Search results for: linear fractional differential equations

Authors: Irfan Ahmad Afip

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This main research objective is to accurately identify the possibility for a Leptospirosis outbreak severity of a certain area based on its input features into a multivariate regression model. The research question is the possibility of an outbreak in a specific area being influenced by this feature, such as social demographics and hydrometeorological extremes. If the occurrence of an outbreak is being subjected to these features, then the epidemic severity for an area will be different depending on its environmental setting because the features will influence the possibility and severity of an outbreak. Specifically, this research objective was three-fold, namely: (a) to identify the relevant multivariate features and visualize the patterns data, (b) to develop a multivariate regression model based from the selected features and determine the possibility for Leptospirosis outbreak in an area, and (c) to compare the predictive ability of multivariate regression model and machine learning algorithms. Several secondary data features were collected locations in the state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia, based on the possibility it would be relevant to determine the outbreak severity in the area. The relevant features then will become an input in a multivariate regression model; a linear regression model is a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. A multivariate regression model has proven more precise prognostic capabilities than univariate models. The expected outcome from this research is to establish a correlation between the features of social demographic and hydrometeorological with Leptospirosis bacteria; it will also become a contributor for understanding the underlying relationship between the pathogen and the ecosystem. The relationship established can be beneficial for the health department or urban planner to inspect and prepare for future outcomes in event detection and system health monitoring.

Keywords: geographical information system, hydrometeorological, leptospirosis, multivariate regression

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Authors: Vahid Nourani, Atefeh Ashrafi

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Prediction of treated wastewater quality is a matter of growing importance in water treatment procedure. In this way artificial neural network (ANN), as a robust data-driven approach, has been widely used for forecasting the effluent quality of wastewater treatment. However, developing ANN model based on appropriate input variables is a major concern due to the numerous parameters which are collected from treatment process and the number of them are increasing in the light of electronic sensors development. Various studies have been conducted, using different clustering methods, in order to classify most related and effective input variables. This issue has been overlooked in the selecting dominant input variables among wastewater treatment parameters which could effectively lead to more accurate prediction of water quality. In the presented study two ANN models were developed with the aim of forecasting effluent quality of Tabriz city’s wastewater treatment plant. Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) was utilized to determine water quality as a target parameter. Model A used Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for input selection as a linear variance-based clustering method. Model B used those variables identified by the mutual information (MI) measure. Therefore, the optimal ANN structure when the result of model B compared with model A showed up to 15% percent increment in Determination Coefficient (DC). Thus, this study highlights the advantage of PCA method in selecting dominant input variables for ANN modeling of wastewater plant efficiency performance.

Keywords: Artificial Neural Networks, biochemical oxygen demand, principal component analysis, mutual information, Tabriz wastewater treatment plant, wastewater treatment plant

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Authors: S. Singh, P. Patel, D. Kachhadiya, Swapnil Dharaskar

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The research objective is to integrate nanoparticles into fuels- i.e. diesel, biodiesel, biodiesel blended with diesel, plastic derived fuels, etc. to increase the fuel efficiency. The metal oxide nanoparticles will reduce the carbon monoxide emissions by donating oxygen atoms from their lattices to catalyze the combustion reactions and to aid complete combustion; due to this, there will be an increase in the calorific value of the blend (fuel + metal nanoparticles). Aluminium oxide and cobalt oxide nanoparticles have been synthesized by sol-gel method. The characterization was done by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS). The size of the particles was determined by XRD to be 28.6 nm and 28.06 nm for aluminium oxide and cobalt oxide nanoparticles respectively. Different concentration blends- 50, 100, 150 ppm were prepared by adding the required weight of metal oxides in 1 liter of diesel and sonicating for 30 minutes at 500W. The blend properties- calorific value, viscosity, and flash point were determined by bomb calorimeter, Brookfield viscometer and pensky-martin apparatus. For the aluminum oxide blended diesel, there was a maximum increase of 5.544% in the calorific value, but at the same time, there was an increase in the flash point from 43°C to 58.5°C and an increase in the viscosity from 2.45 cP to 3.25 cP. On the other hand, for the cobalt oxide blended diesel there was a maximum increase of 2.012% in the calorific value while the flash point increased from 43°C to 51.5°C and the viscosity increased from 2.45 cP to 2.94 cP. There was a linear increase in the calorific value, viscosity and flash point when the concentration of the metal oxide nanoparticles in the blend was increased. For the 50 ppm Al₂O₃ and 50 ppm Co₃O₄ blend the increasing the calorific value was 1.228 %, and the viscosity changed from 2.45 cP to 2.64 cP and the flash point increased from 43°C to 50.5°C. Clearly the aluminium oxide nanoparticles increase the calorific value but at the cost of flash point and viscosity, thus it is better to use the 50 ppm aluminium oxide, and 50 ppm cobalt oxide blended diesel.

Keywords: aluminium oxide nanoparticles, cobalt oxide nanoparticles, fuel additives, fuel characteristics

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Authors: Andrea S. Badillo-Perez, Alexis D. Mitchell, Sara M. Levens

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Overeating, and obesity have been associated with addictive behavior, primarily due to behaviors like reward-based eating, the tendency to overeat due to factors such as lack of control, preoccupation over food, and lack of satiation. Temporal discounting (TD), the ability to select future rewards over short term gains, and mindfulness, the process of maintaining present moment awareness, have been suggested to have significant, differential impacts on health-related behaviors. An individual’s health locus of control, the degree to which they feel that they have control over their health is also known to have an impact on health outcomes. The goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between health locus of control and reward-based eating, as well as the relation between TD and mindfulness in a sample (N = 126) of overweight or obese participants from larger health-focused study. Through the use of questionnaires (including the Five Facet Mindfulness Questionnaire (FFMQ), Reward-Based Eating Drive (RED), and Multidimensional Health Locus of Control (MHLOC)), anthropometric measurements, and a computerized TD task, a series of regressions tested the association between subscales of these measures. Results revealed differences in how the mindfulness subscales are associated with TD measures. Specifically the ‘Observing’ (beta =-.203) and ‘Describing’ (beta =.26) subscales were associated with lower TD rates and a longer subjective devaluation time-frame respectively. In contrast, the ‘Acting with Awareness’ subscale was associated with a shorter subjective devaluation timeframe (beta =-.23). These findings suggest that the reflective perspective initiated through the observing and describing components of mindfulness may facilitate delay of gratification, whereas the acting with awareness component of mindfulness, which focuses on the present moment, may make delay of gratification more challenging. Results also indicated that a higher degree of reward-based eating was associated with a higher degree of an external health locus of control based on the power of chance (beta =.10). However, an external locus of control based on the power of others had no significant association with reward-based eating. This finding implies that the belief that health is due to chance is associated with greater reward-based eating behavior, suggesting that interventions that focus on locus of control may be helpful. Overall, findings demonstrate that weight loss interventions may benefit from health locus of control and mindfulness exercises, but caution should be taken as the components of mindfulness appear to have different effects on increasing or decreasing delay of gratification.

Keywords: health locus of control, mindfulness, obesity, reward-based eating, temporal discounting

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Authors: Pornthep Rachnavy

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The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we believe that there are a significant relationship between sculling angle and sculling style among adaptive rowing. Second, we introduce a methodology used for adaptive rowing, namely simulation, to identify effectiveness of adaptive rowing. For our study we simulate the arms only single scull of adaptive rowing. The method for rowing fastest under the 1000 meter was investigated by study sculling angle using the simulation modeling. A simulation model of a rowing system was developed using the Matlab software package base on equations of motion consist of many variation for moving the boat such as oars length, blade velocity and sculling style. The boat speed, power and energy consumption on the system were compute. This simulation modeling can predict the force acting on the boat. The optimum sculling angle was performing by computer simulation for compute the solution. Input to the model are sculling style of each rower and sculling angle. Outputs of the model are boat velocity at 1000 meter. The present study suggests that the optimum sculling angle exist depends on sculling styles. The optimum angle for blade entry and release with respect to the perpendicular through the pin of the first style is -57.00 and 22.0 degree. The optimum angle for blade entry and release with respect to the perpendicular through the pin of the second style is -57.00 and 22.0 degree. The optimum angle for blade entry and release with respect to the perpendicular through the pin of the third style is -51.57 and 28.65 degree. The optimum angle for blade entry and release with respect to the perpendicular through the pin of the fourth style is -45.84 and 34.38 degree. A theoretical simulation for rowing has been developed and presented. The results suggest that it may be advantageous for the rowers to select the sculling angles proper to sculling styles. The optimum sculling angles of the rower depends on the sculling styles made by each rower. The investigated of this paper can be concludes in three directions: 1;. There is the optimum sculling angle in arms only single scull of adaptive rowing. 2. The optimum sculling angles depend on the sculling styles. 3. Computer simulation of rowing can identify opportunities for improving rowing performance by utilizing the kinematic description of rowing. The freedom to explore alternatives in speed, thrust and timing with the computer simulation will provide the coach with a tool for systematic assessments of rowing technique In addition, the ability to use the computer to examine the very complex movements during rowing will help both the rower and the coach to conceptualize the components of movements that may have been previously unclear or even undefined.

Keywords: simulation, sculling, adaptive, rowing

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Authors: Kodo Sektani, Apostolos Tsouvalas, Andrei Metrikine

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The reassessment of existing movable bridges in The Netherlands has created the need for acceptance/rejection criteria to assess whether the machineries are meet certain design demands. However, the existing design code defines a different limit state design, meant for new machineries which is based on a simple linear spring-mass model. Observations show that existing bridges do not confirm the model predictions. In fact, movable bridges are nonlinear systems consisting of mechanical components, such as, gears, electric motors and brakes. Next to that, each movable bridge is characterized by a unique set of parameters. However, in the existing code various variables that describe the physical characteristics of the bridge are neglected or replaced by partial factors. For instance, the damping ratio ζ, which is different for drawbridges compared to bascule bridges, is taken as a constant for all bridge types. In this paper, a model is developed that overcomes some of the limitations of existing modelling approaches to capture the dynamics of the powertrain of a class of bridge machineries First, a semidefinite dynamic model is proposed, which accounts for stiffness, damping, and some additional variables of the physical system, which are neglected by the code, such as nonlinear braking torques. The model gives an upper bound of the peak forces/torques occurring in the powertrain during emergency braking. Second, a discrete nonlinear dynamic model is discussed, with realistic motor torque characteristics during normal operation. This model succeeds to accurately predict the full time history of the occurred stress state of the opening and closing cycle for fatigue purposes.

Keywords: Dynamics of movable bridges, Bridge machinery, Powertrains, Torque measurements

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Authors: Mario P. Walker, Masaaki Okuma

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Ships are subjected to motions which can disrupt on-board operations and damage equipment. Roll motion, in particular, is of great interest due to low damping conditions which may lead to capsizing. Therefore finding ways to reduce this motion is important in ship designs. Several techniques have been investigated to reduce rolling. These include the commonly used anti-roll tanks, fin stabilizers and bilge keels. However, these systems are not without their challenges. For example, water-flow in anti-roll tanks creates complications, and for fin stabilizers and bilge keels, an extremely large size is required to produce any significant damping creating operational challenges. Additionally, among these measures presented above only anti-roll tanks are effective in zero forward motion of the vessels. This paper proposes and investigates a method to reduce rolling by inducing Coriolis effect using water-flow in the radial direction. Motion in the radial direction of a rolling structure will induce Coriolis force and, depending on the direction of flow will either amplify or attenuate the structure. The system is modelled with two degrees of freedom, having rotational motion for parametric rolling and radial motion of the water-flow. Equations of motion are derived and investigated. Numerical examples are analyzed in detail. To demonstrate applicability parameters from a Ro-Ro vessel are used as extensive research have been conducted on these over the years. The vessel is investigated under free and forced roll conditions. Several models are created using various masses, heights, and velocities of water-flow at a given time. The proposed system was found to produce substantial roll reduction which increases with increase in any of the parameters varied as stated above, with velocity having the most significant effect. The proposed system provides a simple approach to reduce ship rolling. Water-flow control is very simple as the water flows in only one direction with constant velocity. Only needing to control the time at which the system should be turned on or off. Furthermore, the proposed system is effective in both forward and zero forward motion of the ship, and provides no hydrodynamic drag. This is a starting point for designing an effective and practical system. For this to be a viable approach further investigations are needed to address challenges that present themselves.

Keywords: Coriolis effect, damping, rolling, water-flow

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Authors: Matei Tudor Berceanu, Hema Viswambharan, Kirti Kain, Chew Weng Cheng

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Background - Obesity parameters, particularly visceral obesity as measured by the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), correlate with insulin resistance. The metabolic microvascular changes associated with insulin resistance causes increased peripheral arteriolar resistance primarily to the lower limb vessels. We hypothesize that ankle systolic blood pressures (SBPs) are more significantly associated with visceral obesity than brachial SBPs. Methods - 1098 adults enriched in south Asians or Europeans with diabetes (T2DM) were recruited from a primary care practice in West Yorkshire. Their medical histories, including T2DM and cardiovascular disease (CVD) status, were gathered from an electronic database. The brachial, dorsalis pedis, and posterior tibial SBPs were measured using a Doppler machine. Their body mass index (BMI) and WHtR were calculated after measuring their weight, height, and waist circumference. Linear regressions were performed between the 6 SBPs and both obesity parameters, after adjusting for covariates. Results - Generally, the left posterior tibial SBP (P=4.559*10⁻¹⁵) and right posterior tibial SBP (P=1.114* 10⁻¹³ ) are the pressures most significantly associated with the BMI, as well as in south Asians (P < 0.001) and Europeans (P < 0.001) specifically. In South Asians, although the left (P=0.032) and right brachial SBP (P=0.045) were associated to the WHtR, the left posterior tibial SBP (P=0.023) showed the strongest association. Conclusion - Regardless of ethnicity, ankle SBPs are more significantly associated with generalized obesity than brachial SBPs, suggesting their screening potential for screening for early detection of T2DM and CVD. A combination of ankle SBPs with WHtR is proposed in south Asians.

Keywords: ankle blood pressures, body mass index, insulin resistance, waist-to-height-ratio

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Authors: Wei Liu, Shuquan Wang, Yang Gao

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Microgravity Science Experiment Rack (MSER) will be onboard TianHe (TH) spacecraft planned to be launched in 2018. TH is one module of Chinese Space Station. Microgravity Vibration Isolation System (MVIS), which is MSER’s core part, is used to isolate disturbance from TH and provide high-level microgravity for science experiment payload. MVIS is two stage vibration isolation system, consisting of Follow Unit (FU) and Experiment Support Unit (ESU). FU is linked to MSER by umbilical cables, and ESU suspends within FU and without physical connection. The FU’s position and attitude relative to TH is measured by binocular vision measuring system, and the acceleration and angular velocity is measured by accelerometers and gyroscopes. Air-jet thrusters are used to generate force and moment to control FU’s motion. Measurement module on ESU contains a set of Position-Sense-Detectors (PSD) sensing the ESU’s position and attitude relative to FU, accelerometers and gyroscopes sensing ESU’s acceleration and angular velocity. Electro-magnetic actuators are used to control ESU’s motion. Firstly, the linearized equations of FU’s motion relative to TH and ESU’s motion relative to FU are derived, laying the foundation for control system design and simulation analysis. Subsequently, two control schemes are proposed. One control scheme is that ESU tracks FU and FU tracks TH, shorten as E-F-T. The other one is that FU tracks ESU and ESU tracks TH, shorten as F-E-T. In addition, motion spaces are constrained within ±15 mm、±2° between FU and ESU, and within ±300 mm between FU and TH or between ESU and TH. A Proportional-Integrate-Differentiate (PID) controller is designed to control FU’s position and attitude. ESU’s controller includes an acceleration feedback loop and a relative position feedback loop. A Proportional-Integrate (PI) controller is designed in the acceleration feedback loop to reduce the ESU’s acceleration level, and a PID controller in the relative position feedback loop is used to avoid collision. Finally, simulations of E-F-T and F-E-T are performed considering variety uncertainties, disturbances and motion space constrains. The simulation results of E-T-H showed that control performance was from 0 to -20 dB for vibration frequency from 0.01 to 0.1 Hz, and vibration was attenuated 40 dB per ten octave above 0.1Hz. The simulation results of T-E-H showed that vibration was attenuated 20 dB per ten octave at the beginning of 0.01Hz.

Keywords: microgravity science experiment rack, microgravity vibration isolation system, PID control, vibration isolation performance

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Authors: Nthabiseng Portia Mahumapelo, Andre van Niekerk, Ndabenhle Sosibo, Nirdesh Singh

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The foundry industry generates large quantities of solid waste in the form of waste foundry sand. The ever-increasing quantities of this type of industrial waste put pressure on land-filling space and its proper management has become a global concern. The South African foundry industry is not different when it comes to this solid waste generation. Utilizing the foundry waste sand in other applications has become an attractive avenue to deal with this waste stream. In the present paper, an evaluation was done on the suitability of foundry waste sand as an additive in clay masonry products. Purchased clay was added to the foundry waste sand sample in a 50/50 ratio. The mixture was named FC sample. The FC sample was mixed with water in a pan mixer until the mixture was consistent and suitable for extrusion. The FC sample was extruded and cut into briquettes. Water absorption, shrinkage and modulus of rupture tests were conducted on the resultant briquettes. Foundry waste sand and FC samples were respectively characterized mineralogically using X-Ray Diffraction, and the major and trace elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy. Adding purchased clay to the foundry waste sand positively influenced the workability of the test sample. Another positive characteristic was the low linear shrinkage, which indicated that products manufactured from the FC sample would not be susceptible to cracking. The water absorption values were acceptable and the unfired and fired strength values of the briquette’s samples were acceptable. In conclusion, tests showed that foundry waste sand can be used as an additive in masonry clay bricks, provided it is blended with good quality clay.

Keywords: foundry waste sand, masonry clay bricks, modulus of rupture, shrinkage

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Authors: Ali Kadivar, Kaveh Niayesh

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This work simulates the voltage drop and resistance of the explosion of copper wires of diameters 25, 40, and 100 µm surrounded by 1 bar nitrogen exposed to a 150 A current and before plasma formation. The absorption of electrical energy in an exploding wire is greatly diminished when the plasma is formed. This study shows the importance of considering radiation and heat conductivity in the accuracy of the circuit simulations. The radiation of the dense plasma formed on the wire surface is modeled with the Net Emission Coefficient (NEC) and is mixed with heat conductivity through PLASIMO® software. A time-transient code for analyzing wire explosions driven by a slow current rise rate is developed. It solves a circuit equation coupled with one-dimensional (1D) equations for the copper electrical conductivity as a function of its physical state and Net Emission Coefficient (NEC) radiation. At first, an initial voltage drop over the copper wire, current, and temperature distribution at the time of expansion is derived. The experiments have demonstrated that wires remain rather uniform lengthwise during the explosion and can be simulated utilizing 1D simulations. Data from the first stage are then used as the initial conditions of the second stage, in which a simplified 1D model for high-Mach-number flows is adopted to describe the expansion of the core. The current was carried by the vaporized wire material before it was dispersed in nitrogen by the shock wave. In the third stage, using a three-dimensional model of the test bench, the streamer threshold is estimated. Electrical breakdown voltage is calculated without solving a full-blown plasma model by integrating Townsend growth coefficients (TdGC) along electric field lines. BOLSIG⁺ and LAPLACE databases are used to calculate the TdGC at different mixture ratios of nitrogen/copper vapor. The simulations show both radiation and heat conductivity should be considered for an adequate description of wire resistance, and gaseous discharges start at lower voltages than expected due to ultraviolet radiation and the exploding shocks, which may have ionized the nitrogen.

Keywords: exploding wire, Townsend breakdown mechanism, streamer, metal vapor, shock waves

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Authors: Merilin Ivanova Ivanova, Kalin Dimitrov Atanasov, Stefan Petrov Enchev

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Backgroud: Neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder, also known as Devic’s disease, is a relapsing demyelinating autoimmune inflammatory disorder of the central nervous system associated with anti-aquaporin 4 (AQP4) antibodies that can manifest with devastating secondary neurological deficits. Most commonly affected are the optic nerves and the spinal cord-clinically this is often presented with optic neuritis (loss of vision), transverse myelitis(weakness or paralysis of extremities),lack of bladder and bowel control, numbness. APS is a core clinical entity of NMOSD and adds to the clinical representation the following symptoms: intractable nausea, vomiting and hiccup, it usually occurs isolated at onset, and can lead to a significant delay in the diagnosis. The condition may have features similar to multiple sclerosis (MS) but the episodes are worse in NMO and it is treated differently. It could be relapsing or monophasic. Possible complications are visual field defects and motor impairment, with potential blindness and irreversible motor deficits. In severe cases, myogenic respiratory failure ensues. The incidence of reported cases is approximately 0.3–4.4 per 100,000. Paediatric cases of NMOSD are rare but have been reported occasionally, comprising less than 5% of the reported cases. Objective: The case serves to show the difficulty when it comes to the diagnostic processes regarding a rare autoimmune disease with non- specific symptoms, taking large interval of rimes to reveal as complete clinical manifestation of the aforementioned syndrome, as well as the necessity of multidisciplinary approach in the setting of а general paediatric department in аn emergency hospital. Methods: itpatient's history, clinical presentation, and information from the used diagnostic tools(MRI with contrast of the central nervous system) lead us to the conclusion .This was later on confirmed by the positive results from the anti-aquaporin 4 (AQP4) antibody serology test. Conclusion: APS is a common symptom of NMOSD and is considered a challenge in a differential-diagnostic plan. Gaining an increased awareness of this disease/syndrome, obtaining a detailed patient history, and performing thorough physical examinations are essential if we are to reduce and avoid misdiagnosis.

Keywords: neuromyelitis, devic's disease, hiccup, autoimmune, MRI

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Authors: Roya Kelishadi, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Mostafa Qorbani

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Introduction: As a health-related behavior, physical activity (PA) has an unequal distribution relating to individual's socioeconomic status. This study aimed to assess socioeconomic inequality in PA among Iranian students and their parents at national level and according to socioeconomic status (SES) of the living regions. Method: This study was conducted as part of a national surveillance program conducted among 14400 Iranian students and their parents. Non-linear principal component analysis was used to construct the households' socioeconomic status, and the concentration index approach was applied to measure inequality in father, mother, and student’s PA. Results: The data of 13313 students and their parents were complete for the current study. At national level and SES regions, students had more PA than their parents (except in the lowest SES region), and fathers have more PA than mothers. The lowest means of mother and student's PA were find in the highest SES region. At national level, the concentration indices of father and mother’s PA were -0.050 (95 % CI: -0.067 ~ -0.030) and -0.028 (95% CI: -0.044 ~ -0.012), respectively; indicating pro-poor inequality and, the CI value of student PA was nearly equal to zero (P > 0.05). At SES regions, father and mother's PA were more concentrated in the poor, except for lower middle region. Regional concentration indices for students reveal that inequality not statistically significant at all regions. Conclusion: This study suggests that reliable evidence that comparing different aspects of inequality of PA, based on socioeconomic status and residence areas of students and their parents, could be used for better planning for health promotion programs. Moreover, given the average of mother's and student’s PA in the richer regions were low, it can be suggested that richer focused-PA planning may further increase the level of PA across higher SES and, consequently, reduce inequality in PA. These findings can be applied in the health system services.

Keywords: concentration index, health system services, physical activity, socioeconomic inequality

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Authors: Atiq U. Zaman, Juliet Arnott

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This paper analyses the various benefits and barriers of residential deconstruction in the context of environmental performance and circular economy based on a case study project in Christchurch, New Zealand. The case study project “Whole House Deconstruction” which aimed, firstly, to harvest materials from a residential house, secondly, to produce new products using the recovered materials, and thirdly, to organize an exhibition for the local public to promote awareness on resource conservation and sustainable deconstruction practices. Through a systematic deconstruction process, the project recovered around 12 tonnes of various construction materials, most of which would otherwise be disposed of to landfill in the traditional demolition approach. It is estimated that the deconstruction of a similar residential house could potentially prevent around 27,029 kg of carbon emission to the atmosphere by recovering and reusing the building materials. In addition, the project involved local designers to produce 400 artefacts using the recovered materials and to exhibit them to accelerate public awareness. The findings from this study suggest that the deconstruction project has significant environmental benefits, as well as social benefits by involving the local community and unemployed youth as a part of their professional skills development opportunities. However, the project faced a number of economic and institutional challenges. The study concludes that with proper economic models and appropriate institutional support a significant amount of construction and demolition waste can be reduced through a systematic deconstruction process. Traditionally, the greatest benefits from such projects are often ignored and remain unreported to wider audiences as most of the external and environmental costs have not been considered in the traditional linear economy.

Keywords: circular economy, construction and demolition waste, resource recovery, systematic deconstruction, sustainable waste management

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Authors: Debabrata Bhadra, B. K. Chaudhuri

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The operation of organic thin film transistors (OFETs) with low voltage is currently a prevailing issue. We have fabricated anthracene thin-film transistor (TFT) with an ultrathin layer (~450nm) of Poly-vinylidene fluoride (PVDF)/CuO nanocomposites as a gate insulator. We obtained a device with excellent electrical characteristics at low operating voltages (<1V). Different layers of the film were also prepared to achieve the best optimization of ideal gate insulator with various static dielectric constant (εr ). Capacitance density, leakage current at 1V gate voltage and electrical characteristics of OFETs with a single and multi layer films were investigated. This device was found to have highest field effect mobility of 2.27 cm2/Vs, a threshold voltage of 0.34V, an exceptionally low sub threshold slope of 380 mV/decade and an on/off ratio of 106. Such favorable combination of properties means that these OFETs can be utilized successfully as voltages below 1V. A very simple fabrication process has been used along with step wise poling process for enhancing the pyroelectric effects on the device performance. The output characteristic of OFET after poling were changed and exhibited linear current-voltage relationship showing the evidence of large polarization. The temperature dependent response of the device was also investigated. The stable performance of the OFET after poling operation makes it reliable in temperature sensor applications. Such High-ε CuO/PVDF gate dielectric appears to be highly promising candidates for organic non-volatile memory and sensor field-effect transistors (FETs).

Keywords: organic field effect transistors, thin film transistor, gate dielectric, organic semiconductor

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Authors: Elmira Ghanbari, Jan Van Esch, Stephen J. Picken, Sahil Aggarwal

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Low-molecular-weight organogelators form gels by self-assembly into the crystalline network which immobilizes the organic solvent. For single bisamide organogelator systems, the effect of the molecular structure on the molecular interaction and their self-assembly behavior has been explored. The spatial arrangement of bisamide molecules in the gel-state is driven by a combination of hydrogen bonding and Van der Waals interactions. The hydrogen-bonding pattern between the amide groups of bisamide molecules is regulated by the number of methylene spacers; the even number of methylene spacers between two amide groups, in even-spaced bisamides, leads to the antiparallel position of amide groups within a molecule. An even-spaced bisamide molecule with antiparallel amide groups can make two pairs of hydrogen bonding with the molecules on the same plane. The odd-spaced bisamide with a parallel directionality of amide groups can form four independent hydrogen bonds with four other bisamide molecules on different planes. The arrangement of bisamide molecules in the crystalline state and the interaction of these molecules depends on the molecular structure, particularly the parity of the spacer length between the amide groups in the bisamide molecule. In this study, the directionality of amide groups has been exploited as a structural characteristic to affect the arrangement of molecules in the crystalline state and produce different binary bisamide gelators with different degrees of crystallinities. Single odd- and even-spaced single bisamides were synthesized and blended to produce binary bisamide organogelators to be characterized in order to understand the effect of the different directionality of amide groups on the molecular interaction in the crystalline state. The pattern of molecular interactions between these blended molecules, mixing or phase separation, has been monitored via differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and crystallography techniques; X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). The formation of lamellar structures for odd- and even-spaced bisamide gelators was confirmed by using SAXS and XRD techniques. DSC results have shown that binary bisamide organogelators with different parity of methylene spacers (odd-even binary blends) have a higher tendency for phase separation compared to the binary bisamides with the same parity (odd-odd or even-even binary blends). Phase separation in binary odd-even bisamides was confirmed by the presence of individual (100) reflections of odd and even lamellar structures. The structural characteristic of bisamide organogelators, the parity of spacer length in binary systems, is a promising tool to control the arrangement of molecules and their crystalline structure.

Keywords: binary bisamide organogelators, crystalline structure, phase separation, self-assembly behavior

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Authors: Cheng Zeng, George Michailidis, Hitoshi Iyatomi, Leo L. Duan

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The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable y given other predictor x and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant work on the problem of Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) for a low-dimensional response in the presence of a high-dimensional predictor, little work has been done for a high-dimensional response such as images. The promising performance of normalizing flow (NF) neural networks in unconditional density estimation acts as a motivating starting point. In this work, the authors extend NF neural networks when external x is present. Specifically, they use the NF to parameterize a one-to-one transform between a high-dimensional y and a latent z that comprises two components [zₚ, zₙ]. The zₚ component is a low-dimensional subvector obtained from the posterior distribution of an elementary predictive model for x, such as logistic/linear regression. The zₙ component is a high-dimensional independent Gaussian vector, which explains the variations in y not or less related to x. Unlike existing CDE methods, the proposed approach coined Augmented Posterior CDE (AP-CDE) only requires a simple modification of the common normalizing flow framework while significantly improving the interpretation of the latent component since zₚ represents a supervised dimension reduction. In image analytics applications, AP-CDE shows good separation of 𝑥-related variations due to factors such as lighting condition and subject id from the other random variations. Further, the experiments show that an unconditional NF neural network based on an unsupervised model of z, such as a Gaussian mixture, fails to generate interpretable results.

Keywords: conditional density estimation, image generation, normalizing flow, supervised dimension reduction

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Authors: Cemil Kutluturk

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This is a comparative study of the incarnation of God according to Hinduism and Christianity. After dealing with their basic ideas on the concept of the incarnation of God, the main similarities and differences between each other will be examined by quoting references from their sacred texts. In Hinduism, the term avatara is used in order to indicate the concept of the incarnation of God. The word avatara is derived from ava (down) and tri (to cross, to save, attain). Thus avatara means to come down or to descend. Although an avatara is commonly considered as an appearance of any deity on earth, the term refers particularly to descents of Vishnu. According to Hinduism, God becomes an avatara in every age and entering into diverse wombs for the sake of establishing righteousness. On the Christian side, the word incarnation means enfleshment. In Christianity, it is believed that the Logos or Word, the Second Person of Trinity, presumed human reality. Incarnation refers both to the act of God becoming a human being and to the result of his action, namely the permanent union of the divine and human natures in the one Person of the Word. When the doctrines of incarnation and avatara are compared some similarities and differences can be found between each other. The basic similarity is that both doctrines are not bound by the laws of nature as human beings are. They reveal God’s personal love and concern, and emphasize loving devotion. Their entry into the world is generally accompanied by extraordinary signs. In both cases, the descent of God allows for human beings to ascend to God. On the other hand, there are some distinctions between two religious traditions. For instance, according to Hinduism there are many and repeated avataras, while Christ comes only once. Indeed, this is related to the respective cyclic and linear worldviews of the two religions. Another difference is that in Hinduism avataras are real and perfect, while in Christianity Christ is also real, yet imperfect; that is, he has human imperfections, except sin. While Christ has never been thought of as a partial incarnation, in Hinduism there are some partial and full avataras. The other difference is that while the purpose of Christ is primarily ultimate salvation, not every avatara grants ultimate liberation, some of them come only to save a devotee from a specific predicament.

Keywords: Avatara, Christianity, Hinduism, incarnation

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Authors: Daniel Assefa, Engeda Dessalegn, Chetan Chauhan

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Moringa stenopetala is a socioeconomic valued tree that is widely available and cultivated in the Southern part of Ethiopia. The leaves have been traditionally used as a food source with high nutritional and medicinal values. The present work was carried out to evaluate the effect of thermal treatment on the total phenolic content, antioxidant and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of aqueous leaf extracts during maceration and different decoction time interval (5, 10 and 15 min). The total phenolic content was determined by the Folin-ciocalteu methods whereas antioxidant activities were determined by 2,2-diphenyl-1-picryl-hydrazyl(DPPH) radical scavenging, reducing power and ferrous ion chelating assays and alpha-amylase inhibition activity was determined using 3,5-dinitrosalicylic acid method. Total phenolic content ranged from 34.35 to 39.47 mgGAE/g. Decoction for 10 min extract showed ferrous ion chelating (92.52), DPPH radical scavenging (91.52%), alpha-amylase inhibition (69.06%) and ferric reducing power (0.765), respectively. DPPH, reducing power and alpha-amylase inhibition activities showed positive linear correlation (R2=0.853, R2= 0.857 and R2=0.930), respectively with total phenolic content but ferrous ion chelating activity was found to be weakly correlated (R2=0.481). Based on the present investigation, it could be concluded that major loss of total phenolic content, antioxidant and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of the crude leaf extracts of Moringa stenopetala leaves were observed at decoction time for 15 min. Therefore, to maintain the total phenolic content, antioxidant, and alpha-amylase inhibition activities of leaves, cooking practice should be at the optimum decoction time (5-10 min).

Keywords: alpha-amylase inhibition, antioxidant, Moringa stenopetala, total phenolic content

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Authors: Mojtaba Barzegar, Alireza Shirazi, Saied Rabi Mahdavi

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Intraoperative radiation therapy (IORT) is an innovative treatment modality that the delivery of a large single dose of radiation to the tumor bed during the surgery. The radiotherapy success depends on the absorbed dose delivered to the tumor. The achievement better accuracy in patient treatment depends upon the measured dose by standard dosimeter such as ionization chamber, but because of the high density of electric charge/pulse produced by the accelerator in the ionization chamber volume, the standard correction factor for ion recombination Ksat calculated with the classic two-voltage method is overestimated so the use of dose/pulse independent dosimeters such as chemical Fricke and ethanol chlorobenzene (ECB) dosimeters have been suggested. Dose measurement is usually calculated and calibrated in the Zmax. Ksat calculated by comparison of ion chamber response and ECB dosimeter at each applicator degree, size, and dose. The relative output factors for IORT applicators have been calculated and compared with experimentally determined values and the results simulated by Monte Carlo software. The absorbed doses have been calculated and measured with statistical uncertainties less than 0.7% and 2.5% consecutively. The relative differences between calculated and measured OF’s were up to 2.5%, for major OF’s the agreement was better. In these conditions, together with the relative absorbed dose calculations, the OF’s could be considered as an indication that the IORT electron beams have been well simulated. These investigations demonstrate the utility of the full Monte Carlo simulation of accelerator head with ECB dosimeter allow us to obtain detailed information of clinical IORT beams.

Keywords: intra operative radiotherapy, ethanol chlorobenzene, ksat, output factor, monte carlo simulation

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Authors: Mohamed El Morsy, Gabriela Achtenová

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Condition monitoring is used to increase machinery availability and machinery performance, whilst reducing consequential damage, increasing machine life, reducing spare parts inventories, and reducing breakdown maintenance. An efficient condition monitoring system provides early warning of faults by predicting them at an early stage. When a localized fault occurs in gears, the vibration signals always exhibit non-stationary behavior. The periodic impulsive feature of the vibration signal appears in the time domain and the corresponding gear mesh frequency (GMF) emerges in the frequency domain. However, one limitation of frequency-domain analysis is its inability to handle non-stationary waveform signals, which are very common when machinery faults occur. Particularly at the early stage of gear failure, the GMF contains very little energy and is often overwhelmed by noise and higher-level macro-structural vibrations. An effective signal processing method would be necessary to remove such corrupting noise and interference. In this paper, a new hybrid method based on optimal Morlet wavelet filter and autocorrelation enhancement is presented. First, to eliminate the frequency associated with interferential vibrations, the vibration signal is filtered with a band-pass filter determined by a Morlet wavelet whose parameters are selected or optimized based on maximum Kurtosis. Then, to further reduce the residual in-band noise and highlight the periodic impulsive feature, an autocorrelation enhancement algorithm is applied to the filtered signal. The test stand is equipped with three dynamometers; the input dynamometer serves as the internal combustion engine, the output dynamometers induce a load on the output joint shaft flanges. The pitting defect is manufactured on the tooth side of a gear of the fifth speed on the secondary shaft. The gearbox used for experimental measurements is of the type most commonly used in modern small to mid-sized passenger cars with transversely mounted powertrain and front wheel drive: a five-speed gearbox with final drive gear and front wheel differential. The results obtained from practical experiments prove that the proposed method is very effective for gear fault diagnosis.

Keywords: wavelet analysis, pitted gear, autocorrelation, gear fault diagnosis

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Authors: Sibashish Baksi, Ujjaini Sarkar, Sudeshna Saha

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In the present study, hydrolysis of Pinus roxburghi wood powder was carried out with Viscozyme, and kinetics of the hydrolysis has been investigated. Finely ground sawdust is submerged into 2% aqueous peroxide solution (pH=11.5) and pretreated through autoclaving, probe sonication, and alkaline peroxide pretreatment. Afterward, the pretreated material is subjected to hydrolysis. A chain of experiments was executed with delignified biomass (50 g/l) and varying enzyme concentrations (24.2–60.5 g/l). In the present study, 14.32 g/l of glucose, along with 7.35 g/l of xylose, have been recovered with a viscozyme concentration of 48.8 g/l and the same condition was treated as optimum condition. Additionally, thermal deactivation of viscozyme has been investigated and found to be gradually decreasing with escalated enzyme loading from 48.4 g/l (dissociation constant= 0.05 h⁻¹) to 60.5 g/l (dissociation constant= 0.02 h⁻¹). The hydrolysis reaction is a pseudo first-order reaction, and therefore, the rate of the hydrolysis can be expressed as a fractal-like kinetic equation that communicates between the product concentration and hydrolytic time t. It is seen that the value of rate constant (K) increases from 0.008 to 0.017 with augmented enzyme concentration from 24.2 g/l to 60.5 g/l. Greater value of K is associated with stronger enzyme binding capacity of the substrate mass. However, escalated concentration of supplied enzyme ensures improved interaction with more substrate molecules resulting in an enhanced de-polymerization of the polymeric sugar chains per unit time which eventually modifies the physiochemical structure of biomass. All fractal dimensions are in between 0 and 1. Lower the value of fractal dimension, more easily the biomass get hydrolyzed. It can be seen that with increased enzyme concentration from 24.2 g/l to 48.4 g/l, the values of fractal dimension go down from 0.1 to 0.044. This indicates that the presence of more enzyme molecules can more easily hydrolyze the substrate. However, an increased value has been observed with a further increment of enzyme concentration to 60.5g/l because of diffusional limitation. It is evident that the hydrolysis reaction system is a heterogeneous organization, and the product formation rate depends strongly on the enzyme diffusion resistances caused by the rate-limiting structures of the substrate-enzyme complex. Value of the rate constant increases from 1.061 to 2.610 with escalated enzyme concentration from 24.2 to 48.4 g/l. As the rate constant is proportional to Fick’s diffusion coefficient, it can be assumed that with a higher concentration of enzyme, a larger amount of enzyme mass dM diffuses into the substrate through the surface dF per unit time dt. Therefore, a higher rate constant value is associated with a faster diffusion of enzyme into the substrate. Regression analysis of time curves with various enzyme concentrations shows that diffusion resistant constant increases from 0.3 to 0.51 for the first two enzyme concentrations and again decreases with enzyme concentration of 60.5 g/l. During diffusion in a differential scale, the enzyme also experiences a greater resistance during diffusion of larger dM through dF in dt.

Keywords: viscozyme, glucose, fractal kinetics, thermal deactivation

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Authors: Lakmali Anthony, Madeline Gillies

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Background: Incisional and ventral hernias are highly prevalent, with primary ventral hernias occurring in approximately 20% of adults and incisional hernias developing in up to 30% of midline abdominal incisions. Recent data from the United States have shown an increasing incidence of elective incisional and ventral hernia repair (IVHR) and emergency repair of complicated hernias. This study examines Australian population trends in IVHR over a two-decade study period. Methods: This retrospective study was performed using procedure data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and population data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics captured between 2000 and 2021 to calculate incidence rates per 100,000 population by age and sex for selected subcategories of IVHR operations. Trends over time were evaluated using simple linear regression. Results: There were 809,308 IVHR operations performed in Australia during the study period. The cumulative incidence adjusted for the population was 182 per 100,000; this increased by 9.578 per year during the study period (95% CI = 8.431- 10.726, p<.001). IVHR for primary umbilical hernias experienced the most significant increase in population-adjusted incidence, 1.177 per year. (95% CI = 0.654- 1.701, p<.001). Emergency IVHR for incarcerated, obstructed, and strangulated hernias increased by 0.576 per year (95% CI = 0.510 -0.642, p<.001). Only 20.2% of IVHR procedures were performed as day surgery. Conclusions: Australia has seen a significant increase in IVHR operations performed in the last 20 years, particularly those for primary ventral hernias. IVHR for hernias complicated by incarceration, obstruction, and strangulation also increased significantly. The proportion of IVHR operations performed as day surgery is well below the target set by the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons. With the increasing incidence of IVHR operations and an increasing proportion of these being emergent, elective IVHR should be performed as day surgery when it is safe.

Keywords: ventral, incisional, hernia, trends

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Authors: Usarat Thawornchaisit, Kamalasiri Juthaisong, Kasama Parsongjeen, Phonsiri Phoengchan

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In this study, sludge samples that were collected from the wastewater treatment plant of a printed circuit board manufacturing industry in Thailand were subjected to acid extraction using sulfuric acid as the chemical extracting agent. The effects of sulfuric acid concentration (A), the ratio of a volume of acid to a quantity of sludge (B) and extraction time (C) on the efficiency of copper extraction were investigated with the aim of finding the optimal conditions for maximum removal of copper from the wastewater treatment sludge. Factorial experimental design was employed to model the copper extraction process. The results were analyzed statistically using analysis of variance to identify the process variables that were significantly affected the copper extraction efficiency. Results showed that all linear terms and an interaction term between volume of acid to quantity of sludge ratio and extraction time (BC), had statistically significant influence on the efficiency of copper extraction under tested conditions in which the most significant effect was ascribed to volume of acid to quantity of sludge ratio (B), followed by sulfuric acid concentration (A), extraction time (C) and interaction term of BC, respectively. The remaining two-way interaction terms, (AB, AC) and the three-way interaction term (ABC) is not statistically significant at the significance level of 0.05. The model equation was derived for the copper extraction process and the optimization of the process was performed using a multiple response method called desirability (D) function to optimize the extraction parameters by targeting maximum removal. The optimum extraction conditions of 99% of copper were found to be sulfuric acid concentration: 0.9 M, ratio of the volume of acid (mL) to the quantity of sludge (g) at 100:1 with an extraction time of 80 min. Experiments under the optimized conditions have been carried out to validate the accuracy of the Model.

Keywords: acid treatment, chemical extraction, sludge, waste management

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Authors: Luís Marques, João Rocha, Andreia Fernandes, Maria Moura, Cláudia Caseiro, Filipa Figueiredo, João Nunes

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The implementation of circularity strategies other than recycling, such as reducing the amount of raw material, as well as reusing or sharing existing products, remains marginal. The European Commission announced that the transition towards a more circular economy could lead to the net creation of about 700,000 jobs in Europe by 2030, through additional labour demand from recycling plants, repair services and other circular activities. Efforts to create new circular business models in accordance with completely circular processes, as opposed to linear ones, have increased considerably in recent years. In order to create a societal Circular Economy transition model, it is necessary to include innovative solutions, where startups play a key role. Early-stage startups based on new business models according to circular processes often face difficulties in creating enough impact. The StartUp Zero Program designs a model and approach to increase the flow of startups in the Circular Economy field, focusing on a systemic decision analysis and multi-generational approach, considering Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to support a decision-making tool, which is also supported by the use of a combination of an Analytical Hierarchy Process and Multi-Attribute Value Theory methods. We define principles, criteria and indicators for evaluating startup prerogatives, quantifying the evaluation process in a unique result. Additionally, this entrepreneurship program spanning 16 months involved more than 2400 young people, from ages 14 to 23, in more than 200 interaction activities.

Keywords: circular economy, entrepreneurship, startups;, multi-criteria decision analysis

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Authors: Arash Parehkar, S. Jamshid Mousavi, Shoubo Bayazidi, Vahid Karami, Laleh Shahidi, Arash Azaranfar, Ali Moridi, M. Shabakhti, Tayebeh Ariyan, Mitra Tofigh, Kaveh Masoumi, Alireza Motahari

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Water resource systems modelling have constantly been a challenge through history for human being. As the innovative methodological development is evolving alongside computer sciences on one hand, researches are likely to confront more complex and larger water resources systems due to new challenges regarding increased water demands, climate change and human interventions, socio-economic concerns, and environment protection and sustainability. In this research, an automatic calibration scheme has been applied on the Gilan’s large-scale water resource model using mathematical programming. The water resource model’s calibration is developed in order to attune unknown water return flows from demand sites in the complex Sefidroud irrigation network and other related areas. The calibration procedure is validated by comparing several gauged river outflows from the system in the past with model results. The calibration results are pleasantly reasonable presenting a rational insight of the system. Subsequently, the unknown optimized parameters were used in a basin-scale linear optimization model with the ability to evaluate the system’s performance against a reduced inflow scenario in future. Results showed an acceptable match between predicted and observed outflows from the system at selected hydrometric stations. Moreover, an efficient operating policy was determined for Sefidroud dam leading to a minimum water shortage in the reduced inflow scenario.

Keywords: auto-calibration, Gilan, large-scale water resources, simulation

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Said Rashid Aal Abdulsallam

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The purpose of this paper is to measure ISO 9001:2008 effectiveness and determines its impact on the performance dimensions in terms of service quality, operational performance and customer satisfaction from the perspectives of both service providers and receivers. The paper is based on an empirical study carried out on all the ISO 9001:2008 certified departments in the Ministry of Education in the Sultanate of Oman. Data were obtained from the certified departments and their equivalent clients through two structured online questionnaires. Exploratory factor analyses are applied to extract the underlying factors of the indicators of ISO 9001 objectives and performance dimensions. Multiple linear regression analyses are also applied in order to determine the impact of ISO 9001 effectiveness on the performance dimensions of the certified departments. The study sample includes all the ISO 9001 certified departments in the Ministry of Education. The study instruments used target both the service providers as well as the service receivers with the purpose of alleviating the subjective nature of the data collected from the service providers who may be biased in favour of ISO 9001 quality management system or their performance. The findings of the study verify the effectiveness of the application of ISO 9001:2008 quality management system. Additionally, the study reveals that the ISO 9001 certified departments have achieved the ISO 9001 the standard's objectives including prevention of nonconformities, continuous improvement and customer satisfaction focus at different rates. The study also proves that there is a significant relation between the achievement of the ISO 9001 standard objectives and the operational performance of the departments. Even though the operational performance service quality of the ISO 9001 certified departments has substantially improved from the perspective of the departments, the customer satisfaction has not notably increased from the perspective of the service receivers.

Keywords: iso 9001, customer satisfaction, operational performance, public organization, quality management

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Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

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Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu

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The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.

Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones

Procedia PDF Downloads 278