Search results for: sales process ARIMA models

Authors: Xiaoting Jing, Ling Huang

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After the reform and opening up, Chongqing has formed far more high-rise residential areas than other cities in its more than 40 years of urban construction. High-rise residential areas have become one of the main modern living models in Chongqing and an important carrier reflecting the city's high quality of life. Reviewing the construction process and renewal work helps understand the characteristics of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing at different stages, clarify current development demands, and look forward to the focus of future renewal work. Based on socio-economic development and policy background, the article sorts the construction process of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing into four stages: the early experimental construction period of high-rise residential areas (1978-1996), the rapid start-up period of high-rise commodity housing construction (1997-2006), the large-scale construction period of high-rise commodity housing and public rental housing (2007-2014), and the period of renewal and renovation of high-rise residential areas and step-by-step construction of quality commodity housing (2015-present). Based on the construction demands and main construction types of each stage, the article summarizes that the construction of high-rise residential areas in Chongqing features large scale, high speed, and high density. It points out that a large number of high-rise residential areas built after 2000 will become important objects of renewal and renovation in the future. Based on existing renewal work experience, it is urgent to explore a path for sustainable renewal and development in terms of policy mechanisms, digital supervision, and renewal and renovation models, leading the high-rise living in Chongqing toward high-quality development.

Keywords: high-rise residential areas, construction process, renewal and renovation, Chongqing

Procedia PDF Downloads 67

Authors: Suriya

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Rapid socio-economic development and urbanization have led to an increasingly serious air pollution problem in Ulaanbaatar (UB), the capital of Mongolia. PM₂.₅ pollution has become the most pressing aspect of UB air pollution. Therefore, monitoring and predicting PM₂.₅ concentration in UB is of great significance for the health of the local people and environmental management. As of yet, very few studies have used models to predict PM₂.₅ concentrations in UB. Using data from 0:00 on June 1, 2018, to 23:00 on April 30, 2020, we proposed two deep learning models based on Bayesian-optimized LSTM (Bayes-LSTM) and CNN-LSTM. We utilized hourly observed data, including Himawari8 (H8) aerosol optical depth (AOD), meteorology, and PM₂.₅ concentration, as input for the prediction of PM₂.₅ concentrations. The correlation strengths between meteorology, AOD, and PM₂.₅ were analyzed using the gray correlation analysis method; the comparison of the performance improvement of the model by using the AOD input value was tested, and the performance of these models was evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The prediction accuracies of Bayes-LSTM and CNN-LSTM deep learning models were both improved when AOD was included as an input parameter. Improvement of the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model was particularly enhanced in the non-heating season; in the heating season, the prediction accuracy of the Bayes-LSTM model slightly improved, while the prediction accuracy of the CNN-LSTM model slightly decreased. We propose two novel deep learning models for PM₂.₅ concentration prediction in UB, Bayes-LSTM, and CNN-LSTM deep learning models. Pioneering the use of AOD data from H8 and demonstrating the inclusion of AOD input data improves the performance of our two proposed deep learning models.

Keywords: deep learning, AOD, PM2.5, prediction, Ulaanbaatar

Procedia PDF Downloads 48

Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

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The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics

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Authors: Y. N. Phang, E. F. Loh

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Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling over-dispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian, and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling over-dispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.

Keywords: zero inflated, inverse trinomial distribution, Poisson inverse Gaussian distribution, strict arcsine distribution, Pearson’s goodness of fit

Procedia PDF Downloads 542

Authors: Ruchika Malhotra, Megha Khanna

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The development of change prediction models can help the software practitioners in planning testing and inspection resources at early phases of software development. However, a major challenge faced during the training process of any classification model is the imbalanced nature of the software quality data. A data with very few minority outcome categories leads to inefficient learning process and a classification model developed from the imbalanced data generally does not predict these minority categories correctly. Thus, for a given dataset, a minority of classes may be change prone whereas a majority of classes may be non-change prone. This study explores various alternatives for adeptly handling the imbalanced software quality data using different sampling methods and effective MetaCost learners. The study also analyzes and justifies the use of different performance metrics while dealing with the imbalanced data. In order to empirically validate different alternatives, the study uses change data from three application packages of open-source Android data set and evaluates the performance of six different machine learning techniques. The results of the study indicate extensive improvement in the performance of the classification models when using resampling method and robust performance measures.

Keywords: change proneness, empirical validation, imbalanced learning, machine learning techniques, object-oriented metrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 418

Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

Procedia PDF Downloads 652

Authors: Kingsley Oturu, Winifred Ijomah, Wale Coker, Chibueze Achi

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With the impact of BREXIT and the need for cross-border collaboration, this international research investigated the use of a conceptual model for remanufacturing medical equipment (with a focus on anesthetic machines and baby incubators). Early findings of the research suggest that contextual factors need to be taken into consideration, as well as an emphasis on cleaning (e.g., sterilization) during the process of remanufacturing medical equipment. For example, copper tubings may be more important in the remanufacturing of anesthetic equipment in tropical climates than in cold climates.

Keywords: medical equipment remanufacture, sustainability, circular business models, remanufacture process model

Procedia PDF Downloads 172

Authors: Amira Abdelrasoul, Huu Doan, Ali Lohi

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An efficient and well-planned ultrafiltration process is becoming a necessity for monetary returns in the industrial settings. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical model for an accurate prediction of ultrafiltration membrane fouling of latex effluent applied to homogeneous and heterogeneous membranes with uniform and non-uniform pore sizes, respectively. The models were also developed for an accurate prediction of power consumption that can handle the large-scale purposes. The model incorporated the fouling attachments as well as chemical and physical factors in membrane fouling for accurate prediction and scale-up application. Both Polycarbonate and Polysulfone flat membranes, with pore sizes of 0.05 µm and a molecular weight cut-off of 60,000, respectively, were used under a constant feed flow rate and a cross-flow mode in ultrafiltration of the simulated paint effluent. Furthermore, hydrophilic ultrafilic and hydrophobic PVDF membranes with MWCO of 100,000 were used to test the reliability of the models. Monodisperse particles of 50 nm and 100 nm in diameter, and a latex effluent with a wide range of particle size distributions were utilized to validate the models. The aggregation and the sphericity of the particles indicated a significant effect on membrane fouling.

Keywords: membrane fouling, mathematical modeling, power consumption, attachments, ultrafiltration

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Authors: Fahad Suleiman

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Queuing, in medical system is the process of moving patients in a specific sequence to a specific service according to the patients’ nature of illness. The term scheduling stands for the process of computing a schedule. This may be done by a queuing based scheduler. This paper focuses on the medical consultancy system, the different queuing algorithms that are used in healthcare system to serve the patients, and the average waiting time. The aim of this paper is to build automatic queuing system for organizing the medical queuing system that can analyses the queue status and take decision which patient to serve. The new queuing architecture model can switch between different scheduling algorithms according to the testing results and the factor of the average waiting time. The main innovation of this work concerns the modeling of the average waiting time is taken into processing, in addition with the process of switching to the scheduling algorithm that gives the best average waiting time.

Keywords: queuing systems, queuing system models, scheduling algorithms, patients

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Di Han, Lingfeng Li

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Selection of low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process applicable to skid design, using Hysys software to simulate the low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process under different refrigeration modes, focusing on comparing the refrigeration effect of different refrigeration modes, the condensation amount of hydrocarbon liquids and alcoholic wastewater, as well as the adaptability of the process, and determining the low-temperature separation process applicable to the natural gas dehydration and dehydrochlorination skid into the design of skid; and finally, to carry out the CNG recycling process calculations of the processed qualified natural gas and to determine the dehydration scheme and the key parameters of the compression process.

Keywords: skidding, dehydration and dehydrochlorination, cryogenic separation process, CNG recovery process calculations

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Authors: Maryam Safrai, Tewfik Mahdi

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This article presents the stochastic modeling of the Richelieu River flood in Quebec, Canada, occurred in the spring of 2011. With the aid of the one-dimensional Watershed Modeling System (WMS (v.10.1) and HEC-RAS (v.4.1) as a flood simulator, the delineation of the probabilistic flooded areas was considered. Based on the Monte Carlo method, WMS (v.10.1) delineated the probabilistic flooded areas with corresponding occurrence percentages. Furthermore, results of this one-dimensional model were compared with the results of two-dimensional model (SRH-2D) for the evaluation of efficiency and precision of each applied model. Based on this comparison, computational process in two-dimensional model is longer and more complicated versus brief one-dimensional one. Although, two-dimensional models are more accurate than one-dimensional method, but according to existing modellers, delineation of probabilistic flooded areas based on Monte Carlo method is achievable via one-dimensional modeler. The applied software in this case study greatly responded to verify the research objectives. As a result, flood risk maps of the Richelieu River with the two applied models (1d, 2d) could elucidate the flood risk factors in hydrological, hydraulic, and managerial terms.

Keywords: flood modeling, HEC-RAS, model comparison, Monte Carlo simulation, probabilistic flooded area, SRH-2D, WMS

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Flavio Cordeiro Fontanella, Asla Medeiros e Sá, Moacyr Alvim Horta Barbosa da Silva

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In the present work, we analyse the performance of football results forecasting models. In order to do so, we have performed the data collection from eight different forecasting models during the 2021 Brazilian football season. First, we guide the analysis through visual representations of the data, designed to highlight the most prominent features and enhance the interpretation of differences and similarities between the models. We propose using a 2-simplex triangle to investigate visual patterns from the results forecasting models. Next, we compute the expected points for every team playing in the championship and compare them to the final league standings, revealing interesting contrasts between actual to expected performances. Then, we evaluate forecasts’ accuracy using the Ranked Probability Score (RPS); models comparison accounts for tiny scale differences that may become consistent in time. Finally, we observe that the Wisdom of Crowds principle can be appropriately applied in the context, driving into a discussion of results forecasts usage in practice. This paper’s primary goal is to encourage football forecasts’ performance discussion. We hope to accomplish it by presenting appropriate criteria and easy-to-understand visual representations that can point out the relevant factors of the subject.

Keywords: accuracy evaluation, Brazilian championship, football results forecasts, forecasting models, visual analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 95

Authors: Francesca Croce

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Governmental development strategies aimed at entrepreneurship as a major resource for economic development and poverty reduction of indigenous people. As initiatives and programs are local based, there is a need to better understand the contextual factors of indigenous entrepreneurial models. The purpose of this paper is, therefore, to analyze and integrated the indigenous entrepreneurship literature in order to identify the main models of indigenous entrepreneurship. To answer this need, a systematic literature review was conducted. Relevant articles were identified in selected electronic databases (ABI/Inform Global, Business Source Premier, Web of Science; International Bibliography of the Social Sciences, Academic Search, Sociological Abstract, Entrepreneurial Studies Sources and Bibliography of Native North America) and in selected electronic review. Beginning to 1st January 1995 (first International Day of the World’s Indigenous People), 59 academic articles were selected from 1411. Through systematic analysis of the cultural, social and organizational variables, the paper highlights that a typology of indigenous entrepreneurial models is possible thought the concept of entrepreneurial ecosystem, which includes the geographical position and the environment of the indigenous communities. The results show three models of indigenous entrepreneurship: the urban indigenous entrepreneurship, the semi-urban indigenous entrepreneurship, and rural indigenous entrepreneurship. After the introduction, the paper is organized as follows. In the first part theoretical and practical needs of a systematic literature review on indigenous entrepreneurship are provided. In the second part, the methodology, the selection process and evaluation of the articles are explained. In the third part, findings are presented and each indigenous entrepreneurial model characteristics are discussed. The results of this study bring a new theorization about indigenous entrepreneurship and may be useful for scientists in the field in search of overcoming the cognitive border of Indigenous business models still too little known. Also, the study is addressed to policy makers in charge of indigenous entrepreneurial development strategies more focused on contextual factors studies.

Keywords: community development, entrepreneurial ecosystem, indigenous entrepreneurship model, indigenous people, systematic literature review

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: M. I. Youssef, A. E. Emam, M. Abd Elghany

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The performance of wireless communication systems is affected mainly by the environment of its associated channel, which is characterized by dynamic and unpredictable behavior. In this paper, different statistical earth-satellite channel models are studied with emphasize on two main models, first is the Rice-Log normal model, due to its representation for the environment including shadowing and multi-path components that affect the propagated signal along its path, and a three-state model that take into account different fading conditions (clear area, moderate shadow and heavy shadowing). The provided models are based on AWGN, Rician, Rayleigh, and log-normal distributions were their Probability Density Functions (PDFs) are presented. The transmission system Bit Error Rate (BER), Peak-Average-Power Ratio (PAPR), and the channel capacity vs. fading models are measured and analyzed. These simulations are implemented using MATLAB tool, and the results had shown the performance of transmission system over different channel models.

Keywords: fading channels, MIMO communication, RNS scheme, statistical modeling

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Authors: Yufen Qin

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Text sentiment transfer is an important branch of text style transfer. The goal is to generate text with another sentiment attribute based on a text with a specific sentiment attribute while maintaining the content and semantic information unrelated to sentiment unchanged in the process. There are currently two main challenges in this field: no parallel corpus and text attribute entanglement. In response to the above problems, this paper proposed a novel solution: Mask-Prompt-Rerank. Use the method of masking the sentiment words and then using prompt regeneration to transfer the sentence sentiment. Experiments on two sentiment benchmark datasets and one formality transfer benchmark dataset show that this approach makes the performance of small pre-trained language models comparable to that of the most advanced large models, while consuming two orders of magnitude less computing and memory.

Keywords: language model, natural language processing, prompt, text sentiment transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Debora Gottardello, Mireia Valverde Aparicio, Juan Llopis Taverner

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Globalization has given rise to a great diversity in the composition of people in organizations. Diversity management is therefore key to create growth in today’s competitive global marketplace. This work develops a literature review related to the existing models for managing diversity covering the period from 1980 until 2014. Furthermore, it identifies limitations in previous models. More specifically, the literature review reveals that there is a lack of information about how these models can be adapted from the headquarters to the subsidiaries. Therefore, the contribution of this paper is to suggest how the models should be adapted when they are directed to host countries. Our aim is to highlight the limitations of the developed models with regards to the translation of the diversity management practices to the subsidiaries. Accordingly, a model that will enable MNCs to ensure a global strategy is suggested. Taking advantage of the potential incorporated in a culturally diverse work team should be at the top of every international company’s aims. Executives from headquarters need to use different attitudes when transferring diversity practices towards their subsidiaries. Further studies should reassess local practices of diversity management to find out how this universal management model is translated.

Keywords: culture diversity, diversity management, human resources management, MNCs, subsidiaries, workforce diversity

Procedia PDF Downloads 255

Authors: Aldin Justin Sundararaj, Austin Lord Tennyson, Divya Jose, A. N. Subash

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Blast waves are generated due to the explosions of high energy materials. An explosion yielding a blast wave has the potential to cause severe damage to buildings and its personnel. In order to understand the physics of effects of blast pressure on buildings, studies in the shock tube on generic configurations are carried out at various pressures on discrete models. The strength of shock wave is systematically varied by using different driver gases and diaphragm thickness. The basic material of the diaphragm is Aluminum. To simulate the effect of shock waves on discrete models a shock tube was used. Generic models selected for this study are suitably scaled cylinder, cone and cubical blocks. The experiments were carried out with 2mm diaphragm with burst pressure ranging from 28 to 31 bar. Numerical analysis was carried out over these discrete models. A 3D model of shock-tube with different discrete models inside the tube was used for CFD computation. It was found that cone has dissipated most of the shock pressure compared to cylinder and cubical block. The robustness and the accuracy of the numerical model were validation with the analytical and experimental data.

Keywords: shock wave, blast wave, discrete models, shock tube

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Martin Georgiev, Milena Nanova, Damyan Damov

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Architects, engineers, and developers need to analyse and implement a wide spectrum of data in different formats, if they want to produce viable residential developments. Usually, this data comes from a number of different sources and is not well structured. The main objective of this research project is to provide parametric tools working with real geodesic data that can generate residential solutions. Various codes, regulations and design constraints are described by variables and prioritized. In this way, we establish a common workflow for architects, geodesists, and other professionals involved in the building and investment process. This collaborative medium ensures that the generated design variants conform to various requirements, contributing to a more streamlined and informed decision-making process. The quantification of distinctive characteristics inherent to typical residential structures allows a systematic evaluation of the generated variants, focusing on factors crucial to designers, such as daylight simulation, circulation analysis, space utilization, view orientation, etc. Integrating real geodesic data offers a holistic view of the built environment, enhancing the accuracy and relevance of the design solutions. The use of generative algorithms and parametric models offers high productivity and flexibility of the design variants. It can be implemented in more conventional CAD and BIM workflow. Experts from different specialties can join their efforts, sharing a common digital workspace. In conclusion, our research demonstrates that a generative parametric approach based on real geodesic data and collaborative decision-making could be introduced in the early phases of the design process. This gives the designers powerful tools to explore diverse design possibilities, significantly improving the qualities of the building investment during its entire lifecycle.

Keywords: architectural design, residential buildings, urban development, geodesic data, generative design, parametric models, workflow optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: U. S. Putro, L. Mayangsari, M. Siallagan, N. P. Tjahyani

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National Collective Management Institute (LKMN) in Indonesia stated that legal music products were about 77.552.008 unit while illegal music products were about 22.0688.225 unit in 1996 and this number keeps getting worse every year. Consequently, Indonesia named as one of the countries with high piracy levels in 2005. This study models people decision toward unlawful behavior, music content piracy in particular, using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS). The classification of actors in the model constructed in this study are legal consumer, illegal consumer, and neutral consumer. The decision toward piracy among the actors is a manifestation of the social norm which attributes are social pressure, peer pressure, social approval, and perceived prevalence of piracy. The influencing attributes fluctuate depending on the majority of surrounding behavior called social network. There are two main interventions undertaken in the model, campaign and peer influence, which leads to scenarios in the simulation: positively-framed descriptive norm message, negatively-framed descriptive norm message, positively-framed injunctive norm with benefits message, and negatively-framed injunctive norm with costs message. Using NetLogo, the model is simulated in 30 runs with 10.000 iteration for each run. The initial number of agent was set 100 proportion of 95:5 for illegal consumption. The assumption of proportion is based on the data stated that 95% sales of music industry are pirated. The finding of this study is that negatively-framed descriptive norm message has a worse reversed effect toward music piracy. The study discovers that selecting the context-based campaign is the key process to reduce the level of intention toward music piracy as unlawful behavior by increasing the compliance awareness. The context of Indonesia reveals that that majority of people has actively engaged in music piracy as unlawful behavior, so that people think that this illegal act is common behavior. Therefore, providing the information about how widespread and big this problem is could make people do the illegal consumption behavior instead. The positively-framed descriptive norm message scenario works best to reduce music piracy numbers as it focuses on supporting positive behavior and subject to the right perception on this phenomenon. Music piracy is not merely economical, but rather social phenomenon due to the underlying motivation of the actors which has shifted toward community sharing. The indication of misconception of value co-creation in the context of music piracy in Indonesia is also discussed. This study contributes theoretically that understanding how social norm configures the behavior of decision-making process is essential to breakdown the phenomenon of unlawful behavior in music industry. In practice, this study proposes that reward-based and context-based strategy is the most relevant strategy for stakeholders in music industry. Furthermore, this study provides an opportunity that findings may generalize well beyond music piracy context. As an emerging body of work that systematically constructs the backstage of law and social affect decision-making process, it is interesting to see how the model is implemented in other decision-behavior related situation.

Keywords: music piracy, social norm, behavioral decision-making, agent-based model, value co-creation

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Irene Yi

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Machine learning, natural language processing, and neural network models of language are becoming more and more prevalent in the fields of technology and linguistics today. Training data for machines are at best, large corpora of human literature and at worst, a reflection of the ugliness in society. Machines have been trained on millions of human books, only to find that in the course of human history, derogatory and sexist adjectives are used significantly more frequently when describing females in history and literature than when describing males. This is extremely problematic, both as training data, and as the outcome of natural language processing. As machines start to handle more responsibilities, it is crucial to ensure that they do not take with them historical sexist and misogynistic notions. This paper gathers data and algorithms from neural network models of language having to deal with syntax, semantics, sociolinguistics, and text classification. Results are significant in showing the existing intentional and unintentional misogynistic notions used to train machines, as well as in developing better technologies that take into account the semantics and syntax of text to be more mindful and reflect gender equality. Further, this paper deals with the idea of non-binary gender pronouns and how machines can process these pronouns correctly, given its semantic and syntactic context. This paper also delves into the implications of gendered grammar and its effect, cross-linguistically, on natural language processing. Languages such as French or Spanish not only have rigid gendered grammar rules, but also historically patriarchal societies. The progression of society comes hand in hand with not only its language, but how machines process those natural languages. These ideas are all extremely vital to the development of natural language models in technology, and they must be taken into account immediately.

Keywords: gendered grammar, misogynistic language, natural language processing, neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 120

Authors: Sunitha Thappa

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Business environment is a set of complex interdependent dimensions that corporates have to always be vigil in identifying the influential waves. Over the year business environment has evolved into a basket of uncertainties. Every organization strives to counter this dynamic nature of business environment by recurrently evaluating the primary and support activities of its value chain. This has led to companies redesigning their business models, reinvent business processes and operating procedure on unremitting basis. A few specific issues that are placed before the present day managers are breaking down the functional interpretation of any challenge that organizations confronts, reduction in organizational hierarchy and tackling the components of the value chain to retain their competitive advantage. It is how effectively managers detect the changes and swiftly reorient themselves to these changes that define their success or failure. Given the complexity of decision making in this dynamic environment, two important question placed before the B-schools of today. Firstly, are they grooming and nurturing managerial talent proficient enough to thrive in this multifaceted business environment? Secondly, are the management graduates walking through their portals, able to view challenges from a cross-functional perspective with emphasis to customer and process rather than hierarchy and functions. This paper focuses on the need for a process oriented approach to management education.

Keywords: management education, pedagogy, functional, process

Procedia PDF Downloads 332

Authors: Seyoung Kim, Jeongmin Kim, Kwang Ryel Ryu

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A database that records average traffic speeds measured at five-minute intervals for all the links in the traffic network of a metropolitan city. While learning from this data the models that can predict future traffic speed would be beneficial for the applications such as the car navigation system, building predictive models for every link becomes a nontrivial job if the number of links in a given network is huge. An advantage of adopting k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) as predictive models is that it does not require any explicit model building. Instead, k-NN takes a long time to make a prediction because it needs to search for the k-nearest neighbors in the database at prediction time. In this paper, we investigate how much we can speed up k-NN in making traffic speed predictions by reducing the amount of data to be searched for without a significant sacrifice of prediction accuracy. The rationale behind this is that we had a better look at only the recent data because the traffic patterns not only repeat daily or weekly but also change over time. In our experiments, we build several different k-NN models employing different sets of features which are the current and past traffic speeds of the target link and the neighbor links in its up/down-stream. The performances of these models are compared by measuring the average prediction accuracy and the average time taken to make a prediction using various amounts of data.

Keywords: big data, k-NN, machine learning, traffic speed prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 363

Authors: Yong-Jun Jeon, Hyung-Pil Park, Min-Jae Song, Baeg-Soon Cha

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Following the recent trend of having increased demand in producing lighter-weight car bodies for improvement of automobile safety and gas mileage, there is a forming method that makes use of hot-stamping technique, which satisfies all conditions mentioned above. Hot-stamping is a forming technique with advantages of excellent formability, good dimensional precision and others since it is a process in which steel plates are heated up to temperatures of at least approximately 900°C after which forming is conducted in die at room temperature followed by rapid cooling. In addition, it has characteristics of allowing for improvement in material strength through achievement of quenching effect by having simultaneous forming and rapid cooling of material of high temperatures. However, there is insufficient information on the changes in material strength according to changes in material temperature with regards to material heating method and forming process in hot-stamping. Accordingly, this study aims to design and press die for T-type product of the scale models of the center pillar and to understand the changes in material strength in relation to changes in forming methods of hot-stamping process. Thus in order to understand the changes in material strength due to quenching effect among the hot-stamping process, material strength and material forming precision were to be studied while varying the forming and forming method when forming. For test methods, material strength was observed by using boron steel that has boron additives, which was heated up to 950°C, after which it was transferred to a die and was cooled down to material temperature of 400°C followed by air cooling process. During the forming and cooling process here, experiment was conducted with forming parameters of 2 holding rates and 3 flange heating rates wherein changing appearance in material strength according to changes forming method were observed by verifying forming strength and forming precision for each of the conditions.

Keywords: hot-stamping, formability, quenching, forming, press die, forming methods

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Authors: M. S. Wickramarachchi, L. S. Nawarathna, C. M. B. Dematawewa

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Hatchery performance is critical for the profitability of poultry breeder operations. Some extrinsic parameters of eggs and breeders cause to increase or decrease the hatchability. This study aims to identify the affecting extrinsic parameters on the commercial hatchability of local chicken's eggs and determine the most efficient classification model with a hatchability rate greater than 90%. In this study, seven extrinsic parameters were considered: egg weight, moisture loss, breeders age, number of fertilised eggs, shell width, shell length, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression was performed to determine the most influencing variable on hatchability. First, the correlation between each parameter and hatchability were checked. Then a multiple regression model was developed, and the accuracy of the fitted model was evaluated. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) with a linear kernel, and Random Forest (RF) algorithms were applied to classify the hatchability. This grouping process was conducted using binary classification techniques. Hatchability was negatively correlated with egg weight, breeders' age, shell width, shell length, and positive correlations were identified with moisture loss, number of fertilised eggs, and shell thickness. Multiple linear regression models were more accurate than single linear models regarding the highest coefficient of determination (R²) with 94% and minimum AIC and BIC values. According to the classification results, RF, CART, and kNN had performed the highest accuracy values 0.99, 0.975, and 0.972, respectively, for the commercial hatchery process. Therefore, the RF is the most appropriate machine learning algorithm for classifying the breeder outcomes, which are economically profitable or not, in a commercial hatchery.

Keywords: classification models, egg weight, fertilised eggs, multiple linear regression

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Authors: Pavan K. Rallabandi, Kailash C. Patidar

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In this paper, we present an optimization technique or a learning algorithm using the hybrid architecture by combining the most popular sequence recognition models such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) and Hidden Markov models (HMMs). In order to improve the sequence or pattern recognition/ classification performance by applying a hybrid/neural symbolic approach, a gradient descent learning algorithm is developed using the Real Time Recurrent Learning of Recurrent Neural Network for processing the knowledge represented in trained Hidden Markov Models. The developed hybrid algorithm is implemented on automata theory as a sample test beds and the performance of the designed algorithm is demonstrated and evaluated on learning the deterministic finite state automata.

Keywords: hybrid systems, hidden markov models, recurrent neural networks, deterministic finite state automata

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Authors: Pedro M. Abreu, Bruno R. Mendes

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The management of pharmacotherapy and the process of dispensing medicines is becoming critical in clinical pharmacy due to the increase of incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, the complexity and customization of therapeutic regimens, the introduction of innovative and more expensive medicines, the unbalanced relation between expenditure and revenue as well as due to the lack of rationalization associated with medication use. For these reasons, co-payments emerged in Europe in the 70s and have been applied over the past few years in healthcare. Co-payments lead to a rationing and rationalization of user’s access under healthcare services and products, and simultaneously, to a qualification and improvement of the services and products for the end-user. This analysis, under hospital practices particularly and co-payment strategies in general, was carried out on all the European regions and identified four reference countries, that apply repeatedly this tool and with different approaches. The structure, content and adaptation of European co-payments were analyzed through 7 qualitative attributes and 19 performance indicators, and the results expressed in a scorecard, allowing to conclude that the German models (total score of 68,2% and 63,6% in both elected co-payments) can collect more compliance and effectiveness, the English models (total score of 50%) can be more accessible, and the French models (total score of 50%) can be more adequate to the socio-economic and legal framework. Other European models did not show the same quality and/or performance, so were not taken as a standard in the future design of co-payments strategies. In this sense, we can see in the co-payments a strategy not only to moderate the consumption of healthcare products and services, but especially to improve them, as well as a strategy to increment the value that the end-user assigns to these services and products, such as medicines.

Keywords: clinical pharmacy, co-payments, healthcare, medicines

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Hongyan Chen, Megan Jobson, Andrew J. Masters, Maria Gonzalez-Miquel, Simon Halstead, Mayri Diaz de Rienzo

Abstract:

Ionic liquids offer excellent advantages over conventional solvents for industrial extraction of metals from aqueous solutions, where such extraction processes bring opportunities for recovery, reuse, and recycling of valuable resources and more sustainable production pathways. Recent research on the use of ionic liquids for extraction confirms their high selectivity and low volatility, but there is relatively little focus on how their properties can be best exploited in practice. This work addresses gaps in research on process modelling and simulation, to support development, design, and optimisation of these processes, focusing on the separation of the highly similar transition metals, cobalt, and nickel. The study exploits published experimental results, as well as new experimental results, relating to the separation of Co and Ni using trihexyl (tetradecyl) phosphonium chloride. This extraction agent is attractive because it is cheaper, more stable and less toxic than fluorinated hydrophobic ionic liquids. This process modelling work concerns selection and/or development of suitable models for the physical properties, distribution coefficients, for mass transfer phenomena, of the extractor unit and of the multi-stage extraction flowsheet. The distribution coefficient model for cobalt and HCl represents an anion exchange mechanism, supported by the literature and COSMO-RS calculations. Parameters of the distribution coefficient models are estimated by fitting the model to published experimental extraction equilibrium results. The mass transfer model applies Newman’s hard sphere model. Diffusion coefficients in the aqueous phase are obtained from the literature, while diffusion coefficients in the ionic liquid phase are fitted to dynamic experimental results. The mass transfer area is calculated from the surface to mean diameter of liquid droplets of the dispersed phase, estimated from the Weber number inside the extractor. New experiments measure the interfacial tension between the aqueous and ionic phases. The empirical models for predicting the density and viscosity of solutions under different metal loadings are also fitted to new experimental data. The extractor is modelled as a continuous stirred tank reactor with mass transfer between the two phases and perfect phase separation of the outlet flows. A multistage separation flowsheet simulation is set up to replicate a published experiment and compare model predictions with the experimental results. This simulation model is implemented in gPROMS software for dynamic process simulation. The results of single stage and multi-stage flowsheet simulations are shown to be in good agreement with the published experimental results. The estimated diffusion coefficient of cobalt in the ionic liquid phase is in reasonable agreement with published data for the diffusion coefficients of various metals in this ionic liquid. A sensitivity study with this simulation model demonstrates the usefulness of the models for process design. The simulation approach has potential to be extended to account for other metals, acids, and solvents for process development, design, and optimisation of extraction processes applying ionic liquids for metals separations, although a lack of experimental data is currently limiting the accuracy of models within the whole framework. Future work will focus on process development more generally and on extractive separation of rare earths using ionic liquids.

Keywords: distribution coefficient, mass transfer, COSMO-RS, flowsheet simulation, phosphonium

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Authors: Fadi Eleiwi, Taous Meriem Laleg-Kirati

Abstract:

This paper presents a complete dynamic modeling of a membrane distillation process. The model contains two consistent dynamic models. A 2D advection-diffusion equation for modeling the whole process and a modified heat equation for modeling the membrane itself. The complete model describes the temperature diffusion phenomenon across the feed, membrane, permeate containers and boundary layers of the membrane. It gives an online and complete temperature profile for each point in the domain. It explains heat conduction and convection mechanisms that take place inside the process in terms of mathematical parameters, and justify process behavior during transient and steady state phases. The process is monitored for any sudden change in the performance at any instance of time. In addition, it assists maintaining production rates as desired, and gives recommendations during membrane fabrication stages. System performance and parameters can be optimized and controlled using this complete dynamic model. Evolution of membrane boundary temperature with time, vapor mass transfer along the process, and temperature difference between membrane boundary layers are depicted and included. Simulations were performed over the complete model with real membrane specifications. The plots show consistency between 2D advection-diffusion model and the expected behavior of the systems as well as literature. Evolution of heat inside the membrane starting from transient response till reaching steady state response for fixed and varying times is illustrated.

Keywords: membrane distillation, dynamical modeling, advection-diffusion equation, thermal equilibrium, heat equation

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Authors: Farrukh Javed, Krzysztof Podgórski

Abstract:

We propose a new model that accounts for the asymmetric response of volatility to positive ('good news') and negative ('bad news') shocks in economic time series the so-called leverage effect. In the past, asymmetric powers of errors in the conditionally heteroskedastic models have been used to capture this effect. Our model is using the gamma difference representation of the generalized Laplace distributions that efficiently models the asymmetry. It has one additional natural parameter, the shape, that is used instead of power in the asymmetric power models to capture the strength of a long-lasting effect of shocks. Some fundamental properties of the model are provided including the formula for covariances and an explicit form for the conditional distribution of 'bad' and 'good' news processes given the past the property that is important for the statistical fitting of the model. Relevant features of volatility models are illustrated using S&P 500 historical data.

Keywords: heavy tails, volatility clustering, generalized asymmetric laplace distribution, leverage effect, conditional heteroskedasticity, asymmetric power volatility, GARCH models

Procedia PDF Downloads 385