Search results for: production distribution scenario

Authors: Z. Babic, I. Veza, A. Balic, M. Crnjac

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The linear programming model is sometimes difficult to apply in real business situations due to its assumption of proportionality. This paper shows an example of how to use De Novo programming approach instead of linear programming. In the De Novo programming, resources are not fixed like in linear programming but resource quantities depend only on available budget. Budget is a new, important element of the De Novo approach. Two different production situations are presented: increasing costs and quantity discounts of raw materials. The focus of this paper is on advantages of the De Novo approach in the optimization of production plan for production company which produces souvenirs made from famous stone from the island of Brac, one of the greatest islands from Croatia.

Keywords: business process, De Novo programming, optimizing, production

Procedia PDF Downloads 216

Authors: Alam Anshary, Flora Pasaru, Shahabuddin

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The Cocoa Pod Borer (CPB), Conopomorpha cramerella (Snell.) is present on most of the larger cocoa producing islands in Indonesia. Various control measures CPB has been carried out by the farmers, but the results have not been effective. This study aims to determine the effect of application of Beauveria bassiana treatments and pruning technique to the control of CPB in the cocoa plantation people. Research using completely randomized design with 4 treatments and 3 replications, treatment consists of B.bassiana, Pruning, B. bassiana+pruning (Bb + Pr), as well as the control. The results showed that the percentage of PBK attack on cocoa pods in treatment (Bb + Pr) 3.50% the lowest compared to other treatments. CPB attack percentage in treatment B.bassiana 6.15%; pruning 8.75%, and 15.20% control. Results of the analysis of production estimates, the known treatments (Bb + Pr) have the highest production (1.95 tonnes / ha). The model results estimated production is Y= 0,20999 + 0,53968X1 + 0,34298X2+ 0,31410X3 + 0,35629X4 + 0,08345X5 + 0,29732X6. Farm production costs consist of fixed costs and variable costs, fixed costs are costs incurred by the farmer that the size does not affect the results, such as taxes and depreciation of production equipment. Variable costs are costs incurred by farmers who used up in one year cocoa farming activities. The cost of production in farming cocoa without integrated techniques control of CPB is Rp. 9.205.550 million/ha, while the cost of production with integrated techniques control is Rp. 6.666.050 million/ha.

Keywords: cacao, cocoa pod borer, pruning, Beauveria bassiana, production costs

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Authors: Amir Lotfi, Seyed Hamid Hosseini

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During the recent past, due to the increase of electrical energy demand and governmental resources constraints in creating additional capacity in the generation, transmission, and distribution, privatization, and restructuring in electrical industry have been considered. So, in most of the countries, different parts of electrical industry like generation, transmission, and distribution have been separated in order to create competition. Considering these changes, environmental issues, energy growth, investment of private equity in energy generation units and difficulties of transmission lines expansion, distributed generation (DG) units have been used in power systems. Moreover, reduction in the need for transmission and distribution, the increase of reliability, improvement of power quality, and reduction of power loss have caused DG to be placed in power systems. On the other hand, considering low liquidity need, private investors tend to spend their money for DGs. In this project, the main goal is to offer an algorithm for planning and placing DGs in order to reduce the need for transmission and distribution network.

Keywords: planning, transmission, distributed generation, power security, power systems

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Authors: Khalifa Abdunaser, Salem Eljawashi

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Study area is threatened by numerous petroleum activities. The most important risk is associated with dramatic dangers of misuse and oil and gas pollutions, such as significant volumes of produced water, which refers to waste water generated during the production of oil and natural gas and disposed on the surface surrounded oil and gas fields. This work concerns the impact of oil exploration and production activities on the physical and environment fate of the area, focusing on the investigation and observation of crude oil migration as toxic fluid. Its penetration in groundwater resulted from the produced water impacted by oilfield operations disposed to the earth surface in Al Wahat area. Describing the areal distribution of the dominant groundwater quality constituents has been conducted to identify the major hydro-geochemical processes that affect the quality of water and to evaluate the relations between rock types and groundwater flow to the quality and geochemistry of water in Post-Eocene aquifer. The chemical and physical characteristics of produced water, where it is produced, and its potential impacts on the environment and on oil and gas operations have been discussed. Field work survey was conducted to identify and locate a large number of monitoring wells previously drilled throughout the study area. Groundwater samples were systematically collected in order to detect the fate of spills resulting from the various activities at the oil fields in the study area. Spatial distribution maps of the water quality parameters were built using Kriging methods of interpolation in ArcMap software. Thematic maps were generated using GIS and remote sensing techniques, which were applied to include all these data layers as an active database for the area for the purpose of identifying hot spots and prioritizing locations based on their environmental conditions as well as for monitoring plans.

Keywords: Sirt Basin, produced water, Al Wahat area, Ground water

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: M. T. Alodat

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In this paper, we propose a generalization to the Gaussian process regression(GPR) model called the extended skew Gaussian process for regression(ESGPr) model. The ESGPR model works better than the GPR model when the errors are skewed. We derive the predictive distribution for the ESGPR model at a new input. Also we apply the ESGPR model to FOREX data and we find that it fits the Forex data better than the GPR model.

Keywords: extended skew normal distribution, Gaussian process for regression, predictive distribution, ESGPr model

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Authors: Fátima R. Zan, Daniela C. Guimarães, Rosângela O. Soares, Suzana L. Russo

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The wine until it reaches the consumer has a long way to go, from planting the wine to the bottling and the placing on the market, bringing many years of experimentation, and through several generations to have recognition for quality and excellence. The winemaking grew dramatically and are today many brands, including the associated locations, demonstrating their origin and cultural order that is associated with their production. The production, circulation and marketing of wines and products of grape and wine in Brazil is regulated by Law 7.678/88, amended by Law 10970/04, and adjusting the legislation to Regulation Wine Mercosur. This study was based on a retrospective study, and aimed to identify and characterize the modalities of industrial property used in wine production in Brazil. The wineries were selected from the 2014 ranking list, drawn up by the World Association of Journalists and Writers of Wines and Spirits (WAWWJ). The results show that the registration with INPI, regarding Patents, Trademarks, Industrial Designs and Geographical Indications, is not used by the wineries analyzed.

Keywords: counterfeiting, industrial property, protection, wine production

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Authors: Hyungoo Kang, Minsung Kim, Jinkoo Kim

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This study investigates the performance of a 2D and 3D steel moment frame subjected to vehicle collision at a first story column using LS-DYNA. The finite element models of vehicles provided by the National Crash Analysis Center (NCAC) are used for numerical analysis. Nonlinear dynamic time history analysis of the 2D and 3D model structures are carried out based on the arbitrary column removal scenario, and the vertical displacement of the damaged structures are compared with that obtained from collision analysis. The analysis results show that the model structure remains stable when the speed of the vehicle is 40km/h. However, at the speed of 80 and 120km/h both the 2D and 3D structures collapse by progressive collapse. The vertical displacement of the damaged joint obtained from collision analysis is significantly larger than the displacement computed based on the arbitrary column removal scenario.

Keywords: vehicle collision, progressive collapse, FEM, LS-DYNA

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Authors: P. M. Fonseca Alfonso, E. A. Murillo Ruiz, M. Diaz Lagos

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Understanding the physicochemical properties and mineralogy of fly ash from a particular source is essential for to protect the environment and considering its possible applications, specifically, in the production of geopolymeric materials that solidify/stabilize heavy metals ions. The results of the characterization of three fly ash samples are shown in this paper. The samples were produced in the TERMOPAIPA IV thermal power plant in the State of Boyaca, Colombia. The particle size distribution, chemical composition, mineralogy, and molecular structure of three samples were analyzed using laser diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, X-ray diffraction, and infrared spectroscopy respectively. The particle size distribution of the three samples probably ranges from 0.128 to 211 μm. Approximately 59 elements have been identified in the three samples. It is noticeable that the ashes are made up of aluminum and silicon compounds. Besides, the iron phase in low content was also found. According to the results found in this study, the fly ash samples type F has a great potential to be used as raw material for the manufacture of geopolymers with potential use in the stabilization/solidification of heavy metals; mainly due to the presence of amorphous aluminosilicates typical of this type of ash, which react effectively with alkali-activator.

Keywords: fly ash, geopolymers, molecular structure, physicochemical properties.

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Authors: Sorour Semsari Parapari, Mehmet Ali Gülgün, Melih Papila

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Cement production is one of the most energy-intensive processes consuming a high amount of thermal energy. Nowadays, alternative fuels are being used in cement manufacturing in a large scale as a help to provide the necessary energy. The alternative fuels could consist of any disposal like waste plastics, used tires and biomass. It has been suggested that the clinker properties might be affected by using these fuels because of foreign elements incorporation to the composition. Studying the distribution of clinker phases and their chemical composition is possible with scanning electron microscopy (SEM). In this study, clinker samples were produced using different alternative fuels in cement firing kilns. The microstructural observations by back-scattered electrons (BSE) mode in SEM (JEOL JSM-6010LV) showed that the clinker phase distribution was dissimilar in samples prepared with different alternative fuels. The alite to belite (a/b) phase content of samples was quantified by image analysis. The results showed that the a/b varied between 5.2 and 1.5 among samples as the average value for six clinker nodules. The elemental analysis by energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) mounted on SEM indicated the variation in chemical composition among samples. Higher amounts of sulfur and alkalis seemed to reduce the alite phase formation in clinkers.

Keywords: alternative fuels, cement clinker, microstructure, SEM

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Abdul Wakeel, Hafeez Ur Rehman, Muhammad Umair Mubarak

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Rice is the second most important staple food in Pakistan after wheat. It is not only a healthy food for the people of all age groups but also a source of foreign exchange for Pakistan. Instead of bright history for Basmati rice production, we are suffering from multiple problems reducing yield and quality as well. Rice lodging and water shortage for an-aerobic rice production system is among major glitches of it. Due to water shortage an-aerobic rice production system has to be supplemented or replaced by aerobic rice system. Aerobic rice system has been adopted for production of non-basmati rice in many parts of the world. Also for basmati rice, significant efforts have been made for aerobic rice production, however still has to be improved for effective recommendations. Among two major issues for aerobic rice, weed elimination has been solved to great extent by introducing suitable herbicides, however, low yield production due weak grains and panicle sterility is still elusive. It has been reported that potassium (K) has significant role to decrease panicle sterility in cereals. Potassium deficiency is obvious for rice under aerobic rice production system due to lack of K gradient coming with irrigation water and lowered indigenous K release from soils. Therefore it was hypothesized that K application under aerobic rice production system may improve the rice yield by decreasing panicle sterility. Results from pot and field experiments confirm that application of K fertilizer significantly increased the rice grain yield due to decreased panicle sterility and improving grain health. The quality of rice was also improved by K fertilization.

Keywords: DSR, Basmati rice, aerobic, potassium

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Authors: A. W. Zularisam, Sveta Thakur, Lakhveer Singh, Mimi Sakinah Abdul Munaim

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Clostridium sp. LS2 was immobilised by entrapment in polyethylene glycol (PEG) gel beads to improve the biohydrogen production rate from palm oil mill effluent (POME). We sought to explore and optimise the hydrogen production capability of the immobilised cells by studying the conditions for cell immobilisation, including PEG concentration, cell loading and curing times, as well as the effects of temperature and K2HPO4 (500–2000 mg/L), NiCl2 (0.1–5.0 mg/L), FeCl2 (100–400 mg/L) MgSO4 (50–200 mg/L) concentrations on hydrogen production rate. The results showed that by optimising the PEG concentration (10% w/v), initial biomass (2.2 g dry weight), curing time (80 min) and temperature (37 °C), as well as the concentrations of K2HPO4 (2000 mg/L), NiCl2 (1 mg/L), FeCl2 (300 mg/L) and MgSO4 (100 mg/L), a maximum hydrogen production rate of 7.3 L/L-POME/day and a yield of 0.31 L H2/g chemical oxygen demand were obtained during continuous operation. We believe that this process may be potentially expanded for sustained and large-scale hydrogen production.

Keywords: hydrogen, polyethylene glycol, immobilised cell, fermentation, palm oil mill effluent

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Authors: Marziyeh Khavari

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In recent decades, climate change, global warming, and the growing population worldwide face some challenges, such as increasing food consumption and shortage of resources. Assessing how climate change could disturb crops, especially hazelnut production, seems crucial for sustainable agriculture production. For hazelnut cultivation in the mid-warm condition, such as in Iran, here we present an investigation of climate parameters and how much they are effective on fertility and nut production of hazelnut trees. Therefore, the climate change of the northern zones in Iran has investigated (1960-2017) and was reached an uptrend in temperature. Furthermore, the descriptive analysis performed on six cultivars during seven years shows how this small-scale survey could demonstrate the effects of climate change on hazelnut production and stability. Results showed that some climate parameters are more significant on nut production, such as solar radiation, soil temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation. Moreover, some cultivars have produced more stable production, for instance, Negret and Segorbe, while the Mervill de Boliver recorded the most variation during the study. Another aspect that needs to be met is training and predicting an actual model to simulate nut production through a neural network and linear regression simulation. The study developed and estimated the ANN model's generalization capability with different criteria such as RMSE, SSE, and accuracy factors for dependent and independent variables (environmental and yield traits). The models were trained and tested while the accuracy of the model is proper to predict hazelnut production under fluctuations in weather parameters.

Keywords: climate change, neural network, hazelnut, global warming

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Authors: Serge Provost, Yishan Zang

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Following a review of various approaches that are utilized for classifying the tail behavior of a distribution, an easily implementable methodology that relies on an arctangent transformation is presented. The classification criterion is actually based on the difference between two specific quantiles of the transformed distribution. The resulting categories enable one to classify distributional tails as distinctly short, short, nearly medium, medium, extended medium and somewhat long, providing that at least two moments exist. Distributions possessing a single moment are said to be long tailed while those failing to have any finite moments are classified as having an extremely long tail. Several illustrative examples will be presented.

Keywords: arctangent transformation, tail classification, heavy-tailed distributions, distributional moments

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Authors: Ene Rosemary Ndidiamaka, Nwangwu Florence Chinyere

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The physiochemical properties of the melon seed oil was studied to determine its potentials as viable feed stock for biodisel production. The melon seed was extracted by solvent extraction using n-hexane as the extracting solvent. In this research, methanol was the alcohol used in the production of biodiesel, although alcohols like ethanol, propanol may also be used. Sodium hydroxide was employed for the catalysis. The melon seed oil was characterized for specific gravity, pH, ash content, iodine value, acid value, saponification value, peroxide value, free fatty acid value, flash point, viscosity, and refractive index using standard methods. The melon seed oil had very high oil content. Specific gravity and flash point of the oil is satisfactory. However, moisture content of the oil exceeded the stipulated ASRTM standard for biodiesel production. The overall results indicates that the melon seed oil is suitable for single-stage transesterification process to biodiesel production.

Keywords: biodiesel, catalyst, melon seed, transesterification

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Authors: Hamed Sarbazy, Zohre Gholipour Haftkhani, Ali Safari, Pejman Hosseiniun

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Scientific and industrial progress in the past two decades has resulted in energy distribution systems based on power electronics, as an enabling technology in various industries and building management systems can be considered. Grading and standardization module power electronics systems and its use in a distributed control system, a strategy for overcoming the limitations of using this system. The purpose of this paper is to investigate strategies for scheduling and control structure of standard modules is a power electronic systems. This paper introduces the classical control methods and disadvantages of these methods will be discussed, The hierarchical control as a mechanism for distributed control structure of the classification module explains. The different levels of control and communication between these levels are fully introduced. Also continue to standardize software distribution system control structure is discussed. Finally, as an example, the control structure will be presented in a DC distribution system.

Keywords: application management, hardware management, power electronics, building blocks

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Authors: Tobias Wissing, Peter Burggräf, Johannes Wagner

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Cost pressure, competitiveness and the increasing turbulence of globalized saturated markets has been the driver for a variety of research activities in the field of production planning and control (PPC) during the past decades. For some time past an increasing awareness for innovative technologies in terms of Industry 4.0 can be noticed. Although there are many promising approaches a solely installation of those smart solutions will not maximize the PPC performance. To accelerate the successful digital transformation the cooperation between employee and technology also has to be adapted. The existing processes and organizational structures might be not sufficient to maximize the utilization of technological innovations. This paper presents the key results of an extensive study which was conducted by the Laboratory for Machine Tools and Production Engineering (WZL) of the RWTH Aachen University to evaluate the current situation and examine the organizational readiness for this digital transformation.

Keywords: cyber-physical production system, digital transformation, industry 4.0, production planning and control

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Authors: Ruedee Niyomrath

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This research aimed at surveying the local red clay raw material sources in Samut Songkram province, Thailand to test the physical and chemical properties of the local red clay, including to find the approach to develop the local red clay properties for ceramic production. The findings of this research would be brought to apply in the ceramic production industry of the country all at the upstream level which was the community in the raw material source, at the mid water level which was the ceramic producer and at the downstream level which was the distributor and the consumer as well as the community producer who would apply them to their identity and need of the community business.

Keywords: chemical properties of red clay, physical properties of red clay, ceramic production, red clay product

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Authors: Diya Alsafadi, Fawwaz Khalili, Mohammad W. Amer

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Butanol is an important industrial solvent and potentially a better liquid transportation biofuel than ethanol. The cost of feedstock is one key problem associated with the biobutanol production. Date palm is sugar-rich fruit and highly abundant. Thousands of tons of date wastes that generated from date processing industries are thrown away each year and imposing serious environmental problems. To exploit the utilization of renewable biomass feedstock, date palm waste was utilized for butanol production by Clostridium acetobutylicum DSM 1731. Fermentation conditions were optimized by investigating several parameters that affect the production of butanol such as temperature, substrate concentration and pH. The highest butanol yield (1.0 g/L) and acetone, butanol, and ethanol (ABE) content (1.3 g/L) were achieved at 20 g/L date waste, pH 5.0 and 37 °C. These results suggest that date palm waste can be used for biobutanol production.

Keywords: biofuel, acetone-butanol-ethanol fermentation, date palm waste, Clostridium acetobutylicum

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Authors: Isaac Samuel

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A study was conducted to determine the in-vitro degradation of selected Nigerian browse plants consumed by small ruminants on free range in northern guinea savannah region of Nigeria using in vitro gas production, proximate composition, fibre components, methane gas production and dry matter degradation as tools. The leaves samples of the selected browse plants were collected, processed and incubated using in vitro gas dry matter degradation techniques. Results obtained showed variation in the rate of degradation. The result obtained from chemical analysis showed that the CP content of A. occidentale (26.49%) was higher than F. thonningi (23.58%), M. indica (20.58%) and T. catappa (18.61%). Both ADF and NDF of A. occidentale (40.00 and 50.00) were as well higher than F. thonningi (20.00 and 40.00), M. indica (20.00 and 40.00) and T.catappa (20.00 and 42.00). Results from in vitro gas production however showed that T. catappa (23.67ml/DM) has a significantly higher (p<0.05) value than F.thonningi (20.67ml/DM), A. occidentale (16.67ml/DM), and M. indica(14.00ml/DM) at 72 hours of incubation. Methane gas production and in vitro gas production can be used to predict dry matter degradation and nutritive value of feedstuff for small ruminants. A. occidentale with the least methane gas production and highest crude protein (CP) content might have the most nutritive value among the browse plants investigated.

Keywords: in vitro, degradation, browse, gas production

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Authors: Robel Habtemariam

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Globally, wind energy and photovoltaics (PV) solar energy are among the leading renewable energy sources (RES) in terms of installed capacity. In order to increase the contribution of RES to the power supply system, large scale energy integration is required, mainly due to wind energy and PV. In this paper, an investigation has been made on the electrical power supply systems of Taiwan and Greece in order to integrate high level of wind and photovoltaic (PV) to increase the penetration of renewable energy resources. Currently, both countries heavily depend on fossil fuels to meet the demand and to generate adequate electricity. Therefore, this study is carried out to look into the two cases power supply system by developing a methodology that includes major power units. To address the analysis, an approach for simulation of power systems is formulated and applied. The simulation is based on the non-dynamic analysis of the electrical system. This simulation results in calculating the energy contribution of different types of power units; namely the wind, PV, non-flexible and flexible power units. The calculation is done for three different scenarios (2020, 2030, & 2050), where the first two scenarios are based on national targets and scenario 2050 is a reflection of ambitious global targets. By 2030 in Taiwan, the input of the power units is evaluated as 4.3% (wind), 3.7% (PV), 65.2 (non-flexible), 25.3% (flexible), and 1.5% belongs to hydropower plants. In Greece, much higher renewable energy contribution is observed for the same scenario with 21.7% (wind), 14.3% (PV), 38.7% (non-flexible), 14.9% (flexible), and 10.3% (hydro). Moreover, it examines the ability of the power systems to deal with the variable nature of the wind and PV generation. For this reason, an investigation has also been done on the use of the combined wind power with pumped storage systems (WPS) to enable the system to exploit the curtailed wind energy & surplus PV and thus increase the wind and PV installed capacity and replace the peak supply by conventional power units. Results show that the feasibility of pumped storage can be justified in the high scenario (that is the scenario of 2050) of RES integration especially in the case of Greece.

Keywords: large scale energy integration, photovoltaics solar energy, pumped storage systems, renewable energy sources

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Authors: Andrey Norov

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Based on a comparison of technologies for the production of granular nitrate-containing and nitrate-free NPKS-fertilizers, this paper considers the effect of process parameters on the economic feasibility of production, on physical & chemical, and structural & mechanical properties and quality of final products (caking, static strength of granules, hygroscopicity, etc.), as well as on thermal stability of fertilizers, eco-friendly production, and other aspects. This comparative analysis allows to select the optimal technology for specific conditions and requirements. Additionally, the report considers flexible, a unique technology for the production of granular NPKS-fertilizers containing sulfur and calcium, suggested by Samoilov Research Institute for Mineral Fertilizers JSC “NIUIF” - the oldest industry-oriented institute in Russia. This technology is implemented at one of the Russian plants where combined drum is used for granulation and drying.

Keywords: caking, granule static strength, granulating-drying drum, NPKS-fertilizers

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Authors: Naime Boudemagh, Zoheir Hammoudi

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The parameters estimation of the K-distribution is an essential part in radar detection. In fact, presence of interfering targets in reference cells causes a decrease in detection performances. In such situation, the estimate of the shape and the scale parameters are far from the actual values. In the order to avoid interfering targets, we propose an Automatic Censoring (AC) algorithm of radar interfering targets in K-distribution. The censoring technique used in this work offers a good discrimination between homogeneous and non-homogeneous environments. The homogeneous population is then used to estimate the unknown parameters by the classical Method of Moment (MOM). The AC algorithm does not need any prior information about the clutter parameters nor does it require both the number and the position of interfering targets. The accuracy of the estimation parameters obtained by this algorithm are validated and compared to various actual values of the shape parameter, using Monte Carlo simulations, this latter show that the probability of censing in multiple target situations are in good agreement.

Keywords: parameters estimation, method of moments, automatic censoring, K distribution

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Authors: Rade M. Ciric

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The paper shows the development and implementation of the syllabus of the subject 'Distribution and Industrial Networks', attended by the vocational specialist Year 4 students of the Electric Power Engineering study programme at the Higher Education Technical School of Vocational Studies in Novi Sad. The aim of the subject is to equip students with the knowledge necessary for planning, exploitation and management of distributive and industrial electric power networks in an open electricity market environment. The results of the evaluation of educational outcomes on the subject are presented and discussed.

Keywords: engineering education, power distribution network, syllabus implementation, outcome evaluation

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda, Jiří F. Urbánek

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In this paper will be discussed two coin´s sides of crisis scenarios dynamics. On the one's side is negative role of subsidiary scenario branches in its compactness weakening by means unduly chaotic atomizing, having many interactive feedbacks cases, increasing a value of a complexity here. This negative role reflects the complexity of use cases, weakening leader compliancy, which brings something as a ´readiness for controlling capabilities provision´. Leader´s dissatisfaction has zero compliancy, but factual it is a ´crossbar´ (interface in fact) between planning and executing use cases. On the other side of this coin, an advantage of rich scenarios embranchment is possible to see in a support of response awareness, readiness, preparedness, adaptability, creativity and flexibility. Here rich scenarios embranchment contributes to the steadiness and resistance of scenario mission actors. These all will be presented in live power-points ´Blazons´, modelled via DYVELOP (Dynamic Vector Logistics of Processes) on the Conference.

Keywords: leadership, controlling, complexity, DYVELOP, scenarios

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Authors: V. Lukášová, P. Peukert, V. Votrubec

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Thermal conductivity in the x, y and z-directions was measured on a pultruded profile that was manufactured by the technology of pulling from glass fibers and a polyester matrix. The results of measurements of thermal conductivity showed considerable variability in different directions. The caused variability in thermal conductivity was expected due fraction variations. The cross-section of the pultruded profile was scanned. An image analysis illustrated an uneven distribution of the fibers and the matrix in the cross-section. The distribution of these inequalities was processed into a Voronoi diagram in the observed area of the pultruded profile cross-section. In order to verify whether the variation of the fiber volume fraction in the pultruded profile can affect its thermal conductivity, the numerical simulations in the ANSYS Fluent were performed. The simulation was based on the geometry reconstructed from image analysis. The aim is to quantify thermal conductivity numerically. Above all, images with different volume fractions were chosen. The results of the measured thermal conductivity were compared with the calculated thermal conductivity. The evaluated data proved a strong correlation between volume fraction and thermal conductivity of the pultruded profile. Based on presented results, a modification of production technology may be proposed.

Keywords: pultrusion profile, volume fraction, thermal conductivity, numerical simulation

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Authors: Brandon Foggo, Nanpeng Yu

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Power distribution circuits undergo frequent network topology changes that are often left undocumented. As a result, the documentation of a circuit’s connectivity becomes inaccurate with time. The lack of reliable circuit connectivity information is one of the biggest obstacles to model, monitor, and control modern distribution systems. To enhance the reliability and efficiency of electric power distribution systems, the circuit’s connectivity information must be updated periodically. This paper focuses on one critical component of a distribution circuit’s topology - the secondary transformer to phase association. This topology component describes the set of phase lines that feed power to a given secondary transformer (and therefore a given group of power consumers). Finding the documentation of this component is call Phase Identification, and is typically performed with physical measurements. These measurements can take time lengths on the order of several months, but with supervised learning, the time length can be reduced significantly. This paper compares several such methods applied to Phase Identification for a large range of real distribution circuits, describes a method of training data selection, describes preprocessing steps unique to the Phase Identification problem, and ultimately describes a method which obtains high accuracy (> 96% in most cases, > 92% in the worst case) using only 5% of the measurements typically used for Phase Identification.

Keywords: distribution network, machine learning, network topology, phase identification, smart grid

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Authors: Ana Staneva, Vessela Stoimenova

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A parametric estimation of the MBP with Power Series offspring distribution family is considered in this paper. The MLE for the parameters is obtained in the case when the observable data are incomplete and consist only with the generation sizes of the family tree of MBP. The parameter estimation is calculated by using the Monte Carlo EM algorithm. The estimation for the posterior distribution and for the offspring distribution parameters are calculated by using the Bayesian approach and the Gibbs sampler. The article proposes various examples with bivariate branching processes together with computational results, simulation and an implementation using R.

Keywords: Bayesian, branching processes, EM algorithm, Gibbs sampler, Monte Carlo methods, statistical estimation

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Authors: Mohamed K. Metwally, Sherif H. El-Gohary, Kyung Min Byun, Seung Moo Han, Soo Yeol Lee, Min Hyoung Cho, Gon Khang, Jinsung Cho, Tae-Seong Kim

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Photoacoustic imaging (PAI) is a non-invasive and non-ionizing imaging modality that combines the absorption contrast of light with ultrasound resolution. Laser is used to deposit optical energy into a target (i.e., optical fluence). Consequently, the target temperature rises, and then thermal expansion occurs that leads to generating a PA signal. In general, most image reconstruction algorithms for PAI assume uniform fluence within an imaging object. However, it is known that optical fluence distribution within the object is non-uniform. This could affect the reconstruction of PA images. In this study, we have investigated the influence of optical fluence distribution on PA back-propagation imaging using finite element method. The uniform fluence was simulated as a triangular waveform within the object of interest. The non-uniform fluence distribution was estimated by solving light propagation within a tissue model via Monte Carlo method. The results show that the PA signal in the case of non-uniform fluence is wider than the uniform case by 23%. The frequency spectrum of the PA signal due to the non-uniform fluence has missed some high frequency components in comparison to the uniform case. Consequently, the reconstructed image with the non-uniform fluence exhibits a strong smoothing effect.

Keywords: finite element method, fluence distribution, Monte Carlo method, photoacoustic imaging

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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