Search results for: uncertain demand

Authors: Amrei Voelkner, Nils Peters, Thomas Mannheim

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The worldwide exponential growth of the population and the simultaneous increasing food production requires the strategic realization of sustainable and improved cultivation systems to ensure the fertility of arable land and to guarantee the food supply for the whole world. To fulfill this target, large quantities of fertilizers have to be applied to the field, but the long-term environmental impacts remain uncertain. Thus, a combined system would be necessary to increase the nutrient availability for plants while reducing nutrient losses (e.g. NO3- by leaching) to the environment. To enhance the nutrient efficiency, polymer coated fertilizer with a controlled release behavior have been developed. This kind of fertilizer ensures a delayed release of nutrients to synchronize the nutrient supply with the demand of different crops. In the last decades, research focused primarily on semi-permeable polyurethane coatings, which remain in the soil for a long period after the complete solvation of the fertilizer core. Within the implementation of the new European Regulation Directive the replacement of non-degradable synthetic polymers by degradable coatings is necessary. It was, therefore, the objective of this study to develop a total biodegradable polymer (to CO2 and H2O) coating according to ISO 17556 and to compare the retarding effect of the biodegradable coatings with commercially available non-degradable products. To investigate the effect of ten selected coated urea fertilizer on the yield of annual ryegrass and maize, the fresh and dry mass, the percentage of total nitrogen and main nutrients were analyzed in greenhouse experiments in sixfold replications using near-infrared spectroscopy. For the experiments, a homogenized and air-dried loamy sand (Cambic Luvisol) was equipped with a basic fertilization of P, K, Mg and S. To investigate the effect of nitrogen level increase, three levels (80%, 100%, 120%) were established, whereas the impact of CRF granules was determined using a N-level of 100%. Additionally, leaching of NO3- from pots planted with annual ryegrass was examined to evaluate the retention capacity of urea by the polymer coating. For this, leachate from Kick-Brauckmann-Pots was collected daily and analyzed for total nitrogen, NO3- and NH4+ in twofold repetition once a week using near-infrared spectroscopy. We summarize from the results that the coated fertilizer have a clear impact on the yield of annual ryegrass and maize. Compared to the control, an increase of fresh and dry mass could be recognized. Partially, the non-degradable coatings showed a retarding effect for a longer period, which was however reflected by a lower fresh and dry mass. It was ascertained that the percentage of leached-out nitrate could be reduced markedly. As a conclusion, it could be pointed out that the impact of coated fertilizer of all polymer types might contribute to a reduction of negative environmental impacts in addition to their fertilizing effect.

Keywords: biodegradable polymers, coating, enhanced efficiency fertilizers, nitrate leaching

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Authors: Raweyah Al-Sedairawi

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While high-rise housing detained massive negative connotations on several societies and well-being, this typology did deliver housing demand efficiently. Despite its adverse reference due to declining precedents, high-rise housing is still in global demand. Yet the suitability of this typology is still questioned. In this research, the suitability of high-rise housing as a socio-culturally sustainable solution to meet housing demands will be examined. By questioning what is the potential of high-rise housing as a socio-culturally sustainable solution for housing demands, the research will examine some high-rise housing practices. Through reviewing the literature on the origins of high-rise housing, how and why they were developed, some unsuccessful cases, and some successful cases, with the identification of factors for successful high-rise living. Thus, the research groundings will materialize from existing patterns of housing demands. Whilst most of the literature covers the housing market from an economic, real estate, and political perspective, there is less amount that discloses occupants’ reactions towards this typology and its appropriateness for the reason that income controls individuals’ choices. To bridge the gap, the prospect of implementing the study would be effective. This will be applied through a mixture of a qualitative and a quantitative methodology by conducting questionnaires and focus groups on existing cases of high-net-worth residential towers.

Keywords: architecture, behaviors, high-rise, socio-cultural, sustainability

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Authors: Hyeongbok Kim, Lingling Zhao, Xiaohong Su

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Deep reinforcement learning has been applied to address various problems in robotics, such as autonomous driving and unmanned aerial vehicle. However, because of the sparse reward penalty for a collision with obstacles during the navigation mission, the agent fails to learn the optimal policy or requires a long time for convergence. Therefore, using obstacles and enemy agents, in this paper, we present a curriculum-based boost learning method to effectively train compound skills during multi-agent reinforcement learning. First, to enable the agents to solve challenging tasks, we gradually increased learning difficulties by adjusting reward shaping instead of constructing different learning environments. Then, in a benchmark environment with static obstacles and moving enemy agents, the experimental results showed that the proposed curriculum learning strategy enhanced cooperative navigation and compound collision avoidance skills in uncertain environments while improving learning efficiency.

Keywords: curriculum learning, hard exploration, multi-agent reinforcement learning, robotic navigation, sparse reward

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Authors: Saba Arif, Anam Nadeem, Roman Kalvin, Muzaffar Ali, Burhan Ali, Juntakan Taweekun

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Globally transportation sector accounts for around 25% of energy demand and nearly 62% of oil consumed. Therefore, new energy sources are required to introduce for this huge demand replenishment of depleting conventional energy sources. Currently, biofuels such as Jatropha trees as an energy carrier for transportation sector are being utilized effectively round the globe. However, climate conditions at low altitudes with an average annual temperature above 20 degrees Celsius and rainfall of 300-1000mm are considered the most suitable environment for the efficient growth of Jatropha trees. The current study is providing a theoretical survey-based analysis to investigate the effect of rate of cultivation of jatropha trees on the reduction of fuel prices and its environmental benefits. The resulted study shows that jatropha tree’s 100 kg seeds give 80kg oil and the conversion process cost is very small as 890 PKR. Moreover, the extraction of oil from Jatropha tree is tax-free compared to other fuels. The analysis proved very essential for potential assessment of Jatropha regarding future energy fuel for transportation sector at global level. Additionally, it can be very beneficial for increment in the total amount of transportation fuel in Pakistan.

Keywords: jatropha tree, environmental impact, energy contents, theoretical survey

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Authors: V. S. S. Kumar, B. Vikram

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The development of effective decision support tools that adopted in the construction industry is vital in the world we live in today, since it can lead to substantial cost reduction and efficient resource consumption. Solving the time-cost trade off problems and its related variants is at the heart of scientific research for optimizing construction planning problems. In general, the classical optimization techniques have difficulties in dealing with TCT problems. One of the main reasons of their failure is that they can easily be entrapped in local minima. This paper presents an investigation on the application of meta-heuristic techniques to two particular variants of the time-cost trade of analysis, the time-cost trade off problem (TCT), and time-cost trade off optimization problem (TCO). In first problem, the total project cost should be minimized, and in the second problem, the total project cost and total project duration should be minimized simultaneously. Finally it is expected that, the optimization models developed in this paper will contribute significantly for efficient planning and management of construction project.

Keywords: fuzzy sets, uncertainty, optimization, time cost trade off problems

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Authors: Jefferson Hernandez, Juan Padilla

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Estimation of price elasticity of demand is a valuable tool for the task of price settling. Given its relevance, it is an active field for microeconomic and statistical research. Price elasticity in the industry of oil and gas, in particular for fuels sold in gas stations, has shown to be a challenging topic given the market and state restrictions, and underlying correlations structures between the types of fuels sold by the same gas station. This paper explores the Lotka-Volterra model for the problem for price elasticity estimation in the context of fuels; in addition, it is introduced multivariate random effects with the purpose of dealing with errors, e.g., measurement or missing data errors. In order to model the underlying correlation structures, the Inverse-Wishart, Hierarchical Half-t and LKJ distributions are studied. Here, the Bayesian paradigm through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for model estimation is considered. Simulation studies covering a wide range of situations were performed in order to evaluate parameter recovery for the proposed models and algorithms. Results revealed that the proposed algorithms recovered quite well all model parameters. Also, a real data set analysis was performed in order to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: price elasticity, volume, correlation structures, Bayesian models

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Authors: José M Martín-Moreno, Rafaela Pérez, Jesús Ruiz

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In this paper we use a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (DSGE) for the Spanish economy to search for a deeper characterization of the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations throughout the period 1970-2008. In order to do this, we distinguish between tradable and non-tradable goods to take into account the fact that the presence of non-tradable goods in this economy is one of the largest in the world. We estimate a DSGE model with supply and demand shocks (sectorial productivity, public spending, international real interest rate and preferences) using Kalman Filter techniques. We find the following results. First of all, our variance decomposition analysis suggests that 1) the preference shock basically accounts for private consumption volatility, 2) the idiosyncratic productivity shock accounts for non-tradable output volatility, and 3) the sectorial productivity shock along with the international interest rate both greatly account for tradable output. Secondly, the model closely replicates the time path observed in the data for the Spanish economy and finally, the model captures the main cyclical qualitative features of this economy reasonably well.

Keywords: business cycle, DSGE models, Kalman filter estimation, small open economy

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Authors: G. Sava, I. Popa, T. Sava, A. Ion, M. Ilie, C. Manailescu, A. Robu

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At the RoAMS laboratory in Bucharest we have looked for a head-to-head meeting between AMS radiocarbon dating and dendrochronology dating, aiming to point out and explain any differences or similarities that might appear between their output results. As a subject of this investigation, we have fixed our attention on a sequence of tree rings spanning on a period of 700 years, starting with 1000 AD. The samples were collected from the northern Romanian territory within Moldavia region, and were provided by the ‘Marin Dracea - National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry’. All the 23 single ring wood samples were radiocarbon dated using alpha-cellulose extraction, followed by graphitization in an AGE3 installation. A wiggle matching procedure was applied to reduce the radiocarbon uncertainties for the calibrated ages. The results showed a good agreement on 3 out of 4 wood cores, the age-shifting of one of the wood cores being interpreted as an uncertain dendrochronology matching, which was further corrected.

Keywords: wiggle matching, tree-ring radiocarbon dating, dendrochronology, AMS radiocarbon dating, radiocarbon dating in Romania

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Authors: Héctor Rivera-Gómez, Eva Selene Hernández-Gress, Oscar Montaño-Arango, Jose Ramon Corona-Armenta

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This research studies the joint production, maintenance and subcontracting control policy for an unreliable deteriorating manufacturing system. Production activities are controlled by a derivation of the Hedging Point Policy, and given that the system is subject to deterioration, it reduces progressively its capacity to satisfy product demand. Multiple deterioration effects are considered, reflected mainly in the quality of the parts produced and the reliability of the machine. Subcontracting is available as support to satisfy product demand; also overhaul maintenance can be conducted to reduce the effects of deterioration. The main objective of the research is to determine simultaneously the production, maintenance and subcontracting rate which minimize the total incurred cost. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed and solved through a simulation-based approach composed of statistical analysis and optimization with the response surface methodology. The obtained results highlight the strong interactions between production, deterioration and quality which justify the development of an integrated model. A numerical example and a sensitivity analysis are presented to validate our results.

Keywords: subcontracting, optimal control, deterioration, simulation, production planning

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Authors: Sam Solaimani, Jack A. A. van der Veen, Mehdi Latifi

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Considering the increasingly VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) business market, innovation is the name of the game in contemporary business. Innovation is not solely created within the organization itself; its 'network environment' appears to be equally important for innovation. There are, at least, two streams of literature that emphasize the idea of using the extended organization to foster innovation capability, namely, Supply Chain Collaboration (SCC) (also rooted in the Lean philosophy) and Open Innovation (OI). Remarkably, these two concepts are still considered as being totally different in the sense that these appear in different streams of literature and applying different concepts in pursuing the same purposes. This paper explores the commonalities between the two concepts in order to conceptually further our understanding of how OI can effectively be applied in Supply Chain networks. Drawing on available literature in OI, SCC and Lean, the paper concludes with five principles that help firms to contextualize the implementation of OI to the peculiar setting of SC. Theoretically, the present paper aims at contributing to the relatively under-researched theme of Supply Chain Innovation. More in practical terms, the paper provides OI and SCC communities with a workable know-how to seize on and sustain OI initiatives.

Keywords: lean philosophy, open innovation, supply chain collaboration, supply chain management

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Authors: Armando Cartenì, Ilaria Henke

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Recently, the Italian government has approved a new law for public contracts and has been laying the groundwork for restarting a planning phase. The government has adopted the indications given by the European Commission regarding the estimation of the external costs within the Cost-Benefit Analysis, and has been approved the ‘Guidelines for assessment of Investment Projects’. In compliance with the new Italian law, the aim of this research was to perform a feasibility study applying quantitative methods regarding the revamping of an Italian tourist railway line. A Cost-Benefit Analysis was performed starting from the quantification of the passengers’ demand potentially interested in using the revamped rail services. The benefits due to the external costs reduction were also estimated (quantified) in terms of variations (with respect to the not project scenario): climate change, air pollution, noises, congestion, and accidents. Estimations results have been proposed in terms of the Measure of Effectiveness underlying a positive Net Present Value equal to about 27 million of Euros, an Internal Rate of Return much greater the discount rate, a benefit/cost ratio equal to 2 and a PayBack Period of 15 years.

Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, evaluation analysis, demand management, external cost, transport planning, quality

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Authors: Junjie Peng, Jinbao Chen, Shuai Kong, Danxu Liu

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On the basis of traditional resource allocation strategies, the usage of resources on physical servers in cloud data center is great uncertain. It will cause waste of resources if the assignment of tasks is not enough. On the contrary, it will cause overload if the assignment of tasks is too much. This is especially obvious when the applications are the same type because of its resource preferences. Considering CPU intensive application is one of the most common types of application in the cloud, we studied the optimization strategy for CPU intensive applications on the same server. We used resource preferences to analyze the case that multiple CPU intensive applications run simultaneously, and put forward a model which can predict the execution time for CPU intensive applications which run simultaneously. Based on the prediction model, we proposed the method to select the appropriate number of applications for a machine. Experiments show that the model can predict the execution time accurately for CPU intensive applications. To improve the execution efficiency of applications, we propose a scheduling model based on priority for CPU intensive applications. Extensive experiments verify the validity of the scheduling model.

Keywords: cloud computing, CPU intensive applications, resource optimization, strategy

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Authors: Margarita Gáfaro, Karelys Guzmán, Paola Poveda

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This paper establishes the theoretical aspects that explain the barriers to accessing credit for small agricultural producers in developing countries and identifies successful policy experiences to mitigate them. We will test two hypotheses. The first one is that information asymmetries, high transaction costs and high-risk exposure limit the supply of credit to small agricultural producers in developing countries. The second hypothesis is that low levels of financial education and productivity and high uncertainty about the returns of agricultural activity limit the demand for credit. To test these hypotheses, a review of the theoretical and empirical literature on access to rural credit in developing countries will be carried out. The first part of this review focuses on theoretical models that incorporate information asymmetries in the credit market and analyzes the interaction between these asymmetries and the characteristics of the agricultural sector in developing countries. Some of the characteristics we will focus on are the absence of collateral, the underdevelopment of the judicial systems and insurance markets, and the high dependence on climatic factors of production technologies. The second part of this review focuses on the determinants of credit demand by small agricultural producers, including the profitability of productive projects, security conditions, risk aversion or loss, financial education, and cognitive biases, among others. There are policies that focus on resolving these supply and demand constraints and managing to improve credit access. Therefore, another objective of this paper is to present a review of effective policies that have promoted access to credit for smallholders in the world. For this, information available in policy documents will be collected. This information will be complemented by interviews with officials in charge of the design and execution of these policies in a subset of selected countries. The information collected will be analyzed in light of the conceptual framework proposed in the first two parts of this section. The barriers to access to credit that each policy attempts to resolve and the factors that could explain its effectiveness will be identified.

Keywords: agricultural economics, credit access, smallholder, developing countries

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Authors: Mohammed Elsayed Lotfy Elsayed Abouzeid, Tomonobu Senjyu

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A novel multi-objective park and ride control approach is presented in this research. Park and ride will encourage the owners of the vehicles to leave their cars in the nearest points (on the edges of the crowded cities) and use public transportation facilities (train, bus, metro, or mon-rail) to reach their work inside the crowded city. The proposed control scheme is used to design electric vehicle charging stations (EVCS) to charge 1000 electric vehicles (EV) during their owners' work time. Cairo, Egypt is used as a case study. Photovoltaic (PV) and battery energy storage system (BESS) are used to meet the EVCS demand. Two multi-objective optimization techniques (MOGA and epsilon-MOGA) are utilized to get the optimal sizes of PV and BESS so as to meet the load demand and minimize the total life cycle cost. Detailed analysis and comparison are held to investigate the performance of the proposed control scheme using MATLAB.

Keywords: Battery Energy Storage System, Electric Vehicle, Park and Ride, Photovoltaic, Multi-objective

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Authors: Marvin Ricardo Awarab

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There has never been a greater need for telecom services. The Internet of Things (IoT), 5G networking, and edge computing are the driving forces behind this increased demand. The fierce demand offers communications service providers significant income opportunities. The telecom sector is centered on automation, and realizing a digital operation that functions as a real-time business will be crucial for the industry as a whole. Automation in telecom refers to the application of technology to create a more effective, quick, and scalable alternative to the conventional method of operating the telecom industry. With the promotion of 5G and the Internet of Things (IoT), telecom companies will continue to invest extensively in telecom automation technology. Automation offers benefits in the telecom industry; developing countries such as Namibia may not fully tap into such benefits because of the lack of funds and infrastructural resources to invest in automation. This paper fully investigates the benefits of automation in the telecom industry. Furthermore, the paper identifies hiccups that developing countries such as Namibia face in their quest to fully introduce automation in the telecom industry. Additionally, the paper proposes possible avenues that Namibia, as a developing country, adopt investing in automation infrastructural resources with the aim of reaping the full benefits of automation in the telecom industry.

Keywords: automation, development, internet, internet of things, network, telecom, telecommunications policy, 5G

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Authors: Pello Alfonso-Muniozguren, Madeleine Bussemaker, Devendra Saroj, Judy Lee

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Wastewater treatment is becoming a worldwide concern due to new and tighter environmental regulations, and the increasing need for fresh water for the exponentially growing population. The meat industry has one of the highest consumption of water producing up to 10 times more polluted (BOD) wastewaters in comparison to domestic sewage. Therefore, suitable wastewater treatment methods are required to ensure the wastewater quality meet regulations before discharge. In the present study, a combined lab scale activated sludge-sonication system was used to treat pre-treated abattoir wastewater. A hydraulic retention time of 24 hours and a solid retention time of 13 days were used for the activated sludge process and using ultrasound as tertiary treatment. Different ultrasonic frequencies, powers and sonication times were applied to the samples and results were analysed for chemical oxygen demand (COD), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total suspended solids, pH, total coliforms and total viable counts. Additionally, both mechanical and chemical effects of ultrasound were quantified for organic matter removal (COD and BOD) and disinfection (microorganism inactivation) using different techniques such as aluminum foil pitting, flow cytometry, and KI dosimetry.

Keywords: abattoir wastewater, ultrasound, wastewater treatment, water disinfection

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Authors: Taufik Rizkiandi, Teuku Yuri M. Zagloel, Andri Dwi Setiawan

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Distribution and growth in the transportation and warehousing business sector decreased by 15,04%. There was a decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contribution level from rank 7 of 4,41% in 2019 to 3,81% in rank 8 in 2020. A decline in the transportation and warehousing business sector contributes to GDP, resulting in oil and gas companies implementing an efficient supply chain strategy to ensure the availability of goods, especially lubricants. Fluctuating demand for lubricants and warehouse service time limits are essential things that are taken into account in determining an efficient route. Add depots points as a solution so that demand for lubricants is fulfilled (not stock out). However, adding a depot will increase operating costs and storage costs. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the addition of depots using the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (CVRPTW). This research case study was conducted at an oil and gas company that produces lubricants from 2019 to 2021. The study results obtained the optimal route and the addition of a depot with a minimum additional cost. The total cost remains efficient with the addition of a depot when compared to one depot from Jakarta.

Keywords: CVRPTW, optimal route, depot, tabu search algorithm

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Authors: Reina Kawase

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Japan set the goal of 80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050. To consider countermeasures for reducing GHG emission, the production estimation of energy intensive materials, such as steel, is essential. About 50% of steel production is exported in Japan, so it is necessary to consider steel production including export. Steel productions from 2005-2050 in Japan were estimated under various global assumptions based on combination of scenarios such as goods trade scenarios and steel making process selection scenarios. Process selection scenarios decide volume of steel production by process (basic oxygen furnace and electric arc furnace) with considering steel consumption projection, supply-demand balance of steel, and scrap surplus. The range of steel production by process was analyzed. Maximum steel production was estimated under the scenario which consumes scrap in domestic steel production at maximum level. In 2035, steel production reaches 149 million ton because of increase in electric arc furnace steel. However, it decreases towards 2050 and amounts to 120 million ton, which is almost same as a current level. Minimum steel production is under the scenario which assumes technology progress in steel making and supply-demand balance consideration in each region. Steel production decreases from base year and is 44 million ton in 2050.

Keywords: goods trade scenario, steel making process selection scenario, steel production, global warming

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Authors: Jesika A. Walker, Mohammed Aswad, Guy Lacroix, Denis Cousineau

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There is a fundamental disconnect between the experience of time passing and the chronometric units by which time is quantified. Specifically, there appears to be no relationship between the passage of time judgments (PoTJs) and verbal duration estimates at short durations (e.g., < 2000 milliseconds). When a duration is longer than several minutes, however, evidence suggests that a slower feeling of time passing is predictive of overestimation. Might the length of a task moderate the relation between PoTJs and duration estimates? Similarly, the estimation paradigm (prospective vs. retrospective) and the mental effort demanded of a task (task demand) have both been found to influence duration estimates. However, only a handful of experiments have investigated these effects for tasks of long durations, and the results have been mixed. Thus, might the length of a task also moderate the effects of the estimation paradigm and task demand on duration estimates? To investigate these questions, 273 participants performed either an easy or difficult visual and memory search task for either eight or 58 minutes, under prospective or retrospective instructions. Afterward, participants provided a duration estimate in minutes, followed by a PoTJ on a Likert scale (1 = very slow, 7 = very fast). A 2 (prospective vs. retrospective) × 2 (eight minutes vs. 58 minutes) × 2 (high vs. low difficulty) between-subjects ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between task demand and task duration on PoTJs, p = .02. Specifically, time felt faster in the more challenging task, but only in the eight-minute condition, p < .01. Duration estimates were transformed into RATIOs (estimate/actual duration) to standardize estimates across durations. An ANOVA revealed a two-way interaction between estimation paradigm and task duration, p = .03. Specifically, participants overestimated the task more if they were given prospective instructions, but only in the eight-minute task. Surprisingly, there was no effect of task difficulty on duration estimates. Thus, the demands of a task may influence ‘feeling of time’ and ‘estimation time’ differently, contributing to the existing theory that these two forms of time judgement rely on separate underlying cognitive mechanisms. Finally, a significant main effect of task duration was found for both PoTJs and duration estimates (ps < .001). Participants underestimated the 58-minute task (m = 42.5 minutes) and overestimated the eight-minute task (m = 10.7 minutes). Yet, they reported the 58-minute task as passing significantly slower on a Likert scale (m = 2.5) compared to the eight-minute task (m = 4.1). In fact, a significant correlation was found between PoTJ and duration estimation (r = .27, p <.001). This experiment thus provides evidence for a compensatory effect at longer durations, in which people underestimate a ‘slow feeling condition and overestimate a ‘fast feeling condition. The results are discussed in relation to heuristics that might alter the relationship between these two variables when conditions range from several minutes up to almost an hour.

Keywords: duration estimates, long durations, passage of time judgements, task demands

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Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

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Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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Authors: Vladimir Korovkin, Albert Park, Evgeny Kaganer

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The paper studies the second-level digital divide (the one defined by the way how digital technology is used in everyday life) between regions of the Russian Federation. The paper offers a systemic review of literature on the measurement of the digital divide; based upon this it suggests a composite Digital Life Index, that captures the complex multi-dimensional character of the phenomenon. The model of the index studies separately the digital supply and demand across seven independent dimensions providing for 14 subindices. The Index is based on Internet-borne data, a distinction from traditional research approaches that rely on official statistics or surveys. Regression analysis is used to determine the relative importance of factors like income, human capital, and policy in determining the digital divide. The result of the analysis suggests that the digital divide is driven more by the differences in demand (defined by consumer competencies) than in supply; the role of income is insignificant, and the quality of human capital is the key determinant of the divide. The paper advances the existing methodological literature on the issue and can also inform practical decision-making regarding the strategies of national and regional digital development.

Keywords: digital transformation, second-level digital divide, composite index, digital policy, regional development, Russia

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Authors: Pouya Taraghi, Yong Li, Nader Yoosef-Ghodsi, Muntaseer Kainat, Samer Adeeb

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Buried pipelines play a crucial role in the transportation of energy products such as oil, gas, and various chemical fluids, ensuring their efficient and safe distribution. However, these pipelines are often susceptible to ground movements caused by geohazards like landslides, fault movements, lateral spreading, and more. Such ground movements can lead to strain-induced failures in pipes, resulting in leaks or explosions, leading to fires, financial losses, environmental contamination, and even loss of human life. Therefore, it is essential to study how buried pipelines respond when traversing geohazard-prone areas to assess the potential impact of ground movement on pipeline design. As such, this study introduces an approach called the Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) to predict the strain demand in inelastic pipes subjected to permanent ground displacement (PGD). This method uses a deep learning framework that does not require training data and makes it feasible to consider more realistic assumptions regarding existing nonlinearities. It leverages the underlying physics described by differential equations to approximate the solution. The study analyzes various scenarios involving different geohazard types, PGD values, and crossing angles, comparing the predictions with results obtained from finite element methods. The findings demonstrate a good agreement between the results of the proposed method and the finite element method, highlighting its potential as a simulation-free, data-free, and meshless alternative. This study paves the way for further advancements, such as the simulation-free reliability assessment of pipes subjected to PGD, as part of ongoing research that leverages the proposed method.

Keywords: strain demand, inelastic pipe, permanent ground displacement, machine learning, physics-informed neural network

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Authors: Farhood Rismanchian, Seong Hyeon Park, Young Hoon Lee

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During the recent years, demand for healthcare services has dramatically increased. As the demand for healthcare services increases, so does the necessity of constructing new healthcare buildings and redesigning and renovating existing ones. Increasing demands necessitate the use of optimization techniques to improve the overall service efficiency in healthcare settings. However, high complexity of care processes remains the major challenge to accomplish this goal. This study proposes a method based on process mining results to address the high complexity of care processes and to find the optimal layout of the various medical centers in an emergency department. ProM framework is used to discover clinical pathway patterns and relationship between activities. Sequence clustering plug-in is used to remove infrequent events and to derive the process model in the form of Markov chain. The process mining results served as an input for the next phase which consists of the development of the optimization model. Comparison of the current ED design with the one obtained from the proposed method indicated that a carefully designed layout can significantly decrease the distances that patients must travel.

Keywords: Mixed Integer programming, Facility layout problem, Process Mining, Healthcare Operation Management

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Authors: S. M. Ali, A. Salam Khan, A. U. Khan, M. Tariq, M. S. Hussain, B. A. Abbasi, I. Hussain, U. Farid

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Environment and surrounding plays a pivotal rule in structuring life-style of the consumers. Living standards intern effect the energy consumption of the consumers. In smart grid paradigm, climate drifts, weather parameter and green environmental directly relates to the energy profiles of the various consumers, such as residential, commercial and industrial. Considering above factors helps policy in shaping utility load curves and optimal management of demand and supply. Thus, there is a pressing need to develop correlation models of load and weather parameters and critical analysis of the factors effecting energy profiles of smart grid consumers. In this paper, we elaborated various environment and weather parameter factors effecting demand of consumers. Moreover, we developed correlation models, such as Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, an inter-relation between dependent (load) parameter and independent (weather) parameters. Furthermore, we validated our discussion with real-time data of Texas State. The numerical simulations proved the effective relation of climatic drifts with energy consumption of smart grid consumers.

Keywords: climatic drifts, correlation analysis, energy consumption, smart grid, weather parameter

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Authors: Shrikant Randhavane, Anjali Khambete

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Use of Pesticides is vital in attaining food security and protection from harmful pests and insects in living environment. Chlorpyrifos, an organophosphate pesticide is widely used worldwide for various purposes. Due to its wide use and applications, its residues are found in environmental matrices and persist in nature for long duration of time. This has an adverse effect on human, aquatic and living bodies. Use of different methodologies is need of an hour to treat such type of recalcitrant compound. The paper focuses on Hydrodynamic Cavitation (HC), a hybrid Advanced Oxidation Potential (AOP) method to degrade Chlorpyrifos in aqueous water. Obtained results show that optimum inlet pressure of 5 bars gave maximum degradation of 99.25% for lower concentration and 87.14% for higher concentration Chlorpyrifos solution in 1 hour treatment time. Also, with known initial concentrations, comparing treatment time with optimum pressure of 5 bars, degradation efficiency increases with Hydrodynamic Cavitation. The potential application of HC in removal of Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) from real effluent with venturi as cavitating device reveals around 40% COD removal with 1 hour of treatment time.

Keywords: advanced oxidation potential, cavitation, chlorpyrifos, COD

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Authors: M. Boukhrouk, R. Ed-Dali

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Outbound tourism in Morocco, as in the majority of developing countries, reveals some of the aspects of inequality between the north and the south. Considered by some researchers as one of the facets of the development crisis, access to tourism and especially international tourism is a chance for a small minority with financial means, while the vast portions of the population dream rather of immigrating to a developed country for the sake of improving their standard of living. The right to travel is also limited by visa requirements, procedures in host countries, security and technical measures and creates discrimination in the practice of tourism. These conditions do not seem to be favorable to the democratization of the practice of international tourism for the populations of the southern countries. This paper is a contribution to the reading of the trends of outbound tourism in developing countries through the example of Morocco. It highlights the different aspects of Moroccan outbound tourism, destinations and the behavior of tourists through an analysis of the offer of a sample of 50 travel agencies. In the same vein, it offers a reading grid of the possibilities offered for the development of outbound tourism and the various existing obstacles to the democratization of international outbound tourism in the southern countries. This reading reveals the transformation in the behavior of Moroccan international tourists as well as the profound changes in Moroccan society, through a model of statistical analysis.

Keywords: demand, Hajj, Morocco, outbound tourism, tendency, Umrah

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Authors: D. Mokatsanyane, J. Jansen Van Rensburg

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This paper analyses the influence and impact of COVID-19 on major agricultural commodity prices in South Africa. According to a World Bank report, the agricultural sector in South Africa has been unable to reduce the domestic food crisis that has been occurring over the past years, hence the increased rate of poverty, which is currently at 55.5 percent as of April 2020. Despite the significance of this sector, empirical findings concluded that the agricultural sector now accounts for 1.88 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product (GDP). Suggesting that the agricultural sector's contribution to the economy has diminished. Despite the low contribution to GDP, this primary sector continues to play an essential role in the economy. Over the past years, multiple factors have contributed to the soaring commodities prices, namely, climate shocks, biofuel demand, demand and supply shocks, the exchange rate, speculation in commodity derivative markets, trade restrictions, and economic growth. The COVID-19 outbursts have currently disturbed the supply and demand of staple crops. To address the disruption, the government has exempted the agricultural sector from closure and restrictions on movement. The spread of COVID-19 has caused turmoil all around the world, but mostly in developing countries. According to Statistic South Africa, South Africa's economy decreased by seven percent in 2020. Consequently, this has arguably made the agricultural sector the most affected sector since slumped economic growth negatively impacts food security, trade, farm livelihood, and greenhouse gas emissions. South Africa is sensitive to the fruitfulness of global food chains. Restrictions in trade, reinforced sanitary control systems, and border controls have influenced food availability and prices internationally. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the behavior of agricultural commodity prices pre-and during-COVID to determine the impact of volatility drivers on these crops. Historical secondary data of spot prices for the top five major commodities, namely white maize, yellow maize, wheat, soybeans, and sunflower seeds, are analysed from 01 January 2017 to 1 September 2021. The timeframe was chosen to capture price fluctuations between pre-COVID-19 (01 January 2017 to 23 March 2020) and during-COVID-19 (24 March 2020 to 01 September 2021). The Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) statistical model will be used to measure the influence of price fluctuations. The results reveal that the commodity market has been experiencing volatility at different points. Extremely high volatility is represented during the first quarter of 2020. During this period, there was high uncertainty, and grain prices were very volatile. Despite the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural prices, the demand for these commodities is still existing and decent. During COVID-19, analysis indicates that prices were low and less volatile during the pandemic. The prices and returns of these commodities were low during COVID-19 because of the government's actions to respond to the virus's spread, which collapsed the market demand for food commodities.

Keywords: commodities market, commodity prices, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), Price volatility, SAFEX

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Authors: Milton Jusu

Abstract:

Efforts by the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and its development partners to introduce “modern” aquaculture in Sierra Leone since the 1970s have not been successful. A number of reasons have been hypothesized, including the suggestion that the market infrastructure and demand for farmed fish were inadequate to stimulate large-scale and widespread aquaculture production in the country. We have assessed the size, structure, networks, and opportunities in fish markets using a combination of Participatory Rural Appraisals (PRAs) and questionnaire surveys conducted in a sample of 29 markets (urban, weekly, wholesale, and retail) and two hundred traders. The study showed that the local fish markets were dynamic, with very high variations in demand and supply. The markets sampled supplied between 135.2 and 9947.6 tonnes/year. Mean prices for fresh fish varied between US$1.12 and US$3.89/kg depending on species, with smoked catfish and shrimps commanding prices as high as US$7.4/kg. It is unlikely that marine capture fisheries can increase their current production levels, and these may, in fact, already be over-exploited and declining. Marine fish supplies are particularly low between July and September. More careful attention to the timing of harvests (rainy season, not dry season) and to species (catfish, not tilapia) (could help in the successful adoption of aquaculture.

Keywords: fisheries, aquaculture, marine, fish ponds

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Authors: Qingyu Zhang, Mei Cao

Abstract:

As the environments become increasingly uncertain, firms have attempted to achieve greater supply chain collaboration. Supply chain collaboration can generate significant benefits to its members, e.g., reducing risks and decreasing transaction costs. However, a strong relationship is often related to firm’s culture (e.g., short-term vs. long-term interests). The objective of the study is to explore the effect of long-term oriented culture on product quality in a supply chain. Data was collected through a Web survey of U.S. manufacturing firms. Structural equation modeling (LISREL) was used to analyze the data. The results support the mediating roles of goal congruence and communication in the relationship between long-term orientation and product quality in the supply chain. Goal congruence partially mediates the relationship between long-term orientation and communication; communication completely mediates the relationship between goal congruence and product quality. Without high levels of communication, goal congruence cannot improve product quality in a positive way.

Keywords: communication, long-term orientation, product quality, supply chain

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Authors: Asma Moomal, Zukarnain Zakaria

Abstract:

In this uncertain, highly competitive and hasty moving era, most of the organizations are surviving under the pressure of complex dynamics, fierce competition and many challenges in terms of global talent management within the global market. One key result of these challenges is that the organizations have to be organized and good at handling human capital if they want to gain sustainable and steady success in near future. By keeping in mind the importance of global competition, many human resource (HR) professionals are diagnosing the complexities in managing talent of human capital at global level, especially those of multinational enterprises (MNEs). As, there has been little research in the country regarding identification of the GTM in MNEs, this paper reviewed the relevant literature in order to examine the role of GTM strategies in enhancing the organizational development in the MNEs of Malaysia. The data collection technique used in this study was done through the secondary data resources (i.e. the existing literature analysis). This study contributes to extend our understanding of the impact of GTM on organizational development of MNEs within the country.

Keywords: Global Talent Management (GTM), multinational enterprises (MNEs), organizational development, talent

Procedia PDF Downloads 439