Search results for: temporal variation

Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and novel data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

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Authors: Vitus Onyebuchim Onyemailu, Olive Obianuju Okalibe

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The study tried to examine relationship between exchange rate variations on the balance of payments in Nigeria from 1970 to 2012. Using time series on econometric measures such as Granger causality and ordinary least square (OLS), the study found that exchange rate movements especially the depreciation of naira has not contributed significantly on the balance of payments under the year of the study. The granger result conform the Marshall-Lerner short and long run prepositions that exchange rate devaluation enhances balance of payments. On disaggregation exchange rate granger causes current and capital account balances give the Nigeria data from 1970 to 2012. Overall in the long run OLS regression analysis, exchange rate on semi log functional form, exchange rate variation did not record significant effect on balance of payment equation. This height was also maintained in the current or trade balance which does not match the Marshall-Lerner. The capital account balance in reverse reported a significant impact of exchange rate variability on the capital account balance. Finally, on exchange rate determination equation, where many fundamentals were considered including lagged of exchange rate. Thus, the lagged of exchange rate recorded a positive and significant influence on the present exchange rate. This means that players in the financial markets usually out plays authority’s policy’s stances through their speculative tendencies. The work therefore, recommend that effort should be made by the authorities to providing enabling environment for production of goods and services to triumph in order to take advantages of steady devaluation of its currency. This is done by providing infrastructure, provision of science and technology. Thus, when this is done Nigeria would be able to have competitive power against the rest of the world.

Keywords: exchange rate variation, balance of payments, current account, capital account, Marshall-Lerner hypothesis

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Authors: Naushaba Naseem Ahmed

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Economic development does not merely depend upon the level of development but also on its distributive aspect. As it is a serious issue, the fruit of development is not equally distributed among the different section of peoples and different part of the country this cause the regional disparities in the levels of social economic development. Different part of the country has different resource endowments in term of natural, human and capital. If there is the uniform condition to grow, these areas that have better resources, are favourably placed grow comparatively faster as other areas. Thus with the very stage of development, gap between resourceful and less resourceful area goes on widening. This paper is an attempt to highlight the levels of disparities in term of economic development with the help of selected variables. Principal component analysis, correlation, and coefficient of variation are the techniques which were used in paper and employed published data for analysis. The result shows that Western region of Uttar Pradesh is more developed followed by Central Region. There will be urgent need in investment and developmental policies for the backward region like Bundelkhand region of Uttar Pradesh.

Keywords: coefficient of variation, correlation, economic development, principal component analysis

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Authors: Berhanu Terfa, Nengcheng C.

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The study deals with the analysis of urban expansion and land transformation of Hawass City using remote sensing data and landscape metrics during last three decades (1987–2017). Remote sensing data from Various multi-temporal satellite images viz., TM (1987), TM (1995), ETM+ (2005) and OLI (2017) were used to examine the urban expansion, growth types, and spatial isolation within the urban landscape to develop an understanding the trends of built-up growth in Hawassa City, Ethiopia. Landscape metrics and built-up density were employed to analyze the pattern, process and overall growth status. The area under investigation was divided into concentric circles with a consecutive circle of 1 km incremental radius from the central pixel (Central Business District) for analysis. The result exhibited that the built-up area had increased by 541.32% between 1987 and 2017and an extension growth types (more than 67 %) was observed. The major growth took place in north-west direction followed by north direction in haphazard manner during 1987–1995 period, whereas predominant built-up development was observed in south and southwest direction during 1995–2017 period. Land scape metrics result revealed that the of urban patches density, total edge and edge density increased, while mean nearest neighbors’ distance decreased showing the tendency of sprawl.

Keywords: landscape metrics, spatial patterns, remote sensing, multi-temporal, urban sprawl

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Authors: Faisal Muhibuddin, Ani Dijah Rahajoe

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This in-depth exploration, through a systematic literature review, scrutinizes the nuanced role of data mining in the classification of criminal activities. The research focuses on investigating various methodological aspects and recent developments in leveraging data mining techniques to enhance the effectiveness and precision of crime categorization. Commencing with an exposition of the foundational concepts of crime classification and its evolutionary dynamics, this study details the paradigm shift from conventional methods towards approaches supported by data mining, addressing the challenges and complexities inherent in the modern crime landscape. Specifically, the research delves into various data mining techniques, including K-means clustering, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbour, and clustering methods. A comprehensive review of the strengths and limitations of each technique provides insights into their respective contributions to improving crime classification models. The integration of diverse data sources takes centre stage in this research. A detailed analysis explores how the amalgamation of structured data (such as criminal records) and unstructured data (such as social media) can offer a holistic understanding of crime, enriching classification models with more profound insights. Furthermore, the study explores the temporal implications in crime classification, emphasizing the significance of considering temporal factors to comprehend long-term trends and seasonality. The availability of real-time data is also elucidated as a crucial element in enhancing responsiveness and accuracy in crime classification.

Keywords: data mining, classification algorithm, naïve bayes, k-means clustering, k-nearest neigbhor, crime, data analysis, sistematic literature review

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Authors: M. R. Naroui Rad, H. Fanaei, A. Ghalandarzehi

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To find out the yield of melon, the traits are vital. This research was performed with the objective to assess the impact of nine different morphological traits on the production of 20 melon landraces in the sistan weather region. For all the traits genetic variation was noted. Minimum genetical variance (9.66) along with high genetic interaction with the environment led to low heritability (0.24) of the yield. The broad sense heritability of the traits that were included into the differentiating model was more than it was in the production. In this study, the five selected traits, number of fruit, fruit weight, fruit width, flesh diameter and plant yield can differentiate the genotypes with high or low production. This demonstrated the significance of these 5 traits in plant breeding programs. Discriminant function of these 5 traits, particularly, the weight of the fruit, in case of the current outputs was employed as an all-inclusive parameter for pointing out landraces with the highest yield. 75% of variation in yield can be explained with this index, and the weight of fruit also has substantial relation with the total production (r=0.72**). This factor can be highly beneficial in case of future breeding program selections.

Keywords: melon, discriminant analysis, genetic components, yield, selection

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Authors: Dayane de Almeida

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This work aims at presenting a study that demonstrates the usability of categories of analysis from Discourse Semiotics – also known as Greimassian Semiotics in authorship cases in forensic contexts. It is necessary to know if the categories examined in semiotic analysis (the ‘grammar’ of the content plane) can distinguish authors. Thus, a study with 4 sets of texts from a corpus of ‘not on demand’ written samples (those texts differ in formality degree, purpose, addressees, themes, etc.) was performed. Each author contributed with 20 texts, separated into 2 groups of 10 (Author1A, Author1B, and so on). The hypothesis was that texts from a single author were semiotically more similar to each other than texts from different authors. The assumptions and issues that led to this idea are as follows: -The features analyzed in authorship studies mostly relate to the expression plane: they are manifested on the ‘surface’ of texts. If language is both expression and content, content would also have to be considered for more accurate results. Style is present in both planes. -Semiotics postulates the content plane is structured in a ‘grammar’ that underlies expression, and that presents different levels of abstraction. This ‘grammar’ would be a style marker. -Sociolinguistics demonstrates intra-speaker variation: an individual employs different linguistic uses in different situations. Then, how to determine if someone is the author of several texts, distinct in nature (as it is the case in most forensic sets), when it is known intra-speaker variation is dependent on so many factors?-The idea is that the more abstract the level in the content plane, the lower the intra-speaker variation, because there will be a greater chance for the author to choose the same thing. If two authors recurrently chose the same options, differently from one another, it means each one’s option has discriminatory power. -Size is another issue for various attribution methods. Since most texts in real forensic settings are short, methods relying only on the expression plane tend to fail. The analysis of the content plane as proposed by greimassian semiotics would be less size-dependable. -The semiotic analysis was performed using the software Corpus Tool, generating tags to allow the counting of data. Then, similarities and differences were quantitatively measured, through the application of the Jaccard coefficient (a statistical measure that compares the similarities and differences between samples). The results showed the hypothesis was confirmed and, hence, the grammatical categories of the content plane may successfully be used in questioned authorship scenarios.

Keywords: authorship attribution, content plane, forensic linguistics, greimassian semiotics, intraspeaker variation, style

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Authors: Letizia Maria Drammis, Maria Antonella Brandimonte

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The idea that people use space representations to think about time and number received support from several lines of research. However, how these representations develop in children and then shape space-time and space-number mappings is still a debated issue. In the present study, 40 children (20 pre-schoolers and 20 elementary-school children) performed 4 main tasks, which required the use of more concrete (non-symbolic) or more abstract (symbolic) space-time and space-number associations. In the non-symbolic conditions, children were required to order pictures of everyday-life events occurring in a specific temporal order (Temporal sequences) and of quantities varying in numerosity (Numerical sequences). In the symbolic conditions, they were asked to perform the typical time-to-position and number-to-position tasks by mapping time-related words and numbers onto lines. Results showed that children performed reliably better in the non-symbolic Time conditions than the symbolic Time conditions, independently of age, whereas only pre-schoolers performed worse in the Number-to-position task (symbolic) as compared to the Numerical sequence (non-symbolic) task. In addition, only older children mapped time-related words onto space following the typical left-right orientation, pre-schoolers’ performance being somewhat mixed. In contrast, mapping numbers onto space showed a clear left-right orientation, independently of age. Overall, these results indicate a cross-domain difference in the way younger and older children process time and number, with time-related tasks being more difficult than number-related tasks only when space-time tasks require symbolic representations.

Keywords: space-time associations, space-number associations, orientation, children

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Authors: Minjeong Kim, Seungchul Lee, Iman Janghorban Esfahani, Jeong Tai Kim, ChangKyoo Yoo

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A trajectory of set-point of ventilation control systems plays an important role for efficient ventilation inside subway stations since it affects the level of indoor air pollutants and ventilation energy consumption. To maintain indoor air quality (IAQ) at a comfortable range with lower ventilation energy consumption, the optimal trajectory of the ventilation control system needs to be determined. The concentration of air pollutants inside the station shows a diurnal variation in accordance with the variations in the number of passengers and subway frequency. To consider the diurnal variation of IAQ, an iterative dynamic programming (IDP) that searches for a piecewise control policy by separating whole duration into several stages is used. When outdoor air is contaminated by pollutants, it enters the subway station through the ventilation system, which results in the deteriorated IAQ and adverse effects on passenger health. In this study, to consider the influence of outdoor air quality (OAQ), a new performance index of the IDP with the passenger health risk and OAQ is proposed. This study was carried out for an underground subway station at Seoul Metro, Korea. The optimal set-points of the ventilation control system are determined every 3 hours, then, the ventilation controller adjusts the ventilation fan speed according to the optimal set-point changes. Compared to manual ventilation system which is operated irrespective of the OAQ, the IDP-based ventilation control system saves 3.7% of the energy consumption. Compared to the fixed set-point controller which is operated irrespective of the IAQ diurnal variation, the IDP-based controller shows better performance with a 2% decrease in energy consumption, maintaining the comfortable IAQ range inside the station.

Keywords: indoor air quality, iterative dynamic algorithm, outdoor air information, ventilation control system

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Authors: Aptin Rahnavard, Ghavamaldin Asadian, Khalil Pourshamsian, Mariamalsadat Taghavi

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Dog rose is one of the important rose species in Iran that the distant past had been considered due to nutritional value and medicinal. Despite its long history of use, due to poor information on the genetic modification of plants has been done resources inheritance. In this study was to assess the genetic diversity. Total of 30 genotypes Dog rose from areas of northern Iran in the Caspian region (provinces of Guilan and Mazandaran) were evaluated using 25 RAPD primers. The number of bands produced total of 202 and for each primer were measured in a bands with an average 8-band .The number of polymorphic bands per primer ranged from 1 to 13 and the bands were in the range of 300 to 3000 bp. Based on the results OPA-04 primer with 13 bands and PRA-1, E-09 and A-04 with 5-band were created maximum and minimum number of amplified fragments. Molecular marker genotypes showed a high degree of polymorphism. Studied genotypes based on RAPD results were divided into 2 groups and 2 subgroups. Most similar in subgroups A2 and B group was the lowest.

Keywords: rosa canina spp., RAPD marker, genetic variation, caspian climate

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Authors: Benjamin Aina Peter, Amos Wale Ogunsola

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In this paper, a mathematical model of malaria transmission was presented with the effect of seasonal shift, due to global fluctuation in temperature, on the increase of conveyor of the infectious disease, which probably alters the region transmission potential of malaria. A deterministic compartmental model was proposed and analyzed qualitatively. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches of the model were considered. The next-generation matrix is employed to determine the basic reproduction number of the model. Equilibrium points of the model were determined and analyzed. The numerical simulation is carried out using Excel Micro Software to validate and support the qualitative results. From the analysis of the result, the optimal temperature for the transmission of malaria is between and . The result also shows that an increase in temperature due to seasonal shift gives rise to the development of parasites which consequently leads to an increase in the widespread of malaria transmission in Kampala. It is also seen from the results that an increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of infectious human hosts and mosquitoes.

Keywords: seasonal variation, indoor residual spray, efficacy of spray, temperature-dependent model

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Authors: Noori Shafiqullah

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Millions of people reside downstream of river basins that heavily rely on snowmelt originating from the Hindu Kush (HK) region. Snowmelt plays a critical role as a primary water source in these areas. This study aimed to evaluate snowfall and snowmelt characteristics in the HK region across altitudes ranging from 2019m to 4533m. To achieve this, the study employed a combination of remote sensing techniques and the Snow Model (SM) to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE). By integrating the simulated Snow-cover Area (SCA) with data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the study optimized the Precipitation Gradient (PG), snowfall assessment, and the degree-day factor (DDF) for snowmelt distribution. Ground observed data from various elevations were used to calculate a temperature lapse rate of -7.0 (°C km-1). Consequently, the DDF value was determined as 3 (mm °C-1 d-1) for altitudes below 3000m and 3 to 4 (mm °C-1 d-1) for higher altitudes above 3000m. Moreover, the distribution of precipitation varies with elevation, with the PG being 0.001 (m-1) at lower elevations below 4000m and 0 (m-1) at higher elevations above 4000m. This study successfully utilized the SM to assess SCA and SWE by incorporating the two optimized parameters. The analysis of simulated SCA and MODIS data yielded coefficient determinations of R2, resulting in values of 0.95 and 0.97 for the years 2014-2015, 2015-2016, and 2016-2017, respectively. These results demonstrate that the SM is a valuable tool for managing water resources in mountainous watersheds such as the HK, where data scarcity poses a challenge."

Keywords: improved MODIS, experiment, snow water equivalent, snowmelt

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Authors: Saeed Yazdani, Shahrbanoo Bagheri, Sepideh Nikravesh

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Considering the importance and scarcity of water resources, the efficient management of water resources is of great importance. Adoption of modern irrigation technology is considered to be a key of increasing the efficiency of water used in agriculture. Policy makers have implemented several ways to induce the adoption of new irrigation technology. The empirical studies show that farmers are reluctant to utilize the use of new irrigation methods. This study aims to assess factors affecting on farmer’s decision on the application of water saving technologies with emphasize on crop price variation and water sources. A Logit model was employed to examine the impact of different variables on use of water saving technology. The required data gathered from a sample of 204 farmers in the year 2012. The results indicate that different variables such as crop price variability, water supply source, high-value crops, farm size, income, education, membership in cooperatives have a positive effect and variables such as age and number of plots have a negative impact on the probability of adopting modern water saving technologies.

Keywords: irrigation, water, water saving technology, scarcity

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Authors: Biruk Wolde, Atalay Ayele, Yonatan Garkabo, Trufat Hailmariam, Zemenu Germewu

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A comprehensive three-dimensional (3D) geological modeling and engineering geological characterization of shallow subsurface soils and rocks are essential for a wide range of geotechnical and seismological engineering applications, particularly in urban environments. The spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface of Addis Ababa city have not been studied so far in terms of geological and geotechnical modeling. This study aims at the construction of a 3D geological model, as well as provides awareness into the engineering geological characteristics of shallow subsurface soil and rock of Addis Ababa city. The 3D geological model was constructed by using more than 1500 geotechnical boreholes, well-drilling data, and geological maps. A well-known geostatistical kriging 3D interpolation algorithm was applied to visualize the spatial distribution and geological variation of the shallow subsurface. Due to the complex nature of geological formations, vertical and lateral variation of the geological profiles horizons-solid command has been selected via the Groundwater Modelling System (GMS) graphical user interface software. For the engineering geological characterization of typical soils and rocks, both index and engineering laboratory tests have been used. The geotechnical properties of soil and rocks vary from place to place due to the uneven nature of subsurface formations observed in the study areas. The constructed model ascertains the thickness, extent, and 3D distribution of the important geological units of the city. This study is the first comprehensive research work on 3D geological modeling and subsurface characterization of soils and rocks in Addis Ababa city, and the outcomes will be important for further future research on subsurface conditions in the city. Furthermore, these findings provide a reference for developing a geo-database for the city.

Keywords: 3d geological modeling, addis ababa, engineering geology, geostatistics, horizons-solid

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Authors: Usha Sivasankaran, Seetha Raman

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Experimental work on Double skin Concrete Filled tubes (DSCFT) are a variation of CFT (Concrete- filled steel tubular) with a hollow core formed by two concentric steel tubes in – filled with concrete. Six Specimens with three different volume fractions of steel fibres are cast and tested. Experiments on circular steel tubes in – filled with steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC) and normal concrete have been performed to investigate the contribution of steel fibres to the load bearing capacity of Short Composite Columns. The main Variable considered in the test study is the percentage of steel fibres added to the in –filled concrete. All the specimens were tested under axial compression until failure state realisation. This project presents the percentage Variation in the compression strengths of the 3 types of Composite members taken under Study. The results show that 1.5% SFRC in filled steel columns exhibit enhanced ultimate load carrying capacity.

Keywords: composite columns, optimization of steel, double skin, DSCFT

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Authors: Makara Rith, Young Kyu Kim, Seung Woo Lee

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In heavy duty areas, asphalt pavement constructed as entrance roadway may expose distresses such as cracking and rutting during service life. To mitigate these problems, composite pavement with a roller-compacted concrete base may be a good alternative; however, it should be initially investigated. Structural performances such as fatigue cracking and rut depth may be changed due to variation of some design factors. Therefore, this study focuses on the variation effect of material modulus, layer thickness and loading on composite pavement performances. Stress and strain at the critical location are determined and used as the input of transfer function for corresponding distresses to evaluate the pavement performance. Also, composite pavement satisfying the design criteria may be selected as a design section for heavy duty areas. Consequently, this investigation indicates that composite pavement has the ability to eliminate fatigue cracking in asphalt surfaces and significantly reduce rut depth. In addition, a thick or strong rigid base can significantly reduce rut depth and prolong fatigue life of this layer.

Keywords: composite pavement, ports, cracking, rutting

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Authors: Eleni Karantzola, Athanasios Karasimos, Vasiliki Makri, Ioanna Skouvara

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Historical linguistics unveils the historical depth of languages and traces variation and change by analyzing linguistic variables over time. This field of linguistics usually deals with a closed data set that can only be expanded by the (re)discovery of previously unknown manuscripts or editions. In some cases, it is possible to use (almost) the entire closed corpus of a language for research, as is the case with the Thesaurus Linguae Graecae digital library for Ancient Greek, which contains most of the extant ancient Greek literature. However, concerning ‘dynamic’ periods when the production and circulation of texts in printed as well as manuscript form have not been fully mapped, representative samples and corpora of texts are needed. Such material and tools are utterly lacking for Early Modern Greek (16th-18th c.). In this study, the principles of the creation of EMoGReC, a pilot representative corpus of Early Modern Greek (16th-18th c.) are presented. Its design follows the fundamental principles of historical corpora. The selection of texts aims to create a representative and balanced corpus that gives insight into diachronic, diatopic and diaphasic variation. The pilot sample includes data derived from fully machine-readable vernacular texts, which belong to 4-5 different textual genres and come from different geographical areas. We develop a hierarchical linguistic annotation scheme, further customized to fit the characteristics of our text corpus. Regarding variables and their variants, we use as a point of departure the bundle of twenty-four features (or categories of features) for prose demotic texts of the 16th c. Tags are introduced bearing the variants [+old/archaic] or [+novel/vernacular]. On the other hand, further phenomena that are underway (cf. The Cambridge Grammar of Medieval and Early Modern Greek) are selected for tagging. The annotated texts are enriched with metalinguistic and sociolinguistic metadata to provide a testbed for the development of the first comprehensive set of tools for the Greek language of that period. Based on a relational management system with interconnection of data, annotations, and their metadata, the EMoGReC database aspires to join a state-of-the-art technological ecosystem for the research of observed language variation and change using advanced computational approaches.

Keywords: early modern Greek, variation and change, representative corpus, diachronic variables.

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Authors: Fayyaz Rasool, Naureen Aziz Qureshi, Shakeela Parveen

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Labeo rohita populations from five geographical locations from the hatchery and riverine system of Punjab-Pakistan were studied for the clustering on the basis of similarities and differences based on morphometric parameters within the species. Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering (AHC) was done by using Pearson Correlation Coefficient and Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA) as Agglomeration method by XLSTAT 2012 version 1.02. A dendrogram with the data on the morphometrics of the representative samples of each site divided the populations of Labeo rohita in to five major clusters or classes. The variance decomposition for the optimal classification values remained as 19.24% for within class variation, while 80.76% for the between class differences. The representative central objects of the each class, the distances between the class centroids and also the distance between the central objects of the classes were generated by the analysis. A measurable distinction between the classes of the populations of the Labeo rohita was indicated in this study which determined the impacts of changing environment and other possible factors influencing the variation level among the populations of the same species.

Keywords: AHC, Labeo rohita, hatchery, riverine, morphometric

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Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

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Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

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Authors: Rachel A. Brant, Grace E. Kenny, Paige A. Muñiz, Gerardo R. Camilo

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The social sweat bee, Halictus ligatus, has been documented to alter its phenology as a response to changes in temporal dynamics of resources. Furthermore, H. ligatus exhibits polyethism in natural environments as a consequence of the variation in resources. Yet, we do not know if or how H. ligatus responds to these variations in urban environments. As urban environments become much more widespread, and human population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, it is crucial to distinguish how resources are allocated by bees in cities. We hypothesize that in urban regions, where floral availability varies with human activity, H. ligatus will exhibit polyethism in order to match the extremely localized spatial variability of resources. We predict that in an urban setting, where resources vary both spatially and temporally, the phenology of H. ligatus will alter in response to these fluctuations. This study was conducted in Saint Louis, Missouri, at fifteen sites each varying in size and management type (community garden, urban farm, prairie restoration). Bees were collected by hand netting from 2013-2016. Results suggest that the largest individuals, mostly gynes, occurred in lower income neighborhood community gardens in May and August. We used a model averaging procedure, based on information theoretical methods, to determine a best model for predicting bee size. Our results suggest that month and locality within the city are the best predictors of bee size. Halictus ligatus was observed to comply with the predictions of polyethism from 2013 to 2015. However, in 2016 there was an almost complete absence of the smallest worker castes. This is a significant deviation from what is expected under polyethism. This could be attributed to shifts in planting decisions, shifts in plant-pollinator matches, or local climatic conditions. Further research is needed to determine if this divergence from polyethism is a new strategy for the social sweat bee as climate continues to alter or a response to human dominated landscapes.

Keywords: polyethism, urban environment, phenology, social sweat bee

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Authors: Samy A. Khalil, U. Ali Rahoma

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The measurements of solar radiation, satellite data has been routinely utilize to estimate solar energy. However, the temporal coverage of satellite data has some limits. The reanalysis, also known as "retrospective analysis" of the atmosphere's parameters, is produce by fusing the output of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) models with observation data from a variety of sources, including ground, and satellite, ship, and aircraft observation. The result is a comprehensive record of the parameters affecting weather and climate. The effectiveness of reanalysis datasets (ERA-5) for North Africa was evaluate against high-quality surfaces measured using statistical analysis. Estimating the distribution of global solar radiation (GSR) over five chosen areas in North Africa through ten-years during the period time from 2011 to 2020. To investigate seasonal change in dataset performance, a seasonal statistical analysis was conduct, which showed a considerable difference in mistakes throughout the year. By altering the temporal resolution of the data used for comparison, the performance of the dataset is alter. Better performance is indicate by the data's monthly mean values, but data accuracy is degraded. Solar resource assessment and power estimation are discuses using the ERA-5 solar radiation data. The average values of mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of the reanalysis data of solar radiation vary from 0.079 to 0.222, 0.055 to 0.178, and 0.0145 to 0.198 respectively during the period time in the present research. The correlation coefficient (R2) varies from 0.93 to 99% during the period time in the present research. This research's objective is to provide a reliable representation of the world's solar radiation to aid in the use of solar energy in all sectors.

Keywords: solar energy, ERA-5 analysis data, global solar radiation, North Africa

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Authors: Ning Li, Jiacheng Zhang, Zheng Yang, Sylvia Kang

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Introduction: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common physiological symptom in women of reproductive age. Women with PCOS may have infrequent or prolonged menstrual periods and excess male hormone (androgen) levels. Mira analyzes the cycle profiles and the luteinizing hormone (LH) changes in urine, closely related to the fertility level of healthy women and PCOS women. From the difference between the two groups, Mira helps to understand the physiological state of PCOS women and their hormonal changes in the menstrual cycle. Methods: In this study, data from 1496 cycles and information from 342 women belonging to two groups (181 PCOS and 161 Healthy) were collected and analyzed. Women test their luteinizing hormone (LH) in urine daily with Mira fertility test wand and Mira analyzer, from the day after the menstruation to the starting day of the next menstruation. All the collected data meets Mira’s user agreement and users’ identification was removed. The cycle length, LH peak, and other cycle information of the PCOS group were compared with the Healthy group. Results: The average cycle length of PCOS women is 41 days and of the Healthy women is 33 days. 91.4% of cycle length is within 40 days for the Healthy group, while it decreases to 71.9% for the PCOS group. This means PCOS women have a longer menstrual cycle and more variation during the cycle. With more variation, the ovulation prediction becomes more difficult for the PCOS group. The deviation between the LH surge day and the predicted ovulation day, calculated by the starting day of the next menstruation minus 14 days, is greater in the PCOS group compared with the Healthy group. Also, 46.96% of PCOS women have an irregular cycle, and only 19.25% of healthy women show an irregular cycle. Conclusion: PCOS women have longer menstrual cycles and more variation during the menstrual cycles. The traditional ovulation prediction is not suitable for PCOS women.

Keywords: menstrual cycle, PCOS, urinary luteinizing hormone, Mira

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Authors: Shipra Shukla, Gaurav Chaudhary, S. K. Tewari, Mahesh Pal, D. K. Upreti

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Cassia tora L. is widely distributed in tropical Asian countries, commonly known as sickle pod. Various parts of the plant are reported for their medicinal value due to presence of anthraquinones, phenolic compounds, emodin, β-sitosterol, and chrysophanol. Therefore a sensitive analytical procedure using UHPLC-ESI-MS/MS was developed and validated for simultaneous quantification of five phenolic compounds in leaf, stem and root extracts of Cassia tora. Rapid chromatographic separation of compounds was achieved on Acquity UHPLC BEH C18 column (50 mm×2.1 mm id, 1.7µm) column in 2.5 min. Quantification was carried out using negative electrospray ionization in multiple-reaction monitoring mode. The method was validated as per ICH guidelines and showed good linearity (r2 ≥ 0.9985) over the concentration range of 0.5-200 ng/mL. The intra- and inter-day precisions and accuracy were within RSDs ≤ 1.93% and ≤ 1.90%, respectively. The developed method was applied to investigate variation of five phenolic compounds in the three geographical collections. Results indicated significant variation among analyzed samples collected from different locations in India.

Keywords: Cassia tora, phenolic compounds, quantification, UHPLC-ESI-MS/MS

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Authors: Farhad Asadi, Mohammad Javad Mollakazemi

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In this paper, Bayesian online inference in models of data series are constructed by change-points algorithm, which separated the observed time series into independent series and study the change and variation of the regime of the data with related statistical characteristics. variation of statistical characteristics of time series data often represent separated phenomena in the some dynamical system, like a change in state of brain dynamical reflected in EEG signal data measurement or a change in important regime of data in many dynamical system. In this paper, prediction algorithm for studying change point location in some time series data is simulated. It is verified that pattern of proposed distribution of data has important factor on simpler and smother fluctuation of hazard rate parameter and also for better identification of change point locations. Finally, the conditions of how the time series distribution effect on factors in this approach are explained and validated with different time series databases for some dynamical system.

Keywords: time series, fluctuation in statistical characteristics, optimal learning, change-point algorithm

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Authors: Charles Chikwendu Okpala, Christopher Chukwutoo Ihueze

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As a technique that reduces variation in a product by lessening the sensitivity of the design to sources of variation, rather than by controlling their sources, Taguchi Robust Design entails the designing of ideal goods, by developing a product that has minimal variance in its characteristics and also meets the desired exact performance. This paper examined the concept of the manufacturing approach and its application to brake pad product of an automotive parts manufacturing company. Although the firm claimed that only defects, excess inventory, and over-production were the few wastes that grossly affect their productivity and profitability, a careful study and analysis of their manufacturing processes with the application of Single Minute Exchange of Dies (SMED) tool showed that the waste of waiting is the fourth waste that bedevils the firm. The selection of the Taguchi L9 orthogonal array which is based on the four parameters and the three levels of variation for each parameter revealed that with a range of 2.17, that waiting is the major waste that the company must reduce in order to continue to be viable. Also, to enhance the company’s throughput and profitability, the wastes of over-production, excess inventory, and defects with ranges of 2.01, 1.46, and 0.82, ranking second, third, and fourth respectively must also be reduced to the barest minimum. After proposing -33.84 as the highest optimum Signal-to-Noise ratio to be maintained for the waste of waiting, the paper advocated for the adoption of all the tools and techniques of Lean Production System (LPS), and Continuous Improvement (CI), and concluded by recommending SMED in order to drastically reduce set up time which leads to unnecessary waiting.

Keywords: lean production system, single minute exchange of dies, signal to noise ratio, Taguchi robust design, waste

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Authors: David C. Ni

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Contemporary models for N-body systems are based on temporal, two-body, and mass point representation of Newtonian mechanics. Other mainstream models include 2D and 3D Ising models based on local neighborhood the lattice structures. In Quantum mechanics, the theories of collective modes are for superconductivity and for the long-range quantum entanglement. However, these models are still mainly for the specific phenomena with a set of designated parameters. We are therefore motivated to develop a new construction directly from the complex-variable N-body systems based on the extended Blaschke functions (EBF), which represent a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation on the complex plane – the normalized momentum spaces. A point on the complex plane represents a normalized state of particle momentums observed from a reference frame in the theory of special relativity. There are only two key parameters, normalized momentum and nonlinearity for modelling. An algorithm similar to Jenkins-Traub method is adopted for solving EBF iteratively. Through iteration, the solution sets show a form of σ + i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various distributions, such as 1-peak, 2-peak, and 3-peak etc. distributions and some of them are analog to the canonical distributions. The results of the numerical analysis demonstrate continuum-to-discreteness transitions, evolutional invariance of distributions, phase transitions with conjugate symmetry, etc., which manifest the construction as a potential candidate for the unification of statistics. We hereby classify the observed distributions on the finite convergent domains. Continuous and discrete distributions both exist and are predictable for given partitions in different regions of parameter-pair. We further compare these distributions with canonical distributions and address the impacts on the existing applications.

Keywords: blaschke, lorentz transformation, complex variables, continuous, discrete, canonical, classification

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Authors: Thomas LaRocca

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This study explores the development of a public-school music teacher’s professional identity within three domains: as an educator in the profession at large, as a music teacher in a school, and as a professional musician. An autoethnographic method is employed by calling upon undergraduate student teaching reflections, graduate writing assignments and presentations, cover letters for employment, professional correspondence, and reflective memos. These artifacts provide a reference for phenomenological insights into the values, hopes, and criticisms within each domain over time –all of which provide a window into the overall ontological perspective of one’s professional life at different moments in their career. While the topic of music teacher identity has been examined using autoethnographical methods before, by accessing materials over the course of ten years, the study is able to investigate the ‘how’ of identity development in a temporal context; from undergraduate student to established professional. Additionally, while the field offers a considerable amount of work surrounding the child and adolescent identity development, there are unmined opportunities to examine identity development in the adult years, especially surrounding adult professional life. Employing a postpositivist approach with social constructionism as a backdrop, this study examines adult identity formation and the contradictions, resonances, and priorities within each domain, between each domain, and perceived expectations of the professional community. What is revealed is a journey of self-improvement motivated by failure and success, marked by negotiation and sacrifice; as each domain competes for mental and temporal resources, identity is viewed as not just who one is, but also as what one leaves behind. These insights offer a window into the ontology of identity of a music educator and may provide considerations for differentiating professional development based on what stage educators are at in their careers.

Keywords: identity, longitudinal autoethnography, music teacher education, music teacher ontology

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Authors: Sun fang, Zhang Wenxin

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This paper establishes an evaluation index system for spatio-temporal patterns of urbanization, with the county as research unit. We use the Entropy Weight method, coefficient variance, the Theil index and ESDA-GIS to analyze spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of New-Type Urbanization in the Central Plains Economic Region (CPER) between 2000 and 2011. Results show that economic benefit, non-agricultural employment level and level of market development are the most important factors influencing the level of New-Type Urbanization in the CPER; overall regional differences in New-Type Urbanization have declined while spatial correlations have increased from 2000 to 2011. The overall spatial pattern has changed little, however; differences between the western and eastern areas of the CPER are clear, and the pattern of a strong west and weak east did not change significantly over the study period. Areas with high levels of New-Type Urbanization were mostly distributed along the Beijing-Guangzhou and LongHai Railways on both sides, a new influx of urbanization was tightly clustered around ZhengZhou in the Central Henan Urban Agglomeration, but this trend was found to be weakening slightly. The level of New-Type Urbanization in municipal districts was found to be much higher than it was in the county generally. Provincial borders experienced a lower rate of growth and a lower level of New-Type Urbanization than did any other areas, consistently forming clusters of cold spots and sub-cold spots. The analysis confirms that historical development, location, and diffusion effects of urban agglomeration are the main drivers of changes in New-Type Urbanization patterns in CPER.

Keywords: new-type urbanization, spatial pattern, central plains economic region, spatial evolution

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Authors: Loke Kean Koay, Mani Maran Ratnam

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A mechanically-resonant torsional spring scanner was developed in a recent study. Various methods were developed to improve the angular displacement of the scanner while maintaining the scanner frequency. However, the effects of rotor magnet radial position on scanner characteristics were not well investigated. In this study, the relationships between the magnet position and the scanner characteristics such as natural frequency, angular displacement and stress level were studied. A finite element model was created and an average deviation of 3.18% was found between the simulation and experimental results, qualifying the simulation results as a guide for further investigations. Three magnet positions on the transverse oscillating suspended plate were investigated by finite element analysis (FEA) and one of the positions were selected as the design position. The magnet position with the longest distance from the twist axis of the mirror was selected since it attains minimum stress level while exceeding the minimum critical flicker frequency and delivering the targeted angular displacement to the scanner.

Keywords: torsional scanner, design optimization, computer-aided design, magnet position variation

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Authors: Yildirim Ortaoglan

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The attempt to make thought school-like by fitting it into various frameworks with the institutionalization of it is almost simultaneous with philosophy itself. What once sprouted in the “academia” of old has institutionalized under the enlightenment's light, becoming the fundamental space reflecting the spirit of its age. However, the shift from the thinking temple where truth's knowledge was sought to functional spaces where power/power relations are constructed indicates a significant rupture in the meaning of school. Therefore, a genealogical inquiry into the meaning of the school can provide us with a path toward understanding how it should be approached in contemporary times. From this perspective, it is essential to highlight how power/power relations operate in the school in terms of disciplinary practices, temporal management, and spatial organization to construct a distinct subjectivation. Recognizing that the changing and evolving nature of education is related to the structure of space can be understood by revealing how disciplinary power and bio-power, two fundamental aspects of genealogical research, operate. In disciplinary power, the relationship of the subject with discipline, temporal management, and space is about improvement and normalization, while in biopower, it manifests in maximizing utility, increasing free time, and constructing spaces that seem more vital. These indicators not only facilitate the formation of students as a subjectivation but also enable the condition of the possibility of power/power relations. Because power is not applied to subjects but used by them for passage, and behind this lies the idea that the individual is already one of the components of power. As one of the components of power, in terms of subjectivation type, the student is one of the primary targets of power relations. Therefore, conducting a genealogical inquiry of the student as a type of subjectivation and the school as its living area from the philosophical foundations of education may offer a new opportunity for thinking about the contemporary crisis of thought. Within the framework of this possibility, our investigation will consider which aspects of the school and the student, brought together for educational purposes, can be thought of within and beyond power/power relations.

Keywords: power, education, space, school, student, discipline

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