Search results for: accident modeling

Authors: J. R. Wang, Y. Chiang, W. S. Hsu, S. H. Chen, J. H. Yang, S. W. Chen, C. Shih, Y. F. Chang, Y. H. Huang, B. R. Shen

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In this research, the RASCAL code was used to simulate and analyze the postulated UF₆ fire accident which may occur in the Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER). There are four main steps in this research. In the first step, the UF₆ data of INER were collected. In the second step, the RASCAL analysis methodology and model was established by using these data. Third, this RASCAL model was used to perform the simulation and analysis of the postulated UF₆ fire accident. Three cases were simulated and analyzed in this step. Finally, the analysis results of RASCAL were compared with the hazardous levels of the chemicals. According to the compared results of three cases, Case 3 has the maximum danger in human health.

Keywords: RASCAL, UF₆, safety, hydrogen fluoride

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Thanom Kaeniam

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ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) is a state of sudden death of the heart muscle due to sudden blockage of the artery. STEMI patients are usually in critical condition and with a potential opportunity for sudden death. Therefore, management guidelines for safety in caring and referring STEMI patients are needed. The objective of this developmental research was to assess the effectiveness of using the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients at the Accident and Emergency Department of Songkhla Hospital. The subjects of the study were 22 nurses in the emergency room, and doctors on duty in the accident and emergency room selected using purposive sampling with inclusion criteria. The research instruments were the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients, and record forms for the effectiveness of using the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients (a general record form for STEMI patients, a record form for SK administering, a referring record form for PCI, and a record form for dead patient in the accident and emergency room and during referring). The instruments were tested for content validity by three experts, and the reliability was tested using Kuder-Richardson 20 (KR20). The descriptive statistic employed was the percentage. The outcomes of using the guidelines for caring and referring ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction (STEMI) Patients at the Accident and Emergency Department revealed that before using the guidelines in 2009, 2010, and 2011, there were 84, 73, and 138 STEMI patients receiving services at the accident and emergency room, of which, only 9, 32, and 48 patients were referred for PCI/SK medications, or 10.74; 43.84; and 34.78 percent, and the death rates were 10.71; 10.95; and 11.59 percent, respectively. However, after the use of the guidelines in 2012, 2013, and 2014, there were 97, 77, and 57 patients, of which, the increases to 77, 72, and 55 patients were referred for PCI /SK medications or 79.37; 93.51; and 96.49 percent, and the death rates were reduced to 10.30; 6.49; and 1.76 percent, respectively. The results of the study revealed that the use of the guidelines for caring and referring STEMI patients at the Accident and Emergency Department increased the effectiveness and quality of nursing, especially in terms of SK medication, caring and referring patients for PCI to reduce the death rate.

Keywords: outcomes, guidelines for caring, referring, myocardial infarction, STEMI

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Ali Maji

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Highway development is an important factor for economic growth and development in both developed and developing countries. In Nigeria about two-third of transportation of goods and persons are done through highway network. It was this that made highway investment to enjoy position of relative high priority on the list of government expenditure programmes in Nigeria today. The paper noted that despite expansion of public investment in highway construction and maintenance of them, road traffic accident is increasing rate. This has acted as a drain of human capital which is a key to economic growth and development in Nigeria. In order to avoid this, the paper recommend introduction of Highway Safety Education (HSE) in Nigerian’s education system and investment in train transportation among other as a sure measure for curtailing highway accident.

Keywords: accident rate, high way development, human capital, national development

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: M. Hussaina, K. Mahboobb, S. Z. Ilyasa, S. Shaheena

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Plume dispersion modeling is a computational procedure to establish a relationship between emissions, meteorology, atmospheric concentrations, deposition and other factors. The emission characteristics (stack height, stack diameter, release velocity, heat contents, chemical and physical properties of the gases/particle released etc.), terrain (surface roughness, local topography, nearby buildings) and meteorology (wind speed, stability, mixing height, etc.) are required for the modeling of the plume dispersion and estimation of ground and air concentration. During the early phase of Fukushima accident, plume dispersion modeling and decisions were taken for the implementation of protective measures. A difference in estimated results and decisions made by different countries for taking protective actions created a concern in local and international community regarding the exact identification of the safe zone. The current study is focused to highlight the importance of accurate and exact weather data availability, scientific approach for decision making for taking urgent protective actions, compatible and harmonized approach for plume dispersion modeling during a nuclear emergency. As a case study, the influence of meteorological data on plume dispersion modeling and decision-making process has been performed.

Keywords: decision making process, radiation doses, nuclear emergency, meteorological implications

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Sathapath Kilaso

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Thailand has a large range of geographic diversity. Thailand can be divided into 5 regions which are North Region, East Region, West Region, South Region and North-East Region which each region has a different geographic and climate. Especially in North Region, the geographic is mountain and intermontane plateau which will be a reason that the roads in the North Region have a lot of bends. So the driver in the North Region road will have to have a very high skill of driving. If the accident is occurred, the emergency rescue will have a hard time to reach the accident area and rescue the victim of the accident as the long distance and steep road. This article will apply the concept of the wireless sensor network with the micro-controller to alert the driver when the driver reaches the very dangerous bend.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, motion sensor, smart alert, dangerous bend

Procedia PDF Downloads 253

Authors: Rodrigo Aguiar, Adelino Ferreira

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Road traffic accidents are the leading cause of unnatural death and injuries worldwide, representing a significant problem of road safety. In this context, the use of artificial intelligence with advanced machine learning techniques has gained prominence as a promising approach to predict traffic accidents. This article investigates the application of machine learning algorithms to develop traffic accident frequency prediction models. Models are evaluated based on performance metrics, making it possible to do a comparative analysis with traditional prediction approaches. The results suggest that machine learning can provide a powerful tool for accident prediction, which will contribute to making more informed decisions regarding road safety.

Keywords: machine learning, artificial intelligence, frequency of accidents, road safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Dmitry Aron

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Major radiation accidents carry not only the potential risks of negative consequences for public health due to exposure but also because of large-scale emergency measures were taken by authorities to protect the population, which can lead to unreasonable social and economic damage. It is technically difficult, as a rule, to assess the possible costs and damages from decisions on evacuation or resettlement of residents in the shortest possible time, since it requires specially prepared information systems containing relevant information on demographic, economic parameters and incoming data on radiation conditions. Foreign observers also face the difficulties in assessing the consequences of an accident in a foreign territory, since they usually do not have official and detailed statistical data on the territory of foreign state beforehand. Also, they can suppose the application of unofficial data from open Internet sources is an unreliable and overly labor-consuming procedure. This paper describes an approach to prompt creation of relational database that contains detailed actual data on economics, demographics and radiation situation at the Fukushima Prefecture during the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident, received by the author from open Internet sources. This database was developed and used to assess the number of evacuated population, radiation doses, expected financial losses and other parameters of the affected areas. The costs for the areas with temporarily evacuated and long-term resettled population were investigated, and the radiological and economic effectiveness of the measures taken to protect the population was estimated. Some of the results are presented in the article. The study showed that such a tool for analyzing the consequences of radiation accidents can be prepared in a short space of time for the entire territory of Japan, and it can serve for the modeling of social and economic consequences for hypothetical accidents for any nuclear power plant in its territory.

Keywords: Fukushima, radiation accident, emergency measures, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 168

Authors: Xuewei Li, Jingfeng Yuan, Jianliang Zhou

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The 21st century has been called the century of human exploitation of underground space. Due to the characteristics of large quantity, tight schedule, low safety reserve and high uncertainty of deep foundation pit engineering, accidents frequently occur in deep foundation pit engineering, causing huge economic losses and casualties. With the successful application of information technology in the construction industry, building information modeling has become a research hotspot in the field of architectural engineering. Therefore, the application of building information modeling (BIM) and other information communication technologies (ICTs) in construction safety management is of great significance to improve the level of safety management. This research summed up the mechanism of the deep foundation pit engineering accident through the fault tree analysis to find the control factors of deep foundation pit engineering safety management, the deficiency existing in the traditional deep foundation pit construction site safety management. According to the accident cause mechanism and the specific process of deep foundation pit construction, the hazard information of deep foundation pit engineering construction site was identified, and the hazard list was obtained, including early warning information. After that, the system framework was constructed by analyzing the early warning information demand and early warning function demand of the safety management system of deep foundation pit. Finally, the safety management system of deep foundation pit construction site based on BIM through combing the database and Web-BIM technology was developed, so as to realize the three functions of real-time positioning of construction site personnel, automatic warning of entering a dangerous area, real-time monitoring of deep foundation pit structure deformation and automatic warning. This study can initially improve the current situation of safety management in the construction site of deep foundation pit. Additionally, the active control before the occurrence of deep foundation pit accidents and the whole process dynamic control in the construction process can be realized so as to prevent and control the occurrence of safety accidents in the construction of deep foundation pit engineering.

Keywords: Web-BIM, safety management, deep foundation pit, construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 131

Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, F. Silveira, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Research background: Problems related to the occupational health and decreasing level of safety occur commonly in the construction industry. Important factor in the occupational safety in construction industry is scaffold use. All scaffolds used in construction, renovation, and demolition shall be erected, dismantled and maintained in accordance with safety procedure. Increasing demand for new construction projects unfortunately still is linked to high level of occupational accidents. Therefore, it is crucial to implement concrete actions while dealing with scaffolds and risk assessment in construction industry, the way on doing assessment and liability of assessment is critical for both construction workers and regulatory framework. Unfortunately, professionals, who tend to rely heavily on their own experience and knowledge when taking decisions regarding risk assessment, may show lack of reliability in checking the results of decisions taken. Purpose of the article: The aim was to indicate crucial parameters that could be modeling with Risk Assessment Model (RAM) use for improving both building enterprise productivity and/or developing potential and safety climate. The developed RAM could be a benefit for predicting high-risk construction activities and thus preventing accidents occurred based on a set of historical accident data. Methodology/Methods: A RAM has been developed for assessing risk levels as various construction process stages with various work trades impacting different spheres of enterprise activity. This project includes research carried out by teams of researchers on over 60 construction sites in Poland and Portugal, under which over 450 individual research cycles were carried out. The conducted research trials included variable conditions of employee exposure to harmful physical and chemical factors, variable levels of stress of employees and differences in behaviors and habits of staff. Genetic modeling tool has been used for developing the RAM. Findings and value added: Common types of trades, accidents, and accident causes have been explored, in addition to suitable risk assessment methods and criteria. We have found that the initial worker stress level is more direct predictor for developing the unsafe chain leading to the accident rather than the workload, or concentration of harmful factors at the workplace or even training frequency and management involvement.

Keywords: safety climate, occupational health, civil engineering, productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Chil-Chyuan Kuo, Chen-Hsuan Tsai

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This study presents a cost-effective approach for rapid fabricating modeling platforms utilized in fused deposition modeling system. A small-batch production of modeling platforms about 20 pieces can be obtained economically through silicone rubber mold using vacuum casting without applying the plastic injection molding. The air venting systems is crucial for fabricating modeling platform using vacuum casting. Modeling platforms fabricated can be used for building rapid prototyping model after sandblasting. This study offers industrial value because it has both time-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Keywords: vacuum casting, fused deposition modeling, modeling platform, sandblasting, surface roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Pranab Kumar Goswami, Elena Gurung

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Small and medium enterprises (SME) are considered as the driving force for the economic growth of a developing country like India. Most of the SMEs are located in residential/non-industrial areas to avoid legal obligations of occupational safety and health (OSH) provisions. This study was conducted in Delhiwith a view to analyze the accidents that occurredduringthe year 2019 & 2020. The objective of the study was to find out the accident prone SMEs in Delhi and major causes of such accidents. Methods: Survey and comprehensive data analysis methods, followed by applying simple statistical techniques, were used for this study. The accident reports for the study period collected from the labour department and police stations were analyzed for the study. The injured workers were interviewed to ascertain safety compliances, training and awareness programs, etc. The study was completed in March2021. Results: It was found that most of the accidents took place in SMEs located in residential/non- industrial areas in Delhi. The accident-prone machines were found to be power presses (42%) and injection moulding machines (37%). Predominantly unsafe machinery or unsafe working conditions and lack of training of worker were observed to be the major causes of accidents in such industries. Conclusions: It was concluded from the study that unsafe machinery/equipment and lack of proper training to the workers were two main reasons for increase in accidents.It was also concluded that the industries located in industrial areas were better placed in terms of workplace compliances. The managements who were running their operations from residential/non-industrial areaswere found to be less aware on health and safety issues. Lack of enforcement by government agencies in such areas has escalated this problem. Adequate training to workers, managing safe & healthy workplace, and sustained enforcement can reduce accidents in such industries.

Keywords: SME, accident prevention, cause of accident, unorganised

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Seongsoo Lee

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IP reuse is an effective design methodology for modern SoC design to reduce effort and time. However, description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are different due to different IP designers. In this paper, standardized description and modeling methods of IP interfaces are proposed. It consists of 11 items such as IP information, model provision, data type, description level, interface information, port information, signal information, protocol information, modeling level, modeling information, and source file. The proposed description and modeling methods enables easy understanding, simulation, verification, and modification in IP reuse.

Keywords: interface, standardization, description, modeling, semiconductor IP

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Mohammed Seid, Aklilu Azazh, Fikre Enquselassie, Engida Yisma

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Background: Road traffic injuries are the eighth leading cause of death globally, and the leading cause of death for young people. More than a million people die each year on the world’s roads, and the risk of dying as a result of a road traffic injury is highest in the Africa. Methods: A prospective hospital-based study was undertaken to assess injury characteristics and outcome of road traffic accident among victims at Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was used to gather the required data. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS version 16.0. Results: A total of 230 road traffic accident victims were studied. The majority of the study subjects were men 165 (71.7%) and the male/female ratio was 2.6:1. The victims’ ages ranged from 14 to 80 years with the mean and standard deviations of 32.15 and ± 14.38 years respectively. Daily laborers (95 (41.3%)) and students (28 (12.2%)) were the majority of road traffic accident victims. Long-distance travelling Minibus (16.5%) was responsible for the majority of road traffic crash followed by followed by Taxi (14.8%) and pedestrians (62.6%) accounted for the majority of road traffic accident. Head (50.4%) and musculoskeletal (extremities) (47.0%) were the most common body region injured. Fractures (78.0%) and open wounds (56.5%) were the most common type of injuries sustained. Treatment of fracture was the most common procedure performed in 57.7 % of the victims. The overall length of hospital stay (LOS) ranged from 1 day to 61 days with mean (± standard deviation) of 7.12 ± 10.5 days and the mortality rate was 7.4 %. A significant higher proportion of victims aged 14-55 years were had less likelihood of death compared to those victims aged more than 55 years of age [Adjusted OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.82)]. Conclusions: This study showed diverse injury characteristics and high morbidity and mortality among the victims attending Adult Emergency Department of Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The findings reflect that road traffic accident is a major public health problem. Urgent road traffic accident preventive measures and prompt treatment of the victims are warranted in order to reduce morbidity and mortality among the victims.

Keywords: road traffic accident, injury characteristics, outcome, Tikur Anbesa specialized hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 357

Authors: Ayse Ozturk

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The study extends the prior research on modeling competencies by positioning students’ cognitive and language resources as the fundamentals for pursuing their own inquiry and expression lines through mathematical modeling. This strategy aims to answer the question that guides this study, “How do students’ group approaches to modeling tasks affect their modeling competencies over a unit of instruction?” Six bilingual tenth-grade students worked on open-ended modeling problems along with the content focused on quantities over six weeks. Each group was found to have a unique cognitive approach for solving these problems. Three different problem-solving strategies affected how the groups’ modeling competencies changed. The results provide evidence that the discussion around groups’ solutions, coupled with their reflections, advances group interpreting and validating competencies in the mathematical modeling process

Keywords: cognition, collective learning, mathematical modeling competencies, problem-solving

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo

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Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.

Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Arefeh Lotfi, Mahdi Babaei, Ayda Mashhadizadeh, Samira Nikpour, Morteza Bagheri

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The main objective of this study is to investigate the key factors in accidents’ severity at rail-road level crossings. The data required for this study is obtained from both accident and inventory database of Iran Railways during 2009-2015. The Ordered Probit model is developed using SPSS software to identify the significant factors in the accident severity at rail-road level crossings. The results show that 'train speed', 'vehicle type' and 'weather' are the most important factors affecting the severity of the accident. The results of these studies assist to allocate resources in the right place. This paper suggests mandating the regulations to reduce train speed at rail-road level crossings in bad weather conditions to improve the safety of rail-road level crossings.

Keywords: rail-road level crossing, ordered probit model, accidents’ severity, significant factors

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Authors: Antoaneta Stefanova, Rositsa Gencheva, Pavlin Groudev

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This paper presents an application of the ASTEC V2r3p3 computer code for simulation of QUENCH-12 experiment. The test has been performed to investigate the behavior of VVER type of fuel assemblies during severe accident conditions. In the performed analyses it has been assessed the mass of generated hydrogen during the experiment flooding of overheated core. The comparison of ASTECv2r3p3 calculated results with measured test data shows good agreement.

Keywords: hydrogen production, VVER, QUENCH facility, severe accident, reactor core

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: A. B. M. Aftabuzzaman, Md. Mahin Hossain, Md. Ifran Sharif Imthi, Md. Razu Ahmed, A. Z. M. Imran

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The goals of the study are to develop a safety system that is combined with a smart helmet to reduce the likelihood of two-wheeler bike accidents and cases of drunk driving. The smart helmet and the limit switch both verify when a biker is wearing a helmet. The presence of alcohol in the rider's breath is detected using alcohol sensors. The bike remains turned off if the rider is not wearing a helmet or if the rider's breath contains alcohol. The bike will not start until the rider is wearing a helmet and there is no alcoholic substance present, indicating that the bike rider has not consumed alcohol. When the rider faces in an accident, instantly the smart helmet hits the ground and respective sensors detect the movement and tilt of the protective helmet and instantly sending the information about the location of accident to the rider's relatives and the crisis contact numbers which are introduced in the smart helmet respective device. So this project finding will ensure safe bike journey and improve safe commercial bike services in Bangladesh.

Keywords: smart helmet, GSM, GPS, bike, biker accident

Procedia PDF Downloads 82

Authors: Gizem Kodak

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The Strait of Çanakkale, together with the Strait of Istanbul and the Sea of Marmara, form the Turkish Straits System. In other words, the Strait of Çanakkale is the southern gate of the system that connects the Black Sea countries with the other countries of the world. Due to the heavy maritime traffic, it is important to scientifically examine the accident characteristics in the region. In particular, the results indicated by the descriptive statistics are of critical importance in order to strengthen the safety of navigation. At this point, exploratory data analysis offers strategic outputs in terms of defining the problem and knowing the strengths and weaknesses against possible accident risk. The study aims to determine the accident characteristics in the Strait of Çanakkale with temporal and spatial analysis of historical data, using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) as the research method. The study's results will reveal the general characteristics of maritime accidents in the region and form the infrastructure for future studies. Therefore, the text provides a clear description of the research goals and methodology, and the study's contributions are well-defined.

Keywords: maritime accidents, EDA, Strait of Çanakkale, navigational safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 64

Authors: Arash Yousefi

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Experts suggest that relying exclusively on parameters to convey a situation or establish a condition may not be adequate. Assessing and appraising incidents in a system based on accident parameters, such as accident frequency, lost workdays, or fatalities, may not always be precise and occasionally erroneous. The frequency rate of accidents is a metric that assesses the correlation between the number of accidents causing work-time loss due to injuries and the total working hours of personnel over a year. Traditionally, this has been calculated based on one million working hours, but the American Occupational Safety and Health Organization has updated its standards. The new coefficient of 200/000 working hours is now used to compute the frequency rate of accidents. It's crucial to ensure that the total working hours of employees are equally represented when calculating individual event and incident numbers. The accident severity rate is a metric used to determine the amount of time lost or wasted during a given period, often a year, in relation to the total number of working hours. It measures the percentage of work hours lost or wasted compared to the total number of useful working hours, which provides valuable insight into the number of days lost or wasted due to work-related incidents for each working hour. Calculating the severity of an incident can be difficult if a worker suffers permanent disability or death. To determine lost days, coefficients specified in the "tables of days equivalent to OSHA or ANSI standards" for disabling injuries are used. The accident frequency coefficient denotes the rate at which accidents occur, while the accident severity coefficient specifies the extent of damage and injury caused by these accidents. These coefficients are crucial in accurately assessing the magnitude and impact of accidents.

Keywords: incidents, safety, analysis, frequency, severity, injuries, determine

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Naoko Kanazawa, Tran Thi Bich Nguyet, Yoshiyuki Higuchi, Hideki Hamada

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Construction machines’ condition is maintained with the regularly inspections, preventive maintenance and repairs by skillful and qualified engineers. If an accident occurs, there will be enormous influence such as human injuries, delays in the term of construction. In this paper, we revealed the characteristics such as inspection, maintenance and repair works for construction machines, and we also clarified the trends of employment injuries based on actual data by simple and cross tabulation methods, and investigated the relation with their works, injured body parts and accident types.

Keywords: construction machines, employment injuries, maintenance and repair, safety and health

Procedia PDF Downloads 274

Authors: Katalina Grigorova, Kaloyan Mironov

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The paper focuses on the benefits of business process modeling. Although this discipline is developing for many years, there is still necessity of creating new opportunities to meet the ever-increasing users’ needs. Because one of these needs is related to the conversion of business process models from one standard to another, the authors have developed a converter between BPMN and EPC standards using workflow patterns as intermediate tool. Nowadays there are too many systems for business process modeling. The variety of output formats is almost the same as the systems themselves. This diversity additionally hampers the conversion of the models. The presented study is aimed at discussing problems due to differences in the output formats of various modeling environments.

Keywords: business process modeling, business process modeling standards, workflow patterns, converting models

Procedia PDF Downloads 561

Authors: Margareth E. Bolla, Ludfi Djakfar, Achmad Wicaksono

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The increase in the number of motorcycle users in Indonesia is in line with the increase in accidents involving motorcycles. Several previous studies have shown that humans are the biggest factor causing accidents, and the driver's personality factor will affect his behavior on the road. This study was conducted to see how a person's personality traits will affect the probability of having an accident while driving. The Big Five Inventory (BFI) questionnaire and the Honda Riding Trainer (HRT) simulator were used as measuring tools, while the analysis carried out was logistic regression analysis. The results of the descriptive analysis of the respondent's personality based on the BFI show that the majority of drivers have the dominant character of neuroticism (34%), while the smallest group is the driver with the dominant type of openness character (6%). The percentage of motorists who were not involved in an accident was 54%. The results of the logistic regression analysis form a mathematical model as follows Y = -3.852 - 0.288 X1 + 0.596 X2 + 0.429 X3 - 0.386 X4 - 0.094 X5 + 0.436 X6 + 0.162 X7, where the results of hypothesis testing indicate that the variables openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, neuroticism, history of traffic accidents and age at starting driving did not have a significant effect on the probability of a motorcyclist being involved in an accident.

Keywords: accidents, BFI, probability, simulator

Procedia PDF Downloads 122

Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Vanelslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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Nowadays maritime transport is a key element in international trade and global supply chain. Economies of scale in transporting goods are one of the most attractive elements of using ships. Without maritime transport, almost no globalization of economics can be imagined. Within maritime transport, ports are the interface between lands and see. Even though using ships help cargo owners to have a competitive margin but an accident in port during loading or unloading or even moving cargoes within the terminal can diminish such margin. Statistics shows that due to the high-speed notion of activities within ports, collision accidents are the most common type of accidents. To mitigate such accidents, the appropriate risk exposures have to be defined and calculate, later on risk probabilities can be determined for each type of accident, i.e. fatal, severe, moderate and minor ones. Having such risk probabilities help managers to define the effectiveness of each collision risk control option. This research defined travelled distance as main collision risk exposure in container terminals, taking all the related items into consideration, it was calculated for Shahid Rajae container terminals. Following this finding, collision risk probabilities were computed.

Keywords: collision accident, container terminal, maritime transport, risk exposure

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Authors: Amirhosein Moonesi Shabestary, Eckhard Krepper, Dirk Lucas

Abstract:

The current PhD project comprises CFD-modeling and simulation of condensation and heat transfer inside horizontal pipes. Condensation plays an important role in emergency cooling systems of reactors. The emergency cooling system consists of inclined horizontal pipes which are immersed in a tank of subcooled water. In the case of an accident the water level in the core is decreasing, steam comes in the emergency pipes, and due to the subcooled water around the pipe, this steam will start to condense. These horizontal pipes act as a strong heat sink which is responsible for a quick depressurization of the reactor core when any accident happens. This project is defined in order to model all these processes which happening in the emergency cooling systems. The most focus of the project is on detection of different morphologies such as annular flow, stratified flow, slug flow and plug flow. This project is an ongoing project which has been started 1 year ago in Helmholtz Zentrum Dresden Rossendorf (HZDR), Fluid Dynamics department. In HZDR most in cooperation with ANSYS different models are developed for modeling multiphase flows. Inhomogeneous MUSIG model considers the bubble size distribution and is used for modeling small-scaled dispersed gas phase. AIAD (Algebraic Interfacial Area Density Model) is developed for detection of the local morphology and corresponding switch between them. The recent model is GENTOP combines both concepts. GENTOP is able to simulate co-existing large-scaled (continuous) and small-scaled (polydispersed) structures. All these models are validated for adiabatic cases without any phase change. Therefore, the start point of the current PhD project is using the available models and trying to integrate phase transition and wall condensing models into them. In order to simplify the idea of condensation inside horizontal tubes, 3 steps have been defined. The first step is the investigation of condensation inside a horizontal tube by considering only direct contact condensation (DCC) and neglect wall condensation. Therefore, the inlet of the pipe is considered to be annular flow. In this step, AIAD model is used in order to detect the interface. The second step is the extension of the model to consider wall condensation as well which is closer to the reality. In this step, the inlet is pure steam, and due to the wall condensation, a liquid film occurs near the wall which leads to annular flow. The last step will be modeling of different morphologies which are occurring inside the tube during the condensation via using GENTOP model. By using GENTOP, the dispersed phase is able to be considered and simulated. Finally, the results of the simulations will be validated by experimental data which will be available also in HZDR.

Keywords: wall condensation, direct contact condensation, AIAD model, morphology detection

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Authors: Shengjun Zhang, Xu Cheng, Feng Shen

Abstract:

The passive containment cooling system (PCCS) is widely used in the advanced nuclear reactor in case of the loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and the main steam line break accident (MSLB). The internal heat exchanger is one of the most important equipment in the PCCS and its heat transfer characteristic determines the performance of the system. In this investigation, a theoretical model is presented for predicting the heat and mass transfer which accompanies condensation. The conduction through the liquid condensate is considered and the interface temperature is defined by iteration. The parameter in the correlation to describe the suction effect should be further determined through experimental data.

Keywords: non-condensable gas, condensation, heat transfer coefficient, heat and mass transfer analogy

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

Abstract:

Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Ching Louis Liu, Edmund Kazmierczak, Tim Miller

Abstract:

Safety analysis for multi-agent systems is complicated by the, potentially nonlinear, interactions between agents. This paper proposes a method for analyzing the safety of multi-agent systems by explicitly focusing on interactions and the accident data of systems that are similar in structure and function to the system being analyzed. The method creates a Bayesian network using the accident data from similar systems. A feature of our method is that the events in accident data are labeled with HAZOP guide words. Our method uses an Ontology to abstract away from the details of a multi-agent implementation. Using the ontology, our methods then constructs an “Interaction Map,” a graphical representation of the patterns of interactions between agents and other artifacts. Interaction maps combined with statistical data from accidents and the HAZOP classifications of events can be converted into a Bayesian Network. Bayesian networks allow designers to explore “what it” scenarios and make design trade-offs that maintain safety. We show how to use the Bayesian networks, and the interaction maps to improve multi-agent system designs.

Keywords: multi-agent system, safety analysis, safety model, integration map

Procedia PDF Downloads 395