Search results for: hierarchical text classification models
Commenced in January 2007
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Paper Count: 10083

Search results for: hierarchical text classification models

5253 Designing Agile Product Development Processes by Transferring Mechanisms of Action Used in Agile Software Development

Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Jan Kantelberg

Abstract:

Due to the fugacity of markets and the reduction of product lifecycles, manufacturing companies from high-wage countries are nowadays faced with the challenge to place more innovative products within even shorter development time on the market. At the same time, volatile customer requirements have to be satisfied in order to successfully differentiate from market competitors. One potential approach to address the explained challenges is provided by agile values and principles. These agile values and principles already proofed their success within software development projects in the form of management frameworks like Scrum or concrete procedure models such as Extreme Programming or Crystal Clear. Those models lead to significant improvements regarding quality, costs and development time and are therefore used within most software development projects. Motivated by the success within the software industry, manufacturing companies have tried to transfer agile mechanisms of action to the development of hardware products ever since. Though first empirical studies show similar effects in the agile development of hardware products, no comprehensive procedure model for the design of development iterations has been developed for hardware development yet due to different constraints of the domains. For this reason, this paper focusses on the design of agile product development processes by transferring mechanisms of action used in agile software development towards product development. This is conducted by decomposing the individual systems 'product development' and 'agile software development' into relevant elements and symbiotically composing the elements of both systems in respect of the design of agile product development processes afterwards. In a first step, existing product development processes are described following existing approaches of the system theory. By analyzing existing case studies from industrial companies as well as academic approaches, characteristic objectives, activities and artefacts are identified within a target-, action- and object-system. In partial model two, mechanisms of action are derived from existing procedure models of agile software development. These mechanisms of action are classified in a superior strategy level, in a system level comprising characteristic, domain-independent activities and their cause-effect relationships as well as in an activity-based element level. Within partial model three, the influence of the identified agile mechanism of action towards the characteristic system elements of product development processes is analyzed. For this reason, target-, action- and object-system of the product development are compared with the strategy-, system- and element-level of agile mechanism of action by using the graph theory. Furthermore, the necessity of existence of activities within iteration can be determined by defining activity-specific degrees of freedom. Based on this analysis, agile product development processes are designed in form of different types of iterations within a last step. By defining iteration-differentiating characteristics and their interdependencies, a logic for the configuration of activities, their form of execution as well as relevant artefacts for the specific iteration is developed. Furthermore, characteristic types of iteration for the agile product development are identified.

Keywords: activity-based process model, agile mechanisms of action, agile product development, degrees of freedom

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5252 A New DIDS Design Based on a Combination Feature Selection Approach

Authors: Adel Sabry Eesa, Adnan Mohsin Abdulazeez Brifcani, Zeynep Orman

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Feature selection has been used in many fields such as classification, data mining and object recognition and proven to be effective for removing irrelevant and redundant features from the original data set. In this paper, a new design of distributed intrusion detection system using a combination feature selection model based on bees and decision tree. Bees algorithm is used as the search strategy to find the optimal subset of features, whereas decision tree is used as a judgment for the selected features. Both the produced features and the generated rules are used by Decision Making Mobile Agent to decide whether there is an attack or not in the networks. Decision Making Mobile Agent will migrate through the networks, moving from node to another, if it found that there is an attack on one of the nodes, it then alerts the user through User Interface Agent or takes some action through Action Mobile Agent. The KDD Cup 99 data set is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed system. The results show that even if only four features are used, the proposed system gives a better performance when it is compared with the obtained results using all 41 features.

Keywords: distributed intrusion detection system, mobile agent, feature selection, bees algorithm, decision tree

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5251 Study of Biomechanical Model for Smart Sensor Based Prosthetic Socket Design System

Authors: Wei Xu, Abdo S. Haidar, Jianxin Gao

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Prosthetic socket is a component that connects the residual limb of an amputee with an artificial prosthesis. It is widely recognized as the most critical component that determines the comfort of a patient when wearing the prosthesis in his/her daily activities. Through the socket, the body weight and its associated dynamic load are distributed and transmitted to the prosthesis during walking, running or climbing. In order to achieve a good-fit socket for an individual amputee, it is essential to obtain the biomechanical properties of the residual limb. In current clinical practices, this is achieved by a touch-and-feel approach which is highly subjective. Although there have been significant advancements in prosthetic technologies such as microprocessor controlled knee and ankle joints in the last decade, the progress in designing a comfortable socket has been rather limited. This means that the current process of socket design is still very time-consuming, and highly dependent on the expertise of the prosthetist. Supported by the state-of-the-art sensor technologies and numerical simulations, a new socket design system is being developed to help prosthetists achieve rapid design of comfortable sockets for above knee amputees. This paper reports the research work related to establishing biomechanical models for socket design. Through numerical simulation using finite element method, comprehensive relationships between pressure on residual limb and socket geometry were established. This allowed local topological adjustment for the socket so as to optimize the pressure distributions across the residual limb. When the full body weight of a patient is exerted on the residual limb, high pressures and shear forces between the residual limb and the socket occur. During numerical simulations, various hyperplastic models, namely Ogden, Yeoh and Mooney-Rivlin, were used, and their effectiveness in representing the biomechanical properties of soft tissues of the residual limb was evaluated. This also involved reverse engineering, which resulted in an optimal representative model under compression test. To validate the simulation results, a range of silicone models were fabricated. They were tested by an indentation device which yielded the force-displacement relationships. Comparisons of results obtained from FEA simulations and experimental tests showed that the Ogden model did not fit well the soft tissue material indentation data, while the Yeoh model gave the best representation of the soft tissue mechanical behavior under indentation. Compared with hyperplastic model, the result showed that elastic model also had significant errors. In addition, normal and shear stress distributions on the surface of the soft tissue model were obtained. The effect of friction in compression testing and the influence of soft tissue stiffness and testing boundary conditions were also analyzed. All these have contributed to the overall goal of designing a good-fit socket for individual above knee amputees.

Keywords: above knee amputee, finite element simulation, hyperplastic model, prosthetic socket

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5250 Vertical Urbanization Over Public Structures: The Example of Mostar Junction in Belgrade, Serbia

Authors: Sladjana Popovic

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The concept of vertical space urbanization, defined in English as "air rights development," can be considered a mechanism for the development of public spaces in urban areas of high density. A chronological overview of the transformation of space within the vertical projection of the existing traffic infrastructure that penetrates through the central areas of a city is given in this paper through the analysis of two illustrative case studies: more advanced and recent - "Plot 13" in Boston, and less well-known European example of structures erected above highways throughout Italy - the "Pavesi auto grill" chain. The backbone of this analysis is the examination of the possibility of yielding air rights within the vertical projection of public structures in the two examples by considering the factors that would enable its potential application in capitals in Southeastern Europe. The cession of air rights in the Southeastern Europe region, as a phenomenon, has not been a recognized practice in urban planning. In a formal sense, legal and physical feasibility can be seen to some extent in local models of structures built above protected historical heritage (i.e., archaeological sites); however, the mechanisms of the legal process of assigning the right to use and develop air rights above public structures is not a recognized concept. The goal of the analysis is to shed light on the influence of institutional participants in the implementation of innovative solutions for vertical urbanization, as well as strategic planning mechanisms in public-private partnership models that would enable the implementation of the concept in the region. The main question is whether the manipulation of the vertical projection of space could provide for innovative urban solutions that overcome the deficit and excessive use of the available construction land, particularly above the dominant public spaces and traffic infrastructure that penetrate central parts of a city. Conclusions reflect upon vertical urbanization that can bridge the spatial separation of the city, reduce noise pollution and contribute to more efficient urban planning along main transportation corridors.

Keywords: air rights development, innovative urbanism, public-private partnership, transport infrastructure, vertical urbanization

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5249 Accounting for Cryptocurrency: Urgent Need for an Accounting Standard

Authors: Fatima Ali Abbass, Hassan Ibrahim Rkein

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The number of entities worldwide that currently accept digital currency as payment is increasing; however, digital currency still is not widely accepted as a medium of exchange, nor they represent legal tender. At the same time, this makes accounting for cryptocurrency, as cash (Currency) is not possible under IAS 7 and IAS 32, Cryptocurrency also cannot be accounted for as Financial Assets at fair value through profit or loss under IFRS 9. Therefore, this paper studies the possible means to account for Cryptocurrency, since, as of today, there is not yet an accounting standard that deals with cryptocurrency. The request to have a specific accounting standard is increasing from top accounting firms and from professional accounting bodies. This study uses a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analysis in its quest to explore the best possible way to account for cryptocurrency. Interviews and surveys were conducted targeting accounting professionals. This study highlighted the deficiencies in the current way of accounting for Cryptocurrency as intangible Assets with an indefinite life. The deficiency becomes well highlighted, as the asset will then be subject to impairment, where under GAAP, only depreciation in the value of the intangible asset is recognized. On the other hand, appreciation in the value of the asset is ignored, and this prohibits the reporting entity from showing the true value of the cryptocurrency asset. This research highlights the gap that arises due to using accounting standards that are not specific for Cryptocurrency and this study confirmed that there is an urgent need to call upon the accounting standards setters (IASB and FASB) to issue accounting standards specifically for Cryptocurrency.

Keywords: cryptocurrency, accounting, IFRS, GAAP, classification, measurement

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
5248 Psoriasis Diagnostic Test Development: Exploratory Study

Authors: Salam N. Abdo, Orien L. Tulp, George P. Einstein

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The purpose of this exploratory study was to gather the insights into psoriasis etiology, treatment, and patient experience, for developing psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test. Data collection methods consisted of a comprehensive meta-analysis of relevant studies and psoriasis patient survey. Established meta-analysis guidelines were used for the selection and qualitative comparative analysis of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis research studies. Only studies that clearly discussed psoriasis etiology, treatment, and patient experience were reviewed and analyzed, to establish a qualitative data base for the study. Using the insights gained from meta-analysis, an existing psoriasis patient survey was modified and administered to collect additional data as well as triangulate the results. The hypothesis is that specific types of psoriatic disease have specific etiology and pathophysiologic pattern. The following etiology categories were identified: bacterial, environmental/microbial, genetic, immune, infectious, trauma/stress, and viral. Additional results, obtained from meta-analysis and confirmed by patient survey, were the common age of onset (early to mid-20s) and type of psoriasis (plaque; mild; symmetrical; scalp, chest, and extremities, specifically elbows and knees). Almost 70% of patients reported no prescription drug use due to severe side effects and prohibitive cost. These results will guide the development of psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test. The significant number of medical publications classified psoriatic arthritis disease as inflammatory of an unknown etiology. Thus numerous meta-analyses struggle to report any meaningful conclusions since no definitive results have been reported to date. Therefore, return to the basics is an essential step to any future meaningful results. To date, medical literature supports the fact that psoriatic disease in its current classification could be misidentifying subcategories, which in turn hinders the success of studies conducted to date. Moreover, there has been an enormous commercial support to pursue various immune-modulation therapies, thus following a narrow hypothesis/mechanism of action that is yet to yield resolution of disease state. Recurrence and complications may be considered unacceptable in a significant number of these studies. The aim of the ongoing study is to focus on a narrow subgroup of patient population, as identified by this exploratory study via meta-analysis and patient survey, and conduct an exhaustive work up, aiming at mechanism of action and causality before proposing a cure or therapeutic modality. Remission in psoriasis has been achieved and documented in medical literature, such as immune-modulation, phototherapy, various over-the-counter agents, including salts and tar. However, there is no psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis diagnostic test to date, to guide the diagnosis and treatment of this debilitating and, thus far, incurable disease. Because psoriasis affects approximately 2% of population, the results of this study may affect the treatment and improve the quality of life of a significant number of psoriasis patients, potentially millions of patients in the United States alone and many more millions worldwide.

Keywords: biologics, early diagnosis, etiology, immune disease, immune modulation therapy, inflammation skin disorder, phototherapy, plaque psoriasis, psoriasis, psoriasis classification, psoriasis disease marker, psoriasis diagnostic test, psoriasis marker, psoriasis mechanism of action, psoriasis treatment, psoriatic arthritis, psoriatic disease, psoriatic disease marker, psoriatic patient experience, psoriatic patient quality of life, remission, salt therapy, targeted immune therapy

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5247 Liposome Sterile Filtration Fouling: The Impact of Transmembrane Pressure on Performance

Authors: Hercules Argyropoulos, Thomas F. Johnson, Nigel B Jackson, Kalliopi Zourna, Daniel G. Bracewell

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Lipid encapsulation has become essential in drug delivery, notably for mRNA vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, their sterile filtration poses challenges due to the risk of deformation, filter fouling and product loss from adsorption onto the membrane. Choosing the right filtration membrane is crucial to maintain sterility and integrity while minimizing product loss. The objective of this study is to develop a rigorous analytical framework utilizing confocal microscopy and filtration blocking models to elucidate the fouling mechanisms of liposomes as a model system for this class of delivery vehicle during sterile filtration, particularly in response to variations in transmembrane pressure (TMP) during the filtration process. Experiments were conducted using fluorescent Lipoid S100 PC liposomes formulated by micro fluidization and characterized by Multi-Angle Dynamic Light Scattering. Dual-layer PES/PES and PES/PVDF membranes with 0.2 μm pores were used for filtration under constant pressure, cycling from 30 psi to 5 psi and back to 30 psi, with 5, 6, and 5-minute intervals. Cross-sectional membrane samples were prepared by microtome slicing and analyzed with confocal microscopy. Liposome characterization revealed a particle size range of 100-140 nm and an average concentration of 2.93x10¹¹ particles/mL. Goodness-of-fit analysis of flux decline data at varying TMPs identified the intermediate blocking model as most accurate at 30 psi and the cake filtration model at 5 psi. Membrane resistance analysis showed atypical behavior compared to therapeutic proteins, with resistance remaining below 1.38×10¹¹ m⁻¹ at 30 psi, increasing over fourfold at 5 psi, and then decreasing to 1-1.3-fold when pressure was returned to 30 psi. This suggests that increased flow/shear deforms liposomes enabling them to more effectively navigate membrane pores. Confocal microscopy indicated that liposome fouling mainly occurred in the upper parts of the dual-layer membrane.

Keywords: sterile filtration, membrane resistance, microfluidization, confocal microscopy, liposomes, filtration blocking models

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5246 Pregnant Women’s Views on a Trial of Posture for Fetal Malposition

Authors: Jennifer A. Barrowclough, Caroline A. Crowther, Bridget Kool

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Fetal malposition in labour is associated with adverse maternal and infant health outcomes. Evidence for effective interventions for fetal malposition is inconclusive. The feasibility and design of a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of maternal posture to improve maternal and infant outcomes of malposition should be considered, based on the hypothesis that gravity corrects malposition. The aim was to assess pregnant women’s views on the acceptability of a future trial of maternal posture for fetal malposition in labour, and the enablers and barriers of participation. Method: An online anonymous survey of pregnant women was conducted in Auckland during 2020. Descriptive summaries of quantitative data used chi-square to assess differences in proportions. The influence of maternal characteristics on women’s responses was assessed using cross-tabulation. Free text responses were analysed thematically. Results: Respondents (n=206) were mostly aged26-35 years (75%), of 29-38 weeks gestation (71%), of European (40%) or Asian (36%) ethnicity, were evenly nulliparous or multiparous. Most women (76%) had heard of fetal malposition in labour however only 28% were aware of the use of maternal posture to correct this. Most women (86%) were interested in labour research. Although 37% indicated they would participate in a future RCT of posture for fetal malposition, nearly half (47%) were unsure and a further quarter (15%) indicated they would not participate. Comfort was the predominant concern (22%). Almost half of the respondents (49%) indicated they would consult their partner before deciding on participation in an RCT. Conclusions: Participation in a trial of maternal posture in labour can be enabled through measures to enhance maternal comfort, increased awareness of malposition and the role of posture, and the involvement of partners during trial counselling and recruitment.

Keywords: pregnant women, labour, presentation, posture, randomized controlled trial, survey

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5245 A Discourse Analysis of Menopause for Thai Women

Authors: Prapaipan Phingchim

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The number of women approaching menopausal age in Thailand is increasing, making menopause an important health topic. In order to understand Thai women's different ways of interpreting menopausal experiences and the way they construct meaning relating to menopause, it is necessary to include the context in which meaning is constructed as well as the background of cultural attitudes to menopause existing in the Thai society. The aim of this study was to describe different discourses on menopause in Thailand that present themselves to menopausal women through the use of language and to analyze linguistic strategies used to represent such identity. This study adopts discourse theory and a close pragmatic analysis to examine the discursive construction of menopause for Thai women. Two hundreds and fifteen pieces of text under the heading or subject of `menopause' or `becoming a middle-aged woman', published from 2010 to 2019, were included. All material was addressed to Thai women, and consisted of booklets and informational material, articles from newspapers and magazines and popular science books. Five different discourses on menopause were identified: the biomedical discourse; the health-promotion discourse; the consumer discourse; the alternative discourse; and the feminist/ critical discourse. The biomedical discourse on menopause was found to be dominant, but was expanded or challenged by other discourses by offering different scopes of action and/or resting on different fundamental values. The discourses constructed and positioned individual women differently; thus, the women's position varied noticeably from one discourse to another. There are seven major linguistic strategies used to construct those identities. That is, lexical selection, presupposition manipulation, presupposition denial, the use of implication, the use of passive construction, using the cause and effect sentence structure, and rhetoric questions.

Keywords: discourse analysis, discursive construction, menopause, Thai women

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5244 Prediction of Survival Rate after Gastrointestinal Surgery Based on The New Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM Score) With Neural Network Classification Method

Authors: Ayu Nabila Kusuma Pradana, Aprinaldi Jasa Mantau, Tomohiko Akahoshi

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The incidence of Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) following gastrointestinal surgery has a poor prognosis. Therefore, it is important to determine the factors that can predict the prognosis of DIC. This study will investigate the factors that may influence the outcome of DIC in patients after gastrointestinal surgery. Eighty-one patients were admitted to the intensive care unit after gastrointestinal surgery in Kyushu University Hospital from 2003 to 2021. Acute DIC scores were estimated using the new Japanese Association for Acute Medicine (JAAM) score from before and after surgery from day 1, day 3, and day 7. Acute DIC scores will be compared with The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, platelet count, lactate level, and a variety of biochemical parameters. This study applied machine learning algorithms to predict the prognosis of DIC after gastrointestinal surgery. The results of this study are expected to be used as an indicator for evaluating patient prognosis so that it can increase life expectancy and reduce mortality from cases of DIC patients after gastrointestinal surgery.

Keywords: the survival rate, gastrointestinal surgery, JAAM score, neural network, machine learning, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC)

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5243 A New Paradigm to Make Cloud Computing Greener

Authors: Apurva Saxena, Sunita Gond

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Demand of computation, data storage in large amount are rapidly increases day by day. Cloud computing technology fulfill the demand of today’s computation but this will lead to high power consumption in cloud data centers. Initiative for Green IT try to reduce power consumption and its adverse environmental impacts. Paper also focus on various green computing techniques, proposed models and efficient way to make cloud greener.

Keywords: virtualization, cloud computing, green computing, data center

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5242 Debating the Role of Patriarchy in the Incidence of Gender-Based Violence in Jordan: Systematic Review of the Literature

Authors: Nour Daoud

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Patriarchy continues to thrive in Jordan where male-controlled values are still entrenched in a society that is suffering from upsetting percentages of Gender-based Violence (GBV). This paper is a systematic review of the literature with an attempt to evaluate and interpret all available research evidence relevant to determining the extent to which patriarchy contributes to the occurrence, re-occurrence, and continuation of GBV in Jordan. Twenty-one (21) full-text articles were selected for the in-depth review due to meeting the established criteria for inclusion. 81 percent of articles included primary data while 19 percent included secondary data. Analysis of data was based on a specific extraction form that was developed using the ‘Excel’ to respond to the main goal of the paper. Interpretation of data was in light of the theorization of different feminism schools on the relationship between patriarchy and gender-based violence. Findings show that 33 percent of the selected articles affirm that the patriarchal standpoint best explains the role of patriarchy in the incidence of gender-based violence in Jordan under its three main themes (Honor-based Violence, Intimate Partner Violence and Street Harassment). Apart from the limited number of articles that were found debating this argument and the low percentage of articles that acknowledged the role of patriarchy in the incidence of gender-based violence in Jordan, this paper breaks the ice to implement future empirical studies on this subject. Also, it is an invitation for all Jordanian women to unite their efforts in order to eradicate all forms of victimization against them.

Keywords: honor-based violence, intimate partner violence, middle-east, street harassment

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5241 A Study of Transferable Strategies in Multilanguage Learning

Authors: Zixi You

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With the demand of multilingual speakers increasing in the job market, multi-language learning programs have become more and more popular among undergraduate students. A study on multi-language learning strategies is therefore highly demanded on both practical and theoretical levels. Based on previous classification of learning strategies in SLA, and an investigation of BA Modern Language program students (with post-A level L2 and ab initio L3 learning experience from year one), this study explores and compares different types of learning strategies used by multi-language speakers and learners, transferable learning strategies between L2 and L3, and factors affecting the transfer. The results indicate that all the 23 types of learning strategies of L2 are employed when learning L3 from ab initio level, yet with different tendencies. Learning strategy transfer from L2 to L3 (i.e., the learners attribute the applying of these L3 learning strategies to be a direct result of their L2 learning experience) are observed in all 23 types of learning strategies. Comparatively, six types of “cognitive strategies” have higher transfer tendency than others. With regard to the failure of the transfer of some particular L2 strategies and the development of independent L3 strategies of individual learners, factors such as language proficiency, language typology and learning environment have played important roles among others. The presentation of this study will provide audiences with detailed data, insightful analysis and discussion on both theoretical and practical aspects of multi-language learning that will benefit both students and educators.

Keywords: learning strategy, multi-language acquisition, second language acquisition, strategy transfer

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5240 Border Between the Violation of Dental Ethics and the Occurrence of Dental Malpractice

Authors: Saimir Heta, Rialda Xhizdari, Kers Kapaj, Ilma Robo

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Background: The interests of both individuals involved, both the dentist with his professionalism, and the patient who claims and expects the proper professional dental service, are determined in cases of dental malpractice. The latter is a phenomenon that is also wearing the "cloak" of bilateral manipulations, which in themselves require strong legal control to regulate the relations between the involved parties. The two individuals are involved both individually and even professionally and emotionally, with support in the "ultimate" interests of the two people, which in the case of conflicts or grievances, which as a result are transported to the family or society of the affected individual. Main text: The reason for malpractice is the most difficult part to find and then to interpret. It can be professional in the view of "so much I know how to do, so much done", or in the view of the impossibility of individual health conditions to achieve high professional expectations. But, the reason can also be individual with the intention of doing bad without reason or with the source of an unhealthy mind and the source of malicious thinking. The professional himself is a human being and as such may be under the effect of individual treatments or vices, therefore causing misuse, a case that must be distinguished from intentional misuse and which must be judged for the results or damages caused by the professional based on criminal law. Conclusions: Malpractice in some cases may be unavoidable, beyond the good intention of the dental intervention, which should be well understood by both parties involved in this relationship. Malpractice is not necessarily related only to difficult clinical cases, but sometimes also appears as a random deviation of a dental treatment with a welldefined professional protocol. The legal support in the interpretation of malpractice cases should be much more specific according to previous cases, this practice specifically, perhaps also according to different religious states.

Keywords: dental ethics, malpractice, professional dental service, legal support

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5239 Revising Our Ideas on Revisions: Non-Contact Bridging Plate Fixation of Vancouver B1 and B2 Periprosthetic Femoral Fractures

Authors: S. Ayeko, J. Milton, C. Hughes, K. Anderson, R. G. Middleton

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Background: Periprosthetic femoral fractures (PFF) in association with hip hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty is a common and serious complication. In the Vancouver Classification system algorithm, B1 fractures should be treated with Open Reduction and Internal Fixation (ORIF) and preferentially revised in combination with ORIF if B2 or B3. This study aims to assess patient outcomes after plate osteosynthesis alone for Vancouver B1 and B2 fractures. The main outcome is the 1-year re-revision rate, and secondary outcomes are 30-day and 1-year mortality. Method: This is a retrospective single-centre case-series review from January 2016 to June 2021. Vancouver B1 and B2, non-malignancy fractures in adults over 18 years of age treated with polyaxial Non-Contact Bridging plate osteosynthesis, have been included. Outcomes were gathered from electronic notes and radiographs. Results: There were 50 B1 and 64 B2 fractures. 26 B2 fractures were managed with ORIF and revision, 39 ORIF alone. Of the revision group, one died within 30 days (3.8%), one at one year (3.8%), and two were revised within one year (7.7). Of the B2 ORIF group, three died within 30-day mortality (7.96%), eight at one year (21.1%), and 0 were revised in 1 year. Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that satisfactory outcomes can be achieved with ORIF, excluding revision in the management of B2 fractures.

Keywords: arthroplasty, bridging plate, periprosthetic fracture, revision surgery

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5238 Comparison of Different Reanalysis Products for Predicting Extreme Precipitation in the Southern Coast of the Caspian Sea

Authors: Parvin Ghafarian, Mohammadreza Mohammadpur Panchah, Mehri Fallahi

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Synoptic patterns from surface up to tropopause are very important for forecasting the weather and atmospheric conditions. There are many tools to prepare and analyze these maps. Reanalysis data and the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, satellite images, meteorological radar, and weather station data are used in world forecasting centers to predict the weather. The forecasting extreme precipitating on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea (CS) is the main issue due to complex topography. Also, there are different types of climate in these areas. In this research, we used two reanalysis data such as ECMWF Reanalysis 5th Generation Description (ERA5) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction /National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for verification of the numerical model. ERA5 is the latest version of ECMWF. The temporal resolution of ERA5 is hourly, and the NCEP/NCAR is every six hours. Some atmospheric parameters such as mean sea level pressure, geopotential height, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, sea surface temperature, etc. were selected and analyzed. Some different type of precipitation (rain and snow) was selected. The results showed that the NCEP/NCAR has more ability to demonstrate the intensity of the atmospheric system. The ERA5 is suitable for extract the value of parameters for specific point. Also, ERA5 is appropriate to analyze the snowfall events over CS (snow cover and snow depth). Sea surface temperature has the main role to generate instability over CS, especially when the cold air pass from the CS. Sea surface temperature of NCEP/NCAR product has low resolution near coast. However, both data were able to detect meteorological synoptic patterns that led to heavy rainfall over CS. However, due to the time lag, they are not suitable for forecast centers. The application of these two data is for research and verification of meteorological models. Finally, ERA5 has a better resolution, respect to NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, but NCEP/NCAR data is available from 1948 and appropriate for long term research.

Keywords: synoptic patterns, heavy precipitation, reanalysis data, snow

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5237 Multi-Criteria Decision Making Network Optimization for Green Supply Chains

Authors: Bandar A. Alkhayyal

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Modern supply chains are typically linear, transforming virgin raw materials into products for end consumers, who then discard them after use to landfills or incinerators. Nowadays, there are major efforts underway to create a circular economy to reduce non-renewable resource use and waste. One important aspect of these efforts is the development of Green Supply Chain (GSC) systems which enables a reverse flow of used products from consumers back to manufacturers, where they can be refurbished or remanufactured, to both economic and environmental benefit. This paper develops novel multi-objective optimization models to inform GSC system design at multiple levels: (1) strategic planning of facility location and transportation logistics; (2) tactical planning of optimal pricing; and (3) policy planning to account for potential valuation of GSC emissions. First, physical linear programming was applied to evaluate GSC facility placement by determining the quantities of end-of-life products for transport from candidate collection centers to remanufacturing facilities while satisfying cost and capacity criteria. Second, disassembly and remanufacturing processes have received little attention in industrial engineering and process cost modeling literature. The increasing scale of remanufacturing operations, worth nearly $50 billion annually in the United States alone, have made GSC pricing an important subject of research. A non-linear physical programming model for optimization of pricing policy for remanufactured products that maximizes total profit and minimizes product recovery costs were examined and solved. Finally, a deterministic equilibrium model was used to determine the effects of internalizing a cost of GSC greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into optimization models. Changes in optimal facility use, transportation logistics, and pricing/profit margins were all investigated against a variable cost of carbon, using case study system created based on actual data from sites in the Boston area. As carbon costs increase, the optimal GSC system undergoes several distinct shifts in topology as it seeks new cost-minimal configurations. A comprehensive study of quantitative evaluation and performance of the model has been done using orthogonal arrays. Results were compared to top-down estimates from economic input-output life cycle assessment (EIO-LCA) models, to contrast remanufacturing GHG emission quantities with those from original equipment manufacturing operations. Introducing a carbon cost of $40/t CO2e increases modeled remanufacturing costs by 2.7% but also increases original equipment costs by 2.3%. The assembled work advances the theoretical modeling of optimal GSC systems and presents a rare case study of remanufactured appliances.

Keywords: circular economy, extended producer responsibility, greenhouse gas emissions, industrial ecology, low carbon logistics, green supply chains

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5236 The Reliability Analysis of Concrete Chimneys Due to Random Vortex Shedding

Authors: Saba Rahman, Arvind K. Jain, S. D. Bharti, T. K. Datta

Abstract:

Chimneys are generally tall and slender structures with circular cross-sections, due to which they are highly prone to wind forces. Wind exerts pressure on the wall of the chimneys, which produces unwanted forces. Vortex-induced oscillation is one of such excitations which can lead to the failure of the chimneys. Therefore, vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys is of great concern to researchers and practitioners since many failures of chimneys due to vortex shedding have occurred in the past. As a consequence, extensive research has taken place on the subject over decades. Many laboratory experiments have been performed to verify the theoretical models proposed to predict vortex-induced forces, including aero-elastic effects. Comparatively, very few proto-type measurement data have been recorded to verify the proposed theoretical models. Because of this reason, the theoretical models developed with the help of experimental laboratory data are utilized for analyzing the chimneys for vortex-induced forces. This calls for reliability analysis of the predictions of the responses of the chimneys produced due to vortex shedding phenomena. Although several works of literature exist on the vortex-induced oscillation of chimneys, including code provisions, the reliability analysis of chimneys against failure caused due to vortex shedding is scanty. In the present study, the reliability analysis of chimneys against vortex shedding failure is presented, assuming the uncertainty in vortex shedding phenomena to be significantly more than other uncertainties, and hence, the latter is ignored. The vortex shedding is modeled as a stationary random process and is represented by a power spectral density function (PSDF). It is assumed that the vortex shedding forces are perfectly correlated and act over the top one-third height of the chimney. The PSDF of the tip displacement of the chimney is obtained by performing a frequency domain spectral analysis using a matrix approach. For this purpose, both chimney and random wind forces are discretized over a number of points along with the height of the chimney. The method of analysis duly accounts for the aero-elastic effects. The double barrier threshold crossing level, as proposed by Vanmarcke, is used for determining the probability of crossing different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney. Assuming the annual distribution of the mean wind velocity to be a Gumbel type-I distribution, the fragility curve denoting the variation of the annual probability of threshold crossing against different threshold levels of the tip displacement of the chimney is determined. The reliability estimate is derived from the fragility curve. A 210m tall concrete chimney with a base diameter of 35m, top diameter as 21m, and thickness as 0.3m has been taken as an illustrative example. The terrain condition is assumed to be that corresponding to the city center. The expression for the PSDF of the vortex shedding force is taken to be used by Vickery and Basu. The results of the study show that the threshold crossing reliability of the tip displacement of the chimney is significantly influenced by the assumed structural damping and the Gumbel distribution parameters. Further, the aero-elastic effect influences the reliability estimate to a great extent for small structural damping.

Keywords: chimney, fragility curve, reliability analysis, vortex-induced vibration

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5235 Convolutional Neural Network and LSTM Applied to Abnormal Behaviour Detection from Highway Footage

Authors: Rafael Marinho de Andrade, Elcio Hideti Shiguemori, Rafael Duarte Coelho dos Santos

Abstract:

Relying on computer vision, many clever things are possible in order to make the world safer and optimized on resource management, especially considering time and attention as manageable resources, once the modern world is very abundant in cameras from inside our pockets to above our heads while crossing the streets. Thus, automated solutions based on computer vision techniques to detect, react, or even prevent relevant events such as robbery, car crashes and traffic jams can be accomplished and implemented for the sake of both logistical and surveillance improvements. In this paper, we present an approach for vehicles’ abnormal behaviors detection from highway footages, in which the vectorial data of the vehicles’ displacement are extracted directly from surveillance cameras footage through object detection and tracking with a deep convolutional neural network and inserted into a long-short term memory neural network for behavior classification. The results show that the classifications of behaviors are consistent and the same principles may be applied to other trackable objects and scenarios as well.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, behavior detection, computer vision, convolutional neural networks, LSTM, highway footage

Procedia PDF Downloads 166
5234 Recovery of Metals from Electronic Waste by Physical and Chemical Recycling Processes

Authors: Muammer Kaya

Abstract:

The main purpose of this article is to provide a comprehensive review of various physical and chemical processes for electronic waste (e-waste) recycling, their advantages and shortfalls towards achieving a cleaner process of waste utilization, with especial attention towards extraction of metallic values. Current status and future perspectives of waste printed circuit boards (PCBs) recycling are described. E-waste characterization, dismantling/ disassembly methods, liberation and classification processes, composition determination techniques are covered. Manual selective dismantling and metal-nonmetal liberation at – 150 µm at two step crushing are found to be the best. After size reduction, mainly physical separation/concentration processes employing gravity, electrostatic, magnetic separators, froth floatation etc., which are commonly used in mineral processing, have been critically reviewed here for separation of metals and non-metals, along with useful utilizations of the non-metallic materials. The recovery of metals from e-waste material after physical separation through pyrometallurgical, hydrometallurgical or biohydrometallurgical routes is also discussed along with purification and refining and some suitable flowsheets are also given. It seems that hydrometallurgical route will be a key player in the base and precious metals recoveries from e-waste. E-waste recycling will be a very important sector in the near future from economic and environmental perspectives.

Keywords: e-waste, WEEE, recycling, metal recovery, hydrometallurgy, pirometallurgy, biometallurgy

Procedia PDF Downloads 356
5233 A Review of Serious Games Characteristics: Common and Specific Aspects

Authors: B. Ben Amara, H. Mhiri Sellami

Abstract:

Serious games adoption is increasing in multiple fields, including health, education, and business. In the same way, many research studied serious games (SGs) for various purposes such as classification, positive impacts, or learning outcomes. Although most of these research examine SG characteristics (SGCs) for conducting their studies, to author’s best knowledge, there is no consensus about features neither in number not in the description. In this paper, we conduct a literature review to collect essential game attributes regardless of the application areas and the study objectives. Firstly, we aimed to define Common SGCs (CSGCs) that characterize the game aspect, by gathering features having the same meanings. Secondly, we tried to identify specific features related to the application area or to the study purpose as a serious aspect. The findings suggest that any type of SG can be defined by a number of CSGCs depicting the gaming side, such as adaptability and rules. In addition, we outlined a number of specific SGCs describing the 'serious' aspect, including specific needs of the domain and indented outcomes. In conclusion, our review showed that it is possible to bridge the research gap due to the lack of consensus by using CSGCs. Moreover, these features facilitate the design and development of successful serious games in any domain and provide a foundation for further research in this area.

Keywords: serious game characteristics, serious games common aspects, serious games features, serious games outcomes

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5232 Seasonal Influence on Environmental Indicators of Beach Waste

Authors: Marcus C. Garcia, Giselle C. Guimarães, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

Abstract:

The environmental indicators and the classification of beach waste are essential tools to diagnose the current situation and to indicate ways to improve the quality of this environment. The purpose of this paper was to perform a quali-quantitative analysis of the beach waste on the Curva da Jurema Beach (Espírito Santo - Brazil). Three transects were used with equidistant positioning over the total length of the beach for the solid waste collection. Solid wastes were later classified according to their use and primary raw material from the low and high summer season. During the low season, average values of 7.10 items.m-1, 18.22 g.m-1 and 0.91 g.m-2 were found for the whole beach, and transect 3 contributed the most waste, with the total sum of items equal to 999 (49%), a total mass of 5.62 kg and a total volume of 21.31 L. During the high summer season, average values of 8.22 items.m-1, 54.40 g.m-1 and 2.72 g.m-2 were found, with transect 2 contributing the most to the total sum with 1,212 items (53%), a total mass of 10.76 kg and a total volume of 51.99 L. Of the total collected, plastic materials represented 51.4% of the total number of items, 35.9% of the total mass and 68% of the total volume. The implementation of reactive and proactive measures is necessary so that the management of the solid wastes on Curva da Jurema Beach is in accordance with principles of sustainability.

Keywords: beach solid waste, environmental indicators, quali-quantitative analysis, waste management

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
5231 Hybrid Method for Smart Suggestions in Conversations for Online Marketplaces

Authors: Yasamin Rahimi, Ali Kamandi, Abbas Hoseini, Hesam Haddad

Abstract:

Online/offline chat is a convenient approach in the electronic markets of second-hand products in which potential customers would like to have more information about the products to fill the information gap between buyers and sellers. Online peer in peer market is trying to create artificial intelligence-based systems that help customers ask more informative questions in an easier way. In this article, we introduce a method for the question/answer system that we have developed for the top-ranked electronic market in Iran called Divar. When it comes to secondhand products, incomplete product information in a purchase will result in loss to the buyer. One way to balance buyer and seller information of a product is to help the buyer ask more informative questions when purchasing. Also, the short time to start and achieve the desired result of the conversation was one of our main goals, which was achieved according to A/B tests results. In this paper, we propose and evaluate a method for suggesting questions and answers in the messaging platform of the e-commerce website Divar. Creating such systems is to help users gather knowledge about the product easier and faster, All from the Divar database. We collected a dataset of around 2 million messages in Persian colloquial language, and for each category of product, we gathered 500K messages, of which only 2K were Tagged, and semi-supervised methods were used. In order to publish the proposed model to production, it is required to be fast enough to process 10 million messages daily on CPU processors. In order to reach that speed, in many subtasks, faster and simplistic models are preferred over deep neural models. The proposed method, which requires only a small amount of labeled data, is currently used in Divar production on CPU processors, and 15% of buyers and seller’s messages in conversations is directly chosen from our model output, and more than 27% of buyers have used this model suggestions in at least one daily conversation.

Keywords: smart reply, spell checker, information retrieval, intent detection, question answering

Procedia PDF Downloads 187
5230 Impact of Ethnic and Religious Identity on Coping Behavior in Young Adults: Cross-Cultural Research

Authors: Yuliya Kovalenko

Abstract:

Given the social nature of people, it is interesting to explore strategies of responding to psycho-traumatic situations in individuals of different ethnic and religious identity. This would allow to substantially expand the idea of human behavior in general, and coping behavior, in particular. This paper investigated the weighted impact of ethnic and religious identities on the patterns of coping behavior. This cross-cultural research empirically revealed intergroup differences in coping strategies and behavior in the samples of young students and teachers of different ethnic identities (Egyptians N=216 and Ukrainians N=109) and different religious identities (Egyptian Muslims N=147 and Christians, including Egyptian Christians N=68 and Ukrainian Christians N = 109). The empirical data were obtained using the questionnaires SACS and COPE. Statistical analysis and interpretation of the results were performed with IBM SPSS-23.0. It was found that, compared to the religious identity, the ethnic identity of the subjects appeared more predictive of coping behavior. It was shown that the constant exchange of information and the unity of biological and social contributed to a more homogeneous picture in the society where Christians and Muslims were integrated into a single cultural space. It was concluded that depending on their ethnic identity, individuals would form a specific hierarchy of coping strategies resulting in a specific pattern of coping with certain stressors. The Egyptian subjects revealed the following pattern of coping with various kinds of academic stress: 'seeking social support', 'problem solving', 'adapting', 'seeking information'. The coping pattern demonstrated by the Ukrainian subjects could be presented as 'seeking information', 'adapting', 'seeking social support', 'problem solving'. There was a tendency in the group of Egyptians to engage in more collectivist coping strategies (with the predominant coping strategy 'religious coping'), in contrast to the Ukrainians who displayed more individualistic coping strategies (with 'planning' and 'active coping' as the mostly used coping strategies). At the same time, it was obvious that Ukrainians should not be unambiguously attributed to the individualistic coping behavior due to their reliance on 'seeking social support' and 'social contact'. The final conclusion was also drawn from the peculiarities of developing religious identity, including religiosity, in Egyptians (formal religious education of both Muslims and Christians) and Ukrainians (more spontaneous process): Egyptians seem to learn to resort to the religious coping, which could be an indication that, in principle, it is possible and necessary to train individuals in desirable coping behavior.

Keywords: coping behavior, cross-cultural research, ethnic and religious identity, hierarchical pattern of coping

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5229 The Role of Knowledge and Institutional Challenges to the Adoption of Sustainable Urban Drainage in Saudi Arabia: Implications for Sustainable Environmental Development

Authors: Ali Alahmari

Abstract:

Saudi Arabia is facing increasing challenges in managing urban drainage, due to a combination of factors including climate change and urban expansion. Traditional drainage systems are unable to cope with demand, resulting in flooding and damage to property. Consequently, new ways of dealing with this issue need to be found and Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) appear to be a possible solution. This paper suggests that knowledge is a central issue in the adoption of Sustainable Urban Drainage approaches, as revealed through qualitative research with representative officials and professionals from key government departments and organisations in Riyadh. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with twenty-six participants. The interviews explored the challenges of adopting sustainable drainage approaches, and grounded theory analysis was used to examine the role of knowledge. However, a number of barriers have been identified with regard to the adoption of sustainable drainage approaches, such as the marginal status of sustainability in drainage decisions; lack of technical standards for other unconventional drainage solutions, and lack of consideration by decision makers of contributions from environmental and geographical studies. Due to centralisation, decision-making processes are complex and time-consuming, resulting in the discouragement of the adoption of new knowledge and approaches. Stakeholders with knowledge of sustainable approaches are often excluded from the hierarchical system of urban planning and drainage management. In addition, the multiplicity of actors involved in the implementation of the drainage system, as well as the different technical standards involved, often causes problems around coordination and cooperation. Although those with procedural and explicit knowledge have revealed a range of opportunities, such as a significant increase in government support for rainwater drainage in urban areas, they also identified a number of obstacles. These are mainly related to the lack of specialists in sustainable approaches, and a reluctance to involve external experts. Therefore, recommendations for overcoming some of these challenges are presented, which include enhancing the decision-making process through applying decentralisation and promoting awareness of sustainability through establishing educational and outreach programmes. This may serve to increase knowledge and facilitate the adoption of sustainable drainage approaches to promote sustainable development in the context of Saudi Arabia.

Keywords: climate change, decision-making processes, new knowledge and approaches, resistance to change, Saudi Arabia, SUDS, urban expansion

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5228 Comparative Evaluation of Root Uptake Models for Developing Moisture Uptake Based Irrigation Schedules for Crops

Authors: Vijay Shankar

Abstract:

In the era of water scarcity, effective use of water via irrigation requires good methods for determining crop water needs. Implementation of irrigation scheduling programs requires an accurate estimate of water use by the crop. Moisture depletion from the root zone represents the consequent crop evapotranspiration (ET). A numerical model for simulating soil water depletion in the root zone has been developed by taking into consideration soil physical properties, crop and climatic parameters. The governing differential equation for unsaturated flow of water in the soil is solved numerically using the fully implicit finite difference technique. The water uptake by plants is simulated by using three different sink functions. The non-linear model predictions are in good agreement with field data and thus it is possible to schedule irrigations more effectively. The present paper describes irrigation scheduling based on moisture depletion from the different layers of the root zone, obtained using different sink functions for three cash, oil and forage crops: cotton, safflower and barley, respectively. The soil is considered at a moisture level equal to field capacity prior to planting. Two soil moisture regimes are then imposed for irrigated treatment, one wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 50% of available soil water; and other wherein irrigation is applied whenever soil moisture content is reduced to 75% of available soil water. For both the soil moisture regimes it has been found that the model incorporating a non-linear sink function which provides best agreement of computed root zone moisture depletion with field data, is most effective in scheduling irrigations. Simulation runs with this moisture uptake function result in saving 27.3 to 45.5% & 18.7 to 37.5%, 12.5 to 25% % &16.7 to 33.3% and 16.7 to 33.3% & 20 to 40% irrigation water for cotton, safflower and barley respectively, under 50 & 75% moisture depletion regimes over other moisture uptake functions considered in the study. Simulation developed can be used for an optimized irrigation planning for different crops, choosing a suitable soil moisture regime depending upon the irrigation water availability and crop requirements.

Keywords: irrigation water, evapotranspiration, root uptake models, water scarcity

Procedia PDF Downloads 331
5227 150 KVA Multifunction Laboratory Test Unit Based on Power-Frequency Converter

Authors: Bartosz Kedra, Robert Malkowski

Abstract:

This paper provides description and presentation of laboratory test unit built basing on 150 kVA power frequency converter and Simulink RealTime platform. Assumptions, based on criteria which load and generator types may be simulated using discussed device, are presented, as well as control algorithm structure. As laboratory setup contains transformer with thyristor controlled tap changer, a wider scope of setup capabilities is presented. Information about used communication interface, data maintenance, and storage solution as well as used Simulink real-time features is presented. List and description of all measurements are provided. Potential of laboratory setup modifications is evaluated. For purposes of Rapid Control Prototyping, a dedicated environment was used Simulink RealTime. Therefore, load model Functional Unit Controller is based on a PC computer with I/O cards and Simulink RealTime software. Simulink RealTime was used to create real-time applications directly from Simulink models. In the next step, applications were loaded on a target computer connected to physical devices that provided opportunity to perform Hardware in the Loop (HIL) tests, as well as the mentioned Rapid Control Prototyping process. With Simulink RealTime, Simulink models were extended with I/O cards driver blocks that made automatic generation of real-time applications and performing interactive or automated runs on a dedicated target computer equipped with a real-time kernel, multicore CPU, and I/O cards possible. Results of performed laboratory tests are presented. Different load configurations are described and experimental results are presented. This includes simulation of under frequency load shedding, frequency and voltage dependent characteristics of groups of load units, time characteristics of group of different load units in a chosen area and arbitrary active and reactive power regulation basing on defined schedule.

Keywords: MATLAB, power converter, Simulink Real-Time, thyristor-controlled tap changer

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5226 Flux-Linkage Performance of DFIG Under Different Types of Faults and Locations

Authors: Mohamed Moustafa Mahmoud Sedky

Abstract:

The double-fed induction generator wind turbine has recently received a great attention. The steady state performance and response of double fed induction generator (DFIG) based wind turbine are now well understood. This paper presents the analysis of stator and rotor flux linkage dq models operation of DFIG under different faults and at different locations.

Keywords: double fed induction motor, wind energy, flux linkage, short circuit

Procedia PDF Downloads 517
5225 Indirect Intergranular Slip Transfer Modeling Through Continuum Dislocation Dynamics

Authors: A. Kalaei, A. H. W. Ngan

Abstract:

In this study, a mesoscopic continuum dislocation dynamics (CDD) approach is applied to simulate the intergranular slip transfer. The CDD scheme applies an efficient kinematics equation to model the evolution of the “all-dislocation density,” which is the line-length of dislocations of each character per unit volume. As the consideration of every dislocation line can be a limiter for the simulation of slip transfer in large scales with a large quantity of participating dislocations, a coarse-grained, extensive description of dislocations in terms of their density is utilized to resolve the effect of collective motion of dislocation lines. For dynamics closure, namely, to obtain the dislocation velocity from a velocity law involving the effective glide stress, mutual elastic interaction of dislocations is calculated using Mura’s equation after singularity removal at the core of dislocation lines. The developed scheme for slip transfer can therefore resolve the effects of the elastic interaction and pile-up of dislocations, which are important physics omitted in coarser models like crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEMs). Also, the length and timescales of the simulationareconsiderably larger than those in molecular dynamics (MD) and discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) models. The present work successfully simulates that, as dislocation density piles up in front of a grain boundary, the elastic stress on the other side increases, leading to dislocation nucleation and stress relaxation when the local glide stress exceeds the operation stress of dislocation sources seeded on the other side of the grain boundary. More importantly, the simulation verifiesa phenomenological misorientation factor often used by experimentalists, namely, the ease of slip transfer increases with the product of the cosines of misorientation angles of slip-plane normals and slip directions on either side of the grain boundary. Furthermore, to investigate the effects of the critical stress-intensity factor of the grain boundary, dislocation density sources are seeded at different distances from the grain boundary, and the critical applied stress to make slip transfer happen is studied.

Keywords: grain boundary, dislocation dynamics, slip transfer, elastic stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 123
5224 The System-Dynamic Model of Sustainable Development Based on the Energy Flow Analysis Approach

Authors: Inese Trusina, Elita Jermolajeva, Viktors Gopejenko, Viktor Abramov

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Global challenges require a transition from the existing linear economic model to a model that will consider nature as a life support system for the development of the way to social well-being in the frame of the ecological economics paradigm. The objective of the article is to present the results of the analysis of socio-economic systems in the context of sustainable development using the systems power (energy flows) changes analyzing method and structural Kaldor's model of GDP. In accordance with the principles of life's development and the ecological concept was formalized the tasks of sustainable development of the open, non-equilibrium, stable socio-economic systems were formalized using the energy flows analysis method. The methodology of monitoring sustainable development and level of life were considered during the research of interactions in the system ‘human - society - nature’ and using the theory of a unified system of space-time measurements. Based on the results of the analysis, the time series consumption energy and economic structural model were formulated for the level, degree and tendencies of sustainable development of the system and formalized the conditions of growth, degrowth and stationarity. In order to design the future state of socio-economic systems, a concept was formulated, and the first models of energy flows in systems were created using the tools of system dynamics. During the research, the authors calculated and used a system of universal indicators of sustainable development in the invariant coordinate system in energy units. In order to design the future state of socio-economic systems, a concept was formulated, and the first models of energy flows in systems were created using the tools of system dynamics. In the context of the proposed approach and methods, universal sustainable development indicators were calculated as models of development for the USA and China. The calculations used data from the World Bank database for the period from 1960 to 2019. Main results: 1) In accordance with the proposed approach, the heterogeneous energy resources of countries were reduced to universal power units, summarized and expressed as a unified number. 2) The values of universal indicators of the life’s level were obtained and compared with generally accepted similar indicators.3) The system of indicators in accordance with the requirements of sustainable development can be considered as a basis for monitoring development trends. This work can make a significant contribution to overcoming the difficulties of forming socio-economic policy, which is largely due to the lack of information that allows one to have an idea of the course and trends of socio-economic processes. The existing methods for the monitoring of the change do not fully meet this requirement since indicators have different units of measurement from different areas and, as a rule, are the reaction of socio-economic systems to actions already taken and, moreover, with a time shift. Currently, the inconsistency or inconsistency of measures of heterogeneous social, economic, environmental, and other systems is the reason that social systems are managed in isolation from the general laws of living systems, which can ultimately lead to a systemic crisis.

Keywords: sustainability, system dynamic, power, energy flows, development

Procedia PDF Downloads 58