Search results for: conditional proportional reversed hazard rate model

Authors: Sun-Young Jang, Sung-Ah Kim, Dongyoun Shin

Abstract:

The Intelligent transportation system is essential to build smarter cities. Machine learning based transportation prediction could be highly promising approach by delivering invisible aspect visible. In this context, this research aims to make a prototype model that predicts transportation network by using big data and machine learning technology. In detail, among urban transportation systems this research chooses bus system.  The research problem that existing headway model cannot response dynamic transportation conditions. Thus, bus delay problem is often occurred. To overcome this problem, a prediction model is presented to fine patterns of bus delay by using a machine learning implementing the following data sets; traffics, weathers, and bus statues. This research presents a flexible headway model to predict bus delay and analyze the result. The prototyping model is composed by real-time data of buses. The data are gathered through public data portals and real time Application Program Interface (API) by the government. These data are fundamental resources to organize interval pattern models of bus operations as traffic environment factors (road speeds, station conditions, weathers, and bus information of operating in real-time). The prototyping model is designed by the machine learning tool (RapidMiner Studio) and conducted tests for bus delays prediction. This research presents experiments to increase prediction accuracy for bus headway by analyzing the urban big data. The big data analysis is important to predict the future and to find correlations by processing huge amount of data. Therefore, based on the analysis method, this research represents an effective use of the machine learning and urban big data to understand urban dynamics.

Keywords: big data, machine learning, smart city, social cost, transportation network

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Kaoutar Jraida

Abstract:

Growing evidence demonstrates that thermal conditions in office buildings broadly influence productivity of workers. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and analyze the indoor thermal comfort in an office space based on the calculation of predicted mean vote and predicted percentage of dissatisfied (PMV-PPD) model and field survey.

Keywords: Office, Predicted Mean Vote (PMV), Percentage People Dissatisfied (PPD), Thermal comfort

Procedia PDF Downloads 199

Authors: Debasis Sengupta, Sudipta Das

Abstract:

The class of life distributions with decreasing mean residual life (DMRL) is well known in the field of reliability modeling. It contains the IFR class of distributions and is contained in the NBUE class of distributions. While upper and lower bounds of the reliability distribution function of aging classes such as IFR, IFRA, NBU, NBUE, and HNBUE have discussed in the literature for a long time, there is no analogous result available for the DMRL class. We obtain the upper and lower bounds for the reliability function of the DMRL class in terms of first order finite moment. The lower bound is obtained by showing that for any fixed time, the minimization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean is equivalent to its minimization over a smaller class of distribution with a special form. Optimization over this restricted set can be made algebraically. Likewise, the maximization of the reliability function over the class of all DMRL distributions with a fixed mean turns out to be a parametric optimization problem over the class of DMRL distributions of a special form. The constructive proofs also establish that both the upper and lower bounds are sharp. Further, the DMRL upper bound coincides with the HNBUE upper bound and the lower bound coincides with the IFR lower bound. We also prove that a pair of sharp upper and lower bounds for the reliability function when the distribution is increasing mean residual life (IMRL) with a fixed mean. This result is proved in a similar way. These inequalities fill a long-standing void in the literature of the life distribution modeling.

Keywords: DMRL, IMRL, reliability bounds, hazard functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 399

Authors: Wei Yao, Constantinos Alexiou

Abstract:

In the existing literature, many studies have focused on the implementation and effectiveness of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, but only a few have evaluated QE’s effect on commodity prices. In this context, by following Frankel’s (1986) commodity price overshooting model, we study the dynamic covariation between the expected real interest rates and six agricultural commodities’ real returns over the period from 2000:1 to 2018 for the US economy. We use wavelet analysis to investigate the causal relationship and co-movement of time series data by calculating the coefficient of determination in different frequencies. We find that a) US unconventional monetary policy may cause more positive and significant covariation between the expected real interest rates and agricultural commodities’ real returns over the short horizons; b) a lead-lag relationship that runs from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real short-term interest rates over the long horizons; and c) a lead-lag relationship from agricultural commodities’ real returns to the expected real long-term interest rates over short horizons. In the realm of monetary policy, we argue that QE may shift the negative relationship between most commodities’ real returns and the expected real interest rates to a positive one over a short horizon.

Keywords: QE, commodity price, interest rate, wavelet coherence

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: Kgolagano Mpejane

Abstract:

The study applies a New Institutional Economics (NIE) analytical framework to trade in developing economies by assessing the impacts of institutional quality and institutional quality distance on agricultural trade using a panel data of 15 Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries from the years 1991-2010. The issue of institutions on agricultural trade has not been accorded the necessary attention in the literature, particularly in developing economies. Therefore, the paper empirically tests the gravity model of international trade by measuring the impact of political, economic and legal institutions on intra SADC agricultural trade. The gravity model is noted for its exploratory power and strong theoretical foundation. However, the model has statistical shortcomings in dealing with zero trade values and heteroscedasticity residuals leading to biased results. Therefore, this study employs a two stage Heckman selection model with a Probit equation to estimate the influence of institutions on agricultural trade. The selection stages include the inverse Mills ratio to account for the variable bias of the gravity model. The Heckman model accounts for zero trade values and is robust in the presence of heteroscedasticity. The empirical results of the study support the NIE theory premise that institutions matter in trade. The results demonstrate that institutions determine bilateral agricultural trade on different margins with political institutions having positive and significant influence on bilateral agricultural trade flows within the SADC region. Legal and economic institutions have significant and negative effects on SADC trade. Furthermore, the results of this study confirm that institutional quality distance influences agricultural trade. Legal and political institutional distance have a positive and significant influence on bilateral agricultural trade while the influence of economic, institutional quality is negative and insignificant. The results imply that nontrade barriers, in the form of institutional quality and institutional quality distance, are significant factors limiting intra SADC agricultural trade. Therefore, gains from intra SADC agricultural trade can be attained through the improvement of institutions within the region.

Keywords: agricultural trade, institutions, gravity model, SADC

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Yee Hooi Min, Mohdnasir Abdul Hadi

Abstract:

Tensioned membrane structure in the form of Enneper minimal surface can be considered as a sustainable development for the green environment and technology, it also can be used to support the effectiveness used of energy and the structure. Soap film in the form of Enneper minimal surface model has been studied. The combination of shape and internal forces for the purpose of stiffness and strength is an important feature of membrane surface. For this purpose, form-finding using soap film model has been carried out for Enneper minimal surface models with variables u=v=0.6 and u=v=1.0. Enneper soap film models with variables u=v=0.6 and u=v=1.0 provides an alternative choice for structural engineers to consider the tensioned membrane structure in the form of Enneper minimal surface applied in the building industry. It is expected to become an alternative building material to be considered by the designer.

Keywords: Enneper, minimal surface, soap film, tensioned membrane structure

Procedia PDF Downloads 559

Authors: Jamaiah H. Yahaya, Aziz Deraman, Abdul Razak Hamdan, Yusmadi Yah Jusoh

Abstract:

One of the most essential issues in software products is to maintain it relevancy to the dynamics of the user’s requirements and expectation. Many studies have been carried out in quality aspect of software products to overcome these problems. Previous software quality assessment models and metrics have been introduced with strengths and limitations. In order to enhance the assurance and buoyancy of the software products, certification models have been introduced and developed. From our previous experiences in certification exercises and case studies collaborating with several agencies in Malaysia, the requirements for user based software certification approach is identified and demanded. The emergence of social network applications, the new development approach such as agile method and other varieties of software in the market have led to the domination of users over the software. As software become more accessible to the public through internet applications, users are becoming more critical in the quality of the services provided by the software. There are several categories of users in web-based systems with different interests and perspectives. The classifications and metrics are identified through brain storming approach with includes researchers, users and experts in this area. The new paradigm in software quality assessment is the main focus in our research. This paper discusses the classifications of users in web-based software system assessment and their associated factors and metrics for quality measurement. The quality model is derived based on IEEE structure and FCM model. The developments are beneficial and valuable to overcome the constraints and improve the application of software certification model in future.

Keywords: software certification model, user centric approach, software quality factors, metrics and measurements, web-based system

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Eun-Young Kwon, Myung-Sook Choi, Su-Jung Cho, Ji-Young Choi, So Young Kim, Youngji Han

Abstract:

Overweight and obesity have been linked to a low-grade chronic inflammatory response and an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome including insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus and certain types of cancers. Luteolin is a dietary flavonoid with anti-inflammatory, anti-oxidant, anti-cancer and anti-diabetic properties. However, little is known about the detailed mechanism associated with the effect of luteolin on inflammation-related obesity and its complications. The aim of the present study was to reveal the anti-diabetic effect of luteolin in diet-induced obesity mice using “transcriptomics” tool. Thirty-nine male C57BL/6J mice (4-week-old) were randomly divided into 3 groups and were fed normal diet, high-fat diet (HFD, 20% fat) and HFD+0.005% (w/w) luteolin for 16 weeks. Luteolin improved insulin resistance, as measured by HOMA-IR and glucose tolerance, along with preservation action of pancreatic β-cells, compared to the HFD group. Luteoiln was significantly decreased the levels of leptin and ghrelin that play a pivotal role in energy balance, and the macrophage low-grade inflammation marker sCD163 (soluble Cd antigen 163) in plasma. Activities of hepatic anti-oxidant enzymes (catalase and glutathione peroxidase) were increased, while the levels of plasma transaminase (GOT and GPT) and oxidative damage markers (hepatic mitochondria H2O2 and TBARS) were markedly decreased by luteolin supplementation. In addition, luteolin increased oxidative capacity and fatty acid utilization by presenting decrease in enzyme activities of citrate synthase, cytochrome C oxidase and β-hydroxyacyl CoA dehydrogenase and UCP3 gene expression compared to high-fat diet. Moreover, our microarray results of muscle also revealed down-regulated gene expressions associated with TCA cycle by HFD were reversed to normal level by luteolin treatment. Taken together, our results indicate that luteolin is one of bioactive components for improving insulin resistance by increasing oxidative capacity, modulating anti-oxidant metabolism and suppressing inflammatory signaling cascades in diet-induced obese mice. These results provide possible therapeutic targets for prevention and treatment of diet-induced obesity and its complications.

Keywords: anti-oxidant metabolism, diabetes, luteolin, oxidative capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: A. M. Nour, M. A. Zaki, E. A. Omer, Nourhan Mohamed

Abstract:

Performances of mixed-sex Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) fingerlings (11.33 ± 1.78 g /fish) reared under biofloc system developed by molasses and sucrose as carbon sources in indoor fiberglass tanks were evaluated. Six indoor fiberglass tanks (1m 3 each filled with 1000 l of underground fresh water), each was stocked with 2kg fish were used for 14 weeks experimental period. Three experimental groups were designed (each group 2 tanks) as following: 1-control: 20% daily without biofloc, 2-zero water exchange rate with biofloc (molasses as C source) and 3-zero water exchange rate with biofloc (sucrose as C source). Fish in all aquariums were fed on floating feed pellets (30% crude protein, 3 mm in diameter) at a rate of 3% of the actual live fish body, 3 times daily and 6 days a week. Carbohydrate supplementations were applied daily to each tank two hrs, after feeding to maintain the carbon: nitrogen ratio (C: N) ratio 20:1. Fish were reared under continuous aeration by pumping air into the water in the tank bottom using two sandy diffusers and constant temperature between 27.0-28.0 ºC by using electrical heaters for 10 weeks. Criteria's for assessment of water quality parameters, biofloc production and fish growth performances were collected and evaluated. The results showed that total ammonia nitrogen in control group was higher than biofloc groups. The biofloc volumes were 19.13 mg/l and 13.96 mg/l for sucrose and molasses, respectively. Biofloc protein (%), ether extract (%) and gross energy (kcal/100g DM), they were higher in biofloc molasses group than biofloc sucrose group. Tilapia growth performances were significantly higher (P < 0.05) with molasses group than in sucrose and control groups, respectively. The highest feed and nutrient utilization values for protein efficiency ratio (PER), protein productive (PPV%) and energy utilization (EU, %) were higher in molasses group followed by sucrose group and control group respectively.

Keywords: biofloc, Nile tilapia, cabohydrates, performances

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Jalal Eddine Benmansour, Khouane Boulanoir, Nacera Bekhadda, Elhassen Benfriha

Abstract:

This paper introduces a novel composite control approach that addresses the challenge of stabilizing the three-axis attitude of a flexible satellite in the presence of vibrations caused by flexible appendages. The key contribution of this research lies in the development of a disturbance observer, which effectively observes and estimates the unwanted torques induced by the vibrations. By utilizing the estimated disturbance, the proposed approach enables efficient compensation for the detrimental effects of vibrations on the satellite system. To govern the attitude angles of the spacecraft, a proportional derivative controller (PD) is specifically designed and proposed. The PD controller ensures precise control over all attitude angles, facilitating stable and accurate spacecraft maneuvering. In order to demonstrate the global stability of the system, the Lyapunov method, a well-established technique in control theory, is employed. Through rigorous analysis, the Lyapunov method verifies the convergence of system dynamics, providing strong evidence of system stability. To evaluate the performance and efficacy of the proposed control algorithm, extensive simulations are conducted. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the combined approach, showcasing significant improvements in the stabilization and control of the satellite's attitude, even in the presence of disruptive vibrations from flexible appendages. This novel composite control approach presented in this paper contributes to the advancement of satellite attitude control techniques, offering a promising solution for achieving enhanced stability and precision in challenging operational environments.

Keywords: attitude control, flexible satellite, vibration control, disturbance observer

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Lamia Bourdache, Amar Djema

Abstract:

The effect of non-Newtonian property (power law index n) on traveling waves of thin layer of power law fluid flowing over an inclined plane is investigated. For this, a simplified second-order two-equation model (SM) is used. The complete model is second-order four-equation (CM). It is derived by combining the weighted residual integral method and the lubrication theory. This is due to the fact that at the beginning of the instability waves, a very small number of waves is observed. Using a suitable set of test functions, second order terms are eliminated from the calculus so that the model is still accurate to the second order approximation. Linear, spatial, and temporal stabilities are studied. For travelling waves, a particular type of wave form that is steady in a moving frame, i.e., that travels at a constant celerity without changing its shape is studied. This type of solutions which are characterized by their celerity exists under suitable conditions, when the widening due to dispersion is balanced exactly by the narrowing effect due to the nonlinearity. Changing the parameter of celerity in some range allows exploring the entire spectrum of asymptotic behavior of these traveling waves. The (SM) model is converted into a three dimensional dynamical system. The result is that the model exhibits bifurcation scenarios such as heteroclinic, homoclinic, Hopf, and period-doubling bifurcations for different values of the power law index n. The influence of the non-Newtonian parameter on the nonlinear development of these travelling waves is discussed. It is found at the end that the qualitative characters of bifurcation scenarios are insensitive to the variation of the power law index.

Keywords: inclined plane, nonlinear stability, non-Newtonian, thin film

Procedia PDF Downloads 288

Authors: M. Y. Ismail, M. Inam, A. F. M. Zain, N. Misran

Abstract:

Progressive phase distribution is an important consideration in reflect array antenna design which is required to form a planar wave in front of the reflect array aperture. This paper presents a detailed mathematical model in order to determine the required reflection phase values from individual element of a reflect array designed in Ku-band frequency range. The proposed technique of obtaining reflection phase can be applied for any geometrical design of elements and is independent of number of array elements. Moreover the model also deals with the solution of reflect array antenna design with both centre and off-set feed configurations. The theoretical modeling has also been implemented for reflect arrays constructed on 0.508 mm thickness of different dielectric substrates. The results show an increase in the slope of the phase curve from 4.61°/mm to 22.35°/mm by varying the material properties.

Keywords: mathematical modeling, progressive phase distribution, reflect array antenna, reflection phase

Procedia PDF Downloads 385

Authors: Michiko Miyamoto

Abstract:

This paper empirically investigates whether information technology (IT) strategies, business strategies, and divisions are aligned to meet overall business goals for Korean Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), based on structure based Strategic Alignment Model, and make comparison with those of Japanese SMEs. Using 2,869 valid responses of Korean Human Capital Corporate Panel survey, a result of this study suggests that Korean human resources (HR) departments have a major influence over IT strategy, which is the same as Japanese SMEs, even though their management styles are quite different. As for IT strategy, it is not related to other departments at all for Korean SMEs. The Korean management seems to possess a great power over each division, such as Sales/Service, Research and Development/Technical Experts, HR, and Production.

Keywords: IT-business alignment, structured based strategic alignment model, structural equation model, human resources department

Procedia PDF Downloads 276

Authors: Amir Shafiee Kisomi, Mehrdad Mofidi

Abstract:

Nowadays, fuel cells as a promising alternative for power source have been widely studied owing to their security, high energy density, low operation temperatures, renewable capability and low environmental pollutant emission. The nanoparticles of core-shell type could be widely described in a combination of a shell (outer layer material) and a core (inner material), and their characteristics are greatly conditional on dimensions and composition of the core and shell. In addition, the change in the constituting materials or the ratio of core to the shell can create their special noble characteristics. In this study, a fast technique for the fabrication of a Pd-Co/G/GCE modified electrode is offered. Thermal decomposition reaction of cobalt (II) formate salt over the surface of graphene/glassy carbon electrode (G/GCE) is utilized for the synthesis of Co nanoparticles. The nanoparticles of Pd-Co decorated on the graphene are created based on the following method: (1) Thermal decomposition reaction of cobalt (II) formate salt and (2) the galvanic replacement process Co by Pd2+. The physical and electrochemical performances of the as-prepared Pd-Co/G electrocatalyst are studied by Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM), Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS), Cyclic Voltammetry (CV), and Chronoamperometry (CHA). Galvanic replacement method is utilized as a facile and spontaneous approach for growth of Pd nanostructures. The Pd-Co/G is used as an anode catalyst for ethanol oxidation in alkaline media. The Pd-Co/G not only delivered much higher current density (262.3 mAcm-2) compared to the Pd/C (32.1 mAcm-2) catalyst, but also demonstrated a negative shift of the onset oxidation potential (-0.480 vs -0.460 mV) in the forward sweep. Moreover, the novel Pd-Co/G electrocatalyst represents large electrochemically active surface area (ECSA), lower apparent activation energy (Ea), higher levels of durability and poisoning tolerance compared to the Pd/C catalyst. The paper demonstrates that the catalytic activity and stability of Pd-Co/G electrocatalyst are higher than those of the Pd/C electrocatalyst toward ethanol oxidation in alkaline media.

Keywords: thermal decomposition, nanostructures, galvanic replacement, electrocatalyst, ethanol oxidation, alkaline media

Procedia PDF Downloads 156

Authors: Khalid Hussein, Waleed Abdalati, Pakorn Petchprayoon, Khaula Alkaabi

Abstract:

In this study, we integrated ASTER thermal data with an area-based spatial insolation model to identify and delineate geothermally active areas in Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Two pairs of L1B ASTER day- and nighttime scenes were used to calculate land surface temperature. We employed the Emissivity Normalization Algorithm which separates temperature from emissivity to calculate surface temperature. We calculated the incoming solar radiation for the area covered by each of the four ASTER scenes using an insolation model and used this information to compute temperature due to solar radiation. We then identified the statistical thermal anomalies using land surface temperature and the residuals calculated from modeled temperatures and ASTER-derived surface temperatures. Areas that had temperatures or temperature residuals greater than 2σ and between 1σ and 2σ were considered ASTER-modeled thermal anomalies. The areas identified as thermal anomalies were in strong agreement with the thermal areas obtained from the YNP GIS database. Also the YNP hot springs and geysers were located within areas identified as anomalous thermal areas. The consistency between our results and known geothermally active areas indicate that thermal remote sensing data, integrated with a spatial-based insolation model, provides an effective means for identifying and locating areas of geothermal activities over large areas and rough terrain.

Keywords: thermal remote sensing, insolation model, land surface temperature, geothermal anomalies

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Warda Nasir, M. N. S. Qureshi

Abstract:

Whistler waves are right handed circularly polarized waves and are frequently observed in space plasmas. The Low frequency branch of the Whistler waves having frequencies nearly around 100 Hz, known as Lion roars, are frequently observed in magnetosheath. Another feature of the magnetosheath is the observations of flat top electron distributions with single as well as two electron populations. In the past, lion roars were studied by employing kinetic model using classical bi-Maxwellian distribution function, however, could not be justified both on quantitatively as well as qualitatively grounds. We studied Whistler waves by employing kinetic model using non-Maxwellian distribution function such as the generalized (r,q) distribution function which is the generalized form of kappa and Maxwellian distribution functions by employing kinetic theory with single or two electron populations. We compare our results with the Cluster observations and found good quantitative and qualitative agreement between them. At times when lion roars are observed (not observed) in the data and bi-Maxwellian could not provide the sufficient growth (damping) rates, we showed that when generalized (r,q) distribution function is employed, the resulted growth (damping) rates exactly match the observations.

Keywords: kinetic model, whistler waves, non-maxwellian distribution function, space plasmas

Procedia PDF Downloads 318

Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon

Abstract:

With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: Davide Fuscà, Kanan Rahimli, Roberto Leuzzi

Abstract:

Preventing abuse and illegal activities in a given area of the sea is a very difficult and expensive task. Artificial intelligence offers the possibility to implement new methods to identify the vessel class type from the kinematic features of the vessel itself. The task strictly depends on the quality of the data. This paper explores the application of a deep, long short-term memory model by using AIS flow only with a relatively low quality. The proposed model reaches high accuracy on detecting nine vessel classes representing the most common vessel types in the Ionian-Adriatic Sea. The model has been applied during the Adriatic-Ionian trial period of the international EU ANDROMEDA H2020 project to identify vessels performing behaviors far from the expected one depending on the declared type.

Keywords: maritime surveillance, artificial intelligence, behavior analysis, LSTM

Procedia PDF Downloads 236

Authors: D. P. Rollinson, B. J. Dilley, P. G. Ryan

Abstract:

The white-chinned petrel (Procellaria aequinoctialis) is the seabird species most commonly killed by Southern Hemisphere longline fisheries. Despite the importance of diving ability for mitigating longline bycatch, little is known of this species’ diving behaviour. We obtained data from temperature–depth recorders from nine white-chinned petrels breeding on Marion Island, southwestern Indian Ocean, during the late incubation and chickrearing period. Maximum dive depth (16 m) was slightly deeper than the previous estimate (13 m), but varied considerably among individuals (range 2–16 m). Males dived deeper than females, and birds feeding chicks dived deeper than incubating birds, but dive rate did not differ between the sexes. Time of day had no significant effect on dive depth or rate. Our findings will help to improve the design and performance of mitigation measures aimed at reducing seabird bycatch in longline fisheries, such as the calculation of minimum line sink rates and optimum aerial coverage of bird-scaring lines.

Keywords: dive depth, dive duration, temperature–depth recorders, seabirds, bird-scaring lines

Procedia PDF Downloads 575

Authors: Kim Kennedy, Daren Gibson, Stephanie Flukes, Chandra Diwakarla, Lisa Spalding, Leanne Pilkington, Andrew Redfern

Abstract:

Introduction: It is well known that patients with Head and Neck Cancer (HNC) are at increased risk of subsequent head and neck cancers due to various aetiologies. Aim: We sought to determine the factors contributing to an increased risk of subsequent HNC primaries, and also to evaluate whether Aboriginal patients are at increased risk. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort analysis of 320 HNC patients from a single centre in Western Australia, identifying 80 Aboriginal patients and 240 non-Aboriginal patients matched on a 1:3 ratio by site, histology, rurality, and age. We collected patient data including smoking and alcohol consumption, tumour and treatment data, and data on subsequent HNC primaries. Results: A subsequent HNC primary was seen in 37 patients (11.6%) overall. There was no significant difference in the rate of second primary HNCs between Aboriginal patients (12.5%) and nonAboriginal patients (11.2%) (p=0.408). Subsequent HNCs, were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol consumption however, with 95% of patients with a second primary being ever-smokers, and 54% of patients with a second primary having a history of excessive alcohol consumption. In the 37 patients with multiple HNC primaries, there were a total of 57 HNCs, with 29 patients having two primaries, six patients having 3 HNC primaries, one patient with four, and one with six. 54 out of the 57 cancers were in ever smokers (94.7%). There were only two multiple HNC primaries in a never smoker, non-drinker, and these cases were of unknown etiology with HPV/p16 status unknown in both cases. In the whole study population, there were 32 HPV-positive HNCs, and 67 p16-positive HNCs, with only two 2 nd HNCs in a p16-positive case, giving a rate of 3% in the p16+ population, which is actually much lower than the rate of second primaries seen in the overall population (11.6%), and was highest in the p16-negative population (15.7%). This suggests that p16-positivity is not a strong risk factor for subsequent primaries, and in fact p16-negativity appeared to be associated with increased risk, however this data is limited by the large number of patients without documented p16 status (45.3% overall, 12% for oropharyngeal, and 59.6% for oral cavity primaries had unknown p16 status). Summary: Subsequent HNC primaries were strongly associated with smoking and alcohol excess. Second and later HNC primaries did not appear to occur at increased rates in Aboriginal patients compared with non-Aboriginal patients, and p16-positivity did not predict increased risk, however p16-negativity was associated with an increased risk of subsequent HNCs.

Keywords: head and neck cancer, multiple primaries, aboriginal, p16 status, smoking, alcohol

Procedia PDF Downloads 75

Authors: Neslihan Sahin Celik, Ali Eraslan

Abstract:

Mathematical model and modeling are one of the topics that have been intensively discussed in recent years. In line with the results of the PISA studies, researchers in many countries have begun to question how much students in school-education system are prepared to solve the real-world problems they encounter in their future professional lives. As a result, many mathematics educators have begun to emphasize the importance of new skills and understanding such as constructing, Hypothesizing, Describing, manipulating, predicting, working together for complex and multifaceted problems for success in beyond the school. When students increasingly face this kind of situations in their daily life, it is important to make sure that students have enough experience to work together and interpret mathematical situations that enable them to think in different ways and share their ideas with their peers. Thus, model eliciting activities are one of main tools that help students to gain experiences and the new skills required. This research study was carried on the town center of a big city located in the Black Sea region in Turkey. The participants were eighth-grade students in a middle school. After a six-week preliminary study, three students in an eighth-grade classroom were selected using criterion sampling technique and placed in a focus group. The focus group of three students was videotaped as they worked on a model eliciting activity, the Summer Job Problem. The conversation of the group was transcribed, examined with students’ written work and then qualitatively analyzed through the lens of Blum’s (1996) modeling processing cycle. The study results showed that eighth grade students can successfully work with the model eliciting, develop a model based on the two parameters and review the whole process. On the other hand, they had difficulties to relate parameters to each other and take all parameters into account to establish the model.

Keywords: middle school, modeling, mathematical modeling, summer job problem

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, REVIVE team

Abstract:

The environment of the mosquitoes complex Culex pipiens sl. in Portugal mainland is evaluated based in its abundance, using a data set georeferenced, collected during seven years (2006-2012) from May to October. The suitability of the different regions can be delineated using the relative abundance areas; the suitablility index is directly proportional to disease transmission risk and allows focusing mitigation measures in order to avoid outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The interest in the Culex pipiens complex is justified by its medical importance: the females bite all warm-blooded vertebrates and are involved in the circulation of several arbovirus of concern to human health, like West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses. The abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were documented systematically all over the territory by the local health services, in a long duration program running since 2006. The environmental factors used to characterize the vector habitat are land use/land cover, distance to cartographed water bodies, altitude and latitude. Focus will be on the mosquito females, which gonotrophic cycle mate-bloodmeal-oviposition is responsible for the virus transmission; its abundance is the key for the planning of non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures that may eradicate the transmission risk and simultaneously avoid chemical ambient degradation. Meteorological parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures) and daily total rainfall were gathered from the weather stations network for the same dates and crossed with the standardized females’ abundance in a geographic information system (GIS). Mean capture and percentage of above average captures related to each variable are used as criteria to compute a threshold for each meteorological parameter; the difference of the mean capture above/below the threshold was statistically assessed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the meaningful thresholds for each parameter. The intersection of the maps of all the parameters obtained for each month show the evolution of the suitable meteorological conditions through the mosquito season, considered as May to October, although the first and last month are less relevant. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters – the land use/land cover classes most relevant in each month, the altitudes preferred and the most frequent distance to water bodies, a factor closely related with the mosquito biology. The maps produced with these results were crossed with the meteorological maps previously segmented, in order to get an index of suitability for the complex Culex pipiens evaluated all over the country, and its evolution from the beginning to the end of the mosquitoes season.

Keywords: suitability index, Culex pipiens, habitat evolution, GIS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 580

Authors: Hyuk Sung Yoon, In-Lee Choi, Mohammad Zahirul Islam, Jun Pill Baek, Ho-Min Kang

Abstract:

The strawberry ‘Maehyang’ cultivated in South Korea has been increased to export to Southeast Asia. The degradation of quality often occurs in strawberries during short export period. Botrytis cinerea has been known to cause major damage to the export strawberries and the disease was caused during shipping and distribution. This study was conducted to find out the sterilized effect of chlorine dioxide(ClO2) gas and high concentration of CO2 gas injection for ‘Maehyang’ strawberry and it was packaged with oxygen transmission rate (OTR) films. The strawberry was harvested at 80% color changed stage and packaged with OTR film and perforated film (control). The treatments were a MAP used by with 20,000 cc·m-2·day·atm OTR film and gas injection in packages. The gas type of ClO2 and CO2 were injected into OTR film packages, and treatments were 6 mg/L ClO2, 15% CO2, and they were combined. The treated strawberries were stored at 3℃ for 30 days. Fresh weight loss rate was less than 1% in all OTR film packages but it was more than 15% in a perforated film treatment that showed severe deterioration of visual quality during storage. Carbon dioxide concentration within a package showed approximately 15% of the maximum CO2 concentration in all treatments except control until the 21st day, it was the tolerated range of maximum CO2 concentration of strawberry in recommended CA or MA conditions. But, it increased to almost 50% on the 30th day. Oxygen concentration showed a decrease down to approximately 0% in all treatments except control for 25 days. Ethylene concentration was shown to be steady until the 17th day, but it quickly increased on the 17th day and dropped down on the final storage day (30th day). All treatments did not show any significant differences in gas treatments. Firmness increased in CO2 (15%) and ClO2 (6mg/L) + CO2 (15%) treatments during storage. It might be the effect of high concentration CO2 known by reducing decay and cell wall degradation. The soluble solid decreased in all treatments during storage. These results were caused to use up the sugar by the increase of respiration during storage. The titratable acidity showed a similarity in all treatments. Incidence of fungi was 0% in CO2 (15%) and ClO2 (6mg/L)+ CO2 (15%), but was more than 20% in a perforated film treatment. Consequently, The result indicates that Chloride Dioxide(ClO2) and high concentration of CO2 inhibited fungi growth. Due to the fact that fresh weight loss rate and incidence of fungi were lower, the ClO2(6mg/L)+ CO2(15%) prove to be most efficient in sterilization. These results suggest that Chloride Dioxide (ClO2) and high concentration of CO2 gas injection treatments were an effective decontamination technique for improving the safety of strawberries.

Keywords: chloride dioxide, high concentration of CO2, modified atmosphere condition, oxygen transmission rate films

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Pradeep Lamichhane, Nima Pourali, E. V. Rebrov, Volker Hessel

Abstract:

Nitrogen fixation is critical for plants for the biosynthesis of protein and nucleic acid. Most of our atmosphere is nitrogen, yet plants cannot directly absorb it from the air, and natural nitrogen fixation is insufficient to meet the demands. This experiment used a fast-modulated surface-confined atmospheric pressure plasma created by a 6 kV (peak-peak) sinusoidal power source with a repetition frequency of 68 kHz to fix nitrogen. Plasmas have been proposed for excitation of nitrogen gas, which quickly oxidised to NOX. With different N2/O2 input ratios, the rate of NOX generation was investigated. The rate of NOX production was shown to be optimal for mixtures of 60–70% O2 with N2. To boost NOX production in plasma, metal oxide catalysts based on TiO2 were coated over the dielectric layer of a reactor. These results demonstrate that nitrogen activation was more advantageous in surface-confined plasma sources because micro-discharges formed on the sharp edges of the electrodes, which is a primary function attributed to NOX synthesis and is further enhanced by metal oxide catalysts. The energy-efficient and sustainable NOX synthesis described in this study will offer a fresh perspective for ongoing research on green nitrogen fixation techniques.

Keywords: nitrogen fixation, fast-modulated, surface-confined, sustainable

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Gia Lam Le, Dennis T. Bergado, Thi Ngoc Truc Nguyen

Abstract:

This study focuses on behaviors of improved soft clay using prefabricated vertical drain (PVD) combined with vacuum and electro-osmotic preloading. Large-scale consolidations of reconstituted soft Bangkok clay were conducted for PVD improvement with vacuum (vacuum-PVD), and vacuum combined with heat (vacuum-thermo-PVD). The research revealed that vacuum-thermo-PVD gives high efficiency of the consolidation rate compared to the vacuum-PVD. In addition, the magnitude of settlement of the specimen improved by the vacuum-thermo-PVD is higher than the vacuum-PVD because the assistance of heat causes the collapse of the clay structure. Particularly, to reach 90% degree of consolidation, the thermal-vacuum-PVD reduced about 58% consolidation time compared to the vacuum-PVD. The increase in consolidation rate is resulted from the increase in horizontal coefficient of consolidation, Ch, the reduction of the smear effect expressed by the ratio of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the undisturbed zone, kh, and the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the smeared zone, ks. Furthermore, the shear strength, Su, increased about 100% when compared using the vacuum-thermal-PVD to the vacuum PVD. In addition, numerical simulations gave reasonable results compared to the laboratory data.

Keywords: PVD improvement, vacuum preloading, prefabricated vertical drain, thermal PVD

Procedia PDF Downloads 472

Authors: Tetyana Kendzerska, David T. Zhu, Michael Pugliese, Douglas Manuel, Mohsen Sadatsafavi, Marcus Povitz, Therese A. Stukel, Teresa To, Shawn D. Aaron, Sunita Mulpuru, Melanie Chin, Claire E. Kendall, Kednapa Thavorn, Rebecca Robillard, Andrea S. Gershon

Abstract:

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the management of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) remains unknown. To compare observed and expected (projected based on previous years) trends in all-cause mortality and healthcare use for ACSCs in the first year of the pandemic (March 2020 - March 2021). A population-based study using provincial health administrative data.General adult population (Ontario, Canada). Monthly all-cause mortality, and hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) and outpatient visit rates (per 100,000 people at-risk) for seven combined ACSCs (asthma, COPD, angina, congestive heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, and epilepsy) during the first year were compared with similar periods in previous years (2016-2019) by fitting monthly time series auto-regressive integrated moving-average models. Compared to previous years, all-cause mortality rates increased at the beginning of the pandemic (observed rate in March-May 2020 of 79.98 vs. projected of 71.24 [66.35-76.50]) and then returned to expected in June 2020—except among immigrants and people with mental health conditions where they remained elevated. Hospitalization and ED visit rates for ACSCs remained lower than projected throughout the first year: observed hospitalization rate of 37.29 vs. projected of 52.07 (47.84-56.68); observed ED visit rate of 92.55 vs. projected of 134.72 (124.89-145.33). ACSC outpatient visit rates decreased initially (observed rate of 4,299.57 vs. projected of 5,060.23 [4,712.64-5,433.46]) and then returned to expected in June 2020. Reductions in outpatient visits for ACSCs at the beginning of the pandemic combined with reduced hospital admissions may have been associated with temporally increased mortality—disproportionately experienced by immigrants and those with mental health conditions. The Ottawa Hospital Academic Medical Organization

Keywords: COVID-19, chronic disease, all-cause mortality, hospitalizations, emergency department visits, outpatient visits, modelling, population-based study, asthma, COPD, angina, heart failure, hypertension, diabetes, epilepsy

Procedia PDF Downloads 97

Authors: Inese Trusina, Elita Jermolajeva

Abstract:

Global challenges require a transition from the existing linear economic model to a model that will consider nature as a life support system for the developmenton the way to social well-being in the frame of the ecological economics paradigm. The article presentsbasic definitions for the development of formalized description of sustainabledevelopment monitoring. It provides examples of calculating the parameters of monitoring for the Baltic Sea region countries and their primary interpretation.

Keywords: sustainability, development, power, ecological economics, regional economic, monitoring

Procedia PDF Downloads 126

Authors: Abdelmalek Ouannou, Adil Brouri, Laila Kadi, Tarik

Abstract:

Switched reluctance motor (SRM) has a major interest in a large domain as in electric vehicle driving because of its wide range of speed operation, high performances, low cost, and robustness to run under degraded conditions. The purpose of the paper is to develop a new analytical approach for modeling SRM parameters. Then, an identification scheme is proposed to obtain the SRM parameters. Since the SRM is featured by a highly nonlinear behavior, modeling these devices is difficult. Then, it is convenient to develop an accurate model describing the SRM. Furthermore, it is always operated in the magnetically saturated mode to maximize the energy transfer. Accordingly, it is shown that the SRM can be accurately described by a generalized polynomial Hammerstein model, i.e., the parallel connection of several Hammerstein models having polynomial nonlinearity. Presently an analytical identification method is developed using a chirp excitation signal. Afterward, the parameters of the obtained model have been determined using Finite Element Method analysis. Finally, in order to show the effectiveness of the proposed method, a comparison between the true and estimate models has been performed. The obtained results show that the output responses are very close.

Keywords: switched reluctance motor, swept-sine signal, generalized Hammerstein model, nonlinear system

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Kristopher A. Pruitt, Justin M. Hill

Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to determine the pacing and nutrition strategies which minimize completion time and carbohydrate intake for athletes competing in ultramarathon races. The model formulation consists of a two-phase optimization. The first-phase mixed-integer nonlinear program (MINLP) determines the minimum completion time subject to the altitude, terrain, and distance of the race, as well as the mass and cardiovascular fitness of the athlete. The second-phase MINLP determines the minimum total carbohydrate intake required for the athlete to achieve the completion time prescribed by the first phase, subject to the flow of carbohydrates through the stomach, liver, and muscles. Consequently, the second phase model provides the optimal pacing and nutrition strategies for a particular athlete for each kilometer of a particular race. Validation of the model results over a wide range of athlete parameters against completion times for real competitive events suggests strong agreement. Additionally, the kilometer-by-kilometer pacing and nutrition strategies, the model prescribes for a particular athlete suggest unconventional approaches could result in lower completion times. Thus, the MINLP provides prescriptive guidance that athletes can leverage when developing pacing and nutrition strategies prior to competing in ultramarathon races. Given the highly-variable topographical characteristics common to many ultramarathon courses and the potential inexperience of many athletes with such courses, the model provides valuable insight to competitors who might otherwise fail to complete the event due to exhaustion or carbohydrate depletion.

Keywords: nutrition, optimization, pacing, ultramarathons

Procedia PDF Downloads 191

Authors: Farhad Salek, Shahaboddin Resalati

Abstract:

The production of electric vehicles (EVs) featuring lithium-ion battery technology has substantially escalated over the past decade, demonstrating a steady and persistent upward trajectory. The imminent retirement of electric vehicle (EV) batteries after approximately eight years underscores the critical need for their redirection towards recycling, a task complicated by the current inadequacy of recycling infrastructures globally. A potential solution for such concerns involves extending the operational lifespan of electric vehicle (EV) batteries through their utilization in stationary energy storage systems during secondary applications. Such adoptions, however, require addressing the safety concerns associated with batteries’ knee points and thermal runaways. This paper develops an accurate mathematical model representative of the second-life battery packs from a cell-to-pack scale using an equivalent circuit model (ECM) methodology. Neural network algorithms are employed to forecast the degradation parameters based on the EV batteries' aging history to develop a degradation model. The degradation model is integrated with the ECM to reflect the impacts of the cycle aging mechanism on battery parameters during operation. The developed model is tested under real-life load profiles to evaluate the life span of the batteries in various operating conditions. The methodology and the algorithms introduced in this paper can be considered the basis for Battery Management System (BMS) design and techno-economic analysis of such technologies.

Keywords: second life battery, electric vehicles, degradation, neural network

Procedia PDF Downloads 71