Search results for: uncertain demand

Authors: Hugo Badia

Abstract:

This research answers which is the most suitable transit network structure to serve specific demand requirements in an increasing urban dispersion process. Two main approaches of network design are found in the literature. On the one hand, a traditional answer, widespread in our cities, that develops a high number of lines to connect most of origin-destination pairs by direct trips; an approach based on the idea that users averse to transfers. On the other hand, some authors advocate an alternative design characterized by simple networks where transfer is essential to complete most of trips. To answer which of them is the best option, we use a two-step methodology. First, by means of an analytical model, three basic network structures are compared: a radial scheme, starting point for the other two structures, a direct trip-based network, and a transfer-based one, which represent the two alternative transit network designs. The model optimizes the network configuration with regard to the total cost for each structure. For a scenario of dispersion, the best alternative is the structure with the minimum cost. This dispersion degree is defined in a simple way considering that only a central area attracts all trips. If this area is small, we have a high concentrated mobility pattern; if this area is too large, the city is highly decentralized. In this first step, we can determine the area of applicability for each structure in function to that urban dispersion degree. The analytical results show that a radial structure is suitable when the demand is so centralized, however, when this demand starts to scatter, new transit lines should be implemented to avoid transfers. If the urban dispersion advances, the introduction of more lines is no longer a good alternative, in this case, the best solution is a change of structure, from direct trips to a network based on transfers. The area of applicability of each network strategy is not constant, it depends on the characteristics of demand, city and transport technology. In the second step, we translate analytical results to a real case study by the relationship between the parameters of dispersion of the model and direct measures of dispersion in a real city. Two dimensions of the urban sprawl process are considered: concentration, defined by Gini coefficient, and centralization by area based centralization index. Once it is estimated the real dispersion degree, we are able to identify in which area of applicability the city is located. In summary, from a strategic point of view, we can obtain with this methodology which is the best network design approach for a city, comparing the theoretical results with the real dispersion degree.

Keywords: analytical network design model, network structure, public transport, urban dispersion

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Narges Farokhshad, Milad Molazadeh, Saman Jamalabbasi, Hamed Babaei Giglou, Saeed Bibak

Abstract:

The Persian language is an inflectional subject-object-verb language. This fact makes Persian a more uncertain language. However, using techniques such as Zero-Width Non-Joiner (ZWNJ) recognition, punctuation restoration, and Persian Ezafe construction will lead us to a more understandable and precise language. In most of the works in Persian, these techniques are addressed individually. Despite that, we believe that for text refinement in Persian, all of these tasks are necessary. In this work, we proposed a ViraPart framework that uses embedded ParsBERT in its core for text clarifications. First, used the BERT variant for Persian followed by a classifier layer for classification procedures. Next, we combined models outputs to output cleartext. In the end, the proposed model for ZWNJ recognition, punctuation restoration, and Persian Ezafe construction performs the averaged F1 macro scores of 96.90%, 92.13%, and 98.50%, respectively. Experimental results show that our proposed approach is very effective in text refinement for the Persian language.

Keywords: Persian Ezafe, punctuation, ZWNJ, NLP, ParsBERT, transformers

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Niyati Sharma, Om Anand, Sanjeev Kumar Prasad

Abstract:

Assuming future sale value for any of the organizations is one of the major essential characteristics of tactical development. Walmart Sales Forecasting is the finest illustration to work with as a beginner; subsequently, it has the major retail data set. Walmart uses this sales estimate problem for hiring purposes also. We would like to analyzing how the internal and external effects of one of the largest companies in the US can walk out their Weekly Sales in the future. Demand forecasting is the planned prerequisite of products or services in the imminent on the basis of present and previous data and different stages of the market. Since all associations is facing the anonymous future and we do not distinguish in the future good demand. Hence, through exploring former statistics and recent market statistics, we envisage the forthcoming claim and building of individual goods, which are extra challenging in the near future. As a result of this, we are producing the required products in pursuance of the petition of the souk in advance. We will be using several machine learning models to test the exactness and then lastly, train the whole data by Using linear regression and fitting the training data into it. Accuracy is 8.88%. The extra trees regression model gives the best accuracy of 97.15%.

Keywords: random forest algorithm, linear regression algorithm, extra trees classifier, mean absolute error

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Nathenal Thomas Lambamo

Abstract:

Based on the fact that more than 85% of the labor force and 90% of the export earnings are taken by agriculture in Ethiopia and it can be said that it is the backbone of the overall socio-economic activities in the country. Among the cereal crops that the agriculture sector provides for the country, wheat is the third-ranking one preceding teff and maize. In the present day, wheat is in higher demand related to the expansion of industries that use them as the main ingredient for their products. The local supply of wheat for these companies covers only 35 to 40% and the rest 60 to 65% percent is imported on behalf of potential customers that exhaust the country’s foreign currency reserves. The above facts show that the need for this crop in the country is too high and in reverse, the productivity of the crop is very less because of these reasons. Wheat disease is the most devastating disease that contributes a lot to this unbalance in the demand and supply status of the crop. It reduces both the yield and quality of the crop by 27% on average and up to 37% when it is severe. This study aims to detect the most frequent and degrading wheat diseases, Septoria and Leaf rust, using the most efficiently used subset of machine learning technology, deep learning. As a state of the art, a deep learning class classification technique called Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) has been used to detect diseases and has an accuracy of 99.01% is achieved.

Keywords: septoria, leaf rust, deep learning, CNN

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Aysun Pınarbaşı, Béla Vizvári

Abstract:

The countries are the units that procure the vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. The delivered quantities are huge. The countries must bear the inventory holding cost according to the variation of stock quantities. This cost depends on the speed of the vaccination in the country. This speed is time-dependent. The vaccinated portion of the population can be approximated by the cumulative distribution function of the Cauchy distribution. A model is provided for determining the minimal-cost inventory policy, and its optimality conditions are provided. The model is solved for 20 countries for different numbers of procurements. The results reveal the individual behavior of each country. We provide an inventory policy for the pandemic period for the countries. This paper presents a deterministic model for vaccines with a demand rate variable over time for the countries. It is aimed to provide an analytical model to deal with the minimization of holding cost and develop inventory policies regarding this aim to be used for a variety of perishable products such as vaccines. The saturation process is introduced, and an approximation of the vaccination curve of the countries has been discussed. According to this aspect, a deterministic model for inventory policy has been developed.

Keywords: covid-19, vaccination, inventory policy, bounded total demand, inventory holding cost, cauchy distribution, sigmoid function

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Balasundaram Prasaant, Ploix Stephane, Delinchant Benoit, Muresan Cristian

Abstract:

Hardware in Loop (HIL) testing is done to test and validate a particular product especially in building technology. When it comes to building technology, it is more important to test the products for their efficiency. The test rig in the HIL simulator may contribute to some uncertainties on measured efficiency. The uncertainties include physical uncertainties and scenario-based uncertainties. In this paper, a simple uncertainty analysis framework for an HIL setup is shown considering only the physical uncertainties. The entire modeling of the HIL setup is done in Dymola. The uncertain sources are considered based on available knowledge of the components and also on expert knowledge. For the propagation of uncertainty, Monte Carlo Simulation is used since it is the most reliable and easy to use. In this article it is shown how an HIL setup can be modeled and how uncertainty propagation can be performed on it. Such an approach is not common in building energy analysis.

Keywords: energy in buildings, hardware in loop testing, modelica modelling, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty propagation

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: K. A.Tharanga, K. H. H. Damayanthi

Abstract:

Perception is an epistemological concept discussed in Philosophy. Perception, in other word, vision, is one of the ways that human beings get empirical knowledge after five senses. However, we face innumerable problems when achieving knowledge from perception, and therefore the knowledge gained through perception is uncertain. what we see in the external world is not real. These are the major issues that we face when receiving knowledge through perception. Sometimes there is no physical existence of what we really see. In such cases, the perception is relative. The following frames will be taken into consideration when perception is analyzed illusions and delusions, the figure of a physical object, appearance and the reality of a physical object, time factor, and colour of a physical object. seeing and knowing become vary according to the above conceptual frames. We cannot come to a proper conclusion of what we see in the empirical world. Because the things that we see are not really there. Hence the scientific knowledge which is gained from observation is doubtful. All the factors discussed in science remain in the physical world. There is a leap from ones existence to the existence of a world outside his/her mind. Indeed, one can suppose that what he/she takes to be real is just a massive deception. However, depending on the above facts, if someone begins to doubt about the whole world, it is unavoidable to become his/her view a scepticism or nihilism. This is a certain reality.

Keywords: empirical, perception, sceptisism, nihilism

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Sarbjit Singh, Amit Kumar Lal

Abstract:

In India there is no governing body to control advertisement apart from ASCI due to which most of the companies are targeting children in their advertisements that have a negative impact on their behaviour. The main purpose of this research paper is to find out the impact of the television advertisement on the behaviour of the children as observed and reported by parents. The exploratory research design is adopted by using in-depth interviews with 20 parents in various cities of Punjab on the basis semi-structured interviews a self-administered structured Questionnaire was developed for data collection. Exploratory factor analysis using varimax rotation is used to analyse the data from 100 parents from the conjoint cities of Punjab. (Jalandhar, Amritsar and Ludhiana) The finding suggests that children demand those products which are more advertised. Parents believe that television advertisements are affecting the study of their children. Moreover, the children are becoming more violent, stubborn and rebellious. They try to start copying from the advertisements and indulge in bad habits. Children demand, nag and pester their parents to purchase the advertised product. This research paper would help advertisers to understand children behaviour towards advertisements and more over what should be done to control the negative impact of advertisement on children. Advertisers can also understand the parental perception towards advertisement.

Keywords: advertisement, consumer behaviour, children perception, teen marketing

Procedia PDF Downloads 381

Authors: Aquil Ahmed, Srikant Gupta, Irfan Ali

Abstract:

In this paper, we study a multi-objective capacitated transportation problem (MOCTP) with mixed constraints. This paper is comprised of the modelling and optimisation of an MOCTP in a fuzzy environment in which some goals are fractional and some are linear. In real life application of the fuzzy goal programming (FGP) problem with multiple objectives, it is difficult for the decision maker(s) to determine the goal value of each objective precisely as the goal values are imprecise or uncertain. Also, we developed the concept of linearization of fractional goal for solving the MOCTP. In this paper, imprecision of the parameter is handled by the concept of fuzzy set theory by considering these parameters as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. α-cut approach is used to get the crisp value of the parameters. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the method for solving MOCTP.

Keywords: capacitated transportation problem, multi objective linear programming, multi-objective fractional programming, fuzzy goal programming, fuzzy sets, trapezoidal fuzzy number

Procedia PDF Downloads 434

Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

Abstract:

On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

Procedia PDF Downloads 380

Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu

Abstract:

Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.

Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing

Procedia PDF Downloads 130

Authors: Habib Alshuwaikhat, Nahid Hossain

Abstract:

Residential sector consumes more than half of the produced electricity in Saudi Arabia, and fossil fuel is the main source of energy to meet growing household electricity demand in the Kingdom. Several studies forecasted and expressed concern that unless the domestic energy demand growth is controlled, it will reduce Saudi Arabia’s crude oil export capacity within a decade and the Kingdom is likely to be incapable of exporting crude oil within next three decades. Though the Saudi government has initiated to address the domestic energy demand growth issue, the demand side energy management policies and programs are focused on industrial and commercial sectors. It is apparent that there is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive energy efficiency strategy for addressing efficient energy use in residential sector in the Kingdom. Then again as Saudi Arabia is at its primary stage in addressing energy efficiency issues in its residential sector, there is a scope for the Kingdom to learn from global energy efficiency practices and design its own energy efficiency policies and programs. However, in order to do that sustainable, it is essential to address local contexts of energy efficiency. It is also necessary to find out the policies and programs that will fit to the local contexts. Thus the objective of this study was set to identify globally best practice energy efficiency policies and programs in residential sector that have replication potential in Saudi Arabia. In this regard two sets of multi-criteria decision analysis matrices were developed to evaluate the energy efficiency policies and programs. The first matrix was used to evaluate the global energy efficiency policies and programs, and the second matrix was used to evaluate the replication potential of global best practice energy efficiency policies and programs for Saudi Arabia. Wuppertal Institute’s guidelines for energy efficiency policy evaluation were used to develop the matrices, and the different attributes of the matrices were set through available literature review. The study reveals that the best practice energy efficiency policies and programs with good replication potential for Saudi Arabia are those which have multiple components to address energy efficiency and are diversified in their characteristics. The study also indicates the more diversified components are included in a policy and program, the more replication potential it has for the Kingdom. This finding is consistent with other studies, where it is observed that in order to be successful in energy efficiency practices, it is required to introduce multiple policy components in a cluster rather than concentrate on a single policy measure. The developed multi-criteria decision analysis matrices for energy efficiency policy and program evaluation could be utilized to assess the replication potential of other globally best practice energy efficiency policies and programs for the residential sector of the Kingdom. In addition it has potential to guide Saudi policy makers to adopt and formulate its own energy efficiency policies and programs for Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, residential sector, energy efficiency, policy evaluation

Procedia PDF Downloads 496

Authors: Jonida Hasanaj

Abstract:

Abstract: Four years after the pandemic, numerous studies discuss the long-term effects of COVID-19 on patients, with chronic fatigue syndrome being a prominent concern. Understanding the mechanisms behind this syndrome is crucial for developing prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies. The appropriateness of physiotherapeutic treatment in covid 19 and post-COVID-19 patients has remained uncertain due to inconsistent diagnostic criteria, highlighting the need for further research. This paper intends to offer guidelines and specific suggestions for hospital-based physical therapists managing COVID-19 hospitalized patients at ‘’Expert Physiotherapy’ and ’American Hospital’ in Albania using a national approach in accordance with worldwide initiatives. Several studies indicate that chronic tiredness syndrome and high intracranial pressure could result from failure of the post-Covid-19 lymphatic system. Enabling the patient to intensify their physical activity and enhance their ability to move, exercise, and even resume a regular life cycle is the aim of physiotherapy treatment.

Keywords: mobility, physiotherapy, post-covid 19, rehabilitation, results

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Saeed Sayyad Hagh Shomar

Abstract:

Traffic congestion pricing – as a strategy in travel demand management in urban areas to reduce traffic congestion, air pollution and noise pollution – has drawn many attentions towards itself. Unlike the satisfying findings in this method, there are still problems in determining the best functional congestion pricing scheme with regard to the situation. The so-called problems in this process will result in further complications and even the scheme failure. That is why having proper knowledge of the significance of congestion pricing schemes and the effective factors in choosing them can lead to the success of this strategy. In this study, first, a variety of traffic congestion pricing schemes and their components are introduced; then, their functional usage is discussed. Next, by analyzing and comparing the barriers, limitations and advantages, the selection criteria of pricing schemes are described. The results, accordingly, show that the selection of the best scheme depends on various parameters. Finally, based on examining the effective parameters, it is concluded that the implementation of area-based schemes (cordon and zonal) has been more successful in non-diversion of traffic. That is considering the topology of the cities and the fact that traffic congestion is often created in the city centers, area-based schemes would be notably functional and appropriate.

Keywords: congestion pricing, demand management, flat toll, variable toll

Procedia PDF Downloads 390

Authors: Luisa Perez-Mujica

Abstract:

Traditionally, non-compliance in water regulation has been understood to be attributable to lack of information or knowledge of regulations. In other words, it is confusing behavioural change and education with communication or regulations. However, compliance is a complex response to water regulation factors including 1) knowledge and understanding of regulations; 2) perception that resources are overregulated; 3) presence of regulatory officers in the field; 4) accurate communication of what is being protected; 5) time lag between behavioral change projects and observation of outcomes and 6) how success of behavioral change is measured and evaluated. This paper presents a framework for designing education and behavioral change projects by understanding non-compliance in terms of the interaction of its factors, including a process for prioritizing projects, actions, evaluation and monitoring of outcomes. By taking a systemic approach to compliance, a more directed type of actions can be efficiently identified and prioritized, preventing the reactive nature of education and behavioral change projects.

Keywords: water regulation, compliance, behaviour change, systems thinking

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Mrinal Saurabh Bhaskar, Rahul E Ravindranathan, Priyangana Borah

Abstract:

Energy plays a key role and as a driving force for economic and social growth for any country. To manage the energy sources and its efficient utilization in different economic sectors, energy policy of a country is critical. The energy performance of a country is measured in Energy Intensity and India’s Energy Intensity due to several policies interventions has reduced from 0.53 toe/1000USD (2010) in the year 2000 to 0.38 toe/1000USD (2010) in the year 2014, which is about 28 per cent reduction. The Government of India has taken several initiates to manage their increasing energy demand and meet the climate change goals defined by them. The major policy milestones in India related to energy are (i) Enactment of Energy Conservation (EC) Act 2001 (ii) Establishment of Bureau of Energy Efficiency 2001 (iii) National Action Plan on Climate Change (iv) Launch of Demand Side Management schemes (v) Amendment of EC Act 2010 (vi) Launch of Perform Achieve and Trade scheme 2012. Through a critical review, this paper highlights the key energy policy interventions by India, its benefits and impact, challenges faced and efforts of the Government to overcome such challenges. Such take away would be helpful for other countries who are proposing to prepare or amend their energy policy for their different economic sectors.

Keywords: energy, efficiency, climate, policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Alemi Asefa Wordofa

Abstract:

The textile industry is among the biggest industries in the world, producing a wide variety of products. Industry plays an important role in the world economy as well as in our daily lives. In Ethiopia, this has also been aided by the country’s impressive economic growth over the years. However, Textile industries consume large amounts of water and produce colored wastewater, which results in polluting the environment. In this study, the efficiency of the electrocoagulation treatment process using Iron electrodes to treat textile wastewater containing Reactive black everzol was studied. The effects of parameters such as voltage, time of reaction, and inter-electrode distance on Chemical oxygen demand (COD) and dye removal efficiency were investigated. In addition, electrical energy consumption at optimum conditions has been investigated. The results showed that COD and dye removals were 90.76% and 97.66%, respectively, at the optimum point of input voltage of 14v, inter-electrode distance of 7.24mm, and 47.86min electrolysis time. Energy consumption at the optimum point is also 2.9*10-3. It can be concluded that the electrocoagulation process by the iron electrode is a very efficient and clean process for COD and reactive black removal from wastewater.

Keywords: iron electrode, electrocoagulation, chemical oxygen demand, wastewater

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Aicha Assal, El Mostapha Lotfi

Abstract:

According to data from the Directorate General of Meteorology (DGM), the average amount of precipitation recorded nationwide between September 1, 2021, and January 31, 2022, is 38.8 millimeters. This is well below the climatological normal of 106.8 millimeters for the same period between 1981 and 2010. This situation is becoming increasingly worrying, particularly for farmers who are finding it difficult to irrigate their land and feed their livestock. Drought is greatly influenced by the effects of climate change, mainly caused by pollution and greenhouse gases (GHGs). The aim of this work is to contribute to the purification of wastewater (considered as polluting) in order to reuse it for irrigation in agricultural areas or for livestock watering. This will be achieved once physico-chemical treatment tests on these waters have been carried out and validated. The main parameters analyzed in this study, after carrying out discoloration tests on domestic wastewater, include COD (chemical oxygen demand), BOD5 (biochemical oxygen demand), pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, suspended solids (SS), phosphate, nitrate, nitrite and ammonium ions, faecal and total coliforms, as well as monitoring heavy metal concentrations. This work is also aimed at reclaiming the sludge produced by the decantation process, which will enable the waste to be transformed and reused as compost in agriculture and gardening.

Keywords: wastewater, irrigation, COD, COB, SS

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Amar Aliche, Hocine Hammoum, Karima Bouzelha, Arezki Ben Abderrahmane

Abstract:

Traditionally, the dimensioning of storage tanks is conducted with a deterministic approach based on partial coefficients of safety. These coefficients are applied to take into account the uncertainties related to hazards on properties of materials used and applied loads. However, the use of these safety factors in the design process does not assure an optimal and reliable solution and can sometimes lead to a lack of robustness of the structure. The reliability theory based on a probabilistic formulation of constructions safety can respond in an adapted manner. It allows constructing a modelling in which uncertain data are represented by random variables, and therefore allows a better appreciation of safety margins with confidence indicators. The work presented in this paper consists of a mecano-reliability analysis of a concrete storage tank placed on ground. The classical method of Monte Carlo simulation is used to evaluate the failure probability of concrete tank by considering the seismic acceleration as random variable.

Keywords: reliability approach, storage tanks, monte carlo simulation, seismic acceleration

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Ramin Mirzada

Abstract:

This research investigates the valuation of public transport importance in decreasing congestion and in introduction of bus rapid transit in Kabul city. The main concern and main problem of the Kabul city public transport is traffic congestion. When buses and trams are stuck in traffic jams, it is clear that they fall behind from the schedule and this cause lots of problem for Kabul residence. In this research, the main attention has been given to improve current public transport in Kabul city which Public transport has large share almost 50% share among all mode. The main purpose of this research is to improve public transport system, to examine the demand and the supply of public transport in Kabul city, and to improve public transport system by introducing Bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Kabul city. The data which is used in this research is gathered by Transport Ministry, Kabul Municipality and Japan Cooperation Agency in Afghanistan (JICA). Urban transportation modeling system (UTMS) which is also known as traditional four-step modeling is used as the methodology of this research. The outcome of this research shows that by improving public transport which is local bus system mostly congestion problem of Kabul city become solve, and for those lanes which has the high demand and has more congestion, it is needed to introduce bus rapid transit system.

Keywords: transportation, planning, public transport, bus rapid transit, Kabul, Afghanistan

Procedia PDF Downloads 487

Authors: S. Hamid Mirmohammadi, Shahrazad Tamjidzad

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the single-item continuous review inventory system in which demand is stochastic and discrete. The budget consumed for purchasing the ordered items is not restricted but it incurs extra cost when exceeding specific value. The unit purchasing price depends on the quantity ordered under the all-units discounts cost structure. In many actual systems, the budget as a resource which is occupied by the purchased items is limited and the system is able to confront the resource shortage by charging more costs. Thus, considering the resource shortage costs as a part of system costs, especially when the amount of resource occupied by the purchased item is influenced by quantity discounts, is well motivated by practical concerns. In this paper, an optimization problem is formulated for finding the optimal (R, Q) policy, when the system is influenced by the budget limitation and a discount pricing simultaneously. Properties of the cost function are investigated and then an algorithm based on a one-dimensional search procedure is proposed for finding an optimal (R, Q) policy which minimizes the expected system costs .

Keywords: (R, Q) policy, stochastic demand, backorders, limited resource, quantity discounts

Procedia PDF Downloads 641

Authors: Paula Linna

Abstract:

During the recent years interest in inclusive business has increased. Still, research on inclusive business development is at infancy. This study provides empirical evidence on inclusive business development of mini-grid solution for the rural African communities. This study tests how well the insights of creation theory can explain inclusive business development process which often occurs under uncertainty due to demands for developing new technology, new business model and establishing business in new market. These several uncertain elements of business development impact what kind of business strategies the entrepreneur can practice and what kind of decision making tools to use. In addition, community engagement is essential for the successful operative management of a mini-grid solution. This study advances the understanding of inclusive business development and can be used as the foundation for future work to facilitate the process of new business venture creation at the BOP particularly when developing community-operated entrepreneurship model.

Keywords: creation theory, base of the pyramid (BOP), community-operated entrepreneurship, rural African communities

Procedia PDF Downloads 500

Authors: Gabriela Tutuanu

Abstract:

The economic, social and environmental undesirable impact of the existing development pattern pushes to the adoption and use of a new development paradigm that of sustainable development. This paper intends to substantiate how the marketing can help the sustainable development. It begins with the subjects of sustainable development and sustainable marketing as they are discussed in literature. The sustainable development is a three dimensional concept which embeds the economic dimension, the social dimension and the environmental dimension that ask to have in view the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, social equity and environmental quality. A major challenge to achieve these goals at business level and to integrate all three dimensions of sustainability is the sustainable marketing. The sustainable marketing is a relationship marketing that aims at building lasting relationships with the social and natural environment on a long-term thinking and futurity and this philosophy allows helping all three dimensions of sustainability. As marketing solutions that could contribute to the sustainable development. We advance the stimulation of sustainable demand, the constant innovation and improvement of sustainable products, the design and use of customized communication, a multichannel distribution network and the sale of sustainable products and services at fair prices. Their implementation will increase the economic, social and environmental sustainability at a large extent in the future if they are supported by political, governmental and legal authorities.

Keywords: sustainable development, sustainable marketing, sustainable demand, sustainable product, credible communication, multi-channel distribution network, fair price

Procedia PDF Downloads 475

Authors: Wael M. Elawady, Mohamed F. Asar, Amany M. Sarhan

Abstract:

This paper adopts a continuous sliding mode control scheme for trajectory tracking control of robot manipulators with structured and unstructured uncertain dynamics and external disturbances. In this algorithm, the equivalent control in the conventional sliding mode control is replaced by a PID control action. Moreover, the discontinuous switching control signal is replaced by a continuous proportional-integral (PI) control term such that the implementation of the proposed control algorithm does not require the prior knowledge of the bounds of unknown uncertainties and external disturbances and completely eliminates the chattering phenomenon of the conventional sliding mode control approach. The closed-loop system with the adopted control algorithm has been proved to be globally stable by using Lyapunov stability theory. Numerical simulations using the dynamical model of robot manipulators with modeling uncertainties demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of the proposed approach in high speed trajectory tracking problems.

Keywords: PID, robot, sliding mode control, uncertainties

Procedia PDF Downloads 508

Authors: Katharina Eberhardt, Florian Klaus Kaiser, Frank Schultmann

Abstract:

Last-mile distribution is one of the most critical parts of a disaster relief operation. Various uncertainties, such as infrastructure conditions, resource availability, and fluctuating beneficiary demand, render last-mile distribution challenging in disaster relief operations. The need to balance critical performance criteria like response time, meeting demand and cost-effectiveness further complicates the task. The occurrence of disasters cannot be controlled, and the magnitude is often challenging to assess. In summary, these uncertainties create a need for additional flexibility, agility, and preparedness in logistics operations. As a result, strategic planning and efficient network design are critical for an effective and efficient response. Furthermore, the increasing frequency of disasters and the rising cost of logistical operations amplify the need to provide robust and resilient solutions in this area. Therefore, we formulate a scenario-based bi-objective optimization model that integrates pre-positioning, allocation, and distribution of relief supplies extending the general form of a covering location problem. The proposed model aims to minimize underlying logistics costs while maximizing demand coverage. Using a set of disruption scenarios, the model allows decision-makers to identify optimal network solutions to address the risk of disruptions. We provide an empirical case study of the public authorities’ emergency food storage strategy in Germany to illustrate the potential applicability of the model and provide implications for decision-makers in a real-world setting. Also, we conduct a sensitivity analysis focusing on the impact of varying stockpile capacities, single-site outages, and limited transportation capacities on the objective value. The results show that the stockpiling strategy needs to be consistent with the optimal number of depots and inventory based on minimizing costs and maximizing demand satisfaction. The strategy has the potential for optimization, as network coverage is insufficient and relies on very high transportation and personnel capacity levels. As such, the model provides decision support for public authorities to determine an efficient stockpiling strategy and distribution network and provides recommendations for increased resilience. However, certain factors have yet to be considered in this study and should be addressed in future works, such as additional network constraints and heuristic algorithms.

Keywords: humanitarian logistics, bi-objective optimization, pre-positioning, last mile distribution, decision support, disaster relief networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 79

Authors: Dae-Hee Son, Soon-Ryul Nam

Abstract:

The power system frequency falls when disturbance such as rapid increase of system load or loss of a generating unit occurs in power systems. Especially, increase in the number of renewable generating units has a bad influence on the power system because of loss of generating unit depending on the circumstance. Conventional technologies use frequency droop control battery output for the frequency regulation and balance between supply and demand. If power is supplied using the fast output characteristic of the battery, power system stability can be further more improved. To improve the power system stability, we propose battery output control using ROCOF (Rate of Change of Frequency) in this paper. The bigger the power difference between the supply and the demand, the bigger the ROCOF drops. Battery output is controlled proportionally to the magnitude of the ROCOF, allowing for faster response to power imbalances. To simulate the control method of battery output system, we develop the user defined model using PSS/E and confirm that power system stability is improved by comparing with frequency droop control.

Keywords: PSS/E user defined model, power deviation, frequency droop control, ROCOF (rate of change of frequency)

Procedia PDF Downloads 412

Authors: Malte Brettel, David Bendig, Michael Keller, Marius Rosenberg

Abstract:

What are the core competences necessary in order to sustain manufacturing in high-wage countries? Aspiring countries all over the world gain market share in manufacturing and rapidly close the productivity and quality gap that has until now protected some parts of the industry in Europe and the United States from dislocation. However, causal production planning and manufacturing, the basis for productivity and quality, is challenged by the ever-greater need for flexibility and customized products in an uncertain business environment. This article uses a case-study-based approach to assess how production managers in high-wage countries can apply decision-making principals from successful entrepreneurs. 'Effectuation' instead of causal decision making can be applied to handle uncertainty of mass customization, to seek the right partners in alliances and to advance towards virtual production. The findings help managers to use their resources more efficiently and contribute to bridge the gap between production research and entrepreneurship.

Keywords: case studies, decision-making behavior, effectuation, production planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Kushal Kumar Chode

Abstract:

Increase in demand for fuel saving and demand for faster vehicles with decent fuel economy, researchers around the world started investigating in various passive flow control devices to improve the fuel efficiency of vehicles. In this paper, A roof fairing was investigated for reducing the aerodynamic drag of a bluff body. The bluff body considered for this work is Ahmed model with a rake angle of 25deg was and subjected to flow with a velocity of 40m/s having Reynolds number of 2.68million was analysed using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) code Star CCM+. It was evident that pressure drag is the main source of drag on an Ahmed body from the initial study. Adding a roof fairing has delayed the flow separation and resulted in delaying wake formation, thus improving the pressure in near weak and reducing the wake region. Adding a roof fairing of height and length equal to 1/7H and 1/3L respectively has shown a drag reduction by 9%. However, an optimised fairing, which was obtained by changing height, length and width by 5% increase, recorded a drag reduction close 12%.

Keywords: Ahmed model, aerodynamic drag, passive flow control, roof fairing, wake formation

Procedia PDF Downloads 442

Authors: Dimeji Abe, Nonso Okoye, Gideon Ikpimi, Prince Idemudia

Abstract:

Multi-reservoir optimization operation has been a critical issue for river basin management. Water, as a scarce resource, is in high demand and the problems associated with the reservoir as its storage facility are enormous. The complexity in balancing the supply and demand of this prime resource has created the need to examine the best way to solve the problem using optimization techniques. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the multi-objective meta-heuristic algorithm for the operation of Gariep Dam for satisfying ecological flow requirements. This study uses an evolutionary algorithm called backtrack search algorithm (BSA) to determine the best way to optimise the dam operations of hydropower production, flood control, and water supply without affecting the environmental flow requirement for the survival of aquatic bodies and sustain life downstream of the dam. To achieve this objective, the operations of the dam that corresponds to different tradeoffs between the objectives are optimized. The results indicate the best model from the algorithm that satisfies all the objectives without any constraint violation. It is expected that hydropower generation will be improved and more water will be available for ecological flow requirements with the use of the algorithm. This algorithm also provides farmers with more irrigation water as well to improve their business.

Keywords: BSA evolutionary algorithm, metaheuristics, optimization, river basin management

Procedia PDF Downloads 245

Authors: Tippawan Nasawan

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to find the replenishment policy in Assembly-to-Order manufacturing (ATO) which some of the major components have lead-time longer than customer lead-time. The variety of products, independent component demand, and long component lead-time are the difficulty that has resulted in the overstock problem. In addition, the ordering cost is trivial when compared to the cost of material of the major component. A conceptual design of the Decision Supporting System (DSS) has introduced to assist the replenishment policy. Component replenishment by using the variable which calls Available to Promise (ATP) for making the decision is one of the keys. The Poisson distribution is adopted to realize demand patterns in order to calculate Safety Stock (SS) at the specified Customer Service Level (CSL). When distribution cannot identify, nonparametric will be applied instead. The test result after comparing the ending inventory between the new policy and the old policy, the overstock has significantly reduced by 46.9 percent or about 469,891.51 US-Dollars for the cost of the major component (material cost only). Besides, the number of the major component inventory is also reduced by about 41 percent which helps to mitigate the chance of damage and keeping stock.

Keywords: Assembly-to-Order, Decision Supporting System, Component replenishment , Poisson distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 127