Search results for: risk information weight (RIW)

Authors: Muhammad Fiaz, Muhammad Saqlain, Abid Mahmood, S. M. Saqlan Naqvi, Rizwan Aziz Qazi, Ghazala Kaukab Raja

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Background: Metabolic Syndrome is a clustering of multiple risk factors including central obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. These risk phenotypes of metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalent world-wide, Therefore we aimed to identify the frequency of risk phenotypes among metabolic syndrome subjects in local adult Pakistani population. Methods: Screening of subjects visiting out-patient department of medicine, Shaheed Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Medical University, Islamabad was performed to assess the occurrence of risk phenotypes among MetS subjects in Pakistani population. The Metabolic Syndrome was defined based on International Diabetes Federation (IDF) criteria. Anthropometric and biochemical assay results were recorded. Data was analyzed using SPSS software (16.0). Results: Our results showed that dyslipidemia (31.50%) and hyperglycemia (30.50%) was most population specific risk phenotypes of MetS. The results showed the order of association of metabolic risk phenotypes to MetS as follows hyperglycemia>dyslipidemia>obesity >hypertension. Conclusion: The hyperglycemia and dyslipidemia were found be the major risk phenotypes among the MetS subjects and have greater chances of deceloping MetS among Pakistani Population.

Keywords: dyslipidemia, hypertention, metabolic syndrome, obesity

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Authors: B. O. Oyebanji, I. O. Dudusola, C. T. Ademola, S. A. Olaniyan

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A 56 day study was conducted to evaluate the effect of dietary inclusion of Spondias mombin on hematological, growth, egg parameters and egg shell quality of Japanese quails, Cortunix cortunix japonica. One hundred birds were used for this study, and they were allocated randomly into 5 groups and replicated twice. Group 1 animals served as control without inclusion of extract, groups 2, 3, and 4 had 200 mg/kg, 400 mg/kg and 800 mg/kg inclusion of SM, group 5 had 600 mg/kg of vitamin C respectively. The birds were weighed weekly to determine weight change, the blood parameters analyzed at the completion of the experiment were PCV, Hb, RBC WBC, differential WBC count, MCH, MCH, and MCV were afterwards calculated from these parameters. 5 eggs were collected from each group and egg weight, eggshell weight, eggshell diameter, yolk weight, albumen weight, yolk diameter, yolk height, albumen percentage, yolk percentage and shell percentage were determined. There was no significant difference among the group for the hematological parameters measured and calculated. The egg weight and albumen weight of quails on 800 mg/kg was highest of all the groups, all other egg parameters measured showed no significant difference. The birds supplemented with Vitamin C had the highest weight gain (40.8±2.5 g) and the lowest feed conversion ratio (2.25). There was no mortality recorded in all the groups except in the SM800 group with 10% mortality. It can be concluded from this experiment that Vitamin C supplementation has positive effect on quail production in humid tropics and the inclusion of Spondias mombin leaf extract has a dose-dependent toxicity in quails.

Keywords: hematology, quails, Spondias mombin, vitamin C

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Authors: Jamal Fayazi, Farhad Anoosheh, Mohammad R. Ghorbani, Ali R. Paydar

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In this study, to determine the best non-linear regression model describing the growth curve of native poultry, 9657 chicks of generations 18, 19, and 20 raised in Mazandaran breeding center were used. Fowls and roosters of this center distributed in south of Caspian Sea region. To estimate the genetic variability of none linear regression parameter of growth traits, a Gibbs sampling of Bayesian analysis was used. The average body weight traits in the first day (BW1), eighth week (BW8) and twelfth week (BW12) were respectively estimated as 36.05, 763.03, and 1194.98 grams. Based on the coefficient of determination, mean squares of error and Akaike information criteria, Gompertz model was selected as the best growth descriptive function. In Gompertz model, the estimated values for the parameters of maturity weight (A), integration constant (B) and maturity rate (K) were estimated to be 1734.4, 3.986, and 0.282, respectively. The direct heritability of BW1, BW8 and BW12 were respectively reported to be as 0.378, 0.3709, 0.316, 0.389, 0.43, 0.09 and 0.07. With regard to estimated parameters, the results of this study indicated that there is a possibility to improve some property of growth curve using appropriate selection programs.

Keywords: direct heritability, Gompertz, growth traits, maturity weight, native poultry

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Authors: Alan Wan

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In recent years, the body of literature on frequentist model averaging in statistics has grown significantly. Most of this work focuses on models with different mean structures but leaves out the variance consideration. In this paper, we consider a regression model with multiplicative heteroscedasticity and develop a model averaging method that combines maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters in both the mean and variance functions of the model. Our weight choice criterion is based on a minimisation of a plug-in estimator of the model average estimator's squared prediction risk. We prove that the new estimator possesses an asymptotic optimality property. Our investigation of finite-sample performance by simulations demonstrates that the new estimator frequently exhibits very favourable properties compared to some existing heteroscedasticity-robust model average estimators. The model averaging method hedges against the selection of very bad models and serves as a remedy to variance function misspecification, which often discourages practitioners from modeling heteroscedasticity altogether. The proposed model average estimator is applied to the analysis of two real data sets.

Keywords: heteroscedasticity-robust, model averaging, multiplicative heteroscedasticity, plug-in, squared prediction risk

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Authors: Meghana Pandit, Abhishek Chakraborty

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There are a multitude of factors that influence the clinical success of bariatric surgery. This study seeks to determine the efficacy of preoperative weight management education. The Food and Fitness Program at Mount Sinai serves to educate patients on topics such as stress management, sleep habits, body image, nutrition, and exercise 5-6 months before their surgeries to slowly decrease their weight. Each month, patients are weighed, and a different topic is presented. To evaluate the longitudinal effects of these lectures, patient’s weights are evaluated at the first appointment, before an informative lecture is presented. Weights are then reevaluated at the last appointment before the surgery. The weights were statistically analyzed using a paired t-test and the results demonstrated a statistically significant difference (p < .0001, n=55). Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the education paradigm employed successfully empowered patients to maintain and reduce their gross BMI before clinical intervention.

Keywords: bariatric, surgery, weight, education

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Authors: David Nantes, George Gilbert

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There are a lot of risks that might crop up as a tunneling project develops, and it's crucial to be aware of them. Due to the unexpected nature of tunneling projects and the interconnectedness of risk occurrences, the risk assessment approach presents a significant challenge. The purpose of this study is to provide a hybrid FDEMATEL-ANP model to help prioritize risks during tunnel construction projects. The ambiguity in expert judgments and the relative severity of interdependencies across risk occurrences are both taken into consideration by this model, thanks to the Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FDEMATEL). The Analytic Network Process (ANP) method is used to rank priorities and assess project risks. The authors provide a case study of a subway tunneling construction project to back up the validity of their methodology. The results showed that the proposed method successfully isolated key risk factors and elucidated their interplay in the case study. The proposed method has the potential to become a helpful resource for evaluating dangers associated with tunnel construction projects.

Keywords: risk, prioritization, FDEMATEL, ANP, tunneling construction projects

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Authors: Amina Smai, Fairouz Haddadj, Habiba Saadi-Idouhar, Meriem Aissi, Safia Zenia, Salaheddine Doumandji

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Coccidiosis is a very common intestinal parasitic disease caused by a worldwide distributed protozoan of the genus Eimeria. This disease is very common in young birds beyond the second week of life, especially in land-based breeding. The study was carried out in a hunting center of Zeralda located in the north-east of Algiers. The objective of our work is to study the evolution of coccidiosis in quails from 1 to 35 days old by collecting their droppings daily. These are analyzed in the laboratory using the flotation method and the Mac Master one to count coccidia. Weight changes are taken into account as well as mortality in parallel with certain zootechnical parameters such as density. The species of coccidia recovered is Eimeria coturnicis. The results showed that there is an average evolution of mortality of individuals with a rate of 13.33% due to the presence of coccidia with a significant regression (p=0.031). The weight of the quails increases with the age of the animal with a rapid growth rate from the 3rd week onwards. Indeed, the statistical analysis reveals that the evolution of the number did not affect the evolution of the weight (p=0.70) and the GMQ (R=0.52).

Keywords: coccidiosis, Coturnix japonica, daily average gain, weight

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Authors: Aritra Das, Tanmay Mahapatra, Prabir Maharana, Sridhar Srikantiah

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In the absence of adequate well-equipped neonatal-care facilities serving rural Bihar, India, the practice of essential home-based newborn-care remains critically important for reduction of neonatal and infant mortality, especially among pre-term and small-for-gestational-age (Low-birth-weight) newborns. To improve the child health parameters in Bihar, ‘Very-Low-Birth-Weight (vLBW) Tracking’ intervention is being conducted by CARE India, since 2015, targeting public facility-delivered newborns weighing ≤2000g at birth, to improve their identification and provision of immediate post-natal care. To assess the effectiveness of the intervention, 200 public health facilities were randomly selected from all functional public-sector delivery points in Bihar and various outcomes were tracked among the neonates born there. Thus far, one pre-intervention (Feb-Apr’2015-born neonates) and three post-intervention (for Sep-Oct’2015, Sep-Oct’2016 and Sep-Oct’2017-born children) follow-up studies were conducted. In each round, interviews were conducted with the mothers/caregivers of successfully-tracked children to understand outcome, service-coverage and care-seeking during the neonatal period. Data from 171 matched facilities common across all rounds were analyzed using SAS-9.4. Identification of neonates with birth-weight ≤ 2000g improved from 2% at baseline to 3.3%-4% during post-intervention. All indicators pertaining to post-natal home-visits by frontline-workers (FLWs) improved. Significant improvements between baseline and post-intervention rounds were also noted regarding mothers being informed about ‘weak’ child – at the facility (R1 = 25 to R4 = 50%) and at home by FLW (R1 = 19%, to R4 = 30%). Practice of ‘Kangaroo-Mother-Care (KMC)’– an important component of essential newborn care – showed significant improvement in postintervention period compared to baseline in both facility (R1 = 15% to R4 = 31%) and home (R1 = 10% to R4=29%). Increasing trend was noted regarding detection and birth weight-recording of the extremely low-birth-weight newborns (< 1500 g) showed an increasing trend. Moreover, there was a downward trend in mortality across rounds, in each birth-weight strata (< 1500g, 1500-1799g and >= 1800g). After adjustment for the differential distribution of birth-weights, mortality was found to decline significantly from R1 (22.11%) to R4 (11.87%). Significantly declining trend was also observed for both early and late neonatal mortality and morbidities. Multiple regression analysis identified - birth during immediate post-intervention phase as well as that during the maintenance phase, birth weight > 1500g, children of low-parity mothers, receiving visit from FLW in the first week and/or receiving advice on extra care from FLW as predictors of survival during neonatal period among vLBW newborns. vLBW tracking was found to be a successful and sustainable intervention and has already been handed over to the Government.

Keywords: weak newborn tracking, very low birth weight babies, newborn care, community response

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Authors: Mukul Kumar Srivastava, Sumit Basu

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Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites find wide use in the space and aerospace industries primarily due to their favourable strength-to-weight ratios. However, in spite of the impressive mechanical properties, their ability to shield sophisticated electronics from electromagnetic interference (EMI) is rather limited. As a result, metallic wire meshes or metal foils are often embedded in CFRP composites to provide adequate EMI shielding. This comes at additional manufacturing cost, increased weight and, particularly in cases of aluminium, increased risk of galvanic corrosion in the presence of moisture. In this work, we will explore ways of enhancing EMI shielding of CFRP laminates in the 8-12 GHz range (the so-called X-band), without compromising their mechanical and fracture properties, through minimal modifications to their current well-established fabrication protocol. The computational-experimental study of EMI shielding in CFRP laminates will focus on the effects of incorporating multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWCNT) and conducting nanoparticles in different ways in the resin and/or carbon fibers. We will also explore the possibility of utilising the excellent absorbing properties of MWCNT reinforced polymer foams to enhance the overall EMI shielding capabilities.

Keywords: EMI shielding, X-band, CFRP, MWCNT

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Authors: Muhammad Ihsan Andi Dagong, Cece Sumantri, Ronny Rachman Noor, Rachmat Herman, Mohamad Yamin

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Calpastatin involved in various physiological processes in the body such as the protein turnover, growth, fusion and mioblast migration. Thus, allegedly Calpastatin gene diversity (CAST) have an association with growth and potential use as candidate genes for growth trait. This study aims to identify the association between the genetic diversity of CAST gene with some growth properties such as body dimention (morphometric), body weight and daily weight gain in sheep. A total of 157 heads of Thin Tail Sheep (TTS) reared intensively for fattening purposes in the uniform environmental conditions. Overall sheep used were male, and maintained for 3 months. The parameters of growth properties were measured among others: body weight gain (ADG) (g/head / day), body weight (kg), body length (cm), chest circumference (cm), height (cm). All the sheep were genotyped by using PCR-SSCP (single strand conformational polymorphism) methods. CAST gene in locus fragment intron 5 - exon 6 were amplified with a predicted length of about 254 bp PCR products. Then the sheep were stratified based on their CAST genotypes. The result of this research showed that no association were found between the CAST gene variations with morphometric body weight, but there was a significant association with daily body weight gain (ADG) in sheep observed. CAST-23 and CAST-33 genotypes has higher average daily gain than other genotypes. CAST-23 and CAST-33 genotypes that carrying the CAST-2 and CAST-3 alleles potential to be used in the selection of the nature of the growth trait of the TTS sheep.

Keywords: body weight, calpastatin, genotype, growth trait, thin tail sheep

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Authors: Jie Liu, Wei Wei, Chun-Ping Chang

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Using a sample of 110 countries over the period 1984-2013, this paper examines the impacts of country risks on choosing a specific exchange rate regime (first by utilizing the Levy-Yeyati and Sturzenegger de facto classification and then robusting it by the IMF de jure measurement) relative to other regimes via the panel multinomial logit approach. Empirical findings are as follows. First, in the full samples case we provide evidence that government is more likely to implement a flexible regime, but less likely to adopt a fixed regime, under a low level of composite and financial risk. Second, we find that Eurozone countries are more likely to choose a fixed exchange rate regime with a decrease in the level of country risk and favor a flexible regime in response to a shock from an increase of risk, which is opposite to non-Eurozone countries. Third, we note that high-risk countries are more likely to choose a fixed regime with a low level of composite and political risk in the government, but do not adjust the exchange rate regime as a shock absorber when facing economic and financial risks. It is interesting to see that those countries with relatively low risk display almost opposite results versus high-risk economies. Overall, we believe that it is critically important to account for political economy variables in a government’s exchange rate policy decisions, especially for country risks. All results are robust to the panel ordered probit model.

Keywords: country risk, political economy, exchange rate regimes, shock absorber

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Authors: Jong-Yeon Kim, Kwang-Bok Shin, Tae-Hwan Ko

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The purpose of this paper is to suggest a weight-reduction design method for the aluminum extrusion carbody structure of a double deck high-speed train using size optimization method. The size optimization method was used to optimize thicknesses of skin and rib of the aluminum extrusion for the carbody structure. Thicknesses of 1st underframe, 2nd underframe, solebar and roof frame were selected by design variables in order to conduct size optimization. The results of the size optimization analysis showed that the weight of the aluminum extrusion could be reduced by 0.61 tons (5.60%) compared to the weight of the original carbody structure.

Keywords: double deck high-speed train, size optimization, weigh-reduction, aluminum extrusion

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

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The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Hacer Yeldan, Erhan Akamca, Sedat Gündogdu

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Length-Weight and Length-length relationship were estimated of 14 species Sparidae (Boops boops, Diplodus annularis, Diplodus cervinus, Dipladus puntazzo, Diplodus sargus, Diplodus vulgaris, Lithognathus mormyrus, Oblada melanura, Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, Pagrus auriga, Pagrus caeruleostictus, Sarpa salpa, Sparus aurata) sampled from in the Northeastern Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey, Iskenderun Bay. Samples were collected from July 2014 to June 2015, using bottom trawl and trammel net into three different depth; 0-10 m, 10-20 m, 20-50m. Length-length relationships were determined size measurements: standard length (SL) and fork length (FL) to total length (TL) for fish species. The relationships between TL, FL and TL, SL were all linear. The values of the exponent b of the length-weight relationships ranged between 2.685 and 3.473. The type of growth for fish species was algometric growth.

Keywords: Sparidae, Iskenderun bay, length-length, length-weight relationships

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Authors: Guilan Huang

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In 2013 and 2014, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) collected data from selected fast food restaurants and full service restaurants for tracking changes in the occurrence of foodborne illness risk factors. This paper discussed how we customized spatial random sampling method by considering financial position and availability of FDA resources, and how we enriched restaurants data with location. Location information of restaurants provides opportunity for quantitatively determining random sampling within non-government units (e.g.: 240 kilometers around each data-collector). Spatial analysis also could optimize data-collectors’ work plans and resource allocation. Spatial analytic and processing platform helped us handling the spatial random sampling challenges. Our method fits in FDA’s ability to pinpoint features of foodservice establishments, and reduced both time and expense on data collection.

Keywords: geospatial technology, restaurant, retail food risk factor study, spatially random sampling

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Authors: Vyacheslav S. Semenov, Tamara A. Rozovskaya

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The paper is devoted to the problem of the development of dry light-weight mixtures with hollow ceramics microspheres (CMS) for masonry works. For the one-layer fencing structures including effective masonry units, the use of “warm” masonry mortars is necessary. The used light-weight masonry mortars do not provide the brand strength and thermal uniformity of the fencing structures because of high average density. The CMS are effective light-weight aggregate for such mortars. The influence of the dosage of CMS on the physics-and-mechanics parameters and the technological properties of the masonry mortars were studied. The optimal mixture compositions have been obtained and their main properties have been determined. The influence of an air-entraining admixture and redispersible polymer powders on the average density and physics-and-mechanics parameters of the masonry mortars were studied. The optimal compositions of light-weight dry masonry mixtures with CMS have been suggested.

Keywords: dry mortar mixtures, light-weight dry mixtures, hollow ceramics microspheres, masonry mortars, “warm” mortars, air-entraining admixture, redispersible polymer powders

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Authors: Taeho Park, Ming Zhou, Sangryul Shim

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With the emergence of the global economy, today’s business environment is getting more competitive than ever in the past. And many supply chain (SC) strategies and operations have significantly been altered over the past decade to overcome more complexities and risks imposed onto the global business. First, offshoring and outsourcing are more adopted as operational strategies. Manufacturing continues to move to better locations for enhancing competitiveness. Second, international operations are a challenge to a company’s SC system. Third, the products traded in the SC system are not just physical goods, but also digital goods (e.g., software, e-books, music, video materials). There are three main flows involved in fulfilling the activities in the SC system: physical flow, information flow, and financial flow. An advance of the Internet and electronic communication technologies has enabled companies to perform the flows of SC activities in electronic formats, resulting in the advent of an electronic supply chain management (e-SCM) system. A SC system for digital goods is somewhat different from the supply chain system for physical goods. However, it involves many similar or identical SC activities and flows. For example, like the production of physical goods, many third parties are also involved in producing digital goods for the production of components and even final products. This research aims at identifying process flows of both physical and digital goods in a SC system, and then investigating all risk elements involved in the physical, information, and financial flows during the fulfilment of SC activities. There are many risks inherent in the e-SCM system. Some risks may have severe impact on a company’s business, and some occur frequently but are not detrimental enough to jeopardize a company. Thus, companies should assess the impact and frequency of those risks, and then prioritize them in terms of their severity, frequency, budget, and time in order to be carefully maintained. We found risks involved in the global trading of physical and digital goods in four different categories: environmental risk, strategic risk, technological risk, and operational risk. And then the significance of those risks was investigated through a survey. The survey asked companies about the frequency and severity of the identified risks. They were also asked whether they had faced those risks in the past. Since the characteristics and supply chain flows of digital goods are varying industry by industry and country by country, it is more meaningful and useful to analyze risks by industry and country. To this end, more data in each industry sector and country should be collected, which could be accomplished in the future research.

Keywords: digital goods, e-SCM, risk analysis, supply chain flows

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Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

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Authors: Ping Jiang, Yunyan Xing, Dian Zhang, Bo Guo

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The reliability qualification test (RQT) is widely used in product development to qualify whether the product meets predetermined reliability requirements, which are mainly described in terms of reliability indices, for example, MTBF (Mean Time Between Failures). It is widely exercised in product development. In engineering practices, RQT plans are mandatorily referred to standards, such as MIL-STD-781 or GJB899A-2009. But these conventional RQT plans in standards are not preferred, as the test plans often require long test times or have high risks for both producer and consumer due to the fact that the methods in the standards only use the test data of the product itself. And the standards usually assume that the product is exponentially distributed, which is not suitable for a complex product other than electronics. So it is desirable to develop an RQT plan derivation method that safely shortens test time while keeping the two risks under control. To meet this end, for the product whose lifetime follows Weibull distribution, an RQT plan derivation method is developed. The merit of the method is that expert judgment is taken into account. This is implemented by applying the Bayesian method, which translates the expert judgment into prior information on product reliability. Then producer’s risk and the consumer’s risk are calculated accordingly. The procedures to derive RQT plans are also proposed in this paper. As extra information and expert judgment are added to the derivation, the derived test plans have the potential to shorten the required test time and have satisfactory low risks for both producer and consumer, compared with conventional test plans. A case study is provided to prove that when using expert judgment in deriving product test plans, the proposed method is capable of finding ideal test plans that not only reduce the two risks but also shorten the required test time as well.

Keywords: expert judgment, reliability qualification test, test plan derivation, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk

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Authors: Nasiruddin Khan, Saud Iqbal

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Arabian Gulf region has undergone enormous development due to oil boom resulting in overwhelming changes in the lifestyle of the population over the past few decades. This study focused on food consumption patterns of Omani university students. Information, on anthropometric measurements, dietary intakes (measured by a food frequency questionnaire) of students was recorded. Anthropometric data revealed 62.5% of the subjects to be of normal weight and approximately 25% being overweight. Female students appeared to be more weight conscious than males. Dietary intakes in terms of servings (Mean ± S.D) per day among normal weight (BMI 18.5 – 24.9) males vs. females were approximately; cereals (7.5 ± 5.9 vs. 4.9 ± 2.9 servings), meat and alternatives (1.9 ± 0.9 vs. 1.5 ± 0.9 servings), dairy foods (0.9 ± 0.8 vs. 1.1 ± 0.9 servings) per day, respectively. Overall 55.3% of both males (average 1.9 servings) as well as females (average 1.7 servings) had severely inadequate intakes of vegetables on a daily basis as per the food guide pyramid recommendations. Only the fruit group intakes were adequate in about 70% of the population. Adequate intakes of dairy and meat and alternatives group were found in only 22% and 32% of the subjects, respectively. These results indicate a significant influence of a modern lifestyle on dietary habits and food selection of the target population.

Keywords: dietary pattern, food guide pyramid, lifestyle, Oman

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Authors: N. W. Paul, M. Banerjee

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Discussing the nexus between global health policy and local practices, this article addresses the recent Ebola outbreak as a role model for narrative co-constructions of epidemic risk. We will demonstrate in how far a theory-driven and methodologically rooted analysis of narrativity can help to improve mechanisms of prevention and intervention whenever epidemic risk needs to be addressed locally in order to contribute to global health. Analyzing the narrative transformation of Ebola, we will also address issues of transcultural problem-solving and of normative questions at stake. In this regard, we seek to contribute to a better understanding of a key question of global health and justice as well as to the underlying ethical questions. By highlighting and analyzing the functions of narratives, this paper provides a translational approach to refine our practices by which we address epidemic risk, be it on the national, the transnational or the global scale.

Keywords: ebola, epidemic risk, medical ethics, medical humanities

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Authors: Sarah Hamdan Al-Jahdali, Khaled Alsaad, Abdullah Al-Sayyari

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Objectives: To study the prevalence, clinicopathological features, risk factors and outcome of biopsy proven polyoma (BK) virus infection among Saudi kidney transplant recipients and compare them to negative BK virus group. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the charts of all the patients with biopsy-proven polyoma (BK) virus infection in King Abdulaziz Medical City in Riyadh between 2005 and 2011. The details of clinical presentation, the indication for kidney biopsy, the laboratory findings at presentation, the natural history of the disease, thepathological findings, the prognosis as well as the response to therapy were all recorded. Results: Kidney biopsy was performed in 37 cases of unexplained graft dysfunction. BK virus was found in 10 (27%). Out of those 10, 3 (30%) ended with graft failure. BK virus occurred in all patients who received ATG induction therapy 100% versus 59.3% in the non BK virus patients (p=0.06). Furthermore, the risk of BK virus was much less in those who received acyclovir as an anti-viral prophylaxis as compared to those who did not receive it (p=0.01). Also, patients with BK virus weighed much less (mean 46.7±20.6 Kgs) than those without BK virus at time of transplantation (mean 64.3±12.1). Graft survival was better among deceased donor kidneys compared to living ones (P=0.016) and with older age (P=0.005). Conclusion: Our findings suggest the involvement of ATG induction therapy, the lack of antiviral prophylaxis therapy and lower weight at transplant as significant risk factors for the development of BK virus infection.

Keywords: BKVAN, BKV, kidney transpant, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Elham Bagherzadeh, Mohammad Fadaee, Rouhollah Keykhosravi

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In order to survey the nitrogen use efficiency in corn, the experimental plot in a randomized complete block design 2014 agricultural farm was Islamic Azad University of Karaj. The main factor was four levels of nitrogen fertilizer (respectively control, 150, 200 and 250 kg nitrogen fertilizer) and subplots consisted two levels of superabsorbent polymer Stockosorb (use, do not use). Analysis of variance is showed that different nitrogen levels and different superabsorbent of levels statistically significant. Comparisons average also showed there is a significant difference between use and non-use of superabsorbent. The results showed the interactions nitrogen and SAP by one percent level has a significant and effect on Fresh weight per plant, plant dry weight, biological yield, harvest index, cob diameter, cob dry weight, leaf width, leaf area were at the level of five percent statistical significant effect on Ear weight and grain yield.

Keywords: corn, nitrogen, comparison, biological yield

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Authors: Chanya Inprasit, Ching-Liang Hsieh, Yi-Wen Lin

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Obesity (OB) is a hazardous global health problem that has been increasing in prevalence, more severely in last decade. It is the mainly resultant from the imbalance between food consumption and energy expenditure, which is concordant with a modern lifestyle, implying an increase in calories with poorer quality of food intake accompanied by a decrease in physical activities. Obesity does not concern the appearance only but is also a major factor contributing to poor physiology, psychology, society and economic issues. Moreover, OB induces low-grade inflammation in the body through the regulatory effect it enacts on the adipocyte function. Various alternative treatments were investigated for body weight control, including Acupoint Catgut Embedding (ACE). ACE is the implantation of absorbable catgut sutures at specific acupoints, displaying durable and potent stimulation and thereby reducing the treatment frequency. Our study utilized a mouse model to exclude any psychological factors of OB and ACE treatment. High-fat diet and body weight were measured once a week before subjects in ACE and Sham group received the ACE treatment or placebo treatment. We hypothesized that ACE can control body weight through the interaction of the TRPV1 pathways, as TRPV1 accordingly responds to inflammatory factors. The results of body weight variation show a significant decrease in body weight in ACE group compared with the baseline of control and Sham group. Meanwhile, converse results were explored in TRPV1 knockout mice, where a significant maintenance of normal body weight throughout the experiment period was observed. There was no significant difference in food consumption of each group. These finding indicated that TRPV1 pathways and its associated pathways may be involved in the maintenance of body weight, which can be controlled by ACE treatment of genetic manipulation.

Keywords: acupoint catgut embedding, obesity, hypothalamus, TRPV1

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

Abstract:

Many of Public Private Partnership (PPP) are developed based on a public project is to be awarded to a private party within a one contractual framework. PPP project risks typically include the development and construction of a new asset as well as its operation. Certainly the most severe consequences of risks through the construction period are price and time overruns. These events are among the most generally used situation in value for money analysis risks. The sources of risk change during the time in PPP project. In traditional procurement, the public sector usually has to cover all prices suffering from these risks. At least there is plenty to suggest that price suffering is a norm in some of the projects that are delivered under traditional procurement. This paper will find the impact of exogenous risk factors into actual construction price into PPP projects. The paper will present a brief literature review on PPP risk pricing strategies and then using system dynamics (SD) to analyses of the risks associated with the estimated project price. Based on the finding from these analyses a risk pricing association model is presented and discussed. The paper concludes with thoughts for future research.

Keywords: public private partnership (PPP), risk, risk pricing, system dynamics (SD)

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Authors: Magid Maatallah

Abstract:

The problem is, investment management in modern conditions boils down to risk management which is very underdeveloped in Islamic financial theory and practice. Add to this the fact that, in Islamic perception, this is one of the areas of conventional finance in need of drastic reforms. This need was recently underlined by the story of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM ), ( told by Roger Lowenstein in his book, When Genius Failed, Random House, 2000 ). So we face a double challenge, to develop Islamic techniques of risk management and to see that these new techniques are free from the ills with which conventional methods are suffering. This is different from the challenge faced in the middle of twentieth century, to develop a method of financial intermediation free of interest.Risk was always there, especially in business. But industrialization brought risks unknown in trade and agriculture. Industrial production often involves long periods of time .The longer the period of production the more the uncertainty. The scope of the market has expanded to cover the whole world, introducing new kinds of risk. More than a thousand years ago, when Islamic laws were being written, the nature and scope of risk and uncertainty was different. However, something can still be learnt which, in combination with the modern experience, should enable us to realize the Shariah objectives of justice, fairness and efficiency.

Keywords: financial markets, Islamic framework, risk management, investment

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Authors: Hotlan Siagian, Han Tae Hee

Abstract:

This study aims to examine the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement on the supply chain risk management through buyer-supplier relationship. The population of the research is 44 Korean companies domiciled in East and Central Java of Indonesia. The respondent consists of a top management level from each company. Data collection used a questionnaire designed with five-item Likert scale. Collected data were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM) technique with SmartPLS software version 3.0 to examine the hypotheses. The result revealed that supplier trust has an effect on supply chain risk management, top management involvement affects supply chain risk management, supplier trust influences buyer-supplier relationship, top management involvement affects the buyer-supplier relationship, and buyer-supplier relationship affects supply chain risk management. The last finding is that buyer-supplier relationship empirically mediates the effect of supplier trust and top management involvement.

Keywords: buyer supplier relationship, supplier trust, supply chain risk management, top management involvement

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Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

Abstract:

The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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Authors: Mohamed Abdelfattah Meawad Hamza, H. A. Bosila, M. A. Zewil

Abstract:

This research aims to study the effect of different sources of elicitors for increase growth and active ingredients in callus of Echinacea purpurea plant. Callus that have been obtained from leaf explant, was used to conduct the following studies. A study of the impact of both the phenylalanine and tyrosine (50, 100,150 and 200 mg/l.) individually and casein hydrolysate (100, 200 and 300 mg/l.) supplemented to MS medium. Results show that Casein hydrolysate 100 mg/l. has achieved the better results in both callus fresh weight 1.881 g/explant after 8 weeks of the incubation period and callus growth rate 0.398 g/explant after 6 weeks of the incubation period, while gave add 200 mg/l. The best results in total carbohydrate 2.444 mg/ 100 mg dry weight. Phenylalanine 150 mg/l. has achieved the best results in callus dry weight 0.156 g/explant after 8 weeks of incubation period. Tyrosine 200 mg/l. recorded the best result for positive production of caffeic acid 0.460 mg/ 100 mg dry weight after 4 weeks incubation period.

Keywords: tissue culture, echinacea, tyrosine, casein

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Authors: Oladele V. Adeniyi, B. Longo-Mbenza, Daniel T. Goon

Abstract:

Background: Lipids are often low or in the normal ranges and controversial in the atherogenesis among Black Africans. The effect of the severity of obesity on some traditional and novel cardiovascular disease risk factors is unclear before and after a diet and exercise maintenance programme among obese black South Africans with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Therefore, this study aimed to identify the risk factors to discriminate obesity classes among patients with T2DM before and after a diet and exercise programme. Methods: This interventional cohort of Black South Africans with T2DM was followed by a very – low calorie diet and exercise programme in Mthatha, between August and November 2013. Gender, age, and the levels of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, monthly income, daily frequency of meals, blood random plasma glucose (RPG), serum creatinine, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), LDL –C, HDL – C, Non-HDL, ratios of TC/HDL, TG/HDL, and LDL/HDL were recorded. Univariate analysis (ANOVA) and multivariate discriminant analysis were performed to separate obesity classes: normal weight (BMI = 18.5 – 24.9 kg/m2), overweight (BMI = 25 – 29.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 1 (BMI = 30 – 34.9 kg/m2), obesity Class 2 (BMI = 35 – 39.9 kg/m2), and obesity Class 3 (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2). Results: At the baseline (1st Month September), all 327 patients were overweight/obese: 19.6% overweight, 42.8% obese class 1, 22.3% obese class 2, and 15.3% obese class 3. In discriminant analysis, only systolic blood pressure (SBP with positive association) and LDL/HDL ratio (negative association) significantly separated increasing obesity classes. At the post – evaluation (3rd Month November), out of all 327 patients, 19.9%, 19.3%, 37.6%, 15%, and 8.3% had normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1, obesity class 2, and obesity class 3, respectively. There was a significant negative association between serum creatinine and increase in BMI. In discriminant analysis, only age (positive association), SBP (U – shaped relationship), monthly income (inverted U – shaped association), daily frequency of meals (positive association), and LDL/HDL ratio (positive association) classified significantly increasing obesity classes. Conclusion: There is an epidemic of diabesity (Obesity + T2DM) in this Black South Africans with some weight loss. Further studies are needed to understand positive or negative linear correlations and paradoxical curvilinear correlations between these markers and increase in BMI among black South African T2DM patients.

Keywords: atherogenic dyslipidaemia, dietary interventions, obesity, south africans

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