Search results for: risk based index

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Tsz W. Tsang

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Many Hong Kong people nowadays spend most of their lifetime working indoor. Since poor Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) potentially leads to discomfort, ill health, low productivity and even absenteeism in workplaces, a call for establishing statutory IAQ control to safeguard the well-being of residents is urgently required. Although policies, strategies, and guidelines for workplace IAQ diagnosis have been developed elsewhere and followed with remedial works, some of those workplaces or buildings have relatively late stage of the IAQ problems when the investigation or remedial work started. Screening for IAQ problems should be initiated as it will provide information as a minimum provision of IAQ baseline requisite to the resolution of the problems. It is not practical to sample all air pollutants that exit. Nevertheless, as a statutory control, reliable, rapid screening is essential in accordance with a compromise strategy, which balances costs against detection of key pollutants. This study investigates the feasibility of using an IAQ index as a parameter of IAQ control in Hong Kong. The index is a screening parameter to identify the unsatisfactory workplace IAQ and will highlight where a fully effective IAQ monitoring and assessment is needed for an intensive diagnosis. There already exist a number of representative common indoor pollutants based on some extensive IAQ assessments. The selection of pollutants is surrogate to IAQ control consists of dilution, mitigation, and emission control. The IAQ Index and assessment will look at high fractional quantities of these common measurement parameters. With the support of the existing comprehensive regional IAQ database and the IAQ Index by the research team as the pre-assessment probability, and the unsatisfactory IAQ prevalence as the post-assessment probability from this study, thresholds of maintaining the current measures and performing a further IAQ test or IAQ remedial measures will be proposed. With justified resources, the proposed IAQ Index and assessment protocol might be a useful tool for setting up a practical public IAQ surveillance programme and policy in Hong Kong.

Keywords: assessment, index, indoor air quality, surveillance programme

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Authors: Souhir Chelly, Asma Ben Cheikh, Hela Ghali, Salwa Khefacha, Lamine Dhidah, Mohamed Ben Rejeb, Houyem Said Latiri

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The hospital risk management department is firstly involved in the methodological analysis of grade zero sterilization incidents. The system is based on a subsequent analysis process in compliance with the ongoing requirements of the Haute Autorité de santé (HAS) for a reactive approach to risk, allowing to identify failures and start the appropriate preventive and corrective measures. The use of the association of litigation and risk management (ALARM) method makes easier the grade zero analysis and brings to light the team or institutional, organizational, temporal, individual factors representative of undesirable effects. Two main factors come out again from this analysis, pre-disinfection step of the emergency block unsupervised instrumentalist intern was poorly done since she did not remove the battery from micro air motor. At the sterilization unit, the worker who was not supervised by the nurse did the conditioning of the motor without having checked it if it still contained the battery. The main cause is that the management of human resources was inadequate at both levels, the instrumental trainee in the block who was not supervised by his supervisor and the worker of the sterilization unit who was not supervised by the responsible nurse. There is a lack of research help, advice, and collaboration. The difficulties encountered during this type of analysis are multiple. The first is based on its necessary acceptance by the various actors of care involved, which should not perceive it as a tool leading to individual punishment, but rather as a means to improve their practices.

Keywords: ALARM (Association of Litigation and Risk Management Method), incident, risk management, sterilization

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Authors: Oguzhan Cepni, Doruk Kucuksarac, M. Hasan Yilmaz

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Changes in the global risk appetite cause co-movement in emerging market risk premiums. However, the sensitivity of the changes in risk premium to the global risk appetite may vary across emerging markets. In this study, how the global risk appetite affects Credit Default Swap (CDS) premiums in emerging markets are analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and rolling regressions. The PCA results indicate that the first common component derived by the PCA accounts for almost 76 percent of the common variation in CDS premiums. Additionally, the explanatory power of the first factor seems to be high over the sample period. However, the sensitivity to the global risk factor tends to change over time and across countries. In this regard, fixed effects panel regressions are used to identify the macroeconomic factors driving the heterogeneity across emerging markets. The panel regression results point to the significance of government debt to GDP and international reserves to GDP in explaining sensitivity. Accordingly, countries with lower government debt and higher reserves tend to be less subject to the variations in the global risk appetite.

Keywords: credit default swaps, emerging markets, principal components analysis, sovereign risk

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Authors: T. C. Hsu, H. L. Lin

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Taiwan is mountainous country, 70% of land is covered with mountains. Because of extreme climate, the mountain villages with sensitive and fragile environment often get easily affected by inundation and debris flow from typhoon which brings huge rainfall. Due to inappropriate development, overuse and fewer access roads, occurrence of disaster becomes more frequent through downpour and rescue actions are postponed. However, risk map is generally established through administrative boundaries, the difference of urban and rural area is ignored. The neglect of mountain village characteristics eventually underestimates the importance of factors related to vulnerability and reduces the effectiveness. In disaster management, there are different strategies and actions at each stage. According to different tasks, there will be different risk indices and weights to analyze disaster risk for each stage and then it will contribute to confront threat and reduce impact appropriately on right time. Risk map is important in mitigation, but also in response stage because some factors such as road network will be changed by disaster. This study will use risk assessment to establish risk map of Shanlin District which is mountain village in Kaohsiung as a case study in mitigation and response stage through Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP helps to recognize the composition and weights of risk factors in mountain village by experts’ opinions through survey design and is combined with present potential hazard map to produce risk map.

Keywords: risk assessment, mountain village, risk map, analytic hierarchy process

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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Technology adoption models are extensively used in the literature to explore drivers and inhibitors affecting the adoption of Computer Assisted Audit Techniques and Tools (CAATTs). Further studies from recent years suggested additional factors that may affect technology adoption by CPA firms. However, the adoption of CAATTs by financial auditors differs from the adoption of technologies in other industries. This is a result of the unique characteristics of the auditing process, which are expressed in the audit risk elements and the risk-based auditing approach, as encoded in the auditing standards. Since these audit risk factors are not part of the existing models that are used to explain technology adoption, these models do not fully correspond to the specific needs and requirements of the auditing domain. The overarching objective of this qualitative research is to fill the gap in the literature, which exists as a result of using generic technology adoption models. Followed by a pretest and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 Israeli CPA firms of different sizes, this study aims to reveal determinants related to audit risk factors that influence the adoption of CAATTs in audits and proposes a new modeling approach for the successful adoption of CAATTs. The findings emphasize several important aspects: (1) while large CPA firms developed their own inner guidelines to assess the audit risk components, other CPA firms do not follow a formal and validated methodology to evaluate these risks; (2) large firms incorporate a variety of CAATTs, including self-developed advanced tools. On the other hand, small and mid-sized CPA firms incorporate standard CAATTs and still need to catch up to better understand what CAATTs can offer and how they can contribute to the quality of the audit; (3) the top management of mid-sized and small CPA firms should be more proactive and updated about CAATTs capabilities and contributions to audits; and (4) All CPA firms consider professionalism as a major challenge that must be constantly managed to ensure an optimal CAATTs operation. The study extends the existing knowledge of CAATTs adoption by looking at it from a risk-based auditing approach. It suggests a new model for CAATTs adoption by incorporating influencing audit risk factors that auditors should examine when considering CAATTs adoption. Since the model can be used in various audited scenarios and supports strategic, risk-based decisions, it maximizes the great potential of CAATTs on the quality of the audits. The results and insights can be useful to CPA firms, internal auditors, CAATTs developers and regulators. Moreover, it may motivate audit standard-setters to issue updated guidelines regarding CAATTs adoption in audits.

Keywords: audit risk, CAATTs, financial auditing, information technology, technology adoption models

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Authors: Syeda Salina Aziz, Tanvir Ahmed Mozumder

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Citizenship is an important concept of democracy which broadly defines the relationship between the state and its citizens; at the same time, it analyzes the rights and duties of a citizen. The universal citizenship principle demands that citizens should be aware of the political system, possess democratic attitudes, and join the political activity. Bangladesh presents an interesting case for democracy; the democratic practices in the country have been long introduced, have been interrupted several times, and the democratic values and practices have yet to be established in the country. These transitions have influenced citizens’ ideologies and participation in decision-making and also shaped their expectations differently. In this backdrop, this paper aims to understand and explain the citizenship behavior of Bangladeshi nationals. Based on nationally representative household survey data of 4000 respondents, this paper creates a composite citizenship index which is a combination of three separate indices, including participation index, knowledge and awareness index, and ideology index. The paper then tries to explain the factors that affect the citizenship index. Using fixed effect regression analysis, the paper intends to explore the association between citizenship and socio-demographic variables, including education, location, gender, and exposure to the media of respondents. Additionally, using national election polls, the paper creates a variable to measure long-term support towards the current ruling party and tests whether and how this affects the citizenship variables.

Keywords: citizenship, political participation, Bangladesh, stronghold

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Authors: Yusarina Mat-Isa, Zuraidah Mohd-Sanusi, Mohd-Nizal Haniff, Paul A. Barnes

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In view that money laundering has become eminent for banking institutions, it is an obligation for the banking institutions to adopt a risk-based approach as the integral component of the accepted policies on anti-money laundering. In doing so, those involved with the banking operations are the most critical group of personnel as these are the people who deal with the day-to-day operations of the banking institutions and are obligated to form a judgement on the level of impending risk. This requirement is extended to all relevant banking institutions staff, such as tellers and customer account representatives for them to identify suspicious customers and escalate it to the relevant authorities. Banking institutions staffs, however, face enormous challenges in identifying and distinguishing money launderers from other legitimate customers seeking genuine banking transactions. Banking institutions staffs are mostly educated and trained with the business objective in mind to serve the customers and are not trained to be “detectives with a detective’s power of observation”. Despite increasing awareness as well as trainings conducted for the banking institutions staff, their competency in assessing money laundering risk is still insufficient. Several gaps have prompted this study including the lack of behavioural perspectives in the assessment of money laundering risk in the banking institutions. Utilizing experimental approach, respondents are randomly assigned within a controlled setting with manipulated situations upon which judgement of the respondents is solicited based on various observations related to the situations. The study suggests that it is imperative that informed judgement is exercised in arriving at the decision to proceed with the banking services required by the customers. Judgement forms a basis of opinion for the banking institution staff to decide if the customers posed money laundering risk. Failure to exercise good judgement could results in losses and absorption of unnecessary risk into the banking institutions. Although the banking institutions are exposed with choices of automated solutions in assessing money laundering risk, the human factor in assessing the risk is indispensable. Individual staff in the banking institutions is the first line of defence who are responsible for screening the impending risk of any customer soliciting for banking services. At the end of the spectrum, the individual role involvement on the subject of money laundering risk assessment is not a substitute for automated solutions as human judgement is inimitable.

Keywords: banking institutions, experimental approach, money laundering, risk assessment

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Authors: Sky Chou, Joseph C. Chen

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This paper focuses on using Six Sigma methodologies to improve the surface roughness of a manufactured part produced by the CNC milling machine. It presents a case study where the surface roughness of milled aluminum is required to reduce or eliminate defects and to improve the process capability index C_p and C_pk for a CNC milling process. The six sigma methodology, DMAIC (design, measure, analyze, improve, and control) approach, was applied in this study to improve the process, reduce defects, and ultimately reduce costs. The Taguchi-based six sigma approach was applied to identify the optimized processing parameters that led to the targeted surface roughness specified by our customer. A L₉ orthogonal array was applied in the Taguchi experimental design, with four controllable factors and one non-controllable/noise factor. The four controllable factors identified consist of feed rate, depth of cut, spindle speed, and surface roughness. The noise factor is the difference between the old cutting tool and the new cutting tool. The confirmation run with the optimal parameters confirmed that the new parameter settings are correct. The new settings also improved the process capability index. The purpose of this study is that the Taguchi–based six sigma approach can be efficiently used to phase out defects and improve the process capability index of the CNC milling process.

Keywords: CNC machining, six sigma, surface roughness, Taguchi methodology

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Authors: Kim Sang Hyuck, Y. Park Sung

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The outbreak of national disasters stimulates the decrease of the both internal and domestic tourism demands, causing bad effects on the hospitality industry. The effective and efficient risk management regarding national disasters are being increasingly required from the hospitality industry practitioners and the tourism policymakers. To establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy on national disasters, the most essential prerequisite condition is the correct estimation of national disasters’ effects in terms of the size and duration of the damages occurred from national disaster on hospitality industry. More specifically, the national disasters are twofold: natural disaster and social disaster. In addition, the hospitality industry has consisted of several types of business, such as hotel, restaurant, travel agency, etc. As reasons of the above, it is important to consider how each type of national disasters differently influences on the performance of each type of hospitality industry. Therefore, the purpose of this study is examining the effects of national disaster on hospitality industry in Korea based on the types of national disasters as well as the types of hospitality business. The monthly data was collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2016. The indexes of industrial production for each hospitality industry in Korea were used with the proxy variable for the performance of each hospitality industry. Two national disaster variables (natural disaster and social disaster) were treated as dummy variables. In addition, the exchange rate, industrial production index, and consumer price index were used as control variables in the research model. The impulse response analysis was used to examine the size and duration of the damages occurred from each type of national disaster on each type of hospitality industries. The results of this study show that the natural disaster and the social disaster differently influenced on each type of hospitality industry. More specifically, the performance of airline industry is negatively influenced by the natural disaster at the time of 3 months later from the incidence. However, the negative impacts of social disaster on airline industry occurred not significantly over the time periods. For the hotel industry, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of hotel industry at the time of 5 months and 6 months later, respectively. Also, the negative impact of natural disaster on the performance of restaurant industry occurred at the time of 5 months later, as well as for both 3 months and 6 months later for the social disaster. Finally, both natural disaster and social disaster negatively influence the performance of travel agency at the time of 3 months and 4 months later, respectively. In conclusion, the types of national disasters differently influence the performance of each type of hospitality industry in Korea. These results would provide an important information to establish the effective and efficient risk management strategy for the national disasters.

Keywords: impulse response analysis, Korea, national disaster, performance of hospitality industry

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Authors: Mayowa Philips Ibitola, Akinade-Solomon Olorunfemi, Abe Oluwaseun Banji

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Heavy minerals studies were carried out on eighteen sediment samples from Ologe lagoon located at Lagos Barrier complex, with the aim of evaluating the heavy mineral deposits and determining the provenance of the sediments. The samples were subjected to grain analysis techniques in order to collect the finest grain size. Separation of heavy minerals from the samples was done with the aid of bromoform to enable petrographic analyses of the heavy mineral suite, under the polarising microscope. The data obtained from the heavy mineral analysis were used in preparing histograms and pie chart, from which the individual heavy mineral percentage distribution and ZTR index were derived. The percentage composition of the individual heavy mineral analyzed are opaque mineral 63.92%, Zircon 12.43%, Tourmaline 5.79%, Rutile 13.44%, Garnet 1.74% and Staurolite 3.52%. The calculated zircon, tourmaline, rutile index in percentage (ZTR) varied between 76.13 -92.15%, average garnet-zircon index (GZI), average rutile-zircon index (RuZI) and average staurolite-zircon index values in all the stations are 16.18%, 54.33%, 25.11% respectively. The mean ZTR index percentage value is 85.17% indicates that the sediments within the lagoon are mineralogically matured. The high percentage of zircon, rutile, and tourmaline indicates an acid igneous rock source for the sediments. However, the low percentage of staurolite, rutile and garnet occurrence indicates sediment of metamorphic rock source input.

Keywords: lagoon, provenance, heavy mineral, ZTR index

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Authors: Xiaobin Liang, Wei Liang, Laibin Zhang, Xiaoyan Guo

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Pipelines pass through coal mined gobs inevitably in the mining area, the stability of which has great influence on the safety of pipelines. After extensive literature study and field research, it was found that there are a few risk assessment methods for coal mined gob pipelines, and there is a lack of data on the gob sites. Therefore, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is widely used based on expert opinions. However, the subjective opinions or lack of experience of individual experts may lead to inaccurate evaluation results. Hence the accuracy of the results needs to be further improved. This paper presents a comprehensive approach to achieve this purpose by combining bow-tie model and cloud inference. The specific evaluation process is as follows: First, a bow-tie model composed of a fault tree and an event tree is established to graphically illustrate the probability and consequence indicators of pipeline failure. Second, the interval estimation method can be scored in the form of intervals to improve the accuracy of the results, and the censored mean algorithm is used to remove the maximum and minimum values of the score to improve the stability of the results. The golden section method is used to determine the weight of the indicators and reduce the subjectivity of index weights. Third, the failure probability and failure consequence scores of the pipeline are converted into three numerical features by using cloud inference. The cloud inference can better describe the ambiguity and volatility of the results which can better describe the volatility of the risk level. Finally, the cloud drop graphs of failure probability and failure consequences can be expressed, which intuitively and accurately illustrate the ambiguity and randomness of the results. A case study of a coal mine gob pipeline carrying natural gas has been investigated to validate the utility of the proposed method. The evaluation results of this case show that the probability of failure of the pipeline is very low, the consequences of failure are more serious, which is consistent with the reality.

Keywords: bow-tie model, natural gas pipeline, coal mine gob, cloud inference

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Authors: Mehdi Fuladipanah

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Sensitivity analysis as a technique is applied to determine influential input factors on model output. Variance-based sensitivity analysis method has more application compared to other methods because of including linear and non-linear models. In this paper, van Rijn’s movable bed roughness formula was selected to evaluate because of its reasonable results in sandy rivers. This equation contains four variables as: flow depth, sediment size,bBed form height and bed form length. These variable’s importance was determined using the first order of Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test. Sensitivity index was applied to evaluate importance of factors. The first order FAST based sensitivity indices test, explain 90% of the total variance that is indicating acceptance criteria of FAST application. More value of this index is indicating more important variable. Results show that bed form height, bed form length, sediment size and flow depth are more influential factors with sensitivity index: 32%, 24%, 19% and 15% respectively.

Keywords: sdensitivity analysis, variance, movable bed roughness formula, Sandy River

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Authors: Joseph Uche Azubike, Evelyn Ngozi Agbasi, M. I. Ogbonna

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The audit committee of the board of directors could no longer handle the enterprise's risks. Therefore, a risk management committee was created to control them. Thus, this study examined how enterprise risk management committee characteristics affected Nigerian exchange-listed banks' financial performance from 2013 to 2022. The study's hypotheses and three objectives were to determine how enterprise risk management committee size, composition, and gender diversity affect Nigerian banks' performance. An ex-post facto study design collected secondary data from bank annual reports. We used descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and Ordinary least square regression to analyze panel data. Enterprise risk management committee size and composition had both negative and no significant effect on bank financial performance in Nigeria, whereas enterprise risk committee gender diversity has a 10% favorable effect. The report advises that adding more women with relevant knowledge to the risk committee to boost performance and allowing women to be at the lead of such risk management could improve bank performance in Nigeria since they are noted to be thorough in their tasks.

Keywords: bank, committee, enterprise, management, performance, risk

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Taha Anjamrooz, Salwa Bheiry

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The continuous increase in the world population, resource shortage and the warning of climate change cause various environmental and social issues to the world. Thus, sustainability concept is much needed nowadays. Organizations are progressively falling under strong worldwide pressure to integrate sustainability practices into their project decision-making development. Construction projects in the industry are amongst the most significant, since it is one of the biggest divisions and of main significance for the national economy and hence has a massive effect on the environment and society. So, it is important to discover approaches to incorporate sustainability into the management of those projects. This study presents a combined sustainability index of projects with sustainable transportation which has been formed as per a comprehensive literature review and survey study. Transportation systems enable the movement of goods and services worldwide, and it is leading to economic growth and creating jobs while creating negative impacts on the environment and society. This research is study to quantify the sustainability indicators, through 1) identifying the importance of sustainable transportation indicators that are based on the sustainable practices used for the construction projects and 2) measure the effectiveness of practices through these indicators on the three sustainable pillars. A total 26 sustainability indicators have been selected and grouped under each related sustainability pillars. A survey was used to collect the opinion about the sustainability indicators by a scoring system. A combined sustainability index considering three sustainable pillars can be helpful in evaluating the transportation sustainable practices of a project and making decisions regarding project selection. In addition to focus on the issue of financial resource allocation in a project selection, the decision-maker could take into account the sustainability as an important key in addition to the project’s return and risk. The purpose of this study is to measure the performance of transportation sustainability which allow companies to assess multiple projects selection. This is useful to decision makers to rank and focus more on future sustainable projects.

Keywords: sustainable transportation, transportation performances, sustainable indicators, sustainable construction practice, sustainability

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Authors: Odd Ivar Haugen

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This paper explores the relationship between assurance, risk, and risk management in the context of complex safety-related systems. It introduces a nuanced understanding of assurance and argues that the foundation for grounds for justified confidence in claims made about a complex system is related to the system behaviour. It emphasises the importance of knowledge as the cornerstone of assurance. The paper addresses the challenges of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties inherent in safety-critical systems. A systems approach is proposed to model emergent properties and complexity using the composition, environment, structure, mechanisms (CESM) metamodel, offering a structured framework for analysing system behaviour. The interplay between assurance and risk management is conceptualised through two models: the domain model and the control model. Assurance and risk management are mutually dependent on each other to reduce uncertainty and control risk levels. This work highlights the dual roles of assurance in risk management, acting as an epistemic actuator on the one side and providing feedback about the strength of the justification on the other. Assurance and risk management have inseparable roles in ensuring safety in complex systems.

Keywords: assurance, CESM metamodel, confidence, emergent properties, knowledge, objectivity, risk, system behaviour, system safety

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Ferdi Afian, Inne Yuliawati

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Background: The change in causes of death from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases also occurs in the aviation community in Indonesia. Non-communicable diseases are influenced by several internal risk factors, such as age, lifestyle changes and the presence of other diseases. These risk factors will increase the incidence of heart diseases resulting in the incapacity of Indonesian aviators which will disrupt flight safety. Method: The study was conducted by collecting secondary data. The retrieval of primary data was obtained from medical records at the Indonesian Aviation Health Center in 2016-2017. The subjects in this study were all cases of incapacity in Indonesian aviators medical conditions. Results: In this study, there were 15 cases of aviators in Indonesia who experienced incapacity of medical conditions related to heart and lung diseases in 2016-2017. Based on the secondary data contained in the flight medical records at the Aviation Health Center Aviation, it was found that several factors related to aviators incapacity causing its inability to carried out flight duties. Conclusion: Incapacity of Indonesian aviators medical conditions are most affected by the high value of Body Mass Index (86%) and less affected by high of Uric Acid in the blood (26%) and Hyperglycemia (26%).

Keywords: incapacity, aviators, flight, Indonesia

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Authors: E. Channol, O. Collet, N. Kostyuchyk, T. Mesbah, Quoc Hoang Long Nguyen

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In this paper, a pricing model is proposed for co-integrated commodities extending Larsson model. The futures formulae have been derived and tests have been performed with non-constant volatility. The model has been applied to energy commodities (gas, CO2, energy) and soft commodities (corn, wheat). Results show that non-constant volatility leads to more accurate short term prices, which provides better evaluation of value-at-risk and more generally improve the risk management.

Keywords: co-integration, soft commodities, risk management, value-at-risk

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

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Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Mehrdad Kamali-Sanzighi, Maziar Kamali-Sanzighi

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The aim of this research was to study zooplankton community density, diversity and Saprobi index in carp ponds at Golestan province, Gonbade Kavous city, Iran. Zooplankton sampling was done monthly in each pond during one carp culture time. Our analysis showed 27 genus from 4 groups (Protozoa 12, Rotatoria 8, Copepoda 4 and Cladocera 3). The highest and lowest frequency of zooplankton groups were belongs to Rotatoria, Copepoda, Cladocera and Protozoa with 46, 28, 23 and 3 percent, respectively. No significant differences between saprobi index of six carp ponds (P>0.05) were observed. Saprobi index indicated Class ßmesosaprob for six analysis ponds. There was a general tendency to decrease and significantly in the saprobi index with the value range of 1.52-1.70 from the beginning to end of the culture season (P<0.05). Also, gradual improvement of water quality observed toward the end of culture period and these reasons are partly a result of natural and management processed such as seasons changes (climate), water exchange (replacement of water) and pause of introduce of fertilizer materials to the ponds. According to the ability of saprobi index in monitoring of water quality condition and health of different water resources, focus to similar kind of effective research is necessary in future time.

Keywords: zooplankton, saprobi pollution index, water quality, fish pond, east of Golestan Province

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Authors: R. Berglund, T. Backström, M. Bellgran

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This study explores how management addresses psychosocial risks in seven teams of engineers and technicians in the midst of the fourth industrial revolution. The sample is from an ongoing quasi-experiment about psychosocial risk management in a manufacturing company in Sweden. Each of the seven teams belongs to one of two clusters: a positive cluster or a negative cluster. The positive cluster reports a significantly positive change in psychosocial risk levels between two time-points and the negative cluster reports a significantly negative change. The data are collected using semi-structured interviews. The results of the computer aided thematic analysis show that there are more differences than similarities when comparing the risk treatment actions taken between the two clusters. Findings show that the managers in the positive cluster use more enabling actions that foster and support formal and informal relationship building. In contrast, managers that use less enabling actions hinder the development of positive group processes and contribute negative changes in psychosocial risk levels. This exploratory study sheds some light on how management can influence significant positive and negative changes in psychosocial risk levels during a risk management process.

Keywords: group process model, risk treatment, risk management, psychosocial

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Authors: Marc Toutain, Pascale Leconte, Antoine Gauthier

Abstract:

Introduction: Eating Disorders (ED), such as anorexia, bulimia, and binge eating, are psychiatric illnesses that mostly affect young people. The main symptoms concern eating (restriction, excessive food intake) and weight control behaviors (laxatives, vomiting). Psychological comorbidities (depression, executive function disorders, etc.) and problematic behaviors toward physical activity (PA) are commonly associated with ED. Acquaintances on ED risk factors are still lacking, and more community sample studies are needed to improve prevention and early detection. To our knowledge, studies are needed to specifically investigate the link between ED risk level, PA, and psychological risk factors in a community sample of adolescents. The aim of this study is to assess the relation between ED risk level, exercise (type, frequency, and motivations for engaging in exercise), and psychological factors based on the Jacobi risk factors model. We suppose that a high risk of ED will be associated with the practice of high caloric cost PA, motivations oriented to weight and shape control, and psychological disturbances. Method: An online survey destined for students has been sent to several middle schools and colleges in northwest France. This survey combined several questionnaires, the Eating Attitude Test-26 assessing ED risk; the Exercise Motivation Inventory–2 assessing motivations toward PA; the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale assessing anxiety and depression, the Contour Drawing Rating Scale; and the Body Esteem Scale assessing body dissatisfaction, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale assessing self-esteem, the Exercise Dependence Scale-Revised assessing PA dependence, the Multidimensional Assessment of Interoceptive Awareness assessing interoceptive awareness and the Frost Multidimensional Perfectionism Scale assessing perfectionism. Machine learning analysis will be performed in order to constitute groups with a tree-based model clustering method, extract risk profile(s) with a bootstrap method comparison, and predict ED risk with a prediction method based on a decision tree-based model. Expected results: 1044 complete records have already been collected, and the survey will be closed at the end of May 2022. Records will be analyzed with a clustering method and a bootstrap method in order to reveal risk profile(s). Furthermore, a predictive tree decision method will be done to extract an accurate predictive model of ED risk. This analysis will confirm typical main risk factors and will give more data on presumed strong risk factors such as exercise motivations and interoceptive deficit. Furthermore, it will enlighten particular risk profiles with a strong level of proof and greatly contribute to improving the early detection of ED and contribute to a better understanding of ED risk factors.

Keywords: eating disorders, risk factors, physical activity, machine learning

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Authors: Basitah Taif

Abstract:

This study was to explore and utilize the fresh rind of mangosteen Index Colour 5 as an upcoming raw material for the production of natural dyes. Rind from the fresh mangosteen Index Colour 5 was utilized to extract the dyes. The established extracts were experimented on silk fabrics via three types of mordanting and dyeing procedures; pre-mordanting, simultaneous mordanting and post-mordanting. As a result, the applications of the freeze-drying methodology and mechanizable equipment have helped to produce excellent range of natural colours. Silk fabric treated simultaneously with mordanting and dyeing with extract dye Index Colour 5 produced a brilliant shade of the red colour and the colour from this index is also discovered sensitive to light and washing during the fastness tests. The preliminary evaluation and instrumentation analysis allowed us to examine whether the application of different mordanting and dyeing procedures with the same extract samples and concentrations affected the colours and shades of the fabric samples.

Keywords: natural dye, freeze-drying, Garcinia mangostana Linn, mordanting

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Authors: Andy Obinna Ibeje

Abstract:

In this study, the erodibility indices and some soil properties of some cassava farms in selected areas of Abia and Imo States were investigated. This study involves taking measurements of some soil parameters such as permeability, soil texture and particle size analysis from which the erodibility indices were compared. Results showed that soils of the areas are very sandy. The results showed that Isiukwuato with index of 72 has the highest erodibility index. The results also showed that Arondizuogu with index of 34 has the least erodibility index. The results revealed that soil erodibility (k) values varied from 34 to 72. Nkporo has the highest sand content; Inyishie has the least silt content. The result indicates that there were respectively strong inverse relationship between clay and silt contents and erodibility index. On the other hand, sand, organic matter and moisture contents as well as soil permeability has significantly high positive correlation with soil erodibility and it can be concluded that particle size distribution is a major finger print on the erodibility index of soil in the study area. It is recommended that safe cultural practices like crop rotation, matching and adoption of organic farming techniques be incorporated into farming communities of Abia and Imo States in order to stem the advances of erosion in the study area.

Keywords: erodibility, indices, soil, sand

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Authors: Kiknadze T, Tevdorashvili G, Muzashvili T, Gachechiladze M, Burkadze G

Abstract:

Uterine leiomyomas decrease the quality of life by causing significant morbidity among women of reproductive age. Histologically various types of leiomyoma's can be differentiated. We have analysed th histopathological, proliferation, apoptotic, and hormonal profile in different types of leiomyomas. Study included altogether140 cases distributed into the following groups: group I-normal myometrium (20cases), group II-classic leiomyoma (69 cases), group III-cellular leiomyoma (15 cases), group IV-bizarre cell/atypical leiomyoma (22cases), group V-smooth muscle tumors of uncertain malignancy potential (STUMP) (8 cases) and group VI-leiomyosarcoma (6 cases). Together with classic histopathological features such as nuclear atypia, cellularity, presence of mitoses, vasculature and necrosis, immunohistochemical phenotype using antibodies against Ki67,Cas3, ER, and PR were analysed. The results of our study showed that leiomyomas are charterised with variable histopathological and immunohistocthemical phenotype. Histopathological parameters mainly correlate with the degree of malignancy except for two bizarre/atypical leiomyoma and STUMP, where two distinct subgroups could be identified. In bizarre/ atipycal leiomyoma, 31% of cases are characterized with the features of classic leiomyoma, whilst the rest of the cases reveal more atipycal phenotype. In STUMP 37.5 % of cases are characterized with the features of atipycal leiomyomas. The result of the immunohistochemical study also reveald that half of bizarre/atipycal leiomyomas are characterized with the low proliferation index, high apoptotic index, and high ER and PR index, whilst another half is characterized with high proliferation index, low apoptotic index, and low ER and PR index. Similarly, part of the STUMP cases are characterized with low proliferation index, high Er, and PR index and whilst part of the cases are characterized whith high proliferation index, low apoptotic index and low ER and PR index. The results of the histopathological and immunohistochemical study indicate that these two entities represent the heterogenous group of diseases, which might be the explanation of their different prognosis. Presented histopathological and immunohistochemical features should be considered in the diagnosis of myometrial smooth muscle tumors.

Keywords: proliferation, apoptosis, bizarre cell, leiomyosarcoma., leiomyoma

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Authors: R. Komsa-Penkova, G. Golemanov, G. Georgieva, K. Popovski, N. Slavov, P. Ivanov, K. Kovacheva, S. Rathee, E. Konova, A. Blajev

Abstract:

Leptin and PAI-1 are important cytokines and may play a role in the regulation of PCOS development. PCOS is frequently associated with obesity, high BMI index and consequently with increased risk of metabolic disorders. The aim of the present study was to evaluate PAI-1 levels, genetic influence of the carriage of 675 4G/5G polymorphism in PAI-1 gene and leptin as a marker of obesity in the development of PCOS. Methods: Genotyping in 84 patients with PCOS and PCO and 100 healthy control subjects to detect single nucleotide deletion 675 G in the promoter of PAI-1 gene. The present study provides evidence that SNP 4G in the PAI-1 gene is associated with early pregnancy losses in patients with polycystosis. Further to this, there is a correlation between leptin levels, PAI-1 levels and BMI in the patients with PCOS, which confirms the role of obesity as a risk factor for PCOS.

Keywords: carriage of 675 4G/5G polymorphism, PCOS, early pregnancy losses, PAI-1 gene

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Authors: Beatrice Wamuyu Muchiri, Monika M. L. Dos Santos

Abstract:

An increasingly recognised prevention approach for substance use entails reduction in risk factors and enhancement of promotive or protective factors in individuals and the environment surrounding them during their growth and development. However, in order to enhance the effectiveness of this approach, continuous study of risk aspects targeting different cultures, social groups and mixture of society has been recommended. This study evaluated the impact of potential risk and protective factors associated with family management and relations on adolescent substance abuse in South Africa. Exploratory analysis and cumulative odds ordinal logistic regression modelling was performed on the data while controlling for demographic and socio-economic characteristics on adolescent substance use. The most intensely used substances were tobacco, cannabis, cocaine, heroin and alcohol in decreasing order of use intensity. The specific protective or risk impact of family management or relations factors varied from substance to substance. Risk factors associated with demographic and socio-economic factors included being male, younger age, being in lower education grades, coloured ethnicity, adolescents from divorced parents and unemployed or fully employed mothers. Significant family relations risk and protective factors against substance use were classified as either family functioning and conflict or family bonding and support. Several family management factors, categorised as parental monitoring, discipline, behavioural control and rewards, demonstrated either risk or protective effect on adolescent substance use. Some factors had either interactive risk or protective impact on substance use or lost significance when analysed jointly with other factors such as controlled variables. Interaction amongst risk or protective factors as well as the type of substance should be considered when further considering interventions based on these risk or protective factors. Studies in other geographical regions, institutions and with better gender balance are recommended to improve upon the representativeness of the results. Several other considerations to be made when formulating interventions, the shortcomings of this study and possible improvements as well as future studies are also suggested.

Keywords: risk factors, protective factors, substance use, adolescents

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