Search results for: risk estimation

Authors: Nafe Moradkhani, Frederick Benaben, Benoit Montreuil, Ali Vatankhah Barenji, Dima Nazzal

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In the context of the global pandemic, the practical management of the 2020 presidential election in the USA was a strong concern. To anticipate and prepare for this election accurately, one of the main challenges was to confront (i) forecasts of voter turnout, (ii) capacities of the facilities and, (iii) potential configuration options of resources. The approach chosen to conduct this anticipative study consists of collecting data about forecasts and using simulation models to work simultaneously on resource allocation and facility configuration of polling places in Fulton County, Georgia’s largest county. A polling place is a dedicated facility where voters cast their ballots in elections using different devices. This article presents the results of the simulations of such places facing pre-identified potential risks. These results are oriented towards the efficiency of these places according to different criteria (health, trust, comfort). Then a dynamic framework is introduced to describe risks as physical forces perturbing the efficiency of the observed system. Finally, the main benefits and contributions resulting from this simulation campaign are presented.

Keywords: performance, decision support, simulation, artificial intelligence, risk management, election, pandemics, information system

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models are dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator which is an extension of the Arellano-Bond model where past values and different transformations of past values of the potentially problematic independent variable are used as instruments together with other instrumental variables. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator augments Arellano–Bond by making an additional assumption that first differences of instrument variables are uncorrelated with the fixed effects. This allows the introduction of more instruments and can dramatically improve efficiency. It builds a system of two equations—the original equation and the transformed one—and is also known as system GMM. In this study, Finnish housing price dynamics were examined empirically by using the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimation technique together with ordinary OLS. The aim of the analysis was to provide a comparison between conventional fixed-effects panel data models and dynamic panel data models. The Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimator is suitable for this analysis for a number of reasons: It is a general estimator designed for situations with 1) a linear functional relationship; 2) one left-hand-side variable that is dynamic, depending on its own past realizations; 3) independent variables that are not strictly exogenous, meaning they are correlated with past and possibly current realizations of the error; 4) fixed individual effects; and 5) heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation within individuals but not across them. Based on data of 14 Finnish cities over 1988-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were considerable when different models and instrumenting were used. Especially, the use of different instrumental variables caused variation of model estimates together with their statistical significance. This was particularly clear when comparing estimates of OLS with different dynamic panel data models. Estimates provided by dynamic panel data models were more in line with theory of housing price dynamics.

Keywords: dynamic model, fixed effects, panel data, price dynamics

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Authors: K. Berhanu

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Improper land use results in land degradation and decline in agricultural productivity. Hence, in order to get maximum benefits out of land, proper utilization of its resources is inevitable. The present study was aimed at identifying the landcover changes in the study area in the last 25 years and determines the extent and direction of change that has occurred. The study made use of Landsat TM 1986 and 2011 Remote Sensing Satellite Image for analysis to determine the extent and pattern of rangeland change. The results of the landuse/landcover change detection showed that in the last 25 years, 3 major changes were observed, grassland and open shrub-land resource significantly decreased at a rate of 17.1km2/year and 12 km2/year/, respectively. On the other hand in 25 years dense bushland, open bush land, dense shrubland and cultivated land has shown increment in size at a rate of 0.23km2/year,13.5 km2/year, 6.3 km2/year and 0.2 km2/year, respectively within 25 years. The expansion of unpalatable woody species significantly reduced the rangeland size and availability of grasses. The consequence of the decrease in herbaceous biomass production might result in high risk of food insecurity in the area unless proper interventions are made in time.

Keywords: GIS and remote sensing, Dire District, land use/land cover, land sat TM

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Authors: F. Sangiorgio, J. Silfwerbrand, G. Mancini

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Geometric and mechanical properties all influence the resistance of RC structures and may, in certain combination of property values, increase the risk of a brittle failure of the whole system. This paper presents a statistical and probabilistic investigation on the resistance of RC beams designed according to Eurocodes 2 and 8, and subjected to multiple failure modes, under both the natural variation of material properties and the uncertainty associated with cross-section and transverse reinforcement geometry. A full probabilistic model based on JCSS Probabilistic Model Code is derived. Different beams are studied through material nonlinear analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. The resistance model is consistent with Eurocode 2. Both a multivariate statistical evaluation and the data clustering analysis of outcomes are then performed. Results show that the ultimate load behaviour of RC beams subjected to flexural and shear failure modes seems to be mainly influenced by the combination of the mechanical properties of both longitudinal reinforcement and stirrups, and the tensile strength of concrete, of which the latter appears to affect the overall response of the system in a nonlinear way. The model uncertainty of the resistance model used in the analysis plays undoubtedly an important role in interpreting results.

Keywords: modelling, Monte Carlo simulations, probabilistic models, data clustering, reinforced concrete members, structural design

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Authors: T. Warinpramote, J. Sanguanjeen, P. Pholphakwaen, S. Kittisorayut, J. Kerdtubtim, S. Palachote, M. Taweechotipatr

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Cholesterol is a type of lipid molecule which is the significant risk factor for coronary heart disease. Currently, there are many cholesterol-lowering alternative treatments especially bile salt hydrolase positive lactobacilli. BSH can cleave the peptide linkage of bile salt, which results in removal of the amino acid group from the steroid core and increases production of the new bile acid by using more cholesterol. The purpose of this study was to isolate, and screen probiotic characteristics of lactobacilli from fermented Thai foods and further investigated for their comparative BSH activity. The result showed that 2 of 81 Lactobacillus strains, JPK2-2 and JPK3-2, isolated from Brassica juncea (L.) had significantly exhibited high BSH activity. In addition, these Lactobacillus strains showed their results that the ability to tolerate acid and bile salt. Furthermore, the using of 16S rDNA sequencing for definitive microbial identifications showed that these 2 strains belong to Lactobacillus plantarum. In the future, the L. plantarum with BSH activity strains JPK2-2 and JPK3-2 may be the candidate probiotics for application in functional foods and dairy products to improve in the patient with cardiovascular diseases.

Keywords: Lactobacillus plantarum, probiotics, bile salt hydrolase, cholesterol-lowering, fermented Thai food

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Authors: Narendra Kumar

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In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45-64 years and more women than men. As in many areas of the India, non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus has become major problems. Now it is spreading among the middle class and poor at an alarming stage in India and Kerala is turning to be the world capital of diabetes. This study uses two round NSS data from the ‘National Sample Survey Organization, India’ to investigate the predictors of diabetes in Kerala. The overall estimates for diabetes prevalence among elderly show that higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. Education of respondent has been found a significant characteristics, further respondent working status, caste/tribe have substantial impact on diabetes in Kerala. The disease is more common for people who are mostly physically inactive. This whole picture is very much prominent in the urban areas compared with the rural ones. Not working elderly have significantly higher with diabetes than for those working in elderly. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with diabetes prevalence. For men and women, the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension were significantly higher in the urban population while smoking, smokeless tobacco consumption was more prevalent in the rural population. High alcohol intake increases diabetes risk among elderly. Finally these findings specified that an increase improve health care services and changing life style of elderly which should in turn raise diabetes patient survival and should decrease comorbidities due to diabetes in Kerala.

Keywords: elderly, diabetes, prevalence, Kerala

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Authors: Li-Ching Chen

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The case-control design has been widely applied in clinical and epidemiological studies to investigate the association between risk factors and a given disease. The retrospective design can be easily implemented and is more economical over prospective studies. To adjust effects for confounding factors, methods such as stratification at the design stage and may be adopted. When some major confounding factors are difficult to be quantified, a matching design provides an opportunity for researchers to control the confounding effects. The matching effects can be parameterized by the intercepts of logistic models and the conditional logistic regression analysis is then adopted. This study demonstrates an information-matrix-based goodness-of-fit statistic to test the validity of the logistic regression model for matched case-control data. The asymptotic null distribution of this proposed test statistic is inferred. It needs neither to employ a simulation to evaluate its critical values nor to partition covariate space. The asymptotic power of this test statistic is also derived. The performance of the proposed method is assessed through simulation studies. An example of the real data set is applied to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method as well.

Keywords: conditional logistic model, goodness-of-fit, information matrix, matched case-control studies

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Authors: Peter C. St. John, Michael F. Crowley, Yannick J. Bomble

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Production of chemicals from engineered organisms in a batch culture typically involves a trade-off between productivity, yield, and titer. However, strategies for strain design typically involve designing mutations to achieve the highest yield possible while maintaining growth viability. Such approaches tend to follow the principle of designing static networks with minimum metabolic functionality to achieve desired yields. While these methods are computationally tractable, optimum productivity is likely achieved by a dynamic strategy, in which intracellular fluxes change their distribution over time. One can use multi-stage fermentations to increase either productivity or yield. Such strategies would range from simple manipulations (aerobic growth phase, anaerobic production phase), to more complex genetic toggle switches. Additionally, some computational methods can also be developed to aid in optimizing two-stage fermentation systems. One can assume an initial control strategy (i.e., a single reaction target) in maximizing productivity - but it is unclear how close this productivity would come to a global optimum. The calculation of maximum theoretical yield in metabolic engineering can help guide strain and pathway selection for static strain design efforts. Here, we present a method for the calculation of a maximum theoretical productivity of a batch culture system. This method follows the traditional assumptions of dynamic flux balance analysis: that internal metabolite fluxes are governed by a pseudo-steady state and external metabolite fluxes are represented by dynamic system including Michealis-Menten or hill-type regulation. The productivity optimization is achieved via dynamic programming, and accounts explicitly for an arbitrary number of fermentation stages and flux variable changes. We have applied our method to succinate production in two common microbial hosts: E. coli and A. succinogenes. The method can be further extended to calculate the complete productivity versus yield Pareto surface. Our results demonstrate that nearly optimal yields and productivities can indeed be achieved with only two discrete flux stages.

Keywords: A. succinogenes, E. coli, metabolic engineering, metabolite fluxes, multi-stage fermentations, succinate

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Authors: Nazir Amir

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Teaching approaches to present science and mathematics content amongst academically-low-achieving students may need to be different than approaches that are adopted for the more academically-inclined students, primarily due to the different learning needs and learning styles of these students. In crafting out lessons to motivate and engage these students, teachers need to consider the backgrounds of these students and have a good understanding of their interests so that lessons can be presented in ways that appeal to them, and made relevant not just to the world around them, but also to their personal experiences. This presentation highlights how the author worked with a Professional Learning Community (PLC) of teachers in crafting out fun and feasible classroom teaching approaches to present science and mathematics content in ways that are made Relevant, Appealing, and Personal (RAP) to groups of academically-low-achieving students in Singapore. Feedback from the students and observations from their work suggest that they were engaged through the RAP-modes of instruction, and were able to appreciate the role of science and mathematics through a variety of low-cost design-based STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) activities. Such results imply that teachers teaching academically-low-achieving students, and those in under-resourced communities, could consider infusing RAP-infused instructions into their lessons in getting students develop positive attitudes towards STEM subjects.

Keywords: STEM Education, STEAM Education, Curriculum Instruction, Academically At-Risk Students, Singapore

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Authors: Muhammad Xaaceph Khan, Abida Butt, Farah Kausar

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Due to geogenic and anthropogenic factors, heavy metals concentrations increased throughout the world and deposit into soil. Thus available to different plants and travel in different food chains. The present study was designed to achieve bioaccumulation of Cd and Zn in the wheat-aphid-beetle food chain. For this purpose, wheat plants were grown in three different treatments: Cd, Zn, Cd+Zn. Data showed that Cd content in soil and wheat plant increases with increase in Cd concentration while plant weighs, panicle weight, seed number per panicle and seed weight per panicle decreases with increase in Cd content in the soil. Zn content in soil and wheat plant increases with increase in Cd concentration while plant weighs, panicle weight, seed number per panicle, and seed weight per panicle increase with an increase in Zn content in the soil. With the addition of Zn in Cd-treated soil, the uptake of Cd decreases in all parts of wheat plants. Bioaccumulation from wheat plant to aphids and then its predators were also studied. Cd concentration increases from low to high concentration in all arthropods. Same was observed in Zn concentrations, while in Cd+Zn, Cd accumulation decreases but Zn accumulates increases. Health risk index (HRI) also showed that in the presence of Zn, the HRI improves and can help to reduce health risks associated with Cd.

Keywords: aphid, beetle, bioaccumulation, cadmium, wheat, zinc

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Authors: M. Karaman, H. Catalkaya

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Due to the complex nature of cyber attacks and their effects ranging from personal to governmental level, it becomes one of the priority tasks for operation planners to take into account the risks, influences and effects of cyber attacks. However it can also be embedded or integrated technically with electronic warfare planning, cyber operation planning is needed to have a sole and broadened perspective. This perspective embodies itself firstly in operational design and then military decision making process. In order to find out the ill-structured problems, understand or visualize the operational environment and frame the problem, operational design can help support cyber operation planners and commanders. After having a broadened and conceptual startup with cyber operational design, military decision making process will follow the principles of design into more concrete elements like reaching results after risk management and center of gravity analysis of our and the enemy. In this paper we tried to emphasize the importance of cyber operational design, cyber operation planning and its integration to military decision making problem. In this foggy, uncertain and unaccountable cyber security environment, it is inevitable to stay away from cyber attacks. Therefore, a cyber operational design should be formed with line of operations, decisive points and end states in cyber then a tactical military decision making process should be followed with cyber security focus in order to support the whole operation.

Keywords: cyber operational design, military decision making process (MDMP), operation planning, end state

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Authors: Qingliang Tang

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The transition from voluntary to mandatory carbon reporting (also refers to climate reporting) poses serious challenges for accounting professionals aiming to support firms in achieving net-zero goals. The accounting literature addresses the topics that are currently bewildering accounting academics and professional accountants on how to make accounting as a useful tool for the management to achieve a carbon neutral business model. This paper explores the evolving role of carbon accounting within corporate financial reporting systems, emphasizing its integration as a crucial component. Key challenges addressed include data availability, climate risk assessment, defining reporting boundaries, selecting appropriate greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting methodologies, and integrating climate-related events into traditional financial statements. A dynamic, integrated carbon accounting framework is proposed to facilitate this transformative process effectively. Furthermore, the paper identifies critical knowledge gaps and sets forth a research agenda aimed at enhancing transparency and relevance in carbon accounting and reporting systems, thereby empowering informed decision-making. The purpose of the paper is to succinctly capture the essence of carbon accounting practice in the transitional period, focusing on the challenges, proposed solutions, and future research directions in the realm of carbon accounting and mandatory climate reporting.

Keywords: mandatory carbon reporting, carbon management, net zero target, sustainability, climate risks

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Authors: Jaspreet Kaur, Parminder Nain, Vipin Saini, Sumitra Dahiya

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Elaeocarpus sphaericus has been traditionally used in the Indian traditional medicine system for the treatment of stress, anxiety, depression, palpitation, epilepsy, migraine and lack of concentration. The study was investigated to evaluate the neurological potential such as anxiolytic, muscle relaxant and sedative activity of methanolic extract of Elaeocarpus sphaericus stem bark (MEESSB) in mice. Preliminary phytochemical screening and acute oral toxicity of MEESSB was carried out by using standard methods. The anxiety was induced by employing Elevated Plus-Maze (EPM), Light and Dark Test (LDT), Open Field Test (OFT) and Social Interaction test (SIT). The motor coordination and sedative effect was also observed by using actophotometer, rota-rod apparatus and ketamine-induced sleeping time, respectively. Animals were treated with different doses of MEESSB (i.e.100, 200, 400 and 800 mg/kg orally) and diazepam (2 mg/kg i.p) for 21 days. Brain neurotransmitters like dopamine, serotonin and nor-epinephrine level were estimated by validated methods. Preliminary phytochemical analysis of the extract revealed the presence of tannins, phytosterols, steroids and alkaloids. In the acute toxicity studies, MEESSB was found to be non-toxic and with no mortality. In anxiolytic studies, the different doses of MEESSB showed a significant (p<0.05) effect on EPM and LDT. In OFT and SIT, a significant (p<0.05) increase in ambulation, rearing and social interaction time was observed. In the case of motor coordination activity, the MEESSB does not cause any significant effect on the latency to fall off from the rotarod bar as compared to the control group. Moreover, no significant effects on ketamine-induced sleep latency and total sleeping time induced by ketamine were observed. Results of neurotransmitter estimation revealed the increased concentration of dopamine, whereas the level of serotonin and nor-epinephrine was found to be decreased in the mice brain, with MEESSB at dose 800 mg/kg only. The study has validated the folkloric use of the plant as an anxiolytic in Indian traditional medicine while also suggesting potential usefulness in the treatment of stress and anxiety without causing sedation.

Keywords: anxiolytic, behavior experiments, brain neurotransmitters, elaeocarpus sphaericus

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Authors: Emilia-Gheorghina Negru

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As an EU goal, gender diversity in early year’s education aims and promotes equality of chances and respect for gender peculiarities of the pupils which are involved in formal educational activities. Early year’s education, as the first step to the Curriculum, prints to teachers the need to identify the role of the gender dimension on this stage, depending on the age level of preschool children through effective, complex, innovative and analytical awareness of gender diversity teaching and management strategies. Through gender educational work we, as teachers, will examine the effectiveness of the PATHS (Promoting Alternative Thinking Strategies) curriculum the gender development of school-aged children. PATHS and a school-based preventive intervention model are necessary to be designed to improve children's ability to discuss and understand equality and gender concepts. Our teachers must create an intervention model and provide PATHS lessons during the school year. Results of the intervention will be effective for both low- and high-risk children in improving their range of math’s skills for girls and vocabulary, fluency and emotional part for boys in discussing gender experiences, their efficacy beliefs regarding the management of equality in gender area, and their developmental understanding of some aspects of gender.

Keywords: gender, gender differences, gender equality, gender role, gender stereotypes

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Authors: Shirin Sarejloo

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Background: Electrophysiological-related manifestation of COVID-19 is a matter of debate in the literature nowadays. A wide spectrum of arrhythmias was observed among patients who have been infected with COVID-19. Objectives: This study discussed the prevalence of arrhythmias and conduction system disease in patients with COVID-19. Method: In this retrospective study, demographic and electrocardiographic data of 432 expired COVID-19 patients who had been admitted to Faghihi Hospital of Shiraz University of Medical Sciences from August2020 until December 2020 were reviewed. Results: Atrioventricular nodal block (AVB) was found in 40(9.3%) patients. Furthermore, 28(6.5%) of them suffered from the first degree of AVB, and 12(2.8%) suffered from complete heart block (CHB). Among 189 cases (59.0%), ST-T changes agreed with myocardial infarction or localized myocarditis. Findings of myocardial injury, including fragmented QRS and prolonged QTc were observed among 91 (21.1%) and 28 (6.5%), respectively. In victims of COVID-19, conduction disease was not related to any comorbidities. Fragmented QRS, axis deviation, presence of S1Q3T3, and poor R wave progression were significantly related to conduction system abnormalities in victims of COVID-19 (P-value > 0.05). Conclusion: Our findings can serve in future studies that aim to develop a risk stratification method for susceptible COVID-19 patients. The myocardial injury appears to role significantly in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Consequently, we recommend health policymakers consider separate catheterization laboratories that provide service only to COVID-19 patients.

Keywords: COVID-19, conduction system, ECG, atrioventricular block

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Authors: Cinzia Cruder, Deborah Falla, Francesca Mangili, Laura Azzimonti, Liliana Araujo, Aaron Williamon, Marco Barbero

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Background and aims: According to the existing literature, musicians are at risk to experience a range of musculoskeletal painful conditions. Recently, digital technology has been developed to investigate pain location and pain extent. The aim of this study was to describe pain location and pain extent in musicians using a digital method for pain drawing analysis. Additionally, the association between pain drawing (PD) variables and clinical features in musicians with pain were explored. Materials and Methods: One hundred fifty-eight musicians (90 women and 68 men; age 22.4±3.6 years) were recruited from Swiss and UK conservatoires. Participants were asked to complete a survey including both background musical information and clinical features, the Quick Dash (QD) questionnaire and the digital PDs. Results: Of the 158 participants, 126 musicians (79.7%) reported having pain, with more prevalence in the areas of the neck and shoulders, the lower back and the right arm. The mean of pain extent was 3.1% ±6.5. The mean of QD was larger for musicians showing the presence of pain than for those without pain. Additionally, the results indicated a positive correlation between QD score and pain extent, and there were significant correlations between age and pain intensity, as well as between pain extent and pain intensity. Conclusions: The high prevalence of pain among musicians has been confirmed using a digital PD. In addition, positive correlations between pain extent and upper limb disability has been demonstrated. Our findings highlight the need for effective prevention and treatment strategies for musicians.

Keywords: pain location, pain extent, musicians, pain drawings

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Authors: Nipun Manirajan, Heeralal Gargama, Sushil Guhe, Manoj Prabhakaran

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In railway industry, train sets are designed based on contractual requirements (mission profile), where reliability targets are measured in terms of mean distance between failures (MDBF). However, during the beginning of revenue services, trains do not achieve the designed mission profile distance (mileage) within the timeframe due to infrastructure constraints, scarcity of commuters or other operational challenges thereby not respecting the original design inputs. Since trains do not run sufficiently and do not achieve the designed mileage within the specified time, car builder has a risk of not achieving the contractual MDBF target. This paper proposes a constant failure rate based model to deal with the situations where mileage accumulation is not a part of the design mission profile. The model provides appropriate MDBF target to be demonstrated based on actual accumulated mileage. A case study of rolling stock running in the field is undertaken to analyze the failure data and MDBF target demonstration during low mileage accumulation. The results of case study prove that with the proposed method, reliability targets are achieved under low mileage accumulation.

Keywords: mean distance between failures, mileage-based reliability, reliability target appropriations, rolling stock reliability

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Authors: Maha Salah, Hanaa Hashem, Mahmoud M. Alsagheir, Mohammed Salah

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Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) represents a complex clinical syndrome and carries a high risk for mortality. The severity of the clinical course, the uncertainty of the outcome, and the reliance on the full spectrum of critical care resources for treatment mean that the entire health care team is challenged. Researchers and clinicians have investigated the nature of the pathological process and explored treatment options with the goal of improving outcome. Through this application of research to practice, we know that some previous strategies have been ineffective, and innovations in mechanical ventilation, sedation, nutrition, and pharmacological intervention remain important research initiatives. Developed Clinical pathway is multidisciplinary plans of best clinical practice for this specified groups of patients that aid in the coordination and delivery of high quality care. They are a documented sequence of clinical interventions that help a patient to move, progressively through a clinical experience to a desired outcome. Although there is a lot of heterogeneity in patients with ARDS, this suggested developed clinical pathway with alternatives was built depended on a lot of researches and evidence based medicine and nursing practices which may be helping these patients to improve outcomes, quality of life and decrease mortality.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), clinical pathway, clinical syndrome

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Authors: Saurav Kumar

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Rural-urban migration is the most commonly adopted strategy in rural areas to overcome the risk associated with the subsistence economy and diversify income. The Garhwal Himalaya has the highest rate of rural-urban migration in India, which has serious repercussions. Despite this, there is a dearth of literature on the implications of rural-urban migration in the Garhwal Himalaya. This paper attempts to fill this void. The objectives of the paper are to look into various types, patterns, determinants, and implications of rural-urban migration in the Garhwal Himalaya. In order to meet the objectives, 15 villages were selected from five districts of the Garhwal Himalaya. In every district, three villages were chosen from different altitudes, including five from river valleys, five from mid-altitudes, and five from highlands. The villages range in altitude from 550m to 2660m. A total of 658 households were surveyed from the villages, covering 100% samples from each village. Using a structured questionnaire, the author asked the heads of each household about the types of rural-urban migration they practiced, the year of first migration, destinations of migration, and reasons for migration. Further, migrants’ age, sex, caste, marital status, educational background, income, occupation, and remittances sent by migrants were also inquired about. The study reveals that rural-urban migration is a serious problem in Garhwal Himalayas, posing various socio-economic issues. Without immediate action, it will have serious consequences. Finally, this study suggests some policy measures to minimize the current rate of rural-urban migration in the Garhwal Himalaya.

Keywords: rural-urban migration, Garhwal Himalaya, patterns, determinants, implications

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Authors: Michał Witas

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This paper presents a technical approach to analysis of security of SCADA systems. Main goal of the paper is to make SCADA administrators aware of risks resulting from SCADA systems usage and to familiarize with methods that can be adopt to existing or planned system, to increase overall system security level. Because SCADA based systems become a industrial standard, more attention should be paid to the security of that systems. Industrial Control Systems (ICS) like SCADA are responsible for controlling crucial aspects of wide range of industrial processes. In pair with that responsibility, goes a lot of money that can be earned or lost – this fact is main reason of increased interest of attackers. Additionally ICS are often responsible for maintaining resources strategic from the point of view of national economy, like electricity (including nuclear power plants), heating, water resources or military facilities, so they can be targets of terrorist cybernetic attacks. Without proper risk analysis and management, vulnerabilities resulting from the usage of SCADA can be easily exploited by potential attacker. Paper is based mostly on own experience in systems security, gathered during academic studies and professional work in international company. As title suggests, it will cover only basics of topic, because every of points mentioned in the document can be base for additional research and papers.

Keywords: denial of service, SCADA, security policy, distributed network

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Authors: Sheila R. Pai, N. K. Subbalakshmi, C. Vidya

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Background: Accumulating evidence from prospective studies suggests an increased risk of type 2 diabetes associated with sleep deprivation and sleep disorders. Shift work by disrupting the circadian rhythm, could possibly cause metabolic disturbances. Objective: To investigate the influence of shift work on fasting blood glucose in hospital workers population. Materials and Methods: This was a cross-sectional study including 90 night shift workers (study group) and 90 day workers (controls) drawn from paramedical personnel. Night shift work was on a forward rotation basis, with an average of one night shift every 4 weeks. Each night shift rotation was for a period of 7 days, with a total of 8 hours of shift work per night. In the entire subjects body mass index (BMI) and fasting blood sugar (FBS) was measured. Statistical analysis included unpaired t test, Mann-Whitney ‘U’ test and Chi-square test. P value less than 0.05 was considered significant. Result: The study and control groups were comparable with regard to age, sex distribution and duration of employment. FBS was higher in study group compared to controls (p < 0.0001). There was no significant difference in BMI between control and study group. Conclusion: Shift work may adversely influence glucose metabolism.

Keywords: shift work, fasting blood sugar, sleep disturbances, diabetes

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Authors: O. E. Akinyemi, P. O. Alege, O. O. Ajayi, L. A. Amaghionyediwe, A. A. Ogundipe

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Nigeria as an oil-producing developing country in Africa is one of the many countries that had been subsidizing consumption of fossil fuel. Despite the numerous advantage of this policy ranging from increased energy access, fostering economic and industrial development, protecting the poor households from oil price shocks, political considerations, among others; they have been found to impose economic cost, wasteful, inefficient, create price distortions discourage investment in the energy sector and contribute to environmental pollution. These negative consequences coupled with the fact that the policy had not been very successful at achieving some of its stated objectives, led to a number of organisations and countries such as the Group of 7 (G7), World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Energy Agency (IEA), Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), among others call for global effort towards reforming fossil fuel subsidies. This call became necessary in view of seeking ways to harmonise certain existing policies which may by design hamper current effort at tackling environmental concerns such as climate change. This is in addition to driving a green growth strategy and low carbon development in achieving sustainable development. The energy sector is identified to play a vital role. This study thus investigates the prospects of using fuel subsidy reform as a viable tool in driving an economy that de-emphasizes carbon growth in Nigeria. The method used is the Johansen and Engle-Granger two-step Co-integration procedure in order to investigate the existence or otherwise of a long-run equilibrium relationship for the period 1971 to 2011. Its theoretical framework is rooted in the Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) hypothesis. In developing three case scenarios (case of subsidy payment, no subsidy payment and effective subsidy), findings from the study supported evidence of a long run sustainable equilibrium model. Also, estimation results reflected that the first and the second scenario do not significantly influence the indicator of environmental quality. The implication of this is that in reforming fuel subsidy to drive environmental quality for an economy like Nigeria, strong and effective regulatory framework (measure that was interacted with fuel subsidy to yield effective subsidy) is essential.

Keywords: environmental quality, fuel subsidy, green growth, low carbon growth strategy

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Authors: Chenyu Huang, Minrong Cui, Hua Fang, Luqing Zhang, Yunlong Yu

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The emergence and spread of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) have become a pressing issue in global agricultural production. However, understanding how these ARGs spread across different spatial scales, especially when exposed to both pesticides and antibiotics, has remained a challenge. Here, metagenomic assembly and binning methodologies were used to determine the mechanism of ARG propagation within soil-lettuce systems exposed to both fungicides and antibiotics. The results of our study showed that the presence of fungicide and antibiotic stresses had a significant impact on certain bacterial communities. Notably, we observed that ARGs were primarily transferred from the soil to the plant through plasmids. The selective pressure exerted by fungicides and antibiotics contributed to an increase in unique ARGs present on lettuce leaves. Moreover, ARGs located on chromosomes and plasmids followed different transmission patterns. The presence of diverse selective pressures, a result of compound treatments involving antibiotics and fungicides, amplifies this phenomenon. Consequently, there is a higher probability of bacteria developing multi-antibiotic resistance under the combined pressure of fungicides and antibiotics. In summary, our findings highlight that combined fungicide and antibiotic treatments are more likely to drive the acquisition of ARGs within the soil-plant system and may increase the risk of human ingestion.

Keywords: soil-lettuce system, fungicide, antibiotic, ARG, transmission

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Authors: Maria Angelica Trak-Fellermeier, Alison K. Macchi, Rodolfo Galvan, Yolangel Hernandez, Thresia Gambon, Rebeca Martinez, Cristina Palacios

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Poor lifestyle habits, vitamin D deficiency, and inadequate calcium intake, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, may contribute to severe osteopenia in childhood, increasing future fractures and osteoporosis risk. We here present a case of osteopenia in a 13-year-old white, Hispanic, premenarchal girl who completed the baseline visit of the MetA-Bone Trial during the COVID-19 pandemic. The premenarchal girl has a family history of osteoporosis (maternal grandfather) but no previous fractures; moderate outdoor activity was <1 hour/day 3 times/week with 8 hours/day of sleep. Consumption of dairy products and vegetables was <1 serving/day. Lab blood tests confirmed vitamin D deficiency (serum 25(OH)D: 9 ng/L) and hyperphosphatemia (5.2 mg/dL); other tests were normal. DXA scan Z‐score was ‐2.2 SD (indicative of osteopenia by age and sex). The premenarchal girl was referred to a pediatrician, who confirmed the results, and prescribed a daily supplement with 2000 IU of vitamin D and 1000 mg of calcium. Seclusion during the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed to the severity of the findings. Therefore, we recommend screening children undergoing growth spurts for vitamin D, calcium, and poor lifestyle habits during and after the pandemic.

Keywords: bone mass, vitamin D, puberty, Hispanic

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Authors: V. I. Kozyavkin, L. F. Shestopalova, T. B. Voloshyn

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Introduction: Rehabilitation of children with Autism is the issue of the day in psychiatry and neurology. It is attributed to constantly increasing quantity of autistic children - Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Existing rehabilitation approaches in treatment of children with Autism improve their medico- social and social- psychological adjustment. Experience of treatment for different kinds of Autistic disorders in International Clinic of Rehabilitation (ICR) reveals the necessity of complex intensive approach for healing this malady and wider implementation of a Kozyavkin method for treatment of children with ASD. Methods: 19 children aged from 3 to 14 years were examined. They were diagnosed ‘Autism’ (F84.0) with comorbid neurological pathology (from pyramidal insufficiency to para- and tetraplegia). All patients underwent rehabilitation in ICR during two weeks, where INRS approach was used. INRS included methods like biomechanical correction of the spine, massage, physical therapy, joint mobilization, wax-paraffin applications. They were supplemented by art- therapy, ergotherapy, rhythmical group exercises, computer game therapy, team Olympic games and other methods for improvement of motivation and social integration of the child. Estimation of efficacy was conducted using parent’s questioning and done twice- on the onset of INRS rehabilitation course and two weeks afterward. For efficacy assessment of rehabilitation of autistic children in ICR standardized tool was used, namely Autism Treatment Evaluation Checklist (ATEC). This scale was selected because any rehabilitation approaches for the child with Autism can be assessed using it. Results: Before the onset of INRS treatment mean score according to ATEC scale was 64,75±9,23, it reveals occurrence in examined children severe communication, speech, socialization and behavioral impairments. After the end of the rehabilitation course, the mean score was 56,5±6,7, what indicates positive dynamics in comparison to the onset of rehabilitation. Generally, improvement of psychoemotional state occurred in 90% of cases. Most significant changes occurred in the scope of speech (16,5 before and 14,5 after the treatment), socialization (15.1 before and 12,5 after) and behavior (20,1 before and 17.4 after). Conclusion: As a result of INRS rehabilitation course reduction of autistic symptoms was noted. Particularly improvements in speech were observed (children began to spell out new syllables, words), there was some decrease in signs of destructiveness, quality of contact with the surrounding people improved, new skills of self-service appeared. The prospect of the study is further, according to evidence- based medicine standards, deeper examination of INRS and assessment of its usefulness in treatment for Autism and ASD.

Keywords: intensive neurophysiological rehabilitation system (INRS), international clinic od rehabilitation, ASD, rehabilitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Alaa Koaik, Bruno Jurkiewiez, Sylvain Bel

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Recently, the use of GFRP pultruded profiles increased in the domain of civil engineering especially in the construction of sandwiched slabs and footbridges. However, under heavy loads, the risk of using these profiles increases due to their high deformability and instability as a result of their weak stiffness and orthotropic nature. A practical solution proposes the assembly of these profiles with concrete slabs to create a stiffer hybrid element to support higher loads. The connection of these two elements is established either by traditional means of steel studs (bolting in our case) or bonding technique. These two techniques have their advantages and disadvantages regarding the mechanical behavior and in-situ implementation. This paper presents experimental results of interface characterization and bending behavior of two hybrid beams, PB7 and PB8, designed and constructed using both connection techniques. The results obtained are exploited to design and build a hybrid footbridge BPBP1 which is tested within service limits (elastic domain). Analytical methods are also developed to analyze the behavior of these structures in the elastic range and the ultimate phase. Comparisons show acceptable differences mainly due to the sensitivity of the GFRP moduli as well as the non-linearity of concrete elements.

Keywords: analytical model, concrete, flexural behavior, GFRP pultruded profile, hybrid structure, interconnection slip, push-out

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Gerges Samaan Henin Abdalla

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Ultra-secured methods of banking services have been introduced to the customer, such as online banking. Banks have begun to consider electronic banking (e-banking) as a way to replace some traditional branch functions by using the Internet as a distribution channel. Some consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. Not only is it time consuming, but it is also a repeatable activity with a certain frequency. To solve this problem, the concept of account aggregation was added as a solution. Account consolidation in e-banking as a form of electronic banking appears to build a stronger relationship with customers. An account linking service is generally referred to as a service that allows customers to manage their bank accounts held at different institutions via a common online banking platform that places a high priority on security and data protection. Consumers have at least one account at multiple banks and access these accounts through online banking. To check their current net worth, clients need to log into each of their accounts, get detailed information, and work toward consolidation. The article provides an overview of the account aggregation approach in e-banking as a new service in the area of e-banking.

Keywords: compatibility, complexity, mobile banking, observation, risk banking technology, Internet banks, modernization of banks, banks, account aggregation, security, enterprise development

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Nevila Alliu, Saimir Heta, Ilma Robo, Vera Ostreni

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Periodontitis as an oral pathology caused by specific bacterial flora functions as a focal infection for the onset and aggravation of arteriosclerosis. These two distant pathologies, since they affect organs at a distance from each other, communicate with each other with correlation at the level of markers of inflammation in the blood. Fluctuations in the level of fibrinogen in the blood, depending on the active or passive phase of the existing periodontitis, affect the promotion of arteriosclerosis. The study is of the review type to analyze the effect of non-surgical periodontal treatment on fluctuations in the level of fibrinogen in the blood. The reduction of fibrinogen levels in the blood after non-surgical periodontal treatment of periodontitis in the patient's cavity is visible data and supported by literature sources. Also, the influence of a high amount of fibrinogen in the blood on the occurrence of arteriosclerosis is also another important data that again relies on many sources of literature. Conclusions: Thromboembolism and arteriosclerosis, as risk factors expressed in clinical data, have temporary bacteremia in the blood, which can occur significantly and often between phases of non-surgical periodontal treatment of periodontitis, treatments performed with treatment phases and protocols of predetermined treatment. Arterial thromboembolism has a significant factor, such as high levels of fibrinogen in the blood, which are significantly reduced during the period of non-surgical periodontal treatment.

Keywords: fibrinogen, refractory periodontitis, atherosclerosis, non-surgical, periodontal treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Zhenyu Yang, Qiunan Chen, Xiaocheng Huang

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Reliable prediction of tunnel collapse remains a prominent challenge in the field of civil engineering. In this study, leveraging the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion and the upper-bound theorem, an analytical solution for the collapse surface of shallowly buried circular tunnels was derived, taking into account the coupled effects of surface loads and pore water pressures. Initially, surface loads and pore water pressures were introduced as external force factors, equating the energy dissipation rate to the external force, yielding our objective function. Subsequently, the variational method was employed for optimization, and the outcomes were juxtaposed with previous research findings. Furthermore, we utilized the deduced equation set to systematically analyze the influence of various rock mass parameters on collapse shape and extent. To validate our analytical solutions, a comparison with prior studies was executed. The corroboration underscored the efficacy of our proposed methodology, offering invaluable insights for collapse risk assessment in practical engineering applications.

Keywords: tunnel roof stability, analytical solution, hoek–brown failure criterion, limit analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 86

Authors: Hadi Abdollahi, Bijan Iraj, Maryam Mirpourian, Behzad Shariatifar

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Background: The aim of the present study was to determine the relationship between neck circumferences (NC), as an indicator of upper body obesity, with anthropometric and cardio-metabolic factors among the first degree relatives of diabetes patients. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on first degree relatives of diabetes patients (n = 213). Weight, height, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and NC were measured. Laboratory data included oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) results, high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein, triglyceride (TG) and total cholesterol. Results: There was no difference in NC among different results of OGTT in men or women. Factors including weight, body mass index (BMI), WC and HC were strongly associated with NC in both genders (r = 0.420-0.711). NC was weakly associated with SBP in women (r = 0.195) and moderately with DBP in men (r = 0.314). Regarding lipid profile, HDL and TG were associated with NC only in women (r = −0.268-0.325). Conclusions: NC has a significant correlation with gender and anthropometric variables, including BMI, weight and waist and HCs in both men and women, but it does not differ significantly in patients with different status in OGTT.

Keywords: body mass index, cardiovascular, diabetes, neck circumference, obesity

Procedia PDF Downloads 78