Search results for: artificial stock market

Authors: Amelia Faotusia

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The blue economy concept was coined by Pacific nations in recognition of the importance of sustainably managing their extensive marine territories. This is especially important for major ocean-based economic sectors of Pacific economies, such as coastal tourism. There is an absence of research, however, on the key ways in which the blue economy concept has emerged in discourse and public policy in Pacific countries, as well as how it articulates with coastal tourism. This research helps to fill such a gap with a specific focus on Tonga through the application of a post-positivist research approach to conduct a desktop study of relevant national documents and qualitative interviews with relevant government staff, civil society organizations, and tourism operators. The findings of the research reflect the importance of institutional integration and partnerships for a successful blue economy transition and are presented in the form of two case studies corresponding to two sub-sectors of Tonga’s coastal tourism sector: (i) the whale-watching and swimming industry, and (ii) beach resorts and restaurants. A thematic analysis applied to the interview data of both cases then enabled the identification of key areas and issues for socio-economic policy intervention and recommendations in support of blue economy transitions in Tonga’s coastal tourism sector. Examples of the relevant areas and issues that emerged included the importance of foreign direct investment, local market access, community-based special management areas, as well as the need to address the anthropogenic impacts of tropical cyclones, whale tourism, plastic litter on coastal assets, and ecosystems. Policy and practical interventions in support of addressing such issues include a proposed restructuring of the whale-watching and swimming licensing system; integration of climate resilience, adaptation, and capacity building as priorities of local blue economy interventions; as well as strengthening of the economic sustainability dimension of blue economy policies. Finally, this research also revealed the need for further specificity and research on the influence and value of local Tongan culture and traditional knowledge, particularly within existing customary marine tenure systems, on Tonga’s national and sectoral blue economy policies and transitions.

Keywords: blue economy, coastal tourism, integrated ocean management, ecosystem resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Masato Koizumi, Yuya Oshio, Ikkoh Funaki

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Magnetoplasma Sail (MPS) is a future spacecraft propulsion that generates high levels of thrust by inducing an artificial magnetosphere to capture and deflect solar wind charged particles in order to transfer momentum to the spacecraft. By injecting plasma in the spacecraft’s magnetic field region, the ring current azimuthally drifts on the equatorial plane about the dipole magnetic field generated by the current flowing through the solenoid attached on board the spacecraft. This ring current results in magnetosphere inflation which improves the thrust performance of MPS spacecraft. In this present study, the ring current was experimentally measured using three Rogowski Current Probes positioned in a circular array about the laboratory model of MPS spacecraft. This investigation aims to determine the detailed structure of ring current through physical experimentation performed under two different magnetic field strengths engendered by varying the applied voltage on the solenoid with 300 V and 600 V. The expected outcome was that the three current probes would detect the same current since all three probes were positioned at equal radial distance of 63 mm from the center of the solenoid. Although experimental results were numerically implausible due to probable procedural error, the trends of the results revealed three pieces of perceptive evidence of the ring current behavior. The first aspect is that the drift direction of the ring current depended on the strength of the applied magnetic field. The second aspect is that the diamagnetic current developed at a radial distance not occupied by the three current probes under the presence of solar wind. The third aspect is that the ring current distribution varied along the circumferential path about the spacecraft’s magnetic field. Although this study yielded experimental evidence that differed from the original hypothesis, the three key findings of this study have informed two critical MPS design solutions that will potentially improve thrust performance. The first design solution is the positioning of the plasma injection point. Based on the implication of the first of the three aspects of ring current behavior, the plasma injection point must be located at a distance instead of at close proximity from the MPS Solenoid for the ring current to drift in the direction that will result in magnetosphere inflation. The second design solution, predicated by the third aspect of ring current behavior, is the symmetrical configuration of plasma injection points. In this study, an asymmetrical configuration of plasma injection points using one plasma source resulted in a non-uniform distribution of ring current along the azimuthal path. This distorts the geometry of the inflated magnetosphere which minimizes the deflection area for the solar wind. Therefore, to realize a ring current that best provides the maximum possible inflated magnetosphere, multiple plasma sources must be spaced evenly apart for the plasma to be injected evenly along its azimuthal path.

Keywords: Magnetoplasma Sail, magnetosphere inflation, ring current, spacecraft propulsion

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Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Van Elslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

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About 90 percent of world merchandise trade by volume being carried by sea. Maritime transport remains as back bone behind the international trade and globalization meanwhile all seaborne goods need using at least two ports as origin and destination. Amid seaborne traded cargos, container traffic is a prosperous market with about 16% in terms of volume. Albeit containerized cargos are less in terms of tonnage but, containers carry the highest value cargos amongst all. That is why efficient handling of containers in ports is very important. Accidents are the foremost causes that lead to port inefficiency and a surge in total transport cost. Having different port safety management systems (PSMS) in place, statistics on port accidents show that numerous accidents occur in ports. Some of them claim peoples’ life; others damage goods, vessels, port equipment and/or the environment. Several accident investigation illustrate that the most common accidents take place throughout transport operation, it sometimes accounts for 68.6% of all events, therefore providing a safer workplace depends on reducing collision risk. In order to quantify risks at the port area different variables can be used as exposure measurement. One of the main motives for defining and using exposure in studies related to infrastructure is to account for the differences in intensity of use, so as to make comparisons meaningful. In various researches related to handling containers in ports and intermodal terminals, different risk exposures and also the likelihood of each event have been selected. Vehicle collision within the port area (10-7 per kilometer of vehicle distance travelled) and dropping containers from cranes, forklift trucks, or rail mounted gantries (1 x 10-5 per lift) are some examples. According to the objective of the current research, three categories of accidents selected for collision risk assessment; fall of container during ship to shore operation, dropping container during transfer operation and collision between vehicles and objects within terminal area. Later on various consequences, exposure and probability identified for each accident. Hence, reducing collision risks profoundly rely on picking the right risk exposures and probability of selected accidents, to prevent collision accidents in container terminals and in the framework of risk calculations, such risk exposures and probabilities can be useful in assessing the effectiveness of safety programs in ports.

Keywords: container terminal, collision, seaborne trade, risk exposure, risk probability

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Authors: Hengameh Hosseini

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Design of large healthcare facilities – such as hospitals, multi-service line clinics, and nursing facilities - that can accommodate patients with wide-ranging disabilities is a challenging endeavor and one that is poorly understood among healthcare facility managers, administrators, and executives. An even less-understood extension of this problem is the implications of weakly or insufficiently accommodative design of facilities for healthcare workers in physically-intensive jobs who may also suffer from a range of disabilities and who are therefore at increased risk of workplace accident and injury. Combine this reality with the vast range of facility types, ages, and designs, and the problem of universal accommodation becomes even more daunting and complex. In this study, we focus on the implication of facility design for healthcare workers suffering with low vision who also have physically active jobs. The points of difficulty are myriad and could span health service infrastructure, the equipment used in health facilities, and transport to and from appointments and other services can all pose a barrier to health care if they are inaccessible, less accessible, or even simply less comfortable for people with various disabilities. We conduct a series of surveys and interviews with employees and administrators of 7 facilities of a range of sizes and ownership models in the Northeastern United States and combine that corpus with in-facility observations and data collection to identify five major points of failure common to all the facilities that we concluded could pose safety threats to employees with vision impairments, ranging from very minor to severe. We determine that lack of design empathy is a major commonality among facility management and ownership. We subsequently propose three methods for remedying this lack of empathy-informed design, to remedy the dangers posed to employees: the use of an existing open-sourced Augmented Reality application to simulate the low-vision experience for designers and managers; the use of a machine learning model we develop to automatically infer facility shortcomings from large datasets of recorded patient and employee reviews and feedback; and the use of a computer vision model fine tuned on images of each facility to infer and predict facility features, locations, and workflows, that could again pose meaningful dangers to visually impaired employees of each facility. After conducting a series of real-world comparative experiments with each of these approaches, we conclude that each of these are viable solutions under particular sets of conditions, and finally characterize the range of facility types, workforce composition profiles, and work conditions under which each of these methods would be most apt and successful.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, healthcare workers, facility design, disability, visually impaired, workplace safety

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Authors: Tammy Wee, Detlev Remy, Arif Perdana

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In the recent years, data analytics has become the buzzword in the hospitality industry. The hospitality industry is another example of a data-rich industry that has yet fully benefited from the insights of data analytics. Effective use of data analytics can change how hotels operate, market and position themselves competitively in the hospitality industry. However, at the moment, the data obtained by individual hotels remain under-utilized. This research is a preliminary research on data analytics in the hospitality industry, using an in-depth face-to-face interview on one hotel as a start to a multi-level research. The main case study of this research, hotel A, is a chain brand of international hotel that has been systematically gathering and collecting data on its own customer for the past five years. The data collection points begin from the moment a guest book a room until the guest leave the hotel premises, which includes room reservation, spa booking, and catering. Although hotel A has been gathering data intelligence on its customer for some time, they have yet utilized the data to its fullest potential, and they are aware of their limitation as well as the potential of data analytics. Currently, the utilization of data analytics in hotel A is limited in the area of customer service improvement, namely to enhance the personalization of service for each individual customer. Hotel A is able to utilize the data to improve and enhance their service which in turn, encourage repeated customers. According to hotel A, 50% of their guests returned to their hotel, and 70% extended nights because of the personalized service. Apart from using the data analytics for enhancing customer service, hotel A also uses the data in marketing. Hotel A uses the data analytics to predict or forecast the change in consumer behavior and demand, by tracking their guest’s booking preference, payment preference and demand shift between properties. However, hotel A admitted that the data they have been collecting was not fully utilized due to two challenges. The first challenge of using data analytics in hotel A is the data is not clean. At the moment, the data collection of one guest profile is meaningful only for one department in the hotel but meaningless for another department. Cleaning up the data and getting standards correctly for usage by different departments are some of the main concerns of hotel A. The second challenge of using data analytics in hotel A is the non-integral internal system. At the moment, the internal system used by hotel A do not integrate with each other well, limiting the ability to collect data systematically. Hotel A is considering another system to replace the current one for more comprehensive data collection. Hotel proprietors recognized the potential of data analytics as reported in this research, however, the current challenges of implementing a system to collect data come with a cost. This research has identified the current utilization of data analytics and the challenges faced when it comes to implementing data analytics.

Keywords: data analytics, hospitality industry, customer relationship management, hotel marketing

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Authors: K. O’Mara, T. Cresswell

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Nearly half of the world’s population live near the coast, and as a result, estuaries and coastal bays in populated or industrialized areas often receive metal pollution. Heavy metals have a chemical affinity for sediment particles and can be stored in estuarine sediments and become biologically available under changing conditions. Organisms inhabiting estuaries can be exposed to metals from a variety of sources including metals dissolved in water, bound to sediment or within contaminated prey. Metal uptake and assimilation responses can vary even between species that are biologically similar, making pollution effects difficult to predict. A multi-trophic level experiment representing a common Eastern Australian estuarine food chain was used to study the sources for Cd, Mn and Zn uptake and assimilation in organisms occupying several trophic levels. Sand cockles (Katelysia scalarina), school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi) and sand whiting (Sillago ciliata) were exposed to radiolabelled seawater, suspended sediment and food. Three pulse-chase trials on filter-feeding sand cockles were performed using radiolabelled phytoplankton (Tetraselmis sp.), benthic microalgae (Entomoneis sp.) and suspended sediment. Benthic microalgae had lower metal uptake than phytoplankton during labelling but higher cockle assimilation efficiencies (Cd = 51%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 63 %) than both phytoplankton (Cd = 21%, Mn = 32%, Zn = 33%) and suspended sediment (except Mn; (Cd = 38%, Mn = 42%, Zn = 53%)). Sand cockles were also sensitive to uptake of Cd, Mn and Zn dissolved in seawater. Uptake of these metals from the dissolved phase was negligible in prawns and fish, with prawns only accumulating metals during moulting, which were then lost with subsequent moulting in the depuration phase. Diet appears to be the main source of metal assimilation in school prawns, with 65%, 54% and 58% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. Whiting fed contaminated prawns were able to exclude the majority of the metal activity through egestion, with only 10%, 23% and 11% assimilation efficiencies from Cd, Mn and Zn respectively. The findings of this study support previous studies that find diet to be the dominant accumulation source for higher level trophic organisms. These results show that assimilation efficiencies can vary depending on the source of exposure; sand cockles assimilated more Cd, Mn, and Zn from the benthic diatom than phytoplankton and assimilation was higher in sand whiting fed prawns compared to artificial pellets. The sensitivity of sand cockles to metal uptake and assimilation from a variety of sources poses concerns for metal availability to predators ingesting the clam tissue, including humans. The high tolerance of sand whiting to these metals is reflected in their widespread presence in Eastern Australian estuaries, including contaminated estuaries such as Botany Bay and Port Jackson.

Keywords: cadmium, food chain, metal, manganese, trophic, zinc

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Authors: Siti Hajar Muhamad Rosli, Xin Yi Lim, Terence Yew Chin Tan, Muhammad nor Farhan Sa’At, Syazwani Sirdar Ali, Ami Fazlin Syed Mohamed

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A growing interest on therapeutic benefits of hemp (Cannabis sativa subsp. sativa) is evident in the pharmaceutical market, attributed to its lower levels of psychoactive constituent delta-9-tetrahydronannabidiol (THC). Deemed as a legal and safer alternative to its counterpart marijuana, the use of medicinal hemp is highly debatable as current scientific evidence on the efficacy for clinical use is yet to be established This study was aimed to provide an overview of the current landscape of hemp research, through recent clinical findings specific to the pharmacological properties of the hemp plant and its derived compounds. A systematic search was conducted following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis-ScR (PRISMA) checklist on electronic databases (MEDLINE, OVID, Cochrane Library Central, and Clinicaltrials.gov) for articles published from 2009 to 2019. With predetermined inclusion criteria, all human trials with hemp intervention were included. A total of 18 human trials were identified, investigating therapeutic effects on the neuronal, gastrointestinal, musculoskeletal and immune system, with sample sizes ranging from one to 194 subjects. Three randomised controlled trials showed hempseed pills (in Traditional Chinese Medicine formulation MaZiRenWan) consumption significantly improved spontaneous bowel movement in functional constipation. The use of commercial cannabidiol (CBD) sourced from hemp suggested benefits in cannabis dependence, epilepsy, and anxiety disorders. However, there was insufficient evidence to suggest analgesic or anxiolytics effects of hemp being equivalent to marijuana. All clinical trials reviewed varied in terms of test item formulation and standardisation, which made it challenging to confirm overall efficacy for a specific disease or condition. Published efficacy data on hemp are still at a preliminary level, with limited high quality clinical evidence for any specific therapeutic indication. With multiple variants of this plant having different phytochemical and bioactive compounds, future empirical research should focus on uniformity in experimental designs to further strengthen the notion of using medicinal hemp.

Keywords: cannabis, complementary medicine, hemp, herbal medicine.

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Authors: José Manuel Palma, Paula Pereira, Margarida Tomás

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Foreseen the future: Human factors integration in European Horizon Projects The development of new technology as artificial intelligence, smart sensing, robotics, cobotics or intelligent machinery must integrate human factors to address the need to optimize systems and processes, thereby contributing to the creation of a safe and accident-free work environment. Human Factors Integration (HFI) consistently pose a challenge for organizations when applied to daily operations. AGILEHAND and FORTIS projects are grounded in the development of cutting-edge technology - industry 4.0 and 5.0. AGILEHAND aims to create advanced technologies for autonomously sort, handle, and package soft and deformable products, whereas FORTIS focuses on developing a comprehensive Human-Robot Interaction (HRI) solution. Both projects employ different approaches to explore HFI. AGILEHAND is mainly empirical, involving a comparison between the current and future work conditions reality, coupled with an understanding of best practices and the enhancement of safety aspects, primarily through management. FORTIS applies HFI throughout the project, developing a human-centric approach that includes understanding human behavior, perceiving activities, and facilitating contextual human-robot information exchange. it intervention is holistic, merging technology with the physical and social contexts, based on a total safety culture model. In AGILEHAND we will identify safety emergent risks, challenges, their causes and how to overcome them by resorting to interviews, questionnaires, literature review and case studies. Findings and results will be presented in “Strategies for Workers’ Skills Development, Health and Safety, Communication and Engagement” Handbook. The FORTIS project will implement continuous monitoring and guidance of activities, with a critical focus on early detection and elimination (or mitigation) of risks associated with the new technology, as well as guidance to adhere correctly with European Union safety and privacy regulations, ensuring HFI, thereby contributing to an optimized safe work environment. To achieve this, we will embed safety by design, and apply questionnaires, perform site visits, provide risk assessments, and closely track progress while suggesting and recommending best practices. The outcomes of these measures will be compiled in the project deliverable titled “Human Safety and Privacy Measures”. These projects received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020/Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement No101092043 (AGILEHAND) and No 101135707 (FORTIS).

Keywords: human factors integration, automation, digitalization, human robot interaction, industry 4.0 and 5.0

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Authors: Mohammad Ghahramani, Fahimeh Saei Manesh

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Winning a soccer game is based on thorough and deep analysis of the ongoing match. On the other hand, giant gambling companies are in vital need of such analysis to reduce their loss against their customers. In this research work, we perform deep, real-time analysis on every soccer match around the world that distinguishes our work from others by focusing on particular seasons, teams and partial analytics. Our contributions are presented in the platform called “Analyst Masters.” First, we introduce various sources of information available for soccer analysis for teams around the world that helped us record live statistical data and information from more than 50,000 soccer matches a year. Our second and main contribution is to introduce our proposed in-play performance evaluation. The third contribution is developing new features from stable soccer matches. The statistics of soccer matches and their odds before and in-play are considered in the image format versus time including the halftime. Local Binary patterns, (LBP) is then employed to extract features from the image. Our analyses reveal incredibly interesting features and rules if a soccer match has reached enough stability. For example, our “8-minute rule” implies if 'Team A' scores a goal and can maintain the result for at least 8 minutes then the match would end in their favor in a stable match. We could also make accurate predictions before the match of scoring less/more than 2.5 goals. We benefit from the Gradient Boosting Trees, GBT, to extract highly related features. Once the features are selected from this pool of data, the Decision trees decide if the match is stable. A stable match is then passed to a post-processing stage to check its properties such as betters’ and punters’ behavior and its statistical data to issue the prediction. The proposed method was trained using 140,000 soccer matches and tested on more than 100,000 samples achieving 98% accuracy to select stable matches. Our database from 240,000 matches shows that one can get over 20% betting profit per month using Analyst Masters. Such consistent profit outperforms human experts and shows the inefficiency of the betting market. Top soccer tipsters achieve 50% accuracy and 8% monthly profit in average only on regional matches. Both our collected database of more than 240,000 soccer matches from 2012 and our algorithm would greatly benefit coaches and punters to get accurate analysis.

Keywords: soccer, analytics, machine learning, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 232

Authors: A. G. Back

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In the context of global climate change, extreme weather events are increasingly intense and frequent, challenging the adaptability of urban space. In this sense, urban planning is a relevant instrument for addressing, in a systemic manner, various sectoral policies capable of linking the urban agenda to the reduction of social and environmental risks. The Master Plan of the Municipality of Sao Paulo, 2014, presents innovations capable of promoting the transition to sustainability in the urban space. Among such innovations, the following stand out: i) promotion of density in the axes of mass transport involving mixture of commercial, residential, services, and leisure uses (principles related to the compact city); ii) vulnerabilities reduction based on housing policies, including regular sources of funds for social housing and land reservation in urbanized areas; iii) reserve of green areas in the city to create parks and environmental regulations for new buildings focused on reducing the effects of heat island and improving urban drainage. However, long-term implementation involves distributive conflicts and may change in different political, economic, and social contexts over time. Thus, the central objective of this paper is to identify which factors limit or support the implementation of these policies. That is, to map the challenges and interests of converging and/or divergent urban actors in the sustainable urban development agenda and what resources they mobilize to support or limit these actions in the city of Sao Paulo. Recent proposals to amend the urban zoning law undermine the implementation of the Master Plan guidelines. In this context, three interest groups with different views of the city come into dispute: the real estate market, upper middle class neighborhood associations ('not in my backyard' movements), and social housing rights movements. This paper surveys the different interests and visions of these groups taking into account their convergences, or not, with the principles of sustainable urban development. This approach seeks to fill a gap in the international literature on the causes that underpin or hinder the continued implementation of policies aimed at the transition to urban sustainability in the medium and long term.

Keywords: adaptation, ecosystem-based adaptation, interest groups, urban planning, urban transition to sustainability

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Authors: Frezer Okubay Weldegebriel

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The tourism sector in Ethiopia plays a significant role in the national economy. The government is granting its pledge and readiness to develop this sector through various initiatives since to eradicate poverty and encourage economic development of the country is one of the Millennium Development plans. The tourism sector has been identified as one of the priority economic sectors by many countries, and the Government of Ethiopia has planned to make Ethiopia among the top five African destinations by 2020. Nevertheless, the international tourism demand for Ethiopia currently lags behind other African countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Tanzania, and Kenya. Meanwhile, the number of international tourists’ arrival in Ethiopia is recently increasing even if it cannot be competitive with other African countries. Therefore, to offer demand-driven tourism products, the Ethiopian government, Tourism planners, Tour & Travel operators need to understand the important factors, which affect international tourists’ decision to visit Ethiopian destinations. This study was intended to analyze Italian Tourists Demand towards Ethiopian destination. The researcher aimed to identify the demand for Italian tourists’ preference to Ethiopian destinations comparing to the top East African countries. This study uses both qualitative and quantitative research methodology, and the data is manipulating through primary data collection method using questionnaires, interviews, and secondary data by reviewing books, journals, magazines, past researches, and websites. An active and potential Italian tourist cohort, five well-functioning tour operators based in Ethiopia for Italian tourists and professionals from Ethiopian Ministry of Tourism and Culture participated. Based on the analysis of the data collected through the questionnaire, interviews, and reviews of different materials, the study disclosed that the majority of Italian tourists have a high demand on Ethiopian Tourist destination. Historical and cultural interest, safety and security, the hospitality of the people and affordable accommodation coast are the main reason for them. However, some Italian tourists prefer to visit Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda due to the fact that they are fascinated by adventure, safari and beaches, while Ethiopia cannot provide these attractions. Most Italian tourists have little information and practical experiences on Ethiopian tourism possibilities via a tour and travel companies. Moreover, the insufficient marketing campaign and promotion by Ethiopian Government and Ministry of Tourism could also contribute to the failure of Ethiopian tourism.

Keywords: The demand of Italian tourists, Ethiopia economy, Ethiopia tourism destination, promoting Ethiopia tourism

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Lenka Krsnakova, Petr Jirsak

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Prior research on facility location in supply chain is mostly focused on improvement of mathematical models. It is due to the fact that supply chain design has been for the long time the area of operational research that underscores mainly quantitative criteria. Qualitative criteria are still highly neglected within the supply chain design research. Facility location in the supply chain has become multi-criteria decision-making problem rather than single criteria decision due to changes of market conditions. Thus, both qualitative and quantitative criteria have to be included in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to emphasize the importance of qualitative criteria as key parameters of relevant mathematical models. We examine which criteria are taken into consideration when Czech companies decide about their facility location. A literature review on criteria being used in facility location decision making process creates a theoretical background for the study. The data collection was conducted through questionnaire survey. Questionnaire was sent to manufacturing and business companies of all sizes (small, medium and large enterprises) with the representation in the Czech Republic within following sectors: automotive, toys, clothing industry, electronics and pharmaceutical industry. Comparison of which criteria prevail in the current research and which are considered important by companies in the Czech Republic is made. Despite the number of articles focused on supply chain design, only minority of them consider qualitative criteria and rarely process supply chain design as a multi-criteria decision making problem. Preliminary results of the questionnaire survey outlines that companies in the Czech Republic see the qualitative criteria and their impact on facility location decision as crucial. Qualitative criteria as company strategy, quality of working environment or future development expectations are confirmed to be considered by Czech companies. This study confirms that the qualitative criteria can significantly influence whether a particular location could or could not be right place for a logistic facility. The research has two major limitations: researchers who focus on improving of mathematical models mostly do not mention criteria that enter the model. Czech supply chain managers selected important criteria from the group of 18 available criteria and assign them importance weights. It does not necessarily mean that these criteria were taken into consideration when the last facility location was chosen, but how they perceive that today. Since the study confirmed the necessity of future research on how qualitative criteria influence decision making process about facility location, the authors have already started in-depth interviews with participating companies to reveal how the inclusion of qualitative criteria into decision making process about facility location influence the company´s performance.

Keywords: criteria influencing facility location, Czech Republic, facility location decision-making, qualitative criteria

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Authors: Fernando Nobre Cavalcante

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In Brazil, and more recently in the city of Fortaleza, there is a new form of entrepreneurship that is focused on the information and communication technology service sector and that draws the attention of young people, investors, governments, authors and media companies: it is known as the start-up movement. Today, it is considered to be a driving force behind the creative economy. Rooted on progressive discourse, the words enterprise and innovation seduce new economic agents motivated by success stories from Silicon Valley in America along with increasing commercial activity for digital goods and services. This article assesses, from a sociological point of view, the new productive wave problematized by the light of Manuel Castells’ informational capitalism. Considering the skeptical as well as the optimistic opinions about the impact of this new entrepreneurial rearrangement, the following question is asked: How Brazilian entrepreneurs evaluate public policy incentives for startups Brazilian Federal Government? The raised hypotheses are based on employability factors as well as cultural, economical, and political matters related to innovation and technology. This study has produced a nationwide quantitative assessment with a special focus on the reality of these Ceará firms; as well as comparative qualitative interviews on Brazilian experiences lived by identified agents. This article outlines the public incentive policy of the federal government, the Start-up Brasil Program, from the perspective of these companies and provides details as to the discipline methods of the new enterprising way born in the United States. The startups are very young companies that are headed towards the economic sustainment of the productive sector services. These companies are dropping the seeds that will produce the re-enchantment of young people and bring them back to participation in political debate; they provide relief and reheats the job market; and they produce a democratization of the entrepreneurial ‘Do-It-Yourself’ culture. They capitalize the pivot of the wall street wolves and of agents being charged for new masks. There are developmental logic’s prophylaxis in the face of dreadful innovation stagnation. The lack of continuity in Brazilian governmental politics and cultural nuances related to entrepreneurship are barring the desired regional success of this ecosystem.

Keywords: creative economy, entrepreneurship, informationalism, innovation, startups, start-up brasil program

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Authors: Rowan P. Martnishn

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During the execution of a National Endowment of the Arts grant, approximately 55 interviews were collected from professionals across various fields. These interviews were used to create deliverables – historical connections for creations that began as art and evolved entirely into computing technology. With dozens of hours’ worth of transcripts to be analyzed by qualitative coders, a quantitative methodology was created to sift through the documents. The initial step was to both clean and format all the data. First, a basic spelling and grammar check was applied, as well as a Python script for normalized formatting which used an open-source grammatical formatter to make the data as coherent as possible. 10 documents were randomly selected to manually review, where words often incorrectly translated during the transcription were recorded and replaced throughout all other documents. Then, to remove all banter and side comments, the transcripts were spliced into paragraphs (separated by change in speaker) and all paragraphs with less than 300 characters were removed. Secondly, a keyword extractor, a form of natural language processing where significant words in a document are selected, was run on each paragraph for all interviews. Every proper noun was put into a data structure corresponding to that respective interview. From there, a Bidirectional and Auto-Regressive Transformer (B.A.R.T.) summary model was then applied to each paragraph that included any of the proper nouns selected from the interview. At this stage the information to review had been sent from about 60 hours’ worth of data to 20. The data was further processed through light, manual observation – any summaries which proved to fit the criteria of the proposed deliverable were selected, as well their locations within the document. This narrowed that data down to about 5 hours’ worth of processing. The qualitative researchers were then able to find 8 more connections in addition to our previous 4, exceeding our minimum quota of 3 to satisfy the grant. Major findings of the study and subsequent curation of this methodology raised a conceptual finding crucial to working with qualitative data of this magnitude. In the use of artificial intelligence there is a general trade off in a model between breadth of knowledge and specificity. If the model has too much knowledge, the user risks leaving out important data (too general). If the tool is too specific, it has not seen enough data to be useful. Thus, this methodology proposes a solution to this tradeoff. The data is never altered outside of grammatical and spelling checks. Instead, the important information is marked, creating an indicator of where the significant data is without compromising the purity of it. Secondly, the data is chunked into smaller paragraphs, giving specificity, and then cross-referenced with the keywords (allowing generalization over the whole document). This way, no data is harmed, and qualitative experts can go over the raw data instead of using highly manipulated results. Given the success in deliverable creation as well as the circumvention of this tradeoff, this methodology should stand as a model for synthesizing qualitative data while maintaining its original form.

Keywords: B.A.R.T.model, keyword extractor, natural language processing, qualitative coding

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Authors: Giovanni Duran Polo

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Demonstrate the importance of the stages such as Information, Diagnosis, Management, and Intervention is fundamental to have a historical, live, and quality inhabited center. One of the major actions to take is to promote the concept of the management of a historic center with harmonious development. For that, concerned actors should strengthen the concept that said historic center may be the neighborhood of all and for all. The centers of historical cities, presented as any other urban area, social, environmental issues etc; yet they get added value that have no other city neighborhoods. The equity component, either by the urban plan, or environmental quality offered properties of architectural, landscape or some land uses are the differentiating element, while the tool that makes them attractive face pressure exerted by new housing developments or shopping centers. That's why through the experience of working in historical centers, they are declared the actions in heritage areas. This paper will show how the encounter with each of these places are trying to take the phases of information, to gather all the data needed to be closer to the territory with specific data, diagnosis; which allowed the actors to see what state they were, felt how the heart is related to the rest of the city, show what problems affected the situation and what potential it had to compete in a global market. Also, to discuss the importance of the organization, as it is legal and normative basis for it have an order and a concept, when you know what can and what cannot, in an area where the citizen has many myth or history, when he wanted to intervene in protected buildings. It is also appropriate to show how it could develop the intervention phase, where the shares on the tangible elements and intervention for the protection of the heritage property are executed. The management is the final phase which will carry out all that was raised on paper, it's time to orient, explain, persuade, promote, and encourage citizens to take care of the heritage. It is profitable and also an obligation and it is not an insurmountable burden. It has to be said this is the time to pull all the cards to make the historical center and heritage becoming more alive today. It is the moment to make it more inhabited and to transformer it into a quality place, so citizens will cherish and understand the importance of such a place. Inhabited historical centers, endowments and equipment required, with trade quality, with constant cultural offer, with well-preserved buildings and tidy, modern and safe public spaces are always attractive for tourism, but first of all, the place should be conceived for citizens, otherwise everything will be doomed to failure.

Keywords: development, diagnosis, heritage historic center, intervention, management, patrimony

Procedia PDF Downloads 391

Authors: Djeddi Mabrouk

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The slow coming together between the Afro-Eurasia plates seems to be the main cause of the active deformation in the whole of North Africa which in consequence come true in Algeria with a large zone of deformation in an enough large limited band, southern through Saharan atlas and northern through tell atlas. Maghrebin and Atlassian Chain along North Africa are the consequence of this convergence. In junction zone, we have noticed a compressive regime NW-SE with a creases-faults structure and structured overthrust. From a geological point of view the north part of Algeria is younger then Saharan platform, it’s changing so unstable and constantly in movement, it’s characterized by creases openly reversed, overthrusts and reversed faults, and undergo perpetually complex movement vertically and horizontally. On structural level the north of Algeria it's a part of erogenous alpine peri-Mediterranean and essentially the tertiary age It’s spread from east to the west of Algeria over 1200 km.This oogenesis is extended from east to west on broadband of 100 km.The alpine chain is shaped by 3 domains: tell atlas in north, high plateaus in mid and Saharan atlas in the south In extreme south we find the Saharan platform which is made of Precambrian bedrock recovered by Paleozoic practically not deformed. The Algerian north and the Saharan platform are separated by an important accident along of 2000km from Agadir (Morocco) to Gabes (Tunisian). The seismic activity is localized essentially in a coastal band in the north of Algeria shaped by tell atlas, high plateaus, Saharan atlas. Earthquakes are limited in the first 20km of the earth's crust; they are caused by movements along faults of inverted orientation NE-SW or sliding tectonic plates. The center region characterizes Strong Earthquake Activity who locates mainly in the basin of Mitidja (age Neogene).The southern periphery (Atlas Blidéen) constitutes the June, more Important seism genic sources in the city of Algiers and east (Boumerdes region). The North East Region is also part of the tellian area, but it is characterized by a different strain in other parts of northern Algeria. The deformation is slow and low to moderate seismic activity. Seismic activity is related to the tectonic-slip earthquake. The most pronounced is that of 27 October 1985 (Constantine) of seismic moment magnitude Mw = 5.9. North-West region is quite active and also artificial seismic hypocenters which do not exceed 20km. The deep seismicity is concentrated mainly a narrow strip along the edge of Quaternary and Neogene basins Intra Mountains along the coast. The most violent earthquakes in this region are the earthquake of Oran in 1790 and earthquakes Orléansville (El Asnam in 1954 and 1980).

Keywords: alpine chain, seismicity north Algeria, earthquakes in Algeria, geophysics, Earth

Procedia PDF Downloads 401

Authors: Julio Jesus Salazar, Julio Jesus De Lama

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the fundamental objective of hydrological studies applied to the engineering field is to determine the statistically consistent volumes or water flows that, in each case, allow us to size or design a series of elements or structures to effectively manage and develop a river basin. To determine these values, there are several ways of working within the framework of traditional hydrology: (1) Study each of the factors that influence the hydrological cycle, (2) Study the historical behavior of the hydrology of the area, (3) Study the historical behavior of hydrologically similar zones, and (4) Other studies (rain simulators or experimental basins). Of course, this range of studies in a certain basin is very varied and complex and presents the difficulty of collecting the data in real time. In this complex space, the study of variables can only be overcome by collecting and transmitting data to decision centers through the Internet of things and artificial intelligence. Thus, this research work implemented the learning project of the sub-basin of the Shullcas river in the Andean basin of the Mantaro river in Peru. The sensor firmware to collect and communicate hydrological parameter data was programmed and tested in similar basins of the European Union. The Machine Learning applications was programmed to choose the algorithms that direct the best solution to the determination of the rainfall-runoff relationship captured in the different polygons of the sub-basin. Tests were carried out in the mountains of Europe, and in the sub-basins of the Shullcas river (Huancayo) and the Yauli river (Jauja) with heights close to 5000 m.a.s.l., giving the following conclusions: to guarantee a correct communication, the distance between devices should not pass the 15 km. It is advisable to minimize the energy consumption of the devices and avoid collisions between packages, the distances oscillate between 5 and 10 km, in this way the transmission power can be reduced and a higher bitrate can be used. In case the communication elements of the devices of the network (internet of things) installed in the basin do not have good visibility between them, the distance should be reduced to the range of 1-3 km. The energy efficiency of the Atmel microcontrollers present in Arduino is not adequate to meet the requirements of system autonomy. To increase the autonomy of the system, it is recommended to use low consumption systems, such as the Ashton Raggatt McDougall or ARM Cortex L (Ultra Low Power) microcontrollers or even the Cortex M; and high-performance direct current (DC) to direct current (DC) converters. The Machine Learning System has initiated the learning of the Shullcas system to generate the best hydrology of the sub-basin. This will improve as machine learning and the data entered in the big data coincide every second. This will provide services to each of the applications of the complex system to return the best data of determined flows.

Keywords: hydrology, internet of things, machine learning, river basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 155

Authors: Valentin Nickolai, Florian Pfeffel, Christian Louis Kühner

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In many industrialized nations, the demand for skilled workers rises, causing the current market for employees to be more candidate-driven than employer-driven. Therefore, losing highly skilled and experienced employees due to early or partial retirement negatively impacts firms. Therefore, finding new ways to incentivize older employees (Silver Workers) to stay longer with the company and in their job can be crucial for the success of a firm. This study analyzes how working remotely can be a valid incentive for experienced Silver Workers to stay in their job and instead work from home with more flexible working hours. An online survey with n = 684 respondents, who are employed in the service sector, has been conducted based on 13 constructs that influence job satisfaction. These have been further categorized into three groups “classic influencing factors,” “influencing factors changed by remote working,” and new remote working influencing factors,” and were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). Here, Cronbach’s alpha of the individual constructs was shown to be suitable. Furthermore, the construct validity of the constructs was confirmed by face validity, content validity, convergent validity (AVE > 0.5: CR > 0.7), and discriminant validity. Additionally, confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed the model fit for the investigated sample (CMIN/DF: 2.567; CFI: 0.927; RMSEA: 0.048). It was shown in the SEM-analysis that the influencing factor on job satisfaction, “identification with the work,” is the most significant with β = 0.540, followed by “Appreciation” (β = 0.151), “Compensation” (β = 0.124), “Work-Life-Balance” (β = 0.116), and “Communication and Exchange of Information” (β = 0.105). While the significance of each factor can vary depending on the work model, the SEM-analysis also shows that the identification with the work is the most significant factor in all three work models mentioned above and, in the case of the traditional office work model, it is the only significant influencing factor. The study shows that employees between the ages of 56 and 65 years have the highest job satisfaction when working entirely from home or remotely. Furthermore, their job satisfaction score of 5.4 on a scale from 1 (very dissatisfied) to 7 (very satisfied) is the highest amongst all age groups in any of the three work models. Due to the significantly higher job satisfaction, it can be argued that giving Silver Workers the offer to work from home or remotely can incentivize them not to opt for early retirement or partial retirement but to stay in their job full-time Furthermore, these findings can indicate that employees in the Silver Worker age are much more inclined to leave their job for early retirement if they have to entirely work in the office.

Keywords: home office, remote work instead of early or partial retirement, silver worker, structural equation modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Wayne Tarrant, Ethan Petersen

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The concept of a flat tax goes back to at least the Biblical tithe. A progressive income tax was first vociferously espoused in a small, but famous, pamphlet in 1848 (although England had an emergency progressive tax for war costs prior to this). Within a few years many countries had adopted the progressive structure. The flat tax was only reinstated in some small countries and British protectorates until Mart Laar was elected Prime Minister of Estonia in 1992. Since Estonia’s adoption of the flat tax in 1993, many other formerly Communist countries have likewise abandoned progressive income taxes. Economists had expectations of what would happen when a flat tax was enacted, but very little work has been done on actually measuring the effect. With a testbed of 21 countries in this region that currently have a flat tax, much comparison is possible. Several countries have retained progressive taxes, giving an opportunity for contrast. There are also the cases of Czech Republic and Slovakia, which have adopted and later abandoned the flat tax. Further, with over 20 years’ worth of economic history in some flat tax countries, we can begin to do some serious longitudinal study. In this paper we consider many economic variables to determine if there are statistically significant differences from before to after the adoption of a flat tax. We consider unemployment rates, tax receipts, GDP growth, Gini coefficients, and market data where the data are available. Comparisons are made through the use of event studies and time series methods. The results are mixed, but we draw statistically significant conclusions about some effects. We also look at the different implementations of the flat tax. In some countries there are equal income and corporate tax rates. In others the income tax has a lower rate, while in others the reverse is true. Each of these sends a clear message to individuals and corporations. The policy makers surely have a desired effect in mind. We group countries with similar policies, try to determine if the intended effect actually occurred, and then report the results. This is a work in progress, and we welcome the suggestion of variables to consider. Further, some of the data from before the fall of the Iron Curtain are suspect. Since there are new ruling regimes in these countries, the methods of computing different statistical measures has changed. Although we first look at the raw data as reported, we also attempt to account for these changes. We show which data seem to be fictional and suggest ways to infer the needed statistics from other data. These results are reported beside those on the reported data. Since there is debate about taxation structure, this paper can help inform policymakers of change the flat tax has caused in other countries. The work shows some strengths and weaknesses of a flat tax structure. Moreover, it provides beginnings of a scientific analysis of the flat tax in practice rather than having discussion based solely upon theory and conjecture.

Keywords: flat tax, financial markets, GDP, unemployment rate, Gini coefficient

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Harshan Tee Pee

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Climate elements include surface temperatures, rainfall patterns, humidity, type and amount of cloudiness, air pressure and wind speed and direction. Change in one element can have an impact on the regional climate. The scientific predictions indicate that global climate change will increase the number of extreme events, leading to more frequent natural hazards. Global warming is likely to intensify the risk of drought in certain parts and also leading to increased rainfall in some other parts. Drought is a slow advancing disaster and creeping phenomenon– which accumulate slowly over a long period of time. Droughts are naturally linked with aridity. But droughts occur over most parts of the world (both wet and humid regions) and create severe impacts on agriculture, basic household welfare and ecosystems. Drought condition occurs at least every three years in India. India is one among the most vulnerable drought prone countries in the world. The economic impacts resulting from extreme environmental events and disasters are huge as a result of disruption in many economic activities. The focus of this paper is to develop a comprehensive understanding about the distributional impacts of disaster, especially impact of drought on agricultural production and income through a panel study (drought year and one year after the drought) in Raikhel village, Maharashtra, India. The major findings of the study indicate that cultivating area as well as the number of cultivating households reduced after the drought, indicating a shift in the livelihood- households moved from agriculture to non-agriculture. Decline in the gross cropped area and production of various crops depended on the negative income from these crops in the previous agriculture season. All the landholding categories of households except landlords had negative income in the drought year and also the income disparities between the households were higher in that year. In the drought year, the cost of cultivation was higher for all the landholding categories due to the increased cost for irrigation and input cost. In the drought year, agriculture products (50 per cent of the total products) were used for household consumption rather than selling in the market. It is evident from the study that livelihood which was based on natural resources became less attractive to the people to due to the risk involved in it and people were moving to less risk livelihood for their sustenance.

Keywords: climate change, drought, agriculture economics, disaster impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Ibrahim Burki

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Unfortunately, all organizations (Industrial and Humanitarian/ Non-governmental organizations) are prone to fraud and corruption in their supply chain management routines. The reputational and financial fallout can be disastrous. With the growing number of companies using suppliers based in the local market has certainly increased the threat of fraud as well as corruption. There are various potential threats like, poor or non-existent record keeping, purchasing of lower quality goods at higher price, excessive entertainment of staff by suppliers, deviations in communications between procurement staff and suppliers, such as calls or text messaging to mobile phones, staff demanding extended periods of notice before they allow an audit to take place, inexperienced buyers and more. But despite all the above-mentioned threats, this research paper emphasize upon the effectiveness of well-maintained vendor/s records and sorting/filtration of vendor/s to cut down the possible threats of corruption and fraud. This exercise is applied in a humanitarian organization of Pakistan but it is applicable to whole South Asia region due to the similarity of culture and contexts. In that firm, there were more than 550 (five hundred and fifty) registered vendors. As during the disasters or emergency phases requirements are met on urgent basis thus, providing golden opportunities for the fake companies or for the brother/sister companies of the already registered companies to be involved in the tendering process without declaration or even under some different (new) company’s name. Therefore, a list of required documents (along with checklist) was developed and sent to all of the vendor(s) in the current database and based upon the receipt of the requested documents vendors were sorted out. Furthermore, these vendors were divided into active (meeting the entire set criterion) and non-active groups. This initial filtration stage allowed the firm to continue its work without a complete shutdown that is only vendors falling in the active group shall be allowed to participate in the tenders by the time whole process is completed. Likewise only those companies or firms meeting the set criterion (active category) shall be allowed to get registered in the future along with a dedicated filing system (soft and hard shall be maintained), and all of the companies/firms in the active group shall be physically verified (visited) by the Committee comprising of senior members of at least Finance department, Supply Chain (other than procurement) and Security department.

Keywords: corruption reduction, fraud prevention, supplier management, industrial/humanitarian organizations

Procedia PDF Downloads 534

Authors: Eduardas Spiriajevas

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Since the end of the 20th century, when Lithuania regained its independence, a process of demographic shrinkage started. Recently, it affects the efficiency of implementation of actions related to regional development policy and geographic scopes of created value added in the regions. The demographic structures of human resources reflect onto the regions and their economic geographic environment. Due to reshaping economies and state reforms on restructuration of economic branches such as agriculture and industry, it affects the economic significance of services’ sector. These processes influence the competitiveness of labor market and its demographic characteristics. Such vivid consequences are appropriate for the structures of human migrations, which affected the processes of demographic ageing of human resources in the regions, especially in peripheral ones. These phenomena of modern times induce the demographic shrinkage of society and its economic geographic characteristics in the actions of regional development and in regional policy. The internal and external migrations of population captured numerous regional economic disparities, and influenced on territorial density and concentration of population of the country and created the economies of spatial unevenness in such small geographically compact country as Lithuania. The processes of territorial reshaping of distribution of population create new regions and their economic environment, which is not corresponding to the main principles of regional policy and its power to create the well-being and to promote the attractiveness for economic development. These are the new challenges of national regional policy and it should be researched in a systematic way of taking into consideration the analytical approaches of regional economy in the context of economic geographic research methods. A comparative territorial analysis according to administrative division of Lithuania in relation to retrospective approach and introduction of method of location quotients, both give the results of economic geographic character with cartographic representations using the tools of spatial analysis provided by technologies of Geographic Information Systems. A set of these research methods provide the new spatially evidenced based results, which must be taken into consideration in reshaping of national regional policy in economic geographic context. Due to demographic shrinkage and increasing differentiation of economic developments within the regions, an input of economic geographic dimension is inevitable. In order to sustain territorial balanced economic development, there is a need to strengthen the roles of regional centers (towns) and to empower them with new economic functionalities for revitalization of peripheral regions, and to increase their economic competitiveness and social capacities on national scale.

Keywords: demographic shrinkage, economic geography, Lithuania, regions

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 258

Authors: Pedro Mario Gonzalez Jimenez

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The novelties introduced by the last Notice on agreements of minor importance tighten the application of the ‘De minimis’ safe harbour in the European Union. However, the undetermined legal concept of effect on trade between the Member States becomes importance at the same time. Therefore, the current analysis that the jurist should carry out in the European Union to determine if an agreement appreciably restrict competition under Article 101 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union is double. Hence, it is necessary to know how to balance the significance in competition and the significance in effect on trade between the Member States. It is a crucial issue due to the negative delimitation of restriction of competition affects the positive one. The methodology of this research is rather simple. Beginning with a historical approach to the ‘De Minimis Rule’, their main problems and uncertainties will be found. So, after the analysis of normative documents and the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice of the European Union some proposals of ‘Lege ferenda’ will be offered. These proposals try to overcome the contradictions and questions that currently exist in the European Union as a consequence of the current legal regime of agreements of minor importance. The main findings of this research are the followings: Firstly, the effect on trade is another way to analyze the importance of an agreement different from the ‘De minimis rule’. In point of fact, this concept is singularly adapted to go through agreements that have as object the prevention, restriction or distortion of competition, as it is observed in the most famous European Union case-law. Thanks to the effect on trade, as long as the proper requirements are met there is no a restriction of competition under article 101 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, even if the agreement had an anti-competitive object. These requirements are an aggregate market share lower than 5% on any of the relevant markets affected by the agreement and turnover lower than 40 million of Euros. Secondly, as the Notice itself says ‘it is also intended to give guidance to the courts and competition authorities of the Member States in their application of Article 101 of the Treaty, but it has no binding force for them’. This reality makes possible the existence of different statements among the different Member States and a confusing perception of what a restriction of competition is. Ultimately, damage on trade between the Member States could be observed for this reason. The main conclusion is that the significant effect on trade between Member States is irrelevant in agreements that restrict competition because of their effects but crucial in agreements that restrict competition because of their object. Thus, the Member States should propose the incorporation of a similar concept in their legal orders in order to apply the content of the Notice. Otherwise, the significance of the restrictive agreement on competition would not be properly assessed.

Keywords: De minimis rule, effect on trade, minor importance agreements, safe harbour

Procedia PDF Downloads 176

Authors: Yufeng Wu, Yifan Gu, Bin Li, Wei Wang

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Resource recycling process contains a subsystem with interactions of three dimensions including coupling allocation of primary and secondary resources, responsibility coordination of stakeholders in forward and reverse supply chains, and trans-boundary transfer of hidden resource and environmental responsibilities between regions. Overlap or lack of responsibilities is easy to appear at the intersection of the three management dimensions. It is urgent to make an overall design of the policy system for recycling resources. From theoretical perspective, this paper analyzes the unique external differences of resource and environment in various dimensions and explores the reason why the effects of trans-dimensional policies are strongly correlated. Taking the example of the copper resources contained in the waste electrical and electronic equipment, this paper constructs reduction effect accounting model of resources recycling and set four trans-dimensional policy scenarios including resources tax and environmental tax reform of the raw and secondary resources, application of extended producer responsibility system, promotion of clean development mechanism, and strict entry barriers of imported wastes. In these ways, the paper simulates the impact effect of resources recycling process on resource deduction and emission reduction of waste water and gas, and constructs trans-dimensional policy mix scenario through integrating dominant strategy. The results show that combined application of various dimensional policies can achieve incentive compatibility and the trans-dimensional policy mix scenario can reach a better effect. Compared with baseline scenario, this scenario will increase 91.06% copper resources reduction effect and improve emission reduction of waste water and gas by eight times from 2010 to 2030. This paper further analyzes the development orientation of policies in various dimension. In resource dimension, the combined application of compulsory, market and authentication methods should be promoted to improve the use ratio of secondary resources. In supply chain dimension, resource value, residual functional value and potential information value contained in waste products should be fully excavated to construct a circular business system. In regional dimension, it should give full play to the comparative advantages of manufacturing power to improve China’s voice in resource recycling in the world.

Keywords: resource recycling, trans-dimension, policy design, incentive compatibility, life cycle

Procedia PDF Downloads 121

Authors: A. H. Taghdisi, M. Mirmohammadi, S. Kamali

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Evening primrose (Oenothera biennis L.) is a biennial and herbaceous and one of the most important species of medicinal plants in the world. due to the production of unsaturated fatty acids such as linoleic acid, alpha-linolenic acid, etc. in its seeds and roots, and compounds such as kaempferol in its leaves, Evening primrose has important medicinal efficiency such as reducing premenstrual problems, acceleration of wound healing, inhibiting platelet aggregation, sedation of cardiovascular diseases, and treatment of viral infections. The sap of the plant is used to treat warts, and the plant itself is used as a charm against mental and spiritual diseases and poisonous animals. Its leaves have significant antibacterial activity against yellow staphylococci. It is also used in the treatment of poisoning, especially the toxication caused by the consumption of alcoholic beverages, in the treatment of arteriosclerosis and diseases caused by liver cell insufficiency. Low germination and production speed are the problems of evening primrose growth and propagation. In the present study, extracts were obtained from four components (flowers, stems, seeds, leaves) of the evening primrose plant using the Soxhlet apparatus. To measure the antibacterial properties against MDR bacteria, microbial methods, including dilution, cultivation on a plate containing nutrient agar culture medium, and disc diffusion in agar, were performed using Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli bacteria on all four extracts. The maximum antibacterial activity related to the dilution method was obtained in all extracts. In the plate culture method, antibacterial activity was obtained for all extracts in the nutrient agar medium. The maximum diameter of the non-growth halo was obtained in the disc diffusion method in agar in the leaf extract. The statistical analysis of the microbial part was done by one-way ANOVA test (SPSS). By comparing the amount of omega-3 in extracts of Iranian and foreign oils available in the market and the extracts extracted from evening primrose plant samples with gas chromatography, it is shown that the stem extract had the most omega-3 (oleic acid) and compared to the extract of the mentioned oils, it had the highest amount of omega-3 overall. Also, the amount of omega-3 in the extract of Iranian oils was much higher than in the extract of foreign oils. It should be noted that the extract of foreign oils had a more complete composition of omega-3 than the extract of Iranian oils.

Keywords: antibacterial activity, MDR bacteria, evening primrose, omega-3

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Narendra Akhadkar, Philippe Delcambre

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In power protection and control products, assembly process variations due to the individual parts manufactured from single or multi-cavity tooling is a major problem. The dimensional and geometrical variations on the individual parts, in the form of manufacturing tolerances and assembly tolerances, are sources of clearance in the kinematic joints, polarization effect in the joints, and tolerance stack-up. All these variations adversely affect the quality of product, functionality, cost, and time-to-market. Variation simulation analysis may be used in the early product design stage to predict such uncertainties. Usually, variations exist in both manufacturing processes and materials. In the tolerance analysis, the effect of the dimensional and geometrical variations of the individual parts on the functional characteristics (conditions) of the final assembled products are studied. A functional characteristic of the product may be affected by a set of interrelated dimensions (functional parameters) that usually form a geometrical closure in a 3D chain. In power protection and control products, the prerequisite is: when a fault occurs in the electrical network, the product must respond quickly to react and break the circuit to clear the fault. Usually, the response time is in milliseconds. Any failure in clearing the fault may result in severe damage to the equipment or network, and human safety is at stake. In this article, we have investigated two important functional characteristics that are associated with the robust performance of the product. It is demonstrated that the experimental data obtained at the Schneider Electric Laboratory prove the very good prediction capabilities of the variation simulation performed using CETOL (tolerance analysis software) in an industrial context. Especially, this study allows design engineers to better understand the critical parts in the product that needs to be manufactured with good, capable tolerances. On the contrary, some parts are not critical for the functional characteristics (conditions) of the product and may lead to some reduction of the manufacturing cost, ensuring robust performance. The capable tolerancing is one of the most important aspects in product and manufacturing process design. In the case of miniature circuit breaker (MCB), the product's quality and its robustness are mainly impacted by two aspects: (1) allocation of design tolerances between the components of a mechanical assembly and (2) manufacturing tolerances in the intermediate machining steps of component fabrication.

Keywords: geometrical variation, product robustness, tolerance analysis, variation simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Mballa Abanda Serge, Henda Gnakate Biba, Romaric Guemno Kuate, Akono Rufine Nicole, Petfiang Sidonie, Bella Sidonie

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The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. The main hypotheses proposed around the definition of the syllable and of music, of the common origin of music and language, should lead the reader to reflect on the cross-cutting questions raised by the debate on the notion of universals in linguistics and musicology. These are objects of controversy, and there lies its interest: the debate raises questions that are at the heart of theories on language. It is an inventive, original and innovative research thesis. A contribution to the theoretical, musicological, ethno musicological and linguistic conceptualization of languages, giving rise to the practice of interlocution between the social and cognitive sciences, the activities of artistic creation and the question of modeling in the human sciences: mathematics, computer science, translation automation and artificial intelligence. When you apply this theory to any text of a folksong of a world-tone language, you do not only piece together the exact melody, rhythm, and harmonies of that song as if you knew it in advance but also the exact speaking of this language. The author believes that the issue of the disappearance of tonal languages and their preservation has been structurally resolved, as well as one of the greatest cultural equations related to the composition and creation of tonal, polytonal and random music. The experimentation confirming the theorization, It designed a semi-digital, semi-analog application which translates the tonal languages of Africa (about 2,100 languages) into blues, jazz, world music, polyphonic music, tonal and anatonal music and deterministic and random music). To test this application, I use a music reading and writing software that allows me to collect the data extracted from my mother tongue, which is already modeled in the musical staves saved in the ethnographic (semiotic) dictionary for automatic translation ( volume 2 of the book). Translation is done (from writing to writing, from writing to speech and from writing to music). Mode of operation: you type a text on your computer, a structured song (chorus-verse), and you command the machine a melody of blues, jazz and world music or variety etc. The software runs, giving you the option to choose harmonies, and then you select your melody.

Keywords: music, entanglement, langauge, science

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Nasser Salah Eldin Mohammed Salih Shebka

Abstract:

Current problematic issues in AI fields are mainly due to those of knowledge representation conceptual theories, which in turn reflected on the entire scope of cognitive sciences. Knowledge representation methods and tools are driven from theoretical concepts regarding human scientific perception of the conception, nature, and process of knowledge acquisition, knowledge engineering and knowledge generation. And although, these theoretical conceptions were themselves driven from the study of the human knowledge representation process and related theories; some essential factors were overlooked or underestimated, thus causing critical methodological deficiencies in the conceptual theories of human knowledge and knowledge representation conceptions. The evaluation criteria of human cumulative knowledge from the perspectives of nature and theoretical aspects of knowledge representation conceptions are affected greatly by the very materialistic nature of cognitive sciences. This nature caused what we define as methodological deficiencies in the nature of theoretical aspects of knowledge representation concepts in AI. These methodological deficiencies are not confined to applications of knowledge representation theories throughout AI fields, but also exceeds to cover the scientific nature of cognitive sciences. The methodological deficiencies we investigated in our work are: - The Segregation between cognitive abilities in knowledge driven models.- Insufficiency of the two-value logic used to represent knowledge particularly on machine language level in relation to the problematic issues of semantics and meaning theories. - Deficient consideration of the parameters of (existence) and (time) in the structure of knowledge. The latter requires that we present a more detailed introduction of the manner in which the meanings of Existence and Time are to be considered in the structure of knowledge. This doesn’t imply that it’s easy to apply in structures of knowledge representation systems, but outlining a deficiency caused by the absence of such essential parameters, can be considered as an attempt to redefine knowledge representation conceptual approaches, or if proven impossible; constructs a perspective on the possibility of simulating human cognition on machines. Furthermore, a redirection of the aforementioned expressions is required in order to formulate the exact meaning under discussion. This redirection of meaning alters the role of Existence and time factors to the Frame Work Environment of knowledge structure; and therefore; knowledge representation conceptual theories. Findings of our work indicate the necessity to differentiate between two comparative concepts when addressing the relation between existence and time parameters, and between that of the structure of human knowledge. The topics presented throughout the paper can also be viewed as an evaluation criterion to determine AI’s capability to achieve its ultimate objectives. Ultimately, we argue some of the implications of our findings that suggests that; although scientific progress may have not reached its peak, or that human scientific evolution has reached a point where it’s not possible to discover evolutionary facts about the human Brain and detailed descriptions of how it represents knowledge, but it simply implies that; unless these methodological deficiencies are properly addressed; the future of AI’s qualitative progress remains questionable.

Keywords: cognitive sciences, knowledge representation, ontological reasoning, temporal logic

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