Search results for: urban dynamics modelling

Authors: Shahab Azimi, Siamak Arzanpour, Anahita Sayyar

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Asthma and Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are common lung diseases that have a significant global impact. Pressurized metered dose inhalers (pMDIs) are widely used for treatment, but they can have limitations such as high medication release speed resulting in drug deposition in the mouth or oral cavity and difficulty achieving proper synchronization with inhalation by users. Spacers are add-on devices that improve the efficiency of pMDIs by reducing the release speed and providing space for aerosol particle breakup to have finer and medically effective medication. The aim of this study is to optimize the size and cylindrical shape of spacers to enhance their drug delivery performance. The study was based on fluid dynamics theory and employed Ansys software for simulation and optimization. Results showed that optimization of the spacer's geometry greatly influenced its performance and improved drug delivery. This study provides a foundation for future research on enhancing the efficiency of inhalation therapy for lung diseases.

Keywords: asthma, COPD, pressurized metered dose inhalers, spacers, CFD, shape optimization

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Authors: Shirley Lamptey, Lingling Li, Junhong Xie

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Agriculture in the semi-arid is often challenged by overuse of N, inadequate soil water, and heavy carbon emissions thereby threatening sustainability. Field experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of nitrogen fertilization levels (0-N₀, 100-N₁₀₀, 200-N₂₀₀, and 300 kg ha⁻¹-N₃₀₀) on soil water dynamics, soil respiration (Rs), net ecosystem production (NEP), and biomass yield. Zero nitrogen soils decreased Rs by 23% and 16% compared to N₃₀₀ and N₂₀₀ soils, respectively. However, biomass yield was greatest under N₃₀₀ compared with N₀, which therefore translated into increased net primary production (NPP) by 89% and NEP by 101% compared to N₀. To a lesser extent, N₂₀₀ increased net primary production by 69% and net ecosystem production by 79% compared to N₀. Grain yields were greatest under N₃₀₀ compared with N₁₀₀ and N₀, which therefore translated into increased carbon emission efficiency (CEE) by 53%, 39% and 3% under N₃₀₀ compared to N₀, N₁₀₀, and N₂₀₀ treatments respectively. Under the conditions of this study, crop yield and CEE may be optimized at nitrogen application rates in the range of 200-300 kg ha⁻¹. Based on these results, there appears potential for 200 kg N ha⁻¹ to be used to improve yield and increase CEE in the context of the rainfall-limiting environment.

Keywords: carbon emission, carbon emission efficiency, C sequestration, N rates, semi-arid

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Authors: Sushil Kumar Singh, Ashok Kumar, Ankit Ganeshpurkar, Ravi Singh, Devendra Kumar

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In spectrum of neurodegenerative diseases, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is characterized by the presence of amyloid β plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain. It results in cognitive and memory impairment due to loss of cholinergic neurons, which is considered to be one of the contributing factors. Donepezil, an acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitor which also inhibits butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and improves the memory and brain’s cognitive functions, is the most successful and prescribed drug to treat the symptoms of AD. The present work is based on designing of the selective BuChE inhibitors using computational techniques. In this work, machine learning models were trained using classification algorithms followed by screening of diverse chemical library of compounds. The various molecular modelling and simulation techniques were used to obtain the virtual hits. The amide derivatives of 4-(phenylsulfonamido) benzoic acid were synthesized and characterized using 1H & 13C NMR, FTIR and mass spectrometry. The enzyme inhibition assays were performed on equine plasma BuChE and electric eel’s AChE by method developed by Ellman et al. Compounds 31, 34, 37, 42, 49, 52 and 54 were found to be active against equine BuChE. N-(2-chlorophenyl)-4-(phenylsulfonamido)benzamide and N-(2-bromophenyl)-4-(phenylsulfonamido)benzamide (compounds 34 and 37) displayed IC50 of 61.32 ± 7.21 and 42.64 ± 2.17 nM against equine plasma BuChE. Ortho-substituted derivatives were more active against BuChE. Further, the ortho-halogen and ortho-alkyl substituted derivatives were found to be most active among all with minimal AChE inhibition. The compounds were selective toward BuChE.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, butyrylcholinesterase, machine learning, sulfonamides

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar, Nilam

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As we know that, time delay exists almost in every biological phenomenon. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic model along with time delay, modulated incidence rate of infection, and Holling Type II nonlinear treatment rate. The present model aims to provide a strategy to control the spread of epidemics. In the mathematical study of the model, it has been shown that the model has two equilibriums which are named as disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Further, stability analysis of the model is discussed. To prove the stability of the model at DFE, we derived basic reproduction number, denoted by (R₀). With the help of basic reproduction number (R₀), we showed that the model is locally asymptotically stable at DFE when the basic reproduction number (R₀) less than unity and unstable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is greater than unity. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at endemic equilibrium has also been discussed. Finally, numerical simulations have been done using MATLAB 2012b to exemplify the theoretical results.

Keywords: time delayed SIR epidemic model, modulated incidence rate, Holling type II nonlinear treatment rate, stability

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Authors: Muhammad Noor Ul Ane, Dong-Soon Kim, Myron P. Zalucki

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Models can be useful to help understand population dynamics of insects under diverse environmental conditions and in developing strategies to manage pest species better. Adult longevity and fecundity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) were evaluated against a wide range of constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 37.5ᵒC). The modified Sharpe and DeMichele model described adult aging rate and was used to estimate adult physiological age. Maximum fecundity of H. armigera was 973 egg/female at 25ᵒC decreasing to 72 eggs/female at 37.5ᵒC. The relationship between adult fecundity and temperature was well described by an extreme value function. Age-specific cumulative oviposition rate and age-specific survival rate were well described by a two-parameter Weibull function and sigmoid function, respectively. An oviposition model was developed using three temperature-dependent components: total fecundity, age-specific oviposition rate, and age-specific survival rate. The oviposition model was validated against independent field data and described the field occurrence pattern of egg population of H. armigera very well. Our model should be a useful component for population modeling of H. armigera and can be independently used for the timing of sprays in management programs of this key pest species.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, life table, temperature-dependent adult development, temperature-dependent fecundity

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Authors: R. B. B. Samantha Ramachandra, L. D. J. Upul Senarath, S. H. Padmal De Silva

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Dietary pattern largely differs over countries and even within a country, it shows cultural differences. The dietary pattern changes the energy consumption and micronutrient intake, directly affects the pregnancy outcome. The dietary diversity was used as an indirect measure to assess micronutrient adequacy for pregnant mothers in this study. The study was conducted as a baseline survey with the objective of designing an intervention to improve the dietary diversity of pregnant mothers in Sri Lanka. The survey was conducted in Kalutara district of Sri Lanka in 2015 among 769 pregnant mothers at different gestational ages. Dietary diversity questionnaire developed by Food and Agricultural Organization’s (FAO) Food and Nutrition technical Assistance (FANTA) II project, recommended for cross-country use with adaptations was used for data collection. Trained data collectors met pregnant mothers at field ante-natal clinic and questioned on last 24hr dietary recall with portion size and coded food items to identify the diversity. Pregnant mothers were identified from randomly selected 21 clusters of public health midwife areas. 81.5% mothers (n=627) in the sample had been registered at Public Health Midwife (PHM) before 8 weeks of gestation. 24.4% of mothers were with low starting BMI and 22.7% mothers were with high starting BMI. 47.6% (n=388) mothers had abstained from at least one food item during the pregnancy. The food group with the highest consumption was rice (98.4%) followed by sugar (89.9%). 76.1% mothers had consumed milk, 73% consumed fish and sea foods. Consumption of green leaves was 52% and Vit A rich foods consumed only by 49% mothers. Animal organs, flesh meat and egg all showed low prevalence as 4.7%, 21.6% and 20% respectively. Consumption of locally grown roots, nut, legumes all showed very low prevalence. Consumption of 6 or more food groups was considered as good dietary diversity (DD), 4 to 5 food groups as moderate diversity and 3 or less food groups as poor diversity by FAO FANTA II project. 42.1% mothers demonstrated good DD while another 42.1% recorded moderate diversity. Working mothers showed better DD (51.6%, n=82/159) compared to housewives in the sample (chi = 10.656a,. df=2, p=0.005). The good DD showed gradual improvement from 43.1% to 55.5% along the poorest to richest wealth index (Chi=48.045, df=8 and p=0.000). DD showed significant association with the ethnicity and Moors showed the lowest DD. DD showed no association with the home gardening even though where better diversity expected among those who have home gardening (p=0.548). Sri Lanka is a country where many food items can be grown in the garden and semi-urban setting have adequate space for gardening. Many Sri Lankan mothers do not add homegrown items in their meal. At the same time, their consumption of animal food shows low prevalence. The DD of most of the mothers being either moderate or low (58%) may result from inadequate micro nutrient intake during pregnancy. It is recommended that adding green leaves, locally grown vegetables, roots, nuts and legumes can help increasing the DD of Sri Lankan mothers at low cost.

Keywords: dietary diversity, pregnant mothers, micro-nutrient, food groups

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Authors: Arif İsmailov, Naila Hasanova, Gunay Orujalieva

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Homocysteine (HCY) is an indicator of prognostic value in monitoring regenerative processes in osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures. The osteoporosis is known to be a serious health and economic problem, especially for women in the postmenopausal period. The study was carried out on patients 45-83 years old divided into 3 groups: group I – 14 patients with osteoporosis , group II – 15 patients with non-osteoporotic fractures, group III – 25 patients with osteoporotic fractures. The control group consisted of practically healthy 14 people. A blood sample was taken at 3 stages to monitor the dynamics of HCY level: on the 1st day before treatment, on the 10th day of treatment and 1 month after it. Blood levels of Hcy were determined at a wavelength of 450 nm by the ELİSA(Cloud Clone Corp.Elisa kits,USA). The statistical evaluation was performed by using SPSS 26.0 program (IBM SPSS Inc., USA).The results showed that on the 1st day before the treatment HCY concentration was statistically increased 2.7 times(PU = 0.108) in group I, 5.6 times (PU <0.001) in group II and 6.5 times (PU <0.001) in group III compared to the control group. Thus, the average value of HCY in group I was 1.76 ± 0.56 μg/ml; in group II – 3.57 ± 0.62 μg/ml; in group III – 4.2 ± 0.50 μg/ml. HCY level increases more sharply after fractures,especially in osteoporotic patients. In treatment period Vitamin D plays an important role in synthesis of the Cystathionine β‐synthase enzyme, which regulates HCY metabolism. Increased Hcy levels could lead to an increase in the risk of fracture through the interference in collagen cross-linking.

Keywords: homocysteine, osteoporosis, osteoporotic fractures, Vitamin D

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Authors: Shumaila Shakoor

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The levels of metal pollution (Pb, Cd, Cu, Zn) were investigated in the leaves of Dalbergia sisso in urban areas of the Sahiwal and Faisalabad City. For this purpose, three habitats were selected for sampling (roads, residential areas and parks). High concentration of metal was found in roadside samples as compared to residential areas and parks. In Sahiwal city the mean concentration of Copper (7.68µgg-¹) Zinc (43.55µgg-¹) and lead (4.79µgg-¹) were detected. Similarly, concentration of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd in leaves of Faisalabad city ranged from 14.4-11.3µgg-¹, 49.7-49.5µgg-¹,138.7-47.1µgg-¹. Highest concentration of heavy metals was detected in Faisalabad as compared to Sahiwal city and level of heavy metals was below the threshold limits, therefore, the concentration of heavy metals was not high in Dalbergia sissoo.

Keywords: cadmium, copper, lead, zinc

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Authors: Pawel Twardowski, Tadeusz Chwalczuk, Szymon Wojciechowski

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Inconel 718 is a material characterized by the unique mechanical properties, high temperature strength, high thermal conductivity and the corrosion resistance. However, these features affect the low machinability of this material, which is usually manifested by the intense tool wear and low surface finish. Therefore, this paper is focused on the evaluation of surface roughness during hybrid machining of Inconel 718. The primary aim of the study was to determine the relations between the vibrations generated during hybrid turning and the formed surface roughness. Moreover, the comparison of tested machining techniques in terms of vibrations, tool wear and surface roughness has been made. The conducted tests included the face turning of Inconel 718 with laser assistance in the range of variable cutting speeds. The surface roughness was inspected with the application of stylus profile meter and accelerations of vibrations were measured with the use of three-component piezoelectric accelerometer. The carried out research shows that application of laser assisted machining can contribute to the reduction of surface roughness and cutting vibrations, in comparison to conventional turning. Moreover, the obtained results enable the selection of effective cutting speed allowing the improvement of surface finish and cutting dynamics.

Keywords: hybrid machining, nickel alloys, surface roughness, turning, vibrations

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Authors: Sachin Saxena, Manju Srivastava

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The present study describes a stable, highly sensitive and selective analytical sensor. Fe-BTC was synthesized at room temperature using the noble Iron-trimesate system. The high surface area of as synthesized Fe-BTC proved MOFs as ideal modifiers for glassy carbon electrode. The characterization techniques such as TGA, XRD, FT-IR, BET (BET surface area= 1125 m2/gm) analysis explained the electrocatalytic behaviour of Fe-BTC towards these two drugs. The material formed is cost effective and exhibit higher catalytic behaviour towards analyte systems. The synergism between synthesized Fe-BTC and electroanalytical techniques helped in developing a highly sensitive analytical method for studying the redox fate of ARP and RZ, respectively. Cyclic voltammetry of ferricyanide system proved Fe-BTC/GCE with an increase in 132% enhancement in peak current value as compared to that of GCE. The response characteristics of cyclic voltammetry (CV) and square wave voltammetry (SWV) revealed that the ARP and RZ could be effectively accumulated at Fe-BTC/GCE. On the basis of the electrochemical measurements, electrode dynamics parameters have been evaluated. Present study opens up new field of applications of MOFs modified GCE for drug sensing.

Keywords: MOFs, anti-psychotic, electrochemical sensor, anti-migraine drugs

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Authors: Abdelsalam Gomaa, Mahjabeen Ramzan, Tooba Ali Akbar, Huma Nadeem

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The use of tobacco and the health risks linked to it are well known in this day and age due to the presence of easily available information through the internet. The media is a powerful platform that is used by many anti-smoking awareness campaigns to reach their target audience; yet, it has been found that adolescents are taking up smoking every passing day. Half of this smoking population of youngsters resides in Asia alone, which includes Qatar, the focus country of this study. As smoking happens to be one of the largest avoidable causes of serious diseases like cancers and heart problems, children are taking up smoking at an alarming rate everywhere including Qatar. Importance of the health of the citizens of Qatar is one of the pillars of the Qatar vision 2030, which is to ensure a healthy population, both physically and mentally. Since the youth makes up a significant percentage of the population and in order to achieve the health objectives of the Qatar vision 2030, it is essential to ensure the health and well-being of this part of the population of the country as they are the future of Qatar. Children, especially boys who tend to be more aggressive by nature, are highly likely to develop behavioral and health issues due to smoking at an early age. Research conducted around the world has also emphasized on this association between the smokers developing a bad behaviour as well as poor social communication skills. However, due to lack of research into this association, very little is known about the extent to which smoking impacts the children’s academics, health and behaviour. Moreover, a study of this nature has not yet been conducted in Qatar previously as most of the studies focus on adult smokers and ways to minimize the number of smoking habits in universities and workplaces. This study solely focuses on identifying a relationship between smoking and its impacts on the adolescents by conducting a research on different schools across Qatar.

Keywords: adolescents, modelling techniques, Qatar, smoking

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Authors: Pallavi Roe

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Violent crime is a significant public safety concern in urban areas across the United States, and Washington, DC, is no exception. This research discusses the prevalence and types of crime, particularly violent crime, in Washington, DC, along with the factors contributing to the high rate of violent crime in the city, including poverty, inequality, access to guns, and racial disparities. The organizations working towards ensuring safety in neighborhoods are also listed. The proposal to perform spatial and temporal analysis on violent crime and the use of guns in crime analysis is presented to identify patterns and trends to inform evidence-based interventions to reduce violent crime and improve public safety in Washington, DC. The stakeholders for crime analysis are also discussed, including law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, judges, policymakers, and the public. The anticipated result of the spatial and temporal analysis is to provide stakeholders with valuable information to make informed decisions about preventing and responding to violent crimes.

Keywords: crime analysis, spatial analysis, temporal analysis, violent crime

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Authors: D. T. Chabalala, J. M. Ndambuki, M. F. Ilunga

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Sedimentation includes the processes of erosion, transportation, deposition, and the compaction of sediment. Sedimentation in reservoir results in a decrease in water storage capacity, downstream problems involving aggregation and degradation, blockage of the intake, and change in water quality. A study was conducted in Caledon River catchment in the upstream of Welbedacht Reservoir located in the South Eastern part of Free State province, South Africa. The aim of this research was to investigate and develop a model for an Integrated Catchment Modelling of Sedimentation processes and management for the Welbedacht reservoir. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was applied to determine sources of sediment at different areas of the catchment. The model has been also used to determine the impact of changes from management practice on erosion generation. The results revealed that the main sources of sediment in the watershed are cultivated land (273 ton per hectare), built up and forest (103.3 ton per hectare), and grassland, degraded land, mining and quarry (3.9, 9.8 and 5.3 ton per hectare) respectively. After application of soil conservation practices to developed Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, the results revealed that the total average annual soil loss in the catchment decreased by 76% and sediment yield from cultivated land decreased by 75%, while the built up and forest area decreased by 42% and 99% respectively. Thus, results of this study will be used by government departments in order to develop sustainable policies.

Keywords: Welbedacht reservoir, sedimentation, RUSLE, Caledon River

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Authors: Soroush Mokallaei

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Since ancient times, urbanization engineers have always thought of creating green spaces along with urbanization. Athens and Rome have attempted to construct public gardens around streets and palaces. Since then developing green space has become a part of urban civilization. In medieval ages, all Western cities had palaces and houses with internal gardens. In different sources green belt is defined as a green band of trees and bushes around the cities which has multiple functions. It is said that green belts are not only around the mountains, cities, and rivers but also around houses, subways, and highways. Constructing green belt around cities has different advantages such as: protecting cities against pollution, purifying air, screening dust, being a place for recreation, buffer zone of city internal lands, confronting the phenomenon of heat island, increasing agricultural products, helping to prevent illegal city development, confronting deforestation, preventing flood and increasing subterranean water resources.

Keywords: environment, garden cities, green belt, metropolises

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Authors: Mohammad Saraj Sharifzai, Keisuke Kitagawa, Mohammad Kamil Halimee, Javid Habib, Daishi Sakaguchi

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The purpose of this research is to upgrade a pleasing, sustainable and safe shelter in the Afghan urban community. It also aims to maintain traditional housing, which is fitted to its environment, while attempting to upgrade it with new, traditional standards. The three main objectives of this study are to upgrade the traditional courtyard house to become safe and sustainable today and tomorrow; to fit the contemporary house environmentally and culturally, and to suppress or reduce the broad gap between traditional and contemporary housing. The paper tries to exhibit and analyze the sustainably best practices available in both traditional and contemporary courtyard housing in Afghanistan. For instance, the use of thick walls and Tawa-Khana (floor heating system) shows the best sustainable practice in that context.

Keywords: Afghan Traditional Courtyard Housing (ATCH), Afghan Contemporary Courtyard Housing (ACCH), suitability planning, affordable and thermal comfort

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Authors: Sirilak Kongkaew, Pathumwadee Yodmanee, Nopporn Kaiyawet, Arthitaya Meeprasert, Thanyada Rungrotmongkol, Toshikatsu Kaburaki, Hiroshi Noguchi, Fujio Takeuch, Nawee Kungwan, Supot Hannongbua

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Behçet’s disease (BD) is a genetic autoimmune expressed by multisystemic inflammatory disorder mostly occurred at the skin, joints, gastrointestinal tract, and genitalia, including ocular, oral, genital, and central nervous systems. Most BD patients in Japan and Korea were strongly indicated by the genetic factor namely HLA-B*51 (especially, HLA-B*51:01) marker in HMC class I, while HLA-A*26:01 allele has been detected from the BD patients in Greek, Japan, and Taiwan. To understand the selective binding of the MICA-TM peptide towards the HLAs associated with BD, the molecular dynamics simulations were applied on the four HLA alleles (B*51:01, B*35:01, A*26:01, and A*11:01) in complex with such peptide. As a result, the key residues in the binding groove of HLA protein which play an important role in the MICA-TM peptide binding and stabilization were revealed. The Van der Waals force was found to be the main protein-protein interaction. Based on the binding free energy prediction by MM/PBSA method, the MICA-TM peptide interacted stronger to the HLA alleles associated to BD in the identical class by 7-12 kcal/mol. The obtained results from the present study could help to differentiate the HLA alleles and explain a source of Behçet’s disease.

Keywords: Behçet’s disease, MD simulations, HMC class I, autoimmune

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Authors: Sanele Lionel Khanyile, Emmanuel Nahayo

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Geomagnetic jerks are jumps observed in the second derivative of the main magnetic field that occurs on annual to decadal timescales. Understanding these jerks is crucial as they provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the Earth’s outer liquid core. In this study, we investigate the occurrence of geomagnetic jerks in geomagnetic observatory data collected at southern African magnetic observatories, Hermanus (HER), Tsumeb (TSU), Hartebeesthoek (HBK) and Keetmanshoop (KMH) between 2017 and 2023. The observatory data was processed and analyzed by retaining quiet night-time data recorded during quiet geomagnetic activities with the help of Kp, Dst, and ring current RC indices. Results confirm the occurrence of the 2019-2020 geomagnetic jerk in the region and identify the recent 2021 jerk detected with V-shaped secular variation changes in X and Z components at all four observatories. The highest estimated 2021 jerk secular acceleration amplitudes in X and Z components were found at HBK, 12.7 nT/year² and 19. 1 nT/year², respectively. Notably, the global CHAOS-7 model aptly identifies this 2021 jerk in the Z component at all magnetic observatories in the region.

Keywords: geomagnetic jerks, secular variation, magnetic observatory data, South Atlantic Anomaly

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Authors: Nour Tawil, Sandra Weber, Kirsten K. Roessler, Martin Mau, Simone Kuhn

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The link between “quality” residential environments and human health and well-being has long been proposed. While the physical properties of a sound environment have been fairly defined, little focus has been given to the psychological impact of architectural elements. Recently, studies have investigated the response to architectural parameters, using measures of physiology, brain activity, and emotion. Results showed different aspects of interest: detailed and open versus blank and closed facades, patterns in perceiving different elements, and a visual bias for capturing faces in buildings. However, in the absence of a consensus on methodologies, the available studies remain unsystematic and face many limitations regarding the underpinning psychological mechanisms. To bridge some of these gaps, an online study was launched to investigate design features that influence the aesthetic judgement and emotional evaluation of house facades, using a well-controlled stimulus set of Canadian houses. A methodical modelling of design features will be performed to extract both high and low level image properties, in addition to segmentation of layout-related features. 300 participants from Canada, Denmark, and Germany will rate the images on twelve psychological dimensions representing appealing aspects of a house. Subjective ratings are expected to correlate with specific architectural elements while controlling for typicality and familiarity, and other individual differences. With the lack of relevant studies, this research aims to identify architectural elements of beneficial qualities that can inform design strategies for optimized residential spaces.

Keywords: architectural elements, emotions, psychological response, residential facades.

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Authors: Sung Duk Kim, Kwan U. Kim, Jin Sim, Ryong Jin Jang

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The phenomenon of seasonal variations in the Earth’s rotation velocity was discovered in the 1930s when a crystal clock was developed and analyzed in a quantitative way for the first time between 1955 and 1968 when observation data of the seasonal variations was analyzed by an atomic clock. According to the previous investigation, atmospheric circulation is supposed to be a factor affecting the seasonal variations in the Earth’s rotation velocity in many cases, but the problem has not been solved yet. In order to solve the problem, it is necessary to apply dynamics to consider the Earth’s spatial motion, rotation, and change of shape of the Earth (movement of materials in and out of the Earth and change of the Earth’s figure) at the same time and in interrelation to the accuracy of post-Newtonian approximation regarding the Earth body as a system of mass points because the stability of the Earth’s rotation angular velocity is in the range of 10⁻⁸~10⁻⁹. For it, the equation was derived, which can consider the 3 kinds of motion above mentioned at the same time by taking the effect of the resultant external force on the Earth’s rotation into account in a relativistic way to the accuracy of post-Newtonian approximation. Therefore, the equation has been solved to obtain the theoretical values of periodic change in the Earth’s rotation velocity, and they have been compared with the astronomical observation data so to reveal the cause for the periodic change in the Earth’s rotation velocity.

Keywords: Earth rotation, moment function, periodic change, seasonal variation, relativistic change

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Aboulkacem El Mehdi

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We develop a theoretical model at the crossroads of labour and urban economics, used for explaining the mechanism through which the duration of home-workplace trips and their monetary costs impact the labour demand and supply in a spatially scattered labour market and how they are impacted by a change in passenger transport infrastructures and services. The spatial disconnection between home and job opportunities is referred to as the spatial mismatch hypothesis (SMH). Its harmful impact on employment has been subject to numerous theoretical propositions. However, all the theoretical models proposed so far are patterned around the American context, which is particular as it is marked by racial discrimination against blacks in the housing and the labour markets. Therefore, it is only natural that most of these models are developed in order to reproduce a steady state characterized by agents carrying out their economic activities in a mono-centric city in which most unskilled jobs being created in the suburbs, far from the Blacks who dwell in the city-centre, generating a high unemployment rates for blacks, while the White population resides in the suburbs and has a low unemployment rate. Our model doesn't rely on any racial discrimination and doesn't aim at reproducing a steady state in which these stylized facts are replicated; it takes the main principle of the SMH -the spatial disconnection between homes and workplaces- as a starting point. One of the innovative aspects of the model consists in dealing with a SMH related issue at an aggregate level. We link the parameters of the passengers transport system to employment in the whole area of a city. We consider here a city that consists of four areas: two of them are residential areas with unemployed workers, the other two host firms looking for labour force. The workers compare the indirect utility of working in each area with the utility of unemployment and choose between submitting an application for the job that generate the highest indirect utility or not submitting. This arbitration takes account of the monetary and the time expenditures generated by the trips between the residency areas and the working areas. Each of these expenditures is clearly and explicitly formulated so that the impact of each of them can be studied separately than the impact of the other. The first findings show that the unemployed workers living in an area benefiting from good transport infrastructures and services have a better chance to prefer activity to unemployment and are more likely to supply a higher 'quantity' of labour than those who live in an area where the transport infrastructures and services are poorer. We also show that the firms located in the most accessible area receive much more applications and are more likely to hire the workers who provide the highest quantity of labour than the firms located in the less accessible area. Currently, we are working on the matching process between firms and job seekers and on how the equilibrium between the labour demand and supply occurs.

Keywords: labour market, passenger transport infrastructure, spatial mismatch hypothesis, urban economics

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Authors: Yike Lamu, Jieyu Tang, Jialin Wu, Jianyun Huang

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With the development of economy and science and technology, the urban heat island effect becomes more and more serious. Taking Beijing city as an example, this paper divides the value of each influence index of heat island intensity and establishes a mathematical model – neural network system based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of heat island effect. After data preprocessing, the algorithm of weight of each factor affecting heat island effect is generated, and the data of sex indexes affecting heat island intensity of Shenyang City and Shanghai City, Beijing, and Hangzhou City are input, and the result is automatically output by the neural network system. It is of practical significance to show the intensity of heat island effect by visual method, which is simple, intuitive and can be dynamically monitored.

Keywords: heat island effect, neural network, comprehensive evaluation, visualization

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Authors: Sahar Elkaee Behjati

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Air pollution, particularly with dust, is one of the biggest issues Tehran is dealing with, and the city's green space which consists of trees has a critical role in absorption of it. The question this study aimed to investigate was which tree species the highest uptake capacity of the dust and carbon have suspended in the air. On this basis, 30 samples of trees from two different districts in Tehran were collected, and after washing and centrifuging, the samples were oven dried. The results of the study revealed that Ulmus minor had the highest amount of deposited dust in both districts. In addition, it was found that in Chamran district Ailanthus altissima and in Gandi district Ulmus minor has had the highest absorption of deposited carbon. Therefore, it could be argued that decision making on the selection of species for urban green spaces should take the above-mentioned parameters into account.

Keywords: dust, leaves, uptake total carbon, Tehran, tree species

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Authors: Elisabetta Ceretti, Silvia Bonizzoni, Alberto Bonetti, Milena Villarini, Marco Verani, Maria Antonella De Donno, Sara Bonetta, Umberto Gelatti

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Introduction: Air pollution is a global problem. In 2013, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classified air pollution and particulate matter as carcinogenic to human. The study of the health effects of air pollution in children is very important because they are a high-risk group in terms of the health effects of air pollution and early exposure during childhood can increase the risk of developing chronic diseases in adulthood. The MAPEC_LIFE (Monitoring Air Pollution Effects on Children for supporting public health policy) is a project founded by EU Life+ Programme which intends to evaluate the associations between air pollution and early biological effects in children and to propose a model for estimating the global risk of early biological effects due to air pollutants and other factors in children. Methods: The study was carried out on 6-8-year-old children living in five Italian towns in two different seasons. Two biomarkers of early biological effects, primary DNA damage detected with the comet assay and frequency of micronuclei, were investigated in buccal cells of children. Details of children diseases, socio-economic status, exposures to other pollutants and life-style were collected using a questionnaire administered to children’s parents. Child exposure to urban air pollution was assessed by analysing PM0.5 samples collected in the school areas for PAHs and nitro-PAHs concentration, lung toxicity and in vitro genotoxicity on bacterial and human cells. Data on the chemical features of the urban air during the study period were obtained from the Regional Agency for Environmental Protection. The project created also the opportunity to approach the issue of air pollution with the children, trying to raise their awareness on air quality, its health effects and some healthy behaviors by means of an educational intervention in the schools. Results: 1315 children were recruited for the study and participate in the first sampling campaign in the five towns. The second campaign, on the same children, is still ongoing. The preliminary results of the tests on buccal mucosa cells of children will be presented during the conference as well as the preliminary data about the chemical composition and the toxicity and genotoxicity features of PM0.5 samples. The educational package was tested on 250 children of the primary school and showed to be very useful, improving children knowledge about air pollution and its effects and stimulating their interest. Conclusions: The associations between levels of air pollutants, air mutagenicity and biomarkers of early effects will be investigated. A tentative model to calculate the global absolute risk of having early biological effects for air pollution and other variables together will be proposed and may be useful to support policy-making and community interventions to protect children from possible health effects of air pollutants.

Keywords: air pollution exposure, biomarkers of early effects, children, public health policy

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Authors: Karolina Ziembowicz, Andrzej Nowak

Abstract:

In the current study, we examined the consequences of adding prosodic cues to text communication by allowing users to observe the process of message creation while engaged in dyadic conversations. In the first condition, users interacted through a traditional chat that requires pressing ‘enter’ to make a message visible to an interlocutor. In another, text appeared on the screen simultaneously as the sender was writing it, letter after letter (Synchat condition), so that users could observe the varying rhythm of message production, precise timing of message appearance, typos and their corrections. The results show that the ability to observe the dynamics of message production had a twofold effect on the social interaction process. First, it enhanced the relational aspect of communication – interlocutors synchronized their emotional states during the interaction, their communication included more statements on relationship building, and they evaluated the Synchat medium as more personal and emotionally engaging. Second, it increased the coherence of communication, reflected in greater continuity of the topics raised in Synchat conversations. The results are discussed from the interaction design (IxD) perspective.

Keywords: chat communication, online conversation, prosody, social synchronization, interaction incoherence, relationship building

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Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

Abstract:

Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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Authors: Saurabh Kumar

Abstract:

In the fiercely competitive landscape of e-commerce, understanding and mitigating customer churn has become paramount for sustainable business growth. This paper presents a thorough investigation into the application of machine learning techniques for churn prediction in e-commerce, aiming to provide actionable insights for businesses seeking to enhance customer retention strategies. We conduct a comparative study of various machine learning algorithms, including traditional statistical methods and ensemble techniques, leveraging a rich dataset sourced from Kaggle. Through rigorous evaluation, we assess the predictive performance, interpretability, and scalability of each method, elucidating their respective strengths and limitations in capturing the intricate dynamics of customer churn. We identified the XGBoost classifier to be the best performing. Our findings not only offer practical guidelines for selecting suitable modeling approaches but also contribute to the broader understanding of customer behavior in the e-commerce domain. Ultimately, this research equips businesses with the knowledge and tools necessary to proactively identify and address churn, thereby fostering long-term customer relationships and sustaining competitive advantage.

Keywords: customer churn, e-commerce, machine learning techniques, predictive performance, sustainable business growth

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Authors: Maria Ahmadnezhad, Mohammad Reza Soltanpour

Abstract:

Electrohydraulic servo systems have been used in industry in a wide number of applications. Its dynamics ‎are highly nonlinear and also have large extent of model uncertainties and external disturbances. In this ‎thesis, a robust back-stepping control (RBSC) scheme is proposed to overcome the problem of ‎disturbances and system uncertainties effectively and to improve the tracking performance of EHS ‎systems. In order to implement the proposed control scheme, the system uncertainties in EHS systems ‎are considered as total leakage coefficient and effective oil volume. In addition, in order to obtain the ‎virtual controls for stabilizing system, the update rule for the system uncertainty term is induced by the ‎Lyapunov control function (LCF). To verify the performance and robustness of the proposed control ‎system, computer simulation of the proposed control system using Matlab/Simulink Software is ‎executed. From the computer simulation, it was found that the RBSC system produces the desired ‎tracking performance and has robustness to the disturbances and system uncertainties of EHS systems.‎

Keywords: electro hydraulic servo system, back-stepping control, robust back-stepping control, Lyapunov redesign

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Authors: Nina Dasari, Satvik Dasari

Abstract:

Smart city solutions are being developed across the globe to transform urban areas. However, the infrastructure enablement for alerting natural disasters such as floods and wildfires is deficient. This paper discusses an innovative device that could be used as part of the smart city initiative to detect and provide alerts in case of floods at road crossings and wildfires. An Internet of Things (IoT) smart city node was designed, tested, and deployed with collaboration from the City of Austin. The end to end solution includes a 3G enabled IoT device, flood and fire sensors, cloud, a mobile app, and IoT analytics. The real-time data was collected and analyzed using IoT analytics to refine the solution for the past year. The results demonstrate that the proposed solution is reliable and provides accurate results. This low-cost solution is viable, and it can replace the current solution which costs tens of thousands of dollars.

Keywords: analytics, internet of things, natural disasters, smart city

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Authors: A. A. Ahmadi, A. R. Pishevar, M. Nili

Abstract:

As the test gas in a gun tunnel is non-isentropically compressed and heated by a light weight piston. Here, first consideration is the optimum piston weight. Although various aspects of the influence of piston weight on gun tunnel performance have been studied, it is not possible to decide from the existing literature what piston weight is required for optimum performance in various conditions. The technique whereby the piston is rapidly brought to rest at the end of the gun tunnel barrel, and the resulted peak pressure is equal in magnitude to the final equilibrium pressure, is called the equilibrium piston technique. The equilibrium piston technique was developed to estimate the equilibrium piston mass; but this technique cannot give an appropriate estimate for the optimum piston weight. In the present work, a gun tunnel with diameter of 3 in. is described and its performance is investigated numerically to obtain the effect of piston and its weight. Numerical results in the present work are in very good agreement with experimental results. Significant influence of the existence of a piston is shown by comparing the gun tunnel results with results of a conventional shock tunnel in the same dimension and same initial condition. In gun tunnel, an increase of around 250% in running time is gained relative to shock tunnel. Also, Numerical results show that equilibrium piston technique is not a good way to estimate suitable piston weight and there will be a lighter piston which can increase running time of the gun tunnel around 60%.

Keywords: gun tunnel, hypersonic flow, piston, shock tunnel

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