Search results for: climate scenario

Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

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The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

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Authors: Kristin Drexler

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Climate change has exacerbated food and livelihood insecurity for Mayan milpa farmers in Central America. For centuries, milpa farming has been sustainable for subsistence; however, in the last 50 years, milpas have become less reliable due to accelerating climate change, resource degradation, declining markets, poverty, and other factors. Using interviews with extension leaders and milpa farmers in Belize, this qualitative study examines the capacity for increasing climate-smart agriculture (CSA) aspects of existing traditional milpa practices, specifically no-burn mulching, soil enrichment, and the use of cover plants. Applying community capitals and socio-ecological systems frameworks, this study finds four key capitals were perceived by farmers and agriculture extension leaders as barriers for increasing CSA practices: (1) human-capacity, (2) financial, (3) infrastructure, and (4) governance-justice capitals. The key barriers include a lack of CSA technology and pest management knowledge-sharing (human-capacity), unreliable roads and utility services (infrastructure), the closure of small markets and crop-buying programs in Belize (financial), and constraints on extension services and exacerbating a sense of marginalization in Maya communities (governance-justice). Recommendations are presented for government action to reduce barriers and facilitate an increase in milpa crop productivity, promote food and livelihood security, and enable climate resilience of Mayan milpa communities in Belize.

Keywords: socio-ecological systems, community capitals, climate-smart agriculture, food security, milpa, Belize

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Authors: Cuong V Nguyen, Ralph Horne, John Fien, France Cheong

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Social vulnerability to climate change is increasingly being acknowledged, and proposals to measure and manage it are emerging. Building upon this work, this paper proposes an approach to social vulnerability assessment using a new mechanism to aggregate and account for causal relationships among components of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). To operationalize this index, the authors propose a means to develop an appropriate primary dataset, through application of a specifically-designed household survey questionnaire. The data collection and analysis, including calibration and calculation of the SVI is demonstrated through application in case study city in central coastal Vietnam. The calculation of SVI at the fine-grained local neighbourhood scale provides high resolution in vulnerability assessment, and also obviates the need for secondary data, which may be unavailable or problematic, particularly at the local scale in developing countries. The SVI household survey is underpinned by the results of a Delphi survey, an in-depth interview and focus group discussions with local environmental professionals and community members. The research reveals inherent limitations of existing SVIs but also indicates the potential for their use in assessing social vulnerability and making decisions associated with responding to climate change at the local scale.

Keywords: climate change, local scale, social vulnerability, social vulnerability index

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Authors: Ali Cheshmehzangi, Ayotunde Dawodu

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In urban planning, Floor Area Ratio (FAR) of the site plays a major role in the multiplicity of performances, from humane living environments to energy performance. When one considers the astounding volume of new housing that is going to be constructed across the globe during the next few decades due to growing urbanisation (e.g. particularly in developing world), it is imperative that we have an empirically grounded grasp of which building configurations are more energy efficient. As a common planning metric, it would be helpful to know exactly how managing FAR connects with energy efficiency. Hence, this study puts together a set of modelling of various FARs for a typical residential compound and address the considerations of energy planning integration in the practice of building configuration and urban planning. Such decision makings at the planning and design stage enable us to provide pathways of optimising urban climate at mesoscale of the built environment, i.e. the neighbourhood or community level. In this study, a comparative study is conducted using Eco-Tect Software, using a case study in the City of Ningbo, China. Findings of the study contribute to identifying scenarios of various FAR use and energy planning at mesoscale. The final results contribute to studies in urban climate, from the perspectives of urban planning, energy planning, and urban modelling.

Keywords: China, energy planning, FAR, floor-area-ratio, mesoscale, urban climate, urban modelling

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Authors: Tayib Bromand, Keisuke Sato

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This paper presents the introduction to current water balance and climate change assessment in the Kabul river basin. The historical and future impacts of climate change on different components of water resources and hydrology in the Kabul river basin. The eastern part of Afghanistan, the Kabul river basin was chosen due to rapid population growth and land degradation to quantify the potential influence of Gobal Climate Change on its hydrodynamic characteristics. Luck of observed meteorological data was the main limitation of present research, few existed precipitation stations in the plain area of Kabul basin selected to compare with TRMM precipitation records, the result has been evaluated satisfactory based on regression and normal ratio methods. So the TRMM daily precipitation and NCEP temperature data set applied in the SWAT model to evaluate water balance for 2008 to 2012. Middle of the twenty – first century (2064) selected as the target period to assess impacts of climate change on hydrology aspects in the Kabul river basin. For this purpose three emission scenarios, A2, A1B and B1 and four GCMs, such as MIROC 3.2 (Med), CGCM 3.1 (T47), GFDL-CM2.0 and CNRM-CM3 have been selected, to estimate the future initial conditions of the proposed model. The outputs of the model compared and calibrated based on (R2) satisfactory. The assessed hydrodynamic characteristics and precipitation pattern. The results show that there will be significant impacts on precipitation patter such as decreasing of snowfall in the mountainous area of the basin in the Winter season due to increasing of 2.9°C mean annual temperature and land degradation due to deforestation.

Keywords: climate change, emission scenarios, hydrological components, Kabul river basin, SWAT model

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Authors: Mathieu Hemono, Sophie Puig-Malet, Patrick Zylberman, Avner Bar-Hen, Rainer Sauerborn, Stefanie Schütte, Niamh Herlihi, Antoine Flahault et Anneliese Depoux

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Since the IPCC released its first report in 1990, an increasing number of peer-reviewed publications have reported the health risks associated with climate change. Although there is a large body of evidence supporting the association between climate change and poor health outcomes, the media is inconsistent in the attention it pays to the subject matter. This study aims to analyze the modalities and rhetoric in the media concerning the impact of climate change on health in order to better understand its role in information dissemination. A review was conducted of articles published between 1990 and 2015 in the francophone newspapers Le Monde and Jeune Afrique. A detailed search strategy including specific climate and health terminology was used to search the newspapers’ online databases. 1202 articles were identified as having referenced the terms climate change and health. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to narrow the search to articles referencing the effects of climate change on human health and 160 articles were included in the final analysis. Data was extracted and categorized to create a structured database allowing for further investigation and analysis. The review indicated that although 66% of the selected newspaper articles reference scientific evidence of the impact of climate change on human health, the focus on the topic is limited major political events or is circumstances relating to public health crises. Main findings also include that among the many direct and indirect health outcomes, infectious diseases are the main health outcome highlighted in association with climate change. Lastly, the articles suggest that while developed countries have caused most of the greenhouse effect, the global south is more immediately affected. Overall, the reviewed articles reinforce the need for international cooperation in finding a solution to mitigate the effects of climate change on health. The manner in which scientific results are communicated and disseminated, impact individual and collective perceptions of the topic in the public sphere and affect political will to shape policy. The results of this analysis will underline the modalities of the rhetoric of transparency and provide the basis for a perception study of media discourses. This study is part of an interdisciplinary project called 4CHealth that confronts results of the research done on scientific, political and press literature to better understand how the knowledge on climate changes and health circulates within those different fields and whether and how it is translated to real world change.

Keywords: climate change, health, health impacts, communication, media, rhetoric, awareness, Global South, Africa

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Authors: Dina H. Gabr, Mona A. El Bannan

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With growing worldwide concern for global warming, green finance has become the fuel that pushes the world to act in combating and mitigating climate change. Coupled with adopting the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, Green finance became a vital tool in creating a pathway to sustainable development, as it connects the financial world with environmental and societal benefits. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the concepts and definitions of green finance and the importance of 'green' impact investments today. The core challenge in combating climate change is reducing and controlling Greenhouse gas emissions; therefore, this study explores the solutions green finance provides putting emphasis on the use of renewable energy, which is necessary for enhancing the transition to the green economy. With increasing attention to the concept of green finance, multiple forms of green investments and financial tools have come to fruition; the most prominent are green bonds. The rise of green bonds, a debt market to finance climate solutions, provide a promising mechanism for sustainable finance. Following the review, this paper compiles a comprehensive green bond dataset, presenting a statistical study of the evolution of the green bonds market from its first appearance in 2006 until 2021.

Keywords: climate change, GHG emissions, green bonds, green finance, sustainable finance

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Authors: Stanislovas Buteliauskas, Aušrius Juozapavičius

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City road transport contributes significantly to climate change, and the ongoing world urbanization is only increasing the problem. The paper describes a city planning concept minimizing the number of vehicles on the roads while increasing overall mobility. This becomes possible by utilizing a recently invented two-level road junction with a unique property of serving both as an intersection of uninterrupted traffic and an easily accessible transport hub capable of accumulating private vehicles, and therefore becoming an especially effective park-and-ride solution, and a logistics or business center. Optimized layouts of city road infrastructure, living and work areas, and major roads are presented. The layouts are suitable both for the development of new cities as well as for the expansion of existing ones. Costs of the infrastructure and a positive impact on climate are evaluated in comparison to current city growth patterns.

Keywords: congestion, city infrastructure, park-and-ride, road junctions

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Authors: Martial Amou

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This study was carried out to assess the situation of households’ livelihood under a changing climate pattern in the Zio district of Togo, West Africa. The study examined three important aspects: (i) assessment of households’ livelihood situation under a changing climate pattern, (ii) farmers’ perception and understanding of local climate change, (iii) determinants of adaptation strategies undertaken in cropping pattern to climate change. To this end, secondary sources of data, and survey data collected from 235 farmers in four villages in the study area were used. Adapted conceptual framework from Sustainable Livelihood Framework of DFID, two steps Binary Logistic Regression Model and descriptive statistics were used in this study as methodological approaches. Based on Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA), various factors revolving around the livelihoods of the rural community were grouped into social, natural, physical, human, and financial capital. Thus, the study came up that households’ livelihood situation represented by the overall livelihood index in the study area (34%) is below the standard average households’ livelihood security index (50%). The natural capital was found as the poorest asset (13%) and this will severely affect the sustainability of livelihood in the long run. The result from descriptive statistics and the first step regression (selection model) indicated that most of the farmers in the study area have clear understanding of climate change even though they do not have any idea about greenhouse gases as the main cause behind the issue. From the second step regression (output model) result, education, farming experience, access to credit, access to extension services, cropland size, membership of a social group, distance to the nearest input market, were found to be the significant determinants of adaptation measures undertaken in cropping pattern by farmers in the study area. Based on the result of this study, recommendations are made to farmers, policy makers, institutions, and development service providers in order to better target interventions which build, promote or facilitate the adoption of adaptation measures with potential to build resilience to climate change and then improve rural livelihood.

Keywords: climate change, rural livelihood, cropping pattern, adaptation, Zio District

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Authors: Dorota M. Michalak

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The agricultural sector, due to the growing demand for food and over-exploitation of the natural environment, contributes to the deepening of climate change, on the one hand, and on the other hand, shrinking freshwater resources, as a negative effect of climate change, threaten the food security of each country. Therefore, adaptation measures to climate change should take into account effective water management and seek solutions ensuring food production at an unchanged or higher level, while not burdening the environment and not contributing to the worsening of the negative consequences of climate change. The problems of Poland's water management result not only from relatively small, natural water resources but to a large extent on the low efficiency of their use. Appropriate agricultural practices and state solutions in this field can contribute to achieving significant benefits in terms of economical water management in agriculture, providing a greater amount of water that could also be used for other purposes, including for purposes related to environmental protection. The aim of the article is to determine the level of use of water resources in Polish agriculture and the advancement of measures aimed at adapting Polish agriculture in the field of water management to climate change. The study provides knowledge about Polish legal regulations and water management tools, the shaping of water policy of Polish agriculture against the background of EU countries and other sources of energy, and measures supporting Polish agricultural holdings in the effective management of water resources run by state budget institutions. In order to achieve the above-mentioned goals, the author used research tools such as the analysis of existing sources and a survey conducted among five groups of entities, i.e. agricultural advisory centers and departments, agricultural, rural and environmental protection departments, regional water management boards, provincial agricultural chambers and restructuring and modernization of agriculture. The main conclusion of the analyses carried out is the low use of water in Polish agriculture in relation to other EU countries, other sources of intake in Poland, as well as irrigation. The analysis allows us to observe another problem, which is the lack of reporting and data collection, which is extremely important from the point of view of the effectiveness of adaptation measures to climate change. The results obtained from the survey indicate a very low level of support for government institutions in the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change and the water management of Polish farms. Some of the basic problems of the adaptation policy to change climate with regard to water management in Polish agriculture include a lack of knowledge regarding climate change, the possibilities of adapting, the available tools or ways to rationalize the use of water resources. It also refers to the lack of ordering procedures and the separation of responsibility with a proper territorial unit, non-functioning channels of information flow and practically low effects.

Keywords: water management, adaptation policy, agriculture, climate change

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Authors: Messay Mulugeta, Degefa Tolossa

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The purpose of this paper is to scrutinize trends of climate risks in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. This part of the country appears severely affected by recurrent droughts, erratic rainfall, and increasing temperature condition. Particularly, erratic rains and moisture stresses have been forcibly threatening and shoving the people over many decades coupled with unproductive policy frameworks and weak institutional setups. These menaces have been more severe in dry lowlands where rainfall is more erratic and scarce. Long-term climate data of nine weather stations in eastern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia were obtained from National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia (NMA). As issues related to climate risks are very intricate, different techniques and indices were applied to deal with the objectives of the study. It is concluded that erratic rainfall, moisture scarcity, and increasing temperature conditions have been the main challenges in eastern and southeastern Ethiopia. In fact, these risks can be eased by putting in place efficient and integrated rural development strategies, environmental rehabilitation plans of action in overworked areas, proper irrigation and water harvesting practices and well thought-out and genuine resettlement schemes.

Keywords: rainfall variability, erratic rains, precipitation concentration index (PCI), climatic pattern, Ethiopia

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Authors: Ehsan Asgari, Meisam Afazeli, Nezhla Attarchian

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Post-earthquake fire is considered as a major threat in seismic areas. After an earthquake, fire is possible in structures. In this research, the effect of post-earthquake fire on steel moment frames with and without fireproofing coating is investigated. For this purpose, finite element method is employed. For the verification of finite element results, the results of an experimental study carried out by previous researchers are used, and the predicted FE results are compared with the test results, and good agreement is observed. After ensuring the accuracy of the predictions of finite element models, the effect of post-earthquake fire on the frames is investigated taking into account the parameters including the presence or absence of fire protection, frame design assumptions, earthquake type and different fire scenario. Ordinary fire and post-earthquake fire effect on the frames is also studied. The plastic hinges induced by earthquake in the structure are determined in the beam to the column connection and in panel zone. These areas should be accurately considered when providing fireproofing coatings. The results of the study show that the occurrence of fire beside corner columns is the most damaging scenario that results in progressive collapse of structure. It was also concluded that the behavior of structure in fire after a strong ground motion is significantly different from that in a normal fire.

Keywords: post earthquake fire, moment frame, finite element simulation, coupled temperature-displacement analysis, fire scenario

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Authors: Roozbeh Kardooni, Ahmad Hossein Meidari, Sumiani Binti Yusoff, Fatimah Binti Kari,

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The public opinion on environmental issue was analyzed by means of a survey implemented in Kedah located in the northwestern part of Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia). This work explores public opinions regarding environmental issue such as climate change, green technology and renewable energy in Kedah. Probability sampling and a stratified technique were used to conduct a survey with subjects aged 20 years and over with higher education qualifications. The results shows that the level of concern regarding climate change in Kedah is high and majority of Kedah citizens are concerned about climate change and have heard about green technology. However, only 40% people in this city have used green products. The findings of this study also show that percent use of green products is highest among those who are familiar with such products. It is apparent from study finding that economic barriers and non-economic barriers both play a role in impeding the development of renewable energy policies in Kedah. This finding can be explained by the high price of renewable energy products, lack of knowledge about government policies, and ineffective programs and initiatives.

Keywords: public opinion, climate change, green technology, Kedah

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Authors: Aparna Radhakrishnan, Jancy Gupta, R. Dileepkumar

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This paper aims at assessing the Socio Economic Vulnerability (SEV) of dairy farmers to Climate Variability and Change (CVC) in 3 states of Western Ghat region in India. For this purpose, a composite SEV index has been developed on the basis of functional relationships amongst sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity using 30 indicators related to dairy farming underlying the principles of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Fussel framework for nomenclature of vulnerable situation. Household level data were collected through Participatory Rural Appraisal and personal interviews of 540 dairy farmers of nine taluks, three each from a district selected from Kerala, Karnataka and Maharashtra, complemented by thirty years of gridded weather data. The data were normalized and then combined into three indices for sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity, which were then averaged with weights given using principal component analysis, to obtain the overall SEV index. Results indicated that the taluks of Western Ghats are vulnerable to CVC. The dairy farmers of Pulpally taluka were most vulnerable having the SEV score +1.24 and 42.66% farmers under high-level vulnerability category. Even though the taluks are geographically closer, there is wide variation in SEV components. Policies for incentivizing the ‘climate risk adaptation’ costs for small and marginal farmers and livelihood infrastructure for mitigating risks and promoting grass root level innovations are necessary to sustain dairy farming of the region.

Keywords: climate change, dairy, vulnerability, livelihoods, adaptation strategies

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Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

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The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

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Authors: Khuram Nawaz Sadozai, Rizwan Ahmad, Munawar Raza Kazmi, Awais Habib

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Climate change and crop production are intrinsically associated with each other. Therefore, this research study is designed to assess the impact of climate change on pulses production in Southern districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Province of Pakistan. Two pulses (i.e. chickpea and mung bean) were selected for this research study with respect to climate change. Climatic variables such as temperature, humidity and precipitation along with pulses production and area under cultivation of pulses were encompassed as the major variables of this study. Secondary data of climatic variables and crop variables for the period of thirty four years (1986-2020) were obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department and Agriculture Statistics of KP respectively. Panel data set of chickpea and mung bean crops was estimated separately. The analysis validate that both data sets were a balanced panel data. The Hausman specification test was run separately for both the panel data sets whose findings had suggested the fixed effect model can be deemed as an appropriate model for chickpea panel data, however random effect model was appropriate for estimation of the panel data of mung bean. Major findings confirm that maximum temperature is statistically significant for the chickpea yield. This implies if maximum temperature increases by 1 0C, it can enhance the chickpea yield by 0.0463 units. However, the impact of precipitation was reported insignificant. Furthermore, the humidity was statistically significant and has a positive association with chickpea yield. In case of mung bean the minimum temperature was significantly contributing in the yield of mung bean. This study concludes that temperature and humidity can significantly contribute to enhance the pulses yield. It is recommended that capacity building of pulses growers may be made to adapt the climate change strategies. Moreover, government may ensure the availability of climate change resistant varieties of pulses to encourage the pulses cultivation.

Keywords: climate change, pulses productivity, agriculture, Pakistan

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Authors: Lujain Khraiba

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Recently, there is a broad recognition that micro-climate conditions contribute to the quality of life in urban spaces outdoors, both from economical and social viewpoints. The consideration of urban micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort in urban design and planning processes has become one of the important aspects in current related studies. However, these aspects are so far not considered in urban planning regulations in practice and these regulations are often poorly adapted to the local climate and culture. Therefore, there is a huge need to adapt the existing planning regulations to the local climate especially in cities that have extremely hot weather conditions. The overall aim of this study is to point out the complexity of the relationship between urban planning regulations, urban design, micro-climate and outdoor thermal comfort in the hot dry city of Damascus, Syria. The main aim is to investigate the temporal and spatial effects of micro-climate on urban surface temperatures and outdoor thermal comfort in different urban design patterns as a result of urban planning regulations during the extreme summer conditions. In addition, studying different alternatives of how to mitigate the surface temperature and thermal stress is also a part of the aim. The novelty of this study is to highlight the combined effect of urban surface materials and vegetation to develop the thermal environment. This study is based on micro-climate simulations using ENVI-met 3.1. The input data is calibrated according to a micro-climate fieldwork that has been conducted in different urban zones in Damascus. Different urban forms and geometries including the old and the modern parts of Damascus are thermally evaluated. The Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index is used as an indicator for outdoor thermal comfort analysis. The study highlights the shortcomings of existing planning regulations in terms of solar protection especially at street levels. The results show that the surface temperatures in Old Damascus are lower than in the modern part. This is basically due to the difference in urban geometries that prevent the solar radiation in Old Damascus to reach the ground and heat up the surface whereas in modern Damascus, the streets are prescribed as wide spaces with high values of Sky View Factor (SVF is about 0.7). Moreover, the canyons in the old part are paved in cobblestones whereas the asphalt is the main material used in the streets of modern Damascus. Furthermore, Old Damascus is less stressful than the modern part (the difference in PET index is about 10 °C). The thermal situation is enhanced when different vegetation are considered (an improvement of 13 °C in the surface temperature is recorded in modern Damascus). The study recommends considering a detailed landscape code at street levels to be integrated in urban regulations of Damascus in order to achieve a better urban development in harmony with micro-climate and comfort. Such strategy will be very useful to decrease the urban warming in the city.

Keywords: micro-climate, outdoor thermal comfort, urban planning regulations, urban spaces

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Authors: Vidhya Venugopal, Jeremiah Chinnadurai, Rebekah A. I. Lucas, Tord Kjellstrom, Bruno Lemke

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Introduction: The effects of climate change (CC) are largely discussed across the globe in terms of impacts on the environment and the general population, but the impacts on workers remain largely unexplored. The predicted rise in temperatures and heat events in the CC scenario have health implications on millions of workers in physically exerting jobs. The current health and productivity risks associated with heat exposures are characterized, future risk estimates as temperature rises and recommendations towards developing protective and preventive occupational health and safety guidelines for India are discussed. Methodology: Cross-sectional studies were conducted in several occupational sectors with workers engaged in moderate to heavy labor (n=1580). Quantitative data on heat exposures (WBGT°C), physiological heat strain indicators viz., Core temperature (CBT), Urine specific gravity (USG), Sweat rate (SwR) and qualitative data on heat-related health symptoms and productivity losses were collected. Data were analyzed for associations between heat exposures, health and productivity outcomes related to heat stress. Findings: Heat conditions exceeded the Threshold Limit Value (TLV) for safe manual work in 66% of the workers across several sectors (Avg.WBGT of 28.7°C±3.1°C). Widespread concerns about heat-related health outcomes (86%) were prevalent among workers exposed to high TLVs, with excessive sweating, fatigue and tiredness being commonly reported by workers. The heat stress indicators, core temperature (14%), Sweat rate (8%) and USG (9%), were above normal levels in the study population. A significant association was found between rise in Core Temperatures and WBGT exposures (p=0.000179) Elevated USG and SwR in the worker population indicate moderate dehydration, with potential risks of developing heat-related illnesses. In a steel industry with high heat exposures, an alarming 9% prevalence of kidney/urogenital anomalies was observed in a young workforce. Heat exposures above TLVs were associated with significantly increased odds of various adverse health outcomes (OR=2.43, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.13, p-value = <0.0001) and productivity losses (OR=1.79, 95% CI 1.32 to 2.4, p-value = 0.0002). Rough estimates for the number of workers who would be subjected to higher than TLV levels in the various RCP scenarios are RCP2.6 =79%, RCP4.5 & RCP6 = 81% and at RCP 8.5 = 85%. Rising temperatures due to CC has the capacity to further reduce already compromised health and productivity by subjecting the workers to increased heat exposures in the RCP scenarios are of concern for the country’s occupational health and economy. Conclusion: The findings of this study clearly identify that health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in the Indian subcontinent and understanding the various adaptation techniques needs urgent attention. Further research with a multi-targeted approach to develop strategies for implementing interventions to protect the millions of workers is imperative. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the “Health in All Policies” approach to avert adverse health and productivity consequences as climate change proceeds.

Keywords: heat stress, occupational health, productivity loss, heat strain, adverse health outcomes

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Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

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Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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Authors: Auwal Garba, Rabiu Maijama’a, Abdullahi Muhammad Jalam

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Variability in climate has affected the agricultural production all over the globe. This concern has motivated important changes in the field of research during the last decade. Climate variability is believed to have declining effects towards rice production in Nigeria. This study examined climate variability and its impact on rice productivity in Dass Local Government Area, Bauchi State, by employing Linear Trend Model (LTM), analysis of variance (ANOVA) and regression analysis. Annual seasonal data of the climatic variables for temperature (min. and max), rainfall, and solar radiation from 1990 to 2015 were used. Results confirmed that 74.4% of the total variation in rice yield in the study area was explained by the changes in the independent variables. That is to say, temperature (minimum and maximum), rainfall, and solar radiation explained rice yield with 74.4% in the study area. Rising mean maximum temperature would lead to reduction in rice production while moderate increase in mean minimum temperature would be advantageous towards rice production, and the persistent rise in the mean maximum temperature, in the long run, will have more negatively affect rice production in the future. It is, therefore, important to promote agro-meteorological advisory services, which will be useful in farm planning and yield sustainability. Closer collaboration among the meteorologist and agricultural scientist is needed to increase the awareness about the existing database, crop weather models among others, with a view to reaping the full benefits of research on specific problems and sustainable yield management and also there should be a special initiative by the ADPs (State Agricultural Development Programme) towards promoting best agricultural practices that are resilient to climate variability in rice production and yield sustainability.

Keywords: climate variability, impact, productivity, rice

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Authors: Nuno Da Camara, Victor Dulewicz, Malcolm Higgs

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Factors on employee engagement: In particular, although theorists have described the critical role of emotional cognition of the workplace environment as antecedents to employee engagement, empirical research on the impact of emotional cognition on employee engagement is limited. However, previous researchers have typically provided evidence of the link between emotional cognition of the workplace environment and workplace attitudes such as job satisfaction and organisational commitment. This study therefore aims to investigate the impact of emotional cognition of job, role, leader and organisation domains of the work environment – as represented by measures of psychological climate and organizational emotional intelligence (OEI) - on employee engagement. The research is based on a quantitative cross-sectional survey of employees in a UK charity organization (n=174). The research instruments applied include the psychological climate scale, the organisational emotional intelligence questionnaire (OEIQ) and the Utrecht Work Engagement Scale (UWES). The data were analysed using hierarchical regression and partial least squares (PLS) analytical techniques. The results of the study show that both psychological climate and OEI, which represent emotional cognition of job, role, leader and organisation domains in the workplace are significant drivers of employee engagement. In particular, the study found that a sense of contribution and challenge at work are the strongest drivers of vigour, dedication and absorption and highlights the importance of emotionally relevant approaches in furthering our understanding of workplace engagement.

Keywords: employee engagement, organisational emotional intelligence, psychological climate, workplace attitudes

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Authors: Valentina Dotto

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Climate change cases used to take the form of statutory disputes rather than constitutional or common law disputes. This changed in 2015, with the Urgenda Climate case in the Netherlands (Urgenda Foundation v. The State of the Netherlands, C/09/456689/HAZA 13-1396) and, the Juliana case in the U.S. (United States v. U.S. District Court for District of Oregon, 17-71692, 9th Cir.). The two cases represent a new type of climate litigation, the claims brought against the federal government were in fact grounded in constitutional rights. The complaints used the Doctrine of Public Trust as a cornerstone for the lawsuits asserting that government's actions against climate change failed to protect essential public trust resources; thus, violating a generation's constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property. The Public Trust Doctrine –a quintessentially American legal concept-, reserved to the States by virtue of the 9th and 10th amendment of the federal Constitution, gives them considerable jurisdiction over natural resources and has been refined by a number of Supreme Court rulings. The Juliana case exemplifies the Doctrine’s evolutionary nature because it attempts to apply it to the federal government, and establish a right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life as a fundamental right protected by a substantive due process. Furthermore, the flexibility of the Doctrine makes it permissible to be applied to a variety of different legal systems as in the Urgenda case. At the very heart of the lawsuits stands the question of who owns the Earth resources and, to what extent the general public can claim the services that the Earth provides as common property. By employing the widest possible definition of the Doctrine of Public Trust these lawsuits tried to redefine environmental resources as a collective right of all people. By doing case analysis, the paper explores how these cases can contribute to widening the public access to information and broadening the public voice in decision making as well as providing a precedent to equal access in seeking justice and redress from environmental failures.

Keywords: climate change, doctrine of public trust, environmental democracy, Juliana case, Urgenda climate case

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Authors: Aravind J.

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Passive design can be referred to a way of designing buildings that takes advantage of the prevailing climate and natural energy resources. Which will be a key to reduce the increasing energy usage in commercial buildings. Most of the small scale commercial buildings made are merely a thermal mass inbuilt with active systems to bring lively conditions. By bringing the passive design strategies for energy efficiency in commercial buildings will reduce the usage of active systems. Thus the energy usage can be controlled through analysis of daylighting and improved living conditions in the indoor spaces by using passive techniques. And comparative study on different passive design systems and conventional methods will be approached for commercial buildings in hot and humid region. Possible effects of existing risks implied with solution for those problems is also a part of the paper. The result will be carried on with the design programme to prove the workability of the strategies.

Keywords: passive design, energy efficiency, commercial buildings, hot and humid climate

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Authors: Yuan-Lin Liu, Ye Li, Tian Xia

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Taxi-calling APPs have been used widely, while brought both benefits and a variety of issues for the taxi market. Many countries do not know whether the benefits are remarkable than the issues or not. This paper established a comparison between the basic scenario (2009-2012) and a taxi-calling software usage scenario (2012-2015) to explain the impact of taxi-calling APPs. The impacts of taxi-calling APPs illustrated by the comparison results are: 1) The supply and demand distribution is more balanced, extending from the city center to the suburb. The availability of taxi service has been improved in low density areas, thin market attribute has also been improved; 2)The ratio of short distance taxi trip decreased, long distance service increased, the utilization of mileage increased, and the rate of empty decreased; 3) The popularity of taxi-calling APPs was able to reduce the average empty distance, cruise time, empty mileage rate and average times of loading passengers, can also enhance the average operating speed, improve the taxi operating level, and reduce social cost although there are some disadvantages. This paper argues that the taxi industry and government can establish an integrated third-party credit information platform based on credit evaluated by the data of the drivers’ driving behaviors to supervise the drivers. Taxi-calling APPs under fully covered supervision in the mobile Internet environment will become a new trend.

Keywords: taxi, taxi-calling APPs, credit, scenario comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Alan Lai, Wilson Yik

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With rapid urbanization, there has been a dramatic increase in global urban population in Asia and over half of population in Asia will live in urban regions in the near future. Facing with increasing exposure to climate-related stresses and shocks, most of the Asian cities will very likely to experience more frequent heat waves and flooding with rising sea levels, particularly the coastal cities will grapple for intense typhoons and storm surges. These climate changes have severe impacts in urban areas at the costs of infrastructure and population, for example, human health, wellbeing and high risks of dengue fever, malaria and diarrheal disease. With the increasing prominence of adaptation to climate changes, there have been changes in corresponding policies. Smaller cities have greater potentials for integrating the concept of resilience into their infrastructure as well as keeping pace with their rapid growths in population. It is therefore important to explore the potentials of Asian cities adapting to climate change and the opportunities of building climate resilience in urban planning and building design. Furthermore, previous studies have mainly attempted at exploiting the potential of resilience on a macro-level within urban planning rather than that on micro-level within the context of individual building. The resilience of individual building as a research field has not yet been much explored. Nonetheless, recent studies define that the resilience of an individual building is the one which is able to respond to physical damage and recover from such damage in a quickly and cost-effectively manner, while maintain its primary functions. There is also a need to develop an assessment tool to evaluate the resilience on building scale which is still largely uninvestigated as it should be regarded as a basic function of a building. Due to the lack of literature reporting metric for assessing building resilience with sustainability, the research will be designed as a case study to provide insight into the issue. The aim of this research project is to encourage and assist in developing neighborhood climate resilience design strategies for Hong Kong so as to bridge the gap between difference scales and that between theory and practice.

Keywords: resilience cities, building resilience, resilient buildings and infrastructure, climate resilience, hot and humid southeast area, high-density cities

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Yesim Guzel, Mert Akbiyik

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Energy consumption (EC) and costs due to the usage of refrigerators are increasing continuously. This creates a disadvantage not only on the budget of customers but also to global warming. This study aims to decrease EC and cost due to refrigerator EC all around the world. Research about the effect of climate classes on industrial cabinets, supermarket refrigerators or room air conditioning systems can be found in open literature; however, to the best of authors' knowledge, there is no study that includes the effect of climate classes, vacuum insulation panels (VIP) and polyurethane (PU) aging, and electronic expansion valve (EEV) technology for home refrigerators. For this purpose, 4 configurations are examined for household refrigerators for ST (subtropical) and T (tropical) climates. The aging of VIP and PU and the annual interest rate of electricity cost (%5) are considered to obtain more accurate results in calculations. Heat gain (Q), EC, and CO₂ emission are calculated. Config. 1, 2, 3 and 4 are with NO VIP, FULL VIP, NO VIP+ EEV, and FULL VIP+EEV, respectively. As a result, it is observed that Q for Config. 1 and 2 increase as Temp increases. Moreover, from ST to T climates, for all the configurations, EC increases. Additionally, the payback period (t) is based on reference cabinet Config. 1 is calculated. It is considered that annual electricity cost as constant for every climate. When ts are compared with Config. 1 for both climates, it is seen that the minimum t of 2 years is Config. 3. This study shows not only is EEV a better alternative option than VIPs. Hence, EEVs are way cheaper than VIPs and have shorter t, but it also allows us to compare Ec, Q, CO₂ emissions, and cost.

Keywords: energy, thermodynamics, ageing, VIP, polyurethane, expansion valve, EEV, PU, climate, refrigerating, cooling, efficiency

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Authors: Juniarti Yuni

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Simawang area is one of the critical areas (sub-optimal) that experienced drought from climate changes. Potential dry land belonging to sub-optimal in Simawang, West Sumatera, Indonesia not been fully utilized for agricultural cultivation. Simawang village, West Sumatera, Indonesia is formerly known as the rice barn, due to the climate change area is experiencing a drought, so the rice fields that were once productive now a grazing paddock because of lack of water. This study aims to calculate the soil carbon stock in Simawang village, West Sumatera Indonesia. The study was conducted in Simawang village, Tanah Datar regency, West Sumatera from October 2014 until December 2017. The study was conducted on sub-optimal land to be planted with Cymbopogon nardus L. (Sereh wangi in Indonesian language). Composite soil sampling conducted at a depth of 0-20 cm, 20–40 cm. Based on the depth of soil carbon stocks gained higher ground 6473 T/Ha at a depth of 0-20 cm at a depth of 20-40 cm. Efforts to increase soil carbon is expected to be cultivated through Cymbopogon nardus L. planting has been done.

Keywords: climate changes, sereh wangi (Cymbopogon nardus L.), soil carbon stock, sub optimal land

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Authors: Amirah Azzeri, Fatiha H. Shabaruddin, Scott A. McDonald, Rosmawati Mohamed, Maznah Dahlui

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Objective: A scaled-up treatment cascade with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy is necessary to achieve global WHO targets for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Malaysia. Recently, limited access to Sofosbuvir/Daclatasvir (SOF/DAC) is available through compulsory licensing, with future access to Sofosbuvir/Velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) expected through voluntary licensing due to recent agreements. SOF/VEL has superior clinical outcomes, particularly for cirrhotic stages, but has higher drug acquisition costs compared to SOF/DAC. It has been proposed that a stratified treatment cascade might be the most cost-efficient approach for Malaysia whereby all HCV patients are treated with SOF/DAC except for patients with cirrhosis who are treated with SOF/VEL. This study aimed to conduct a five-year budget impact analysis from the provider perspective of the proposed stratified treatment cascade for HCV treatment in Malaysia. Method: A disease progression model that was developed based on model-predicted HCV epidemiology data in Malaysia was used for the analysis, where all HCV patients in scenario A were treated with SOF/DAC for all disease stages while in scenario B, SOF/DAC was used only for non-cirrhotic patients and SOF/VEL was used for the cirrhotic patients. The model projections estimated the annual numbers of patients in care and the numbers of patients to be initiated on DAA treatment nationally. Healthcare costs associated with DAA therapy and disease stage monitoring was included to estimate the downstream cost implications. For scenario B, the estimated treatment uptake of SOF/VEL for cirrhotic patients were 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% and 100% for 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively. Healthcare costs were estimated based on standard clinical pathways for DAA treatment described in recent guidelines. All costs were reported in US dollars (conversion rate US$1=RM4.09, the price year 2018). Scenario analysis was conducted for 5% and 10% reduction of SOF/VEL acquisition cost anticipated from the competitive market pricing of generic DAA in Malaysia. Results: The stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL in Scenario B was found to be cost-saving compared to Scenario A. A substantial portion of the cost reduction was due to the costs associated with DAA therapy which resulted in USD 40 thousand (year 1) to USD 443 thousand (year 5) savings annually, with cumulative savings of USD 1.1 million after 5 years. Cost reductions for disease stage monitoring were seen in year three onwards which resulted in cumulative savings of USD 1.1 thousand. Scenario analysis estimated cumulative savings of USD 1.24 to USD 1.35 million when the acquisition cost of SOF/VEL was reduced. Conclusion: A stratified treatment cascade with SOF/VEL was expected to be cost-saving and can results in a budget impact reduction in overall healthcare expenditure in Malaysia compared to treatment with SOF/DAC. The better clinical efficacy with SOF/VEL is expected to halt patients’ HCV disease progression and may reduce downstream costs of treating advanced disease stages. The findings of this analysis may be useful to inform healthcare policies for HCV treatment in Malaysia.

Keywords: Malaysia, direct acting antiviral, compulsory licensing, voluntary licensing

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Authors: F. Sahnoune

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The study focuses on the analysis of the Algerian greenhouse gase emissions. In Algeria, as in other countries, the issue of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change is the subject of great concern. As climate change is a global problem and taking into consideration the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' as mentioned in the Rio Declaration in 1992, Algeria has initiated a broad program of voluntary reduction of GHG emissions and climate change adaptation. Thus although the contribution of Algeria on global warming is minimal (less than 0.5% of global GHG emissions), the country is, because its geographical position and climatic characteristics, very vulnerable and should integrate mitigation and adaptation into its development policy. Even a small rise in temperature would lead to various socio-economic problems that hinder the development of the country. The models predict that rainfall events are less frequent but more intense, while droughts are more common and longer. The decrease of water resources, declining agricultural yields, encroaching desert, the challenge of planning and the energy consumption for air conditioning are only the initial impacts to which Algeria must find answers supportable economically and socially. The study examines to what extent, Algeria can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We present an analysis of the current situation, trends in CO2 emissions, footprint of Algeria, national climate plan and especially what will be the impact on GHG emissions of the new strategy for promoting renewable energy adopted in 2011 and expects to produce 40% of electricity needs from solar energy. The results show that in 2012 the GHG emissions totaled 153 MT CO2 eq and growing at a rate of over 3%. The Introduction of solar energy in electricity production and implementation of energy efficiency allow to reduce by 2030 more than 300 MT CO2 eq. Avenues of consideration relating to a combination of policies and improved technologies that are able to reduce CO2 emissions and mitigate the impacts caused by climate change in the medium term will also be presented.

Keywords: climate change, co2 mitigation, greenhouse gases, renewable energy, sustainable development

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Authors: Bharat Sapkota

Abstract:

Nepal is the one of the victim country of climate change. Decreasing snow line, sometimes higher and sometime non-rain fall are common phenomena in hill area. Natural flood disaster and drought is also common every year in certain place of the country. So this paper analyze the effect of climate and natural water sources for sustainability of water sanitation and hygiene of Tanahun district. It is one of the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project Western Nepal Phase-II (RWSSP-WN Phase-II) project district out of 14 project districts of western and mid-western Nepal. RWSSP-WN II is a bilateral development cooperation of governments of Nepal and Finland. Big investment is still going on in water sanitation and hygiene sector but sustainability is still a challenge throughout the country. So RWSSP-WN has started the strengthen of the capacity of local Governments to deliver services in water supply, sanitation and hygiene and its sustainability through the implementation of cross cutting approach of climate change and disaster risk reduction. The study shows that the average yield in 685 natural point sources were around 0.045 l/s in 2014 but it was twice as high in 2004 i.e. 0.09 l/s. The maximum measured yield in 2014 was 1.87 l/s, whereas, the maximum yield was 3 l/s in 2004. Likewise, spring source mean and maximum yield measured in 2014 were 0.16 l/s and 3.33 l/s respectively, whereas, mean and maximum yields in 2004 were 0.204 l/s and 3 l/s respectively. Small streams average yield measured in 2014 was 0.32 l/s with the maximum of around 4.99 l/s. In 2004, mean and maximum yields of streams were 0.485 l/s and 5 l/s respectively. The overall climate between years 2002 to 2013 and measured yield data between 2004 and 2014 shows climate as one of the causes of water source decline. The temperature is rising with pace of 0.041°C per year and rainfall is decreased by 16.8 mm/year. The Khosla’s empirical formula shows decrease of 1.7 cm/year in runoff. At present sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene is more challenge due to sources decreasing in the district. Sanitation and hygiene total behavior change and watershed conservation as well as design and implementation of recharge pound construction are the way forward of sustainability of water, sanitation and hygiene.

Keywords: water sanitation, hygiene, sustainability, climate change

Procedia PDF Downloads 337