Search results for: empirical estimator

Authors: Brady Manescau, Ilyas Sellami, Khaled Chetehouna, Charles De Izarra, Rachid Nait-Said, Fati Zidani

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During a fire in an oil and gas refinery, several thermal accidents can occur and cause serious damage to people and environment. Among these accidents, the BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) is most observed and remains a major concern for risk decision-makers. It corresponds to a violent vaporization of explosive nature following the rupture of a vessel containing a liquid at a temperature significantly higher than its normal boiling point at atmospheric pressure. Their effects on the environment generally appear in three ways: blast overpressure, radiation from the fireball if the liquid involved is flammable and fragment hazards. In order to estimate the potential damage that would be caused by such an explosion, risk decision-makers often use quantitative risk analysis (QRA). This analysis is a rigorous and advanced approach that requires a reliable data in order to obtain a good estimate and control of risks. However, in most cases, the data used in QRA are obtained from the empirical correlations. These empirical correlations generally overestimate BLEVE effects because they are based on simplifications and do not take into account real parameters like the geometry effect. Considering that these risk analyses are based on an assessment of BLEVE effects on human life and plant equipment, more precise and reliable data should be provided. From this point of view, the CFD modeling of BLEVE effects appears as a solution to the empirical law limitations. In this context, the main objective is to develop a numerical tool in order to predict BLEVE thermal effects using the CFD code FDS version 6. Simulations are carried out with a mesh size of 1 m. The fireball source is modeled as a vertical release of hot fuel in a short time. The modeling of fireball dynamics is based on a single step combustion using an EDC model coupled with the default LES turbulence model. Fireball characteristics (diameter, height, heat flux and lifetime) issued from the large scale BAM experiment are used to demonstrate the ability of FDS to simulate the various steps of the BLEVE phenomenon from ignition up to total burnout. The influence of release parameters such as the injection rate and the radiative fraction on the fireball heat flux is also presented. Predictions are very encouraging and show good agreement in comparison with BAM experiment data. In addition, a numerical study is carried out on an operational propane accumulator in an Algerian gas processing plant of SONATRACH company located in the Hassi R’Mel Gas Field (the largest gas field in Algeria).

Keywords: BLEVE effects, CFD, FDS, fireball, LES, QRA

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Authors: Katarzyna Piwowar-Sulej

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The functioning of a project-oriented organisation creates new and different, from the traditional ones, conditions for human resources management. In the analysed case HRM is primarily characterized by a double-track nature – on the one hand within the framework of permanent structures (departments) and, on the other, within the area of particular projects. The purpose of the article is to present the dilemmas associated with the development of selected HRM areas in project-oriented organisations. Theoretical discussion was supplemented by the results of empirical research.

Keywords: human resources management, tracks of HRM, project, project-oriented organisation

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Authors: Rohini Sharma, Chandan Kumar Sahoo, Rama Krishna Gupta Potnuru

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Strong competitive forces and requirements to achieve efficiency are forcing the organizations to realize the necessity and inevitability of change. What's more, the trend does not appear to be abating. Researchers have estimated that about two thirds of change project fails. Empirical evidences further shows that organizations invest significantly in the planned change but people side is accounted for in a token or instrumental way, which is identified as one of the important reason, why change endeavours fail. However, whatever be the reason for change, organizational change readiness must be gauged prior to the institutionalization of organizational change. Hence, in this study the influence of employee voice and employee involvement on organizational change readiness via commitment-to-change is examined, as it is an area yet to be extensively studied. Also, though a recent study has investigated the interrelationship between leadership, organizational change readiness and commitment to change, our study further examined these constructs in relation with employee voice and employee involvement that plays a consequential role for organizational change readiness. Further, integrated conceptual model weaving varied concepts relating to organizational readiness with focus on commitment to change as mediator was found to be an area, which required more theorizing and empirical validation, and this study rooted in an Indian public sector organization is a step in this direction. Data for the study were collected through a survey among employees of Rourkela Steel Plant (RSP), a unit of Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL); the first integrated Steel Plant in the public sector in India, for which stratified random sampling method was adopted. The schedule was distributed to around 700 employees, out of which 516 complete responses were obtained. The pre-validated scales were used for the study. All the variables in the study were measured on a five-point Likert scale ranging from “strongly disagree (1)” to “strongly agree (5)”. Structural equation modeling (SEM) using AMOS 22 was used to examine the hypothesized model, which offers a simultaneous test of an entire system of variables in a model. The study results shows that inter-relationship between employee voice and commitment-to-change, employee involvement and commitment-to-change and commitment-to-change and organizational change readiness were significant. To test the mediation hypotheses, Baron and Kenny’s technique was used. Examination of direct and mediated effect of mediators confirmed that commitment-to-change partially mediated the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. Furthermore, study results also affirmed that commitment-to-change does not mediate the relation between employee involvement and organizational change readiness. The empirical exploration therefore establishes that it is important to harness employee’s valuable suggestions regarding change for building organizational change readiness. Regarding employee involvement, it was found that sharing information and involving people in decision-making, leads to a creation of participative climate, which educes employee commitment during change and commitment-to-change further, fosters organizational change readiness.

Keywords: commitment-to-change, change management, employee voice, employee involvement, organizational change readiness

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Authors: Sinan Yapici, Hayrettin Eroglu

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The discharge of the aqueous radionuclides wastes used for the diagnoses of diseases and treatments of patients in nuclear medicine can cause fatal health problems when the radionuclides and its stable daughter component mix with underground water. Tl-201, which is one of the radionuclides commonly used in the nuclear medicine, is a toxic substance and is converted to its stable daughter component Hg-201, which is also a poisonous heavy metal: Tl201 → Hg201 + Gamma Ray [135-167 Kev (12%)] + X Ray [69-83 Kev (88%)]; t1/2 = 73,1 h. The purpose of the present work was to remove Tl-201 radionuclides from aqueous solution by biosorption on the solid bio wastes of food and cosmetic industry as bio sorbents of prina from an olive oil plant, rose residue from a rose oil plant and tea residue from a tea plant, and to make a comparison of the biosorption efficiencies. The effects of the biosorption temperature, initial pH of the aqueous solution, bio sorbent dose, particle size and stirring speed on the biosorption yield were investigated in a batch process. It was observed that the biosorption is a rapid process with an equilibrium time less than 10 minutes for all the bio sorbents. The efficiencies were found to be close to each other and measured maximum efficiencies were 93,30 percent for rose residue, 94,1 for prina and 98,4 for tea residue. In a temperature range of 283 and 313 K, the adsorption decreased with increasing temperature almost in a similar way. In a pH range of 2-10, increasing pH enhanced biosorption efficiency up to pH=7 and then the efficiency remained constant in a similar path for all the biosorbents. Increasing stirring speed from 360 to 720 rpm enhanced slightly the biosorption efficiency almost at the same ratio for all bio sorbents. Increasing particle size decreased the efficiency for all biosorbent; however the most negatively effected biosorbent was prina with a decrease in biosorption efficiency from about 84 percent to 40 with an increase in the nominal particle size 0,181 mm to 1,05 while the least effected one, tea residue, went down from about 97 percent to 87,5. The biosorption efficiencies of all the bio sorbents increased with increasing biosorbent dose in the range of 1,5 to 15,0 g/L in a similar manner. The fit of the experimental results to the adsorption isotherms proved that the biosorption process for all the bio sorbents can be represented best by Freundlich model. The kinetic analysis showed that all the processes fit very well to pseudo second order rate model. The thermodynamics calculations gave ∆G values between -8636 J mol-1 and -5378 for tea residue, -5313 and -3343 for rose residue, and -5701 and -3642 for prina with a ∆H values of -39516 J mol-1, -23660 and -26190, and ∆S values of -108.8 J mol-1 K-1, -64,0, -72,0 respectively, showing spontaneous and exothermic character of the processes. An empirical biosorption model in the following form was derived for each biosorbent as function of the parameters and time, taking into account the form of kinetic model, with regression coefficients over 0.9990 where At is biosorbtion efficiency at any time and Ae is the equilibrium efficiency, t is adsorption period as s, ko a constant, pH the initial acidity of biosorption medium, w the stirring speed as s-1, S the biosorbent dose as g L-1, D the particle size as m, and a, b, c, and e are the powers of the parameters, respectively, E a constant containing activation energy and T the temperature as K.

Keywords: radiation, diosorption, thallium, empirical modelling

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Authors: Łukasz Bis

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The author is going to discuss virtual reality and its importance for new didactic methods. It has been known for years that experience-based education gives much better results in terms of long-term memory than theoretical study. However, practice is expensive - virtual reality allows the use of an empirical approach to learning, with minimized production costs. The author defines what makes a given VR experience appropriate (adequate) for the didactic and cognitive process. The article is a kind of a list of guidelines and their importance for the VR experience under development.

Keywords: virtual reality, education, universal design, guideline

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Authors: Aminah Abdullah, Iqbal Khadaroo

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This paper investigates to what ends, how and by whom museums and art galleries in the UK are governed, and to whom they provide accounts to justify their behavior and activities. A theoretical framework is developed by drawing from the governance and accountability literature and is fleshed out by using empirical data from secondary sources. The findings show that the governance model used, informed by the new public management (NPM) philosophy, and has created tensions between the managerial and social forms of accountability. Museums and art galleries have adopted a managerial culture of getting done what gets measured.

Keywords: governance, accountability, UK museums and art galleries, public sector

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Authors: Yosra Ben Salah, Wang Li Jun, Salem Bellil

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The village Hammem Zriba is a lost little paradise in the middle of a beautiful landscape that captures the eyes of every visitor. The village alone is a rich expression of different elements such as urban, architecture, technical and vernacular elements, as well as sociological, spiritual and religious behaviors. This heritage is in degrading conditions and is threatened by disappearing soon; thus, actions have to be taken as soon as possible to preserve this heritage, record, analyze and learn from its traditional ways of construction. The strategy of this study is to examine the architecture within the Berber society over a period of time and influenced by a certain location and its relationship to the social and cultural aspects; this research will focus on historical, environmental, social and cultural aspects influencing architecture. The contents of this paper should mainly be constructed by three successive layouts of historical view, a cultural view and an architectural view that will include the urban and domestic scale. This research relies on the integration of both theoretical and empirical investigations. On the theoretical level: A documentary analysis of secondary data is used. Documentary analysis means content analysis of the relevant documents that include books, journals, magazines, archival data, and field survey and observations. On the empirical level: analysis of these traditional ways of planning and house building will be carried out. Through the Analysis, three techniques will be employed to collect primary data. These techniques are; systematic analysis of the architectural drawings, quantitative analysis to the houses statistics, and a direct observation. Through this research, the technical, architectural and urban achievements of the Berber people who represent a part of the general history and architectural history will be emphasized. And on a second point the potential for the sustainability present in this traditional urban planning and housing to be used to formulate guidelines for modern urban and housing development.

Keywords: culture, history, traditional architecture, values

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Authors: R. Ziaie Moayed, S. Taghvamanesh

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So far several methods by different researchers have been developed in order to calculate the bearing capacity factors of foundations and retaining walls. In this paper, the bearing capacity factor Ny (shape factor) for different types of foundation have been investigated. The formula for bearing capacity on c–φ–γ soil can still be expressed by Terzaghi’s equation except that the bearing capacity factor Ny depends on the surcharge ratio, and friction angle φ. Many empirical definitions have been used for measurement of the bearing capacity factors N

Keywords: bearing capacity, bearing capacity factor Nγ, irregular foundations, shape factor

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Authors: Muhammed Shahriar Haque

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As an offshoot of journalistic discourse, the documentary should be objective in nature without harbouring any preconceived notion to foster ulterior motifs. When it comes to a social issue like rape in South Asian countries, as media in recent times is inundated with this violent act in India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, how does one document it in terms of objectivity and subjectivity? The objective of this study is twofold: to document the history of documentaries, and to critically analyze South Asian rape/flesh trade-documentaries. The overall goal is to trace the (re/de)construction of objectivity-subjectivity in documentaries. This paper adopts a qualitative approach to documentarist discourse through the lens of critical discourse analysis (CDA). Data was gathered for 10 documentaries on the theme of rape and/or flesh trade from eight South Asian countries, predominantly the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region. The documentaries were primarily categorised by using three frameworks based on six modes, six subgenres, and four basic approaches of documentary. Subsequently, the findings were critiqued from CDA perspective. The outcome suggests that there a two schools of thoughts regarding documentaries. According to journalistic ethics, news and/or documentaries should be objective in orientation and focus on informing the audience and/common people. The empirical findings tend to challenge ethical parameters of objectivity. At times, it seems that journalistic discourse is discursively (re)constructed to give an augmented simulation of objectivity. Based on the findings it may be recommended that if documentaries steer away from empirical facts and indulge in poetic naivety, their credibility could be questioned. A research of this nature is significant as it raises questions with regard to ethical and moral conscience of documentary filmmakers. Furthermore, it looks at whether they uphold journalistic integrity or succumb to their bias, and thereby depict subjective views, which could be tainted with political and/or propagandist ulterior motifs.

Keywords: discursive (re/de)construction, documentaries, journalistic integrity, rape/flesh trade

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Authors: O. S. Ebrahim, K. O. Shawky, M. O. S. Ebrahim, P. K. Jain

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Induction Motor (IM) driving pump is the main consumer of electricity in a typical fluid transportation system (FTS). It was illustrated that changing the connection of the stator windings from delta to star at no load could achieve noticeable active and reactive energy savings. This paper proposes a supervisory hysteresis liquid-level control with three-state energy saving mode (ESM) for IM in FTS including storage tank. The IM pump drive comprises modified star/delta switch and hydromantic coupler. Three-state ESM is defined, along with the normal running, and named analog to computer ESMs as follows: Sleeping mode in which the motor runs at no load with delta stator connection, hibernate mode in which the motor runs at no load with a star connection, and motor shutdown is the third energy saver mode. A logic flow-chart is synthesized to select the motor state at no-load for best energetic cost reduction, considering the motor thermal capacity used. An artificial neural network (ANN) state estimator, based on the recurrent architecture, is constructed and learned in order to provide fault-tolerant capability for the supervisory controller. Sequential test of Wald is used for sensor fault detection. Theoretical analysis, preliminary experimental testing and, computer simulations are performed to show the effectiveness of the proposed control in terms of reliability, power quality and energy/coenergy cost reduction with the suggestion of power factor correction.

Keywords: ANN, ESM, IM, star/delta switch, supervisory control, FT, reliability, power quality

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Authors: Joonas Pääkkönen

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In sports, individuals and teams are typically interested in final rankings. Final results, such as times or distances, dictate these rankings, also known as places. Places can be further associated with ordered random variables, commonly referred to as order statistics. In this work, we introduce a simple, yet accurate order statistical ordinal regression function that predicts relay race places with changeover-times. We call this function the Fenton-Wilkinson Order Statistics model. This model is built on the following educated assumption: individual leg-times follow log-normal distributions. Moreover, our key idea is to utilize Fenton-Wilkinson approximations of changeover-times alongside an estimator for the total number of teams as in the notorious German tank problem. This original place regression function is sigmoidal and thus correctly predicts the existence of a small number of elite teams that significantly outperform the rest of the teams. Our model also describes how place increases linearly with changeover-time at the inflection point of the log-normal distribution function. With real-world data from Jukola 2019, a massive orienteering relay race, the model is shown to be highly accurate even when the size of the training set is only 5% of the whole data set. Numerical results also show that our model exhibits smaller place prediction root-mean-square-errors than linear regression, mord regression and Gaussian process regression.

Keywords: Fenton-Wilkinson approximation, German tank problem, log-normal distribution, order statistics, ordinal regression, orienteering, sports analytics, sports modeling

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Authors: Alfiah Hasanah, Silvia Mendolia, Oleg Yerokhin

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This paper explores the impacts of adult child migration on the health of elderly parents left behind. The maternal and children health are a priority of health-related policy in most low and middle-income country, and so there is lack of evidence on the health of older population particularly in Indonesia. With increasing life expectancy and limited access to social security and social services for the elderly in this country, the consequences of increasing number of out-migration of adult children to parent health are important to investigate. This study use Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), the only large-scale continuing longitudinal socioeconomic and health survey that based on a sample of households representing about 83 percent of the Indonesian population in its first wave. Using four waves of IFLS including the recent wave of 2014, several indicators of the self-rated health status, interviewer-rated health status and days of illness are used to estimate the impact of labour out-migration of adult children on parent health status. Incorporate both individual fixed effects to control for unobservable factors in migrant and non-migrant households and the ordered response of self-rated health, this study apply the ordered logit of “Blow-up and Cluster” (BUC ) estimator. The result shows that labour out-migration of adult children significantly improves the self-rated health status of the elderly parent left behind. Findings of this study are consistent with the view that migration increases family resources and contribute to better health care and nutrition of the family left behind.

Keywords: aging, migration, panel data, self-rated health

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Authors: Lejla Sunagic

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The aim of the manuscript is to further the understanding of risky decision-making in the context of forced and irregular migration. The empirical evidence is collected through interviews with Syrian refugees who arrived in Europe via irregular pathways. Analytically, it has been approached through the juxtaposition between risk perception and the notion of desire. As different frameworks have been developed to address differences in risk perception, the common thread was the understanding that individual risk-taking has been addressed in terms of benefits outweighing risks. However, this framework cannot explain a big risk an individual takes because of an underprivileged position and due to a lack of positive alternatives, termed as risk-taking from vulnerability. The accounts of the field members of this study that crossed the sea in rubber boats to arrive in Europe make an empirical fit to such a postulate by reporting that the risk they have taken was not the choice but the only coping strategy. However, the vulnerability argument falls short of explaining why the interviewees, thinking retrospectively, find the risky journey they have taken to be worth it, while they would strongly advise others to restrain from taking such a huge risk. This inconsistency has been addressed by adding the notion of desire to migrate to the elements of risk perception. Desire, as a subjective experience, was what made the risk appear smaller in cost-benefit analysis at the time of decision-making of those who have realized migration. However, when they reflect on others in the context of potential migration via the same pathway, the interviewees addressed the others’ lack of capacity to avoid the same obstacles that they themselves were able to circumvent while omitting to reflect on others’ desire to migrate. Thus, in the risk-benefit analysis performed for others, the risk remains unblurred and tips over the benefits, given the inability to take into account the desire of others. If desire, as the transformative potential of migration, is taken out of the cost-benefit analysis of irregular migration, refugees might not have taken the risky journey. By casting the theoretical argument in the language of configuration, the study is filling in the gap of knowledge on the combination of migration drivers and the way they interact and produce migration outcomes.

Keywords: refugees, risk perception, desire, irregular migration

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Authors: Cristian Matti, Valerie Fowles, Eva Enyedi, Piotr Pogorzelski

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The system mapping process can be defined as a knowledge service where a team of facilitators, experts and practitioners facilitate a guided conversation, enable the exchange of information and support an iterative curation process. System mapping processes rely on science-based tools to introduce and simplify a variety of components and concepts of socio-technical systems through metaphors while facilitating an interactive dialogue process to enable the design of co-created maps. System maps work then as “artifacts” to provide information and focus the conversation into specific areas around the defined challenge and related decision-making process. Knowledge management facilitates the curation of that data gathered during the system mapping sessions through practices of documentation and subsequent knowledge co-production for which common practices from data science are applied to identify new patterns, hidden insights, recurrent loops and unexpected elements. This study presents empirical evidence on the application of these techniques to explore mechanisms by which visual tools provide guiding principles to portray system components, key variables and types of data through the lens of climate change. In addition, data science facilitates the structuring of elements that allow the analysis of layers of information through affinity and clustering analysis and, therefore, develop simple indicators for supporting the decision-making process. This paper addresses methodological and empirical elements on the horizontal learning process that integrate system mapping through visual tools, interpretation, cognitive transformation and analysis. The process is designed to introduce practitioners to simple iterative and inclusive processes that create actionable knowledge and enable a shared understanding of the system in which they are embedded.

Keywords: indicators, knowledge management, system mapping, visual tools

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Authors: Maja Ruzic-Baf, Vedrana Keteles, Andrea Debeljuh

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Younger and younger children are now using a smartphone, a device which has become ‘a must have’ and the life of children would be almost ‘unthinkable’ without one. Devices are becoming lighter and lighter but offering an array of options and applications as well as the unavoidable access to the Internet, without which it would be almost unusable. Numerous features such as taking of photographs, listening to music, information search on the Internet, access to social networks, usage of some of the chatting and messaging services, are only some of the numerous features offered by ‘smart’ devices. They have replaced the alarm clock, home phone, camera, tablet and other devices. Their use and possession have become a part of the everyday image of young people. Apart from the positive aspects, the use of smartphones has also some downsides. For instance, free time was usually spent in nature, playing, doing sports or other activities enabling children an adequate psychophysiological growth and development. The greater usage of smartphones during classes to check statuses on social networks, message your friends, play online games, are just some of the possible negative aspects of their application. Considering that the age of the population using smartphones is decreasing and that smartphones are no longer ‘foreign’ to children of pre-school age (smartphones are used at home or in coffee shops or shopping centers while waiting for their parents, playing video games often inappropriate to their age), particular attention must be paid to a very sensitive group, the teenagers who almost never separate from their ‘pets’. This paper is divided into two sections, theoretical and empirical ones. The theoretical section gives an overview of the pros and cons of the usage of smartphones, while the empirical section presents the results of a research conducted in three elementary schools regarding the usage of smartphones and, specifically, their usage during classes, during breaks and to search information on the Internet, check status updates and 'likes’ on the Facebook social network.

Keywords: education, smartphone, social networks, teenagers

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Authors: Baikunthanath Sahoo, Santosh Kumar Sahu, Krishna Malakar

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With the essence of global environmental sustainability and green business management, the wind of business research moved towards Corporate Social Responsibility. In addition to international and national treaties, businesses have also started realising environmental protection and energy efficiency through CSR as part of business strategy in response to climate change. Considering the ambitious emission reduction target and rapid economic development of India, this study is an attempt to explore the effect of CSR on the energy efficiency management of manufacturing firms in India. By using firm-level data, the panel fixed effect model shows that the CSR dummy variable is negatively influencing the energy intensity or technically, they are energy efficient. The result demonstrates that in the presence of CSR, all the production economic variables are significant. The result also shows that doing environmental expenditure does not improve energy efficiency might be because very few firms are motivated to do such expenditure and also not common to all sectors. The interactive effect model result conforms that without considering CSR dummy as an intervening variable only Manufacturers of Chemical and Chemical products, Manufacturers of Pharmaceutical, medical chemical, and botanical products firms energy intensity low but after considering CSR in their business practices all six sub-sector firms become energy efficient. The empirical result also validate that firms are continuously engaged in CSR activities they are highly energy efficient. It is an important motivational factor for firms to become economically and environmentally sustainable in the corporate world. This analysis would help business practitioners to know how to manage today’s profitability and tomorrow’s sustainability to achieve a comparative advantage in the emerging market economy. The paper concludes that reducing energy consumption as part of their social responsibility to care for the environment, will need collaborative efforts of business society and policy bodies.

Keywords: CSR, Energy Efficiency, Indian manufacturing Sector, Business strategy

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Authors: Tiantian Feng

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There is a dearth of research on the literary circle as a teaching strategy in English as a Foreign Language (EFL) classes in Chinese colleges and universities and even fewer empirical studies on its impacts. In this one-quarter, design-based project, the researcher aims to increase students’ engagement, cooperation, and, on top of that, reading comprehension performance by utilizing a researcher-developed, adapted reading circle model in an EFL reading course at a Chinese college. The model also integrated team-based learning and portfolio assessment, with an emphasis on the specialization of individual responsibilities, contributions, and outcomes in reading projects, with the goal of addressing current issues in EFL classes at Chinese colleges, such as passive learning, test orientation, ineffective and uncooperative teamwork, and lack of dynamics. In this quasi-experimental research, two groups of students enrolled in the course were invited to participate in four in-class team projects, with the intervention class following the adapted literature circle model and team members rotating as Leader, Coordinator, Brain trust, and Reporter. The researcher/instructor used a sequential explanatory mixed-methods approach to quantitatively analyze the final grades for the pre-and post-tests, as well as individual scores for team projects and will code students' artifacts in the next step, with the results to be reported in a subsequent paper(s). Initial analysis showed that both groups saw an increase in final grades, but the intervention group enjoyed a more significant boost, suggesting that the adapted reading circle model is effective in improving students’ reading comprehension performance. This research not only closes the empirical research gap of literature circles in college EFL classes in China but also adds to the pool of effective ways to optimize reading comprehension performance and class performance in college EFL classes.

Keywords: literature circle, EFL teaching, college english reading, reading comprehension

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan

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Hydroclimatic observation values ​​are used in the planning of the project of water resources. Climate variables are the first of the values ​​used in planning projects. At the same time, the climate system is a complex and interactive system involving the atmosphere, land surfaces, snow and bubbles, the oceans and other water structures. The amount and distribution of precipitation, which is an important climate parameter, is a limiting environmental factor for dispersed living things. Trend analysis is applied to the detection of the presence of a pattern or trend in the data set. Many trends work in different parts of the world are usually made for the determination of climate change. The detection and attribution of past trends and variability in climatic variables is essential for explaining potential future alteration resulting from anthropogenic activities. Parametric and non-parametric tests are used for determining the trends in climatic variables. In this study, trend tests were applied to annual total precipitation data obtained in period of 1972 and 2012, in the Konya Basin. Non-parametric trend tests, (Sen’s T, Spearman’s Rho, Mann-Kendal, Sen’s T trend, Wald-Wolfowitz) and parametric test (mean square) were applied to annual total precipitations of 15 stations for trend analysis. The linear slopes (change per unit time) of trends are calculated by using a non-parametric estimator developed by Sen. The beginning of trends is determined by using the Mann-Kendall rank correlation test. In addition, homogeneities in precipitation trends are tested by using a method developed by Van Belle and Hughes. As a result of tests, negative linear slopes were found in annual total precipitations in Konya.

Keywords: trend analysis, precipitation, hydroclimatology, Konya

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Authors: Venkatesh Kumar, Kasun Hewage, Rehan Sadiq

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Residential buildings consume significant amounts of energy and produce a large amount of emissions and waste. However, there is a substantial potential for energy savings in this sector which needs to be evaluated over the life cycle of residential buildings. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology has been employed to study the primary energy uses and associated environmental impacts of different phases (i.e., product, construction, use, end of life, and beyond building life) for residential buildings. Four different alternatives of residential buildings in Vancouver (BC, Canada) with a 50-year lifespan have been evaluated, including High Rise Apartment (HRA), Low Rise Apartment (LRA), Single family Attached House (SAH), and Single family Detached House (SDH). Life cycle performance of the buildings is evaluated for embodied energy, embodied environmental impacts, operational energy, operational environmental impacts, total life-cycle energy, and total life cycle environmental impacts. Estimation of operational energy and LCA are performed using DesignBuilder software and Athena Impact estimator software respectively. The study results revealed that over the life span of the buildings, the relationship between the energy use and the environmental impacts are identical. LRA is found to be the best alternative in terms of embodied energy use and embodied environmental impacts; while, HRA showed the best life-cycle performance in terms of minimum energy use and environmental impacts. Sensitivity analysis has also been carried out to study the influence of building service lifespan over 50, 75, and 100 years on the relative significance of embodied energy and total life cycle energy. The life-cycle energy requirements for SDH is found to be a significant component among the four types of residential buildings. The overall disclose that the primary operations of these buildings accounts for 90% of the total life cycle energy which far outweighs minor differences in embodied effects between the buildings.

Keywords: building simulation, environmental impacts, life cycle assessment, life cycle energy analysis, residential buildings

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Authors: Kolesnik Nadezda A.

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The research aims to elaborate inter-organizational network relationships management model to maximize value co-creation. We propose a network management framework that requires evaluation of network partners with respect to their position and role in network; and elaboration of appropriate relationship development strategy with partners in network. Empirical research and approval is based on the case study method, including structured in-depth interviews with the companies from b2b market.

Keywords: inter-organizational networks, value co-creation, model, B2B market

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Authors: Masoud Ghaemi, MohammadJafar Hedayati, Faezeh Yousefzadeh, Hoseinali Heydarzadeh

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According to the statistics of the International Committee on Large Dams, internal erosion and piping (scour) are major causes of the destruction of earth-fill dams. If such dams are constructed in narrow valleys, the valley walls will increase the arching of the dam body due to the transfer of vertical and horizontal stresses, so the occurrence of hydraulic fracturing in these embankments is more likely. Roudbar Dam in Lorestan is a clay-core pebble earth-fill dam constructed in a relatively narrow valley in western Iran. Three years after the onset of impoundment, there has been a fall in dam behavior. Evaluation of the dam behavior based on the data recorded on the instruments installed inside the dam body and foundation confirms the occurrence of internal erosion in the lower and adjacent parts of the core on the left support (abutment). The phenomenon of hydraulic fracturing is one of the main causes of the onset of internal erosion in this dam. Accordingly, the main objective of this paper is to evaluate the validity of this hypothesis. To evaluate the validity of this hypothesis, the dam behavior during construction and impoundment has been first simulated with a three-dimensional numerical model. Then, using validated empirical equations, the safety factor of the occurrence of hydraulic fracturing phenomenon upstream of the dam score was calculated. Then, using the artificial neural network, the failure time of the given section was predicted based on the maximum stress trend created. The study results show that steep slopes of valley walls, sudden changes in coefficient, and differences in compressibility properties of dam body materials have caused considerable stress transfer from core to adjacent valley walls, especially at its lower levels. This has resulted in the coefficient of confidence of the occurrence of hydraulic fracturing in each of these areas being close to one in each of the empirical equations used.

Keywords: arching, artificial neural network, FLAC3D, hydraulic fracturing, internal erosion, pore water pressure

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Authors: Yu Zhao, Min Zhang, Yuanqian Wang, Qiuyu Yu

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The prediction of aesthetics of apparel is helpful for the development of a new type of apparel. This study is to build the quantitative relationship between the aesthetics and its design parameters. In particular, women’s pants have been preliminarily studied. This aforementioned relationship has been carried out by statistical analysis. The contributions of this study include the development of a more personalized apparel design mechanism and the provision of some empirical knowledge for the development of other products in the aspect of aesthetics.

Keywords: aesthetics, crease line, cropped straight leg pants, knee width

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Authors: Hazel Pettifor, Charlie Wilson, David Mccollum, Oreane Edelenbosch

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Vehicle purchase is a technology adoption decision that will strongly influence future energy and emission outcomes. Global integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide valuable insights into the medium and long terms effects of socio-economic development, technological change and climate policy. In this paper we present a unique and transparent approach for improving the behavioural representation of these models by incorporating social influence effects to more accurately represent consumer choice. This work draws together strong conceptual thinking and robust empirical evidence to introduce heterogeneous and interconnected consumers who vary in their aversion to new technologies. Focussing on vehicle choice, we conduct novel empirical research to parameterise consumer risk aversion and how this is shaped by social and cultural influences. We find robust evidence for social influence effects, and variation between countries as a function of cultural differences. We then formulate an approach to modelling social influence which is implementable in both simulation and optimisation-type models. We use two global integrated assessment models (IMAGE and MESSAGE) to analyse four scenarios that introduce social influence and cultural differences between regions. These scenarios allow us to explore the interactions between consumer preferences and social influence. We find that incorporating social influence effects into global models accelerates the early deployment of electric vehicles and stimulates more widespread deployment across adopter groups. Incorporating cultural variation leads to significant differences in deployment between culturally divergent regions such as the USA and China. Our analysis significantly extends the ability of global integrated assessment models to provide policy-relevant analysis grounded in real-world processes.

Keywords: behavioural realism, electric vehicles, social influence, vehicle choice

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Authors: Akunna Agunwah, Kevin Gallimore, Kathryn Kinnmond

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Entrepreneurship and project management are widely associated and seen as a vehicle for economic growth, but are studied separately. A few authors have considered the interconnectivity existing between these two fields, but relatively little empirical data currently exist in the literature. The purpose of the present empirical study is to explore whether successful entrepreneurs utilise project management approaches in enhancing enterprise growth by understanding the working practices and experiences of the entrepreneurs’ using the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) as a lens. In order to understand those experiences, ten successful entrepreneurs in various business sectors in the North West of England were interviewed through a face-to-face semi-structured interview method. The collected audio tape-recorded data was transcribed and analysed using the deductive thematic technique (qualitative approach). The themes were viewed through the lens of Theory of Planned Behaviour to identify the three intentional antecedents (attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control) and to understand how they relate to the project management approaches (Planning, execution, and monitoring). The findings are twofold, the first evidence of the three intentional antecedents, which make up Theory of Planned Behaviour was present. Secondly, the analysis of project management approaches themes (planning, execution, and monitoring) using the lens of the theory of planned behaviour shows evidence of the three intentional antecedents. There were more than one intentional antecedents found in a particular project management theme, which indicates that the entrepreneur does utilise these approaches without categorising them into definite themes. However, the entrepreneur utilised these intentional antecedents as processes to enhanced business growth. In conclusion, the work presented here showed a way of understanding the interconnectivity between entrepreneurship and project management towards enhancing enterprise growth by examining the working practices and experiences of the successful entrepreneurs in the North-West England.

Keywords: business growth, entrepreneurship, project management approaches, theory of planned behaviour

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Authors: Babek Erdebilli

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The aim of this study is to develop and describe a new methodology for the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem using IFE (Elimination Et Choix Traduisant La Realite (ELECTRE) model. The proposed models enable Decision-Makers (DMs) on the assessment and use Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers (IFN). A numerical example is provided to demonstrate and clarify the proposed analysis procedure. Also, an empirical experiment is conducted to validation the effectiveness.

Keywords: multi-criteria decision-making, IFE, DM’s, fuzzy electre model

Procedia PDF Downloads 630

Authors: Ncedo Cameron Xhala

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Several public sector institutions lack policy direction on how to successfully implement their large infrastructure investment projects. It is significant to improve strategic policy direction in public sector institutions in order to improve planning, management and implementation of large infrastructure investment projects. It is significant to improve an understanding of internal and external pressures that exerts pressure on large infrastructure projects. The significance is to fulfill the public sector’s mandate, align the sectors’ scarce resources, stakeholders and to improve project management processes. The study used a case study approach which was underpinned by a constructionist approach. The study used a theoretical sampling technique when selecting study participants, and was followed by a snowball sampling technique that was used to select an identified case study project purposefully. The study was qualitative in nature, collected and analyzed qualitative empirical data from the purposefully selected five subject matter experts and has analyzed the case study documents. The study used a semi-structured interview approach, analysed case study documents in a qualitative approach. The interviews were on a face-to-face basis and were guided by an interview guide with focused questions. The study used a three coding process step comprising of one to three steps when analysing the qualitative empirical data. Findings reveal that an improvement of strategic policy direction in public sector institutions improves the integration in planning, management and on implementation on large infrastructure investment projects. Findings show the importance of understanding the external and internal pressures when implementing public sector’s large infrastructure investment projects. The study concludes that strategic policy direction in public sector institutions results in improvement of planning, financing, delivery, monitoring and evaluation and successful implementation of the public sector’s large infrastructure investment projects.

Keywords: implementation, infrastructure, investment, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Pi Hsia Liang

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The rise of Facebook, Twitter, and other social networks significantly changes in interconnections between people, enhancing the process of information dissemination and amplify the influence of that information. Therefore, to develop informational efficiency or signaling equilibrium type of information environment among social networks, without adverse selection effects, becomes an important issue. Thus, someone may post a piece of intentional information in relation to personal interest for trying to create marginal influence. Therefore, economists are seeking to establish theories of informational efficiency under social network environment in order to resolve adverse selection issues. Reputation could be one of the important factors in the process of creating informational efficiency. Additionally, investors how to process green information, or information of corporate social responsibility is a very important study. This study essentially employs experimental study for examining how investors use stock relevant green information in Facebook and various Taiwan local networks. Facebook, and blogs of Money DJ, Technews and cnYES, respectively, are the primary sites for this examination that also allow to differentiate effects between Facebook and other local social networks. Questionnaire is developed for such an experimental testing. Note that questionnaire allows this study to group, for example, decision frequency and length of time duration focusing on social networks that are used for discriminating investor type and competence of informed investor. This study selects 500 investors that can be separated into two respective 250 samples as the control group and 250 samples in such an experimental. The quantity of sample investor sufficiently results in statistic significance of this experimental study. The empirical results of this study can be used for explaining how financial information in relation to corporate social responsibility would be disseminated in social websites. Therefore, we can lead to better interpretation of price/earnings relationship type of study and empirical studies of green information usefulness or informational efficiency Note that the above mentioned empirical studies did not exist any social network and annual report of corporate social responsibility. This study expects to find the results that both network degree and network cluster significantly affected green information dissemination frequency. In other words, investors with more connections and with high clustered connections might exert a greater influence on their green information dissemination process. The preferred users of financial social networks could make better stock decision that could amplify effects of green information. In addition, Facebook would be more influential than other local Taiwan financial social networks, although Facebook is not a specialized financial social network. In other words, the popularity and reputation effects of Facebook significantly contribute to usefulness of green information and influence of green information. Third, it has a better chance to find rumor or cheating information in local Taiwan financial social networks than Facebook. In other words, Facebook possesses reputation effect, or a better informational efficiency. Or, even though Taiwan local financial social networks have marginal informational effects on stock price, because of shortage of informational efficiency or monitoring system, information could be a tool for those whom owning superior information.

Keywords: network effect on financial services, informational efficiency theory, social networks, social websites

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Authors: Rafael Muñoz, Juan Melchor, Alicia Valera, Laura Peralta, Guillermo Rus

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A torsional piezoelectric ultrasonic transducer design is proposed to measure shear moduli in soft tissue with direct access availability, using shear wave elastography technique. The measurement of shear moduli of tissues is a challenging problem, mainly derived from a) the difficulty of isolating a pure shear wave, given the interference of multiple waves of different types (P, S, even guided) emitted by the transducers and reflected in geometric boundaries, and b) the highly attenuating nature of soft tissular materials. An immediate application, overcoming these drawbacks, is the measurement of changes in cervix stiffness to estimate the gestational age at delivery. The design has been optimized using a finite element model (FEM) and a semi-analytical estimator of the probability of detection (POD) to determine a suitable geometry, materials and generated waves. The technique is based on the time of flight measurement between emitter and receiver, to infer shear wave velocity. Current research is centered in prototype testing and validation. The geometric optimization of the transducer was able to annihilate the compressional wave emission, generating a quite pure shear torsional wave. Currently, mechanical and electromagnetic coupling between emitter and receiver signals are being the research focus. Conclusions: the design overcomes the main described problems. The almost pure shear torsional wave along with the short time of flight avoids the possibility of multiple wave interference. This short propagation distance reduce the effect of attenuation, and allow the emission of very low energies assuring a good biological security for human use.

Keywords: cervix ripening, preterm birth, shear modulus, shear wave elastography, soft tissue, torsional wave

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Authors: Timothy Kephart

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Many law enforcement officials believe that gangs communicate messages to both the community and to rival gangs through graffiti. Some social scientists have documented this as well, however no recent research has examined gang graffiti for its underlying meaning. Empirical research on gang graffiti and gang communication through graffiti is limited. This research can be described as an exploratory effort to better understand how, and perhaps why, gangs employ this medium for communication. Furthermore this research showcases how law enforcement agencies can utilize this hidden form of communication to better direct resources and impact gang violence.

Keywords: gangs, graffiti, juvenile justice, policing

Procedia PDF Downloads 424

Authors: Usoro Anthony E., Udoh Emediong

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Diagonal Vector Autoregressive Models are special classes of the general vector autoregressive models identified under certain conditions, where parameters are restricted to the diagonal elements in the coefficient matrices. Variance, autocovariance, and autocorrelation properties of the upper and lower diagonal VAR models are derived. The new set of VAR models is verified with empirical data and is found to perform favourably with the general VAR models. The advantage of the diagonal models over the existing models is that the new models are parsimonious, given the reduction in the interactive coefficients of the general VAR models.

Keywords: VAR models, diagonal VAR models, variance, autocovariance, autocorrelations

Procedia PDF Downloads 101