Search results for: district unit plan

Authors: S. Moustafa El Shanawany, I. Labib Salem, F. Mohamed Magdy Badr El Dine, H. Tag El Deen Abd Allah

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Thermal injuries remain a global health problem and a common issue encountered in forensic pathology. They are a devastating cause of morbidity and mortality in children and adults especially in developing countries, causing permanent disfigurement, scarring and grievous hurt. Burns have always been a matter of legal concern in cases of suicidal burns, self-inflicted burns for false accusation and homicidal attempts. Assessment of burn injuries as well as rating permanent disabilities and disfigurement following thermal injuries for the benefit of compensation claims represents a challenging problem. This necessitates the development of reliable scoring systems to yield an expected likelihood of permanent disability or fatal outcome following burn injuries. The study was designed to identify the risk factors of mortality in acute burn patients and to evaluate the applicability of FLAMES (Fatality by Longevity, APACHE II score, Measured Extent of burn, and Sex) and BOBI (Belgian Outcome in Burn Injury) model scores in predicting the outcome. The study was conducted on 100 adult patients with acute burn injuries admitted to the Burn Unit of Alexandria Main University Hospital, Egypt from October 2014 to October 2015. Victims were examined after obtaining informed consent and the data were collected in specially designed sheets including demographic data, burn details and any associated inhalation injury. Each burn patient was assessed using both BOBI and FLAMES scoring systems. The results of the study show the mean age of patients was 35.54±12.32 years. Males outnumbered females (55% and 45%, respectively). Most patients were accidently burnt (95%), whereas suicidal burns accounted for the remaining 5%. Flame burn was recorded in 82% of cases. As well, 8% of patients sustained more than 60% of total burn surface area (TBSA) burns, 19% of patients needed mechanical ventilation, and 19% of burnt patients died either from wound sepsis, multi-organ failure or pulmonary embolism. The mean length of hospital stay was 24.91±25.08 days. The mean BOBI score was 1.07±1.27 and that of the FLAMES score was -4.76±2.92. The FLAMES score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.95 which was significantly higher than that of the BOBI score (0.883). A statistically significant association was revealed between both predictive models and the outcome. The study concluded that both scoring systems were beneficial in predicting mortality in acutely burnt patients. However, the FLAMES score could be applied with a higher level of accuracy.

Keywords: BOBI, burns, FLAMES, scoring systems, outcome

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Authors: Melissa Langevin, Natalie Ward, Colleen Fitzgibbons, Christa Ramsey, Melanie Hogue, Anna Theresa Lobos

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Description: Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is used by health care teams to examine adverse events (AEs) to identify causes which then leads to recommendations for prevention Despite widespread use, RCA has limitations. Best practices have not been established for implementing recommendations or tracking the impact of interventions after AEs. During phase 1 of this study, we used simulation to analyze two fictionalized AEs that occurred in hospitalized paediatric patients to identify and understand how the errors occurred and generated recommendations to mitigate and prevent recurrences. Scenario A involved an error of commission (inpatient drug error), and Scenario B involved detecting an error that already occurred (critical care drug infusion error). Recommendations generated were: improved drug labeling, specialized drug kids, alert signs and clinical checklists. Aim: Use simulation to optimize interventions recommended post critical event analysis prior to implementation in the clinical environment. Methods: Suggested interventions from Phase 1 were designed and tested through scenario simulation in the clinical environment (medicine ward or pediatric intensive care unit). Each scenario was simulated 8 times. Recommendations were tested using different, voluntary teams and each scenario was debriefed to understand why the error was repeated despite interventions and how interventions could be improved. Interventions were modified with subsequent simulations until recommendations were felt to have an optimal effect and data saturation was achieved. Along with concrete suggestions for design and process change, qualitative data pertaining to employee communication and hospital standard work was collected and analyzed. Results: Each scenario had a total of three interventions to test. In, scenario 1, the error was reproduced in the initial two iterations and mitigated following key intervention changes. In scenario 2, the error was identified immediately in all cases where the intervention checklist was utilized properly. Independently of intervention changes and improvements, the simulation was beneficial to identify which of these should be prioritized for implementation and highlighted that even the potential solutions most frequently suggested by participants did not always translate into error prevention in the clinical environment. Conclusion: We conclude that interventions that help to change process (epinephrine kit or mandatory checklist) were more successful at preventing errors than passive interventions (signage, change in memory aids). Given that even the most successful interventions needed modifications and subsequent re-testing, simulation is key to optimizing suggested changes. Simulation is a safe, practice changing modality for institutions to use prior to implementing recommendations from RCA following AE reviews.

Keywords: adverse events, patient safety, pediatrics, root cause analysis, simulation

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Authors: Asad Hanif, Pavithra Parthasarathy, Zongjin Li

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Thermal insulating composites help to reduce the total power consumption in a building by creating a barrier between external and internal environment. Such composites can be used in the roofing tiles or wall panels for exterior surfaces. This study purposes to develop lightweight cement-based composites for thermal insulating applications. Waste materials like silica fume (an industrial by-product) and fly ash cenosphere (FAC) (hollow micro-spherical shells obtained as a waste residue from coal fired power plants) were used as partial replacement of cement and lightweight filler, respectively. Moreover, aerogel, a nano-porous material made of silica, was also used in different dosages for improved thermal insulating behavior, while poly vinyl alcohol (PVA) fibers were added for enhanced toughness. The raw materials including binders and fillers were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), X-Ray Fluorescence spectroscopy (XRF), and Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET) analysis techniques in which various physical and chemical properties of the raw materials were evaluated like specific surface area, chemical composition (oxide form), and pore size distribution (if any). Ultra-lightweight cementitious composites were developed by varying the amounts of FAC and aerogel with 28-day unit weight ranging from 1551.28 kg/m³ to 1027.85 kg/m³. Excellent mechanical and thermal insulating properties of the resulting composites were obtained ranging from 53.62 MPa to 8.66 MPa compressive strength, 9.77 MPa to 3.98 MPa flexural strength, and 0.3025 W/m-K to 0.2009 W/m-K as thermal conductivity coefficient (QTM-500). The composites were also tested for peak temperature difference between outer and inner surfaces when subjected to heating (in a specially designed experimental set-up) by a 275W infrared lamp. The temperature difference up to 16.78 ^oC was achieved, which indicated outstanding properties of the developed composites to act as a thermal barrier for building envelopes. Microstructural studies were carried out by Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) for characterizing the inner structure of the composite specimen. Also, the hydration products were quantified using the surface area mapping and line scale technique in EDS. The microstructural analyses indicated excellent bonding of FAC and aerogel in the cementitious system. Also, selective reactivity of FAC was ascertained from the SEM imagery where the partially consumed FAC shells were observed. All in all, the lightweight fillers, FAC, and aerogel helped to produce the lightweight composites due to their physical characteristics, while exceptional mechanical properties, owing to FAC partial reactivity, were achieved.

Keywords: aerogel, cement-based, composite, fly ash cenosphere, lightweight, sustainable development, thermal conductivity

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Authors: Shinji Ukita, Naohiro Nakamura, Yuji Miyazu

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In considering the dynamic characteristics of structure, natural frequency and damping ratio are useful indicator. When performing dynamic design, it's necessary to select an appropriate initial damping model and hysteretic model. In the linear region, the setting of initial damping model influences the response, and in the nonlinear region, the combination of initial damping model and hysteretic model influences the response. However, the dynamic characteristics of structure in the nonlinear region remain unclear. In this paper, we studied the effect of setting of initial damping model and hysteretic model on the dynamic characteristics of structure. On initial damping model setting, Initial stiffness proportional, Tangent stiffness proportional, and Rayleigh-type were used. On hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model were used. As a study method, dynamic analysis was performed using a lumped mass model of base-fixed. During analysis, the maximum acceleration of input earthquake motion was gradually increased from 1 to 600 gal. The dynamic characteristics were calculated using the ARX model. Then, the characteristics of 1st and 2nd natural frequency and 1st damping ratio were evaluated. Input earthquake motion was simulated wave that the Building Center of Japan has published. On the building model, an RC building with 30×30m planes on each floor was assumed. The story height was 3m and the maximum height was 18m. Unit weight for each floor was 1.0t/m2. The building natural period was set to 0.36sec, and the initial stiffness of each floor was calculated by assuming the 1st mode to be an inverted triangle. First, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of initial damping model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the 1st and 2nd natural frequency decreased, and the 1st damping ratio increased. Then, in the natural frequency, the difference due to initial damping model setting was small, but in the damping ratio, a significant difference was observed (Initial stiffness proportional≒Rayleigh type>Tangent stiffness proportional). The acceleration and the displacement of the earthquake response were largest in the tangent stiffness proportional. In the range where the acceleration response increased, the damping ratio was constant. In the range where the acceleration response was constant, the damping ratio increased. Next, we investigated the difference of the dynamic characteristics depending on the difference of hysteretic model setting. With the increase in the maximum acceleration of the input earthquake motions, the natural frequency decreased in TAKEDA model, but in Normal-trilinear model, the natural frequency didn’t change. The damping ratio in TAKEDA model was higher than that in Normal-trilinear model, although, both in TAKEDA model and Normal-trilinear model, the damping ratio increased. In conclusion, in initial damping model setting, the tangent stiffness proportional was evaluated the most. In the hysteretic model setting, TAKEDA model was more appreciated than the Normal-trilinear model in the nonlinear region. Our results would provide useful indicator on dynamic design.

Keywords: initial damping model, damping ratio, dynamic analysis, hysteretic model, natural frequency

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Authors: Reem Alajmi, Hind Al Harbi, Tahany Ayaad, Zainab Al Musawi

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Hard ticks Hyalomma spp. (family: Ixodidae) are obligate ectoparasite in their all life stages on some domestic animals mainly camels and cattle. Ticks may lead to many economic and public health problems because of their blood feeding behavior. Also, they act as vectors for many bacterial, viral and protozoan agents which may cause serious diseases such as tick-born encephalitis, Rocky-mountain spotted fever, Q-fever and Lyme disease which can affect human and/or animals. In the present study, molecular identification of ticks that attack camels in Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia based on the partial sequence of mitochondrial 16s rRNA gene was applied. Also, the present study aims to detect natural infections of collected camel ticks with Rickessia spp. and Borelia spp. using PCR/hybridization of Citrate synthase encoding gene present in bacterial cells. Hard ticks infesting camels were collected from different camels located in a farm in Riyadh region, Saudi Arabia. Results of the present study showed that the collected specimens belong to two species: Hyalomma dromedari represent 99% of the identified specimens and Hyalomma marginatum which account for 1 % of identified ticks. The molecular identification was made through blasting the obtained sequence of this study with sequences already present and identified in GeneBank. All obtained sequences of H. dromedarii specimens showed 97-100% identity with the same gene sequence of the same species (Accession # L34306.1) which was used as a reference. Meanwhile, no intraspecific variations of H. marginatum mesured because only one specimen was collected. Results also had shown that the intraspecific variability between individuals of H. dromedarii obtained in 92 % of samples ranging from 0.2- 6.6%, while the remaining 7 % of the total samples of H. dromedarii showed about 10.3 % individual differences. However, the interspecific variability between H. dromedarii and H. marginatum was approximately 18.3 %. On the other hand, by using the technique of PCR/hybridization, we could detect natural infection of camel ticks with Rickettsia spp. and Borrelia spp. Results revealed the natural presence of both bacteria in collected ticks. Rickettsial spp. infection present in 29% of collected ticks, while 35% of collected specimen were infected with Borrelia spp. The valuable results obtained from the present study are a new record for the molecular identification of camel ticks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and their natural infection with both Rickettsia spp. and Borrelia spp. These results may help scientists to provide a good and direct control strategy of ticks in order to protect one of the most important economic animals which are camels. Also results of this project spotlight on the disease that might be transmitted by ticks to put out a direct protective plan to prevent spreading of these dangerous agents. Further molecular studies are needed to confirm the results of the present study by using other mitochondrial and nuclear genes for tick identification.

Keywords: Camel ticks, Rickessia spp. , Borelia spp. , mitochondrial 16s rRNA gene

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Authors: Danjuma Bawa

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This paper aimed at exploring the capabilities of Location-Allocation model in complementing the strides of the existing physical planning models in the location and distribution of facilities for regional consumption. The paper was designed to provide a blueprint to the Nigerian government and other donor agencies especially the Fertilizer Distribution Initiative (FDI) by the federal government for the revitalization of the terrorism ravaged regions. Theoretical underpinnings of central place theory related to spatial distribution, interrelationships, and threshold prerequisites were reviewed. The study showcased how Location-Allocation Model (L-AM) alongside Central Place Theory (CPT) was applied in Geographic Information System (GIS) environment to; map and analyze the spatial distribution of settlements; exploit their physical and economic interrelationships, and to explore their hierarchical and opportunistic influences. The study was purely spatial qualitative research which largely used secondary data such as; spatial location and distribution of settlements, population figures of settlements, network of roads linking them and other landform features. These were sourced from government ministries and open source consortium. GIS was used as a tool for processing and analyzing such spatial features within the dictum of CPT and L-AM to produce a comprehensive spatial digital plan for equitable and judicious location and distribution of fertilizer deports in the study area in an optimal way. Population threshold was used as yardstick for selecting suitable settlements that could stand as service centers to other hinterlands; this was accomplished using the query syntax in ArcMapTM. ArcGISTM’ network analyst was used in conducting location-allocation analysis for apportioning of groups of settlements around such service centers within a given threshold distance. Most of the techniques and models ever used by utility planners have been centered on straight distance to settlements using Euclidean distances. Such models neglect impedance cutoffs and the routing capabilities of networks. CPT and L-AM take into consideration both the influential characteristics of settlements and their routing connectivity. The study was undertaken in two terrorism ravaged Local Government Areas of Adamawa state. Four (4) existing depots in the study area were identified. 20 more depots in 20 villages were proposed using suitability analysis. Out of the 300 settlements mapped in the study area about 280 of such settlements where optimally grouped and allocated to the selected service centers respectfully within 2km impedance cutoff. This study complements the giant strides by the federal government of Nigeria by providing a blueprint for ensuring proper distribution of these public goods in the spirit of bringing succor to these terrorism ravaged populace. This will ardently at the same time help in boosting agricultural activities thereby lowering food shortage and raising per capita income as espoused by the government.

Keywords: central place theory, GIS, location-allocation, network analysis, urban and regional planning, welfare economics

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Authors: Munir Kassa, Mengistu Hailemariam, Meghan Obermeyer, Kefelegn Baruda, Yonas Getachew, Asnakech Dessie

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Improving the quality of sexual and reproductive health services that women receive is expected to have an impact on women’s satisfaction with the services, on their continued use and, ultimately, on their ability to achieve their fertility goals or reproductive intentions. Surprisingly, however, there is little empirical evidence of either whether this expectation is correct, or how best to improve service quality within sexual and reproductive health programs so that these impacts can be achieved. The Recent focus on quality has prompted more physicians to do quality improvement work, but often without the needed skill sets, which results in poorly conceived and ultimately unsuccessful improvement initiatives. As this renders the work unpublishable, it further impedes progress in the field of health care improvement and widens the quality chasm. Moreover, since 2014, the Center for International Reproductive Health Training (CIRHT) has worked diligently with 11 teaching hospitals across Ethiopia to increase access to contraception and abortion care services. This work has included improving pre-service training through education and curriculum development, expanding hands-on training to better learn critical techniques and counseling skills, and fostering a “team science” approach to research by encouraging scientific exploration. This is the first time this systematic approach has been applied and documented to improve access to high-quality services in Ethiopia. The purpose of this article is to report initiatives undertaken, and findings concluded by the clinical service team at CIRHT in an effort to provide a pragmatic approach to quality improvement projects. An audit containing nearly 300 questions about several aspects of patient care, including structure, process, and outcome indicators was completed by each teaching hospital’s quality improvement team. This baseline audit assisted in identifying major gaps and barriers, and each team was responsible for determining specific quality improvement aims and tasks to support change interventions using Shewart’s Cycle for Learning and Improvement (the Plan-Do-Study-Act model). To measure progress over time, quality improvement teams met biweekly and compiled monthly data for review. Also, site visits to each hospital were completed by the clinical service team to ensure monitoring and support. The results indicate that applying an evidence-based, participatory approach to quality improvement has the potential to increase the accessibility and quality of services in a short amount of time. In addition, continued ownership and on-site support are vital in promoting sustainability. This approach could be adapted and applied in similar contexts, particularly in other African countries.

Keywords: abortion, contraception, quality improvement, service provision

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Authors: Maria Krambia-Kapardis, Andreas Kapardis

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The paper discusses regulatory and legislative measures implemented by various nations in an effort to avert another financial crisis. More specifically, to address the financial crisis, the European Commission followed the practice of other developed countries and implemented a European Economic Recovery Plan in an attempt to overhaul the regulatory and supervisory framework of the financial sector. In 2010 the Commission introduced the European Systemic Risk Board and in 2011 the European System of Financial Supervision. Some experts advocated that the type and extent of financial regulation introduced in the European crisis in the wake of the 2008 crisis has been excessive and counterproductive. In considering how different countries responded to the financial crisis, global regulators have shown a more focused commitment to combat industry misconduct and to pre-empt abusive behavior. Regulators have also increased funding and resources at their disposal; have increased regulatory fines, with an increasing trend towards action against individuals; and, finally, have focused on market abuse and market conduct issues. Financial regulation can be effected, first of all, through legislation. However, neither ex ante or ex post regulation is by itself effective in reducing systemic risk. Consequently, to avert a financial crisis, in their endeavor to achieve both economic efficiency and financial stability, governments need to balance the two approaches to financial regulation. Fiduciary duty is another means by which the behavior of actors in the financial world is constrained and, thus, regulated. Furthermore, fiduciary duties extend over and above other existing requirements set out by statute and/or common law and cover allegations of breach of fiduciary duty, negligence or fraud. Careful analysis of the etiology of the 2008 financial crisis demonstrates the great importance of corporate governance as a way of regulating boardroom behavior. In addition, the regulation of professions including accountants and auditors plays a crucial role as far as the financial management of companies is concerned. In the US, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 established the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board in order to protect investors from financial accounting fraud. In most countries around the world, however, accounting regulation consists of a legal framework, international standards, education, and licensure. Accounting regulation is necessary because of the information asymmetry and the conflict of interest that exists between managers and users of financial information. If a holistic approach is to be taken then one cannot ignore the regulation of legislators themselves which can take the form of hard or soft legislation. The science of averting a financial crisis is yet to be perfected and this, as shown by the preceding discussion, is unlikely to be achieved in the foreseeable future as ‘disaster myopia’ may be reduced but will not be eliminated. It is easier, of course, to be wise in hindsight and regulating unreasonably risky decisions and unethical or outright criminal behavior in the financial world remains major challenges for governments, corporations, and professions alike.

Keywords: financial crisis, legislation, regulation, financial regulation

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Authors: Odirachukwu S. Mwim, Tana Pistorius

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Since the early 1990s political and economic pressures have been mounted on policy and law makers to increase patent protection by raising the protection standards. The perception of the relation between patent protection and development, particularly economic development, has evolved significantly in the past few years. Debate on patent protection in the international arena has been significantly influenced by the perception that there is a strong link between patent protection and economic development. The level of patent protection determines the extent of development that can be achieved. Recently there has been a paradigm shift with a lot of emphasis on extending patent protection to method of doing business generally referred to as Business Method Patenting (BMP). The general perception among international organizations and the private sectors also indicates that there is a strong correlation between BMP protection and economic growth. There are two diametrically opposing views as regards the relation between Intellectual Property (IP) protection and development and innovation. One school of thought promotes the view that IP protection improves economic development through stimulation of innovation and creativity. The other school advances the view that IP protection is unnecessary for stimulation of innovation and creativity and is in fact a hindrance to open access to resources and information required for innovative and creative modalities. Therefore, different theories and policies attach different levels of protection to BMP which have specific implications for economic growth. This study examines the impact of BMP protection on development by focusing on the challenges confronting economic growth in African communities as a result of the new paradigm in patent law. (Africa is used as a single unit in this study but this should not be construed as African homogeneity. Rather, the views advanced in this study are used to address the common challenges facing many communities in Africa). The study reviews (from the point of views of legal philosophers, policy makers and decisions of competent courts) the relevant literature, patent legislation particularly the International Treaty, policies and legal judgments. Findings from this study suggest that over and above the various criticisms levelled against the extreme liberal approach to the recognition of business methods as patentable subject matter, there are other specific implications that are associated with such approach. The most critical implication of extending patent protection to business methods is the locking-up of knowledge which may hamper human development in general and economic development in particular. Locking up knowledge necessary for economic advancement and competitiveness may have a negative effect on economic growth by promoting economic exclusion, particularly in African communities. This study suggests that knowledge of BMP within the African context and the extent of protection linked to it is crucial in achieving a sustainable economic growth in Africa. It also suggests that a balance is struck between the two diametrically opposing views.

Keywords: Africa, business method patenting, economic growth, intellectual property, patent protection

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Authors: Men An Pan, Hong Ren Chen, Chih Heng Shih, Hsing Yuan Yen

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Pingtung County is located in the southernmost region of Taiwan. During the winter season, pollutants due to insufficient dispersion caused by the downwash of the northeast monsoon lead to the poor air quality of the County. Through the implementation of various control methods, including the application of permits of air pollution, fee collection of air pollution, control oil fume of catering sectors, smoke detection of diesel vehicles, regular inspection of locomotives, and subsidies for low-polluting vehicles. Moreover, to further mitigate the air pollution, additional alternative controlling strategies are also carried out, such as construction site control, prohibition of open-air agricultural waste burning, improvement of river dust, and strengthening of road cleaning operations. The combined efforts have significantly reduced air pollutants in the County. However, in order to effectively and promptly monitor the ambient air quality, the County has subsequently deployed micro-sensors, with a total of 400 IoTs (Internet of Things) micro-sensors for PM2.5 and VOC detection and 3 air quality monitoring stations of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), covering 33 townships of the County. The covered area has more than 1,300 listed factories and 5 major industrial parks; thus forming an Internet of Things (IoTs) based multi-level air quality monitoring system. The results demonstrate that the IoTs multi-level air quality sensors combined with other strategies such as “sand and gravel dredging area technology monitoring”, “banning open burning”, “intelligent management of construction sites”, “real-time notification of activation response”, “nighthawk early bird plan with micro-sensors”, “unmanned aircraft (UAV) combined with land and air to monitor abnormal emissions”, and “animal husbandry odour detection service” etc. The satisfaction improvement rate of air control, through a 2021 public survey, reached a high percentage of 81%, an increase of 46% as compared to 2018. For the air pollution complaints for the whole year of 2021, the total number was 4213 in contrast to 7088 in 2020, a reduction rate reached almost 41%. Because of the spatial-temporal features of the air quality monitoring IoTs system by the application of microsensors, the system does assist and strengthen the effectiveness of the existing air quality monitoring network of the EPA and can provide real-time control of the air quality. Therefore, the hot spots and potential pollution locations can be timely determined for law enforcement. Hence, remarkable results were obtained for the two years. That is, both reduction of public complaints and better air quality are successfully achieved through the implementation of the present IoTs system for real-time air quality monitoring throughout Pingtung County.

Keywords: IoT, PM, air quality sensor, air pollution, environmental monitoring

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Authors: Antoni Grau, Yolanda Bolea, Alberto Sanfeliu

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Mobile robots can be used in many different applications, including mapping, search, rescue, reconnaissance, hazard detection, and carpet cleaning, exploration, etc. However, they are limited due to their reliance on traditional energy sources such as electricity and oil which cannot always provide a convenient energy source in all situations. In an ever more eco-conscious world, solar energy offers the most environmentally clean option of all energy sources. Electricity presents threats of pollution resulting from its production process, and oil poses a huge threat to the environment. Not only does it pose harm by the toxic emissions (for instance CO2 emissions), it produces the combustion process necessary to produce energy, but there is the ever present risk of oil spillages and damages to ecosystems. Solar energy can help to mitigate carbon emissions by replacing more carbon intensive sources of heat and power. The challenge of this work is to propose the design and the implementation of electric battery recharge stations. Those recharge docks are based on the use of renewable energy such as solar energy (with photovoltaic panels) with the object to reduce the CO2 emissions. In this paper, a comparative study of the CO2 emission productions (from the use of different energy sources: natural gas, gas oil, fuel and solar panels) in the charging process of the Segway PT batteries is carried out. To make the study with solar energy, a photovoltaic panel, and a Buck-Boost DC/DC block has been used. Specifically, the STP005S-12/Db solar panel has been used to carry out our experiments. This module is a 5Wp-photovoltaic (PV) module, configured with 36 monocrystalline cells serially connected. With those elements, a battery recharge station is made to recharge the robot batteries. For the energy storage DC/DC block, a series of ultracapacitors have been used. Due to the variation of the PV panel with the temperature and irradiation, and the non-integer behavior of the ultracapacitors as well as the non-linearities of the whole system, authors have been used a fractional control method to achieve that solar panels supply the maximum allowed power to recharge the robots in the lesser time. Greenhouse gas emissions for production of electricity vary due to regional differences in source fuel. The impact of an energy technology on the climate can be characterised by its carbon emission intensity, a measure of the amount of CO2, or CO2 equivalent emitted by unit of energy generated. In our work, the coal is the fossil energy more hazardous, providing a 53% more of gas emissions than natural gas and a 30% more than fuel. Moreover, it is remarkable that existing fossil fuel technologies produce high carbon emission intensity through the combustion of carbon-rich fuels, whilst renewable technologies such as solar produce little or no emissions during operation, but may incur emissions during manufacture. The solar energy thus can help to mitigate carbon emissions.

Keywords: autonomous robots, CO2 emissions, DC/DC buck-boost, solar energy

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Authors: Shivani Thakur, Jasmin Dominguez Cervantes, Ahmed Zabiba, Fatima Zabiba, Sandhini Agarwal, Kamalpreet Kaur, Hussein Maatouk, Shae Chand, Omar Madriz, Tiffany Huang, Saloni Bansal

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Contraceptives are an effective public health achievement, allowing for family planning and reducing the risk of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). California’s rural Central Valley has high rates of teenage pregnancy and STDs. Factors affecting contraceptive usage here may include religious concerns, financial issues, and regional variations in the accessibility and availability of contraceptives. The increasing population and diversity of the Central Valley make the understanding of the determinants of unintended pregnancy and STDs increasingly nuanced. Patients in California’s Central Valley were surveyed at 6 surgical clinics to assess attitudes toward contraceptives. The questionnaire consisted of demographics and 14 Likert-scale statements investigating patients’ feelings regarding contraceptives. Parametric and non-parametric analysis was performed on the Likert statements. A correlation matrix for the Likert-scale statements was used to evaluate the strength of the relationship between each question. 76 patients aged 18-75 years completed the questionnaire. 90% of the participants were female, 76% Hispanic, 36% married, 44% with an income range between 30-60K, and 83% were between childbearing ages. 60% of participants stated they are currently using or had used some type of contraceptive. 25% of participants had at least one unplanned pregnancy. The most common type of contraceptives used were oral contraceptives(28%) and condoms(38%). The top reasons for patients’ contraceptive usage were: prevention of pregnancy (72%), safe sex/prevention of STDs (32%), and regulation of menstrual cycle (19%). Further analysis of Likert responses revealed that contraception usage increased due to approval of contraceptives (x̄=3.98, σ =1.02); partner approval of contraceptives (x̄=3.875, σ =1.16); and reduced anxiety about pregnancy (x̄=3.875, σ =1.23). Younger females (18-34 years old) agreed more with the statement that the cost of contraceptive supplies is too expensive than older females (35-75 years old), (x̄=3.2, σ = 1.4 vs x̄=2.8, σ =1.3, p<0.05). Younger females (44%) were also more likely to use short-acting contraceptive methods (oral and male condoms) compared to older females (64%) who use long-acting methods (implants/ intrauterine devices). 51% of Hispanic females were using some type of contraceptive. Of those Hispanic females who do not use contraceptives, 33% stated having no children, and all plan to have at least one child in the future. 35% of participants had a bachelor's degree. Those with bachelor’s degrees were more likely to use contraceptives, 58% vs 51%, p<0.05, and less likely to have unplanned pregnancy, 50% vs. 12%, p<0.01. There is increasing use and awareness among patients in rural settings concerning contraceptives. Our finding shows that younger women and women with higher educational attainment tend to have more positive attitudes towards the use of contraceptives. This work gives physicians an understanding of patients’ concerns about contraceptive methods and offers insight into culturally competent intervention programs that respect individual values.

Keywords: contraceptives, public health, rural california, women of child baring age

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Authors: Taylor Harris

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Gustilo-anderson grade III tibial fractures are exquisitely difficult injuries to manage as they require extensive soft tissue repair in addition to fracture fixation. These injuries are best managed collaboratively by Orthopedic and Plastic surgeons. While utilizing an Orthoplastics approach has decreased the rates of adverse outcomes in these injuries, there is a large amount of variation in exactly how an Orthoplastics team approaches complex cases such as these. It is sometimes recommended that definitive bone fixation and soft tissue coverage be completed simultaneously in a single-stage manner, but there is a paucity of large scale studies to provide evidence to support this recommendation. It is the aim of this study to report the outcomes of a single-stage "fix-and-flap" approach through a systematic review of the available literature. Hopefully, this better informs an evidence-based Orthoplastics approach to managing open tibial fractures. Systematic review of the literature was performed. Medline and Google Scholar were used and all studies published since 2000, in English were included. 103 studies were initially evaluated for inclusion. Reference lists of all included studies were also examined for potentially eligible studies. Gustilo grade III tibial shaft fractures in adults that were managed with a single-stage Orthoplastics approach were identified and evaluated with regard to outcomes of interest. Exclusion criteria included studies with patients <16 years old, case studies, systemic reviews, meta-analyses. Primary outcomes of interest were the rates of deep infections and rates of limb salvage. Secondary outcomes of interest included time to bone union, rates of non-union, and rates of re-operation. 15 studies were eligible. 11 of these studies reported rates of deep infection as an outcome, with rates ranging from 0.98%-20%. The pooled rate between studies was 7.34%. 7 studies reported rates of limb salvage with a range of 96.25%-100%. The pooled rate of the associated studies was 97.8%. 6 reported rates of non-union with a range of 0%-14%, a pooled rate of 6.6%. 6 reported time to bone union with a range of 24 to 40.3 weeks and a pooled average time of 34.2 weeks, and 4 reported rates of reoperation ranging from 7%-55%, with a pooled rate of 31.1%. A few studies that compared a single stage to a multi stage approach side-by-side unanimously favored the single stage approach. Outcomes of Gustilo grade III open tibial fractures utilizing an Orthoplastics approach that is specifically done in a single-stage produce low rates of adverse outcomes. Large scale studies of Orthoplastic collaboration that were not completed in strictly a single stage, or were completed in multiple stages, have not reported as favorable outcomes. We recommend that not only should Orthopedic surgeons and Plastic surgeons collaborate in the management of severe open tibial fracture, but they should plan to undergo definitive fixation and coverage in a single-stage for improved outcomes.

Keywords: orthoplastic, gustilo grade iii, single-stage, trauma, systematic review

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Authors: Robert E. Kenney, Richard B. Aguilar, Efrain Antunez, Gregory Schor-Haskin, Rafael Rey, Catie Falcon, Luis Arce

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This study sought to explore the effect of Sarapin injections on chronic knee pain (CKP). Many adults suffer from CKP which is most often attributed to osteoarthritis. Current treatment regimens for CKP involve the use NSAIDS medications, injections with steroids/analgesic, platelet rich plasma injections, or orthopedic surgical interventions. Sarapin is a commercially available homeopathic aqueous extract from the pitcher plant. Studies on the use of Sarapin as a treatment for cervical, thoracic, and lumbosacral facet joint nerve blocks have been performed with mixed results. There is little available evidence on the use of Sarapin in CKP. This study examines the effect of a series of 3 weekly injections of aqueous Sarapin in 95 elderly patients with CKP in a primary care setting. Cano Health, a primary care group, identified 95 successive patients with CKP from its multimodal physiotherapy program for chronic pain. Patients underwent evaluation by a clinician, underwent diagnostic Xrays of the knees, and the treatment plan with three weekly Sarapin injections was discussed. A pain and functional limitation survey (a modified Lower Extremity Functional Scale (mLEFS)) was administered prior to initiating treatment (Entry Survey (ES)). Each patient received an intraarticular injection of 2 cc of aqueous Sarapin with 1cc 1% lidocaine during weeks 1, 2 and 3. The mLEFS was administered again at week 4, one week after the third Sarapin injection (Exit Survey (ExS)). Demographics: Mean Age 62 +/- 9.8; 73% female; 89% Hispanic/Latino; mean time between ES and ExS was 27.5 +/-8.2 days. Survey: The mLEFS was based on a published Lower Extremity Functional Scale and each patient rated their pain or functional limitation from 0 (no difficulty) to 5 (severe difficulty) for 10 questions. Answers were summed and compared. Maximum score for severe difficulty would be 50 points. Results: Mean pain/functional scores: ES was 30.3 +/-12.1 and ExS was 19.5 +/- 12.5. This represents a relative improvement of 35.7% (P<0.00001). A total of 81% (77/95) of the patients showed improvement in symptoms at week four as assessed by the mLEFS. There were 11 patients who reported an increase in their survey scores while 7 patients reported no change. When evaluating the cohort that reported improvement, the ES was 30.9 +/-11.4 and ExS was 16.3 +/-9.8 yielding a 47.2% relative improvement (P<0.00001). Injections were well tolerated, and no adverse events were reported. Conclusions: In this cohort of 95 elderly patients with CKP, treatment with 3 weekly injections of Sarapin significantly improved pain and function as assessed by a mLEFS survey. The majority (81%) of patients responded positively to therapy, 12% had worsening symptoms and 7% reported no change. The use of intraarticular injections of Sarapin for CKP was shown to be an effective modality of treatment. Sarapin’s low cost, tolerability, and ease of use make it an attractive alternative to NSAIDS, steroids, PRP or surgical intervention for this common debilitating condition.

Keywords: Sarapin, intraarticular, chronic knee pain, osteoarthritis

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Authors: Chinwe Okpoko, Vivian Atasie

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One of the leading causes of death amongst women of child-bearing age in southeast Nigeria is pregnancy. Women in the reproductive age group die at a higher rate than men of the same age bracket. Furthermore, most maternal deaths occur among poor women who live in rural communities, and who generally fall within the low socio-economic group in society. Failure of policy makers and the media to create the strategic awareness and communication that conform with the sensibilities of this group account, in part, for the persistence of this malaise. Family planning (FP) is an essential component of safe motherhood, which is designed to ensure that women receive high-quality care to achieve an optimum level of health of mother and infant. The aim is to control the number of children a woman can give birth to and prevent maternal and child mortality and morbidity. This is what sustainable development goal (SDG) health target of World Health Organization (WHO) also strives to achieve. FP programmes reduce exposure to the risks of child-bearing. Indeed, most maternal deaths in the developing world can be prevented by fully investing simultaneously in FP and maternal and new-born care. Given the intrinsic value of communication in health care delivery, it is vital to adopt the most efficacious means of awareness creation and communication amongst rural women in FP. In a country where over 50% of her population resides in rural areas with attendant low-level profile standard of living, the need to communicate health information like FP through indigenous channels becomes pertinent. Interpersonal communication amongst family, friends, religious groups and other associations, is an efficacious means of communicating social issues in rural Africa. Communication in informal settings identifies with the values and social context of the recipients. This study therefore sought to determine the place of interpersonal communication on the knowledge of rural women on FP and how it influences uptake of FP. Descriptive survey design was used in the study, with interviewer administered questionnaire constituting the instrument for data collection. The questionnaire was administered on 385 women from rural communities in southeast Nigeria. The results show that majority (58.5%) of the respondents agreed that interpersonal communication helps women understand how to plan their family size. Many rural women (82%) prefer the short term natural method to the more effective modern contraceptive methods (38.1%). Husbands’ approval of FP, as indicated in the Mean response of 2.56, is a major factor that accounts for the adoption of FP messages among rural women. Socio-demographic data also reveal that educational attainment and/or exposure influenced women’s acceptance or otherwise of FP messages. The study, therefore, recommends amongst others, the targeting of husbands in subsequent FP communication interventions, since they play major role on contraceptive usage.

Keywords: family planning, interpersonal communication, interpersonal interaction, traditional communication

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Authors: Olasunkanmi Olapeju

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A large chunk of global population are not yet connected to water borne faecal management systems that rely on flush mechanisms and sewers networks that are linked with a central treatment plant. Only about 10% of sub-Saharan African countries are connected to central sewage systems. In Nigeria, majority of the population do not only depend on on-plot sanitation systems, a huge chunk do not also have access to safe and improved toilets. Apart from the organizational challenges and technical capacity, the other major factors that account for why faecal waste management is yet unimproved in developing countries are faulty planning frameworks that fail to maintain balance between urbanization dynamics and infrastructures, and misconceptions about what modern sanitation is all about. In most cases, the quest to implement developmental patterns that integrate modern sewers based sanitation systems have huge financial and political costs. Faecal waste management in poor countries largely lacks the needed political attention and budgetary prioritization. Yet, the on-plot sanitation systems being mainly relied upon the need to be managed in a manner that is sustainable and healthy, pending when development would embrace a more sustainable off-site central sewage system. This study is aimed at investigating existing strategies for managing on-plot sanitation systems’ faecal waste in Ogun state, Nigeria, with the aim of recommending sustainable sanitation management systems. The study adopted the convergent parallel variant of the mixed-mode technique, which involves the adoption of both quantitative and qualitative method of data collection. Adopting a four-level multi-stage approach, which is inclusive of all political divisions in the study area, a total of 330 questionnaires were respectively administered in the study area. Moreover, the qualitative data adopted the purposive approach in scoping down to 33 key informants. SPSS software (Version 22.0) was employed for descriptively analysis. The study shows that about 52% of households adopt the non-recovery management (NRM) means of burying their latrines with sand sludge shrinkage with chemicals such as carbides. The dominance of the non-recovery management means seriously constrains the quest for faecal resource recovery. Essentially, the management techniques adopted by households depend largely on the technology of their sanitary containments, emptying means available, the ability of households to pay for the cost of emptying, and the social acceptability of the reusability of faecal waste, which determines faecal resource recoverability. The study suggests that there is a need for municipal authorities in the study area to urgently intervene in the sanitation sector and consider it a key element of the planning process. There is a need for a comprehensive plan that would ensure a seamless transition to the adoption of a modern sanitation management system.

Keywords: faecal, management, planning, waste, sanitation, sustainability

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Authors: Tomasz Balabanski, Anna Biedunkiewicz

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Research on basic bacteriological and physicochemical parameters conducted by state institutions (Provincial Sanitary and Epidemiological Station and District Sanitary and Epidemiological Station) are limited to bathing waters under constant sanitary and epidemiological supervision. Unfortunately, no routine or monitoring tests are carried out for the presence of microfungi. This also applies to beach sand used for recreational purposes. The purpose of the planned own research was to determine the diversity of the mycobiota present on supervised and unsupervised sandy beaches, on the shores of lakes, of municipal baths used for recreation. The research material consisted of microfungi isolated from April to October 2019 from sandy beaches of supervised and unsupervised lakes located within the administrative boundaries of the city of Olsztyn (North-Eastern Poland, Europe). Four lakes, out of the fifteen available (Tyrsko, Kortowskie, Skanda, and Ukiel), whose bathing waters are subjected to routine bacteriological tests, were selected for testing. To compare the diversity of the mycobiota composition on the surface and below the sand mixing layer, samples were taken from two depths (10 cm and 50 cm), using a soil auger. Micro-fungi from sand samples were obtained by surface inoculation on an RBC medium from the 1st dilution (1:10). After incubation at 25°C for 96-144 h, the average number of CFU/dm³ was counted. Morphologically differing yeast colonies were passaged into Sabouraud agar slants with gentamicin and incubated again. For detailed laboratory analyses, culture methods (macro- and micro-cultures) and identification methods recommended in diagnostic mycological laboratories were used. The conducted research allowed obtaining 140 yeast isolates. The total average population ranged from 1.37 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ before the bathing season (April 2019), 1.64 × 10⁻³ CFU/dm³ in the season (May-September 2019), and 1.60 × 10⁻² CFU/dm³ after the end of the season (October 2019). More microfungi were obtained from the surface layer of sand (100 isolates) than from the deeper layer (40 isolates). Reported microfungi may circulate seasonally between individual elements of the lake ecosystem. From the sand/soil from the catchment area beaches, they can get into bathing waters, stopping periodically on the coastal phyllosphere. The sand of the beaches and the phyllosphere are a kind of filter for the water reservoir. The presence of microfungi with various pathogenicity potential in these places is of major epidemiological importance. Therefore, full monitoring of not only recreational waters but also sandy beaches should be treated as an element of constant control by appropriate supervisory institutions, allowing recreational areas for public use so that the use of these places does not involve the risk of infection. Acknowledgment: 'Development Program of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn', POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17, co-financed by the European Union under the European Social Fund from the Operational Program Knowledge Education Development. Tomasz Bałabański is a recipient of a scholarship from the Programme Interdisciplinary Doctoral Studies in Biology and Biotechnology (POWR.03.05.00-00-Z310/17), which is funded by the 'European Social Fund'.

Keywords: beach, microfungi, sand, yeasts

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Authors: Canan Gunay Yazici, Zubeyir Sarı, Devrim Tarakci

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Background: Hippotherapy considered as global techniques used in rehabilitation of children with cerebral palsy as it improved gait pattern, balance, postural control, balance and gross motor skills development but it encounters some problems (such as the excess of the cost of horses' care, nutrition, housing). Hippotherapy simulator is being developed in recent years to overcome these problems. These devices aim to create the effects of hippotherapy made with a real horse on patients by simulating the movements of a real horse. Objectives: To evaluate the efficacy of hippotherapy simulator on gross motor functions, sitting postural control and dynamic balance of children with cerebral palsy (CP). Methods: Fourteen children with CP, aged 6–15 years, seven with a diagnosis of spastic hemiplegia, five of diplegia, two of triplegia, Gross Motor Function Classification System level I-III. The Horse Riding Simulator (HRS), including four-speed program (warm-up, level 1-2-3), was used for hippotherapy simulator. Firstly, each child received Neurodevelopmental Therapy (NDT; 45min twice weekly eight weeks). Subsequently, the same children completed HRS+NDT (30min and 15min respectively, twice weekly eight weeks). Children were assessed pre-treatment, at the end of 8th and 16th week. Gross motor function, sitting postural control, dynamic sitting and standing balance were evaluated by Gross Motor Function Measure-88 (GMFM-88, Dimension B, D, E and Total Score), Trunk Impairment Scale (TIS), Pedalo® Sensamove Balance Test and Pediatric Balance Scale (PBS) respectively. Unit of Scientific Research Project of Marmara University supported our study. Results: All measured variables were a significant increase compared to baseline values after both intervention (NDT and HRS+NDT), except for dynamic sitting balance evaluated by Pedalo®. Especially HRS+NDT, increase in the measured variables was considerably higher than NDT. After NDT, the Total scores of GMFM-88 (mean baseline 62,2 ± 23,5; mean NDT: 66,6 ± 22,2; p < 0,05), TIS (10,4 ± 3,4; 12,1 ± 3; p < 0,05), PBS (37,4 ± 14,6; 39,6 ± 12,9; p < 0,05), Pedalo® sitting (91,2 ± 6,7; 92,3 ± 5,2; p > 0,05) and Pedalo® standing balance points (80,2 ± 10,8; 82,5 ± 11,5; p < 0,05) increased by 7,1%, 2%, 3,9%, 5,2% and 6 % respectively. After HRS+NDT treatment, the total scores of GMFM-88 (mean baseline: 62,2 ± 23,5; mean HRS+NDT: 71,6 ± 21,4; p < 0,05), TIS (10,4 ± 3,4; 15,6 ± 2,9; p < 0,05), PBS (37,4 ± 14,6; 42,5 ± 12; p < 0,05), Pedalo® sitting (91,2 ± 6,7; 93,8 ± 3,7; p > 0,05) and standing balance points (80,2 ± 10,8; 86,2 ± 5,6; p < 0,05) increased by 15,2%, 6%, 7,3%, 6,4%, and 11,9%, respectively, compared to the initial values. Conclusion: Neurodevelopmental therapy provided significant improvements in gross motor functions, sitting postural control, sitting and standing balance of children with CP. When the hippotherapy simulator added to the treatment program, it was observed that these functions were further developed (especially with gross motor functions and dynamic balance). As a result, this pilot study showed that the hippotherapy simulator could be a useful alternative to neurodevelopmental therapy for the improvement of gross motor function, sitting postural control and dynamic balance of children with CP.

Keywords: balance, cerebral palsy, hippotherapy, rehabilitation

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Authors: Frederick Huie, Lauren Fusfeld, William Burchenal, Scott Howell, Alyssa McVey, Thomas F. Goss

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Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is a degenerative brain disease characterized by memory loss and cognitive decline that presents a substantial economic burden for patients and health insurers in the US. This study evaluates the payer budget impact of the DISCERN™ test in the diagnosis and management of patients with symptoms of dementia evaluated for AD. DISCERN™ comprises three assays that assess critical factors related to AD that regulate memory, formation of synaptic connections among neurons, and levels of amyloid plaques and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain and can provide a quicker, more accurate diagnosis than tests in the current diagnostic pathway (CDP). An Excel-based model with a three-year horizon was developed to assess the budget impact of DISCERN™ compared with CDP in a Medicare Advantage plan with 1M beneficiaries. Model parameters were identified through a literature review and were verified through consultation with clinicians experienced in diagnosis and management of AD. The model assesses direct medical costs/savings for patients based on the following categories: •Diagnosis: costs of diagnosis using DISCERN™ and CDP. •False Negative (FN) diagnosis: incremental cost of care avoidable with a correct AD diagnosis and appropriately directed medication. •True Positive (TP) diagnosis: AD medication costs; cost from a later TP diagnosis with the CDP versus DISCERN™ in the year of diagnosis, and savings from the delay in AD progression due to appropriate AD medication in patients who are correctly diagnosed after a FN diagnosis.•False Positive (FP) diagnosis: cost of AD medication for patients who do not have AD. A one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the effect of varying key clinical and cost parameters ±10%. An additional scenario analysis was developed to evaluate the impact of individual inputs. In the base scenario, DISCERN™ is estimated to decrease costs by $4.75M over three years, equating to approximately $63.11 saved per test per year for a cohort followed over three years. While the diagnosis cost is higher with DISCERN™ than with CDP modalities, this cost is offset by the higher overall costs associated with CDP due to the longer time needed to receive a TP diagnosis and the larger number of patients who receive a FN diagnosis and progress more rapidly than if they had received appropriate AD medication. The sensitivity analysis shows that the three parameters with the greatest impact on savings are: reduced sensitivity of DISCERN™, improved sensitivity of the CDP, and a reduction in the percentage of disease progression that is avoided with appropriate AD medication. A scenario analysis in which DISCERN™ reduces the utilization for patients of computed tomography from 21% in the base case to 16%, magnetic resonance imaging from 37% to 27% and cerebrospinal fluid biomarker testing, positive emission tomography, electroencephalograms, and polysomnography testing from 4%, 5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, in the base case to 0%, results in an overall three-year net savings of $14.5M. DISCERN™ improves the rate of accurate, definitive diagnosis of AD earlier in the disease and may generate savings for Medicare Advantage plans.

Keywords: Alzheimer’s disease, budget, dementia, diagnosis.

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Authors: Kali Prasad Sarma, Sanghita Dutta

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Deepor Beel (DB), the lone Ramsar site and an important wetland of the Brahmaputra valley in the state of Assam. The local people from fourteen peripheral villages traditionally utilize the wetland for harvesting vegetables, flowers, aquatic seeds, medicinal plants, fish, molluscs, fodder for domestic cattle etc. Therefore, it is of great importance to understand the concentration and distribution of trace metals in water-sediment system of the beel in order to protect its ecological environment. DB lies between26°05′26′′N to 26°09′26′′N latitudes and 90°36′39′′E to 91°41′25′′E longitudes. Water samples from the surface layer of water up to 40cm deep and sediment samples from the top 5cm layer of surface sediments were collected. The trace metals in waters and sediments were analysed using ICP-OES. The organic Carbon was analysed using the TOC analyser. The different mineral present in the sediments were confirmed by X-ray diffraction method (XRD). SEM images were recorded for the samples using SEM, attached with energy dispersive X-ray unit, with an accelerating voltage of 20 kv. All the statistical analyses were performed using SPSS20.0 for windows. In the present research, distribution, source apportionment, temporal and spatial variability, extent of pollution and the ecological risk of eight toxic trace metals in sediments and water of DB were investigated. The average concentrations of chromium(Cr) (both the seasons), copper(Cu) and lead(Pb) (pre-monsoon) and zinc(Zn) and cadmium(Cd) (post-monsoon) in sediments were higher than the consensus based threshold concentration(TEC). The persistent exposure of toxic trace metals in sediments pose a potential threat, especially to sediment dwelling organisms. The degree of pollution in DB sediments for Pb, Cobalt (Co) Zn, Cd, Cr, Cu and arsenic (As) was assessed using Enrichment Factor (EF), Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). The results indicated that contamination of surface sediments in DB is dominated by Pb and Cd and to a lesser extent by Co, Fe, Cu, Cr, As and Zn. A significant positive correlation among the pairs of element Co/Fe, Zn/As in water, and Cr/Zn, Fe/As in sediments indicates similar source of origin of these metals. The effects of interaction among trace metals between water and sediments shows significant variations (F =94.02, P < 0.001), suggesting maximum mobility of trace metals in DB sediments and water. The source apportionment of the heavy metals was carried out using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). SEM-EDS detects the presence of Cd, Cu, Cr, Zn, Pb, As and Fe in the sediment sample. The average concentration of Cd, Zn, Pb and As in the bed sediments of DB are found to be higher than the crustal abundance. The EF values indicate that Cd and Pb are significantly enriched. From source apportionment studies of the eight metals using PCA revealed that Cd was anthropogenic in origin; Pb, As, Cr, and Zn had mixed sources; whereas Co, Cu and Fe were natural in origin.

Keywords: Deepor Beel, enrichment factor, principal component analysis, trace metals

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Authors: Merav Meiron-Goren, Orna Braun-Lewensohn, Tal Litvak-Hirsh

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In recent years, there has been an increasing tendency towards separation and divorce in relationships. Nevertheless, many couples in a first marriage do not anticipate this as a probable possibility and do not make any preparation for it. Same sex couples establishing a family encounter a much more complicated situation than do heterosexual couples. Although there is a trend towards legal recognition of same sex marriage, many countries, including Israel, do not recognize it. The absence of legal recognition or the existence of partial recognition creates complexity for these couples. They have to fight for their right to establish a family, like the recognition of the biological child of a woman, as a child of her woman spouse too, or the option of surrogacy for a male couple who want children, and more. The lack of legal recognition is burden on the lives of these couples. In the absence of clear norms regarding the conduct of the family unit, the couples must define for themselves the family structure, and deal with everyday dilemmas that lack institutional solutions. This may increase the friction between the two couple members, and it is one of the factors that make it difficult for them to maintain the relationship. This complexity exists, perhaps even more so, in separation. The end of relationship is often accompanied by a deep crisis, causing pain and stress. In most cases, there are also other conflicts that must be settled. These are more complicated when rights are in doubt or do not exist at all. Complex issues for separating same sex couples may include matters of property, recognition of parenthood, and care and support for the children. The significance of the study is based on the fact that same sex relationships are becoming more and more widespread, and are an integral part of the society. Even so, there is still an absence of research focusing on such relationships and their ending. The objective of the study is to research the perceptions of same sex couples regarding the possibility of separation, preparing for it, conflict management and resolving disputes through the separation process. It is also important to understand the point of view of couples that have gone through separation, how they coped with the emotional and practical difficulties involved in the separation process. The doctoral research will use a qualitative research method in a phenomenological approach, based on semi-structured in-depth interviews. The interviewees will be divided into three groups- at the beginning of a relationship, during the separation crisis and after separation, with a time perspective, with about 10 couples from each group. The main theoretical model serving as the basis of the study will be the Lazarus and Folkman theory of coping with stress. This model deals with the coping process, including cognitive appraisal of an experience as stressful, appraisal of the coping resources, and using strategies of coping. The strategies are divided into two main groups, emotion-focused forms of coping and problem-focused forms of coping.

Keywords: conflict management, coping, legal recognition, same-sex relationship, separation

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Authors: Georges Ghazi, Magali Gelhaye, Ruxandra Botez

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Over the years, the Flight Management System (FMS) has experienced a continuous improvement of its many features, to the point of becoming the pilot’s primary interface for flight planning operation on the airplane. With the assistance of the FMS, the concept of distance and time has been completely revolutionized, providing the crew members with the determination of the optimized route (or flight plan) from the departure airport to the arrival airport. To accomplish this function, the FMS needs an accurate Aircraft Performance Model (APM) of the aircraft. In general, APMs that equipped most modern FMSs are established before the entry into service of an individual aircraft, and results from the combination of a set of ordinary differential equations and a set of performance databases. Unfortunately, an aircraft in service is constantly exposed to dynamic loads that degrade its flight characteristics. These degradations endow two main origins: airframe deterioration (control surfaces rigging, seals missing or damaged, etc.) and engine performance degradation (fuel consumption increase for a given thrust). Thus, after several years of service, the performance databases and the APM associated to a specific aircraft are no longer representative enough of the actual aircraft performance. It is important to monitor the trend of the performance deterioration and correct the uncertainties of the aircraft model in order to improve the accuracy the flight management system predictions. The basis of this research lies in the new ability to continuously update an Aircraft Performance Model (APM) during flight using an adaptive lookup table technique. This methodology was developed and applied to the well-known Cessna Citation X business aircraft. For the purpose of this study, a level D Research Aircraft Flight Simulator (RAFS) was used as a test aircraft. According to Federal Aviation Administration the level D is the highest certification level for the flight dynamics modeling. Basically, using data available in the Flight Crew Operating Manual (FCOM), a first APM describing the variation of the engine fan speed and aircraft fuel flow w.r.t flight conditions was derived. This model was next improved using the proposed methodology. To do that, several cruise flights were performed using the RAFS. An algorithm was developed to frequently sample the aircraft sensors measurements during the flight and compare the model prediction with the actual measurements. Based on these comparisons, a correction was performed on the actual APM in order to minimize the error between the predicted data and the measured data. In this way, as the aircraft flies, the APM will be continuously enhanced, making the FMS more and more precise and the prediction of trajectories more realistic and more reliable. The results obtained are very encouraging. Indeed, using the tables initialized with the FCOM data, only a few iterations were needed to reduce the fuel flow prediction error from an average relative error of 12% to 0.3%. Similarly, the FCOM prediction regarding the engine fan speed was reduced from a maximum error deviation of 5.0% to 0.2% after only ten flights.

Keywords: aircraft performance, cruise, trajectory optimization, adaptive lookup tables, Cessna Citation X

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Authors: Ashok Kumar Lonavath, V. Sathish Kumar

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Urban sprawl is the uncontrolled and uncoordinated outgrowth of towns and cities. The process of urban sprawl can be described by change in pattern over time, like proportional increase in built-up surface to population leading to rapid urban spatial expansion. Significant economic and livelihood opportunities in the urban areas results in lack of basic amenities due to the unplanned growth The patterns, processes, dynamic causes and consequences of sprawl can be explored and designed with the help of spatial planning support system. In India context the urban area is defined as the population more than 5000, density more than 400 persons per sq. km and 75% of the population is involved in non-agricultural occupations. India’s urban population is increasing at the rate of 2.35% pa. The class I town’s population of India according to 2011 census is 18.8% that accounts for 60.4% of total unban population. Similarly in Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh it is 22.9% which accounts for 68.8% of total urban population. Suryapet town has historical recognition as ‘Gate Way of Telangana’ in the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh. The Municipality was constituted in 1952 as Grade-III, later upgraded into Grade-II in 1984 and to Grade-I in 1998. The area is 35 Sq.kms. Three major tanks located in three different directions and Musi River is flowing from a distance of 8 kms. The average ground water table is about 50m below ground. It is a fast growing town with a population of 1, 06,805 and 25,448 households. Density is 3051pp sq km, It is a Class I city as per population census. It secured the ISO 14001-2004 certificate for establishing and maintaining an environment-friendly system for solid waste disposal. It is the first municipality in the country to receive such a certificate. It won HUDCO award under environment management, award of appreciation and cash from Ministry of Housing and Poverty Elevation from Government of India and undivided Andhra Pradesh under UN Human Settlement Programme, Greentech Excellance award, Supreme Courts appreciation for solid waste management. Foreign delegates from different countries and also from various other states of India visited Suryapet municipality for study tour and training programs as part of their official visit Suryapet is located at 17°5’ North Latitude and 79°37’ East Longitude. The average elevation is 266m, annual mean temperature is 36°C and average rainfall is 821.0 mm. The people of this town are engaged in Commercial and agriculture activities hence the town has become a centre for marketing and stocking agricultural produce. It is also educational centre in this region. The present paper on urban sprawl is a theoretical framework to analyze the interaction of planning and governance on the extent of outgrowth and level of services. The GIS techniques, SOI Toposheet, satellite imageries and image analysis techniques are extensively used to explore the sprawl and measure the urban land-use. This paper concludes outlining the challenges in addressing urban sprawl while ensuring adequate level of services that planning and governance have to ensure towards achieving sustainable urbanization.

Keywords: remote sensing, GIS, urban sprawl, urbanization

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Authors: Parvesh Singh, Vipan Kumar, Vishu Mehra

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Quinoline-4-ones represent an important class of heterocyclic scaffolds that have attracted significant interest due to their various biological and pharmacological activities. This heterocyclic unit also constitutes an integral component in drugs used for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, sleep disorders and in antibiotics viz. norfloxacin and ciprofloxacin. The synthetic accessibility and possibility of fictionalization at varied positions in quinoline-4-ones exemplifies an elegant platform for the designing of combinatorial libraries of functionally enriched scaffolds with a range of pharmacological profles. They are also considered to be attractive precursors for the synthesis of medicinally imperative molecules such as non-steroidal androgen receptor antagonists, antimalarial drug Chloroquine and martinellines with antibacterial activity. 2-Aryl-2,3-dihydroquinolin-4(1H)-ones are present in many natural and non-natural compounds and are considered to be the aza-analogs of favanones. The β-lactam class of antibiotics is generally recognized to be a cornerstone of human health care due to the unparalleled clinical efficacy and safety of this type of antibacterial compound. In addition to their biological relevance as potential antibiotics, β-lactams have also acquired a prominent place in organic chemistry as synthons and provide highly efficient routes to a variety of non-protein amino acids, such as oligopeptides, peptidomimetics, nitrogen-heterocycles, as well as biologically active natural and unnatural products of medicinal interest such as indolizidine alkaloids, paclitaxel, docetaxel, taxoids, cyptophycins, lankacidins, etc. A straight forward route toward the synthesis of quinoline-4-ones via the triflic acid assisted Fries rearrangement of N-aryl-βlactams has been reported by Tepe and co-workers. The ring expansion observed in this case was solely attributed to the inherent ring strain in β-lactam ring because -lactam failed to undergo rearrangement under reaction conditions. Theabovementioned protocol has been recently extended by our group for the synthesis of benzo[b]-azocinon-6-ones via a tandem Michael addition–Fries rearrangement of sorbyl anilides as well as for the single-pot synthesis of 2-aryl-quinolin-4(3H)-ones through the Fries rearrangement of 3-dienyl-βlactams. In continuation with our synthetic endeavours with the β-lactam ring and in view of the lack of convenient approaches for the synthesis of C-3 functionalized quinolin-4(1H)-ones, the present work describes the single-pot synthesis of C-3 functionalized quinolin-4(1H)-ones via the trific acid promoted Fries rearrangement of C-3 vinyl/isopropenyl substituted β-lactams. In addition, DFT calculations and MD simulations were performed to investigate the stability profles of synthetic compounds.

Keywords: dihydroquinoline, fries rearrangement, azetidin-2-ones, quinoline-4-ones

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Authors: Marie-Helena Docherty, Sion Edryd Williams

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The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing worldwide. In Sub-Saharan Africa, type 2 diabetes represents over 90% of all types of diabetes with the number of diabetic patients expected to rise. This represents a huge economic burden in an area already contending with high rates of other significant diseases, including the highest worldwide prevalence of HIV. Diabetic complications considerably impact on morbidity and mortality. The epidemiological data for the region quotes high rates of retinopathy (7-63%), neuropathy (27-66%) and microalbuminuria (10-83%). It is therefore imperative that diabetic screening programmes are established. It is recognised that in many parts of the developing world the implementation and management of such programmes is limited by a lack of available resources. The International Diabetes Federation produced guidelines in 2012 taking these limitations into account suggesting that all diabetic patients should have access to basic screening. These guidelines are consistent with the national diabetic guidelines produced by the Lesotho Medical Council. However, diabetic care in Lesotho is delivered at the local level, with variable levels of quality. A cross sectional study was performed in the outpatient department of Maluti Hospital in Mapoteng, Lesotho, a busy rural hospital in the Berea district. Demographic data on gender, age and modality of treatment were collected over a six-week time period. Information regarding 3 basic screening parameters was obtained. These parameters included eye screening (defined as a documented ophthalmology review within the last 12 months), foot screening (defined as a documented foot health assessment by any health care professional within the last 12 months) and secondary prevention (defined as a documented blood pressure and lipid profile reading within the last 12 months). These parameters were selected on the basis of the absolute minimum level of resources in Maluti Hospital. Renal screening was excluded, as the hospital does not have access to reliable renal profile checks or urinalysis. There is however a fully functioning on-site ophthalmology department run by a senior ophthalmologist with the ability to provide retinal photography, retinal surgery and photocoagulation therapy. Data was collected on 183 type 2 diabetics. 112 patients were male and 71 were female. The average age was 43 years. 4 patients were diet controlled, 140 patients were on oral hypoglycaemic agents (metformin and/or glibenclamide), and 39 patients were on a combination of insulin and oral hypoglycaemics. In the preceding 12 months, 5 patients had undergone eye screening (3%), 24 patients had undergone foot screening (13%), and 31 patients had lipid profile testing (17%). All patients had a documented blood pressure reading (100%). Our results show that screening is poorly performed in the basic indicators suggested by the IDF and the Lesotho Medical Council. On the basis of these results, a screening programme was developed using the mnemonic SaFE; secondary prevention, foot and eye care. This is simple, memorable and transferable between healthcare professionals. In the future, the expectation would be to expand upon this current programme to include renal screening, and to further develop screening pertaining to secondary prevention.

Keywords: Africa, complications, rural, screening

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Authors: Walter Sebron, Hans Tschürtz, Peter Krebs

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The choice of applicable analysis methods in safety or systems engineering depends on the depth of knowledge about a system, and on the respective lifecycle phase. However, the analysis method chain still shows gaps as it should support system analysis during the lifecycle of a system from a rough concept in pre-project phase until end-of-life. This paper’s goal is to discuss an analysis method, the VISSE Shell Model Analysis (VISMA) method, which aims at closing the gap in the early system lifecycle phases, like the conceptual or pre-project phase, or the project start phase. It was originally developed to aid in the definition of the system boundary of electronic system parts, like e.g. a control unit for a pump motor. Furthermore, it can be also applied to non-electronic system parts. The VISMA method is a graphical sketch-like method that stratifies a system and its parts in inner and outer shells, like the layers of an onion. It analyses a system in a two-step approach, from the innermost to the outermost components followed by the reverse direction. To ensure a complete view of a system and its environment, the VISMA should be performed by (multifunctional) development teams. To introduce the method, a set of rules and guidelines has been defined in order to enable a proper shell build-up. In the first step, the innermost system, named system under consideration (SUC), is selected, which is the focus of the subsequent analysis. Then, its directly adjacent components, responsible for providing input to and receiving output from the SUC, are identified. These components are the content of the first shell around the SUC. Next, the input and output components to the components in the first shell are identified and form the second shell around the first one. Continuing this way, shell by shell is added with its respective parts until the border of the complete system (external border) is reached. Last, two external shells are added to complete the system view, the environment and the use case shell. This system view is also stored for future use. In the second step, the shells are examined in the reverse direction (outside to inside) in order to remove superfluous components or subsystems. Input chains to the SUC, as well as output chains from the SUC are described graphically via arrows, to highlight functional chains through the system. As a result, this method offers a clear and graphical description and overview of a system, its main parts and environment; however, the focus still remains on a specific SUC. It helps to identify the interfaces and interfacing components of the SUC, as well as important external interfaces of the overall system. It supports the identification of the first internal and external hazard causes and causal chains. Additionally, the method promotes a holistic picture and cross-functional understanding of a system, its contributing parts, internal relationships and possible dangers within a multidisciplinary development team.

Keywords: analysis methods, functional safety, hazard identification, system and safety engineering, system boundary definition, system safety

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Authors: Kamal Agrawal, Ved Prakash Nayak, Akshay Patil

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Raipur is known as a city of water bodies. The city had around 200 man-made and natural lakes of varying sizes. These structures were constructed to collect rainwater and control flooding in the city. Due to the transition from community participation to state government, as well as rapid urbanisation, Raipur now has only about 80 lakes left. Rapid and unplanned growth has resulted in pollution, encroachment, and eutrophication of the city's lakes. The state government keeps these lakes in good condition by cleaning them and proposing lakefront developments. However, maintaining individual lakes is insufficient because urban lakes are not distinct entities. It is a system comprised of the lake, shore, catchment, and other components. While Urban lake system (ULS) is a combination of multiple such lake systems interacting in a complex urban setting. Thus, the project aims to propose a co-evolution model for urban lake systems (ULS) and rapid urbanization in Raipur. The goals are to comprehend the ULS and to identify elements and dimensions of urbanization that influence the ULS. Evaluate the impact of rapid urbanization on the ULS & vice versa in the study area. Determine how to maximize the positive impact while minimizing the negative impact identified in the study area. Propose short-, medium-, and long-term planning interventions to support the ULS's co-evolution with rapid urbanization. A complexity approach is used to investigate the ULS. It is a technique for understanding large, complex systems. A complex system is one with many interconnected and interdependent elements and dimensions. Thus, elements of ULS and rapid urbanization are identified through a literature study to evaluate statements of their impacts (Beneficial/ Adverse) on one another. Rapid urbanization has been identified as having elements such as demography, urban legislation, informal settlement, urban infrastructure, and tourism. Similarly, the catchment area of the lake, the lake's water quality, the water spread area, and lakefront developments are all being impacted by rapid urbanisation. These nine elements serve as parameters for the subsequent analysis. Elements are limited to physical parameters only. The city has designated a study area based on the definition provided by the National Plan for the Conservation of Aquatic Ecosystems. Three lakes are discovered within a one-kilometer radius, establishing a tiny urban lake system. Because the condition of a lake is directly related to the condition of its catchment area, the catchment area of these three lakes is delineated as the study area. Data is collected to identify impact statements, and the interdependence diagram generated between the parameters yields results in terms of interlinking between each parameter and their impact on the system as a whole. The planning interventions proposed for the ULS and rapid urbanisation co-evolution model include spatial proposals as well as policy recommendations for the short, medium, and long term. This study's next step will be to determine how to implement the proposed interventions based on the availability of resources, funds, and governance patterns.

Keywords: urban lake system, co-evolution, rapid urbanization, complex system

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Authors: C. Fúnez Guerra, B. Nieto Calderón, M. Jaén Caparrós, L. Reyes-Bozo, A. Godoy-Faúndez, E. Vyhmeister

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The global energy system is experiencing a change of scenery. Unstable energy markets, an increasing focus on climate change and its sustainable development is forcing businesses to pursue new solutions in order to ensure future economic growth. This has led to the interest in using hydrogen as an energy carrier in transportation and industrial applications. As an energy carrier, hydrogen is accessible and holds a high gravimetric energy density. Abundant in hydrocarbons, hydrogen can play an important role in the shift towards low-emission fossil value chains. By combining hydrogen production by natural gas reforming with carbon capture and storage, the overall CO2 emissions are significantly reduced. In addition, the flexibility of hydrogen as an energy storage makes it applicable as a stabilizer in the renewable energy mix. The recent development in hydrogen fuel cells is also raising the expectations for a hydrogen powered transportation sector. Hydrogen value chains exist to a large extent in the industry today. The global hydrogen consumption was approximately 50 million tonnes (7.2 EJ) in 2013, where refineries, ammonia, methanol production and metal processing were main consumers. Natural gas reforming produced 48% of this hydrogen, but without carbon capture and storage (CCS). The total emissions from the production reached 500 million tonnes of CO2, hence alternative production methods with lower emissions will be necessary in future value chains. Hydrogen from electrolysis is used for a wide range of industrial chemical reactions for many years. Possibly, the earliest use was for the production of ammonia-based fertilisers by Norsk Hydro, with a test reactor set up in Notodden, Norway, in 1927. This application also claims one of the world’s largest electrolyser installations, at Sable Chemicals in Zimbabwe. Its array of 28 electrolysers consumes 80 MW per hour, producing around 21,000 Nm3/h of hydrogen. These electrolysers can compete if cheap sources of electricity are available and natural gas for steam reforming is relatively expensive. Because electrolysis of water produces oxygen as a by-product, a system of Autothermal Reforming (ATR) utilizing this oxygen has been analyzed. Replacing the air separation unit with electrolysers produces the required amount of oxygen to the ATR as well as additional hydrogen. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the technical and economic potential of large-scale production of hydrogen for oil refining industry. Sensitivity analysis of parameters such as investment costs, plant operating hours, electricity price and sale price of hydrogen and oxygen are performed.

Keywords: autothermal reforming, electrolyser, hydrogen, natural gas, steam methane reforming

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Authors: Md Shafiqul Bari, Md Shafiqul Islam Sikdar

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This paper summarizes the current knowledge on Agroforestry practices in the Barind tract of Bangladesh. The part of greater Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Rangpur and Bogra district of Bangladesh is geographically identified as the Barind tract. The hard red soil of these areas is very significant in comparison to that of the other parts of the country. A typical dry climate with comparatively high temperature prevails in the Barind area. Scanty rainfall and excessive extraction of groundwater have created an alarming situation among the Barind people and others about irrigation to the rice field. In addition, the situation may cause an adverse impact on the people whose livelihood largely depends on agriculture. The groundwater table has been declined by at least 10 to 15 meters in some areas of the Barind tract during the last 20 years. Due to absent of forestland in the Barind tract, the soil organic carbon content can decrease more rapidly because of the higher rate of decomposition. The Barind soils are largely carbon depleted but can be brought back to carbon-carrying capacity by bringing under suitable Agroforestry systems. Agroforestry has tremendous potential for carbon sequestration not only in above C biomass but also root C biomass in deeper soil depths. Agroforestry systems habitually conserve soil organic carbon and maintain a great natural nutrient pool. Cultivation of trees with arable crops under Agroforestry systems help in improving soil organic carbon content and sequestration carbon, particularly in the highly degraded Barind lands. Agroforestry systems are a way of securing the growth of cash crops that may constitute an alternative source of income in moments of crisis. Besides being a source of fuel wood, a greater presence of trees in cropping system contributes to decreasing temperatures and to increasing rainfall, thus contrasting the negative environmental impact of climate changes. In order to fulfill the objectives of this study, two experiments were conducted. The first experiment was survey on the impact of existing agroforestry system on the livelihood security in the Barind tract of Bangladesh and the second one was the role of agroforestry system on the improvement of soil properties in a multilayered coconut orchard. Agroforestry systems have been generated a lot of employment opportunities in the Barind area. More crops mean involvement of more people in various activities like involvements in dairying, sericulture, apiculture and additional associated agro-based interventions. Successful adoption of Agroforestry practices in the Barind area has shown that the Agroforestry practitioners of this area were very sound positioned economically, and had added social status too. However, from the findings of the present study, it may be concluded that the majority rural farmers of the Barind tract of Bangladesh had a very good knowledge and medium extension contact related to agroforestry production system. It was also observed that 85 per cent farmers followed agroforestry production system and received benefits to a higher extent. Again, from the research study on orchard based mutistoried agroforestry cropping system, it was evident that there was an important effect of agroforestry cropping systems on the improvement of soil chemical properties. As a result, the agroforestry systems may be helpful to attain the development objectives and preserve the biosphere core.

Keywords: agroforestry systems, Barind tract, carbon sequestration, climate changes

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Authors: Bangkit Adhi Nugraha, Bambang Suripto

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On September 2016 Bank Indonesia (BI) release regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016 that permit bank clients for using the FX option call spread USD/IDR. Basically, this product is a combination between clients buy FX call option (pay premium) and sell FX call option (receive premium) to protect against currency depreciation while also capping the potential upside with cheap premium cost. BI classifies this product as a structured product. The structured product is combination at least two financial instruments, either derivative or non-derivative instruments. The call spread is the first structured product against IDR permitted by BI since 2009 as response the demand increase from Indonesia firms on FX hedging through derivative for protecting market risk their foreign currency asset or liability. The composition of hedging products on Indonesian FX market increase from 35% on 2015 to 40% on 2016, the majority on swap product (FX forward, FX swap, cross currency swap). Swap is formulated by interest rate difference of the two currency pairs. The cost of swap product is 7% for USD/IDR with one year USD/IDR volatility 13%. That cost level makes swap products seem expensive for hedging buyers. Because call spread cost (around 1.5-3%) cheaper than swap, the most Indonesian firms are using NDF FX call spread USD/IDR on offshore with outstanding amount around 10 billion USD. The cheaper cost of call spread is the main advantage for hedging buyers. The problem arises because BI regulation requires the call spread buyer doing the dynamic hedging. That means, if call spread buyer choose strike price 1 and strike price 2 and volatility USD/IDR exchange rate surpass strike price 2, then the call spread buyer must buy another call spread with strike price 1’ (strike price 1’ = strike price 2) and strike price 2’ (strike price 2’ > strike price 1‘). It could make the premium cost of call spread doubled or even more and dismiss the purpose of hedging buyer to find the cheapest hedging cost. It is very crucial for the buyer to choose best optimum strike price before entering into the transaction. To help hedging buyer find the optimum strike price and avoid expensive multiple premium cost, we observe ten years 2005-2015 historical data of USD/IDR volatility to be compared with the price movement of the call spread USD/IDR using Garman–Kohlhagen Model (as a common formula on FX option pricing). We use statistical tools to analysis data correlation, understand nature of call spread price movement over ten years, and determine factors affecting price movement. We select some range of strike price and tenor and calculate the probability of dynamic hedging to occur and how much it’s cost. We found USD/IDR currency pairs is too uncertain and make dynamic hedging riskier and more expensive. We validated this result using one year data and shown small RMS. The study result could be used to understand nature of FX call spread and determine optimum strike price for hedging plan.

Keywords: FX call spread USD/IDR, USD/IDR volatility statistical analysis, Garman–Kohlhagen Model on FX Option USD/IDR, Bank Indonesia Regulation no.18/18/PBI/2016

Procedia PDF Downloads 364