Search results for: risk prediction model

Authors: Magdalena Korytowska, Gunnar Lengstrand, Cecilia Larsson Wexell

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Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women worldwide, and cases are continuing to increase in Sweden. Bone is the most common metastatic site in breast cancer patients, where > 65-75% of women with advanced breast cancer develop bone metastases during their disease. To prevent the skeletal-related events of metastases (e.g., pathological fractures, bone loss, cancer-induced bone pain, and hypercalcemia bone), two different classes of antiresorptive medications (AR), bisphosphonate and denosumab are typically administered every 3 to 4 weeks. Since 2015, adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment has been used every six months for three to five years in postmenopausal women for the prevention of skeletal metastases and improved survival. Methods: A case-control study was conducted to test the hypotheses that patients treated with high-dose AR are at higher risk of developing MRONJ than breast cancer patients with adjuvant bisphosphonate treatment at a lower dose. Medical and odontological data was collected between 2015-2020. Assessment of oral health and dental care before and during oncological treatment took place at the specialist clinic for Orofacial medicine linked to the specific hospital. Results: In total, 220 patients were included, 101 patients in the high-dose group and 119 patients in the adjuvant BP-treatment group. MRONJ was diagnosed in 13 patients (14%) in the high-dose group. The mandible was affected in most of the cases (84.6%), with a mean duration of high-dose treatment of 19.7 months. In 46.2% of cases, no dental cause of MRONJ could be identified. Overall, estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) BC was the most representative type in 172 patients (78.2%). However, this was 83.9% in the high-dose cases group. The most used drug was denosumab. Twenty-five patients (26.9%) switched their medication from ZOL to denosumab during their oncological treatment. Patients with ER+ breast cancer were reported in 88 patients (87.8%) in the adjuvant group that was treated with ZOL. Conclusions: MRONJ was diagnosed only in the high-dose AR group. Dental assessment and care of patients in the adjuvant group should be considered, with a recommendation to potentially prolong ZOL treatment from 3 to 5 years, with concomitant use of hormonal therapy in patients diagnosed with ER+ breast cancer to prevent bone loss induced by oncological treatment. A new referral for dental assessment is very important in the case of bone metastases when treatment with high dose AR will be required since it is associated with a higher risk of MRONJ.

Keywords: antiresorptive therapy, breast cancer, dental care, MRONJ

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Authors: Mwenya Mubanga, Sula Mazimba

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Background: In Zambia, much of the focus on nutrition and health has been on reducing micronutrient deficiencies, wasting and underweight malnutrition and not on the rising global projections of trends in obesity and type 2 diabetes. The aim of this review was to identify and collate studies on the prevalence of obesity, diabetes and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease conducted in Zambia, to summarize their findings and to identify areas that need further research. Methods: The Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System (MEDLINE) database was searched for peer-reviewed articles on the prevalence of, and factors associated with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and diabetes-related cardiovascular disease amongst Zambian residents using a combination of search terms. The period of search was from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2016. We expanded the search terms to include all possible synonyms and spellings obtained in the search strategy. Additionally, we performed a manual search for other articles and references of peer-reviewed articles. Results: In Zambia, the current prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes is estimated at 13%-16% and 2.0 – 3.0% respectively. Risk factors such as the adoption of western dietary habits, the social stigmatization associated with rapid weight loss due to Tuberculosis and/ or the human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and rapid urbanization have all been blamed for fueling the increased risk of obesity and type 2 diabetes. However, unlike traditional Western populations, those with no formal education were less likely to be obese than those who attained secondary or tertiary level education. Approximately 30% of those surveyed were unaware of their diabetes diagnosis and more than 60% were not on treatment despite a known diabetic status. Socio-demographic factors such as older age, female sex, urban dwelling, lack of tobacco use and marital status were associated with an increased risk of obesity, impaired glucose tolerance and type 2 diabetes. We were unable to identify studies that specifically looked at diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. Conclusion: Although the prevalence of Obesity and Type 2 diabetes in Zambia appears low, more representative studies focusing on parts of the country outside of the main industrial zone need to be conducted. There also needs to be research on diabetes-related cardiovascular disease. National surveillance, monitoring and evaluation on all non-communicable diseases need to be prioritized and policies that address underweight, obesity and type 2 diabetes developed.

Keywords: type 2 diabetes, Zambia, obesity, cardiovascular disease

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Authors: Bruno Gontijo Batista

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This paper analyzes how the Socially Aware Design (SAwD) and the Value-oriented and Culturally Informed Approach (VCIA) design model can be used to develop an edutainment game for children with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). The SAwD approach seeks a design that considers new dimensions in human-computer interaction, such as culture, aesthetics, emotional and social aspects of the user's everyday experience. From this perspective, the game development was VCIA model-based, including the users in the design process through participatory methodologies, considering their behavioral patterns, culture, and values. This is because values, beliefs, and behavioral patterns influence how technology is understood and used and the way it impacts people's lives. This model can be applied at different stages of design, which goes from explaining the problem and organizing the requirements to the evaluation of the prototype and the final solution. Thus, this paper aims to understand how this model can be used in the development of an edutainment game for children with ADHD. In the area of education and learning, children with ADHD have difficulties both in behavior and in school performance, as they are easily distracted, which is reflected both in classes and on tests. Therefore, they must perform tasks that are exciting or interesting for them, once the pleasure center in the brain is activated, it reinforces the center of attention, leaving the child more relaxed and focused. In this context, serious games have been used as part of the treatment of ADHD in children aiming to improve focus and attention, stimulate concentration, as well as be a tool for improving learning in areas such as math and reading, combining education and entertainment (edutainment). Thereby, as a result of the research, it was developed, in a participatory way, applying the VCIA model, an edutainment game prototype, for a mobile platform, for children between 8 and 12 years old.

Keywords: ADHD, edutainment, SAwD, VCIA

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Authors: Ahmad Tijani Surajudeen, Muhammad Zahiri Awang Mat, Aliy Abdulwahid Adebisi

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With arrival of Islam in the South-Western Nigeria in the late fifteenth and early sixteenth centuries, various masājid established in different parts of the area played vital roles towards the betterment and unity of the Muslims. However, despite the fact that the masājid in the South-Western part of Nigeria contributed immensely to the spiritual and educational enhancement of the Muslims, it has not fully captured the holistic educational roles as a unique model used by the Prophet (S.A.W). Therefore, the primary objective of this paper is to investigate and broaden the roles of masjid towards its compartmentalized and holistic contributions among the Muslims in the south-western Nigeria. The findings from the paper have identified five holistic roles of masjid, namely, spiritual, intellectual, physical, social and emotional contributions which have been exemplified in the prophetic model of masjid. The paper has argued that the five factors must be unreservedly unified towards the betterment of the Muslims and enhancement of Islamic education and Arabic Language in the South-Western Nigeria. However, the challenges of masjid management in the South-Western Nigeria are the main hindrance in achieving the holistic roles of masjid. It is thereby suggested that, the management of masjid should take the identified prophetic model of masjid into account in order to positively improve the affairs of Muslims as well as promoting the teaching and learning of Islamic education and Arabic language among the Muslims in the South-Western Nigeria.

Keywords: worship, Islamic education, Arabic language, prophetic holistic model

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Authors: Jean Marie Ntaganda, Froduald Minani, Wellars Banzi, Lydie Mpinganzima, Japhet Niyobuhungiro, Jean Bosco Gahutu, Vincent Dusabejambo, Immaculate Kambutse

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In this paper, we present a nonlinear dynamic model for the interactive mechanism of the cardiovascular and respiratory system. The model is designed and analyzed for human during physical exercises. In order to verify the adequacy of the designed model, data collected in Rwanda are used for validation. We have simulated the impact of heart rate and alveolar ventilation as controls of cardiovascular and respiratory system respectively to steady state response of the main cardiovascular hemodynamic quantities i.e., systemic arterial and venous blood pressures, arterial oxygen partial pressure and arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure, to the stabilised values of controls. We used data collected in Rwanda for both male and female during physical activities. We obtained a good agreement with physiological data in the literature. The model may represent an important tool to improve the understanding of exercise physiology.

Keywords: exercise, cardiovascular/respiratory, hemodynamic quantities, numerical simulation, physical activity, sportsmen in Rwanda, system

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Authors: Mesfin Nigussie

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The objectives of the study were to identify factors affecting rural households’ willingness to install biogas plant and amount willingness to pay in order to examine determinants of effective demand for biogas technology. A multistage sampling technique was employed to select 120 respondents for the study. The binary probit regression model was employed to identify factors affecting rural households’ decision to install biogas technology. The probit model result revealed that household size, total household income, access to extension services related to biogas, access to credit service, proximity to water sources, perception of households about the quality of biogas, perception index about attributes of biogas, perception of households about installation cost of biogas and availability of energy source were statistically significant in determining household’s decision to install biogas. Tobit model was employed to examine determinants of rural household’s amount of willingness to pay. Based on the model result, age of the household head, total annual income of the household, access to extension service and availability of other energy source were significant variables that influence willingness to pay. Providing due considerations for extension services, availability of credit or subsidy, improving the quality of biogas technology design and minimizing cost of installation by using locally available materials are the main suggestions of this research that help to create effective demand for biogas technology.

Keywords: biogas technology, effective demand, probit model, tobit model, willingnes to pay

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Ostad Ali Naghi Kashani, Esfanji Elia

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Nowadays, the amounts of companies which tend to have an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) application are increasing particularly in developing countries like Iran. ERP projects are expensive, time consuming, and complex, in addition the failure rate is high among these projects. It is important to know whether these projects could meet their goals or not. Furthermore, the area which should be improved should be identified. In this paper we made a framework to evaluate ERP projects success implementation. First, based on literature review we made a framework based on BSC model, financial, customer, processes, learning and knowledge, because of the importance of change management it was added to model. Then an organization was divided in three layers. We choose corporate, managerial, and operational levels. Then to find criteria to assess each aspect, we use Delphi method in two rounds. And for the second round we made a questionnaire and did some statistical tasks on them. Based on the statistical results some of them are accepted and others are rejected.

Keywords: ERP, BSC, ERP project evaluation, IT projects

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Authors: E. Accomando, L. Delle Rose, S. Moretti, E. Olaiya, C. Shepherd-Themistocleous

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Heavy sterile neutrinos are almost ubiquitous in the class of Beyond Standard Model scenarios aimed at addressing the puzzle that emerged from the discovery of neutrino flavour oscillations, hence the need to explain their masses. In particular, they are necessary in a U(1)’ enlarged Standard Model (SM). We show that these heavy neutrinos can be rather long-lived producing distinctive displaced vertices and tracks. Indeed, depending on the actual decay length, they can decay inside a Large Hadron Collider (LHC) detector far from the main interaction point and can be identified in the inner tracking system or the muon chambers, emulated here through the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) detector parameters. Among the possible production modes of such heavy neutrino, we focus on their pair production mechanism in the SM Higgs decay, eventually yielding displaced lepton signatures following the heavy neutrino decays into weak gauge bosons. By employing well-established triggers available for the CMS detector and using the data collected by the end of the LHC Run 2, these signatures would prove to be accessible with negligibly small background. Finally, we highlight the importance that the exploitation of new triggers, specifically, displaced tri-lepton ones, could have for this displaced vertex search.

Keywords: beyond the standard model, displaced vertex, Higgs physics, neutrino physics

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Authors: Aly Elshafei, Daniela Romano

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With the development of autonomous vehicles, a human-machine interaction (HMI) system is needed for a safe transition of control when a takeover request (TOR) is required. An important part of the HMI system is the ability to monitor the level of situational awareness (SA) of any driver in real-time, in different scenarios, and without any pre-calibration. Presenting state-of-the-art machine learning models used to measure SA is the purpose of this systematic review. Investigating the limitations of each type of sensor, the gaps, and the most suited sensor and computational model that can be used in driving applications. To the author’s best knowledge this is the first literature review identifying online and offline classification methods used to measure SA, explaining which measurements are subject or session-specific, and how many classifications can be done with each classification model. This information can be very useful for researchers measuring SA to identify the most suited model to measure SA for different applications.

Keywords: situational awareness, autonomous driving, gaze metrics, EEG, ECG

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Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: D. Bianco, A. Sollazzo, M. Barbarino, G. Elia, A. Smoraldi, N. Favaloro

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The activities, described in the present paper, have been conducted in the framework of the HYPROB-New Program, carried out by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA) promoted and funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research (MIUR) in order to improve the National background on rocket engine systems for space applications. The Program has the strategic objective to improve National system and technology capabilities in the field of liquid rocket engines (LRE) for future Space Propulsion Systems applications, with specific regard to LOX/LCH4 technology. The main purpose of the HYPROB program is to design and build a Propulsion Test Facility (HIMP) allowing test activities on Liquid Thrusters. The development of skills in liquid rocket propulsion can only pass through extensive test campaign. Following its mission, CIRA has planned the development of new testing facilities and infrastructures for space propulsion characterized by adequate sizes and instrumentation. The IMP test cell is devoted to testing articles representative of small combustion chambers, fed with oxygen and methane, both in liquid and gaseous phase. This article describes the activities that have been carried out for the evaluation of the acoustic impact, and its consequent mitigation. The impact of the simulated acoustic disturbance has been evaluated, first, using an approximated method based on experimental data by Baumann and Coney, included in “Noise and Vibration Control Engineering” edited by Vér and Beranek. This methodology, used to evaluate the free-field radiation of jet in ideal acoustical medium, analyzes in details the jet noise and assumes sources acting at the same time. It considers as principal radiation sources the jet mixing noise, caused by the turbulent mixing of jet gas and the ambient medium. Empirical models, allowing a direct calculation of the Sound Pressure Level, are commonly used for rocket noise simulation. The model named after K. Eldred is probably one of the most exploited in this area. In this paper, an improvement of the Eldred Standard model has been used for a detailed investigation of the acoustical impact of the Hyprob facility. This new formulation contains an explicit expression for the acoustic pressure of each equivalent noise source, in terms of amplitude and phase, allowing the investigation of the sources correlation effects and their propagation through wave equations. In order to enhance the evaluation of the facility acoustic impact, including an assessment of the mitigation strategies to be set in place, a more advanced simulation campaign has been conducted using both an in-house code for noise propagation and scattering, and a commercial code for industrial noise environmental impact, CadnaA. The noise prediction obtained with the revised Eldred-based model has then been used for formulating an empirical/BEM (Boundary Element Method) hybrid approach allowing the evaluation of the barrier mitigation effect, at the design. This approach has been compared with the analogous empirical/ray-acoustics approach, implemented within CadnaA using a customized definition of sources and directivity factor. The resulting impact evaluation study is reported here, along with the design-level barrier optimization for noise mitigation.

Keywords: acoustic impact, industrial noise, mitigation, rocket noise

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Authors: D. Ramajo, S. Corzo, M. Nigro

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A Multi-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) two-phase model was developed with the aim to simulate the in-core coolant circuit of a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) of a commercial nuclear power plant (NPP). Due to the fact that this PHWR is a Reactor Pressure Vessel type (RPV), three-dimensional (3D) detailed modelling of the large reservoirs of the RPV (the upper and lower plenums and the downcomer) were coupled with an in-house finite volume one-dimensional (1D) code in order to model the 451 coolant channels housing the nuclear fuel. Regarding the 1D code, suitable empirical correlations for taking into account the in-channel distributed (friction losses) and concentrated (spacer grids, inlet and outlet throttles) pressure losses were used. A local power distribution at each one of the coolant channels was also taken into account. The heat transfer between the coolant and the surrounding moderator was accurately calculated using a two-dimensional theoretical model. The implementation of subcooled boiling and condensation models in the 1D code along with the use of functions for representing the thermal and dynamic properties of the coolant and moderator (heavy water) allow to have estimations of the in-core steam generation under nominal flow conditions for a generic fission power distribution. The in-core mass flow distribution results for steady state nominal conditions are in agreement with the expected from design, thus getting a first assessment of the coupled 1/3D model. Results for nominal condition were compared with those obtained with a previous 1/3D single-phase model getting more realistic temperature patterns, also allowing visualize low values of void fraction inside the upper plenum. It must be mentioned that the current results were obtained by imposing prescribed fission power functions from literature. Therefore, results are showed with the aim of point out the potentiality of the developed model.

Keywords: PHWR, CFD, thermo-hydraulic, two-phase flow

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Authors: Mojtaba Aghajari, Alireza Aghasi

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The first challenge which the current research faced has been the identification or determination of the level of knowledge in Isfahan public transportation corporation, and the second challenge has been the recognition and choice of a proper approach for the instructional system design. Responding these two challenges will present an appropriate model of instructional system design. In order to respond the first challenge or question, Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model has been utilized due to its universality among the 26 models proposed so far. The statistical population of this research included 2200 people, among which 200 persons were chosen as the sample of the research by the use of Morgan’s method. The data gathering has been carried out by the means of a questionnaire based on Nonaka and Takeuchi KM model, analysis of which has been done by SPSS program. The output of this questionnaire, yielding the point of 1.96 (out of 5 points), revealed that the general condition of Isfahan public transportation corporation is weak concerning its being knowledge-centered. After placing this output on Jonassen’s continuum, it was revealed that the appropriate approach for instructional system design is the system (or behavioral) approach. Accordingly, different steps of the general model of ADDIE, which covers all of the ISO10015 standards, were adopted in the act of designing. Such process in Isfahan public transportation corporation was designed and divided into three main steps, including: instructional designing and planning, instructional course planning, determination of the evaluation and the effectiveness of the instructional courses.

Keywords: instructional system design, system approach, knowledge management, employees

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Authors: M. Palizvan, M. T. Abadi, M. H. Sadr

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Due to variations in damage mechanisms in the microscale, the behavior of fiber-reinforced composites is nonlinear and difficult to model. To make use of computational advantages, homogenization method is applied to the micro-scale model in order to minimize the cost at the expense of detail of local microscale phenomena. In this paper, the effective stiffness is calculated using the homogenization of nonlinear behavior of a composite representative volume element (RVE) containing fiber-matrix debonding. The damage modes for the RVE are considered by using cohesive elements and contacts for the cohesive behavior of the interface between fiber and matrix. To predict more realistic responses of composite materials, different random distributions of fibers are proposed besides square and hexagonal arrays. It was shown that in some cases, there is quite different damage behavior in different fiber distributions. A comprehensive comparison has been made between different graphs.

Keywords: homogenization, cohesive zone model, fiber-matrix debonding, RVE

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Authors: S. Yaman, S. Rostami

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In this study, a black box modeling of the coupled-tank system is obtained by using fuzzy sets. The derived model is tested via adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). In order to achieve a better control performance, the parameters of three different controller types, classical proportional integral controller (PID), fuzzy PID and function tuner method, are tuned by one of the evolutionary computation method, genetic algorithm. All tuned controllers are applied to the fuzzy model of the coupled-tank experimental setup and analyzed under the different reference input values. According to the results, it is seen that function tuner method demonstrates better robust control performance and guarantees the closed loop stability.

Keywords: function tuner method (FTM), fuzzy modeling, fuzzy PID controller, genetic algorithm (GA)

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Authors: Neeti Nayak, Khalid Duri

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Despite the many advances made in transportation planning, the number of injuries and fatalities in the United States which involve motorized vehicles near intersections remain largely unchanged year over year. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for 2018 indicates accidents involving motorized vehicles at traffic intersections accounted for 8,245 deaths and 914,811 injuries. Furthermore, collisions involving pedal cyclists killed 861 people (38% at intersections) and injured 46,295 (68% at intersections), while accidents involving pedestrians claimed 6,247 lives (25% at intersections) and injured 71,887 (56% at intersections)- the highest tallies registered in nearly 20 years. Some of the causes attributed to the rising number of accidents relate to increasing populations and the associated changes in land and traffic usage patterns, insufficient visibility conditions, and inadequate applications of traffic controls. Intersections that were initially designed with a particular land use pattern in mind may be rendered obsolete by subsequent developments. Many accidents involving pedestrians are accounted for by locations which should have been designed for safe crosswalks. Conventional solutions for evaluating intersection safety often require costly deployment of engineering surveys and analysis, which limit the capacity of resource-constrained administrations to satisfy their community’s needs for safe roadways adequately, effectively relegating mitigation efforts for high-risk areas to post-incident responses. This paper demonstrates how geospatial technology can identify high-risk locations and evaluate the viability of specific intersection management techniques. GIS is used to simulate relevant real-world conditions- the presence of traffic controls, zoning records, locations of interest for human activity, design speed of roadways, topographic details and immovable structures. The proposed methodology provides a low-cost mechanism for empowering urban planners to reduce the risks of accidents using 2-dimensional data representing multi-modal street networks, parcels, crosswalks and demographic information alongside 3-dimensional models of buildings, elevation, slope and aspect surfaces to evaluate visibility and lighting conditions and estimate probabilities for jaywalking and risks posed by blind or uncontrolled intersections. The proposed tools were developed using sample areas of Southern California, but the model will scale to other cities which conform to similar transportation standards given the availability of relevant GIS data.

Keywords: crosswalks, cyclist safety, geotechnology, GIS, intersection safety, pedestrian safety, roadway safety, transportation planning, urban design

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Authors: Laaziz El Hassan

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The Service Network Design Problem (SNDP) is a tactical issue in freight transportation firms. The existing formulations of the problem for intermodal rail-road transportation were not always adapted to the intermodality in terms of full asset utilization and modal shift reinforcement. The objective of the article is to propose a model having a more compliant formulation with intermodality, including constraints highlighting the imperatives of asset management, reinforcing modal shift from road to rail and reducing, by the way, road mode CO2 emissions. The model is a fixed charged, path based integer nonlinear program. Its objective is to minimize services total cost while ensuring full assets utilization to satisfy freight demand forecast. The model's main feature is that it gives as output both the train sizes and the services frequencies for a planning period. We solved the program using a commercial solver and discussed the numerical results.

Keywords: intermodal transport network, service network design, model, nonlinear integer program, path-based, service frequencies, modal shift

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Authors: Sara Mosallanejad, Bogdan Z. Dlugogorski, Jeff Gore, Mohammednoor Altarawneh

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Ammonium nitrate (NH­₄NO₃, AN) is commonly used as the main component of AN emulsion and fuel oil (ANFO) explosives, that use extensively in civilian and mining operations for underground development and tunneling applications. The emulsion formulation and wettability of AN prills, which affect the physical stability and detonation of ANFO, highly depend on the surface tension, density, viscosity of the used liquid. Therefore, for engineering applications of this material, the determination of density and surface tension of concentrated aqueous solutions of AN is essential. The molecular dynamics (MD) simulation method have been used to investigate the density and the surface tension of high concentrated ammonium nitrate solutions; up to its solubility limit in water. Non-polarisable models for water and ions have carried out the simulations, and the electronic continuum correction model (ECC) uses a scaling of the charges of the ions to apply the polarisation implicitly into the non-polarisable model. The results of calculated density and the surface tension of the solutions have been compared to available experimental values. Our MD simulations show that the non-polarisable model with full-charge ions overestimates the experimental results while the reduce-charge model for the ions fits very well with the experimental data. Ions in the solutions show repulsion from the interface using the non-polarisable force fields. However, when charges of the ions in the original model are scaled in line with the scaling factor of the ECC model, the ions create a double ionic layer near the interface by the migration of anions toward the interface while cations stay in the bulk of the solutions. Similar ions orientations near the interface were observed when polarisable models were used in simulations. In conclusion, applying the ECC model to the non-polarisable force field yields the density and surface tension of the AN solutions with high accuracy in comparison to the experimental measurements.

Keywords: ammonium nitrate, electronic continuum correction, non-polarisable force field, surface tension

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Authors: T. Al-Alawi, N. Shorbaji, E. Rashaidi, M.Alidrisi

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Purpose/Objective(s): The main purpose of this study is to analyze the planning of SBRT treatments for localized prostate cancer with 6FFF and 10FFF energies to see if there is a dosimetric difference between the two energies and how we can increase the plan efficiency and reduce its complexity. Also, to introduce a planning method in our department to treat prostate cancer by utilizing high energy photons without increasing patient toxicity and fulfilled all dosimetric constraints for OAR (an organ at risk). Then toevaluate the target 95% coverage PTV95, V5%, V2%, V1%, low dose volume for OAR (V1Gy, V2Gy, V5Gy), monitor unit (beam-on time), and estimate the values of homogeneity index HI, conformity index CI a Gradient index GI for each treatment plan.Materials/Methods: Two treatment plans were generated for15 patients with localized prostate cancer retrospectively using the CT planning image acquired for radiotherapy purposes. Each plan contains two/three complete arcs with two/three different collimator angle sets. The maximum dose rate available is 1400MU/min for the energy 6FFF and 2400MU/min for 10FFF. So in case, we need to avoid changing the gantry speed during the rotation, we tend to use the third arc in the plan with 6FFF to accommodate the high dose per fraction. The clinical target volume (CTV) consists of the entire prostate for organ-confined disease. The planning target volume (PTV) involves a margin of 5 mm. A 3-mm margin is favored posteriorly. Organs at risk identified and contoured include the rectum, bladder, penile bulb, femoral heads, and small bowel. The prescription dose is to deliver 35Gyin five fractions to the PTV and apply constraints for organ at risk (OAR) derived from those reported in references. Results: In terms of CI=0.99, HI=0.7, and GI= 4.1, it was observed that they are all thesame for both energies 6FFF and 10FFF with no differences, but the total delivered MUs are much less for the 10FFF plans (2907 for 6FFF vs.2468 for 10FFF) and the total delivery time is 124Sc for 6FFF vs. 61Sc for 10FFF beams. There were no dosimetric differences between 6FFF and 10FFF in terms of PTV coverage and mean doses; the mean doses for the bladder, rectum, femoral heads, penile bulb, and small bowel were collected, and they were in favor of the 10FFF. Also, we got lower V1Gy, V2Gy, and V5Gy doses for all OAR with 10FFF plans. Integral dosesID in (Gy. L) were recorded for all OAR, and they were lower with the 10FFF plans. Conclusion: High energy 10FFF has lower treatment time and lower delivered MUs; also, 10FFF showed lower integral and meant doses to organs at risk. In this study, we suggest usinga 10FFF beam for SBRTprostate treatment, which has the advantage of lowering the treatment time and that lead to lessplan complexity with respect to 6FFF beams.

Keywords: FFF beam, SBRT prostate, VMAT, prostate cancer

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Authors: Rômulo Eustáquio Martins de Souza, Paulo Alexandre Rodrigues de Vasconcelos Figueiredo

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In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in applying artificial intelligence techniques, particularly machine learning algorithms. Machine learning is a data-analysis technique that automates the creation of analytical models, making it especially useful for designing complex situations. As a result, this technology aids in reducing human intervention while producing accurate results. This methodology is also extensively used in aerospace engineering since this is a field that encompasses several high-complexity operations, such as rocket propulsion. Rocket propulsion is a high-risk operation in which engine failure could result in the loss of life. As a result, it is critical to use computational methods capable of precisely representing the spacecraft's analytical model to guarantee its security and operation. Thus, this paper describes the use of machine learning algorithms for rocket propulsion to aid the realization that this technique is an efficient way to deal with challenging and restrictive aerospace engineering activities. The paper focuses on three machine-learning-aided rocket propulsion applications: set-point control of an expander-bleed rocket engine, supersonic retro-propulsion of a small-scale rocket, and leak detection and isolation on rocket engine data. This paper describes the data-driven methods used for each implementation in depth and presents the obtained results.

Keywords: data analysis, modeling, machine learning, aerospace, rocket propulsion

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Marjan Javanmard

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The rheological properties of dairy products critically depend on the underlying organisation of proteins at multiple length scales. When heated and acidified, milk proteins form particle gel that is viscoelastic, solvent rich, ‘soft’ material. In this work recent developments on the rheology of soft particles suspensions were used to interpret and potentially define the properties of dairy gel structures. It is discovered that at volume fractions below random close packing (RCP), the Maron-Pierce-Quemada (MPQ) model accurately predicts the viscosity of the dairy gel suspensions without fitting parameters; the MPQ model has been shown previously to provide reasonable predictions of the viscosity of hard sphere suspensions from the volume fraction, solvent viscosity and RCP. This surprising finding demonstrates that up to RCP, the dairy gel system behaves as a hard sphere suspension and that the structural aggregates behave as discrete particulates akin to what is observed for microgel suspensions. At effective phase volumes well above RCP, the system is a soft solid. In this region, it is discovered that the storage modulus of the sheared AMG scales with the storage modulus of the set gel. The storage modulus in this regime is reasonably well described as a function of effective phase volume by the Evans and Lips model. Findings of this work has potential to aid in rational design and control of dairy food structure-properties.

Keywords: dairy suspensions, rheology-structure, Maron-Pierce-Quemada Model, Evans and Lips Model

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Authors: Khandoker Akib Mohammad

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While analyzing time-to-event data, it is possible that a certain fraction of subjects will never experience the event of interest, and they are said to be cured. When this feature of survival models is taken into account, the models are commonly referred to as cure models. In the presence of covariates, the conditional survival function of the population can be modelled by using the cure model, which depends on the probability of being uncured (incidence) and the conditional survival function of the uncured subjects (latency), and a combination of logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression is used to model the incidence and latency respectively. In this paper, we have shown the asymptotic normality of the profile likelihood estimator via asymptotic expansion of the profile likelihood and obtain the explicit form of the variance estimator with an implicit function in the profile likelihood. We have also shown the efficient score function based on projection theory and the profile likelihood score function are equal. Our contribution in this paper is that we have expressed the efficient information matrix as the variance of the profile likelihood score function. A simulation study suggests that the estimated standard errors from bootstrap samples (SMCURE package) and the profile likelihood score function (our approach) are providing similar and comparable results. The numerical result of our proposed method is also shown by using the melanoma data from SMCURE R-package, and we compare the results with the output obtained from the SMCURE package.

Keywords: Cox PH model, cure model, efficient score function, EM algorithm, implicit function, profile likelihood

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing volume of traffic, lane changing plays a crucial role in traffic flow. Lane changing in traffic depends on several factors including road geometrical design, speed, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, etc. A great deal of research has been carried out regarding these fields. Despite of the other significant factors, the drivers’ behavioral characteristics of lane changing has been emphasized in this paper. This paper has predicted the effective equation based on personal characteristics of lane changing by regression models.

Keywords: effective equation, lane changing, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, regression models

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: F. Sabri, J. Jamali

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In this article, the wrinkling failure of orthotropic composite membranes due to in-plane shear deformation is investigated using nonlinear finite element analyses. A nonlinear post-buckling analysis is performed to show the evolution of shear-induced wrinkles. The method of investigation is based on the post-buckling finite element analysis adopted from commercial FEM code; ANSYS. The resulting wrinkling patterns, their amplitude and their wavelengths under the prescribed loads and boundary conditions were confirmed by experimental results. Our study reveals that wrinkles develop when both the magnitudes and coverage of the minimum principal stresses in the laminated composite laminates are sufficiently large to trigger wrinkling.

Keywords: composite, FEM, membrane, wrinkling

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Authors: Bet El Silisna Lagarense, Agustinus Walansendow

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Manado Waterfront Development (MWD) occurs along the coastline of the city to meet the communities’ various needs and interests. Manado waterfront, with its various kinds of tourist attractions, is being developed to strengthen opportunities for both tourism and other businesses. There are many buildings that are used for trade and business purposes. The spatial distributions of tourism, commercial and residential land uses overlap. Field research at the study site consisted desktop scan, questionnaire-based survey, observation and in-depth interview with key informants and Focus Group Discussion (FGD) identified how MWD was initially planned and designed in the whole process of decision making in terms of resource and environmental management particularly for the waterfront tourism development in the long run. The study developed a clustered-based model for waterfront urban tourism in Manado through evaluation of spatial distribution of tourism uses along the waterfront.

Keywords: clustered-based model, Manado, urban tourism, waterfront

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Mario Gianni, Federico Nardi, Federico Ferri, Filippo Cantucci, Manuel A. Ruiz Garcia, Karthik Pushparaj, Fiora Pirri

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In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue (USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge. Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission. In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.

Keywords: mixed-initiative planning and control, operator control interfaces for rescue robotics, situation awareness, urban search, rescue robotics

Procedia PDF Downloads 353

Authors: Juan C. Domínguez, Belén Del Saz-Orozco, María V. Alonso, Mercedes Oliet, Francisco Rodríguez

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In the present study, the kinetics of thermal degradation of a phenolic and lignin reinforced phenolic foams, and the lignin used as reinforcement were studied and the activation energies of their degradation processes were obtained by a DAEM model. The average values for five heating rates of the mean activation energies obtained were: 99.1, 128.2, and 144.0 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, 109.5, 113.3, and 153.0 kJ.mol-1 for the lignin reinforcement, and 82.1, 106.9, and 124.4 kJ. mol-1 for the lignin reinforced phenolic foam. The standard deviation ranges calculated for each sample were 1.27-8.85, 2.22-12.82, and 3.17-8.11 kJ.mol-1 for the phenolic foam, lignin and the reinforced foam, respectively. The DAEM model showed low mean square errors (< 1x10-5), proving that is a suitable model to study the kinetics of thermal degradation of the foams and the reinforcement.

Keywords: kinetics, lignin, phenolic foam, thermal degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 474

Authors: Dalia El Hadi, Alaa Bou Ghannam, Hala Mostafa, Hana Mansour, Ibrahim Hashim, Soubhi Tahhan, Tharwat El Zahran

Abstract:

Introduction: Neuro-ophthalmological emergencies require prompt assessment and management to avoid vision or life-threatening sequelae. Some would require neuroimaging. Most commonly used are the CT and MRI of the Brain. They can be over-used when not indicated. Their yield remains dependent on multiple factors relating to the clinical scenario. Methods: A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted by reviewing the electronic medical records of patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) with isolated neuro-ophthalmologic complaints. For each patient, data were collected on the clinical presentation, whether neuroimaging was performed (and which type), and the result of neuroimaging. Analysis of the performed neuroimaging was made, and its yield was determined. Results: A total of 211 patients were reviewed. The complaints or symptoms at presentation were: blurry vision, change in the visual field, transient vision loss, floaters, double vision, eye pain, eyelid droop, headache, dizziness and others such as nausea or vomiting. In the ED, a total of 126 neuroimaging procedures were performed. Ninety-four imagings (74.6%) were normal, while 32 (25.4%) had relevant abnormal findings. Only 2 symptoms were significant for abnormal imaging: blurry vision (p-value= 0.038) and visual field change (p-value= 0.014). While 4 physical exam findings had significant abnormal imaging: visual field defect (p-value= 0.016), abnormal pupil reactivity (p-value= 0.028), afferent pupillary defect (p-value= 0.018), and abnormal optic disc exam (p-value= 0.009). Conclusion: Risk indicators for abnormal neuroimaging in the setting of neuro-ophthalmological emergencies are blurred vision or changes in the visual field on history taking. While visual field irregularities, abnormal pupil reactivity with or without afferent pupillary defect, or abnormal optic discs, are risk factors related to physical testing. These findings, when present, should sway the ED physician towards neuroimaging but still individualizing each case is of utmost importance to prevent time-consuming, resource-draining, and sometimes unnecessary workup. In the end, it suggests a well-structured patient-centered algorithm to be followed by ED physicians.

Keywords: emergency department, neuro-ophthalmology, neuroimaging, risk indicators

Procedia PDF Downloads 164

Authors: V. Jagadish, Mathiyalagan V.

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Prediction of Door Touch temperature of a Cooking Oven using CFD Simulation. Self-Clean cycle is carried out in Cooking ovens to convert food spilling into ashes which makes cleaning easy. During this cycle cavity of oven is exposed to high temperature around 460 C. At this operating point the user may prone to touch the Door surfaces, Side Shield, Control Panel. To prevent heat experienced by user, cooling system is built in oven. The most effective cooling system is developed with existing design constraints through CFD Simulations. Cross Flow fan is used for Cooling system due to its cost effectiveness and it can give more air flow with low pressure drop.

Keywords: CFD, MRF, RBM, RANS, new product development, simulation, thermal analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 143