Search results for: the population distribution

Authors: Nazanin Ahmadi Daryakenari

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Background: Diabetes significantly influences the risk of heart failure. The interplay between distinct types of diabetes, heart failure, and their distribution across various age groups remains an area of active exploration. This study endeavors to scrutinize the age group distribution in publications addressing Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes and heart failure on PubMed while also examining the evolving publication trends. Methods: We leveraged E-utilities and RegEx to search and extract publication data from PubMed using various mesh terms. Subsequently, we conducted descriptive statistics and t-tests to discern the differences between the two diabetes types and the distribution across age groups. Finally, we analyzed the temporal trends of publications concerning both types of diabetes and heart failure. Results: Our findings revealed a divergence in the age group distribution between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes within heart failure publications. Publications discussing Type 2 diabetes and heart failure were more predominant among older age groups, whereas those addressing Type 1 diabetes and heart failure displayed a more balanced distribution across all age groups. The t-test revealed no significant difference in the means between the two diabetes types. However, the number of publications exploring the relationship between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure has seen a steady increase over time, suggesting an escalating interest in this area. Conclusion: The dissection of publication patterns on PubMed uncovers a pronounced association between Type 2 diabetes and heart failure within older age groups. This highlights the critical need to comprehend the distinct age group differences when examining diabetes and heart failure to inform and refine targeted prevention and treatment strategies.

Keywords: Type 1 diabetes, Type 2 diabetes, heart failure, age groups, publication patterns, PubMed

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Authors: Jurica Hižak

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Getting to know the agents, i.e., identifying the free riders in a population, can be considered one of the main challenges in establishing cooperation. An ordinary memory-one agent such as Tit-for-tat may learn “who is who” in the population through direct interactions. Past experiences serve them as a landmark to know with whom to cooperate and against whom to retaliate in the next encounter. However, this kind of learning is risky and expensive. A cheaper and less painful way to detect free riders may be achieved by gossiping. For this reason, as part of this research, a special type of Tit-for-tat agent was designed – a “Gossip-Tit-for-tat” agent that can share data with other agents of its kind. The performances of both strategies, ordinary Tit-for-tat and Gossip-Tit-for-tat, against Always-defect have been compared in the finite-game framework of the Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma via the Moran process. Agents were able to move in a random-walk fashion, and they were programmed to play Prisoner’s Dilemma each time they met. Moreover, at each step, one randomly selected individual was eliminated, and one individual was reproduced in accordance with the Moran process of selection. In this way, the size of the population always remained the same. Agents were selected for reproduction via the roulette wheel rule, i.e., proportionally to the relative fitness of the strategy. The absorption probability was calculated after the population had been absorbed completely by cooperators, which means that all the states have been occupied and all of the transition probabilities have been determined. It was shown that gossip increases absorption probabilities and therefore enhances the evolution of cooperation in the population.

Keywords: cooperation, gossip, indirect reciprocity, Moran process, prisoner’s dilemma, tit-for-tat

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Authors: Norie A. Akeel, Z. Sajuri, A. K. Ariffin

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This paper discusses the effect of different loading analysis on crack initiation life of wheel/rail in the contact region. A simulated three dimensional (3D) elasto plastic model of a wheel/rail contact is modeled using the fine mesh technique in the contact region by using Finite Element Method FEM code ANSYS 11.0 software. Different loads of approximately from 70 to 140 KN was applied on the wheel tread through the running surface on the railhead surface to simulate stress distribution (Von Mises) and a life prediction of the crack initiation under rolling contact motion. Stress analysis is achieved and the fatigue life to the rail head surface is calculated numerically by using a multi-axial fatigue life of crack initiation model. All results obtained from the previous researches are compared with this research.

Keywords: FEM, rolling contact, rail track, stress distribution, fatigue life

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Authors: Johnson Joseph Kwabina Arhinful, Owusu-Ansah Emmanuel Degraft Johnson, Okyere Gabrial Asare, Adebanji Atinuke Olusola

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This paper proposes a model to describe the blood types distribution of new Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases using the Bayesian Poisson - Hidden Markov Model (BP-HMM). With the help of the Gibbs sampler algorithm, using OpenBugs, the study first identifies the number of hidden states fitting European (EU) and African (AF) data sets of COVID-19 cases by blood type frequency. The study then compares the state-dependent mean of infection within and across the two geographical areas. The study findings show that the number of hidden states and infection rates within and across the two geographical areas differ according to blood type.

Keywords: BP-HMM, COVID-19, blood types, GIBBS sampler

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Authors: Saad Algharib, Jay Lee

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Urbanization is a complex phenomenon that occurs during the city’s development from one form to another. In other words, it is the process when the activities in the land use/land cover change from rural to urban. Since the oil exploration, Kuwait City has been growing rapidly due to its urbanization and population growth by both natural growth and inward immigration. The main objective of this study is to detect changes in urban land use/land cover and to examine the changing spatial patterns of urban growth in and around Kuwait City between 1989 and 2001. In addition, this study also evaluates the spatial patterns of the changes detected and how they can be related to the spatial configuration of the city. Recently, the use of remote sensing and geographic information systems became very useful and important tools in urban studies because of the integration of them can allow and provide the analysts and planners to detect, monitor and analyze the urban growth in a region effectively. Moreover, both planners and users can predict the trends of the growth in urban areas in the future with remotely sensed and GIS data because they can be effectively updated with required precision levels. In order to identify the new urban areas between 1989 and 2001, the study uses satellite images of the study area and remote sensing technology for classifying these images. Unsupervised classification method was applied to classify images to land use and land cover data layers. After finishing the unsupervised classification method, GIS overlay function was applied to the classified images for detecting the locations and patterns of the new urban areas that developed during the study period. GIS was also utilized to evaluate the distribution of the spatial patterns. For example, Moran’s index was applied for all data inputs to examine the urban growth distribution. Furthermore, this study assesses if the spatial patterns and process of these changes take place in a random fashion or with certain identifiable trends. During the study period, the result of this study indicates that the urban growth has occurred and expanded 10% from 32.4% in 1989 to 42.4% in 2001. Also, the results revealed that the largest increase of the urban area occurred between the major highways after the forth ring road from the center of Kuwait City. Moreover, the spatial distribution of urban growth occurred in cluster manners.

Keywords: geographic information systems, remote sensing, urbanization, urban growth

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Authors: Vedat Uyak

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Seasonal variations of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetic acids (HAAs) concentrations were investigated within three distribution systems of a coastal city of Istanbul, Turkey. Moreover, total trihalomethanes and other organics concentration were also analyzed. The investigation was based on an intensive 16 month (2009-2010) sampling program, undertaken during the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. Four THM (chloroform, dichlorobromomethane, chlorodibromomethane, bromoform), and nine HAA (the most commonly occurring one being dichloroacetic acid (DCAA) and trichloroacetic acid (TCAA); other compounds are monochloroacetic acid (MCAA), monobromoacetic acid (MBAA), dibromoacetic acid (DBAA), tribromoacetic acid (TBAA), bromochloroacetic acid (BCAA), bromodichloroacetic acid (BDCAA) and chlorodibromoacetic acid (CDBAA)) species and other water quality and operational parameters were monitored at points along the distribution system between the treatment plant and the system’s extremity. The effects of coastal water sources, seasonal variation and spatial variation were examined. The results showed that THMs and HAAs concentrations vary significantly between treated waters and water at the distribution networks. When water temperature exceeds 26°C in summer, the THMs and HAAs levels are 0.8 – 1.1, and 0.4 – 0.9 times higher than treated water, respectively. While when water temperature is below 12°C in the winter, the measured THMs and HAAs concentrations at the system’s extremity were very rarely higher than 100 μg/L, and 60 μg/L, respectively. The highest THM concentrations occurred in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 92 μg/L. Moreover, the lowest THM levels were observed in the Omerli distribution network, with a mean concentration of 7 μg/L. For HAA levels, the maximum concentrations again were observed in the Buyukcekmece distribution system, with an average total HAA concentration of 57 μg/l. High spatial and seasonal variation of disinfection by-products in the drinking water of Istanbul was attributed of illegal wastewater discharges to water supplies of Istanbul city.

Keywords: disinfection byproducts, drinking water, trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, seasonal variation

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Authors: Jaeseung Lee, Muhammad Faizan Chinannai, Mohamed Hassan Gundu, Hyunchul Ju

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In this paper, we numerically investigated the effect of metal foams on a real scale 242.57cm2 (19.1 cm × 12.7 cm) polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEFCs) using a three-dimensional two-phase PEFC model to substantiate design approach for PEFCs using metal foam as the flow distributor. The simulations were conducted under the practical low humidity hydrogen, and air gases conditions in order to observe the detailed operation result in the PEFCs using the serpentine flow channel in the anode and metal foam design in the cathode. The three-dimensional contours of flow distribution in the channel, current density distribution in the membrane and hydrogen and oxygen concentration distribution are provided. The simulation results revealed that the use of highly porous and permeable metal foam can be beneficial to achieve a more uniform current density distribution and better hydration in the membrane under low inlet humidity conditions. This study offers basic directions to design channel for optimal water management of PEFCs.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cells, metal foam, real-scale, numerical model

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Authors: Davit Khachatryan, Shuo Xiang

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Numerous published studies on the use of prazosin in the treatment of PTSD-related sleep disturbances in adult population have resulted in updates to the recommendation for prazosin for nightmares that showed its strength of evidence elevated from C to B in the US Department of Veterans Affairs clinical practice guideline. In addition, the American Academy of Sleep Medicine clinical practice guideline gave prazosin a level-A recommendation for the treatment of PTSD-associated nightmares. The aim of this review is to summarize the available literature for prazosin use for nightmares and other sleep disturbances in children and adolescents with PTSD. Method: A comprehensive search for studies on prazosin use for sleep disturbances in child and adolescent population with PTSD has been performed. We looked at MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, AMED, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases. Results: Compared to adult population with similar psychopathology, the available literature in child and adolescent population is scarce. Despite increased interest in prazosin in the management of PTSD, only six studies investigating this medication in children and adolescents have been published. Conclusion: A large randomized control trial on this topic is needed for more definite evidence on the efficacy and safety of prazosin in the treatment of nightmares in children and adolescents with PTSD.

Keywords: guidelines, prazosin, PTSD, sleep disturbance

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Authors: Cyprian M. Mostert

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This paper investigates the effectiveness of tobacco control policy (TCP) in averting cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segments of the South African population. A two-stage least squares model (2SLS) was used covering the period 2009-2013. The results show that the TCP caused a 26 percent average decrease in cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segment of the population. However, limiting the sales of cheap and illegal tobacco cigarettes is necessary for advancing the effectiveness of TCP in averting cancer mortalities in the uneducated population — as the paper noted an insignificant decrease in cancer mortalities in 2012-2013 due to the presence of cheaper cigarettes. The paper also discovered evidence of persisting tobacco purchases of branded cigarettes in the educated population group which limited the effectiveness of TCP in 2009-2011. Hikes in real tobacco tax to a 0.8 USD price level in 2012 limited tobacco consumption in the educated group resulting in a 29 percent decrease in cancer mortalities. Other developing countries may learn from the South African case and strive to limit the sales of cheap illegal cigarettes while hiking real tobacco tax of branded cigarettes as a key strategy to improve cancer deaths across educated and uneducated population groups.

Keywords: cancer, health policy, health system, tobacco tax

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Authors: Ye Xue, Zhenhua Deng

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Objectives: Facial soft tissue thickness (FSTT) data could be obtained from CT scans by measuring the face-to-skull distances at sparsely distributed anatomical landmarks by manually located on face and skull. However, automated measurement using 3D facial and skull models by dense points using open-source software has become a viable option due to the development of computed assisted imaging technologies. By utilizing dense FSTT information, it becomes feasible to generate plausible automated facial approximations. Therefore, establishing a comprehensive and detailed, densely calculated FSTT database is crucial in enhancing the accuracy of facial approximation. Materials and methods: This study utilized head CT scans from 250 Chinese adults of Han ethnicity, with 170 participants originally born and residing in northern China and 80 participants in southern China. The age of the participants ranged from 14 to 82 years, and all samples were divided into five non-overlapping age groups. Additionally, samples were also divided into three categories based on BMI information. The 3D Slicer software was utilized to segment bone and soft tissue based on different Hounsfield Unit (HU) thresholds, and surface models of the face and skull were reconstructed for all samples from CT data. Following procedures were performed unsing MeshLab, including converting the face models into hollowed cropped surface models amd automatically measuring the Hausdorff Distance (referred to as FSTT) between the skull and face models. Hausdorff point clouds were colorized based on depth value and exported as PLY files. A histogram of the depth distributions could be view and subdivided into smaller increments. All PLY files were visualized of Hausdorff distance value of each vertex. Basic descriptive statistics (i.e., mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation etc.) and distribution of FSTT were analysis considering the sex, age, BMI and birthplace. Statistical methods employed included Multiple Regression Analysis, ANOVA, principal component analysis (PCA). Results: The distribution of FSTT is mainly influenced by BMI and sex, as further supported by the results of the PCA analysis. Additionally, FSTT values exceeding 30mm were found to be more sensitive to sex. Birthplace-related differences were observed in regions such as the forehead, orbital, mandibular, and zygoma. Specifically, there are distribution variances in the depth range of 20-30mm, particularly in the mandibular region. Northern males exhibit thinner FSTT in the frontal region of the forehead compared to southern males, while females shows fewer distribution differences between the northern and southern, except for the zygoma region. The observed distribution variance in the orbital region could be attributed to differences in orbital size and shape. Discussion: This study provides a database of Chinese individuals distribution of FSTT and suggested opening source tool shows fine function for FSTT measurement. By incorporating birthplace as an influential factor in the distribution of FSTT, a greater level of detail can be achieved in facial approximation.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, forensic imaging, cranial facial reconstruction, facial soft tissue thickness, CT, open-source tool

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Authors: Yousef Naserzadeh, Niloufar Mahmoudi

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The spotted-wing drosophila, Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) (Diptera: Drosophilidae), a vinegar fly native to South East Asia, has recently invaded Europe, North- and South America and is spreading rapidly. Species distribution modeling has been widely employed to indicate probable areas of invasion and to guide management strategies. Drosophila sp. is native to Asia, but since 2015, it has invaded almost every country in the world, including Africa, Australia, India, and most recently, the Americas. The growth of this species of Drosophila suzukii has been rapidly multiplying and spreading in the last decade. In fact, we examine and model the potential geographical distribution of D. suzukii for both present and future scenarios. Finally, we determine the environmental variables that affect its distribution, as well as assess the risk of encroachment on protected areas. D.suzukii has the potential to expand its occurrence, especially on continents that have already been invaded. The predictive models obtained in this study indicate potential regions that could be at risk of invasion by D. suzukii, including protected areas. These results are important and can assist in the establishment of management plans to avoid the possible harm caused by biological invasions.

Keywords: climate change, Drosophila suzukii, environmental variables, host preference, host plant, nutrition

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Authors: Ambika Roy Bardhan

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Kolkata, the City of Joy, is a greying metropolis not only in respect of its concrete jungle but also because of the largest population of 60-plus residents that it shelters among all other cities in India. Declining birth and death rates and a negative growth of population indicate that the city has reached the last stage of demographic transition. Thus, the obvious consequence has been the ageing of its population. With this background, the present paper attempts to study the demographic and socio-economic status of the elderly population in Kolkata. Analysis and findings have been based on secondary data obtained from Census of India of various years, Sample Registration System Reports and reports by HelpAge India. Findings show that the elderly population is increasing continuously. With respect to gender, the male elderly outnumbers the female elderly population. The percentage of households having one elderly member is more in the city due to the emergence of the nuclear families and erosion of joint family system. With respect to socio-economic status, those elderly who are the heads of the family are lower in percentages than those in the other age groups. Also, male elderly as head of the family are greater in percentage than female elderly. Elderly in the category of currently married records the highest percentage followed by widowed, never married and lastly, separated or divorced. Male elderly outnumber the female elderly as currently married, while female elderly outnumbers the male elderly in the category of widowed. In terms of living status, the percentage of elderly who are living alone is highest in Kolkata and the reason for staying alone as no support from children also happens to be highest in this city. The literacy rate and higher level of education is higher among the male than female elderly. Higher percentages of female elderly have been found to be with disability. Disability in movement and multiple disabilities have been found to be more common among the elderly population in Kolkata. Percentages of male literate pensioners are highest than other categories. Also, in terms of levels of education male elderly who are graduate and above other than technical degree are the highest receivers of pension. Also, in terms of working status, elderly as non-workers are higher in percentages with the population of elderly females outnumbering the males. The old age dependency ratio in the city is increasing continuously and the ratio is higher among females than male. Thus, it can be stated that Kolkata is witnessing continuous and rapid ageing of its population. Increasing dependency ratio is likely to create pressure on the working population, available civic, social and health amenities. This requires intervention in the form of planning, formulation and implementation of laws, policies, programs and measures to safeguard and improve the conditions of the elderly in Kolkata.

Keywords: demographic, elderly, population, socio-economic

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Authors: Xiaozhou Liu, Guangyu Zhu, Yu Zhang, Hongwei Wu

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The wind-box is one of the important components of a Circulating Fluidized Bed (CFB) boiler. The uniformity of air flow in the wind-box of is very important for highly efficient operation of the CFB boiler. Non-uniform air flow distribution within the wind-box can reduce the boiler's thermal efficiency, leading to higher energy consumptions. An effective measure to solve this problem is to install an air flow distributing device in the wind-box. In order to validate the effectiveness of the air flow distributing device, visual and velocity distribution uniformity experiments have been carried out under five different test conditions by using a 1:64 scale model of a 220t/hr CFB boiler. It has been shown that the z component of flow velocity remains almost the same at control cross-sections of the wind-box, with a maximum variation of less than 10%. Moreover, the same methodology has been carried out to a full-scale 220t/hr CFB boiler. The hot test results depict that the thermal efficiency of the boiler has increased from 85.71% to 88.34% when tested with an air flow distributing device in place, which is equivalent to a saving of 5,000 tons of coal per year. The economic benefits of this energy-saving technology have been shown to be very significant, which clearly demonstrates that the technology is worth applying and popularizing.

Keywords: circulating fluidized bed, CFB, wind-box, air flow distributing device, visual experiment, velocity distribution uniformity experiment, hot test

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Authors: S. Santalunai, T. Thosdeekoraphat, C. Thongsopa

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This paper presents the effect of electric field distribution which is an electric field intensity analysis. Consideration of the dielectric heating of grains and insects, the rice and rice weevils are utilized for dielectric heating analysis. Furthermore, this analysis compares the effect of electric field distribution in rice and rice weevil. In this simulation, two copper plates are used to generate the electric field for dielectric heating system and put the rice materials between the copper plates. The simulation is classified in two cases, which are case I one rice weevil is placed in the rice and case II two rice weevils are placed at different position in the rice. Moreover, the probes are located in various different positions on plate. The power feeding on this plate is optimized by using CST EM studio program of 1000 watt electrical power at 39 MHz resonance frequency. The results of two cases are indicated that the most electric field distribution and intensity are occurred on the rice and rice weevils at the near point of the probes. Moreover, the heat is directed to the rice weevils more than the rice. When the temperature of rice and rice weevils are calculated and compared, the rice weevils has the temperature more than rice is about 41.62 Celsius degrees. These results can be applied for the dielectric heating applications to eliminate insect.

Keywords: capacitor copper plates, electric field distribution, dielectric heating, grains

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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In this paper, we present the human action recognition method using the variational Bayesian HMM with the Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of the Gaussian-Wishart emission model (GWEM). First, we define the Bayesian HMM based on the Dirichlet process, which allows an infinite number of Gaussian-Wishart components to support continuous emission observations. Second, we have considered an efficient variational Bayesian inference method that can be applied to drive the posterior distribution of hidden variables and model parameters for the proposed model based on training data. And then we have derived the predictive distribution that may be used to classify new action. Third, the paper proposes a process of extracting appropriate spatial-temporal feature vectors that can be used to recognize a wide range of human behaviors from input video image. Finally, we have conducted experiments that can evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The experimental results show that the method presented is more efficient with human action recognition than existing methods.

Keywords: human action recognition, Bayesian HMM, Dirichlet process mixture model, Gaussian-Wishart emission model, Variational Bayesian inference, prior distribution and approximate posterior distribution, KTH dataset

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

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The Mukherjee-Islam Model is commonly used as a simple life time distribution to assess system reliability. The model exhibits a better fit for failure information and provides more appropriate information about hazard rate and other reliability measures as shown by various authors. It is possible to introduce a location parameter at a time (i.e., a time before which failure cannot occur) which makes it a more useful failure distribution than the existing ones. Even after shifting the location of the distribution, it represents a decreasing, constant and increasing failure rate. It has been shown to represent the appropriate lower tail of the distribution of random variables having fixed lower bound. This study presents the reliability computations and probability weighted moment estimation of three parameter model. A comparative analysis is carried out between three parameters finite range model and some existing bathtub shaped curve fitting models. Since probability weighted moment method is used, the results obtained can also be applied on small sample cases. Maximum likelihood estimation method is also applied in this study.

Keywords: comparative analysis, maximum likelihood estimation, Mukherjee-Islam failure model, probability weighted moment estimation, reliability

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Authors: Mayowa Philips Ibitola, Abe Oluwaseun Banji, Olorunfemi Akinade-Solomon

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A total of 20 bottom sediment samples were collected from the Lekki Lagoon during the wet and dry season. The study was carried out to determine the textural characteristics, sediment distribution pattern and energy of transportation within the lagoon system. The sediment grain sizes and depth profiling was analyzed using dry sieving method and MATLAB algorithm for processing. The granulometric reveals fine grained sand both for the wet and dry season with an average mean value of 2.03 ϕ and -2.88 ϕ, respectively. Sediments were moderately sorted with an average inclusive standard deviation of 0.77 ϕ and -0.82 ϕ. Skewness varied from strongly coarse and near symmetrical 0.34- ϕ and 0.09 ϕ. The kurtosis average value was 0.87 ϕ and -1.4 ϕ (platykurtic and leptokurtic). Entirely, the bathymetry shows an average depth of 4.0 m. The deepest and shallowest area has a depth of 11.2 m and 0.5 m, respectively. High concentration of fine sand was observed at deep areas compared to the shallow areas during wet and dry season. Statistical parameter results show that the overall sediments are sorted, and deposited under low energy condition over a long distance. However, sediment distribution and sediment transport pattern of Lekki Lagoon is controlled by a low energy current and the down slope configuration of the bathymetry enhances the sorting and the deposition rate in the Lekki Lagoon.

Keywords: Lekki Lagoon, Marine sediment, bathymetry, grain size distribution

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Authors: T. Dubayova

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Slovak, as well as foreign authors, believe that the influence of non-cognitive factors on a student's academic success or failure is unquestionable. The aim of this paper is to establish a link between the mental vulnerability and coping strategies used by 4^th grade elementary school students in dealing with stressful situations and their academic performance, which was used as a simple quantitative indicator of academic success. The research sample consists of 320 students representing the standard population and 60 students with special education needs (SEN), who were assessed by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) by their teachers and the Children’s Coping Strategies Checklist (CCSC-R1) filled in by themselves. Students with SEN recorded an extraordinarily high frequency of mental vulnerability (34.5 %) than students representing the standard population (7 %). The poorest academic performance of students with SEN was associated with the avoidance behavior displayed during stressful situations. Students of the standard population did not demonstrate this association. Students with SEN are more likely to display mental health problems than students of the standard population. This may be caused by the accumulation of and frequent exposure to situations that they perceive as stressful.

Keywords: coping, mental vulnerability, pupil with special education needs, school performance, school success

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Authors: Taehan Bae

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In this paper, a class of length-biased Weibull mixtures is presented to model loss severity data. The proposed model generalizes the Erlang mixtures with the common scale parameter, and it shares many important modelling features, such as flexibility to fit various data distribution shapes and weak-denseness in the class of positive continuous distributions, with the Erlang mixtures. We show that the asymptotic tail estimate of the length-biased Weibull mixture is Weibull-type, which makes the model effective to fit loss severity data with heavy-tailed observations. A method of statistical estimation is discussed with applications on real catastrophic loss data sets.

Keywords: Erlang mixture, length-biased distribution, transformed gamma distribution, asymptotic tail estimate, EM algorithm, expectation-maximization algorithm

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Authors: Pedro Paulino

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The majority of the world’s population is already living in urban areas and the urban population is expected to keep increasing in the next decades. This exponential increase in urban population carries with it obvious mobility problems. Not only a new paradigm in the transport sector is needed in order to address these problems; effective regulatory policies to ensure the quality of services, passenger rights, competition between operators and consistency of the entire mobile ecosystem are needed as well. The purpose of this paper is to present the problems the world faces in this sector and contribute to their solution. Indeed, our study concludes that only through the active supervision of the markets and the activity of monitoring the various operators will it be possible to develop a sustainable and efficient transport system which meets the needs of a changing world.

Keywords: mobility, regulation policies, sanctioning powers, sustainable transport

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Authors: Imran Hashmi, Sipkaduwa Arachchige Sashika Sureni Wickramasooriya

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Gene-drive technology has emerged as a promising tool for disease control by influencing the population dynamics of disease-carrying organisms. Various gene drive mechanisms, derived from global laboratory experiments, aim to strategically manage and prevent the spread of targeted diseases. One prominent strategy involves population replacement, wherein genetically modified mosquitoes are introduced to replace the existing local wild population. To enhance our understanding and aid in the design of effective release strategies, we employ a comprehensive mathematical model. The utilized approach employs agent-based modeling, enabling the consideration of individual mosquito attributes and flexibility in parameter manipulation. Through the integration of an agent-based model and a meta-population spatial approach, the dynamics of gene drive mosquito spreading in a released site are simulated. The model's outcomes offer valuable insights into future population dynamics, providing guidance for the development of informed release strategies. This research significantly contributes to the ongoing discourse on the responsible and effective implementation of gene drive technology for disease vector control.

Keywords: gene drive, agent-based modeling, disease-carrying organisms, malaria

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Authors: A. Hamieh, Z. Olama, H. Holail

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Drinking Water Distribution Systems provide opportunities for microorganisms that enter the drinking water to develop into biofilms. Antimicrobial agents, mainly chlorine, are used to disinfect drinking water, however, there are not yet standardized disinfection strategies with reliable efficacy and development of novel anti-biofilm strategies is still of major concern. In the present study the ability of Lactobacillus acidophilus and Streptomyces sp. cell free supernatants to inhibit the bacterial biofilm formation in Drinking Water Distribution System in Lebanon was investigated. Treatment with cell free supernatants of Lactobacillus acidophilus and Streptomyces sp. at 20% concentration resulted in average biofilm inhibition (52.89 and 39.66% respectively). A preliminary investigation about the mode of action of biofilm inhibition revealed that cell free supernatants showed no bacteriostatic or bactericidal activity against all the tested isolates. Pre-coating wells with supernatants revealed that Lactobacillus acidophilus cell free supernatant inhibited average biofilm formation (62.53%) by altering the adhesion of bacterial isolates to the surface, preventing the initial attachment step, which is important for biofilm production.

Keywords: biofilm, cell free supernatant, distribution system, drinking water, lactobacillus acidophilus, streptomyces sp, adhesion

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Authors: M. Asato, C. Liu, N. Fujima, T. Hoshino, Y. Chen, T. Mohri

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We study the temperature dependence of the interaction energies (IEs) of X (=Ru, Rh) impurities in Pd, due to the Fermi-Dirac (FD) distribution and the thermal vibration effect by the Debye-Grüneisen model. The n-body (n=2~4) IEs among X impurities in Pd, being used to calculate the internal energies in the free energies of the Pd-rich PdX alloys, are determined uniquely and successively from the lower-order to higher-order, by the full-potential Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker Green’s function method (FPKKR), combined with the generalized gradient approximation in the density functional theory. We found that the temperature dependence of IEs due to the FD distribution, being usually neglected, is very important to reproduce the X-concentration dependence of the observed solvus temperatures of the Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys.

Keywords: full-potential KKR-green’s function method, Fermi-Dirac distribution, GGA, phase diagram of Pd-rich PdX (X=Ru, Rh) alloys, thermal vibration effect

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Authors: Usama Bin Zubair, Muhammad Azeem

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Introduction: Depression has been one of the most commonly diagnosed mental health disorders in Pakistan. A Census conducted by the government of Pakistan in 2017 showed that more than 10000 trans-genders live in Pakistan. HIV, illicit substance use and mental health issues, including depression, have been the main health problems faced by them. Trans-gender population has been suffering from depressive illness more than normal population all over the world. Aim: To assess the prevalence of depression among the transgender population and analyze the relationship of socio-demographic factors with depression. Subjects and Methods: The sample population comprised of one hundred and forty-two transgender people of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Beck depressive inventory II (BDI-II) was used to record the presence and severity of the depressive symptoms. Depressive symptoms were categorized as mild, moderate and severe. Relationship of the age, smoking, family income, illicit substance use and education were studied with the presence of depressive symptoms among these transgender people of twin cities of Pakistan. Results: A total of 142 transgender people were included in the final analysis. The mean age of the study participants was 39.55 ± 6.18. Out of these, 45.1% had no depressive symptoms while 31.7% had mild, 12.7% had moderate and 10.6% had severe depressive symptomatology. After applying the binary logistic regression, we found that the presence of depressive symptoms had a significant association with illicit substance use among the target population. Conclusion: This study showed a high prevalence of depressive symptoms among the transgender population in the twin cities of Pakistan. Use of illicit substances like tobacco, cannabis, opiates, and alcohol should be discouraged to prevent mental health problems.

Keywords: depression, transgender, prevalence, sociodemographic factors

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Authors: Hooman Dabirmanesh, Attila M. Zsaki

Abstract:

Traditionally, rock slope stability is carried out using limit equilibrium analysis when investigating toppling failure. In these equilibrium methods, internal forces exerted between columns are not clearly defined, and to the authors’ best knowledge, there is no consensus in literature with respect to the results of analysis. A discrete element method-based numerical model was developed and applied to simulate the behavior of rock layers subjected to toppling failure. Based on this calibrated numerical model, a study of the location and distribution of internal forces that result in equilibrium was carried out. The sum of side forces was applied at a point on a block which properly represents the force to determine the inter-column force distribution. In terms of the side force distribution coefficient, the result was compared to those obtained from laboratory centrifuge tests. The results of the simulation show the suitable criteria to select the correct position for the internal exerted force between rock layers. In addition, the numerical method demonstrates how a theoretical method could be reliable by considering the interaction between the rock layers.

Keywords: contact bond, discrete element, force distribution, limit equilibrium, tensile stress

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Authors: Leila Yazdanpanah, Hajieh Shahbazian, Seyed Mahmoud Latifi, Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Saeed Ghanbari

Abstract:

Introduction: This study was designed to determine the prevalence of diabetes in people aged over 20 years in Ahvaz, Iran. Material and Methods: The study population selected by cluster sampling. Fasting blood sugar (FBS) assessed after minimum 8 hours night fasting. A questionnaire included: age, sex, weight, height, blood pressure, waist circumference and previous history of diabetes were completed for each patient. FBS≥126mg/dl and/or oral hypoglycemic treatment and/or insulin was defined as diabetes, FBS=100-125 mg/dl as impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and FBS<100mg/dl as normal. Results: Study population was 936 persons (47.2 % male and 52.8% female). The mean age of a population was 42.2±14 years. Diabetes was detected in 15.1 % of population. Only 57cases(6.1%) were aware of their disease and 9% had unknown diabetes. Diabetes was detected in 14.5% of male (11.3% unknown and 3.2 % known diabetes) and in 11.7% of female (7% unknown and 4.7% known diabetes). Prevalence of diabetes had no significant difference (P=0.21) in male and female but unknown diabetes was significantly higher in male (P=0.025). Prevalence of diabetes was increased with rising of age between 20-60 years old but decreasing after 60 years old. Diabetes was related to age, waist circumference and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, TG level and BMI in both sex (P=0.0001). Conclusion: More than half of female and three-fourth of male diabetic patients are unaware of their disease in South of Iran. Diabetes screening should be intensified in this population.

Keywords: diabetes, prevalence, risk factor, awareness

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Authors: Afef Dridi, Salah Mezlini

Abstract:

Since experimental devices cannot calculate stress and deformation of complex structures. The Finite Element Method FEM has been widely used in several fields of research. One of these fields is orthodontics. The advantage of using such a method is the use of an accurate and non invasive method that allows us to have a sufficient data about the physiological reactions can happening in soft tissues. Most of researches done in this field were interested in the study of stresses and deformations induced by orthodontic apparatus in soft tissues (alveolar tissues). Only few studies were interested in the distribution of stress and strain in the orthodontic brackets. These studies, although they tried to be as close as possible to real conditions, their models did not reproduce the clinical cases. For this reason, the model generated by our research is the closest one to reality. In this study, a numerical model was developed to explore the stress and strain distribution under the application of real conditions. A comparison between different material properties was also done.

Keywords: visco-hyperelasticity, FEM, orthodontic treatment, inverse method

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Authors: Ariful Islam, Showkat Ahmad Lone

Abstract:

Statistical distributions have long been employed in the assessment of semiconductor devices and product reliability. The power function-distribution is one of the most important distributions in the modern reliability practice and can be frequently preferred over mathematically more complex distributions, such as the Weibull and the lognormal, because of its simplicity. Moreover, it may exhibit a better fit for failure data and provide more appropriate information about reliability and hazard rates in some circumstances. This study deals with estimating information about failure times of items under step-stress partially accelerated life tests for competing risk based on adoptive type-I progressive hybrid censoring criteria. The life data of the units under test is assumed to follow Mukherjee-Islam distribution. The point and interval maximum-likelihood estimations are obtained for distribution parameters and tampering coefficient. The performances of the resulting estimators of the developed model parameters are evaluated and investigated by using a simulation algorithm.

Keywords: adoptive progressive hybrid censoring, competing risk, mukherjee-islam distribution, partially accelerated life testing, simulation study

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Authors: Arti Devi, Parthasarthi Choudhury

Abstract:

Extreme rainfall frequency analysis for Meteorological Sub-Division 4 of India was analysed using L-moments approach. Serial Correlation and Mann Kendall tests were conducted for checking serially independent and stationarity of the observations. The discordancy measure for the sites was conducted to detect the discordant sites. The regional homogeneity was tested by comparing with 500 generated homogeneous regions using a 4 parameter Kappa distribution. The best fit distribution was selected based on ZDIST statistics and L-moments ratio diagram from the five extreme value distributions GPD, GLO, GEV, P3 and LP3. The LN3 distribution was selected and regional rainfall frequency relationship was established using index-rainfall procedure. A regional mean rainfall relationship was developed using multiple linear regression with latitude and longitude of the sites as variables.

Keywords: L-moments, ZDIST statistics, serial correlation, Mann Kendall test

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Authors: Stuti Modi, Aditi Kambli

Abstract:

This paper addresses the need for intelligent water management and distribution system in smart cities to ensure optimal consumption and distribution of water for drinking and sanitation purposes. Water being a limited resource in cities require an effective system for collection, storage and distribution. In this paper, applications of two mostly widely used particular types of data-driven models, namely artificial neural networks (ANN) and fuzzy logic-based models, to modelling in the water resources management field are considered. The objective of this paper is to review the principles of various types and architectures of neural network and fuzzy adaptive systems and their applications to integrated water resources management. Final goal of the review is to expose and formulate progressive direction of their applicability and further research of the AI-related and data-driven techniques application and to demonstrate applicability of the neural networks, fuzzy systems and other machine learning techniques in the practical issues of the regional water management. Apart from this the paper will deal with water storage, using ANN to find optimum reservoir level and predicting peak daily demands.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, fuzzy systems, peak daily demand prediction, water management and distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 166