Search results for: calorically imperfect gas
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 63

Search results for: calorically imperfect gas

33 Semantics of the Word “Nas” in the Verse 24 of Surah Al-Baqarah Based on Izutsus’ Semantic Field Theory

Authors: Seyedeh Khadijeh. Mirbazel, Masoumeh Arjmandi

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Semantics is a linguistic approach and a scientific stream, and like all scientific streams, it is dynamic. The study of meaning is carried out in the broad semantic collections of words that form the discourse. In other words, meaning is not something that can be found in a word; rather, the formation of meaning is a process that takes place in a discourse as a whole. One of the contemporary semantic theories is Izutsu's Semantic Field Theory. According to this theory, the discovery of meaning depends on the function of words and takes place within the context of language. The purpose of this research is to identify the meaning of the word "Nas" in the discourse of verse 24 of Surah Al-Baqarah, which introduces "Nas" as the firewood of hell, but the translators have translated it as "people". The present research has investigated the semantic structure of the word "Nas" using the aforementioned theory through the descriptive-analytical method. In the process of investigation, by matching the semantic fields of the Quranic word "Nas", this research came to the conclusion that "Nas" implies those persons who have forgotten God and His covenant in believing in His Oneness. For this reason, God called them "Nas (the forgetful)" - the imperfect participle of the noun /næsiwoɔn/ in single trinity of Arabic language, which means “to forget”. Therefore, the intended meaning of "Nas" in the verses that have the word "Nas" is not equivalent to "People" which is a general noun.

Keywords: Nas, people, semantics, semantic field theory.

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32 Printing Imperfections: Development of Buckling Patterns to Improve Strength of 3D Printed Steel Plated Elements

Authors: Ben Chater, Jingbang Pan, Mark Evernden, Jie Wang

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Traditional structural steel manufacturing routes normally produce prismatic members with flat plate elements. In these members, plate instability in the lowest buckling mode often dominates failure. It is proposed in the current study to use a new technology of metal 3D printing to print steel-plated elements with predefined imperfection patterns that can lead to higher modes of failure with increased buckling resistances. To this end, a numerical modeling program is carried out to explore various combinations of predefined buckling waves with different amplitudes in stainless steel square hollow section stub columns. Their stiffness, strength, and material consumption against the traditional structural steel members with the same nominal dimensions are assessed. It is found that depending on the slenderness of the plate elements; it is possible for an ‘imperfect’ steel member to achieve up to a 30% increase in strength with just a 3% increase in the material consumption. The obtained results shed some light on the significant potential of the new metal 3D printing technology in achieving unprecedented material efficiency and economical design in the future steel construction industry.

Keywords: 3D printing, additive manufacturing, buckling resistance, steel plate buckling, structural optimisation

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31 Reconfigurable Consensus Achievement of Multi Agent Systems Subject to Actuator Faults in a Leaderless Architecture

Authors: F. Amirarfaei, K. Khorasani

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In this paper, reconfigurable consensus achievement of a team of agents with marginally stable linear dynamics and single input channel has been considered. The control algorithm is based on a first order linear protocol. After occurrence of a LOE fault in one of the actuators, using the imperfect information of the effectiveness of the actuators from fault detection and identification module, the control gain is redesigned in a way to still reach consensus. The idea is based on the modeling of change in effectiveness as change of Laplacian matrix. Then as special cases of this class of systems, a team of single integrators as well as double integrators are considered and their behavior subject to a LOE fault is considered. The well-known relative measurements consensus protocol is applied to a leaderless team of single integrator as well as double integrator systems, and Gersgorin disk theorem is employed to determine whether fault occurrence has an effect on system stability and team consensus achievement or not. The analyses show that loss of effectiveness fault in actuator(s) of integrator systems affects neither system stability nor consensus achievement.

Keywords: multi-agent system, actuator fault, stability analysis, consensus achievement

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30 The Dynamics of Algeria’s Natural Gas Exports to Europe: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Approach with Breakpoints

Authors: Hicham Benamirouche, Oum Elkheir Moussi

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The purpose of the study is to examine the dynamics of Algeria’s natural gas exports through the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach with break points. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1967 to 2015. Based on imperfect substitution specification, the ARDL approach reveals a long-run equilibrium relationship between Algeria’s Natural gas exports and their determinant factors (Algeria’s gas reserves, Domestic gas consumption, Europe’s GDP per capita, relative prices, the European gas production and the market share of competitors). All the long-run elasticities estimated are statistically significant with a large impact of domestic factors, which constitute the supply constraints. In short term, the elasticities are statistically significant, and almost comparable to those of the long term. Furthermore, the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is less than one year because of the little flexibility of the long term export contracts. Two break points have been estimated when we employ the domestic gas consumption as a break variable; 1984 and 2010, which reflect the arbitration policy between the domestic gas market and gas exports.

Keywords: natural gas exports, elasticity, ARDL bounds testing, break points, Algeria

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29 A PROMETHEE-BELIEF Approach for Multi-Criteria Decision Making Problems with Incomplete Information

Authors: H. Moalla, A. Frikha

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Multi-criteria decision aid methods consider decision problems where numerous alternatives are evaluated on several criteria. These methods are used to deal with perfect information. However, in practice, it is obvious that this information requirement is too much strict. In fact, the imperfect data provided by more or less reliable decision makers usually affect decision results since any decision is closely linked to the quality and availability of information. In this paper, a PROMETHEE-BELIEF approach is proposed to help multi-criteria decisions based on incomplete information. This approach solves problems with incomplete decision matrix and unknown weights within PROMETHEE method. On the base of belief function theory, our approach first determines the distributions of belief masses based on PROMETHEE’s net flows and then calculates weights. Subsequently, it aggregates the distribution masses associated to each criterion using Murphy’s modified combination rule in order to infer a global belief structure. The final action ranking is obtained via pignistic probability transformation. A case study of real-world application concerning the location of a waste treatment center from healthcare activities with infectious risk in the center of Tunisia is studied to illustrate the detailed process of the BELIEF-PROMETHEE approach.

Keywords: belief function theory, incomplete information, multiple criteria analysis, PROMETHEE method

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28 Cost Benefit Analysis and Adjustments of Corporate Social Responsibility in the Airline Industry

Authors: Roman Asatryan

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The decision-making processes in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) among firms in general and airlines in particular have to do with the benefits that accrue through those investments. The crux of the matter is not whether to invest in CSR or not, but rather, how firms can quantify the benefits derived from such investments. This paper analyzes the cost benefit adjustment strategies for firms in the airline industry in their CSR strategy adoption and implementation. The adjustment strategies identified will enable firms in the airline industry to have a basis for determining the worth of such CSR investments. This paper discusses the cost and benefit analysis model in order to understand the ways airlines can reduce costs and increase returns on CSR, or balance the cost and benefits. The analysis from this study points to the fact that economic concepts especially the CBA are useful, though they are not without challenges. The challenge arises when it is problematic to express the real impact of the externality in monetary terms. The use of rational maximization of the gains may seem to be a rather optimistic goal mainly because of environmental variability, perceptual uncertainty, and imperfect knowledge about the potential externality. This paper concludes that the CBA model gives a basic understanding of the motivations for investing in intangible assets like CSR. Consequently, it sets the tone for formulating relevant hypothesis in empirical studies in investment in CSR in particular and other intangible assets in business operations.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, corporate social responsibility, airline industry

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27 Computational Code for Solving the Navier-Stokes Equations on Unstructured Meshes Applied to the Leading Edge of the Brazilian Hypersonic Scramjet 14-X

Authors: Jayme R. T. Silva, Paulo G. P. Toro, Angelo Passaro, Giannino P. Camillo, Antonio C. Oliveira

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An in-house C++ code has been developed, at the Prof. Henry T. Nagamatsu Laboratory of Aerothermodynamics and Hypersonics from the Institute of Advanced Studies (Brazil), to estimate the aerothermodynamic properties around the Hypersonic Vehicle Integrated to the Scramjet. In the future, this code will be applied to the design of the Brazilian Scramjet Technological Demonstrator 14-X B. The first step towards accomplishing this objective, is to apply the in-house C++ code at the leading edge of a flat plate, simulating the leading edge of the 14-X Hypersonic Vehicle, making possible the wave phenomena of oblique shock and boundary layer to be analyzed. The development of modern hypersonic space vehicles requires knowledge regarding the characteristics of hypersonic flows in the vicinity of a leading edge of lifting surfaces. The strong interaction between a shock wave and a boundary layer, in a high supersonic Mach number 4 viscous flow, close to the leading edge of the plate, considering no slip condition, is numerically investigated. The small slip region is neglecting. The study consists of solving the fluid flow equations for unstructured meshes applying the SIMPLE algorithm for Finite Volume Method. Unstructured meshes are generated by the in-house software ‘Modeler’ that was developed at Virtual’s Engineering Laboratory from the Institute of Advanced Studies, initially developed for Finite Element problems and, in this work, adapted to the resolution of the Navier-Stokes equations based on the SIMPLE pressure-correction scheme for all-speed flows, Finite Volume Method based. The in-house C++ code is based on the two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations considering non-steady flow, with nobody forces, no volumetric heating, and no mass diffusion. Air is considered as calorically perfect gas, with constant Prandtl number and Sutherland's law for the viscosity. Solutions of the flat plate problem for Mach number 4 include pressure, temperature, density and velocity profiles as well as 2-D contours. Also, the boundary layer thickness, boundary conditions, and mesh configurations are presented. The same problem has been solved by the academic license of the software Ansys Fluent and for another C++ in-house code, which solves the fluid flow equations in structured meshes, applying the MacCormack method for Finite Difference Method, and the results will be compared.

Keywords: boundary-layer, scramjet, simple algorithm, shock wave

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26 Factor Study Affecting Visual Awareness on Dynamic Object Monitoring

Authors: Terry Liang Khin Teo, Sun Woh Lye, Kai Lun Brendon Goh

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As applied to dynamic monitoring situations, the prevailing approach to situation awareness (SA) assumes that the relevant areas of interest (AOI) be perceived before that information can be processed further to affect decision-making and, thereafter, action. It is not entirely clear whether this is the case. This study seeks to investigate the monitoring of dynamic objects through matching eye fixations with the relevant AOIs in boundary-crossing scenarios. By this definition, a match is where a fixation is registered on the AOI. While many factors may affect monitoring characteristics, traffic simulations were designed in this study to explore two factors, namely: the number of inbounds/outbound traffic transfers and the number of entry and/or exit points in a radar monitoring sector. These two factors were graded into five levels of difficulty ranging from low to high traffic flow numbers. Combined permutation in terms of levels of difficulty of these two factors yielded a total of thirty scenarios. Through this, results showed that changes in the traffic flow numbers on transfer resulted in greater variations having match limits ranging from 29%-100%, as compared to the number of sector entry/exit points of range limit from 80%-100%. The subsequent analysis is able to determine the type and combination of traffic scenarios where imperfect matching is likely to occur.

Keywords: air traffic simulation, eye-tracking, visual monitoring, focus attention

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25 Asymmetrical Informative Estimation for Macroeconomic Model: Special Case in the Tourism Sector of Thailand

Authors: Chukiat Chaiboonsri, Satawat Wannapan

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This paper used an asymmetric informative concept to apply in the macroeconomic model estimation of the tourism sector in Thailand. The variables used to statistically analyze are Thailand international and domestic tourism revenues, the expenditures of foreign and domestic tourists, service investments by private sectors, service investments by the government of Thailand, Thailand service imports and exports, and net service income transfers. All of data is a time-series index which was observed between 2002 and 2015. Empirically, the tourism multiplier and accelerator were estimated by two statistical approaches. The first was the result of the Generalized Method of Moments model (GMM) based on the assumption which the tourism market in Thailand had perfect information (Symmetrical data). The second was the result of the Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach (MEboot) based on the process that attempted to deal with imperfect information and reduced uncertainty in data observations (Asymmetrical data). In addition, the tourism leakages were investigated by a simple model based on the injections and leakages concept. The empirical findings represented the parameters computed from the MEboot approach which is different from the GMM method. However, both of the MEboot estimation and GMM model suggests that Thailand’s tourism sectors are in a period capable of stimulating the economy.

Keywords: TThailand tourism, Maximum Entropy Bootstrapping approach, macroeconomic model, asymmetric information

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24 Influence of Annealing on the Mechanical αc-Relaxation of Isotactic-Polypropylene: A Study from the Intermediate Phase Perspective

Authors: Baobao Chang, Konrad Schneider, Vogel Roland, Gert Heinrich

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In this work, the influence of annealing on the mechanical αc-relaxation behavior of isotactic polypropylene (iPP) was investigated. The results suggest that the mechanical αc-relaxation behavior depends strongly on the confinement force on the polymer chains in the intermediate phase and the thickness of the intermediate phase. After quenching at 10°C, abundant crystallites with a wide size distribution are formed. The polymer chains in the intermediate phase are constrained by the crystallites, giving rise to one broad αc-relaxation peak. With an annealing temperature between 60°C~105°C, imperfect lamellae melting releases part of the constraint force, which reduces the conformational ordering of the polymer chains neighboring the amorphous phase. Consequently, two separate αc-relaxation peaks could be observed which are labeled as αc1-relaxation and αc2-relaxation. αc1-relaxation and αc2-relaxation describe the relaxation behavior of polymer chains in the region close to the amorphous phase and the crystalline phase, respectively. Both relaxation peaks shift to a higher temperature as annealing temperature increases. With an annealing temperature higher than 105°C, the new crystalline phase is formed in the intermediate phase, which enhances the constraint force on the polymer chains. αc1-relaxation peak is broadened obviously and its position shifts to a higher temperature as annealing temperature increases. Moreover, αc2-relaxation is undetectable because that the polymer chains in the region between the initial crystalline phase and the newly formed crystalline phase are strongly confined.

Keywords: annealing, αc-relaxation, isotactic-polypropylene, intermediate phase

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23 Public Service Ethics in Public Administration: An Empirical Investigation

Authors: Kalsoom Sumra

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The increasing concern of public sector reforms brings new challenges to public service ethics in developing countries not only at central level but also at local level. This paper aims to identify perceptions on public service ethics of public officials and examines more generally the understanding of public servants in Pakistan towards public service ethics in local public organizations. The study uses an independently administered structured questionnaire to collect data to know the extent of the recognition of public service ethics in local organizations. A total of 150 completed questionnaires are analyzed received from public servants working at the local level in Pakistan. The analysis explores how traditional, social patterns and cultural ethics can provide us with a rounded picture of the main antecedents, moderators of public service ethics in Pakistan. Moreover, the findings of this study contribute in association of public service ethics which are crucial in ongoing political and administrative culture of Pakistan, the most crucial core for public organizational ethical climate. This study also has numerous implications for local public administration and it highlights the importance of expanding research agenda on public service ethics in developing settings with challenging institutional contexts with imperfect training and operating environments. This study may well be particularly important for practice of public service ethics in developing countries in public administration. To the best of author’s knowledge, this study is the first of its kind to provide an initial step in practical implications to emphasize relevant public service ethics in public administration in developing transparent and accountable organization.

Keywords: public service ethics, accountability and transparency, public service reforms, public administration, organizational ethical climate

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22 Variance-Aware Routing and Authentication Scheme for Harvesting Data in Cloud-Centric Wireless Sensor Networks

Authors: Olakanmi Oladayo Olufemi, Bamifewe Olusegun James, Badmus Yaya Opeyemi, Adegoke Kayode

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The wireless sensor network (WSN) has made a significant contribution to the emergence of various intelligent services or cloud-based applications. Most of the time, these data are stored on a cloud platform for efficient management and sharing among different services or users. However, the sensitivity of the data makes them prone to various confidentiality and performance-related attacks during and after harvesting. Various security schemes have been developed to ensure the integrity and confidentiality of the WSNs' data. However, their specificity towards particular attacks and the resource constraint and heterogeneity of WSNs make most of these schemes imperfect. In this paper, we propose a secure variance-aware routing and authentication scheme with two-tier verification to collect, share, and manage WSN data. The scheme is capable of classifying WSN into different subnets, detecting any attempt of wormhole and black hole attack during harvesting, and enforcing access control on the harvested data stored in the cloud. The results of the analysis showed that the proposed scheme has more security functionalities than other related schemes, solves most of the WSNs and cloud security issues, prevents wormhole and black hole attacks, identifies the attackers during data harvesting, and enforces access control on the harvested data stored in the cloud at low computational, storage, and communication overheads.

Keywords: data block, heterogeneous IoT network, data harvesting, wormhole attack, blackhole attack access control

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21 Behavior of Epoxy Insulator with Surface Defect under HVDC Stress

Authors: Qingying Liu, S. Liu, L. Hao, B. Zhang, J. D. Yan

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HVDC technology is becoming increasingly popular due to its simplicity in topology and less power loss over long distance of power transmission, in comparison with HVAC technology. However, the dielectric behavior of insulators in the long term under HVDC stress is completely different from that under HVAC stress as a result of charge accumulation in a constant electric field. Insulators used in practical systems are never perfect in their structural conditions. Over time shallow cracks may develop on their surface. The presence of defects can lead to drastic change in their dielectric behaviour and thus increase the probability of surface flashover. In this contribution, experimental investigations have been carried out on the charge accumulation phenomenon on the surface of a rod insulator made of epoxy that is placed between two disk shaped electrodes at different voltage levels and in different gases (SF6, CO2 and N2). Many results obtained, such as, the two-dimensional electrostatic potential distribution along the insulator surface after the removal of the power source following a pre-defined period of application. The probe has been carefully calibrated before each test. Results show that surface charge distribution near the two disk shaped electrodes is not uniform in the circumferential direction, possibly due to the imperfect electrical connections between the embeded conductor in the insulator and the disk shaped electrodes. The axial length of this non-uniform region is experimentally determined, which provides useful information for shielding design. A charge transport model is also used to explain the formation of the long term electrostatic potential distribution under a constant applied voltage.

Keywords: HVDC, power systems, dielectric behavior, insulation, charge accumulation

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20 Infrastructure Change Monitoring Using Multitemporal Multispectral Satellite Images

Authors: U. Datta

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The main objective of this study is to find a suitable approach to monitor the land infrastructure growth over a period of time using multispectral satellite images. Bi-temporal change detection method is unable to indicate the continuous change occurring over a long period of time. To achieve this objective, the approach used here estimates a statistical model from series of multispectral image data over a long period of time, assuming there is no considerable change during that time period and then compare it with the multispectral image data obtained at a later time. The change is estimated pixel-wise. Statistical composite hypothesis technique is used for estimating pixel based change detection in a defined region. The generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) is used to detect the changed pixel from probabilistic estimated model of the corresponding pixel. The changed pixel is detected assuming that the images have been co-registered prior to estimation. To minimize error due to co-registration, 8-neighborhood pixels around the pixel under test are also considered. The multispectral images from Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 from 2015 to 2018 are used for this purpose. There are different challenges in this method. First and foremost challenge is to get quite a large number of datasets for multivariate distribution modelling. A large number of images are always discarded due to cloud coverage. Due to imperfect modelling there will be high probability of false alarm. Overall conclusion that can be drawn from this work is that the probabilistic method described in this paper has given some promising results, which need to be pursued further.

Keywords: co-registration, GLRT, infrastructure growth, multispectral, multitemporal, pixel-based change detection

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19 Challenges of Sustainable Development of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Georgia

Authors: Kharaishvili Eteri

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The article highlights the importance of small and medium-sized enterprises in achieving the goals of sustainable development of the economy and increasing the well-being of the population. The opinion is put forward that it is necessary to adapt the activities of small and medium-sized firms in Georgia to sustainable business models. Therefore, it is important to identify the challenges that will ensure compliance with the goals and requirements of sustainable development of small and mediumsized enterprises. Objectives. The goal of the study is to reveal the challenges of sustainable development in small and medium-sized enterprises in Georgia and to develop recommendations for strategic development opportunities. Methodologies The challenges of sustainable development of small and medium-sized enterprises are investigated with the following methodology: bibliographic research of scientific works and reports of organizations is carried out; Based on the grouping of sustainable development goals, the performance indicators of these goals are studied; Differences with respect to the corresponding indicators of European countries are determined by the comparison method; The matrix scheme establishes the conditions and tools for sustainable development; Challenges of sustainable development are identified by factor analysis. Contributions Trends in the sustainable development of small and medium-sized enterprises are studied from the point of view of economic, social and environmental factors; To ensure sustainability, the conditions and tools for sustainable development are established (certified supply chains and global markets, allocation of financial resources necessary for sustainable development, proper public procurement, highly qualified workforce, etc.); Several main challenges have been identified in the sustainable development of small and medium-sized enterprises, including: limited internal resources; Institutional factors, especially vague and imperfect regulations, bureaucracy; low level of investments; Low level of qualification of human capital and others.

Keywords: small and medium-sized enterprises, sustainable development, conditions of sustainable development, strategic directions of sustainable development.

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18 A Comparative Approach to the Concept of Incarnation of God in Hinduism and Christianity

Authors: Cemil Kutluturk

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This is a comparative study of the incarnation of God according to Hinduism and Christianity. After dealing with their basic ideas on the concept of the incarnation of God, the main similarities and differences between each other will be examined by quoting references from their sacred texts. In Hinduism, the term avatara is used in order to indicate the concept of the incarnation of God. The word avatara is derived from ava (down) and tri (to cross, to save, attain). Thus avatara means to come down or to descend. Although an avatara is commonly considered as an appearance of any deity on earth, the term refers particularly to descents of Vishnu. According to Hinduism, God becomes an avatara in every age and entering into diverse wombs for the sake of establishing righteousness. On the Christian side, the word incarnation means enfleshment. In Christianity, it is believed that the Logos or Word, the Second Person of Trinity, presumed human reality. Incarnation refers both to the act of God becoming a human being and to the result of his action, namely the permanent union of the divine and human natures in the one Person of the Word. When the doctrines of incarnation and avatara are compared some similarities and differences can be found between each other. The basic similarity is that both doctrines are not bound by the laws of nature as human beings are. They reveal God’s personal love and concern, and emphasize loving devotion. Their entry into the world is generally accompanied by extraordinary signs. In both cases, the descent of God allows for human beings to ascend to God. On the other hand, there are some distinctions between two religious traditions. For instance, according to Hinduism there are many and repeated avataras, while Christ comes only once. Indeed, this is related to the respective cyclic and linear worldviews of the two religions. Another difference is that in Hinduism avataras are real and perfect, while in Christianity Christ is also real, yet imperfect; that is, he has human imperfections, except sin. While Christ has never been thought of as a partial incarnation, in Hinduism there are some partial and full avataras. The other difference is that while the purpose of Christ is primarily ultimate salvation, not every avatara grants ultimate liberation, some of them come only to save a devotee from a specific predicament.

Keywords: Avatara, Christianity, Hinduism, incarnation

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17 Discussion on the Impact and Improvement Strategy of Bike Sharing on Urban Space

Authors: Bingying Liu, Dandong Ge, Xinlan Zhang, Haoyang Liang

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Over the past two years, a new generation of No-Pile Bike sharing, represented by the Ofo, Mobike and HelloBike, has sprung up in various cities in China, and spread rapidly in countries such as Britain, Japan, the United States and Singapore. As a new green public transportation mode, bike sharing can bring a series of benefits to urban space. At first, this paper analyzes the specific impact of bike sharing on urban space in China. Based on the market research and data analyzing, it is found that bike sharing can improve the quality of urban space in three aspects: expanding the radius of public transportation service, filling service blind spots, alleviating urban traffic congestion, and enhancing the vitality of urban space. On the other hand, due to the immature market and the imperfect system, bike sharing has gradually revealed some difficulties, such as parking chaos, malicious damage, safety problems, imbalance between supply and demand, and so on. Then the paper investigates the characteristics of shared bikes, business model, operating mechanism on Chinese market currently. Finally, in order to make bike sharing serve urban construction better, this paper puts forward some specific countermeasures from four aspects. In terms of market operations, it is necessary to establish a public-private partnership model and set up a unified bike-sharing integrated management platform. From technical methods level, the paper proposes to develop an intelligent parking system for regulating parking. From policy formulation level, establishing a bike-sharing assessment mechanism would strengthen supervision. As to urban planning, sharing data and redesigning slow roadway is beneficial for transportation and spatial planning.

Keywords: bike sharing, impact analysis, improvement strategy, urban space

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16 Assimilating Multi-Mission Satellites Data into a Hydrological Model

Authors: Mehdi Khaki, Ehsan Forootan, Joseph Awange, Michael Kuhn

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Terrestrial water storage, as a source of freshwater, plays an important role in human lives. Hydrological models offer important tools for simulating and predicting water storages at global and regional scales. However, their comparisons with 'reality' are imperfect mainly due to a high level of uncertainty in input data and limitations in accounting for all complex water cycle processes, uncertainties of (unknown) empirical model parameters, as well as the absence of high resolution (both spatially and temporally) data. Data assimilation can mitigate this drawback by incorporating new sets of observations into models. In this effort, we use multi-mission satellite-derived remotely sensed observations to improve the performance of World-Wide Water Resources Assessment system (W3RA) hydrological model for estimating terrestrial water storages. For this purpose, we assimilate total water storage (TWS) data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and surface soil moisture data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) into W3RA. This is done to (i) improve model estimations of water stored in ground and soil moisture, and (ii) assess the impacts of each satellite of data (from GRACE and AMSR-E) and their combination on the final terrestrial water storage estimations. These data are assimilated into W3RA using the Ensemble Square-Root Filter (EnSRF) filtering technique over Mississippi Basin (the United States) and Murray-Darling Basin (Australia) between 2002 and 2013. In order to evaluate the results, independent ground-based groundwater and soil moisture measurements within each basin are used.

Keywords: data assimilation, GRACE, AMSR-E, hydrological model, EnSRF

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15 Elastodynamic Response of Shear Wave Dispersion in a Multi-Layered Concentric Cylinders Composed of Reinforced and Piezo-Materials

Authors: Sunita Kumawat, Sumit Kumar Vishwakarma

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The present study fundamentally focuses on analyzing the limitations and transference of horizontally polarized Shear waves(SH waves) in a four-layered compounded cylinder. The geometrical structure comprises of concentric cylinders of infinite length composed of self-reinforced (SR), fibre-reinforced (FR), piezo-magnetic (PM), and piezo-electric(PE) materials. The entire structure is assumed to be pre stressed along the azimuthal direction. In order to make the structure sensitive to the application pertaining to sensors and actuators, the PM and PE cylinders have been categorically placed in the outer part of the geometry. Whereas in order to provide stiffness and stability to the structure, the inner part consists of self-reinforced and fibre-reinforced media. The common boundary between each of the cylinders has been essentially considered as imperfectly bounded. At the interface of PE and PM media, mechanical, electrical, magnetic, and inter-coupled types of imperfections have been exhibited. The closed-form of dispersion relation has been deduced for two contrast cases i.e. electrically open magnetically short(EOMS) and electrically short and magnetically open ESMO circuit conditions. Dispersion curves have been plotted to illustrate the salient features of parameters like normalized imperfect interface parameters, initial stresses, and radii of the concentric cylinders. The comparative effect of each one of these parameters on the phase velocity of the wave has been enlisted and marked individually. Every graph has been presented with two consecutive modes in succession for a comprehensive understanding. This theoretical study may be implemented to improvise the performance of surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensors and actuators consisting of piezo-electric quartz and piezo-composite concentric cylinders.

Keywords: self-reinforced, fibre-reinforced, piezo-electric, piezo-magnetic, interfacial imperfection

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14 Genetic Algorithm for In-Theatre Military Logistics Search-and-Delivery Path Planning

Authors: Jean Berger, Mohamed Barkaoui

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Discrete search path planning in time-constrained uncertain environment relying upon imperfect sensors is known to be hard, and current problem-solving techniques proposed so far to compute near real-time efficient path plans are mainly bounded to provide a few move solutions. A new information-theoretic –based open-loop decision model explicitly incorporating false alarm sensor readings, to solve a single agent military logistics search-and-delivery path planning problem with anticipated feedback is presented. The decision model consists in minimizing expected entropy considering anticipated possible observation outcomes over a given time horizon. The model captures uncertainty associated with observation events for all possible scenarios. Entropy represents a measure of uncertainty about the searched target location. Feedback information resulting from possible sensor observations outcomes along the projected path plan is exploited to update anticipated unit target occupancy beliefs. For the first time, a compact belief update formulation is generalized to explicitly include false positive observation events that may occur during plan execution. A novel genetic algorithm is then proposed to efficiently solve search path planning, providing near-optimal solutions for practical realistic problem instances. Given the run-time performance of the algorithm, natural extension to a closed-loop environment to progressively integrate real visit outcomes on a rolling time horizon can be easily envisioned. Computational results show the value of the approach in comparison to alternate heuristics.

Keywords: search path planning, false alarm, search-and-delivery, entropy, genetic algorithm

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13 Maintenance Performance Measurement Derived Optimization: A Case Study

Authors: James M. Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri, Stanley Mburu

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Maintenance performance measurement (MPM) represents an integrated aspect that considers both operational and maintenance related aspects while evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of maintenance to ensure assets are working as they should. Three salient issues require to be addressed for an asset-intensive organization to employ an MPM-based framework to optimize maintenance. Firstly, the organization should establish important perfomance metric(s), in this case the maintenance objective(s), which they will be focuss on. The second issue entails aligning the maintenance objective(s) with maintenance optimization. This is achieved by deriving maintenance performance indicators that subsequently form an objective function for the optimization program. Lastly, the objective function is employed in an optimization program to derive maintenance decision support. In this study, we develop a framework that initially identifies the crucial maintenance performance measures, and employs them to derive maintenance decision support. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a geothermal drilling rig, where the objective function is evaluated utilizing a simulation-based model whose parameters are derived from empirical maintenance data. Availability, reliability and maintenance inventory are depicted as essential objectives requiring further attention. A simulation model is developed mimicking a drilling rig operations and maintenance where the sub-systems are modelled undergoing imperfect maintenance, corrective (CM) and preventive (PM), with the total cost as the primary performance measurement. Moreover, three maintenance spare inventory policies are considered; classical (retaining stocks for a contractual period), vendor-managed inventory with consignment stock and periodic monitoring order-to-stock (s, S) policy. Optimization results infer that the adoption of (s, S) inventory policy, increased PM interval and reduced reliance of CM actions offers improved availability and total costs reduction.

Keywords: maintenance, vendor-managed, decision support, performance, optimization

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12 The Rational Mode of Affordable Housing Based on the Special Residence Space Form of City Village in Xiamen

Authors: Pingrong Liao

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Currently, as China is in the stage of rapid urbanization, a large number of rural population have flown into the city and it is urgent to solve the housing problem. Xiamen is the typical city of China characterized by high housing price and low-income. Due to the government failed to provide adequate public cheap housing, a large number of immigrants dwell in the informal rental housing represented by the "city village". Comfortable housing is the prerequisite for the harmony and stability of the city. Therefore, with "city village" and the affordable housing as the main object of study, this paper makes an analysis on the housing status, personnel distribution and mobility of the "city village" of Xiamen, and also carries out a primary research on basic facilities such as the residential form and commercial, property management services, with the combination of the existing status of the affordable housing in Xiamen, and finally summary and comparison are made by the author in an attempt to provide some references and experience for the construction and improvement of the government-subsidized housing to improve the residential quality of the urban-poverty stricken people. In this paper, the data and results are collated and quantified objectively based on the relevant literature, the latest market data and practical investigation as well as research methods of comparative study and case analysis. Informal rental housing, informal economy and informal management of "city village" as social-housing units in many ways fit in the housing needs of the floating population, providing a convenient and efficient condition for the flowing of people. However, the existing urban housing in Xiamen have some drawbacks, for example, the housing are unevenly distributed, the spatial form is single, the allocation standard of public service facilities is not targeted to the subsidized object, the property management system is imperfect and the cost is too high, therefore, this paper draws lessons from the informal model of city village”, and finally puts forward some improvement strategies.

Keywords: urban problem, urban village, affordable housing, living mode, Xiamen constructing

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11 Improving the Bioprocess Phenotype of Chinese Hamster Ovary Cells Using CRISPR/Cas9 and Sponge Decoy Mediated MiRNA Knockdowns

Authors: Kevin Kellner, Nga Lao, Orla Coleman, Paula Meleady, Niall Barron

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Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells are the prominent cell line used in biopharmaceutical production. To improve yields and find beneficial bioprocess phenotypes genetic engineering plays an essential role in recent research. The miR-23 cluster, specifically miR-24 and miR-27, was first identified as differentially expressed during hypothermic conditions suggesting a role in proliferation and productivity in CHO cells. In this study, we used sponge decoy technology to stably deplete the miRNA expression of the cluster. Furthermore, we implemented the CRISPR/Cas9 system to knockdown miRNA expression. Sponge constructs were designed for an imperfect binding of the miRNA target, protecting from RISC mediated cleavage. GuideRNAs for the CRISPR/Cas9 system were designed to target the seed region of the miRNA. The expression of mature miRNA and precursor were confirmed using RT-qPCR. For both approaches stable expressing mixed populations were generated and characterised in batch cultures. It was shown, that CRISPR/Cas9 can be implemented in CHO cells with achieving high knockdown efficacy of every single member of the cluster. Targeting of one miRNA member showed that its genomic paralog is successfully targeted as well. The stable depletion of miR-24 using CRISPR/Cas9 showed increased growth and specific productivity in a CHO-K1 mAb expressing cell line. This phenotype was further characterized using quantitative label-free LC-MS/MS showing 186 proteins differently expressed with 19 involved in proliferation and 26 involved in protein folding/translation. Targeting miR-27 in the same cell line showed increased viability in late stages of the culture compared to the control. To evaluate the phenotype in an industry relevant cell line; the miR-23 cluster, miR-24 and miR-27 were stably depleted in a Fc fusion CHO-S cell line which showed increased batch titers up to 1.5-fold. In this work, we highlighted that the stable depletion of the miR-23 cluster and its members can improve the bioprocess phenotype concerning growth and productivity in two different cell lines. Furthermore, we showed that using CRISPR/Cas9 is comparable to the traditional sponge decoy technology.

Keywords: Chinese Hamster ovary cells, CRISPR/Cas9, microRNAs, sponge decoy technology

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10 Management of Nutrition Education in Spa Resorts in Poland

Authors: Joanna Wozniak-Holecka, Sylwia Jaruga-Sekowska

Abstract:

There are 45 statutory spa and treatment areas in Poland, and the demand for spa and treatment services increases year by year. Within each type of spa treatment facilities, nutritional education services are provided. During spa treatment, the patient learns the principles of rational nutrition and applied diet therapy. It should help him develop proper eating habits, which will also follow at home. However, the nutrition education system of spa resort patients should be considered as very imperfect and requiring a definite systemic correction. It has, at the same time, a wide human and infrastructure base, which guarantees to obtain positive reinforcement in the scope of undertaken activities and management. Unfortunately, this advantage is not fully used. The aim of the project was to assess the quality of implemented nutritional education and to assess the diet of patients in spa treatment entities from a nationwide perspective. The material for the study was data obtained as part of an in-depth interview conducted among nutrition department managers (25 interviews) and a survey addressed to patients (600 questionnaires) of a selected group of spa resorts from across the country about the implementation of nutritional education in institutions. Also, decade menus for the basic diet, easily digestible diet and diet with limitation of easily digestible carbohydrates (a total of 1,120 menus) were obtained for the study. Almost 2/3 of respondents (73.2%) were overweight or obese, but only 32.8% decided on an easily digestible or low-energy diet during the treatment. Most of the surveyed patients rated the nutrition in spa resorts as satisfactory. Classes on nutrition education were carried out mainly by a dietitian (65% of meetings), the other educators were doctors and nurses. The meetings (95%) were of a group nature and lasted only 30 minutes on average. The subjects of the classes concerned the principles of proper nutrition and composition of meals, a nutrition pyramid and a diet adapted to a given disease. The assessed menus did not meet the nutrition standards and, therefore, did not provide patients with the correct quality of nutrition. The norm of protein, fat, vitamin A, B12, phosphorus, iron and sodium was exceeded, while vitamin D, folic acid, magnesium and zinc were not enough than recommended. The study allowed to conclude that there is a large discrepancy between the recommendations presented during the nutrition education classes and the quality of diet implemented in the examined institutions. The project may contribute to the development of effective educational tools in nutrition, especially about a specific group of chronically ill patients.

Keywords: diet, management, nutritional education, spa resort

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9 Global Modeling of Drill String Dragging and Buckling in 3D Curvilinear Bore-Holes

Authors: Valery Gulyayev, Sergey Glazunov, Elena Andrusenko, Nataliya Shlyun

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Enhancement of technology and techniques for drilling deep directed oil and gas bore-wells are of essential industrial significance because these wells make it possible to increase their productivity and output. Generally, they are used for drilling in hard and shale formations, that is why their drivage processes are followed by the emergency and failure effects. As is corroborated by practice, the principal drilling drawback occurring in drivage of long curvilinear bore-wells is conditioned by the need to obviate essential force hindrances caused by simultaneous action of the gravity, contact and friction forces. Primarily, these forces depend on the type of the technological regime, drill string stiffness, bore-hole tortuosity and its length. They can lead to the Eulerian buckling of the drill string and its sticking. To predict and exclude these states, special mathematic models and methods of computer simulation should play a dominant role. At the same time, one might note that these mechanical phenomena are very complex and only simplified approaches (‘soft string drag and torque models’) are used for their analysis. Taking into consideration that now the cost of directed wells increases essentially with complication of their geometry and enlargement of their lengths, it can be concluded that the price of mistakes of the drill string behavior simulation through the use of simplified approaches can be very high and so the problem of correct software elaboration is very urgent. This paper deals with the problem of simulating the regimes of drilling deep curvilinear bore-wells with prescribed imperfect geometrical trajectories of their axial lines. On the basis of the theory of curvilinear flexible elastic rods, methods of differential geometry, and numerical analysis methods, the 3D ‘stiff-string drag and torque model’ of the drill string bending and the appropriate software are elaborated for the simulation of the tripping in and out regimes and drilling operations. It is shown by the computer calculations that the contact and friction forces can be calculated and regulated, providing predesigned trouble-free modes of operation. The elaborated mathematic models and software can be used for the emergency situations prognostication and their exclusion at the stages of the drilling process design and realization.

Keywords: curvilinear drilling, drill string tripping in and out, contact forces, resistance forces

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8 Criminal Law and Internet of Things: Challenges and Threats

Authors: Celina Nowak

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The development of information and communication technologies (ICT) and a consequent growth of cyberspace have become a reality of modern societies. The newest addition to this complex structure has been Internet of Things which is due to the appearance of smart devices. IoT creates a new dimension of the network, as the communication is no longer the domain of just humans, but has also become possible between devices themselves. The possibility of communication between devices, devoid of human intervention and real-time supervision, generated new societal and legal challenges. Some of them may and certainly will eventually be connected to criminal law. Legislators both on national and international level have been struggling to cope with this technologically evolving environment in order to address new threats created by the ICT. There are legal instruments on cybercrime, however imperfect and not of universal scope, sometimes referring to specific types of prohibited behaviors undertaken by criminals, such as money laundering, sex offences. However, the criminal law seems largely not prepared to the challenges which may arise because of the development of IoT. This is largely due to the fact that criminal law, both on national and international level, is still based on the concept of perpetration of an offence by a human being. This is a traditional approach, historically and factually justified. Over time, some legal systems have developed or accepted the possibility of commission of an offence by a corporation, a legal person. This is in fact a legal fiction, as a legal person cannot commit an offence as such, it needs humans to actually behave in a certain way on its behalf. Yet, the legislators have come to understand that corporations have their own interests and may benefit from crime – and therefore need to be penalized. This realization however has not been welcome by all states and still give rise to doubts of ontological and theoretical nature in many legal systems. For this reason, in many legislations the liability of legal persons for commission of an offence has not been recognized as criminal responsibility. With the technological progress and the growing use of IoT the discussions referring to criminal responsibility of corporations seem rather inadequate. The world is now facing new challenges and new threats related to the ‘smart’ things. They will have to be eventually addressed by legislators if they want to, as they should, to keep up with the pace of technological and societal evolution. This will however require a reevaluation and possibly restructuring of the most fundamental notions of modern criminal law, such as perpetration, guilt, participation in crime. It remains unclear at this point what norms and legal concepts will be and may be established. The main goal of the research is to point out to the challenges ahead of the national and international legislators in the said context and to attempt to formulate some indications as to the directions of changes, having in mind serious threats related to privacy and security related to the use of IoT.

Keywords: criminal law, internet of things, privacy, security threats

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7 Robust Processing of Antenna Array Signals under Local Scattering Environments

Authors: Ju-Hong Lee, Ching-Wei Liao

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An adaptive array beamformer is designed for automatically preserving the desired signals while cancelling interference and noise. Providing robustness against model mismatches and tracking possible environment changes calls for robust adaptive beamforming techniques. The design criterion yields the well-known generalized sidelobe canceller (GSC) beamformer. In practice, the knowledge of the desired steering vector can be imprecise, which often occurs due to estimation errors in the DOA of the desired signal or imperfect array calibration. In these situations, the SOI is considered as interference, and the performance of the GSC beamformer is known to degrade. This undesired behavior results in a reduction of the array output signal-to-interference plus-noise-ratio (SINR). Therefore, it is worth developing robust techniques to deal with the problem due to local scattering environments. As to the implementation of adaptive beamforming, the required computational complexity is enormous when the array beamformer is equipped with massive antenna array sensors. To alleviate this difficulty, a generalized sidelobe canceller (GSC) with partially adaptivity for less adaptive degrees of freedom and faster adaptive response has been proposed in the literature. Unfortunately, it has been shown that the conventional GSC-based adaptive beamformers are usually very sensitive to the mismatch problems due to local scattering situations. In this paper, we present an effective GSC-based beamformer against the mismatch problems mentioned above. The proposed GSC-based array beamformer adaptively estimates the actual direction of the desired signal by using the presumed steering vector and the received array data snapshots. We utilize the predefined steering vector and a presumed angle tolerance range to carry out the required estimation for obtaining an appropriate steering vector. A matrix associated with the direction vector of signal sources is first created. Then projection matrices related to the matrix are generated and are utilized to iteratively estimate the actual direction vector of the desired signal. As a result, the quiescent weight vector and the required signal blocking matrix required for performing adaptive beamforming can be easily found. By utilizing the proposed GSC-based beamformer, we find that the performance degradation due to the considered local scattering environments can be effectively mitigated. To further enhance the beamforming performance, a signal subspace projection matrix is also introduced into the proposed GSC-based beamformer. Several computer simulation examples show that the proposed GSC-based beamformer outperforms the existing robust techniques.

Keywords: adaptive antenna beamforming, local scattering, signal blocking, steering mismatch

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6 The Markers -mm and dämmo in Amharic: Developmental Approach

Authors: Hayat Omar

Abstract:

Languages provide speakers with a wide range of linguistic units to organize and deliver information. There are several ways to verbally express the mental representations of events. According to the linguistic tools they have acquired, speakers select the one that brings out the most communicative effect to convey their message. Our study focuses on two markers, -mm and dämmo, in Amharic (Ethiopian Semitic language). Our aim is to examine, from a developmental perspective, how they are used by speakers. We seek to distinguish the communicative and pragmatic functions indicated by means of these markers. To do so, we created a corpus of sixty narrative productions of children from 5-6, 7-8 to 10-12 years old and adult Amharic speakers. The experimental material we used to collect our data is a series of pictures without text 'Frog, Where are you?'. Although -mm and dämmo are each used in specific contexts, they are sometimes analyzed as being interchangeable. The suffix -mm is complex and multifunctional. It marks the end of the negative verbal structure, it is found in the relative structure of the imperfect, it creates new words such as adverbials or pronouns, it also serves to coordinate words, sentences and to mark the link between macro-propositions within a larger textual unit. -mm was analyzed as marker of insistence, topic shift marker, element of concatenation, contrastive focus marker, 'bisyndetic' coordinator. On the other hand, dämmo has limited function and did not attract the attention of many authors. The only approach we could find analyzes it in terms of 'monosyndetic' coordinator. The paralleling of these two elements made it possible to understand their distinctive functions and refine their description. When it comes to marking a referent, the choice of -mm or dämmo is not neutral, depending on whether the tagged argument is newly introduced, maintained, promoted or reintroduced. The presence of these morphemes explains the inter-phrastic link. The information is seized by anaphora or presupposition: -mm goes upstream while dämmo arrows downstream, the latter requires new information. The speaker uses -mm or dämmo according to what he assumes to be known to his interlocutors. The results show that -mm and dämmo, although all the speakers use them both, do not always have the same scope according to the speaker and vary according to the age. dämmo is mainly used to mark a contrastive topic to signal the concomitance of events. It is more commonly used in young children’s narratives (F(3,56) = 3,82, p < .01). Some values of -mm (additive) are acquired very early while others are rather late and increase with age (F(3,56) = 3,2, p < .03). The difficulty is due not only because of its synthetic structure but primarily because it is multi-purpose and requires a memory work. It highlights the constituent on which it operates to clarify how the message should be interpreted.

Keywords: acquisition, cohesion, connection, contrastive topic, contrastive focus, discourse marker, pragmatics

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5 Persistent Ribosomal In-Frame Mis-Translation of Stop Codons as Amino Acids in Multiple Open Reading Frames of a Human Long Non-Coding RNA

Authors: Leonard Lipovich, Pattaraporn Thepsuwan, Anton-Scott Goustin, Juan Cai, Donghong Ju, James B. Brown

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Two-thirds of human genes do not encode any known proteins. Aside from long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) genes with recently-discovered functions, the ~40,000 non-protein-coding human genes remain poorly understood, and a role for their transcripts as de-facto unconventional messenger RNAs has not been formally excluded. Ribosome profiling (Riboseq) predicts translational potential, but without independent evidence of proteins from lncRNA open reading frames (ORFs), ribosome binding of lncRNAs does not prove translation. Previously, we mass-spectrometrically documented translation of specific lncRNAs in human K562 and GM12878 cells. We now examined lncRNA translation in human MCF7 cells, integrating strand-specific Illumina RNAseq, Riboseq, and deep mass spectrometry in biological quadruplicates performed at two core facilities (BGI, China; City of Hope, USA). We excluded known-protein matches. UCSC Genome Browser-assisted manual annotation of imperfect (tryptic-digest-peptides)-to-(lncRNA-three-frame-translations) alignments revealed three peptides hypothetically explicable by 'stop-to-nonstop' in-frame replacement of stop codons by amino acids in two ORFs of the lncRNA MMP24-AS1. To search for this phenomenon genomewide, we designed and implemented a novel pipeline, matching tryptic-digest spectra to wildcard-instead-of-stop versions of repeat-masked, six-frame, whole-genome translations. Along with singleton putative stop-to-nonstop events affecting four other lncRNAs, we identified 24 additional peptides with stop-to-nonstop in-frame substitutions from multiple positive-strand MMP24-AS1 ORFs. Only UAG and UGA, never UAA, stop codons were impacted. All MMP24-AS1-matching spectra met the same significance thresholds as high-confidence known-protein signatures. Targeted resequencing of MMP24-AS1 genomic DNA and cDNA from the same samples did not reveal any mutations, polymorphisms, or sequencing-detectable RNA editing. This unprecedented apparent gene-specific violation of the genetic code highlights the importance of matching peptides to whole-genome, not known-genes-only, ORFs in mass-spectrometry workflows, and suggests a new mechanism enhancing the combinatorial complexity of the proteome. Funding: NIH Director’s New Innovator Award 1DP2-CA196375 to LL.

Keywords: genetic code, lncRNA, long non-coding RNA, mass spectrometry, proteogenomics, ribo-seq, ribosome, RNAseq

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4 Valorization of Surveillance Data and Assessment of the Sensitivity of a Surveillance System for an Infectious Disease Using a Capture-Recapture Model

Authors: Jean-Philippe Amat, Timothée Vergne, Aymeric Hans, Bénédicte Ferry, Pascal Hendrikx, Jackie Tapprest, Barbara Dufour, Agnès Leblond

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The surveillance of infectious diseases is necessary to describe their occurrence and help the planning, implementation and evaluation of risk mitigation activities. However, the exact number of detected cases may remain unknown whether surveillance is based on serological tests because identifying seroconversion may be difficult. Moreover, incomplete detection of cases or outbreaks is a recurrent issue in the field of disease surveillance. This study addresses these two issues. Using a viral animal disease as an example (equine viral arteritis), the goals were to establish suitable rules for identifying seroconversion in order to estimate the number of cases and outbreaks detected by a surveillance system in France between 2006 and 2013, and to assess the sensitivity of this system by estimating the total number of outbreaks that occurred during this period (including unreported outbreaks) using a capture-recapture model. Data from horses which exhibited at least one positive result in serology using viral neutralization test between 2006 and 2013 were used for analysis (n=1,645). Data consisted of the annual antibody titers and the location of the subjects (towns). A consensus among multidisciplinary experts (specialists in the disease and its laboratory diagnosis, epidemiologists) was reached to consider seroconversion as a change in antibody titer from negative to at least 32 or as a three-fold or greater increase. The number of seroconversions was counted for each town and modeled using a unilist zero-truncated binomial (ZTB) capture-recapture model with R software. The binomial denominator was the number of horses tested in each infected town. Using the defined rules, 239 cases located in 177 towns (outbreaks) were identified from 2006 to 2013. Subsequently, the sensitivity of the surveillance system was estimated as the ratio of the number of detected outbreaks to the total number of outbreaks that occurred (including unreported outbreaks) estimated using the ZTB model. The total number of outbreaks was estimated at 215 (95% credible interval CrI95%: 195-249) and the surveillance sensitivity at 82% (CrI95%: 71-91). The rules proposed for identifying seroconversion may serve future research. Such rules, adjusted to the local environment, could conceivably be applied in other countries with surveillance programs dedicated to this disease. More generally, defining ad hoc algorithms for interpreting the antibody titer could be useful regarding other human and animal diseases and zoonosis when there is a lack of accurate information in the literature about the serological response in naturally infected subjects. This study shows how capture-recapture methods may help to estimate the sensitivity of an imperfect surveillance system and to valorize surveillance data. The sensitivity of the surveillance system of equine viral arteritis is relatively high and supports its relevance to prevent the disease spreading.

Keywords: Bayesian inference, capture-recapture, epidemiology, equine viral arteritis, infectious disease, seroconversion, surveillance

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