. H. Lv, W. Z. Wang

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In recent years, the failure accidents in petrochemical industry have been frequent, and have posed great security problems in personnel and property. The improvement of petrochemical safety is highly requested in order to prevent re-occurrence of severe accident. This study focuses on surveying the failure cases occurred in petrochemical field, which were extracted from journals of engineering failure, including engineering failure analysis and case studies in engineering failure analysis. The relation of failure mode, failure mechanism, type of components, and type of materials was analyzed in this study. And the analytical results showed that failures occurred more frequently in vessels and piping among the petrochemical equipment. Moreover, equipment made of carbon steel and stainless steel accounts for the majority of failures compared to other materials. This may be related to the application of the equipment and the performance of the material. In addition, corrosion failures were the largest in number of occurrence in the failure of petrochemical equipment, in which stress corrosion cracking accounts for a large proportion. This may have a lot to do with the service environment of the petrochemical equipment. Therefore, it can be concluded that the corrosion prevention of petrochemical equipment is particularly important.

Keywords: cases analysis, corrosion, failure, petrochemical industry

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Authors: V. V. Singh

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We have studied the reliability measures of a system, which consists of two subsystems i.e. subsystem-1 and subsystem-2 in series configuration under different types of failure. The subsystem-1 has three identical units in parallel configuration and operating under 2-out-of-3: G policy and connected to subsystem-2 in series configuration. Each subsystem has different types of failure and repair rates. An important cause for failure of system is unsuitability of the environmental conditions, like overheating, weather conditions, heavy rainfall, storm etc. The environmental failure is taken into account in the proposed repairable system. Supplementary variable technique is used to study of system and some traditional measures such as; availability, reliability, MTTF and profit function are obtained for different values of parameters. In the proposed model, some particular cases of failure rates are explicitly studied.

Keywords: environmental failure, human failure, availability, MTTF, reliability, profit analysis, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula

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Authors: Altoumi Alndalusi

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High-temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) failure is the common phenomena at elevated temperature in hydrogen environment in oil and gas field. The failure occurred once after four years at the internal surface of Platforming elbow. Both visual and microscopic examinations revealed that the failure was initiated due to blistering forming followed by large cracking at the inner surface. Crack morphology showed that the crack depth was about 50% of material wall thickness and its behavior generally was intergranular. This study concluded that the main reason led to failure due to incorrect material selection comparing to the platforming conditions.

Keywords: decarburization, failure, heat affected zone, morphology, partial pressure, plate form

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Authors: Abdelmounaim Zanaz, Sylvie Yotte, Fazia Fouchal, Alaa Chateauneuf

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This paper presents a methodology for probabilistic assessment of bearing capacity and prediction of failure mechanism of masonry vaults at the ultimate state with consideration of the natural variability of Young’s modulus of stones. First, the computation model is explained. The failure mode is the most reported mode, i.e. the four-hinge mechanism. Based on this assumption, the study of a vault composed of 16 segments is presented. The Young’s modulus of the segments is considered as random variable defined by a mean value and a coefficient of variation CV. A relationship linking the vault bearing capacity to the modulus variation of voussoirs is proposed. The failure mechanisms, in addition to that observed in the deterministic case, are identified for each CV value as well as their probability of occurrence. The results show that the mechanism observed in the deterministic case has decreasing probability of occurrence in terms of CV, while the number of other mechanisms and their probability of occurrence increase with the coefficient of variation of Young’s modulus. This means that if a significant change in the Young modulus of the segments is proven, taken it into account in computations becomes mandatory, both for determining the vault bearing capacity and for predicting its failure mechanism.

Keywords: masonry, mechanism, probability, variability, vault

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Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu

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An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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Authors: Aydin Azizi, Ahmed Al. Azizi

Abstract:

Mechanical seals are essential components in centrifugal pumps since they help in controlling leaking out of the liquid that is pumped under pressure. Unlike the common types of packaging, mechanical seals are highly efficient and they reduce leakage by a great extent. However, all multiphase mechanical seals leak and they are subject to failure. Some of the factors that have been recognized to their failure include excessive heating, open seal faces, as well as environment related factors that trigger failure of the materials used to manufacture seals. The proposed research study will explore the failure of multiphase mechanical seal in centrifugal pumps. The objective of the study includes how to reduce the failure in multiphase mechanical seals and to make them more efficient.

Keywords: mechanical seals, centrifugal pumps, multi phase failure, excessive heating

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Authors: Lormaine Anne A. Branzuela, Elysa V. Largo, Monet Concepcion M. Detras, Neil C. Concibido

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The electricity demand is still increasing, and currently, the Philippine government is investigating the feasibility of operating the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (BNPP) to address the country’s energy problem. However, the lack of process safety studies on BNPP focused on the effects of hazardous substances on the integrity of the structure, equipment, and other components, have made the plant operationalization questionable to the public. The three major nuclear power plant incidents – TMI-2, Chernobyl, and Fukushima – have made many people hesitant to include nuclear energy in the energy matrix. This study focused on the safety evaluation of possible operations of a nuclear power plant installed with a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR), which is similar to BNPP. Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is one of the Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) techniques used for the identification of equipment failure modes and minimizing its consequences. Using the FMEA technique, this study was able to recognize 116 different failure modes in total. Upon computation and ranking of the risk priority number (RPN) and criticality rating (CR), it showed that failure of the reactor coolant pump due to earthquakes is the most critical failure mode. This hazard scenario could lead to a nuclear meltdown and radioactive release, as identified by the FMEA team. Safeguards and recommended risk reduction strategies to lower the RPN and CR were identified such that the effects are minimized, the likelihood of occurrence is reduced, and failure detection is improved.

Keywords: PHA, FMEA, nuclear power plant, bataan nuclear power plant

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Authors: Ehsan Mehryaar, Seyed Armin Motahari Tabari

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Without a doubt, soil shear strength is the most important property of the soil. The majority of fatal and catastrophic geological accidents are related to shear strength failure of the soil. Therefore, its prediction is a matter of high importance. However, acquiring the shear strength is usually a cumbersome task that might need complicated laboratory testing. Therefore, prediction of it based on common and easy to get soil properties can simplify the projects substantially. In this paper, A hybrid model based on the classification and regression tree algorithm and logistic regression is proposed where each leaf of the tree is an independent regression model. A database of 189 points for clay soil, including Moisture content, liquid limit, plastic limit, clay content, and shear strength, is collected. The performance of the developed model compared to the existing models and equations using root mean squared error and coefficient of correlation.

Keywords: model tree, CART, logistic regression, soil shear strength

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Authors: Said Boukais, Ali Kezmane, Kahil Amar, Mohand Hamizi, Hannachi Neceur Eddine

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This paper presents an analytical study on the behavior of rectangular reinforced concrete walls with an aspect ratio between one and tow. Several experiments on such walls have been selected to be studied. Database from various experiments were collected and nominal wall strengths have been calculated using formulas, such as those of the ACI (American), NZS (New Zealand), Mexican (NTCC), and Wood equation for shear and strain compatibility analysis for flexure. Subsequently, nominal ultimate wall strengths from the formulas were compared with the ultimate wall strengths from the database. These formulas vary substantially in functional form and do not account for all variables that affect the response of walls. There is substantial scatter in the predicted values of ultimate strength. New semi empirical equation are developed using data from tests of 46 walls with the objective of improving the prediction of ultimate strength of walls with the most possible accuracy and for all failure modes.

Keywords: prediction, ultimate strength, reinforced concrete walls, walls, rectangular walls

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Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie

Abstract:

In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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Authors: Paul Han, Jun-Geol Baek

Abstract:

In the flat panel display industry, the scheduler and dispatching system to meet production target quantities and the deadline of production are the major production management system which controls each facility production order and distribution of WIP (Work in Process). In dispatching system, delivery time is a key factor for the time when a lot can be supplied to the facility. In this paper, we use survival analysis methods to identify main factors and a forecasting model of delivery time. Of survival analysis techniques to select important explanatory variables, the cox proportional hazard model is used to. To make a prediction model, the Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model was used. Performance comparisons were conducted with two other models, which are the technical statistics model based on transfer history and the linear regression model using same explanatory variables with AFT model. As a result, the Mean Square Error (MSE) criteria, the AFT model decreased by 33.8% compared to the existing prediction model, decreased by 5.3% compared to the linear regression model. This survival analysis approach is applicable to implementing a delivery time estimator in display manufacturing. And it can contribute to improve the productivity and reliability of production management system.

Keywords: delivery time, survival analysis, Cox PH model, accelerated failure time model

Procedia PDF Downloads 510